#Copper use going forward...National Grid taps shareholders to help fund £60bn low-carbon energy switch. Infrastructure firm raises £6.8bn to connect homes to renewable energy sources across US and UK, and you can extrapolate that in pretty much every countries #NVDA up yesterday the expected 9% (as per implieds), while rest of the market decided to take a breather ( SPX: bearish engulfing the previous 6 days. Similar to that April 4 candle-must monitor price action) as mentioned recently, it wouldn't be a bad thing to consolidate in eq, commods, metals for a little while. Littel USD direction, CROSSJPY,'s and CROSSCHF's have done well on low vol environment (carry plays been flavor of last month or two) Janet Yellen says many Americans still struggling with inflation. US Treasury secre tary expresses concern over ‘substantial’ increases in living costs U.S & EU PMI beat estimates : S&P Global flash May composite PMI advanced by more than 3 points to 54.4, fastest pace in 2 years Euro zone May business growth at year high >>> Fed language in minutes was 'hawkish', as seen in the broader Fed sentiment index UK household energy price cap to fall 7%, in August, good news! Supercore Inflation Trending Higher/Apollo Fed’s Bostic expects inflation to keep coming down — but slowly Tesla's new data on Autopilot safety doesn't tell the full story . The company says its controversial self-driving tech is 11 times safer on average. Should we trust that? Japan's inflation slows further, keeping BOJ cautious on rate hikes SEC completes abrupt U-turn to approve Ethereum ETFs in ‘politically driven’ move National Grid taps shareholders to help fund £60bn low-carbon energy switch | National Grid | The Guardian Copper price to rocket to $40,000 a tonne, says top trader Andurand ( ft.com ) Fed’s Bostic expects inflation to keep coming down — but slowly ( msn.com ) Janet Yellen says many Americans still struggling with inflation ( ft.com ) Japan's inflation slows further, keeping BOJ cautious on rate hikes | Reuters Euro zone May business growth at year high, PMI shows ( msn.com ) SEC completes abrupt U-turn to approve Ethereum ETFs in ‘politically driven’ move | Fortune Crypto China’s distressed asset managers in the spotlight, ‘rescue’ role of troubled state-backed firms questioned amid property woes | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Dry Bulk Flows — Breakwave Advisors Supercore Inflation Trending Higher - Apollo Academy Google, Meta and other tech giants aim to revive the carbon market ( qz.com ) Tesla says Autopilot is safer for drivers — but that's not the whole story ( qz.com ) Withers Launches Campaign Website for CS AT1 Bondholders ( finews.asia ) There are now more daily marijuana users in the US than daily alcohol users | AP News Scarlett Johansson's OpenAI feud rekindles fear in Hollywood | Reuters Norway to be taken to court by WWF over deep sea mining ( thelocal.no ) Kosovo lawmakers back deal to rent jail space to Denmark | Reuters Is it constitutionally possible to revoke this election? ( prospectmagazine.co.uk ) surely not! Know your audience when you are campaigning ... Rishi Sunak: PM mocked for football blunder on campaign visit - BBC News and this... Post Office Horizon IT inquiry: Paula Vennells to be questioned by lawyers representing victims – live ( theguardian.com ) Child treated for overdose as vapes spiked with nitazenes - BBC News Make this stop for crying out loud Donald Trump-RFK Jr. feud comes to a head at Libertarian National Convention ( thehill.com )

UK CPI showed a persistent inflation, markets were expecting real signs of a cooling off, key Services numbers was +5.9% vs +5.4% exp. General election called : 4th July, pretty desperate timing/set of affairs for Sunak & Co Federal Reserve minutes: Policymakers saw a longer path to rate cuts, nothing really new, rates market didn't react, high for longer, a slightly higher neutral policy rate ? Metals, #copper, #GLD were overdone, now a few ugly days ahead working out short-term excesses Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says 'demand is just so strong' for its hot AI chips, as expected by implieds a move of 8-9% was expected and here we are after hours China signalled it is ready to unleash tariffs as high as 25% on imported cars with large engines, as trade tensions escalate with the US and European Union Apple is the 'hidden AI play,' as its hardware will be the key hub for AI apps/Eisman Norway will further restrict access for Russian tourist travellers due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, blocking almost all entry Yardeni : U.S Household mortgage debt as a percent of household real estate value is near an all-time low Florida’s 125% surge in property-Insurance bills, car insurance (E-car mainly) up too GOLDMAN: “.. our projections now imply that the current fiscal path would push the debt-to-GDP ratio to 130% by 2034 (vs. 97% in the same year under our 2019 projections) and real interest expense to 2.3% of GDP (vs. 1.5% in our 2019 projections) ..” AMZN choses Spain - AWS plans to invest €15.7 billion in Spain, supporting 17,500 jobs annually in local businesses Surging German wage growth casts doubt on timing of ECB rate cuts Collectively agreed pay rose 6.2% in the first 3 months of the year at the fastest pace in almost a decade, Bundesbank says Janet Yellen urges EU to join US in curbs on cheap Chinese exports Federal Reserve minutes: Policymakers saw a longer path to rate cuts ( yahoo.com ) Surging German wage growth casts doubt on timing of ECB rate cuts ( ft.com ) 2024 is heavy metals | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Copper Extends Decline as Record Prices Deter Buyers in China - Bloomberg Nvidia forecasts quarterly revenue above estimates, unveils stock split | Reuters Chips 'Demand Is Just so Strong': Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang ( businessinsider.com ) AWS plans to invest €15.7 billion in Spain, supporting 17,500 jobs annually in local businesses ( aboutamazon.eu ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 "China is urging the country’s top carmakers to source up to a quarter of their chips locally by 2025 as the world’s biggest automotive market looks to build a semiconductor supply chain amid escalating tensions with the US." https://t.co/kXvCE5Oxnx via @ft" / X Janet Yellen urges EU to join US in curbs on cheap Chinese exports | International trade | The Guardian U.S. House Approves Crypto FIT21 Bill With Wave of Democratic Support ( coindesk.com ) Norway to block entry for most Russian tourists ( yahoo.com ) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine ( cnbc.com ) Chris Mason: Why did Sunak decide to call summer election? - BBC News Apple Is a 'Hidden AI Play' As a Central Hub for AI Apps: Steve Eisman ( businessinsider.com ) China Hints at 25% Car Tariff as Deadline for EU Probe Looms ( msn.com ) Rising waters plague septic tanks, threatening pollution and health risks - Washington Post Insurance prices through the rood in some places and things like auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 42% over the past 2 years. That's the biggest 2-year spike since 1977 Florida’s 125% Surge in Property-Insurance Bills Sows Havoc ( yahoo.com ) 46 percent say Trump did something illegal in hush money case: Poll ( thehill.com )

