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Fitch downgrades U.S. after ''repeated debt limit standoffs'' >>> $33trn pile of debt and growing exponentially, cost of financing through the roof etc... the surprise is how long it took to downgrade, US state and local governments just experienced the worst decline in income tax revenues ever recorded Quite important as the US was split rated with Fitch & Moody’s at AAA and S&P at AA+ , which meant that despite the 2011 S&P downgrade, the US was still a AAA country. But now with the downgrade overnight, it is no longer the case "In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years" Saudi borrowing costs hit record, threatening Crown Prince MBS’ Vision 2030, Saibor moves above 6%, potentially hitting Saudi businesses >>> same problem Russia targeted Odesa region port infrastructure, Ukraine says - Izmail port hit in Russian drone attack, The UK foreign secretary has accused Russia of hitting "a new low" by "deliberately burning food stocks" while millions of people are "struggling to eat" Prices for luxe Swiss watches like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet are approaching a 2y low on secondary markets (after a huge rally in previous years..) Donald Trump: Ex-US president charged with plotting to overturn 2020 election defeat The average price of a used Tesla is now over $25k lower than its peak price from last July. That's a 37% decline to $42,785, a new all-time low (good news! finally some ok 2nd hand EV prices!) FED’s Bostic Urges caution with more hikes as inflation recedes China's cyberspace watchdog CAC issued a draft regulation on mobile services for juveniles, to extend the scope of control to hardware. For users aged 8 to 15, mobile devices should be set to default to a total usage time of no more than 1 hour Markets : EURUSD 1.0950 area trends line support a must hold for EURO bulls, sell CROSSJPY's, TP on longs, tactical short from here GOLD 50dma around $1950 a must hold for the bulls on weeklies NQ and SPX500 uptrends very 'stretched' - see Saxo charts below, Asia was down quite sharply again overnight Markets been too quiet, low vols, AI momentum driven rally, 'mem' stocks joined in etc.. and a surprise came about, US rating downgrade, many will claim it doesn't matter...let's see, IMHO, it does with 33trn of debt and growing..Yellen is right, it is based on old data, correct >>> the cost of financing debt is not 500bn but it is now $1trillion yearly..!! Fitch downgrades U.S. after debt limit stalemate - POLITICO It's always some else's fault.. fact it, here we are.. Biden team: US credit rating decision 'bizarre' - and it's Trump's fault - CityAM The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter: "Total US debt levels are expected to rise from 98% of GDP in 2023 to 118% of GDP in 2033. By 2053, Debt-to-GDP in the US is expected to hit an alarming 195%. Hopefully today's downgrade of the US credit rating brings some more attention to this topic. This is unsustainable. https://t.co/Cs4Tmw3PzH" / X SUMMARY OF FITCH'S U.S. CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADE: Fitch downgrades U.S. long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+ for the first time since 2011. Here's why: 1. Erosion of Governance: Repeated debt-limited political standoffs have eroded confidence in fiscal management 2. Rising Government Deficits: Fitch expects the deficit to rise to 6.3% on GDP in 2023 from 3.7% in 2022 3. General Government Debt Rising: Fitch expects further increases in debt-to-GDP going forward 4. Unaddressed Medium-Term Fiscal Challenges: Rising rates are resulting in an increase in interest costs and tax cuts set in 2017 are set to expire in 2025, adding political pressure 5. Fed Interest Rate Hikes: Fitch expects one more rate hike by September which adds more pressure on ratings Fitch made it clear that failure to address governmental spending issues and macroeconomic policy could lead to MORE negative revisions. Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "US state and local governments just experienced the worst decline in income tax revenues ever recorded. This was the second steepest year-over-year percentage decline in history, with only the GFC having a worse outcome. Note that Federal tax receipts are also dropped again,… https://t.co/jLa1hKTUcq" / X Technical analysis SP500 Nasdaq100 uptrends stretched correction looming | Saxo Group (home.saxo) >> Summary: Uptrends in S&P 500/US500 cfd and Nasdaq 100/USNAS100 cfd are very stretched and charts are showing top and reversal patterns. Combined with divergence on indicators a correction should be expected. Key supports to be observed Nicely put together - market update, charts etc The Week in Charts (7/31/23) - Charlie Bilello's Blog Saudi Arabia Borrowing Rate Saibor Surges, Hurting MBS's Diversification Push - Bloomberg Bank of England set to raise interest rates above 5% | Evening Standard The last one that tips a few things over the edge.. Russian drones hit port, grain storage in Ukraine's Odesa region -official | Reuters James Cleverly accuses Russia of new low in Africa speech - BBC News mainly macro: The Farage-Coutts affair exemplifies the bankruptcy of UK media and politics Donald Trump: Ex-US president charged with plotting to overturn 2020 election defeat - what happens next (yahoo.com) NASDAQ - overdone

Happy Swiss National day China manuf PMI came in at 49.3 in July, slightly better than the expected 49.2, China non-manufacturing PMI slowed to 51.5 in July, its 4th straight monthly decline Hence, looking at overnight data : China to provide easier access for mid- to long-term funds to invest in its stock market as “stabilizers” and guide household savings to the market, as part of its capital market reform, China Securities Journal There are a total of 45 million people with student loans, and the average monthly student loan payment is around $200, so resuming student loan payments in October will subtract roughly $9 bn from consumer spending every month, or $100 bn a year/Apollo's Slok Chile’s central bank slashed its key interest rate by a larger-than-expected 100 basis points, RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.10% for a second straight meeting Americans owe nearly $1 trillion in credit card debt (pretty scary numbers, with financing a over 20% on average) U.S Treasury boosts July-Sep quarterly borrowing est to $1trn (from $733bn), The US National debt is up $1.8 trillion since the debt ceiling “crisis.”, to about $33trn by now Goldman warns on betting on tech, AI: "The dot-com experience of the late 1990s is worth remembering because some telecom companies that spent mightily to install miles of dark fiber never generated a return sufficient to cover their cost of capital" US banks further tightened lending standards for loans in the second quarter/Thread BP CEO Bernard Looney says that global oil demand has been "incredibly resilient"; he sees a 2m b/d y-on-y increase in 2023 (similar to other oil CEO's..) A new report finds that some popular EVs and hybrids in the US are now selling below MSRP, suggesting demand for sought-after electrified vehicles may be slipping Warren Buffett's favorite market gauge hits 171%, signaling stocks are overheated Exxon About To Become 'Lithium Kingpin'? Talks Begin With Tesla, Ford, Volkswagen, Reports Say Burkina Faso and Mali say they will consider a regional military intervention in Niger as a declaration of war against them Markets : More short covering in few meme stocks last few days, pretty sharp moves in % terms for many of them most shorted names. SPX500 and main indices awaiting big earning reports over next few days from AMZN & AAPL AUD a little softer again