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Landmark Decision: Court Rules Credit Suisse bond wipeout was unlawful >>> so who will pick up the tab eventually ? taxpayers ?....dream scenario for lawyers and for years to come.. Markets : US PURCHASED ARGENTINE PESOS THIS MORNING: AXIOS, The Iron-Dollar Crack: BHP's quiet surrender to the Yuan (Thread!), Dimon said gold can get to $10K (he didn't say this unless there is a reason, so why?..UST revalues gold up there and that's over $2.5trn USD into the TGA...?..thoughts ?) , see BofAFMs survey below/thread, JPN coalition not so easy #JPY, Oz jobs data slips Trade : US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests possibility of longer China tariff truce, ''We want to help China, not hurt it¨¨, US Trade Representative Greer: We are expecting Chinese restrictions not to be implemented and go back to prior agreement Geopolitics : Venezuelan F-16s were reportedly scrambled due to US airforce presence to the North, Pete Hegseth-“If there is no path to peace in the short term, then the United States, along with our allies, will take steps necessary to impose costs on Russia for its continued aggression.” (very notable rhetoric shift), The Pentagon has developed plans to sell or transfer Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, thats a game changer , US military won't be needed to disarm Hamas , UK vs China spy case mass, Trump says Modi assured him India will stop Russian oil purchases, but timeline unclear UK: Anatomy of a Rolling Fiscal Crisis – Part 2, from the excellent BlondeMoney China FM : China and EU should be partners and enhance mutual trust - ministry Sebastien Lecornu looks set to survive two no-confidence motions today . The censure motions from National Rally and France Unbowed may not get the support of Socialist lawmakers Of course it’s a bubble’: AI start-up valuations soar in investor frenzy. Unprecedented funding leads 10 groups including OpenAI and Elon Musk’s xAI to gain almost $1tn in value in past year. (FT) Microsoft aims to make most new products outside China from 2026 - report Landmark Decision: Court Rules Credit Suisse Bond Wipeout Was Unlawful Why the AT1 Judgment Shakes the System – Beyond Credit Suisse Trump will set price floors across industries to combat China, Bessent says US Banks Cheer Regulators' Steps Toward Easing Capital Requirements U.S.-China trade: Bessent says Trump won't be deterred by stock drops Stocks swoon as U.S.-China trade war has markets on a rollercoaster Tracking OpenAI's deals with Nvidia, Walmart, AMD, and more Here we go again US Banks Cheer Regulators' Steps Toward Easing Capital Requirements USDJPY LDP, Japan Innovation to discuss decentralization, social security reform - Nikkei Asia China’s rare-earth squeeze, explained: What Beijing wants—and how Washington may respond Australian Jobs Slip as Unemployment Surges, Boosting RBA Rate-Cut Bets – Sri Lanka Guardian Trump says Modi assured him India will stop Russian oil purchases Venezuela buzzed an American destroyer with US-made F-16s amid a Caribbean standoff Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin will face ‘costs’ if he continues war, Trump official warns Israel-Gaza live updates: US military won't be needed to disarm Hamas, Trump says - ABC News Key witness in spy case said UK wanted ‘positive relationship’ with China despite Beijing being branded a 'threat' | LBC EU should take a rational and pragmatic view of rare earth export control measures: China Daily editorial - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn China, EU should expand trade, investment ties to cope with external uncertainties: Chinese premier The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Gold is going mainstream: 43% of global fund managers say “Long Gold” is the most crowded trade, according to a BofA survey of 166 participants with $400 billion in assets. Gold has reclaimed the lead after 3 consecutive months where “Long Magnificent 7” topped the list. https://t.co/Vj1RJQmpk2 " / X AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants Travis Ricciardo on X: "The Iron-Dollar Crack: BHP's Quiet Surrender to the Yuan Late Friday afternoon, while markets were closing and Canberra was clocking off, BHP agreed to something that may define the decade. From the fourth quarter of 2025, the world’s biggest miner will settle 30 per cent of https://t.co/x3ELOd5Fu4 " / X Fifteen years ago, BHP anchored iron ore to the dollar system by killing the annual benchmark and adopting spot index pricing. Now it’s loosening that anchor, settling in yuan and drifting toward China’s financial tide. Time to learn Mandarin... and probably hoard (still hold imho) gold, ''XAUUSD is overbought in short-term and under owned in long-term'' UK: Anatomy of a Rolling Fiscal Crisis – Part 2 – Blonde Money It's going to get more volatile ! The Global Debasement Trade - Robin J Brooks What we know about rising gold prices Rising gold prices and soaring long-term yields have the same driver: too much debt Well documented overall in markets, but very nicely put here ! EndGame Macro on X: "The Quiet Transformation Behind QT Quantitative tightening never actually reached the long end of the curve. Since 2022, the Fed hasn’t been meaningfully reducing its holdings of 10 year and longer Treasuries, the red line keeps climbing. The so called balance sheet reduction https://t.co/PX9yv7xncb " / X Top man Ed - well explained too Ed Conway on X: "📽️ The @IMFNews World Economic Outlook is arguably the single most important report in the economic calendar. So what did we learn from the latest one? As it happens, quite a lot... About tariffs (and why they haven't led to disaster). AI. And more. Here's my in-depth primer👇 https://t.co/Lkz5zgoi4m " / X Visioner on X: "🇷🇺🔥"The current attack of the Russian army against Ukraine resembles a prolonged slaughter, which in terms of destruction and losses can be compared to the Battle of Stalingrad. There is no talk of any breakthrough; the situation is simply at a dead end," said Oleg Pakholkov, a https://t.co/donfh4xT50 " / X Bank of America's big quarter shows big banks riding high Microsoft aims to make most new products outside China from 2026 - report

