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France Composite PMI output Index at 47.3 (May: 51.2). 28-month low, expected 51.0, consumers finally getting the script ? the ECB doves will see this as a welcoming sign..>>> service sector that had been the engine of growth in the spring, is now back into contraction/decline, as higher rates add to consumer headwinds.., German manuf PMI weaker too, services held a little bit better BoE hikes 50bps (slightly more than 30 priced), and makes a few dovish comments (self defeating for inflation expectations tbh)...>>> GBP weakens a little >>> and this morning : UK consumer morale touches 17-month high despite inflation pain - GfK, and that's 'the' problem right there. Many economist calling this move 'catastrophic error of overtightening'.. (the mistake was made 1-2y ago, for being blind and doing too much QE, when inflation was clearly not going to be temporary..now everyone pays for the mistake of the CB - not just UK btw, but more accute there because of Brexit and change in labour market..) SNB hikes 25bps, as expected >>> another hike coming in Sep coming, inflation outlook was hawkish! Turkish CB (after 10 straight rate cuts..)...hikes from 8.5% to 15% (..market was expecting nearer to 20%..) >>> not enough, USDTRY goes another 5% higher to 24.50 area Powell : Fed may raise capital requirements for big banks by 20%, KRE was already struggling on higher rates, then most banks were off a little on this >> more hikes coming ''it'll be appropriate to raise rates again this year, perhaps twice'' Beijing on Friday upgraded its warning for hot weather to "red" - the highest in a colour-coded alert system - saying most parts of the Chinese capital could roast in temperatures of up to 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) U.S. President Joe Biden and Narendra Modi hailed a new era in their countries' relationship after the White House rolled out the red carpet for the Indian prime minister on Thursday, touting deals on defense and commerce aimed at countering China's global influence Japan core inflation (so excluding fresh food and energy costs) came in higher than expected at 4.3% YoY, this is a 42-year high Former member of BoE MPC, Prof Blanchflower: "Supply shocks are not fixed by interest rates. You have to ask: how come inflation is 8.7% in the UK, but tumbling everywhere else? One answer is Brexit. The other reason is that the credibility of UK policy makers is trashed." - bravo - well said Markets : Higher Terminal rates, high(er) for longer, slowly putting pressure back on stocks, commods (copper, crude down) and AUD >>> in a few months, IMHO, many CB's will 'have' to acknowledge that they had been (currently) looking too much in the rear view mirror... but timing is Very hard VIX super low similar levels seen in previous decade before a nasty reaction (timing is Very hard to tell in short-term though too) German 2s10s yield curve inverts most since 1992, markets pricing ECB Peak below 4% for the First Time since Monday USDCNH grinding higher still, 7.22 latest, the likes of EURJPY looks way way overdone on topside Fed's Powell reinforces likelihood of more rate hikes because of persistently high inflation (yahoo.com) and Powell Says Wall Street Faces Higher Capital Requirements (yahoo.com) .. force bank to buy all your UST's that will have to be issued ?... Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "No, this is not another chart of $NVDA........ It's the US federal debt. The government has already issued close to $638 billion worth of US Treasuries since the debt ceiling was extended While this tends to happen after an agreement is reached, it is important to note that… https://t.co/NL6U0tfuaZ" / Twitter Fund any kind of growth with more debt >>> hard to see how this story ends well (not too dissimilar on other countries mind..) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The $VIX closed below 13 today for the first time since January 2020. Lowest close during 2000-02 bear market (Aug 2000): 16.53 Lowest close during 2007-09 bear market (May 2008): 16.30 https://t.co/oMepJmhqlv" / Twitter Biden, Modi hail new era for US-India ties and tout deals | Reuters "We are creating a strong and futuristic partnership," Indian Prime Minister Modi said about US tech companies' decision to invest in his country Beijing steps up hot weather alert to highest level | Reuters Leitzinserhöhung der SNB - Mieten bleibt teuer – kaufen auch - News - SRF Switzerland Today - SWI swissinfo.ch Brexit was never going to make the UK better off, says former Chancellor Lord Hammond - LBC too late ! UK consumer morale touches 17-month high despite inflation pain - GfK | Reuters Banks summoned on mortgages after interest rate shock - BBC News so government is going to tell banks how to behave ?..not good Class Action Suit Targets Former Credit Suisse Executives (finews.asia) Almost inevitable.. Titanic sub search - live: 'Debris consistent with catastrophic loss of pressure chamber' as all five on board Titan 'lost' | World News | Sky News OPINION: Does rural France actually need 'saving'? - The Local The London Economic on Twitter: "“You were told that it would be pain-free. You were told that it would all be upsides, no downsides” Alastair Campbell claims the British public were “lied to” by "conmen Johnson and Farage" and calls for Boris Johnson to be held accountable ☟ #BBCQT https://t.co/fncIXTiluM" / Twitter Japan Inflation Rises Faster Than Forecast, Fueling BOJ Policy Tweak Speculation - Bloomberg Banks slammed for dragging their feet in passing on interest rate rises to loyal savers | Evening Standard Students switch to AI to learn languages - BBC News have a great friday and weekend team PVM

SNB hikes 25bps, as expected (rise in rents risk to higher inflation, underlying inflation pressure rising further etc, SNB has 'sold' forex' in recent quarters', cannot rule out further monetary policy tightening), Norges hikes 50bps, slightly more than expected, and rates may well be raised further in August, hammer down (inflation is markedly above target) Fed Chair Powell said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to reduce US growth to below its long-term trend and contain price pressures >>> they would like to pause (macro data softer, but employment data still strong), but fear it will be a mistake, so skipping with still finger on the button to hike if data is stronger Crypto-related stocks, Coinbase & the likes of MicroStrategy have been in rally mode after Bitcoin soared back to $30k, 12months high, growing optimism of a spot-BTC ETF, with BlackRock, Invesco, and Wisdom Tree filing for a spot bitcoin ETF, which could renew demand from institutional investors, all of which is exactly what the SEC wanted A once-shuttered California mine is trying to transform the rare-earth industry >>> need to compete with China's dominance in this field.. Credit Suisse's troubled past is UBS's present and A lawsuit filed in a New York court on Tuesday accused former bosses Thomas Gottstein, Tidjane Thiam and Brady Dougan, and several other executives of doing excessively risky trades to achieve high short-term returns and bonuses. How Brexit killed the expat dream. Post-Brexit travel rules are killing any hopes of la dolce vita Texas power prices jump 100% as record heat wave sends demand soaring The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is more popular with voters than ever before, soaring to 20 percent of vote in the latest Sunday poll, released every week by INSA on behalf of Bild newspaper. It has never reached this level in an INSA poll before Goldman: Hedge funds have net sold US equities in 9 of the past 10 trading sessions (99th percentile over the last five years) Markets : 1year money, UST's, corporate bonds (not all but many) and S&P earnings 'yield' 5,25%... this hasn't happened for long while, all markets competing for capital flows GOLD vs BTC, are we back at this game ? lower XAU vs higher BTC ? this at a time when BRICS+ physical demand for XAU has been on the increase BTC back above 30K - irrelevant of the actual price, imho the move from major players into spot BTC ETF's etc is exactly what was required long-term Terminal rates higher overall in few places, UK focus next, BoE should do 50bps and get on with it.. Equity markets - may well have put a top last 48hours, post OpEx etc. momentum