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US House Speaker passes bill to avert shutdown with Democratic support, no surprise, happens every time, It keeps federal agencies open at current spending levels until mid-January Headline CPI lower, good news, inflation is higher still but less fast.... and U.S CPI core is still 4% (easy part done, not only, but largely about energy cost) U.K. inflation fell sharply in October to 4.6% from 6.7% the previous month, hitting a two-year low, core is still 5.7% (from 6.1 in Sep) RRP : The amount of money that investors are parking at a major Federal Reserve facility dropped below $1 trillion for the first time in more than two year Non-financial companies in the S&P 500 have a combined $107.7 billion in debt coming due next year, with an average interest rate of 2.8%. Refinancing at current rates would add another $3.09 billion in collective interest expense: Calcbench report JPMorgan's David Kelly on CPI: It is notable that almost 90% of the 3.2% year-over-year increase in CPI for October came from rent, owners’ equivalent rent and auto insurance, categories that are all likely to see much lower inflation in the year ahead Glencore Plc will buy a majority stake in Teck Resources Ltd.’s coal business, ending a months-long saga that transfixed the mining industry and setting the stage for the commodity giant to exit the coal business itself China's industrial output grew 4.6% in Oct YoY, from the 4.5% Sep pace, PBOC said it was keeping the rate on 1.45 trillion yuan ($199.92 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.50% from the previous operation Japan’s economy slipped into a contraction in the third quarter, decreasing at an annual pace of 2.1% as consumption and investments shrank A union representing German train drivers says it is calling its members out on a 20-hour strike later this week as a rancorous round of pay negotiations with the country’s main rail operator gets under way Markets : Huge 'everything rally' mostly due to bad positioning, too many bears (VIX lower was always the tell recently..gammy buying etc), BoJ on hold, PBOC adding, Crude prices lower (ME tensions having no big impact there) and lower headline inflation (mostly expected..) SPX500 - chart -back in the previous higher trend >>>> all very similar in DAX (mentioned 11500+ lately as key, EU50stoxx, Dow, NASDAQ pretty near all time highs already! >>>> seasonality factors supporting/supported equity markets last couple of weeks, only questions is whether markets are not frontrunning this already and geeting a little ahead of themselves..! but overall wouldn not be shocked is positoning remain offside and the evrythign rally could well continue for a bit longer! UST 10's - chart - in yield terms 4.3-4.5% is the support USDollar took a decent beating, market positioning far too long USD ...still >>> look to perhaps sell CROSSJPY's which have rallied again on lower yields, a little 'strange' but weak JPN GDP data may well keep BoJ on sideline for as long as they can ! >>>> few charts below to keep things in pictures China's factory output, consumption beat forecasts but property still a drag on economy (msn.com) US House Speaker passes bill to avert shutdown with Democratic support - BBC News Japan's economy sinks into contraction as spending, investment decline (msn.com) Watch live view of Israel-Gaza border as IDF enters al-Shifa Hospital (msn.com) Fed Repo Facility Sinks Below $1 Trillion as Bills Stand Out (yahoo.com) The Treasury has issued roughly $1.76 trillion of bills on net, and that’s helped drive their interest rates above the offering yield on the US central bank facility — currently 5.30%. This deluge has also helped push up rates on other money-market assets like private repo. US Companies Opting to Refinance 2024 Debt Face Profit Hit as Higher Rates Bite - Bloomberg Venture Capital Shows Signs of a Performance Turnaround: BlackRock’s eFront (institutionalinvestor.com) Let's be all honest here, things will remain volatile one way or another, which bring opportunties, have room to increase risks on a decent dip !... : the views diverge amongst investors as well as Big Banks (MS vs GS view etc) Soft landing will be 'difficult,' says PE veteran (yahoo.com) Glencore Wins Teck Coal Business, Paving Way for Its Own Split (yahoo.com) Iceland volcano - live updates: Cracks appear in roads amid fears of imminent volcanic eruption | World News | Sky News Huh! pretty nasty stuff UK inflation falls by more than expected in October to 4.6%, lowest in two years (cnbc.com) Chelsea FC face new questions over how Roman Abramovich funded success | Roman Abramovich | The Guardian German union calls on train drivers to strike this week in a rancorous pay dispute (qz.com) SPX - going back to trend ? other indexes looking similar, most bombed out/rates sensitive sectors reacting in a more powerful way yesterday too EU50stoxx NASDAQ100 10's UST prices AUDUSD - FX been relatively boring, but we keep the view that USD topped around 1.3800CAD, 1.0500 EURO, 1.2100 GBP, USDCNH 7.3500 etc

U.S CPI ahead, where 0.1% up or down difference will keep every economists on the planet on alert for new news..There are some changes on how the U.S govt estimates health insurance costs, which could boost the number. U:S CPI expected to be 3.3% YoY (previous 3.7%), Fed speakers later on : Jefferson, Barr and Goolsbee ZEW : economic exp. for Germany have again increased, currenct assessment remains unchanged at low level, signs that economic weakness has 'bottomed out' Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt Stellantis offers buyouts to roughly half of U.S. salaried workers Gang says ICBC paid ransom over hack that disrupted US Treasury market Biden says Gaza hospitals must be protected UK's political reshuffle yet again U.S. Bank Lending declined for the first time in 13 years according to data from SocGen BoA FM survey : investors most overweight bons since the global financial crisis Exxon aims to become a top lithium producer for electric vehicles with Arkansas drill operation Markets : UST 10y techs : ''So far the US 10 year bounces perfectly on the bigger trend line that has been in place since the surge in rates started back in May. If this is the topping out of rates, we need to see more frustration...Watch the 50 day and the longer term trend line closely. We also ask ourselves if this is a bigger head and shoulders formation in the making? 