French PM backs suspending Macron's pension reform in bid to save government Trump: China purposefully not buying our soybeans, and causing difficulty for our soybean farmers, is an economically hostile act, We are considering terminating business with china having to do with cooking oil, and other elements of trade, as retribution - Truth Social... Friday like this, Sunday like that, and back again... Markets : OpenAI’s hyperscaler ambitions are being put to the test with its latest megadeals, Fed Powell: Downside risks to US job market have increased, may be approaching end of balance sheet contraction (QT) in coming months (you know what comes next..), '' The US simply cannot afford a major, sustained equity drawdown! That’s easily the biggest threats to the political system, the social fabric, and everything in between. (Chart Source: GS)'' , Argentina, the US Treasury and the $20bn ‘swap’ (Argentina rarely pays back, in time at least..), Top US financiers sound alarm on lending standards. Apollo’s Marc Rowan warns of ‘willingness to cut corners’-FT >> plenty of equity bears out there (tariff tantrum, valuations, but dip was bought pretty easy again yesterday), and plenty of bulls as FED to cut, stop QT, debasement, seasonal bullish factor etc), no matter what precious metals continue higher, GOLD impressive ! but not only gold.. Geopolitics : Poland says Putin could strike ‘deep into Europe’ as downed Shahed drone unveiled, Israel 'to open Rafah crossing' in U-turn after Hamas returns more bodies - as Netanyahu issues warning Trade : China has warned that it will retaliate if President Trump moves forward with his threat to impose a 100% tariff , signaling a potential escalation in trade tensions. - WASHINGTON POST, US President Trump On NATO Spending: ‘Very Unhappy’ With Spain - Thinking About Giving Spain Trade Punishment Through Tariffs Chinese Containership ‘Istanbul Bridge’ Reaches UK via Arctic Route in Record 20 Days, Istanbul Bridge transited Northern Sea Route in 5 days at 17 knots!  Just 20 days from China to UK #RAREEARTHS What on earth are rare earths? Why do they matter so much? Why do they nearly all come from China? 10mins well worth looking at (Video below) Swiss exports to the USA have fallen by approximately 22% since July 1, 2025 , with the most dramatic drop occurring after the new 39% US tariffs took effect on August 7, 2025. The value decline is about CHF 873 million, dropping from just under CHF 4 billion in July to CHF 3.1 billion in August—making this the lowest Swiss export level to the US since late 2020. Gold and watch exports saw especially sharp declines, with gold exports declining by 99% month-on-month and Swiss watches by 24%, respectively JPM : Dimon 'not levels to be buying stocks back' ... Despite ongoing authorization, JPM slowed net buybacks to roughly $2–3B this quarter with CET1 ~14.8%—and its equity risk premium near ~1% (two-decade lows) makes repurchases less attractive versus building capital and leaning into loan growth and tech spend The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs. Canada, U.K. and European Union back off electric-vehicle targets as economic reality sets in; even China shows cracks. (WSJ) Jerome Powell speech LIVE: Fed Chair flags labour market concerns in address on economic outlook at NABE annual meeting | Mint Federal Reserve's Powell sees a ways to go on shrinking Fed holdings - CNA Dollar Sips as Euro Recovers on Lagarde Comments Argentina, the US Treasury and the $20bn ‘swap’ - OMFIF French PM backs suspending Macron's pension reform in bid to save government Economy warning: Bank of England says UK faces 'severe weakness' in demand despite US trade deal Jamie Dimon said it makes “some sense” to own gold in today’s market, though he won’t say if it’s overpriced. Speaking at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference, the JPMorgan Chase CEO noted gold could rise to $5,000–$10,000, calling it one of the few times it’s “semi-rational” to hold. He also warned that asset prices are high “across almost everything.” Israeli military says bodies of four more hostages are back in Israel with formal identification to take place - BBC News Ukraine-Russia war latest: Poland says Putin could strike ‘deep into Europe’ as downed Shahed drone unveiled | The Independent OpenAI's latest megadeals are testing its hyperscaler ambitions Donald Trump hedges on two-state solution Most U.S. consumers expect higher holiday prices and a weaker economy, survey finds dMacro/dBS on X: "The US simply cannot afford a major, sustained equity drawdown! That’s easily the biggest threats to the political system, the social fabric, and everything in between. (Chart Source: GS) https://t.co/zFrsrPBp2Z " / X #rareearth 'trade war' - well worth 10mins of your time - VERY interesting Ed Conway on X: "🎥 What on earth are rare earths? Why do they matter so much? Why do they nearly all come from China? And how worried should we be about the latest chapter in the trade war? These and more questions answered in my latest primer👇 https://t.co/VKMw3CscJE " / X Malte Humpert on X: "Chinese Containership ‘Istanbul Bridge’ Reaches UK via Arctic Route in Record 20 Days 👉 Istanbul Bridge transited Northern Sea Route in 5 days at 17 knots! 👉 Just 20 days from 🇨🇳 to 🇬🇧. @mercoglianos @johnkonrad @DrPJSullivan @gCaptain https://t.co/oASz1GTmOP https://t.co/aaxrnU8W4k " / X EndGame Macro on X: "The ultra long U.S. Treasury bond coming within inches of a golden cross is signaling that the world’s largest bond market is beginning to price in the end of the tightening era. When long duration Treasuries start to base and push higher, it means investors no longer see https://t.co/5E1KmFQ2c3 " / X US strikes another vessel off Venezuela coast, killing six JPMorgan's Dimon on Tricolor losses: 'It is not our finest moment' The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs

Rare earth metals is all the rage Bessent says China wants to ‘pull everybody else down’ . US Treasury secretary tells FT that Beijing is trying to hurt the world’s economy Markets : Retaliation or escalation?, Xi Jinping has made it clear he’s happy to fight fire with fire in China’s trade spat with the US >>>  WHY exactly does the market (U.S ..) view China as the bad actor in these situation ?? - after all these years of calmess ?...that because China has or will soon outperform the US in just about every industrial way.. (how will the U.S rebuild its industrial rebirth, Marshall plan 2.0... going to be tricky as they all fight for rare metals !! #REGB , #SLV starting to trade like a 'meme' stock, be careful out there, #AI ''financial engineering disguised as technological progress.'' (Thread), GS : American pay tariffs , 'Very troubling': AI's self-investment spree sets off bubble alarms on Wall Street >>> markets showing some 'volatile herratic signs' on highs, time to be careful out ther and have a #hedgingtrade on, #USDJPY trend still favors a weaker yen, the market is stretched , carry trades are crowded, volatility is creeping higher, and any shock to U.S. yields or a coordinated policy move from Tokyo could trigger a sharp yen rebound Trade : crude higher n trade tensions Geopolitics : Trump after Gaza, he plans to focus on resolving the war in Ukraine, and after that, on a peace deal with Iran, US president wants to ‘rebuild Gaza’ after signing historic peace deal Ex-CIA Director Petraeus: Putin became NATO’s greatest gift since the Cold War. For years the threat seemed gone, defense was deprioritized. I expect Merz to show more leadership. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and now the world’s 3rd BofA lifts gold target to $5,000/oz, sees silver staying in deficit Retaliation or escalation? Trust between U.S. and China is fading fast >>> the asnwer came overnight escalation Bessent says China wants to ‘pull everybody else down’ 'Very troubling': AI's self-investment spree sets off bubble alarms on Wall Street Americans are eating Trump's tariffs, Goldman Sachs says Trump-Gaza latest: US president wants to ‘rebuild Gaza’ after signing historic peace deal Oil edges higher with US-China trade tensions, demand in focus - CNBC TV18 Beijing blames US for raising trade tensions, defends rare earth curbs | Reuters Metals Squeeze →Funding Stress → Rotation To USD BofA lifts gold target to $5,000/oz, sees silver staying in deficit By Investing.com RBA slows easing cycle with a rate hold, cites 'cautious' outlook - Financial Newswire Singapore keeps policy stance unchanged as economy shows resilience-Xinhua Rare earth stocks surge on U.S-China trade dispute over the critical minerals Julius Baer faces credit losses from insolvent Degag Group, report says JPMorgan aims $1.5 trillion at America’s industrial comeback Lloyds estimates £1.95bn hit from motor finance scandal | Money News | Sky News One of the biggest scandal around... and nearly 20y old, why so long !!!? Dr_Silberschmelzer on X: "$CVNA $JEF $ALLY $JPM Jim Chanos, the short seller who called Enron's fall, explains why he is betting against car retailer Carvana ... https://t.co/ImE8IrzZX4 " / X (1) Hedgie on X: "🦔 I've been digging into the AI data center economics, and a hedge fund manager just discovered something that confirms my worst fears about this bubble. Harris Kupperman initially thought data centers were financially questionable, but after talking to industry insiders, he" / X

Markets : Silver squeeze!, all precious metals roaring still.., JPN's Takaichi's government at risk, Lecornu names new French government after reappointment (again..), China's exports accelerated as Xi and Trump raised stakes in trade war, Friday sell-off on China RE caps (rom software, equipment to materials, China is reconstructing an entire ecosystem inside the country)!!. . Trump's tariffs, then Trump’s administration signaled openness Sunday to a deal with China to quell fresh trade tensions while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talk.... and Trump said not to worry and 'BUY' and most things bounced 2/3 of Friday sell-off (SO much insider stuff in there, particularly in crypto !!), crypto only 'delaying' the eventual usd downside ? in fact doing the opposite to what they advertise'' (Thread), Morgan Stanley recommends 20% gold allocation. Meanwhile 39% of fund managers have ZERO gold! Geopolitics : According to preliminary reports, the United States has deployed over 10,000 troops to Puerto Rico, while units of the 82nd Airborne Division have been sent to Trinidad and Tobago, near Venezuela, Trade : China unveils sweeping new export rules on rare earths, batteries, Mining and processing technologies, companies outside country subject to licensing, Dutch government takes control of Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia in ‘highly exceptional’ move The US Senate has passed legislation requiring Nvidia and AMD to give US companies "priority access" to their chips before China Central bankers, already uneasy about trade tensions and swelling public debt, will collectively confront a new worry in the coming week: the danger of a market crash. Global policymakers and finance ministers will gather in Washington for the International Monetary Fund/World Bank fall meetings after a chorus of warnings that a stock bubble focused on artificial intelligence companies might burst before long Gaza latest: All 20 Israeli hostages released by Hamas as Trump declares ‘every country is dancing in the streets’ | The Independent China: Trump tariffs for rare earths move risk trade war China refuses to give in to Trump’s tariff threat | PBS News Xi’s red line on Trump’s export curbs threatens to upend truce - The Business Times Xixi®茜茜大姐 🇨🇳🇭🇰🇲🇴 on X: "@sahilypatel From software, equipment to materials, China is reconstructing an entire ecosystem inside the country https://t.co/5jXBSomOv5 " / X This is MUCH BIGGER than Deepseek Takaichi taking office will herald arrival of Japan’s first-ever first husband - The Japan Times Germans could be forced to work until the age of 73 - spotmedia.ro Lecornu names new French government after reappointment – POLITICO When The Market Structure Breaks: How To Survive The Next Phase Bessent narrows Trump list for next Fed chair to 5 candidates Dutch government takes control of Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia Ray Dalio says U.S. 'deficit-and-debt bomb' could spark a crisis London Short-Squeeze: US Sends Silver to Cover Shortfall | Scottsdale Mint NSTRIKE on X: "❗️❗️🇺🇸 According to preliminary reports, the United States has deployed over 10,000 troops to Puerto Rico, while units of the 82nd Airborne Division have been sent to Trinidad and Tobago, near Venezuela. Reports suggest that the Department of War may be preparing an operation to https://t.co/isbvSoUcpX " / X EndGame Macro on X: "What Trump is doing is laying the groundwork for a major shift in how housing policy could be framed and financed. The post looks like a populist swipe at corporate welfare, suggesting that giant homebuilders are being handed billions while ordinary Americans can’t afford homes. https://t.co/WFebxs21We " / X This Is How the AI Bubble Bursts | Yale Insights Samantha LaDuc on X: "Them fighting words: “Cryptos are only there to delay deval. As they create demand for stablecoins (BIS paper 141) which in turn creates demand for UST. Cryptos do the exact opposite of what they advertise. They protect the USD.” #USDdevaluation" / X Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 on X: "According to Bloomberg, liquidity (of physical Silver) in London has nearly vanished. Traders short the physical market are struggling to find metal, paying steep borrowing costs to maintain positions. “There is no (physical Silver) liquidity available currently.” said Anant" / X September's inflation report to land in time for Fed meeting

