Google began a marathon battle in a federal court on Tuesday to fight accusations from the US government that it acted unlawfully to become the world's preeminent search engine, this will go on for a while.. McCarthy gambles on Biden impeachment probe as shutdown looms >>> politics at its worse , bringing media focus on to us, so that we all forget about Trump and the real issues on macro side, inflation, slow growth, debt etc, Trump being impeached twice.. European Central Bank is set for hawkish pause as the economy turns south California fast food workers to get $20 minimum wage under new deal between labor and the industry With UAW strike looming, Biden must choose between his union allies and US economy >>> The UAW is demanding a 46% pay hike over four years , a 32-hour work week (for full pay), the end of a tiered pay system for newer workers, as well as the return of pensions and retiree health care. It’s a big ask, and the union doesn’t seem interested in giving in on any of its demands... when it starts at one end it'll spread everywhere, everyone will want a big pay increase ! Singapore Billion Dollar money laundering case exposes gaps in defenses and Singapore says laundering probe wasn’t opened on China’s request.. really?.. PBOC to tighten scrutiny on bulk dollar purchases of $50 million and above >>> biggest economy in the world ?...something's very wrong out there if they have to do it....(cap controls basically, lots of the big money already left long time ago towards Sing- which now has its own issues..) The Chinese property sector has emerged as the biggest threat to the stability of the global economy, fuelling a “dramatic shift” out of emerging market stocks and into the US , according to a closely watched investor survey Sen. Joe Manchin: Government debt is alarming and our responsibility is to get financial house in order >> how ? cut spending or raise taxes, or both ? not very likely from any side going into an election year, so inflate your way out of trouble! Oil's rally is making some analysts worried . They've seen this movie before and it can be highly disruptive, from pushing Fed policy tighter to limiting discretionary spending. “OPEC has to consider the effect on the macro market.” “I think the question is not only should Elon Musk have this much power, but how come he got this much power?” Isaacson EC Pres. von der Leyen: Global markets are flooded by cheaper Chinese electric cars “We pursue a zero-tolerance strategy towards black money," declared Swiss Bankers Association CEO Roman Studer Lithium : $1.5 Trillion Dollars Worth Of 'White Gold' Found In Supervolcano On Nevada-Oregon Border U.S judge denies FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's request to be realesed from jail pending trial >>> note : ''poor Wifi is not a valid reason for early release' Markets : WTI crude's 50dma crossing above the 200dma , which is pretty rare and bullish momentum The percentage of NASDAQ stocks trading above their respective 200dma is 33% (only..? usual conclusion about breath, magnificent 7's etc). NVDA which everyone follows, dipped below 50dma for 3rd straight month >>> Investors (ETF's..) are hiding out in fewer and fewer names Equity market grinding lower, 10's UST 4.30 again , crude pushing infl exp higher, stagflation signs, debt etc USDollar firm(er) although USDCNH off highs, not by much, GBP takes another leg lower (UK growth down 0.5% in July - to be probably revised once strike finish..), CABLE through 1.2450 area signals more downside to come U.S CPI up next (core expected to drift down from 4.7 to 4.3%) and ECB tom (hawkish pause) European Central Bank is set for hawkish pause as the economy turns south (msn.com) leaked yesterday McCarthy gambles on Biden impeachment probe as shutdown looms - POLITICO White House blasts Biden impeachment inquiry: ‘Extreme politics at its worst’ | The Hill When will Japan end negative rates? Early-2024 scenario emerges - Nikkei Asia Apple event recap: iPhone 15, new Apple watch and updated AirPods (cnbc.com) a little bit smaller, a little bit more powerful, better pictures, new gimmics, for the 20th time Ancient supervolcano believed to contain a world-changing treasure trove (msn.com) CNBC on X: "What does Chile’s state-led lithium policy mean for the future of the EV industry? Watch the full video: https://t.co/z16BvnADDs https://t.co/9izgWb0WYa" / X (twitter.com) Singapore $1.8 Billion Money Laundering Case Exposes Gaps in Defense - Bloomberg and Singapore Says S$1.8B Money Laundering Probe Wasn’t Opened on China Request - Bloomberg >>> Can Singapore hold on to its reputation as Asia’s ‘safe haven’? | Financial Times (ft.com) maybe not ! Chinese property woes trigger ‘dramatic shift’ into US stocks | Financial Times PBOC to tighten scrutiny on bulk dollar purchases of $50 million and above - report | Forexlive Ole S Hansen on X: "So much for the stable price narrative: Saudi Arabia may require prices of almost $100 a barrel to cover government spending as well as the ambitious projects ofCrown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, estimates from Bloomberg Economics indicate. The kingdom has spent considerable sums…" / X (twitter.com) California fast food workers to get $20 minimum wage under new deal between labor and the industry | The Independent US takes on Google in landmark antitrust trial (yahoo.com) Sen. Joe Manchin: Government debt is alarming and our responsibility is to get financial house in order (cnbc.com) Elon Musk biographer moves to 'clarify' details on Ukraine, Starlink (cnbc.com) Libya floods: Desperate search for survivors as more than 5,000 feared dead | Evening Standard shocking Swiss Bankers Association chief rejects US criticism - SWI swissinfo.ch CABLE

European gasoil (aka, diesel) prices surge again above the $1,000 per metric tone threshold (from 600$ early in 2023) Exploring the four critical user segments of the fast-growing battery secto r German nuclear industry vs windturbine - fun fact below Tory MP Says Electric Cars Could Cause "Blackouts" Without More Nuclear Power Gas markets are becoming ‘extremely difficult’ to predict. It’s a big problem for Europe this winter Apple is set to announce new iPhone models today Switzerland, will be down to the folk : The match between nuclear and solar can begin. Switzerland hasn't had landfills since 200 0 – all municipal waste is either recycled or incinerated 50% of the waste is recycled, and the other 50% is incinerated to produce electricity «The $29 billion profit is not a gift but the capital needed to integrate and support the $500 billion of CS assets on UBS's balance sheet,» commented Sergio Ermotti in a video interview with Swiss state broadcaster «RSI» JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he wouldn't be 'a big buyer of a bank' and sounds the alarm on the economy, ''we've been 'spending like drunken sailors,' and that's a big risk to the economy' ' UK unemployment rises to 4.3% as jobs market cools, but real wages are growing again, signs of stagflation in UK U.S GDP Q3 nowcasts: Atlanta Fed: 5.6% New York Fed: 2.2% St. Louis Fed: -0.25% - as clear as mud ! China set to overtake Japan as world’s biggest car exporter ECB preview: a hawkish pause will satisfy hawks and doves/Saxo Tesla stock soars 10% after Morgan Stanley says Dojo supercomputer could add $500 billion to its market cap Markets : -Central banks meeting coming up, with energy/commodities/crude higher/diesel prices in EU, all could (will) create a renewed 'inflationary' risk and this a concern BTC formed a 'bearish cross', last time this happened in late 2021, price went down 3-Year Treasury hits highest auction yield in 16 years, 10's, 30's coming up Japan 20y yields rose to 1.47%, highest since mid 2014 , JGB's long-end dragging RoW down/yields up >>> so not much happening on JPY, although IMHO I would continue to look for opportunities to sell CRPSSJPY's on rallies (risk off and risk of BoJ intervention again) Equity markets going to have to deal with higher yields, US debt ceiling drama, valuations going into quarter-end, not a bad time for a hedging trade USD