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JPY slides about 2% as the BoJ maintains the YCC at this meeting with 9-0 votes >>> Kuroda expects core CPI around 3% now and falling to 2% on next fiscal year, and Bank of Japan’s balance sheet assets to GDP now at record levels, approaching 140%, BUT overall language : pretty flexible, and eventually they will 'have' to move anyway, so beware Kuroda (who's is leading in April..) : YCC is fully sustainable ECB 'sources' yesterday afternoon, suggested they started to think about slower pace of hikes in Feb >>> bund yields dropped 10bps on this, U.S yields lower on very weak U.S empire (lowest since Mai 2020)...and this morning : ECB’s Villeroy: Lagarde's 50-Bps Guidance Is Still Valid, “I was quite surprised” by the story published by Bloomberg that the pace of tightening may slow down - BBG German's Habeck confirming in Davos that Leopards going to UKR, they will build a 3rd LNG Terminal (this is big news again) and basically that they make do without Russian energy, and Germany wants inflation back down to 5% by year-end OPEC+ will do whatever it takes to keep the oil market stable - OPEC sec gen Short-term sentiment data these days.....Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Jan: 16.7 (prev -23.6) and take ..NY Empire Fed manufacturing -32.9 after -9 consensus, then exact opposite with..The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged in January, with business activity in New York state recording the fifth worst reading in the survey’s history HSBC: China’s reopening is “unlikely to prevent global downturn in early 2023.” Inflation is likely to be too high to warrant US rate cuts. “We believe the USD's correction lower has room to run (joining those changing their view this week..), core bond yields will fall, and credit markets and EM have value.” Saudi Arabia is open to discussions about trade in currencies other than the US dollar, according to the kingdom’s finance minister British wine named one of the 'best in the world' in blind taste test! Trafigura plans to take large amounts of LME copper #MSFT which employs more than 220,000 people, including 6,000 in the UK, is said to be contemplating cutting roughly 5% of its workforce, which if accurate would equate to approximately 11,000 jobs. UK Finance Minister Hunt on inflation data: ''We need to stick to our plan to bring inflation down'' >>> UK inflation dips only marginally from 10.7% in November to 10.5% in December Markets : -BofA: Investors Most Underweight on US Stocks Since 2005 Home / Twitter - chart >>> pretty interesting as we sit at 4K SPX500 level, the make or break levels -Bonds higher, weak USdata, ECB chatters yesterday and BoJ overnight wiht 10y JGB's trading back down towards 40bps -USDJPY higher, bringing CROSSJPY's higher with it overnight. USDollar overall softer -SPX500, are you in the break up or break down camp ahead of 4K ?... that IS the only question from here on. Much more going on underneath though, sectors, China, commodities, quality names and so on. For choice, the longer VIX remain soft, the more chance we have to 'grind higher'.. -Crude steady to slightly higher, lots of chatters SPR demand below + China re-opening, #XAGUSD chart below - interesting levels (another make or break..) Jim Grant: «Japan is Perhaps the Most Important Risk» (themarket.ch) What the Debt Ceiling Is and Why It Matters | Time Jeremy Hunt ‘planning a slimmed-down spring budget with no tax cuts’ | Conservatives | The Guardian Trafigura plans to take large amounts of LME copper -sources | Euronews Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "The Empire State Manufacturing Survey plunged in January, with business activity in New York state recording the fifth worst reading in the survey’s history. https://t.co/BgzcTJpx7D" / Twitter "Bear markets are like a Hall of Mirrors, designed to confuse investors and take their money. Trust YOUR fundamental/valuation process (we do).. For us, margins/earnings are likely to significantly disappoint whether there is a recession, or not" Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson German economy minister wants inflation under 5% by end of year - Welt TV (yahoo.com) Tesla’s Brand Is Tanking, Survey Finds (forbes.com) Tech bosses could face jail after Tory MPs revolt on bill - BBC News Tech bosses could face jail time for failing to protect children online, after the government conceded to a backbench rebellion Army of pest-munching ducks keep South African vineyard blooming - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Great pics and what a great way of getting on without pesticides How Does the Panama Canal Work? - Bing video that's a brilliant video and this one https://twitter.com/i/status/1615024820193841153 Ukraine: Military hardware donations weaken Army - UK chief - BBC News Russia needs opportunity to rejoin an international system, Kissinger says (cnbc.com) British sauvignon blanc wine from Gloucestershire vineyard named one of the 'best in the world' | UK News | Sky News That's something to celebrate folks !! Shopper Rebellion Against Higher Prices Helps Slow Inflation - WSJ Silver #XAGUSD

Major investment banks....already revising their USD forecasts lower, EURUSD to 1.15 byend of 2023, IF they do this they will soon revise their #SPX00 forecasts higher too !!...this is clearly the potential implication.. Who is Lee Koguan, the Elon fanboy and one of Tesla's largest shareholders who now says Musk has 'abandoned' the EV maker. Fully Electric Vehicles made up almost 10% of all new cars sold globally in 2022 - WSJ Frau Lambrecht resigned as German Defense Minister Morgan Stanley says European stocks san extend lead over the US, optimism on China, earnings supports Europe’s outperformance. Secker also sees boost from light positioning, sector trends Hildebrand, fast path down for inflation in 2023 from 9 to 4%, 2% won't happen for long while, no more QE, new world and does not see rate cut this year (agreed, this what we have been talking about for a while, as the most likely scenario, and the 200bps of rate cuts priced in by Dec 2024, seems rather big at this stage!) WEF's annual meeting began with corporate executives and economists warning of a worldwide recession this year. A PricewaterhouseCoopers survey found 73% of 4,410 business leaders predicted global growth will decline over the coming 12 months, the worst since the poll began in 2011...