FED officials urge patience on timing of initial rate cut (though overall speeches from fed officials slightly less hawkish..), UK Inflation not quite as low as expectations #GBPCHF nicely does it, #NVDA all about guidance (#AMZN below news + implied vols say +/- 10pct move approx for after hours fun) >>> so long as VIX remains around/below 12 it will force-push more systematic buying of 'carry' in risk, and in FXland JPY and CHF will remain soft How sanctions played havoc with Iran’s ageing helicopter s. US-made Bell 212 carrying country’s president was almost 30 years old when it crashed into a mountainside Former South Africa president Jacob Zuma banned from running in next week's election due to criminal conviction Barclays Plc is among Wall Street firms weighing whether to require scores of workers to commute to company offices five days a week The European Central Bank holds 20% of Atos bonds, La Lettre says Jamie Dimon plans to step down in the coming years, preparing the ground, which should hardly be a s surprise! US electricity demand from EVs jumps to new highs in early 2024 Russian defence ministry proposes revising Baltic Sea border, what next Israel has Recalled their Ambassadors from Ireland and Norway for “Consultations” following the Governments of the Two Countries announcing their Recognition today of a Palestinian State. Watch Barr Says Fed Needs to Sit Tight for Longer Than Thought - Bloomberg Fed's Waller wants 'several months' of good inflation data before lowering rates ( cnbc.com ) Fed’s Bostic expects inflation to keep coming down — but slowly ( msn.com ) Fed officials urge patience on timing of initial rate cut | Reuters UK inflation falls less than expected, dashing June rate cut hopes | Reuters Canada's inflation cools to 3-yr low of 2.7%, in boost for rate cut bets ( msn.com ) RBNZ keeps interest rates steady, sees delayed cuts amid sticky inflation ( yahoo.com ) Russian defence ministry proposes revising Baltic Sea border ( yahoo.com ) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine ( cnbc.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "NDRC: "China will take further actions, including issuing more local government special bonds and expediting the promotion of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in deals for consumer goods, as it seeks to consolidate the recovery trend." https://t.co/KE6g55EpSO " / X https://qz.com/amazon-nvidia-hopper-chip-blackwell-1851490624?utm_content=1851492124&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_Europe_Africa    guidance will be key for #NVDA Silver Outpaces Gold to Be One of Year's Best-Performing Major Commodities - Bloomberg Five metals commodities for the energy transition – The Armchair Trader US electricity demand from EVs jumps to new highs in early 2024: Maguire | Reuters The European Central Bank holds 20% of Atos bonds, La Lettre says | Reuters This is the new normal : The European Central Bank holds about 20% of French IT consulting firm Atos' bonds, making it the largest bondholder of the group which is reviewing creditors' proposals to restructure its 4.8 billion euros ($5.21 billion) of debt, French media La Lettre reported on Monday China Stocks Rebound Set to Continue With Gains for More Segments - Bloomberg How sanctions played havoc with Iran’s ageing helicopters ( ft.com ) ‘Nowhere To Go’: Rohingya face arson attacks in Myanmar’s Rakhine State ( msn.com ) The Fragile Fraternity of China and Russia by Nina L. Khrushcheva - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org ) Barclays Weighs Five-Day Office Workweek for Staff Tracked by Finra - BNN Bloomberg Self-driving cars may hit the U.K.'s roads by 2026 thanks to a new law ( qz.com ) Gove’s plan to ‘make marchers pay’ as he vows to tackle antisemitism ( msn.com ) Former Post Office CEO Paula Vennells arrives at inquiry into Horizon IT scandal | ITV News Former South Africa president Jacob Zuma banned from running in next week's election due to criminal conviction | World News | Sky News Microsoft CEO says the key to success is continuing to learn and change | Fortune America's Most Powerful Banker Prepares His Departure ( finews.asia ) JPMORGAN/KOLANOVIC ".. A negative stance on equities has hurt the performance of our multi-asset portfolio over the past year, though this has been in part compensated by an OW in commodities and high cash and fixed income yields. However, with very high equity valuations (as well as tight credit spreads and low levels of volatility), we do not see equities as attractive investments at the moment, and we don’t see a reason to change our stance. Rates are restrictive and likely to stay so for longer, inflation readings have been higher than expected (on average), investor positioning and valuations are high, lower cohorts of consumers are showing stress, and geopolitical uncertainty is at the highest level in decades. We don’t think that narrow themes like AI chips can compensate for all of those traditional market challenges that historically worked against the cycle." Büro-Auszug der CS: Auch im Sihlcity wird viel Platz frei – Inside Paradeplatz