change, higher Terminal rates, nothing dramatic, but do watch out, always worth taking some profits fi you been riding the AI / SPX7 wave Swiss central bank raises rates again, signals may need to do more | Reuters La BNS relève son taux directeur à 1,75% - Blick Norway central bank raises rate to 3.75% (rte.ie) Bank of England poised to raise rates after inflation shock | Reuters They have been late for 2years, have very little credibility, and everyone ends up paying the price for their incompetence (together with crazy populist government), they will do 25bps, but might as well do 50bps now and get on with it ON top of it all !... Interest Rates, Inflation Drive UK National Debt Above 100% of GDP - Bloomberg Doctors say HCA hospitals push patients into hospice care to improve mortality stats (nbcnews.com) what a brilliant bit of research, this is pretty terrible - to say the least! Insufficient prototype testing could put Titanic sub passengers in extreme danger, a lawsuit says (yahoo.com) always faster, quicker delivery of most things, then the thinking starts and the lawsuits follow... Revived California Mine Seeks to Transform Rare-Earth Industry (gizmodo.com) Credit Suisse's Troubled Past is UBS's Present (finews.asia) Three former Credit Suisse CEOs accused of excessive risk-taking -court filing | Reuters How Brexit killed the expat dream - The New European Willem Middelkoop on Twitter: "Huge demand for physical gold by BRICS+ A gold breakout can happen any moment now https://t.co/NLSodqQXeR" / Twitter Bitcoin Jumps on Speculation BlackRock ‘May Know Something’ (yahoo.com) Ten Norway tourist favourites that are cheaper because of the low krone - The Local Fake Meat Companies Are Failing as Money Dries Up and Demand Slows - Bloomberg indeed, was always far too expensive, and not even more healthy Texas Power Prices Jump 100% As Record Heat Wave Sends Demand Soaring (businessinsider.com) Alain Berset: "Die politische Kultur der Schweiz hat sich verändert" - SWI swissinfo.ch Far-right surge triggers alarm in Germany – POLITICO Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "Brazilian stocks are historically cheap with a total market cap that is approximately 50% of its money supply and less than 35% of its GDP. Previous instances of such low valuations have presented excellent long-term investment opportunities. To provide context: The overall… https://t.co/ikNPVPchJW" / Twitter Feeling opportunist ? Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany, which is well on its way to becoming the sick man of Europe again. While elsewhere in Europe forecasts being taken upwards, consensus expectations for Germany pointing downwards, despite the fact that Germany has just announced biggest population jump… https://t.co/5FUYdqOgMD" / Twitter have a great day Team PVM

Dragon boat festival starts in China, HK and al AAPL : Apple is trying to trademark a very simple imagine of an apple. Swiss farmers used an image of the fruit in their logo for decades, the tech company is now suing them AI-powered teddy bears could read personalized bedtime stories to kids within 5 years, the boss of a major toy producer said UK inflation stuck at 8.7% in another cost-of-living shock, core UP from 6.8 to 7.1%.. >>> inflation doesn't go down just because PM says it will, in reality core has risen nearly 1pct, 50bps hike would still mean a real 50bps cut.. Musk Says Tesla hopes to invest in India after Modi meeting BTC - lots of big new ETF issuers and different setup, this is quite probably pretty bullish and exactly what the SEC wanted to happen long-term - EDX crypto exchange goes live offering bitcoin and ether trading, backed by Schwab and Fidelity 40 million Americans will have to pay an average of $350 a month after a ~3 year pause That's a $14 billion PER MONTH burden on American consumers, on top of inflation, rising rates, and layoffs SEK hit a new record-low vs the EURO around 11.80, that's a 50% depreciation over the last 10years "Both retail and institutional investor sentiment has reached its highest levels in over 2 years and registered readings in the top quintile of the past several decades" --Morgan Stanley Markets : Equity markets slightly softer (higher terminal rates and timing post OpEx) USD mixed, GBP weaker on higher inflation data (and too slow hike, reals etc), CROSSJPY's still firm(er)m USDCNH 7.20 nearly.. Rates all about Terminal rates that have moved higher lately, 4pct in Europe, 6pct in UK and so on, most obviously related sector to '' higher for longer' rates will continue to struggle GOLD needs to head backl to $1950-75+ for the bulls to come back How did the date of Dragon Boat Festival come about - Chinadaily.com.cn The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter: "BREAKING: Citadel, Fidelity and Charles Schwab to launch new crypto exchange platform, EDX Markets. Just a week ago, the SEC sued Binance and Coinbase, two of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. The next few months are going to be really interesting for crypto investors." / Twitter EDX crypto exchange goes live offering bitcoin and ether trading, backed by Schwab and Fidelity (msn.com) Musk Says Tesla Hopes to Invest in India After Modi Meeting (yahoo.com) Electric vehicle maker Rivian says it will follow General Motors and Ford and join Tesla’s charging network next year, TSLA winning that ''charging network war!'' Biden labels China's President Xi a dictator (cnbc.com) AI Teddy Bears Could Read Bedtime Stories to Kids by 2028: Toymaker (businessinsider.com) So sad! UBS set to pay huge fines over Credit Suisse's Archegos failings (cityam.com) Water shortage: Switzerland’s blue gold is under pressure - SWI swissinfo.ch UK inflation stuck at 8.7% in another cost-of-living shock (msn.com) jeroen blokland on Twitter: "The UK just can't get an #inflation break! UK Core #CPI unexpectedly rose 0.3 percentage points to 7.1% in May and is still RISING! With recent monetary policy updates from the #FederalReserve (two more rate hikes this year) and #ECB (hiking until after summer), a scenario of… https://t.co/aERw5i5ROu" / Twitter George Osborne rejects claims austerity depleted NHS (thelondoneconomic.com) Missing Titanic Sub Once Faced Massive Lawsuit Over Depths It Could Safely Travel To | The New Republic good lord It's official: Student loan payments will restart in October (cnbc.com) Apple sues Swiss fruit farmers over apple logo | Popular Science (popsci.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB Balance Sheet is shrinking again: Total assets dropped by €4.7bn to €7,709.7bn, lowest level in 2yrs. ECB Balance Sheet now equal to 57% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 121%, and BoJ's 130%. https://t.co/BqGWV8C6VF" / Twitter Will there really be flying taxis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? - The Local Russia says it downed 3 drones outside Moscow, suspects it was attack by Ukraine | AP News Have a great day Team PVM

U.S. national debt spiked by $572 billion reaching a record $32 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 2 weeks ago UK 2y yields jump above 5% for 1st time since 2008 ahead of the BoE's interest rate decision on Thursday... Markets are pricing in another rate hike to 4.75%. The terminal rate is now just under 6% Furious San Francisco mayor fires back at GMA claim it’s ‘too dangerous to film’ in city’s downtown area, Californian dream breaking US office buildings are only about 50% as full as before Covid: Kastle Systems. Columbia & NYU professors estimate that the value of office property across US cities is 38% lower than pre-pandemic, equaling a loss of about $500 billion Blinken and Qin Gang held "candid" talks for a longer-than-expected 7hours, agreeing to maintain high-level ties. Qin accepted an invitation to Washington and called for "stable, predictable" relations. Blinken may also meet Xi Jinping — who Joe Biden said he also hopes to meet within months.Blinken says he failed to revive military-to-military talks with China German producer price deflation is gaining breadth. Over 40% out of 99 basket items with falling prices atm. Disinflation is increasingly spreading from energy and very commodity heavy intermediate goods sectors into downstream sectors.. German PPI collapsed to 1% in May, down from 4.1% in April, a good leading indicator of consumer Koreans Buying Gold Bars from Vending