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Markets : Klarna is a 20y old company and still not profitable, ORCL's past with earnings reports, FX dead still, rates stable after 'much weaker' than expected PPI in the U.S (a little strange, chart available on request questioning the low print), equity markets made new highs, what else.. DAX a little softer, with Poland article 4, France blockages and so on, valuations remains ridiculously high and concentrated with the usual MAG10 say, interesting opportunities elsewhere in relative value though, metals quiet, PALL reacting to possible new Russia sanctions Geopolitics : President Maduro says the US military buildup in the Caribbean is aimed at Venezuela's oil, gas and gold reserves, Putin ready to invade other countries, says Polish president, Assassination of Charlie Kirk adds to America's roll call of public violence, Nepal’s finance minister was attacked by an angry mob Trade : EU's Von der Leyen: Considering social media curbs in EU, Europe seems unlikely to hike secondary sanction tariffs on India and China to 100%, as the U.S. has suggested, US, India eye trade reset as Trump plans talks with Modi, ‘Block everything’: Nationwide protests raise travel tensions across France, Qatar Hamas strike, Poland ‘closer to military conflict than at any time since WW2’ as Nato allies weigh response to Russian drones, Putin tests NATO with drone assault on Poland The FED's balance sheet fell by -$39 bn in Aug, to $6.60 trn, the lowest since April 2020 Lutnick again said the U.S. should take (he said 'take'..) a chunk of universities' patent revenue US federal debt will reach $150 TRILLION by 2055 , according to the CBO's own forecast, if that's so... we going to need o own more #XAUUSD and other metals Scot Bessent’s hedge fund, Key Square Capital, was launched in 2015 with over $4.5 billion in assets, including $2 billion from George Soros. Over time, the fund suffered a series of substantial losses and investor withdrawals, leaving it with less than $1 billion by 2023 – closer to $577 million at year-end Economic problems again feature heavily in yesterday's Russian papers/Thread SNB's Schlegel: The effect of tariffs on Switzerland is difficult to determine #ORCL has had 'accounting issues' between 2016-2019 Mexico Plans 50% Tariff on Chinese Cars Before US, Canada Talks India-US trade deal: India’s chief trade negotiator may travel to America next week; Modi-Trump call likely soon Polish PM: Europe closer to war than any time since WW2 after airspace 'violations' Putin tests NATO with drone assault on Poland – POLITICO What happened in the strike on Hamas leadership in Doha and what it means for the war in Gaza | CNN ‘Block everything’: Nationwide protests raise travel tensions across France 'Socialism': Joe slams Trump official for saying U.S. should take chunk of college's patent revenue Mortgage demand jumps as rates fall to lowest since 2024 Putin ready to invade other countries, says Polish president - Insider Paper Meet Nepal's nepokids - Inside Gen-Z's viral rebellion against PMs and ministers' children with lavish lives - World News | The Financial Express Assassination of Charlie Kirk adds to America's roll call of public violence We keep been told Bessent was a successful Hedge Fund manager, was she ?...and that he is going to do great for the U.S.... Mega Hedge Fund Launches Are Rare — and Don’t Ensure Lasting Success | Institutional Investor Gold is on a tear: What does silver need to catch up? US Producer Prices Unexpectedly Fall Battle Over UBS Capital Rules in Parliament Oracle hit with whistleblower lawsuit over cloud accounting | Reuters In Re Oracle Securities Litigation, 829 F. Supp. 1176 (N.D. Cal. 1993) :: Justia Klarna stock surges 30% on hotly awaited Wall Street debut 20y old company, still not actually making a profit, pretty amazing really, but nothign new in today's world.. Steve Rosenberg on X: "Economic problems again feature heavily in today’s Russian papers: “More & more regions of Russia are facing a shortage of petrol” ▪️ “Devaluation of the rouble is inevitable” ▪️ “Russians have less and less money left over.” #ReadingRussia https://t.co/YXpR9DPCyM " / X ‘The Epstein book is the one thing that has Trump genuinely scared’ | The News Agents MPs want Mandelson back in Britain to face questions over Epstein ties Approving China 'mega' embassy would be unlawful, UK government told BreakThrough News on X: "President Maduro says the US military buildup in the Caribbean is aimed at Venezuela's oil, gas and gold reserves, which are among the biggest in the world. He says the US is creating “Hollywood stories” about narco-trafficking to portray him as the villain and justify https://t.co/GjRagxH3rV " / X If that's so, you ae going to 'own' a lot more gold for longer... The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Shocking stat of the day: US federal debt will reach $150 TRILLION by 2055, according to the CBO's own forecast. This would be ~$1.6 million of debt per American household, up from the current ~$274,000. It would also push the US Debt-to-GDP ratio to a record 169%, up from https://t.co/3RSnaF74Ta " / X Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "Considering the posts below are from a sitting US Treasury Secretary widely seen as Fed Chair Powell's closest ally in the Administration, they are indicative of a broadening and deepening loss of political support for the Federal Reserve's leadership and the institution itself. https://t.co/xY8j9nhY6s " / X

Markets : Oracle's big beat ? (+30% after hours but again some Q's with front loading all the good news....basically missed but promised 500bn of projected data center backlog..), no neg reaction to BLS revision (all exp), indexes continue to grind higher, new highs after new highs as rates stay soft and market awaits FED cuts, FX super quiet really still, 10's UST yields shouldn't drop below 4% area, metals remain firm, geopolitics not affecting markets per say, other than few specifics Geopolitics :  Poland may invoke NATO Article 4 after Russian drone attack , huge Russian drone attack on UKR again and polish airspace violated 'repeatedly by drone objects'',   Israel hits Hamas leaders in Qatar, Nepal (between China and India..) lost its PM and its parliament was burned down, Macron appointed 39-year old Defense Minister Lecornu as his latest prime minister ( a lot of blocking traffic going on already ..), U.S payrolls revised down 911K... that's half the job previously announced (how can they get so wrong..) Trump posted that he still expects to get a trade deal agreed with India; and yet....he also told the EU to put 100% tariffs on China and India to force Putin to stop attacking Ukraine BoJ may cut 10-25 year JGB purchases in October-December plan - Sources, BoJ is said to see US trade deal removing some risks to growth Merz: Everything indicates that Putin's imperialist plan would not