Markets : Musk tells Dan Ives (#TSLA 's biggest bull) to 'shut' up, Truly incredible: Markets now see a BASE CASE of an additional $10 TRILLION being added to US debt by 2028. This would put total US debt at $46 trillion, officially up +100% since 2020. Trump admitted yesterday of being played by Putin (some nasty reaction could now come, he started by saying more arms for UKR... his ego won't allow him to be played by Putin for long, starting with sanctions #PALL !?.. ) , EU ready to sign 'inferior framework deal with US (FT), talked about this one very recently (2july).. #COPPER UP in NYC terms and DOWN in LDN LME (ill thought strategy by Trump..), The US Dollar has rarely ever been this oversold >>> some $$$ upside reaction together with some risk-off in weeks ahead, as Trump goes nasty on tariffs and no more TACO (let alone bigger action vs Russia, with sanctions..), take a chill pill, markets valuations are rather well/fully priced, wait for better opportunities into Aug/September, the 'debasement trade' stalled/stopped since NFP... Trump: “Putin showers us with bullshit. It sounds nice but means nothing. I’m very seriously considering sanctions against Russia. I’m not happy with Putin—he’s killing a lot of soldiers, his own and theirs. We’ve given the Ukrainians the best weapons ever made.” USD share of global FX reserves (including gold) now <50% #TSLA Elon Musk tells Tesla bull Dan Ives to 'shut up' after analyst calls for company oversight of the CEO #XAGUSD Ed Steer: World's Bullion Banks Net Short 50% of Total Silver Open Interest The End of America’s Exorbitant Privilege Trump's top housing regulator calls on Congress to investigate Powell >> he is panicking as there is now nearly 10months supply of new single family homes for sale, similar to Feb 2008 Meta nabs Apple AI chief – a win for Zuckerberg or a sign of Apple’s weakness? Germany demands Apple & Google remove China’s DeepSeek AI from their app stores The US stock market has a market capitalization of $63.8T, which is more than the other markets listed below combined at $61.6T The #EUR is coming to : Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026 >>> EURO also made a new all-time-high in trade weighted terms yesterday With ICE now being the largest law enforcement entity in the US, its aggressive tactics in major American cities are only increasing. I look at the deployment of ICE against American citizens and how its turned our democracy into fascism Donald Trump says pharmaceutical tariffs could reach 200 per cent – The Irish Times Donald Trump deal to leave EU facing higher tariffs than UK, FT reports Trump threatens to escalate trade war amid confusion over new tariff rates | Trump tariffs | The Guardian Trump says he is not happy with Russia’s Putin, considering sanctions Trump: “Putin would’ve taken Ukraine in 3-4 days if not for Ukrainian bravery and U.S. weapons” During a press briefing, Donald Trump made a powerful statement about Ukraine's defense at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion:   “We gave them missiles — the latest and the best. This would’ve been a war lasting three, maybe four days. But they had the advantage of incredible equipment. And I’ll say this: Ukrainians — whether you think it was fair we gave them all that money or not — they were incredibly brave, because someone had to run those systems. A lot of people I know couldn’t have done it or had the courage to do so. They fought very bravely.” Ole S Hansen on X: "European opening comment on #copper: Copper futures traded in New York surged after Trump said he was focusing on a 50% tariff on imports, starting in early August, as opposed to the 25% expected by the market. The US imports more than 50% due to a lack of domestic production and" / X World's Bullion Banks Net Short 50% of Total Silver Open Interest | SilverSeek Considering the current state of affairs of the world as they stand today -- and the structural deficit in silver -- and now in platinum and palladium as well, the chance that these big bullion banks and commodity trading houses could get overrun at some point, is no longer zero -- and certainly within the realm of possibility if things go totally non-linear at some point. Gold, silver, platinum take a timeout after strong first half | Saxo Elon Musk tells Tesla bull Dan Ives to 'shut up' after analyst calls for company oversight of the CEO The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Truly incredible: Markets now see a BASE CASE of an additional $10 TRILLION being added to US debt by 2028. This would put total US debt at $46 trillion, officially up +100% since 2020. On our current fiscal path, US bankruptcy is simply a matter of time. Something must" / X Trump's top housing regulator calls on Congress to investigate Powell The End of America’s Exorbitant Privilege by Desmond Lachman - Project Syndicate Meta nabs Apple AI chief - a win for Zuckerberg or a sign of Apple's weakness? Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026 Luke Gromen on X: "USD share of global FX reserves (including gold) now <50%. Gold now 2nd biggest FX reserve asset behind USD. USD + EUR share of global FX reserves was 78% in 2007; today, that is 62%. Gold now 2nd + “Other currencies” share of FX reserves was 22% in 2007; today, that is 38%. https://t.co/AYNBBhxfU7 " / X You bet ! M&S chair: UK needs to muscle up to tackle cyber threats Steve Schmidt on X: "With ICE now being the largest law enforcement entity in the US, its aggressive tactics in major American cities are only increasing. I look at the deployment of ICE against American citizens and how its turned our democracy into fascism. Watch here: https://t.co/cwnjpMtOHT https://t.co/dP4wRGfJrA " / X Rachel Reeves to face fresh blow with sluggish growth data The top five UK small caps we're watching this summer – The Armchair Trader

Trump announces steep tariffs on 14 countries starting Aug. 1 >>>> Trump's letters to Japan and South Korea demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of trade. Tariffs have nothing to do with America's trade deficits with either nation. Japan's tariffs on U.S. goods average less than 2%, and Korea's average less than 1%.. Markets : RBA surprised, and didn't cut (light AUD rally overnight), U.S eq markets slightly softer, though DAX +24K, if Trump gets serious about tariffs (as beautiful bill is now done he can take more actions he loves tariffs..) and too few deals are done, risk is this final deadline is not extended anymore , everyone has a view on outcome, Trump & Bessent keep pumping liquidities in system, so for now markets happy.. The EU said it's closing in on ''a framework trade agreement'' with the U.S Fed independence is already dead: Trump will get his monetary bailout. The US president is right. Central bankers have been calling the shots for too long/Telegraph The UK has risen up the ranks to become the joint top location for investment among CFOs around the world, a new survey has suggested, with financial officers open to taking on greater risks BM Talks: Alex Patelis speaks / Podcast below - well worth a listen Macron's UK state visit underlines effort to move on from Brexit nightmare Swiss shoe maker On employs one robot instead of 300 workers Is China dodging US tariffs? China's exports to the US fell -43% YoY in May, representing a $15 billion decline in trade value. However, the country’s total exports jumped +4.8% during the same period, per official Chinese data Trump: Tariffs on Japan, Korea, 12 more starting Aug. 1 Japan will continue trade talks with US for mutually beneficial deal, Ishiba says | Reuters EU prepares to stockpile critical minerals in case of war: FT - MINING.COM Analysis: A US-EU trade deal looks unlikely. What does that mean for the UK? German politicians demand ice cream price cap – media — RT World News Great use of tax payers money, pilitician's focus in the wrong place, quel joke, is this why they get voted in ? Fed independence is already dead: Trump will get his monetary bailout RBA holds rates unexpectedly as it waits for more inflation data Trump's Middle East envoy to join Gaza ceasefire talks Trump says US will send more weapons to Ukraine | Reuters Steve Rosenberg on X: "In today’s Russian papers: more Russians trying to do their own dental fillings with DIY kits “due to rising cost of dental treatment.” Sanctions causing "chronic illness" for Russia's economy. Plus, the rehabilitation of Stalin continues. #ReadingRussia https://t.co/ASI0uheFpS " / X Macron’s UK state visit underlines effort to move on from Brexit nightmare | Emmanuel Macron | The Guardian Starmer and Macron hit migration headwinds - Euractiv BM Talks: Alex Patelis speaks We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Alex Patelis , who served as Chief Economic Adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis between 2019-2024. Alex also worked in investment banks including as Managing Director of Global Research at Merrill Lynch and studied under Ben Bernanke for his PhD from Princeton.  We asked: Ten years ago, Greece voted No in a referendum to a bailout, only for the new Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to perform the exact opposite three weeks later. What happened? Greece is now running a primary budget surplus with investment grade debt. How was this achieved?  What lessons can the rest of the world take from this? What does the German "Zeitenwende" mean for the EU? Is this the end for the dominance of the US Dollar? What advice do you have for Scott Bessent, who also moved from the world of finance into politics? What do you think of populism?  UK now ‘most attractive country’ for investment App for Swiss Abroad: Stay Updated Today - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss shoe maker On employs one robot instead of 300 workers - SWI swissinfo.ch The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Is China dodging US tariffs? China's exports to the US fell -43% YoY in May, representing a $15 billion decline in trade value. However, the country’s total exports jumped +4.8% during the same period, per official Chinese data. This comes as shipments to the Association of https://t.co/qtWdnQAZNS " / X Elon Musk loses $15 billion in net worth after Tesla stock sinks Jeffrey Epstein Did Not Maintain "Client List", Says US Justice Department

BRICS leaders meet amid Trump's tariff threats Markets : bill passed, fiscal, trade, immigration and regulation uncertainty partly 'resolved' within those policy factors, what remains is U.S trade policy now, trade 'deals', and more TACO action as we heard over the weekend to 1st Aug and the threats started again ahead of the deadline now (could very well be THE deadline since the BBBill is passed now he can get angry again... >>> ...just as everyone thinks that there are effectively no deadlines.., beware, equity markets pretty calm near highs/FOMO like price action, USD stable near highs (positioning is short USD's), #TSLA and Musk in the headlines again Bessent: Tariffs will ‘boomerang’ back to April levels by Aug. 1 for countries without deals , Trump threatens extra 10% tariff on nations that side with Brics White House insider says “it’s all fake” regarding Trump’s trade deadlines  (“there’s no deadline. It’s a self-imposed landmark in this theatrical show”) Elon Musk says he has formed a new U.S. political party, the ‘America Party’ There is going to be real pain’ from AI: OpenAI’s Sam Altman warns ‘There will be whole categories of jobs that go away’ Europe  is hoping for a preliminary trade framework agreement  that leaves the 10% baseline tariff in place  while negotiations continue (this is the best-case scenario – it’s possible the White House decides to impose higher tariff rates while additional talks take place) OPEC+ pushed through  an even larger production hike than anticipated , taking output up by 548K BPD  (instead of the 411K pace of the last few months) as the cartel looks to recapture market share GPIF logs $61 billion loss as weak dollar hits overseas assets China retaliates to EU ban with import restrictions on medical devices Bessent: Tariffs will revert to April levels in August without deals Bessent on Yale Budget Lab saying richest Americans will see their income rise by nearly 2% while lowest earning Americans will actually see incomes drop as a result of Trump's bill: "I actually went on their website. They're all ex-Biden officials, so I think we can discount everything they say." Trump: What people don’t understand is.. the country eats the tariff, the company eats the tariff and it’s not passed along at all… China is eating the tariffs >>>Fact-check: False. Costs associated with tariffs are almost universally passed to consumers Hassett who is Trumps Senior Advisor says the best way for people to get insurance is to get a job. Completely admitting 11 million citizens will lose coverage. Hassett neglects that half US companies don't offer health insurance Trump threatens extra 10% tariff on nations that side with Brics BRICS leaders meet amid Trump's tariff threats – DW – 07/07/2025 ‘He likes the game too much’: Why Trump isn’t sweating his lack of trade deals - POLITICO EU weighs skeleton US trade deal with 10 percent tariff – POLITICO Elon Musk says he's created new political party Sky News on X: "Jeremy Corbyn's new party should be called the 'Farage Assistance Group', former labour leader Lord Kinnock says. 'The splintering offered by a new party of the left...can only be of assistance to the enemies of Labour and the working-class', he adds. 📺 Sky 501 https://t.co/JgerADcyyO " / X GPIF logs $61 billion loss as weak dollar hits overseas assets - The Japan Times China retaliates to EU ban with import restrictions on medical devices | Reuters Meanwhile... China snaps up mines around the world in rush to secure resources Gundlach on Treasuries, Gold, Fed, AI, Private Credit, Trump Gundlach on Bloomberg: - Private Debt (and private equity) could be the next big bubble to burst. - US debt and interest expenses are unsustainable. - Gold is a real asset class. - We need to restructure institutions, political parties, and finances. Ole S Hansen on X: "#Crudeoil trades softer after a group of eight OPEC+ members announced a bigger-than-expected production increase from next month. The 548k b/d increase has accelerated the group's planned rollback of a 2.2m b/d cuts made in 2023, with a similar increase for September completing https://t.co/9yh5Rta5Qx " / X Eric Daugherty on X: "🚨 BREAKING: Treasury Secretary SCOTT BESSENT just summed up the migration crisis for America perfectly. "The big LIE was that this kind of immigration didn't hurt working people. Now economists have come out and said, oh what a surprise, even the laws of supply and demand work https://t.co/3fPttkBt9I " / X ‘There Is Going To Be Real Pain’ From AI: OpenAI’s Sam Altman Warns ‘There Will Be Whole Categories Of Jobs That Go Away’ If he says it...

