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Today, focus is on (CET time) 11:00 EU HICP and 14:30 US PCE, and UMich later on, China markets rallying hard this morning , Tech s up most since June and Yuan strengthens to 15-month highs (USDCNH 7.07), DJ, DAX made new highs too Many commentators say the U.S economy is super strong, The U.S is running a historic deficit, never seen before outside of WW2, the GFC or Covid, if the U.S wasn't running this deficit and balance the budget, GDP would be very different (mid, this is not a U.S centric issue, similar stories in other parts of the world) China is considering allowing homeowners to refinance as much as $5.4 trillion in mortgages to lower borrowing costs for millions of families and boost consumption >>> note USDCNH on 16mos lows, is ALL or mostly about USD weakness really (long USDCNH was/is a BIG carry trades..) Equity markets rock'n roll in August, ALL or most about #VIX really, which exploded higher early August, and subsequently collapsed over last few weeks... chart here : United States Stock Market Index (USVIX) - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart ( tradingeconomics.com ) #TwoSpeedEconomy : Dollar General warns poorer US consumers are running out of money >>> ''While Wall St debates the rate of change of inflation, the average person lives its cumulative rise'' a company that never really missed, they just did, stock down 30%, brutal reaction from market Inflation in Germany fell to 1.9% in August , first time below 2% since March 2021 Saxo : Technical Update - Nvidia’s bullish trend in jeopardy after earnings – Key levels to watch! Intel Corp . is working with investment bankers to help navigate the most difficult period in its 56-year history Allstate Approved to Raise Home Insurance Rates by 34% in Wildfire-Prone California The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index dropped to -19 points in August from -17 points in July, to the lowest since the 2020 Pandemic . This is one of the 5 regional Fed surveys that have a high correlation with the nationwide ISM PMI manufacturing index data UK Police Warn Elon Musk of Legal Consequences How Russian hackers stole millions from U.S. investors/Video-CNBC report Technical analysis Nvidia lower after earnings bullish trend likely over | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 30 August 2024 | Saxo ( home.saxo ) CNY at a glance: Is the worst of China’s depreciation pressure over? | articles | ING Think The BIG surprise would by 6.50 area over next 12months #USDCNH , as markets unwind the HUGE carry trade in that pair, this would obviously influence other USD pairs and keep USD under pressure, which may actually be 'welcome' by new U.S administration The Bank of Japan is certain to raise rates further. The question is when ( cnbc.com ) >>> Dec 2024 is what markets have in sight Jesse Felder on X: ""THE peak in the AI frenzy is behind us. Unappreciated by the crowd, it occurred in late February/early March. As they always do, the worst left the party first — and dramatically so." -@Peter_Atwater https://t.co/iQHnCqLJTk https://t.co/8kXzFqSkrP " / X UK Police Warn Elon Musk of Legal Consequences ( msn.com ) UK PM warns of 'deep rot' at heart of country ( bignewsnetwork.com ) Putin's Trader: How Russian hackers stole millions from U.S. investors ( cnbc.com ) Interesting watch, if you haven't seen it already French President Macron says he was not aware of Telegram's Durov's arrival in France - SWI swissinfo.ch really... Gold in ‘stealth bull phase’ as it marks another fresh record-high settlement - MarketWatch Dollar General struggles as customers cut back on discretionary spending ( yahoo.com ) “I want to provide some additional context around what we’re seeing and hearing from our customers. The majority of them state that they feel worse off financially than they were six months ago as higher prices, softer employment levels and increased borrowing costs have negatively impacted low income consumer incentive. As a result, our core customer who contributes approximately 60% of our overall sales comes predominantly from households earning less than $35,000 annually >>>>>>>>> the two speed economy, economic headlines look good, things going ok, but underneath it isn't, top percentile distorting data and is not the same story for majority down below (to a certain extent it was ever so, probably, but it's on extremes now... If FED cuts aggressively they will help asset rip higher and benefit top percentile only, while poorest won't benefit much from any of it, since they have little or not assets, #TwoSpeedEconomy Yardeni still bullish Carl Quintanilla on X: "YARDENI: “.. many economists (and Jamie Dimon) have predicted that the consumer would soon be ‘tapped out’ .. “.. A robust jobs market, rising real wages, increased productivity, and record corporate profits and cash flow suggest the bull market has room to run.” @yardeni 🇺🇸 https://t.co/eaIffKLLPk " / X Best Buy beats earnings estimates as its sales decline stabilizes ( msn.com ) Musk beats suit over promoting Dogecoin ‘pyramid scheme’ ( yahoo.com ) really.. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger says he respects 'skepticism' from investors ( cnbc.com ) Dell earnings report Q2 2025 ( cnbc.com ) a beat Starlink's Brazilian assets blocked as Elon Musk's X faces suspension ( qz.com ) 24 hours of Trump: QAnon tributes, crude attacks and hawking pieces of his suit - The Washington Post Kamala Harris claps back at Trump’s question ‘is she Black?’ with 4-word retort in CNN interview - MEAWW News Harris defends border record, rips Trump for killing bipartisan bill ( cnbc.com ) Allstate to raise homeowners insurance rates ( yahoo.com )

