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Heatwaves scorch parts of three continents, threaten to top record temperatures this week A record $270 billion in bank-held commercial mortgages, of which about $80 billion is in office loans, will mature in 2023: Trepp. CRE loans make up about 25% of total US bank loans outstanding, but account for nearly half of all loans at community banks. The University of Michigan preliminary index rose by 8.2 points to 72.6, the highest since September 2021 Germany just unveiled its first ever China strategy."De-risking is urgently needed," the document reads. How that will be achieved is less clear Shout it out loud: Soundproof apartments catch on in Japan 'Very well': Doctor's update on Aussie sailor after months stranded at sea - brilliant According to new US government data, annualized interest payments on US debt just crossed $900 BILLION for the first time in history Speaking with UBS analysts on a call last week, Stability AI CEO Emad Mostaque said of AI: “I think this will be the biggest bubble of all time.” Prolonged Hollywood strikes could lead to 'an absolute collapse of an entire industry,' says IAC Chair Diller Markets : XAGUSD hits a 2month high, USD weakness, solar demand related etc USDollar broke down through key med term supports, momentum guys/funds could very well get involved...FX is alive! Equity markets, entering full earning season, big week next week, S&P superlatives below, pretty astonishing numbers ! UST yields bounced back on Friday after UMich survey sentiment on 2y highs, will remain wild over next couple of meetings, market debating on 1 more hike or not (beyond what is priced..) after each key macro data (sentiment isn't one..) Earnings season hits full stride after financials stumble | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) It is hard to find bigger superlatives, but here are a few via BofA's great quant team. The top 7 stocks: 1 … drove 73% of S&P 500 gains in 1H, each up 90% on average in 1H 2 … have a market capitalization of roughly equivalent to half of US GDP 3 … trade at a Price to Trailing Earnings (P/E Trail) ratio of ~40x. The S&P 500 Ex-7 trades closer to 15x 4. … is expected to represent all US corporate earnings growth and then some in 2Q – a 21% YoY gain vs. a 10% YoY loss for the rest of the S&P 500 5 ... TMT represents 8% of US GDP, 17% of S&P EPS and 40% of S&P market cap Commercial Real Estate Market Stress Poses a Challenge to Banks (stlouisfed.org) The US dollar's decline is good news for tech stocks (qz.com) Here come the $ bears Dollar’s Busted Bull Run Has Bears Calling End of an Era - Bloomberg Should all continue to drive flows towards EMG ! AI will be the 'biggest bubble of all time': Stability AI CEO (cnbc.com) Silver price hits two month high: is this the start of a bull run? (thearmchairtrader.com) US Consumer Sentiment Jumps to Near Two-Year High on Job Market (yahoo.com) St. Louis Fed President Bullard says he's stepping down in August (cnbc.com) As expected Hollywood strikes could lead to 'an absolute collapse': IAC's Diller (cnbc.com) AI potentially destroying a whole industry China-Australia relations 'stabilised, improved', Chinese top diplomat says | Reuters Allegedly Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/7 China's GDP growth in the second quarter was a disappointing 6.3% year on year. Because of the terrible performance over the same period last year, different consensus estimates ranged anywhere between 6.7% and 7.3%. https://t.co/mH82UfkBAt" / Twitter Interest rate hikes trigger record £2.1 trillion UK wealth collapse (cityam.com) Since a lot of wealth is in properties that would hardly ever be sold, whether you live in a property worth 50k or 650K doesn't really matter in near-term.. for those leveraged, it does, but don't forget only 30% of houses in UK actually have a mortgage attached to them.. Germany's first China strategy warns on asymmetric dependencies (qz.com) Barking mad: The funniest photos from the Comedy Pet Photography Awards 2023 (telegraph.co.uk) - brilliant pics The stuff of movies ! amazing Tim Shaddock: Key elements that helped Aussie sailor and dog survive months lost at sea (9news.com.au) Stay in Switzerland this summer, says travel industry ombudsman - SWI swissinfo.ch Swatch sues Malaysia for seizure of Pride watches - Nikkei Asia Virgin Orbit a promising company that couldn't make a profit (cnbc.com) Free money, and zero financing ? Heatwaves scorch parts of three continents, threaten to top record temperatures (yahoo.com) stay cool in the shade ! The Liberal Democrats and the long, hard climb back to political relevancy - CityAM XAGUSD - this is it folks...ready to take off ?

USD softer (weaker macro data, core inflation peaked etc, one more hike from FED in Sep most likely and priced - unch pricing, WTI breaking up, USDJPY, USDCHF breaking down and EURUSD, CABLE, AUDUSD even adn GOLD back above $1935, all on cue U.S CPI is heading down towards FED target, little doubt about that, though core inflation remains stubbornly elevated (shelter infl key...) and still way above FED target >>> Lower CPI good news for economy maybe & equity... in as much as it causes the Fed to cut rates faster (in the market's mind..eventually..) but if rates stay higher for longer..., it means more implicit tightening, so not great clearly.. China's exports fall most in three years as global economy falters, exports fell by 12.4% vs an expectation of -9.5% and imports -6.8% vs -4% expected. Exports fell the most in 3 years, Chinese demographics weak, a lot of attention put to JPN style 1990's situation going forward..full on deflationary scenario (....AND inflationary where ever reshoring is taking place - MEX, US, Vietnam and so on...) >>> Michael Pettis' Thread below is all is there is to know together, WELL worth reading, IMHO he and couple of others have a very good handle on what is going there.. BoC hiked 25bps to 5%, a 25year highs ECB's Visco : we are not very far from the peak in interest rates (that's what the market is pricing in really) Global GDP and consumer credit slowing, US 'traffic hitting the skids and rebook sales now negative / Thread below IEA Trims 2023 Oil Demand Forecast on economic headwinds - Global Oil demand set to rise By 2.2Mln BPD In 2023 tor reach record 102.1Mln BPD DeSantis would never be Trump’s VP India is considering banning exports of most rice varieties, a move that may send already lofty global prices of the food staple higher A scorching heatwave gripping southern Europe is expected to tip temperatures well into the 40C range this week and next The drop in inflation in June paves the way for the US economy to avoid a recession, former PIMCO chief economist says Markets : USDollar softer on CPI, next more lower, $ breaking bid support levels vs CHF, EURO, GBP, XAU, AUD etcc...