Happy 249th Independence Day Republican Senator Rand Paul: “This will be the largest increase in our debt ceiling in our history…once conservative Republicans vote for this, there is no conservative opposition. They will own it. The debt will be owned by the Republicans." Markets : SPX500 on highs by the close yesterday on the Beautiful Bill passing..., watch UST yields long-end now for signs if/when bond markets starts to be worried again.. . Witkoff is off to Middle East next week, Iran meeting, signs of 'regional peace deal' possible still, Trump floated a China trip this year, no progress made in UKR-RU ( Trump ‘disappointed’ with Putin after phone call) , Trump's trade war continues vs EU, China etc, he wants ''the world to squeeze out China''... (China has most of the cards though..) and yes the BBBill has passed (218 vs 214), fiscal deficits as far as her eye can see ! and ...a defense spending down to 2.7% over next 10'years, which is...well below NATO target.. “We have far more than 170 countries and how many deals can you make? I’d rather send out a letter saying this what you’re going to pay.” , Trump says countries to start paying tariffs on Aug 1, floats range of 10% to 70% EU-US trade talks : 'impossible' before 9th July deadline, says VdL Total US debt is now expected to hit $40 TRILLION THIS YEAR/thread NFP June report, +147K vs +106 expected, no chance of FED moving this month, in the balance for Sep now.. However, Rolling 6months sum of ⁦ job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions US Dollar vs. Latin American Equities/Thread/chart China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine. Wang Yi speaks of concern that US could shift whole focus in China’s direction in talks with top EU diplomat Beijing Nailed it ! (1) The White House on X: "🇺🇸 LFG – The Golden Age is about to be LIT! 🇺🇸 The ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL has PASSED — and it’s en route to President Trump’s desk! https://t.co/HKocu3AAaE " / X This is the official message form the WH Tax changes under Trump’s 'big beautiful' bill in one chart Trump eyes simple tariff rates over complex talks, says letters going out Friday | Reuters Trump says he is willing to let migrant laborers stay on US farms | Reuters Trump says countries to start paying tariffs on Aug 1, floats range of 10% to 70% | The Straits Times Japan invokes national interest amid struggling tariff talks with US | The Straits Times Ukraine-Russia war live: Trump ‘disappointed’ with Putin after phone call Exclusive | China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine: sources | South China Morning Post Trump wants the world to squeeze out China. He's starting with Vietnam (1) Ray Dalio on X: "Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt," / X Simply put together by Ray Dalio...fiscal dominance + incoming monetisation (1) Steve Rosenberg on X: "One Russian paper on tensions with Azerbaijan: “Although Azerbaijan’s leaders are not openly criticising Putin, this is a direct challenge to Putin & Russia's leadership.” Plus, Russian schools to “put more emphasis on moral, spiritual & patriotic component.” #ReadingRussia https://t.co/7gERUQADcK " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is absolutely insane: Total US debt is now expected to hit $40 TRILLION THIS YEAR, per Kalshi. To put this into perspective, at the start of 2020, total US debt stood at $23.2 trillion. This would mark a near $17 TRILLION increase in 6 years. Never in history has the US" / X Nick Timiraos on X: "The June jobs report does little to reconcile a hazy outlook for Fed cuts besides very likely torpedoing whatever chance there was of a July cut, particularly if stocks continue to push to new highs. https://t.co/t9QpCrtg0M If you thought the labor market was gently cooling and" / X Liz Ann Sonders on X: "Rolling 6m sum of ⁦@ChallengerGray⁩ job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions https://t.co/OmzUlMFPM9 " / X Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "US Dollar vs. Latin American Equities:   A classic macro alligator mouth that, in my view, is likely to close as global investors begin rotating out of US dollar-based assets.   Emerging market equities remain one of the most fundamentally undervalued areas of the market and have https://t.co/ilLs71NH6z " / X love that chart China finds $200 billion and 470,000 tons under this mine ― It's the end of rare earths in America Home Office unaware if foreign workers leave UK after visas end, MPs say Hong Kong investors triple gold holdings in rush to haven asset: HSBC survey | South China Morning Post (1) Aaron Rupar on X: "Trump: "I just signed an executive order to raise entrance fees while keeping fees for Americans. The National Parks will be about America first." https://t.co/JxKmXVRbUS " / X

Markets : UK markets got hit on possible departure of Rachel Reeves (gilts, GBP softer on risk of higher debt-spending). After the much weaker ADP, NFP next up today (likely to be softer, maybe much softer), the BBBill is going to struggle through, its a pretty tight affair to be fair ! should have a result today, good timing for some 4th July celebration. Equity markets on highs, slightly higher highs/overbought and USD quiet/stead/oversold in short-term but so far no reaction/short-covering rally, beware of possible wild price action today on an 'outside' NFP number ahead of a long weekend... July FED could be in play on a much weaker one only, otherwise market has already its 3x FED cuts priced in for later on in the year, starting with a Sep FED cut Jerome Powell silence on his future complicates Trump Fed Chair search, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac boss urges Congress probe Fed’s Jerome Powell over ‘deceptive’ testimony on ‘Palace of Versailles’ $2.5B HQ >>> pressure is on Amazon deploys its 1 millionth robot in a sign of more job automation, great ? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent GOES OFF on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the board, says they have "Tariff Derangement Syndrome" who refuse to cut interest rates #GOLD ''own it''.. still... US Banks can now classify physical gold as a Tier 1 asset as Basel III just went into effect today U.S Mortgage delinquency rates unexpectedly rise in May UK Gilt yields spiked shortly after Keir Starmer refused to confirm whether Rachel Reeves would remain as Chancellor in an eventful PMQs during which she appeared visibly upset #GBP >>>> the only way you stop governments running bad policies / deficits, is for the Central Bank to let bond yields go UP, eventually it is a good thing, higher yields will for the UK to get its fiscal house in oda ! before anyone else >>> Abolish ‘triple lock’ on UK pensions to prevent financial cliff-edge, says IFS The U.S has no realistic way to meet the huge surge in demand from AI/Video House taking key vote on Trump budget bill amid pressure from GOP holdouts US Senate strikes AI regulation ban from Trump megabill | Reuters U.S. lifts chip software curbs on China amid trade truce Eric Daugherty on X: "🚨 BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent GOES OFF on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the board, says they have "Tariff Derangement Syndrome" who refuse to cut interest rates "We got a 50 basis point cut last September [2024], and inflation was HIGHER! [...] I guess this tariff https://t.co/jfcuKCTUzv " / X Jerome Powell silence on his future complicates Trump Fed Chair search Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac boss urges Congress probe Fed’s Jerome Powell over ‘deceptive’ testimony on ‘Palace of Versailles’ $2.5B HQ UK bonds suffer biggest selloff since October 2022 as worries build over finance minister The fate of France's prime minister is in the far right's hands – again Mortgage refinance demand surges, as interest rates drop further Mortgage delinquency rates unexpectedly rise in May | Mortgage Professional ADP private sector jobs report shows surprise decline in June Full Interview with John Ketchum | POLITICO Energy Summit China's EUV breakthrough: Huawei, SMIC reportedly advancing LDP lithography, eye 3Q25 trial, 2026 rollout - Global SMT & Packaging Asia City A.M. on X: "Gilt yields spiked shortly after Keir Starmer refused to confirm whether Rachel Reeves would remain as Chancellor in an eventful PMQs during which she appeared visibly upset. The prime minister defended the government’s U-turn on the welfare bill, which could now prevent Labour https://t.co/HGaORTYPCE " / X Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again - USFunds Amazon deploys its 1 millionth robot in a sign of more job automation Not good for jobs clearly! Microsoft laying off about 9,000 employees in latest round of cuts Centene plunges after pulling forecast on revenue pressure from Obamacare plans Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️The US stock market breadth has almost NEVER been this weak: The S&P 500 breadth has dropped to the second-lowest level in at least 20 YEARS. This means the recent S&P 500 rally has been driven by just a handful of stocks, and not many names have hit their 52-week high. https://t.co/xAUJFSVBTR " / X

Markets : equity no lower but didn't rally on the 'BBBill' announcement, oversold USD (doesn't mean it has to rally a lot, we could simply trade rangy for a while), Copper looks set to break up, buy a decent dip in metals still, while #GDX #SIL should continue to show signs of catching up with spot gold and silver, XPT etc. SPX, time for a hedging trade, #VIX 3mos calls etc... Trump’s megabill squeaks through Senate, but House can still reject changes >>> In the previous 24 hours, Trump’s threatened Elon Musk, Thomas Massie, Japan, a judge in Israel, the CEO of AT&T, Jerome Powell, Canada, Thom Tillis, a Forbes reporter, Harvard, & migrants with being eaten by Burmese pythons in the Everglades, while releasing a new line of colognes, what a time to be alive :-), and Trump threatened to arrest NYC Mayoral Candidate Mamdani, calls him a communist and says that he may be in this country illegally USD : a lot of this around now... The decline in the US Dollar is historic... Mr Market is very short USdollar by now, see Saxo's Ole report below ''' The dollar short hit a four-year high''' JPM's quarterly spread : SepQ 4955 / 5870 Put Spread vs 6505 Call Rotation keep the bull market alive, Small caps up while the rest cools off $IWM The Warren buffet indicator is now the most overvalued in history at 205.69%, probably nothing to worry about... Trump hints at legal action — and possible deportation — against Elon Musk, all fun and games then.. Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs. Powell: Not going to rule in or rule out any particular meeting. Officials will “be monitoring, particularly, what does show up in terms of inflation or what does not show up." On the labor market: “We watch very carefully for signs of unexpected weakness.” Starmer wins vote on UK welfare reform but is damaged by big rebellion US Banks can not classify physical gold as a Tier 1 asset as Basel III just went into effect today COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-Year high, Crude slump rattles speculators | Saxo COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-Year high, Crude slump rattles speculators   Key points: Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 24 June 2025 The dollar short hit a four-year high amid ongoing demand for EUR and JPY, as well as short covering activity in CAD. Commodity swings, especially across the energy sector, give managed money accounts a rough ride. Price weakness drives modest reductions in gold and silver longs, with buy-the-dip still a preferred strategy. Lukewarm response to surging platinum. Coffee long slumps to a two-year low, sugar short hits a five-year high, while demand for hogs drives net long to a record Copper price surge signals strain, but no acute shortage yet Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs Trump’s megabill clears Senate, sending it back to House Senate Republican tax bill passes 'SALT' deduction cap of $40,000 Trump 'big beautiful' bill axes $7,500 EV tax credit after September Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again - USFunds Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "The facts and data are on our side. President Trump’s historic 2017 tax cuts drove a major economic boost that benefited all Americans in his first term. The One, Big, Beautiful Bill doubles down on that trajectory with no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, 100% expensing, https://t.co/ZnHUk1Q8EU " / X Nick Timiraos on X: "Goldman says it now expects a better than even chance the Fed's first rate cut is in September (previously, December), followed by cuts at the last two meetings of the year (for a total of -75 bps this year). "The very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit https://t.co/jEmFdKVuLK " / X VolSignals on X: "HERE'S YOUR NEW QUARTERLY COLLAR SPXW Sep Quarterly (9/30/25) 4940 - 5850 / 6480 Put Spread Collar with 6/30 5905 Call the fund buys put spread in the collar 37,800x times, buys 0DTE call 17,800x times pays ~$497.375m check back at the close for details on the re-strike https://t.co/l4i85oJ5pp " / X JohannesBorgen on X: "Why is Deutsche stock hammered today? An old theme is coming back to haunt them: Basel 4! Quick thread. https://t.co/vuSjL6BCxA " / X NEXTA on X: "👀 Trump Hints at Legal Action — and Possible Deportation — Against Elon Musk Asked about the possibility of deporting Elon Musk, President Trump didn’t rule it out: 🗣️ “I don’t know. We’ll have to take a look. We may have to launch a criminal case against Elon. You know what https://t.co/02RFzay5G0 " / X Astonishing deal.. Cristiano Ronaldo’s £492m Saudi deal: two cynical regimes form a strategic alliance | Cristiano Ronaldo | The Guardian Starmer wins vote on UK welfare reform but is damaged by big rebellion