>>> ie the most anticipated recession , ever UK wages rising at near record pace, clear labour shortage >> hard to se BoE hike only 25bps at next meeting with these kind of data, which would put both ECB and BoE going 50bps, while FED is 'only' going 25bps China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years. Mainland China’s overall population fell to 1.4118 billion last year, as the growth rate hit negative 0.6 per thousand people Markets are passed the "peak Fed hawkishness" and "peak inflation." But an "earnings peak" has yet to be fully digested/thread-chart BoJ's real goal, ideally, is to get our of YCC, which started in December (earlier than many thought in markets), now Kuroda on his way in April, they will continue to adjust rates, but what they are desperately trying to do is getting out of YCC (say 2%) without JPY strengthening massively..clearly a tough ask! Markets : UST's net speculative still heavily short and near multi-year lows USDJPY (chart below) overnight implied vols over 30%, which means a 1day straddle costs 320 JPY pips! the market is expecting some volatility!.. low delta trading near 40-50% implied.. >>> so we could trade between 125 and 132 USDJPY ! strap yourselves in, Kuroda this afternoon - please don't ask what I think (ok some of you asking.....IMHO, the market has anticipated and priced in a lot from BoJ already last couple of weeks... Equity markets : we all know about technical levels in SPX500, VIX (eq implied vols) remain soft, and a slightly softer USDdollar overall will help risk going forward, but it's January and Jan markets are always/often subject to sharp turnaround Bank of Japan in a corner, can’t avoid volatility | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and good charts in there https://s354.podbean.com/pb/ed46b2a35ce243daddfd080c32cd51cb/63c661c2/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2023_01_17_SaxoMarketCall.pdf?pbss=d1eb9cf4-6d4d-5888-bd76-aaf433be562a Global_Macro on Twitter: "Markets are passed the "peak Fed hawkishness" and "peak inflation." But an "earnings peak" has yet to be fully digested https://t.co/KC3gj18q34" / Twitter baufinanciaphaster UNVERiFlED on Twitter: "For those thinking about the BOJ policy meeting tomorrow. A little depth will be worthwhile. Everyone knows Kuroda-san is on his way out. His term ends 8 April. USUALLY, the govt releases its "nomination" in February and then the candidate goes in front of the Diet for" / Twitter recap on 3 possible Kuroda replacements.. EUR/USD 2023 forecast, as per forex strategists (msn.com) UK wages rising at near record pace - live updates (msn.com) Rishi Sunak blocks Scotland's gender recognition bill (telegraph.co.uk) Corona-Indiskretionen - Bundesrat in der Bredouille: Kann Berset dem Druck standhalten? - News - SRF Berset not so popular.. Who Is Leo KoGuan, the Tesla Shareholder Crusading Against Elon Musk? (businessinsider.com) German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigns amid Ukraine war backlash (cnbc.com) Nein, Frau Lambrecht, die Medien sind nicht schuld http://to.welt.de/DsZiYXi Matteo Messina Denaro: Italy's most wanted mafia boss arrested in Sicily, police say | ITV News China population: 2022 marks first decline in 60 years | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) USDJPY - it has already moved decently - in fact it has corrected 50% of the move since March 2020

The BoJ meeting is the biggest macro event this week/month.. JGB's could have a proper tantrum like in 2013 and hit 1% yields in the 10y area. BoJ spent about -75bn$ in last 2-34 sessions buying JGB's, JPY has recovered about half of what was lost since March 2020 (USDJPY has done a lot of damage already though...YCC change is coming ! only question is when.!) - Japan December PPI +0.5% m/m (expected +0.3%) and +10.2% y/y (expected +9.5%) The University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved by 4.9pp to 64.6 in early January from 59.7 in December EV price war shaping up in 2023 - if you wanted an EV car, you might want to wait a bit UK/EU...There are growing indications that the EU and UK could, later today, set out an agreed framework on resolving the most contentious issues around the Northern Ireland Protocol; diplomats have stressed that there is still an enormous amount of technical work to be done before an overall agreement is reached JPMorgan Chase on Thursday shut down the website for a college financial aid platform it bought for $175 million after alleging the company’s founder created nearly 4 million fake customer accounts Fitch: ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point To Higher Terminal Rate With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become/Thread and by pretty much ANY survey, it is the most anticipated recession in history.. FED's net interest costs increased to $102.4bn in 2022, up from just $5.7bn in 2021 U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress Bitcoin has jumped out of January’s starting gates with a climb of more than 25% BRL : largest real rates levels across the globe - see Thread below Markets are pricing 200bps of cuts from Fed by the end of 2024 >>> basically that would be same levels as ECB - this looks nuts !!? and because of this, markets have embraced '#Goldilocks,' with investors assuming that a soft landing means positive #earnings growth Markets : VIX had the lowest weekly close in over a year USDJPY has done a lot of work already ahead of BoJ, dragging all USD pairs lower, beware a little from here on USD shorts, in fact TP on some or most, reassess on Wed/Thursday HSI now looks better on a 12-month perf chart than the S&P500 - pretty wild - was so oversold in Sep/Oct, when USD peaked too, inflation peaked etc SPX is closing in on big levels. Zoom in and you see the 200 day moving average as well as the negative trend line. The entire 4000-4080 area is basically a big resistance area / see below chart https://s358.podbean.com/pb/c2e85002c24556fe7dfa0bfa8af3dffe/63c50a7d/data1/fs56/5709963/uploads/2023_01_16_SaxoMarketCall.pdf?pbss=a78d3df9-17fb-5fcf-862a-b2ccf69bb951 SPX500 chart and more there Market bracing for BoJ impact Wednesday | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Column: Oil prices expected to average around $90 in 2023-2027 | Reuters BOJ's record-breaking $78bn bond buying fails to halt rising yields - Nikkei Asia Weston Nakamura on Twitter: "🇯🇵BOJ↑ add’l JGB buys +¥1.4tn, targeting belly of JGB curve +¥100b 1-3Y +¥500b 3- 5Y +¥500b 5-10Y +¥300b 10-25Y Obv any specific amt = not enough, as even “unlimited” isn’t enough JGB 10Y >50bp YCC cap (again) USDJPY↓ mid 127 ¥futures↑ near 79 BOJ likely back in later today https://t.co/8n8HcGfwrU" / Twitter this guy btw is good to follow for BoJ stuff.. Home / Twitter nice recap 'Global Central Bank Update'' --South Korea hiked rates for the 10th time, 25 bps increase to 3.50%. Brazil real CB rate +8%.. wild - great opportunity ? U.S. to hit debt limit Thursday, Yellen warns Congress (cnbc.com) Callum Thomas on Twitter: "2. With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become. Bull take: easy to surprise against (even if mediocre) Bear take: if confirmed = bad news. h/t @zerohedge $SPX $SPY $MACRO https://t.co/kOtYcazkdO" / Twitter Tom McTague on Twitter: "There’s lots of noise and fury. But the truth remains startling enough: the UK is building and operating an international trade border within its own country to ensure the integrity of the EU single market. Why? Because that was the price the Tory party agreed to pay for Brexit." / Twitter JPMorgan Chase shutters student financial aid website Frank (cnbc.com) Whatever happened to due diligence..? ECB Guidance, Core Inflation Point to Higher Terminal Rate (fitchratings.com) Support for leaving EU has fallen significantly across bloc since Brexit | European Union | The Guardian God damn lies (irrelevant whether one likes or dislike EU)... what happened to that Red Bus and 350mio a week stuff ? and the execution was simply horrific, in fact nothing much has actually got better ! Johnson had cousin act as ‘guarantor for an £800,000 credit facility’ while PM, reports | Evening Standard A spokesman for Boris Johnson said all the former Conservative leader’s finances ‘are and were properly declared’ Eisai files for approval of Alzheimer's drug in Japan | Reuters Have a great start to the week Team PVM GBPCHF - constructive - if ever those talks between EU/UK became good !