VIX ended last week around 12 , still there, its lowest close since November 2019, markets all very calm, FX vols on the floor too, still.. 1week EURUSD straddle is total of 50 usdpips :-) >>> if you wanted to buy a equity hedge, now is the time Overall U.S economic data is coming in slightly softer, inflation remains sticky though and Fed officials are being careful to call for early cuts , June and/or Jul yin play, with an asymmetric FED, things can swing quickly (either way). Few arguments for a short-term #copperpeak #commods overall need some sort of consolidation (see below comments) Fed's Mester: Previously, I expected three rate cuts this year. I do not think that's still appropriate. Inflation risks are tilted to the upside Fed staff expect core PCE rose 2.75% in April from a year earlier. Most analysts likewise have core PCE rising by 0.24% in April. That would put the 6-month annualized rate of core PCE inflation at 3.2% Two brothers who studied at the MIT were arrested on Wednesday on US charges that they carried out a cutting-edge scheme to exploit the Ethereum blockchain’s integrity and steal $25 million worth of cryptocurrency - just like that FT-A war over Taiwan between the US and China would trigger the biggest international crisis since the second world war, this is a very good article Saxo summary on China's housing policies (below) Summer interest rate cut ‘possible’ as inflation eases, Bank of England boss says RBA was on the ‘path to reducing rates’ but not anymore/minutes Commods, precious, industrial metals need some sort of consolidation after huge rallies YTD Kolanovic reiterated his view in a note to clients late Monday, urging them not to buy stocks, while acknowledging that this negative outlook has hurt JPMorgan’s model portfolio . GOLDMAN: “.. The Federal Reserve will not be in the first wave of cutters because of the pickup in sequential core inflation during Q1. .. However, we also estimate that the market-based core PCE index .. rose just 0.18%, a pace that would be quite consistent with a July cut if maintained.” 71% of US advisors have little to no gold allocation, i.e. it is less than 1% of their portfolio China/Hong Kong Market Pulse: New Approach to Housing Policy and Market Implications | Saxo Hong Kong ( home.saxo ) Summary:  The Chinese housing market is undergoing a significant policy shift, as evidenced by the April 30 Politburo meeting which shifted focus from affordable housing to addressing housing inventory overhang. This was followed by the State Council's May 17 conference, unveiling policies to boost demand, including the PBOC funding SOEs to buy unsold properties. As the Third Plenary Session approaches, further policies are anticipated to boost sentiment and ensure stability, but the market faces risks if reforms focus solely on state-driven initiatives, potentially leading to a summer setback. Chinese Tech Stocks Still Have Valuation Appeal With Profits, Buybacks - Bloomberg Investors await Nvidia earnings, commodities on the rise: Morning Brief ( yahoo.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "It's not often we find the BCOM TR index in overbought territory, and it highlights the broad nature of the recent rally with MTD gains being led by precious metals (8.7%), industrial metals (7.4%), and grains (7%). #Natgas, #silver and #copper all in need of consolidation. https://t.co/5Be8JSufrG " / X Copper's record run at risk as US shipments calm speculator frenzy - MINING.COM In-Gold-We-Trust-report-2024-english.pdf ( ingoldwetrust.report ) How Texas and Florida wooed Wall Street ( qz.com ) CalPERS opposes entire ExxonMobil board of directors suite over climate change suit ( qz.com ) JPMorgan’s (JPM) Marko Kolanovic Is Last Prominent Bear on Wall Street - Bloomberg Jamie Dimon: JPMorgan stock is too expensive ( cnbc.com ) Summer interest rate cut ‘possible’ as inflation eases, Bank of England boss says ( msn.com ) 7 May 2024 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA RBA was on the ‘path to reducing rates’ but not anymore ( msn.com ) The battlegrounds that could decide a US-China war over Taiwan ( ft.com ) US says it was 'unable' to provide Iran assistance after helicopter crash | Reuters Separatist stances in Taiwan root cause of the severe situation in Taiwan Strait - Chinadaily.com.cn Iran president death latest: Ebrahim Raisi's funeral to begin today - but some protesters are celebrating his death | World News | Sky News Two former MIT students charged with stealing $25 million of crypto in 12 seconds | CNN Business New York AG has reached a settlement with crypto lender Genesis for $2 billion to repay investors ( qz.com ) It's not just in the U.S.... to a certain extent it's everywhere you look Spanish debt hits record €1.6 trillion, 109% of GDP, and grows at 5,1%, twice rate of GDP, 2% | The Corner Philipp Hildebrand fährt mit Kunsthaus Zürich in die Wand – Inside Paradeplatz

Commods, copper, Gold new highs and other metals higher again, Nickel (New Caledonia risk) #XAGUSD made it to $32.50 overnight, GOLD vs UST's also breaking down through a 35year support line (chart available on request) #SPX500 : Shorts dying a slow death. Charts showing (charts available on request) QQQ/SPY short interest as a % of shares outstanding. Global semis positioning : Pull-back from March highs but long-term trend still positive Investor allocations in US stocks have reached the highest share in history. Households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors financial asset allocation in equities just hit 52%. Since 2022, this percentage has increased by ~7%, even surpassing levels seen in the Dot-com bubble Ole S Hansen on X: "#Container #shipping rates jumped 11% last week, driven by strong gains on all major China to EU and US routes. The Drewry composite index at $3511 per 40ft box was the highest in three months, partly reversing some of the softness seen following the Dec/Jan Red Sea spike https://t.co/QQ7gPvsudD " / X G erman container line Hapag-Lloyd says shipping demand is growing and freight rates are rising , in a fresh sign of a potential rebound in a sector at the center of international trade Nickel price surges as New Caledonia riots raise concerns over supply. Industrial metal critical in electric vehicle batteries climbs almost 7% How battery cell formats will change the face of the EV industry Google Cloud accidentally deletes UniSuper’s online account due to ‘unprecedented misconfiguration’ From Petrodollar Recycling to Gold Recycling: Jeff Currie , CSO of Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group, has his theory about why Gold rises despite rising real interest rates. Emerging countries like the BRICS would trade oil in local currency & no longer in Dollars. But the local currency would immediately be exchanged for gold b/c nobody wants to hold Chinese renminbi or Indian rupee The importance of distinguishing climate science from climate activism Jamie Dimon challenges Biden on China policy G7 warms to plan for Trump-proofing Ukraine aid Georgia could become one of the most important election in 2024! BlackRock Global CIO of Fixed Income, Rick Rieder, takes the contrarian position that the Fed will need to cut interest rates to tame inflation >>> so hang on, this is a time when we can't even agree whether a rate cut or a rate hike