The elephant in the room: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI alone have announced $800 BILLION in commitments for new data centers in 2025. Meanwhile, electricity prices are up +35% since 2022. With nuclear power 10+ years away, how will we meet electricity demand? Markets : #JPY Komeito announces split with LDP, clouding Takaichi's bid for PM, Trump renews threas wiht congress mired in the shutdown brawl, Ferrari halves electric vehicle target, Japan's Internal Affairs & Comms. Min. Takaichi: There is no intention of triggering an excessively weak Yen, XAGUSD +$50 'the Hunt brothers would be proud'', the First Brands bankruptcy is top tier drama!! (they will make a film about it !), Treasury Sec, Scott Bessent FIRES BACK at JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon claiming the stock market may fall (Thread), Macron nominates a new PM before COB, EMG currencies were softer last few days, DOGE was a lot of NOTHING burger (spending still on the increase) Geopolitics : The head of Russia is personally afraid of a ceasefire, because once a ceasefire is in place, returning to the war would be difficult for him (Zelenskyy), The European Parliament supported a resolution authorising the downing of Russian aircraft and drones that enter European airspace, Kyiv will nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he sends Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and helps achieve a ceasefire with Russia according to Politico, Trump heading for Israel on Sunday In 1971, the U.S. literally ran out of money . Back then, the dollar was backed by gold , which meant every paper dollar represented real gold sitting in U.S. reserves. The problem was the country was spending way more than it earned, printing dollars that didn’t have enough gold to back them/thread, video, Ray Dalio explains Huge escalation by China! MOFCOM announces new exports controls taking effect after Dec 1 of rare earths to anyone anywhere in the world producing chips or equipment to make chips below 14nm or 256 layer memory due to “military applications” >>> 'gives China de-facto veto power over the entire advanced semi-conductor supply chain as rare earths are used at critical steps throughout - from ASML to TSMC' White House officials have held increasingly serious discussions in recent days about Trump invoking the Insurrection Act >>> Military being used for law enforcement Bessent : The purpose of Dodd-Frank was to end “too big to fail.” But it ended up creating “too small to succeed.” >>> justifying deregulations (just when bad credit stories pop out... First Brand etc... Trump Renews Threats With Congress Mired in a Shutdown Brawl French President Macron to name a new prime minister by Friday evening Australia's Economy in a Good Place, Though Risks Loom, RBA Governor Says Argentine Markets Breathe Sigh of Relief as Peso Allowed to Dip | Stock Market News Eric Daugherty on X: "🚨 BREAKING: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent FIRES BACK at JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon claiming the stock market may fall "Wall Street and Main Street can both do well. If you're the CEO of America's largest bank, what you care about is Wall Street. We care about BOTH." "What Jamie https://t.co/Bjvdzs0s2q " / X Jamie Dimon has a warning about the stock market StockMarket.News on X: "In 1971, the U.S. literally ran out of money. Back then, the dollar was backed by gold, which meant every paper dollar represented real gold sitting in U.S. reserves. The problem was the country was spending way more than it earned, printing dollars that didn’t have enough gold https://t.co/J5n14HVL6N " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "#Silver is riding the same wave that has driven gold more than 50% higher this year. It has now broken above the 2011 peak just below USD 50 to reach levels last seen in 1980 —though, adjusted for inflation, the Hunt brothers’ attempt to corner the market back then remains far" / X The Hunt Brothers, great story : Bing Videos Ferrari shares crash over 10% after teasing new EV: what happened? | Invezz Trump administration officials seriously discussing invoking Insurrection Act, sources say Elon Musk agrees to settle $128 million Twitter lawsuit Was DOGE all for nothing? Here are the receipts Announcement No. 61 of 2025 of the Ministry of Commerce announced the decision to implement export controls on relevant rare earth items overseas China expands rare earth export restrictions ahead of possible Trump-Xi meeting (1) Polemic Paine on X: "Markets Gold above $4,000 is now used as proof that dollar debasement is inevitable. Hedge funds are all short USD. AI has become a meme that now spills into nuclear stocks with zero revenue and parabolic charts. UK gilts are priced for ever-rising yields. The mood on Western" / X Man Utd and chemicals boss warns of 'moment of reckoning' for his industry | Money News | Sky News The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The elephant in the room: Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI alone have announced $800 BILLION in commitments for new data centers in 2025. Meanwhile, electricity prices are up +35% since 2022. With nuclear power 10+ years away, how will we meet electricity demand? https://t.co/NX6EUhAz9t " / X CS-Abflüsse übertreffen Worst Nightmare der UBS-Strategen – Inside Paradeplatz

Markets : Divided Fed officials saw another two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, minutes show (priced in), Bessent grilled Fed chair candidates on rates and QE, TSLA's cheaper new car that isn't, First Brand creditor says ''up to $2.3bn simply vanished, seeks investigation'', lots of chatters about AI ''circular economy-revenues'' (no market reaction yet anyway), GS still thinks no bubble yet, 91% of Fund Managers believe U.S. Stocks are overvalued, the most in history (BofA FMs), market leadership quietly flipping from risk on AI mania to risk off balance-sheet survival.. . USDollar found some strength lately (lead by USDJPY), EURUSD topped aorund 1.18-1.19 area, USDCHF popping its head back above 0.80+ area, major usd pairs never really followed the general USD weakness vs precious metals - big picture, all been about the 'debasement' trade it has been last few months... precious metals up vs everything, cryptos, mega caps in eq, and generally speaking a weak #duration in bond world, lead by JGB's, never healthy to call any turn, which such momentum of late, never hurts to take some profit mind.. Geopolitics : What we know about the 'first phase' of the Gaza peace deal, Moscow says momentum for peace deal after Trump-Putin summit has been exhausted China expands rare-earth export curbs , including oversight overseas Mining and processing technologies, companies outside country