end with the conquest of Ukraine, but would only begin with it The US is ending its cooperation with Europe in countering disinformation from Russia, China, and Iran — the Financial Times Eu Eco / Draghi Plan - Europe slow-walks Draghi plan as global rivals surge - 1y after former Italian PM’s report on competitiveness, EU implements just 11% of his ideas -FT Netanyahu: Israel solely responsible for strike on Hamas in Qatar Questions raised over how Israel could strike high-security neighbourhood in Qatar (1) NEXTA on X: "⚡ Poland may invoke NATO Article 4 after Russian drone attack Polish media report that the country is considering triggering NATO’s Article 4, which allows any member state to call consultations if its territorial integrity, political independence, or security is under threat. https://t.co/FtKeWNcZ6y " / X ‘Block everything’: Nationwide protests set to disrupt travel across France today | Euronews Nick Timiraos on X: "Fed nominee Stephen Miran says employment growth this year reflects policy changes around immigration and the federal workforce. "Tight monetary policy is likely also negatively affecting labor demand particularly among small- and medium-sized businesses." He says some firms" / X Poland shoots down Russian drones after 'unprecedented airspace violation' - live updates - BBC News India eyes first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to replace aging fleet 'Share the pain together': Trump tells EU to slap 100% tariffs on India, China to choke Russia’s oil lifeline Trump admin turning up the heat on BLS Supreme Court will hear Trump tariffs case on fast track BOJ likely to trim super-long bond buying in Q4 - The Business Times China's consumer prices fall more than expected in August as deflation woes persist Oracle’s stock surges toward its best day since 1999. These huge numbers explain why. SML pumps €1.3 billion into Europe's AI hopeful Mistral 'Share the pain together': Trump tells EU to slap 100% tariffs on India, China to choke Russia’s oil lifeline Ferrari evokes spirit of 1980s with new 849 Testarossa hybrid Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk to cut 9,000 jobs in restructuring | The Straits Times Britain’s US ambassador Mandelson appeared to call Epstein ‘best pal’ – POLITICO Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Chancellor Merz: Everything indicates that Putin's imperialist plan would not end with the conquest of Ukraine, but would only begin with it. The fact that Ukraine is also defending our freedom in Europe, that we are defending it together with Ukraine, is not just political https://t.co/xHeJcDlyeV " / X Tether Considers Gold Supply Chain Investments Backed by $8.7B Reserves

Markets : French Premier Bayrou resigns, no surprise there, lost confidence vote/see below, complicated negotiations coning!.. . The U.S economy is flashing warning signs from both jobs and inflation, shipments to the U.S plunged, SOFR 4.42% 'tight, sign of repo markets cash is harder to come by than FED suggest', SPX returns 'extremely' concentraded in Sep, some saying short-term risk is 'melt-up mode with cuts into inflation', which never ends well, when/how we shall see, Epstein files in the background too..!, 10's UST 4.05% lowest yields in 5months (slowdown, recession risk) $7.4 Trillion is now sitting in money market funds, an all-time high = money that doesnt NOT want to take on #duration risk, and stays in cash JPMORGAN WARNS OF FED RATE CUT PULLBACK JPMorgan’s trading desk warns the Fed’s expected September 17 rate cut could spark a “Sell the News” drop in US stocks. Despite the S&P 500’s 30% rebound since April, risks from inflation, weak jobs, tariffs, and seasonal September weakness remain. JPMorgan suggests hedging with VIX calls and adding gold, though history shows rate cuts outside recessions can still lift markets." WSJ- Strongly worded critique of Trump's pressure on Fed by Citadel's CEO Ken Griffin #macro U.S economy >>> labour stats in limbo land, economy seems paralysed wiht uncertainy/inaction, folks withdrawing cash frompensions, car market subprime loans on highs, no buying or selling of houses to speak of either... NY Fed consumer survey for August: "The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8 pp to 44.9%, the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013." Trump targets the EU with tariff threat over tech penalties Fixed minimum prices for solar in Switzerland under threat in EU deal Saudi Aramco ends at its second lowest ever daily closing at 23.25 riyals (market cap of $1.499 trillion). Only during the worst of the pandemic and Saudi-Russia oil price war in Mar 2020, with Brent at ~$20, did Aramco close lower for a single day | UK gilts, the BBC was doing some special disaster scenario chatters on gilts 10days ago..2nd september....not kidding....strangely enough BBC not talking about Gilts rallying hard since...well over 20bps down in yield terms..5.7% to 5.47% now... Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?. The entire U.S. economy is being propped up by the promise of productivity gains that seem very far from materializing/TheAtlantic French Premier Bayrou resigns, no surprise there, lost confidence vote Bayrou lost a confidence motion in parliament, forcing a third change in government in just over a year and reviving uncertainty over how the country can tackle its mounting debt burden. Parties across the political spectrum in France’s lower house joined forces Monday to overwhelmingly issue the rebuke to Bayrou, who called the motion in a failed attempt to rally support for his unpopular budget reforms. Just 194 lawmakers voted in support of the prime minister and 364 voted against. Macron will accept Bayrou’s resignation on Tuesday and name a new premier in the coming days, according to a statement from the president’s office. The new government will still have to find a way to pass a budget, an exercise that has now toppled the last two prime ministers. France is “drowning in a tide of debt,” Bayrou told lawmakers Monday ahead of the vote. “You have the power to bring down the government but you don’t have the power to erase reality. Trump’s Risky Game With the Fed - WSJ Citadel CEO Ken Griffin to Trump: Don't mess with the Fed François Bayrou Ousted As French Prime Minister After Confidence Vote Defeat - i24NEWS Worker confidence in finding a new job hits record low in New York Fed survey Are We in an AI Bubble? - The Atlantic The premise of AI—supposed superiority across the board—is challenged in side‑by‑side people‑versus‑machine tests, and in this case the machine lost. On the other hand, evidence is piling up that AI is failing to deliver in the real world. The tech giants pouring the most money into AI are nowhere close to recouping their investments. Research suggests that the companies trying to incorporate AI have seen virtually no impact on their bottom line. And economists looking for evidence of AI-replaced job displacement have mostly come up empty. Tesla’s board offers Musk $1 trillion to stay focused Fake news spread abroad about Switzerland is a liability - SWI swissinfo.ch Trump lashes out at EU over Google fine and threatens tariff probe Trump's court losses are piling up. Here's why that's not slowing him down | CBC News House Democrats release lewd birthday note Trump allegedly sent to Epstein U.S. economy flashes warning signs on jobs and inflation Shipments to U.S. plunge after Trump ends de minimis tariff exemption Fixed minimum prices for solar in Switzerland under threat in EU deal - SWI swissinfo.ch The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The car market bubble is bursting: Subprime auto loan delinquency rates have now surpassed 5% for the first time in history. The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED over the last 3 years. Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points https://t.co/JQgYfMJiXv " / X The British public is being gaslit about Angela Rayner - New Statesman EndGame Macro on X: "SOFR. the rate for borrowing cash overnight against Treasuries has climbed to 4.42%. More importantly, the gap between SOFR and the Fed funds rate has widened, which basically means repo markets are saying cash is a bit harder to come by than the Fed’s official rate suggests." / X Revealed: how Boris Johnson traded PM contacts for global business deals | Boris Johnson | The Guardian 205. Are Reform Looking For An Argentine Tango? - The Rest Is Money | Podcast on Spotify Starmer "Tried to Sack Ed Miliband From Net Zero Brief But He Refused to Go" – The Daily Sceptic The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Shocking stat of the day: US federal debt will reach $150 TRILLION by 2055, according to the CBO's own forecast. This would be ~$1.6 million of debt per American household, up from the current ~$274,000. It would also push the US Debt-to-GDP ratio to a record 169%, up from https://t.co/3RSnaF74Ta " / X Own GOLD..and other metals..

Markets :  Equity markets new highs as bonds rallied on US Jobs data coming in weaker than expected, USD should weaken on softer data this afternoon (all about bonds), escalating feud with Venezuela, U.S. debt is spiralling at record speed >> on July 2, 2025, it stood at $36.2 trillion 2month later we are at $37.3 trillion.... totally out of control #UST and #GOLD, 90% of all SPY gains for the last 30 years have happened since the Fed started QE >>> gold new highs, yields rising to 20+ years highs, SPX wants to go to 7'000, as the FED is going to cut in a 3% inflation environment for years to come and deficit spending keeps coming, own assets, take your pick ! or be left behind..if what Mr Market is about... >>>> Mounting evidence labor market softening, ''Too late in danger of being too late'', JOLTS openings and CB's Jobs Plentiful (dual axis warning), BUT...markets maybe seeing this he wrong way round....>>> .. AI + migrant OUTFLOW means that you will need much fewer for a solid economy.. and fewer changes going on, as employers rather keep than have to look outside Trump said he would be imposing tariffs on semiconductor imports “very shortly” but spare goods from companies like Apple Inc. that have pledged to boost their US investments. Initial Jobless Claims 237K vs 230K Est and ADP Nonfarm Payrolls 54K vs 68K Est, Miran: If confirmed, “I will act independently as the Federal Reserve always does.” France - Squeezed French millennials blame boomers in backlash over soaring deficit   >>> France is stuck - A failure to spend less is at the root of the country’s political problems This is absolutely insane: In 5 days, the BLS is set to revise US jobs numbers for the 12 months ending March 2025. According to Goldman Sachs, a DOWNWARD revision of up to -950,000 jobs is coming US and Taiwanese defence officials held secret talks in Alaska JAPAN's financial structure has been built for decades around super LOW yields and a stable JPY, both been going the wrong way lately.... pressure building fast...and overall low yield structure kept yields lower worldwide #carrytrade risk G lobal rise in long-term government bond yields we're seeing now is happening against a backdrop where many countries shifted debt issuance to very short-term issuance (red) in recent years, that kept long-term yields artificially low and may now be coming back to haunt us. charts below / Thread GOLD is the canary, gold moving higher says thre is a problem, the problem is U.S debt, corp and household debt, and all debt rely one thing and one thing only, the UST market, credibility and thus low yields... the bond market screems of fragility...and thats mainly why gold is heading higher (IMHO it's most fiat currencies lower vs Gold higher, fiscal going global etc) >>> Goldman Sachs expects gold to surge to $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026. If the Fed's credibility gets significantly eroded, GS sees gold nearing $5,000. Gold prices have already doubled in the past three years. U.S. will suffer a debt-induced heart attack within a few years warns Ray Dalio Novo Nordisk Woes and Trump’s Tariffs Dent Danish Growth Outlook Goldman Says Gold Near $5,000 Possible If Fed Standing Damaged Trump warns of ‘fairly substantial’ chip tariffs; signals Apple, others safe Stephen Miran Federal Reserve confirmation hearing: Live coverage | American Banker Trump signs order to cut tariffs on Japanese car imports - Nikkei Asia US and Taiwanese defence officials held secret talks in Alaska Squeezed French millennials blame boomers in backlash over soaring deficit Investors are dumping bonds globally while gold is soaring. Here's why The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is absolutely insane: In 5 days, the BLS is set to revise US jobs numbers for the 12 months ending March 2025. According to Goldman Sachs, a DOWNWARD revision of up to -950,000 jobs is coming. This would be the biggest downward revision since 2010. What is happening https://t.co/rmmFegq3SW " / X Nick Timiraos on X: "Miran: If confirmed, “I will act independently as the Federal Reserve always does.” In his opening statement, Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott doesn’t address Trump’s attempt to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed’s board." / X Trump's Venezuela mission: What to know "We've never seen this before": Trump's drug war looks like a real war Polestar suffers increased Q2 loss amid tariff challenges '''As a reminder, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) - which annual summit was the occasion for their gathering - is the world's largest regional organization. Many people don't realize this but the SCO is even (slightly) bigger than BRICS+: the combined GDP PPP of the 27 SCO countries is $82.28 trillion (39.8% of the world's GDP PPP) vs $82.06 trillion (39.7%) for the 10 BRICS+ members''' Arnaud Bertrand on X: "As is all too often the case, we've seen much commentary of the optics of Xi, Modi and Putin get-together in Tianjin, but almost no-one spent the time analyzing the actual output of their discussion. Which is a shame because that's the real consequential stuff. As a reminder, https://t.co/0hfxcbS6Xd " / X Robin Brooks on X: "The global rise in long-term government bond yields we're seeing now is happening against a backdrop where many countries shifted debt issuance to very short-term issuance (red) in recent years. That kept long-term yields artificially low and may now be coming back to haunt us.. https://t.co/t0MdIisDUT " / X Ray Dalio warns US heading to a “debt-induced heart attack” in three years - USD to hurt | investingLive Sanofi phase 3 eczema win falls below analyst expectations Metals One strikes deal to treat uranium from Colorado mine waste – The Armchair Trader

