French election, volatile few weeks ahead : OAT's weaker, Macron's election gamble triggering anger and chaos in his party (and others) . Republican leader talked about making an alliance with Le Pen (eventually denied), there were rumours of Macron resigning (denied), clearly a LOT going underneath, it's all about alliances! >>> but what a gamble Macron has taken, not lost on the most senior EU officials in Paris & Brussels.. >>> BUND vs OAT spread 10y is what the market is keeping an eye on ! EURUSD - been consolidating for 18months, will a confirmed move to the right in France trigger a sharp EURO fall ? possibly >>>>point is if you need to hedge, hedge now (spot and vols super attractive) EU to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese EVs, US Weighs More Limits on China’s Access to Chips Needed for AI Pimco expects more US regional bank failures as the "real wave of distress is just starting" Bernie Sanders wants to subpoena Novo Nordisk over high Ozempic and Wegovy prices. Novo Nordisk said a subpoena is unnecessary because the company has cooperated with all of the senator's requests C hina’s consumer inflation remained stable in May, while the decline in producer prices showed signs of easing, indicating sluggish demand amid a prolonged property downturn in the world’s second-largest economy Russell 2000 / S&P 500 keeps plunging to new cycle lows ... ratio now back to where it was in April 2001, Growth vs Value , Megacaps vs Smallcaps, pretty amazing, Ai and AAPL doing the job, #KRE underperforming SPX by the largest margin ever, etc and concentration of risk getting even more pronounced #NFIB Small business optimism improved in May to best level this year NatGas back to highest prices since Nov FOMC Meeting: All eyes on Federal Reserve chief Powell today ( msn.com ) France 10-Year Government Bond Yield - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News ( tradingeconomics.com ) huge French govt debt beginning to matter, rating agencies will be all over this - warnings coming in Moody's issues France credit rating warning over snap elections - SWI swissinfo.ch US small business sentiment up in May, but looming election clouds outlook ( msn.com ) China’s consumer inflation steady, factory prices dip in May ( msn.com ) EU to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese EVs, FT reports ( msn.com ) US Weighs More Limits on China’s Access to Chips Needed for AI ( msn.com ) Consumer Optimism About Stocks Hits Three-Year High, NY Fed Survey Shows - Bloomberg Législatives 2024 : Jordan Bardella annonce un "accord" entre le RN et LR avec "plusieurs dizaines de députés" - France Bleu France's conservative leader: Want to form "alliance" with Le Pen's National Rally - SWI swissinfo.ch France needs clarity around budget strategy after snap election, says ECB's Villeroy | Reuters Most Private Equity Investors Fear Cash Is Stuck in Zombie Funds - Bloomberg Labour’s Rachel Reeves decries ‘14 years of political chaos’ in Tory manifesto response | Politics News | Sky News Rishi Sunak went without ‘lots of things’ including Sky TV as a child | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian yeuhh Apple's AI reveal at WWDC boosts stock 6% to all-time high ( qz.com ) Pimco Warns Of More Regional Bank Failures On Property Pain ( fa-mag.com ) Bernie Sanders eyes Novo Nordisk subpoena over Ozempic and Wegovy prices ( qz.com ) Swiss parliament backs plan to deport rejected Eritrean refugees - SWI swissinfo.ch Ex-Judge Says Hong Kong «Becoming a Totalitarian State» ( finews.asia ) Could Roaring Kitty face more SEC scrutiny this time around? – The Armchair Trader EURUSD - been consolidating for 18months, will a confirmed move to the right in France trigger a sharp EURO fall ? possibly, point is if you need to hedge, hedge now

This week, the European Union is expected to reveal provisional tariff rates for Chinese electric vehicles U.S CPI expectations for tomorrow (below), market focused on disinflation process, so markets more prone to react to disappointing/higher inflation data, with equity markets sitting on ATH's, dot plots, guidance all will be scrutinised as usual, about 2 cuts in sight for 2024, Powell likely to balance and stick to that view overall Israel latest : Blinken on a 3day tour in ME, asking leaders to press Hama for a cease-fire and pushing Netanyahu to embrace a deal, UN Security Council backs Israel-Hamas ceasefire plan #USDMXN was up 10% or so last week, ''most popular carry trade of the last 2years'' ..came unstuck , overblown narrative with 'onshoring' probably, these do not tend to happen on their own so do watch out if 'other carries' get challenged.. >>> bottom line politics do move markets, EU elections tame reaction so far, the real deal comes late June/early July with France and UK Danish offshore wind hit with price increase of EUR 6bn: ”There’s not a penny to be made from this " NZ Government to reverse oil and gas exploration ban France :  Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is seen garnering 34% of voter intentions in the first round of upcoming French legislative elections , compared with 19% for President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party, according to a poll - Bloomberg *The left-leaning grouping that includes France Unbowed, the Communists, Socialists and Greens would get 22%, the survey by Toluna Harris Interactive for Challenges, M6 and RTL said on Monday #TSLA CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package unlikely to receive shareholder approval warns Bernstein #marketconcentration S&P 500's Top 10 Stocks now account for an all-time high 35% of the whole SPX500 US buys 3 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve...as expected! 