Fed :   Kashkari remained hawkish in his latest essay. He was agnostic about long-term r-star but saw upside risks to short-term r-star, which is relevant for the terminal rate of the next rate cutting cycle. He appears to be open-minded to potential rate hikes if the Fed is misperceiving the neutral policy rate. Druckenmiller to Powell : “Don’t go on 60 Minutes, you’re not a rock star; you’re the FED chair” >>> Vol 'crush' after main events FOMC/earnings/QRA etc, sharpish back to lows (MOVE index and VIX), pushing risk higher again pretty easily The New Cold War - The West must stand up to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, or it will be doomed. Historian Niall Ferguson on how to win the epic confrontation with the “Axis of Ill Will (Weltwoche article) China  slowed its official state of Gold adding “officially” just 2 tonnes of it in April , this is the lowest monthly increase since they began monthly purchases began a couple years ago, the rapid price increase cooling the golden whale's buying JPM : The US consumer’s net worth “has increased ~$37T, or +33.6%, since the beginning of 2020 , including $5T in realized capital gains from 2020 – 2022 SNCF : The CEO just got fired because of that deal with unions Putin inaugurated as president for fifth term with Russia under tight grip Oil falls as course of Gaza war remains uncertain, while cease-fire talks hang in the balance M&A will not help with looming copper shortage , warns Barrick chief Amid BHP approach for Anglo, prolific dealmaker says consolidation does not guarantee more production Apple's AI strategy includes making its own chips Fed may need to hold rates steady all year, Kashkari says ( msn.com ) Bank of Japan issues stronger warning over yen's impact on policy | Reuters talk talk, interventions not backed by hikes don't work, for long, but they hurt short-term markets Stanley Druckenmiller gives Biden's economic policies an 'F', blames the Fed for reigniting inflation ( cnbc.com ) >>> Squawk Box on X: "Investor Stanley Druckenmiller on Bidenomics: "If I were a professor, I'd give them an 'F'." https://t.co/WfsU4ecO6y " / X ( twitter.com ) WELL worth a listen - just 3mins The New Cold War ( weltwoche.ch ) The New Cold War The West must stand up to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, or it will be doomed. Historian Niall Ferguson on how to win the epic confrontation with the “Axis of Ill Will.” >>> well worth a read China’s overcapacity dilemma solvable with ‘painful’ industrial revamp, scholars say | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Apple is making its own custom AI chips ( qz.com ) Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent down as Gaza cease-fire uncertain ( cnbc.com ) M&A will not help with looming copper shortage, warns Barrick chief ( ft.com ) UBS sails past earnings estimates as it aims to draw a line under Credit Suisse deal ( msn.com ) Such a big world out there ! Carl Quintanilla on X: "JPMORGAN: The US consumer’s net worth “has increased ~$37T, or +33.6%, since the beginning of 2020, including $5T in realized capital gains from 2020 – 2022. Those capital gains, even if taxed at 37%, means that [Fed models] are undercounting Consumer cash levels by at least $3T.… https://t.co/57IDjtigOm " / X ( twitter.com ) Warren Buffett pays tribute to Charlie Munger on a 'tough day' for shareholders ( yahoo.com ) Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is absolutely priceless. And probably the most frightening clip you'll ever watch on the people in charge of the US economy. Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy https://t.co/1b31FPFPCQ " / X ( twitter.com ) I mean surely not... Gold market: China and the rest of the world are stocking up on gold ( smh.com.au ) Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth ( imf.org ) How wild boars are threatening Italy’s prosciutto ham industry ( yahoo.com ) How wild boars are threatening Italy’s prosciutto ham industry >>> you don't read headlines like this every day! SNCF CEO Jean-Pierre Farandou to be replaced after the Olympics, government says ( lefigaro.fr ) Brazil: Images show devastating impact of Rio Grande do Sul floods ( bbc.com ) Russia Rues Loss of Two Combat Planes in Just 72 Hours ( newsweek.com ) Putin inaugurated as president for fifth term with Russia under tight grip ( msn.com ) USDCHF - must hold around here 0.90+ to continue to push higher

Natural gas producers are bullish on demand as they see significant upside from the immense energy needs of artificial intelligence and data centers. Electricity demand is forecast to grow 20% by 2030, according to Wells Fargo ETH study : Energy transition is massively underestimated Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense? Europe’s rescue fund has nothing left to rescue. It could now become governments’ silver bullet for military investment instead Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine . Washington’s crackdown shows its leverage over global banking system Economist : Britain excels at getting foreigners up to speed economically, socially and culturally. It is (in this respect, at least) a model for the rest of the world Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser says low-income consumers are being 'cautious' about their spending habits Fed President Barkin was optimistic about the future path of inflation and the economy, as he believed the current stance of monetary policy is restrictive enough to slow the economy and bring inflation down to 2% FED San Francisco :  Pandemic Savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. Consumers? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent despite March quarter consumer price index (CPI) figures showing an uptick in inflation Israel-Hamas war: IDF presence reported at Rafah crossing Pandemic Savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. Consumers? - San Francisco Fed ( frbsf.org ) Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser says low-income consumers are being 'cautious' about their spending habits ( msn.com ) Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine Israel-Hamas war: IDF presence reported at Rafah crossing ( msn.com ) China's Xi and Macron urge 'political settlement' of Iran nuclear issue, state media reports ( msn.com ) and yet.... China hacked Ministry of Defence, Sky News learns | Politics News | Sky News Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 "China denied generating overcapacity and accuses the EU of protectionism. Xi Jinping reiterated that position in talks with Macron, saying there is no capacity issue viewed from the perspective of comparative advantage or global market demand." https://t.co/lRnnT3sxCa " / X ( twitter.com ) Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA RBA holds cash rate at 4.35 per cent despite higher than expected inflation numbers ( domain.com.au ) Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense? – POLITICO #XPT still works today price hasn't really moved for 2years PLATINUM Documentary: Mining, Science and History ( youtube.com ) UBS Returns to Net Profit in a Big Way ( finews.com ) Energiewende unterschätzt: Schweiz braucht 8 neue Kraftwerke | Tages-Anzeiger ( tagesanzeiger.ch ) AI could drive a natural gas boom as power companies face surging electricity demand – NBC Boston US regulator shuts down Trump Media auditor over ‘massive fraud’ – The Irish Times The agency said it was stepping in to permanently close what it called a “massive fraud” and “sham audit mill”, and it told Borgers’ clients they would need to check past financial statements in case they contained errors. The firm’s “deliberate and systemic failure” to meet professional standards affected more than 1,500 company filings, the SEC said. Trump Media fires audit firm BF Borgers after SEC bars it for 'fraud' ( qz.com ) Warren Buffett on his friendship with Charlie Munger: We never had any doubts about the other person ( youtube.com ) Warren Buffett on his friendship with Charlie Munger: We never had any doubts about the other person Britain is the best place in Europe to be an immigrant ( economist.com ) Cambridge students set up encampment calling for Israel divestment | Varsity #XPT #platinum

Berkshire's cash pile hit another record at $189bn, sells 13% of AAPL in Q1 2024 U.S NFP slightly below expectations, only the 4rth downside surprise since March 2022 >>> 2y rates off about 20-25bps from peak 2weeks ago, down to 4.8%, Janet has a lot of UST paper to sell this week, $125bn combined, with $25bn of 20y FOMC : “I don’t see the stag or flation actually,” Chair Powell riffed somewhat uncharacteristically off-the-cuff during the post-FOMC meeting press conference when asked about the risk of stagflation facing the US economy, message pretty clear, next move is not a hike, has confidence inflation moving towards 2%, slight delay but path clear towards year-end. Importantly, the FOMC’s decision was unanimous and the FOMC statement maintained an overall easing bias. FT-Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn Assessments suggest Kremlin agents preparing covert bombings, arson and attacks on infrastructure Copper : At $10K per ton, Chinese fabricators literally go into buying strike as they cannot pass these higher feedstock prices on to consumers The UST yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days >>> has only happened 3x since 1920: in 2008, 1929 and 1974 . All 3 times saw some large risk correction overall, one market perception that could change is if we head into some sort of recession or hard landing, towards the end of 2024 “I don’t think anyone at this table has any idea of how to use it [$189B in cash] effectively, and therefore we don’t use it. We only swing at pitches we like… today things aren’t attractive. We’re not using it at 5.4%, but I wouldn’t use it at 1% either. But don’t tell the Federal Reserve that. I don’t mind at all, given current conditions, building our cash position. When I look at the equity markets and the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find cash quite attractive.” Warren Buffett Gaza latest: Israeli military urges Palestinians to evacuate parts of Rafah | World News | Sky News Saudi Arabia posts budget deficit of $3.30 billion in Q1 2024, ministry says ( xm.com ) Macron sets Ukraine as top priority as China's Xi Jinping pays a state visit to France ( msn.com ) Bonds: 10-year Treasury yield falls after April jobs data ( cnbc.com ) USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: BoJ Eyes Services PMI, Wages, and Household Spending | FXEmpire Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn ( ft.com ) Copper at Risk of Pullback as Buying in China Stalls After Rally - Bloomberg Panama Elects Jose Raul Mulino as President Pledging to Shut Migrant Trail - Bloomberg Semper Vigilantes on X: "Thoughts on #Gold (and silver) from the GOAT: A 🧵 Keep Reading 👇 1/3 https://t.co/sxsgETgdBC " / X ( twitter.com ) China’s EV makers, unfazed by US, European export curbs, will push overseas vehicle shipments to new heights, analysts say | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "George Magnus: "If fiscal support is limited and monetary easing prevails, a weaker renminbi will aggravate China’s deeply embedded financial imbalances and its endemic proclivity to overproduction and exports." https://t.co/oJ1sqKZ6Tc via @ft" / X ( twitter.com ) China's gold-buying spree could be the straw that breaks the dollar's back ( telegraph.co.uk ) Warren Buffett on AI and Berkshire Hathaway selling Apple stock ( qz.com ) Technical analysis Apple could be reversing the trend | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) The Oracle of Omaha warns about AI: What Buffett said at Berkshire ( yahoo.com ) Commercial jet maker Airbus is staying humble even as Boeing flounders. There's a reason for that | AP News No 10 'shelves plan for summer general election' ( telegraph.co.uk ) USDJPY - they could push it down towards 145 - but they will need to signal hikes inJapan and/or hope for U.S inflation to come in lower