JPN 30y yields hit an all time highs near 3.30% yesterday and the JPY is near all time lows, clearly not a good cocktail, something is going to give sooner or later Market : Trump unhappy with Xi parading with his new friends, FED's Waller now wants a cut in Sep (it is now pretty much 100pct expected and priced), JOLTS : construction quits & leading indicator at levels not seen GFC (FRED chart available on request), the delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SPIKED to 11.7%, an all time highs, global yields off slightly yesterday (weak US data), fiscal risk going global is 'the' risk from here on and its implication on politics, risk assets, budgets etc Tragedy has struck Lisbon’s funicular railway PARIS — French politics are so paralyzed that the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron — an idea once only whispered in the corridors of power — is now being openly debated Xi Jinping — flanked by Putin and Kim — speaks of choice between war and peace at huge parade. Event marking 80 years since Japan's defeat in WWII meant to project China's military, diplomatic power GOLD : record highs again, but why ? the rise in prices reflects more than just commodity movements—it offers insight into broader shifts in the global financial system. These record highs highlight how foreign central banks and investors are reshaping/have reshaped their risk management strategies, particularly around currencies and government bonds Putin: We have always opposed Ukraine becoming a NATO member, but we have never objected to its membership in the EU #RBA Australia’s central bank chief signals fewer rate cuts if spending persists GS: We see risks arising that can create an environment where commodity prices rise, while equity and bonds sell off, much like in 2022 Houston-based ConocoPhillips says it will reduce workforce by 20-25% Trump: harder to win ai race against China without tariffs Fewest murders in London in summer since 2018 Apple - said to be developing AI-powered web search tool “World Knowledge Answers,” may use Google’s Gemini for Siri AI Goldman Sachs warns AI bubble could burst datacenter boom ‘I haven’t seen this much uncertainty since 1968’: Even a Macron resignation won’t save France – POLITICO Australia’s central bank chief signals fewer rate cuts if spending persists By Investing.com Fed Governor Waller says fed should start cutting rates Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump issues threat to Putin if US unhappy with his decision on peace Israel-Gaza War: Trump Tells Hamas To Give Back ‘All 20 Hostages’ And ‘It Will End’ Nick Timiraos on X: "Job openings fell in July to the lowest level since September 2024, holding the 3-month average close to 7.4 million openings. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers edged just below 1 for the first time since early 2021. https://t.co/9CghdR9hZ1 " / X Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "GS: We see risks arising that can create an environment where commodity prices rise, while equity and bonds sell off, much like in 2022. https://t.co/34qBYhwEu2 " / X ConocoPhillips says it will cut workforce by 20-25%, shares fall How the Google antitrust ruling reshapes search, AI, and more Unemployed workers surpass job openings in labor market warning sign Xi Jinping — flanked by Putin and Kim — speaks of choice between war and peace at huge parade | CBC News (1) CALL TO ACTIVISM on X: "🚨MAJOR BREAKING: Donald Trump has shattered 50 YEARS of U.S. foreign policy - and the world is now more dangerous than ever. It’s official: Trump has pushed Russia, North Korea, and even India - the largest democracy on Earth - into China’s arms. Today, for the world to see, https://t.co/dOZiaf80xa " / X (1) Tymofiy Mylovanov on X: "Putin: We have always opposed Ukraine becoming a NATO member, but we have never objected to its membership in the EU. Every country has the right to choose its own security system, this also applies to Ukraine, but not at the expense of another country’s security. 1/ https://t.co/QmVnKpLouR " / X Fewest London murders in summer since 2018, says mayor's office Tragedy has struck Lisbon’s funicular railway. A transport expert explains how these old-fashioned trains work

Markets : #duration Global long term bond yields are rising it would seem a mistake to ignore what is going on here...Trump apparently is mad at Putin again, he got totally outmaneuver ed, Xi hails 'great regeneration of China' with dramatic show of military might, The French Socialist party — the swing vote the government needs for survival — has refused to back Bayrou’s confidence motion, this month marks 33years of Saxo (Kim's clip below), markets beginning to react, the casual reaction to FED badgering always looked pretty bizzare...bonds, MOVE index, VIX beginning to react, and risk, USD might well see bouts of strength, short covering on more risk off, metals would appear to be the only winners... (fiscal gong global) The US has revoked Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's authorization to ship essential gear to its main Chinese chipmaking base GOLD during ''PIIGS or european soverreign bond crisis... reminder that last time we had a bond crisis in 2009-2011 period, gold almost doubled in priced from 1k to 2K.. Russia and China sign deal to build new Siberia gas pipeline, big news clearly SAP to invest over 20 billion euros in ‘sovereign cloud’ in boost to Europe’s AI ambitions With the RRP cushion gone,  bank reserves have been falling, although at $3.21tn they remain fairly comfortably above the $3tn mark  where we've seen funding issues in the past After Norway, UK in advanced talks to build warships for Denmark and Sweden Xi hails 'great regeneration of China' with dramatic show of military might Why Japan's long-term bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs How France's government reached the brink of collapse - and the staggering numbers behind its debt crisis SAP to invest over 20 billion euros in sovereign cloud in Europe Neil Sethi on X: "With the RRP cushion gone, bank