AI disruption, CBRE reset / Drone carrier, Ariane 64 ! / EU : 'Buy European policy', deregs, moving faster! / U.S CPI next
- Stéphan
- 17 hours ago
- 4 min read
Informal EU Leader's Retreat in Alden Biesen Castle : Von Der Leyen announces that the EU will "move forward faster" and deliver results by June...deregs etc....looks like EU moving full steam ahead (yes yes, let's wait for delivery..IMHO..feels like this time it is happening...), so many positive developments/things going in Europe, it's fair to say, Europe has just launched the first heavy rocket, the Ariane 64 (why aren't EU media all over this success? the U.S would be.., Macron & Merz clash on how to solve European competitiveness. Merz wants more deregulation, while Macron wants to prefer European procurement >>> do both to a certain degree, compromise, move on, and fast ! ..Europe can only assert itself if it is economically strong – and that strength depends on a competitive industrial base (Merz), Portugal builds Europe's first dedicated drone carrier
Markets : after software, logistics, transport, fins, now CBRE next in line with the 'AI reset', Navarro sees 'significant' USMCA flaws, CBRE (real estate scare), >>> 'INSIDERS' activity in U.S stocks lately is almost 98% ALL selling, U.S CPI up next, one of those moment when many contacts and clients calling and asking 'what's going on'.. meaning too many longs out there, crowded trades, all similarly positioned supported by low vols (VIX), crazy valuations (we see how quickly things can unfold)... be prepared, hedge, reduce risk, and have a shopping list ready...always... on silly sell-offs
Trade : US and Taiwan sign trade agreement to seal chip investment, deal will reduce American tariffs on a range of Taiwanese food products, the 'sell America' is more of a reduce America & buy everything else globally, rebalance! (Asian stocks have made their best start over US equities since at least 2000),
Geopolitics : Russia memo sees return to U.S. dollar system in pitch made for Trump, South Africa's Ramaphosa to deploy army to combat crime,
Big tech Bro's getting scared, they should be, Google warns EU against ‘erecting walls’ in tech sovereignty push (MSFT - France's Visio etc)
Seriously delinquent rates in multifamily mortgages at Freddie Mac are up to 0.48%, the highest in at least 21 years. The percentage has DOUBLED over the last 2 years
Europe has a narrow window of opportunity. Just as we acted on health in the pandemic and on defence after Ukraine, now they must act on competitiveness. • Complete the Single Market • Simplify procedures • Turn savings into investment • Strengthen strategic autonomy • Pursue ambitious free and fair trade agenda....UK better get in or much closer fast !...just saying
Macron & Merz clash on how to solve European competitiveness. Merz wants more deregulation, while Macron wants to prefer European procurement >>> to do both to a certain degree, compromise, move on, and fast !
Bart De Wever on X: "Yesterday, at the informal European Council in Alden Biesen, the 27 EU leaders reached broad agreement on three urgent priorities for Europe’s competitiveness. First, we must bring down energy costs for our industry - including through reform of the EU Emissions Trading System https://t.co/Cr0MOhLoaL" / X
“AI” is a neat headline, but it doesn’t explain a 30% drop in two days. AI disruption is a slow, multi‑year margin story; this kind of move is about liquidity and the fee pool. CBRE is effectively a proxy for real estate deal and refinancing volumes, so when cap rates reset, lenders tighten, and price discovery stalls, volumes – and therefore fees – are the first things to vanish. That’s still fundamentals, just not the kind that shows up cleanly in last quarter’s EPS. The real tell is what had to change in the deal and financing backdrop to justify such a sudden repricing: this isn’t AI eating brokerage, it’s a frozen transaction market and a more fragile financing window than investors assumed, and the stock is adjusting to that reality.
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