(...it was not rallying when rates when up last few weeks..), Gold, WTI crude, commods all on cue higher after softer CPI, FED Sep expectation remain the same, more skipping till then >>> BIG moves, $ on the cups of a major break down UST2y yields drops sharply, over 40bps in few days-steeper curve Equity markets love a weaker USDollar, softer rates and vols.. while 4450+, SPX500 could be melting up towards 4600-4700 top of channel/range, earnings season starting shortly, commodity stocks and few other sectors joining in of late (weak $, higher crude etc and some thoughts China will throw the kitchen sink at the economy... well they already have!) Crude ticking up in price terms AND The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its lowest level since August 1983. Over the past 2 years we've seen a drawdown of 275 million barrels (44% decline) GOLD trading higher again, a reminder that betting against Gold is effectively betting that the debt problem is going to go away miraculously...it won't (whether you want to bet 'on' and how is another question..) Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening - Bank of Canada China's exports fall most in three years as global economy falters | Reuters Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/2 "The move underscores the difficult balancing act facing Chinese authorities as they try to defuse risks in the credit markets without destabilizing the financial system. While offloading weaker bonds may help the state pension protect the value of... https://t.co/r0PjATJPxP" / Twitter Rice: India mulls banning most rice exports as local prices surge - Times of India (indiatimes.com) Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) The Long View ✪ on Twitter: "Is the long awaited recession emerging? A few charts from different parts of the economy that suggest things may be starting to slow down uniformly 1) global GDP now cast is now negative 2) consumer credit is slowing 3) intermodal traffic hit the skids 4) Redbook sales are… https://t.co/F64WV4tPjM" / Twitter interesting few charts in there, fair points too! Student loans: How payments pinch renters, dash dreams of homeownership | The Hill Rewilding of Gloucestershire estate leads to biodiversity 'magic' - BBC News Do social media fuel fake news in Switzerland as much as in the US? - SWI swissinfo.ch Yes Inflation Drop Paves Way for US Economy to Avoid Recession: Economist (businessinsider.com) plenty of stocks trading 'in recession' ... S&P7 doesn't care..its about leverage, balance-sheet, debt ... Heatwave to grip southern Europe until at least end of next week (msn.com) Longevity enthusiasts want to create their own independent state. They're eyeing Rhode Island. | MIT Technology Review Boris Johnson early Covid WhatsApps still not passed to inquiry - BBC News EURUSD - 1.17?

USDollar nearing 15months lows, USDJPY doing what not many expected 1 week ago, CROSSJPY's shorts working...$ bull struggling, USDCHF really not been 'trading' well, and EURUSD 1.1050+ area super important on weekly charts, USDCNH also backed-off from 7.30 resistance...U.S CPI this afternoon, expected to be a low one, but watch out for core, 2yUST down to 4.86% going into data, after hitting 5+ few days ago Japan's changing views on price hikes open door for BOJ policy tweak.. >>> even in JPN, where we see excess demand creating inflationary pressure and higher rates.. Grocery is a problem at Amazon, claims Terry Smith Blue-Chip Debt Problems Are Just Getting Started: Credit Weekly - US job growth is slowing and consumer spending is looking increasingly sluggish. While blue-chip American corporates remain broadly healthy, some early signs of trouble are emerging, including rising costs and pressure on profit margins/Citi RBNZ unchanged overnight, as expected ''interest rates are constraining spending and inflation pressure as anticipated and required' Sweden poised to strengthen Nato’s northern defences ''Sweden's Nato membership is the most important change to European security arrangements since the end of the Cold War'' BoE Gov. Bailey: ''it will take time for the full impact of rate hikes, the MPC will remain vigilant as the impact of higher rates feeds through and tighter bank lending standards reflect appropriate risk management'' Markets : Crude now look to have bottomed out sub $70 WTI - USD weakness helping, 'technically' a weekly close above $80 would turn the trend bullish. USDollar has been trading 'badly' even with higher UST yields and USDCNH rally (weak china macro - rebounding slightly again btw), overall 1.11+ on weeklies (see chart below) and we could have a run higher.. USDCHF sub .8800 and USDJPY sub 138 and $ bulls will give the ghost (most likely on BoJ tweak this month >>> if not in July only a matter of time..), CROSSJPY's coming in nicely lower (run-lower stops etc)..all about U.S CPI next Equity markets love a bit of USD weakness and low vols/softer yields, not very much seem to bother them at the moment Bonds, big picture, continue to think that we are not far off high prints in Terminal rates, but higher for longer will continue to be debated for a while.. Nasdaq 100 to undergo rejiggering because few tech stocks now too big (cnbc.com) Analysis: Japan's changing views on price hikes open door for BOJ policy tweak | Reuters What are my options - JP Morgan Earnings | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Option explainer by our Koen:This article presents an educational example of using an Iron Condor strategy to capitalize on potential "volatility crush" during the earnings season, using JP Morgan's forthcoming earnings release as a case study Official Cash Rate remains on hold - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua (rbnz.govt.nz) Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Sweden poised to strengthen Nato’s northern defences | Financial Times (ft.com) Blue-Chip Debt Problems Are Just Getting Started: Credit Weekly (yahoo.com) Grocery is a problem at Amazon, claims Terry Smith (thetimes.co.uk) Terry Smith has explained his decision to dump his Amazon shareholding, accusing Andy Jassy, chief executive of the huge American retailer and technology group, of contradicting his own strategic principles ‘It’s absurd’: Italy’s judiciary in power struggle with far-right government | Italy | The Guardian Julius Baer Says Doubling AUM «Not Unrealistic» (finews.asia) UK banks can withstand fresh crisis, key test finds - BBC News Let's hope the BoE is better at forecasting this than inflation over the last 18months!! Gove’s department hands back £1.9bn meant to tackle England’s housing crisis | Housing | The Guardian really ? Munich hit by widespread rail disruption after storms - The Local UK Parliament on Twitter: "It's a 334-step climb to meet #BigBen in the Belfry, where the great Bell hangs. ​ Tickets for our popular #BigBen tours go on sale today at 10:00. New tickets are released every month: https://t.co/oYFXL9RsxR https://t.co/JAYsuEPFdu" / Twitter Radioactive Water Worries Japan’s Top Seafood Trade Partners (yahoo.com) I'll get a trout from the local shop.. Trump lawyers ask to delay Mar-a-Lago documents trial | The Hill EURUSD 1.1050-1.11+ close higher on weekly chart and we could run higher next few months