TOKYO (Reuters) -- The yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds rose on Friday above the Bank of Japan's new policy ceiling, reaching the highest in about eight years amid rising speculation the central bank could further tweak policy as soon as next week....they 've got a job on their hands !.. Fed members Harker, Bullard and Barkin spoke yesterday and their statements suggesting the FOMC will be at 25bp hike in February (markets pricing another in March and then cuts! about 200bps !! now priced in already for 2024.... “To be honest with you, I don’t quite know why markets are so optimistic about inflation,” said San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. “I think of them as priced for perfection" A short very good thread below on U.S CPI.... '''The 3m moving average of MoM core services ex-shelter CPI has dramatically slowed down, and it’s now in line with a 2.5-3.0% annualized core inflation. This matters a lot to Powell.'''' Europe’s debt market is enjoying its busiest week ever, with borrowers issuing €99 billion ($107 billion) in just four days as they seize on a start-of-year rally to bring deals early/BBG Timiraos : Core inflation ran at a 3.14% annualized rate in the October-to-December period, the lowest such reading in 15 months Pantheon : (yeps well said)...US inflation overshoot: Mostly margin expansion, a good dose of rents, plus a bit of wages and a bit of energy pass-through. All now reversing, with a long way to go. No further rate hikes are needed Germany built LNG terminals in months. Wind turbines still take years, this is we never got a NatGas crisis...no-one should underestimate how extraordinary impressive this is!!.. hence no energy crisis this winter.,, Bank of Korea raises interest rates 25bps, hints they will now be steady, no more Tech Hub Shenzhen Takes Steps to Support Industrial Sector, Huawei-backed Aito cuts prices in China, following Tesla. PBoC Vice Governor: Monetary Policy Will Be Appropriate, No ‘Flood-Like’ Stimulus -Will Take More Measures To Boost Market Confidence. Morgan Stanley said its wealth clients are “extremely bullish” on China’s economy as the mainland reopens its borders Total freight costs fall year over year in December for first time in 28 months Negotiations between the EU and its G7 allies to set a price cap for Russia's exports of refined oil products are about to get serious, but it looks like this will be an even more difficult task than the earlier move to cap prices for Russian crude exports WEF starts soon - a reminder : Private jet emissions quadrupled during Davos 2022 Inflation is softer, as expected, half the battle won, having said all this it is still +6%, clearly still a worry and investors should beware, it will remain stick, the harsh reality with many companies cutting cost and staff is now the story of early 2023 Markets : CBOE Index VIX closed below 19, lowest level since April 2022 -Earnings season starts in the U.S, big banks today, SPX500 4K reistance (all those calls bought few days ago >> plenty of gamma o sell into!!), for eventually 4100 area Silly bankrupt stocks BBY (up 2x this year) and others up, BTC up, battered stocks recovering fast (short-covering etc, early Jan action), IMHO inflation will remain sticky, and rates therefore (given what's priced in already for 2023-24 in particular , MUST be considered...) USDollar tumbled, particularly vs JPY (BoJ meeting next week >>> eventually they will haave to move YCC again and/or let JPY strengthen!.. CHF decent move, and yes CHFJPY lower the trade (better EZ credit and BoJ adjustment) Crude slightly higher Commodities recover on the back of China re-opening, and this is a risk, if prices are driven higher again, FED and Co won't be able to cut in months ahead.. Gold, metals well supported, though already moved ahead of U.S CPI (market expectations were correct overall), copper/IronOre all about China re-opening, and eventually if the reopen goes well, would not be surprised to see crude back towards or above $100 JGB 10-year yield tops Bank of Japan's 0.5% ceiling - Nikkei Asia Alf on Twitter: "Very important CPI report for the Fed and markets. A short thread. 1/" / Twitter - excellent thread from Alf on the U.S CPI inside outs..! Germany built LNG terminals in months. Wind turbines still take years. (msn.com) EU Gears Up for Tough Talks on Products Cap | Energy Intelligence Total freight costs fall year over year in December for first time in 28 months - FreightWaves Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Core inflation ran at a 3.14% annualized rate in the October-to-December period, the lowest such reading in 15 months It was 4.55% on a six-month annualized basis, the lowest reading since May 2021 https://t.co/QBBj9vh62h" / Twitter Russia risks becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos | The Economist Russia risks becoming ungovernable and descending into chaos. There is growing opposition to President Putin at home Santos scoffs at Kinzinger’s call to resign: Go on CNN and ‘cry about it’ | The Hill Total fake..On Wednesday, Nassau County Republicans, including Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), asked Santos to resign following revelations that he fabricated portions of his résumé during his successful campaign to win election to the House. Nelson Peltz talks Disney proxy fight (cnbc.com) Vodafone plans hundreds of job cuts, the biggest round of layoffs in 5 years - Business & Economy News (wionews.com) so many companies reducing staff levels - checking the cost side of things Private jet emissions quadrupled during Davos 2022 | Airline emissions | The Guardian Let them preach to us what we should be doing with our heating.. WEF 2023: The Davos predictions that did not work out (cnbc.com) Russia's Putin lays into minister Manturov for 'fooling around' - BBC News Tesla cuts prices in U.S. and Europe to stoke sales (cnbc.com) Sadiq Khan: Time to end 'vow of silence' on Brexit business hit - and his plan to fix it (cityam.com) “Brexit has reduced Britain’s GDP by 5.5%, cut investment by 11% and slashed goods & services trade by 7% — Britons are also paying an extra £6 billion to eat because of Brexit” CHFJPY finally correcting (anything JPY really)

TOKYO :The BoJ will review the side-effects of its monetary easing at next week's policy meetings and may take additional steps to correct distortions in the yield curve, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Thursday Inflation crisis poses greatest near-term global threat, Davos survey warns >>> ok so we have definitely peaked on inflation now...in fact, US inflation may have dropped below zero in December MoM (thread below). If it did, would be first negative print since 2020, so lets see later on today now!..markets expect 6.5% and 5.7% core U.S CPI, above 6.6% and markets (Algo's) wont be happy (buy the dip probably, as trend is softer) U.S NatGas prices free fall - chart below December’s -14.9% YoY drop for used car prices per ⁦at the Manheim/US, this was the worst/biggest ever drop in the data Fed economists: Home price gains over the last 2 years could have produced a wealth effect for homeowners that drove one third of the increase in the CPI (non-shelter prices) >>> Fed's Collins (Boston), who has been relatively dovish, explicitly goes for 25bp rate hike at the February FOMC meeting. Daly and Bostic signalled another downshift but Collins more explicitly expressed her preference for 25bp by saying “ I’d lean at this stage to 25, but it’s very data-dependent...” Morgan Stanley is Bullish on Chinese Assets Now: “We believe the market is under-appreciating the far-reaching ramifications of reopening and the possibility that a robust cyclical recovery can occur despite lingering structural headwinds.", here they come now! SPX500 : Momentum has flipped bullish in the market as buyers stepped in at a crucial level Next big fight is the macro downtrend line, see thread below - confirmation or not this afternoon, but there are plenty of signs that many inflation data pointing lower, quite clearly, and beware, everyone has same tech levels on their screens >> ''mind the gap'' US companies spent over $1 trillion buying back their own shares last year as