remains firm ish, GBP does not like signs of stagflation (no-one does), CHF still the super strong currency, hard to see what can change there, still too hard for specs to fight it Heading into Triple Witching week (which only happens four times a year), the market has been struggling in a neutral position as it dipped into negative gamma territory for the second time this year. What we learned from the recent stretch of negative gamma in August is that context of structure and flow have become proportionately more important. This is partially because 0DTE flows have been supplementing the diminished liquidity from net negative market gamma >>> you saw what happened in Aug, first down, then UP, 'negative gamma chasing the moves', makes it more volatile on daily basis once you break up or down/momentum etc.... Have we reached peak pessimism on China? | Financial Times (ft.com) Maybe - whether there are good reasons to long the market is a different story, contrarians will be having a serious think.. FT seems to think so this morning.. China attracts record ETF flows even as US and Europeans pull out China attracts record ETF flows even as US and Europeans pull out | Financial Times (ft.com) China set to overtake Japan as world’s biggest car exporter | Financial Times (ft.com) it's not all good though China's Economy Is Likely Headed for a Full-Blown Financial Crisis (businessinsider.com) ECB preview a hawkish pause will satisfy hawks and doves | Saxo Group (home.saxo) JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he wouldn't be 'a big buyer of a bank' and sounds the alarm on the economy (yahoo.com) Fun fact: -In 2009 there were about 35.000 people employed in the nuclear industry in Germany, which at that time produced 135 TWh of electricity -In 2016 there were 160.000 people employed in the German wind-turbine industry which produced a total of 80 TWh of electricity Russia energy: Europe faces prospect of higher gas prices this winter (cnbc.com) Tory MP Warns Electric Cars Could Cause "Blackouts" Without More Nuclear Power (politicshome.com) Sergio Ermotti: «The $29 Billion Profit is Not a Gift» (finews.asia) Adam Jonas of MS out with a high profile upgrade: (crickey!) 1. Tesla is eyed as both a tech and an auto company, with a growing emphasis on software and services for revenue generation. 2. The development of Tesla's Dojo supercomputing effort could potentially replicate AWS's contribution to Amazon's total EBIT. 3. Tesla's full self-driving system version 12 is anticipated to release OTA by the end of the year, marking a notable progression in its tech development. 4. Tesla's AI day in early 2024 is a key event to watch for insights into its tech advancements and future strategies. MS sees that Dojo can add up to $500bn to Tesla's enterprise value. This is their top pick! A $400 Tesla share price would mean that Tesla is well back into the "trillion dollar" market cap club , even surpassing NVDA (assuming zero growth for the AI giant that is). From the "rich list" perspective, it would make Musk close to 2x richer than the 2nd person on the list, and almost half-way to becoming a trillionaire. In terms of the beef with Zuck, he is tapping him out in terms of market cap and Anakonda choking him on the rich list. One can only assume that this MoMo leads to a KO in the Colosseum octagon when the real fight eventually happens. Apple is a Chinese company | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> With Apple stock near an all-time high, it’s worth asking how it got there — and how long that can last. The world’s most valuable company makes great products, but it may turn out that the biggest driver of its share price has been the close relationship CEO Tim Cook has cultivated with China. Instacart aiming for valuation of $8.6 billion to $9.3 billion in IPO, reports say (msn.com) >>> was valued at $40bn at their last funding round in 2021 Arm’s IPO Orders Are Already Oversubscribed by 10 Times (yahoo.com) Le peuple aura le dernier mot: Le match entre nucléaire et solaire peut débuter | 24 heures The four critical user segments of the fast-growing battery sector (thearmchairtrader.com) Pensions: Cost of triple lock to soar by further £2bn as wage growth ticks up - CityAM UK unemployment rises to 4.3% as jobs market cools, but real wages are growing again – business live (msn.com) a hint of stagflation there ! Exclusive: Ukraine could get long-range missiles armed with US cluster bombs | Reuters North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrives in Russia before an expected meeting with Putin | AP News EURJPY here - USDJPY and other crosses - similar picture, GBPJPY etc - EURJPY needs to trade below 155 area to really challenge JPY shorts..

Ueda first interview since becoming BoJ Governor : 'ending negative interest rates ‘ with guidance how, pretty explicit, not just talks anymore, 10y JGB yields decade high around 71bps..>>> The BoJ bought time for other CB's to curb inflation without shocks, Ueda may well have signalled that easy extra time is over India forges compromise among divided world powers at the G20 summit in a diplomatic win for Modi China blindsided by Historic Challenge to Belt and Road Project at G20 China's official gold reserves rose to 69.62 million ounces at the end of August , up from 68.69 million ounces a month earlier, marking the tenth consecutive month of incline Fed speakers : Goolsbee 'overall inflation is above where they want it and there are risks', Logan 'appropriate to skit int rate in Sep, skipping does to imply stopping hikes', Williams 'policy in a good place and data dependent' and finally Bostic 'still plenty of work to do to get inflation back to 2%' >>> pretty tough trade off, but overall Sep was never in play, all about Nov Fed meeting and data dependent.. Saudi Arabia has sold more than 40% of its U.S. Treasury holdings since 2020 and its total position has fallen to the lowest level since 2016. The U.S has $7.5trn of debt maturing over the next 12months, debt that was issued near Zero, around 4.5% now, it till add 300bn$ per year in interest payments OPEC+ pushing for $100 oil is a new headache for the U.S admin , rising energy prices going into an election year would not be welcome for Biden, particularly since he used almost all of the SPR reserves.. A strike against GM., Ford and Stellantis of just 10 days would reduce the nation's GDP by $5.6 billion, Crunch time for Biden and US economy as auto industry strike looms The debt-to-income ratio for all homebuyers in the US just hit 40% for the first time in history , during the 2008 financial crisis, this ratio peaked at just under 40% GS : The economic cost of obesity is expected to soar to $4 trillion by 2035. Weight loss drugs like Ozempic could change that "Companies spent much time on AI during earnings calls/analyst days, and now it's time to start putting up results . Anecdotally, the experience of these products has underwhelmed users, and the novelty could wear off quickly" - JPM trading desk Markets : A lot of economic data this week : UK data, German ZES, 10y UST auction tomorrow, with U.S CPI focus on Wed, 30yUST auction, ECB rate decision, U.S PPI and retail sales on Thursday, AUD PMI, China data and U.S Ind prod on Friday BoJ's Ueda taking steam out of JPY shorts , no real drama unless/until USDJPY trades below 145 for potential turnaround (chart below), CROSSJPY's a little softer in tandem, nothing dramatic, yet anyway. Helping USDCNH, which is well off 7.36 highs on Friday Equity markets firmer overall, ahead of pretty key macro week Crude TWI firmer, looks to be slowly heading towards $90-100 This week's economic calendar : Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com) Macro and FX: King Dollar, pressures on China, and will ECB hike? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) India forges compromise among divided world powers at the G20 summit in a diplomatic win for Modi (qz.com) G20 India: Modi Vs Xi, Who Won and Lost, Top Things From Leaders' Summit - Bloomberg African Union made permanent member of G20 at Delhi summit | G20 | The Guardian Bank of Japan Could End Negative Interest Rate Policy; Ueda Tells Yomiuri Shimbun He’s Watching Wages, Prices - The Japan News China's gold reserves rise in August - Chinadaily.com.cn Summing it up pretty well, JPM's tech trader, Ron Adler: "The AI hype continues to wane. Companies spent much time on AI during earnings calls/analyst days, and now it's time to start putting up results. Anecdotally, the experience of these products has underwhelmed users, and the novelty could wear off quickly. Yes, there's a "cool" factor and real-world use cases, but aside from executives in leather jackets , it's unclear how most will monetize and implement. That will take place in the next 12 months, but investors are already growing a bit anxious." AndreasStenoLarsen on X: "Is the US budget deficit out of control? The IRA could prove to make 5-10x as big a whole in US finances than anticipated. Our full story here -> https://t.co/Px4y0wD7Xv https://t.co/vrJ9DkqRRJ" / X (twitter.com) SNB foreign exchange reserves fall further - SWI swissinfo.ch Why the U.S. is struggling to modernize its power grid (cnbc.com) Crunch time for Biden and US economy as auto industry strike looms | Financial Times (ft.com) The U.S. has spent over a trillion dollars fighting war on drugs (cnbc.com) Obesity's Economic Cost Is Expected to Soar to $4 Trillion by 2035 (businessinsider.com) Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Sells $42 Million In Shares: What Investors Should Know - NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) - Benzinga BMW, Mercedes, BYD and Porsche: Cars on display at IAA motor show (cnbc.com) Laura Kuenssberg: Inside the high-stakes soap opera that led to political chaos - BBC News USDJPY - would suggest a close below 145 is needed for decent unwinding of the JPY shorts/carry trade - Very similar picture in the CROSSJPY's

Biden to use G20 summit and Vietnam visit to highlight US as trustworthy alternative to China . President Joe Biden hopes to demonstrate at the upcoming Group of 20 summit in India and a visit to Vietnam that the United States and like-minded allies can be more trustworthy partners than China on economic and security issues UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak singles out China as hindering G-20 agreement China’s top chipmaker may be in hot water as US lawmakers call for further sanctions after Huawei ‘breakthrough’ followed by a new 'to be confirmed' report that China is going to extend ban of IPhone products to local governments.... welcome to G20 ! AAPL looking like the old IBM ? no matter what anyone thinks, AAPL is so correlated to and such a big part of SPX500 - it matters Amazon lawsuit from FTC expected as soon as this month U.S Credit card and car loan defaults hit 10-year high as inflation squeezes families The great Chinese flow reversal -FT/Thread Walmart essentially lowered the starting wage of some starting salaries SPR - WTI holds near 10-month highs ss Total US Crude stock hit 1985 lows Brazil is the world's agricultural superpower . The August 2023 trade surplus dwarfs anything Brazil saw in the same month in previous years/RobinBrooks-Thread Fed's Logan: can skip Sept rate hike, but 'there is work left to do' (Sep was never in play for markets, Nov meeting has had solid consistent procing for months) . Fed's Williams was a little less dovsih yesterday on BBG interview, Goolsbee talked 'high for longer', how long is necessary European gas prices jump as workers strike at Chevron LNG plants The foreign exchange reserves held by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have dropped further : they stood at CHF694 billion ($780 billion) at the end of August, CHF3.7 billion less than in July, when they had fallen by CHF27.1 billion Elon Musk blocked Ukraine's access to Starlink near Crimea after speaking with Russian officials, biographer says (big if true, big IF) Markets : USDCNH breaking higher >>> even local newspaper accepting the CNH fate ' ' The Yuan may not see any major rebound against the dollar in the short term, and could even experience “intermittent depreciation”, as the dollar index is likely to stay strong, according to a front-page commentary in the Securities Times Friday EUR STOXX 50 - chart below - best hold around here or else, DAX similar, other major markets in 'peak mode' , market is long, and there are many issues to deal with in September (AMZN, Big techs, AAPL, China, Crude, debt ceiling and so on), 'time for a hedging trade'.. USD overall stays firm, CROSSJPY's no doing much, if we were to get a few days of weakness is risk with lower yields, they should have a reaction lower Rates rangebound, plenty of rates around the world in 'peak mode', while the U.S has remained pretty strong, U.S rates though 'peaked' last few days below Aug highs!.. if anyone looking for signs of rates peaking..this is it, Nov still in play but a long way to go let's be fair ! AAPL . looking like the old IBM ? huh.. (Sanford Bernstein) >>> fact is, if you put this data against any other name, hardly anyone would be long of it, because it's APPLE, folks like it and given it's size it effectively is in just about every ETF out there (and IMHO...Huawei is getting very competitive too, which has not happened in years...) 1. Apple’s recent results were quite similar to IBM’s on a topline basis, with Apple seeing a third straight quarter of negative YoY revenue growth. 2. Bernstein finds that financial comparisons with IBM two decades ago are not unfounded: "Apple between 2015 and 2023 has had strikingly similar pre-tax income and EPS growth as IBM did between 1997 and 2012." 3. Apple has seen a dramatic re-rating, especially between 2019-2021, resulting in the stock going from a below market multiple at ~11z in 2015 to ~29x today. 4. Bernstein sees two takeaways we can learn from IBM twenty years ago for Apple today (a) "....revenue growth matters, and strong EPS growth absent revenue growth is unlikely to be afforded a rich multiple...(b) customer lock-in can prove ephemeral when platforms change. IBM's strength in mainframes and associated account control once seemed unassailable, but the world moved to industry standard servers and the cloud" Biden to use G20 summit and Vietnam visit to highlight US as trustworthy alternative to China (qz.com) With China in a mountain of debt issues, that's why Biden and many others are interested... India's massive expansion to be a driver of global growth: S&P Global (cnbc.com) African leaders under threat: where is the next coup? – The Irish Times Gas strike at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatsone projects in Western Australia (afr.com) Hedge fund investor Dan Niles says Apple is now his largest single stock short (cnbc.com) Couldn't agree more SNB foreign exchange reserves fall further - SWI swissinfo.ch Walmart cuts starting pay for some new hires - WSJ By Reuters (investing.com) The wage price war over ? FTC's antitrust case against Amazon expected soon: Reports (cnbc.com) Credit card and car loan defaults hit 10-year high as inflation squeezes families (msn.com) Michael Pettis on X: "Joyce Chang always does good work. I'd add that it's not just the net outflows that matter, it is the composition of gross inflows, with less in the form of stable, long-term capital and more in the form of hot money. https://t.co/blVkSAzhWy" / X (twitter.com) China’s top chipmaker may be in hot water as US lawmakers call for further sanctions after Huawei ‘breakthrough’ (yahoo.com) Covid hospitalizations spike with new variant as U.S. readies vaccines (cnbc.com) No NO please NO ! Musk Blocked Ukraine's Starlink Access Near Crimea (businessinsider.com) Really ?? maybe he just wanted to sell his book.. Robin Brooks on X: "Brazil is the world's agricultural superpower. The August 2023 trade surplus dwarfs anything Brazil saw in the same month in previous years. That reflects steady improvement in agriculture exports (orange), so the very strong result this year is NOT an outlier. Brazil is rising. https://t.co/0GM0tMUxeB" / X (twitter.com) Tesla to install charging stations at 2,000 Hiltons in North America (cnbc.com) BMW to use Amazon cloud to build its driverless features for new EVs (cnbc.com) UK house prices suffer sharpest fall in 14 years | House prices | The Guardian Good news for the next generation of first time buyers! Hong Kong and southern China battle widespread flooding from record rains - BBC News whaoo - what a nightmare EURO STOXX 50 best hold around here or else

