I respect Le Pen’s ideologies, says Barnier as he calls French borders ‘sieves’ Germany to tighten border controls after stabbing >>> Deputy federal chairman of the Federal Police Union: 'The crisis in Germany's security is a direct consequence of Schengen's ineffective policies. Schengen's inability to manage migration effectively has put Germany's safety at stake. Germany must realize the current failure of Schengen and either make a concerted effort to return to the current legal situation or terminate Schengen.’ Ukraine-Russia war latest: Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits nine Russian regions including Moscow Draghi’s report risks colliding with EU political reality >>> not the 'whatever it takes' from 2012 Yellen 'probably done' when Biden ends term, may meet Chinese counterpart soon >>> Who will clean this up ? By issuing nearly $2T of T-Bills, Janet Yellen succeeded in suppressing bond volatility in an election year, now - this paper has to be rolled over #duration Biggest US Banks’ Capital hike chopped in half in latest plan by Regulators >>> ''shaky Florida condo market'' and commercial real estate market the reason ? Falling interest rates in and of itself is positive especially positive for cyclical stocks, JPM is uncomfortable about the growth environment.  Its preferred trade in anticipation of Fed rate cuts is small vs. large caps MS leaves its baseline view of a 25bps Fed rate cut in Sept unchanged after the Aug employment data, labour market is cooling, but not perilously so, appears to be shared by FOMC members, as evident from the speeches of NY Fed President Williams and Fed Board Governor Waller Chinese refiners are reportedly purchasing approximately 16 million barrels of oil monthly to refill the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve , taking advantage of the current low oil prices, according to Bloomberg's insights from Energy Aspects EU top court rules Apple must pay €13bn in back taxes Car giants are being forced to confront some hard truths over the EV transition US election debate: Prosecutor Kamala Harris takes on angry Donald Trump in TV showdown ( yahoo.com ) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits nine Russian regions including Moscow ( msn.com ) I respect Le Pen’s ideologies, says Barnier as he calls French borders ‘sieves’ ( msn.com ) Israeli missile strike on Gaza safe zone 'kills and wounds dozens' | Evening Standard Draghi’s report risks colliding with EU political reality | Radio Schuman | Euronews Yellen 'probably done' when Biden ends term, may meet Chinese counterpart soon | Reuters Palantir Stock Rises. S&P 500 Addition Just One Piece of Good News. ( msn.com ) Apple's iPhone 16 event starts 'a historic week' for tech giant: analysts ( qz.com ) Phone 16 unveiled with AI-powered features « Euro Weekly News Apple loses EU court battle over 13 billion euro tax bill in Ireland ( msn.com ) Javier Blas on X: "COLUMN: The end of Big Oil's Big Bonanza. For the last 2½ years, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and BP have showered investors with multi-billion dollar buybacks. The pace of those share repurchases is now set to slowdown. #OOTT @Opinion https://t.co/f2OQnkezmP " / X Biggest US Banks’ Capital Hike Chopped in Half in Latest Plan by Regulators ( yahoo.com ) is this why ? Florida's condo market looks shaky. Could the bottom fall out? ( yahoo.com ) John Devaney on X: "There are tens of billions of defaulted or soon to default Class A and B office loans in Democrat run city's in the US such as San Fran, Philly, Chicago, Denver, St. Louis and parts of NYC This is as bad as the financial crisis in those cities. I know, as I'm a leading market https://t.co/hG5OBQ82KV " / X >>> Hopefully this won’t play out as badly as he thinks - huh Goldman Sachs to post $400M hit in third quarter over consumer business ( cnbc.com ) Battery maker Northvolt to cut costs, explore partnerships | Reuters tough place to be at the moment Autos: Car giants forced to confront hard truths over EV transition ( cnbc.com ) Russian investigation confirms Putin’s son was born in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Germany to tighten border controls after stabbing - BBC News The Swiss live in socio-economic bubbles - SWI swissinfo.ch

Chinese inflation data : producer prices fell by 1.8% yoy , more than expected, driving the disinflationary trend OIL MARKET: First day of the annual APPEC oil conference in Singapore, and the commentary so far is rather downbeat, disinflationary trend /Thread FED Sep meeting : the doves will have had a reasonably weak NFP to call for 50bps cut, payroll trend weakening, for now our best case is 3 or 4 25bps cut (as, risk is a 50bps cut is too 'hard landing') >>> overall big distribution of possible economic outcomes with U.S election and other geopolitics in months ahead, soft commodities, crude, China, USD-debt relationships + long positioning in equity markets overall >>> Week's focus is Wednesday U.S inflation data, this weel markets will look for a relief risk rally on soft ish U.S inflation Donald Trump Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on countries that conduct business in currency other than the US Dollar, adding a new pillar to his tariff platform US NFP : 4.2% , below consensus at 142k, together with downward revisions of 86k in prior two months, with more of the downgrade concentrated in June. U.S personal savings rate now down to 2.9%, lowest since June 2022, average over last 30years is 5.7%...persistent inflation taking its toll Eurozone Q2 GDP:  Eurozone economy grew less than exp in the Q2, rising 0.2% from the prev quarter – less than the 0.3% initially reported >>> Draghi to Unveil Plan Aimed at Curing EU’s Single Market Malaise Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid , on path to ‘soft landing’ with no meaningful layoffs Crypto sees weekly outflow of $600 billion, the 2nd largest weekly outflow in history >>>> just another leveraged/risk on/short vol play... The exact difference in electricity consumption between a ChatGPT query and a Google search can vary, but generally, ChatGPT searches use more energy due to the greater computational power involved in running large language models USDollar likely to do somewhat better over next few weeks, as liquidity diminishes, risk likely to 'struggle' overall >>>> 1.1200/00 EURUSD, 1.3200/50 CABLE tops, similarly AUDUSD 0.6800+ etc and lows in USDCHF around 0.8400 CHF, to get bullish USD would watch 50dmas, if they fail to hold like CABLE around 1.2950 area, then we can see a bigger counter move on