VIX and SPX up yesterday (vols got dragged far too low - but interesting nonetheless) China’s central bank cut its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points from 2% to 1.9%, first reduction in nearly 1year >>> USDCNH 7.16 BoE's Catherine Mann remains "very concerned" about persistent UK inflation pressures, she drew particular attention to high wages for new hires, "sticky" core CPI, and uncomfortable price gains in the services industry Luxury goods: Europe’s joke on the world -The old continent profits from the cultural insecurities of other regions/FT article UK two-year yield rises to its highest since 2008 on jobs data (surpassing the Trussonomics levels) as UK private sector wage growth accelerates to 7.6% >>> could argue 50bps next week! US regulators move to block Microsoft's Activision takeover Trump's "peril is extreme" : Former federal prosecutor on the historic Mar-a-Lago indictment and Privileges Committee finds Boris Johnson deliberately misled Parliament – report To put things into perspective: 10 stocks have contributed 90% of S&P 500's 13.0% gain this year, the most concentrated mkt ever, Bernstein says - EVERCORE: “A mountain of money” in money market accounts is “fuel for an equity momentum market move” — and could “accelerate the arrival of our year end S&P 500 Price Target of 4,450 to as early as July 4 ..” "Total debt as a share of GDP hit 295% in China last September, surpassing 257% in the U.S. and an average of 258% in the eurozone." The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $2.1 trillion , highest since Feb 2021. This is occurring when the economy is still in an economic expansion w/ Unemployment @ 3.7%. What happens to the deficit when recession hits? Markets : FANG's up 70% YTD, must be a lot of chasing, FOMO style buying going on lately. .NIKKEI back to 1990 highs, that's going back some! USDollar slightly softer ahead of all the CB events, with CROSSJPY's higher overall on higher risk and yields, imho we go 25bps for FOMC; ECB and SNB, BoJ should also move, and BoE next week could very well go 50bps, all of which is fairly well priced so language will be key, as usual, path forward is key Brent hit 2023 lows , WTU $67 good for consumers! Biggest standout in fund manager positioning is the overweight to bonds and underweight to equities... see Thread below The year so far in the noisy medias.. (no names!) : January: soft landing! February: no landing! March: hard landing! April: credit crunch surely? May: it’s just mega cap tech June: it’s a bull market!!!! Will the Fed’s third mandate be in play tomorrow? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Barchart on Twitter: "JP Morgan's prediction for how the S&P 500 will react to this week's CPI reading. Warning: JP Morgan tends to get these almost always wrong https://t.co/zNp7TBnfYr" / Twitter - irrelevant whether you or I agree with it or not.. many in markets, algos will follow this path... Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Biggest standout in fund manager positioning is the overweight to bonds and underweight to equities... This type of positioning is only going to work in 2 scenarios: 1. Bonds rally, stocks fall 2. Bonds rally, stocks rally, but bonds do more https://t.co/ekJzd4YGVq" / Twitter Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $2.1 trillion, highest since Feb 2021. This is occurring when the economy is still in an economic expansion w/ Unemployment @ 3.7%. What happens to the deficit when recession hits? https://t.co/eJFnnIJb97" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "To put things into perspective: 10 stocks have contributed 90% of S&P 500's 13.0% gain this year, the most concentrated mkt ever, Bernstein says. The stocks are AAPL (up 39%), MSFT (+36%), NVDA (+164%), GOOG (+38%), AMZN (+48%), META (+120%), TSLA (+91%), AVGO (+45%), AMD (+87%)… https://t.co/oFK0AIZEVY" / Twitter Fueled by Long Credit Binge, China’s Economy Faces Drag From Debt Purge - WSJ Luxury goods: Europe’s joke on the world | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> full on masterpiece of a column US moves to block Microsoft's Activision takeover - BBC News China cuts key policy rate as post-Covid recovery fizzles; yuan hits 6-month low (cnbc.com) Has China’s power peaked? - GZERO Media china faces the worst demographic trajectory of any country we’ve ever seen in peacetime >>> population now about 1.4b , and so it seems...est population in 2100 : 475-700m (!) Trump indictment 'shocking' and portrays him as a 'great threat' to US national defence (msn.com) Trump's "peril is extreme": Former federal prosecutor on the historic Mar-a-Lago indictment | Salon.com Privileges Committee finds Boris Johnson deliberately misled Parliament – report (thelondoneconomic.com) Thanks BoJo and Co.. Brexit cited as a major concern as US business confidence in Britain drops (cityam.com) Ken Griffin bullish on shift in Japan Inc. as Citadel returns to Tokyo - Nikkei Asia Swiss inflation rate falls to lowest level since start of Ukraine war - SWI swissinfo.ch >>> CREDIT SUISSE: “Our work indicates that YoY inflation is likely to fall to 4.2% in May, 3.2% in June .. this would represent one of the greatest drops experienced in a 2-month period over the past 70 years.” SWISS braced for strike action disruption to flights - SWI swissinfo.ch Factbox: Toyota unveils battery, production innovations for new EVs | Reuters To move on, consign Boris Johnson and his vanity to spam (thetimes.co.uk) Elements on Twitter: "Lithium has become essential in recent years, primarily due to the boom in electric vehicles and other clean technologies that rely on lithium batteries 🔋 We've visualized the world’s largest lithium producing countries: https://t.co/OlDGSEtqnx https://t.co/QIYldsKAFx" / Twitter

UBS says it has completed the takeover of stricken rival Credit Suisse Weak ahead , U.S CPI ahead of FOMC on Wednesday, ECB, SNB all likely to hike 25bps, though the 'language' from Powell will be key as usual, BoJ could surprise on Friday, BoE is next week, they will need to hike too China has had a spy base in Cuba for years , which it last expanded in 2019, a US official familiar said, after the White House downplayed an earlier WSJ report on the facility OpenAI CEO says 'optimistic' on global AI coordination Portugal just launched a ‘government-funded’ 4-day workweek trial Trump’s hoarding of official secrets is both breathtakingly careless and utterly calculate Boris Johnson’s Rise and Fall , the disgraced former Prime Minister’s long career at the top of British politics should be a matter of national shame 'Companies are sitting on ~$200 billion of excess inventory" - MS, one of the reasons Mike WIlson remains bearish Another milestone. In May, wind and solar produced more electricity in the EU than fossil fuels – for the first time . 'Europe’s electricity transition has hit hyperdrive. Clean power keeps smashing record after record.' Markets : SPX500 is now '20% off lows, and thus in a bull market', they all saying now, few other parts have caught up last 2weeks, Russell no long lagging etc, NQ near highs, DAX 16K+ all priced to near perfection? breath improved last 2weeks, but there is always a but.. USDollar mixed, markets wants to see-talk-think of a pause after this 'final' hike, whether it comes now or in July, thus some USD weakness ahead quite possible.. Crude sub $70 again Rates are in a higher plateau for longer, still remains our overall view, a pause does not equal a cut in the very near future Can FOMC and BoJ pop the rapidly inflating bubble? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) T. Rowe Sees BOJ Policy 'San Andreas Fault' of Global Finance Is at Hand | Financial Post China’s Inflation Problem? It Has None - WSJ In China, as this article notes, low inflation mainly indicates Beijing's great difficulty in boosting domestic demand. It isn't really a good thing. Wind and solar overtake fossil generation in the EU | Ember (ember-climate.org) The Ultimate Deal | Fintan O’Toole | The New York Review of Books (nybooks.com) Trump’s hoarding of official secrets is both breathtakingly careless and utterly calculated Trump indictment is 'very, very damning,' his former attorney general says (cnbc.com) Boris Johnson scuttles away from his flagrant crimes, like a whingeing guilty schoolboy | Andrew Rawnsley | The Guardian PPE Firm Subject to £122m Recovery Action from UK Government Has Only £4m in Assets – Byline Times Arnaud Bertrand on Twitter: "Very good - and frightening - opinion piece on US-China by Lanxin Xiang, a professor of International Relations at IHEID in Geneva, Switzerland. He argues that the US's current trajectory wrt China leads us to war. He thinks that China "has pretty much given up on the Biden… https://t.co/26laa232LI" / Twitter UBS says it has completed the takeover of Credit Suisse (cnbc.com) US Banks to Pull the Plug on Binance (finews.asia) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good morning from Germany where the deindustrialization continues. High energy prices & rigid rules are hurting Germany's industry. Companies have begun to relocate their production or build new plants abroad. Industry now accounts for only 23.5% of German GDP, compared w/>30%… https://t.co/GuZRJipOh2" / Twitter Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S. - WSJ OpenAI CEO says 'optimistic' on global AI coordination | Reuters Portugal just launched a 'government-funded' 4-day workweek trial (cnbc.com) Manchester City, Premier League champions*? - The Athletic Manchester City’s players & coaching team deserve huge credit for extraordinary success. So too do their recruitment team. But if now is not the time to question the how behind it, then when is? A piece on how we are all supposed to make sense of this. Palantir's Alex Karp: Tech leaders calling for AI pause have no product (cnbc.com) ‘Black Swan’ author slams crypto, calls Bitcoin a cult | Fortune

U.S claims : The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits in early June jumped to a nearly two-year high of 261,00 0, but most of the increase took place in just two states: Ohio and California >>> and July back to 75% chance of no hike / skipping, USDolllar duly followed lower, risk mixed to slightly higher, rotating etc etc China : Producer price index in May fell 4.6%, marking the steepest year-on-year drop in seven years , when producer prices saw a year-on-year drop of 7.2% in May 2016 ChatGPT got its first libel lawsuit. Legal experts say it won't be the last lawsuit prompted by AI hallucinations!.. and it will all hinge on whether AI companies are protected by Section230 Google has officially changed its mind about remote work UK PM Rishi Sunak and US president Joe Biden made some transatlantic promises , though details are scanty, not a trade deal.. Donald Trump has been indicted over his handling of classified documents after he left the White House Learning to live with Russia. Western support remains key in securing Ukraine’s future. But in a non-polar world, Europe must accept that Russia’s fate is beyond its control BoJ is said to still see the need to continue monetary stimulus -Yen dips further after BoJ is said to likely stick with yield curve control in June President Tayyip Erdogan named Hafize Gaye Erkan as new governor of the central ban k. Announcement completes a makeover of Erdogan’s econ team following Mehmet Simsek’s appointment as FinMin — appointments that may signal a return to more conventional policies Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S. Beijing agrees to pay Havana several billion dollars for eavesdropping facility....wait what ?? China, Cuba,, headline reminiscent of the early 1960's..!! US data giant Palantir has said Britain is a better place to develop artificial intelligence (AI) than the EU thanks to more “pragmatic” privacy laws Ray Dalio , founder of the worlds biggest hedge fund, says the U.S is going to issue a large amount of government debt and there is a shortage of buyers. He calls this the beginning of “big cycle debt crisis” - Apple cuts Vision Pro sales target to 150K units vs previously discussed 1M units Markets: U.S claims higher, 2sUST 10bps lower, USDollar weakens, and NQ takes over again, rotation of the previous rotation, with markets pulling each other up ! USDollar fails at 0.9100CHF, 140JPY and below 1.2400GBP, EURO 1.0650 area solid support now, AUDUSD also shouldn0't go below .6600 area with RBA back hiking, ,similarly CAD, JPY weakens again this morning as BoJ said to 'likely stick with YCC in June' SPX500 grinding higher, huge roation around July Fed and short-term rates perception, markets rotating from one sector to the next, taking things up overall, all in a very low vol environment (AND a lower FED balance-sheet too, now down to 8.4TRN) '''The fear index Vix has dropped to 3y low as S&P 500 has entered bull market. Up >20% since an October low''' not exactly time to go all in now though U.S. jobless claims leap to nearly two-year high of 261,000 (msn.com) Claims are slowly bur surely on the UP China economy: Inflation cools in May, CPI and PPI shows (cnbc.com) "Producer price falls are steepening, as a result of excess capacity" BOJ's Ueda flags shift in corporate pricing, upward inflation bias | Reuters Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden sign ‘Atlantic declaration’ but hope of trade deal ends | Foreign policy | The Guardian Pantheon Macro on Twitter: ""The EZ Economy Fell into a Technical Recession in Q4 and Q1" @ClausVistesen https://t.co/XyIARbJPlI #PantheonMacro https://t.co/yJhc91DOWt" / Twitter Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the US is at the start of a debt crisis - and worse times are ahead for the economy (yahoo.com) Cuba to Host Secret Chinese Spy Base Focusing on U.S. - WSJ been denied by China... but still.. Gustav Helgesson on Twitter: "Household consumption was revised up sharply from terrible to decent in today's report. All of a sudden, the household picture is much more rosy. Keep in mind that monthly data is much more volatile and uncertain this time around... Difficult to interpret! https://t.co/vKf1mX9E1p" / Twitter Technical analysis on gold: can it break above $2000 and when? (thearmchairtrader.com) Good in-depth write up Why do AI tools like ChatGPT hallucinate? (qz.com) U.S. Congress to consider two new bills on artificial intelligence | Reuters Google has officially changed its mind about remote work (qz.com) Kampf der Züri-Titanen: Blocher schiesst auf Kielholz - Inside Paradeplatz Donald Trump: Former President charged over mishandling classified documents (msn.com) Trump indictment news today: Trump faces up to 100 years in jail as he declares ‘I am an innocent man’ | The Independent 100 sounds a lot..!! "If you intentionally move classified information or obstruct justice in an investigation, you will go to jail, but we will see what happens." Former Chief White House ethics lawyer, Richard Painter responds to Trump's indictment ‘An ungodly, dystopian landscape’: New York’s skies underscore climate stakes | The Hill Learning to live with Russia (prospectmagazine.co.uk) Dorries, Sharma, and Johnson’s father Stanley ‘dropped from former PM’s honours list’ | The Independent Jeremy Hunt poised to ease windfall tax in boost for North Sea (telegraph.co.uk) Such a classic - rubbish policy, as they simply look back and change their mind, look at retrospective data etc etc, thus means their policy was wrong , end Boost for Sunak as tech chief hails Britain’s AI potential (telegraph.co.uk) have a super Friday and weekend team PVM

