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Powell : all about payrolls and CPI, watch those two key data set. Inflation is beginning to ease, but it will be a long process, all about data. Mr Market will continue to price probabilities on a soft, hard or no landing.. Powell, paraphrased: Despite many people believing (or hoping) the Fed's recent inflation projections were too high because inflation would come down faster, the Fed didn't see it that way and, given last week's job report, still doesn't Fed's Kashkari: - I wish we saw more evidence underlying inflation was trending down more. I am not lowering my rate path, it is still around 5.4% The earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria is the deadliest global seismic event in more than a decade as the official death toll surpasses 9,000. Turkey's stock exchange suspends trading for the first time in 24 years BP shares up nearly 7% yesterday >>> that "Back into Petroleum" is exactly what shareholders wanted then "With fourth-quarter results from more than half of the S&P 500 companies already in, earnings per share have fallen 2.8% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s less than the 3.3% drop expected before earnings season began." /BBG Announced Stock buybacks more than tripled for January at $132B - a record - 15% higher than last January Fitch revises up China's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5%., joining other US invest houses in shifting growth forecasts higher #reopening Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands announced Tuesday that they plan to provide Ukraine with at least 100 refurbished Leopard 1 battle tanks in the coming months , a pledge that comes as Kyiv anticipates a new Russian offensive around the anniversary of its invasion Maersk , a global barometer for trade, posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead India has raised interest-rates by 0.25% to 6.5% Markets : SPX500 trying to push though 4150 for 4300 by summer ) pain trade still higher ? see argument put below.. .Europe continues to hold firm(er), Asia working out the China reopening situation still, overall it's full steam ahead USdollar had a brief rally for 30mins during Powell's presser, it is hard to rally beyond what's priced in already, unless market goes and price Terminal rate well above 5%..AUD right back neat 0.7000 levels after this week's hike, risk currencies, EMG (not all) overall in focus. USDJPY didn't manage to hold on to Sunday night's highs around 132.50, resistance still 131-132.50JPY area. BoJ nominees next week though! GBPCHF - it it's going to hold its from around here - chart below Crude rallies a little GOLD trying to recover from Friday's NFP sell-off - following rates/usd India's central bank raises interest rates and hints at possible further increases (thenationalnews.com) Is the pain trade still higher? JPM's cash trader Matt Reiner sums up trading sentiment: "...it feels like investors are “waiting for a pull back to buy” rather than “waiting on a rally to sell” and I think the logic is simple. Investors still are NOT long enough to feel comfortable laying off risk. In fact, the data continues to show investors are still markedly underperforming, and the gaps are widening – The two thematic baskets I’m watching closely are Momentum Short and PURE Beta Winners since they’ve been market leaders YTD and quality tends to follow – The VIX remains comfortably below 20 – The TICK has spent nearly all morning in the RED – We remain thoroughly elevated above the SPX Golden Cross – It feels like there are a lot of mixed signals out there, but the pain trade remains up." Stock Market: Powell’s speech was hawkish. Investors' mood was bullish (cnbc.com) NO not really, certainly not relative to what was priced in all this hawkish & dovish stuff depends on what anyone wants to twist a few words to suit their own narrative, its all about pricing State of the Union 2023: Joe Biden calls for unity as he urges Congress to finish economic fightback (msn.com) Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Look beyond what those models are suppose to tell investors... Let's be clear the FED sets policy for the next couple of meetings, always has, always will, particularly in fast moving economies, no matter what people want to hear on daily or weekly basis. Mr Market sets a policy, a view, a pricing, a curve for the next 18months.. Yahoo Finance on Twitter: "Pres. Biden on the Corporate Minimum Tax and the Billionaire's Minimum Tax proposal: https://t.co/PGkiMuYLWA" / Twitter Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "Global Central Bank Update: -Australia hiked rates for the 9th time, 25 bps increase to 3.35%. https://t.co/CBsEXwW5FY" / Twitter 'God is neither male nor female': Church of England is considering gender-neutral terms | UK News | Sky News PM Modi should nationalise all assets of Adani Group and then auction it for sale: Subramanian Swamy | India News - Times of India (indiatimes.com) Gautam Adani’s woes were in banks' plain sight | Reuters >>> Barclays, StanChart, Deutsche Bank and others helped Gautam Adani supersize his empire. A $110 bln share rout exposes their willingness to take a narrow view of risk on lucrative relationships. The questions will get louder Germany, Denmark, Netherlands pledge Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine as it braces for new Russian assault to mark war's one-year anniversary - MarketWatch What a terrible terrible earthquake Turkey earthquake: Rescuers gave little boy water from a bottle cap - BBC News Turkey and Syria earthquake: death toll rises to 8,700 as hundreds of thousands left homeless by disaster – latest updates (theguardian.com) Maersk, a global barometer for trade, posts record 2022 earnings but warns of a tough year ahead (msn.com) NICE - welcome news to start the day! Executive Board of Hapag-Lloyd AG resolves to propose a dividend distribution of EUR 63 per share to the Annual General Meeting 2023 (yahoo.com) Va. poised to ban foreign adversaries from buying farmland (thehill.com) Good catch ! New Zealand police find 3.2 tonnes of cocaine floating in the Pacific Ocean | Evening Standard GBPCHF - if it is going to hold it will ahve to be from around here!

