Trump's BBBill : ''nailed it'' ! more debt, #duration watch / Trade deal, tariffs, focus again / UKR-RU, ME in balance
- Stéphan
- Jul 4
- 4 min read
Happy 249th Independence Day
Republican Senator Rand Paul: “This will be the largest increase in our debt ceiling in our history…once conservative Republicans vote for this, there is no conservative opposition. They will own it. The debt will be owned by the Republicans."
Markets : SPX500 on highs by the close yesterday on the Beautiful Bill passing..., watch UST yields long-end now for signs if/when bond markets starts to be worried again.. .Witkoff is off to Middle East next week, Iran meeting, signs of 'regional peace deal' possible still, Trump floated a China trip this year, no progress made in UKR-RU (Trump ‘disappointed’ with Putin after phone call), Trump's trade war continues vs EU, China etc, he wants ''the world to squeeze out China''... (China has most of the cards though..) and yes the BBBill has passed (218 vs 214), fiscal deficits as far as her eye can see ! and ...a defense spending down to 2.7% over next 10'years, which is...well below NATO target..
“We have far more than 170 countries and how many deals can you make? I’d rather send out a letter saying this what you’re going to pay.” , Trump says countries to start paying tariffs on Aug 1, floats range of 10% to 70%
EU-US trade talks : 'impossible' before 9th July deadline, says VdL
Total US debt is now expected to hit $40 TRILLION THIS YEAR/thread
NFP June report, +147K vs +106 expected, no chance of FED moving this month, in the balance for Sep now.. However, Rolling 6months sum of job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions
US Dollar vs. Latin American Equities/Thread/chart
China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine. Wang Yi speaks of concern that US could shift whole focus in China’s direction in talks with top EU diplomat Beijing
Nailed it ! (1) The White House on X: "🇺🇸 LFG – The Golden Age is about to be LIT! 🇺🇸 The ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL has PASSED — and it’s en route to President Trump’s desk! https://t.co/HKocu3AAaE" / X
This is the official message form the WH
Simply put together by Ray Dalio...fiscal dominance + incoming monetisation
(1) Steve Rosenberg on X: "One Russian paper on tensions with Azerbaijan: “Although Azerbaijan’s leaders are not openly criticising Putin, this is a direct challenge to Putin & Russia's leadership.” Plus, Russian schools to “put more emphasis on moral, spiritual & patriotic component.” #ReadingRussia https://t.co/7gERUQADcK" / X
Nick Timiraos on X: "The June jobs report does little to reconcile a hazy outlook for Fed cuts besides very likely torpedoing whatever chance there was of a July cut, particularly if stocks continue to push to new highs. https://t.co/t9QpCrtg0M If you thought the labor market was gently cooling and" / X
Liz Ann Sonders on X: "Rolling 6m sum of @ChallengerGray job cut announcements has risen to level consistent with prior recessions https://t.co/OmzUlMFPM9" / X
Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "US Dollar vs. Latin American Equities: A classic macro alligator mouth that, in my view, is likely to close as global investors begin rotating out of US dollar-based assets. Emerging market equities remain one of the most fundamentally undervalued areas of the market and have https://t.co/ilLs71NH6z" / X
love that chart
(1) Aaron Rupar on X: "Trump: "I just signed an executive order to raise entrance fees while keeping fees for Americans. The National Parks will be about America first." https://t.co/JxKmXVRbUS" / X
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