China seeks to broaden Apple iPhone ban to state firms and agencies . Beijing intends to extend that restriction far more broadly to a plethora of state-owned enterprises and other government-controlled organizations and EU cracks down on 6 Big Tech giants . Dominant players in the bloc will have to comply with the new digital competition rulebook Fed’s Collins: Fed needs patient, careful, deliberate policy approach >>> pretty strong U.S PMI services yesterday (big divergence with RoW), pushed UST yields higher, USD higher, duration, ND lower Berlin did not receive a request for the extradition of conscripts to Ukraine , all Ukrainians have refugee status - German Interior Ministry - Cuba uncovers ‘human trafficking ring’ recruiting for Russia’s war in Ukraine The Coming Green Energy Bailout. Renewable power operators already want rate increases for their subsidized projects >> big green energy inflation reduction Act needs bailing out already - pretty astonishing EU officials will begin meeting with member states this week to outline a plan on how to impose a windfall tax on profits generated by frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction The UK will rejoin the European Union's flagship Horizon science programme after two years of absence post-Brexit, the government has confirmed RBA's outgoing Lowe says productivity boost key to tame inflation, Chile cut rates for the 2nd meeting in a row, 75 bps decrease to 9. Fed's Beige book : modest economic growth continues as retail spending slows Oil Prices Surge, Set Sights on $100: What's Fueling the Rally? Charter, the second-biggest cable company in the US, says the cable TV model is broken BBG : Saudi Arabia continues to squeeze the American oil market , raising the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light into the US to $7.45 per barrel above the benchmark -- a new record high. Very little Saudi oil is going to the US >>> The surge in oil prices “creates a tension between the growth story and the inflation story.” As for the Fed, “Their job has become infinitely more difficult because of this move.” Chinese EVs are now seen posing a ‘real threat’ to Europe’s auto industry India Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants rich nations to take a more constructive attitude on helping developing countries battling with climate change, saying it must come with action on financing and technology transfers-G20 coming up Markets : Crude stays firm(er), eventual supply issue could very well lead us to $100 oil again USD stays firm(er), UST yields, RoW weakening vs U.S ISM services stronger, says it all, though clearly signs of slowdown below (Beige book) . The Reserve Bank of India has been frequently intervening in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to make sure that the rupee does not drop to a record low, no impact of note, so far anyway >>> JPY getting daily comments from BoJ members, not that words will change anything, worth being cautious on JPY shorts and start to favour shorting CROSSJPY's from here. CABLE 3months lows, as Bailey seemed fairly convinced rates in 'peak mode' Equity markets : as stated earlier in the week, 'time for a hedging trade', enough issues looming to justify timing, together with high valuations, APPL, China, US debt ceiling, EU having a go at the big 6 Techs, duration selling off and higher crude 10y UST above 4.25%, alarm bells for some, if we go above 4.4% Fed's Collins says policymakers can 'proceed cautiously' on future rate hikes (cnbc.com) Fed's Beige Book: Modest economic growth continues as retail spending slows | Watch (msn.com) Fed's Job Gets Harder as Higher Oil Prices Sow Doubt on Soft Landing - Bloomberg RBA's outgoing Lowe says productivity boost key to tame inflation | Reuters Oil Prices Surge, Set Sights on $100: What's Fueling the Rally? (msn.com) Taiwan chip giant TSMC says Arizona plant making 'fast progress' (yahoo.com) Chinese EVs are now seen posing a 'real threat' to Europe's auto industry (cnbc.com) China trade: exports tumble for fourth consecutive month in August, headwinds to remain despite marginal gain | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) The Coming Green Energy Bailout - WSJ China seeks to broaden Apple iPhone ban to state firms and agencies (business-standard.com) Michael Pettis on X: ""Countries that run a persistent current account deficit will eventually be forced to adjust, but there is no mechanism to discipline countries that run a persistent surplus. Yet the surplus of one country must be the deficit of another." https://t.co/o9zpzrYe04" / X (twitter.com) Cuba uncovers ‘human trafficking ring’ recruiting for Russia’s war in Ukraine | Cuba | The Guardian EU cracks down on 6 Big Tech giants – POLITICO EU Challenges Apple, Microsoft in New Antitrust Push to Rein in Big Tech - Bloomberg they have 6months to comply/respond 'I could die': German military struggles to recruit - The Local UK 'underinvesting' in infrastructure and concrete panel crisis 'forseeable', former BoE chief economist says | Politics News | Sky News ''in need of a lot of infrastructure investments'...for a whole decade at least.. UK to rejoin EU science scheme after almost three years (yahoo.com) ¨ finally some good news ! UK politicians were squabbling over fish and other nonsense, for what exactly ?.. The UK had safe water. Then Brexit allowed the Tories to flush away our environmental standards | Stella Creasy | The Guardian WeWork begins to renegotiate leases globally | Reuters Even Charter Thinks Cable TV Sucks Now: Disney Dispute (businessinsider.com) Alleged Launderer Assets Seized at Julius Baer, CS (finews.asia) The New UBS Embraces Shareholder Value (finews.asia) Japan joins Moon race with successful rocket launch - BBC News Nightmare ! Damaged train to be removed from Gotthard by end September - SWI swissinfo.ch Margaret Betts: Bletchley Park WW2 codebreaker who kept 'sharp brain right until the end' dies | UK News | Sky News Nasdaq - following script together with duration/UST long-end

China bans iPhone use for Government Officials at work. ...and strangely enough : A new Huawei phone has defeated US chip sanctions against China. SMIC, China's top chipmaker, has manufactured a 7-nanometer processor for Huawei's Mate 60 Pro—despite US chip sanctions against China Crude tests November 2022 highs after OPEC/Russia extend supply cut to Dec 2023 The Treasury market looks to be pricing in the 'old normal' interest rates, ie a world where bond yields need to be beyond what short-term yields imply..this would be a Very bumpy ride and look/feel very unusualformany, particularly with market structure, supply, TGA etc, which makes it very hard to work out for many German Industrial Orders fell by 11.7% vs 4% expected With oil prices rising again, investors are starting to worry again about even higher long-term bond yields ahead + supply is huge over next few months (known known but still) Wie viel teurer wird er Strom in deiner Gemeinde? Trouve le prix d'electricité dans ton village pour 2023 - link ci-dessous ARM is seeking up to a $52 billion valuatio n in its blockbuster U.S. IPO Saudi to extend voluntary cut of 1m B/D until end of Dec 2023 , Russia too 300K B/D Fed Governor Waller agrees the central bank can 'proceed carefully' on interest rates and Fed's Mester: 'Job market is still strong' despite higher unemploymen ECB’s Knot Says Markets may underestimate September hike chance, he is an 'über hawk' so he would say this, only 6bp priced in for next meeting, clearly would be huge surprise if they did hike, unlikely though JPMorgan says the biggest risk of de-dollarization isn't a rival currency — it's that the US could lose a key tool it's used to fight past economic crises Japan's Matsuno says watching FX moves with