Machines as Global Inflation Soars. "People in their 20s & 30s appear to be the main buyers, purchasing physical" The construction of new US factories is hitting unprecedented levels The former CEO of Credit Suisse wanted to realize his dream and shake up investment banking. His plan does not seem to be working out with Exos Financial Markets : Commodities had best week in over a year / Saxo article below Equities, specifically S&P7 powered ahead last week, again, NQ had best week YTD too, watch Terminal rates across board, if they continue higher, risk should react lower/might well have seen some sort of a peak late last week on OpEx day! USdollar had a bad week, though more of a big CROSSJPY's up move in reality, never fails when yields globally and risk do well, crossjpy's do well - as Terminal rate nudged up again, risk and crossjpy's come under pressure last 24hours...AUDUSD a little softer on RBA minutes, might pause again after 2 hikes lately De-dollarisation unstoppable, BRICS cooperation fostering multi-polar currency world (iol.co.za) >>> "De-dollarisation is occurring ten times faster than the decline witnessed in the previous two decades. From 2021 to 2022, the dollar’s share in global reserves dropped eight points, from 55% to 47%, compared to 73% in 2001." Koreans Now Buying Gold Bars From Vending Machines as Global Inflation Soars - The Messenger Commodity weekly: Best month in over a year | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Bank of England risks steering UK into needless recession (cityam.com) Stock Markets: The Chinese dragon's still dozing (cnbc.com) 6 June 2023 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA A factory boom is finally happening (yahoo.com) (2) Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA on Twitter: "U.S. national debt spiked by $572 billion reaching a record $32 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 2 weeks ago. The act signed was called the “Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023” You can’t make this stuff up. https://t.co/C1rn6RcpeY" / Twitter Wall Street Sours on America’s Downtowns - WSJ Californian dream breaking : Owners of San Francisco’s Westfield shopping mall walk away citing “grow­ing num­ber of re­tail­ers and busi­nesses leav­ing area due to un­safe con­ditions for cus­tomers, re­tail­ers, and em­ploy­ees”. Half mall’s re­tail­ers closed since 2020. Nord­strom closure was last straw. San Fran­cisco has lost some 7.5% of its pop­u­la­tion— larger share than any other US ma­jor city — as residents flee crime wave and urban squalor for Bay Area exurbs and, increasingly, other states Furious San Francisco mayor fires back at GMA claim it’s ‘too dangerous to film’ in city’s downtown area (msn.com) What Does Westfield Mall Closing Mean for San Francisco? (yahoo.com) (2) Keith McCullough on Twitter: "$NVDA #MOAB The stock trades just over 30x it’s cumulative 21st century GAAP net income Every 1% move in the share price = $11 BILLION in market cap which is almost 2x their current peak in annual free cash flow excluding stock based comp https://t.co/Y3WX5RsQ2L" / Twitter Whistleblowing banker who went to prison speaks out - BBC News Why only the soldier gets hammered, management? board ? treasury, everyone knew.. (2) Oliver Rakau on Twitter: "German producer price deflation is gaining breadth. Over 40% out of 99 basket items with falling prices atm. Disinflation is increasingly spreading from energy and very commodity heavy intermediate goods sectors into downstream sectors. https://t.co/LN11Id2ljJ" / Twitter Boris Johnson latest: MPs back partygate report - as only seven vote in favour of ex-PM (telegraph.co.uk) Tim Martin says we could soon be seeing £10 pints (thelondoneconomic.com) >>> clear Brexit win!!? >>> Tim Martin famously pledged to slash the price of booze in his pubs to an “unbelievably low” price after Brexit Brady Dougan's Shattered Dream (finews.com) CS-Direktoren auf Psycho-Couch - Inside Paradeplatz Australian hydrogen fuel cell power group H2X will supply 37 trucks to Renova in Sweden to collect waste and is raising $10m in capital (afr.com) French police search Paris Olympics HQ | Olympic Games | The Guardian Titanic submarine missing: Diver on tragic expedition says remaining crew ‘positive’ they’ll find friends | The Independent Happy Tuesday Team PVM

BOJ announces no change to JGB Yield Curve Control tolerance band, as widely expected, ignoring trend of higher rates in RoW, no wonder JPY weakening, how much longer? Ueda: we have not changed policy because Japan's inflation is not sustainable The ECB might have to continue with interest-rate increases after the summer, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, ECB's Rehn: Future decisions will continue to follow a data-dependent approach $2.2 Trillion notional $SPX/ $SPY contracts are set to expire today during the quarterly expiration, this will be the largest June OpEx on record - yesterday, there was the highest daily call buying of SPX ion history.. >>> stuff like this cannot continue for much longer, (famous last words), technically we can push towards 4600 SPX JulyOpex though, final kind of push? Why hasn’t the economy responded more to higher rates? A key reason, must be (partly at least..) that monetary policy works primarily through the housing market, and the huge amount of fixed-rate mortgages done last few years....has blunted the impact of Fed rate hikes (and other CB's..) - different duration in some countries clearly.. China’s real estate investment shrank at a faster pace in May, underscoring the industry’s struggle as a market recovery loses stream >>> UBS (and others) lowered its forecast for China’s 2023 economic growth to 5.2%, from 5.7% previously U.S MM funds saw outflows of $4.66bn in week ended June 14th..ICI >>>> all jumping into equity markets again....FOMO like... this is first outflow since April tax day Boris Johnson has "built his career on basically playing against the truth and for the first time, the truth has won the game." Markets : FED : hawkish skip/pause was confirmed, as expected, dots 50bps higher, July and Sep maybe in play, 14 priced for July and 3-4bps in September ECB : delivered the fully priced 25bps, more to come, now with 22 for Aug and 15bps priced for Sep, ''not thinking about pausing'', Depo Rate to 3.50%, highest since 2001, and main Refi to 4%, highest since 2008 BoE : will do 25bps minimum, with 30bps or so priced, could move to 50bps straight away and 5.75% by year-end, CABLE over 1y highs, helpful ! BoJ does nothing again, speculation pushed back to July..it will come one day, very hard to tell when (best play a shift, via options), meanwhile with higher yields and risk, CROSSJPY's been on fire Equity markets : on fire, momentum, tech/AI driven still (300bps in reals and it will force profit taking-Hartnett), Nikkei (multi decades), AAPL, MSFT new ATH's. SPX at 75 RSI.. FXland all been about higher CROSSJPY's while BoJ stays put, risk and RoW yields up.. Hawkish ECB gets traction, especially as BoJ remains unmoved. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB wants to reduce its balance sheet more quickly. Will discontinue APP asset reinvestments in July. https://t.co/DECrIN94bt" / Twitter Bank of England to hoist interest rates to 5.75 per cent (cityam.com) China’s Property Investment Slides Further as Housing Recovery Staggers - Caixin Global Wall St bank job cuts set to surpass 11,000 as CEOs unwind hiring binge | Financial Times (ft.com) GS goes bearish....? 1. "We see a much higher-than-average chance of a 5% SPX down-move over the next month. 2. Continued weak ISM new orders suggest a weak outlook among US manufacturing managers. Also, the decline in FCF yield of S&P 500 companies shows that they are in a weaker position to weather a slow economy in the context of higher interest rates. These variables have statistically proven to be significant indicators of elevated downside asymmetry for equities. 