ECB holds interest rates for first time in over a year, Lagarde sounded fairly dovish, on hold, data dependent, not ruling out anything and rate cuts weren't discussed, would be totally premature. Markets see the first ECB cut at Apr 2024 meeting. AMZN a very decent beat, cost cutting measures working, shares up 5% or so after hours, AAPL next week
ME tensions still dominate, though not escalating at mom, plenty of rumours about Hamas potentially leaving Gaza and moving to Lebanon, a lot of secret meetings taking place no doubt, whether this is actually feasible or not... Kremlin also adressed rumours that Putin had a heart attack, Israel slamed Russia for hosting Hamas delegation
US GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 QoQ annualized, way faster than +4.3% expected, growth mainly driven by private consumption and inventories. (so it 'may' not last). U.S. jobless claims rose slightly, remain in ultra-low territory though
Rishi Sunak vows to tackle 'dangers' around AI as landmark paper published
55 Things you need to know about Mike Johnson
Toymakers Hasbro and Mattel lowered their sales outlooks for the fourth quarter, amid a tough retail environment, almost all parts of the markets hit (expectations and valuations are so wrong!..)
Bailing out central banks. The QE programme hangover/FT
BofA's derivatives team refers to Hartnett: "...if SPX 4'200 can't hold with this level of bearishness then there may be imminent risks of credit event/hard landing". They like the SPX DEC 4025 put as a tail hedge.
U.S equity markets : amount of stocks below 200dma : SPX500 about 70%, Nasdaq comp 75%, Russel nearly 80% >>> is this enough bearishness to buy a bit in this dip ? or markets now sees some sort of blowout in junk spreads ?
GM EV losses, in fact Hertz car rental miss earnings and the CEO singles out one specific car brand as the cause, TSLA
Tokyo's core inflation unexpectedly higher again, BoJ in spotlight next Tuesday again! Tokyo CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.7% in Oct, exceeding market forecasts for a 2.5% gain
China and the US appear to restart military talks despite disputes over Taiwan and South China Sea
Markets :
200dma update, now broken/on weekly basis, while we remain below these levels, the market is likely to keep a cautious / sell rallies / hedge, reduce exposure on rallies. Nasdaq composite 200dma was around 12'775, SPX500 4230 area, NASDAQ100 needs to retake 14500-700 for bulls >>> see '50 cents's recap below too
ARKK chart below
USD firm, but no firmer this week, early focus next week with USDJPY/BoJ Tuesday
-UST's 10's - 5.0/5.25% will attract new buy and hold interest, though supply, new refunding data next week will clearly weigh on prices
Crude slightly higher ahead of weekend risk
Overall remain cautious, though markets now slowly coming to our valuation levels and opportunities coming our way for clients
IMHO...not entirely or partly true?.....a strong economy for sure, thanks to onshoring & higher government spending, on the back of much higher debt levels..not really sustainable...
crickey! n.45
For those who follow '50 cent', here it is Wall Street Vol Legend "50 Cent" Unveils His Top 2024 Trade With "Extraordinary Upside" | ZeroHedge
Rishi Sunak vows to tackle 'dangers' around AI as landmark paper published | Science & Tech News | Sky News >>> The government's first paper on AI's capabilities and risks comes ahead of a global safety summit at Bletchley Park, home of Britain's Second World War codebreakers, which will see other world leaders and tech bosses unite to discuss how the technology should be regulated
another senseless and tragic mass shooting
Legend
GM Scales Back EV Plans as Buyers Hesitate (msn.com) >>> Tesla lowered the price of EVs by so much GM & Ford have been forced to delay $10s of billions of investments
Siemens Energy shares slide 35% after company seeks support from German government (msn.com) tough market conditions!
Electricity prices ‘must rise by 70pc to pay for more wind farms’ (telegraph.co.uk) the trouble is the message from politicians to voters is that with green energy bills will be lower.. this was always sold as a lie.. badly managed, now folks are ''forced'' to think differently because of the cost of living..
ARKK - that low range holding - investors in those type of names, better hope duration doesn't selloff further (or many of these companies with no E and relying on debt will not survive, consolidations or more stock debt issuance etc)