Big earnings out of the way, markets loved the #AAPL share buyback announcement ($110bn), overall SPX500 approaching 5100/5200 more of an area to lighten up overall, USDollar broadly softer, particularly USDJPY, as BoJ got involved again yesterday (IF they mean business they have to push it below 150JPY and hike rates or say they will. .., gold miners (#GLD #SILJ etc) , #CSI China, commodity related stocks all working still. FOMC didn't bring much new, wait & see, the market was expecting a pretty hawkish one, so 'priced-in', #highfrolonger not #higherforlonger #AAPL earnings ok, shares jumped as they announced $110bn sharebuyback Glencore studying an approach for Anglo American, sources say Maryland plans to rebuild collapsed Baltimore bridge in just over four years FT-Who’ll buy all the Treasuries? You’ll buy all the Treasuries 2024_04_29_Commodities_Zurich.pdf Saxo commodity outlook Please let me know, if you can't open this Market Hunts for Signs of Japan Yen Intervention in Fed Accounts ( yahoo.com ) Japan faces a tough tug-of-war with yen bears | Reuters Who’ll buy all the Treasuries? You’ll buy all the Treasuries ( ft.com ) Apple revenue falls but not as much as expected ( siliconrepublic.com ) Glencore studying an approach for Anglo American, sources say ( miningweekly.com ) BP, Big Oil Return to the Gulf Of Mexico. Remember Deepwater Horizon Spill? - Bloomberg Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Net coupon issuance is increasing, putting duration under pressure despite QT tapering. 📈Hence, we might still see 10y yields hitting 5%. US Treasury net coupon issuance in Q2 tops $500bn for 1st time in 2 years, stabilizing at $300bn+ from Q3, nearly triple pre-Covid levels https://t.co/M0RxB4y0bf " / X ( twitter.com ) How battery cell formats will change the face of the EV industry – The Armchair Trader Very good article Italy’s press freedom ranking drops amid fears of government 'censorship' ( thelocal.it ) Maryland plans to rebuild collapsed Baltimore bridge in just over four years | The Hill USDCHF - slightly higher Swiss inflation this week took momentum away ahead of big medium-term levels around 0.9250 area

Powell : ''NO stag, NO flation'', why make such statement?.. is it like "subprime is contained" and "inflation is transitory".. >>> slightly 'dovish' but only relative to expectations , things ticking along, wait & see, bringing inflation down taking longer than expected (sticky etc), watching data, "unlikely that the next policy move will be a rate hike" US job openings fall to three-year low in March, ISM was a little softer (note.. 43rd straight month of shortages in electrical components per the ISM) , ADP was 192K (expected 180K for NFP Friday) Global Central Banks purchased an ALL-TIME HIGH 289.72 tonnes of Gold during the first quarter, while ETF's had a net outflow, they all at it, data from MAS shows that its #gold  reserves rose by over 4 tonnes in March - the second consecutive month of buying (Q1 buying 7 tonnes and total reserves over 235tonnes now) BTC posted largest monthly decline since June 2022, down about 12% in April - other cryptos doing worse - classic peak on the 'halving' story GS: Our US Utilities team expects US power generation to grow 94 GW between now and 2030, 29 GW of that driven by data center demand... Autonomous taxis may have the most impact on GDP of any innovation In history US Henry Hub natgas prices fall to 29-year low in April Half of all copper mining is at drought risk with climate change US and Saudi Arabia near a security pact AstraZeneca has admitted in court for the first time that its Covid jab can cause a deadly blood clotting side effect ‘Basel III’ bank rules could pose unexpected threat to Biden’s green energy plans BoC Gov Macklem expects core inflation to continue to ease gradually-dovish Chocolate lovers rejoice . Two days after suffering its largest loss in 65 years, Cocoa posted its biggest daily decline since 1984 and is now on track for its worst weekly performance in history! Chinese tech stocks are up 30% in 3 months #contrariantradeJanuary SNB cut too early >>> Swiss inflation higher than expected, 1.4% vs 1.1 exp Analysis-Powell's soothing tone may not be enough for inflation-spooked markets ( msn.com ) Fed rate decision May 2024: Fed holds rate steady ( cnbc.com ) US and Saudi Arabia near a security pact: • US will military commit to Riyadh’s security and provide access to previously off limit weapons • Saudis will limit Chinese tech in the kingdom, build a US-led civilian nuclear program • Saudis will recognise Israel if Netanyahu stops the war, and commits a pathway to Palestinian statehood Trading USDJPY via FX option spreads | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Yen surges on suspected intervention, 160 seen as key level | Reuters Nick Timiraos on X: "The Fed marked to market its policy statement to acknowledge recent inflation setbacks, but didn't change the guidance section In June, the Treasury redemption cap will fall to $25 billion from $60 billion https://t.co/rixlOtNVD0 " / X ( twitter.com ) Janet Yellen Is Worried About Treasurys. You Should Be Too. | InvestorPlace The Department of Treasury just announced that it is launching a buyback program from May through July. On the surface, this looks like we are restarting quantitative easing. I think this is precisely because of Japan-related risks that I’ve been highlighting since August. After a miserable, failed intervention by the Bank of Japan to stabilize the yen, the next step might be the Bank of Japan selling some of its Treasury holdings.   US job openings fall to three-year low in March: JOLTS report ( yahoo.com ) Volatile data, but still...one wonders what's going on here, wait... Construction jobs collapsed, might not be too surprising where lending rates are....30y at 7.15% definitely put the breaks on a few projects... US Henry Hub natgas prices fall to 29-year low in April | BOE Report Half of all copper mining is at drought risk with climate change - MINING.COM Is Copper Heading to $15,000? | OilPrice.com Boeing Whistleblowers Keep Suddenly Dying ( newsweek.com ) 'Basel III' bank rules could pose unexpected threat to Biden's green energy plans ( cnbc.com ) AstraZeneca admits Covid-19 vaccine may cause blood clots in “very rare” cases - Pharmaceutical Technology ( pharmaceutical-technology.com ) Why hundreds of U.S. banks may be at risk of failure ( cnbc.com ) There are over 4'000 banks in the U.S. ... Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "GS: Our US Utilities team expects US power generation to grow 94 GW between now and 2030, 29 GW of that driven by data center demand... https://t.co/HFIMP6CP8s " / X ( twitter.com ) Autonomous Taxis Impact GDP More Than Any Other Innovation ( ark-invest.com ) Right OK Cathie..... Western society is being poisoned by the virus of 'victimhood' and entitlement ( telegraph.co.uk ) Where do we go from here thought is the big Q Barrick Gold beats estimates for first-quarter profit ( msn.com ) >>> profit rising 150% from Q1 2023, EPS 7 to 17cents, as price of gold remains high(er) vs price of production, these names will keep coming with beats, and analysts will keep revising higher Trump’s confused approach to foreign exchange is back - OMFIF Many saying #China is #uninvestable right now - fair enough - won't argue - but when do ou want to buy any China exposure now or wait till it rallies 20-30pct and they all change their mind ? #MSCI #China