subject to licensing rules. Even Tesla's biggest fan on Wall Street isn't impressed with Elon Musk's cheaper new car. Even Tesla’s biggest bull can’t spin this one: Elon Musk’s “affordable” EVs cost nearly $40,000 — cheaper on paper, not in practice OpenAI has literally engrained itself in most of the world's largest technology companies . And, almost all of the money that companies are investing in OpenAI is being used BY OpenAI to purchase products and compute from the investor/Thread Fed minutes September 2025: Divided FOMC saw another two rate cuts by the end of 2025 What we know about the 'first phase' Gaza peace deal Israel and Hamas agree to first phase of Gaza peace deal, Trump says - live updates - BBC News Russia accused of hybrid warfare against Europe. What does that mean? Ukraine-Russia war latest: Moscow says momentum for peace deal after Trump-Putin summit has been exhausted China honing abilities for a possible future attack, Taiwan defence report warns | Reuters French President Macron to name a new prime minister by Friday evening | Euronews Data center in Caledonia; Microsoft shuts down plans to build | FOX6 Milwaukee The Kobeissi Letter on X: "OpenAI has literally engrained itself in most of the world's largest technology companies. And, almost all of the money that companies are investing in OpenAI is being used BY OpenAI to purchase products and compute from the investor. What is happening here? https://t.co/Y29zv2WyMb " / X In silicon wafers, China's emerging local stars rattle global giants - Nikkei Asia PRESS: ONS revises down UK government borrowing after VAT error | Financial News Water bills to rise further for millions after appeal Is the AI sector now trading in bubble territory? – The Armchair Trader Elon Musk’s cheaper new Teslas aren’t much of a bargain HSBC Plans to Privatize Hong Kong Subsidiary Hang Seng Gold Holds Near Record After Torrid Rally Sparks Pullback Threat The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is incredible: It now takes 102 ounces of gold to buy the median-priced new single-family home in the US, the lowest amount in 46 years. Excluding 1979, this is the lowest level in at least 65 years. The ratio has fallen by -180 ounces over the last 3 years, as gold https://t.co/0kH4Q2WMpN " / X JUNK BOND ANALYST (SPOOKY) 👻 on X: "*FIRST BRANDS CREDITOR SAYS UP TO $2.3 BILLION 'SIMPLY VANISHED', SEEKS INVESTIGATION Raistone, a provider of short-term financing that worked on deals for First Brands, is demanding an independent examiner be appointed in the Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings after alleging https://t.co/mNWfZBRW6G " / X GOLDMAN SACHS: NO STOCK BUBBLE YET Goldman Sachs says the market shows some bubble-like signs but remains driven by strong fundamentals. Tech valuations are high, but leading firms are financially solid, and the AI sector is still concentrated among major players. The bank says valuations aren’t at historic bubble levels yet but urges investors to stay diversified. Madagascar Gen Z protests: Andry Rajoelina asks for one year to resolve problems or he will resign

Markets : 7th day of US Govt shutdown ( Oct. 15th is the date, when 1.3 million Defense Department paychecks are due to bounce if no deal ) , German IP -4.3% in Aug (auto sector -18.5% - U.S. market too, 2025 on course for the Highest Auto repossession volume in recorded history , nearly 3mio cars set to be seized — CUReposession ), GOLD $4'000, silver $50+ soon, XPT, PALL, Copper all up, with 3Q reporting season to kick off in the US next week, Goldman Sachs notes that the S&P 500 is again expected beat consensus EPS estimates. Management commentary around capex and AI infrastructure demand will be crucial to the sustainability of the AI trade, and the new JPN leader failed to reach agreement on maintaining two parties coalition >>> FED cuts won't help fix bankruptcies in auto loans or student loan delinquencies, tricky period ahead Geopolitics : Trump no longer intends to pursue a diplomatic agreement with Venezuela, a military conflict becomes more and more likely, Hamas reveals its ceasefire conditions as Trump expresses optimism for ‘peace in Middle East’, Zelensky accuses Putin of using oil tankers for spying and sabotage missions Trade : EU to halve steel import quotas to preserve domestic industry UBS Fund's 30% Stake in First Brands Group #riskconcentration ! Fed governor Stephen Miran backed continued rate cuts, warning that policy risked being too tight in the face of slowing momentum For everyone hung up on Polymarket odds (or CDS implied default risk) remember- Implied probability is not actual probability. This applies across all financial markets. Which are full of sleeping racehorses/Thread OpenAI deals scepticism |  A wave of deals involving Nvidia and OpenAI is sparking concerns that an increasingly complex web of transactions is artificially propping up the trillion-dollar AI boom. (BBG) The US stock market capitalization-to-GDP ratio is up to a record 221% The government shutdown is approaching a major deadline LDP, Komeito Punt Agreement on Maintaining Ruling Coalition | Nippon.com What Takaichi's Victory Means for Japan New Zealand delivers outsized cut in bid to boost growth UBS Fund's 30% Stake in First Brands Group: A Risk Concentration Crisis in Disguise Gold prices keep hitting records. Wall Street is worried Not just Gold, XAG, XPT, PALL etc... Trump-Gaza live: Hamas reveals its ceasefire conditions as Trump expresses optimism for ‘peace in Middle East’ Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky accuses Putin of using oil tankers for spying and sabotage missions Lisa Abramowicz on X: "Central banks have been accelerating their purchases of gold since 2022. And retail investors are following suit, with gold-linked ETFs receiving a record $33 billion of inflows last month: Morningstar data https://t.co/asA6xLf6fz https://t.co/Eel4A7pMIl " / X Should you be investing in the copper boom? – The Armchair Trader Oracle stock slips on report company seeing thin Nvidia chip margins 111000/1 bet - nice one Ferrari-loving UK bond trader sued over botched $2.6B COVID bet that burned Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi: report Let's talk about co-CEOs: When 2 people are in charge So true Polemic Paine on X: "For everyone hung up on Polymarket odds (or CDS implied default risk) remember- Implied probability is not actual probability. This applies across all financial markets. Which are full of sleeping racehorses. Prices on their odds of winning the next race oscillate on whispers," / X U.S. air traffic control staffing hit for second day, delaying flights Google set to bet big on India with $10 billion Visakhapatnam data hub plan - The Economic Times Charlie Bilello on X: "56k US home purchases were canceled in August, which equates to 15% of all homes under contract. That's the highest cancellation percentage on record for the month of August. https://t.co/0NhWkt9Z8y " / X