"After the shockingly strong NFP report, our economists added a 25bp hike to their expectations and moved the expected terminal rate to 5.0-5.25%" --JPM, same at MS : Friday's jobs report caused Ellen Zentner's team at Morgan Stanley "to change our baseline forecast from a pause to a 25bp hike at the March FOMC." It also boosted the chance of bigger hikes ahead "& the possibility that following a Fed pause the next move will be up, not down" Bostic says strong jobs report may spur Fed to raise interest rates even higher RBA raises interest rates as expected, says more hikes in store, P hilippine annual inflation blew past expectations in January to reach a fresh 14-year high on surging food prices, raising the chance of the central bank delivering a larger interest rate hike to tame prices when it meets this month & Japan reports biggest jump in nominal wages in more than a quarter century! will they really keep on with YCC, BoJ ? >> sticky inflation in Asia too >>> Japan's govt to present nominees for next #BOJ governor and two deputy governors to parliament next week Russia sold 3.63 tons of GOLD from wealth fund in January Switzerland hasn't had landfills since 2000 50% of their municipal waste is recycled, and 50% is incinerated to produce electricity The world’s biggest miners spent years calling for consolidation in a fragmented industry. Newmont’s $17 billion Newcrest Mining offer suggests it’s finally starting to happen on a significant scale The Rothschilds look to take their French investment bank private in a $4 billion deal just a few months after a family head died Chinese households' bank deposits surged by ¥18 tln last year , ¥8 tln more than 2021 and about ¥36K per family. Money was saved from less consumption, fewer home purchases, and less financial investments/Thread Markets : Macro Data remains volatile , China fast reopening, U.S recession, no recession, soft, hard, no landing, Russia/UKR impact, inflation remains sticky across world Equity markets have had a massive rally last 4months, further repricing of rates might well tip 'duration' again sooner or later USD mixed after Friday outside day, AUD a little higher on RBA, USDJPY a little softer (all about BoJ nominees next week), GBP remains under pressure UST 2y yields up about 35-40bps in 2 trading days post NFP and ISM - fierce repricing Plenty of ECB speakers today and Powell later on Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023 - The models are broken | Saxo Group (home.saxo) well worth going through it, great insight from Steen at Saxo >> Summary: Models are used everywhere in the financial world. But what do you do when the models you use don't work anymore? That's what this Quarterly Outlook is all about RBA raises interest rates as expected, says more hikes in store By Investing.com Bostic says strong jobs report may spur Fed to raise interest rates even higher (msn.com) Japan's December real wages post first rise in 9 months on 26-year-high nominal growth - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Philippine Inflation Beats Expectations, Lifts Chance Of Bigger Rate Hike (ibtimes.com) "Forward EPS growth has just gone negative. This has only previously happened 4 times over the past 23 yrs. In each prior instance (2001, '08, '15, '20), equities have faced significant price downside associated w/the shift from positive to negative earnings growth:" MS's Wilson Cyclicals riskier than growth stocks: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson (cnbc.com) Russia Racks Up $25 Billion Budget Gap as Oil Export Price Cap Hits Hard - Bloomberg How Russia Is Surviving the Tightening Grip on Its Oil Revenue - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Gemini to contribute $100 million to Genesis bankruptcy recovery plan (cnbc.com) The Rothschilds look to take their French investment bank private in a $4 billion deal just a few months after a family head died (yahoo.com) Gene Ma on Twitter: "Chinese households' bank deposits surged by ¥18 tln last year, ¥8 tln more than 2021 and about ¥36K per family. Money was saved from less consumption, fewer home purchases, and less financial investments. https://t.co/pZRFQVQsg6" / Twitter Javier Blas on Twitter: "The thing with oil and gas is that they make a lot of money. Even BP CEO Bernard Looney has realized. And hence, quite a turn-around in strategy. $BP puts some fine words about renewables. But this is a company that has gone from "Beyond Petroleum" to "Back to Petroleum". https://t.co/QV02PhQ2Wo" / Twitter and BP profits more than double as energy prices surge - live updates (telegraph.co.uk) Absolute disaster in Turkey's deadly 7.8 magnitude earthquake was so strong that its energy could power New York City for more than 4 days, seismologist says (yahoo.com) India's PM Modi Comes Under India Opposition Fire Over Adani Links - Bloomberg have a great day TeamPVM

Mr Market came closer to FED view, after very firm ISM and payrolls on Friday, namely that the very strong employment picture will keep economy and inflation firm for longer...looked like a turn on the $$ on Friday JPY - Japan sounds out BOJ deputy Amamiya for central bank governor. Final discussion underway for nomination of Kuroda's successor, he is someone who believes strongly in YCC, Amamiya is the architect of most of the BOJ’s policies under Kuroda (articles and news not all that clear btw, stay tuned)>>> lifted USDJPY further over week-end, this after very strong U.S job data and ISM on Friday (no recession...), USD, GOLD, all corrected pretty sharply, risk of even changing recent trend altogether, NFP increased the possibility of a soft-landing scenario where the economy avoids a severe recession while inflation/wage growth should continue to moderate (higher for longer..) "Goldman Sachs reports that Thursday saw the single heaviest day of short-covering activity by hedge-fund clients in a decade.", FOMO still alive last week! The more than $110bn wipeout of billionaire Gautam Adani’s companies follows other spectacular stock collapses set off by short sellers, like Enron and Wirecard, Bloomberg reports The autumn bull was about chasing Dow stuff while NASDAQ did nothing . The 2023 bull is all about chasing those old laggards, while the Dow is doing nothing. This creates more and more P/L pain as big capital isn't capturing these shifts quickly enough... In the context of all the debate, and different views, on the state of the US economy... ...it is remarkable how stable rate pricing by end-2023 has been. (just suck in 4.50-5.00% range for months now) / Thread Spy balloon fallout blows US-China diplomacy further off course. Beijing is likely to be just starting a long howl at Washington for downing with fighter jets what China says was a research ‘airship’ Hackers Target Thousands of Computers; Italy Calls Meeting Renault and Nissan sign a deal aimed at easing longstanding tensions between the two companies Competition to make raw materials for EV batteries is taking a potentially dangerous turn amid softening markets for critical commodities such as lithium and nickel Markets : VIX and SPX higher >>> so players buying underlying but buying protection too The S&P GSCI index, one of the most widely used & comprehensive commodity price indices, is back down to where it was in early December before all the China reopening chatter started... EURUSD , below 21dma around 1.0830 , previously mentioned ; key medium-term support & trend line 1.0750 (chart), EURO net longs futures positions from AM's and leverage names is huge (pls ask for more charts if you wish to) USDJPY - up and away - if you can handle (med to long-term position) 128JPY, stay long USDJPY now, add 135+ (chart) 2y UST yields jumped 25bps on Friday, ''repricing higher for longer'' - for duration, the