Markets : shortened U.S week with 4th July celebration, markets all on highs with -3- FED cuts priced in for 2025 already (AND 2 more in 2026) and core U.S inflation still 2.7%, more TACO action likely on trade talks, although Canada playing hard ball with U.S techs, which will be the key for EU too...The USDollar had its worst 1st half of the year since....1973, as foreign investors dumped UST's the most in years , no wonder precious metals are doing super well ! Small Cap Stocks are now underperforming Mega Cap Tech Stocks by the largest margin in history (MAG7, AI etc etc) >> all about the BBBill now and 9th July deadline on trade (more TACo action most likely but beware is some countries follow Canada's stance), note that Sen. Rand Paul still refuses to back budget bill due to added deb >>> implied VOLS on LOWS, now IS the time to purchase a few 'hedging trade', VIX calls, SPX put spreads, USD slightly oversold, beware short-term snap back too possibly, CHF looks overdone but hey.. USDCHF snap back a play for Q3?.. buy few usdcalls 3mos 25delta, just a trade idea #USDCHF As the FT says /confirms Trump's fiscal policy (run it hot!) and attacks on the FED has put the safe haven of the U.S at risk >>> (USD on lows, as foreigners sell UST's, in a world of increasing debt issuance...) BofA: The dollar could be at the start of a bear market as emerging markets benefit from a commodity bull market driven by infrastructure spending Deadline cancelled? France calls for extension of EU-US trade talks beyond July 9 30 June 2025 EU 401k stale ! : There is an urgent need to channel retail savings into capital markets to develop those markets and finance EU priorities. An EU savings standard could increase retail participation, benefiting savers, boosting investment and supporting strategic priorities Senators to begin morning vote on Trump's major tax, Medicaid, border bill, Trump pollster warns Senate GOP against deeper Medicaid cuts Charlie Munger: “The secret to life is easy because it's so simple: You don’t have a lot of envy or resentment. You don’t overspend your income. You stay cheerful in spite of your troubles. You deal with reliable people and you do what you’re supposed to do.” Banks - Fed Stress Test Follow-Up: All 22 banks tested remained above their minimum CET1 capital requirements, ‘Kill shot’: GOP megabill targets solar, wind projects with new tax Trump envisions China trip with dozens of CEOs. US switches from policy of escalation to a managed de-risking over time >>> M;Iddle East style visit Iran could be capable of uranium enrichment in a 'matter of months', UN nuclear watchdog says For the first time in history, 4 major central banks are reducing their balance sheets: The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England are all simultaneously lowering their asset holdings. Currently by ~$120 billion a month Sen. Rand Paul refuses to back budget bill due to added debt | Watch Senators to begin morning vote on Trump's major tax, Medicaid, border bill Trump pollster warns Senate GOP against deeper Medicaid cuts - Live Updates - POLITICO ‘Kill shot’: GOP megabill targets solar, wind projects with new tax - Live Updates - POLITICO Canada rescinds Digital Services Tax after Trump cuts off U.S. trade talks Is the stock market closed on July 4th? What to watch this week Deadline cancelled? France calls for extension of EU-US trade talks beyond July 9 30 June 2025 | УНН China's manufacturing activity contracts for a third month amid deflation woes PCE inflation report May 2025: Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Board's annual bank stress test showed that large banks are well positioned to weather a severe recession, while staying above minimum capital requirements and continuing to lend to households and businesses How a time bomb in Trump's signature tax law fueled mass tech layoffs Iran could be capable of uranium enrichment in a 'matter of months', UN nuclear watchdog says NVIDIA CEO's Plan To Sell More Than $800 Million Of Stock Is Well Timed As Shares Cross All-Time High Switzerland is emerging as Europe's Deep Tech powerhouse – The Armchair Trader Platinum price surges to 11-year high on supply concerns - MINING.COM (1) European Central Bank on X: "There is an urgent need to channel retail savings into capital markets to develop those markets and finance EU priorities. An EU savings standard could increase retail participation, benefiting savers, boosting investment and supporting strategic priorities." / X (1) Investment Wisdom on X: "Charlie Munger: “The secret to life is easy because it's so simple: You don’t have a lot of envy or resentment. You don’t overspend your income. You stay cheerful in spite of your troubles. You deal with reliable people and you do what you’re supposed to do.” https://t.co/meXlxZro0R " / X Human remains found in buried Swiss village - SWI swissinfo.ch