USD Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris' Silicon Valley backers want more H-1B visas ( qz.com ) Kamala Harris faces crucial debate as polls hint at slipping momentum ( ft.com ) Donald Trump doubles down on his tariff ideas before New York business leaders ( yahoo.com ) Trump Pledges ‘100% Tariff’ for Countries That Shun Dollar - Bloomberg Trump, who has long embraced protectionist trade policies, said the dollar has been “under major siege” for 8yrs. China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa discussed de-dollarization at a summit last year. By contrast, Trump has said he wants the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency, a pledge he renewed at Saturday’s rally. US bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.2 billion in longest run of net outflows ( yahoo.com ) Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi cites BOJ's Ueda saying more rate hikes ahead | Forexlive ChatGPT's power consumption: ten times more than Google's | heise online Javier Blas on X: "OIL MARKET: First day of the annual APPEC oil conference in Singapore, and the commentary so far is rather downbeat. Oil traders Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor are all signaling very well supplied markets. Trafigura, more typically a bull, sees risk of $60-a-barrel "soon" | #OOTT" / X Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, heading toward 'soft landing' ( cnbc.com ) China's consumer prices rise in August, PPI stuck in deflation | Reuters Draghi to Unveil Plan Aimed at Curing EU’s Single Market Malaise ( yahoo.com ) Teen vaping hits 10-year low ( qz.com ) good trend Credit Suisse to Close Historic Branch in Zurich ( finews.asia )

NFP : USD going into payrolls weak vs most pairs (interesting USDCNH story below, BoJ stays on the hawkish side too - add lower CROSSJPY's in the mix ..), positioning is short USD/long bonds, so watch out if data is stronger (usual rules), and a HUGE risk in SOFR options, basically hedging for 50bps Fed cut in Sep, markets will price within seconds a 50bp cut, if data is well below 100K, watch out for revisions in previous months too 30y UST 3.99% - lowest since Dec 2023 France : Michel Barnier it is … and he will need all of his considerable calm, patience and political skills to form a government and construct a budget that will get through the French Parliament, hepromises respect for 'all political parties' On Monday : Chinese inflation data, APPL event wiht the iPhone 6 and THE first Harris / Trump debate August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says, US ISM Services Index Aug: 51.5 (est 51.4; prev 51.4) - Prices Paid: 57.3 (prev 57.0) . The all-important employment index remained in +ve territory at 50.2, only the third reading above 50 YTD, New Orders highest since May BMW will launch its first hydrogen-powered model in 2028 This is big news : China announces that they'll "give all Least Developed Countries (LDCs) having diplomatic relations with China, including 33 countries in Africa, zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines" Politico: "Zelenskyy suffers huge backlash as reshuffle triggers power-grab accusations . A parliamentary majority and martial law mean the Ukrainian president has the right to assemble his government as he sees fit, but the opposition is crying foul." Chinese banks have built a $100 billion short against the US dollar to prop up the yuan — and hedge funds are eager to get in on the trade #USDCNH Interest expense on US Federal debt is now at a record $3 billion PER DAY . This is TRIPLE the amount paid 10 years ago and has DOUBLED in just 2.5 years Germany is considering deporting migrants to Rwanda and using facilities there that were paid for by the UK Gasoline crack spreads signal that the single most important petroleum product market in the world is weakening quickly #crude >> OPEC+ has reached an agreement to pause its planned oil output hike for Oct-Nov, according to a delegate familiar with the talks The United States is close to providing Ukraine with JASSM long-range cruise missiles - US media #Walgreens what not to do in finance : $7. 5bn market cap, not a whole lot of cash, $33bn in debt.. . China’s Banks Build $100 Billion Short on US Dollar to Prop Up Yuan (CNY USD) - Bloomberg Whaoo - At the center of it all are transactions known as FX swaps. These have quietly become a key tool for state-run Chinese banks seeking to prop up the yuan during periods of outsized selling pressure. Fresh jobs data tests how deeply Fed will cut rates ahead of government payroll report ( yahoo.com ) OPEC+ Delays Oil Output Hike, Kicking the Can Down a Very Uphill Road - Bloomberg The future of Wealth Management: Navigating Technology and Maximizing Operational Efficiency | Saxo ( home.saxo ) register if interested - The future of Wealth Management: Navigating Technology and Maximizing Operational Efficiency Saxo invites you to an exclusive live event on Thursday, 12 September at 18:00, in collaboration with The Good Guys Company Oliver Rakau on X: "Yes, Germany's July IP report was horrendous, raises odds of a renewed GDP contraction in Q3, and will kindle recession talks. But the 2.4% m/m drop was heavily driven by the car sector's 8% plunge, where a strong bounce looks likely in August. https://t.co/bsvLByPfXD " / X A big Fed rate cut this month could be very dangerous, economist warns ( cnbc.com ) Toyota and BMW are joining forces to push through the hydrogen fuel cell headwinds ( msn.com ) Putin says Russia's favourite to win US election was Biden, now it's Harris - SWI swissinfo.ch Apparently.. Ukraine-Russia war: Zelensky’s latest cabinet reshuffle seeks to project strength ahead of a tough winter | The Independent US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for Ukraine; delivery to take months - SWI swissinfo.ch Michel Barnier named by Macron as new French PM - BBC News Three former Wirecard executives found personally liable for €140mn ( ft.com ) Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a Community with a Shared Future_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China ( fmprc.gov.cn ) U.S. rolls out new chip-related export controls as China makes industry advances ( cnbc.com ) Racism, misogyny, lies: how did X become so full of hatred? And is it ethical to keep using it? | X | The Guardian Hunter Biden enters surprise guilty plea to avoid tax trial ( telegraph.co.uk ) Qualcomm may be planning to buy ‘these parts’ of Intel’s chip design business ( msn.com ) USD is weak(er) overall, showing a few signs of breaking down vs a few pairs, add soft CROSSJPY's too in the mix still..