will slow inflation?! Hapag-Lloyd Lifts Financial Outlook as Red Sea Crisis Boosts Freight Rates ( msn.com ) Nickel price surges as New Caledonia riots raise concerns over supply ( ft.com ) Copper hits record above $11,000 on bets that shortage looms ( yahoo.com ) 3 reasons why buying copper right now is the best trade one commodity expert has ever seen ( yahoo.com ) How battery cell formats will change the face of the EV industry – The Armchair Trader Daily Tech Roundup: EV Battery Startups Spearhead Race for Solid-State, TikTok Parent Seeks to Fast-Track Suit Against U.S. - Caixin Global Google Cloud accidentally deletes UniSuper’s online account due to ‘unprecedented misconfiguration’ | Superannuation | The Guardian Google Bard asked Bill Nye if AI can help avoid the end of the world ( cnbc.com ) Remarks by Chair Powell at the Georgetown University Law Center commencement ceremony - Federal Reserve Board China sanctions Boeing, two U.S. defense contractors for Taiwan arms sales | AP News Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Capitulates on Bearish View of US Stocks - Bloomberg Hummm JPMorgan’s Dimon defies Biden: ‘China is not a natural enemy’ | Fortune Bloomberg TV on X: "BlackRock Global CIO of Fixed Income, Rick Rieder, takes the contrarian position that the Fed will need to cut interest rates to tame inflation. Watch "Wall Street Week" tonight at 6pm ET https://t.co/QWhXHOgID0 https://t.co/LQsHi4poJO " / X The US stock market capitalization to #GDP ratio has reached an impressive 187%. The ratio has increased by ~40% in just 2 years but is still below the ~199% record from 2021. Nominally, the total US stock market cap is near its all-time high of $53 trillion. To put this into perspective, the global stock market cap to GDP ratio excluding the US is just 61%.Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is up 10% year to date and just 0.5% from its all-time record. The US market is/has been in a league of its own. At least 11 injured in overnight shooting in Savannah, police say ( yahoo.com ) Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi confirmed dead in helicopter crash after charred wreckage found | World News | Sky News Estonian Prime Minister Asserts NATO's Training of Ukrainian Soldiers Does Not Escalate Conflict ( msn.com ) The importance of distinguishing climate science from climate activism | npj Climate Action ( nature.com )

Bank of America’s May Global Fund Manager Survey shows fund managers’ average cash levels of 4.0% , down from 4.2% the previous month and representing a 3-year low.  Allocation to equities increased another 7ppt to net 41% overweight.  Bond allocation rose 7ppt to net -6% underweight, ''The soft-landing scenario is unfolding. .. we think a [ten-year yield] decline from 4.35% to the 3.25% area in the next 6-12 months is a good possibility — and likely non-consensus ..” Fed officials overall 'rates should stay high for longer', if/when the fact change, the FED will be quick to react though >> asymmetric FED! Saxo : U.S NatGas trades 16% up on the month Active signs have appeared following the measures introduced by cities across China, as data revealed by real estate organizations showed (intervening as things look very ugly-classic) Chinese cities will higher #home  inventory can purchase unsold home at reasonable prices to be used for affordable housing, said Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. China's factories fire up but consumer slump persists ECB's Schnabel calls for caution in rate cuts beyond June Bernanke/Blanchard: the inflation surge was primarily driven by a series of supply disruptions and increases in the relative price of energy and food. In stark difference to the 1970s , shocks did not trigger a wage price spiral and the inflationary effects were not persistent WELLS: “.. $TSLA  is likely no longer the biggest disruptive threat to autos. Chinese manufacturing has historically disrupted industries like steel & solar & signs point to autos being next.” EU under pressure after US levies tariffs on Chinese goods Brussels scrambles to avoid being dragged into trade war between Washington and Beijing FXcorner, GBPCHF quietly having a go at major resistance around 1.1500 area , CROSSJPY's having a push higher (soft JPN GDP this week), USD mixed and all within relatively small ranges still >>> weaker U.S macro though and market will be ''relatively quick to buy UST's and sell USDollars'' as we saw last couple of weeks US Interest Rates Should Stay High for Longer, Fed Officials Suggest - Bloomberg Fed’s Bostic Sees Improvement on Inflation But Housing Still a Concern ( investopedia.com ) Philipp Heimberger on X: "Bernanke/Blanchard: the inflation surge was primarily driven by a series of supply disruptions and increases in the relative price of energy and food. In stark difference to the 1970s, shocks did not trigger a wage price spiral and the inflationary effects were not persistent. https://t.co/THdOZXva1a " / X ECB's Schnabel calls for caution in rate cuts beyond June, Nikkei reports | Reuters Investors 'most bullish' on equities in almost 3 years: BofA Fund Manager Survey ( msn.com ) EU under pressure after US levies tariffs on Chinese goods The EUs own perception that they have little leverage is quite something "the Commission is struggling to protect domestic green technology industries from cheap Chinese competitors, with EU officials stressing that Brussels lacks the powers to compete with Washington and Beijing." Ole S Hansen on X: "US #natgas trades up 16% on the month to $2.5, the highest level since January. Supported by lower gas production and increased LNG flows to Freeport following a recent dip. Gas inventories rose 70bcf last week (EIA) vs a 5-yr avg. of 90 bcf. Total stocks at 2633 bcf reduced the https://t.co/wxHIrftz4a " / X Stimulus key to realty stability - Chinadaily.com.cn China Sells Record Sum of U.S. Debt Amid Signs of Diversification - Caixin Global China's factories fire up but consumer slump persists | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "10/10 If Beijing is determined to meet this year's 5% growth target, it will have to choose between a surge in debt directed at more domestic investment or fiscal transfers to boost consumption. There is as of yet little sign of the latter, but I think this will change soon." / X Putin And Xi Have Denied The Obvious With A Strange Take On Russia's Relationship With China ( msn.com ) Is the Gold price set to break new records this year? – The Armchair Trader Diese zehn Schweizer Bräuche stehen auf der Unesco-Liste für Weltkulturerbe - SWI swissinfo.ch

Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to work with counterpart Vladimir Putin to "rejuvenate" their countries as the pair started a day of talks in Beijing, saying China would "always be a good partner" of Russia, according to Chinese state media U.S CPI ever so slightly softer, yet still sticky inflation (and US services core inflation is still running hot at 6% annualized) retail sales were softer and that pushed UST yields lower, overnight OZ employment data was softer at 4.1% in April (exp 3.9%) and JPN GDP was weaker at -2% annualised for Q1 (exp -1.5%) >> markets pricing in 2 cuts by end of 2024 (up from 30bps at end of April) The US Inflation has now been above 3% for over 3 consecutive years, longest period of high inflation since the late 1980's AND US Conference Board Leading Economic Index -13.1% off its previous peak, not a great mix UBS upgrades European equities (excluding UK) in its regional quantitative framework ranking by two notches, placing it above US and Emerging Markets (EM).  The pecking order is now Japan, UK, Europe, EM, and US Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has voiced open frustration at the government’s failure to address the question of a post-war plan for Gaza A U.S. judge on Wednesday rejected Tesla's bid to dismiss a lawsuit accusing Elon Musk's electric car company of misleading owners into believing that their vehicles could soon have self-driving capabilities Chinese property stocks up nearly 10% again, 3rd double-digit daily gains, after the news the other day "China is not just exporting too much stuff; it’s also exporting its economic problems. Xi intends to maintain Chinese jobs and factories at the expense of other countries’ workers and companies, to avoid ... potentially disruptive reform at home" /Atlantic GOLD outperformed miners for over 3years, last 3months are different, miners back US financial conditions are now the easiest since 2021 = risk rally Secretary Blinken in Kyiv: "We're bringing Ukraine closer to — and then into — NATO. We'll make sure that Ukraine's bridge to NATO is strong and well-lit Holland has a government - finally T rump and Biden agree to debate on June 27 - that'll be fun BMO: “.. it has become clear to us that we underestimated the strength of the market momentum .. As such, we are increasing our 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,600, which currently represents the highest forecast based on the latest Bloomberg strategist survey. .. the market is behaving in a similar fashion to 2021 and 2023 – years where we did not give enough credit to the strength of market momentum, something we are trying to avoid this time around.” [Belski.] China Has Gotten the Trade War It Deserves - The Atlantic China Property Stocks Gauge Jumps on Proposal for Home Purchases - Caixin Global China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification - Bloomberg as GOLD share of reserves rise to highest since 2015 Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike plans | Reuters Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.1 per cent ( msn.com ) Gold purchases increase by 47% in Belgium ( brusselstimes.com ) Israel's defence minister attacks Netanyahu over Gaza future - BBC News A Free, Prosperous, and Secure Future for Ukraine - United States Department of State Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 41 over past day ( kyivindependent.com ) Vladimir Putin strengthens friendship with Xi Jinping on state visit to China ( msn.com ) China-Russia: an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world ( yahoo.com ) New Dutch Government to Crack Down on Migration, Green Measures ( yahoo.com ) Dell to penalize hybrid employees who don't work in the office enough ( qz.com ) Schumer’s AI Plan Urges Billions in Spending to Challenge China ( yahoo.com ) Tesla must face vehicle owners' lawsuit over self-driving claims ( msn.com ) Are UK markets ready to bounce back? UBS says yes ( msn.com ) Sir Keir Starmer to launch Labour’s key election doorstep offer to voters ( msn.com ) UBS-Entlassungsrunde gestartet: Ü50 und Risk betroffen – Inside Paradeplatz #HSI picture perfect - Jan trade

Jerome Powell might be getting a little worried that the battle will go on much longer than expected....so let's hear about that CPI shortly ! >>> notable weakness in U.S macro data last couple of weeks, pushed rate cut expectations back to 2+ before year-end and USDollar clearly under the cosh since (peak rates = peak USD ...quite how far it would go is ZE question though vs other fiat currencies, would tend to think #AUD could have a run eventually with metals-commods and China on the 'mend' and GBP why not - most hated currency in the world, other than JPY !) Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said monetary policy is in a good place, adding that the central bank shouldn’t be in a hurry to cut interest rates. Macron said he would be open to seeing a major French bank being taken over by a European Union rival in order to spur the deeper financial integration he sees as critical for the bloc’s future prosperity Enovix Begins Customer Sampling of EX-1M Batteries Biden quadruples tariffs on China EVs and targets chip imports as a trade war intensifies. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said Biden won't allow a second wave of the “China shock” of the early 2000s U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April The Biden administration is encouraging Arab states to participate in a peacekeeping force that would deploy in Gaza once the war ends China is considering a proposal to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes Turkish authorities said Tuesday they arrested 544 people suspected of links to preacher Fethullah Gulen, whom President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses of being behind an attempted coup in 2016 BofA: Electricity inflation is the highest in 40 years, just as data center & AI demand surge Euro Area April Wages Rise 3.02% Y/y (down from 3.35% YoY in March): Indeed Hiring Lab - Bloomberg Fed’s Powell is unfazed by the latest hot inflation reading ( msn.com ) Mester Says Fed Can Hold Rates Steady, Not In a Hurry to Cut ( yahoo.com ) Fed's Schmid says he is prepared to be patient on policy ( msn.com ) The Fed Tacitly Takes the UBS View on Stricter Capital ( finews.asia ) Overdue Bills Are Rising With US Debt Delinquencies, Fed Survey Shows - Bloomberg Traders Are Ready for Dollar to Drop After US Inflation Data - Bloomberg US encouraging Arab states to join multinational postwar force in Gaza ( ft.com ) Euro Zone wage concerns keep ECB cautious on rate cuts | Luxembourg Times ( luxtimes.lu ) China Considers Government Buying of Unsold Homes to Save Property Market ( yahoo.com ) Biden accuses China of ‘cheating’ on trade, imposes new tariffs - Carbon Brief Interest rates and RRR may see cuts - People's Daily Online Biden slaps 100% tariffs on China EVs as trade war ratchets up ( qz.com ) Copper: at the centre of the metal supercycle​ - The Oregon Group - Investment Insights Copper up over 30% in six months, approaching five year high – The Armchair Trader Ole S Hansen on X: "#Copper is repeating what gold did back in March and April: racing higher without looking back. Apart from continued momentum, strengthened by the latest breakout, prices are also being supported by short covering. In the past two COT reporting weeks to 7 May, speculators looking… https://t.co/D533M27Dqi " / X ( twitter.