they shrugged off fears of a recession-fueled crash “California Deficits Roar Back as Stock Rout Hits Taxes” The stock market drives marginal US consumption, GDP, & tax receipts Why Can't Tesla Drive US Oil Demand Lower? Plastics...US consumption of fossil fuels is heading toward records even amid the electric-car boom A barrel of Brent oil could reach $110 by the third quarter if China and other Asian economies fully reopen from Covid restrictions, Goldman's Jeff Currie China outbound flight bookings at 15% of pre-pandemic levels >> plenty of pent-up demand there..Chinese bank deposits exceed loans by $6.5tn as caution prevails Gap is largest since 1997, with spending sinking under cloudy economic forecasts South Korea is cutting its renewable electricity target by 2030 (the previous target was ~30% and the new one is 21%) while boosting its target for nuclear electricity generation (~33% vs ~24%). Coal and LNG down Markets : German bond curve – 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in 30yrs at -40bps, recession bells ringing (note GS said, NO recession in Europe this year...who's going to be right!!?) Energy prices dropping like a stone - thank you mild weather/winter SPX500 plenty of resistance around 4K (chart)and huge short-term upside strikes were bought last few days (gamme to sell into big algo jump?).., with still 4050/4150 bigger resistance, downside 3750/3800 the base. CHINA HXC higher as covid restriction easing clearly, Europe outperformed (thank you mild winter and low energy prices, no major crisis as market talked about 6months ago..) EURCHF finally back above PAR, 1.02-1.04 area possible, no crisis in Europe etc. GBPCHF too, strikes might/should be partly avoided eventually and EU/UK also making some positive noise on protocol deal. USDJPY could well come under further pressure on BoJ review and specifically if U.S inflation softer..would not be shocked to see it back to 110-120 range this year... Crude slightly higher/off lows - Russian oil revenues falling because of price cap -U.S. official BOJ to review side-effects of massive easing at next week's meeting -Yomiuri - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Natural gas - 2023 Data - 1990-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) David Ingles on Twitter: "US inflation may have dropped below zero in December (M/M). If it did, would be first negative print since 2020. Data out Thursday. https://t.co/JqKXFHzfyh" / Twitter Game of Trades on Twitter: "Momentum has flipped bullish in the market as buyers stepped in at a crucial level Next big fight is the macro downtrend line https://t.co/dquzJQjn9R" / Twitter The Fed - House Price Growth and Inflation During COVID-19 (federalreserve.gov) Inflation crisis posing greatest near-term threat, Davos survey warns (cnbc.com) when the Davos WEF gets involved, it's often already over!! US Companies Spent $1 Trillion on Buybacks Despite Recession Warning (businessinsider.com) and often adding debt to do the buybacks.. !! California Deficits Roar Back as Stock Rout Hits Taxes (1) (bloombergtax.com) China outbound flight bookings at 15% of pre-pandemic levels - Nikkei Asia Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 mortgage player, steps back from business (cnbc.com) Russian oil revenues falling because of price cap -U.S. official | Reuters Tesla shares: How Musk made history with the biggest loss of personal wealth ever recorded (cityam.com) astonishing really SPX500, same old chart, clearly above 4K sustained move will have the shorts scratching their heads. DAX has moved up 1000points in 1month, back to 15K already, pretty amazing really.. GBPCHF (needs +ve UK news too...) and EURCHF can have a 2-3-5pct run (europe no crisis etc)

-The Fed isn't going to stop banks from lending to oil and gas and coal companies, or take other steps to promote a greener economy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell: “We are not, and will not be, a ‘climate policymaker.’” >>> Fed research: The surge in retirements since 2020 "accounts for essentially all of the shortfall" in labor force participation rates "More than half of the increase in the number of retirees appears to be a direct result of the pandemic." The Fed will start cutting rates this summer as core PCE inflation will drop to 2.1%, says UBS' global chief economist >>> that would be quite something ! let's see, recall market pricing in about 40bps cut by year-end..on the other side of the view : JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the Fed’s rate hikes may need to go beyond what’s currently expected He said he thinks there's a 50% the Fed needs to raise rates to about 5% and a 50% chance they will have to go to 6% - Bloomberg France : The entire pensions system cost the government just under 14%..of GDP in 2021, about 25% when you include healthcare in there.. inflation has changed everything, the bill is turning up in most countries one way or another... that's why we think Macron (or anyone else in charge) has no choice but to reform Goldman Sachs no longer predicts a recession in the euro area - upgrades GDP forecast to +0.6% for 2023 vs -0.1% prior per research note ECB's Schnabel: Rates must still rise significantly - Must increase at a steady pace >>> Euro-zone inflation remains near a historic high, but consumer expectations about the path for prices are falling back to their long-term norm and energy prices could well push inflation very decently lower over next few months - it will remain volatile! Binance is bleeding assets, $12 Billion gone in less than 60 days Biden : Homeowners will now save money on their taxes if they purchase eligible energy-efficient appliances and products for their homes. We're confronting the climate crisis and saving folks money in the process The Irish minister for foreign affairs Michéal Martin has said there is growing trust between EU and UK negotiators but he cautioned there was a long way to go before agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol might be reached-it has to happen sooner rather than later...Thread below FTX spent about $7 million on food in the first 9 months of 2022 That's about $26,000 a day...ever so slightly excessive.. Markets : everyone waiting for the CPI today, and earnings season starts tomorrow SPX500 and major indices, everyone has the same tech levels in mind, much more interesting stock picking for good sound companies to invest in ! You can expect 2pct SPX move tomorrow on data IF the headline is +/- 0.25% outside market expectations..see below JPM comments USD has had a big move down last 2months, beware Jan snap back, same as above and it will be the same for BONDS, which had a decent sell-off yesterday - worth noting (Powell was actually fairly strong, not dovish IMHO) LME #copper hitting $9K a ton- highest level since June 2022 Copper - 2023 Data - 1988-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) - chart (not LME prices but to put things in perspectives) Powell defends Fed taking 'measures that are not popular' to rein in inflation (msn.com) Markets love this stuff, seems the ALGO's are hooked to this.. StockMKTNewz - Evan on Twitter: "Here's what JPMorgan thinks could happen to the market on Thursday after CPI CPI below 6.4% - S&P 500 moves up by 3%-3.5% CPI 6.4%-6.6% - S&P 500 moves up by 1.5%-2% CPI above 6.6% - S&P 500 moves down by 2.5%-3% https://t.co/cRU9y7UEvy" / Twitter David Sacks: the tech reset has only just begun - The Post (unherd.com) Ruchir Sharma’s investor guide to 2023: from peak dollar to better TV | Financial Times (ft.com) A must read - IMHO .... Talking to leaders these days in any walk of life, I have a sense that people are frozen. They see that inflation is back in a serious way for the first time in decades, forcing central banks to raise interest rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s. They understand that this sudden change in the price of money — the most important driver of economic and financial behaviour — marks a fundamental break with the past. But they are not acting. After living with easy money for so long, they find it difficult even to contemplate a different world. There is a term for this state of mind: zeteophobia, or paralysis in the