5 Insights From June’s Upcoming FOMC Interest Rate Decision | Seeking Alpha US buys 3 million barrels of oil for Strategic Petroleum Reserve | Reuters Yup around low $70-75 it's cheap.. Technical analysis EURUSD GBPUSD EURGBP hit by heavy selling | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) COT: Brent long cut to ten-year low; Metals left exposed to end of week slump | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) US CPI and Fed Previews: Delays, but Dovish | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) EU is expected to unveil tariff plans for Chinese EVs this week ( cnbc.com ) Share buyback rush approaches 23 years in 5 months, supporting stock prices - Japan Keizai Shimbun ( nikkei.com ) France's Macron leaning towards backing von der Leyen as EU chief, sources say | Reuters UK unemployment rate rises to 4.4% as labour market cools, but wage growth sticky – business live | Business | The Guardian Apple WWDC: Tim Cook introduces new AI system 'Apple Intelligence' ( qz.com ) Danish offshore wind hit with price increase of EUR 6bn: ”There’s not a penny to be made from this" ( energywatch.com ) Government to reverse oil and gas exploration ban | Beehive.govt.nz Paul Johnson on X: "There isn’t £40bn a year to be had from reducing interest paid on reserves at Bank of England. Not even half that. Can’t “fund” tens of billions of tax cuts like this. We don’t want a rerun of September 2022" / X this can be 'discussed' in all countries, including U.S.. watch those banking share prices Benjamin Leruth on X: "I've been thinking a lot about Macron's decision to call for snap elections, and the consequences it may have on French and European politics, and I think I've cracked the code. https://t.co/dPdrb1xdxL " / X All about France, why now etc Roger McNamee on X: "There is a real opportunity for journalists to get to the bottom of FB’s coverup of the actions that began with Cambridge Analytica and led to interference in 2016 election. Kudos to @jason_kint for staying on top of this. Helpful explanatory thread." / X Keller-Busse schlägt CS-Bankern mitten ins Gesicht – Inside Paradeplatz The world’s rules-based order is cracking ( economist.com ) Human-rights lawyers are trying to save laws meant to tame violent rulers #WTI crude won't go lower

Week ahead : EU digesting election results, Earthquake in France, the center holds in Europe though, FOMC and BoJ meeting, U.S and Chinese inflation data, G7 summit in Bari coming up, EU-China trade war and usual raft of CB speakers >>>> GOLD got hit on China news and strong NFP Friday, Equity markets in europe could well have a reaction lower, you'd think EURO might suffer a little going forward too, sell rallies in EURO (EURGBP breaking down a multi year support around 0.8500 area) China’s central bank didn’t buy any gold last month , ending a massive buying spree that had run for 18 months after the precious metal surged to a record high OPEC+ Plan Turns Hedge Funds Least Bullish on Crude in a Decade Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund , which owned approximately 0.98% of $TSLA  shares worth $7.72 billion at the end of 2023, is voting against Tesla CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package Gold is getting harder to find as miners struggle to excavate more , World Gold Council says Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time U.S. Added 272K Jobs in May, Blowing Past Estimates; Bitcoin Pulls Back From 2-Month High ( yahoo.com ) EU elections: What the European results and far-right surge tells us ( bbc.com ) Far-right parties won big in European Parliament elections yesterday ( qz.com ) Explainer-What's at stake in Macron's shock snap election call? ( msn.com ) Belgian PM De Croo announces resignation after heavy election loss | Euronews EU vote in Germany sees far-right AfD in second place – DW – 06/09/2024 Italy's PM Meloni solidifies top spot in EU vote -exit poll ( msn.com ) Election 2024: Reform UK will overtake Tories in polls, Ipsos boss predicts ( msn.com ) ITV News on X: "‘I’m going to stop you now. This is ridiculous’ Tory chair Richard Holden repeatedly refuses to deny his candidate selection was a stitch-up The senior Conservative was very keen to talk about comments made on schools by Labour's Emily Thornberry https://t.co/bSVCuXblXH " / X ( twitter.com ) CH - Referendums on 9 June: See all the results at a glance - Blick Narendra Modi sworn in for third term as prime minister of India | India | The Guardian Narrow win, lost grip on hard majority Mexico ruling party wins lower house super-majority but falls short in Senate | Reuters Lost super majority Poll: Joe Biden, Donald Trump tied nationally, battleground states ( thehill.com ) China takes aim at EU’s planes and farmers as trade war brews – POLITICO Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time | World News | Sky News Benny Gantz, man in the middle squeezed out by Israel's Netanyahu ( msn.com ) Hedge Funds Turn Least Bullish on Crude in a Decade on OPEC+ Plan - Bloomberg Apple’s WWDC, Elon Musk’s Tesla payday, tech earnings: Markets this week ( qz.com ) Palantir CEO Alex Karp talks AI and the company's 'crucial role' in war ( yahoo.com ) China's central bank paused gold purchases in May after 18 months of buying ( zawya.com ) China bigger than UK...but there you go... Royal Mint reports huge spike in gold sales after election was called as investors look to keep their cash safe | This is Money Gold miners struggle with excavating more, says World Gold Council ( cnbc.com ) Palladium not written off the road yet, miners say - MINING.COM World hits streak of record temperatures as UN warns of 'climate hell' | Reuters Sudan could soon have 10 million internally displaced people, UN agency says | Reuters #eurgbp - should help #GBPCH gain some strength again too