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "Saxo's "2024: Year of the metals" theme, highlighted in our Q1 Outlook continues to gather momentum with our preferred metals of gold, silver, copper and now also platinum continuing higher. Copper's latest surge resembling a short-covering squeeze while platinum has finally https://t.co/OdoO3rNUmY " / X ( twitter.com ) PLAT #XPT Google I/O 2024 in 5 minutes ( youtube.com ) Macron Puts French Banks in Play With Plan to Transform Europe ( msn.com ) Google's new Gemini AI can remember your license plate number ( qz.com ) Exclusive: U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April | Reuters Turkey arrests more than 500 over suspected ties to Erdogan foe ( msn.com ) UK real wages grow without change in productivity ( proactiveinvestors.com ) Not a great combo ! Vodafone returns to growth after cost cuts, as Three merger talks continue ( msn.com ) Enovix Begins Customer Sampling of EX-1M Batteries ( yahoo.com ) The 'Big 4' Short Position in Silver Rises Again | SilverSeek

U.S PPI today, U.S CPI and retail sales tomorrow + Fed speakers and more A lack of available space on container ships, mainly due to the big detour taken by shipping companies round the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the unstable situation in the Red Sea, is causing delays for many Chinese exporters. And as a result, shipping rates from Asia are spiralling #Maersk #HLAG #Costco JPN 10y JGB yield shitting 95bp, 30y 3.05%, lifting all long-ends , so net net JPY weaker still, piecemeal deal not working.. Bloomberg: "Biden’s plan to hit China with more tariffs is mostly symbolic" /THREAD China begins selling long-term bonds to stimulate economy, first tranche out this Friday, should continue to support #SHCOMP #HSI China creates its largest ever quantum computing chip Yellen to Xi : You buy my UST's and I'll put in a good word to Biden about those tariffs..China then telling Asians to stop buying NVDA chips and buy theirs (different quality mind..), definitely a few things going on behind the scenes.. Negara doesn't want to use rates to prop up currency.. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he finds the lack of inflation progress last quarter concerning and favors keeping rates steady until there are further signs that the metric will return to the central bank’s 2% target To put things into perspective. All US stocks are now worth 187% of US GDP, and the rest of the world's equities are worth only 61% of World GDP ex-US. Is this difference in valuation justified? (Charts via Goldman) 0DTE options now account for ~50% of options volume in the entire S&P 500 . >>> ie, short-term-daily 'views & positioning' can change Very quickly U.S new home median sales price falls to lowest since June 2021 (400K) UK Payrolls -85,000, unemployment up to 4.3% >>> rate cut exp to shift again?, just by the book, Pill out already "Not unreasonable to believe that over summer we will see enough confidence to consider rate cuts." JPMORGAN: “.. earnings season is just about done .. growth came in better than consensus expected, at +5% y/y ..” But “excluding Mag-7, S&P 500 EPS growth is -2% y/y, the 5th consecutive quarter of negative growth .. Meanwhile, the percent of companies guiding higher rose vs last quarter, and those guiding lower dropped dramatically. We dont take comfort on the improved guidance, as the optimism on earnings has gotten ahead of the economic momentum.” [Kolanovic] Fed’s Jefferson calls for holding rates steady until inflation cools further ( msn.com ) Yellen says Chinese response possible on expected US tariff action ( msn.com ) You buy my UST's and I'll put in a good word to Biden about those tariffs.. Yellen been passing the message in Asia...Japan would appear to be 'letting' rates, JGB yields move higher (it needs a good move to help JPY) but in : Malaysia won't use monetary policy as tool to prop up ringgit ( cnbc.com ) China begins selling long-term bonds to stimulate economy | MENAFN.COM Beating US Sanctions, Chinese Scientists Achieve Mass Production Of Optical Chips At Low Cost ( msn.com ) China’s Exports Are Held Up Due to Tight Shipping Capacity; Sea Freight Rates Surge ( yicaiglobal.com ) China creates its largest ever quantum chip — and it could be key to building the nation's own 'quantum cloud' | Live Science Doubts Over Intervention After Yellen Spurs Weak Yen Bets ( yahoo.com ) Yellen pretty much told MOF to hand over USDJPY interventions to BoJ, and concentrate on slowly rising rates... no surprise BoJ cut bon buying, rates reacting #JGB 30y yields above 2%, JPY doing little, it's one or the other! It's the currency or the bonds, got to make a choice, can't have it both ways, China same/similar https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=XNoJGID-DkkrsNE7&v=8V9ypoULc0I&feature=youtu.be '''I Delivered Food To Find Out…Can These Apps Survive?''' #doordash #uebereats #grubhub Protesters attempt to storm Tesla’s factory in Germany | CNN Business '' As many as 800 activists gathered outside Tesla’s factory near Berlin Friday to protest its expansion plans, and some of them clashed with police as they attempted to break into the plant'' MacroMicro on X: "🚢Shipping Prices Soar📈: Is Another Supply Chain Crisis Looming? 🧵 A thread 1️⃣As of 5/10, the SCFI has surged past 2,300 points, marking a new high since September 2022, with a weekly increase of approximately 18.8%. https://t.co/ZDMdbTVSjs " / X ( twitter.com ) UK jobs market cooling as unemployment rises, but wages still strong – business live ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 FT: "China is planning to turn a tropical island province roughly the size of Belgium into the world’s largest duty-free shopping zone, as it tries to persuade shoppers to buy their luxury goods at home and stimulate a lagging domestic economy." https://t.co/GWxzSaH7Lu " / X ( twitter.com ) UBS and the End of the Honeymoon ( finews.asia ) Microsoft, Amazon, Pfizer and others invest $16 billion in France ( qz.com ) #copper