high sense of urgenc y, more than words will be needed top turn JPY, including YCC change etc BBG - China is considering introducing a law that would ban the wearing of clothes that "hurt the feelings" of others. Perpetrators could face fines or even jail....seriously?! BMW, Mercedes launch biggest EV push yet to catch Tesla with new models Airbnb bookings dry up in New York as new short-stay rules are introduced (one of the many reasons why rents went through the rood of late, specifically in towns..) Markets : A lot of Central Bank meetings in september USDollar remsin strong(er), with yields high/er) for longer, even USDCHF look to finally be joining it topside! USDJPY could and should get a little bumpy from here though with BoJ behind the scenes, thus look to sell a bit of CROSSJPY's on risk off days.. Equity markets drifting down, it was and still is time for a 'hedging trade' Crude higher, can we get to 95-100$ ? this won't help inflationary pressures! US Bond Bulls Are Too Optimistic as Yields Inch Back Up, AlphaSimplex Says - Bloomberg Fed's Mester: 'Job market is still strong' despite higher unemployment (msn.com) De-Dollarization: US Risks Losing Tool Used to Fight Past Economic Crises (businessinsider.com) Chip design firm Arm seeks up to $52 billion valuation in blockbuster U.S. IPO (cnbc.com) Knall bei MoneyPark: Ende, Aus, Schluss - Inside Paradeplatz Knall bei MoneyPark: Ende, Aus, Schluss - Inside Paradeplatz check out prices of electricity in your Gemeinde for next year ! Oil prices spike as Saudi Arabia, Russia extend 1.3 million barrel a day oil cut through December (qz.com) A new Huawei phone has defeated US chip sanctions against China (qz.com) China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials at Work (msn.com) Enrique Tarrio: Former Proud Boys leader jailed for 22 years over US Capitol Attack | Evening Standard North Korea hackers stole crypto to fund nuclear program: TRM, Chainalysis (cnbc.com) Clashes erupt in Sweden's third largest city after another Quran burning. At least 3 are detained | Watch (msn.com) strewth! Singapore seizes millions in Credit Suisse, Julius Baer accounts (theedgesingapore.com) They started with local banks, now onto foreign banks.. BMW, Mercedes launch biggest electric vehicle push yet to catch Tesla (cnbc.com) How China became king of new nuclear power, how U.S. could catch up (cnbc.com) europe? UK ? Airbnb bookings dry up in New York as new short-stay rules are introduced | Airbnb | The Guardian CABLE working it's way down still - above 1.275+ on close and it will look 'wrong' and painful for £ shorts

U.S. deficit explodes even as economy grows. A strong economy usually reduces the deficit. Not this time >>> pretty insane spending still ongoing!! budget deficit eating into the entire economy, with debt payments set to soar higher still, as private sectors feels the pain too, this is not sustainable NFP : to confirm NFP was not weak last Friday, headline and revisions maybe, but 35K job losses were down to Yellow going down because of awful management, not slowing economy, the Urate was up on more folks re-entering the labor market, which is a positive sign and ISM data suggested manufacturing actually starting to accelerate which is a good sign ! Caixin services PMI data which slipped from 54.1 in July to 51.8 in Aug Dreaming of life on a remote island? Ireland will pay you almost $100,000 to move to one The EU is running out of other people’s money . The bloc’s rampant spending has a catch – no one is willing to foot the bill Germany is the ‘sick man of Europe’ — and it’s causing a shift to the right, top economist says. Spain weakening too : Spanish HCOB Services PMI Aug: 49.3 (exp 51.5; prev 52.8), Spanish HCOB Composite PMI Aug: 48.6 (exp 50.9; prev 51.7), similar picture around EU Putin says he won’t renew the grain deal until the West meets his demands. The West says it has Speculation is mounting the European Central Bank will shrink its bond portfolio at a quicker pace to ensure it keeps financing conditions tight as the end of its rate-hiking cycle approaches. Markets pricing showing the ECB is almost done lifting borrowing costs as evidence of the economic damage inflicted by tighter monetary policy builds up. But with longer-term real rates failing to rise in response this year, analysts at ING, Mizuho and few others suggesting the ECB will focus on shrinking its bond holdings at a faster pace RBA extended rate pause / kept interest rates on hold at 4.1 per cent for the third month straight, but has flagged further increases may be needed to ensure inflation remains under control (data dependent) but ''prices of many services are rising briskly, rent inflation is also elevated'' Morgan Stanley says China is 'overinvested,' but India's the opposite U.S : 45% Drop in Home Purchases – Bigger than 2008, home sales are now down 31% in 2023 U.S Savings rate back down to 3.5%. Keep in mind that's *with* money markets offering a "risk free" 5% Markets : Bonds had their usual 'bid' into month-end (+China measures) helping equity markets and a slightly softer USD AUD weakened on weaker Chinese data and unch. RBA. USD lost ground into month-end, and is recovering on stronger US data (NFP and ISM), while services ISM coming in softer no win EU and China, MXN a little softer (crowded long MXN out there?), USDCNH back 7.30+ too Crude stays firm, a move towards $95 WTI not unconceivable ! Equity markets rallied into month-end...and slowly giving ground again, ''time for a hedging trade'' again. SPX500 ''perfect correction back to trendline'' to resell and of course the US debt ceiling drama coming up this month - again U.S. debt is growing as possible government shutdown looms - The Washington Post Wall of Corporate Debt to Spark Recession in 2024, Fidelity International Says (yahoo.com) Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA FX Daily: Economic resilience keeps dollar ‘expensive’ | Article | ING Think De-Dollarization: USD 'Losing Some Influence' in the Oil Markets, Per JPM (businessinsider.com) The EU is running out of other people’s money (telegraph.co.uk) Germany is the 'sick man of Europe' — and it's causing a shift to the right, top economist says (cnbc.com) Europe’s Real Rates Fuel Speculation Over Faster ECB Bond Runoff - Bloomberg Bank of England's 'regrettable' mistakes fuelled inflation, its former top economist says | Business News | Sky News They all made a huge mistake, to print for far too long, even when inflation was evident!! Student loan payments restart in October — four changes to expect (cnbc.com) Wall Street Silver on X: "Real Estate Industry in Panic Mode: 45% Drop in Home Purchases – Bigger Than '08! Home sales are now down 31% in 2023. Without transactions, many jobs that are commission oriented are seeing huge declines in incomes. Real estate agents, mortgage brokers, title insurance, home… https://t.co/PfIMwaQ7X2" / X (twitter.com) Frederik Ducrozet on X: "🇪🇺 3-year consumer inflation expectations edged up in July, based on the ECB's CES (led by Germany and Italy). Actual inflation is coming down, but it has been too high for too long. Expect the ECB to err on the hawkish side to prevent any de-anchoring of expectations. https://t.co/GgzfOqf8tr" / X (twitter.com) Singapore workers adopting AI skills at the fastest pace: LinkedIn (cnbc.com) Dreaming of life on a remote island? Ireland might be the answer (cnbc.com) Tempted !!? Putin says he won't renew the grain deal until the West meets his demands. The West says it has | AP News Ukraine war: Kim Jong Un 'to visit Putin for weapons talks' - BBC News Morgan Stanley calls China 'overinvested', but India is underinvested (cnbc.com) Return to Work Mandates Are Ridiculous and Cruel (businessinsider.com) thoughts ? SPX500 - perfect correction, resell