4.5% is the line in the sand level to the downside.'' SPX500 : one amazing fact is that the SPX has not made a new all time high in 2023, if this fails to happen over next 6weeks, this would be the first time since 2012, The NASDAQ's domination over Small Caps has never been greater (the 7's really), USDJPY testing 1992 highs (went all the way to 160+ area - back in 1998 we hit 150 area before Mr Yen intervened) EURCHF bottomed out 0.9500 area - chart below (slight Zew improvement too, shoul help further upside) Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt (yahoo.com) Weekly market commentary | BlackRock Investment Institute AI: a mega force driving returns IMF on X: "Higher interest rates have exposed vulnerabilities in some banks, and many more would be at risk during a prolonged period of rate hikes. Read our new blog for more on how to avoid bad outcomes in the banking sector. #GFSR https://t.co/eVXG7PYYPI https://t.co/TQE1pfuNrk" / X (twitter.com) A lot of folks talkng about this research so there it is : UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession (cnbc.com) >>> Fed to cut 275bps in 2024 and a terminal rate of 1.25 by 2025... >>> clearly IF, massive if, inflation was to be nearer to 2%, rates would be very (too) high...so as always path to inflation is the key ( a lot of if's and but's in these view, which is not too dissimilar to the view of MS, against this you have the likes of GS going for only -1- cut in Q4 2024) Goldman Sachs says world economy to perform better than expected in 2024 (cnbc.com) BofA Survey: Investors Bullish on Bonds - Bloomberg Israel-Hamas war live updates: Biden says Gaza hospitals must be protected; Israeli military plans ‘major operations’ in north – NBC New York Does Israel have a road map for Gaza’s future? (ft.com) Stellantis offers buyouts to roughly half of U.S. salaried workers (msn.com) Novo Nordisk touts Wegovy's value for heart disease patients (fiercepharma.com) Exxon to produce lithium for electric vehicles in Arkansas (cnbc.com) British fintech Wise reports 234% jump in profit (cnbc.com) Gang says ICBC paid ransom over hack that disrupted US Treasury market | Reuters Talks on a landmark treaty to end global plastic pollution are advancing in Kenya's capital | AP News Moderate Tories Believe Rishi Sunak's Reshuffle Shows He Is Embracing The Centre Ground (politicshome.com) London politics LIVE: Rishi Sunak says new Cabinet makes 'strong and united team' as David Cameron returns in reshuffle | Evening Standard Hollywood's new union contracts to cost studios up to $600 million: Moody's (yahoo.com) EURCHF - bottomed out around 0.9500 area

China considers resuming purchases of Boeing's 737 Max aircraft when Xi, Biden meet this week, nothing like a friendly gesture ahead of a big high profile meeting The playbook for 2024 will be slower growth and market pricing in easier policy (GS and MS diff take, as in market), great week for the magnificent 7 last week, a great year in fact, and no need to remind everyone that they are making up 90% of the S&P move YTD, bar any real new news, set-up would appear to be bullish into year-end >>> debt ceiling issue, possibly debt downgrade and next up U.S CPI on Wednesday key for short-term sentiment (no auction this week) Moody's turns negative on US credit rating, draws Washington ire Moody’s tail Risk has Italy on edge before critical rating call. Country is rated one step above junk, with negative outlook. Assessment by Moody’s would be first since Meloni’s budget GOLDMAN: “The hard part of the inflation fight now looks over .. the heaviest blows from monetary and fiscal tightening are well behind us .. We expect the FOMC to .. cut in Q4 2024 once core PCE inflation falls below 2.5%. We then expect one 25bp cut per quarter until 2026Q2 ..” Uni Michigan survey of 12months inflation expectation rose from 4.2% to 4.4% (expected was lower to 4%) China’s ICBC, the world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberattack that reportedly disrupted Treasury markets The average price of a used Tesla has declined 16 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $39,550 today (-42%) House Republicans look to pass two-step package to avoid partial government shutdown Iceland braces for volcanic eruption: As state of emergency is declared Markets : In FXland, CROSSJPY's pushing higher still/breaking up again, markets got tired and is challenging the BoJ 'talk talk', Gold : 200dma around $1935 - the hold area for the bulls SPX500 above 4420+ and further shorts will most likely be cut, year-end rally calls will be on the increase again - chart. DAX still in downtrend, but 11500+ and more squeeze coming Bonds pretty steady after Moody's - no real surprise nor impact, U.S CPI key this week though Moody's turns negative on US credit rating, draws Washington ire (msn.com) Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Diverge on Fed Rate-Cut Forecasts - Bloomberg MS sees FFR to 2.4% by 2025 and GS 4.% - Fed is at 3.9% House Republicans unveil plan to avoid government shutdown | AP News Biden and Xi are set to meet Wednesday at the APEC summit | AP News ICBC, the world's biggest bank, hit by ransomware cyberattack (cnbc.com) Algerian president names a new prime minister ahead of elections next year (qz.com) Going downhill: more than 50 Swiss ski lifts are rusting away - SWI swissinfo.ch Iceland braces for volcanic eruption: As state of emergency is declared, what is happening under the surface? | World News | Sky News Tough Swiss housing market drives densification, study finds - SWI swissinfo.ch Once a hydrogen vehicle pioneer, Switzerland lags in the green fuel race - SWI swissinfo.ch Escaped circus lion roams around Italian town before capture - BBC News Surprise! London politics LIVE: Cabinet reshuffle under way as ministers tell Rishi Sunak to sack Suella Braverman (msn.com) yet another reshuffle.. SPX500 DAX - still in downtrend, 11500+ and that would squeeze few more 'bears'