A lot being written about whether the Ai bubble is about to come off the rails >>> so you been asking : IMHO, no-one can deny we've had bubbly markets last 6months! play accordingly, beware weak seasonal factors + U.S election + momentum clearly switched/challenged on Ai stocks, crypto, EV, on the back of weaker global growth (OIL, China, commods and USD, 2speed economy etc) >>>> could FED surprise and shock with 50bp in Sep ? quite possibly if NFP comes in well below 100K say Crude : see below, big picture crazy plan from MBS since 2022, was played by the U.S and larger producers, the likes of Citi now sees $60 levels , though could go anywhere is Saudis go for shock therapy.. (Crude been weak for a while, China & Global slowdown, geopolitics have had little or no impact) Two-thirds of Fed districts report flat or declining activity, Beige Book says Markets : if you had a good run YTD, time to play defense !, FX , continue to sell CROSSJPY's, USDollar a sell vs JPY as BoJ talks hawkish, but USD probably stays bid vs others, carry trade unwind #stage2 ? US job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021 , with available positions falling to 7.67 million from 7.91 million the prior month. The figure was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists GS - "Our preferred near-term long is gold . It remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical + financial risks, with added support from imminent Fed rate cuts and ongoing EM CB buying," A Kamala Harris win and a Democratic sweep would give the biggest boost to the economy, Goldman Sachs says >>> Harris' middle-class tax credits would outweigh the decreased investment driven by higher corporate taxes, also in FT- Harris proposes 28& top capital gains tax in softening of Joe Biden's plan China Weighs Cutting Mortgage Rates:  on as much as $5.3 trillion of mortgages in two steps to lower borrowing costs for millions of families while mitigating the profit squeeze on its banking system MS “.. Tesla continues to surrender EV share coming to 14% globally , vs. 20% share in June and 17% share on a YTD basis.” [Jonas] Volvo Cars abandons 2030 EV-only target Fed's Daly says rate cuts needed to keep labor market healthy | Reuters Two-thirds of Fed districts report flat or declining activity, Beige Book says ( msn.com ) Goldman Sachs sees economic boost in Kamala Harris election win ( qz.com ) Investors should 'go for gold' as Fed rate cut looms, Goldman says ( yahoo.com ) Nvidia's record $279 billion loss in market value highlights fears of AI bubble collapse | TechSpot Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’ ( yahoo.com ) Technical analysis EuroStoxx50 DAX reversal indications | Saxo ( home.saxo ) China may cut rates on US$5.3tn mortgages | The Standard BOJ to Keep Raising Interest Rates If Price Data Allow, Board Member Says - Bloomberg The GOP Is Better Off With Kamala Harris in the White House - POLITICO Goldman Sachs sees biggest boost to US economy from Harris win | Reuters China's Xi pledges over $50 billion in financial aid to Africa to deepen ties ( cnbc.com ) Jesse Felder on X: ""The commodity secular bull market in the 2020s (11% annualized returns) just getting started as debt, deficits, demographics, reverse-globalization, AI & net zero policies all inflationary." https://t.co/UtQT6zio0u via @dailychartbook https://t.co/ZI1jxBwtXH " / X >>>> difficult to navigate short-term, ie next 3-6mos, but couldn't agree more, add exposure on dips Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ faces a quagmire: It can delay its 4Q output hike to defend prices >$75. But that doesn't resolve the big S/D 1H 2025 surplus. If OPEC+ wants to defend prices then, it would need to cut output , rather than delay hikes. Simply, the oil price Saudis want is too high." / X and Javier Blas on X: "Some statistics: Saudi oil production is today lower than 20 years ago. Oil prices, adjusted by inflation, are the same as in 2004. Saudi population has increased >50% in the last 20 years. #OOTT #SaudiArabia" / X looks like crude market could be drowning in oil over next 2years..! Volvo Cars abandons 2030 EV-only target | Reuters Crude

Softer crude prices again, YTD lows, and with global inventories at their lowest levels, demand must be weak! global growth concerns on the increase, weaker ISM Lack of market concern for geopolitics is astounding, Lybia, Russia-UKR, China-Taiwan, Israel, Turkey BRUICS, Iran attacks, red sea chaos etc VIX swings and NVDA leading overall markets 'sentiment-momentum', still/again chart here : United States Stock Market Index (USVIX) - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart ( tradingeconomics.com ) "More of our customers are resorting to credit cards for basic household needs and approximately 30% have at least one credit card that has reached its limit . See our latest survey, 25% of our customers surveyed noted they anticipated missing a bill payment in the next six months." - Dollar General, CEO August 29, 2024 China’s industrial strategy on ‘collision course’ with top German export industries >>> worrying, china overcapacity stats are huge , even anti dumping measures may not be enough!, more EU tariffs likely coming in October >> See G Magnus below Ueda reiterates that BOJ will lift rates if outlook realised >>> looks like top in USDJPY is nearer to 147-149JPY now then >>> The BOJ will face a new wave of inflationary pressures, Tankan survey showing inflation rate in Japan could rise to near 4% over the next 12mos Swiss inflation undershot expectations again, down to 1.1% in Aug. The SNB cut in Sep is baked in, question is do they do more than expected #DAX Germany's Stock Market hit record high despite the economy shrinking during the last quarter , peaked again at the end of August The latest data from the Treasury shows that the US government now pays out on average $3 billion in interest expenses per day, including weekends MORGAN STANLEY: “.. The S&P 500 appears to be trading out of sync with other markets; the next labor report may determine which is right ..” Nomura says Trump, if elected, would restart inflation and damage the economy: "We would expect inflation in 2025 to be notably higher by 0.75pp, a larger fiscal deficit, fewer fed rate cuts and slightly weaker growth." Goldman Sachs expects central banks will keep fleeing towards gold due to ‘fear for financial sanctions and US sovereign debt’ #XAUUSD The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (in contraction) for 21 out of the last 22 months . With data going back to 1948, that's only happened one other time: 1989-91 (Recession in 1990-91) This is the set-up as we start September, 2months to go to the U.S election, no need to add to risk here, stay cool, wait for better levels to re-enter, sell rallies. - Crude is on YTD lows, when everyone has been bullish, feels like recession and/or Trump win (lot more supply coming) but IMHO, key is global growth concerns — particularly following this week’s Chinese and US manufacturing data, NatGas falling  as if no-one needs it, Copper prices  trade 'recession' like - Bond prices falling a little as if inflation will come back - Gold is off its highs, Silver a little more, as if all these rate cuts been cancelled - Stocks topped out again, NVDA - feels a little a pretty wonky set-up ('''descelarating rate of earnigns grwoth'' last week's earnings, eventually got noticed - BTC struggling too, risk appetite seems to have gone >>> BTC just another liquidity driven risk on play - EV priced ''plunging'' - China 'oversupply war' with EU and U.S.. Chinese markets breaking down through worrying levels - Credit card defaults from small lenders hit RECORD high s. Comments from Dollar General CEO say it all - consumers tapped out (2speed economy in mind..) - Plenty of geopolitics across world, and French, German politics getting very complicated - 2weeks away from first FED cut - 200bps priced in and possibly a BoJ hiking in Dec - Carry trade will be challenged again Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown ( cnbc.com ) Nvidia Stocks Loses $280 Billion In MCap: Why the Chipmaker Saw its Worst Single Day Fall ( outlookbusiness.com ) Nvidia is flashing a sell signal and its huge rally marks the peak of a 40-year market cycle, veteran strategist says ( aol.com ) Asian chip stocks fall after Nvidia sell-off on Wall Street overnight ( cnbc.com ) China’s industrial strategy on ‘collision course’ with top German export industries – Euractiv George Magnus on X: "This is 1 scary chart if you're a Chinese economic policy maker (ie, Xi). You/he should be having a panic attack. Does he/do they care? Weakest broad monetary growth and collapsing M1 are pointing to slumping money GDP growth, and persistent deflationary pressures. 1/3 https://t.co/dlbXS68t5A " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "The fact that #crudeoil trades lower despite a sizeable Libyan supply disruption highlights a very weak market sentiment that increasingly carries the risk of Brent tumbling through key support in the USD 75 area https://t.co/KH3mVGkrHl " / X Ueda reiterates that BOJ will lift rates if outlook realised ( businesstimes.com.sg ) Intel's Dow status under threat as struggling chipmaker's shares plunge ( msn.com ) Bitcoin price won't hit $100,000 this year, experts say ( qz.com ) Trump Media stock falls to new post-merger lows ( qz.com ) Investors flock to venture capital trusts amid fears of looming tax hikes | This is Money French finance ministry's deficit warning adds to Macron's political headache - SWI swissinfo.ch

VW considers closing German factory for first time in 87-year history, some news just after weekend elections results in Germany Israel-Gaza ongoing tensions/Labour strikes and protest nationwide, UKR-RU new strikes inside Russia, has Putin changed his stance on peace talks?, China's military build up around Taiwan, U.S seizes Venezuelan President's plane, going to be a key few months ahead EU again imports more gas from Russia than from US The S&P 500 is now trading at 2.9x sales, nearly double the historical median and approaching its peak valuation from Q4 2021 At 5,648, the S&P 500 is now above every 2024 year-end price target from Wall Street strategists and 16% above the average target (4,861). And there's still 4 months to go China has come to a sudden stop in Manufacturing France's Macron accelerates efforts to break PM deadlock Goldman Slashes Copper Forecast on Softening Chinese Demand . Bank cuts copper estimate for 2025 by almost $5,000 a ton-BBG >>> Energy markets remains on edge on supply shortages. Sentiment was also supported by the prospect of easing monetary policy in the US Samsung's recent breakthrough in silver-based solid-state battery technology could not only transform the EV landscape , but also send shockwaves through the silver market USDollar hit supports around 1.1200 euro, 1.3200-50 area gbp, 0.8400 chf, 68+ oz etc all correcting again together with UST yields, 10's shoudl head 4+, seasonally speaking Sep/Oct are weak months, data staying firm, although ALL focus on NFP on Friday. Gold, Silver, XPT similar price action The far-right’s disturbing success in eastern Germany ( ft.com ) Terror in Ukraine as Russia makes bombshell war gains after Kursk invasion ( msn.com ) and apparently Putin Shifts Stance on Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Kursk Incursion - Newsweek Nicolas Maduro: US seizes Venezuela president’s airplane in the Dominican Republic | CNN Politics Japan protests against second territorial incursion by China in under a week | The Straits Times Netanyahu asks Israelis for 'forgiveness' over hostage deaths ( bbc.com ) Biden says Netanyahu not doing enough to secure hostage and ceasefire deal as he nears presenting a final proposal | CNN Politics France's Macron accelerates efforts to break PM deadlock - CNA ( channelnewsasia.com ) Goldman Slashes Copper Forecast on Softening Chinese Demand - Bloomberg Oil falls as OPEC reiterates commitment to production hikes — Breakwave Advisors Solid-State EV Batteries Could Drive Silver Demand: How to Invest - The Globe and Mail How how these sanctions working ?... EU again imports more gas from Russia than from US ( msn.com ) Finland to Ban Russians From Buying Property in Security Fix - Bloomberg How a Recent Major CRE Bond Failure Happened ( globest.com ) i nvestors in the AAA tranche of $308M debt backed by 1740 Broadway in midtown Manhattan received only 74% of their money. Creditors in the five lower groups were totally wiped out Bill Ackman Says X Ban Will Make Brazil an ‘Uninvestable Market’ ( yahoo.com ) VW considers closing German factory for first time in 87-year history ( yahoo.com ) Wegovy could prevent COVID-19 deaths: study ( qz.com ) Intel CEO's cost-cutting pitch to include Altera spin-out and retreat from German plant, source says ( yahoo.com ) Elon Musk's X banned in Brazil by Supreme Court ( qz.com ) Glencore on X: "At our AGM, 90% of shareholders backed our 2024-2026 Climate Action Transition Plan. Head of Sustainability Anna Krutikov explains the updates, changes, and next steps, supported by 4 key strategic pillars. Watch the full explanation below 🎥 https://t.co/F3uzBKBFYg " / X Swiss pensions and child allowances to increase from 2025 - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss tourist hotspot Zermatt considers day tripper fees - SWI swissinfo.ch