3. While our estimate of the probability of downside asymmetry over the next month is in its 99th percentile vs the past 27 years, put prices are only in their 20th percentile. Result: The gap between our expected probability of downside and put prices is in its 100th percentile vs the past 27 years". (GS derivs) UBS Plays Good Cop, Bad Cop (finews.asia) and charts PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Double Down News on Twitter: "Pete Oborne Demolishes Boris Johnson’s Legacy @obornetweets https://t.co/kZuOMqArxV" / Twitter don't worry he'll be more than fine... Boris Johnson starts new job as Daily Mail columnist day after report found he lied to Parliament (inews.co.uk) BBC Newsnight on Twitter: ""I'm standing up for what I think is right" WATCH: @vicderbyshire questions Conservative MP Brendan Clarke-Smith on his continued support for Boris Johnson following today's damning report. https://t.co/AlYRBTxHmh https://t.co/onBLt2BeKW" / Twitter mindboggling stuff - great interview though Scrapping inheritance tax won’t help the Tories win over young voters - CityAM Zimbabweans hit by rising prices as local currency plummets | Reuters Stuff of nightmares Foxtons chief tells sellers to ‘get a little bit more competitive with pricing’ - Property Industry Eye Huge landslide narrowly misses Swiss mountain village - SWI swissinfo.ch whaoo, what a terrible situation, village been emptied while though, but imagine having lived there all your life.. Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: ""What is the defense minister's daughter doing these days?" - Prigozhin is picking on Shoigu again. The split in Russian "elites" continues to deepen. https://t.co/hhSfBnkq9K" / Twitter always hard to tell what is really going over there, but there you go Tymofiy Mylovanov on Twitter: "Reuters reports on the state of the counteroffensive in Ukraine. The main takeaways: Ukrainian gains most rapid since last November Kyiv yet to reach main Russian defences Bulk of Ukrainian forces still waiting in wings 0/ https://t.co/aSB1VMNEJ4" / Twitter Odey's hedge fund set to be broken up (cityam.com) Wall Street banker accidentally sent sex tape to colleague (telegraph.co.uk) have a wonderful Friday and sunny weekend team PVM

FED would love a few months to 'ponder'... Powell : ''A rate cut this year won’t be appropriate, inflation hasn’t moved down, hasn’t reacted to existing rate hikes, so we’re going to have to keep at it.”, added "talking about a couple of years out’ for rate cuts, suib par growth for a while may be necessary to bring down inflation'' >>Markets disagree, price first cut for Jan 2024 at the moment (remember the 80bps of cuts priced in 2023...gone) >> so as expected, #hawkishskip, higher , the significant increase of the median dot for 2024 likely has the biggest impact (even though pencilling in -2- additional rate hikes for 2023 is also pretty impressive). It means that the odds of a large decline in the #FED Target Rate next year are (way) down >>>BUT towards the end, on the soft side of things, Powell said 'The conditions we need to see in place to get inflation down are coming into place, including lower growth and labor slack, we get closer & closer to the destination.”...assessing additional information and its implications U.S May PPI : +1.1% vs. +1.5% est. & +2.3% prior; core PPI +2.8% vs. +2.9% est. & +3.2% prior - freefalling! but for Powell it's all about core inflation and employment Bank of Canada's Beaudry : higher for longer (full speech below) Pence says he can’t defend alleged Trump crimes in classified documents indictment Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan blusters that "terrorists were holding demos on the streets of Sweden" as he blocks the Scandinavian nation from joining NATO China trims key lending rate as new data shows flagging recovery. Property investment down 7.2% in first five months, youth joblessness rises, same old action, not having much impact anymore..rate curts giving 'hopes', but economy still losing momentum, does NOT bode well for next few quarters US Companies Scramble to Cuts Costs, Pay Down Debt as Interest Rates Surge (as you would expect) - BBG article S&P 500 will finish the year at 3900 warns Morgan Stanley's CIO Mike Wilson. Wilson says that inflation cooling will be bad for stocks as that is where most of the recent earnings strength has come from >> he is persistent in his view! long way to go to 31.Dec BIDEN: "I signed an executive order to make 'environmental justice' the responsibility of every single federal department"...ok what does this mean exactly ?.. UK : Nicholas Watt, "I was told it takes two hours to read the contents of the report. It is damning. And it is damning on page after page." Markets : FX land : USD mixed, more about CROSSJPY's higher on higher yields (higher for longer) and risk, ECB will do 25bps today, SNB 25bps next week and BoE 25bps (small risk of 50bps), BoJ will be 'concerned' about renewed JPY weakness (PPI etc..) Bonds all about the curve, dec 2023/dec 2024 etc, rate cuts pushed further out, higher for longer etc. No more cuts priced for 2023 (was 80bps 2months ago..), first cut priced in Jan 2024 ish, which is not what FED is saying still.. Equity markets not too bothered, until we actually see unemployment higher, thus hit some sort of recession >>> sentiment/RSI etc : Extreme greed trading at levels last seen at February highs...but of course, back then we had no AI Crude stays low, good for consumers WOAH... Reporter: What do you think about the projections of $51T in debt by 2040? Powell: That's not our problem. My job is to remain independent. I know we're on an unsustainable fiscal path but that is Treasury's responsibility. Reporter: would you finance that huge debt issuance? Powell: No, under no circumstances.. China's youth unemployment hits a fresh record high in May, major data disappoint (msn.com) >>> The unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24 rose to 20.8% in May, a record and above the high set in April. The jobless rate for people of all ages in cities was 5.2% in May. BofA: Fund Manager Confidence in China Shrinks (finews.asia) >>> all gone to NIKKEI ! Patrick Zweifel on Twitter: "1/ Chinese activity data for May confirm April’s loss of momentum, driven by construction activity The supply of residential space fell further to its lowest level since Nov 2008, while rising residential demand, barely visible on the chart, remains at its cyclical low https://t.co/LgLrKBTdfh" / Twitter Do you remember the Family Guy joking with the Nike commercial with "Do not only have one family. Have a second family all across the country...."? GS derivs goes full Family Guy on buying laggards by not just buying laggards but buying calls on laggards.... "we see a potential rally in stocks where GS analysts are Buy rated and option prices are attractive but investors are not yet bullishly positioned. We provide an estimate of implied returns for call buyers if these stocks were to rally and hit their current 12-month price targets in the medium-term. We highlight 10 stocks in the note with high implied call-buying returns" (GS) Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "An Interesting speech from Paul Beaudry, the deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, on a higher-for-longer rate outlook He highlights why the real neutral rate may have arrested its steady decline and why there's "a meaningful risk that it could go up." https://t.co/g3H95ZNz4H https://t.co/deWsoiH2gA" / Twitter US Companies Scramble to Cuts Costs, Pay Down Debt as Interest Rates Surge - Bloomberg Why Sunak's crypto investment quote has the tech industry excited (cityam.com) Johnson’s aide nominated for peerage appears to have exaggerated time spent at Number 10 - Tortoise (tortoisemedia.com) >>> something fishy going on here ! Forget Boris Johnson, it’s the ‘Tory mortgage penalty’ that is Rishi Sunak’s biggest enemy (inews.co.uk) >>>> Bojo (and the likes of Trump) actually wants to break the system, guys like them only thrive in a broken system. So they keep pushing the system to its breaking point — where rules are for idiots and morons, norms are for foolish folks and basic truths are malleable.” Starbucks says it fired her for an 'absence of leadership.' She says it was because of her race. A jury returned a $25.6 million verdict in her favor | CNN Business what a world ! Mike Pence won't defend Trump classified documents indictment (cnbc.com) Logitech: The CEO's Departure Adds To An Already Complicated Normalization Story (msn.com) Nadine Dorries refuses to resign officially until No 10 explains her lack of peerage | Nadine Dorries | The Guardian quel joke this all is, in fact it's scandallous Thailand weighs accepting Chinese engine in submarine deal - Nikkei Asia Totally insane stuff - watch Daily Loud on Twitter: "BREAKING: The Rubik’s cube world record has been broken at 3.13 seconds 🎉🤯 https://t.co/nRsvWTuAIm" / Twitter Cost-of-living squeeze puts Swiss households at poverty risk - SWI swissinfo.ch Electricity imports surpass nuclear power in the UK - Energy Live News madness