As expected, ECB as expected, joined BoC, SNB, Riksbnak and cut rates, while raising inflation forecast for 2024/2025 (ruling out Jul & Sep cut), Lagarde said she couldn’t confirm a “dialing-back phase” was under way, 2-3mos of waiting for a move either way in data India election ; election were widely wrong, foreign policy likely to be mor e measured and BJP did worse in states with the most devisive politics China’s exports grow more than expected in May, up by 7.6% JPM : Growth rate of global economy accelerates to fastest in a year during May BofA : BHP's recent approach to Anglo American focused the market on the scarcity of high-quality copper assets and also the value of owning more copper production into an expected bull market. Energy transition (Decarb = increased metal intensity), emergent India demand, other "new" uses (AI, data centres). and supply shocks >>> bullish metal, calling it to $12,000/t ($5.44/lb). JPM DESK: “.. The stronger than expected ISM-Services print seemingly ended all recessionary/stagflationary commentary and put us back on firm Soft Landing/Goldilocks footing. An ‘everything rally’ ensued and now we are left at a new all-time high with another important catalyst coming on today. At this point, it feels like anything in the 150k – 200k range will be a non-event and that we need to see a print under 100k or over 300k before we trigger a narrative shift.” UBS upgraded its precious metal forecasts quite significantly this week >> Gold price up 20-30% to $2775 over 3years and Silver by 70% to $40 by 2026 BBG : The Fed can’t conquer inflation if Washington keeps on spending Jeffrey Gundlach: Never-ending debt-based scheme is pushing people to gold, Bitcoin South Africa opposition group claims Russia is funding Jacob Zuma’s party Former president’s upstart MK party accused of being extremely well financed RBA Can and Will Bring Down Inflation, Deputy Governor Says Bondholders sue Switzerland in US over Credit Suisse AT1s France to Supply Ukraine with Mirage-2000 Jets and Train Pilots #NVDA volumes yesterday as big as the next 20 stocks combined! >> also a sign ow volumes across board China’s plan to sell cheap EVs to the rest of the world China's exports grow more than expected in May, up by 7.6% ( cnbc.com ) RBA Can and Will Bring Down Inflation, Deputy Governor Says | Financial Post Bondholders Sue Switzerland in US Over Credit Suisse AT1s ( yahoo.com ) South Korea's Gold Bar Vending Machines Bring Investors to Convenience Stores - Bloomberg France to Supply Ukraine with Mirage-2000 Jets and Train Pilots ( kyivpost.com ) Jeffrey Gundlach: Never-ending debt-based scheme is pushing people to gold, Bitcoin | Kitco News 0d3865a6a27f46d18ea06fa4de99f39b ( spglobal.com ) Political education, political education, political education ... time to get serious - Alastair Campbell Indian elections 2024 - Opinion - Business Recorder ( brecorder.com ) South Africa opposition group claims Russia is funding Jacob Zuma’s party ( ft.com ) Swiss Inflation Matching 2024 High Erodes Case for SNB Rate Cut - SWI swissinfo.ch Switzerland and Italy sign tax rules for cross-border commuters   - SWI swissinfo.ch Raiffeisen: Probelauf mit 38-Stunden-Woche – Inside Paradeplatz Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference starts June 10: What to know ( qz.com ) Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI to face U.S. antitrust probe ( qz.com ) Tech mogul Mike Lynch cleared over multi-billion dollar sale of Autonomy to HP ( yahoo.com )

Like clockwork >>> slightly softer data (ISM non manuf was better yesterday mind), OIL declines and UST yields follow, and we are about to get a few rate cuts, what's not to enjoy for equity markets overall #NASDAQ #SPX hit new records Bank of Canada, as expected, cut to 4.75% - expect a further 50 to 75bps of cuts in the second half of the year #NVDA gas gained more than $1trn market cap over the last 30 trading days! bigger than #APPL >>> Nvidia volume yesterday was about as much as the next 10 most traded stocks combined together...totally insane really Barrick Gold, the world's 2nd largest gold producer, trades at a near 30% discount. This is the lowest Barrick has ever been relative to gold Powell likes to talk about the ratio of job openings per unemployed worker as an indicator of tight labor markets, it is now back to 2019 pre-COVID levels at around 1.25 /after been near 2 two years ago China’s hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market is revving up , with sales expected to hit 10,000 units this year, 50,000 units by 2025 and more than one million by 2035 UBS raises silver price forecasts, expects outperformance vs gold GS: A flood of cash from passive equity allocations will pour into the stock market in early July, setting up a continuing rally through the early summer. In addition, share prices should benefit from strong seasonal trends and rising engagement from retail investors Container freight rates from #China  are 3xhigher than in Jan from 2k to 6k, inflation data key ahead With a net inflow of $887 million yesterday, the U.S.