Nvidia : huge number again, seems it '' failed to live up to investor hopes'', Why ? let's look into the microscope : ''hypergrowth and margins maybe topping out over next few quarters''.. . net profit margin moved down slightly to 55% in Q2 from a record 57% in Q1 (1st decline in its profit margin since Q2 2022), forecasts Q2 2025 marked the first quarter of decelerating revenue growth for #NVDA since forecast Q4 2023, and guided for further deceleration in later on next year, 'the smallest earnings beat over the past 6 quarters'' Super Micro Computer Inc.’s 10-K delay. The San Jose, California based-company’s shares plunged 19% after it said it will delay filing its annual financial disclosures and will need additional time to assess its internal controls Google has paid Apple around $120 billion since 2010 to be the default search engine on every iPhone, iPad, and Mac. According to Goldman Sachs, around $20 billion was paid just last year alone Fears of rise in UK capital gains tax trigger selling ‘frenzy’ . Wealth managers report upswing in activity as investors position themselves ahead of October Budget Kamala Harris proposes 25% tax on unrealized gains for high-net-worth individuals, risk that it can come into UK budget too (lacking details for now but plenty of talks) Nvidia beats second-quarter expectations on AI chip demand ( qz.com ) CNBCOvertime on X: "Nvidia reported a 122% revenue growth in its Q2 report, but don't expect the same in the next few years. Paul Hickey, co-founder of @bespokeinvest, explains why he thinks revenue could slow down and why you should look outside the Mag 7. $NVDA https://t.co/7C4Z4Jp44w " / X Dan Niles on X: "Following $NVDA’s results today, I thought it might be worthwhile to re-examine the current AI landscape both short-term and longer-term. I wrote on July 11th, “I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues" / X Fact Check: Posts Claim Harris Plans to Institute 25% Tax on Unrealized Capital Gains. Here's the Truth ( msn.com ) Fears of rise in UK capital gains tax trigger selling ‘frenzy’ ( ft.com ) Telegram CEO charged with allowing criminal activity by French prosecutors ( cnbc.com ) French Authorities Charge Telegram's Durov in Probe into Organised Crime on App ( chronicle.lu ) How can big data reduce shipping emissions? - Financial Times - Partner Content by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines ( ft.com ) Shinjiro Koizumi could be a top contender in Japan's leadership election ( cnbc.com ) Ukraine’s Bondholders Approve $20 Billion Debt Restructuring - Bloomberg Trump budget proposals would spike deficits 5 times more than Harris ( cnbc.com ) Gold should stay well bid in this scenario / USDollar under pressure still etc UK's Starmer warns October 30 budget will be 'painful' ( msn.com ) Preparing for the worst? Polish central bank becomes biggest buyer of gold | Euronews Super Micro shares slammed following delay in annual filing ( yahoo.com ) Mortgage rates keep falling. Homebuyers still aren't biting ( qz.com ) Schweiz: "Tages-Anzeiger" in der Krise – Leserzahlen und Werbeeinnahmen im Sinkflug — RT DE ( rtnewsde.com ) Bob Elliott on X: "Australia a case study in a central bank that has been behind the curve tackling their inflation problem. While it has come down from peak it's now stuck at 3-4%, led by a hot economy. Instead of tighter rate policy, the gov is using subsidies to bring down prices. Thread." / X

Heading into NVDA earnings after the bell tonight, it now accounts for a massive 6.5% of the S&P 500, a +/- $300bn move market cap is implied by vols, DJ made a slight new high again, SPX500 just under ATH's, markets sitting on highs on low volumes overall Hedge funds continue to cut exposure to tech / GS - lowest in years. Hedge Funds deleveraging Tech, Large-Caps, Cyclicals going underweight Mag-7 in Q3 and Hedge Funds re-leveraging Small-Caps, Energy, Utilities, Health Care in Q3 OZ CPI slightly higher at 3.5%T (exp 3.4%) Republican Donald Trump’s economic proposals would increase federal deficits by almost five times more over the next decade than those of Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, per two reports by the Penn Wharton Budget Model The BOJ’s basic stance “is that it will examine the impact of market developments and the July rate hike,” Himino (Dep Gov) The U.S Conference Board's consumer conf index improved to 103.3 in August and Durable Goods Orders for July were a very strong +9.9% the highest we’ve seen since May 2020 Meloni Seeks Budget cuts to fill Italy's €12 bn hole - Bloomberg *Coalition meeting on Friday will be first after summer break Mark Zuckerberg says White House ‘pressured’ Meta to ‘censor’ Covid-19 content Bank of America's Suttmeier "Hold on for $SPX  6,000+ by August 2025... 12 consecutive months of positive Y/Y returns point toward 6,150 by November 2025... (original April 2024 report)-Thread below Goldman: Businesses avoided reporting unauthorized immigrants to the unemployment insurance system , pushing down reported employment in last week’s benchmark revision. A proper count would have lowered the March 2024 employment level by -300K instead of -818K, so need for so many FED cuts.. The JPM Collar (JHEQX ) remains a big SPX price draw in the short term/B.Balan Stock Markets: Everyone's waiting for Nvidia ( cnbc.com ) Fed cuts may send $1 trillion FX ‘avalanche’ to China, Jen says ( msn.com ) USDollar/CNH...well off highs 7.30 to 7.10....6.50 next up medium term ? here is the story! >>> one could add this in the 'consensus CNH shorts' that was built together with short JPY last few years (carry trade - in other words..) Robert P. Balan on X: "The JPM Collar (JHEQX ) remains a big SPX price draw in the short term" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Nvidia, $NVDA, earnings are coming tomorrow. As we head into earnings, $NVDA now accounts for a massive 6.6% of the S&P 500. Since the ChatGPT launch in November 2022, the share has increased FIVEFOLD. To put this into perspective, Nvidia’s market cap was $290 billion before https://t.co/lebxqfKHOk " / X Trump budget proposals would spike deficits 5 times more than Harris ( cnbc.com ) BOJ Deputy Governor Sees Rate Hike Justified If Outlook Realized - Bloomberg Meloni Seeks Budget Cuts to Fill Italy’s €12 Billion Hole - Bloomberg Durable Goods Orders Increase Highest Since May 2020 ( yahoo.com ) Mark Zuckerberg says the Biden administration 'repeatedly pressured' Meta to censor COVID-19 posts ( qz.com ) Icahn Enterprises Declines 12% on Stock Sale Plans ( msn.com ) Goldman, BASF, Others in $20 Million Platinum, Palladium Price-Fixing Settlement ( usnews.com ) 10years later.. Seth Golden on X: "Bank of America's Suttmeier "Hold on for $SPX 6,000+ by August 2025... 12 consecutive months of positive Y/Y returns point toward 6,150 by November 2025... (original April 2024 report) "I may have underestimated the strength of this bull, and not considered markets ability to https://t.co/2fiYUtLdPV " / X Seth Golden on X: "Goldman Sachs: 📣Hedge Funds deleveraging Tech, Large-Caps, Cyclicals going underweight Mag-7 in Q3 📣Hedge Funds re-leveraging Small-Caps, Energy, Utilities, Health Care in Q3 📣Hedge Funds adding to AAPL $SPX $SPY $QQQ $UNH $IWM $RTY $XLE $AAPL https://t.co/In3diXmE8P " / X China to see biggest millionaire exodus in 2024 as many head to U.S. - Nikkei Asia