UK wages still strong! Andrew Bailey and Jeremy Hunt join forces to demand UK wage restraint. BoE governor and chancellor signal their determination to curb high inflation in Mansion House speeches Bullard speaks tonight, europe + U.S inflation data tomorrow pretty key Demand for European bond ETFs hits record high in first half. Fixed income bonanza comes as global exchange traded fund assets reach $10.3tn and surpass prior peak Sweden becomes NATO member, ''will join soonest possible'' >> "my message to those countries who are not yet spending 2% of GDP, the threat is real. We can't act when the crisis is here, we have to act before" , Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas speaking to reporters at the NATO summit. NATO to give Ukraine ‘clear and positive message’ on membership path: Stoltenberg North Korea threatens ‘shocking’ consequences after claims of US spy plane incursion. Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Kim Jong-un, has claimed North Korean planes repelled a US spy plane U.S average interest rate on a 30y mortgage rose to 7.15%, highest since October 2022 (highest level in 2008 was 6.6% - to put things in context, housing affordability hit a new low and average credit card int rates is now 22% in the U.S Fun fact is LNG-related shipping will soon overtake oil supertankers as kings of the ocean Shortages of battery metals and other critical minerals are looking less likely to stymie the transition to a low-carbon economy, the IEA says Markets : SPX500, BIG short been halved lately, we keep 4450 as resistance for now, CPI up next, expected to be lower, core will be key though as usual FXland, we stay short CROSSJPY's, lower the stop below entry price and run it ! USDCNH slighly softer/off highs, CABLE higher, YTD highs again, generally soft USD touch ahead of inflation data UST : market pretty (by some measures extremely) short TY, ahead of inflation data Crude grinding higher, seems base in place below $70 WTI, not that it should race much higher for now ''up on supply cuts, demand hopes'' Nasdaq 100 rebalancing and big JPY short squeeze | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Today we look at the market sentiment stabilizing overnight as China moved to extend support to the property market. With yields edging lower still yesterday, the JPY rally picked up further momentum - is that move chiefly positioning drive and will the US CPI data tomorrow offer support for USDJPY or accelerate its decline? We also discuss the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing that is set for next week and whether this will trigger notable volatility in especially the very largest cap US stocks. Elsewhere, we discuss UK yields dropping after mixed labor market and earnings data, gold making a bid at rallying through resistance and crude oil trading into range highs. This and more on today's pod Oil edges up on supply cuts, demand hopes | Reuters Andrew Bailey and Jeremy Hunt join forces to demand UK wage restraint | Financial Times (ft.com) and sticky inflation! Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Twitter: "After taking inflation into account, average pay including bonuses fell by 1.2% in the year to March to May 2023, or 0.8% excluding bonuses. ➡️ https://t.co/P9R52eIlUT https://t.co/LMtifgWojL" / Twitter MPs quiz mortgage providers as two-year fixed rates hit 15-year high – business live (msn.com) Mortgage rates soar to highest level for 15 years - BBC News Demand for European bond ETFs hits record high in first half | Financial Times (ft.com) NATO to give Ukraine 'clear and positive message' on membership path: Stoltenberg - Insider Paper Joe Biden relies on cue card for meeting with Rishi Sunak | Evening Standard North Korea threatens ‘shocking’ consequences after claims of US spy plane incursion | North Korea | The Guardian Hong Kong will ban more products from Japan if treated wastewater is discharged, its leader says | AP News LNG fleets to overtake oil supertankers in global gold rush - CityAM Norway ranked as one of the worst countries for foreigners to live in - The Local Grass is not always greener elsewhere...cost of living through the roof, same in Ozland etc Critical Mineral Shortages to Ease on Investment Surge, IEA Says - Bloomberg The orca uprising: whales are ramming boats – but are they inspired by revenge, grief or memory? | Whales | The Guardian going sailing ? i'm just going to be in my garden :-) Volcano near Iceland’s capital erupts for second time in a year | Evening Standard USD - $ bulls would not welcome a move below 138JPY

Week ahead : U.S inflation data (CPI) expected to in at 3.1% on Wed, slowest since March 2021, U.S banks kick off earning season (big earnings week towards end of the month), China also coming up with inflation and trade data, BoC decision, ZEW and NFP data was 'slower-weaker' than expected on Friday. NATO summit this week UK's Jeremy Hunt unveils plans to boost pension funds’ investment, reforms and even talks of partial rolling back on Mifid ! China’s producer prices sink again in June in latest sign of stalled recovery, Annual producer prices sank 5.4% in June, a ninth-straight decline and the steepest since December 2015, lots of new talks-chatters about China exporting deflation ''The eagle has landed'' : Joe Biden in UK to meet Sunak and King Charles amid Ukraine concerns The great semiconductor glut is still hurting Samsung, but not for much longer. Investors remain optimistic that the company will perform better as the chip industry rebounds Mercedes Benz becomes the latest automaker to adopt Tesla's EV charger Yellen had a ‘constructive visit’ to China with opportunities for ‘more frequent contacts’ in the future, she says Dutch PM hands in resignation to king to set stage for general election World breaks hottest-day record for third time this week, U.S. agency says Lithuania will host a NATO summit on Tuesday and Wednesday that is set to be dominated by the alliance's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Kyiv's membership application. Gold : Countries are so spooked by de-dollarization and the Western sanctions against Russia, they are increasingly moving gold assets back home for safekeeping Why a $1.5 trillion source of corporate financing is choking on higher rates Markets : SPX500 4400-50 area new short-term resistance UST yields 'steeper', 10's still above 4%, 2y UST yields dropped 10bps almost after NFP USDollar (..had not rallied on stronger US data earlier last week...) and weakened on slightly softer NFP Friday, USDCHF worryingly soft >>> a LOT priced in now for the USD and hikes into 2023, remember that 80bps of cuts priced in for 2023 ? good times...now market sees/priced another 1 possible 2 hikes for 2023.. >>> as discussed with you last week, we stay tactically short CROSSJPY from here, and look to sell 'rips' in equity to hedge/reduce exposure Crude steady $70+ Heavy stocks and bonds, heavy JPY crosses, heavy metals | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Asia shares turn mixed, China disinflation a drag | Reuters China Slides to Brink of Deflation, Adding Stimulus Urgency (yahoo.com) Why a $1.5 trillion source of corporate financing is choking on higher rates | Reuters Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Since 1980, peaks in U.S. 2-year yields have always been followed by a risk-off event within the next year or so: BofA's Oleg Melentyev. "The full extent of damage is unknown until the peak in policy tightening is behind us. We are clearly not at that point yet:" he wrote. https://t.co/gXc75QNcEh" / Twitter It's not all bad ! What went right this week: the