-based Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their second-best day yet As it stands : total market cap.. 1. $MSFT  = $3.1 trn 2. $NVDA  = $3 trn 3. $AAPL  = $3 trn 4. $GOOG  = $2.1 trn 5. $AMZN  = $1.9 trn Factbox-What you need to know about the D-Day 80th anniversary ceremonies - SWI swissinfo.ch D-Day - Normandy Invasion, Facts & Significance | HISTORY brilliant pics, videos, history Yellen to warn of 'significant risks' from use of AI in finance ( msn.com ) Bank of Canada first to cut rates in G7, economist bets are on another in July ( yahoo.com ) Traders are desperate for copper deals and miners are cashing in - MINING.COM Goldman Sachs (GS) Sees Flood of Cash Fueling US Stock Market’s Summer Rally - Bloomberg Pierre-Yves Lombard: UHNWIs Seeking Unlisted Banks ( finews.asia ) #SAXO Nvidia passes Apple in market cap ( cnbc.com ) China Could Have a Million Hydrogen-Powered Vehicles on Its Roads by 2035 ( caixinglobal.com ) UBS raises silver price forecasts, expects outperformance vs gold ( msn.com ) Ukraine strikes into Russia with US weapons for first time, official says ( thehill.com ) Musk Gives Explanation for Why He Diverted Chips From Tesla to X - Bloomberg Far from convincing The FTC claims Facebook withheld information when buying Instagram and WhatsApp as it scrambles to rescue Meta break-up suit | Fortune but no-one seems to care, slap on the wrist and they move on Reform UK pulls to within two points of Tories in latest YouGov poll | Politics News | Sky News Starmer says Sunak broke ministerial code with £2,000 Labour tax claim | General election 2024 | The Guardian >>> Tory supporting paper Spectator has accused the Tories of using “nonsense figures” in relation to Rishi Sunak’s £2,000 Labour tax rise claim California Condo Prices Crash by Up to 40% in Some Areas - Newsweek Mexican woman mayor killed just hours after first female president elected | CNN Higher mushroom consumption is associated with a lower risk of cancer | ScienceDaily Old but real Snow in June on Scotland's mountains as Arctic air sweeps in ( bbc.com ) Mad..! 'Alpha Uno': Swiss fighter jets take off and land on motorway - SWI swissinfo.ch

China’s services sector expanded at its fastest pace since July last year , the Caixin survey showed, pointing to resilience that may alleviate concerns over the economy’s outlook after weak official figures 2y inflation expectations in the US are back to lowest since the start of the year >>> cooling down BoC meeting this afternoon, will they be the 1st of the G7 CB to cut in this cycle (25bp cut mostly priced in..) JOLTs indicated that Job Openings declined from 8.49 million in March to 8.06 million in April , compared to analyst consensus of 8.34 million >> cooling down The U.S manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled  / ISM, has been below 50 for about 18months.. GameStop whale 'Roaring Kitty' may be removed on E*Trade over anipulation concerns Elon Musk accused of selling $7.5 billion of Tesla stock before releasing disappointing sales data that plunged the share price to two-year low Crude oil is sharply lower this week after the OPEC+ meeting as the market appears to be well supplied + relatively soft/mild/slower macro economic data >>> time to refill the #SPR  Mr President   Equity markets mixed : lots going on underneath, decent profit taking in commods, energy, oil, transport, hotels, auto retailers, airlines, while mega caps, shipping doing well and NVDA makes new highs every day >>> #NVDA   Nvidia accounts for about 40% of the S&P 500's gain YTD, read that again... Morgan Stanley ditched its positive view on Mexican stocks  following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum, the incoming leftist leader who is expected to take office with stronger-than-expected legislative support Technical analysis metals facing larger corrections | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Morgan Stanley Cuts Mexico Stocks in ‘Unprecedented’ Moment ( yahoo.com ) Copper price falls through $10,000 as exchange inventories keep rising - MINING.COM JOLTs Job Openings Drop To 8.06 Million, Missing Analyst Expectations | FXEmpire   ‘The manufacturing side of the economy appears to have stalled,’ ISM says - MarketWatch China's robust services activity drives up employment, Caixin PMI shows ( msn.com ) Latest Oil Market News and Analysis for April 4 - Bloomberg Russian Oil Finds New Site for Controversial Cargo Switching - Bloomberg   Elon Musk accused of selling $7.5 billion of Tesla stock before releasing disappointing sales data that plunged the share price to two-year low ( yahoo.com ) GameStop Whale 'Roaring Kitty' May Be Removed on E*Trade Over Manipulation Concerns ( yahoo.com )  had to happen eventually...good game good game, gone too far Google's second leak reveals major privacy concerns ( qz.com ) 'We want to build everybody's AI chips': Intel CEO talks of regaining market share ( cnbc.com ) Gentlemen please! Sunak claims narrow win over Starmer in tetchy first UK general election TV debate  tedious stuff, the 2K tax bill stuff is rubbish fwiw Will Biden's new border measures be enough to change voters' minds? | AP News Donald Trump Says It Is 'Very Possible' He Will Imprison Political Opponents - Newsweek #WTI  shouldn't really go below $70 area - if it did, it probably isn't great news - economically speaking