Macron rules out left-wing government for France, in communiqué Macron rejects a government led by the New Popular Front (NPF), unprecedented situation in the history of the 5th Republic..... and Very serious charges against Telegram's CEO Pavel Durov, see below >>> all social media platform CEO's watching with high interest.....risk they could eventually face a similar 'forensic test' in future ? Zuckerberg regrets working with the Biden-Harris administration to censor Covid era information online >>> translation, he fears a Trump return... Middle East tensions on highs and UKR/RU firing another huge wave of strikes Soft landing euphoria from most economists and strategists reached new highs over the last 48hours, while we all agree a few cuts are coming, no doubt, maybe 100bps over 12months, absolutely, but IMHO it will be hard to deliver the 200bps of cuts already priced in together with an expected 12-15% increase in earnings over the next 12months... FED's Daly agreed with the chairman that ‘the time to adjust policy is upon us’, she also said that it’s too early to know the pace of coming rate cuts - pushing back on questions around current market pricing – hasn’t seen signs of ‘real’ weakness in labour markets. Markets pricing and pundit euphoria about a soft landing reached a fevered pitch following JP's JH speech on Friday. While a cut is the next step, it is very unlikely that 200bps of cuts and mid-double digit earnings growth will come together in the next 12months Canada to slap 100% import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles over ‘unfair' competition SPX500/QQQ pretty low volumes, losing a little momentum after the huge rally in Aug and ahead of previous ATH's, DJ made a new ATH yesterday though, markets steady ahead of NVDA will will decide the fate of everything Wednesday evening! >>> big picture, if/when the FED is cutting, it is because of slower growth, thus should reinforce rotation out of hyper growth stories-QQQ and more value based stories/solid dividend and balance-sheets names, the more they have to cut, the slower growth signals it will be and thus accentuate this big rotation Russia-Ukraine war latest: At least four people killed as Russia hits Ukraine with another wave of strikes - BBC News Nightmare scenario in Middle East appears to be fading - but great danger lies ahead ( msn.com ) Fed’s Daly Agrees With Powell View That It’s Time to Cut Rates ( yahoo.com ) Vitor Constâncio on X: "In Jackson Hole, Chair Powell announced the start of a new cycle of rate cuts, putting an end to the inflation episode since 2021. It is, therefore, time to draw some lessons for economics, economists and monetary policy. 1/" / X Exclusive: Top US general says risk of broader war eases a bit after Israel-Hezbollah exchange | Reuters How low do mortgage rates need to go to bring homebuyers back? – My Blog ( reventureapp.blog ) Canada to slap 100% import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles over ‘unfair’ competition – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth ( nbcdfw.com ) Macron rules out left-wing government for France, political deadlock continues ( yahoo.com ) >>> in communiqué Macron rejects a government led by the New Popular Front (NPF), unprecedented situation in the history of the 5th Republic.. Macron rejects left’s PM candidate, keeping governance talks stalled – POLITICO And 2024-08-26 - CP TELEGRAM .pdf ( justice.fr ) >>> These are very serious charges. The fact that the investigation is taking place under JUNALCO (investigating judges, the highest court in France), shows its highest level. House Judiciary GOP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 on X: "Mark Zuckerberg just admitted three things: 1. Biden-Harris Admin "pressured" Facebook to censor Americans. 2. Facebook censored Americans. 3. Facebook throttled the Hunter Biden laptop story. Big win for free speech. https://t.co/ALlbZd9l6K " / X Wealth Managers in Risk-On Mode After Jackson Hole Speech ( finews.asia ) Everybody seems to agree and have the same view, which is when one has to be vigilant, if sentiment changes, data more key than ever The US is ready with a Gold revaluation mechanism too ( fxstreet.com ) Nicely put together Bob Elliott on X: "Markets pricing and pundit euphoria about a soft landing reached a fevered pitch following JP's JH speech on Friday. While a cut is the next step, it is very unlikely that 200bps of cuts and mid-double digit earnings growth will come together in the next 12m. Thread." / X How centuries of Swiss emigrants left their mark on the US - SWI swissinfo.ch