Week ahead : April PPI and Powell speech (Tuesday), April CPI and retail sales (Wed), Phily Fed Thursday and yes, no less than 12 Fed speakers this week.. US & China trade relations in check, UK GDP was stronger than expected last week, excess savings fro Covid times all but dried out now in the U.S (Walmart earnings for a good sample of where we stan don this) The likes of GS sees April headline CPI +0.37% m/m, core +0.28% +3.42% YoY, +3.61% YoY And they are quite bearish Retail Sales Data center power demand is set to more than double from 2023 levels by 2028 , which (confirms) adds to the bullish thesis for copper, utilities, and of course all of the components that go into data centers as they scale up BoJ announces smaller JGB purchase operation for the first time since ending YCC China fires starting gun on $140bn debt sale to boost economy. PBoC and finance ministry firms up plans for long-dated bonds to support investment Russia finds huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory FT - Can Europe’s economy ever hope to rival the US again? Trump’s Plans for the Fed Would Revive 1970s-Style Inflation Japan's 30-year government bond yield rises to 2.03%, the highest since 2011 Hang Seng Index just topped 19,000 again. Rally +27% from the low. And even after that gain, index still trading below 10x earnings #HSI Clients of a Scottish law firm that went bust, leaving tens of thousands of families in legal limbo, fear they are at the centre of “the next Post Office” scandal Mount Everest saw two record-breaking climbs on Sunday with a Nepali sherpa making the most ever summits and a British climber setting the record for a foreigner Blinken says US has not seen Israeli plans to protect civilians, post-war plans for Gaza Gold as a strategic asset Today’s longest turbine blades have become too big to be delivered to inland wind farms. They can be taken only by ship to offshore sites, where building costs are far higher Von der Leyen struggling for majority in European Parliament Inflation and consumer spending updates ahead: What to know this week ( yahoo.com ) How Walmart became America’s largest grocer ( cnbc.com ) Collins becomes latest Fed official to warn rates will likely stay higher for longer ( yahoo.com ) Can Europe’s economy ever hope to rival the US again? ( ft.com ) A reminder that once you strip out population and dollar strength (which doesn't impact living standards in Europe), countries in the EU are converging with the US, not falling behind Americans are feeling worse about the US economy amid inflation concerns ( yahoo.com ) Antony Blinken says US has not seen Israeli plans to protect civilians, post-war plans for Gaza ( thehill.com ) Trump’s Plans for the Fed Would Revive 1970s-Style Inflation by Maurice Obstfeld - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org ) China fires starting gun on $140bn debt sale to boost economy ( ft.com ) The case for a strategic allocation to gold | World Gold Council What makes gold a strategic asset? Gold has a key role as a strategic long-term investment and as a mainstay allocation in a well-diversified portfolio. Investors have been able to recognise much of gold’s value over time by maintaining a long-term allocation and taking advantage of its safe-haven status during periods of economic uncertainty. China is buying gold like there's no tomorrow, jacking up prices - Times of India ( indiatimes.com ) Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Let's see... US car companies sold millions of cars in China in 2023 (2.1mn cars for GM https://t.co/AioSsphawj , over 600k cars for Tesla https://t.co/CEhuT6ZRs7 , over 400k cars for Ford https://t.co/zgIXhzIPey , etc.) but there "are currently no Chinese-branded passenger vehicles…" / X ( twitter.com ) makes you wonder! Joe Biden will double, triple and quadruple tariffs on some Chinese goods, with EV duties jumping to 102.5% from 27.5% | Fortune Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 on X: "Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 13 May 2024. Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/1NsPGy2eF6 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 https://t.co/H2eizk3lwS " / X ( twitter.com ) Georgia: Tense standoff on streets of Tbilisi as protesters try to block MPs from entering parliament | World News | Sky News Amazon to invest $1.3 billion in France, create 3,000 jobs ( msn.com ) Law firm’s collapse ‘is the next Post Office Scandal’ ( thetimes.co.uk ) ...don't put your home in a trust...to avoid inheritance tax, they often don't work..and leave you in a mess FOUR Tory MPs face Angela Rayner-style probes into tax affairs ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Surely not! Clinton adviser says Biden campaign ‘doing it all wrong’ | The Hill Von der Leyen struggling for majority in European Parliament - Brussels Signal Wind turbines keep getting bigger ( economist.com ) Mount Everest: Record summits made by Nepali and British climbers - BBC News Anything related to #URA has not even began (LONG.term), 2011 levels were pre Hiroshima

U.S claims slightly softer, yields and USDollar soften a little, vols lower, 30's UST auctions flies by and rates get another nudge lower, U.S equities close on the highs >>> bottom line the number of U.S numbers are starting to weaken/roll over, fwd indicators had a hint recently (NFP, credit, consumer confidence and both sides of the PMI's)... all this with an asymmetric FED, so things can change quickly MS on next week’s #CPI  print: “The Descent Begins, “. . We forecast core CPI inflation fell to 0.29%M in April (0.3%M cons, 3.6%Y annual rate). Core goods remain in negative territory, and services come in lower with softer car insurance inflation.” Janet Yellen will soon be telling all that there is no issue for U.S Treasuries, she has been flying to China and Japan a lot recently.. Copper, Gold, metals loving it all (Rate peak-USD peak, whether USD weakens is another story, BoJ needs to play a part in this) BoE opened to a summer cut , 7-2 vote, inflation news are encouraging, A forecast and recession beating GDP figure of 0.6% today showed the UK’s strongest expansion in over two years , not bad after all !... GBP holding up well too, as markets sees FED cut coming