#MXN - Mexican stocks fell over 6% on Monday and the peso closed at its weakest to the dollar since November after the country's ruling party scored a surprisingly strong election result and looked poised for a super-majority in Congress that markets fear might bring constitutional change and diminish checks and balances >>> #MXNJPY has been a huge trend/carry trade for a couple of years together with USDJPY (and other JPY crosses) - beware of a sudden 'forced' unwinding of some of those JPY shorts India election results 2024 live: Modi lead far narrower than expected in ‘moral loss’ for BJP Weaker U.S ISM, deeper contraction, markets now looking for 120-140K NFP Friday, data generally softer, consumers feeling the pain of #highforlonger (UST's and USD reacted swiftly, risk/equity mixed >>>> FWIW, think now we are entering a time where bad news will be bad news for risk, economy weakening at faster pace than inflation, risk is FED on hold for longer, bonds can run, clearly a few NASTY market moves going on in few major areas (MXN, Nifty etc), so beware of possibly ramification in other places, unwind of owned positions etc US diesel demand for March hits 26-year seasonal low, EIA says (weaker consumers), Atlanta Fed’s Q2 GDP Estimate is now just 1.8% down from 4.2% a few weeks ago… The Fed Quietly ‘Admits’ Gold Is Replacing The Dollar As Collapse ‘Fear’ Predicted To Trigger A $15.7 Trillion ETF Bitcoin Price Flip/Forbes article Sturdy central bank gold buying since 2009 and a rising gold price has grown the precious metal’s share of global international reserves to the detriment of fiat currencies. By the end of 2023 gold surpassed the euro and the next fiat currency to be challenged is the US dollar U.S May ISM manuf lower : 48.7 (est 49.5; prev 49.2) - Prices Paid: 57.0 (est 59.0; prev 60.9) - New Orders: 45.4 (est 49.4; prev 49.1) - Employment: 51.1 (est 48.5; prev 48.6) McKinsey estimates the energy demand from data centers will explode from 17GW in 2022 to 35GW by 2030, growth of 10% a year Japan owns $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries. As Japanese yields rise, the domestic market will attract dollars away from US debt. "Rising long-term interest rates in Japan put upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields:" - Apollo Maersk raises 2024 guidance on strong demand, Red Sea disruptions Swiss CPI pretty much in line and slightly below SNB forecasts, SNB should cut on 20th June after ECB this week Mexican peso, stocks tumble on fears of ruling coalition super-majority in Congress ( yahoo.com ) Modi’s alliance has early lead in India election vote count ( nbcnews.com ) India shares plunge as polls show Modi's mandate slipping | Reuters US diesel demand for March hits 26-year seasonal low, EIA says | Reuters South Korea suspends military pact with North over balloon barrage - Nikkei Asia NYSE Fixes Issue That Showed 99% Drops, Triggered Trading Halts ( yahoo.com ) Mastering covered calls: a strategic guide for Apple investors | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) US Banks’ Paper Losses on Some Securities Rose, FDIC Says ( yahoo.com ) The Fed Quietly ‘Admits’ Gold Is Replacing The Dollar As Collapse ‘Fear’ Predicted To Trigger A $15.7 Trillion ETF Bitcoin Price Flip ( forbes.com ) Gold Overtakes Euro in Global International Reserves | GoldSeek Maersk raises 2024 guidance on strong demand, Red Sea disruptions ( yahoo.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 It is pretty clear to me that global trade conflict is likely only to get worse, mainly because the two sides cannot even agree on what the disagreement is about. According to Bloomberg, China's Commerce Minister... https://t.co/tmi76Q7UPe " / X Australia orders Chinese-linked funds to sell rare-earth stakes in ‘national interest’ ( ft.com ) ''Got to stay long some rare earth ETF for the duration'' Chalets and flats in Swiss Alps are becoming a luxury - SWI swissinfo.ch The sure are Chateau de Villette is French manor home that costs $270,000 a week ( cnbc.com ) #USDJPY #MXNJPY #GBPJPY and #EURJPY - point is, it is all related, lets be careful on the carry trades out there #MXNJPY could be the trigger for more liquidation in other positions

Week ahead : JOLTS Tuesday, ECB rate decision on Thursday, U.S NFP Friday and PMI across globe are the main events, BoC rate decision on Wed, after over 10+ Fed speakers last week, there will be none this week as we are in 'blackout period' till FOMC next week >>> markets looked a little soft going into the final 2hours on Friday! a $6bn ''buy into the close'' pushed it all back to current levels + perhaps early news/rumours of some kind of deal in Israel-Gaza war emerged Israel-Gaza war live: Blinken urges Israel and Hamas to take ceasefire deal as fresh strikes reported in Rafah Modi's alliance to win big in India election, exit polls project Sheinbaum elected Mexico's first woman president The ANC’s total supremacy in South Africa is over OPEC+ agreed to extend its voluntary cuts to approx 2mio barrels a day through Q3, followed by gradual phase out over following 12mos China factory activity growth hits 2-year hig h, 51.7 in May from 51.4 in April and Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan being 'eroded', China says.  China has sold $102bn in UST securities over the past 12mos and bought a large amount of Gold (still got 700bn) U.S PCE, April core was as expected , no major surprises, kex going forward is moderating wage growth SNB : The natural rate of interest (r*) as a reference point for monetary policy - a practitioner's view Russia-China pipeline deal stalls Don't expect policy change, French PM says after debt downgrade. French far right has big lead over Macron ally ahead of EU vote: poll Key Engines of US Consumer Spending Are Losing Steam All at Once - most definitely a must monitor over the summer scenario.. Israel-Gaza war live: Blinken urges Israel and Hamas to take ceasefire deal as fresh strikes reported in Rafah ( msn.com ) Modi's alliance to win big in India election, exit polls project ( msn.com ) The ANC’s total supremacy in South Africa is over. Now a healthier future can begin | Alexis Akwagyiram | The Guardian Claudia Sheinbaum elected Mexico's first woman president - BBC News All politics is local: What the EU election is actually about in each country – POLITICO China factory activity growth hits 2-year high, private