U.S. President Joe Biden on Wednesday directed his administration to deploy “all available federal firefighting assets” that can quickly respond to the wildfires raging across Canada, Hundreds of wildfires burn in country, with 238 ‘out of control’ as of Tuesday afternoon, blanketing cities in smoke, what a terrible situation Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks. Turkey is heading for a classic currency crisis. All of its reserves and then some are borrowed, USDTRY is now 23+, down 25% YTD, market showing no confidence for Erdogan's ''policies'' Saudi Arabia’s takeover of the PGA tour is just one step of its sportswashing plan UK to host first global summit on AI safety, Rishi Sunak announces Druckenmiller : “I would actually argue since it’s taken so long and the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate… that it increases the probability of a hard landing.” - full article/interview below With the recent leg up, 2s UST nearing 4.60% -- some 80 basis points above the low levels of March, April, and early May but short of the 5.07% that prevailed just before the banking tremors. This is ahead of -2- significant events next week: the May CPI inflation data and, of course, the FED policy meeting Barnier , the man who negotiated the terms of Brexit from the EU side, saying here clearly that the UK can rejoin the EU anytime ''the door is always open'' Markets : Crude, commods holding up/slightly firmer , reaction to China trying to kick start a few things locally (commods oversold - worth having a look again) USD directionless, but much more down to what policies RoW are following , MXN vs TRY the biggest divergence and its reacting still Bonds grinding lower, as RBA, BoC giving signs or hint perhaps other CB's will have to have another push higher over next few months (certainly no cuts!..), question the skipping ! Fed July hike almost fully priced in again.. Equity markets got a little nudge lower on BoC, a reminder to those calling for cuts...that rates will be most likely, high(er) for longer The V IX ended the day at 13.94, its lowest close since February 2020 >>> that's when you should reduce risk and start to buy some hedges Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter: "With the recent leg up, the yield on 2-year US government #bonds is nearing 4.60% -- some 80 basis points above the low levels of March, April, and early May but short of the 5.07% that prevailed just before the banking tremors. This comes ahead of two significant events next… https://t.co/PQQnEwKnsM" / Twitter Air quality – live: New York pollution to remain hazardous as no end in sight for Canada wildfire smoke (msn.com) horrendous situation out there Raging wildfires in Quebec drive intense smoke and hazy skies farther across the eastern US and Canada (msn.com) the pictures are just from another Mad Max world... Newsweek on Twitter: "New York City skies turned orange and hazy Wednesday as dense wildfire smoke continued to cover the area. https://t.co/P6kr5Cn7uw" / Twitter Alf on Twitter: "Bank of Canada hiking again. I feel the urge to share this chart: Canada today has more private sector debt than Japan at the peak of the 1990s real estate bubble. Not sure how this ends well for the Canadian real estate market and economy. https://t.co/QXezSAzB12" / Twitter well worth a read.. Jesse Felder on Twitter: "'Commodities appear deeply oversold relative to the S&P 500.' https://t.co/bwa6Nmaj5l via @SoberLook https://t.co/Vk7PhtHJse" / Twitter Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org) Stanley Druckenmiller Offers A Blunt Warning To Investors (msn.com) China trade tumbles in May, adding to signs economic recovery is slowing | AP News Nothing new ?.. The English manor house that became a thriving commune - Positive News If you prepare to really live differently... What sports and tournaments is Saudi Arabia spending money on? (qz.com) SEC declares war on Binance and Coinbase: game over for crypto? (thearmchairtrader.com) UK to host first global summit on AI safety, Rishi Sunak announces | ITV News UBS Gets Breathing Room for Higher Capital Requirements (finews.asia) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Mind the gap: While Big Tech from the US has regained strength this year, Big Tech in China is more and more now becoming Small Tech. The Nasdaq Dragon Index w/Chinese stocks is still 68% below its all-time high, the Nasdaq 100 only 14%. https://t.co/4uuuz2mq2M" / Twitter worth a look? Nick Tyrone on Twitter: "Barnier, the man who negotiated the terms of Brexit from the EU side, saying here clearly that the UK can rejoin the EU anytime, debunking the naysayers on both sides of the European debate in Britain who say the EU would never let us back in: https://t.co/TUtlSR7vzc" / Twitter Peston on Twitter: "“The door is always open” Former EU Chief Brexit Negotiator @MichelBarnier tells @Peston the UK can rejoin the EU any time #Peston https://t.co/hz6pjwWpsy" / Twitter https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-07/dalio-says-us-in-late-big-cycle-debt-crisis-bloomberg-invest have a great day Team PVM

Ukraine dam: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka Goldman Sachs: "We have cut our judgmental probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months back to 25% , undoing our upward revision to 35% shortly after the SVB failure." + China having a go at property markets (cutting lending rates) UBS revises its Fed call: One more hike, in July, Now sees first cut (only) in December ; was previously forecasting a cut in September "We continue to expect a recession in the US beginning later this year, despite the seemingly teflon nonfarm payroll employment gains." The market cap for the “S&P7” equals the Fed balance sheet China set to account for less than half of US’s low-cost imports from Asia. Reshoring index shows inbound Chinese goods fell to lowest level in 10 years amid geopolitical tensions Salesforce wants employees back in the office so badly that it's donating $10 to local charities for every day an employee comes into work The Securities and Exchange Commission is suing Binance with a series of charges, as the crypto giant continues to face growing regulatory pressures in the US The Swedish population is becoming less hostile to the idea of adopting the euro as the krona trades near its weakest levels ever UK house prices book first annual contraction in a decad e. Property prices down 1% last month compared with May 2022, the first annual fall since December 2012 >> positive! -US Secretary of State Blinken Set to Travel to Beijing for Talks in Coming Weeks -"The governor of the Saudi wealth fund Yasir Al Rumayyan, himself a keen golfer, will be chairman of the new entity, which also includes the European golf tournament." >>> money doesn't talk, it screams! Markets : VIX below 15 SPX500 liking life above 4200, Russell catching up/breaking through 1825 area. The S&P 500 has clawed back months of losses --closing at 2023 high and highest level since last August UST 2y 4.50% still, the TGA should slowly start to rebuild cash (sell few UST's-over time), nothing new but this will be a drain over time (as opposed to H1 2023) USD stays firm near recent highs, as yields picked last few weeks, up so did the USD, the surprise for many is how well equity markets are doing overall >>> IMHO vols so low systematic fund keep on buying for now (and we broke 4150-4200 top end of the prev range), Call volume in $SPX continues to surge to new all-time highs Recently rising to $700B in a single day of notional value exchanged on the call side Ukraine dam: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka - BBC News this is so bagshittcrazy Christopher Miller on Twitter: "Video showing the flooding and devastation