Markets : shadow FED, more TACO's, trade truce/powerful understanding with China (no deal yet..but China confirmed 'framework' agreed), Bessent on BBB and quarter-end flows pushing markets to new highs pretty easily. USD remain soft (down 10% YTD..), metals had a great push (PLAT...30+pct in June alone...super nice, NOW watch OUT as margin requirement increased dramatically into quarter-end!!) do watch out for risk of a correction in a few things in early July, ahead of the BBBill >>> markets are saying : no risk of recession, no worries with tariffs, peace in ME, the BBBill will be great, FED is going to cut 75 to 125bps by end of 2026 anyway, equities are TINA...it is what's going on, but it doesn't really feel ''right'', or does it ? valuations are too high, they can remain high for a while, let's see after quarter-end flows Around 86% of CFOs believe the bill will be reworked in Congress but it will eventually reach Trump's desk Leaders have concluded their summit. POLITICO revealed EU received latest U.S. counterproposal in Trump trade negotiation Trump trade deadlines in July ‘not critical’: White House, more TACO's, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Congress to dump Trump’s retaliatory tax in BBB Kashkari said recent U.S. inflation data has been encouraging but warned that the full inflationary impact of tariffs might still be ahead China, U.S. agree on implementing Geneva consensus, building on London framework, Beijing says What’s driving Wall Street stablecoin interest? Trillions up for grabs in the future and banks getting ready for it...and demand for UST's.. This is one of the best setups for emerging markets I can think of. And a decade of underperformance means almost everyone is underallocated to EM Warren Buffett indicator has rarely been higher: The US stock market capitalization to US GDP ratio hit 203% the second-largest reading EVER SoftBank CEO says he’s ‘all in’ on OpenAI Who is affected by new US visa rule that demands all social media accounts be made public? EU leaders thrash out Trump trade strategy — as it happened – POLITICO Most CFOs expect Trump tax bill to become law despite GOP turmoil: survey Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urges Congress to dump Trump’s retaliatory tax in BBB Fed's Kashkari Cautions on Delayed Tariff Impact Despite Positive Inflation Data - EconoTimes What's driving Wall Street's stablecoin interest? Trillions U.S. dollar hits 3-year low as Trump eyes early Fed chair announcement Ukraine-Russia war latest: New prisoner swap agreed in Istanbul includes return of ‘heroes of Mariupol’ Trump-Iran latest: Experts are still assessing nuclear site damage after Ayatollah threatens further attacks on US | The Independent China's industrial profits slip back into sharp decline in May - CNA China, U.S. agree on implementing Geneva consensus, building on London framework, Beijing says China's Xiaomi sees shares soar to record highs SoftBank CEO says he wanted to be OpenAI early investor Brian Allen on X: "🚨 WOW. this whole press conference is nothing but a smoke bomb. A staged circus to spin the botched Iran strike into some glorious W. But the cracks are showing. The second a reporter asked a real question; not a spoon-fed softball, Chairman Caine froze. Stumbled. Squirmed. https://t.co/KsZan6QXxw " / X Who is affected by new US visa rule that demands all social media accounts be made public?

T rump considers 'three or four' successors to 'stupid' Powell >> ''shawdow FED'' + capital requirements easing >>> markets loving this set-up together with softer usd, yields and oil... >>> BUT, markets have now about 63bps of cuts priced in for 2025 already! NATO united, 5% target, Article 5 etc >>> the U.S will stick to it all, till europe has spent enough to manage the situation in Europe.. as discussed while back... Trump has managed to get Europe to spedn and he has manage to unite Europe, something no-one has managed in 30+ years... Markets : NVDA, QQQ all time highs, ''what else'', Shell denies BP interest, USD breaking down (EURUSD 1.1600-50+ is a big medium term statement..pick your currency to buy vs USD..), Growth sectors are outperforming in the US, while Value sectors are leading the rest of the world (chart available), crypto asset for home loan could very well be accepted shortly Lutnick: “Just cut our interest rates, our deficit will naturally shrink and our economy will soar.”...okay then..sounds pretty easy! GOLD holding up well, SILVER has $40 in sight for summer, as expected...HUGE break up in PLAT, PALL also in the frame... European stocks fell (slightly) on Thursday after Trump warned that Spain could face tariffs twice as high from the US if it doesn’t increase its defense spending Debt-to-GDP is above 100% in 6 of 7 G7 nations, and is rising/THREAD China urges Beijing-backed development bank to focus more on Belt and Road Initiative Japan ’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said the country can’t accept the US’s 25 per cent tariffs on cars, adding that the Asian nation’s automakers produce far more cars in the US than they export to America >>> accept higher JPY then, to make a deal... Crypto Enters the Mortgage Mainstream: FHFA Signals Institutional Integration, Mortgage giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac directed to consider crypto as valid assets for home loan eligibility Peter Thiel on why 70% of Millennials say they are pro-socialist: “When one has too much student debt or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time… and if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it.” Divided Fed proposes rule to ease capital requirements for big Wall Street banks More liquidities.. Exclusive | Trump Accelerates His Fed Chair Search, Looking for a Loyalist to Succeed Powell - WSJ ''SHADOW FED'' Trump considers 'three or four' successors to 'stupid' Powell There were toe-curling displays of affection towards 'Daddy' Trump at the NATO summit - but like it or not, it worked Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump admits Putin could invade more of Europe after meeting Zelensky at Nato summit Trump wants more drones and missiles, fewer F-35s in $893 billion budget request | Reuters Mortgage giants Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac directed to consider crypto as valid assets for home loan eligibility A battered Iran faces an uncertain future after its grinding war with Israel China urges Beijing-backed development bank to focus more on Belt and Road Initiative China to Block Its Rare-Earth Experts From Spilling Their Secrets Japan can't accept US' 25% car tariffs, says trade negotiator Akazawa | World News - Business Standard Number 10 set to offer concessions to welfare rebels | Welfare | The Guardian USD down Nick Timiraos on X: "President Trump’s exasperation over the Federal Reserve’s take-it-slow approach to cutting interest rates is prompting him to consider accelerating when he will announce his pick to succeed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term runs for another 11 months" / X Global Markets Investor on X: "🚨 Global debt is gigantic: Debt-to-GDP is above 100% in 6 of 7 G7 nations, and is rising. 🇯🇵 Japan: ~250% 🇮🇹 Italy, 🇺🇸 US, 🇫🇷 France, 🇬🇧 UK 🇨🇦 Canada: all near or above 100% For 5 of 7 G7 economies, debt is set to surge further by 2030.👇 https://t.co/wdsiyABO4n " / X Tesla's European car sales fall as customers switch to Chinese EVs BYD cuts EV production in China - electrive.com Shell confirms it has ‘no intention’ of making an offer for BP