survey shows | The Straits Times Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan being 'eroded', China says ( msn.com ) China’s Tourists to Spend Nearly $1 Trillion on Holidays at Home - Bloomberg Russia-China pipeline deal stalls ( ft.com ) French far right has big lead over Macron ally ahead of EU vote: poll ( msn.com ) Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ MEETING: Another complex fudge. It extends the voluntary layer of the production cuts until 3Q 2024. After that, they can be gradually eased. It extends the official layer of the cuts until end-2025, but with revised baseline levels. Big win (again) for UAE 1/4" / X Key Engines of US Consumer Spending Are Losing Steam All at Once ( yahoo.com ) Don't expect policy change, French PM says after debt downgrade | Reuters OPEC nations agree to extend oil production cuts ( yahoo.com ) Why 10 Pricey Foods Are Even More Expensive Because of Climate Change - Business Insider Dell's profit, margin hurt by higher AI costs, shares slump ( yahoo.com ) Nvidia rewrites the laws of growth – The Irish Times World Leader in Artificial Intelligence Computing | NVIDIA video Boeing Will Need Years for Turnaround, Emirates’ Clark Predicts - Bloomberg Japan’s $62bn support for yen provides little reprieve ( ft.com ) Got to follow up with rate hikes..or else The natural rate of interest (r*) as a reference point for monetary policy - a practitioner's view ( snb.ch ) What Donald Trump Can No Longer Do as a Convicted Felon - Newsweek 'Civil War' Warning Issued by MAGA After Donald Trump Guilty Verdict - Newsweek What to know about Anthony Fauci's fiery hearing with House GOP ( thehill.com ) WTI crude, been super rangy, few calls for 75$ area to be tested

Key today is the European Inflation at 11:00 CET with the headline expected at 2.5% (regional surveys showing a possible upward surprise) and the US PCE Deflator at 14:30. The PCE is expected at 2.7% and the Core at 2.8% >>> equity risk been on defensive since the 'tailed' UST auctions, and few signs of pretty sticky inflation... and few sub optimal earnings reports particularly pushed DJ down this week #JGB Japan's 10-Year yield jumps to highest level in 13 years - 1.07%.. Donald Trump was convicted on all 34 counts in his hush-money trial. It is the first time that a former American president has been found guilty of a crime EU agrees tariffs on Russian, Belarusian grain imports from July SNB President Thomas Jordan "the possibility that r* may have increased represents an upward risk to this inflation outlook" When Albert Einstein met Charlie Chaplin in 1931, Einstein said, "What I admire most about your art is its universality." You don't say a word, yet the world understands you. "It's true. Chaplin replied, “But your glory is even greater.” The world admires you, when no one understands you. " Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending Pressure mounts on Beijing to allow renminbi to weaken. Markets push central bank for a weaker currency to reflect the gap in bond yields with the US >> good article from FT, on currency pressures facing by PBOC, negative RMB carry vs USD and other c urrencies, gives a rational for many to have a SHORT RMB Pfizergate plaintiff asks leaders to sack von der Leyen and Commission UK Treasury sells another £1.24 billion worth of NatWest shares as election threatens retail sale #Crude Speculators (ICE futures) have built the largest Brent Oil short position since 2020 EU agrees tariffs on Russian, Belarusian grain imports from July | Business and Economy News | Al Jazeera Tokyo Inflation Picks Up, Keeping BOJ on Track for Rate Hike - Bloomberg Robert Friedland on X: "Why #Copper Demand Is Skyrocketing https://t.co/NZ1iTMol32 " / X Trump guilty in hush money trial in New York ( cnbc.com ) Those hoping for him to be in prison will be disappointed, first time offender, no violent crime, suspect a fine and a slap on the wrist it will be, and/or a long time stuck on appeals, he wants to be on the road campaigning for the election one would think! Donald Trump convicted in New York hush money trial ( qz.com ) DowJones _ Dow Slumps 380 Points As Salesforce Stock Suffers Worst Loss Since 2008 ( msn.com ) >>>> y'day, Software got chopped, iShares Tech Software Sector ETF finished -6% India silver imports: India imports more silver in 4 months of 2024 than in all of 2023 - The Economic Times ( indiatimes.com ) Pfizergate plaintiff asks leaders to sack von der Leyen and Commission ( msn.com ) Biden allows Ukraine limited use of US arms to strike inside Russia, say US officials | Reuters The natural rate of interest (r*) as a reference point for monetary policy - a practitioner's view ( snb.ch ) Pressure mounts on Beijing to allow renminbi to weaken ( ft.com ) Bank of America CEO says U.S. consumers and businesses have turned cautious on spending ( msn.com ) How UBS is Setting Up Sergio Ermotti's Succession ( finews.asia ) Treasury sells £1.24bn more NatWest shares as election delays retail sale | Evening Standard Boeing gave the FAA a safety plan. But its 737 Max crisis isn't over ( qz.com ) Oil slips after Fed signals no rush to cut rates as key US inflation data awaited | Reuters Swedish government moves to cut tax on ISK savings accounts ( thelocal.se )