in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson oblast, a day after the Kakhovka Dam under Russian forces’ control was destroyed. https://t.co/k6ys9rnjij" / Twitter Africa mulls alternatives to US dollar - Chinadaily.com.cn "We have already witnessed a sharp slide in dollar reserves, which fell from 55 percent in 2021 to 47 percent in 2022, which is an unprecedented 8-percentage-point drop in a single year." Further Property Support Measures Expected In China Soon | FastReveal Lira Drop Accelerates In Sign Turkey Government’s Loosening Grip - BNN Bloomberg consequences of for ever borrowing with a huge current account deficit..currency breaks, big risk of going really wrong.. (venezuela, Argentina and so on) Brad Setser on Twitter: "Turkey has blown through a lot of reserves this spring trying to prop up the lira -- reserves that it really doesn't have. All its reserves and then some are borrowed. A new blog https://t.co/m5NEIXQnKI" / Twitter Swedish krona at weakest point against euro since financial crisis - The Local Today - 02/06/2023 - BBC Sounds early FB investor talks about AI, 22.5 minutes into it well worth a listen Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Goldman Sachs: "We have cut our judgmental probability that the US economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months back to 25%, undoing our upward revision to 35% shortly after the SVB failure." https://t.co/bejMiwyDie" / Twitter China set to account for less than half of US’s low-cost imports from Asia | Financial Times (ft.com) Samantha LaDuc on Twitter: "Funny how the market cap for the “S&P7” equals the Fed balance sheet! 😂 • Apple $AAPL • Alphabet $GOOG • Amazon $AMZN • Meta $META • Microsoft $MSFT • Nvidia $NVDA • Tesla $TSLA Now let’s see if the Generals’ soldiers (Jr Tech) do some solid catch up with Value.🤔" / Twitter Salesforce Lures Employees Back in the Office by Donating to Charity (businessinsider.com) once folks get used to a style of work/living... London Tube journeys bounce back to near pre-pandemic levels | Evening Standard Almost back to normal in London! SEC Sues Binance (finews.asia) In Zürich sind Brunnen pink eingefärbt worden – das steckt dahinter (watson.ch) How Google is driving up rents in Zurich - SWI swissinfo.ch Nuts ! UK house prices book first annual contraction in a decade | Financial Times (ft.com) Everybody moans prices are too high, so it's a good thing !!! UK to have highest inflation in developed world this year, OECD warns | Business News | Sky News Housing: It's cheaper to buy than rent in only 4 major US cities, study shows (yahoo.com) The PGA Tour, LIV Golf and the European Tour have announced a surprise merger. What does it mean for the future of golf? (msn.com)

Saxo/NFP : One of those impossible US jobs reports . Ridiculous blowout on establishment survey (NFPs) beating over +200k incl. revisions, but household survey spikes UR to 3.7% from 3.4% with no participation rate pickup. Earnings weaker than exp despite yet another drop in weekly hours.... US Q1 unit labor costs 4.2% vs 6.0% expected , ISM Prices Paid 44.2 (exp 52.3), ISM Manuf supplier deliveries collapse, index fell to 43.5 in May, lowest since March 2009, ADP stronger though at 278K, Initial jobless claims steady at 232k >>> bumper employment data and low inflation, however a note of cautious : May ⁦Challenger job cut announcements rose 287% y/y vs. 176% in prior month; tech sector led the pack with 22,887 cuts in May & total of 137k YTD, the most for the sector since 2009 Job Cuts From AI Are Just Beginning, the Latest Challenger Report Suggests "The magnitude and duration of defaults in the next downturn is likely to surprise investors, based on our client conversations....We believe US HY, US Loan, and European spec-grade default rates will peak at 9%, 11.3%, and 5.8% in Q4’24:" DB's Default Study 2023 "More than 100% of SPX market cap gains this year have been driven by just 7 stocks with 3 stocks accounting for nearly 70%.... S&P 500 is up 9.1% led by Tech (+30%) while Russell 2000 is down 0.8% and the equal weight S&P 500 is 1.1% lower:" Citi's Stuart Kaiser (...concentration of risk). Lagarde : The ECB is likely to move more cautiously from here - "we'll keep hiking, but...", "having hiked so far and so fast – considerable tightening is still in the pipeline Monzo ramps up provisions for debts turning sour >>> the 'buy now and pay later' become 'buy now and pay never' An entire movie was generated by AI . Every single pixel you see on link below is fake. An update on the number of AI related mentions on earnings calls and other transcripts of publicly traded companies: {Data from TA} - Thread below About 1.6mln UK mortgages fixed at rates under 2% set to end between now & Q3 2024 BOFA CEO Moynihan says US consumer spending is slowing Elon Musk is accused of insider trading by investors in Dogecoin lawsuit and The average price of a used Tesla is $22k lower than the peak last July . Now at a new all-time low due to huge price cuts & shift in supply to lower priced models Markets : Commodity prices over the last year - see below Thread >>> '' they may start to turn with weaker usd'', as rates pause/peak/skip etc.. STOCKS expect some kind of straight line earnings growth of about 20% through 2025 & BONDS are pricing the deepest rate cuts cycle of all time (pretty much) to begin sometimes over the next 6-9months >>> this seems rather hopeful! Nikkei near all time highs, KOSPI in near bull market, China /HSI the other way, India near record highs though too, not all up or down, same as megacaps vs RTY etc USDollar starts the month on weak side , gives away soonest the month-end fix is done, slightly weaker data overall, let's see what NFP does now VIX lower, new recent lows, clearly helping eq markets overall/systematic etc Oops - that wasn’t supposed to happen post-debt ceiling. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) SPX was +0.3% in May >>>> while SEVEN sectors were down over 4% (healthcare, financials, utilities, energy, materials, staples and realestate) Job Cuts From AI Are Just Beginning, the Latest Challenger Report Suggests - Bloomberg yeps.. Bank of Canada will ‘actively’ talk about rate hikes after GDP surprise, experts say (msn.com) A U.S. envoy’s tongue-lashing of South Africa infuriates Foggy Bottom - POLITICO Crypto is lackadaisical right now, says Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz (cnbc.com) Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "Commodity price changes over the last year… Sugar: +29% Silver: +8% Gold: +7% US CPI: +4.9% Copper: -16% Corn: -19% Soybeans: -23% Coffee: -25% Brent Crude: -38% Cotton: -39% Gasoline: -40% WTI Crude: -41% Zinc: -42% Wheat: -43% Lumber: -43% Heating Oil: -46% Natural Gas: -74%" / Twitter >>> though after 7 straight monthly declines following the peak last July, Used Car prices have been moving higher again, up 5% in March-May... Sofia Horta e Costa on Twitter: "As Chinese stocks slump, indexes in India are near a record, in Japan near a three-decade high and the Kospi in South Korea is about to enter a bull market. @IshikaMookerjee writes about the structural reallocation of capital in Asia - away from China. https://t.co/c4YrrIhYAO https://t.co/9ybtXXkT3S" / Twitter Dr. Eli David on Twitter: "This entire movie was generated by AI. Every single pixel you see here is fake 🤯 RIP Hollywood ⚰️ https://t.co/VlIIv8zb5g" / Twitter jeroen blokland on Twitter: "YIKES! The #ISM Manufacturing Index for New Orders dropped to 42.6 in May, which is closer to, but not yet at, #recession levels. https://t.co/UTiwa1pPOo" / Twitter >>> "Manufacturers and their supply chains have seen pricing power shift rapidly from the seller to the buyer over the course of the past year, resulting in a dramatic cooling