U.S CPI has moved down from 9.1% last June to 4% in May 2023 - not bad! >>> June pause (most likely) confirmed >>> the question now is how explicitly or forcefully the Fed will commit to a July hike, ''hawkish skip being priced for 3weeks'' is most likely scenario tonight, been priced for 3weeks (anything else is a surprise) >>> over 80 bps of cuts in 2023 was priced just over a month ago, now virtually nothing (still 150bps or so of cuts priced in for 2024) Shipping tax could yield $100 bln climate windfall 10% Of $4.2 Trillion US COVID Relief Was Lost To Fraud, Waste: Report >>> this IS STAGGERING, and it's only for the U.S, we know it happened everywhere!! BARCLAYS: “.. there have only been two comparable instances of such narrow [stock] leadership over the last three decades .. the leaders collapsed in 2000 .. whereas in 2020 the leaders delivered on earnings .. we think the current episode will likely resemble 2020 ..” >> everyone saying the same thing >>> SPX500 is now above every single WallStreet estimate (pretty much)...BANKS are ALL rushing to raise their targets on SPX, GS just raised target to 4500 from 4000 Singapore Deputy Prime Minister: “Countries in ASEAN and around the world do not wish to choose sides. It's every country’s interest, especially the U.S. and China, to develop a new architecture that enables inclusive and sustainable development.” Greenpeace activists on Wednesday scaled Deutsche Bank's headquarters in Frankfurt and strung a large yellow banner across part of the facade to protest the investment policies of the German lender and its asset management company DWS China to cut gasoline, diesel retail prices May ranked as the largest month of buying of US equities since 2010 Strong words. Chinese FM Qin Gang just had a call with Blinken and asked him to respect China's core concerns - especially on Taiwan - and to "stop damaging China's sovereignty, security and development interests in the name of competition" >>> China's government bond yield falling rapidly, 10-year bond yield now below 2.6%, soon to export deflation to RoW ..? Brexit : What many forget is that the EU offered the UK an unconditional 12 month extension to the transition period so we could cope with covid without the distraction of Brexit. Brexit was the Tories priority, so the offer was turned down. Much of the mess can be put down to this Markets : We fully expect some sort of hawkish skip (is what market being expecting for 3weeks), anything else will be a surprise for markets. Core inflation remains sticky at 5.2% yoy (coming down int he right direction...but..), thus higher for longer, ie the FED wanted to correct and have managed to take out all the cuts that were price din for 2023, right now almost down to very little priced in from -80bps 2months ago (still 150bps priced in for 2024 though) Equity markets been in FOMO mood (May saw largest inflows since 2010) etc >>> We're in one of those weird moments in time when the S&P 500 has already topped the year-end target of strategists. What now?... they will all push year-end targets higher.... USDollar is a mix, USDCNH more influenced by China's problems (2.6% 10y yields..), USDJPY loves a BoJ on hold still (Friday decision), GBP could well 'have' to rally on possible 50bps next week and EURO 1.0650-1.1050 range for now, MXN continues to be favorite EMG Bonds, all about the curve, all ears on Powell presser May ranked as the largest month of buying of US equities since 2010. US L/S net leverage rose to 12 month highs as a result of the buying. Mega-Cap TMT drove the bulk of the buying in North America pushing net exposure to these names to decade highs. Traditional defensive continued to be bought with May being the 4th largest month of buying since 2018 China to cut gasoline, diesel retail prices-Xinhua (news.cn) Qin Gang calls for US to ‘show respect’, stop undermining China’s interests | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Africa mulls alternatives to US dollar - Chinadaily.com.cn Best for Britain on Twitter: "🔥Counsel for Covid Inquiry: "The Pandemic hit the UK just as it was leaving the EU [which] required an enormous amount of planning, patricularly a no-deal exit. It is clear that [this] crowded out and prevented some, or perhaps a majority, of improvements to preparedness." ~AA https://t.co/ErUHruk48e" / Twitter This is an absolute hand grenade thrown at the Brexiter fundamentalists. So many reasonable people, even Leave voters, urged the gov’t to just take even a six-month, to not pile one crisis on top of another. But Brexit mattered to them more than people’s health, all going to come out now fwiw - clearly all out of their depth, with covid crisis on top, disastrous mismanagement etc etc - so many things they never saw coming, oh yes because well you know Bojo was a remainer! so he didn't have a f... clue about any of it, other than his own populist garbage, populist ideology over your own country-people-economy.... utter madness it was, always was Edwin Hayward on Twitter: "Nadine Dorries, a tragedy in 4 acts. The lights dim as our play begins... 1) Calls out cronyism in how jobs in the Lords are given out. https://t.co/XEbyUf0R86" / Twitter Fabulous, another one that was a remainer btw Odey threatened to sue financial watchdog over misconduct probe | Financial Times (ft.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB Balance Sheet almost unch ahead of this week's meeting. Total assets now at €7,714.4bn, equal to 57% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 121%, BoJ's 130%. https://t.co/Dw2O619Ji6" / Twitter What Trump’s Indictment Means for 2024 - Democracy Docket Trump Is Arraigned and Pleads Not Guilty in Documents Case - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% last June to 4.0% in May. What's driving that decline? Lower rates of inflation in Fuel Oil, Gasoline, Gas Utilities, Used Cars, Medical Care, Apparel, New Cars, Food at Home, & Electricity. Rates of inflation in Transportation, Food… https://t.co/FhEYu3HE3X" / Twitter Singapore urges feuding China, U.S. to stave off conflict (cnbc.com) UK Parliament Group Calls for Crypto Tsar, Faster Legislation (coindesk.com) Shipping tax could yield $100 bln climate windfall | Reuters Sturgeon was easy to admire from afar – but Scottish friends knew better (telegraph.co.uk) never saw that one coming 🙂 ... that being the best at communicating in front of TVees doesn't necessarily make you good at running a government... cough!... everyone thought she was "progressive".... but what is least progressive thing you can do for your voters or country ?.... Run it badly China Property Developer Luring Home Buyers With Gold Bars (businessinsider.com) Greenpeace climbs Deutsche Bank HQ to protest climate investment policies - SWI swissinfo.ch The Biden administration made $66 million in its oil trade (qz.com) >>> The Biden administration made $66 million in its first oil trade. The US sold 3 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for $95 and repurchased them at $73 Indiana's getting a $3 billion GM-Samsung EV battery cell plant (detroitnews.com) have a great FOMC day Team PVM