Markets : Japan’s Iron Maiden Needs to Fire Abe’s Last Arrow , U.S. takes 10% stake in Trilogy now (U.S Administration now own 15% in AP Materials, 10% in Lithium America, a golden share in US Steel and floating the idea of stakes in defense contractors..) >>> Globally, the entire world is on the ‘Run it Hot’ path (from China, US to Japan again ''not to prioritize fiscal consolidation over growth'', all populist ideas, no--one wins a mandate by calling for huge spending cuts...debasement, hard assets up etc), more debt, run it hot !, PTJ interview below (6mins of it) ''blow up top alla 1999 and then down''... it all looks so lined up, most of us would agree.. non?... that all said, one never really quite know if/when it'll turn, so go with the flows... Geopolitics : If Trump convinces China to abandon force against Taiwan he deserves Nobel prize, Taiwan president says Trade : Trump imposing new 25% large truck tariff starting Nov. 1 Moody’s Mark Zandi says the U.S. is “on the precipice” of a damaging contraction The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is paring down nearly all community bank regulatory measures not required by law, leaving it up to examiners to determine applicable requirements, routine move ? cutting red tape, easing risk models' rules >>> when rules are loosened, it can be a sign the supervisors giving themselves room to intervene, where and when required...smooth over losses ( commercial real-estate and loan books built during low int rate times few years ago) Partner Content: Chinese firm Sea Legend is piloting a new Arctic shipping route from China to Europe with Felixstowe in Suffolk as its first European hub The route is set to take 18 days instead of the typical 40, cut emissions by 50%, and could position the UK at the forefront of a "new maritime era" China again doubled down on solar in the first half of 2025, adding in 6 months more than America has built in its entire history Shutdown negotiations |  Donald Trump opened the door to a possible end to the shutdown impasse by saying he’d negotiate with Democrats on health care subsidies, but later signaled he’d only talk once the government reopened. The Senate again rejected a stopgap bill. (BBG) Gold is tactically ‘overbought’ but structurally ‘under-owned’; gold = 0.4% of private client AUM, 2.4% of institutional AUM-BofA French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigns after less than a month - BBC News Are we in a recession? Yes — if you live in one of these 22 states. - MarketWatch OCC to dramatically reduce community bank regulation | American Banker China–Europe Arctic Shipping Route Could Boost UK Trade L... Paul Tudor Jones: Ingredients are in place for massive rally before a ‘blow off’ top to bull market | Watch Japan's Iron Maiden Needs to Fire Abe's Last Arrow - Bloomberg The woman poised to be Japan's first female prime minister faces challenges Gold Moves Closer to $4,000 on US Shutdown and French Crisis AMD inks chip deal with OpenAI that triggers explosive rally OpenAI signs huge chip deal with AMD, and AMD stock soars Ford F-150 Faces Fresh Setback After Blaze Knocks Out Key Aluminum Supplier in New York Until Next Year: Report Aston Martin abandons hopes for positive cash flow in 2H – The Armchair Trader US to Take 10% Stake in Trilogy Metals to Unlock Alaska Mining Another 10% stake for the U.S govt, problem solved! and get a few insiders in early no doubt UBS HR verlagert Spezialisten-Jobs nach Polen – Inside Paradeplatz Tesla stock climbs on videos hinting possible new car launch Arnaud Bertrand on X: "China again doubled down on solar in the first half of 2025, adding in 6 months more than America has built in its entire history. They're literally growing at a rate of 2 United States a year. Which raises an interesting question for the many people out there who, like Trump, https://t.co/Z3Yq8Osqqi " / X

Takaichi's win to support Japanese stocks but weigh on yen and bonds and French PM resigns after 1month in place... all these events are about populist ideas, more spending, more debt, debasement .....Macron must realize that that maybe it was not such a great idea to organize elections and ignore what the folks are actually voting for.. Markets : The Nikkei surged 5% to a record above 48,000 after Sanae Takaichi’s leadership win fuelled expectations of fiscal stimulus and delayed BOJ rate hikes, FED minutes on Wednesday, Macron loyalist picked to fix budget mess in new French government, JPN 30y yields up 12bps to new record of 3.28% #duration risk again! no wonder precious metals keep on going, BTC new highs, and overall global equity markets higher Geopolitics : Trump warns Hamas, again, as ceasefire talks begin in Egypt, A massive fire has erupted at the largest oil terminal in occupied Crimea, Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.7%, the highest level in history Venture capitalists have poured a record $192.7 billion into AI startups YTD French PM Lecornu resigns hours after naming government Takaichi's win to support Japanese stocks but weigh on yen and bonds - The Japan Times Macron loyalist picked to fix budget mess in new French government Ukraine-Russia war latest: Five dead in mass missile and drone attack by Putin’s forces after Poland scrambles jets Trump urges mediators to 'move fast' as key Gaza peace talks set to begin - BBC News Trump warns Hamas faces ‘complete obliteration’ if group clings to power as US negotiators arrive in Egypt to push ceasefire deal | The Independent Fewer people are able to save money in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Gold vs Bitcoin: Which will be the winner from the dollar's decline? – The Armchair Trader Gold hits record high as U.S. government shutdown dents risk appetite Bitcoin Crosses Fresh Record as ‘Uptober’ Narrative Takes Hold 5 smart tax moves you should make before the end of 2025 Government launches major home-buying reform | Property Reporter Is Palantir Stock a Buy After Falling Sharply on Friday? Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ on X: "There will be a surge of trucking bankruptcies over the next year. Many of the small and midsize truckers hired non-domiciled CDLs and drivers without work permits. The Administration's outlawing of this practice will put these carriers into bankruptcy. The carriers hired https://t.co/9GD5ttxfcX " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is incredible: Venture capitalists have poured a record $192.7 billion into AI startups YTD. This puts 2025 on track to be the first year where more than 50% of total VC dollars flow into the AI industry. In the US, AI’s share of venture deals has surpassed 60% over the https://t.co/DAmpHHmUNM " / X