Yellen : The US needs to take "significant steps" to reduce budget deficit >> sounds good, how ? with -2- presidential candidates promising spending galore across board.. Markets were closed in China, HKG and Singapore today and many will be closed throughout Europe due to holidays, lively calendar though and FOMC later on, with a risk of a hawkish tilt US employment cost Index for Q1 came in at 1.2% vs1.0% exp, 4.4% YoY >> The ECI rose on a sequential basis. Private sector comp growth was +1.1% in Q1 vs +0.9% in Q4, running hot, even if uneven between industries >>> somewhere in most bank research groups, 'Fed rate cut forecasts' are being revised again.. Saudi Aramco CEO says 80% of oil demand to come from Global South by 2050 China State Shipbuilding Corp. Ltd. (CSSC) has signed a nearly $6 billion deal with QatarEnergy to build 18 ultra-large liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers BoJ intervention early Monday are estimated to have been about $35bn , perhaps slightly above most expectations >>> markets testing BoJ again... FT - China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity . Policymakers on either side of bitter trade dispute seem to confuse two issues Huawei's quarterly profit surges as it takes China phone market share from Apple The regular market for US equities runs for 390 minutes on a standard trading day. But at the rate things are going, eventually the last 10 might be the only ones that matter Tesla's deal with Baidu isn't new, the mapping data Tesla will collect likely can't leave China, and Full Self Driving can't compete with the more advanced Chinese alternatives. Everyone Wants to Seize Russia’s Money. It’s a Terrible Idea/NYT Tesla conducting more layoffs, including entire Supercharger team Fed Preview: Powell Could Fire Hawkish Warning Shot Gold, S&P 500 Setups | MENAFN.COM Laspeyres on X: ""This is your captain speaking: just to let you know, I am quite concered about how this plane is being flown". *YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT 'WHERE WE'RE GOING' WITH US DEFICIT" / X ( twitter.com ) Yellen Criticizes Summers on Inflation: ‘He’s Been Wrong in the Past’ ( msn.com ) Treasury Secretary Yellen: Shelter inflation likely to fall in the next year ( fxstreet.com ) Craig Shapiro on X: "As we head into part 2 of the Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement tomorrow, I thought it may be interesting to look at the level of volatility that existed in the UST market heading into the event over the last 2 years. Below is a table of what the MOVE Index looked like https://t.co/PxCLZNnR6g " / X ( twitter.com ) Is it too late to invest in the gold rush? ( ft.com ) Never too late - it's hardly moved ! and even more potential here #GDX Many will/can use various reasons for buying #GOLD, all has been heard from fiat curencies debasement, US/Global debt that has gone through the rood last 15years (doubled globally), USD 'weaponization' eventually on some sort of UST failed auction (is a risk - whenever that maybe), West freezing Russian assets might have been a trigger for CB and others to buy physical Gold, eventual BRICS+ as an alternative to USD/SWIFT, inflation, FED eventually cutting >>> take your pick, IMHO, CB buying is/has been huge and won't go away, once there are signs of USD rates coming down, 'retail' world will join in and buy Gold, Silver and/or XPT Stocks Trade for 390 Minutes a Day. Increasingly, Only 10 Matter ( yahoo.com ) Huawei's quarterly profit surges as it takes China phone market share from Apple ( yahoo.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 Good FT article on China's intractably unbalanced economy: "China’s seeming reluctance to rebalance its economy is one of the great challenges facing global financial systems, threatening to worsen Beijing’s trade and diplomatic relations." https://t.co/LDqUHmUjZb via @ft" / X ( twitter.com ) Saudi Aramco CEO says 80% of oil demand to come from Global South by 2050 | S&P Global Commodity Insights ( spglobal.com ) China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity ( ft.com ) Chinese Shipbuilding Giant Seals $6 Billion Deal to Build LNG Carriers for Qatar - Caixin Global Money latest: Turns out Sainsbury's boss was right about self-checkouts - Britons do love them | UK News | Sky News work to do ! Elon Musk Can’t Solve Tesla’s China Crisis With His Desperate Asia Visit | WIRED Tesla conducting more layoffs, including entire Supercharger team | Electrek Opinion | Everyone Wants to Seize Russia’s Assets. The REPO Act Is a Terrible Idea. - The New York Times ( nytimes.com ) NASDAQ here - similar picture in major indices though USDCHF - trending higher still - big test 0.9250 area coming - monthly break and PAR will become the target

FOMC : The upside surprise to inflation in the US in Q1 2024 was not echoed in other developed economies.  GS notes that while 3 consecutive months of upside surprise is hard to dismiss, unusual idiosyncratic factors appear to the underlying drivers, meaning the narrative for broad disinflation remains intact >>> this is the 1st meeting Powell will have to talk/answer questions after 2-3months of higher-than-expected inflation T he Treasury Department said Monday it expects to borrow $243 billion in the second quarter, which is $41 billion higher than previously estimated One crazy stat : 30% of SPX500 trades now occur just before the close, stocks trade for 390 Minutes a day. Increasingly, only 10 matter U.S. looking to ban enriched uranium imports from Russia SNB president warns of potential inflation shocks in Switzerland...and yet he just cut rates China's April manufacturing PMI moderated to 50.4 but still points to expansion for A second consecutive month Japan’s Vice FinMin for international affairs of FX, “We are ready 24 hours, so whether it's London, New York or Wellington, it doesn't make a difference”, they have a fight on their hands China says Hamas and Fatah express political will for reconciliation Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸FOMC preview: challenging the March dot plot 🧸This week's FOMC meeting might reignite