NATO leaders set to back Trump defence spending goal at Hague summit, Trump committed to defending Nato allies, insists Rutte, Donald Trump is “totally committed” to Nato’s Article 5 clause, the military alliance’s secretary general has insisted, despite the US president saying the mutual defence pact was open to interpretation Markets : Oil prices back down to lows, quicker than they went up initially ! USD 'struggling', equities loving low VIX and plenty of liquidities, bond bid going into quarte-end likely >>> and fair few pretty conflicting assessment on the Israel/Iran war, Israel talking years, Trump days >>> tariffs, Iran nukes, UKR-RU war, Big Beautiful Bill, property markets problems (US), none of it is resolved, and yet markets act as it's all clear, QQQ ATH's and the rest of them indices pretty close to their highs again too US sees Limited damage to Iran atomic sites as UN Watchdog urges inspections Powell: If not for the expectations of higher inflation this year from tariffs, "we would have continued cutting." French government to face no-confidence vote after pension talks collapse Big U.S banks, worried about being Trump's next target, race to appease Republicans China on Cusp of Seeing Over 100 DeepSeeks, Ex-Top Official Says USD : This is not de-dollarization through headline declarations or sanctions retaliation, it’s the slow reconfiguration of trust / THREAD Tariffs are inflationary for the US, but deflationary for everyone else / THREAD Mexico will not approve new mining concessions, Sheinbaum says Nato summit latest: Trump is committed to defending allies, insists Rutte Powell says Fed can wait to reduce interest rates as Trump demands cuts Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell is asked whether he wants to co-sign on to Chris Waller's dovish inflation outlook. He stays neutral: "I think many paths are possible here. And certainly the one you mentioned is a possible one. We could see inflation come in not as strong as we expect. If that were the" / X Mike Johnson urges Republicans to stay in town for megabill vote - Live Updates - POLITICO EndGame Macro on X: "What we’re likely witnessing here is the quiet construction of a parallel settlement infrastructure, one that leverages gold as a neutral reserve asset to facilitate bilateral trade outside the U.S. dominated financial system. The steady rise in Chinese exports to Saudi Arabia, https://t.co/4tU5O07g6P " / X Oil prices rise despite fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel US strikes failed to destroy Iran's nuclear sites, intelligence report says | Reuters US Sees Limited Damage to Iran Atomic Sites as UN Watchdog Urges Inspections Trump says China can buy Iranian oil, urges it to also buy US crude | The Straits Times NATO leaders set to back Trump defence spending goal at Hague summit UK to expand nuclear deterrent with jets carrying tactical weapons Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez rejects NATO's 5% of GDP spending plan as 'unreasonable' China on Cusp of Seeing Over 100 DeepSeeks, Ex-Top Official Says Chinese Firms Boost Exports to UK as Trump Tariffs Shift Trade - Bloomberg China on Cusp of Seeing Over 100 DeepSeeks, Ex-Top Official Says Dow Jones Top Company Headlines at 7 AM ET: Big Banks, Worried About Being Trump's Next Target, Race to Appease Republicans | Abridge, ... | Morningstar French government to face no-confidence vote after pension talks collapse – POLITICO David Albright on X: "We saw the reports on the leaked DIA report, and have a few comments.  The aspects raised are addressing a narrow question, albeit an important one, namely how quickly could Iran make a nuclear weapon in a worst case assessment post-attack.  With residual stocks of 60 percent and" / X Google could face changes to search in the UK amid CMA crackdown Mexico will not approve new mining concessions, Sheinbaum says | S&P Global Bill Gross on X: "Long-term research indicates US 10 year has traded at CPI plus 175. With inflation at 2.5% that puts a 10 year at 4.25% or so. That was history — but deficits/ensuing supply of bonds/and a weak dollar should keep CPI from falling below 2.5% and the 10 year from falling below" / X Robin Brooks on X: "Tariffs are inflationary for the US, but deflationary for everyone else. You can see this in yesterday's flash PMIs for June. Output prices (blue) are up sharply for the US (top left), but doing nothing in the Euro zone (top right), UK (bottom left) and Japan (bottom right)... https://t.co/0KmD1KneSq " / X

NATO summit, without Japan and South Korea, Trump of course will be there Big banks are close to getting one of biggest regulatory rollbacks since 2008 >> one of the main reason equity markets been holding up well and now ripping! bullish bonds, risk, bearish usd (Fed's Waller and Bowmann...) Markets : The odds of an interest rate cut by the September FOMC have soared to 80%, ceasefire announced, all this loooked a little 'staged' as discussed yesterday, big show of military might from the U.S, when Iran facilities had been cleared, same for the Qatar air base (it had been cleared few days ago..)...sending few missiles and no casulaties.. is just kind of face-saving..