reserves have been falling, although at $3.21tn they remain fairly comfortably above the $3tn mark where we've seen funding issues in the past. Still, that is down from $3.6tn Apr 10th (the highs of the year) and is now the least since May. I https://t.co/QGe7gMUckT " / X Germany's far-right AfD suffers series of candidate deaths ahead of local vote - BBC News Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is huge: China and Russia apparently just signed a "legally binding" memorandum on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which they'd been discussing for years. This pipeline will bring Russian gaz that's located in the Yamal peninsula in the country's North-West, the same gaz https://t.co/5bHCkzLQQo " / X Saxo on X: "This month marks 33 years of Saxo. Looking back, technology has always been at the core of our journey – from being one of the first banks to move trading online to today, where the pace of innovation is transforming every corner of finance and beyond. In this clip, our CEO, https://t.co/inSZsr53dj " / X India's consumption push could ease the impact of Trump's tariffs

GOLD new highs, what else! Markets : still no show from Trump.. ?, Syria exports first crude oil shipment in 14 years, BYD : scale meets price war (Saxo research), VdL's plane was forced to land blind after 'russia jammed GPS', BRICS Leaders Schedule Virtual Meeting to Discuss Trump Tariffs, is France the new Italy (will find out shortly), CTA positioning in US equities officially sits in the 100th percentile and is now max long (chart available), #duration global yields sending a clear message (fiscal risk going global), equity markets stable/slightly softer/losing momentum, metals higher, in fact this is the only asset up very lately, as Trump put pressure on FED, even BTC is down 10% off highs recently, and we now have the new world order with China, Russia and India.. thanks to recent politicla fragility, shall we say, in US and Europe..Ukraine was part of the EU’s tariff deal with the US — Politico India reduced exposure to UST0s while boosting GOLD holdings in FX reserves A little bit of a U-turn >>> Fed should be independent but has made mistakes, Treasury Secretary Bessent says, and Putin has, in a despicable manner, increased the bombing campaign [of Ukraine]. So I think with President Trump, all options are on the table, and I think we'll be examining those very closely this week. BoJ`s Himino said the CBk should keep raising interest rates but warned of high risks to the economy Trump calls India-U.S. trade relationship ‘a totally one sided disaster’ after Modi visits China, China's Xi rolls out carpet for Ukraine war aggressors, sidelining Trump China called on the Global South to follow it, Russia, and India in embracing “free trade” and a “more just and reasonable global governance system.” (FT); or ‘China unveils plan for new world order’ (Telegraph) as “Xi Jinping lashes out at ‘bullying behaviour’ in apparent attack on Trump’s tariff war against Beijing” France - French Far Right Builds Momentum as Premier Heads Toward Exit - The party's president, Jordan Bardella, and its prominent figure, Marine Le Pen, have made clear their intention to bring down the government, which is also opposed by the left. President Emmanuel Macron could appoint a new prime minister, but Bardella suggests another election might be inevitable due to the political stalemate, with Le Pen saying her party is ready for whenever Macron decides to dissolve the National Assembly Nestlé Fires CEO Following probe of pomantic Relationship with subordinate - Laurent Freixe is out after just a year in the top job at the food giant, which is trying to sell a number of underperforming businesses ADB to fund Pakistan's core Belt and Road TheEconomist "Fear the deficit-populism doom loop: Politicians, particularly in Europe, are in a terrible bind." Spain, often heard the economy is booming lately, yet 10.4% unemployment, youth unemployment nearer to 23% .. Trump calls India-U.S. trade relationship 'a totally one sided disaster' China’s Xi Jinping rolls out ‘red carpet’ for Russia’s Vladimir Putin BYD scale meets price war | Saxo Gold touches new record as latest Wall Street prediction sees prices reaching $3,500 Own it..own them (metals)...and #GDX #SIL etc Syria reowm them (metals) and sumes heavy crude oil exports from Tartus port after years of suspension Trump news at a glance: Bessent says markets not worried by Fed interference as Lagarde warns of ‘danger’ | Trump administration | The Guardian Marine Le Pen seizes her moment to shake France – POLITICO The student loan tax bomb hidden in Trump's new bill Nestle dismisses chief executive after probe into relationship with employee ADB to fund Pakistan's core Belt and Road project as China steps aside - Nikkei Asia Reeves sidelined as Starmer hires new economic team in surprise reshuffle (1) Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From the article in @TheEconomist, "Fear the deficit-populism doom loop: Politicians, particularly in Europe, are in a terrible bind." #economy #deficit #debt #markets https://t.co/rblqN5JfpR " / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from #Spain, which still has the highest unemployment rate in Europe at 10.4%, despite a booming economy & housing market. The culprit is Spain’s rigid labor rules, which have created a two-tier system dominated by temporary contracts. Precarious jobs are common, https://t.co/FMlhfiI6TO " / X NEXTA on X: "Ukraine was part of the EU’s tariff deal with the US — Politico The EU made concessions to the US in the trade war, agreeing to 15% tariffs and abandoning countermeasures in exchange for American support for Ukraine. This was openly confirmed for the first time by European https://t.co/WVlCt8m2K7 " / X

Week ahead : U.S labour day today, Aug ISM tom, JOLTS Wed, ADP and Friday's NFP report in focus, U.S court ruls many of Trump's global tariffs are illegal, China's Xi, Russia's Putin share vision for new global order at security forum, 25+ foreign postal services suspended mail to the U.S. in the run-up to the de minimis deadline on Friday, investors underestimate Trump's threat to the FED, and finally, Tension between US, Venezuela rises with military buildup Markets : few rumours regrading Trump's health, he hasn't made public remarks since 25th August, and Epstein files again, tariffs to India all about nobel prize vote, NVDA down BABA up, QQQ SPX closed on highs, hard to think of many reasons why investors will want to chase this higher over next few weeks! France risk coming up in Sep >>> expect a correction, buy some vols, await patiently, no need to chase higher from here. Metals continue higher, what else..FED cutting in a 3% inflation environment... XAG finally 40+, XPT and PALL got room to shine too.. No longer enemies? Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi meet for the first time in 7 years, pledging closer ties as they brace for the economic fallout from the US trade war UK secures largest ever warship deal from Norway, Norway canceled plans for purchase of US ships after seeing Trump admin turn off Ukraine's weapons abilities remotely, ordered $13.5 billion in UK built ships France's Olivier Faure, leader of the French socialists, confirms his party will vote ‘no confidence.’ So Bayrou and his budget will be toast on Sept 8th The number of unemployed people in Germany surged above 3 million for the first time in a decade, labour office figures showed on Friday, as the labour market of Europe's biggest economy is squeezed by two years of economic contraction Axios: Trump considering stepping back from Ukraine peace talks. WH official: “We are going to sit back and watch. Let them fight it out for a while and see what happens.” The reason Trump increased tariffs on India has nothing to do with its purchase of Russian oil, and nothing to do with Russia’s genocide in Ukraine. It’s all, ridiculously, because India wouldn’t nominate Trump for the Nobel peace prize On the surface the U.S. economy still looks fine, but underneath the hood things are slowing down #macro / Thread Swiss Gold Industry Lobby Rejects Idea of US Relocation - Switzerland’s trade group for gold refiners opposes a relocation of some operations to the US to ease a trade imbalance between the countries and help tariff negotiations, newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung reported The U.S. is demanding that the EU give up Russian oil and gas and impose sanctions on India and China, Axios reports . According to the outlet, the U.S. does not want to bear the costs of pressuring Russia alone and wants Europe to make a more significant contribution. Washington is urging Europe to impose measures against Russia that include a complete halt to all oil and gas purchases, as well as the introduction of EU secondary tariffs against India and China, similar to those already applied by the U.S. to India. Economists worry Trump could overhaul Federal Reserve Tension between US, Venezuela rises with military buildup Fed governor Cook to seek court order blocking her firing by Trump Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin says he and Trump came to ‘understanding’ about how to end war at Alaska summit China’s Xi welcomes Putin and Modi as Trump roils global order – POLITICO New world order... Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida killed in Gaza, claims Israel French PM Bayrou should 'say goodbye,' says Socialist leader Scottish shipyards to build more frigates after Norway deal US court rules many of Trump's global tariffs are illegal - BBC News NEXTA on X: "🇨🇳🇮🇳 No longer enemies? Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi meet for the first time in 7 years The two longtime Asian rivals pledged to deepen cooperation, Bloomberg reports. China’s leader said the countries need to be friends and good neighbors: “The Dragon and the Elephant must https://t.co/pDFPRpKakZ " / X EndGame Macro on X: "On the surface the U.S. economy still looks fine, but underneath the hood things are slowing down. Growth trackers like the Fed’s weekly index are sitting around 2% not a collapse, but weaker than the bounce we saw last year. Even the Atlanta Fed is still showing Q3 growth at" / X US makes it harder for SK Hynix, Samsung to make chips in China | Reuters Divisions at the Bank of England: a balancing act – The Armchair Trader Exclusive-Meta created flirty chatbots of Taylor Swift, other celebrities without permission

Taxes, land taxes, wealth taxes, could other countries go similar to US with worldwide taxes in the future ? stealth taxes through higher tariffs coming and/or cut government spending (bondvigilantes are watching..) - French and UK budget up next in focus Markets : important PCE today (2.9% core exp), NFP next Friday and payroll adjustment on 9th Sep, French confidence vote 8th Sep, ECB meeting 10th Sep, and FOMC 17th Sep, French backlash very likely, much higher taxes rerquired/cut spending, same UK budget coming up (30th October), Trump's fight with everyone continues, the EU might actually stand up on Techs, yields curves steepening globally ( Japan’s bond market just flashed its weakest signal in 16 years) , #NVDA overdone, The Fed’s $2.5 TRILLION cash sponge has almost vanished (KEY..), and U.S tariffs exemptions on small orders ends today >>>> best be prepared and buy a bit of vol/hedge/reduce risk #NVDA Sales growth is down 20% last 4 qtrs with $1.5T equity mkt cap added over that same period, The income statement says they made $26.4B, up 56% YoY. The cash flow statement says operating cash flow is flat YoY and free cash flow is down 50% QoQ First fall in German unemployment claims since late 2022 and the IAB survey is flying, positive turn of event there! Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit on Thursday claiming President Donald Trump has no power to remove her from office Stand up to Trump on Big Tech, says EU antitrust chief. Bloc must be prepared to walk away from trade deal with US if it retaliates against Brussels’ digital laws, warns Teresa Ribera Yield curves keep steepening globally , particularly driven by 30-year yields. In US, the gap between 2-year and 30-year bond yields has reached the widest since January 2022 AI Déjà Vu. The AI spending boom is a bubble — reminscent of that which sparked a major wave of services restructuring in the 1990s / Stephen Roach 1987 Echoes in 2025: Inflation Credibility and Market Fragility Silver hits highest closing price in almost 14 years French PM faces backlash over holiday excuse A US tariff exemption for small orders ends Friday. It's a big deal to some shoppers and businesses Lisa Cook: Trump appointee Bill Pulte files 2nd criminal referral Stand up to Trump on Big Tech, says EU antitrust chief – The Irish Times Trump White House picks Kennedy deputy Jim O’Neill to replace fired CDC chief – The Irish Times Angela Rayner purchases second home for over £700,000 sparking 'hypocrisy' claims Treasury ‘considering taxing landlords’ rent’ to raise £2bn | Property | The Guardian New Zealand Central Bank Chair Neil Quigley resigns 1987 Echoes in 2025: Inflation Credibility and Market Fragility AI Déjà Vu - by Stephen Roach - Conflict Generative AI reshapes U.S. job market, Stanford study shows Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump says he is ‘not happy’ about Kyiv strike as US approves new missiles sale Tesla Robotaxi fails miserably in Cathie Wood street test - TheStreet Tesla Europe sales plunge 40%, Chinese EV rival BYD up 225% Nvidia's top two mystery customers made up 39% of its Q2 revenue NVIDIA: From hyper growth to high growth, but is it enough? – The Armchair Trader When Art Meets Influence: Inside the Magic of Locarno Wife of jailed South Korean ex-president indicted for corruption abribery and stock manipulation Energy giant investigated over wood sourcing after whistleblower claims Just comnplete nonsense and nearly outright fraud, lies from UK officials, take your pick StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 Japan’s bond market just flashed its weakest signal in 16 years. The country’s 2-year government bond auction just collapsed in demand. This tiny crack could ripple into U.S. rates, mortgages, and the entire Fed outlook. (a thread) https://t.co/cnkthzHCc8 " / X StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 The Fed’s $2.5 TRILLION cash sponge has almost vanished. Now the balance is down 99%, just $22B left. This collapse could mark the most important shift in market plumbing in years. (a thread) https://t.co/6RJM317IdA " / X