WTI rising to $85, no coincidence it is the 4th consecutive week of growth in the US SPR and Saudi cuts in production Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill issues warning over interest rate rises US AUGUST ISM FACTORY INDEX RISES TO 47.6 FROM 46.4; EST. 47 - BBG *US AUGUST ISM PRICES-PAID INDEX RISES TO 48.4 FROM 42.6, stronger, Construction Spending 0.7%, Exp. 0.5%, Last 0.6%, and NFP a little stronger than expected too ( back to normal levels, after a frantic turnover last 2-3years ), Fed's Mester was also a little more hawkish earlier, and just like that 10's UST turned around from 4.05 to current 4.18 in the long-end (supply..) Congress poised for messy September as McCarthy races to avoid government shutdown >> just as...US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion ECB’s Wunsch cites persistent inflation to back the need to “do a little bit more” China says the best way to 'de-risk' is to restore stability with the U.S -it will help! >> Xi Vows to Continue Opening Up Market, on Own Terms - Bloomberg The lithium mining process requires vast amounts of fresh water, causing fear among the locals - Video below Turkish Inflation Nears 60%, Piling Pressure On Central Bank - BBG UK chip designer Arm ‘cuts target valuation before Nasdaq listing’ . Company said to be eyeing $50bn-$55bn compared with $64bn its owner Softbank stated last month Markets : China wobbled, as usual China reacted and pressed on with plenty of new credit and cuts, U.S risks yet another gov shutdown towards the end of Sep, financial risk far too low, business cycle no more, whole new 'kind' of economy, as few Central Bankers talked about at Jackson Hole, Powell focused on employment. Interest rates likely to remain high for longer, consumer spending clearly depends on strength of job market Crude : highest weekly close in a long while CROSSJPY's rally again together with long-end yields BONDS, steeper curve, long-end struggling, supply etc and more drama on debt ceiling coming Equity markets hanging in there, valuation overall too high, rates to remain high for longer, clear stock picking market, it's not all good or all bad! * U.S markets close today Saudi Crude Oil Exports Plummet as OPEC Giant Slashes Production (yahoo.com) China says the best way to 'de-risk' is to restore stability with the U.S. (cnbc.com) Congress poised for messy September as McCarthy races to avoid government shutdown | CNN Politics >>> more drama no doubt Christine Lagarde on inflation: high interest rates 'as long as necessary' | Fortune UK chip designer Arm ‘cuts target valuation before Nasdaq listing’ | Arm | The Guardian Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill issues warning over interest rate rises | Business News | Sky News Donald Trump's election fraud trial in Georgia will be livestreamed - BBC News Cant' wait ! Credit Cease? CS to Disappear in 2025 (finews.asia) Covid: When to wear masks as cases rise, new variants emerge in U.S. (cnbc.com) Not again please! Tesla faces competition in Europe as local manufacturers fight back | Fortune Judge withdraws from Medicare drug price case after stock ownership is revealed (cnbc.com) Two Proud Boys members get lengthy prison terms for Capitol attack | US Capitol attack | The Guardian Insider Business on X: "The lithium mining process requires vast amounts of fresh water, causing fear among the locals https://t.co/TgP3dRMYGc" / X (twitter.com) thoughts ? have a great start to the week Team PVM

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in August from 49.2 in July , beating analysts' forecasts of 49.3 and marking the highest reading since February. The 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction China tells India to 'stay calm' in border map row, and Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to skip next week’s Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, a snub that’s likely to aggravate strains with India >> India shows an impressive 7.8% economic growth in April-June quarter Delinquencies rise for credit cards and auto loans , and it could get worse - Wapo and still under 50, but pretty 'punchy' Chicago PMI 48.7 , Exp. 44.2, Last 42.8 Surge in Hedge-Fund Treasury shorts hints at rise of Basis Trade - one to keep an eye on over next few weeks clearly ECB's Holzmann: August inflation data a conundrum for the ECB - ''underlying inflation could be expected to remain high for an extended period of time'' >>> high for longer!, Villeroy ''we are quite close to a peak in interest rates but we're far from the point where we could contemplate cuts'' >>> ECB minutes overall talking 'stagflation' in the north (Germany etc)...while this is not the case in the south ! Spanish inflation was a little softer for example.. Japan raises military spending to counter China with more missiles and ships. BoJ Nakanura says Japan is no longer in deflation , but that mindset is yet to be eradicated The U.S economy basically grew at a 2% rate throughout the first half of the year Germany begins dismantling wind farm for coal Bostic ''the U.S labor market undergoing a measured cooling'' -- does he know today's number ? (Non-voter though) France's finance minister says multinational food companies Nestle, PepsiCo and Unilever should do more to cut food prices after the government agreed to bigger rollbacks with other producers Russia is the big winner from OPEC+ output cuts . Higher prices have more than offset lower supply, in stark contrast to the situation faced by Riyadh-BBG Sergio Ermotti has no time for nostalgia U.S Funding for the federal government is set to run out on Sept. 30 unless action is taken by Congress , more drama Markets : Bonds had their usual bid- & month-end rally on slightly weaker U.S macro data this week, although core PCE and EU inflation (in particular) were firmer-sticky inflation USDollar mixed no real direction - USDJPY ( USDJPY Technical Analysis - Signs of a top are emerging ) and CROSSJPY's corrected a little lower (after a big rally last 2months..) , MXN which has outperformed markets YTD was a little weaker into fixings Equity markets, August was a game of 2 halves.. initially stronger data pushed yields higher and equity tumbled together with China worries, all got slightly reverses into last 2weeks on softer data and plenty of China actions to support their own economy Saxo : China update : implication of the new policy to lower int rates on outstanding mortgages and other changes : Summary: China's real estate market is a focus of interest. Recent changes in policies on mortgage rates and down payments aim to address challenges. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the National Administration of Financial Regulation (NAFR) introduced these changes on August 31. They reduce interest rates on outstanding mortgages and standardize down payment ratios. Guangzhou and Shenzhen also moved to expand the eligibility of first-home buyer benefits. These changes reflect efforts to stabilize the property market and boost consumption, but their impact on the economy remains relatively modest. Meeting of 26-27 July 2023 (europa.eu) China to cut banks' FX reserve ratio to rein in yuan weakness | Reuters White House asks Congress for short-term funding to avoid shutdown (cnbc.com) Surge in Hedge-Fund Treasury Shorts Hints at Rise of Basis Trade (yahoo.com) Stock Market Outlook: S&P 500 Will Rally Next Month and Retest 2023 High (businessinsider.com) - Lee is pretty much always bullish, but there you go, why not ! this will push valuations and SP7 etc to new stretched levels - Having said all this, July spending came from US Savings!..the savings rate 'collapsed'' from 4.3% to 3.5% in July, lowest since Nov 22, and biggest drop since Jan 22 France accuses Unilever and Nestle of refusing to lower prices (msn.com) Japan raises military spending to counter China with more missiles and ships | Financial Times (ft.com) Germany begins dismantling wind farm for coal (euobserver.com) and they going up in Scotland despite council apposition Sanquhar turbines approved despite council opposition - BBC News Second quarter GDP revised down to 2.1% from 2.4% | Fortune Stubborn euro inflation is a fresh headache for the Bank of England | Evening Standard Delinquencies rise for credit cards and auto loans, and it could get worse - The Washington Post ...which should hardly be a surprise given higher interest rates! but the lag effect could suddenly bite hard.. Families welcome plan to force offenders into dock after Lucy Letby case - BBC News Gabon coup: This should not be mistaken for people power | World News | Sky News Few Russians wanted the war in Ukraine – but they won’t accept a Russian defeat either | Anatol Lieven | The Guardian North Korea says it simulated nuclear attack on South, rehearsed occupation | The Hill let's hope it's all fakenews! UK house prices fall by most since 2009, Nationwide says | Reuters Good news for would be buyers! China tells India to 'stay calm' in border map row - BBC News India shows an impressive 7.8% economic growth in April-June quarter (qz.com) Russia Is the Big Winner From OPEC+ Output Cuts - Bloomberg Ukraine turns the tables on Moscow as drone attacks increase (cnbc.com) Peter Navarro Lashes Out After Losing 'Executive Privilege' Claim in Court (newsweek.com) UBS Slows Digitalization After Significant Cyberattack (finews.asia) Sergio Ermotti Has No Time for Nostalgia (finews.asia) Meanwhile somewhere in America :-) Police pull over car with huge bull in passenger seat. - BBC News If you were waiting to resell/rehedge some NQ exposure - it should be around here