face of life-altering choices, couldn't agree more or said it any better, clearly! ....So many people keep doing what they were doing, hoping that somehow they won’t have to deal with change. On the assumption that central banks will once again come to the rescue, investors are still pouring money into ideas that worked in the past decade — tech funds, private equity and venture capital. Governments are still borrowing to spend and homeowners are refusing to sell as if easy money was bound to return soon ...Other countries targeted by market sell-offs in 2022 included Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Ghana, Pakistan, Hungary and even the UK. What they shared: high external and government deficits and unorthodox leaders who threatened to make those deficits worse.... spot on, really superb stuff from Ruchir - top man Macron’s pension reform: Necessary changes to an unsustainable system? (france24.com) this was a manifesto already in 2017... Reason I mentioned yesterday that Macron (or anyone else..) doesn't have any choice but to reform.. (inflation-the bill has turned up for all..) - Critics have often cast France’s pension system as byzantine or convoluted, in part because it consists of 42 different state-supported pension schemes. The entire pensions system cost the government just under 14% !!!! of GDP in 2021, about 25% when you include healthcare in there..., Italy similar, Amazon to shut three UK warehouses amid cost-cutting drive | Evening Standard Binance Is Bleeding Assets, $12 Billion Gone In Less Than 60 Days (forbes.com) Euronav tumbles after Frontline abandons tanker merger deal (msn.com) merger failure, good for other name in the sector.. Fed Will Cut Interest Rates This Summer As Core PCE Inflation Cools: UBS (businessinsider.com) vs Dimon Jamie Dimon Says the Fed May Hike Rates Much Higher Than Markets Expect (businessinsider.com) >>> take your pick... Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Fed research: The surge in retirements since 2020 "accounts for essentially all of the shortfall" in labor force participation rates "More than half of the increase in the number of retirees appears to be a direct result of the pandemic." https://t.co/WgXfidul3p https://t.co/4WTYI9qOd2" / Twitter Bookshop throws shade at Harry's book Spare with very sassy placement | indy100 Prince Harry’s book marked down to half price on day of release 🤦‍♂️ Goldman Sachs Begins Large Round of Layoffs - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Japan asks drugstores to prevent medicine hoarding by tourists - Nikkei Asia Sweden is facing its ‘day of reckoning’ as house prices plummet (cnbc.com) very similar issue in many countries, the sellers will not want to lower prices for a while (hoping it comes back, rates go lower again..) and the buyers finding out funding much more expensive than 6months ago, and they need larger deposit to buy & funding higher etc - not too different than other times in early-mid 1990's Have a super day Team PVM

No dividend as SNB loss wipes out distribution reserve.This was chiefly due to a loss on foreign currency positions of around CHF131bn, the central bank announced >>> essentially their balance-sheet is hihgly correlated to FAANG+.. Reminder: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is speaking today >> markets are pricing 40bps of cuts towards year-end again (from 30bps 1week ago), ahead of U.S CPI on Thursday given topics (see below) seems unlikely he says much about future intentions NatGas in Europe - pretty good news - see link below Fed's Bostic: Would be fair to say Fed is ‘willing to overshoot’ (the news that topped SPX yesterday), ''favors Holding Rates Above 5% for ‘a Long Time’' Fed's Daly still sticks to her terminal rate exp mentioned at Dec FOMC meeting. However, her tone is a little more dovish relative to previous interview in mid-Dec, she appears to lean toward 25bps at the upcoming FOMC meeting while she said that both were on the table >>> markets agree, markets pricing 80% probability of 25bps at next meeting 1-Year U.S inflation swap down to 2% ! Chart/thread #META has reportedly rescinded fulltime offers in London Japanese CPI less fresh food and energy, super core CPI 2.7%, highest since a long time ago...and yet YCC at 50bps...."Tokyo CPI Ticks Up Despite Weak Consumption Demand" China : An article in Health Times, a publication managed by People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper, quoted several officials as saying infections have been declining in the capital Beijing and several Chinese provinces.China’s state-run CCTV says Beijing has passed its Covid infection peak, citing the city’s acting mayor China wraps up two-year tech crackdown, top official says. Alibaba, Tencent, Didi and Meituan can expect normalized supervision Macron's government will present his plan to overhaul France’s pension system today, likely triggering mass strikes and protests that may further undermine an economy already at risk of falling into recession ‘World’s Best Restaurant’ Noma Is Closing in 2024...Chef René Redzepi now says the fine dining model on which he built an empire of 20 years is “unsustainable”, inflation changed/changes everything.. Markets : SPX500 stalls near first resistance levels 3'980/4'020, ahead of much bigger levels 4100/50 area, ahead of Powell today and U.S CPI tomorrow, broadly range 3800/4000 SPX for now, much more going on within sectors and single stock picking #qualitybalancesheet USD has weakened quite sharply since (chart below) we talked about 'peak inflation, peak usd and peak worries' 2months ago. Markets convinced FED will cut towards year-end (40bps priced in now again), beware a snap back in these January markets and low liquidiites UST30y 3.66, helping mortgage rates come back so not so horrid levels Crude stable near lows still Bostic and Co talking higher for longer, big picture we agree with this, even though U.S CPI will print lower tomorrow, as expected.. risk has done well last few weeks on lower NatGas prices in Europe, China reopening and general short covering in Equity markets (lower vols), it will get tougher from here to rally broadly Consumer inflation in Japan's capital exceeds BOJ target for 7th month (yahoo.com) No dividend as SNB loss wipes out distribution reserve - Citywire Riksbank organises International Symposium on Central Bank Independence Nickel markets brace for nail-biting threequel | Reuters France Macron to push for pension reform again despite potential strikes (cnbc.com) Javier Blas on Twitter: "Short-term forecasts still anticipate more warmer-than-seasonal weather in North-West Europe until Jan 15. Goldman Sachs puts it nicely (at least for now): "The winter that wasn't". As a result, European gas inventories haven't fallen for three consecutive weeks | #EnergyCrisis https://t.co/PYN6scvcEY" / Twitter Ed Bradford on Twitter: "1-Year inflation swap eyeballing 2% https://t.co/DYXGVmJpUz" / Twitter Gergely Orosz on Twitter: "Just in: Meta has rescinded fulltime offers in London, as I confirmed with devs impacted. New grads with offers due to start in February have been taken back in bulk. I know of about 20 people so far. This is the first time I'm aware that Meta is taking back signed, FTE offers." / Twitter China suspends short-term visas for South Korea visitors in spat over COVID curbs | Reuters Life returns to normal as more parts of China pass infection peak-Xinhua (news.cn) Overall re-opening at pace continues UK space launch: Historic Cornwall rocket launch ends in failure - BBC News when nothing is going your way.. December sales bounce due to price rises not shopping sprees - BBC News inflation helps inflate the numbers, reality is different Mark Cuban Warns of Potential New Crypto Scandal and Fraud - TheStreet if rates stay high(er) for longer, most probably.. Gippsland fish and chip shops improvise amid national potato chip shortage - ABC News Noma Restaurant, the ‘World’s Best,’ Is Closing in 2024 - Eater London EURUSD in perspective >> near 10pct move since 0.95-0.9700 lows inSep/Oct, when we focused on #peakusdollar and peak inflation - also coincided with massive BoJ interventions near 150JPY, which remember, everyone downplayed at the time..