good news you should know about - Positive News De-Dollarization: Countries Move Gold Assets Back Home for Safekeeping (businessinsider.com) Ukraine, Sweden and strategy: What will be discussed at the Vilnius NATO summit? (msn.com) Sweden is in final stretch for NATO membership. Will Turkey derail it? (cnbc.com) On the agenda: What's happening in Italy this week - The Local Bastille Day: What to expect from France's Fête nationale in 2023 - The Local Jeremy Hunt unveils plans to boost pension funds' investment (cityam.com) 'good news' Pressure on starting pay starts to ease (thetimes.co.uk) As Thames Water sinks, Macquarie Group continues its unstoppable rise | Business | The Guardian China's producer prices sink again in more signs of stalled recovery (cnbc.com) Why Mercedes Benz is embracing Tesla's EV charger (qz.com) 2023 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting: Summary Of The 48 Questions And Answers (NYSE:BRK.A) | Seeking Alpha Yellen had a 'constructive visit' to China with opportunities for 'more frequent contacts' in the future, she says (cnbc.com) Dutch PM hands in resignation to king to set stage for general election - The Irish News Twitter Blue accounts fuel Ukraine War misinformation - BBC News That platform going down the tube eventually if Musk continues like this (mind you already has to a certain extent..) World breaks hottest-day record for third time this week, U.S. agency says | Reuters Chris Christie doubles down on Trump attacks and Social Security cuts (cnbc.com) New York streets submerged by flash flooding - BBC News USDCHF needs to retake .9100+ to stop risk of downtrend accelerating through 0.8800 abd below - GBPCHF interesting topside if we can break 1.1550+ though, EURCHF not finding many lovers either, dull near lows 0.9750 still

G7 CB's combined balance-sheet : down again in June - this is definitely worth following, global liquidity pool reduced (and credit..) U.S employment data stronger and ISM services bouncing higher, rates curve pushing further out again >>> USD no higher though, Equity markets have entered the summer (il) liquid time on pretty stretched valuations, and the usual S&P7's also showing toppy signs with AI related stocks, beware out there, the mood can change swiftly, FXland we focus (tactically) on lower CROSSJPY's from here Fed's Logan says more rate hikes needed amid unexpected economic strength ECB’s Nagel says rates to stay restrictive for extended period BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida urged a "balanced decision" on yield curve control and said they will continue it for the time being, while he tempered expectations for a swift adjustment in policy and said there are no plans to change the 2% inflation target, but a tweak in July is possible (following various statements) The copyright battles against OpenAI have begun. Two authors are suing OpenAI, claiming that ChatGPT has unlawfully digested their books as part of its training data How Germany is turning to heat pumps to combat climate crisis Partners Group Appoints New CFO, Executive Team Member US National Debt has increased $935 billion since the debt ceiling was suspended last month Goldman Sachs downgraded shares of several top Chinese lenders, citing the risk of losses and saying their exposure to local government debt threatens to weaken earnings growth and put capital accumulation and dividends under pressure Twitter is threatening to sue Meta for hiring dozens of former Twitter employees to build a "copycat" Markets : QT (reduction of CB balance-sheet) and and super strong macro data in the U.S still. pushing global yields to 15 year highs, 10y UST +4% and 2y +5%, pushing those 'cuts' further down the curve FXland, as mentioned yesterday both risk and CROSSJPY's took a little tumble, after a very strong rally in Q3, particularly June (into quarter-end), look to establish tactical shorts there NQ : would seriously keep an exe on momentum there, ARKK, weak balance-sheets and so on - higher for longer rates will impact, expect pressure on PE multiples from here HYG and credit are a MUST watch now, after the 'everything rally in Q2', credit is key, see chart below, it's been consolidating and suddenly sharply down last few days (chart) q3-full-report-2023.pdf (home.saxo) BOJ deputy governor Uchida vows to keep yield control for now - Nikkei (msn.com) ECB’s Nagel Says Rates to Stay Restrictive for Extended Period (yahoo.com) Fed's Logan says more rate hikes needed amid unexpected economic strength | Reuters Yellen's visit to Beijing aims to heal rifts over a daunting array of China-US antagonisms | AP News The copyright battles against OpenAI have begun (qz.com) The first one of many to come ? Partners Group im Abwärts-Strudel - Inside Paradeplatz Partners Group Appoints New CFO, Executive Team Member (finews.com) Musk Calls Out Meta’s ‘Algorithm-Only’ Approach And ‘Social Media Monopoly’ After Threads Hits 30 Million Milestone (forbes.com) Finma Boss Rebuffs Criticism Over Credit Suisse (finews.asia) China to ban food imports from Japan; cites concerns on nuclear contaminated water (cnbc.com) strange! Goldman Slashes Stock Ratings of Big Chinese Banks - Caixin Global China Stock Delistings Set to Beat Record as Weak Firms Culled - Caixin Global How Germany is turning to heat pumps to combat climate crisis - The Local Very good point from CB here Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🌎 #BOC #BOE #BOJ #ECB #FED | Latest data showed #G7 CBs combined balance sheet (BS), converted in USD, kept falling in June, reaching the lowest level since Sep. 2020. https://t.co/9Rgeou1edc" / Twitter Wolf Richter on Twitter: "ECB Balance Sheet Plunged by €1.6 Trillion (-18%) from Peak. Bond Roll-Off Speeds Up. Spooked by relentlessly raging inflation in services, ECB puts QT into higher gear. https://t.co/Ex2FdiOgZM https://t.co/7qZXU2p3Ts" / Twitter NATO and Japan to cooperate in 16 areas, align defense equipment - Nikkei Asia London house prices fall at fastest rate since 2009 (cityam.com) High yield credit - not good, momentum softer, after 3/5months of consolidation

Boston Metal has been working for a decade to develop, refine and scale technologies for producing metals without less carbon dioxide emissions than the conventional processes. Since 2017, Boston Metal has been specifically focused on manufacturing clean, “green” steel U.S markets a little softer ( combination of FOMC minutes : staying firm-hawkish, China 'metal chip curbs' perhaps and 'stretched valuation' clearly), RTY notably softer and HK markets about 3% lower again >>> it really is worth noting the FOMO like rally we had into half-year-end and consider..