Powell : not confident rates were high enough, but the bar for another hike is pretty high overall, given lag impact of recent hikes still to be digested >>> data dependent, with higher inflation overall, a cyclical downturn beginning to take shape and China trapped in D-flation US government debt is on track to surpass $50 trillion by 2033. That means $5.2 billion is piling up every day/BoA Mario Draghi delivers downbeat outlook for EU economic growth. Bloc is falling behind its global counterparts, says former ECB president Portugal president calls March snap election, leaves time to pass budget Nvidia will reportedly sell new chips to China that still meet U.S. rules The Xi-Biden summit in San Francisco comes at a critical juncture for the United States and China as the global giants attempt to strike a balance amid strategic competition in an increasingly precarious world Israel has no plans to occupy Gaza after its war against Hamas is finished, Benjamin Netanyahu has said. FT-'Delinquent commercial real estate loans at US banks have hit their highest level in a decade, as higher interest rates, an uncertain economy and the rise of remote working pile pressure on building owners.' SNB's Schlegel says a temporary increase in inflation via rent is possible Markets : 30y auction, biggest tail on record (but, there is always a but-see below and it was a new issue, super-sized in a refunding month). UMich should not matter, unless out of whack relative to expectations.. USDollar picking up strength again/gradually. UST yield much lower last 2weeks and USDJPY On highs SPX500 'topping' around 4380/4400 together with 10's hitting (yield) support around 4.5%. The high(er) cost of capital for longer, will continue to hurt weak balance-sheets, companies without much of an E and definitely those who need to roll debt (if-when too expensive then they will -have- to issue equity..), this is an ongoing process over the next 12-18months still BTC quietly back to 35K VIX on 15 handle - huge delta buying back SPX, purely mechanical, on the yield puke lately (yesterday was always going to be more difficult wiht 30y) Powell reinforces Fed's cautious approach toward further interest rate hikes (qz.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell elaborates on the Fed’s current, conditional pause: We’ve been headfaked before on inflation. Policy should balance the risk of overtightening with the risk of “being misled by a few months of good data” Also: Fed policy review will begin in 2H 2024 and last about a year https://t.co/6cOclI0vxX" / X (twitter.com) Biden-Xi meeting could be last chance to steady US-China relationship (cnbc.com) Ransomware attack on ICBC disrupts trades in US Treasury market (ft.com) Israel agrees to 4-hour daily pauses in Gaza fighting: White House | AP News Mario Draghi delivers downbeat outlook for EU economic growth (ft.com) Croissance : pourquoi l’Europe patine face aux États-Unis (lepoint.fr) Opening remarks by Chair Powell at "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference hosted by the International Monetary Fund - Federal Reserve Board US Debt Will Top $50 Trillion by 2033 As $5.2 Billion Piles up Each Day (businessinsider.com) CNBC on X: "Sens. Mitt Romney and Joe Manchin weigh in on their proposal for a fiscal commission to reign in the $33T in national debt. https://t.co/QnfovrnrHe" / X (twitter.com) Why American manufacturing is increasingly inefficient (yahoo.com) Virgin Galactic stock surges nearly 20% after announcing plan for cost savings (msn.com) The share price soared after the company announced a cost-saving initiative, which includes pausing spaceflight operations next year - this is quite a typical market reaction... UBS Highlights Direction of Travel (finews.asia) Portugal president calls March snap election, leaves time to pass budget | Reuters Demand for global flights falls after Hamas attack on Israel Do airline stocks look like a good bet in 2024? (thearmchairtrader.com) Amazon takes another shot at health care, this one a virtual care service that costs $9 per month (qz.com) What Is the Most Common Question People Ask When Experiencing a Power Outage? - GraysHarborTalk Nvidia will reportedly sell new chips to China that still meet U.S. rules (cnbc.com) Tory clamour grows for Sunak to sack Suella - with even the chancellor condemning her remarks (msn.com) never ending political chaos Some colourful language in there ! but crickey... to be honest it probably was almost just as bad in other countries... Led By Donkeys on X: "What we’ve learned so far at the Covid inquiry (turns out the Tories are terrible). With @GavinEsler https://t.co/qfqxzfHPzI" / X (twitter.com) UK economy flatlines as finance minister decries inflation drag (cnbc.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from #Germany, where another green stock gets hammered. SMA Solar falls to a new 2023 low due to an order slowdown which puts risk on 2024 estimates. Despite billions invested in the energy transition, all German green stocks have lost a lot of ground in 2023. https://t.co/Cjx4dnYMw7" / X (twitter.com) >>>> without huge fiscal help from tax payers... it is very tough... 10's UST prices SPX500

On this day in 1989, the Berlin wall came down Over the last 120yrs 98% of all countries where sovereign debt/GDP hit 130% ended up defaulting. (GS) Jerome Powell Urges For A More Flexible Approach To Economic Forecasting: 'The Economy Frequently Surprises Us' BMO: The drop in oil prices is “likely to see next week’s CPI report .. dip back into the low 3’s. .. the Fed couldn’t have asked for much more to help it achieve a soft landing.” China is back in deflation, a sign that demand is not picking up despite numerous stimulus in recent months, China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2 per cent from a year earlier in October, while the producer price index (PPI) fell for the 13th month in a row Chinese health care stocks are back in vogue after a $142 billion wipeout, as signs grow that the worst of a government crackdown is over. US carries out new strikes against facility used by Iran in Syria More Americans are yanking money from their 401(k) plans to pay the bills Short interest in the ~Magnificent Seven~ is at an all time low --BofA Bank of Japan governor warns unwinding ultra-loose policy is ‘serious challenge’ BoE's Pill: UK monetary policy must stay tight to lower inflation Markets : Chinese deflation, copper prices slightly softer, crude OIL on lows, German data weak, plenty of signs of weakness on the macro picture, tricky and volatile path, market sentiment and views swing around pretty quickly JPY weaker, BoJ keeps on talking, market doesn't care about words, CROSSJPY's higher mainly in FX this week, and some of them looking like breaking up and heading back towards higher levels not seen since 2008 (EURJPY stopped just short of 170..)! back then though it was with EURUSD at 1.6000 ! and USDJPY 120 Equity markets enjoying the idea of softer yields and light talks of light recession, lower Chinese inflation, crude on lows (U.S. CPI next week should be softer!)