S&P 500 stock buybacks are projected to hit a record $1.075 trillion in 2025 , a 16% increase from this year's total #HSI Hong Kong stocks rise to 8-month highs after China property relief, high dividend-yielding stocks in focus Battery prices in China are ''crashing'' (good news for consumers, starting to change the game, not such good news for EV makers though) BP wants to buy Tesla's EV charging infrastructure; as the latter struggles, the former sits on a cash reserve thanks to several years of high oil prices DB : Germany, looks like things are picking up in the German industry, especially energy-intensive industries make up lost ground Ikea CEO says sales are the slowest they've ever seen BofA Fund Manager Survey - Investors' exposure to China remains extremely low ... Hong Kong stocks rise to 8-month highs after China property relief, high dividend-yielding stocks in focus ( msn.com ) US weekly jobless claims rise to highest level since August of 2023 ( msn.com ) Bank of England keeps interest rates at 5.25% but hints at a June cut | Interest rates | The Guardian FTSE 100 Live 10 May: UK exits recession as GDP grows faster than thought, index at another record ( yahoo.com ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from Germany! Looks like things are picking up in the German industry, especially energy-intensive industries make up lost ground. DB just updated their prediction for manufacturing production in 2024. It's not as bad as they thought before, now expecting a decrease… https://t.co/9n2ZwDvFAr " / X ( twitter.com ) Gaza war: Netanyahu vows to defeat Hamas in Rafah despite US arms threat - BBC News Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 "President Joe Biden’s administration is poised to unveil a sweeping decision on China tariffs that target key strategic sectors. The new tariffs will focus on industries including electric vehicles, batteries and solar cells, with existing levies largely being maintained."…" / X ( twitter.com ) UBS Sheds Over a Thousand Jobs ( finews.asia ) Copper Above $10,000 as Supply Worries Counter Faltering Demand - Bloomberg Gold, silver price on May 9: Precious metal prices stays weak in last session ( msn.com ) BP Keen to Buy Tesla Supercharging Sites for US Expansion - Bloomberg Guest post: Solar plus batteries ‘cheaper than new coal’ for meeting China’s rising demand - Carbon Brief Balancing the books: Ford prepares to limit UK sales of petrol cars to meet EV targets ( parkers.co.uk ) South Korea considering £59k incentive for each child born amid declining birth rate | The Independent

Riksbank leads the charge, makes first rate cut since 2016, expects two more in 2024 "The SNB does not have the right policy as a lender of last resort" . Paul Tucker believes that the SNB needs to strengthen and expand its role as lender of last resort to avoid another Credit Suisse case. However, he fears that not all lessons have been learned. AstraZeneca withdrawing Covid vaccine worldwide. Company says decision is purely commercial as jab has been superseded by alternatives German IP down 0.4% in March, and Feb adjusted lower as usual, IP is about 12% lower than 6years ago now >>> DAX hits ATH's U.S stock buybacks hit highest level since 2018 Japan has described as "regrettable" U.S. President Joe Biden's comment that "xenophobia" is stifling the Asian nation's economic growth, the top government spokesperson said on Tuesday BOJ will scrutinise weak yen in guiding monetary policy, says Governor Ueda, talk talk is not enough, you need to hike rates to back up interventions - can't have it both ways Israel-Gaza war: Biden to halt some arms supplies if Israel invades Rafah Reports indicate the DOJ and SEC are investigating $TSLA 's self-driving claims & driver assistance systems for potential wire and securities fraud China’s industry regulator Wednesday published draft rules for the lithium battery secto r, an attempt to rein in freewheeling expansion and address overcapacity concerns Regulators are reportedly investigating Tesla’s self-driving claims, including whether it committed securities fraud or wire fraud during that criminal investigation Every EU country has seen its exports to Central Asia boom since Russia's invasion of Ukraine... China is reportedly considering abolishing the dividend tax for mainland investors who invest in Hong Kong stocks to avoid double taxation and improve liquidity in the HK market. #HONGKONG #Januarycontrariantrade now the market will start to pile in again, remember how 'they' all said China was uninvestable Source: Bloomberg #HSI BOJ will scrutinise weak yen in guiding monetary policy, says Governor Ueda | Reuters USD/JPY: Yen Weakness Poises Risk of a New Currency War in Asia - Bloomberg Bank of England expected to leave interest rates on hold today – business live ( msn.com ) Sweden's Riksbank makes first rate cut since 2016, expects two more in 2024 | Reuters Milei’s Argentina is fast becoming the Texas of Latin America ( yahoo.com ) The US Geological Survey estimates that the region holds the world’s second biggest reserves of shale gas, and fourth biggest reserves of shale oil jeroen blokland on X: "Bill Gross's latest blog - 'They Just Wanna Sell You a Bond Fund. - is epic! @real_billgross no longer believes in the 'total return' concept for #bonds, which have not provided any return over the last five years. Taking #inflation into account, they have declined by over 4%… https://t.co/lhQF54aGzW " / X ( twitter.com ) 'Bond King' Bill Gross says the 'total return' strategy he pioneered is dead — the logic behind his thinking ( yahoo.com ) This brokerage believes silver may outperform gold in long-term ( cnbctv18.com ) Israel-Gaza war: Biden to halt some arms supplies if Israel invades Rafah ( bbc.com ) Industrial production in Germany decreases 0.4 percent in March | MENAFN.COM Stock buybacks hit highest level since 2018 ( yahoo.com ) Japan tells US that Biden's 'xenophobia' comment is regrettable ( msn.com ) AstraZeneca withdrawing Covid vaccine, months after admitting rare side effect ( telegraph.co.uk ) Why Tesla Investigators Could Be Eyeing Securities and Wire Fraud | Inc.com China Moves to Rein in Battery Boom Amid Overcapacity Concerns - Caixin Global It's coming everywhere Next government will be forced to raise taxes for public services, experts warn ( msn.com ) If UBS is in crisis, 'SNB doesn't have the right policy' | Agefi.com 'Trader justice': Ex-SocGen trader fired for risky bets claims he was made a 'scapegoat' ( msn.com ) always someone else's fault - innit ! UBS Sheds Over a Thousand Jobs ( finews.asia )