PVM take on UBS earnings report below French consumer prices reached a 12-month inflation rate of 5.7%, up from 5.1% in July, Portugal comes in at 5.3% vs 4.3% prior, EU data out shortly, EU 5.3% YoY Euro zone growth is weaker than predicted just a few months ago but this does not automatically void the need for more rate hikes , especially as markets are undoing some of the European Central Bank's work, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said Military coups were a regular occurrence in parts of Africa in the decades after independence. But after a period of relative democratic stability, there are indications they are on the rise/Gabon now China manuf index rose to 49.7 (more than expected), while non manuf slightly down to 51 Japanese ministers eat Fukushima fish to show it's safe after nuclear plant wastewater is discharged BoE's Pill : MPC emphasis is on sufficiently restrictive, No room for complacency on inflation, The squeeze on our consumption and living standards from rising mortgage rates won’t reach peak till at least the end of 2025 . This is a new world, which will persist through the next general election Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic laid out a case on Thursday against any further U.S. interest rate hikes , saying monetary policy is already tight enough to bring inflation back down to 2% over a "reasonable" period Apple has set Sept. 12 as the date for its biggest product-upgrade event of the year , when it’s set to unveil the iPhone 15 line and next-generation smartwatches Amazon CEO in warning to staff who defy return-to-office policy Markets : NVDA closes on all time highs, sky is the limit looking at forecasters ! UST yields slightly softer on U.S GDP and ADP payrolls, ' peak rates' narratives underpinning markets UST 2y is down about 20bps this week, on softer data, taking the Nov pricing out, let's see how low core PCE comes in at this afternoon, and payrolls tomorrow important too >>> On a YoY basis, rents suggest that CPI Shelter growth should slow significantly in the coming months USDollar, should soften a little on weaker macro and thus 'softer yields', the supply issue of bonds over next few months is big, although a known known! Equity markets more or less took back most of the early August weakness, on this softer data or 'goldilocks' moment as some seems to already be talking about (more about short-term positioning IMHO >>> ECB's Schnabel and this week EU inflation data is jumping back up, which is a worry... stagflation! ’Peak rates’ narrative continues to underpin momentum | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Gabon coup: The latest in a series of military takeovers on the continent - BBC News Ousting of Gabon's unpopular leader was a 'smokescreen' for soldiers to seize power, analysts say | AP News The PVM take on UBS (recall we did predict that CS would not survive without Swiss Govt support on CNBC in August 2022) : UBS Q2 whilst the headline results are as expected, even fully writing off the CS goodwill to reduce the overall Q2 profits. On the balance sheet, whilst adding USD 30.2 bn to retained earnings, they also took on CS's USD 175bn of debt which has had the effect of increasing their leverage from 3.55x to 4.1x, so they definitely need to focus on reducing debt and this is why the Q3 outlook is weak. Overall a fantastic result though. The full integration of CS over time will reduce the cost to income ratio, significantly expanding profitability Markets may have undone some of the ECB's work: Schnabel (yahoo.com) Fed's Bostic says U.S. interest rates are high enough (yahoo.com) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "🇺🇸 #Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead - #Fed's Powell "if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels, housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well" "We will continue to watch the market rent data closely" https://t.co/IgMWaHQBqS https://t.co/RfGHxKUap6" / X (twitter.com) China economy: Factory activity in August shrinks for a fifth month (cnbc.com) China's 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? (msn.com) For decades, China powered its economy by investing in factories, skyscrapers and roads. The model sparked an extraordinary period of growth that lifted China out of poverty and turned it into a global giant whose export prowess washed across the globe. Now the model is broken. China says drop in trade with U.S. is direct consequence of U.S. moves (cnbc.com) US Senate's McConnell freezes up for second time in public appearance | Reuters Japanese ministers eat Fukushima fish to show it's safe after nuclear plant wastewater is discharged (qz.com) Avoiding catastrophe, Florida's Gulf Coast begins cleanup from Hurricane Idalia | Reuters Giuliani loses Georgia election worker defamation suit by default, judge rules | The Hill Shipping breezes back to the future with wind-powered sails - Positive News Let's hope this is realistic ! if so this is great Amazon CEO in warning to staff who defy return-to-office policy - The Irish News Electrified models help power UK car production up by almost a third | Business News | Sky News In pictures: Rare blue supermoon captured in East Midlands - BBC News SPX500 4525 key res, DAX 16K etc 'softer data' could well bring back some top side momentum

Spanish core CPI rises to 6.1% YoY (est was 6.0%), Germany's Brandenburg Aug CPI 7.1% YoY vs 6.3% JOLTs Job Openings decreased from 9.582 million in June to 8.827 million in July and the Conf Board Consumer Confidence declined from 117 in July to 106.1 in August (>>2y UST yields dropped about 10-15bps to current 4.92%) >> The JOLTS report missed analyst estimates by a wide margin, highlighting the negative impact of rising interest rates - biggest 3-month drop in US job openings on record , Powell talked about employment 15x last Friday.. next up ADP, PCE and NFP U S wants to work with China to address concerns such as climate change , AI, fentanyl crisis, said US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo when meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang Japan's inflation is "clearly in sight" of the central bank's target, its board member Naoki Tamura said on Wed, signalling the chance of an end to negative interest rates early 2024 Biden touts drugs chosen for Medicare price negotiation : ‘We’re not gonna back down’ Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens Russia targets Kyiv with the biggest overnight missile attack since the spring Netflix: Streamer's expansion into gaming is 'natural extension' First bitcoin ETF could be coming soon as court rules in favor of Grayscale over SEC Germany : In den Sozialkassen schlummert ein finanzielles Desaster/Welt FDIC plans to boost oversight on US midsized lenders : The FDIC plans to boost oversight of US midsized lenders and require them to better prepare for potential failures. Banks with as little as $100 billion in assets will have to