-Fallen heroes: Central banks face credibility crisis as losses pile up...Central bankers have been celebrated as alchemists who saved the world from the abyss. Now that inflation is out of control and losses are looming, they look far less omnipotent >>> they don't have any accountability, they can fail huge, and yet they'll invent a story that this and that happened, and that's why things are screwed..It was them who pushed QE...deal with it now ! -Central banks add more gold in November as China joins the fray -China will make its prudent monetary policy more targeted and effective in order to facilitate the overall recovery and improvement of its economy, a senior official said -In 2022, the TLT-30y bond posted ''the most oversold monthly'' RSI reading in it's history -Six Chinese cities have announced GDP growth targets for next year, with most between 5.5% and 7%, on confidence that changes to #Covid policies will lead to economic recovery, Securities Daily reported, Guangzhou's 2023 GDP target growth rate is expected to exceed 6% - Caixin >>> USDCNH already sub 6.80 !... -UK : Conservative voters now think the cost of Brexit outweighs its benefits for the first time, a new poll has found, finally admitting the obvious! -Ant-linked firms' shares rise after news of Jack Ma ceding control; Alibaba jumps -ECB Sees 'Very Strong' Wage Growth Ahead In Next Few Quarters -Sweden's NATO Bid Derailed: 'Turkey Wants What We Can't Give Them' -First negative ISM reading since early pandemic is more proof U.S. economy is slowing Markets : -Bonds, USD, equity (duration) reacted to weaker ISM, 2y yields dropped about 20bps -GOLD will continue to do well in this environment, XAG, XPT etc too - USD, leveraged money has gone decently short USD on perception FED will slow, and eventually cut - BBG article and chart below -Equity, FTSE100 (has done nothing for 10years..) breaking up (mining, foreign earnings and cheap GBP..), EZ markets outperforming U.S markets into late 2022 and as we kicked-off the new year -Crude stay near lows-cheap Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 9, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) First negative ISM reading since early pandemic is more proof U.S. economy is slowing (msn.com) Central banks add more gold in November as China joins the fray | Post by Krishan Gopaul | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council GOLD to shine jeroen blokland on Twitter: "#centralbanks have been buying #gold at an unprecedented pace. Is the freeze of #Russia's central bank assets to blame? Potentially big implications for global financial markets. #economy https://t.co/KW3ruv7h1y" / Twitter we will continue to point out these kind of data/research, Gold, Silver, XPT etc all should do pretty well over next couple of years, as rates peak, Fed does too much eventually etc. Optimism Makes Comeback on Wall Street With Soft Landing Eyed - Bloomberg Tory voters losing faith in Brexit benefits, poll finds (telegraph.co.uk) finally saying the obvious, it was a lie, and it was terrible executed! China to make monetary policy more targeted, effective: senior official - People's Daily Online Six Chinese cities have announced GDP growth targets for next year, with most between 5.5% and 7%, on confidence that changes to #Covid policies will lead to economic recovery, Securities Daily reported. http://epaper.zqrb.cn/html/2023-01/09/content_908663.htm?div=-1 Fallen heroes: Central banks face credibility crisis as losses pile up – POLITICO Hedge Funds Ramp Up Dollar Shorts, Betting on Slower Fed Interest Rate Hikes - Bloomberg Why WFH culture has made the impact of strikes even greater | News | The Sunday Times (thetimes.co.uk) >>> One Lombard Street is the City of London’s canteen: an old-fashioned brasserie where deals are sealed over early-morning plates of smoked salmon and scrambled eggs. It usually has up to 150 covers at breakfast time. But last Tuesday, Soren Ulrik Jessen, the owner, surveyed an unfamiliar scene: “For the first time in 25 years, we had zero customers.'' whaooo Why Does Private Equity Get to Play Make-Believe With Prices? | Institutional Investor Brazil authorities seek to punish pro-Bolsonaro rioters - The Himalayan Times - Nepal's No.1 English Daily Newspaper | Nepal News, Latest Politics, Business, World, Sports, Entertainment, Travel, Life Style News CNBC International on Twitter: "Brazil's business elite was one of former president Jair Bolsonaro's most ardent supporters, but the big economic turnaround they hoped for never happened. Here's what happened. https://t.co/kXLWYfKkcQ" / Twitter GOP rep: What ‘backroom deals were cut’ to secure Speakership for McCarthy? | The Hill SPX500 same tech levels, MUCH more, in fact ALL about sectors rotations, bonds/duration and stock picking

-Gridlock in the House speaker election is not really fully priced in U.S CDS markets, however default swaps a little higher than during 2016 election for example or covid period >>> bottom line there will be bigger political tensions in the U.S going forward, can't keep printing money and spend for any populist occasions to calm folks locally..! -China may ease ‘three red lines’ property rules, reopening with HK as of next week -BoJ actively protecting the new 50bps level >>> ''higher for longer'' will force BoJ's hands again in March/April (probably after their financial year-end), once Kuroda is gone, 1% anyone? -Fed's Esther George sees rates staying high at least into 2024 -Inflation "is way too high here in the United States....I and the Federal Open Market Committee remain determined to use our policy tools to bring inflation back toward our objective," Bostic said in brief remarks prepared for delivery at the start of a conference at the New Orleans branch of the Atlanta Fed -U.S homes haven't been this unaffordable since 2007 (when looking at mortgage payments as % of joint medium disposable income) >> similar picture elsewhere -China will reopen its border with Hong Kong after three years. Beijing will gradually allow cross-border travel beginning on Monday, as it continues to unwind strict covid controls -Tesla’s sales in China slumped. The EV maker sold 56,000 cars in December, marking a 21% decline from the year prior, as domestic brands like BYD have seen an uptick in business.. -Mercedes is launching a global EV-charging network. The German carmaker plans to build 10,000 charging points spanning across North America, Europe, and China by 2030 -Silvergate plunges after crypto meltdown triggered deposit run -Citigroup cuts U.S. stocks to ‘underweight’, favours European equities in 2023 Markets : -NASDAQ struggling still (ARKK and low quality names in particular..), commodities, energy, China/HK doing great, FTSE (mining etc), Europe outperforming vs U.S (FAANG's mainly..) - that's the theme of late 2022 and still the case as we kick-off 2023, BBY is another classic example of the kind of casualties 'higher for longer' will bring in 2023/24 -BOJ Faces Renewed Pressure to Defend New Yield Ceiling. New benchmark note fetched a yield of 0.5% on Thursday. BOJ increased its bond-purchase operations on Friday >>> ''higher for longer''...they will have to go higher by March/April again, when Kuroda goes -EURO awaiting that CPI data, leaked earlier in the week, meant to be pretty low, lots priced in this view by now, it better be low! Similarly U.S NFP expected to be higher following this week's data -Week 1 in the new year often/always is week of squeeze