end of 2023 and 2024 matters most Japan sounds out BOJ deputy Amamiya for central bank governor - Nikkei Asia China’s Weather Service Head Relieved of Duty Amid Tensions (thedailybeast.com) US non-farm payrolls jump by 517,000 in January - Sharecast.com Mass layoffs at U.S. tech giants help startups secure IT talent - Nikkei Asia (9) New Hampshire GOP governor calls Biden's balloon strategy 'too little too late' (cnn.com) RENAULT GROUP: Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance open a new chapter for their partnership (yahoo.com) EV battery material suppliers brace for gluts as competition heats up - Nikkei Asia Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰🇺🇸🇺🇦 on Twitter: "In the context of all the debate, and different views, on the state of the US economy... ...it is remarkable how stable rate pricing by end-2023 has been. (just suck in 4.50-5.00% range for months now) https://t.co/Ag9MbBmBKL" / Twitter Ukrainian refugees take canton to court over low benefits - SWI swissinfo.ch Iran supreme leader issues conditional 'amnesty' for protesters (msn.com) Thatcherites join rebellion against Rishi Sunak’s promise to slash EU red tape (telegraph.co.uk) Turkey earthquake: More than 500 dead as 7.8-magnitude earthquake hits country's south | CNN Adani rout deepens despite Indian efforts to defend conglomerate (cnbc.com) Cyber Security Hacking News: Italy Says Systems Attacked - Bloomberg EURUSD 1.0750 USDJPY - up and away - if you can handle (med to long-term position) 128JPY, stay long USDJPY now, add 135+

Powell : "it would be... very premature to declare victory" on inflation but "the disinflationary process has started" and "It’s very difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and finding out in six or 12 months that we actually were close but didn’t get the job done. If we feel like we’ve gone too far . . . inflation is coming down faster than we expect, then we have tools that would work on that" >> so he kind of claimed victory! mentioning disinflation a few times too, he aligned words and actions..pretty straight talking, market got caught with its universal hawkish expectations (and thus short rates and risk), all flipped during presser with Pow's constructive chatter Powell put the breaks on, so the only question is whether Christine 'says' a similar message after the 50bps hike, same for BoE where most think 50bps, though a 25bps hike IMHO does not look too far fetched.. (probably too early for any shift there at mom from ECB, maybe within 2months though..) The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates again and pencil in more hikes for the next few months, with the only open question being how big these will be U.S. Jan. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: 106K, [Est. 178K, Prev. 235K, weaker, came out ahead of FOMC yesterday and set the tone... Germans Buy record amount of Gold! Central Bank buying 2nd highest level in history Adani stock losses hit $100bn after company calls off share sale, this is going to cost a few banks holding collateral in the group...Citigroup’s wealth arm stops accepting Adani securities as collateral for margin loans, joining Credit Suisse in stepping up scrutiny of the group... Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is making this the ‘year of efficiency’ Hong Kong will give away 50,0000 free airline tickets to tourists around the world, welcoming them to travel to Hong Kong, chief executive of the HKSAR John Lee announced on Thursday Goldman Sachs reiterates its forecast for Brent to hit $105 per barrel by the fourth quarter, saying oil will benefit as colder weather spurs demand BoJ Deputy Gov Wakatabe: need to be cautious about another YCC Band Widening Markets : Mr Market got caught short UST's and risk going into FOMC, Powell straight talking, not more hawkish than many were looking for, given positioning, and here we are - early days - META helped last night (up nearly 20%..), AMZN and APPL next amongst others >>> let' see now IF following days validate the market reaction from the event yesterday (and probably today too) from a macro point of view..broadly speaking nothing from Powell yesterday that changes the mood since #peakinflation #peakusd #peak worries of last Sep/Oct..and momentum from the start in Jan >>> softer USD, risk does ok, GOLD higher, duration joins in on lower yields USD weaker, GOLD higher, Copper softer (weaker growth signals ahead) Equity markets rallied, DOW flat, with 10's rally in 10y bonds, duration got a boost, QQQ shorts mainly squeezed, new longs established on break-up. QQQ off to the races/break up on techs, Mr Market was short as rates got smashed in Jan.. . no wonder reaction, irrelevant of anyone's view on the day.. #duration Crude near lows - worth building a few friendly longs from here GOLD could well be on its way to retest March 2022 highs NatGas prices are all the way back down to where we were in early 2021, US NatGas down 40pct or so in Jan ! ECB to raise rates again — but the real focus is on what Lagarde says – POLITICO Powell didn't sound as preoccupied as some commentators have been about recent easing as measured by certain FCI "Financial conditions didn’t really change much from the December meeting to now. They mostly went sideways or up and down, but came out in roughly the same place." Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Daleep Singh: “Markets rallied fiercely despite the hawkish message because investors know the Fed isn’t omniscient nor is it dogmatic. Economic conditions are in charge when the Fed is in data-dependent mode.” https://t.co/vfjPjO1Diu" / Twitter >>> Arguably, his big opportunity came early in the Q&A, when he was asked if he was worried that financial conditions had eased. This appeared to be a straightforward opportunity for him to say “yes” and browbeat the market, if he wanted to, he didn't Jeffrey Gundlach on Twitter: "Here is the yield change in the UST market over the past 3 months: Two Year: Down 54 bp Five Year: Down 83 bp Ten Year: Down. 71 bp Thirty Year: Down 59 bp Fed Funds: Up 75 bp Message seems clear." / Twitter BOJ's Wakatabe: No change to ultra-easy policy commitment (msn.com) Economists detect dovish undertones from ‘more optimistic’ Jay Powell | Financial Times (ft.com) Germans Buy Record Amount Of Gold! Central Bank Buying 2nd Highest Level In History! | King World News George Monbiot RIPS APART Rishi Sunak's First 100 Days (doubledown.news) Mark Zuckerberg says Meta is making this the ‘year of efficiency’ (msn.com) Indian Tycoon Gautam Adani Pulls $2.5B Share Sale in Flagship Company (businessinsider.com) Strikes, seatbelts and sleaze: Rishi Sunak’s first 100 days as PM – podcast | News | The Guardian Mattia Nelles on Twitter: "The brilliant @berdynskykh_k summarizes the mood of town today: Can we hold the EU-Ukraine summit every week?) Because this parade of searches is a pleasure to watch.) What is she referring to? A small summary of today, a day of plenty of searches, arrests and dismissals🤡 /1" / Twitter CNBC International on Twitter: "Oil market looks like it is in 'pretty good shape,' says Paul Sankey of Sankey Research. https://t.co/WeaxhG6Stg" / Twitter have a great end to the week Steph & Team