(>>reduce few big winners, take some P, few hedges perhaps) ahead of QT and higher for longer in rates beginning to really make an impact (and no student debt cancellation in the U.S, and thus start to repay debt again), in FXland 1st time in a while CROSSJPY's took a near 1pct hit overnight (momentum there been super strong too, overdone, but clearly tricky timing when shorting these crosses..) FOMC minutes : A united U.S. Federal Reserve agreed to hold interest rates steady at the June meeting as a way to buy time and assess whether further rate hikes would be needed, even as the vast bulk expected they would eventually need to tighten policy further, according to meeting minutes released on Wednesday (...higher for longer) Chinese smartphone accounted for more than 70% of total sold in Russia in H1 2023 Saxo : Why options strategies belong in every trader's toolbox (new report) China's rare earths dominance in focus after mineral export curbs Germany did not listen to warnings about Russia, says Annalena Baerbock Foreign minister says Ukraine war has changed country’s mindset about ‘chequebook diplomacy’ Germany’s highest court has blocked government plans to hold a vote in parliament this week on a contentious plan to encourage home owners to replace fossil fuel heating systems with cleaner alternatives Meanwhile in France : L’Assemblée approuve le principe des portables «mouchards» British billionaire Jim Ratcliffe lambasted the UK’s energy policy, saying “daft” decisions in areas including nuclear power are crushing manufacturing Belarus' Lukashenko Offers Ukraine, Russia To Start Peace Talks Without Preconditions - Tass >>> will believe it, when I/we see it Meta has launched its Twitter competitor - Threads Markets : FOMC minutes : higher for longer, the one thing to watch now in H2 is credit, HYG etc, next up ADP, US claims, JOLTS and NFP tomorrow Equity markets : be careful out there, when momentum stops and we hit summer (il) liquidities FX : USD mixed, but all about CROSSJPY's, similar to Eq, had a monster rally last few months (overdone - btw overdone doesn't mean it's a sell, but it's at least time to be cautious on longs..) >>> EURJPY chart below : overdone Commods generally have a feel of global economy slowing (PMI all been weaker lately..) SAXO Q3 outlook : q3-full-report-2023.pdf (home.saxo) Why options strategies belong in every traders toolbox | Saxo Group (home.saxo) "Almost all" Fed officials agreed to skip June hike - minutes (msn.com) U.S. Treasurys: investors look ahead to key economic reports (cnbc.com) Explainer-China's rare earths dominance in focus after mineral export curbs (yahoo.com) Yellen heads to China as US seeks to stabilize ties (yahoo.com) Boston Metal: Green steel company backed by World Bank, AcrcelorMittal (cnbc.com) Germany's top court blocks a parliament vote on a contentious bill to replace heat sources in homes | The Independent Germany did not listen to warnings about Russia, says Annalena Baerbock | Germany | The Guardian France: L’Assemblée approuve le principe des portables «mouchards» - Le Matin And so it starts ! Threads: Ten million join Meta's Twitter rival, Zuckerberg says - BBC News The end of Twitter as we knew it, probably, but not sure this is a good thing that the likes of #META have so much control over everything we do these days! Alps to Atlas: How Swiss-inspired cheese arrived in the Algerian mountains - The Local British Billionaire Ratcliffe Slams UK Energy Policy as - Bloomberg Elon Musk Warns Short Sellers As Tesla Deliveries Soar 83%, Stock Pops (forbes.com) Teasing short sellers! not the first time.. Gold ring found in Fishlake by detectorist is bought by Doncaster council - BBC News Way to go! EURJPY . just to put a picture of the recent rally in 2023..

The Chinese government is tightening controls over exports of two key materials used to make computer chips. >>> From next month, special licenses will be needed to export gallium and germanium from China, which is the world's biggest producer of the metals >>> EU must respond to China's new rules requiring license to export two metals used in semiconductor manufacturing, the Dutch govt said Tue. The Netherlands on Fri announced new rules requiring license to export chipmaking equipment made by ASML China’s Caixin Services PMI for June eased to 53.9 versus 57.1 prior RBA : reiterated guidance that some further tightening may be required, depending on economic and inflation developments What Everyone Gets Wrong About Global Debt | Economics Explained, video below Solar is still a fairly small part of overall silver demand, but it’s growing. It’s forecast to make up 14% of consumption this year The UK's top universities reached an agreement on how to deal with generative AI. The technology can be seen as an “opportunity rather than a threat” to academic integrity Weak krone drives record summer for tourism in Norway White House: Powder found in West Wing that sparked evacuation confirmed to be cocaine ‘It has lost its appeal’: Canary Wharf faces an uncertain future Saudi Energy Min Tells Conference OPEC+ Will Do Whatever Necessary To Support Market Markets : Stellar H2 2023 performance in equity markets, helped by ''way to bearish sentiment back in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023..'' and various FED liquidity action in H1..., we now turned into all pretty bullish sentiment, with some major invest houses lifting their year-end targets towards 4500-4700 SPX500 and most sentiment indicators, AAII bull-bear spread, futures positioning all in very positive mood.. love for risk has spiked lately! summer markets lack liquidities and can turn swiftly, stay tuned! >>> see chart below 4600 no impossible while 4300 area holds USD remains 'rangy', much more about specifics elsewhere and CROSSJPY's overall, do watch out if we drift lower in risk, these JPY crosses are overbought, yields need to move lower ideally for a decent reaction lower there WTI crude should not trade much below $70 China curbs exports of key computer chip materials - BBC News SBI Holdings to help Taiwan's Powerchip build a plant in Japan | Reuters Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia Stocks Hit As China-U.S. Tech War Escalates | Barron's (barrons.com) What Everyone Gets Wrong About Global Debt | Economics Explained - YouTube A cool 16mins video 'Serious threat' remains at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, says Zelenskyy, as Kyiv hit by drone attack (msn.com) The World’s Appetite for Solar Panels Is Squeezing Silver Supply (yahoo.com) Can Saudi Arabia stop the ongoing slide in the oil price? (thearmchairtrader.com) Artificial intelligence: How this moment for AI will change society forever (and how it won't) | New Scientist Top UK universities agree on principles for using generative AI (qz.com) Nobel Laureate Warns UBS is Too Big For Switzerland (finews.asia) Ofwat boss fails to rule out more supplier struggles after Thames Water woes - CityAM Most terrible development over last 20+ years - now what ? go private ? sounds good, the essentially the UK government will/would take over the debt, which is big.. Weak krone drives record summer for tourism in Norway - The Local White House: Powder found in West Wing that sparked evacuation confirmed to be cocaine | Evening Standard Israeli troops withdraw in West Bank, Gaza rockets fired | Reuters FCA investigation asks if Crispin Odey was 'fit and proper' to work in financial services - (cityam.com) UK Hong Kong scheme ‘funding charity with links to Chinese Communist party’ | Hong Kong | The Guardian France Riots Follow Decades-Old Pattern Of Rage, With No Resolution In Sight (ndtv.com) Former Trump press secretary says he showed classified documents to people on Mar-a-Lago dining patio | The Hill 75 years of the NHS: How London is celebrating the anniversary (yahoo.com) ‘It has lost its appeal’: Canary Wharf faces an uncertain future | Business | The Guardian SPX500 - as long as 4300 area holds weekly, we can extent to 4600 area - top of the range