..Big Techs on highs, MSFT hit a new high this week, familiar looking trend, where NQ follows the UST curve! EUstoxx50 - looks like it wants to break up too - chart Investing amid economic transformation - YouTube Steen's Big picture macro - well worth 11mins of your time Wall Street Analysts Who Cried Recession Are Sounding the Alarm Again - Bloomberg Jerome Powell Urges For A More Flexible Approach To Economic Forecasting: 'The Economy Frequently Surprises Us' (msn.com) One usually says this when one's got it wrong, or indeed things swing around pretty quickly, perhaps signs of loosing bond market 'control', US debt to GDP levels too high etc Americans say the economy stinks. But they’re spending like it’s great (yahoo.com) Elon, Inc. Podcast Is for Tesla, X, SpaceX, Boring Co. and all Musk News - Bloomberg China inflation: October’s consumer, factory-gate price drops do not portend ‘deflationary spiral’, analysts say | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) China Health Care Stocks on Road to Recovery After $142 Billion Rout - Caixin Global More Americans are yanking money from their 401(k) plans to pay the bills (yahoo.com) The number of 401(k) plan participants taking hardship distributions increased by 13% between the second and third quarters/BoA Speech by Governor UEDA in Nagoya (Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy) : 日本銀行 Bank of Japan (boj.or.jp) Central Bank Gold Buying Continued Unabated In September | ZeroHedge Antonio Costa: Portugal's prime minister resigns amid corruption investigation | World News | Sky News US carries out new strikes against facility used by Iran in Syria - SWI swissinfo.ch Ukraine Grapples With the Prospect Waning Western Support (stratfor.com) Watch live from Israel-Gaza border amid fierce fighting in Gaza City | The Independent AI can now outperform humans in 5 key cognitive ways (zmescience.com) Why did Microsoft's stock reach an all-time high on Nov. 7? (qz.com) Microsoft's record high stock price was about more than OpenAI ..The software giant's stock rose for eight days straight to reach an all-time high of $360 on Nov. 7 EU50 - looks like it wants to break up too

Biden, Xi set to steal APEC spotlight with talks to steady ties >>> China's Vice President Han Zheng sees “positive signals” after recent high-level talks with the US IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts The Fed doesn't want to talk about rate cuts, but Wall Street is sniffing out an increasing likelihood of just that. "“Six months ago, if the economy had fallen off the cliff, the Fed’s hands were tied. It couldn’t cut rates. Now it can."-BBG surveys on WallStreet UST's : the supply story is much more important to rates than the various Fed comments, this can of course change, but in the near term, the hike cycle is over and the market is totally focused on UST auctions and corporate issuances Self-driving car technology will still need another 10 years to become a big part of the business, says Uber CEO Coca-Cola, Danone and Nestle have been accused of making misleading claims about their plastic water bottles being "100% recycled" Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month, an amount that has doubled in the past 19 months/BBG, Total US Credit Card debt hit a record $1.08 trillion in the 3rd quarter, rising 16.6% over the last year Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will have "overall security responsibility" in Gaza for an "indefinite period" after its war with Hamas India is proposing reducing import taxes on some electric vehicles from the UK in an effort to clinch a free-trade deal between the two nations by the end of the year Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof ECB can reduce borrowing costs once it’s sure that consumer-price gains are headed back to the 2% target, according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks FT article, "Can corporate America cope with its vast debt pile?" Markets : U.S equity pushed slightly higher, all main 3 indices closed higher, with SPX, Nasdaq booking their longest winning run since Nov 2021 >>> momentum has slowed hard, few Fed talks today and Powell tomorrow, lower crude prices have helped the camp looking for yet lower inflation (demand low and China data weaker) SPX500 : from oversold to overbought in 10days... momentum should 'stall' ahead of 4380-4400 area - chart below (very similar picture in EU50stoxx chart yesterday) Crude down a few pct again to below $80 (that's the 200dma around here), totally erased any ME premium, down about 20% in 4-5weeks! >>> should be a good time for Biden Team to refuel for the SPR in the U.S. and/or for investors to start thinking at the sector again USD picks up steam pretty easily again, after short-term liquidation of longs last week (together with bonds, equity correction etc) Technical analysis aex25 bel20 cac40 smi20 | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) All technicals ECB Can Cut Rates When Clear Inflation Beaten, Kazaks Tells TV3 (yahoo.com) Wall Street Traders Are Suddenly Dreaming of the Fed Cuts They Crave - Bloomberg Israel-Gaza latest: Hamas leader 'surrounded in bunker', Israeli minister claims - as Netanyahu says 'HQs, tunnels and bases destroyed' | World News | Sky News IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts (yahoo.com) Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From the @FT article, "Can corporate America cope with its vast debt pile?" In addition to capturing current and future challenges associated with the change in the liquidity regime, these charts highlight the need for growth. Growth is by far the best way to deal with higher… https://t.co/SHI40Bghnu" / X (twitter.com) Biden, Xi set to steal APEC spotlight with talks to steady ties (yahoo.com) 3 warning signs for Biden: Yahoo Finance-Ipsos poll We wanted to go deeper in our survey and find out specifically why voters are so sour on the Biden economy. Inflation is clearly part of it, but inflation has improved substantially during the last year, while Biden’s approval rating has not. Something else seems to be weighing on voters. Here are three warning signs that emerged in our survey: inflation, recession, job market booming, but Factbox-US Election Day results: Governor races, abortion rights and more (msn.com) Millennials are struggling with credit card debt, NY Fed study finds (yahoo.com) Coca-Cola and Nestle accused of misleading eco claims - BBC News Uber earnings report Q3 2023 (cnbc.com) Shares hit 1y highs Germany agrees to consider UK-style plan on processing asylum abroad - BBC News Benko-Gate: Bear loan breathtaking - Inside Paradeplatz UBS: Integration Costs Prompt Quarterly Loss (finews.asia) they would or should 'kitchen sink it' in 2024, all redundancy and restructuring costs up-front.. Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof (yahoo.com) Judge Chutkan Denies Donald Trump His Wish (newsweek.com) SPX - from oversold to overbought in 10days... momentum should 'stall' ahead of 4380-4400 area Copper - been pretty rangy - China picking up steam (too many bears?..IMF ups forecasts on growth..) ... time to have a look again ?