on RBA (which looks all but done) and softer China data, USDCHF finding a bid again 0.9650+ area, USDJPY will be taken higher by markets and pushed till BoJ says or actually does anything big (anything other than 'we are watching FX moves'', BoJ will either need to defend the JPY again vs USD, or risk severe inflation/PPI etc >>>> stronger USDollar (oversold) developping in short-term, could well shake risk a little bit Crude stays firm, biggest monthly rise in commods..which may become an issue with 2nd round type inflation scare. Though whet prices NO higher, in face of UKR news of grain destruction from RU ExxonMobil in lithium supply talks with Tesla, Ford: Report (msn.com) How new lithium extraction tech could help us meet EV targets (cnbc.com) Buffett Indicator Hits 171%, Signaling Stocks Are Pricey and May Crash (businessinsider.com) Several EVs and hybrids now selling below MSRP, report says (yahoo.com) Oil rallies in July as traders give up 'growth pessimism': Goldman (yahoo.com) jeroen blokland on Twitter: "US banks further tightened lending standards for loans in the second quarter. Historically, tighter lending standards have been accompanied by - negative loan growth - declining #GDPgrowth - a spike in #defaults - widening credit and high yield #spreads Have you looked at high… https://t.co/TX0Lnqf9UX" / X China Stocks Rally as Optimism Builds Over Economic Stimulus - Bloomberg Cover Story: China’s Property Crisis Contagion Spreads to State-Backed Developers - Caixin Global and Contraction in China factory activity extends into a fourth month (cnbc.com) 11 dead and 27 missing in flooding around Beijing after days of rain, Chinese state media report (yahoo.com) pretty crazy weather and floods Marc Rubinstein on Twitter: "After 15 years as a public company, Sculptor Capital Mgmt (formerly Och-Ziff)—one of the only listed hedge funds—finally called time. The experiment failed. The stock came to the market at $320 and goes out at $11. Along the way, employees took out $4.3bn of comp.…" / X Coinbase CEO says SEC told it to delist everything but Bitcoin: Report (cointelegraph.com) Caroline Ellison paid herself $22.5 million bonus around the time she estimated a more than $10 billion cash shortfall at FTX, lawsuit alleges (yahoo.com) Six wind turbines installed to boost Switzerland’s green power - SWI swissinfo.ch Retailers in trouble as 51 per cent of punters cut back on clothes shopping (cityam.com) That's were folks are cutting HSBC Doubles Profit From Higher Interest Rates (finews.asia) >>> The boss of HSBC has warned that “tougher times are ahead” for British households as an increasing number of fixed mortgage deals end Loan officers expect to tighten standards for rest of 2023: Fed (yahoo.com) How much credit card debt Americans hold by age (cnbc.com) France announces evacuation from Niger as Britons urged to register (msn.com) Turkey to target ‘under the mattress’ gold in effort to bolster the lira | Financial Times (ft.com) Bob Elliott on Twitter: "Folks are likely sick of me talking about gold, but enjoyed sharing my perspective here: "Most investors don't realize that over the last 75 years during periods of equity declines, gold has served as a better protection than bonds about half the time." https://t.co/msnCzgCJLw" / X Brazil stock market - tempting !

Goldman Sachs: "We estimate that global oil demand has risen to an all-time high in July of 102.8m b/d"... U.S PCE for June slowed more than exp. to 0.165% MoM, 4.1% YoY, lowest since Sep 2021, Kashkari talking 50/50 for Sep, nothing that inflation outlook was quite positive JPY backed off after BoJ, as most of the move happened before BoJ meeting (RR flipped quickly on Friday morning for JPY puts, market took profit on their long JPYcalls), Goldman, Morgan Stanley say BOJ's latest move will boost Japanese stocks, IN FACT they bought 10y JGB's this morning as an 'emergency operation'! UBS on Bank of Japan Yield Curve Control - ceiling seems to be 1%, let's see when it'll be tested Germany faces 5 tough years, economy minister warns. Berlin should borrow money to subsidize energy for companies or risk losing its industry, Robert Habeck cautions G4 Central Banks Balance Sheet, Normalization... Still far away >> from 26trn to 22trn, it was 16trn before covid China : For all the excitement, most of these measures don't expand consumption at all. They are designed to "encourage" consumption/Thread from M.Pettis, but quite a few arguments elsewhere that it should encourage equity investments locally again.. The S&P 500 is now 5% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022 Lagarde : ECB made very good progress on inflation, 'could hike again after a pause', ECB's Nagel says eurozone core inflation is stubborn, need interest rates kept high Inflation profiteering charge leveled at Swiss retailers Markets : 10y UST 4%, still in this goldilocks range, might be time to watch out though 3.8/4.1% ranged more recently to keep an eye on! FX : JPY back to 3week lows, BoJ tweak not enough, CROSSJPY's rally together with USDJPY, the RR move Friday morning was the tell, mixed USD moves, a little bit of CHF weakness (very relative). Norges Bank will purchase equivalent to NOK 1B per day in August 2023, unch from July Equity markets continue to enjoy their goldilocks moment, 'meme' stocks joining in, more broad based rally seen, NIKKEI back up, HSI Techs in focus too etc. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 19.4 is above the 5-year average (18.6) and above the 10-year average (17.4). Crude WTI $80+ continue to hold well, sticking with view risk is higher still, big July rally in cruide and various commodities, which makes you think about another kick in inflation.. Christine Lagarde: «Nous avons beaucoup avancé dans notre combat contre l’inflation» (lefigaro.fr) Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/8 For all the excitement, most of these measures don't expand consumption at all. They are designed to "encourage" consumption, by improving delivery mechanisms, creating more consumption "occasions", promoting sports and cultural events, reducing... https://t.co/pgw3481D39" / X Market breath : ''Looking at the percentage of SPX members that are trading over their respective 50DMAs - this metric nearly hit 90% this week, and that has typically coincided with extremely positive performance going forward, with the SPX averaging 15% 12mo perf and positive returns after nearly every single occurrence of breaking 85%. That being said, there are reasons to be cautious. First, nearly every historical occurrence came after a recession or fiscal / monetary / debt / trading crisis – arguably we haven’t gotten ours yet. Second, these periods of broad stock gains don’t seem to last very long'' Germany faces 5 tough years, economy minister warns – POLITICO Intel's AI bullishness shows its anxiety on catching Nvidia (qz.com) African Union gives 15-day ultimatum to Niger junta to end regime but soldiers seek continuity | The Independent Europe weather: How heatwaves could forever change summer holidays abroad - BBC News Extreme heat in Europe prompts tourists to seek cooler vacation spots (cnbc.com) Sunak announces approval of 100 new North Sea oil and gas licences | Fossil fuels | The Guardian Bank of England monetary bosses should have their pay tied to inflation targets - CityAM Inflation profiteering charge leveled at Swiss retailers - SWI swissinfo.ch Company pays employees to exercise: It's a 'fail-safe investment' (cnbc.com) USDJPY - never traded below 138JPY for the $ bulls to be challenged... risk is up and away again