Tesla EVs, even mildly damaged, are being written off by Insurance Companies - Insurers are increasingly concluding that a broken Tesla is too expensive to fix ECB: Rising rates are making a substantial dent on loan demand -Loan demand to drop further in Q1 with "strong net decline" seen for loans to households - BLS There was to be a historical energy crisis in 2022, then we had this : Eurozone’s Economy Outpaced China and U.S. in 2022 ...The currency-area grew at a faster clip than its global peers, reversing traditional positions/WSJ Riksbank: High inflation and rising rates are testing the resilience of the Swedish financial system. English page not visible Norway's sovereign wealth fund lost $164bn last year, citing volatile markets ECB balance-sheet size lower again/deleveraging continues , lower by another €65bn in the past week to €7,900bn...Total assets stills equate to 60% of Eurozone GDP UK and EU set for Northern Ireland Brexit deal . Breakthroughs on customs and court disputes Adani rout erases $79bn in mkt cap from all 10 stocks tied to the billionaire’s Adani Group – a third of group value as completion of a key share sale failed to lessen concerns about Hindenburg Research’s fraud allegations EZ inflation slowed to 8.5% YoY in Jan , more than expected, suggesting a more heated debate to come at ECB meeting over how much more interest rates must still rise as Core CPI - a gauge of underlying inflation that excludes volatile items - held at ATH of 5.2%. (BBG) Markets : MOVE index (bond vols), remember peak worries, peak inflation in early October ? essentially the index has moved from 160 to 100 - see chart below - stunning sell-off, financials conditions improved, USD sold-off and risk rallied, duration recovered hard with inversion of the curve...all the same trade USDollar stays soft, not softer, all about Powell, if as expected, Mr Market will quickly try to push lower again BONDS..various part of the curve at play..which will influence duration/QQQ one way or another Equity markets, well within recent defined ranges, market wants to test higher on a 'soft' Powell >>> SPX500 3850 vs 4150 will cover it for now Crude slightly softer, recent inflation data, average earnings and so on a little softer, but beware it is 'softer than excessively high levels in last 6months, it is not exactly much lower..yet anyway, and employment remains strong >>> so a bit of patience IMHO might be required for now, hence Powell likely to avoid to be too dovish, if at all, lets see how goes PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) few nice charts there, as per usual Macro Insights: Central banks on the agenda – Fed, ECB and Bank of England | Saxo Markets SG (home.saxo) Jerome Powell likely to stress Fed's inflation fight far from over - Washington Times MOVE Index Charts and Quotes — TradingView hell of a move last 3months, after 'peak worries' in October.. though it could continue relative to 2021 levels... decision time soon! Tesla EVs, Even Mildly Damaged, Being Written Off by Insurers (caranddriver.com) Meccanica on Twitter: "I just want to know who's responsible for designing CCS. What engineer developed this and thought this was a good idea? 💡 https://t.co/hYhbavUXbx" / Twitter Eurozone mortgage demand falls at record pace | Financial Times (ft.com) No surprise, like everywhere else.. Jacob Silverman on Twitter: "Bankrupt Alameda demands repayment of $445.8 million in loans made to bankrupt Voyager, which previously loaned to Alameda, but was repaid after going bankrupt. Everyone owes everyone and no one has real money. https://t.co/sWSy58B4dL https://t.co/91cxsql2pr" / Twitter UK and EU 'reach customs deal that could end Northern Ireland logjam' - Belfast Live and... Strikes UK today: Train drivers, royal mail and teachers join biggest walkout in decade | The Independent Heroin is now legal in Vancouver – and addicts are celebrating (telegraph.co.uk) really..?

Risk reduction ahead of Central Banks show + full steam ahead with earnings season Goldman Sachs raise China equity index target, 'reopening' evolves into 'growth recovery' Wilson thinks we will soon have the final leg of this bear market . "...Bottom line, we double down on our thesis, which is now out of consensus again, based on sentiment and positioning. With month end this week taking some pressure off active managers to keep chasing this rally that is based on a narrative that started in October from much lower valuations, it's time to fade it...A pause is very different this time given the fact the Fed is still doing QT and remains unlikely to cut rates in the absence of a recession. In short, we think the Fed meeting this week will be a reminder of that fact." (Wilson, Morgan Stanley) Adani Rou t Hits $68 Billion as Fight With Hindenburg Intensifies. Most Adani stocks declined again on Monday, flagship gained. The conglomerate’s dollar bonds also extended a plunge Central banks bought the most gold since 1967 last year, WGC says German retail sales collapsed by 5.3% MoM in Dec , French household consumption declined 0.9% QoQ in Q4, Spanish household consumption declined 1.8% QoQ in Q4. ...the European consumers succumbed to the income shock !!..Swiss Retail Sales Real (Y/Y) Dec: -2.8% (prevR -1.4%) Macron's pension-reform plan is tested by more and intensifying protests, but the president is digging in The Great British Walkout: Rishi Sunak braces for biggest UK strike in 12 years. Under-fire UK prime minister rejects talk of national ‘decline’ as 500,000 public sector workers prepare to walk out. And to make things worst (ok it's the IMF..), UK will be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, warns IMF Traders are turning more bullish on the pound on hopes the UK and the EU will strike a post-Brexit trading deal for Northern Ireland, according to Nomura/BBG Markets : NASDAQ topped at 200dma, traded just above it/sucked a few people in, and sold-off relatively hard yesterday. Biggest earnings week in the season , today we are expecting Exxon, UPS, General Motors Co and Caterpillar before market open and Pfizer, McDonalds, Spotify, AMD, Snap, Amgen, EA, after the close. "Tape feels fragile at the moment with S&P top of book liquidity touching $3mm intraday today (ytd low)." - GS FICC USDollar risk higher in short-term on a more hawkish Powell and past month-end flows / positioning too short $. CTA's model showing large long positions in EURO vs almost anything (which has been perfect, on the back of hawkish ECB etc and weak usd momentum) UST yields, all about the 6-24months part of the curve, will Powell make the market rethink the cuts priced in after this summer ?, However, please note that Hedge funds have the biggest net short position on US treasuries ahead of the FED meeting/BBG IF ever there was a time, now is time to fade a few things , it's all the same trade though! short #NASDAQ go long a few USDollars (cover some shorts..) and #steepeners on but tricky along the curves, which part of the curve, You are not alone if you do, Kolanovic doubles down on the consensus bearish call, says "YTD rally may fade". Others calling for a drop are MS, GS, and BofA >>> IMHO, reduce positions a little going into this big big week/ and early February, and see what comes, have room to add on silly dips/don't chase from here.. . consensus pretty clear, everyone expects FED to do 25bps and sound hawkish Worth considering.. when looking for what has rallied hard in Jan 2023 : ARKK +25% ytd TSLA +50% ytd and the likes of BYND +30% , SPX500 up 5% Central banks bought the most gold since 1967 last year, WGC says | The Mighty 790 KFGO | KFGO IMF on Twitter: "🆕 The IMF projects global growth to fall from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023, and then rise to 3.1% in 2024. Inflation is peaking amid low growth. Read our analysis in the World Economic Outlook Update. https://t.co/4ifKc9qi4j #WEO https://t.co/5tdSaw0Q81" / Twitter https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/content/articles/equities/the-adani-saga--answers-to-some-of-the-key-questions-for-foreign-investors-30012023 This is like... whaoo.. Adani Enterprises had just a $3.5 billion market cap pre covid pandemic in 2019, it's now near $40 billion, and that's after the plunge in recent week Millions of families in leasehold homes set to get greater powers to buy them outright | Daily Mail Online it could be some sort of game change for many, that is fair to say UK faces 2023 recession, warns IMF, despite brightening world economy; France’s growth slows – business live (theguardian.com) Ukraine war: Joe Biden rules out sending F-16 fighter jets - BBC News UBS gets a boost from higher rates, but lower client activity brings down revenues (msn.com) Hong Kong to Ban CBD, Label It a 'Dangerous Drug' | Time France braces for fresh strikes, protests against Macron's pension reform (msn.com) The Great British Walkout: Rishi Sunak braces for biggest UK strike in 12 years – POLITICO Ford Cuts Prices, Boosts Production Of Mustang Mach-E (sfgate.com) Hunt’s tax raid means UK will be only major economy to shrink this year, says IMF (telegraph.co.uk) 24heures LAUSANNE | E-paper EURUSD sub 1.0750 will not be welcome by longs/CTA's etc - USDJPY would need 132JPY+ for a similar upset etc