Today, focus is on (CET time) 11:00 EU HICP and 14:30 US PCE, and UMich later on, China markets rallying hard this morning , Tech s up most since June and Yuan strengthens to 15-month highs (USDCNH 7.07), DJ, DAX made new highs too Many commentators say the U.S economy is super strong, The U.S is running a historic deficit, never seen before outside of WW2, the GFC or Covid, if the U.S wasn't running this deficit and balance the budget, GDP would be very different (mid, this is not a U.S centric issue, similar stories in other parts of the world) China is considering allowing homeowners to refinance as much as $5.4 trillion in mortgages to lower borrowing costs for millions of families and boost consumption >>> note USDCNH on 16mos lows, is ALL or mostly about USD weakness really (long USDCNH was/is a BIG carry trades..) Equity markets rock'n roll in August, ALL or most about #VIX really, which exploded higher early August, and subsequently collapsed over last few weeks... chart here : United States Stock Market Index (USVIX) - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart ( tradingeconomics.com ) #TwoSpeedEconomy : Dollar General warns poorer US consumers are running out of money >>> ''While Wall St debates the rate of change of inflation, the average person lives its cumulative rise'' a company that never really missed, they just did, stock down 30%, brutal reaction from market Inflation in Germany fell to 1.9% in August , first time below 2% since March 2021 Saxo : Technical Update - Nvidia’s bullish trend in jeopardy after earnings – Key levels to watch! Intel Corp . is working with investment bankers to help navigate the most difficult period in its 56-year history Allstate Approved to Raise Home Insurance Rates by 34% in Wildfire-Prone California The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index dropped to -19 points in August from -17 points in July, to the lowest since the 2020 Pandemic . This is one of the 5 regional Fed surveys that have a high correlation with the nationwide ISM PMI manufacturing index data UK Police Warn Elon Musk of Legal Consequences How Russian hackers stole millions from U.S. investors/Video-CNBC report Technical analysis Nvidia lower after earnings bullish trend likely over | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 30 August 2024 | Saxo ( home.saxo ) CNY at a glance: Is the worst of China’s depreciation pressure over? | articles | ING Think The BIG surprise would by 6.50 area over next 12months #USDCNH , as markets unwind the HUGE carry trade in that pair, this would obviously influence other USD pairs and keep USD under pressure, which may actually be 'welcome' by new U.S administration The Bank of Japan is certain to raise rates further. The question is when ( cnbc.com ) >>> Dec 2024 is what markets have in sight Jesse Felder on X: ""THE peak in the AI frenzy is behind us. Unappreciated by the crowd, it occurred in late February/early March. As they always do, the worst left the party first — and dramatically so." -@Peter_Atwater https://t.co/iQHnCqLJTk https://t.co/8kXzFqSkrP " / X UK Police Warn Elon Musk of Legal Consequences ( msn.com ) UK PM warns of 'deep rot' at heart of country ( bignewsnetwork.com ) Putin's Trader: How Russian hackers stole millions from U.S. investors ( cnbc.com ) Interesting watch, if you haven't seen it already French President Macron says he was not aware of Telegram's Durov's arrival in France - SWI swissinfo.ch really... Gold in ‘stealth bull phase’ as it marks another fresh record-high settlement - MarketWatch Dollar General struggles as customers cut back on discretionary spending ( yahoo.com ) “I want to provide some additional context around what we’re seeing and hearing from our customers. The majority of them state that they feel worse off financially than they were six months ago as higher prices, softer employment levels and increased borrowing costs have negatively impacted low income consumer incentive. As a result, our core customer who contributes approximately 60% of our overall sales comes predominantly from households earning less than $35,000 annually >>>>>>>>> the two speed economy, economic headlines look good, things going ok, but underneath it isn't, top percentile distorting data and is not the same story for majority down below (to a certain extent it was ever so, probably, but it's on extremes now... If FED cuts aggressively they will help asset rip higher and benefit top percentile only, while poorest won't benefit much from any of it, since they have little or not assets, #TwoSpeedEconomy Yardeni still bullish Carl Quintanilla on X: "YARDENI: “.. many economists (and Jamie Dimon) have predicted that the consumer would soon be ‘tapped out’ .. “.. A robust jobs market, rising real wages, increased productivity, and record corporate profits and cash flow suggest the bull market has room to run.” @yardeni 🇺🇸 https://t.co/eaIffKLLPk " / X Best Buy beats earnings estimates as its sales decline stabilizes ( msn.com ) Musk beats suit over promoting Dogecoin ‘pyramid scheme’ ( yahoo.com ) really.. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger says he respects 'skepticism' from investors ( cnbc.com ) Dell earnings report Q2 2025 ( cnbc.com ) a beat Starlink's Brazilian assets blocked as Elon Musk's X faces suspension ( qz.com ) 24 hours of Trump: QAnon tributes, crude attacks and hawking pieces of his suit - The Washington Post Kamala Harris claps back at Trump’s question ‘is she Black?’ with 4-word retort in CNN interview - MEAWW News Harris defends border record, rips Trump for killing bipartisan bill ( cnbc.com ) Allstate to raise homeowners insurance rates ( yahoo.com )