the bear- steepening of the yield curve Delays in interest rate cuts mean: ➡️Front-term yields anchored ➡️Long-term yields sensitive to growth and inflation 👇https:// t.co/u4wzymAfau " / X ( twitter.com ) GOLDMAN: “.. We expect the next few inflation reports to be softer and have therefore stuck with our forecast of cuts in July and November, but even moderate upside surprises could delay cuts further. .. We continue to think that rate hikes are quite unlikely because there are no signs of genuine reheating at the moment, and the funds rate is already quite elevated. It would probably take either a serious global supply shock or very inflationary policy shocks for rate hikes to become realistic again. And even then, the FOMC might prefer to hold the funds rate steady at a high level unless the shocks seemed likely to spark a broader and more persistent inflation problem.” Treasury raises its second-quarter borrowing estimate ( msn.com ) China's April Manufacturing PMI Moderated To 50.4 But Still Points To Expansion For A Second Consecutive Month | MENAFN.COM U.S. looking to ban enriched uranium imports from Russia ( msn.com ) SNB president warns of potential inflation shocks in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦🇮🇱 on X: "Understanding gold prices used to be straightforward: one had to have a view on the direction of US real rates to hold, buy or sell gold. Gold traded inversely to real rates for decades as fast-money ETFs in the West had to buy, hold or sell physical gold based on the changing… https://t.co/oVUII93YRd " / X ( twitter.com ) some very good points made here Supreme Court rejects Elon Musk's challenge to the SEC's 'muzzle' on his tweets ( qz.com ) Musk goes to China and shares up 15% - easy manipulation Inflation in UK shops slows amid price cuts on clothes and shoes | Retail industry | The Guardian Finally some good news Let’s Make Sure Brexit Isn’t Ignored This Election - a Politics crowdfunding project in London by European Movement UK ( crowdfunder.co.uk ) Kari Lake Speaks Out About Donald Trump 'Rift' ( newsweek.com ) Russia Deploying New AI-Powered Anti-Drone Devices ( newsweek.com ) China says Hamas and Fatah express political will for reconciliation | Reuters Paris Olympics: Goldman Sachs asks staff to 'manage spend' around event | Fortune SPX500 - particularly IF Powell is hawkish, good level to 'rehedge' 5100+

Week ahead : U.S refunding, FOMC meeting (after 2mos of higher inflatin data, Powell Q&A interesting), BoJ minutes, China PMI, plenty of CB speeches, UK local elections,and NFP Friday, together with #USDJPY action, higher USDJPY from here clearly impacts #USDCNH and res of USD/ASIA, which is probably why BoJ is stepping in in short-term, failure to raise rates though, probably means USDJPY is not staying down for 'long' #volatile >>>> KEY will/would be if BoJ asks EU central banks to get involved or not UST 10y yields have risen about 0.75% in 2024, global equities are up around 5%, credit spreads been tighter, volatility IS increasing though , #VIX #MOVE #GOLD #JPY etc and that should be a sign for many to 'lighten-up' on #highfrolonger BoJ remains in a big spot of bother, you can's have it both ways ! debt does matter, the huge pile of debt has forced/forces BoJ to keep rates low, which implies currency continues to go int he gutter, till it creates other issues elsewhere (China, rest of Asia), which may force their hands EURCHF - if JPY becomes to hard to short, market may well shift to #CHFfunding #CHFJPY lower finally? GCC, OPEC Leaders Discuss Ways to Strengthen Energy Sector Blinken is travelling to Saudi Arabia today for his 7th Mideast trip since Oct. 7 , in what may be a final chance to secure a truce in Gaza and persuade Israel to call off a Rafah attack. Joe Biden spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday about efforts to negotiate a hostage release Neste OY, a leader in renewable fuels and circular economy solutions, unveiled its first-quarter 2024 results, demonstrating resilience amidst a weak renewables market >>> upgraded by GS and UBS The working-from-home illusion fades . It is not more productive than being in an office, after all/Economist U.S. Treasury refunding set to offer relief from supply rises. Reminder though.. : Treasury bond issuance in 2024 is expected to hit $1.9 TRN, surpassing levels seen even during the 2008 financial crisis (1.4trn) Spanish opposition step up Sánchez attacks as PM decides on his future . PP leader accuses prime minister of navel-gazing, while Sánchez’s supporters rally in Madrid Chinese #Stocks  Draw Record $3 Billion Influx by Global Funds #HSI #BTC falls again, as the cryptocurrency saw 2nd consecutive week of ETF net outflows for 1st time ever apparently 30-Year Mortgage Rates at 7.64%, the highest level in 5 months U.S. Treasury refunding set to offer relief from supply rises ( msn.com ) Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Focus on Fed Decision, U.S. Jobs Data and Weak Japanese Yen - WSJ Japan's yen jumps against the dollar on suspected intervention | Reuters Yuan Devaluation Debate Surfaces as Traders Weigh Next FX Shock ( yahoo.com ) >>> all is related to/with KRW, TWD and other Asian currencies.. Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 Bloomberg says that there is a small but rising expectation of an RMB maxi-devaluation: "Supporters of a sharp currency depreciation say it would allow Beijing boost exports and give the central bank room to cut interest rates." https://t.co/wzNr4vsg5L via @markets" / X ( twitter.com ) Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index Heads for Bull Market After 20% Rise From January - Bloomberg #Jancontrarianlows Chinese Stocks Draw Record $3 Billion Influx by Global Funds - Bloomberg GCC, OPEC Leaders Discuss Ways to Strengthen Energy Sector ( aawsat.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸After the tax deadline, bank reserves at Fed drop by $200B, leaving Reserves+RRP at $3.7T With the ample reserve buffer estimated b/w $2.8T and $3.4T post-1Q GDP data, the Fed will push against cuts, but intensify discussions on QT tapering Next week's FOMC will be about QT❗️ https://t.co/wiklMNGIyn " / X ( twitter.com ) Bangkok Post - Government Pension Fund expects to shift focus to gold, oil to mitigate risk Neste Navigates Resiliently Through Challenging First Quarter in Renewables Market | EuropaWire ONE for the future world ! >>> EU countries going to enforce use of Bio Diesel amongst other things Tesla CEO Elon Musk in China to talk self-driving cars ( qz.com ) Shell and Total Energies reportedly mull stake in Middle East LNG super-project ( msn.com ) Rishi Sunak buys off Tory defence hawks with military budget boost to 2.5% ( msn.com ) Scotland's leader faces a week of high-stakes talks to keep his job after the coalition's collapse ( yahoo.com ) Ireland won’t be ‘loophole’ for other countries’ migration issues – Harris ( msn.com ) Spanish opposition step up Sánchez attacks as PM decides on his future | Spain | The Guardian The working-from-home illusion fades ( economist.com ) Migros in der Krise: Schliessung in USA still und heimlich – Inside Paradeplatz Wave of exceptionally hot weather scorches south and south-east Asia | South and central Asia | The Guardian EURCHF - if JPY becomes to hard to short, market may well shift to #CHFfunding