Huge Bond short covering rally lost momentum yesterday and reversed about 10bps in the 10y UST, remains volatile ! Kashkari perhaps helped bring back a slightly more cautious view on Fed, we do have a the 17th Nov deadline looming again on debt ceiling, a Fed pause does not equate to an easing in policy Kashkari said it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation, despite positive signs that price pressures are easing RBA raised by 25bps, mostly expected/priced in. AUD fell in the wake of the decision, slightly softer language, but more importantly weak China data >>> “Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago,” Bullock said. The central bank had received fresh data since its August meeting and “the weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased” Fed report shows US loan officers see tighter credit, weaker demand Druckenmiller digs in on criticism of Yellen, disputes her math, saying her department is defending itself with faulty arithmetic Australian PM Albanese hails progress with China after Xi talks China’s exports fell by 6.4% year-on-year in October in $ terms, FDI into China fell below zero in Q3, for the first time on record Swiss unemployment rate is 2% - slightly lower than the 2.1% expected Citizens Bank was a small state-chartered bank. Its loan portfolio was focused on “commercial and industrial loans,” King’s Speech today, Charles to set out Rishi Sunak’s ‘vision of a better Britain’ ECB's de Guindos expects low growth or economic standstill in Q4 in eurozone PBOC's official Gold reserve rose to 71.2 mln Oz at end-Oct, rising for 12th straight months UBS posts its first quarterly loss in almost six years, as the ongoing integration of Credit Suisse drags on the Swiss lender’s performance Citi considers 10% job reduction in major units Solar panel advances will see millions go off grid, scientists predict “I think we will” have a recession in 2024 says Marc Lasry, CEO of Avenue Capital Group. “That’s the only thing that's going to force the Fed to lower rates.” Markets : VIX, bonds, equity markets moved a LONG way VERY quickly, positioning was to skewed one way, now much cleaner, will be harder for markets to push on from here USD catches a bid last 12hours as the 'peak rates' gets questioned again (short-term momentum stopped in bonds, usd and eq) EUstoxx50 - back to top of downtrend resistance - chart below -UST 10y yields down 13 bps from Thursday highs...and up 13 bps from Friday lows - still too volatile really, although this 'is' the new normal - higher vol. Only if/when bond markets really calm down will markets breathe for more than a few days or week (MOVE index key) Crude prices still under pressure on weak Chinese data Heard frequently in markets : "We've never had a period where the data is so noisy and volatile. Every single central banker is finding ways of saying they don't know or are not sure Druckenmiller Digs In on Criticism of Yellen, Disputes Her Math (yahoo.com) Bond yields signal the end of the new normal Fed’s Kashkari Says Too Soon to Declare Victory on Inflation - BNN Bloomberg Fed report shows US loan officers see tighter credit, weaker demand (yahoo.com) Iowa bank failure tied to bad trucking loans (yahoo.com) RBA interest rates: Reserve Bank hikes cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% | Interest rates | The Guardian Citi considers 10% job reduction in major units: report | Banking Dive Australian PM Albanese hails progress with China after Xi talks - BBC News George Magnus on X: "I think shocking only if it wasn’t on one’s radar. But the signs have been there, viz the precipitous drop in the last 4-6 qtrs. Some bigger firms are still putting money in eg auto firms for whom fight> flight. But sign of the times…." / X (twitter.com) China Extends Run of Gold Buying That’s Helped Support Prices - Bloomberg Israel-Hamas war live: Israel to have ‘security responsibility’ for Gaza when fighting ends, says Netanyahu (theguardian.com) Israel-Hamas war live updates: Latest news on Gaza conflict (cnbc.com) China trade data for October 2023 (cnbc.com) New Delhi to restrict use of vehicles to curb air pollution | Reuters UK house prices end six-month losing streak: Halifax | Reuters WeWork goes bankrupt in battle to bear down on debts (msn.com) Been on the card for a while, no surprise, but fair to say it sounded like a great idea at the time to be honest, but built on cheap debt, far too much debt! that acted like a disease! China hasn’t been this scary for investors in 25 years (yahoo.com) It's complicated, but maybe a time when long-term contrarians take notice... UBS on X: "In our first full quarter since the Credit Suisse acquisition, we’ve delivered underlying profitability and maintained strong client momentum while executing on our integration plans at pace. Hear more from UBS CEO Sergio P. Ermotti on our third quarter results. https://t.co/bKiof1GEAG" / X (twitter.com) Solar panel advances will see millions abandon electrical grid, scientists predict | The Independent #URA - highly volatile, it is a popular view that nuclear is a must have still going forward, obviously we are nowhere near the pre Fukushima levels CNBC's Fast Money on X: "Is the uranium trade about to go nuclear? @Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia shares his take on why the red-hot commodity is headed even higher https://t.co/tohTJNZSBy" / X (twitter.com) Eustoxx50