Nvidia : huge number again, seems it '' failed to live up to investor hopes'', Why ? let's look into the microscope : ''hypergrowth and margins maybe topping out over next few quarters''.. . net profit margin moved down slightly to 55% in Q2 from a record 57% in Q1 (1st decline in its profit margin since Q2 2022), forecasts Q2 2025 marked the first quarter of decelerating revenue growth for #NVDA since forecast Q4 2023, and guided for further deceleration in later on next year, 'the smallest earnings beat over the past 6 quarters'' Super Micro Computer Inc.’s 10-K delay. The San Jose, California based-company’s shares plunged 19% after it said it will delay filing its annual financial disclosures and will need additional time to assess its internal controls Google has paid Apple around $120 billion since 2010 to be the default search engine on every iPhone, iPad, and Mac. According to Goldman Sachs, around $20 billion was paid just last year alone Fears of rise in UK capital gains tax trigger selling ‘frenzy’ . Wealth managers report upswing in activity as investors position themselves ahead of October Budget Kamala Harris proposes 25% tax on unrealized gains for high-net-worth individuals, risk that it can come into UK budget too (lacking details for now but plenty of talks) Nvidia beats second-quarter expectations on AI chip demand ( qz.com ) CNBCOvertime on X: "Nvidia reported a 122% revenue growth in its Q2 report, but don't expect the same in the next few years. Paul Hickey, co-founder of @bespokeinvest, explains why he thinks revenue could slow down and why you should look outside the Mag 7. $NVDA https://t.co/7C4Z4Jp44w " / X Dan Niles on X: "Following $NVDA’s results today, I thought it might be worthwhile to re-examine the current AI landscape both short-term and longer-term. I wrote on July 11th, “I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues" / X Fact Check: Posts Claim Harris Plans to Institute 25% Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains. Here's the Truth ( msn.com ) Fears of rise in UK capital gains tax trigger selling ‘frenzy’ ( ft.com ) Telegram CEO charged with allowing criminal activity by French prosecutors ( cnbc.com ) French Authorities Charge Telegram's Durov in Probe into Organised Crime on App ( chronicle.lu ) How can big data reduce shipping emissions? - Financial Times - Partner Content by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines ( ft.com ) Shinjiro Koizumi could be a top contender in Japan's leadership election ( cnbc.com ) Ukraine’s Bondholders Approve $20 Billion Debt Restructuring - Bloomberg Trump budget proposals would spike deficits 5 times more than Harris ( cnbc.com ) Gold should stay well bid in this scenario / USDollar under pressure still etc UK's Starmer warns October 30 budget will be 'painful' ( msn.com ) Preparing for the worst? Polish central bank becomes biggest buyer of gold | Euronews Super Micro shares slammed following delay in annual filing ( yahoo.com ) Mortgage rates keep falling. Homebuyers still aren't biting ( qz.com ) Schweiz: "Tages-Anzeiger" in der Krise – Leserzahlen und Werbeeinnahmen im Sinkflug — RT DE ( rtnewsde.com ) Bob Elliott on X: "Australia a case study in a central bank that has been behind the curve tackling their inflation problem. While it has come down from peak it's now stuck at 3-4%, led by a hot economy. Instead of tighter rate policy, the gov is using subsidies to bring down prices. Thread." / X

Heading into NVDA earnings after the bell tonight, it now accounts for a massive 6.5% of the S&P 500, a +/- $300bn move market cap is implied by vols, DJ made a slight new high again, SPX500 just under ATH's, markets sitting on highs on low volumes overall Hedge funds continue to cut exposure to tech / GS - lowest in years. Hedge Funds deleveraging Tech, Large-Caps, Cyclicals going underweight Mag-7 in Q3 and Hedge Funds re-leveraging Small-Caps, Energy, Utilities, Health Care in Q3 OZ CPI slightly higher at 3.5%T (exp 3.4%) Republican Donald Trump’s economic proposals would increase federal deficits by almost five times more over the next decade than those of Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, per two reports by the Penn Wharton Budget Model The BOJ’s basic stance “is that it will examine the impact of market developments and the July rate hike,” Himino (Dep Gov) The U.S Conference Board's consumer conf index improved to 103.3 in August and Durable Goods Orders for July were a very strong +9.9% the highest we’ve seen since May 2020 Meloni Seeks Budget cuts to fill Italy's €12 bn hole - Bloomberg *Coalition meeting on Friday will be first after summer break Mark Zuckerberg says White House ‘pressured’ Meta to ‘censor’ Covid-19 content Bank of America's Suttmeier "Hold on for $SPX  6,000+ by August 2025... 12 consecutive months of positive Y/Y returns point toward 6,150 by November 2025... (original April 2024 report)-Thread below Goldman: Businesses avoided reporting unauthorized immigrants to the unemployment insurance system , pushing down reported employment in last week’s benchmark revision. A proper count would have lowered the March 2024 employment level by -300K instead of -818K, so need for so many FED cuts.. The JPM Collar (JHEQX ) remains a big SPX price draw in the short term/B.Balan Stock Markets: Everyone's waiting for Nvidia ( cnbc.com ) Fed cuts may send $1 trillion FX ‘avalanche’ to China, Jen says ( msn.com ) USDollar/CNH...well off highs 7.30 to 7.10....6.50 next up medium term ? here is the story! >>> one could add this in the 'consensus CNH shorts' that was built together with short JPY last few years (carry trade - in other words..) Robert P. Balan on X: "The JPM Collar (JHEQX ) remains a big SPX price draw in the short term" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Nvidia, $NVDA, earnings are coming tomorrow. As we head into earnings, $NVDA now accounts for a massive 6.6% of the S&P 500. Since the ChatGPT launch in November 2022, the share has increased FIVEFOLD. To put this into perspective, Nvidia’s market cap was $290 billion before https://t.co/lebxqfKHOk " / X Trump budget proposals would spike deficits 5 times more than Harris ( cnbc.com ) BOJ Deputy Governor Sees Rate Hike Justified If Outlook Realized - Bloomberg Meloni Seeks Budget Cuts to Fill Italy’s €12 Billion Hole - Bloomberg Durable Goods Orders Increase Highest Since May 2020 ( yahoo.com ) Mark Zuckerberg says the Biden administration 'repeatedly pressured' Meta to censor COVID-19 posts ( qz.com ) Icahn Enterprises Declines 12% on Stock Sale Plans ( msn.com ) Goldman, BASF, Others in $20 Million Platinum, Palladium Price-Fixing Settlement ( usnews.com ) 10years later.. Seth Golden on X: "Bank of America's Suttmeier "Hold on for $SPX 6,000+ by August 2025... 12 consecutive months of positive Y/Y returns point toward 6,150 by November 2025... (original April 2024 report) "I may have underestimated the strength of this bull, and not considered markets ability to https://t.co/2fiYUtLdPV " / X Seth Golden on X: "Goldman Sachs: 📣Hedge Funds deleveraging Tech, Large-Caps, Cyclicals going underweight Mag-7 in Q3 📣Hedge Funds re-leveraging Small-Caps, Energy, Utilities, Health Care in Q3 📣Hedge Funds adding to AAPL $SPX $SPY $QQQ $UNH $IWM $RTY $XLE $AAPL https://t.co/In3diXmE8P " / X China to see biggest millionaire exodus in 2024 as many head to U.S. - Nikkei Asia