Russia’s drone mothership causing mayhem around Europe Markets : Weekend votes ‘unlikely,’ Thune says, meaning shutdown could push into next week, Bessent says to "expect news" on tariff bailout for farmers on Tuesday ( Washington is quietly socializing the losses created by its own trade policy, once you start, it never ends..) , US hiring plans sink to lowest since 2009 in Sep, Trump considering $2,000 tariff ‘dividend’ for Americans, markets like shutdowns! rate cuts coming, low bond vols, and even $2000 check in the post soon, the 'debasement trade' full on, gold, btc, silver, equity, hard assets (big picture, still new FED chair to come, YCC by treasury etc ), while 'private markets' struggle (KKR, Apollo, Ares etc), US technology stocks now account for a record 56% of total US stock market cap. At the same time, defensive stocks make up just 16%, AN ALL-TIME LOW, This has NEVER happened, US got offers to buy eq in Oz critical minerals companies ! UBS Group AG, Funds under UBS Group AG face more than half a billion dollars of exposure to bankrupt auto-parts supplier First Brands Group through various investment strategies. UBS Hedge Fund Solutions is the largest unsecured creditor with a $233.7 million claim, while O'Connor has a similar claim for $116.1 million Germany: In the first quarter of this year alone, we had over 530 drone overflights attributed to russia over German critical infrastructure. Power plants, hospitals, military facilities. And it's being kept quiet so as not to alarm the population - WELT China Opens World’s Tallest Bridge, Coffee Shop Included U.S Beef prices hit record high as nationwide cattle inventory drops to lowest level in 70 years Tracked: Russia’s drone mothership causing mayhem around Europe These sectors feel could feel a U.S. government shutdown Trump farm bailout news coming Tuesday, Bessent says US offers to buy stakes in Australian critical minerals companies Trump considering $2,000 tariff ‘dividend’ for Americans OpenAI Valuation Reaches $500 Billion, Topping Musk’s SpaceX US hiring plans sink to lowest since 2009 in September as labor market slowdown continues BOJ's Ueda warns of global uncertainty, keeps markets guessing on next hike | Reuters Weekend votes ‘unlikely,’ Thune says, meaning shutdown could push into next week - Live Updates - POLITICO First Brands bankruptcy exposes UBS funds to over $500 million - Bloomberg By Investing.com Ukraine-Russia war latest: Putin says ‘impossible to believe’ Moscow wants a war but warns Trump of escalation Gaza latest: Protests erupt around world after Israel detains Greta Thunberg on aid flotilla | World News | Sky News EndGame Macro on X: "Trump floating a $10B farm bailout echoes an old pattern in U.S. history. Tariffs drive retaliation, exports get hit, and the government steps in with subsidies to patch the damage. We saw this dynamic in the 1930s after Smoot-Hawley tariffs, when collapsing agricultural exports https://t.co/upMYwMuIRu " / X Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 on X: "When BHP accepts Renminbi (RMB, Chinese Yuan) as payment for iron ore, typically from Chinese buyers, the company must manage these funds in alignment with its financial strategy, operational needs, and the regulatory constraints of operating in China and Australia. While" / X China Opens World’s Tallest Bridge, Coffee Shop Included

Did Trump's tariffs bring down First Brand Group. ..? quite likely. . ''Supply change finances''....and how quickly it unfolded. ..You wonder why gold and silver rallied non stop, defaults are spreading : 117 large corporate bankruptcies in last 12 months 44% above 20-year average; 32 mega bankruptcies vs. 23 average Market narrative remains like.. “Corporate resilience!” ...if it wasn't for AI... Markets : U.S Govt officially shuts down (not necessarily bearish for equity, BUT what matters is the 2nd order, what happens in 1w, 2weeks..), Corp share buyback blackout of 90%+ until 24th October, remember CTA's will wait to see selling, before they sell, been a huge quarter-end demand in precious metals and GDX etc, now OPEX and a load of dealer gamma expiring so DO watchout going into October (so watch out if vols are 'obnormally' soft..ie could bounce pretty easily from here), US Equity raising TOPS $255 Billion after standout Quarter , US bonds bid on shutdown, NVDA $4.5trn market cap, Pfizer agrees (forced) to lower U.S drug prices (exemt of tariffs), Trade : China has not bought a single soybean from the U.S. in over 3 months , thanks to Trump's disastrous tariffs, Trump-"Will go after cartels in Venezuela by land.", Geopolitics : Venezuelan opposition leaders are in talks with the Trump Administration discussing the possible overthrow of Maduro - New York Times, Maduro expands his powers, Ukraine-Russia latest: Putin realises he can’t win war against Ukraine, Trump’s envoy says, Hamas set to respond to peace plan after Trump threatens ‘very sad end’ Trump: “My plan calls for the creation of a new international oversight body, the Board of Peace…It will be headed by a gentleman known as President Donald J. Trump.”, after y'day 'army' chat, seems quite clear they really going for it, authoritarian approach pretty clear, even weaponizing the military and send them in various U.S places India's September gold, silver imports nearly double despite record prices >>> in the late 1998 South East Asia currency crisis, the likes of Indonasia, Korea, Russia, India even had to pledge gold for USD funding back then, now they buying.. & others sold some of their Gold reserves to raise USDs (and of course BoE and other european CB's..).... this is/has been a 180c opposite flow and a huge signal (Miran's plan.. debasement currencies, MMT etc..which has been clear for one year now..) Boston Fed President Collins sees caution on future interest rate cuts, Fed's Jefferson: Impact of administration policy is still evolving How First Brands Group collapsed    Trump seems to have blown them up with his tariffs - 3minutes video, well worth listening too junkbondinvestor on X: "117 large corporate bankruptcies in last 12 months 44% above 20-year average; 32 mega bankruptcies vs. 23 average Market narrative: “Corporate resilience!” https://t.co/5MpVqt9gmK " / X U.S. Job Openings Rise Slightly in August as Hiring Remains Steady Bank of England’s Breeden says inflation ‘hump’ is transitory Japan business mood improves, clears another hurdle for BOJ rate hike | Reuters BHP Shares Tumble as China Halts