July! must be the start of the TdF, have a great start to H2 2023! US PCE deflator drops to 3.8% y/y as expected while the core drops a little more than expected to 4.6%, inflation cooling, as expected >>> FED expectations jumped higher for 2023, 2 hikes on the cards now UK Crypto, Stablecoin Laws Approved by Parliament's Upper House U.S. Supreme Court blocks President Biden's plan to cancel $430 billion in student loan debt Fiscal impulse cancelled, for now anyway France imposed partial ban on internet Higher interest encourage savings and/or deleveraging, perhaps both, eventually Media mentions of "artificial intelligence" just dropped off a cliff in last few weeks PIMCO says it's bracing for a 'harder landing' for the global economy, warning investors are too hopeful about interest-rate cuts Supreme Court blocking student-debt forgiveness will ‘devastate’ borrowers. No, it would ‘punish’ poor Americans. Who’s right? Turkey State banks 'resumed' intervention to support TRY, spending about $1 bln intervening Monday >>> USDTRY now 26+ Markets : 1year UST yield is now higher than S&P 500 earnings yield >>> not since 2000 The BIG JPM collar (sources) for this quarter now is ''short the 4670call on SPX, and long put spread 4215 vs 3560'', after a YTD rally of nearly 16% NQ best 1st half ever, up 30%, while China got hammered, what a divergence! particularly vs S&P7's ! AAPL closed on 3trn market cap - just whaoo U.S rates back up, after quarter-end bond rally, even EU rates higher with relative ease, that's after weak EU PMI last week >>> lots of issuance coming in H2, ongoing QT etc won't make it easy for bonds (and risk eventually), HYG etc in H2 2023 USD mixed, CROSSJPY's remain the name of the game with risk and yields higher! Crude WTI held/back above 70$ - Andurand HF story below below (assuming other HF did similar, may well be part of the story of Q2 prices lower..) and Saudis/Russia announced an extension of oil export curbs STELLAR year for stocks....remember how negative 95% of economist were at the start of the year ?.. we stick to our valuation model when investing for our clients, iit works very well, guessing market sentiment in short-term, quarter by quarter, is Very difficult, the 'market' and CNBC keep trying.. it's fun to watch Quarter end sprint for stocks. Historic moves in grains. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Data for week coming up : MONDAY July 3rd: Swiss CPI (Jun), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) TUE: July 4th RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, South Korean CPI (Jun), German Trade Balance (May) WED: July 5th FOMC Minutes, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Jun), EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI Final (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May) THU: July 6th NBP Announcement, Australian Trade Balance (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jun) Opec Seminar FRI July 7th : German Industrial Output (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Jobs Report (Jun) PIMCO Says It's Bracing for 'Harder Landing' for Global Economy: FT (businessinsider.com) Russia-Ukraine war updates for July 3, 2023: Wagner suspends recruitment (cnbc.com) France imposes partial ban on internet as riots continue over teenager’s killing (scroll.in) France riots ease as mayors call anti-violence rally - BBC News IN NUMBERS: The impact of riots and looting across France - The Local An oil-trading hedge fund just got slammed with a 51% loss amid this year's slump in energy prices (yahoo.com) Bridgewater Co-CIO Greg Jensen Sees ‘Bad’ Outlook for Bonds and Stocks - Bloomberg Supreme Court blocking student-debt forgiveness will ‘devastate’ borrowers. No, it would ‘punish’ poor Americans. Who’s right? (msn.com) Stock Market Rally That Shocked Everyone Is Finally Broadening Beyond Tech - Bloomberg certainly pretty much all analysts.. Supreme Court strikes down Biden's student loan forgiveness plan (cnbc.com) UK Lords Approve Financial Services and Markets Bill, Which Applies to Crypto, Stablecoins (coindesk.com) China Life Overseas Gears Up to Tap Mainlanders as Sales Rebound in Hong Kong - Caixin Global Dutch prime minister ‘disappointed’ by Swiss rejection of tanks re-sale - SWI swissinfo.ch Switzerland clings on as world’s top offshore wealth centre - SWI swissinfo.ch Citigroup Initiates Coverage of Apple (AAPL) with Buy Recommendation (msn.com) at 3trn market cap! Tesla delivers record number of cars after price cuts | Business News | Sky News Japan Said to Be Leaning Towards Softer Rules for AI Regulation Than EU | Technology News (gadgets360.com) Twitter introduces limit on number of tweets people can read in a day | This Morning (itv.com) Steve Barclay says he is willing to offer bigger pay rise to doctors in England | Doctors | The Guardian have a great start to the week, month, Q3 and H2 2023 ! Team PVM

U.S macro data stronger again yesterday (jobless claims fell 26K to 239K, Q1 GDP 2% higher than 1.3% expected) >>> more than 1 hiked got repriced into year-end, as Powell flagged on Wed ''2 hikes or more by year-end', 2y UST yields up 15bps, USDollar not much higher though, markets awaiting PCE data this afternoon! together with quarter-end flows China’s June manufacturing PMI: 49.0, third monthly contraction (steady) and China’s June non-manufacturing PMI: 53.2, weakest this year to date Riksbank Gov: Riksbank hiked 25bps to 3.75%..not enough...SEK weakening a 'relatively important' risk factor, EURSEK pushing higher again to all time highs Yen briefly hits 7-month low against dollar at 145 mark. Finance minister warns against excessive weakening of Japanese currency ECB hawks take aggressive stance on rates after UK inflation wake-up call. Persistent price pressures facing BoE boost case for keeping borrowing costs high, say eurozone policymakers Euro area core HICP inflation did not increase as much as feared in June (+10bp to 5.4% YoY). Services inflation was up 35bp on German base effects (rail ticket) but core goods inflation eased 30bp, with all measures converging to 5.5%... still pretty far from the ECB target down at 2% Independent review into the supervisory intervention on Interest Rate Hedging Products, pretty big news for UK banks... and all those SME's.. Austria’s foreign minister has declined to attend an Opec conference in Vienna next week amid an escalating dispute over the oil cartel’s decision to bar large numbers of prominent news organisations from attending After settlement of the bigly TLTRO repayment, excess liquidity declined by nearly euro 500bn yesterday, the most on record, till a huge €3.5tn out there Energy crisis and inflation push (ed?) more German firms into insolvency -study Markets : Rates converging with Powell's guidance on Wed Bonds, USD react and risk pushed higher still as economy 'booming', what happened to all the recession calls ? too early UST2y nearing 4% again, 3.88% latest SPX 4400+, in reality SPX7 powering ahead still Is the narrative on the economy and interest rates about to change? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and charts PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) ECB hawks take aggressive stance on rates after UK inflation wake-up call | Financial Times Frederik Ducrozet on Twitter: "🇪🇺 One size doesn't fit all, episode 47. Not everyone faces the same inflation "persistence". In France and the periphery, growth is stronger and inflation is lower than in core countries (the "unusual suspects" h/t @MoecGilles). Yet the ECB will stay the course for now. (1/2) https://t.co/LS0CNXwaQ6" / Twitter Powell says two or more hikes likely needed to cool inflation | Banking – Gulf News First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision (cnbc.com) China June PMI: manufacturing activity shrinks dashing recovery hopes (cnbc.com) Yen briefly hits 7-month low against dollar at 145 mark - Nikkei Asia Squeezed UK households withdraw record amount of savings in May | UK cost of living crisis | The Guardian Independent review into the supervisory intervention on Interest Rate Hedging Products | FCA >>> this is huge Nigel Farage claims his bank accounts have been closed 'without explanation' | UK News | Sky News UBS soll Stadt Zürich zu Uetlihof-Kauf drängen - Inside Paradeplatz Russia's Lavrov calls for UN Security Council membership to be expanded | Reuters Prigozhin's Villain Origin Story Revealed (newsweek.com) Mike Pence Makes Unannounced Trip To Ukraine | The Daily Caller Over 600 arrested across France in 3rd night of riots after fatal police shooting of teen (yahoo.com) Looting going on, some using the opportunity Energy crisis and inflation push more German firms into insolvency -study | Reuters have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

Saxo Bank Attains Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) Designation from Danish FSA, Reflecting its Important Role in the Financial System Gustav Klimt’s Lady with a Fan sells for £85.3m, breaking European record! US Data surprises to the upside : beating expectations, reducing the likelihood of recession, new home purchases jumped 12.2%, the fastest annual rate in over a year, durable goods unexpectedly climbed 1.7% and consumer conf reached highest level since early 2022. The data support pricing of another Fed hike, Powell may address when he and other central bankers convene today in Europe (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey.. and Ueda talking) Lagarde speech: Need to bring rates into ‘sufficiently restrictive’ territory to lock in our policy tightening That Bundesbank article on Monday, ...'“In Europe, many pensions and insurance companies were forced (by their mandates) to buy bonds with negative yields (a market which at one point reached the size of $18 trn), which essentially means they were losing money from day one.” , remember that 100y Austria bond that was issued at the peak ZIRP...good times, 'too many were hiding behind their mandate...it made ZERO sense, they wouldn't have done it for themselves, but they 'had' to do to their investors, absolute madness....'' BlackRock's Fink said he's no longer using the term "ESG" (environment, social and governance) because it is being politically "weaponized" and he's "ashamed" to be part of the debate on the issue Brexit shame: Three-quarters of Brits ‘not proud’ of leaving EU President Joe Biden is kicking off a more than $42 billion plan to give every American household access to high-speed internet by 2030 Quarter-end flows in equity, expected to be a decent net sell ''$150bn in US equities for sale at month/quarter-end . JPM'' ...caviat this is fairly well know since last week..news contributed to the peak Friday OpEx...a few tech/AI type names lost their momentum too WSJ-U.S. Considers New Curbs on AI Chip Exports to China. Restrictions come amid concerns that China could use AI chips from Nvidia and others for weapon development and hacking UBS to cut more than half of Credit Suisse workforce, report says Oz CPI came in decently lower at 5.6% YoY vs 6.8% in May, now a 13months low, markets trim expectations for higher rates Markets : USDJPY 2023 highs 144+, CROSSJPY's still going as risk and yields move higher VIX low point is typically in July - watch out for seasonals etc German bond yield curve most inverted in nearly 31 years CROSSJPY's higher on higher yields and risk, AUD lower on softer CPI, mixed bag going into quarter-end flows Equity markets recovered on strong strong US data, consumer sentiment Saxo Bank Attains Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) Designation from Danish FSA, Reflecting its Important Role in the Financial System | Saxo Group (home.saxo) This is great news for Saxo clients! Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇪🇺 Total deposits' outflows continued in May (but at a faster pace than in April) https://t.co/zjJFbWfJmS https://t.co/cnbh0AXIC6" / Twitter Austrian painting sets European record in £74 million auction - The Local The Almighty US Consumer Reasons that make her continue to spend spend spend.... 1. US housing market appears to be finding its footing again even as mortgage rates remain elevated. April home prices gathered in 20 cities by Case-Shiller grew 0.91% from March, and the year-over-year decline is now only 1.0% 2. The travel sector continues to show signs of post-pandemic strength and cruise line company CCL reported results this morning that are getting a strong reception. 3. Consumer confidence edges higher. Conference Board released its monthly consumer confidence survey and the reading hit its highest level of the year -- jumping to 109.7 from 102.5 a month ago (GS) Interest rates: Traders trim Reserve Bank of Australia rate rise bets as CPI suprises (afr.com) Prigozhin's March on Moscow (corrected) - by Timothy Snyder (substack.com) good read i'd say Russian mercenary chief Prigozhin is 'dead man walking': Eurasia Group (cnbc.com) ...quite honestly everyone has got their views, can go either way, hard to think Putin's got stronger during loast week's events, but hey ho, we shall see US targets Wagner Group in curbs on gold firms suspected of funding mercenary force | Reuters and finally The Wagner Group pays twice as much as the Russian military (qz.com) Biden to announce $42 billion high-speed internet initiative (cnbc.com) Black Rock CEO Larry Fink "ashamed" to be part of ESG political debate (axios.com) what are we going to do with all those ESG ETF's :-) >> what next ? climate action ETF instead or biodiversity or hydrogen ?... they will find another gimmick to attract funds.. Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "$700 billion increase in US National Debt since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 weeks ago under the "Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023." Only the government could get away with naming a plan to borrow and spend trillions of dollars "fiscally responsible." https://t.co/GkP9MyzZTk" / Twitter Brexit shame: Three-quarters of Brits 'not proud' of leaving EU (thelondoneconomic.com) Such a populist calamity from sold by those great politicians...The promise was a better deal and access to the single market. That was what people voted for when voting to leave. And it was incorrect, thus the polls telling us people now want to rejoin, not too hard to understand Housing expert: Here’s how to ‘bring affordability back into check’ for buyers (yahoo.com) >>> "The way you bring affordability back into check is one of three ways: You either raise incomes, you lower rates, or you lower home prices." Nach CS-Schock-Abbau: Licherlöschen in Zürich? - Inside Paradeplatz Brutal Tens of thousands of Credit Suisse staffers are about to find out if they still have a job (yahoo.com) Blackrock Gives Bitcoin a Huge Boost (finews.asia) yups - when the big institutional names get involved it's for the long-term Contingency plans reportedly being drawn up for Thames Water collapse | Utilities | The Guardian from bad to worse ! simon wren-lewis on Twitter: "Y'days post: Wishful thinking on UK inflation https://t.co/o5KBlR0a9R Whether workers or firms are causing domestically generated UK inflation is beside the point, as the cure is the same: reduce aggregate demand to match poor supply which reflects disastrous policy since 2016." / Twitter Warren Buffett: How to increase your worth by 50 percent (cnbc.com) Low water again hampers Rhine river shipping in Germany | Reuters here we go again HAVE A GREAT DAY TEAM PVM

Bundesbank may need recapitalisation to cover bond-buying losses and BIS admit (in their report) that the pandemic spending was basically way too big and too long-lasting >>> so now all folks are hit through higher inflation and rates and pay the price for their irresponsible actions... accountability ? ...sadly suspect it will not be any Central Bank's or politician's responsibility.... Russia : Prigozhin's coup may have failed. But it showed Putin's war has failed too – creating the biggest crisis of his rule. Russia uprising updates from June 24: Wagner agrees deal to end armed uprising, Warlord Prigozhin to leave Russia for Belarus >> maybe we reaching some sort of conclusion, maybe the situation deteriorates, depending on who you listen to.. A law firm was fined $5,000 after one of its lawyers used ChatGPT to help research a court brief. The document included references to some cases and opinions that didn't exist... >>>>> The lawyer said he had "no idea" ChatGPT could fabricate information Danone and Kellogg are among 75 consumer goods companies that French authorities have asked to cut prices, according to a list seen by Reuters that sources say the government is using for the initiative German house prices fall by record 6.8% as higher mortgage costs deter buyers BoE : 'The balance of supply and demand in the labour market has got to be made looser.' 'It will be painful, but the Bank will have to carry on increasing interest rates to bring this about' BoJ : Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno: Important For FX to move stably reflecting econ fundamentals - ''Closely watching''FX moves with high sense of urgency. A Bank of Japan policymaker said that the central bank should review its yield cap program “at an early stage,” noting its high costs, a summary of opinions from a June policy meeting showed Monday FED : markets continue to digest Powell's testimony that signaled more hikes into year-end, though Bostic pushed back against the idea saying he would hold rates at current levels for long into next year Bitcoin hits more than 1-year high amid BlackRock ETF excitement German business sentiment points to likelihood of longer recession.The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 88.5 this month from 91.5 in May Sweden will have an entire city made of wood in 2027 Die Liquiditätskrise bei der Credit Suisse hat sogar die Nationalbank überrascht. Für sein langes Zusehen gerät nun SNB-Präsident Thomas Jordan in die Kritik TRY hits a new low near $26, only the Argentine Peso had a more torrid year, down 30% YTD Markets : Equity markets 'toppy' since OpEx Friday 10days ago, internals weak, S&P7 slightly off top, going to be a long summer Bond curve volatile still, higher for longer, inversions etc USDollar mixed, CROSSJPY's : looking for sign of a peaking process, CHFJPY opportunity to short up here (long-term), looks way overdone. USDCHF struggling to regain .9000+, ecent rallies, USDCNH 7.24 now ..AUDUSD struggling still to hold on to any rallies Commods a little higher, crude a little higher on Russia, after a torrid week last week Broadly speaking stuff like BUBA news, and higher for longer rates, are slowly but surely beginning to weigh on consumer sentiment and spending habits...going to be a long stretch till rates actually come off, bad credit #HYG should come under pressure next over next few months, as rates stay high for longer. PMI in Europe were pretty weak last week, including French services PMI. Bull market status teetering in places | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Excellent podcast as usual - nice 17mins roundup Annual Economic Report 2023 (bis.org) They admit that with 'the benefit of insight'..really..??!... that the emergency monetary and fiscal spending during pandemic was way too big basically!''...shocking And now folks pay the price for their irresponsible actions ? accountability ? Geldpolitik: Der Bundesrechnungshof warnt vor Verlusten der Bundesbank (wiwo.de) Financial Times on Twitter: "Bundesbank may need recapitalisation to cover bond-buying losses https://t.co/LJE6Neg8aO" / Twitter Kritik an Thomas Jordan: Hat der Präsident der Nationalbank beim CS-Debakel zu lange gezögert? | Tages-Anzeiger (tagesanzeiger.ch) BOJ member called for review of yield cap program at June meeting | The Japan Times ‘A huge humiliation’: failed putsch exposes deep flaws in Putin’s regime | Financial Times (ft.com) the pro's and con's of it all (and consequences) won't be known for a while Russia uprising updates from June 24: Wagner agrees deal to end armed uprising, Warlord Prigozhin to leave Russia for Belarus | Financial Times (ft.com) Basket case Britain is back – and a recession is inevitable (telegraph.co.uk) Electric Vehicles May Be Too Hazardous for Teen Drivers (newsweek.com) German house prices fall by record 6.8% as higher mortgage costs deter buyers | Financial Times (ft.com) good! new generation will get better prices Danone, Kellogg among 75 companies France has asked for price cuts - document (yahoo.com) Law Firm Fined $5K for Using ChatGPT to Write Brief With Fake Cases (businessinsider.com) Crash der Struki-Glamour-Leonteq - Inside Paradeplatz Bitcoin hits more than 1-year high amid BlackRock ETF excitement | Reuters UBS: A Real Bargain? (finews.asia) France has nearly vanquished inflation crisis of the last year, but will face stronger price pressure in the years to come, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire says L'inflation ne reviendra pas aux niveaux « très faibles » d'avant la pandémie selon Bruno Le Maire (latribune.fr) German business sentiment points to likelihood of longer recession | Reuters Why more and more German citizenship applicants are suing the Berlin government - The Local Sweden will have an entire city made of wood in 2027 (interestingengineering.com) North Koreans warn of nuclear 'war of revenge' at rallies denouncing US (telegraph.co.uk) crazy world of crazy propaganda and fake news Japan may have entered 9th COVID-19 wave: virus expert - Nikkei Asia