Softer NFP, forced further unwinding of 'short UST's', and lifted rates sensitive equity sectors that had been hammered lately, small caps-Russell, regional banks, Reit's etc, too many were positioned on the ''higher for longer'' theme, however, 'high for longer' was always the most likely scenario.. KOSPI up 5%, as authorities banned short-selling... >>> softer economic data and more cautious Central Banks ahead is what Mr Market loved last week, fair to say though we had 4.9% GDP vs ISM sub 50 (weird), a slightly weaker Oct NFP print, yet the 3-6montrhs average remains pretty healthy, we now have 50bps cut priced in by July 2024.. South Korea bans short selling until 2024 BofA: Global central banks “now cutting rates at fastest pace since Aug'20 (30 cuts in 3 months) ..” [Hartnett] FT-Why there are still active asset managers. Markets appear inefficient enough to justify large investors’ use of them This week’s notional net buying ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past 5 years" GS PB AI bot capable of insider trading and lying, say researchers Saudi Arabia, Russia to continue additional voluntary oil cuts Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals record $157 billion cash pile as the investor hunts in vain for bargains AAPL has bought back over $600bn of its own stocks over the past 10 years >> that's more than the market cap of some 490 companies within the S&P500... Tesla to build 25,000-euro car at German plant "CTAs had $19b S&P to buy in a flat tape over 5 trading sessions... after Friday's close with momentum flipping from negative to positive across all 3 triggers this S&P demand should increase by at least 2x." - GS Japan's largest industrial union UA Zensen will seek a 6% total wage increase, of which 4% will be base pay hikes, at next spring's negotiations, a union official said on Monday Markets : UST 10y broke well below the short term support trend line, hitting the 50dma around here 4.60%, bigger support in yield terms is around 4.3% USDollar weakened fairly sharply vs a number of pairs, 'peak usd ?' certainly few decent moves came in as expected ...in CABLE, AUDUSD, USDJPY peaking 150-151+, EUROUSD 1.0500 area, USDCAD 1.3800, USDMXN, even USDCNH backed off 7.32+.. Equity markets : Very sharp short covering rally (remember 7weeks of HF selling shorts..?...all got squeezed now. Overall markets will feel comfortable again while above 200dma SPX500 around 4240 area,full blown move up into year-end ? 4380-4400 next stop (chart)... Small caps also rallied hard (from super oversold levels..) Financial conditions improved materially last week with lower UST yields and softer USD, while Crude lost 4% or so last week (HF selling too, cutting bullish bets..) Last week we got, a BoJ less aggressive, slightly better refunding announcement (the early trigger), a FED that emphasized on the the 'tightening of financial conditions', sharp short positioning equity (7 weeks of HF shorting..) and bonds got squeezed hard, 200dma in SPX500 2340+ now will make the 'year-end rally' crowd more comfortable, crude lower on HF liquidation too... Some UK embassy staff and families withdrawn from Lebanon amid Gaza tensions | Evening Standard Nordea Sees Deeper Sweden GDP Contraction in 2024 Amid High Rates - Bloomberg Asia stock markets live updates: South Korea bans short selling (cnbc.com) Why there are still active asset managers (ft.com) Swiss central bank adjusts interest rates on sight deposits - SWI swissinfo.ch Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals record $157 billion cash pile as the investor hunts in vain for bargains (yahoo.com) Saudi Arabia, Russia to continue additional voluntary oil cuts | Reuters Hezbollah says Israel to 'pay price' after strike kills 3 children in Lebanon | Reuters UBS: Mainland China Leads Global Art Spending (finews.asia) (1) Richard Bernstein Advisors on X: "Many investors worry about US #debt levels…yet, they still refuse to #invest outside the US. (Chart: @WSJ) https://t.co/oYBICnwtbR" / X (twitter.com) AI bot capable of insider trading and lying, say researchers - BBC News Zermatt ski World Cup to go ahead despite slope encroachment - SWI swissinfo.ch Elon Musk unveils Grok, an AI chatbot with a ‘rebellious streak’ | Elon Musk | The Guardian Wave of cancellations in German housing construction at new high -Ifo (yahoo.com) Tesla to build 25,000-euro car at German plant - source (yahoo.com) SPX500 - back near top ? or full blown move up into year-end ? 4380-4400 next stop

Blinken in Tel Aviv today, NFP later on and 17th Nov is the new date for the debt ceiling, most folks think it will (have) to be raised again, no doubt there will be plenty of wheeling and dealing ahead of it AAPL : High Q3 revenue not enough to reverse the downward trend in Apple's overall performance ECB hopeful on inflation but cannot close door on rate hikes -Schnabel, yesterday's U.S rate 'plunge' is almost equal to a rate cut (bonds were way oversold..), 17th Nov Debt ceiling date again...>>> “The Fact is the Committee is Not thinking about rate cuts right now at all. We’re not talking about rate cuts” – J. Powell Thomas Jordan: SNB «Fulfilled Its Mandate» in Saving CS Putin revokes Russian ratification of global nuclear test ban treaty Yellen says the US economic relationship with China must consider human rights and national security. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Washington wants to build an economic relationship with Beijing that takes into account national security and human rights and is fair to both sides Elon Musk tells Rishi Sunak AI will eventually mean no one needs to have a job in a conversation with the Prime Minister following the summit at Bletchley Park FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried facing decades in jail as he’s convicted of defrauding crypto customers Apple on Thursday posted its fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales declines as the iPhone maker continues to struggle with slower device sales amid an uncertain economic environment Central Banks were slow to start the hiking cycle 2y ago, the risk is they will be slow to show any signs of cutting (possibly too late), thus will keep a lid on consumers for a while, still so much debt to be rolled over next 18-24months Bill Gross says it’s time to buy these regional bank stocks - opportunity, oversold levs Markets : From oversold bonds and equity levels (HF sold equity for 7weeks in a row...), NFP up next, if in line, we could very well have the best equity week YTD! just like that Bonds similar picture - the big 5%+ will be tough from here USDollar would appear to be forming a few 'tops' last couple of months, take CABLE 1.2050-1.2150 area (1.23+ needed for the USD bears), AUDUSD 0.6275 - 0.6400 area (similarly would need 0.65+ for the Oz bulls, EURUSD