of a few consensus trades in place, bonds, USD shorts, USDJPY did not like life sub 130JPY etc (BoJ will go higher but not yet..), commods, CHINA reopening impact is/can be huge, particularly as China keeps swinging with short-term policy U-turn's.. trying to micro manage such a huge economy might not be all that such a great idea ! but markets will swing that's for sure China may ease ‘three red lines’ property rules: Bloomberg | Property | Al Jazeera Fed's Esther George sees rates staying high at least into 2024 (msn.com) Fed's Bostic: Officials "remain determined" to beat inflation (msn.com) BOJ Sees Little Need to Rush Major Yield Adjustments (yahoo.com) Citigroup cuts U.S. stocks to ‘underweight’, favours European equities in 2023 | The Mighty 790 KFGO | KFGO Bed Bath & Beyond preparing to file bankruptcy within weeks -sources | Reuters ....essentially they cannot afford higher debt financing anymore... this IS going to be a massive theme in 2023 and 2024 >>> #higherforlonger in rates will impact the weakest balance-sheets UK house prices post biggest quarterly drop since 2009: Halifax | Reuters Tesla Sales in China Slump as Competition Intensifies - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Mercedes to launch vehicle-charging network, starting in North America | Reuters Credit Suisse reshuffles investment bank after senior departure - memos (ampproject.org) can reshuffle all you want... #higherforlonger matters, debt financing costs !! Silvergate plunges after crypto meltdown triggered deposit run (coinjournal.net) have a wonderful Friday and weekend Team PVM

FOMC minutes : inflation expectations remain high though (higher for longer..), higher Terminal rate - Kashkari (strong JOLTS too yesterday and NFP tomorrow), participants mentioned ''unwarranted easing in financial conditions, market participants misinterpreted a slowing in the pace of rate hikes as a major dovish pivot'' Toyota finally revealed New Hydrogen combustion engine What could go wrong for the Federal Reserve in 2023 >>> '''U.S budget deficit''', well worth reading the article below China and Australia to renew trading of iron ore, coking coal, other goods (after a 2y ban...) another U-Turn for XI...>>> HSI, AUD higher again.. Japan is paying families to move out of Tokyo. It’s offering households ¥1 million ($7,650) per child to leave the capital in an effort to reverse population decline in other regions German Facility, built at breakneck speed, accepts Gas shipment From U.S. LNG cargo arrives at terminal in port town of Wilhelmshaven as Germany scrambles to replace Russian gas South Korea slapped Tesla with a $2.2 million fine. Antitrust authorities found the EV maker exaggerated its driving range German Import Prices -4.5% monthly, +14.5% annually vs expectation of -1.6% and +18% >>> better, going in right direction (thank you warm weather and lower energy prices..) It was a record year for crypto hacks. Decentralized finance was the prime target, accounting for two thirds of all hacks Amazon says it will cut over 18,000 jobs, more than initially planned $19trn negative yielding bonds gone during 2022 (pretty much) - this is/was a huge statement for markets - they should have never existed, but CB were silly (could use a much worse adjective!!..) as we often discussed >>> certainly partly explains MegaTechs, FAANG's hammering, including APPL, please refer to our earlier blog.. Markets: China re-opening/HK/Australia etc, commods, metals, AUD joining in, HSI continues higher, Chinese stocks still trading at a wide discount to Global Peers - big picture Bonds : EZ bonds are now fully anticipating a weak HICP on Friday, could be sub 9%, but what about core, surprise now is if not low enough for markets.. Crude down, competition with coal and LNG...! (China news, Glencore down 10pct..), down 5% yesterday, demand worries and large supply, Gas Prices in Europe continue to decline on LNG imports and warm weather USDJPY didn't like life below 130JPY, lifting crossjpy's again since - could well have put bit of a base on both for a while Big moves/low liquidities (as usual) as we kicked off 2023, AUDJPY, crude, BABA, TSLA, BTP's APPL, NatGas, ,GBP struggling, EZ equity markets 'outperforming' US markets so far, Q1 trend? remains to be seen but interesting Fed minutes December 2022: (cnbc.com) Kashkari sees Fed's target interest rate peaking at 5.4% (msn.com) What Could Go Wrong for the Federal Reserve in 2023 - The Washington Post A must read - regarding U.S budget deficit, which we have spoken with you about extensively during latter part of 2022 A final — albeit more subtle point — is the fact that the Fed’s balance sheet is still greatly enlarged at $8.56 trillion in assets. Quantitative easing added monetary policy stimulus. Thus, that stimulus should have pushed the neutral rate higher. Although that stimulus is now being withdrawn through quantitative tightening, it still will take another year or two to get back to where we started. So, while QT is tightening monetary policy, it is not yet making monetary policy tight relative to where we started. "Fed either pivots too early and turns dovish in to a high inflation scenario which is fairly bearish the USD thus helping gold or they pivot too late and cause a much bigger recession than is priced in right now, resulting flight to safety helps gold." - Goldman The ECB and Christine Lagarde now want to enforce real wage cuts for Euro area workers | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog (wordpress.com) December JOLTS report ‘reasonably strong,’ economist says (yahoo.com) China and Australia to Renew Trading of Iron Ore and Coking Coal (agmetalminer.com) China to open border with Hong Kong for first time in 3 years on Sunday | Reuters More countries are trying to get workers to leave cities (qz.com) 1st tanker carrying LNG from US arrives in Germany | AP News South Korea fines Tesla $2.2m for exaggerating driving range of EVs - Nikkei Asia Over $3 Billion Stolen In Crypto Heists: Here Are The Eight Biggest (forbes.com) Amazon says it will cut over 18,000 jobs, more than initially planned (cnbc.com) Switzerland boosts gold imports from Russia despite sanctions – media - NewsRescue.com Rishi Sunak on Twitter: "As your Prime Minister you need to know what my focus will be, so you can hold me to account directly on whether it is delivered. These are my five promises 👇 https://t.co/XyXrlMshdG" / Twitter >>> his target is halving inflation, that's what predictions are already - nothing new - still will leave it at 5-6%... Nobody wants to confront the truth: Britain is becoming a poor country (telegraph.co.uk) Toyota FINALLY Revealed New HYDROGEN Combustion Engine | GAME CHANGER! - YouTube