BoJ headline 'unchanged', but it isn't, BoJ decided "to conduct yield curve control with greater flexibility, regarding the upper and lower bounds of the range as references, not as rigid limits” >>> an invitation to price discovery for markets Powell and Lagarde sounding very similar in the last 48hours, however their underlying economies flagging anything but the same signals.. (China, UKR-RU grain risk, energy prices etc)...>>> hence growing conviction that ECB is closer to a pause than the FED ECB's Müller : at current levels, ECB decision are no longer obvious, rate hikes are clearly having an effect, food-price rises likely ot ease in H2 2023, near-term GDP outlook worse than a few months ago ECB raised all rates by 25bps as exp, depot rate to 3.75%, highest since Apr2001, main refi rate to 4.25%, highest since 2008. It’s 9th consecutive hike in a cycle that started exactly 1y ago. APP Portfolio declining at measured and predictable pace so balance sheet will continue to shrink in months ahead >>> Bank shares dropped following ECB decision to no longer pay interest on the minimum reserves, and Lagarde got a little 'tested' when reminded that last month she said they were not even thinking about pausing... Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné, asked today about high electricity prices in Europe: "The world has changed. [...] The energy transition has an impact on the energy prices, and there is no way to make the transition in Europe without an even higher price." 'The era of global warming has ended. The era of global boiling has arrived' UN Secretary General António Guterres warns of 'unbreathable' air and 'unbearable' temperatures to come Italy taking different path than Germany (China or US) JPMorgan Sees Gold Charging to Records in 2024 as Fed Cuts Rates Citigroup tells UK workers it will begin monitoring office attendance data, the latest sign of Wall Street's increasingly stringent approach to remote work Putin promised to send free grain to six African countries amid criticism of Russia's decision to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints Regulators announce ‘Basel III endgame’ rules for large US banks May Sell Special Bond to Swap Local Hidden Debts - Securities Times. Authorities in China are likely to issue special bonds for refinancing purpose to swap local hidden debt after the Politburo hinted at a package to address the problem Sequoia Cuts Crypto Fund to $200 Million From $585 Million -- WSJ (also pares back ecosystem fund by half, amid broader startup downturn Markets : Cocoa prices now, hitting a 12y highs >>> If -- and that's a big if -- current petroleum prices stick, energy inflation will become a y-on-y problem from Aug-Sept. CB's will need to keep an eye on gasoline and diesel again. Wheat fell for a third day from the highest close in five months as the outlook for ample near-term supplies outweighed concerns over the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port facilities EURO set for its biggest weekly fall since early may, finally markets realizing that EU growth may be (is) in a worse spot then the U.S. >>> also comments from Knot we referred to two weeks ago (Müller today), confirming top at 1.12 eurusd, thus confirming lows in USDCHF around 0.8600 >>> USD needs to to above .8800CHF and below 1.0850euro to confirm, watch out for EURJPY now too - IMHO, ECB is done on rates Equity markets pushed higher again META initially and on ECB news, but faded a little on EU and US banks news (above) BONDS, long-ends troubling moves, 10's UST back to 4%, A bear steepener would be a major pain trade right now JPY has been a one way traffic lower, supporting all kinds of carry trades this year, (Nikkei incl), so beware a possible change of mind by Mr Market is these relativelyx quiet/low implied vol/low liquidity summer weeks, VIX has gone totally off radars too Regulators announce ‘Basel III endgame’ rules for large US banks | Financial Times (ft.com) Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek on Twitter: "JPMorgan Sees Gold Charging to Records in 2024 as Fed Cuts Rates —Bank sees mild US recession and rate cuts in second quarter —Has price target of $2,175 for final three months of next year https://t.co/XK6oQFsrvp" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is looking to build up a relationship w/Joe Biden by pledging to break with #China. Meloni plans to exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Biden will be asked to include Italy in calls on Ukraine. Italy, like much of Europe, has been caught… https://t.co/J7hIrsNW9L" / Twitter Meloni plans to exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Biden will be asked to include Italy in calls on Ukraine. Italy, like much of Europe, has been caught in the escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, which have been exacerbated by Beijing’s support for Russia following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine China signals more support for real estate with a 'big change' in tone (cnbc.com) Low Fed interest rates reshaped the U.S. economy; here's what's next (cnbc.com) Global coal demand set to remain at record levels in 2023 - News - IEA Coal consumption hit an all-time high in 2022, IEA says (cnbc.com) ITV warns of 'worst advertising recession since the financial crisis' (telegraph.co.uk) all going to META - actually Meta kept going by lowering ad prices (to keep high volumes) Reuters on Twitter: "Drone footage shot on the Greek island of Rhodes showed cliffs and trees scorched by wildfires that have raged for more than a week and led to the mass evacuation of tourists https://t.co/BOet5dUrN7" / Twitter Niger coup live: Unrest as army backs guards who moved against Bazoum | News | Al Jazeera Tesla created secret team to suppress thousands of driving range complaints (cnbc.com) Government likely to lose millions in dispute over PPE contract awarded via ‘VIP lane’ | Conservatives | The Guardian >>> a tiny firm that had zero experience in PPE, that was introduced via the ‘VIP lane’ by a Tory peer, pocketed £20m+, delivered nada, changed its name, when sued, its offshore parent company conveniently went into liquidation....seems legit? Heavy rain speeds up slide of mountain towards Swiss village - SWI swissinfo.ch True nightmare UBS Not Out of the Woods in Forex Case (finews.asia) Donald Trump faces further charges in Mar-a-Lago classified documents probe | Evening Standard Beneath France’s revolts, hidden success (economist.com) NIKKEI - also benefited from ex china flows that went Japan's way recently, but IF JPY was to strengthen, then beware

ECB decision time. Fed hiked rates by 25bps, as expected for weeks, bringing fed funds rate to highest since beginning of 2001 >>> next 2 meeting are 'live', that is unchanged expectations as well, JPow keeping options open, got his balanced message across, will follow data etc... when you have wage growth of 5 or 6% it's going to be rather difficult for inflation to fall to 2% (Powell mentioned not before 2025..)>>> high(er) for longer, ECB similar pricing and expectations, BoJ tomorrow and it's more like 50/50 as to what they do or say..