The market no longer expects two Fed rate cuts this year, with only 31 bps of reductions currently priced in - after election? >>> 7y USR auction last night ''tailed again'', JGS's leading duration yields higher (certainly not helping), didn't help risk into close, DOW back around its 50dma, though NVDA closed on highs, #VIX too low really, and/or perfect for #hedging needs! SNB chief sees ‘small upside risk’ for inflation forecast #HYG >>> Very important'A rising share of the $8.9tn high-grade US corporate bond market is at risk of being slashed to junk status, with rating agencies' expectations of downgrades exceeding upgrades for the first time since the end of 2021.' >>> BMO was dragged lower yesterday as they set aside reserves for bad loans.. China is pouring almost $50 billion into its chipmaking efforts despite U.S. sanctions . Six of China's largest state-owned banks are investing in a fund to boost the country's tech efforts Jim Chanos known for his bearish bets on Enron and Tesla , is facing a lawsuit for alleged misuse of company funds. Tesla CEO Elon Musk used the opportunity to hit back at one of his hardest critics Gaza war will last at least another seven months, says Israel 6 NATO countries are planning to build a 'drone wall' to defend themselves against Russia, reports say Financial conditions are significantly easier than when the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022:” Apollo’s Slok. Since Nov. 2023, when the FOMC started talking about cuts instead of hikes, the S&P 500 market cap is up $9 trillion Big Pharma steps up race for AI-discovered drugs - makes sense! Rosenberg : I keep hearing this has been an ‘earnings driven’ market. Sure. EPS +6% YoY and the S&P 500 is up +26%. A 3-point multiple expansion from Oct-May is a near-2 SD event and at ~21x on the fwd. P/E, this is the top decile overvalued equity markets of all time (IMHO - always tricky to judge with Mag7 involved..) GS : All-Time High Number of Passengers Passed Through TSA Checkpoints at US Airports Last Weekend More US high-grade borrowers at risk of downgrade as economy slows ( ft.com ) BMO misses Q2 profit expectations as it sets aside more money for bad loans - National | Globalnews.ca SNB-Chef sieht "kleines Aufwärtsrisiko" für Inflationsprognose ( msn.com ) Nick Timiraos on X: "NEWS: Beth Hammack, the former Goldman Sachs treasurer who has also chaired the Treasury's TBAC, will succeed Loretta Mester as president of the Cleveland Fed" / X Nick Timiraos on X: "Financial conditions update: In the U.S. mortgage market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (7.05% last week) has now been above 6.7% for the last 52 weeks. This hasn't happened since 2001, per @MBAMortgage. Purchase-mortgage activity has been (not surprisingly) in the dumps. https://t.co/LSbGEBBZ6L " / X Big Pharma steps up race for AI-discovered drugs - SWI swissinfo.ch Siemens Gamesa Cutting 4,100 Jobs in Wind Turbine Unit ( yahoo.com ) UBS raises silver prices forecast. Here's the new target By Investing.com Gaza war will last at least another seven months, says Israel ( msn.com ) Xi tells Arab leaders Gaza war can't 'continue indefinitely,' tops up aid - Nikkei Asia 6 NATO countries are planning to build a 'drone wall' to defend themselves against Russia, reports say ( msn.com ) Providing meaningful value to our fans, with a side of facts ( mcdonalds.com ) China invests $47.5 billion in chip fund amid U.S. sanctions ( qz.com ) IMF raises China's growth forecast on strong Q1 and policy measures ( cnbc.com ) Walgreens is cutting prices on 1,000 items for the summer ( qz.com ) Shrinkflation? Android Users Can Finally Turn Off All Annoying Ads & Get Faster Web Browsing… – Experts On Security Singapore Airlines deadly turbulence caused by changes in gravity ( qz.com ) Lisbon, a city dying from its own success | International | EL PAÍS English ( elpais.com ) Elon Musk Seizes Opportunity To Taunt Jim Chanos After Tesla Short-Seller Faces Lawsuit Over Alleged Fund Misuse ( msn.com ) Jamie Dimon is right. The number of U.S. public companies is plummeting—and that’s bad news for the democratic component of the economy ( msn.com ) Ozempic and weight loss drug shortages can now be tracked ( qz.com ) #GDX Gold miners - place your bets

S&P 500 hasn't declined by 2% or more for 317 consecutive trading days, the longest streak since a 351-day stretch that lasted from Sep 2016 through Feb 2018 >>> VIX sub 12 area, not a bad timing to purchase a 'hedge' >>> The VIX's historical average is around 19.50 dating back to its 1990's inception Rate cut expectations/pricing : earlier this year, markets priced in 6 Fed cuts, sic ECB cuts and 5 BoE cuts in 2024, now market pricing is 2 and a half cut by ECB and BoC, 1 and a half cut by the FED and BoE, and only half a cut by the RBA USD on track to snap 4months winning streak, vs not all but majors - keep an eye on techs, what's worked in FX land is carry (low vols etc), CROSSJPY's and CROSSCHF's higher,#GBPCHF #EURCHF - good long-term break technically ECB speakers:  The ECB shouldn’t rule out lowering borrowing costs in both June and July, Francois Villeroy de Galhau said — pushing back against colleagues uncomfortable with consecutive cuts. Philip Lane said the full effects of the central bank’s tightening have yet to be felt Shanghai lowered down payment ratios by 10% to a minimum of 20% for first-time buyers and 30% for second-home buyers Saxo : Technical Update - Metals finding support and rebounding: Gold, Silver, Platinum and Copper Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said a deadly strike on a displacement camp in Gaza's Rafah was a "tragic incident" that his government is "investigating" Technical analysis Gold Silver Platinum Copper rebounding | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Ole S Hansen on X: "Copper trades higher after it, just like silver, managed to hold a key level of support. The bounce being supported by China stepping up efforts to support its property market, as well as a softer doller supporting the general level of risk appetite" / X Deadly Rafah