(can forget about Hormuz closing now ..) >>> crude right back down (JPY right back), risk-on, USD softer overall, close to breaking support levels again.. . equity markets at or nerar all-time-highs, valuations rather rich, a little too euphoriac, CHF looks a little 'misplaced', too high relative to few many things across global markets After Waller, Fed's Bowman open to cutting rates at July policy meeting >>> Powell will be grilled on this now, as he will testify before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee this week A historic #copper  squeeze on the LME continues, with spot copper trading at a USD 379-a-tonne premium to the three-month futures, the highest level since 2021 UK Vows to spend 5% of GDP on security by 2035 to hit NATO goal   China's auto industry has inflated car sales for years through a government-backed grey market that registers new cars right off the assembly line and then ships them overseas as "used" vehicles Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Now Pays 5% of All U.S. Corporate Income Tax. A 'record-shattering' $26.8 Billio China, which in March slipped to become the third-largest foreign holder, behind the UK, had $757 billion of US Treasury securities in April, down $8.2 billion from March Brexit the 'stupidest thing any country has ever done' - Michael Bloomberg Europe tiptoes through NATO summit as Trump lands and Iran looms – POLITICO Arnaud Bertrand on X: "There's no overstating how extraordinary this is. The West has now lost political support from the whole of Asia, even Japan and South Korea. https://t.co/0CDwOMwGeh " / X Truth Details | Truth Social CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE... Big banks are close to getting one of biggest regulatory rollbacks since 2008 [Video] Fed's Bowman open to cutting rates at July policy meeting China's holdings of US Treasury bonds fall to $757 billion in April, ‘aligning with broad trend of forex reserve diversification’ - Global Times Ole S Hansen on X: "A historic #copper squeeze on the London Metal Exchange continues, with spot copper trading at a USD 379-a-tonne premium to the three-month futures, the highest level since 2021, signalling a shortage of supply for immediate delivery amid a recent rush from traders to ship copper https://t.co/eqWPXf8yTh " / X Copper Faces Historic Squeeze With LME Stockpiles Depleting Fast UBS and Pictet report data leak after cyber attack on provider Chain IQ - SWI swissinfo.ch Portugal tightens citizenship rules, doubles wait time for foreigners - The Economic Times Brexit the 'stupidest thing any country has ever done' Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Reuters: China's auto industry has inflated car sales for years through a government-backed grey market that registers new cars right off the assembly line and then ships them overseas as "used" vehicles. https://t.co/kht7RFdpX6 " / X Tesla robotaxi incidents caught on camera in Austin get NHTSA concern

Happy Brexit referendum day ! Time to rejoin? Most voters now support referendum to reverse Brexit – YouGov Markets : pretty calm, so far anyway. Higher crude prices, JPY weakens. Quite frankly, the rest is pretty orderly! doomsters not rewarded. Huge military might from the U.S being shown to everyone, yet apparently the 'sites' in Iran had been cleared before ? hence 'few' casualties', was there really such great intel ??...Iran can respond now to save face (and 'miss'), then they can all sit down and come up with new Abraham Accords deals, peace talks etc..? Traffic as usual in Hormuz.., Brent back to where it was on Friday, and so is pretty much everything else >>> reminder : this is the time when every tourist on various media channels become specialist on Middle East, Iran geopolitics >>> Fluid situation, risk has been reduced for clients, awaiting calmly for new opportunities Multiple oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz this morning, both in and outbound. No even a hint of disruption/Javier Blas According to the New York Times, U.S. intelligence believes Iran removed approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity from the Fordow facility prior to the strike. The current location of this nuclear material is unknown to the United States Tesla worries, Tesla robotaxi: Texas lawmakers ask to delay launch in Austin Germany and Italy are facing calls to move their gold out of New York following President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical turbulence Gold is leaving the vault! COMEX inventories are falling Iran’s parliament backs blocking Strait of Hormuz. Its closure will alienate Tehran further Pakistan condemns Trump's bombing of Iran - a day after nominating him for Peace Prize | Reuters U.S. calls on China to prevent Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz Regime change: Is Trump about to 'Make Iran Great Again'? Donald Trump says US has attacked three Iranian nuclear sites and ‘totally obliterated’ them | Iran | The Guardian Trump’s Attacks on Iran Were Based on ‘No Intel’: Sources B-2 bombers from Iran mission return to Missouri Javier Blas on X: "Multiple oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz this morning, both in and outbound. No even a hint of disruption. Oil loading across multiple ports in the Persian Gulf appears normal. If anything, export rates over the last week are higher than earlier in June | #OOTT #Iran" / X Fed's Waller was dovish in his interview Friday, tariffs are a one-time effect, pushed back against the idea of persistent price increases. Waller somewhat diverted from Powell's forward-looking monetary policy idea and advocated for lowering the policy rate potentially "as early as July." He said that inflation data have been fine, which gives the committee room to lower rates. He mentioned that the magnitude of impact from tariffs is likely to remain the same and uncertainty persists around the timing Spain agrees with NATO to skip 5% defence spending target | Reuters Why...how about europe united ?.. in its overall efforts.. Disturbing Test Shows What Happens When Tesla Robotaxi Sees a Child Mannequin Pop Out From Behind a School Bus Tesla robotaxi: Texas lawmakers ask to delay launch in Austin British Airways: Gulf flights cancelled and diverted as tension mounts | The Independent Financial Times on X: "Germany and Italy are facing calls to move their gold out of New York following President Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on the US Federal Reserve and increasing geopolitical turbulence. https://t.co/PdrJPzZ7Oy https://t.co/bx5pNj7rw9 " / X Global Markets Investor on X: "⚠️True US Dollar bear markets are usually 20-40%: 1970s (-30%) - End of Bretton Woods (USD delinked from gold) 1980s (-40%) - Plaza Accord (G7 nations devalued USD to reduce trade deficits) 2000s (-30%) - Post-9/11 policy shifts, Fed rate cuts The US Dollar is down 9% YTD. https://t.co/N9xkkviI5Z " / X BofA sees $4,000 gold price on US debt concerns, not war - MINING.COM Silver prices are surging. Is it a better investment than gold now? - CBS News nothing wrong with diversifying some.. making sure to ADD XPTUSD PLAT too Steve Hanke on X: "Gold is leaving the vault! COMEX inventories are falling. Demand for physical gold is exploding. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/Octn6ZvDf5 " / X Column: Copper smelters are facing both market and pricing crises - MINING.COM Time to Brejoin? Most voters now support referendum to reverse Brexit - YouGov