(given where inflation is in JPN, they have to tweak YCC but ...) Israel’s Tech Companies Are Fighting Netanyahu—or Leaving the Startup Nation. As protests rage over Israel’s controversial reforms to the supreme court, many tech companies have been moving their money and headquarters offshore Worst cardboard-box recession since 2008 could be a sign of broader economic weakness Microsoft sees AI making ‘gradual’ growth contributions Stocks will tumble, recession will strike, and dollar dominance is at risk, Thomas Peterffy warns This GOP candidate and his ideas deserve to be taken seriously/Asa Hutchinson Bank of Japan meet Friday - BoJ : BNP is expecting the BOJ to widen YCC to +/- 100 bps (from 50), GS and few others joining in the view Goldman Sachs said hedge fund clients net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in 9 months on Tuesday. It was led by purchases of yuan-denominated A-shares listed in mainland China, followed by Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong. The buying was muted for ADRs North Korea's Kim Jong Un will meet with high-level delegations from Russia & China in Pyongyang. Discussions will centre on deepening military ties Mastercard moves to ban cannabis purchases on its debit cards China tries to stimulate Private Investment With a $445 billion boost The world is consuming a record amount of crude, despite talk of shifting away from the fuel. "We use enough crude to fill about 6,500 Olympic-size swimming pools every day:"/thread Ship fire still rages off Dutch coast - with 3000 cars on board UFOs and aliens bring a divided US Congress together! SNAP has paid out a total of $8.2 billion in freshly issued stock (SBC) since its 2017 IPO. The company’s market cap today is $16bn, and it has never showed a profit Markets : Equity markets love a bit of lower vol, lower USDollar and softer/flatter curve, Dow notches longest winning streak since 1987 after latest Fed rate hike, META up nearly 10% after the bell.. SPX500 trending higher still, to new highs then, as long as 4300-4400 holds - chart below , HSI Techs 20pct off lows - massively underperforming US lately..>>> softer USDollar is also changing/supporting conf call of big large global corps including big techs.. USDollar softer still/overall going into ECB now, a hawkish Lagarde will be a surprise for markets now (after Knot the other week) and we could easily be right back to 1.12 highs in EURUSD, EURJPY 157-158 key recent tops, USDJPY needs to trade below 138 USDJPY to challenge the USD bulls Crude and commods firm(er) with softer USDollar, Rice prices in Asia jump to the highest level in more than three years after top shipper India banned a hefty chunk of its exports Inscrutable Bank of Japan will have to surprise someone | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here The Fed raised rates to a 22-year high, citing faster growth (qz.com) Meta stock gains after earnings, guidance from Facebook parent top expectations (yahoo.com) Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "The world is consuming a record amount of crude, despite talk of shifting away from the fuel. "We use enough crude to fill about 6,500 Olympic-size swimming pools every day:" @JavierBlas https://t.co/hJtWC8v1iO https://t.co/8zNDB4ESDo" / Twitter FTC readies lawsuit that could break up Amazon - POLITICO Opinion | Asa Hutchinson's FBI reform proposal offers a model for Republicans - The Washington Post Turkish central bank raises year-end inflation forecast to 58% | Reuters that is not good Microsoft sees AI making ‘gradual’ growth contributions (yahoo.com) And it's expensive, it's great but it'll take time... How Low Demand for Cardboard Boxes Could Signal a Recession: Kiplinger Economic Forecasts (yahoo.com) Why big banks like JPMorgan want put Wall Street on a blockchain (cnbc.com) Thomas Peterffy Warns of Stock Market Plunge, Recession, Dollar Risks (businessinsider.com) Japan records steepest population decline while number of foreign residents hits new high - Japan Today China Tries To Stimulate Private Investment With A $445 Billion Boost | FastReveal Why Volvo's $35K Electric SUV Is One of the Best Tesla Rivals yet (businessinsider.com) Wasteland Capital on Twitter: "$SNAP has paid out a total of $8.2 billion in freshly issued stock (SBC) since its 2017 IPO. The company’s market cap today is $16bn, and it has never showed a profit (losing $9.2bn since the IPO). They invented a literal money printer for themselves. https://t.co/bZj4HneBGl" / Twitter Pimco co-founder Bill Gross says he's bought regional bank stocks - MarketWatch Netanyahu's reckless gamble has driven a wedge between Israel and the US (inews.co.uk) Israel’s Tech Companies Are Fighting Netanyahu—or Leaving the Startup Nation | WIRED UK Nothing good going on here Debakel: Vontobel fällt tief in Krise - Inside Paradeplatz Ethereum Technical Analysis - The bulls are watching these support levels | Forexlive few of you were asking - no specific view here, other than 'high-er for longer ' rates + reduction of balance-sheet from CB's should not help this sector Privacy group challenges Ryanair's use of facial recognition | Reuters Sinéad O'Connor obituary: A talent beyond compare - BBC News Regulate e-bike and e-scooter batteries like fireworks, urges charity | Evening Standard Let’s be honest, banks like Coutts should be able to choose their customers - CityAM pure coincidence.. ? GB News owner's hedge fund nets millions betting against NatWest (telegraph.co.uk) Ship fire still rages off Dutch coast (yahoo.com) good grief Sadiq turns up the pressure on Starmer over Brexit | The Spectator Mastercard moves to ban cannabis purchases on its debit cards | Reuters UFOs and aliens bring a divided US Congress together - BBC News SPX500 - grinding higher, unconcerned about much!

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is finalizing its long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Amazon in a move that could ultimately break up parts of the company, the wide-ranging lawsuit is expected as soon as August and will likely challenge a host of Amazon's business practices Texas Instrument softer guidance, MSFT 'slowing revenue growth', Snap 'weaker guidance-forecast' too, LVMH 'aspirational clients are not shopping as much as they used to'', Google better growth cloud computing mentioned, RR raises forecast MSFT say AI earnings to be gradual - probably close to reality ! it's huge, it's possibly game changer, but not everyone clearly is cashing in instantly...! a market that will have to deal with a lot of stuff that got priced in within 2months... July 2023 euro area bank lending survey : Credit standards tightened further for all loan categories, demand for loans decreased strongly for both firms and households, Banks more concerned about non-performing loans, set to tighten lending conditions, Climate risks increasingly reflected in lending conditions and Credit standards tightening in line with exp in Q2, and is set to tighten again in Q3 Looking ahead to #FOMC meeting this week, another rate hike would put “proxy fed funds rate” (which takes forward guidance and balance sheet operations into account) much closer to mid-2000 peak/Thread Puts tied to the S&P 500 dropping 5% in the next year have never cost less – BofA Oz inflation slightly softer headline Nigel Farage calls for entire NatWest board to go after boss quits over banking row, after The CEO of NatWest resigned in the middle of the night US charges British billionaire Joe Lewis with insider trading Dear ECB ..together with super weak PMI and Knot the other week (#eurusd top 1.12+) , Lagarde may well be close to 'flip-flopping'..."Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, was -8.0% in June, compared with -7.0% in May" ECB deleveraging continues. Ahead of this weeks meeting, CenBank shrank its balance sheet by €18.6bn to €7,186.9bn as matured bonds were not replaced by new ones US Same-Store Sales Down 0.4% Y/y in Week: Redbook - Bloomberg *Same-store sales, fell 0.4% in the July 22 week compared to a year earlier *MTD sales through July 22 fell 0.3%, that's pretty weak too (rate hikes biting, slowly but surely), Richmond Fed Manuf Index fell to -9 vs. -10 est. & -8 prior (rev down from -7) … new orders fell further into contraction; shipments declined, revenue ticked higher (but still in contraction); employment ticked higher into expansion Markets : -Equity markets 'up here' on very low volumes/loosing momentum perhaps..risk premium falls to levels not seen in more than 20 years , BEWARE (#timeforahedgingtrade), as quite a few 'guidance' are softer, MST on AI is potentially BIG news, and so is AMZN >> imnplied vols pretty low if ever you wanted a #hedge -CROSSJPY's softer ahead of BoJ (now into position, run it ! #trailingstop and trade your gamma! etc.... FED and ECB ALL but priced in for long, EU data in particular but also US macro data softer... -Markets look a little too quiet for my liking Australia’s June quarter inflation falls to 6%, ABS reports | Australian economy | The Guardian Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB deleveraging continues. Ahead of this weeks meeting, CenBank shrank its balance sheet by €18.6bn to €7,186.9bn as matured bonds were not replaced by new ones. ECB's total assets are now equal to 53% of Eurozone GDP vs #Fed's 31%, #SNB's 121%, #BoJ's 129%. https://t.co/N7R0VaqYLj" / Twitter July 2023 euro area bank lending survey (europa.eu) doesn't bode well for growth over next 6-12months - hiking cycle impacting where it should - eventually (1) Post | Feed | LinkedIn good thread from El-Erian.... read comments below ! predicting recession on inversion is useless Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Looking ahead to #FOMC meeting this week, another rate hike would put “proxy fed funds rate” (which takes forward guidance and balance sheet operations into account) much closer to mid-2000 peak https://t.co/ycluc5iR2v" / Twitter Texas Instruments’ Lukewarm Forecast Indicates Slump Will Persist (yahoo.com) Microsoft shares fall after earnings report even as AI bet bears fruit | Microsoft | The Guardian Snap shares plunge more than 17% on weak forecast (cnbc.com) LVMH earnings: LVMH says luxury customers not shopping as much (cnbc.com) Rolls-Royce leaps as airline and defence demand lifts profits | Reuters Nigel Farage calls on entire NatWest board to go after Alison Rose quits | The Independent US charges British billionaire Joe Lewis with insider trading | Reuters USDJPY SUB 138jpy AND it will send a few alarm bells to the consensus short JPY postions out there EURJPY getting there - I'm sure you can do a better chart, but we might be onto something here

The key questions for the Fed: if the long-anticipated slowdown in inflation is finally here, will it be enough to satisfy policymakers that they’ve done enough to durably subdue price pressures even if the labor market doesn’t further weaken? >>> china pumping + looking crude, commodity markets it is not the time to be complacent about inflation... The fiscal-year-to-date federal deficit of $1.39 trillion has already surpassed last year’s full-year deficit of $1.375 trillion/Thread U.S. Weighs Potential Deal With China on Fentanyl-WSJ Beijing has demanded the U.S. lift restrictions on a police forensics institute said by Washington to have facilitated human-rights abuses Total assets on Fed's balance sheet now decisively through low prior to banking stress in March; lowest since fall of 2021 Russian billionaire calls for ‘cowards’ in Moscow elite to oppose invasion Oleg Tinkov says decision to lift UK sanctions against him may encourage other businessmen to speak out So why did Musk rebrand twitter ? Thread below Germany Readies €20 Billion in aid to bolster chip output..About 75% of the money is going to US’s Intel, Taiwan’s TSMC Spotify has announced that it will raise prices for its 200 million ad-free subscribers for the first time in over 10 years Israeli parliament passes key part of Netanyahu's divisive judicial overhaul plan. “We see the passage of part of the legal reform as unfortunate,” the Biden administration said of the move that has prompted mass protests NATO Convoys can protect Ukraine’s grain harvest from Putin. A naval plan that worked against the Iranian enemy in the 1980s can succeed against the Russian enemy today Chinese firm Catl to develop huge Bolivian lithium deposit Markets : Crude WTI 3months highs (China throwing kitchen sink to kick start the economy, China “property easing” + stimulus ) + crude shortages Agricultural commodities on the rise again #DBA ETF chart below, rice, orange juice prices at ATH's, wheat etc Equity markets : JPM's Kalanovic and Dubravko Thread/chart below, note MS's Mike Wilson has thrown in the towel on his bear call as well (humm), ''still all looks pretty rosy'', though for whatever reason or timing, should not be a surprise if we see a decent correction from around current levels #HSI could and should react positively if US/China news for real, pretty important as market well 'short China' overall #KWEB FXLAND, if the chinese authorities are serious, they will continue to intervene in USDCNH near 7.20 area ‘We Were Wrong’: Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Offers Stocks Mea Culpa (yahoo.com) Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "The key questions for the Fed: if the long-anticipated slowdown in inflation is finally here, will it be enough to satisfy policymakers that they’ve done enough to durably subdue price pressures even if the labor market doesn’t further weaken? https://t.co/jar0QpCKzq" / Twitter Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/2 I think the FT is right. Beijing has listed all the things it wants to fix, including consumption, but in most cases without proposing how it will actually fix them. I suspect there is still a lot of disagreement among policymakers over what to do. https://t.co/taNqXw17le" / Twitter Indian Ban on Non-Basmati White Rice Exports Stokes Panic Buying and Prices' Spike | FastReveal >>> reminder, if you are going to panic, panic early! Russian billionaire calls for ‘cowards’ in Moscow elite to oppose invasion | Financial Times (ft.com) Robin Brooks on Twitter: "What's going on in German manufacturing is very bad. Headline manufacturing PMI (black) and forward-looking orders - inventories (blue) are worse than at the height of the energy shock in 2022. A sign that the energy shock is far from over and is weighing on "Standort" Germany... https://t.co/05WkOQF4OA" / Twitter Michael Fritzell (Asian Century Stocks) on Twitter: "Things you don't read on Twitter https://t.co/99popNaxxo" / Twitter surely not Elon ! although ''Worth noting that Musk is branding many of his companies around the letter X. SpaceX, the new xAI and now X'' Germany Readies €20 Billion in Aid to Bolster Chip Production - Bloomberg this sounds like a desperate decision.. Rhodes inferno must be wake-up call on global warming, says minister | Evening Standard Terrible stuff, not just for Brits! Mind you as some leave desperately, others arrive to go to their hotels in other parts of the island.. Israeli parliament passes key part of Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul plan (nbcnews.com) CS hatte 24 Milliarden Dollar offen bei Archegos - Inside Paradeplatz Crazy levels of specs Archegos Probe Reveals Full Extent of CS Failure (finews.asia) Spotify raises premium subscription price for millions - BBC News 1st price increase in 10years (and they cutting staff) IBM wants to build a 100,000-qubit quantum computer | MIT Technology Review IBM wants to build a 100,000-qubit quantum computer..The company wants to make large-scale quantum computers a reality within just 10 years Seth Golden on Twitter: "JPM Kolanovic & Dubravko 🔸The recent rise in market cap concentration has been the steepest on record 🔸Rising short interest for AI stocks ⚠️ 🔸Hedge for a potential reversal in Concentration. 🔸More concentrated than TMT-Dotcom Bubble $SPX $QQQ $SPY $NDX $NVDA $DIA https://t.co/icWHisImld" / Twitter Chinese firm Catl to develop huge Bolivian lithium deposit - BBC News supply coming @DBA - agricultural commodity index