issue enough long-term debt to cover capital losses in times of severe stress. However, only the largest and most-complex firms will be subject to total loss-absorbing capacity requirements, or TLAC Markets : Bad news (JOLTS and consumer confidence) was good news for markets y'da y, NQ in particular, oversold levels in markets gone in short-term ! just like this USD dipped initially and should continue softer, IF next sets of data show similar signs of slowdown... CROSSJPY's closing in on higher levels again into month-end, metals rallied further, Silver charts all out again with that potential big break up Bonds moved a bit but honestly the deciders coming up now with ADP, PCE and NFP >>> UST supply will remain huge over next couple of months! Sticky Spanish and German inflation lift investor bets on ECB rate rise | Financial Times Bad news is good news, or so the market thinks | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Raimondo meets Chinese officials as countries seek more stable relationship (cnbc.com) Technical analysis UBS indicators sending signs of trend exhaustion | Saxo Group (home.saxo) David Rosenberg on X: "To see a JOLTS report show declines in openings, hires and quits and an increase in layoffs is a 4 SD event. It has happened the grand total of 4% of the time in the past and just 2% when the economy was not in a recessionary state (maybe it is!)." / X (twitter.com) it's 1 data, let's see if it's backed up by ADP, PCE and NFP .. 17 Billionen Euro Schulden: In den Sozialkassen schlummert ein finanzielles Desaster - WELT BOJ policymaker signals chance of policy tweak early next year | Reuters Chinese banks to cut existing mortgage rates as property crisis deepens | Reuters Meta disrupts Chinese misinformation network linked to law enforcement (cnbc.com) Netflix: Streamer's expansion into gaming is 'natural extension' - BBC News First bitcoin ETF could be coming soon as court rules in favor of Grayscale over SEC (cnbc.com) No-Mercy-UBS: Ü50 landen im Uetlihof auf Strasse - Inside Paradeplatz was ever so.. German economic policy has gone stark raving mad (telegraph.co.uk) G erman economic policy is a clutter of contradictions and misguided shibboleths. The coalition government is offering exorbitant subsidies to profitable American and Asian semiconductor companies at a cost of €3.3m (£2.8m) per job, radically departing from Germany’s ordoliberal traditions of market primacy. Russia's War in Ukraine: Kyiv Hit in Biggest Strike in Months - Bloomberg Russia’s kamikaze drones raining down on Ukraine's east - BBC News Biden touts drugs chosen for Medicare price negotiation: ‘We’re not gonna back down’ | The Hill --- more details here Jon Cooper on X: "🚨BREAKING: The federal government just identified the first 10 medications that will be subject to direct price negotiations with pharmaceutical manufacturers, as part of a major new initiative to reduce prescription drug costs in Medicare. The list includes a pair of… https://t.co/GQHyd8m09l" / X (twitter.com) County in China offers cash 'reward' for newlywed couples if bride is aged 25 and under | World News | Sky News a bit desperate! have a great day Team PVM

Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years Brazil and China are strengthening their trade ties with a massive corn deal in 2023 . Brazil is set to export 5 million tonnes of corn to China Jackson Hole recap : Fed rate hikes likely on hold for ‘several meetings’ - ''high for longer'', though Powell clearly emphasized on the tightness of the labour market keeping the economy going, so employment data key, anything below 200K NFP and the market will shift and bonds rally, at least on the headline, medium term issue of supply still there.. Germany 's governing coalition has agreed on a new basic child benefit allowance at an initial cost of around 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) from 2025. IW institute cuts GDP forecast, now expects contraction of up to 0.5% for 2023 China & the US agreed to have their commerce ministers meet at least once a year in an effort to improve ties. Gina Raimondo said after meeting with Wang Wentao in Beijing that trade and transparency can stabilize relations, and told her counterpart that the Biden administration had no intention of hindering Chinese economic progress UK : Prices rose 6.9% in the year to August, down from 8.4% in July - BRC >>> The figures do not mean things are getting cheaper, but that prices are increasing at a slower rate than they did previously Shares of Vietnamese EV maker Vinfast surged 21% on Monday, extending a rally from last week that more than quadrupled its market value to $160 billion Recep Tayyip Erdogan & Vladimir Putin will hold talks in Sochi on Sep 4th US housing payment for new homes is now as high as 51% of the median household income , which is the highest since the mid 1980's Michele Bullock says climate change will force RBA to reassess how it controls inflation in the future Markets : Pretty quiet going into month-end ..Equity markets globally helped by moves in China (short of long-term impact ?), CROSSJPY's closing August on the highs, USDJPY trades above the levels where BoJ intervened last year. USDCNH 7.30 still no exactly much lower after those interventions this month Bonds 'stable' ahead of PCE and NFP - employment data now pretty key IMHO, sincel Powell mentioned it so many times during his speech in Jackson Hole Chinese equity narrative turns to hope of a turnaround | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) listen and open the charts too PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Risk-on sentiment continues this morning with a strong Chinese equity session seeing Hang Seng futures rallying 2%. We discuss the new positive sentiment on Chinese equities, but also the ongoing risks to the Chinese economy. We also talk about the recent headwinds for the USD and positioning in industrials metals. Finally, we cover the 3M lawsuit settlement over defective earplugs to the US military and the upcoming earnings today from HP and NIO. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities. Dallas Fed respondents: " High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before . In addition to reshoring heavy activity, supply-chain issues, lack of qualified labor and interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates and give confidence to the industrial segments to plan growth." (Dallas may not be whole reflection of the U.S, but there you go) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Brazil May Export 5 million Tonnes of Corn To China in 2023 | Czapp Brazil Develops Tropical Wheat and Predicts Self-sufficiency in 5 Years | Czapp Michele Bullock says climate change will force RBA to reassess how it controls inflation in the future (msn.com) German government agrees new 2.4 billion euro basic child allowance (yahoo.com) Vinfast rallies on after becoming world's third-most valuable automaker | Reuters Number of men in Germany working part-time increases - The Local Price rises in shops at lowest for nearly a year - BBC News Better news, still far too high though China halves stamp duty on stock trades to boost flagging market | Reuters The reaction to the latest move was much more muted than when Beijing last took similar steps, in 2008 Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The importance of this chart cannot be overstated. Investors expecting global inflation to decelerate is the most consensus view in the history of the data, even lower than during the Global Financial Crisis. This is consistent with how market participants are the most bullish… https://t.co/pCvcSSNQ27" / X (twitter.com) Red Cross gifted gold bars left on a Swiss train - SWI swissinfo.ch Who's were they ?! New California city backed by big names in Silicon Valley: report (cnbc.com) Vinfast rallies on after becoming world's third-most valuable automaker | Reuters Whaooo... is that isn't bubbly ! good for the longs though clearly..2nd largest car Ulez expanded to include whole of outer London - BBC News DAX - correcting back to trendline support line (now resistance)