FED : ''dovish pivot okay'', Powell said 'The time has come for cuts', confirming rate cuts coming, not when and not by how much, data dependent etc (all this is with 100bps priced in for 2024 already), and SPX on ATH's, credit spread pretty much at record tight, inflation around 2.5% and employment levels considered at maximum for most of the last 50years >>> asset boom most likely (unless we move to a risk of a bigger slowdown) sacrificing government finance/debt, throwing out most of the 'normal' FED reaction function BoJ's Ueda was slightly hawkish, could very well be another hike coming in Dec >>> #USDJPY remains a sell on any rallies Arrest of Telegram founder/CEO (who has a multitude of citizenships) sparks debate about free speech and criminal activity online. UKR/RU (Durov's arrest-consequences , energy assets bombed again and again) & Middle East tensions remain as Israel and Hezbollah 'trade messages urging against escalation' after airstrike The NVDA print is hyped as “the most important tech earnings in years” ...(Dan Ives) Investors are jittery. Few of the big tech companies have been able to demonstrate enormous demand from paying customers for AI-powered services, which raises the question of how long they’ll keep pouring money into the tech—most obviously, Nvidia’s chips China slams U.S. for adding firms to export control list over alleged support for Russian military US consumer serious delinquency rates (90+ days) in credit card debt have risen to 10.9%, the highest since 2011 Macron meets French party leaders to try to name a prime minister : what a mess Nestle : a case of too many share buy backs near ATH's with higher debt Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board Powell’s  speech  at Jackson Hole was dovish, emphasizing cooling labor markets and downside risks. He did not weigh in on the pace or increment of rate cuts, insisting these decisions will depend on incoming data BlackRock's Rick Rieder: The Fed should slash rates by 50 basis points ( yahoo.com ) BOJ to hike in December after Ueda's speech - Citi ( msn.com ) China slams U.S. for placing some Chinese firms on export control list ( cnbc.com ) Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "GS sees Q2 GDP (s) at 2.5% July PCE +0.13% m/m, +2.52% y/y Core PCE +0.13% m/m, +2.64% y/y https://t.co/1xe2WaYxrC " / X Nvidia second-quarter earnings are the biggest stock market event of the year, analyst says ( qz.com ) After months on the back foot, Ukraine's forces invaded its invader, pulling off a spectacular counterpunch against Russia. Here's how it happened: Ten days that turned the tables on Russia ( ft.com ) Pavel Durov: Arrest of Telegram founder sparks debate about free speech and criminal activity online | CNN Business (1) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "After Telegram founder Pavel Durov was arrested, Russian social media share the following thoughts, rumors and panic moods: ◾️Allegedly, several days ago Durov asked for a meeting with Putin in Baku and was refused. ◾️Telegram is the main information network, communications https://t.co/uK3OZOePE1 " / X Middle East latest: Israel and Hezbollah 'trade messages urging against escalation' after airstrike | World News | Sky News Second-largest diamond ever uncovered in Botswana ( qz.com ) Trump tries to reset his campaign after brutal month ( msn.com ) Macron meets French party leaders to try to name a prime minister ( msn.com ) It's a messy affair ! Ford cancels 3-row electric SUV, delays opening of new plant and full-size EV pickup ( yahoo.com ) Why the price of chocolate's key ingredient skyrocketed in 2024 ( cnbc.com ) Nestle CEO Mark Schneider steps down ( qz.com ) a great example of ridiculous sharebuybacks near all time highs + adding debts at the wrong time !! Lynch’s superyacht sank because of ultra-tall mast, says rescue skipper ( ft.com ) EURUSD - could we be breaking up ?

Powell’s Jackson Hole speeches tend to lift the stock market — but when they don’t, the drop is a doozy >>> The market has priced 6 rate cuts from the Fed between now and March 2025, SPX500 didn't quite reach ATH's yesterday, bearish candle if it follow suits today it will matter, together with possible USD strength, 'could' spoil the current bullish-nothing can go wrong sentiment - see USDJPY below Plenty of speakers lined up for later on in the day, beware of possible vol moment BOJ’s Ueda signals readiness to raise rates if growth, inflation on track Mayor of London Sadiq Khan has suggested the UK could rejoin the EU in “the medium to long term” , in a departure from Labour’s stance on Brexit S&P PMIs:  Flash PMIs were mixed, with a tick-up in headline services, but a decline in manufacturing Kennedy withdraws candidacy in Arizona on eve of big announcement Ghost jobs: What the rise in fake job listings says about the current job market >>> been going on for a long time! we were told back in the day in investment banking to always interview folks...for those dream jobs... it was simply to get client's info ''market knowledge'.. some famous U.S house were excellent at it.. BMW overtakes Tesla in European EV sales for first time, report says Sticker price at some colleges is now nearly $100,000 a year, ‘a worrisome trend,’ Swiss food multinational Nestlé has surprisingly appointed a new CEO. Laurent Freixe will take over from Mark Schneider on September 1 >>> as often discussed years ago, expensive share buy backs/higher debt not a good strategy.. Powell’s Jackson Hole speeches tend to lift the stock market — but when they don’t, the drop is a doozy - MarketWatch Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session ( cnbc.com ) BOJ’s Ueda signals readiness to raise rates if growth, inflation on track - Business & Finance - Business Recorder ( brecorder.com ) RFK Jr. withdraws from Arizona ballot on eve of election announcement ( axios.com ) Four takeaways from Kamala Harris's DNC speech - BBC News Shapiro, White House respond to Trump "highly overrated Jewish Governor" comment ( axios.com ) Modi in Ukraine: Diplomatic tightrope for Indian PM as he visits Kyiv after Moscow - BBC News China tells its citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible | The Times of Israel Artificial intelligence is losing hype ( economist.com ) How ‘green’ electricity from wood harms the planet — and people ( nature.com ) London mayor Sadiq Khan hints at Brexit disconnect with Keir Starmer | The Independent If you want some growth...help reduce volatile energy prices and reduce inflation overall... The gold storage business is booming ( qz.com ) Jesse Felder on X: "'Since 2008 or so, the underperformance of the miners versus the gold price has been very, very bad. It will take more than a quarter or two of expanding margins for the industry to regain investors' trust.' https://t.co/CZIsjMSMDK https://t.co/Y4sAqCVNQA " / X World's second-largest mined diamond found in Botswana ( telegraph.co.uk ) BMW overtakes Tesla in European EV sales for first time, report says ( yahoo.com ) Amazon must face D.C.'s antitrust lawsuit, appeals court rules ( yahoo.com ) Disney picks Morgan Stanley exec chairman to lead CEO search ( qz.com ) Nestlé appoints Laurent Freixe as new boss - SWI swissinfo.ch Financial Times on X: "This is the first such visit, made through a channel kept under wraps to avoid Chinese criticism, since Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te took office. https://t.co/imdAntCkGi https://t.co/HuzRalMTwt " / X Sticker price at some colleges is now nearly $100,000 a year ( cnbc.com ) Still time for some hols :-) The 10 best secret Mediterranean islands ( telegraph.co.uk ) #USDJPY do watch out fo a snap back if Powell isn't quite as dovish as the market has already priced in