Denmark's foreign minister has summoned the top United States diplomat in the country following reports of alleged covert influence operations in Greenland . Markets : NVDA 'as expected?, earnings slowdown, china risk, $60bn sharebuybacks is most of their cash, for now every $10 invested brings $3 of earnings¨¨...cant' last, in reality it's a slight miss, depends on what you want to look at, as always....', India braces for 50% tariffs, GOOG has eliminated 35% of managers last 12months, markets closing on highs at end of August, metals, #GDX and #SIL been performing super well still (finally the penny is dropping..), september next up : FED decision, ECB, French no confidence vote, political crisis possibly, very highly valued and concentrated risk (MAG7 etc)..and much more >>> an easy hedge for Sep/Oct ? buy some #VIX Axios : President Trump is gradually testing, stretching and gutting the independence of America’s major institutions, leaving few stones unturned in his pursuit of unchecked power Russian and Chinese submarines carried out their first joint patrol in the Asia-Pacific, Modi issues buy India-made call as Trump's 50% tariffs take effect Japan’s Core CPI inflation is now ABOVE US Core CPI inflation for the first time in 48 years, excluding periods of sales tax hikes EU to Propose Removing US Tariffs This Week to Meet Trump Demand  . The EU will seek to fast track legislation to remove all tariffs on US industrial goods by the end of the week. The European Commission will give preferential tariff rates on certain seafood and agricultural goods, according to people familiar with the matter. US CDC chief fired after weeks in role, challenges ouster as four top officials resign Europe’s Century of humiliation” could be just beginning’ and ‘EU doomed to “irrelevance” in face of US, Chinese competition, Meloni warns’ - as ‘France’s PM warns: “The life of the nation is at stake” over his budget-related no-confidence vote “Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead.” Paul Tudor Jones Nvidia's $15B China Shock: Earnings Showdown Could Jolt Entire Market Dan Niles on X: "I thought NVDA would report a very strong quarter and was more concerned about their China commentary. I was wrong. In reality, they missed expectations of datacenter revs (though by just 1%) for the first time since the intro of ChatGPT in late 2022 and beat overall rev" / X ''' when there is an issue with a semiconductor company after a few years of beating consistently, one should beware…!!??... NVDA’s miss in datacenter revs is despite a strong quarter from NVDA's big hyperscaler customers and strong capex expectations''' Bank of Korea raises GDP and inflation forecasts; keeps rates unchanged Japan's top trade negotiator reportedly cancels U.S. trip Denmark summons US envoy over claims of interference in Greenland EU doomed to ‘irrelevance’ in face of US, Chinese competition, Meloni warns – POLITICO Russian, Chinese Submarines Conduct 1st-Ever Joint Patrol In Pacific Region Iran warns European powers of consequences for sanctions at nuclear talks | Nuclear Energy News | Al Jazeera Trump's 50% tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases take effect Trump Knee-Caps America’s Institutions French political crisis brings back recession risk, Carrefour CEO says US CDC chief fired after weeks in role, challenges ouster as four top officials resign | Reuters Trump administration to take control of Washington's Union Station | Reuters Google executive says company has cut a third of its managers P/E no-one cares, but it is 200+ Tesla Europe sales plunge 40%, Chinese EV rival BYD up 225% Germany: Rheinmetall opens new artillery ammunition factory The Kobeissi Letter on X: "It's official: Japan’s Core CPI inflation is now ABOVE US Core CPI inflation for the first time in 48 years, excluding periods of sales tax hikes. Japan's Core CPI was 3.4% in July, one of the highest readings since the 1980s. By comparison, US core CPI inflation was 3.1%. https://t.co/ZjLsDImP1B " / X

Markets : Get set for end of FED independence (and thus other CB's eventually), French FM talks possible need of IMF bailout!..huge budge decision coming, things starting to look ugly (got to hedge some EURO here, see below), and won't be long until China/Russia/India loose their pentience with Trump... >>> All ears and eyes on NVDA, markets way too rich (buybacks, liquidities the only thing holding them up), FED cuts all but priced in into 2026 too..and #macro economy slowing/slow at best in many parts #debtwilltearsusapart ! Fed - Get Ready for the End of Fed Independence - Markets haven’t yet grappled with the implications of the president having control over the central bank 'Powerful optics': China's Xi to welcome Putin, Modi in grand show of solidarity >>> there is only SO much they will take from Trump, before they go their own way... OK so tonight,  8% of the S&P and 14% of the NDX reports, oh hang on it's #NVDA ! The UST bond market has now fully priced 2 rate cuts by year-end and 3 more cuts in 2026. That would bring the Fed Funds Rate down to 3.00% (lower bound) #EURO >>>French politics, is another potentially BIG downside risk for EURO clearly (again), but this time we also have a EURO weighted index (NEER) close to all time highs and chine deflation inthe background, U. S tariffs, so some pretty good reasons for ECB to turn dovish and guide lower at next meeting >>> 2y French bonds trading highest in Europe, higher than Greece >>> next, will Athens send a Troika to PAris to dictate terms of theri fiscal plan..? ...reverse of 2010... Lutnick: "Think about this. We give hundreds of millions to each university. Tens of billions, up to $200 billion a year. They take that money and they do research and they get patents. And you know who keeps them? The scientists and the university. And we who pay all the money, the American taxpayers, we get nothing. This has got to change." U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick announces that the U.S. will be issuing economic data on blockchain, beginning with GDP data This is extraordinary. For the many of you who wonder how the EU could agree to such a humiliating "deal" with Trump, wonder no