Very busy week ahead : early Q4 GDP data, inflation and employment data in EZ, ahead of FOMC Wed (25bps nailed on), ECB (50bps on Thursday (and 50bps more to come) and finally BoE to hike 50bps (and call for a pause most likely, end of hikes near etc) Swiss KOF Leading Indicator Jan: 97.2 (est 93.4; prevR 91.5), Spain’s inflation unexpectedly edged up in January , breaking a string of five consecutive months of falls, due to higher gasoline prices as the government’s fuel subsidies were scaled back.. CPI rose 5.8% (4.7% expected!) . . in January on year by European Union-harmonized standards, that's set-up for EZ CPI later on this week The new 2023 FOMC voters are Harker, Kashkari and Logan , not as hawkish perhaps as the likes of Bullard and George who are going, but definitely not dovish bunch, risk from here is FED makes the market rethink those ''cuts already priced in doe 2023 n '24..''>>> markets have priced in a soft landing and soft Fed since late Sep/early Oct ( #peakusd #peakinflation #peakworries etc) >>> bonds rally, equity markets rally (duration, QQQ etc)..be careful out there, if FED and Co are more hawkish than many think presently UK Wage Inflation Points to Another Big Rate Hike This Week. Bank of England expected to raise key rate to 4% on Thursday Market racking up technical points, storyline turns from “Fed tightening into slowdown, S&P caught in downtrend” to “Fed almost done in a firm patch, index working to break trend.” This week will help tell if the shift is real With or without sanctions, China will try to become self sufficient in semiconductors. After all, it has been upfront about its pursuit of self sufficiency/dominance in all key technologies. The West can influence the speed at which China gets there, not its commitment / Greg Yip The balance sheet of the Bank of Japan is approaching 140% of GDP (from 110% early last year) Total German retail deposits rose to €2.71tn at end-2022, another all-time-high "Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds Rate exceeding the CPI” Stanley Druckenmiller Jerome Powell’s China problem is just beginning-China’s reopening threatens second global inflation wave that Fed won’t be able to contain without causing a recession Markets : NASDAQ taking on trendline and 200dma (we've rallied well over 10pct in last 3weeks..), SPX500 went through those resistance levels last week, beware timing (just before Fed and CB meetings - short covering mostly?) >>> S&P494 fwd P/E ? see below, you don't want to own the big boys in reality USD has remained soft, making only marginal new lows in last week or so, trend is lower, BUT beware Jan positioning turnaround in new month & CB meetings UST's same as above, let's take 10's, probably a floor around 3.40/3.50% area, steepeners will come back into fashion if FED reinforces the hawkish side Commods had a strong month on China reopening story, Crude WTI stead around $80 S&P500 trades at 17x forward P/E S&P494 trades at about 12x forward P/E We often discussed the APPL case months ago and spoke with many of you on the tél..... but this is excellent stuff again from Alf on Twitter: "The S&P 500 trades at 17x forward P/E. The S&P 494 trades at 13x forward P/E." / Twitter Wifey on Twitter: "BIG BOYS ARE NOT BUYING THIS GS prime brokerage data shows that the professional investor community is not ready to chase this rally ... this tactic served well in 2022 ... chart below of the GS PB L/S ratio vs rolling $SPX returns. https://t.co/ISOvZ3vUQL" / Twitter Jerome Powell’s China problem is just beginning – Asia Times Spain inflation unexpectedly accelerated in January on higher fuel prices - MarketWatch Investors bet the Fed doom loop they've been trapped in will end in the week ahead (cnbc.com) Michael J. Kramer on Twitter: "$SP500 - The Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets https://t.co/satl7aem8v" / Twitter Kantro on Twitter: "Soft landings 🟩 have only occurred in the wake of a Fed tightening cycle when inflation was muted. 1966, 1985, 1995, and 2019. Things could be different for other reasons; I’ll believe it when I see it. So far #HOPE is playing out in sequence. #macro #pivotwindow https://t.co/xfnEcHr6g3" / Twitter we all hope for a soft landing clearly Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good morning from #Germany, where Germans were able to save even more money despite high #inflation. Total retail deposits rose to €2.71tn at end-2022, another ATH. However, the increase of 2.5% in 2022 was far below inflation rate of 7.9% for 1st time since statistics began. https://t.co/pg63ScV1Le" / Twitter UK Bank Mortgage Interest Rates and Loan News - Bloomberg Four New Voters Joining the Fed's Policy Group (yahoo.com) Adani Group: How The World’s 3rd Richest Man Is Pulling The Largest Con In Corporate History – Hindenburg Research Adani Group says Hindenburg fraud claim 'calculated attack on India' - BBC News Harry Scoffin on Twitter: "Phenomenal intervention from @michaelgove in the Sunday Times today. The Conservatives could actually win the next general election if they follow through on leasehold abolishment and free 10 million households who live under this iniquitous system, a relic of serfdom. https://t.co/0TbFc46Hq8" / Twitter >>>> this could be a big winner for the tories.. this isn't though... James O'Brien on Twitter: "Not a single syllable of contrition or apology. Criticises a newspaper headline but doesn’t even mention the behaviour that got him sacked. Remarkable." / Twitter Greg Ip on Twitter: "With or without sanctions, China will try to become self sufficient in semiconductors. After all, it has been upfront about its pursuit of self sufficiency/dominance in all key technologies. The West can influence the speed at which China gets there, not its commitment." / Twitter have a super start to the week Team PVM