#GDX (ratio + chart below) #NEM #AAL BoJ unch, outright dovish , Tokyo inflation data miss >> verbal interventions likely, but they need to walk the walk if they mean or else, talk talk won't do much >>> USDJPY higher still will put more pressure on rest of Asia #USDTWD #USDKRW and eventually #USDCNH U.S data : slower GDP, higher GDP price index, higher core PCE at 3.7% (expected was 3.4%..) , not a great combo clearly! which is shown in earnings coming in as expected, but higher spending (META), cash burn high TSLA & Boeing, IBM, CAT & Harley (only no name a few) weak guidance, weak consumer confidence, higher USDollar are other usual excuses #highforlonger biting, #MSFT and GOOG safe the day yesterday, and more, SPX500 right back up, chinese stocks rallying again (jan contrarian trade..) AND #AAL #BHP and #NEM delivering! Car rental company Hertz increases the number of electric vehicles (Tesla, above all) it wants to get rid off to 30,000 cars (~10,000 more than previously disclosed) First time in 3 years that more French companies are reporting demand issues than supply issues/Thread, Caterpillar issues sales warning, misses on Q1 revenue Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says investments in artificial intelligence are increasing, but he warned investors it may take time for Meta to profit from AI U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday the outright seizure of Russian assets is justifiable but is only one possibilit y, with assets instead able to serve as collateral for borrowing in the market to help Ukraine Janet also told Reuters on Thursday that U.S. economic growth was likely stronger than suggested by weaker-than-expected data on first-quarter output and said the Biden administration was keeping all options open to respond to threats from China's excess industrial capacity Blinken says U.S. and China must avoid miscalculations as Beijing warns against 'red lines' Biden Treasury Department says we need higher taxes on capital gains because it would hurt white people more and take away their wealth Remember the fuss couple of years ago... ESG funds are imploding in the US, suffering nearly $9 billion in outflows in the first 3 months of 2024 alone – marking the worst quarterly outflows from ESG funds ever recorded >>> #ESG was a fund manager's dream, no performance needed as benchmark was not financial, but more like a measure of moral rightness and built around expensive consultants THIS is big - it will mater Advancing Equity through Tax Reform: Effects of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Proposals on Racial Wealth Inequality ( treasury.gov ) Trump and the Risk of a US Debt Default by William L. Silber - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org ) Yellen says US economy strong, all options open on China's overcapacity | Reuters U.S. Treasury yields ahead of key inflation data ( cnbc.com ) Back to 5% 10's by the summer ? Blinken says U.S. and China must avoid miscalculations as Beijing warns against 'red lines' ( msn.com ) 5 takeaways from Trump’s Supreme Court and New York hearings | The Hill Ukrainian court orders agriculture minister to be taken into custody – Europe live ( theguardian.com ) Emmanuel Macron attacks Sunak's Rwanda Bill as 'betrayal of values' as it passes into law ( msn.com ) Spanish PM considers resigning, blaming political ‘harassment’ of wife | Pedro Sánchez | The Guardian Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Bond markets sending a clear message post 1Q GDP and PCE numbers: ⚠️Inflation outweighs growth in driving bond performance Even amidst stagflation, without signs of inflation dropping sustainably to the 2% target, don't expect a bond rally❗️ 🔥10yr UST tests 4.7% aims for 5% https://t.co/vLHchh530S " / X ( twitter.com ) 69. The brutal truth about net zero and how to vanquish climate populists, with Dieter Helm - Leading | Podcast on Spotify Newmont Corp (NEM) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript Highlights: Robust Financials and Strategic ... ( yahoo.com ) China's March net gold imports via Hong Kong up 40% from Feb - MINING.COM HERTZ REPORTS FIRST QUARTER 2024 RESULTS | Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. Meta (META) Q1 2024 earnings ( cnbc.com ) Yups, spend huge to keep up, then maybe eventually it boosts returns.. Frederik Ducrozet on X: "🇫🇷 First time in 3 years that more French companies are reporting demand issues than supply issues." / X ( twitter.com ) Caterpillar issues sales warning, misses on Q1 revenue ( yahoo.com ) Anglo American rejects BHP’s £31.1bn takeover proposal; Thoma Bravo agrees deal to buy Darktrace – business live ( msn.com ) it's worth more! Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 earnings 2024 ( cnbc.com ) Google parent announces first-ever dividend; beats on sales, profit; shares soar | Reuters IBM falls as enterprise-spending constraints choke consulting demand ( msn.com ) The US is now allowed to seize Russian state assets. How would that work? ( msn.com ) Yellen says range of options to deal with frozen Russian assets ( msn.com ) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "Now is not the time to stand in the way of this long-awaited historical breakout, in my view. With gold prices at these levels, mining companies are likely to become true cash-flow machines. Newmont's earnings release today was just a glimpse of what's to come. https://t.co/WjYpEDT5Ql " / X ( twitter.com ) #GDX - long way to go potentially...