of industrial price pressures." Michael McDonough on Twitter: "An update on the number of AI related mentions on earnings calls and other transcripts of publicly traded companies: {Data from TA<Go>} *No shock here, it's gone vertical https://t.co/Alu1jrGqzk" / Twitter Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Deflation is coming to the Euro zone. It's an interesting psychological phenomenon that everyone followed company delivery times when they were stretched & inflationary in 2021, but no one's following then now that they're deflationary. Euro zone core inflation will keep falling. https://t.co/omN6VwsBWq" / Twitter European Central Bank on Twitter: "Our rate hikes are already feeding into lending conditions, President @Lagarde says at #Sparkassentag. We will keep moving forward until we see inflation returning to 2%, while also carefully assessing how our policies are passing through to the economy https://t.co/LheYq7L3eh https://t.co/IlBsMWVlNF" / Twitter Monzo ramps up provisions for debts turning sour (msn.com) Dimon Hints at Life After JPMorgan, Says He’d Consider Public Office (yahoo.com) Euro inflation slumps faster than expected to 6.1 per cent (cityam.com) Long Covid: one in five patients still report symptoms after two years - SWI swissinfo.ch Dogecoin investors accuse Elon Musk of insider trading in amended class-action lawsuit (cointelegraph.com) never too early ! Boris Johnson says he has handed over Covid WhatsApps - BBC News Smiley seal spotted in Ely becomes social media hit - BBC News US deal could plug Turkmenistan’s colossal methane emissions | Greenhouse gas emissions | The Guardian have a great weekend Team PVM

U.S debt ceiling drama over, they all got their air time live on TV, all hype and a nothing burger, defund the IRS, fiscal inconsistence, make noise then back down, as they say in Texas ''all hat and no cattle''.. Fedspeak: hear overnight from Boston Fed President Collins, Governor Bowman, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, and Governor Jefferson. Harker and Jefferson (both FOMC participants; ), expressed a preference for “skipping” a rate hike in June (skipping does not mean a cut clearly) >>> ADP set to report slightly slower job gains, but focus more on NFIB hiring plans America’s credit card balance has passed $1 trillion , or it’s about to, depending on whom you ask. The average interest rate on a new card is 24 percent, the highest figure since the Reaganomics era. A typical American household now carries $10,000 in credit card debt (student loan debt is $1.4trn) ‘You don’t want to pick up your trash, don’t come to the mountain,’ mountaineer Tenzi Sherpa said, as he shared visuals of trash left behind on Mount Everest U.S regional model for ISM Manufacturing falling off a cliff this week, forecasts an ISM Manufacturing Index off of 45.9 >>>> but still plenty of jobs out there : JOLTS : Job Openings 10.103MM, Exp. 9.4MM , Last 9.745MM Banks now have $515.6 billion in unrealized losses, per FDIC as of Q1 G ermany : consumers have gone on a buyers' strike (inflation and negativ real wages hurting..), retail sales slumped 8.6% in Apr, much higher than expected, mainly driven by a drop in food purchases of ~10%. Shows that Q2 also got off to a weak start. Dr. Garry Nolan, a professor at Stanford University’s medical school who worked with the CIA to analyze U.S. personnel who developed medical issues after alleged contact with UFOs, has stated that extraterrestrial life not only exists, but walks among us Markets : USdollar at risk of having peaked into month-end (short-term), particularly IF the Fed skips June, nothing dramatic, if/when, the next hike will get priced in July - more of tactical move SPX500, U.S markets and europe had a 'slight' loss of momentum into month-end too, but again nothing too dramatic, for now anyway. Big picture, we think valuatons far too high, eventual manufacturing recession, China, commods, crude, industrial metals etc could well weigh on rest of markets eventually, as rates start to bite AND challenging liquidity (see below) Crude >>> OPEC+ meets on 4th June with Crude below $70, when Saudi's have a budget rate of $80... -Bonds shifting Fed hike from June to July, ECB nailed on for June, market expectations might shift from 2 or 3 hikes to 1 or 2 hikes coming over next few months Debt ceiling deal: US House overwhelmingly passes bill - BBC News Drama over. Surging temple and lottery stocks mirror China's weak recovery | Reuters Shares in some Chinese temple operators and lottery sellers surged for a second day on Thursday amid a weak post-COVID recovery, as despondent young people rush to pray or gamble amid greater economic uncertainty, strewth! Challenging liquidity 1. Potent liquidity squeeze, as Treasury refills its TGA account – rates rise to effect required Fed B/S outflows (assuming QT at current pace) 2. QT meant nothing YTD, it will mean something now 3. TGA dynamics flip from a 3% addition to nominal GDP over past 5 months to a potential drawdown nearing 10% of GDP in the next 3 months (TS Lombard's Steve Blitz) Cyber-Hack bei Bitcoin Suisse reicht viel weiter - Inside Paradeplatz Reuters on Twitter: "‘You don’t want to pick up your trash, don’t come to the mountain,’ mountaineer Tenzi Sherpa said, as he shared visuals of trash left behind on Mount Everest https://t.co/dYZxcN1j7r" / Twitter totally ridiculous, scandalous in fact, discusting Some Things We've Learned This Year - A Wealth of Common Sense Don't listen to CNBC ? :-) ... #inversecramer ! jeroen blokland on Twitter: "#Germany's #retailsales were down a whopping 8.6% from a year ago in April. Compared to March, they were up 0.8% As the chart shows, German retail sales have been volatile, but the trend is down. https://t.co/zXW9y9ma7L" / Twitter jeroen blokland on Twitter: "Glass half full? #China's Caixin Manufacturing #PMI came in higher than expected and is back above 50. This compares to the 'official' Manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.8. The average of the two remains below 50, but given the market reaction yesterday, this is welcome news. https://t.co/wEEnerTV33" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Many AI stocks have more than doubled, and in some cases quadrupled, YTD. #Nvidia is 1st chip stock that was even worth a trillion dollars for a short time. Is Generative AI the next tech bubble? That's what we're arguing about on this week's DuZ podcast. https://t.co/MLbJTYQ0no https://t.co/sqcRlnRvRy" / Twitter AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "Dallas Fed PMI off a cliff yesterday. Chicago PMI off a cliff today. Here is our fitted regional model for ISM Manufacturing. It does NOT look pretty from here in the Manufacturing Sector. https://t.co/7ENN4rfn2k" / Twitter Americans now owe $1 TRILLION in credit card debt (msn.com) Deutsche Bank expects a big jump in corporate defaults. Here's why. - MarketWatch The Block: Binance lays off non-performers amid shrinking market share What Rishi Sunak is Trying to Hide with his WhatsApp Cover-Up – Byline Times For all the talk of 'precedents' and good governance, the real motivation for the Prime Minister's refusal to disclose information to the Covid Inquiry is his own self-protection Stanford Medical Professor: 'Aliens 100% Live Among Us' (breitbart.com) Dr. Garry Nolan, a professor at Stanford University’s medical school who worked with the CIA to analyze U.S. personnel who developed medical issues after alleged contact with UFOs, has stated that extraterrestrial life not only exists, but walks among us......ok then beware folks! Jamie Dimon on China: «There’ll Be Less Trade» (finews.asia) UK house prices fall by most since 2009, higher rates to bite-Nationwide | Reuters They had rallied far too much in previous covid years..