more/Thread Fed - Get Ready for the End of Fed Independence - Markets haven’t yet grappled with the implications of the president having control over the central bank - WSJ President Trump considering Stephen Miran and David Malpass as possible replacements for Lisa Cook on the Federal Reserve's board of governors - WSJ Trump’s Fed Gamble Risks Pushing Key Bond Rates Even Higher - the 10-year Treasury yield, which determines what Americans pay for mortgages, business loans, and other debts, has been stubbornly high due to tariffs, the budget deficit, and Trump's tax cuts. Trump's efforts to reshape the Fed could keep bond markets on edge and long-term debt yields elevated, as investors are concerned about the central bank's inflation-fighting credibility and autonomy - BBG   Trump push to fire Fed governor sends markets scrambling Why Trump firing Fed gov. Lisa Cook matters to YOU Trump’s punitive 50% tariff takes effect in India In the Matter of Lisa Cook - Paul Krugman Firing Lisa Cook is just th beginning fro Trump... (1) Aaron Rupar on X: "Scott Bessent praises Trump like a parent praises their 3-year-old https://t.co/z2ZiFDdFgx " / X Pentagon’s tech innovation head abruptly steps down - POLITICO US May Offer Air and Intelligence Support to Guard Peace in Ukraine https://www.reuters.com/world/china/powerful-optics-chinas-xi-welcome-putin-modi-grand-show-solidarity-2025-08-26/ Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is extraordinary. For the many of you who wonder how the EU could agree to such a humiliating "deal" with Trump, wonder no more. We have an unusually straightforward answer directly from the horse's mouth: Sabine Weyand, who's the Directorate-General for Trade at the EU https://t.co/YCqilWMjpQ " / X >>>> There you have it, she said the quiet part out loud: the EU is in such a terrible strategic situation and EU leaders have so little courage that they're unable and unwilling to say 'no' to even the most humiliating demands French finance minister sees risk of IMF intervention if government falls It's coming, unless they manage some DRASTIC spending cuts, big budget decision coming les amis.. French government likely to fall as PM faces new no-confidence vote over debt crisis Xi Unleashes China’s Biggest Purge of Military Leaders Since Mao Gaza latest: Hospital rejects Israel's claims troops 'saw Hamas camera' before deadly attack | World News | Sky News Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin’s forces breach Dnipropetrovsk while Moscow strikes key energy facility

September high volatility likely, as it often is/has been over the years (higher VOL=risk reduction) Markets : USD and UST's ( whatch long end #duration !) under pressure as FED independence questioned with the attempt at firing Lisa Cook, Musk sues APPL and OpenAI, saying they hurt competition, Trump also talked about 50% tariffs to hit India soon (and China on magnets!), French government risks collapse after Bayrou calls high-stakes confidence vote  (#EURJPY #EUR rather than UK, the IMF is more likely to be involved with France...), overall #macro picture is slowing from China, to the U.S and Europe... >>> The near 70% decline in the #VIX over the last 4-5months weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history (action:...time for a hedging trade, BUY some !), Japan 30y 3.22% too So let me get this straight: the Republican Party now supports consolidating power in a single individual to enforce protectionist tariffs, centrally manage the economy, take government ownership stakes in private companies, and pressure the Federal Reserve to create inflation in order to fund skyrocketing deficits Trump: China has to give us magnets, if they don't we'll charge them 200% tariff or something, he said he was removing Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage improprieties, though her term runs to 2038 and the legality of the move is unclear!..>>> This should be seen for what it is: a blatant shakedown and an attempt to strong-arm policymakers into lowering rates Fed independence questioned: The action deepened concerns about political interference at the central bank, following Trump’s past threats against Fed chairman Jerome Powell >>> Now that Trump has fired Cook (for cause), this could set off a chain reaction where Trump now appoints 2 more governors to the FOMC, Trump would hold a 4-3 majority on the board of governors (would move to 5-2 if Powell left after his chair is over) Latest updates Price to Earnings Ratio (TTM) Palantir: 487 Tesla: 197 NVIDIA: 57 Netflix: 51 Microsoft: 37 Amazon: 35 Apple: 35 S&P: 29 Meta: 27 Google: 22 Moody’s economist says U.S. is edging near recession — with some states already in one. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi placed blame on high tariffs and “restrictive” immigration policies for the economy’s downturn Australia blames Iran for two antisemitic attacks, expels its envoy Copper and potash are among six new proposed additions to the US Geological Survey's list of critical minerals... Moody’s chief economist says some states are in recession Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️This is the worst BEAR MARKET in US Treasuries in modern history: The 20-year US Treasury drawdown has been ~38% since 2020, the largest in at least 100 years. Not even the 1970s or 1980s saw such a large decline, even when inflation was much higher. Public debt crisis? https://t.co/KpHy4eWDxZ " / X French government risks collapse after Bayrou calls high-stakes confidence vote  – POLITICO French finance minister sees risk of IMF intervention if government falls De minimis exemption: European carriers suspend shipments and others Australia, Japan join countries suspending some parcel shipments to the US The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Fed Governor Cook says President Trump has no authority to fire her and that she will not resign. Fed Governor Cook’s lawyer said they plan to take “whatever actions are needed to prevent” Trump’s “illegal action.”" / X Trump threatens 200% tariff on China over magnet export curbs The authoritarian government .. Truth Details | Truth Social USGS expands critical minerals list to 54 - Metal Tech News Aaron Rupar on X: "Trump: "China intelligently went in and they sort of took a monopoly of the world's magnets. Nobody needed magnets until they convinced everybody 20 years ago, 'let's all do magnets.' There were many other ways that the world could have gone ... we're heavily into the world of https://t.co/TqQ4dMpWPb " / X Elon Musk's xAI sues Apple and OpenAI over AI competition Nissan shares fall over 6% as Mercedes-Benz plans to shed its stake Australia blames Iran for two antisemitic attacks, expels its envoy StockMarket.News on X: "🚨 Something strange is happening in China. Stocks just hit a 10-year high while the economy slumps. And the U.S. market is showing the exact same split. (a thread) https://t.co/itMArydEbS " / X