Powell at Jackson Hole : markets have been ripping higher, back to all time highs (pretty much), Why talk 50bps ? credit spreads are just fine, bonds are steady... call for 25bps looks likely IMHO, thus 100bps is a little too much priced in for 2024.. >>> we had the fastest rally in risk (pretty much ever) last 2-3weeks with softer USD >> beware snap back the other way is Powell doesn't satisfy markets , which are hoping to hear 50bps in Sep >>> hedge USD shorts (reduce-buy USDCALLS), UST longs, and long risks going into JH Friday afternoon US PAYROLLS revised down 818K in preliminary revision (for 1y between March 2023 and 2024) >>> Ai, quantum computing, 1000's of economists and they still can't even come close to being right.. and the likes of China gets criticised for their data... (China's population is 3x bigger..), amazing really, ''the largest revision in 15years'' FOMC minutes:  The FOMC minutes to the July meeting suggested a  rate cut is likely in September . The minutes stated that “the vast majority” of participants believed that if data before September prints within expectations “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” Blackstone : Optimism and Uncertainty on the Menu for Jackson Hole - good read Ross Garnaut has cautioned Australia against putting all its eggs in the AUKUS basket at a time when relations with China are growing ever more important Citigroup Inc. says the carry trade is back, but with a key difference: hedge funds are borrowing US dollars rather than the yen for their wagers on emerging market >>> this IS a huge switch if indeed confirmed The latest independent forecasts for UK economic growth have been released, The average for 2024 is up to a new high of +1.1% - having begun the year at just +0.4%. Heading into the Budget in late October the OBR now looks a bit light at +0.8% OZ : Sun Cable: Plibersek approves first stage of world’s biggest solar and battery project Crude Oil falls to lowest price since January Federal Reserve Board - Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 30–31, 2024 Vast Majority' Saw September Cut As Likely Appropriate Downside Risks To Employment Seen As Increased Almost All' Officials Exp Continued Disinflation Saw Upside Risks To Inflation As Diminished Some Saw Higher Risk Of More Serious Labour Deterioration Ahead of Jackson Hole : Joe Zidle: Optimism and Uncertainty on the Menu - Private Wealth Solutions EMEA ( blackstone.com ) Ukraine war latest: 'Mass disruption' to messaging apps in Russia; Moscow comes under huge drone attack | World News | Sky News Decoding Kursk: Is the End in Sight in Ukraine? | Royal United Services Institute ( rusi.org ) Iran says it will not take ‘hasty action’ against Israel for killing of Hamas political leader ( msn.com ) Sun Cable: Plibersek approves first stage of world's biggest solar and battery project | RenewEconomy Understanding US Treasury Auctions What You Need to Know | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Significance of US Treasury Auctions: US Treasury auctions help fund government operations and provide a real-time indicator of investor confidence in the U.S. government's creditworthiness, with auction results influencing interest rates and impacting global financial markets. Investor Insights from Auctions: Treasury auctions offer valuable information about market dynamics, including demand for safe-haven assets, inflation expectations, and potential signals about future Federal Reserve actions. The yields and demand observed in these auctions reflect broader economic sentiments and expectations. Key Metrics to Watch: Several metrics, such as the bid-to-cover ratio, high yield, tail and stop-through, and the participation of indirect, direct, and primary dealer bidders, provide insights into the strength and nature of demand at Treasury auctions. These metrics help investors understand market appetite, potential risks, and the overall health of the bond market Why bitcoin isn’t the new gold | Post by Joseph Cavatoni, John Reade | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council As the Rich Snap Up Gold Bars, Storage Vaults Brace for Business - Bloomberg Kamala Harris raised about half a billion in a month: report ( qz.com ) Kamala Harris wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% ( qz.com ) Citi Says Hedge Funds Are Using Dollars for New Carry Trades ( yahoo.com ) Former ambassador to China speaks on AUKUS. We should listen ( crikey.com.au ) BMW recalls hit 720,000 cars due to fire risk ( qz.com ) Boeing pauses 777X test flights and faces 787 Dreamliner inspections ( qz.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Bloomberg: "A growing chorus of Chinese economists called on Beijing to break away from an implicit budget deficit ceiling, opening the door to more central government borrowing as a way to shore up the faltering economy." https://t.co/FrlWE0ms7V " / X Forecasts_for_the_UK_economy_August_2024.pdf ( publishing.service.gov.uk )