JPY crumbling as BoJ meets, will they walk the walk or just continue talking >>> results of meeting tomorrow morning very early + JPN CPI (tricky to navigate), META (which was priced to perfection..) lost about $250bn market cap after hours, Boeing & the likes of TSLA burning cash, PCE tomorrow morning as well #META #NVDA too far too fast, back to 2y trend ? chart below the buy the dip crowd will no doubt hump in in short-term, but over time.. Biden propose increasing capital gains tax rates to 44.6%, highest since 1922 Gold is not yet back to its old highs in real terms (for that to happen, gold needs to rise 40%) and gold is inexpensive against other real assets such as equities/UBS Home buying conditions (U.S) have fallen off a cliff Current levels have NEVER been seen since in the last 60+ years China has issued its third once-a-decade policy opinions for the development of its capital markets.  Goldman Sachs notes that the previous two releases of the policy document, in 2004 and 2014, ushered in periods of structural growth in Chinese equities Bloomberg: "After years of fits and starts, Venezuela is setting the stage for one of the largest and most complex debt restructurings in decades — unwinding a $154 billion web of defaulted bonds, loans and legal judgments." Russian Court Freezes JPMorgan Assets Under $440 Million Claim UBS faces new lawsuit by Appaloosa over Credit Suisse $17 bln bond wipeout Biden Capital Gains Rate Proposal: 44.6%? ( forbes.com ) The source of the 44.6% rate is a footnote from the General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2025 Revenue Proposals , and it reads in relevant part: “A separate proposal would first raise the top ordinary rate to 39.6 percent … An additional proposal would increase the net investment income tax rate by 1.2 percentage points above $400,000 … Together, the proposals would increase the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to 44.6 percent.” China’s securities watchdog revising investment-fund laws to boost accountability, confidence in line with 9 guidelines ( msn.com ) Dozens arrested in US as student protests over Gaza spread across country | US News | Sky News Barclays profits tumble 12% as UK interest rates hit mortgage demand | Barclays | The Guardian The Origins of the 2 Percent Inflation Target | Richmond Fed It took over a decade to build internal consensus. Many considerations that shifted with the changing FOMC composition as well as economic conditions Jamie Dimon is worried the US economy is headed back to the 1970s ( yahoo.com ) Japan insurers to halve bond purchases, awaiting next BOJ hike - Nikkei Asia Japan Airlines CEO Describes Weak Yen as a ‘Big Problem’ - Bloomberg Anglo American mulls £31.1bn BHP offer in mining mega-deal ( msn.com ) Louis Curran on X: "Anatomy of Capital Flight in China Over the past few days, people far smarter than me have been opining on whether China would devalue the RMB. I personally think China's Currency Ambitions ( are at the centre of every major policy decision for the last 10-15 years ) and there https://t.co/EiMCuC0hOl " / X ( twitter.com ) Well put together by LC ! it's a different view from those looking for a CNH deval - well constructed points Michael Pettis on X: "Bloomberg: "After years of fits and starts, Venezuela is setting the stage for one of the largest and most complex debt restructurings in decades — unwinding a $154 billion web of defaulted bonds, loans and legal judgments." https://t.co/MbKy19oggf " / X ( twitter.com ) UBS faces new lawsuit by Appaloosa over Credit Suisse $17 bln bond wipeout | Reuters Russian Court Freezes JPMorgan Assets Under $440 Million Claim - Bloomberg 'We aren't going anywhere' - TikTok vows court fight as new US law threatens to ban it ( msn.com ) Boeing burns through cash amid 737 Max and Dreamliner safety concerns ( qz.com ) Meta’s Metaverse is still losing Mark Zuckerberg's company billions ( qz.com ) Meta earnings results: shares tumble 17% after hours despite beating estimates; stock down on weak revenue guidance ( yahoo.com ) Finma arrives at Deutsche Bank's Prime Tower – Inside Paradeplatz Apple looks to Southeast Asia, India as hedge against China difficulties ( yahoo.com ) #META - too far too fast 400-425$ probably #NVDA - too far too fast, $600-650 probably

The U.S administration wants to implement a 30% tax on the electricity used by #crypto  miners... but wont touch data centers which is expected to consume 5x more electricity by 2026 according to the IEA (they should too..) Why the U.S. government is working on sanctions targeting some Chinese banks US PMIs: downside surprise for Apr, with manuf dropping back into contractionary territory at 49.9 (Consensus was 52.0) and services also dropping to a 5mos lows of 50.9, and services employment subcomponent fell to 47.3, the first negative reading since June 2020, meanwhile : Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth and Ifo business-climate index rose for a 3rd month to 89.4 in April from 87.9 in March, beating consensus expectations of 88.8 mainly thx to the service sector Australia Q1 inflation slowdown disappoints, rate cut bets gone for 2024, Australia is “nowhere near” beating its inflation problem US to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine ‘this week’ after Senate aid approv al The U.S. economy is unbelievable and booming says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. A week ago, he said stagflation could be coming, 6 months ago, he said this was the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades (why so much talking?) The correction in stocks isn't over, warns JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic, who still believes that the S&P 500 will finish the year at 4,200, and after being wrong over the last 18 months, Wilson has decided to no longer make bold predictions about the S&P 500, and 'the pullback in U.S. Stocks isn't over warns Goldman Sachs which notes that CTAs are modelled to sell stocks no matter what'... Crude implied vol structure coming off, suggest less geopolitical risk.. (CHF, JPY, not a surprise GOLD had a profit taking dip too-war premium) ''No other advanced economy runs budget deficits as big as the US and no other advanced economy finances its current deficit as aggressively with short-term issuance as the US (red). The US fiscal train is running completely out of control...'' Chinese Corporate Bond Yields fall to lowest level in history >>> CNH pressure coming ? TSLA : negative cash flow of -$2.5bn in Q1, at this rate....2-3years left Cathie Wood’s Popular ARK Funds Experience Rapid Decline BoJ meeting coming up ''BoJ to discuss impact of accelerating YEN weakness, decision meeting to begin on 25th-Nikkei'' .... talk talk not enough, you need to walk Balanced view as always from Ole - to the point What drives the gold and silver correction? | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Australia