Huge Bond short covering rally lost momentum yesterday and reversed about 10bps in the 10y UST, remains volatile ! Kashkari perhaps helped bring back a slightly more cautious view on Fed, we do have a the 17th Nov deadline looming again on debt ceiling, a Fed pause does not equate to an easing in policy
Kashkari said it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation, despite positive signs that price pressures are easing
RBA raised by 25bps, mostly expected/priced in. AUD fell in the wake of the decision, slightly softer language, but more importantly weak China data >>> “Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ago,” Bullock said. The central bank had received fresh data since its August meeting and “the weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased”
Fed report shows US loan officers see tighter credit, weaker demand
Druckenmiller digs in on criticism of Yellen, disputes her math, saying her department is defending itself with faulty arithmetic
Australian PM Albanese hails progress with China after Xi talks
China’s exports fell by 6.4% year-on-year in October in $ terms, FDI into China fell below zero in Q3, for the first time on record
Swiss unemployment rate is 2% - slightly lower than the 2.1% expected
Citizens Bank was a small state-chartered bank. Its loan portfolio was focused on “commercial and industrial loans,”
King’s Speech today, Charles to set out Rishi Sunak’s ‘vision of a better Britain’
ECB's de Guindos expects low growth or economic standstill in Q4 in eurozone
PBOC's official Gold reserve rose to 71.2 mln Oz at end-Oct, rising for 12th straight months
UBS posts its first quarterly loss in almost six years, as the ongoing integration of Credit Suisse drags on the Swiss lender’s performance
Citi considers 10% job reduction in major units
Solar panel advances will see millions go off grid, scientists predict
“I think we will” have a recession in 2024 says Marc Lasry, CEO of Avenue Capital Group. “That’s the only thing that's going to force the Fed to lower rates.”
Markets :
VIX, bonds, equity markets moved a LONG way VERY quickly, positioning was to skewed one way, now much cleaner, will be harder for markets to push on from here
USD catches a bid last 12hours as the 'peak rates' gets questioned again (short-term momentum stopped in bonds, usd and eq)
EUstoxx50 - back to top of downtrend resistance - chart below
-UST 10y yields down 13 bps from Thursday highs...and up 13 bps from Friday lows - still too volatile really, although this 'is' the new normal - higher vol. Only if/when bond markets really calm down will markets breathe for more than a few days or week (MOVE index key)
Crude prices still under pressure on weak Chinese data
Heard frequently in markets : "We've never had a period where the data is so noisy and volatile. Every single central banker is finding ways of saying they don't know or are not sure
Been on the card for a while, no surprise, but fair to say it sounded like a great idea at the time to be honest, but built on cheap debt, far too much debt! that acted like a disease!
It's complicated, but maybe a time when long-term contrarians take notice...
Solar panel advances will see millions abandon electrical grid, scientists predict | The Independent
#URA - highly volatile, it is a popular view that nuclear is a must have still going forward, obviously we are nowhere near the pre Fukushima levels
Eustoxx50