around 1.0500, USDMXN quickly back down, USDCAD topped around 1.38000, USDJPY topped 151+ but BoJ will move on YCC in early 2024 + Fed might well have peaked >>> risk for further USD long unwinding going forward on any 'weaker than expected' data, which will push market to price in a cut some Q1 or Q2 2024. CHF overall may well have peaked for now, in fact it weakened after 'peaks worries' from 2nd or 3rd week in October.. Crude pretty stable low 80's$ still SPX500 well above 200dma 4240 area, the stocks outside the magnificent 7's had a pretty ferocious rally this week, sign of more to come ? let's see whether it was short-covering or simply that they appear 'too cheap' to many >>> Hedge Funds are the least long U.S. stocks they've been in more than 11 years according to data from Goldman Sachs.. hummm, year-end rally? Nvidia’s dominance in AI is causing “growing inequalities” between countries and is stifling fair competition, France's finance minister warned “The Fact is the Committee is Not Thinking About Rate Cuts Right Now at All. We’re Not Talking About Rate Cuts” – J. Powell (fxempire.com) US voices support for pause in Gaza fighting as Blinken flies to Israel (msn.com) Israel says it has encircled Gaza City | Reuters Fixed-income: A barbell strategy and three central banks | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Yellen says the US economic relationship with China must consider human rights and national security (qz.com) ECB hopeful on inflation but cannot close door on rate hikes -Schnabel | Reuters Sunak, Musk and AI: what we learned from the Bletchley Park summit | Artificial intelligence (AI) | The Guardian Elon Musk tells Rishi Sunak: AI 'the most destructive force in history' | Evening Standard AI bot capable of insider trading and lying, say researchers - BBC News Yups Apple’s slower device sales continue to weigh on earnings (yahoo.com) California EV sales top 20% through Q3, with Tesla's Model Y leading the way (yahoo.com) Moderna stock falls as sinking Covid vaccine demand drives steep loss (msn.com) Amazing, one of the darling of the covid times.. Putin revokes Russian ratification of global nuclear test ban treaty | Reuters India’s push toward renewables will not stop coal reliance for 20 years (cnbc.com) Thomas Jordan: SNB «Fulfilled Its Mandate» in Saving CS (finews.asia) Do you agree?.. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried facing decades in jail as he’s convicted of defrauding crypto customers (msn.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 Important article on the way in which Chinese policy-makers are trying to prevent property-sector contraction from forcing them to cut back on overall investment by shifting investment from the degraded property sector towards manufacturing, https://t.co/mcLE21w9QY" / X (twitter.com) 4 in 10 workers with a 401(k) don't contribute to plan: CNBC survey Swiss authorities reportedly mull new rules to prevent bank runs - SWI swissinfo.ch have a great weekend team PVM

AAPL : The largest company in the world reports later on today U.S Treasury refunding (more issuance in short-end, less long-end, rebuild the TGA using RRP now..and get ready for an election year..probably keeping liquidities aplenty) ..came in slightly below 'feared levels', long-end rallied ahead of FOMC which was painted as perhaps 'high for not quite as long as feared', although the text didn't change much at all ECB's Knot: Policy rates now are at a good 'cruising altitude' >>> given data, ECB is pretty much done IMHO, German data showing rise in claims, unemployment rising Japan unveils $113-billion package to cushion inflation, Japan PM Kishida says will push firms to achieve higher wage hikes next year and eventually drop YCC in Jan or Feb ? Toyota has stated that from January 1, most hourly manufacturing workers (in the U.S) will experience a wage increase of approximately 9%, Signa Development Selection AG bonds lost about half their value on concern the company, part of Austrian billionaire Rene Benko’s sprawling real estate empire, is running low on cash SBF fraud trial begins closing arguments Trump trial document may prove he knew he lost election: Legal analyst FT-Media today stops politicians facing both ways on divisive issues Markets : Post Powell fear puke : VIX is not SPX500, but the last time VIX was here, SPX500 was 4'350 and long-end rallies on less Treasury issuance announcement UST 10's dropped relatively sharply (in an oversold market..) to now 4.74% EUROstoxx50 back near top of down channel, a bounce in a bear market must make lower lows to confirm bearish view, SPX500 back above 200dma ahead of AAPLE, Nasdaq100 back above those previous lows 14'500/700 area UST's whole curve beyond 1y back below 5% - markets were oversold in short-term, nice reaction on Powell who may or may not, probably won't hike TREASURIES-US yields slip after Treasury boosts auction sizes | Reuters Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement The Fed holds steady in an unprecedented economy (qz.com) U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh Fed policy outlook (cnbc.com) Japan unveils $113-billion package to cushion inflation | Reuters Germany's Jobless Rate Ticked Up in October - MarketWatch Israel-Hamas war live updates: Latest news on Gaza conflict (cnbc.com) Toyota Announces Wage Increase For US Factory Workers After UAW Secures Pay Hikes With Detroit Three (msn.com) DoubleLine’s Gundlach says interest rates are going to fall as recession arrives early 2024 (msn.com) Benko’s Signa Development Bonds Plunge as Cash Dries Up (yahoo.com) Benko's "Amigos" tremble: No way to get out of here - Inside Paradeplatz Nvidia: Competitors Will Be Watching Q3 Earnings (NASDAQ:NVDA) | Seeking Alpha SBF fraud trial begins closing arguments (yahoo.com) Trump Trial Document May Prove He Knew He Lost Election: Legal Analyst (newsweek.com) AI Experts Find Rishi Sunak And Elon Musk Interview "Depressing" (politicshome.com) After Greece clambers back to investment grade, what lies ahead? | MacroPolis China data stabilizes as policy measures accelerate (robeco.com) Too many bears?

