top of page

Trump 'U-turns' on Greenland, Iran & even Powell / Crude -5% / JPM -5% on earnings, Commods, energy super cycle

  • Writer: Stéphan
    Stéphan
  • 5 hours ago
  • 4 min read

  • Ex GOOG CEO, Eric Schmidt: “Electricity is the natural limit for AI.” Everybody at the frontiers of the AI is saying the same thing: Power is the limiting factor/Thread-video

  • Markets : U.S : The Nov. PPI YoY prices+3%, versus exp of 2.7%, crude down 5% as Trump said he got assurances that the 'killings' have stopped and there are no plans for executions in Iran, he also dais suddenly he has no plan to fire Powell, and apparently he never said he wanted to take Greenland :-) The FED's $420 Billion Wall Street bailout (again..), USD index trading around 50 and 200dma levels (vols super low if you looking for a sudden move), Fed’s Beige Book shows economy picking up >>>> 'ENERGY' equity breaking up #XLE (huge opportunity-see Eric Schmidt below..), JPM was down 5% after earnings, bonds and FX super quiet still, BTC bounced 10pct off Dec lows too, beware second half correction in Jan, after a 'euphoriac' start to the year

  • Geopolitics : Iranian cargo ship Rona has reportedly sunk in the Caspian Sea which was carrying significant weapons cargo to Russia, Denmark’s Foreign Minister after the Greenland meeting: “It’s clear the president has a wish to conquer Greenland.” That’s not diplomacy. That’s colonial language, out loud, German Troops will arrive in Greenland tomorrow, under Danish command., beyond the push for a European Army, the EU just reclassified nuclear weapons as acceptable investment under its ESG finance framework, Son of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempting to seek refuge in Dubai (and others it seems, also huge cash transfers out of Iran, banks collapsing, approaching end game it seems), Saudi Arabia has formally informed Washington that it will not permit United States military aircraft to use Saudi airspace for any strikes against Iran.

  • Germany's Merz admits: It was a serious strategic mistake to exit nuclear energy

  • The US collected a record $267 billion in customs duties in 2025, x higher than in 2024

  • Carney government in talks with China about EV tariffs, this would be a massive win for Beijing and one of the fastest ways Canada could fight back against Trump...

  • Rick Rieder of BlackRock says steady CPI data show inflation is “yesterday’s problem,” while labor market weaknesses are now the Fed’s bigger concern. He notes recent strong economic growth has not translated into job gains, a trend the Fed is likely watching closely

  • UK : Khan: We could be heading for new era of mass unemployment


We are in the early phase of 4th commodity super‑cycle : a rare convergence of forces with the unwinding of a 40y debt boom, de‑globalization of trade, green‑energy transition, and renewed great‑power rivalries all round the globe, not cyclical but more like long‑term shift, core repricing, debasement of currencies, fundamental repricing of monetary metals, now it's fair to say we already have had to huge move since focusing on this last 1-2years, but now 'energy' should be the focus too..






The BoJ is still buying lots of JGBs (blue). As long as that's going on, it makes no sense for the MoF to intervene to strengthen then Yen (black). Such intervention quite simply can't work. If Japan wants a stronger Yen, BoJ needs to stop buying JGBs...







Massive, unprecedented payouts from the New York Federal Reserve could signal that big banks are seriously short on cash, In all, the new bailouts are already 60% of the amount of the financial crisis TARP bailout.




Meanwhile the US got: • Higher prices • Broken supply chains • Angry businesses • Zero strategic wins Conclusion: Trump didn’t expose China’s weakness. He exposed how irrelevant the US market has become. MAGA hears “strength.” The world hears a declining empire screaming at countries it can no longer control.





 
 
 

Comments

bottom of page