Central banks direction ?.. Markets been pricing in for a while, an almost certain 25bps for both Fed and ECB this week, it'll be ALL about the language going forward..Goldman Sachs are still expecting the Bank of Japan will tweak YCC policy this week, just when inflation in Japan and the U.S is 'converging' French July manufactuting PMI weaker at 44.5 (exp 46), and German PMI even worse at 38.8! (expected 41) >>> The ECB is pretty stubborn in inflation , the same ECB that didn't see inflation coming while back...but you have to really wonder about these PMI numbers whether they terrible enough for Lagarde to blink... and whether raising rates further from here is a big mistake... (reminder though that rates peaking does not mean lower rates...imho) >>> 25bps SNB total sight deposits w.e. 21 July CHF 489.3 bn vs CHF 494.7 bn prior Spain elections : no clear winner, though general election results in Spain leave future of next government up in the air Looks like China is decoupling from US consulting firms. The problem is, without due diligence, companies can’t fulfil their legal requirements which will prevent them from further investments in/Thread Ukraine has recaptured 50% of the territory that Russia seized, Blinken says (really?) Congress is investigating Ford's new EV battery deal with China. US lawmakers are concerned the deal exploits a loophole in new federal EV tax credits Amsterdam is cracking down on cruise ships. The Dutch city is trying to limit tourism and pollution US Economic Soft Landing Hinges On Fed’s Tolerance Of Inflation - BBG, Federal Reserve To Signal It Is Not Done Yet As It Raises Interest Rates Again - FT U.S. 30y mortgage rates dropped for the first time in 4 weeks Russia has attacked Ukrainian grain terminals in the Danube (including in Reni, which lies 200 meters across Romania on the other bank of the river). Moscow is trying to cripple all the Black Sea options for Kyiv, leaving it completely depended on Eastern European overland routes/BBG China's Politburo: Domestic demand is insufficient, economic recovery will be 'tortuous' Markets : USD mixed, CROSSJPY's could well have peaked, #EURUSD peaked the other week on Knot's comments, CHF remains supreme, #JPY will move sharply either way going into/post BoJ, would almost favour a lower #EURJPY (ECB priced in, language softer, and eventually BoJ 'tweaks' YCC Equity markets : risk of peaking, AI FOMO rally showing signs of peaking, nothing dramatic, but based on valuations, weak China macro, recent FOMO AI rally, NQ rebalancing... it should be no surprise if markets sell-off 10pct form here, bulls should welcome this Crude trades on firm(er) side still Germany July Manufacturing PMI sets up dovish ECB | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Today we wrap up last week's action and note that the market could be in for some consolidation after the recent blistering run higher, with key themes in focus, especially AI after NVDA posted an ugly week and Microsoft backed out all of its share gains from the Copilot AI story last week. It reports tomorrow, as does the luxury giant LVMH after luxury stocks posted an ugly week. Elsewhere, Germany's horrific initial July Manufacturing PMI print of 38.8 begs the question on why the ECB is even hiking this week. We can likely expect even more dovish shift from Lagarde and company as growth woes dominate the focus. A EURUSD reversal risk in in play this week if 1.1000 fails. and a classic one.. just as mr market turned bearish usd....US Dollar Bearish Bets Hit Record High on Managers' Fed, Inflation Speculation - Bloomberg China’s Politburo Signals Property Easing, Debt Risk Plan - Bloomberg US 30-Year Mortgage Rates Dropped For The First Time in Four Weeks | FastReveal Asda and Morrisons paid zero corporation tax last year after buyouts (thetimes.co.uk) Private equity (not all) tends to load up on debt, pay high dividend and pay no taxes... and then you get water companies situation where they UNDER invested for decades.. General election results in Spain leave future of next government up in the air | Euronews Macron to give TV interview on subject of French riots and political priorities - The Local Ukraine has recaptured 50% of the territory that Russia seized, Blinken says | Reuters Congress is investigating Ford's new EV battery deal with China (qz.com) Theresa Fallon on Twitter: "Looks like China is decoupling from US consulting firms. The problem is, w/out due diligence, companies can’t fulfill their legal requirements which will prevent them from further investments in🇨🇳. “Clients are saying we can no longer work with American consulting firms,” said… https://t.co/ShVbZsYV6D" / Twitter Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Meltdown in US commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth is staggering. Cumulative C&I lending is -1.0% since the start of 2023 (red). Median growth by this point in the year is +4.5% (black), while 2022 was up +9.3% by this point (blue). Big US investment slump is underway... https://t.co/dHVQnnqxS8" / Twitter Opinion | Brexit, the Disaster No One Wants to Talk About - The New York Times (nytimes.com) it's actually quite strange that no party is even willing to talk about it ahead of elections next year, yet anyway.. Flagship Brexit trade deal with Pacific has ‘no major economic gains for UK’ | The Independent Amsterdam wants to ban cruise ships from docking in the city (qz.com) Bob Elliott on Twitter: "US risk free bonds will rally in the next downturn. The US is no ‘EM,’ even with a widening deficit. I’m always up for a good thought exercise, but it’s important to start with the mechanics before drawing conclusions about conditions. Thread. @hkuppy https://t.co/awulZYxql5" / Twitter Italy needs migration, admits Giorgia Meloni as she softens her stance (telegraph.co.uk) Not just Italy.. Greece fires: Corfu launches evacuations as Rhodes rescue flights begin - BBC News what a terrible situation EURJPY - below 155 area kex for the bears, similarly 138USDJPY

Olive oil prices hit all time highs, rice prices move on India and wheat on UKR/RU non deal, none of it is welcome.. Chinese professor says youth jobless rate might have hit 46.5%. Zhang Dandan adds 16m nonstudents 'lying flat' or relying on parents to tally "The latest batch of Chinese activity data and policy news suggest to us that this year’s "around 5%" growth target is very important to the authorities, and we are clearly in a policy easing cycle even though massive stimulus seems unlikely in the near term." - Goldman >> and strangely enough this morning : China's State Planner has released policies to boost consumption of electronics products Europe is hoarding $8 billion worth of Chinese solar panels.. Europe bought a record amount last year, 90% of which came from China How Dubai became ‘the new Geneva’ for Russian oil trade India (the world’s top rice exporter) just banned shipments of non-basmati rice. This is aimed to help curb domestic rice prices, which have increased nearly 10% in 2023, but threatens to boost prices for the rest of the world Ukraine warns that ships heading to Russian ports may be military targets, in a tit-for-tat response to a similar warning from Moscow Earlier this morning, Reuters ''sources'' report the BoJ is "leaning towards" keeping YCC unchanged next week, and that there is no consensus within the BoJ around how to phase out stimulus US Existing Home Sales fell 19% over the last year, the 22nd consecutive YoY decline. That's the longest down streak since 2007-2009 (few signs of picking up a little last few weeks, early days though) German house prices : sharpest decline since 2004, and number of new buildings