Kamala Harris will push to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from the current 21%, This has been a fairly standard Dem position since Trump cut the rate from 35% (and arguably even before then), which is not a huge surprise, they would need a Dem's congress in order to enact, as it will be a non-starter for GOP FED update : 98bps or so priced in for 2024 and about 190bps over next 12mos.. Donald Trump said he'd want Elon Musk in his Cabinet Americans paid for the Trump Tariffs—and Would Do So Again /CATO Institute Iran-backed Palestinian groups claimed responsibility for what they said was a “suicide mission” in Tel Aviv on Sunday , and warned of further such operations as long as Israel maintains its military campaign in Gaza SPX5600 : The panic round trip is over. Things from here are much more tricky. 5600, give or take, is huge, and acts as a resistance. Supports are 5500, 5450, and then the big 5400 area >>> so no rate cut needed anymore with SPX back on ATH's ?? USDollar stays soft overall, showing signs of breaking through some big tech levels, market been long USD carry for nearly 2years..GOLD keeps on trucking, Silver not far behind, and XPT too should join in >>> #GDX been lagging - better value from here together with #SILJ ECB may need to cut rates again in September, Rehn says..and EZ current account surplus at €50.5B in Jun. That's a record high >>> 1.20+ eurusd ?? 1.50 Cable ? Riksbank cuts 25bps, and opens doors to cut at each meeting this year, as expected Biden hails Harris as the future in emotional farewell ( yahoo.com ) Harris proposes raising corporate tax rate to 28% to help pay for campaign promises ( msn.com ) Donald Trump said he'd want Elon Musk in his Cabinet ( yahoo.com ) .. really.. Six hostages' bodies retrieved, Israel's military says - BBC News Iran tried to hack Trump, Harris campaigns FBI concludes ( yahoo.com ) Russia-Ukraine war live: civilians flee Pokrovsk as Russia’s army bears down on key eastern Ukraine city ( msn.com ) Americans Paid for the Trump Tariffs—and Would Do So Again | Cato at Liberty Blog ECB may need to cut rates again in September, Rehn says ( rte.ie ) Swedish central bank lowers key interest rate ( rte.ie ) Javier Blas on X: "Goldman Sachs has published a new report looking at the impact of the shift in Chinese economic growth / policy into commodities. Unsurprisingly, "ferrous metals" (aka, iron ore and steel) are the most negatively affected, echoing my @Opinion column: https://t.co/BeDwPgyCAm https://t.co/UCps2oAbT7 " / X AMD eyes Nvidia in buying ZT Systems for $4.9 billion ( qz.com ) Goldman Sachs drops recession odds to 20% on retail sales, jobless claims ( qz.com ) Stocks go down (2weeks ago), 30% chance of recession, 2weeks later stocks back up and no risk of recession... China Passes the Regional Growth Mantle to India ( finews.asia ) SEC charges Carl Icahn with hiding billions of dollars worth of stock pledges ( msn.com ) so he is charged $2 'million'.. #GDX breaking up

FOMC minutes first, then all ears and eyes this week on Jackson Hole, where the conference is called : “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” >>>> might get a clear signal for Sep FOMC meeting, although note FED is data dependent, so they will still have Sep NFP before the meeting >>> Fed Meeting Minutes - Wed, S&P Global Services PMI data and July Existing Home Sales data - Thursday 4. July New Home Sales data and Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday 6. Total of 4 Fed speaker events this week #USDollar soft overall, GOLD main conduit, note on Wed, U.S employment data will be revised down 600K to 1.2mio is the range of expectations, #USDJPY probably topped out again in resistance area 149-151 JPY. SPX500 and other indices, went from oversold/fear 5th August to well overbought by last Friday, shorts should get some interest to sell again (Powell unlikely to call and satisfy markets with a 50bps call in Sep, with over 100bps priced in for 2024, there is room for disappointment) Friedman “Not such a thing as unbalanced budget you either pay it: - via taxes - via inflation - or via borrowing, keep your eyes on one thing only, how much the government is spending” U.S debt has gone from $22trn to $35trn over the last 5years, some 60% increase, and next to nothing will be done about it (and go higher till it becomes a crisis) >>> markets beginning to price this via a softer #USDollar #GOLD making new highs etc Bernstein Reiterates Tesla As Underperform - CNBC "We don’t believe that Tesla will be able to regain share or grow materially until it launches all new, lower priced offerings – likely only in 2026 and 2027 – and believe the company’s valuation is increasingly disconnected from prevailing fundamentals." ...(like the CEO..) Nikkei Asia: " ETF gold demand reached net inflows of 48.5 tonnes, or $3.7 billion, in July , according to the World Gold Council. It was the highest level since the record 185.4 tonnes in March 2022 FED's Goolsbee said the labor market and some leading indicators on the economy are flashing warning signs, adding there are concerns unemployment will continue to rise . “Historically, if the unemployment rate starts going up, if temporary employment numbers go negative, that’s kind of a leading indicator,” Goolsbee said on National Public Radio Friday. “There are some various leading indicators of recession, and some of those are giving warning lights, but there’s cross currents” China's youth unemployment rate climbed to 17.1% in July There are 476K new homes for sale in the U.S, the highest inventory since Feb 2008 JeffCurrie / Gold, Oil, and Copper Prices Are Set to Rise, This Energy Analyst Says. What’s Driving Demand Now Taiwan's #gold reserve supports value of national currency: Central bank Ukraine says it has destroyed second Russian bridge in Kursk | Evening Standard Blinken arrives in Israel as Gaza ceasefire talks enter crucial phase ( msn.com ) Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 19 August 2024 | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Markets brace as all eyes on Federal Reserve at Jackson Hole ( msn.com ) 'Powerful Democrats' pushed President Biden out in 'coup': NYT columnist ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris wants to expand Child Tax Credit, give new parents $6,000 ( qz.com ) Harris releases economic plan aiming to lower housing costs, end price gouging ( msn.com ) >> nothing really concrete, lots of spending ideas, cut student debt, nothing about U.S debt, it will continue to go through thew roof.. #USD US secretary of state Antony Blinken travels to Israel | News UK Video News | Sky News China's youth unemployment rate climbed to 17.1% in July ( msn.com ) Gold ETF inflows reach 2-year high, driven by expected U.S. rate cut - Nikkei Asia Taiwan's gold reserve supports