Very few U.S.-China flights are back despite the end of Covid, Fewer than 6% of U.S. flights to and from mainland China that existed in 2019 have resumed, pretty astonishing data, China manufacturing PMI dips in May (48.8) , falls short of expectations. Key manufacturing gauge underscores unstable post-COVID recovery US Debt Limit: The House Rules Committee has met to decide if the debt limit bill gets a full vote. Two far-right Republicans on the panel oppose it, and a GOP backbencher called for Kevin McCarthy's ouster. House passage on Wednesday is critical to getting Senate approval by the Monday deadline FED pricing has been a little more hawkish since mid May >> now market pricing in about 1 more hike in June, before 1 to2 cuts by end of 2023 Since market’s October low, S&P 500 Tech sector’s forward P/E has soared by nearly 46%, while forward EPS are still down UK : The “shy capitalists” want more of their own money, not toxic culture wars South Africa grants Putin and Brics leaders diplomatic immunity for summit First regional inflation prints surprised massively to the downside , with North Rhine Westphalia CPI 1% below exp in May >>> very decent downside surprises in French CPI (for example) and a big MoM drop in the PPI too, ''disinflation has arrived'' Fidelity marks Twitter valuation down to $15bn , that's a 3rd of what Musk paid for it The White House says "we do not support attacks inside of Russia" following the drone strikes in Moscow. The statement also said, their "focus is on helping Ukraine re-take its sovereign territory" ECB's Müller : probably too optimistic to see ECB rate cut in early 2024 Markets : Crude WTI dropping back below $70 , as a Fed hike in June become more likely following PCE, and OPEC+ seems likely to leave output unchanged at 4th June meeting, some chatters of 'no bids in Brent for july'.. EU NatGas lower lower, so cheap now again !!.. EU Natural Gas - 2023 Data - 2010-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote (tradingeconomics.com) USD firmer again, weak european and China data overnight, USDCNH 7.12 (AUDUSD sub 0.6500), while EURUSD sub 1.0750, it should stay offered The divergences between various parts of the markets are beginning to be quite alarming IMHO , it all 'looks well' to very well (NVDA, AI, well overbought now, but in reality it isn't pretty underneath AI and megacaps Commods : “China Logistics Information Center says the key problem with China’s economy is insufficient new demand , which leads to decreasing raw material purchases by companies” Wednesday briefing: What’s behind the drone attacks on Russia | Russia | The Guardian Fidelity Values Twitter At Roughly $15 Billion—A Third Of The Sticker Price Paid By Musk (forbes.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "German #disinflation continues. Import prices dropped 7% YoY in April, the most since corona crisis in 2020. https://t.co/SsWzPS9AHK" / Twitter Very few U.S.-China flights are back despite the end of Covid (cnbc.com) China manufacturing PMI dips in May, falls short of expectations - Nikkei Asia JPMorgan China CEO Says Expansion Taking Longer Than Expected - Caixin Global Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Since market’s October low, S&P 500 Tech sector’s forward P/E (blue) has soared by nearly 46%, while forward EPS (orange) are still down https://t.co/8KF0N59lwQ" / Twitter "Shy capitalists" want more of their money, not toxic culture wars (cityam.com) Goldman Sachs cutting jobs again amid Wall Street deals slump (cnbc.com) South Africa grants Putin and Brics leaders diplomatic immunity for summit | South Africa | The Guardian >>> USDZAR getting close to 20 ZAR/USD Rand Hits Fresh Record Low as South Africa Risks Stack Up - Bloomberg Nvidia shares go under the BridgeWise AI analysis microscope (thearmchairtrader.com) Bitcoin (BTC) Trades at a 20% Discount on Binance Australia Following Banking Issues in the Country (coindesk.com) COVID inquiry: Rishi Sunak accused of being 'slippery' over order to hand over Boris Johnson WhatsApp messages | Politics News | Sky News more lies, more cover up Best for Britain on Twitter: "How bad can you look in an 80-second clip. This bad. 👇🏽 The skill of a politician is to stick to their answer without looking like a myna bird, rocking on its perch, just mimicking human speech. ~AA https://t.co/uLmCE5tWoO" / Twitter he sounds more like a ChatGPT PM.. Sudanese army suspends talks over ceasefire - diplomatic source | Reuters Prince Harry's drugs admissions prompt US government to face court over visa application (telegraph.co.uk) Hang Seng 20% down YTD - pretty horrible chart

Busy week ahead , with inflation data in JPN and euroe, U.S JOLTS tom, China Caixin data on Thursday and U.S NFP Friday (with the usual US debt ceiling drama and AI boom) U.S debt ceiling doing what that 'China trade deal' was doing, ''buy the rumour and sell the fact' by the time they get there. -2- Republicans speak out against US debt-ceiling deal, in sign of rocky road ahead Hot PCE Data on Friday : Core PCE inflation came in stronger than expected, rising 0.380% m-o-m in April (Consensus was at 0.3%), expectations for June hike all but baked, what next though is where the market 'diverge' China turns down U.S. invitation for defense chiefs meeting . Pentagon proposed Lloyd Austin sit down with Li Shangfu, who is under sanction. A heat wave is sweeping across China, with #Guangzhou recording its highest temperature for May on Tuesday, hitting a record 38.5℃ Spanish prime minister calls for early general election UK shop prices hit highest levels since BRC records began ..some 18y ago Twitter leaves EU’s voluntary pact against disinformation After Turkey election win, what problems does Erdogan face next? Economic concerns and relations with the West lie at the top of Erdogan’s agenda after presidential run-off victory Markets : U.S PCE pushing rates higher, taking USD with is, risk still doing OK, mainly fulled by AI it is fair to say, though SPX popping its head above 4200 on 'favourable debt ceiling' outcome USD stronger overall, higher yields etc GOLD breaking through key support $1950 NVDA, NQ leading AI, SPX500 popping its head above 4200, Asia weak though Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Extreme divergence in equity market internals over last week Today, we note the extreme divergence in equity market themes over the last week that is a hidden development underneath the strong performance of the major US indices on Friday. We look at the moderate impact thus far of the debt ceiling agreement-in-principle reached at the weekend, discuss the strong earnings season and few interesting names set to report this week. Energy and the European natural gas market are in focus in commodities while we also try to gauge where we are in terms of timing an eventual recession with US yield-curve and consumer confidence survey indicators Commodity Weekly: Is the commodity rally over? | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Why have the Bank of England and the IMF been so wrong on the UK economy? (cityam.com) ...old style institutions that never adapted to the new world.. Spanish prime minister calls for early general election (cnbc.com) After Turkey election win, what problems does Erdogan face next? | Elections News | Al Jazeera Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇮🇹 #ITALY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 3.5% Y/Y (largest decline since Sep. 2020) - BBG *ITALY APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 6.5% M/M https://t.co/xbl07MnELP" / Twitter ''Another piece of encouraging news from Spain suggesting core inflation dynamics have peaked'' Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany, where high inflation has eaten away record wage gains. Nominal wages rose by 5.6% YoY in Q1, the highest measured nominal wage increase for a quarter since the series began in 2008. But CPI rose by 8.3% in Q1, so real wages printed at -2.3%. At least… https://t.co/INq12lBnHf" / Twitter Shop price inflation reaches record high, figures show | This Is Local London Bundesbank Warns Losses From Bond Purchases Will Wipe Out Buffers - WorldNewsEra This is from early march, but this conversation has come across our recent meetings with clients, thought it might be worth a read again Twitter quits EU’s voluntary disinformation pact | Cybernews Market for Swiss chalets cools down after Covid price boom - SWI swissinfo.ch Lack of snow a little of an issue for many 'lower' resorts, cost of water cannons ? cost of energy ?..2nd and 3rd home tax may well eventually go higher, and finally CHF too strong got many in Europe and around the world Swiss government supports selling tanks back to Germany - SWI swissinfo.ch not neutral anymore.. Jeremy Hunt comfortable with recession if it brings down inflation (telegraph.co.uk) great stuff, strewth IAEA resolves nuclear issues with Iran - Iranian Media | Reuters USDCNH - in perspective