starts is the lowest since 2007 UK's John Curtice : yesterday's results confirm Tories in “deep electoral trouble” with average drop in Tory support 21%, “In other words, taken as a piece, these three by election are consistent with the depressing message of the opinion polls that Tories a long way behind” U.S debt financing cost/Thread Tesla may cut prices again of its electric vehicles in ‘turbulent times,’ Musk Markets : CORRELATION trading models (which are the very vast majority of all trading these days, probably >80%, in reality underpin/valid further their own correlation, till the day when some sort of big human rationality (or big geo-political event etc) steps in, thus more boom and bust price action ever more likely in markets going forward, for years to come, it's when its obviously bearish or bullish that one should be taking notice -NQ might have overdone it with the 'rebalancing' story, NTFX and TSLA's guidance were not good at all, see what others big 7's do now, looks a bit over-cooked! -USDollars firmed up a bit with yields, ECB's Knot may well have put a top on EURUSD at 1.12+ and stronger US data (claims etc), CROSSJPY's highe rthis morning as it seems BoJ will stay put - beware of ''sources'' though, IF you are looking to play a YCC change, would only look to go via FX options (JPY calls), as mentioned yesterday, cash will remain wild.. -Crude WTI $75+ grinding higher, continue to think we heading 80+ Big market break with big week ahead | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Technical analysis Tesla Netflix TSM lower after earnings | Saxo Group (home.saxo) James Lavish on Twitter: "The US Treasury admits that the debt situation is 'unsustainable', even publishing it in a graph. Problem is, their graph (black line) is optimistic. The reality is that the problem likely soon goes parabolic (red line). It's just math. https://t.co/Mja6YFU05N" / Twitter Chinese professor says youth jobless rate might have hit 46.5% - Nikkei Asia The Chinese prof includes in her calc the 16m who are ‘lying flat’ or living w/ and being paid perhaps by parents. 1/2 Chinese professor says youth jobless rate might have hit 46.5% - Nikkei Asia India Bans Non-Basmati Rice Exports to Check Local Prices (yahoo.com) Wheat prices soar as Russia-Ukraine tensions stoke food crisis fears (cnbc.com) What was the Black Sea grain deal and why did it collapse? | Ukraine | The Guardian Russia Naval Blockade Risks Starving 6 Million People: Zelensky Aide (newsweek.com) Liquid Gold: Olive Oil Prices Soar « Euro Weekly News Thai Election Winner Lets Ally Lead Government Formation (yahoo.com) Sam Bankman-Fried is paying defense lawyers with FTX funds: lawsuit (cnbc.com) CNBC International on Twitter: "Spanish general election: There hasn't been a very good campaign, says Tacho Rufino of University of Seville https://t.co/k467o6H9kh" / Twitter Kenyan anti tax hike protests subside as police clamp down | Reuters Why income inequality is growing at fastest rate among Asian Americans (cnbc.com) How Dubai became ‘the new Geneva’ for Russian oil trade - SWI swissinfo.ch Companies registered in the small Gulf state bought at least 39 million tonnes of Russian oil worth more than $17 billion (CHF14.6 billion) between January and April – around a third of the country’s exports declared to customs One East Pratt office tower in downtown Baltimore sells to MCB Real Estate - Baltimore Business Journal (bizjournals.com) office tower...much cheaper.. Iraq expels Swedish ambassador over planned Koran burning | Reuters Future of deep-sea mining hangs in balance as opposition grows | Deep-sea mining | The Guardian EU's latest energy security tactic: hoard Chinese solar panels (qz.com) ‘Catastrophic’ outlook for German construction adds to Olaf Scholz’s woes | Financial Times (ft.com) Glencore: Copper, zinc, lead and nickel output slides but trading profits to top £3bn - CityAM Housing Markets: Popping Real-Estate Bubbles Will Prove Painful - Bloomberg By-election results 2023: Votes and winners revealed in graphs and charts | The Independent Crispin Odey: the fall of a hedge fund maverick | FT Film - YouTube Coutts Farage decision is a blunder but it’s none of Sunak’s business (msn.com) France’s Zeitenwende (economist.com) Amsterdam bans cruise ships to limit visitors and curb pollution - BBC News Buy your pasta now !

Nasdaq losses steam amid mixed earnings results from Netflix and Tesla, TSMC reports first profit drop in 4 years as electronics demand slump continues, ALL about outlook for Q3 and Q4, both TSLA and Netflix disappointed there! >>> Jobless claims, existing home sales and more later on Japan lifts FY 2023 inflation outlook to 2.6%, above BOJ's target >>> setting BoJ up next week ??? When rates rise we have to reduce price of cars (as funding is more costly) - Musk... The US government interest payments on the Federal debt are now higher than the annual defense spending The S&P 500 is now 5% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022 SNP admits to felling 16 million trees to develop wind farms. Scottish Tory MSP Liam Kerr said figure would astonish the public and communities all over the country had cited concerns about the projects India's Tata chooses UK for $5 bln Jaguar Land Rover gigafactory Convicted Ponzi schemer granted clemency by Trump charged with new Ponzi scheme Markets : Value (quality balance-sheets) over growth again ???.. Equity consensus bullish sentiment has climbed to its highest level since Jan 2022 JPY focus going into BoJ meeting >>> buy a few JPY calls seems the trade NQ slightly off, huge run up in some of these names, no need to elaborate much, AI etc and the SPX7, but we'll keep sayin git is ALL about guidance and Q3 and Q4, it is where NFLX and TSLA failed last night.. Crude and commods firm still, usd weakness helping too, Very interesting levels in XAG and Gold too, quietly grinding higher.. Tesla and Netflix chill market sentiment | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) great podcast as usual Global Market Quick Take: Europe – July 20, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Japan lifts FY 2023 inflation outlook to 2.6%, above BOJ's target (kyodonews.net) Australia jobs jump again, heaping pressure on RBA | Reuters Stronger data, RBA can flip-flop again.. China Ramps Up Yuan Support With Fixing, Borrowing Measure Tweak - Bloomberg Nasdaq losses steam as Netflix and Tesla’s earnings results paint a mixed picture | CMC Markets TSMC earnings report Q2 2023 (cnbc.com) Apple’s market cap briefly shot up by $60 billion on AI news (qz.com) Norway is fining Meta $100,000 per day for illegal advertising (qz.com) Farage claims documents show Coutts closed his accounts for political reasons (cityam.com) Liz Webster on Twitter: "Indian newspaper says, “The UK seems a country in accelerated terminal decline. Long been a fading power with outsized place on global stage. But, like a boulder gathering speed as it rolls down a slope, even that trajectory has speeded up after #Brexit.” https://t.co/NHl8VuGRvH" / Twitter US Households Are Running Out Of Savings - Christophe Barraud (christophe-barraud.com) excellent stuff from CB and there is this to come US Student Loan Repayments: Study Finds $500 Hit to Monthly Budgets - Bloomberg Biden widens war on junk fees, says US consumers tired of being treated as 'suckers' | Reuters Indian Gold Miner Soars to 15-Year High After Asset-Buying Spree - Bloomberg India's Tata chooses UK for $5 bln Jaguar Land Rover gigafactory | Reuters Ponzi schemer granted clemency by Trump charged with fraud (cnbc.com) France considers increasing alcohol taxes to combat binge drinking - The Local USDJPY and EURJPY (blue) >> which one would you short ?...