-BUND spiked higher yesterday (and everything else follows).. market chatter EZ CPI will be softer, and helped lift DAX and other European markets - EZ CPI and other key macro data coming up this week, with NFP on Friday too -Mild weather is crushing energy demand, sending European gas and power prices sharply lower -China re-opening story is/will be huge - either way for markets, with obvious candidates, like ChinaA50, HSI, commodities, metals, shipping and so on the likely big beneficiaries, still.. (major Eq exchanges charts below) - #Longduration US techs (as warned many times las year, ARKK etc etc) “was” the equity trade of the last decade, that trade is over. Investors got to look forward to the next 3-5-10years, not need to look in the rear-view mirror.. -Croatia just became the Euro's newest member -Musk became the first ever man to lose $200bn (and in just over 1 year..) -The super-rich ‘preppers’ planning to save themselves from the apocalypse -Gold buyers binge on biggest volumes for 55 years. China and Russia have been large accumulators of the precious metal in 2022, analysts say -How private markets became an escape from reality. There will be nowhere to hide in the tight money era-FT -Most market participants expects equity and bonds down in 2023, due to ongoing tight(er) monetary policies and now recession fears, weaker global economic activities, the contrarian will say 'so it will rally''....the real question is what is priced and where, and most importantly whether FED actually cuts by end of 2023/24 as Mr Markets wants and has priced in -BOJ may raise its inflation forecast for FY2023 and 2024 to close to 2%, again, some sort of Japanese 'taper' in 2023 would be a huge surprise for markets, and woul have huge implications too, that all said, USDJPY already down from 150 to 130JPY area >>> remember ? never ever underestimate BoJ over time, back then too many chose to ignore their $75bn UST sales... Markets : - Early kick-off in markets usually pretty wild, as liquidities come at a premium, quite often 'owned' positions challenged, as seen this early morning, 'short usdollar' position challenged (although more of a still CROSSJPY selling price action overall - BoJ inflation expectations..), as well as short equities etc -Technical recap from Saxo below, always worth having a look at them in the new year! - GOLD : A record 399 tons of gold purchases by central banks took place in the third quarter >>> have you got any #XAUUSD exposure ? physical, miners, etc etc and don't forget #XPT either - FWIW ....My new year resolutions are : ..much of the same, be kind to others, never underestimate what markets can do, share the love, avoid greed, focus on real economy, and wish all low paid workers a big pay rise (sorry Central bankers..), keep doing what works, trust your own work #PVMinvestment matrix was slightly up last year in the #longonly category of the investment world Quarterly Technical Outlook - S&P500, Nasdaq100, DAX, FTSE100, FTSE250 and Hang Seng Index | Saxo Group (home.saxo) 2022 : DJIA -8.8% S&P 500 -19.4% Nasdaq -33.1% Bitcoin -64.2% TSLA -65.0% ARKK -67.0% PVM +1% Gold buyers binge on biggest volumes for 55 years | Financial Times (ft.com) Bank of Japan weighs raising inflation forecasts closer to 2% target - Nikkei Asia Izabella Kaminska on Twitter: "NATO weather machine is on:" / Twitter Croatia takes final steps into EU with open border and euro switch | Croatia | The Guardian Citywire Forecast | Switzerland Fixed Income Issue 39 | How to earn yield from crypto most likely a big NO - but of course it depends who you asking The super-rich ‘preppers’ planning to save themselves from the apocalypse | The super-rich | The Guardian How private markets became an escape from reality | Financial Times (ft.com) Only if you want to be pretty bearish US markets: Systemic Calamity | Felix Zulauf - YouTube and do not really listen if you don't want to listen to end of the world stuff Brexit poll: Two years on, two-thirds of Britons support a future referendum on rejoining the EU | The Independent Hope this daily helps you navigate markets ! it should - never hesitate to ask questions about it, about the comments, the charts etc Have a great start to 2023 All best Team PVM

Let's try to describe 2022 is a few words : this is when financial fantasy, misconception or even hallucination ended, and when real life, authenticity or realism came back with a vengeance Not many wanted to see inflation clearly heading north in early 2022 or even late 2021, we did. Not many wanted to accept that rates had to go higher and that QE had to stop, after $30trn of phoney money created last 7+years. We often talked about it : It really changed everything, inflation changed everything, but many are still fighting this idea, as in, rates will come back down in 2023 or 2024 and everything will be fine, it might be, but we continue to think rates will be ''high(er) for longer'' ZIRP, NIRP, free money allowed crazy misallocation of capital and crazy bizz models were put together on the back of a 'fag packet' over the last few years Negative-yielding bonds finally all gone (should have never happened..), remember those, remember that 100y Austria bond ? NO more coins to pump and dump and 'meme stocks' , NO more cheap electricity to mine silly Dogecoin and others De-Globalization is en route, after 30+ years of keeping/forcing inflation down with cheap labour in China/Asia, it's over NO more QE, more like QT now Almost ALL developed and emerging market Central Banks are or have been tightening in 2022 - they may not tighten much in 2023, but it doesn't mean they will cut rates in any hurry Back to reality for many years to come, which is excellent, though it will require some major adjustments in the kind of investments many folks do over next 5years+ Markets : -next potential elephant in the room for 2023 is the Japanese Taper, which would cause big headaches not only in Japan/JPY etc - SPX500 - we stick to the trend-chart below big picture, 'higher for longer' has more negative implications for QQQ, ARKK and al - still -USD may have peaked in 2022, Petroyuan, ECB super hawkish in Dec (BUBA in charge now), RoW cannot continue to spend and increase debt, this game is OVER, bond vigilante spoke for the first time when Kamikaze stepped in, this WAS the first clear signal for everyone that governments HAD to behave now or their currencies (and long-end) would be trashed >>> it is no wonder since that UK episode, that ECB turned hawkish, and even BoJ finally got rid of YCC! -Rates likely staying higher for longer, but not much higher in the US, Terminal rate 5%, rates cannot go much higher with so much debt around the world, best increase QT next -Inflation has peaked, we know this, fine, it will go back down to 4-5% sure, but not 2% -Recession or not in 2023, who knows, slowdown for sure, let's not be distracted by it and continue to invest in solid and sustainable businesses ! IMHO, recession calls from larger banks have become 'consensus', so many contrarian punters think there will be no recession. It is quite clear though, that the negative wealth shock from financial assets/stocks/crypto/bonds etc is seriously beginning to weigh on consumption spending Joe Biden’s green subsidies may backfire, warns EU commissioner - todayuknews With ‘Zero Covid,’ China Proved It’s Good at Control. Governance Is Harder. - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Wealth managers grapple with one of their worst years in a century | Financial Times (richmond.edu) Not the case at PVM ! The internet-famous Shiba Inu who inspired 'doge' memes, and a joke cryptocurrency, is seriously ill with cancer (yahoo.com) can't believe i'm even putting this on here, so 2022 fiction stuff TSMC founder Morris Chang says globalization 'almost dead' - Nikkei Asia Putting Putin and Company in the Dock by Gordon Brown - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) Brexit was grown on the magic money tree | Comment | The Times sure was, one wonders if any party will change their tunes for the next election - never too late to accept that it was a major lie SPX500 topside 4050/4150, trendline resistance and 200dma around 4010 now vs downside 3500-3700 area (lows in Sep-Oct)