So we have the SPX500 ceiling at 4200 that hel for 9months and the U.S debt ceiling Fitch puts United States’ AAA rating on negative watch, citing debt ceiling fight From 'science fiction' to reality: Paralyzed man walks again thanks to brain and spine implants,“It was quite science fiction at the very beginning but it became true today,” said Dr. Jocelyne Bloch, co-leader and a neurosurgeon at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland.... early days still, BUT amazing stuff !! FOMC : "Participants generally expressed uncertainty about how much more policy tightening may be appropriate. Many participants focused on the need to retain optionality after this meeting." >>> we moved from 10bp cut in July to a full hike priced in now within 2 weeks..>>> Fed terminal rate creeps higher to 5.25% as Fed minutes slightly hawkish MSCI emerging markets are also back to flat for the year - China reopening story pretty short-lived (+more about higher rates for longer?..) FT-Gold : “It’s hard to push back against an asset with a 5,000-year history of providing wealth,” UK set to win multi-billion pound battle with Spain for Jaguar Land Rover EV battery plant, finally some +ve news in UK RIP Tina Turner - simply the best! First private fully automated vault in Switzerland Germany suffered a winter (light..) recession , fresh data shows, with first-quarter output dropping 0.3% versus initial estimate of 0% Warren Buffett's shifting Asian portfolio . Geopolitics push 'Oracle of Omaha' to move away from China and invest in Japan BOJ's Ueda reaffirms to patiently continue with monetary easing...plus ca change.. Markets : NVDA up about 200bn$in market cap terms after hours, lifting the whole complex back, I know I know it 'often' doesn't mater these days.. but that's a P/E of 180 or so by now.. Everybody got excited about the break out in SPX, got sucked in, just to realize that the "fat and flat" narrative remains intact. The big range is intact, and for the short term, we are approaching the first supports around 4100.. SPX500 - the 'other ceiling' around 4200. HangSeng down 8% in last 8 trading days too, EMG equities and CSI300 giving up 2023 gains too >>> again, megacaps doing ok, but it isn't that pretty underneath EURUSD braking through key trend line support around 1.0760, KIWI got hammered, AUD following, USDJPY near 140 again, USDCHF finding it's mojo back above .90+, GOLD and other metals lower ALL about UST's with 2's back t 4.40% ahead of U.S claims today and PCE tomorrow, UST's leads USD higher and eventually equity markets come under pressure, momentum and therefore sentiment can shift quickly Fitch puts U.S. AAA rating on negative watch over debt ceiling (cnbc.com) The Fed - Monetary Policy: (federalreserve.gov) Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report Q1 2024 (cnbc.com) Companies are talking about 'recession' less. Economic data helps explain why. (yahoo.com) From 'science fiction' to reality: Paralyzed man walks again thanks to brain and spine implants (msn.com) this is phenomenal ! Paralysed man walks again thanks to 'digital bridge' that wirelessly reconnects brain and spinal cord | Science & Tech News | Sky News whaooo UK to win multi-bn pound battle with Spain for Jaguar battery plant (cityam.com) That's a big win - 9'000 jobs eventually The new gold boom: how long can it last? | Financial Times (ft.com) Warren Buffett's shifting Asian portfolio - Nikkei Asia "There's Poop Everywhere": San Francisco's Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It's Also Covered In Sh*t | ZeroHedge what a sad state of affairs !! Reuters on Twitter: "The raging wildfires in western Canada have wiped out more than two million acres of land in Alberta. Officials said Australia and New Zealand are set to send assistance to help tame the blaze https://t.co/AXP29U0bTu" / Twitter whaoo! Queen of Rock ‘n’ Roll Tina Turner dies aged 83 - SWI swissinfo.ch Yes, Prime Minister S02E04 - A Conflict Of Interest - video Dailymotion 1987 - could have been written 6months ago ! great stuff :-) Heim | Safebox24 AG Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on China's battered trusts and their attempts to clean up the surge in nonperforming assets and risky loans on their books. China's 68 trusts have RMB 22 billion of assets. https://t.co/CufpyjwXAC" / Twitter OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says Elon Musk was a mentor. But he doesn’t share Musk’s enthusiasm for Mars | Fortune Chinese premier holds talks with Russian counterpart - World - Chinadaily.com.cn Severn Trent dividend exceeds £260m amid rising anger over sewage pollution | Severn Trent | The Guardian jus say sorry , who cares,. move on.. EURUSD here, but as noted 2weeks ago '''eurusd lost momentum 1.10+', UST lead, USD follows, and eventually equity notice

Pasta prices have surged , prompting crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike, mamma mia! The French government published a decree Tuesday that banned domestic commercial airline flights for journeys possible in less than two-and-a-half hours by train, will it work? US Data Tuesday was mixed: Flash PMI data on services was a beat but manufacturing a miss (UK, Germany, much the same..) , US debt ceiling impasse: Negotiations extend as: As funds run short, Treasury asks agencies if payments can be made later . Senior Biden aides are rummaging through the nation’s books, looking for new ways to conserve cash while Washington battles over the debt ceiling “We can have a dramatically more prosperous future; but we have to manage risk to get there,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote ''At last! UK inflation falls below 10% for first time since August''.. It was 8.7% YoY in April, going in the right direction, BUT core higher...not great clearly!! >> June hike nailed on! and 'peak' rates up to 5.5% immediately.. Lithium developers... Brace yourself for the recover y. Geologist, James Cooper, offers his take on why developers could be entering a Goldilocks period as the lithium sector braces for a recovery The IMF has today joined a group of top economic institutions in DITCHING its call that the UK will suffer a tough recession this year and Top officials at the Bank of England today admitted they have undershot the strength of inflation , with governor Andrew Bailey confessing the central bank has some “very big” lessons to learn over how it sets interest rates -The US Secret Service said it had detained the driver of a rented box truck that crashed into security barriers near the White House, perhaps intentionally, but that there were no injuries or ongoing danger RBNZ hikes 25bps to 5.25% , as expected, 2 dissent and a pause discussed >> NZD down almost 2% Netflix password-sharing crackdown rolls out in the U.S. China PM Li Qiang meets with Russia's Mishustin in Beijin g. China and Russia sign MOU on service trade cooperation >>> overall CHINA data is much weaker than many economist expected few months back...!!, regional bankruptcies, copper, LVMH (luxury sector), bridges to nowhere (article yesterday)..all pretty bad signs on the economy there Markets : SPX500 'never' closed above 4200 , 'may' be running out of steam ahead of VERY key data over next24hours, with PCE tomorrow, rates been ratcheting up lately. DAX topped at ATH's levels too, slight loss of momentum in short-term ahead of KEY macro data, and CSI 300 Index drops by 1.1%, erases 2023 gains. Luxury stocks