strike a 'tragic incident' - Netanyahu ( rte.ie ) Dollar Bulls Retreat as US Economic Print Cools, CFTC Data Show - Bloomberg Lame ducks Macron and Scholz will struggle to steer EU’s post-election agenda – POLITICO ECB could start cutting rates in June, ECB’s Rehn says - Business & Finance - Business Recorder ( brecorder.com ) Lyn Alden on X: "Here's an embedded version of the Broken Money video. -An analysis of the past, present, and future of money, and how technology impacts it over time. -How the current disequilibrium (transactions way faster than settlements) creates centralized and corrupted money clusters: https://t.co/TarwKOIaKu " / X This is really good video General election: Tories announce 'Triple Lock Plus' pension allowance - BBC News AI regulators in UK are 'under-resourced', warns science committee chair | ITV News UBS: China is a «Bright Spot» Amongst Asian Equities ( finews.asia ) It is now..it's rallied 20-30pct.. Swiss retailer Migros starts restructuring with 150 job losses - SWI swissinfo.ch How the Apple iPhone changed the world ( cnbc.com ) Judge's Jury Instructions Could Change Trump Trial Outcome: Jury Consultant ( newsweek.com ) Map Shows Florida Cities Break Heat Records Amid Surging Temperatures ( newsweek.com )

Memorial Day today, heading into month-end and its usual price action, OPEC+ meting (2nd June), Friday will bring EU HICP and U.S PCE, which will be important for both ECB (6th June meeting-25bps cut baked in) and FED's tone going into June 12th (nothing expected at this FOMC meeting - data been too strong, the likes of GS pushing back 1qst cut to Sep 2024 now), and plenty of CB speakers of course, just the 10 FED speakers alone this week Why Biden's almost 100% capital gains tax increase would crush the stock market US University of Michigan consumer sentiment  : positive May, headline index revised up to 69.1 from a preliminary reading around 67 ''with signs that the pickup in realized inflation is weighing on growth exp and willingness to make large purchases'' G-7 against China:  Chinese trade practices were criticized by G-7 finance chiefs, who threatened escalation Goldman: Moving the First Fed Cut Back to September "We Expect Monthly Core CPI Inflation to Run in the High 20s on Average and Core PCE in the Low 20s in the Run Up to the September Meeting and Think That This Would Be Enough for a Rate Cut" "A Japanese official conceded that chances of a breakthrough on free trade talks were low, stressing that “the most important thing is to make sure that tensions [in the region] will not escalate”." Goldman: Peak oil demand is still a decade away . We raise our 2030E demand forecast to 108.5 mb/d from 106 mb/d, expecting peak oil demand to occur by 2034E at c.110 mb/d followed by a long plateau till On the eve of next week’s EU election, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is inviting Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to team up and form a right-wing super-grouping that would be the second-biggest party bloc in the European Parliament South Africa's election could bring the biggest political shift since it became a democracy in 1994 ‘Ministers from Finland, Norway, Poland and the three Baltic states said at the weekend that they had discussed creating a co-ordinated system of drones along their borders with Russia to prevent smuggling and further provocations’ Tesla shareholders advised to reject Musk's $56 billion pay Tesla shareholders advised to reject Musk's $56 billion pay ( yahoo.com ) Asia-Pacific markets higher amid BOJ remarks and China industrial profits rise ( msn.com ) South Africa's election could bring the biggest political shift since it became a democracy in 1994 ( msn.com ) China warns South Korea against politicising trade before Japan talks ( ft.com ) Geely cracks top 10 in Q1 global auto sales in China carmaker first - Nikkei Asia Terry Smith: «Valuation is not as important as Quality» ( themarket.ch ) Post-earnings checklist for Nvidia Investors | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Le Pen to Meloni: Let’s team up and form EU Parliament’s No. 2 group – POLITICO How to devalue the dollar - by Noah Smith - Noahpinion As Treasury Secretary, Robert Lighthizer Would Help Trump Upend the Global Economy ( foreignpolicy.com ) ''' Whatever the reason, I know two people who don’t think a “strong” dollar is a good idea: Donald Trump and his main trade adviser, Robert Lighthizer. Trump is promising to weaken the dollar if he gets back into office, and Lighthizer appears to be the one who came up with the idea:'' Gold Prices Rise as the Dollar Slowly Dies | Mises Institute market will need a few failed UST auction or a BoJ/BoK/China interventions, both of which look unlikely, yet anyway... Six new large mines need to come online annually by 2050 to meet global copper demand - study - MINING.COM “A normal Honda Accord needs about 40 pounds of copper. The same battery electric Honda Accord needs almost 200 pounds of copper. Onshore wind turbines require about 10 tons of copper, and in offshore wind turbines , that amount can more than double,” said Adam Simon, co-author of the study. “We show in the paper that the amount of copper needed is essentially impossible for mining companies to produce.” Why Biden's almost 100% capital gains tax increase would crush the stock market ( yahoo.com ) Biden's almost 100% capital gains tax increase would crush the stock market - Analysts By Investing.com Something Just Flipped in the Credit Market for the First Time Since 2020 - Bloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingers ( yahoo.com ) Police clear occupied university building in Basel - SWI swissinfo.ch