Before the Fed decision, all eyes will be on this big Treasury debt announcement for FOMC : Nov meeting been long priced in as unchanged, as usual the presser, Powell's tone and every words will be analyse in 10seconds, overall hard to think how he can be too dovish with such strong GDP data and still some inflation concerns FT-The era of relentless Swiss franc appreciation is coming to an end >>> ''the policy has been successful, since Swiss inflation is now back below 2 per cent, meaning that the SNB is the only major central bank currently hitting its inflation target. Its latest forecasts project headline inflation of about 2 per cent over the coming two years'' The employment cost index, a broad gauge of wages and benefits, increased 1.1% in the July-to-September period after rising 1% in the second quarter Roche hits 5-year lows on disappointing study results, JPMorgan's bearish comments The UK Covid Inquiry is dragging Prime Minister Rishi Sunak back into the mire over his role in the country’s chaotic response to the pandemic Few months ago, EURO area inflation was meant to approach by year-end, it hit 2.9% in October, down from 4.2% in September, punchy!..core CPI though still 4.2% (from 4.5%) Canada's stalling economy on track for technical recession China leads record central bank gold buying in first nine months of year How WeWork’s Bankruptcy Would Ripple Through Commercial Real Estate (From a $9bn IPO SPAC to a top $47bn valuation..) The UAW deals could fuel more strikes in coming months, but if the labor market cools, that could tip the balance of power back toward employers UBS takes down Credit Suisse logo from Canary Wharf Office. Credit Suisse staff are relocating to the City of London Markets : EURJPY 160+ for the first time since Aug 2008, as the BoJ plays with fire, overall rates no higher so JPY less likely to weaken post BoJ (unlike previous months when global rates raced higher still) USDollar overall staying firm(er), CAD weaker on recession calls after GDP, CHF weakened fairly sharply into month-end (FT article), Gold topped 2K again but no momentum higher for now Equity markets rallied into month-end, as per usual.. now we wait for Powell and more announcement on refunding, hard to see Powell too dovish, data been still strong.. whether GDP is fuelled by debt or not, it was pretty strong! >>> keep 200dma in mind, markets probably still needs to sell some risk on rallies, APPL tomorrow too Crude stable too Before the Fed decision, all eyes will be on this big Treasury debt announcement Wednesday (msn.com) Powell likely to underscore inflation concerns even as Fed leaves key rate unchanged (msn.com) US Employment Costs Rise at Faster Pace on Pickup in Wage Growth - BNN Bloomberg Still firm-smidge firmer Canada's stalling economy on track for technical recession (yahoo.com) The era of relentless Swiss franc appreciation is coming to an end (ft.com) FACT SHEET: President Biden Issues Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence | The White House Apple revamps Mac lineup and pricing with new family of chips | Reuters Nothing really new? Covid inquiry: Why would the Scottish government delete WhatsApps? - BBC News And so many others in England... couldn't make this up Charlie Munger Blasts VCs As Gamblers Who Get Rich at Others' Expense (businessinsider.com) Anyone ? seems a bit harsh ? Southern California wildfire forces 4,000 residents to evacuate homes (cnbc.com) Roche hits 5-year lows on disappointing study results, JPMorgan's bearish comments By Investing.com AI benefits can 'dwarf anything in a generation,' says Sunak but Musk warns it could wipe out mankind | Evening Standard Boris Johnson suggested he thought COVID was 'nature's way of dealing with old people' | Politics News | Sky News Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by 2025, predicts Bernstein (cnbc.com) Here we go again China leads record central bank gold buying in first nine months of year (ft.com) How WeWork’s Bankruptcy Would Ripple Through Commercial Real Estate (yahoo.com) UAW Deal Shows Unions Are Winning. How Long Will It Last? - WSJ UBS Takes Down Credit Suisse Logo From Canary Wharf Office - Bloomberg

Stanley Druckenmiller slams Janet Yellen for ‘biggest blunder in Treasury history’: Failing to lock in rock-bottom interest rates GM is slowing EV production amid labor strikes and “evolving” demand. The automaker says it will save $1.5 billion next year by punting production to 2025 Panasonic reduces production of electric vehicle batteries BoJ raised inflation forecasts for the next 3years and kept policy pretty much unchanged, slight tweak, which is a little strange..JGB's continue lower 95bps, JPY still weak, 'flexible cap at 1%'', so it's not a cap really..! Ueda: Don't think long-term rates will come under pressure to exceed 1%, looks like the market will test them Citi argues if fiscal sustainability becomes a priority..higher corp taxes may become more palatable than spending cuts. .. The effective tax rate for the S&P 500 hovered around ~35% through the 1990’s. The average .. following the 2017 tax cuts was dropped to about 19% ..” JPMORGAN: “.. excess household liquidity (cash-equivalent assets) has fallen from peak of $3.4T to $1.0T and should largely be exhausted by 2Q24. Importantly, even as of 2Q23, nearly all the inflation-adjusted excess cash sits with the relatively affluent (top 20%).” [Dubravko] IMF : China's property sector crisis could intensify, posing a complex policy challenge. If property prices fall too rapidly, bank and household balance sheets will deteriorate, with potentially severe financial consequences German inflation data pretty soft yesterday and economy shrinks slightly in Q3, increasing pricing/expectations that ECB could cut as early as March 2024 Markets : SPX500 : while we remain below 200dma around 4235, markets will not feel the urge to buy and reduce risk on rallies, negative gamma below 4100 kicks in as well USDJPY testing BoJ again, JGB's are lower (95bps 10y) and JPY is lower too, which is slightly puzzling, although all yields are rising again Crude pretty steady still Credit, a lot more being written about it these days, warnings coming through thick and fast, as 'high for longer' is going to impact many weak balance-sheets going forward into 2024 and 2025 Yen slides as BOJ largely stands pat but tweaks yield cap (msn.com) k231031a.pdf (boj.or.jp) Treasury to borrow $776 billion in final three months of year (cnbc.com) Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences (imf.org) Stanley Druckenmiller slams Janet Yellen for ‘biggest blunder in Treasury history’: Failing to lock in rock-bottom interest rates (msn.com) German economy shrinks slightly in Q3 (msn.com) Tank seen on key Gaza road as Israeli forces push deeper into north - BBC News Apple announces new M3 chips, cuts price of entry-level MacBook Pro (cnbc.com) Nvidia’s $5 Billion of China Orders in Limbo After Latest U.S. Curbs | Mint (livemint.com) Partners Group Expands Japan Private Wealth Team (finews.asia) GM is slowing EV production amid labor strikes and “evolving” demand (qz.com) The UAW reaches deals with carmakers, but workers must approve (qz.com) Panasonic reduces production of electric vehicle batteries - FutureCar.com - via @FutureCar_Media Carl Quintanilla on X: "JPMORGAN: “.. excess household liquidity (cash-equivalent assets) has fallen from peak of $3.4T to $1.0T and should largely be exhausted by 2Q24. Importantly, even as of 2Q23, nearly all the inflation-adjusted excess cash sits with the relatively affluent (top 20%).” [Dubravko] https://t.co/WbUxX7011l" / X (twitter.com) Warren Buffett's company joins oil-buying frenzy this week by resuming its Occidental Petroleum buys (yahoo.com) Macron Travels to Central Asia Seeking Friendship and Uranium | TIME