VIX and SPX up yesterday (vols got dragged far too low - but interesting nonetheless) China’s central bank cut its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points from 2% to 1.9%, first reduction in nearly 1year >>> USDCNH 7.16 BoE's Catherine Mann remains "very concerned" about persistent UK inflation pressures, she drew particular attention to high wages for new hires, "sticky" core CPI, and uncomfortable price gains in the services industry Luxury goods: Europe’s joke on the world-The old continent profits from the cultural insecurities of other regions/FT article UK two-year yield rises to its highest since 2008 on jobs data (surpassing the Trussonomics levels) as UK private sector wage growth accelerates to 7.6% >>> could argue 50bps next week! US regulators move to block Microsoft's Activision takeover Trump's "peril is extreme": Former federal prosecutor on the historic Mar-a-Lago indictment and Privileges Committee finds Boris Johnson deliberately misled Parliament – report To put things into perspective: 10 stocks have contributed 90% of S&P 500's 13.0% gain this year, the most concentrated mkt ever, Bernstein says - EVERCORE: “A mountain of money” in money market accounts is “fuel for an equity momentum market move” — and could “accelerate the arrival of our year end S&P 500 Price Target of 4,450 to as early as July 4 ..” "Total debt as a share of GDP hit 295% in China last September, surpassing 257% in the U.S. and an average of 258% in the eurozone." The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $2.1 trillion, highest since Feb 2021. This is occurring when the economy is still in an economic expansion w/ Unemployment @ 3.7%. What happens to the deficit when recession hits? Markets : FANG's up 70% YTD, must be a lot of chasing, FOMO style buying going on lately..NIKKEI back to 1990 highs, that's going back some! USDollar slightly softer ahead of all the CB events, with CROSSJPY's higher overall on higher risk and yields, imho we go 25bps for FOMC; ECB and SNB, BoJ should also move, and BoE next week could very well go 50bps, all of which is fairly well priced so language will be key, as usual, path forward is key Brent hit 2023 lows, WTU $67 good for consumers! Biggest standout in fund manager positioning is the overweight to bonds and underweight to equities... see Thread below The year so far in the noisy medias.. (no names!) : January: soft landing! February: no landing! March: hard landing! April: credit crunch surely? May: it’s just mega cap tech June: it’s a bull market!!!! Will the Fed’s third mandate be in play tomorrow? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Barchart on Twitter: "JP Morgan's prediction for how the S&P 500 will react to this week's CPI reading. Warning: JP Morgan tends to get these almost always wrong https://t.co/zNp7TBnfYr" / Twitter - irrelevant whether you or I agree with it or not.. many in markets, algos will follow this path... Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Biggest standout in fund manager positioning is the overweight to bonds and underweight to equities... This type of positioning is only going to work in 2 scenarios: 1. Bonds rally, stocks fall 2. Bonds rally, stocks rally, but bonds do more https://t.co/ekJzd4YGVq" / Twitter Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $2.1 trillion, highest since Feb 2021. This is occurring when the economy is still in an economic expansion w/ Unemployment @ 3.7%. What happens to the deficit when recession hits? https://t.co/eJFnnIJb97" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "To put things into perspective: 10 stocks have contributed 90% of S&P 500's 13.0% gain this year, the most concentrated mkt ever, Bernstein says. The stocks are AAPL (up 39%), MSFT (+36%), NVDA (+164%), GOOG (+38%), AMZN (+48%), META (+120%), TSLA (+91%), AVGO (+45%), AMD (+87%)… https://t.co/oFK0AIZEVY" / Twitter Fueled by Long Credit Binge, China’s Economy Faces Drag From Debt Purge - WSJ Luxury goods: Europe’s joke on the world | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> full on masterpiece of a column US moves to block Microsoft's Activision takeover - BBC News China cuts key policy rate as post-Covid recovery fizzles; yuan hits 6-month low (cnbc.com) Has China’s power peaked? - GZERO Media china faces the worst demographic trajectory of any country we’ve ever seen in peacetime >>> population now about 1.4b , and so it seems...est population in 2100 : 475-700m (!) Trump indictment 'shocking' and portrays him as a 'great threat' to US national defence (msn.com) Trump's "peril is extreme": Former federal prosecutor on the historic Mar-a-Lago indictment | Salon.com Privileges Committee finds Boris Johnson deliberately misled Parliament – report (thelondoneconomic.com) Thanks BoJo and Co.. Brexit cited as a major concern as US business confidence in Britain drops (cityam.com) Ken Griffin bullish on shift in Japan Inc. as Citadel returns to Tokyo - Nikkei Asia Swiss inflation rate falls to lowest level since start of Ukraine war - SWI swissinfo.ch >>> CREDIT SUISSE: “Our work indicates that YoY inflation is likely to fall to 4.2% in May, 3.2% in June .. this would represent one of the greatest drops experienced in a 2-month period over the past 70 years.” SWISS braced for strike action disruption to flights - SWI swissinfo.ch Factbox: Toyota unveils battery, production innovations for new EVs | Reuters To move on, consign Boris Johnson and his vanity to spam (thetimes.co.uk) Elements on Twitter: "Lithium has become essential in recent years, primarily due to the boom in electric vehicles and other clean technologies that rely on lithium batteries 🔋 We've visualized the world’s largest lithium producing countries: https://t.co/OlDGSEtqnx https://t.co/QIYldsKAFx" / Twitter

UBS says it has completed the takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse Weak ahead, U.S CPI ahead of FOMC on Wednesday, ECB, SNB all likely to hike 25bps, though the 'language' from Powell will be key as usual, BoJ could surprise on Friday, BoE is next week, they will need to hike too China has had a spy base in Cuba for years, which it last expanded in 2019, a US official familiar said, after the White House downplayed an earlier WSJ report on the facility OpenAI CEO says 'optimistic' on global AI coordination Portugal just launched a ‘government-funded’ 4-day workweek trial Trump’s hoarding of official secrets is both breathtakingly careless and utterly calculate Boris Johnson’s Rise and Fall, the disgraced former Prime Minister’s long career at the top of British politics should be a matter of national shame 'Companies are sitting on ~$200 billion of excess inventory" - MS, one of the reasons Mike WIlson remains bearish Another milestone. In May, wind and solar produced more electricity in the EU than fossil fuels – for the first time. 'Europe’s electricity transition has hit hyperdrive. Clean power keeps smashing record after record.' Markets : SPX500 is now '20% off lows, and thus in a bull market', they all saying now, few other parts have caught up last 2weeks, Russell no long lagging etc, NQ near highs, DAX 16K+ all priced to near perfection? breath improved last 2weeks, but there is always a but.. USDollar mixed, markets wants to see-talk-think of a pause after this 'final' hike, whether it comes now or in July, thus some USD weakness ahead quite possible.. Crude sub $70 again Rates are in a higher plateau for longer, still remains our overall view, a pause does not equal a cut in the very near future Can FOMC and BoJ pop the rapidly inflating bubble? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) T. Rowe Sees BOJ Policy 'San Andreas Fault' of Global Finance Is at Hand | Financial Post China’s Inflation Problem? It Has None - WSJ In China, as this article notes, low inflation mainly indicates Beijing's great difficulty in boosting domestic demand. It isn't really a good thing. Wind and solar overtake fossil generation in the EU | Ember (ember-climate.org) The Ultimate Deal | Fintan O’Toole | The New York Review of Books (nybooks.com) Trump’s hoarding of official secrets is both breathtakingly careless and utterly calculated Trump indictment is 'very, very damning,' his former attorney general says (cnbc.com) Boris Johnson scuttles away from his flagrant crimes, like a whingeing guilty schoolboy | Andrew Rawnsley | The Guardian PPE Firm Subject to £122m Recovery Action from UK Government Has Only £4m in Assets – Byline Times Arnaud Bertrand on Twitter: "Very good - and frightening - opinion piece on US-China by Lanxin Xiang, a professor of International Relations at IHEID in Geneva, Switzerland. He argues that the US's current trajectory wrt China leads us to war. He thinks that China "has pretty much given up on the Biden… https://t.co/26laa232LI" / Twitter UBS says it has completed the takeover of Credit Suisse (cnbc.com) US Banks to Pull the Plug on Binance (finews.asia) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good morning from Germany where the deindustrialization continues. High energy prices & rigid rules are hurting Germany's industry. Companies have begun to relocate their production or build new plants abroad. Industry now accounts for only 23.5% of German GDP, compared w/>30%… https://t.co/GuZRJipOh2" / Twitter Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S. - WSJ OpenAI CEO says 'optimistic' on global AI coordination | Reuters Portugal just launched a 'government-funded' 4-day workweek trial (cnbc.com) Manchester City, Premier League champions*? - The Athletic Manchester City’s players & coaching team deserve huge credit for extraordinary success. So too do their recruitment team. But if now is not the time to question the how behind it, then when is? A piece on how we are all supposed to make sense of this. Palantir's Alex Karp: Tech leaders calling for AI pause have no product (cnbc.com) ‘Black Swan’ author slams crypto, calls Bitcoin a cult | Fortune

