UN security Council emergency meeting / AMZN + RIO / #RARE / CHINA $CNH interventions! / PIMCO shift on US
- Stéphan
- 3 days ago
- 4 min read
Markets : #USD Donald Trump’s ‘unpredictable’ policies to fuel multiyear shift from US/Pimco (turned seller of US equities)....just wait until we get to midterms.., he also threatened the use of the Insurrection Act (MUSK pushing..), #RARE White House seeks critical minerals import reductions, FED cut only in 2nd half of 2026, AMZN & Rio Tinto when tech and mining meet !, China FX interventions in Dec were MASSIVE-Thread, BofA: No signs of pulling back…Hyperscalers expected to spend $400bn in 2025 and $510bn in 2026 (A lot more debt to be issued..) >>> bonds quiet (long-end ticked ticked up a little), FX pretty quiet, USD back to early Dec levels, USDCNH 6.96 still though (key...without interventions, USDCNH would and should be a lot lower..), software stocks hammered (AI comes for free..), OIL vs Gold relative price (Crude too cheap-chart), Cocoa prices 2y lows! choccy lovers rejoice
Trade : Everyone expected tariffs to reduce the current account deficit and restore US jobs. But the numbers tell a different story/Thread, France warns US that Greenland seizure would endanger EU trade-FT, Xi hails 'turnaround in China-Canada ties
Geopolitics : for the first time, Europe has blocked Russian access to the Baltic Sea (could be seriously bad for Putin), U.S-Iran...The strike was real. The reversal was real. This is state-level controlled ignition (Thread) Iran blinked. Trump flexed. But neither side collapsed. This was a trial run, the US gained full-spectrum data on Iranian readiness, US forces seize a sixth Venezuela-linked oil tanker in Caribbean Sea, EU ‘membership-lite’ plan for Ukraine-FT, Iran won’t lift the internet shutdown until at least mid-March, according to IranWire. That is completely insane.
Both Fannie and Freddie report Multifamily Delinquencies rise again, hit new Post-Great recession high
GOLD : In case you missed it. The four countries that bought the most gold over the past 25 years were dismissed as only ‘a small number of countries’ with a declining preference for the dollar in a paper by the Federal Reserve. The countries referred to: China India Russia Turkey
US data centers will consume nearly 10% of the entire US power grid by 2030. This is 4 TIMES the percentage seen in China
This is the perhaps best illustration that Trump's new "Monroe doctrine" is objectively achieving the exact opposite of what it intends.
George Noble on X: "I JUST BROKE DOWN THE REAL NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S TARIFFS Everyone expected tariffs to reduce the current account deficit and restore US jobs. But the numbers tell a different story. China just posted a $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. The biggest in history. Up 20% from https://t.co/ApGjeHbEin" / X
Markets can price risk. They cannot price uncertainty. Right now markets are complacent. The VIX is subdued. Credit spreads are tight. But if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs, uncertainty escalates dramatically. No one knows what happens to the $195 billion already collected. No one knows if companies get refunds. No one knows what Trump's next move is if he loses this authority.
Brad Setser on X: "It has been a while since anyone posted a jaw dropping intervention number. China's December intervention was done through the backdoor (the state banks) but it was massive -- $100b in spot purchases, $120b in spot and in new (net) forwards ... https://t.co/g4X5KDO8HH" / X
Germany has denied entry into the Baltic Sea to the Cameroon-flagged tanker "shadow tanker" Tavian. Russia only has 2% of the Baltic coast, while NATO has the rest. A full blockade would have Putin on his knees
There's a widespread view that G10 countries can't have debt crises because their central banks can print money and cap yields. It's not that simple. Japan is capping yields but that means its currency is falling sharply. The end of the road in the G10...
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