EURO trade weighted-index on all time highs (which could begin to be an issue, perhaps not a surprise Knot talked 'dovish' yesterday) BOJ's Ueda: Still some distance to sustainably hit 2% inflation target, JPY weakened Trump notified he is target in DOJ’s Jan. 6 investigation UK's Brexit..all gone so smoothly last few years...and now :.."We have a shortage of workers. We need to ease visa rules for overseas builders, carpenters and people working in the fishing industry." >>> UK CPI slowed more than expected, which is great news for UK builders, real-estate etc, plenty of upside in this sector ! Switzerland wants to bring the talks with the European Union to a successful conclusion, Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis said on Tuesday at a meeting in Brussels with Maros Sefcovic, the European Commissioner in charge of Swiss-EU relations S&P 500 to 5,400 by end of 2024? Ed Yardeni thinks so! This year the French tax office has announced that property-owners have to complete an extra tax declaration. From registering on the website to the rules for second-home owners BlackRock made a climate pledge. Then it appointed a Saudi oil executive to its board "Slowing goods inflation is freeing up cash for consumers, and helping overall spending remain steady." - Wells Fargo Janet Yellen Consumed Psychedelic Mushrooms In China: Report Markets : The SDEX, which is a measure of long put SPY demand, is at an all time low. DowJones up 1% for 7th straight day, which is longest winning streak in nearly 2years, strong big banks earnings report and Ch.Schwab/KRE, regionals continue to rally.. >>> Netflix, IBM and TSLA fans will be up till after the close today for earnings SPX500 - all the way back (chart below) The trade-weighted Euro is hitting new all-time-highs (EER-41 BBG) >>> which may well become and issue sooner or later - again. USDTRY all time highs again 27 lev, overall in FXLAND yesterday crossjpy's bounced higher as Ueda appears to be in no hurry German yields were a little softer on Knot yesterday (inflation plateauing), Ueda in Japan also came in with dovish comments (JPY weakened), US sales didn't really move much UST's, although yields a little softer on overall signs of 'lower inflation, imported Chinese deflation' etc and finally this morning, 2y UK yields down about 25bps after inflation data, back below 5% - good news! Crude WTI $75, seems well on its way to 80+ European natural gas prices fall as traders weigh rising storage levels and increased flows from top producer Norway S&P 500 forecast: Ed Yardeni sees another 20% upside (invezz.com) NZ Inflation Slows Less Than Expected on Sticky Domestic Prices (yahoo.com) Surging Lira (TRY/USD) Liquidity Overwhelms Turkey Central Bank Tightening - Bloomberg BOJ's Ueda: Still some distance to sustainably hit 2% inflation target (msn.com) US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen may have eaten 'hallucinogenic' mushrooms on China visit | ITV News Russia says decision not to extend Black Sea grain deal is final | Russia | The Guardian BlackRock made a climate pledge. Then it appointed a Saudi oil executive to its board (msn.com) >>> milk the ESG wave of flows, plenty of underperformance and juicy commissions...and back to normal again..classic, follow the money ! Visa rules eased for building and fishing industry - BBC News Brexiters, 2016: "We must stop foreigners stealing all our jobs." Brexiters, 2023: "We have a shortage of workers. We need to ease visa rules for overseas builders, carpenters and people working in the fishing industry." Conclusion: Brexit has failed. Trump notified he is target in DOJ’s Jan. 6 investigation | The Hill Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Diversified funds can’t buy more tech giants – many of largest mutual fund firms running into limits in how much more big tech stocks they can purchase w/o running afoul of “diversification” rules. Combined mkt cap of 6 Big Tech comps has jumped to 57% of total Nasdaq 100 mkt… https://t.co/tNtLflkT2F" / Twitter French town to register dog DNA to cut mess left on streets - The Local >>> Pet owners in southern France will have to start cleaning up after their dogs, if they want to avoid being singled out and fined via one city's experimental new dog DNA database Britons would vote to rejoin the EU | YouGov Shameless lies back in 2016 did the damage though Jaguar Land Rover-owner to spend £4bn on UK battery factory - BBC News some good news though there ! and this is also very good Goods now crossing Channel at pre-Brexit speed, says tunnel chief (thetimes.co.uk) London New Home Sales at Lowest Since 2012 as Mortgage Loan Rates Weigh - Bloomberg Hardly a surprise with rates up here ! Foreign minister confirms Swiss willingness to reach EU deal - SWI swissinfo.ch Krise im Immo-Markt Schweiz: Gehypter Vermittler Konkurs - Inside Paradeplatz leverage, debt, later comers to the high end game... AT&T stock sinks to 30-year-low after WSJ toxic lead cable story (qz.com) not everything goes up French property tax declaration - your questions answered - The Local This year the French tax office has announced that property-owners have to complete an extra tax declaration. From registering on the website to the rules for second-home owners, we answer your questions on this. Gender discrimination: the first Swiss woman in cantonal parliament - SWI swissinfo.ch 1960! Homebuilders confidence is up again as demand for new construction continues (yahoo.com) SPX500 - all the way back!

Russia pulls out of Ukraine grain deal, in potential blow to global food supplies Record-breaking 52.2°C temperature hit China on Sunday, stoking fears of drought Credit Suisse inquiry will keep files secret for 50 years...why ? RBA minutes reveal board almost hiked rates, warning issued about economy growth Outgoing RBA governor Phil Lowe has spelled out the potential catastrophe Australians face if the central bank gets its interest rate calls wrong Latest BofA Survey: Stock allocations have hit a 7-month high. 68% expect a soft landing vs 21% expecting a hard landing Russia Steps up economic war with west, seizing assets of big corp, seizures of Danone, Carlsberg’s operations sound a warning shot to Western companies looking to exit Russia ECB’s Knot: Looks like core inflation has plateaued - Optimistic to see inflation Hitting 2% in 2024 - We'll need to hike in July - More hikes shifts balance of risks toward too much - hikes beyond July oossible, not certain (similar to Visco) >>> even the most hawkish members aren't pushing for a Sep hike (for now anyway) After freezing electricity prices in 2023, France is starting to catch up with the rest of the continent, lifting tariffs by ~10% from August >>> French inflation next ? Better news (less bad!) for UK consumers as annual grocery inflation begins to fall ( down by 1.6% to 14.9%) Markets : Wheat prices on radars, after Russia pulled out of UKR grain deal USDollar remains under the cosh, Knot's comments worth keeping in mind though!, with recent EURUSD rally (EURJPY lower worth consideration still) and weaker EU economic surprises, perhaps no wonder the most hawkish ECB member doesn't sound all that hawkish. EURCHF 0.9650 still no love, CHFJPY powering ahead again last few days Equity markets, broadly speaking higher, DAX hasn't really mad any real advance for a while though Crude holding up Grain deal 'has been terminated,' Russia says | CNN Russia targets key Ukraine Black Sea port of Odesa, a day after halting grain export deal | AP News Interest rates, inflation: RBA board considered rate hike in July | Herald Sun Samantha LaDuc on Twitter: "US corporate earnings & stock market returns Tech's the only large cap sector that has outperformed SPY the last 4 years on a price basis (117 vs 51%). Markets have been unwilling to pay as much for cyclical improvements in profitability (Energy, Materials) then they have for… https://t.co/TFN9QvecAg" / Twitter Goldman Sachs cuts odds of a U.S. recession in the next year (cnbc.com) Evergrande: Crisis-hit Chinese property giant reveals $81bn loss - BBC News Credit Suisse inquiry will keep files secret for 50 years | Reuters That is just ridiculous.. Müssen CS-Leute 20 Prozent Lohnkürzung akzeptieren? - Inside Paradeplatz Ford cuts F-150 Lightning prices, taking the cheapest model under $50,000 - The Verge Record-breaking 52.2°C temperature hit China on Sunday, stoking fears of drought | Euronews Extreme heatwave live: Italy facing ‘one of the most intense heatwaves ever’ as temperatures near records (theguardian.com) Waldbrand bei Bitsch (VS) - Der Wind bleibt das Sorgenkind - News - SRF Yes it is the real name of the town ! Les tarifs de l'électricité vont augmenter de 10 % au 1er août | Les Echos Commonwealth Games 2026: is the Australia sporting event going ahead - Victoria cancels plans to host (yahoo.com) prices out of control, sorry we won't do it In defence of landlords, by the Bank of England (cityam.com) How electronic 'noses' help sniff out forest fires in Germany - The Local UK grocery inflation continues downward trajectory -Kantar | Reuters better news! Stagnant Britain Needs Growth If It Wants to Be a Rich Country - Bloomberg yes, the 'empire' is long gone EURCHF - still no love