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JGB 10y yields up 1.97% / UBS cuts / USMCA risk / China's huge trade surplus / FOMC next up, 25bps priced in

  • rmd005
  • Dec 8, 2025
  • 4 min read

  • Trump's advisors are urgently telling the President to stop yelling at people about affordability/inflation ("it's a scam" or " a con") and take these concerns seriously...

  • Markets : in Japan, JGB yields continue to move up, 10y 1.97% now (high risk carry trade gets shaken during Dec/Jan low liquidities..), RBA up next later on tonight (exp unch), FOMC decision on Wed (25bps cut priced in), BoC meets too (very most likely unch), Brasil CB also meets, SNB on Thursday (not much priced in, I wouldn't be surprised of a surprise cut..), Musk denies $800 billion SpaceX valuation reports, deep job cuts at UBS coming (and Swiss government softens its stance on reserves, why...Oh the threat of leaving for NYC, that's comical..), U.S truck demand has collapsed by nearly 50%, Macron warns China on tariffs (due to huge trade surplus) >>> so all ears and eyes on FOMC, some sort of hawkish cut would not shock me, but we shall see, if so it could have a decent impact on markets, so play accordingly..

  • Trade : Trump threatens to take a wrecking ball to his own trade pact (USMCA), China’s trade surplus exceeded one trillion US dollars in the 11 months to Nov, round numbers do not matter in economics, but trends do (Macron warnings..)... This surplus will help China meet its official growth target, compensating for somewhat lackluster domestic demand though, Trump's new US security strategy openly echoes Kremlin language and Moscow is celebrating it...

  • Geopolitics : Chinese Jets Locked Radar on Japanese Fighters. Tokyo says incidents in international waters near Okinawa were dangerous, as diplomatic tensions with Beijing simmer. (WSJ),

  • U.S : Introducing Robinhood ACT-Wealth inequality has exploded while billionaires borrow against their assets and pay almost nothing in taxes

  • The U.S Treasury can’t afford a rise in financing costs: interest already consumes ~14% of federal outlays....(Thread)

  • Germany's Merz musters enough votes to pass pensions bill without opposition aid



'''Gaslighting the public about inflation whilst presiding over one of the biggest annual declines in the US Dollar Index ever and mafia-style bullying of the @federalreserve

 to slash interest rates by hundreds of basis points is all-time levels of out-of-touch billionaire arrogance'''... it'll be an interesting evening on Wed.. anything other than a cut and a dovish stance, may well upset markets going into year-end.... 2018 was brutal, not suggesting the same btu beware


I'll believe it when I see it, Russia needs to back down first on a few things.. >>> President Donald Trump said he’s disappointed in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s handling of a US proposal to end the war that began with Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Trump’s tone on Ukraine contrasted with comments in recent days about President Vladimir Putin’s reaction to the proposal. (BBG)






Will you use AI for your next holiday ?


..Last time the blue line hit this high on the upside, the USD was significantly devalued at the Plaza Accord, for consensus doesn't seem to care, let's watch, and be ready.. to a certain extent USD weakness vs our 2025 preferred precious metals is well under way and a sign for other USD's in 2026!











 
 
 

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