Tesla reported better-than expected profits in the latest quarter, even as it gave mixed signals on the outlook for growth in vehicle deliveries Former Fed economist John Roberts: What if inflation comes down faster than the Fed expects? (thread below) Japanese PM Kishida said this morning that he will create the environment for above inflation pay rises and the government will work closely with the BoJ to actively manage policy Half-term ski holidays in France are facing disruption after lift operators announced "unlimited" strikes in resorts next month over Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms Natural disasters caused $313 bln economic loss in 2022 - Aon Chevron announces $75 billion stock buyback, dividend boost ‘Outright negative’ on stocks: JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic braces for correction, hard landing Bank Of Canada At The Peak India’s Adani Group is exploring legal action against US investor Hindenburg Research after its report accused firms owned by Asia's richest man of “brazen” market manipulation and accounting fraud Markets : SPX500 'short gamma' making daily move a little worrying, but slowly working through resistance, grinding higher/momentum should take us towards 4150 area again. Markets holding up pretty overall, VIX lower, UST yields soft USD remains weak overall, hard to see why this should change in near future. Even CABLE testing big resistance levels around 1.2425 area, AUD up and away etc Commods broadly speaking firmer too-China reopens, Copper higher GOLD steady/higher still Adani Group Stocks Tumble on Hindenburg’s Short Call - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) Bank Of Canada At The Peak | Seeking Alpha Fear of BOJ Turning Hawkish Spurs 94% Jump in Shorter Bond Sales - Bloomberg Chevron announces $75 billion stock buyback, dividend boost (msn.com) Musk: Tesla price cuts boost sales despite weak economy - BBC News Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Former Fed economist John Roberts: What if inflation comes down faster than the Fed expects? He says it isn't his base case, but in this blog post, he works through how the Fed might respond if there's a very rapid disinflation this year https://t.co/0iZcEunsej" / Twitter Natural disasters caused $313 billion economic loss (rte.ie) ‘Two or three Met officers to appear in court each week’ as force bids to reform | Evening Standard Outright Negative: JPMorgan's Kolanovic sees correction, hard landing (cnbc.com) wasn't he all bullish last 18months.. At least 24 civil servants involved in complaints against Dominic Raab, say sources | Dominic Raab | The Guardian Nadhim Zahawi tax row: Rishi Sunak's integrity is taking a hit as he prolongs the pain over Tory party chairman | Politics News | Sky News Tesla's Aggressive Price Cuts Worked As Demand Is up (businessinsider.com) Tesla seeks rapid output boost as profit beats estimates – The Irish Times Schiff blasts Facebook for ending Trump’s suspension: ‘tragic decision’ | The Hill Copper

- Sticky inflation!.. Q4 2022 inflation data from Australia : higher. .headline and both of the core measures are all above expected. Headline 1.9% Q-q-Q vs expectations of 1.6% q/q. For the Y-o-Y it was 7.8% vs expectations of 7.5%, prior 7.3%. Swedish PPI (M/M) Dec: 2.1% (prev 2.0%), Y-o-Y Dec: 18.7% (prev 19.5%) and in Zew Zealand, CPI increased 7.2 percent in the 12 months to December 2022 >>> ''more must be done'' will be heard in financial markets.. - NYSE’s Tuesday trading glitch explained , hope no-one got hurt yesterday! suspect many of you missed it but it did happen -Redrow is first UK Housebuilder to announces Heat Pumps as standard - BoE's pension fund took a £1.5bn hit from derivatives -The UBS Evidence Lab data measure of job openings has been moving down steadily since Q2 of last year. The BLS measure of openings has lagged and may be overstating labor market tightness (chart-thread) -Morgan Stanley: Stocks in emerging markets are set to be this decade’s winners -Finland ‘re-thinking’ NATO bid without Sweden causes storm - Microsoft expects revenue dip as Azure cloud growth slows in December quarter and weaker guidance - U.S., Berlin expected to give tanks to Ukraine ; Russia preparing 'new wave of aggression,' Kyiv says - Lula Questions Advantages for Brazil of Independent Central Bank -Strike over pay at Berlin airport grounds all flights -operator, Italy is bracing for two days of disruptions as gas station operators across the country started a strike late Tuesday to protest against a new policy introduced by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government and so many of these kind of stories around..too many! Markets : SPX500 still in those same levels, MSFT guidance weak, and must be followed for sentiment across markets . Sentiment ca swerve pretty quickly, it's Jan after all and so many unknown and almost binary outcome on macro side in weeks / months ahead USD remains soft overall, but all within similar levels, apart from AUD breaking up overnight Bonds, in general, may start to notice unwelcome sticky inflation in Australia, Kiwiland and Sweden this morning, and this FED repricing ? NYSE's Tuesday trading glitch explained (cnbc.com) Lula Questions Advantages for Brazil of Independent Central Bank (yahoo.com) not a good idea.. Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Panzer: Deutschland macht Weg frei für Leopard-Lieferungen an Ukraine - Video - WELT Australia: Inflation rise means more rate hikes for the Reserve Bank of Australia | Snap | ING Think FxMacro on Twitter: "The UBS Evidence Lab data measure of job openings has been moving down steadily since Q2 of last year. The BLS measure of openings has lagged and may be overstating labor market tightness. https://t.co/VQ9zf1HBPX" / Twitter Bank of England pension fund took £1.5bn hit from derivatives | Business | The Times just couldn't make this up ! Microsoft expects revenue dip as Azure cloud growth slows in December quarter (msn.com) Redrow is first UK Housebuilder to announces Heat Pumps as Standard - PropertyWire Tesla plans $3.6bn Nevada expansion to make batteries, Semi truck - Nikkei Asia Japan 'seriously considering' upgrading ASEAN ties: envoy - Nikkei Asia First Tory MP publicly calls for Nadhim Zahawi to go - 'too many unanswered questions' over tax affairs | Politics News | Sky News why is he still there?.. Nadhim Zahawi - a brief history: “I have paid my taxes in full” “HMRC have not investigated me” “There was no settlement” “There were no offshore funds” “Stop asking questions or I’ll sue you!” “Oh, you mean THAT £27million, how careless of me” Amazon workers stage first-ever strike in the UK over pay, working conditions (cnbc.com) Brunt Ice Shelf: Giant iceberg breaks away from Antarctic ice shelf | World News | Sky News Wyoming lawmakers's bill seeks to ban all electric vehicles by 2035 | Financial Post crickey! Finland ‘re-thinking’ NATO bid without Sweden causes storm – EURACTIV.com OBR reportedly plans to revise growth forecasts and warns Jeremy Hunt to expect a bleaker economic future - great! Budget blow: Government forecasters 'over-estimated prospects for growth' (telegraph.co.uk) Classified documents found at Pence’s Indiana home | The Hill Oz up and away - might be worth looking at AUDcrosses actually

Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting, 25bps now nailed on, while ECB talks 50bps.. BoA : ''Trading the Twilight Zone: we are in the trickiest part of the investment cycle: tightening ending but easing far from beginning, inflation over but recession not yet begun, China reopen vs US recession… little wonder Wall St narratives changing quicker than a TikTok video; investor conviction remains in a huge bear market; and tail risks to consensus high'' MS : “While consensus shifts to a less negative stance amid a weaker dollar, China's reopening and the more stable (but lagging) hard data, we focus on the leading macro and earnings indicators which are now overwhelmingly weak—a dynamic the market is not priced for” Ken Griffin's Citadel raked in $16 billion in 2022 , marking the best year for any hedge fund in history Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest AUD : NAB’s monthly business survey shows that the economy is beginning to slow and that inflation passed its peak as of December, reinforcing market expectations that a peak in interest rates is near. Business conditions fell 8 points to be up 12 index points, with trading, profitability and employment down. Confidence rose 3 points to be down 1 index points, but remained well below average Britain and the European Union are unlikely to fundamentally change their underlying Brexit settlement, making sector-specific deals for financial services, fisheries and energy necessary to prevent more disruption Peru: Anti-government protests will continue, says interior minister China Slams US on Debt Limit and Accuses Washington of Sabotage . US needs to ‘cope with its own debt problem,’ embassy says..Sharp words contrast with recent easing in China-US tensions/BBG Former top FBI official charged with violating Russia sanctions Markets : SPX500... till it closes 'well' above this 4010-4050 range of resistance/trendlines ..But it feels squeezy for choice-still (softer usd, BoJ on hold, FED moving to 25bps etc and a martket that looks badly positioned - 4300 would really be hurting the current '''negatively positioned market....'' >>> remember EVERYONE pretty much talked recession as we started 2023, with weak equity markets in H1 and a recovery in H2 - the reverse might well be true! The first 3 weeks of the year are often driven by pure sentiment and short-term flows, beware of change of heart, this IS a market that can change its mind just like that EURCHF - chart below - with higher ECB rates, wouldn't be shocked to see cross at 1.05 over next few months (GBPCHF similar ish) Crude steady/higher, copper higher (Peru shutting down risk), metals higher #Gold grinding higher still - hard to see why it should at mom, after the huge CB buyers late last year, the market is now having to do some work.. USDollar mixed to slightly softer still, same old, #XAUUSD notably grinding higher Debt default would cost 6 million jobs, push jobless rate to 7 percent: analysis | The Hill it should not, and it very most likely will not happen, but there you go - it's politics Hedge Fund That Got China Right Sees Risk in US Markets (yahoo.com) Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting (msn.com) Citadel Posts Biggest Hedge-Fund Profit in History With $16 Billion in 2022 (businessinsider.com) Peter Thiel Says British Affection for NHS Is Stockholm Syndrome (msn.com) He is not wrong ! Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest - SWI swissinfo.ch IW-Studie: Ukraine-Krieg kostet deutsche Wirtschaft 175 Milliarden Euro - WELT Kaivan Shroff on Twitter: "Just to be clear, when the New York Times reported that the FBI saw “no link between Trump and Russia” — a week before the 2016 election — the FBI agent who was just arrested over ties to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska was heading up the investigation. Just an absolute scandal. https://t.co/0SQ6zr1zMV" / Twitter Former top FBI official charged with violating Russia sanctions | The Hill Britain and EU unlikely to change Brexit deal much, despite issues - World - Business Recorder (brecorder.com) January 6 rioter who posed with feet on Nancy Pelosi’s desk guilty of all charges | Evening Standard Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/15 Since the 1960s few arguments in international finance have been as exciting as "the coming demise of the dollar", but these arguments seem always to founder on the same set of mistakes. https://t.co/fsI0MkqE42" / Twitter That's not to say the USDollar can't continue to weaken in short-term, IMHO it will (peak usd, peak inflation, peak worries etc and FED going for lighter hikes while ECB going for 50bps, in fact Terminal rate in europe will be HIGHER than U.S, as is currently predicted by the 2 respective CB's ! Peru: Anti-government protests will continue, says interior minister (firstpost.com) government overthrow likely, could spread to other parts of LATAM - hard to tell Venezuela public sector workers march for better salaries | Reuters Rishi Sunak was ‘unaware’ of Nadhim Zahawi’s £1m tax penalty (telegraph.co.uk) good grief, really!!? Politics news - latest: 'He's toast' - pressure builds on Nadhim Zahawi to resign over tax affairs | Politics News | Sky News EURCHF >> 1.05? have a wonderful day Team PVM

Kung Hei Fat Choy and happy happy rabbit ! European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year / Rehn this time and again, ECB’s Knot said to expect the ECB to hike by 50bps in February and March, followed by more steps in May and June Jack Ma is more than a symbol: The end of the Chinese entrepreneur is the end of the era of rapid growth for China. Excellent analysis / Nikkei article Japan finmin warns of severe finances as BOJ struggles to contain yields and BoJ minutes of the Dec meeting include wordings from two governments officials as they requested a rare adjournment Exxon’s predictions about the climate crisis may have increased its legal peril Several US states say news that Exxon scientists predicted global heating accurately strengthens their lawsuits against company Germany receives third floating LNG terminal Alphabet is laying off 12,000 staff due to a "different economic reality than the one we face today." Fed's total assets have shrank another 20bn last week. Since start of QT, the Fed's balance sheet has ''only'' shrunk by about $500bn Goldman Sachs to cut asset management investments that weighed on earnings Hong Kong aims to lift COVID-19 testing and inbound quotas on China border travel ''While this may look good for China, economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. offer caution—and cause for concern. Poring over Chinese bank-account and income data, they calculated that Chinese households have indeed built up excess savings, to the tune of $720 billion. '' Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market.The EV maker’s sudden move pressures rivals, crimps used-Tesla values Germany's foreign minister said her government would not stand in the way if Poland wants to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, in a possible breakthrough for Kyiv which wants the tanks for its fight against Russia's invasion Bill Gates has joined a slew of billionaires investing in an Australian climate tech startup that has plans to stop cows from burping methane.. Markets : USDJPY - watch out 131USDJPY+ (or you might prefer via EURJPY given ECB hawks out) for potential turnaround - chart below (+BoJ minutes and Kuroda on Friday). EURO higher on ECB commitment to higher rates SPX500 rangy 3850/00 vs 4000/50 well defined range for now , lot more going on underneath though, sector rotation, China etc. IF rates remain relatively well behaved, it's not too hard to think we can have a slow grinding markets that goes on to test 4100 or even 4300 area MACRO rates, there is a big trade out there, IF.. a short mild U.S recession quickly runs into a CHINA re-opening impact (see excess savings article below) and a lot of fiscal help >> this would call for steeper curves! Crude stead/higher - this could also grind towards $90+ on China Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on December 19 and 20, 2022 (boj.or.jp) Government officials who attended the Bank of Japan's policy meeting in December were granted a half-hour adjournment to contact their ministries, minutes showed, underscoring the significance of the central bank's decision to tweak its bond-market peg ECB's Rehn backs significant rate hikes in near term -paper | Euronews Germany receives third floating LNG terminal | Reuters China’s Reopening Comes With a $720 Billion Inflation Bomb: New Economy Saturday - Bloomberg Exxon’s predictions about the climate crisis may have increased its legal peril | ExxonMobil | The Guardian Analysis: Jack Ma downfall spells end of China's golden age - Nikkei Asia Goldman Sachs to cut asset management investments that weighed on earnings | Malay Mail Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market - WSJ Disrupting used car market caused Carvana to succeed and stumble (cnbc.com) Bill Gates fund invests in Perth startup slashing cow farts in Aussie-first (smartcompany.com.au) Davos round-up: Optimism, the dangers of forecasting and subsidy competition (msn.com) USDJPY - watch out 131USDJPY+ for potential turnaround...

