The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is finalizing its long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Amazon in a move that could ultimately break up parts of the company, the wide-ranging lawsuit is expected as soon as August and will likely challenge a host of Amazon's business practices
Texas Instrument softer guidance, MSFT 'slowing revenue growth', Snap 'weaker guidance-forecast' too, LVMH 'aspirational clients are not shopping as much as they used to'', Google better growth cloud computing mentioned, RR raises forecast
MSFT say AI earnings to be gradual - probably close to reality ! it's huge, it's possibly game changer, but not everyone clearly is cashing in instantly...! a market that will have to deal with a lot of stuff that got priced in within 2months...
July 2023 euro area bank lending survey : Credit standards tightened further for all loan categories, demand for loans decreased strongly for both firms and households, Banks more concerned about non-performing loans, set to tighten lending conditions, Climate risks increasingly reflected in lending conditions and Credit standards tightening in line with exp in Q2, and is set to tighten again in Q3
Looking ahead to #FOMC meeting this week, another rate hike would put “proxy fed funds rate” (which takes forward guidance and balance sheet operations into account) much closer to mid-2000 peak/Thread
Puts tied to the S&P 500 dropping 5% in the next year have never cost less – BofA
Oz inflation slightly softer headline
Nigel Farage calls for entire NatWest board to go after boss quits over banking row, after The CEO of NatWest resigned in the middle of the night
US charges British billionaire Joe Lewis with insider trading
Dear ECB ..together with super weak PMI and Knot the other week (#eurusd top 1.12+) , Lagarde may well be close to 'flip-flopping'..."Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, was -8.0% in June, compared with -7.0% in May"
ECB deleveraging continues. Ahead of this weeks meeting, CenBank shrank its balance sheet by €18.6bn to €7,186.9bn as matured bonds were not replaced by new ones
US Same-Store Sales Down 0.4% Y/y in Week: Redbook - Bloomberg *Same-store sales, fell 0.4% in the July 22 week compared to a year earlier *MTD sales through July 22 fell 0.3%, that's pretty weak too (rate hikes biting, slowly but surely), Richmond Fed Manuf Index fell to -9 vs. -10 est. & -8 prior (rev down from -7) … new orders fell further into contraction; shipments declined, revenue ticked higher (but still in contraction); employment ticked higher into expansion
Markets :
-Equity markets 'up here' on very low volumes/loosing momentum perhaps..risk premium falls to levels not seen in more than 20 years , BEWARE (#timeforahedgingtrade), as quite a few 'guidance' are softer, MST on AI is potentially BIG news, and so is AMZN >> imnplied vols pretty low if ever you wanted a #hedge
-CROSSJPY's softer ahead of BoJ (now into position, run it ! #trailingstop and trade your gamma! etc.... FED and ECB ALL but priced in for long, EU data in particular but also US macro data softer...
-Markets look a little too quiet for my liking
July 2023 euro area bank lending survey (europa.eu) doesn't bode well for growth over next 6-12months - hiking cycle impacting where it should - eventually
(1) Post | Feed | LinkedIn good thread from El-Erian.... read comments below ! predicting recession on inversion is useless
USDJPY SUB 138jpy AND it will send a few alarm bells to the consensus short JPY postions out there
EURJPY getting there - I'm sure you can do a better chart, but we might be onto something here