Iron Ore Purchases | OilPrice.com Ukraine-Russia latest: Putin realises he can’t win war against Ukraine, Trump’s envoy says Trump-Gaza live: Hamas set to respond to peace plan after US president threatens ‘very sad end’ Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro expands his powers in case US attacks | World News | Sky News Trump, Pfizer announce agreement to lower U.S. drug prices U.S. Equity Raising Tops $255 Billion As Recovery Hits Third Year Ron Filipkowski on X: "This is the cringiest MF on the planet. He’s actually saying this to our most senior military officers from around the world. https://t.co/BxEjiuVEBu " / X Pentagon Aides Expose Pete Hegseth’s ‘Manic’ Meltdowns India's September gold, silver imports nearly double despite record prices, sources say China curbs strategic non-ferrous metals sector in fight against cutthroat competition | South China Morning Post Boston Fed President Collins sees caution on future interest rate cuts Soybeans sacrificed in Trump’s China gamble - POLITICO Why Trump's new timber tariffs could raise the price of US housing Trump complained about 'foreign wars'. Is he creating one with Venezuela? – Firstpost Visioner on X: "‼️‼️‼️🇺🇲 BREAKING - US-based company Epirus successfully demonstrated Anti-swarm technology LEONIDAS by disabling 49 drones in a single shot. In the previous month, the system showcased its ability to detect and engage drones from multiple unknown directions, disabling a total https://t.co/HNZrlgq1BM " / X

'Could be devastating': US soybean Farmers warn of bankruptcies amid trade shift, according to the US Secretary of Agriculture herself, Trump's bailout of Argentina means that US taxpayers are now effectively subsidizing Argentinian soybean exports to China - the very market American farmers have been shut out of Markets : No Friday NFP (and other data) if U.S Govt shuts down, countdown is on, S&P 500 executed buybacks are now > $1 trillion YTD, U.S farmers, car sector First Brands files for bankruptcy) under real pressure , RBA unch as expected (sticky! inflation worries - across board, not just Australia), Switzerland agrees with US not to manipulate its currency, Open AI annual sales $8.6bn, Market valuation $500bn and high cash burn (it is all ok until it isn't) >>> markets look a little 'overcooked, AI thematic mainly, HSI on highs, GDX and the likes have had a superb run, we've taken some profit on longs there, got a little overdone into quarter-end, a correction would be welcome! but overall on ehas to 'own' assets in this new era of monetary policy/debasement currencies etc Geopolitics : Tusk: “The war in Ukraine is our war”, ''' Ukraine should not behave as if it is independent. If the West does not give it money, it will disappear, it will be the end-says Orban.... Hungary is reliant on the same West for its economy and protection... During meeting with Trump, Netanyahu agrees to U.S. peace plan for Gaza, Trade : Trump is imposing a 100% tariff on any movies made outside of the US (?), more tariffs on timber, furniture... The Met Police has made the single largest cryptocurrency seizure in the world, currently worth more than £5.5 billion, Rachel Reeves will be happy #budget Outspoken, Alex Karp has laid out a rescue plan for EU... He warns that Europe risks losing its industrial heart. Years of wrong decisions in energy, immigration, and technology now demand courage, toughness, and honesty. Karp offers Germany 5 uncomfortable truths:  Bring entrepreneurs into politics, Establish special zones for technology, Play to Germany’s strengths, Acknowledge that this is a crisis, Rebuild deterrence Gold hit a new record. What Deutsche Bank says is driving the price of the metal: Hartnett explains the rise in precious metals as driven by inflationary policies, a return of a "bull market in war." He justified staying long gold even though its "tactically overbought" because it remains "structurally under-owned" at just 0.4% of Bank of America's private client wealth and 2.4% of institutional assets under management Trump says he will not give federal funding to NYC if Mamdani is elected. "Remember he needs the money from me... He won't be getting any of it." We're now living in a full-blown authoritarian dictatorship. First of all, that's not his money. And NY pays more to the federal government than it receives Barrick CEO Mark Bristow resigns (immediately, without explanation). Newmont Mining CEO Tom Palmer announces his retirement (end of year) and gold's up another $58 to a record $3,824, as the melt-up continues >>>> it's not anymore about cutting cost and low production, it is now full on new 'debasement' world and higher production...long-term bullish but we've reached some pretty hefty levels by the end of Q3 ! Ukraine-Russia war latest: Germany says Europe and Russia ‘no longer at peace’ while Putin plans huge conscription Australia keeps policy rate steady at 3.6% as inflation worries loom Switzerland agrees with US not to manipulate its currency Inflation won't fall to 2% for 2 more years, Fed's Hammack says During meeting with Trump, Netanyahu agrees to U.S. peace plan for Gaza Trump meeting ends: No government shutdown deal Labor Dept. won't release jobs report, other data in case of shutdown SEC to fast-track Trump’s plan to scrap quarterly earnings reports Mark Bristow in shock departure from Barrick Mining - Miningmx Etsy pops 16% as OpenAI announces ChatGPT Instant Checkout for the shopping site OpenAI revenue grows 16% in H1 2025, cash burn persists- The Information By Investing.com 'Could Be Devastating': US Soybean Farmers Warn of Bankruptcies Amid Trade Shift First Brands files for bankruptcy, revealing billions of dollars in liabilities Politics UK on X: "🚨 NEW: The Met Police has made the single largest cryptocurrency seizure in the world, currently worth more than £5.5 billion" / X „Sprecht endlich von Krise“ – Palantir-Chef Alex Karp liest Deutschland die Leviten - WELT NEXTA on X: "🇵🇱Tusk: “The war in Ukraine is our war” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk issued a stark warning to the West: the war in Ukraine is not someone else’s tragedy but a shared struggle that affects us all here and now. He stressed that Europeans must stop seeing the conflict as https://t.co/QUdNhexebP " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is legit hilarious: according to the US Secretary of Agriculture herself, Trump's bailout of Argentina means that US taxpayers are now effectively subsidizing Argentinian soybean exports to China - the very market American farmers have been shut out of. All the funnier when https://t.co/71oBWi7T7L " / X Equity bulls emerge from the shadows and Gold rally broadens – The Armchair Trader