Macron rules out left-wing government for France, in communiqué Macron rejects a government led by the New Popular Front (NPF), unprecedented situation in the history of the 5th Republic..... and Very serious charges against Telegram's CEO Pavel Durov, see below >>> all social media platform CEO's watching with high interest.....risk they could eventually face a similar 'forensic test' in future ? Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online >>> translation, he fears a Trump return... Middle East tensions on highs and UKR/RU firing another huge wave of strikes Soft landing euphoria from most economists and strategists reached new highs over the last 48hours, while we all agree a few cuts are coming, no doubt, maybe 100bps over 12months, absolutely, but IMHO it will be hard to deliver the 200bps of cuts already priced in together with an expected 12-15% increase in earnings over the next 12months... FED's Daly agreed with the chairman that ‘the time to adjust policy is upon us’, she also said that it’s too early to know the pace of coming rate cuts - pushing back on questions around current market pricing – hasn’t seen signs of ‘real’ weakness in labour markets. Markets pricing and pundit euphoria about a soft landing reached a fevered pitch following JP's JH speech on Friday. While a cut is the next step, it is very unlikely that 200bps of cuts and mid-double digit earnings growth will come together in the next 12months Canada to slap 100% import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles over ‘unfair' competition SPX500/QQQ pretty low volumes, losing a little momentum after the huge rally in Aug and ahead of previous ATH's, DJ made a new ATH yesterday though, markets steady ahead of NVDA will will decide the fate of everything Wednesday evening! >>> big picture, if/when the FED is cutting, it is because of slower growth, thus should reinforce rotation out of hyper growth stories-QQQ and more value based stories/solid dividend and balance-sheets names, the more they have to cut, the slower growth signals it will be and thus accentuate this big rotation Russia-Ukraine war latest: At least four people killed as Russia hits Ukraine with another wave of strikes - BBC News Nightmare scenario in Middle East appears to be fading - but great danger lies ahead ( msn.com ) Fed’s Daly Agrees With Powell View That It’s Time to Cut Rates ( yahoo.com ) Vitor Constâncio on X: "In Jackson Hole, Chair Powell announced the start of a new cycle of rate cuts, putting an end to the inflation episode since 2021. It is, therefore, time to draw some lessons for economics, economists and monetary policy. 1/" / X Exclusive: Top US general says risk of broader war eases a bit after Israel-Hezbollah exchange | Reuters How low do mortgage rates need to go to bring homebuyers back? – My Blog ( reventureapp.blog ) Canada to slap 100% import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles over ‘unfair’ competition – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth ( nbcdfw.com ) Macron rules out left-wing government for France, political deadlock continues ( yahoo.com ) >>> in communiqué Macron rejects a government led by the New Popular Front (NPF), unprecedented situation in the history of the 5th Republic.. Macron rejects left’s PM candidate, keeping governance talks stalled – POLITICO And 2024-08-26 - CP TELEGRAM .pdf ( justice.fr ) >>> These are very serious charges. The fact that the investigation is taking place under JUNALCO (investigating judges, the highest court in France), shows its highest level. House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 on X: "Mark Zuckerberg just admitted three things: 1. Biden-Harris Admin "pressured" Facebook to censor Americans. 2. Facebook censored Americans. 3. Facebook throttled the Hunter Biden laptop story. Big win for free speech. https://t.co/ALlbZd9l6K " / X Wealth Managers in Risk-On Mode After Jackson Hole Speech ( finews.asia ) Everybody seems to agree and have the same view, which is when one has to be vigilant, if sentiment changes, data more key than ever The US is ready with a Gold revaluation mechanism too ( fxstreet.com ) Nicely put together Bob Elliott on X: "Markets pricing and pundit euphoria about a soft landing reached a fevered pitch following JP's JH speech on Friday. While a cut is the next step, it is very unlikely that 200bps of cuts and mid-double digit earnings growth will come together in the next 12m. Thread." / X How centuries of Swiss emigrants left their mark on the US - SWI swissinfo.ch

FED : ''dovish pivot okay'', Powell said 'The time has come for cuts', confirming rate cuts coming, not when and not by how much, data dependent etc (all this is with 100bps priced in for 2024 already), and SPX on ATH's, credit spread pretty much at record tight, inflation around 2.5% and employment levels considered at maximum for most of the last 50years >>> asset boom most likely (unless we move to a risk of a bigger slowdown) sacrificing government finance/debt, throwing out most of the 'normal' FED reaction function BoJ's Ueda was slightly hawkish, could very well be another hike coming in Dec >>> #USDJPY remains a sell on any rallies Arrest of Telegram founder/CEO (who has a multitude of citizenships) sparks debate about free speech and criminal activity online. UKR/RU (Durov's arrest-consequences , energy assets bombed again and again) & Middle East tensions remain as Israel and Hezbollah 'trade messages urging against escalation' after airstrike The NVDA print is hyped as “the most important tech earnings in years” ...