U.S claims : The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in early June jumped to a nearly two-year high of 261,000, but most of the increase took place in just two states: Ohio and California >>> and July back to 75% chance of no hike / skipping, USDolllar duly followed lower, risk mixed to slightly higher, rotating etc etc China : Producer price index in May fell 4.6%, marking the steepest year-on-year drop in seven years, when producer prices saw a year-on-year drop of 7.2% in May 2016 ChatGPT got its first libel lawsuit. Legal experts say it won't be the last lawsuit prompted by AI hallucinations!.. and it will all hinge on whether AI companies are protected by Section230 Google has officially changed its mind about remote work UK PM Rishi Sunak and US president Joe Biden made some transatlantic promises, though details are scanty, not a trade deal.. Donald Trump has been indicted over his handling of classified documents after he left the White House Learning to live with Russia. Western support remains key in securing Ukraine’s future. But in a non-polar world, Europe must accept that Russia’s fate is beyond its control BoJ is said to still see the need to continue monetary stimulus -Yen dips further after BoJ is said to likely stick with yield curve control in June President Tayyip Erdogan named Hafize Gaye Erkan as new governor of the central bank. Announcement completes a makeover of Erdogan’s econ team following Mehmet Simsek’s appointment as FinMin — appointments that may signal a return to more conventional policies Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S. Beijing agrees to pay Havana several billion dollars for eavesdropping facility....wait what ?? China, Cuba,, headline reminiscent of the early 1960's..!! US data giant Palantir has said Britain is a better place to develop artificial intelligence (AI) than the EU thanks to more “pragmatic” privacy laws Ray Dalio, founder of the worlds biggest hedge fund, says the U.S is going to issue a large amount of government debt and there is a shortage of buyers. He calls this the beginning of “big cycle debt crisis” -Apple cuts Vision Pro sales target to 150K units vs previously discussed 1M units Markets: U.S claims higher, 2sUST 10bps lower, USDollar weakens, and NQ takes over again, rotation of the previous rotation, with markets pulling each other up ! USDollar fails at 0.9100CHF, 140JPY and below 1.2400GBP, EURO 1.0650 area solid support now, AUDUSD also shouldn0't go below .6600 area with RBA back hiking, ,similarly CAD, JPY weakens again this morning as BoJ said to 'likely stick with YCC in June' SPX500 grinding higher, huge roation around July Fed and short-term rates perception, markets rotating from one sector to the next, taking things up overall, all in a very low vol environment (AND a lower FED balance-sheet too, now down to 8.4TRN) '''The fear index Vix has dropped to 3y low as S&P 500 has entered bull market. Up >20% since an October low''' not exactly time to go all in now though U.S. jobless claims leap to nearly two-year high of 261,000 (msn.com) Claims are slowly bur surely on the UP China economy: Inflation cools in May, CPI and PPI shows (cnbc.com) "Producer price falls are steepening, as a result of excess capacity" BOJ's Ueda flags shift in corporate pricing, upward inflation bias | Reuters Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden sign ‘Atlantic declaration’ but hope of trade deal ends | Foreign policy | The Guardian Pantheon Macro on Twitter: ""The EZ Economy Fell into a Technical Recession in Q4 and Q1" @ClausVistesen https://t.co/XyIARbJPlI #PantheonMacro https://t.co/yJhc91DOWt" / Twitter Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the US is at the start of a debt crisis - and worse times are ahead for the economy (yahoo.com) Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S. - WSJ been denied by China... but still.. Gustav Helgesson on Twitter: "Household consumption was revised up sharply from terrible to decent in today's report. All of a sudden, the household picture is much more rosy. Keep in mind that monthly data is much more volatile and uncertain this time around... Difficult to interpret! https://t.co/vKf1mX9E1p" / Twitter Technical analysis on gold: can it break above $2000 and when? (thearmchairtrader.com) Good in-depth write up Why do AI tools like ChatGPT hallucinate? (qz.com) U.S. Congress to consider two new bills on artificial intelligence | Reuters Google has officially changed its mind about remote work (qz.com) Kampf der Züri-Titanen: Blocher schiesst auf Kielholz - Inside Paradeplatz Donald Trump: Former President charged over mishandling classified documents (msn.com) Trump indictment news today: Trump faces up to 100 years in jail as he declares ‘I am an innocent man’ | The Independent 100 sounds a lot..!! "If you intentionally move classified information or obstruct justice in an investigation, you will go to jail, but we will see what happens." Former Chief White House ethics lawyer, Richard Painter responds to Trump's indictment ‘An ungodly, dystopian landscape’: New York’s skies underscore climate stakes | The Hill Learning to live with Russia (prospectmagazine.co.uk) Dorries, Sharma, and Johnson’s father Stanley ‘dropped from former PM’s honours list’ | The Independent Jeremy Hunt poised to ease windfall tax in boost for North Sea (telegraph.co.uk) Such a classic - rubbish policy, as they simply look back and change their mind, look at retrospective data etc etc, thus means their policy was wrong , end Boost for Sunak as tech chief hails Britain’s AI potential (telegraph.co.uk) have a super Friday and weekend team PVM

U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday directed his administration to deploy “all available federal firefighting assets” that can quickly respond to the wildfires raging across Canada, Hundreds of wildfires burn in country, with 238 ‘out of control’ as of Tuesday afternoon, blanketing cities in smoke, what a terrible situation Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks. Turkey is heading for a classic currency crisis. All of its reserves and then some are borrowed, USDTRY is now 23+, down 25% YTD, market showing no confidence for Erdogan's ''policies'' Saudi Arabia’s takeover of the PGA tour is just one step of its sportswashing plan UK to host first global summit on AI safety, Rishi Sunak announces Druckenmiller : “I would actually argue since it’s taken so long and the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate… that it increases the probability of a hard landing.” - full article/interview below With the recent leg up, 2s UST nearing 4.60% -- some 80 basis points above the low levels of March, April, and early May but short of the 5.07% that prevailed just before the banking tremors. This is ahead of -2- significant events next week: the May CPI inflation data and, of course, the FED policy meeting Barnier, the man who negotiated the terms of Brexit from the EU side, saying here clearly that the UK can rejoin the EU anytime ''the door is always open'' Markets : Crude, commods holding up/slightly firmer, reaction to China trying to kick start a few things locally (commods oversold - worth having a look again) USD directionless, but much more down to what policies RoW are following, MXN vs TRY the biggest divergence and its reacting still Bonds grinding lower, as RBA, BoC giving signs or hint perhaps other CB's will have to have another push higher over next few months (certainly no cuts!..), question the skipping ! Fed July hike almost fully priced in again.. Equity markets got a little nudge lower on BoC, a reminder to those calling for cuts...that rates will be most likely, high(er) for longer The VIX ended the day at 13.94, its lowest close since February 2020 >>> that's when you should reduce risk and start to buy some hedges Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter: "With the recent leg up, the yield on 2-year US government #bonds is nearing 4.60% -- some 80 basis points above the low levels of March, April, and early May but short of the 5.07% that prevailed just before the banking tremors. This comes ahead of two significant events next… https://t.co/PQQnEwKnsM" / Twitter Air quality – live: New York pollution to remain hazardous as no end in sight for Canada wildfire smoke (msn.com) horrendous situation out there Raging wildfires in Quebec drive intense smoke and hazy skies farther across the eastern US and Canada (msn.com) the pictures are just from another Mad Max world... Newsweek on Twitter: "New York City skies turned orange and hazy Wednesday as dense wildfire smoke continued to cover the area. https://t.co/P6kr5Cn7uw" / Twitter Alf on Twitter: "Bank of Canada hiking again. I feel the urge to share this chart: Canada today has more private sector debt than Japan at the peak of the 1990s real estate bubble. Not sure how this ends well for the Canadian real estate market and economy. https://t.co/QXezSAzB12" / Twitter well worth a read.. Jesse Felder on Twitter: "'Commodities appear deeply oversold relative to the S&P 500.' https://t.co/bwa6Nmaj5l via @SoberLook https://t.co/Vk7PhtHJse" / Twitter Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org) Stanley Druckenmiller Offers A Blunt Warning To Investors (msn.com) China trade tumbles in May, adding to signs economic recovery is slowing | AP News Nothing new ?.. The English manor house that became a thriving commune - Positive News If you prepare to really live differently... What sports and tournaments is Saudi Arabia spending money on? (qz.com) SEC declares war on Binance and Coinbase: game over for crypto? (thearmchairtrader.com) UK to host first global summit on AI safety, Rishi Sunak announces | ITV News UBS Gets Breathing Room for Higher Capital Requirements (finews.asia) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Mind the gap: While Big Tech from the US has regained strength this year, Big Tech in China is more and more now becoming Small Tech. The Nasdaq Dragon Index w/Chinese stocks is still 68% below its all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 only 14%. https://t.co/4uuuz2mq2M" / Twitter worth a look? Nick Tyrone on Twitter: "Barnier, the man who negotiated the terms of Brexit from the EU side, saying here clearly that the UK can rejoin the EU anytime, debunking the naysayers on both sides of the European debate in Britain who say the EU would never let us back in: https://t.co/TUtlSR7vzc" / Twitter Peston on Twitter: "“The door is always open” Former EU Chief Brexit Negotiator @MichelBarnier tells @Peston the UK can rejoin the EU any time #Peston https://t.co/hz6pjwWpsy" / Twitter https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-07/dalio-says-us-in-late-big-cycle-debt-crisis-bloomberg-invest have a great day Team PVM

Ukraine dam: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka Goldman Sachs: "We have cut our judgmental probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months back to 25%, undoing our upward revision to 35% shortly after the SVB failure." + China having a go at property markets (cutting lending rates) UBS revises its Fed call: One more hike, in July, Now sees first cut (only) in December; was previously forecasting a cut in September "We continue to expect a recession in the US beginning later this year, despite the seemingly teflon nonfarm payroll employment gains." The market cap for the “S&P7” equals the Fed balance sheet China set to account for less than half of US’s low-cost imports from Asia. Reshoring index shows inbound Chinese goods fell to lowest level in 10 years amid geopolitical tensions Salesforce wants employees back in the office so badly that it's donating $10 to local charities for every day an employee comes into work The Securities and Exchange Commission is suing Binance with a series of charges, as the crypto giant continues to face growing regulatory pressures in the US The Swedish population is becoming less hostile to the idea of adopting the euro as the krona trades near its weakest levels ever UK house prices book first annual contraction in a decade. Property prices down 1% last month compared with May 2022, the first annual fall since December 2012 >> positive! -US Secretary of State Blinken Set to Travel to Beijing for Talks in Coming Weeks -"The governor of the Saudi wealth fund Yasir Al Rumayyan, himself a keen golfer, will be chairman of the new entity, which also includes the European golf tournament." >>> money doesn't talk, it screams! Markets : VIX below 15 SPX500 liking life above 4200, Russell catching up/breaking through 1825 area. The S&P 500 has clawed back months of losses --closing at 2023 high and highest level since last August UST 2y 4.50% still, the TGA should slowly start to rebuild cash (sell few UST's-over time), nothing new but this will be a drain over time (as opposed to H1 2023) USD stays firm near recent highs, as yields picked last few weeks, up so did the USD, the surprise for many is how well equity markets are doing overall >>> IMHO vols so low systematic fund keep on buying for now (and we broke 4150-4200 top end of the prev range), Call volume in $SPX continues to surge to new all-time highs Recently rising to $700B in a single day of notional value exchanged on the call side Ukraine dam: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka - BBC News this is so bagshittcrazy Christopher Miller on Twitter: "Video showing the flooding and devastation in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson oblast, a day after the Kakhovka Dam under Russian forces’ control was destroyed. https://t.co/k6ys9rnjij" / Twitter Africa mulls alternatives to US dollar - Chinadaily.com.cn "We have already witnessed a sharp slide in dollar reserves, which fell from 55 percent in 2021 to 47 percent in 2022, which is an unprecedented 8-percentage-point drop in a single year." Further Property Support Measures Expected In China Soon | FastReveal Lira Drop Accelerates In Sign Turkey Government’s Loosening Grip - BNN Bloomberg consequences of for ever borrowing with a huge current account deficit..currency breaks, big risk of going really wrong.. (venezuela, Argentina and so on) Brad Setser on Twitter: "Turkey has blown through a lot of reserves this spring trying to prop up the lira -- reserves that it really doesn't have. All its reserves and then some are borrowed. A new blog https://t.co/m5NEIXQnKI" / Twitter Swedish krona at weakest point against euro since financial crisis - The Local Today - 02/06/2023 - BBC Sounds early FB investor talks about AI, 22.5 minutes into it well worth a listen Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Goldman Sachs: "We have cut our judgmental probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months back to 25%, undoing our upward revision to 35% shortly after the SVB failure." https://t.co/bejMiwyDie" / Twitter China set to account for less than half of US’s low-cost imports from Asia | Financial Times (ft.com) Samantha LaDuc on Twitter: "Funny how the market cap for the “S&P7” equals the Fed balance sheet! 😂 • Apple $AAPL • Alphabet $GOOG • Amazon $AMZN • Meta $META • Microsoft $MSFT • Nvidia $NVDA • Tesla $TSLA Now let’s see if the Generals’ soldiers (Jr Tech) do some solid catch up with Value.🤔" / Twitter Salesforce Lures Employees Back in the Office by Donating to Charity (businessinsider.com) once folks get used to a style of work/living... London Tube journeys bounce back to near pre-pandemic levels | Evening Standard Almost back to normal in London! SEC Sues Binance (finews.asia) In Zürich sind Brunnen pink eingefärbt worden – das steckt dahinter (watson.ch) How Google is driving up rents in Zurich - SWI swissinfo.ch Nuts ! UK house prices book first annual contraction in a decade | Financial Times (ft.com) Everybody moans prices are too high, so it's a good thing !!! UK to have highest inflation in developed world this year, OECD warns | Business News | Sky News Housing: It's cheaper to buy than rent in only 4 major US cities, study shows (yahoo.com) The PGA Tour, LIV Golf and the European Tour have announced a surprise merger. What does it mean for the future of golf? (msn.com)