value of national currency: Central bank - Focus Taiwan Gold, Oil, and Copper Prices Are Set to Rise, This Energy Analyst Says. What’s Driving Demand Now. ( msn.com ) Wealth tax on super-rich could raise £1.5tn globally, campaigners say | The super-rich | The Guardian Hundreds Of Brand-New Teslas Roasting Under The Florida Sun In Overgrown Field | Carscoops Elon Musk's X is still losing advertisers — and their money ( qz.com ) Google Pixel security risk leaves millions vulnerable to hackers ( qz.com ) Ukrainian saboteurs blamed for blowing up Nord Stream pipelines ( telegraph.co.uk ) Banque Havilland: Is UBS Kicking the Owner Family Out? ( finews.asia ) David Rowland.. Der grosse UBS-Trick mit der langsamen CS-Integration – Inside Paradeplatz Another climber dies on Matterhorn in southern Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Too much traffic How Coco Chanel spent her exile in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch

S&P 500 moved into positive territory for August! only about 2% from all time highs...'' Momentum Tech has almost a full retracement and back to fully overbought'''... Remember the panic last week and calls from prominent folks for an immediate 75bps cuts ?... if any logic, there is no need for any cuts now then!! >>> strong data on retail sales and jobless claims that helped to calm the recession fears seen earlier in the month, Walmart reported better results and a strong outlook also helped overall sector, #VIX equity vols been coming off pretty sharply from 65 and back to 15, and pushed risk back higher >>> only about 35bps priced for Sep FED now >>> JACKON HOLE up next for statement of any kind Higher vols - too much leverage = forced selling/unwinding, the reverse is what we've seen last 10days... #systematicinvesting When the stock market drops like a rock, losing 12% in two weeks, then jumps 10% in the next two weeks, is this the sign of a healthy market? #NIKKEI was more like down 27% and up 25% or so Kamala Harris' plan to lower grocery bills includes a ban on corporate 'price gouging'... ''' She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed''.. Trump will be ordered to serve time in prison when he is sentenced for falsifying business records in September , a Fox News  columnist has said FT - How much will higher tariffs hurt China?. The bigger challenge the country faces is a policy-driven debt-deflation loop August BofA Global Fund Managers’ Survey/Thread #TLT Bond traders are now more bullish of 10-year Treasuries than any other period on record/Thread, and data is stronger than expected.. The UK economy grew 0.6% over three months, another solid quarter! Iranian banks hit by major cyber attack, reportedly one of largest in history UK economy grows 0.6% - as general election and strikes partially blamed for flatline in June | Business News | Sky News Wall Street follows Europe and FTSE higher as US retail sales rise more than expected ( yahoo.com ) Walmart gives big clue on chance of US recession - days after grim warning from Home Depot | This is Money Jim Bianco on X: "1/7 August BofA Global Fund Managers’ Survey, 189 mgrs/$508B AUM. We see a definite pattern: Worried about a recession Expect AT LEAST four rate cuts * Rotating out of stocks into bonds Good look into what is expected and priced into markets. Contrarians take note" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Wow. Bond traders are now more bullish of 10-year Treasuries than any other period on record. Open interest in 10-year note futures jumped to almost 5 million contracts on Tuesday, implying that traders expect further bond gains. Over the last 2 years, open interest has https://t.co/EEInf8yljv " / X The Dow jumps 300 points on strong retail sales and job growth ( qz.com ) Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway shakes up holdings as Ulta, Sirius XM, Chubb win big ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris plans to take on high grocery bills by banning 'price gouging' ( qz.com ) How much will higher tariffs hurt China? ( ft.com ) Elon Musk may have to sell billions in Tesla stock to rescue X | Fortune Trump held another press conference - but it was the same old shtick ( msn.com ) Donald Trump to Be Sentenced to Prison in September: Fox News Columnist ( msn.com ) The Telegraph on X: "📸 Watch: Donald Trump says he's ‘entitled’ to make personal attacks on Harris if he wants to https://t.co/yVokJ36niv " / X Trump’s fury over Harris’ switch with Biden is increasingly driving his campaign | CNN Politics Iranian Banks Hit By Major Cyber Attack, Reportedly One Of Largest In Histo - i24NEWS NIKKEI up over 20% in not even 10days... #marketmadness

U.S CPI ever so slightly softer than expected, 2.9% vs 3% expected >>> we already have over 2% of Fed cuts priced in till end of 2025!...with inflation 2.5-3.0% and real growth 2-3%...looks rather optimistic on total cuts? Economic conditions in China “are like a ‘harsh winter’ that will be ‘longer, colder and more difficult to endure than we expected ,’ China Baowu Steel Group Corp.chairman Hu Wangming told staff ..” Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in history , just like the original 1943 battle - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK & NATO CBRN commander writes in The Telegraph RBNZ cut 25bps to 5.25% , as broadly expected, 25bps more on each of the 3 meetings in 2024 likely, based on recent downward revisions to growth/inflation QUINNIPIAC polls Pennsylvania: “.. Trump scores poorly on most key character traits including empathy, but none so glaringly as honesty, where Harris leads by a large margin.” “She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed . And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House... I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime.” Germany to Grant Police Right to ‘Secretly’ Search Homes: Media 8/14/24 - Pennsylvania 2024: Harris Has Slight Edge Over Trump In Tight Race, Gets Boost From Women, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Senate Race: Casey Up 8 Points Over McCormick | Quinnipiac University Poll Donald Trump needs someone to tell him the truth: He’s losing ( thehill.com ) RBNZ cuts cash rate by 25 basis