(Dan Ives) Investors are jittery. Few of the big tech companies have been able to demonstrate enormous demand from paying customers for AI-powered services, which raises the question of how long they’ll keep pouring money into the tech—most obviously, Nvidia’s chips China slams U.S. for adding firms to export control list over alleged support for Russian military US consumer serious delinquency rates (90+ days) in credit card debt have risen to 10.9%, the highest since 2011 Macron meets French party leaders to try to name a prime minister : what a mess Nestle : a case of too many share buy backs near ATH's with higher debt Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board Powell’s  speech  at Jackson Hole was dovish, emphasizing cooling labor markets and downside risks. He did not weigh in on the pace or increment of rate cuts, insisting these decisions will depend on incoming data BlackRock's Rick Rieder: The Fed should slash rates by 50 basis points ( yahoo.com ) BOJ to hike in December after Ueda's speech - Citi ( msn.com ) China slams U.S. for placing some Chinese firms on export control list ( cnbc.com ) Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "GS sees Q2 GDP (s) at 2.5% July PCE +0.13% m/m, +2.52% y/y Core PCE +0.13% m/m, +2.64% y/y https://t.co/1xe2WaYxrC " / X Nvidia second-quarter earnings are the biggest stock market event of the year, analyst says ( qz.com ) After months on the back foot, Ukraine's forces invaded its invader, pulling off a spectacular counterpunch against Russia. Here's how it happened: Ten days that turned the tables on Russia ( ft.com ) Pavel Durov: Arrest of Telegram founder sparks debate about free speech and criminal activity online | CNN Business (1) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "After Telegram founder Pavel Durov was arrested, Russian social media share the following thoughts, rumors and panic moods: ◾️Allegedly, several days ago Durov asked for a meeting with Putin in Baku and was refused. ◾️Telegram is the main information network, communications https://t.co/uK3OZOePE1 " / X Middle East latest: Israel and Hezbollah 'trade messages urging against escalation' after airstrike | World News | Sky News Second-largest diamond ever uncovered in Botswana ( qz.com ) Trump tries to reset his campaign after brutal month ( msn.com ) Macron meets French party leaders to try to name a prime minister ( msn.com ) It's a messy affair ! Ford cancels 3-row electric SUV, delays opening of new plant and full-size EV pickup ( yahoo.com ) Why the price of chocolate's key ingredient skyrocketed in 2024 ( cnbc.com ) Nestle CEO Mark Schneider steps down ( qz.com ) a great example of ridiculous sharebuybacks near all time highs + adding debts at the wrong time !! Lynch’s superyacht sank because of ultra-tall mast, says rescue skipper ( ft.com ) EURUSD - could we be breaking up ?

Powell’s Jackson Hole speeches tend to lift the stock market — but when they don’t, the drop is a doozy >>> The market has priced 6 rate cuts from the Fed between now and March 2025, SPX500 didn't quite reach ATH's yesterday, bearish candle if it follow suits today it will matter, together with possible USD strength, 'could' spoil the current bullish-nothing can go wrong sentiment - see USDJPY below Plenty of speakers lined up for later on in the day, beware of possible vol moment BOJ’s Ueda signals readiness to raise rates if growth, inflation on track Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has suggested the UK could rejoin the EU in “the medium to long term” , in a departure from Labour’s stance on Brexit S&P PMIs:  Flash PMIs were mixed, with a tick-up in headline services, but a decline in manufacturing Kennedy withdraws candidacy in Arizona on eve of big announcement Ghost jobs: What the rise in fake job listings says about the current job market >>> been going on for a long time! we were told back in the day in investment banking to always interview folks...for those dream jobs... it was simply to get client's info ''market knowledge'.. some famous U.S house were excellent at it.. BMW overtakes Tesla in European EV sales for first time, report says Sticker price at some colleges is now nearly $100,000 a year, ‘a worrisome trend,’ Swiss food multinational Nestlé has surprisingly appointed a new CEO. Laurent Freixe will take over from Mark Schneider on September 1 >>> as often discussed years ago, expensive share buy backs/higher debt not a good strategy.. Powell’s Jackson Hole speeches tend to lift the stock market — but when they don’t, the drop is a doozy - MarketWatch Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session ( cnbc.com ) BOJ’s Ueda signals readiness to raise rates if growth, inflation on track - Business & Finance - Business Recorder ( brecorder.com ) RFK Jr. withdraws from Arizona ballot on eve of election announcement ( axios.com ) Four takeaways from Kamala Harris's DNC speech - BBC News Shapiro, White House respond to Trump "highly overrated Jewish Governor" comment ( axios.com ) Modi in Ukraine: Diplomatic tightrope for Indian PM as he visits Kyiv after Moscow - BBC News China tells its citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible | The Times of Israel Artificial intelligence is losing hype ( economist.com ) How ‘green’ electricity from wood harms the planet — and people ( nature.com ) London mayor Sadiq Khan hints at Brexit disconnect with Keir Starmer | The Independent If you want some growth...help reduce volatile energy prices and reduce inflation overall... The gold storage business is booming ( qz.com ) Jesse Felder on X: "'Since 2008 or so, the underperformance of the miners versus the gold price has been very, very bad. It will take more than a quarter or two of expanding margins for the industry to regain investors' trust.' https://t.co/CZIsjMSMDK https://t.co/Y4sAqCVNQA " / X World's second-largest mined diamond found in Botswana ( telegraph.co.uk ) BMW overtakes Tesla in European EV sales for first time, report says ( yahoo.com ) Amazon must face D.C.'s antitrust lawsuit, appeals court rules ( yahoo.com ) Disney picks Morgan Stanley exec chairman to lead CEO search ( qz.com ) Nestlé appoints Laurent Freixe as new boss - SWI swissinfo.ch Financial Times on X: "This is the first such visit, made through a channel kept under wraps to avoid Chinese criticism, since Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te took office. https://t.co/imdAntCkGi https://t.co/HuzRalMTwt " / X Sticker price at some colleges is now nearly $100,000 a year ( cnbc.com ) Still time for some hols :-) The 10 best secret Mediterranean islands ( telegraph.co.uk ) #USDJPY do watch out fo a snap back if Powell isn't quite as dovish as the market has already priced in