Q1 inflation slowdown disappoints, rate cut bets gone | Reuters Eurozone PMI signals a pickup in growth | snaps | ING Think Traders Add Bets That Fed to Skip Interest-Rate Cuts This Year - Bloomberg Robin Brooks on X: "No other advanced economy runs budget deficits as big as the US and no other advanced economy finances its current deficit as aggressively with short-term issuance as the US (red). The US fiscal train is running completely out of control... https://t.co/5NSeMbjDJn " / X ( twitter.com ) ARK Destroyed More Wealth Than Any Asset Manager Over the Previous Decade – MishTalk ARKK team has done well for their bank accounts though.. Cathie Wood on losing $14bn, Trump and where the UK has an edge over the US ( msn.com ) Cathie Wood’s Popular ARK Funds Experience Rapid Decline ( msn.com ) #highforlonger ... U.S. Is Preparing To Sanction Chinese Banks Supporting Russia, Report Says ( forbes.com ) Carl Quintanilla on X: "FT: “.. Two decades ago the US produced about 7mn barrels a day of petroleum .. Now the US produces almost 20mn .. The prolific Permian Basin .. pumps more oil than Kuwait, Iraq or the UAE, three of Opec’s powerhouses.” 🇺🇸 @FT #OOTT @KevRGordon https://t.co/AAEhMR5QDq https://t.co/DrDG2iKMZO " / X ( twitter.com ) Senate passes aid for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, TikTok bill ( cnbc.com ) As expected Biden is asking Congress to kill the American Bitcoin mining industry ( cointelegraph.com ) Ex-Trump attorney: Former president’s testimony would ‘significantly increase’ conviction chances | The Hill PBOC Steps Up Rhetoric Over Long-End Government Bond Rally - Bloomberg Gold’s Record-Setting Rally May Have Its Roots in Chinese Frenzy - Bloomberg ( archive.ph ) of course it does... which also means without china, price action struggles Lombard Odier's Big Bankruptcy with Ex-CS Stars – Inside Paradeplatz overselling kcc-360-tour ( glencore.com ) Google workers protest AI and cloud contracts with Israel ( qz.com ) Recap: Tesla stock surges despite plunging profits as Musk talks robotaxis and cheaper cars ( yahoo.com ) :-) Tesla Sales Plummet as Democrats Stop Buying the Electric Cars Due to Elon Musk ( politicalflare.com ) Apple iPhone sales in China fall almost 20% in worst quarter since 2020 ( qz.com ) >>> remember China warnings, banning APPL products, they all buying Huawei now.. and here we are 2 quarters later (APPL shares moved down on this in Q1..one of the easiest hedge-short of the Mag 7 we discussed back then) Switzerland violates right to protest: Amnesty International - SWI swissinfo.ch Russia-Ukraine war live: US to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine ‘this week’ after Senate aid approval ( theguardian.com ) #NASDAQ Platinum - #XPT - patience

Mega cap earnings coming up #TSLA, $AMZN   $META   $GOOGL   $MSFT  and $AAPL  and JPN keep talking about JPY interventions, they need to walk the walk UST 10y yields have been above SPX500 earnings yields for 3weeks, 1st time since 2002 (that's when Equity started to come under pressure-no coincidence, grwoth vs value etc) >>> This week, Janet is now selling $70bn of 2's, $70 of 5's tomorrow and $44bn of 7's on Thur - as always well flagged but price action in long-end will be interesting clearly given size EU zone service sector activity is on the rise again (June cut?), be interesting if eventually GDP follows (it should, but we won't know for few months) German Composite PMI Index moved back to >50 growth threshold in Apr for 1st time in 10mths , driven by a buoyant services sector U.S. Takes Aim at Chinese Banks Aiding Russia War Effort. Washington says Beijing’s dual-use trade has helped Moscow rebuild its war machine FTSE100 new all time high....still silly cheap UBS: “.. Investors attribute the run in mega cap stocks to animal spirits and the impact of AI; however, our work indicates that surging earnings momentum .. fueled this upside. Unfortunately, this momentum is collapsing, with Big 6 EPS growth expected to decline from 42% to 16% over the next year ..” [Golub] BofA: Repeat of 1973 or just headline risk? The second inflation wave in the 1970s was fueled by the Yom Kippur War and oil shock Money’s been flowing into HK markets from China. Mainland investors have been net buyers of HK equities nearly everyday since early February , #Jancontrarianchinalong BofA credit investor April survey: "Investor camps are now: 45% soft landing, 40% no landing and 7% hard landing (7% unsure)...Inflation remains the #1 investor worry, and rising....Central bank policy error is the #2 concern." UK (video below) Farm update plus why the National Food Strategy isn't working & higher food prices are on the way Global EV Outlook 2024 - Moving towards increased affordability Strong S&P 500 Earnings Expectations - Apollo Academy Japan and South Korea could coordinate currency intervention, but they may need U.S. support ( msn.com ) you've got to talk the walk if you mean it...raise rates and get on with it US to take aim at Chinese banks aiding Russia war effort, WSJ reports ( msn.com ) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to face pressure from right-wing coalition on future of Gaza | UK News | Sky News Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 China’s total social financing (the best official measure of debt) rose in the first quarter by 8.8% year on year, to RMB 390.3 trillion. This is the lowest rate of increase in over 20 years, which may at first seem like a good thing from... https://t.co/emrTOVzkBg " / X ( twitter.com ) Chris Giles on X: "Remarkable ebook published within 10 days of the Bernanke review with contributions from 28 macro economists by @kingsbschool Clearly no productivity crisis in UK economics..... ... not that much love for the review either... https://t.co/X8g9ACML95 https://t.co/qr9F1ot7ht " / X ( twitter.com ) Switzerland braced for wave of bank staff layoffs - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss luxury chalet market runs out of steam - SWI swissinfo.ch Migros Zurich with even more loss – bottomless pit – Inside Paradeplatz Rwanda Bill – latest: Rishi Sunak’s asylum plan becomes law after late night row between government and Lords ( msn.com ) 2years later... Shenzhou XVIII crewed spaceship ready for launch - Chinadaily.com.cn Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA Norway's biggest bank sells Tesla, Apple and Microsoft stock ( qz.com ) Tesla Announces Plan to Lay Off Over 10% of Workforce ( msn.com ) Elon Musk slashes price for Tesla’s FSD—the vaunted self-driving tech now costs as much as in 2020 | Fortune Russia sentences Meta executive Andy Stone to 6 years in prison ( qz.com ) Farm update plus why the National Food Strategy isn't working & higher food prices are on the way ( youtube.com ) >>>  listen to what he says about wheat prices and food inflation #EURJPY for europeans (and others) its the one chance in a life time to go on holiday to JAPAN