Year of the rabbit coming up! Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 190,000 for the week ended Jan. 14, the Labor Department said on Thursday, this is astonishing really..when you think the 5y trend average is 245K... >>> hence FED member remain fairly hawkish, ''higher for longer'' (yes we've peaked clearly, yes inflation will fall relatively rapidly from 7 to 4% (not 2%), but the BIG question is about all those cuts (over 200bps) priced in already for 2023 and '24 some. We know overall macro data has been super weak (hence the 100bps plunge in 10y rates since Dec..!!..) but employment remains strong, so long this picture remains, 'mild recession-slowdown' for now is most likely scenario IMHO Trafigura : “If we want to reach net zero by 2050, we need to have two-thirds of energy from renewable sources by 2030. In that scenario, we need a 20% increase in production per annum of copper ." Japan trade minister Nishimura says will ask businesses to hike wages by 5% and more >> must be the only? country in the world (strong coalition..) where the Trade Minister is telling the Unions to go and get a 5pct pay rise, Japan's consumer inflation hits fresh 41-year high, at 4%, keeping BOJ in focus KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% 'cancel' rate. Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory European Central Bank member says market is mispricing rate hikes, expects more to come (Knot) Fed's Williams says Fed needs more rate rises to cool inflation, ''to bring down inflation it will require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labour conditions'' Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Thursday that high inflation in the United States is easing and suggested it was possible that the Fed’s interest rate hikes could slow price acceleration without causing significant job losses JPM's Marko Kolanovic negates market optimism, goes full bear. We think "markets that are heading towards recession are being further aggravated by central bank tightening. We think that recession is currently not priced in equity markets.'' The U.S. could be in the middle of a fiscal crisis in a few months as the government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit Genesis (not the band) files for bankruptcy The 30y US mortgage rate has moved from over 7%% to 6.10% over the last 2months , the largest 2months decline in rates since 2008/09 European gas prices are on track for their longest run of weekly losses in almost three years Markets : USDollar remains soft (ish) overall but near key supports. USDJPY 127-28 support though for now, CABLE near Dec highs around 1.2400, AUDUSD needs 'risk' to do okay to rally .7000+ again. EURUSD 1.08-1.0900 long-term resistance too GOLD above cluster of resistance 1915/25$, sustained break above $1935+ and the bulls will love it, XAGUSD needs $24.50+ >>> US debt $31trn+, risk usd losing it's dominance long-term - FT article below - all interesting long-term stuff... Equity markets 'struggling/peaked near resistance levels', on still pretty hawkish Fed and ECB. SPX500, we all know about resistance levels 4K+, the bulls want to hold 3850+ overall - ''early 2023 euphoria-momentum-short-covering'' clearly stalled... UST's, we've seen a near 100bp drop in 10y yields since Dec, can we really go any lower/more inversion ? Fears of US default grow as politicians squabble over raising the debt ceiling . Existing borrowing limits to be reached this week but ‘extraordinary measures’ will hold back the crisis until late summer >>> 1y CDS near 2013 highs Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – January 20, 2023 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: Somewhat muddled action across markets, as yields rebounded on hawkish ECB talk and strong US jobless claims data, halting the latest advance in the US dollar and Japanese yen. Equities traded on the weak side again, with Netflix reporting stronger than expected subscriber growth after hours, while its CEO is set to leave after twenty years in the position. Asian stocks advanced ahead of the week-long holiday for greater China to mark the Lunar New Year. US jobless claims, hawkish ECB halt the slide in yields | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Fears of US default grow as politicians squabble over raising the debt ceiling – The Irish Times Great power conflict puts the dollar’s exorbitant privilege under threat | Financial Times Helen Robertson on Twitter: "European gas prices are on track for their longest run of weekly losses in almost three years ⤵️https://t.co/soZz113MhO #ONGT #EnergyCrisis" / Twitter U.S. hits debt ceiling as partisan standoff sparks economic worries (yahoo.com) Trafigura on Twitter: "“If we want to reach net zero by 2050, we need to have two-thirds of energy from renewable sources by 2030. In that scenario, we need a 20% increase in production per annum of copper." Our CEO Jeremy Weir speaking today at #WEF2023 about the clean energy economy. https://t.co/mL2yhcp4ip" / Twitter .....most estimates say we need to double copper supply by 2030. HOWEVER, humanity has never doubled the globally available volume of any material in a decade. Ever. CONCODA 🥷🔥 on Twitter: "Fears of another liquidity crisis have entered the mainstream, with many people guessing what will cause the next financial upheaval. Right now, all triggers have been suppressed, but not for long. The Great Liquidity Squeeze™ is upon us... 1/" / Twitter long Thread, well documented Dairy Giant Vows To Cut Cow Farts By 30% Using Questionable Methods | The Daily Caller '''The elites in power all flew to Switzerland in their private jets to talk about climate change dur to air pollution. It's okay for the elites to pollute the air, God forbid if a cow farts'' :-) brilliant and its true some some -600- private jets at least...have landed so far last few days.. European Central Bank member says market is mispricing rate hikes, expects more to come (cnbc.com) Medvedev warns of nuclear war if Russia is defeated in Ukraine | World | The Times U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall (cnbc.com) Crypto broker Genesis files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy – The Irish Times St Jacinda’s global cheerleaders can’t acknowledge the truth about her fall (telegraph.co.uk) Ambulance workers to stage 10 further strikes as row over pay and staffing escalates | UK News | Sky News The New German Defense Minister’s Biggest Challenge Isn’t Ukraine - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace XAUUSD : 3months ago we talked a lot about #peakusdollar #peakworries , #FED hiking cycle continued, inversion etc...