points; lowers rate forecasts ( cnbc.com ) NEW Cook Political Report/BSG and GS Strategy Group poll Arizona Harris 46% Trump 42% Georgia Harris 46% Trump 46% Michigan Harris 46% Trump 44% Nevada Trump 47% Harris 42% North Carolina Harris 46% Trump 44% Pennsylvania Harris 48% Trump 43% Wisconsin Harris 48% Trump 43% World’s Top Steel Producer Warns of ‘Severe’ Industry Crisis - Bloomberg Hong Kong and China stocks jump after soft July economic data bolsters stimulus bets | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk could be a turning point in history, just like the original 1943 battle - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former UK & NATO CBRN commander writes in The Telegraph. According to him, the current Ukrainian offensive will hurt Putin on many fronts: 🔹️ https://t.co/LZTMtEe5wA " / X Google could get broken up after losing DOJ's antitrust lawsuit ( qz.com ) Nord Stream: German arrest warrant for sabotage blast suspect - BBC News Stanley Druckenmiller trims holdings of ‘Magnificent Seven’ names - MarketWatch David Tepper's Strategic Moves in Q2 2024: A Deep Dive into NVIDIA's Significant Reduction ( yahoo.com ) End Tribalism in Politics on X: "Bernie Sanders explains how the government is ran by lobbyists: “Everybody knows you have a government dominated by big money interests.” “Do you know how many lobbyists there are in Washington, D.C. representing the big drug companies? 1800.” “So there are 100 members of the https://t.co/ulj3YIFmSC " / X Germany to Grant Police Right to ‘Secretly’ Search Homes: Media - Other Media news - Tasnim News Agency SPX - short again?

FED pricing update : 105bps of cuts priced into 2024. SPX500 50dma around here 5335 area ahead of CPI this afternoon, estimate 2.9%, still 'deflating'..? Musk & Trump : ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview. Trump loosing it. Trump talked about ‘nuclear warming’ while Musk said the only reason to quit fossil fuels is that their supply is finite. Advertisers are abandoning X in spades, Trump media down fair bit too.. New swing states poll : (by Independent Center)   Wisconsin  Harris 49% Trump 42% Michigan  Harris 48% Trump 43% Pennsylvania  Harris 49% Trump 45% Fed Bostic speak:  Bostic said he’s looking for “a little more data” before supporting a reduction in interest rates , emphasizing he wants to be sure the US central bank will not have to change course once it begins cutting. “We want to be absolutely sure,” GS: Buybacks August to Sep buyback season is 2nd best of they year. Window for buybacks has now reopened with estimated $1.15 Trn worth of authorizations BOJ debated further rate hikes in July , prompting hawkish shift, so why is Japan’s BOJ risking to blow up the YEN carry trade and raising rates? >>> coz inflation has hit a 40 year high there as the currency has depreciated by 50% last few years.. Japanese consumers got crushed as they lose their buying power, chances are the crisis isn't over For the first time since Brexit, a UK government is explicitly saying that it would actively like to maintain alignment with new EU regulations #GBP UBS actively kicks out Swiss clients . UBS is massively increasing prices for those who no longer do business with the big bank China bond market bubble 30y yields.. #duration turning could turn other yields Goldman: US equity valuations have been and are still higher than the macro backdrop would normally suggest UK : real pay up, employment down, int rates generating some returns for savers, even global investors having a look at UK industries (GBP super low), and encouraging inflation data - not all that bad! Barron's: "#Buffett felt that the investment case for unloading the Apple stock was so compelling that he was willing to endure the tax consequences. Buffett essentially decided that he’d rather have cash equal to nearly 80% of the value of the Apple stake than the Apple stock." UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti said investors should heed last week’s global selloff as a sign of “fragility in the system” The Dow jumps 250 points as wholesale inflation cools ( qz.com ) Why Harris ranks better on the economy than Trump (and Biden) ( yahoo.com ) Russian region declares state of emergency as Ukraine’s offensive causes chaos – POLITICO Iran's president tells Starmer retaliation against Israel 'is a right' ( msn.com ) BOJ debated further rate hikes in July, prompting hawkish shift ( msn.com ) Rising Pay, Falling Rates — Good News for UK Consumers - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Very good piece by Robin Harding: "There is a bubble in the Chinese government bond market — or so, at least, the People’s Bank of China would fervently like to believe. A bubble would be a worrying risk to financial stability. The existence of..." https://t.co/yddvrQuz1n " / X and China Is in Denial About the War in Ukraine | Foreign Affairs ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview | Climate crisis | The Guardian ...yup... Donald Trump At Risk Of Losing Florida, Poll Suggests - Newsweek Trump Media stock hits new low after Donald Trump returns to X ( qz.com ) UAW Seizes on Donald Trump Praising Musk for Firing Workers - Bloomberg Product Safety and Metrology Bill a 'major post-Brexit moment' ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Steve Rosenberg on X: "There’s an Interesting opinion piece today in one of the (ultra) pro-Kremlin papers. It offers clues to how life inside Russia may change as a result of Ukraine’s Kursk offensive. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/uvdtO8ffqX " / X On-the-Record Press Gaggle by White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby | The White House Advertisers are abandoning X in spades ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Hardly surprising! UBS schmeisst Schweizer Kunden aktiv raus – Inside Paradeplatz US plots break-up of Google to address monopoly fears ( msn.com ) Swiss government explains recommended rejection of biodiversity initiative - SWI swissinfo.ch NZ police race to recover meth-laced sweets distributed by charity - BBC News !! Extreme heat warnings across southern Europe as August temperatures rise | The Independent Stay cool!