topped out and got sold fairly hard yesterday too USDollar will follow rates (2x UST up to 4.3%), CROSSJPY's had a good rally on +ve risk and higher global yields, all about macro U.S data and PCE GOLD held where it should have for the bulls - $1950, Copper down again U.S debt ceiling drama continues, beginning to think they kick the can down the road to after the summer.. Copper price slides as global demand drops sharply. LME stockpiles build up rapidly as European industrial activity cools U.S. Treasury asks about later payments as debt ceiling deadline nears - The Washington Post Monetary Policy Statement May 2023 - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua (rbnz.govt.nz) Copper price slides as global demand drops sharply | Financial Times (ft.com) Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips (msn.com) Netflix password sharing crackdown starts in U.S. (cnbc.com) Ukraine war: US distances itself from Belgorod incursion into Russia - BBC News Los going on over there - hard to know exactly what's what..! A Poor Province in China Splurged on Bridges and Roads. Now It’s Facing a Debt Reckoning. - WSJ just fabUlous bridges! ithas ot be said , but.. >> Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/4 "Don’t look at Guizhou’s problem in isolation. Guizhou’s problem is also a national problem. Eventually, someone must pay for it. The question is who." This is the nub of the problem. https://t.co/k5LaY4kfje via @WSJ" / Twitter Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill admit they got it wrong on inflation (cityam.com) IMF ditches UK recession call, lifts GDP growth from bottom of G7 (cityam.com) Lithium developers... Brace yourself for the recovery - James Cooper | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com) Altman and Pichai now want governments to regulate A.I. | Fortune Malaysian authorities raid Swatch stores over ‘Pride Collection’ - SWI swissinfo.ch “We strongly contest that our collection of watches using rainbow colours and having a message of peace and love could be harmful for whomever,” Swatch Group CEO Nick Hayek Jr. said in a statement Let's smash the political silence on Brexit - a Politics crowdfunding project in London by European Movement UK (crowdfunder.co.uk) Support for Brexit has plummeted. Only 32% of the public believe we were right to leave Europe*. So why are politicians so unwilling to admit there's a problem - let alone fix it? .... will 'a' party go for it at the next GE next year?.. Pasta prices have surged, prompting crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike (cnbc.com) Driver detained as truck crashes near White House; Nazi flag found | Reuters Check out the flag on the floor.. Why Forcing Employees to Return to the Office Is Insane (businessinsider.com) Any thoughts on this ? Mostly symbolic or will it be enforced ? France banned short domestic flights to get tough on emissions (qz.com) LVHM got way overdone, china peaked again, 'longs beware' - luxury sector !

FED talks and expectations between a hike, a pause or cuts, now the chatters are for a 'skipp - skipping ! , telegraphed by few Fed officials >>> wouldn't be too surprised if the ''debt ceiling can'' gets kicked into September too Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum . Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites. All eyes on impact of 4% pay rise at major firms, the largest in 30 years CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event >>> a reminder that CDS 'trading or hedging' is just a tool ahead of the event, rarely do they payout.. US Bank Deposits are down 5.6% from their peak last year, the largest drawdown we've seen since 1975 >>> no wonder if banks don't want to pay any or hardly any interest on deposits, funds will (continue to) go to MM Funds and UST's.. FT-“Germany recorded its highest level of foreign direct investment last year with a surge in UK companies setting up operations to retain a post-Brexit presence in the EU” Brexit has been a boom for other European countries! Russia : Putin will never stop his invasion of UKR >>> the only way it ever stops is if/when other Russian soldiers ''to their own things'' internally and through massive defections etc, Russian propaganda narratives are becoming increasingly gloomier and more anxious as the "special military operation" continues, Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia "Our call for a more meaningful decline in the S&P 500 in 1Q/1H23 has been wrong," Mike Wilson (a big bear giving up) Pretty extraordinary PMI numbers from Germany this morning . Manuf at 42.9 is in a sharp contraction Services at 57.8 are seeing quite a surge >>> so UK like ( ECB can spin it as they wish going forward and skip!?) French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24% Markets : Commodities, copper, steel all a little softer again, precious metals struggling too, XAUUSD pretty key support around $1950 area - chart below UST' doing some pretty strong 'tightening' work (no longer 75bps of cuts priced in by end of 2023!).., 2's back to 4.36!..higher for longer, skip (why not), t he risk was always IMHO that a pause, a skip, does NOT mean cuts are coming as quickly as already priced by markets , thus the 'regional bank' risk will probably come back one way or another SPX500 4200, NQ, megacaps, small breath, RTY is all known, DAX near ATH's too Fed Officials Consider Skipping a Hike in June — But Don’t Call It a Pause - Bloomberg It's not a pause, it's a SKIP Ian Harnett on Twitter: "Sorry that we have to repeat this message - but the key reason to remain cautious is that the CREDIT CRUNCH FOR CORPORATES IS ONLY JUST STARTING… https://t.co/Az3XnJb72C" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany, which is facing difficult demographic times. Old-age dependency ratio has already risen well >30: fewer than 3 people of working age face one person of retirement age. Only in Japan, Italy & Finland is the population even more over-aged. (HT @Tiefseher) https://t.co/WHt379fcEP" / Twitter Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: "An organization calling themselves "Freedom of Russia Legion" published a video on their Telegram channel. "The time has come to put an end to the Kremlin dictatorship! Be brave and have no fear because we are coming home! Russia will be free!" They said after criticizing… https://t.co/9a7p31em82" / Twitter LOTS of those type of comments/action on Twitter these days , looks like internals are rising.. >>> The Post-Putin World Will Be So Much Better than This One – Real Context News (RCN) Russia-Ukraine war live: Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia (theguardian.com) etc etc.. Peace, food and fertilizer: African leaders' challenge heading to talks with Moscow, Kyiv | AP News S&P Global PMI™ on Twitter: "Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite #PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum. @jibunbank Read more: https://t.co/UqauL0swwF https://t.co/m96DBJwXhn" / Twitter and yet ...they still doing QE, YCC etc Neue Nord-Stream-Theorie: Deutsche Ermittler haben wohl entscheidende neue Spuren entdeckt. Sie führen in die Ukraine (weltwoche.ch) That's another twist to the plot of who bombed the Nord-Stream pipeline.. The London Economic on Twitter: "Yvette Cooper struck quite the nerve with Suella Braverman 👀⏬ https://t.co/PXZikcTLAh" / Twitter Suella Braverman did ‘nothing untoward’ by allegedly seeking private speeding course | The Independent >>> The issue is not her having a 1on1 course. It’s asking Civil Servants to arrange for it. It was a private matter, nothing to do with her public duties CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event - Bloomberg Also called in some corners ''financial manipulation' Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites - Nikkei Asia Why car parks are the hottest space in solar power - BBC News Fact Check: Was There an Explosion at the Pentagon? (newsweek.com) MAD AI !.. Here's Why the US Doesn't Have to Pay Off Its $31 Trillion Debt: Krugman (businessinsider.com) Can I also not repay my debt ? French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24% | BT | The Guardian $1950 XAUUSD is the level +