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ECB committing to 3.25% / BoJ Dec minutes, #USDJPY #EURJPY / DE:3rd LNG Terminal / China $720bn



  • Kung Hei Fat Choy and happy happy rabbit !

  • European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year / Rehn this time and again, ECB’s Knot said to expect the ECB to hike by 50bps in February and March, followed by more steps in May and June

  • Jack Ma is more than a symbol: The end of the Chinese entrepreneur is the end of the era of rapid growth for China. Excellent analysis / Nikkei article

  • Japan finmin warns of severe finances as BOJ struggles to contain yields and BoJ minutes of the Dec meeting include wordings from two governments officials as they requested a rare adjournment

  • Exxon’s predictions about the climate crisis may have increased its legal peril

  • Several US states say news that Exxon scientists predicted global heating accurately strengthens their lawsuits against company

  • Germany receives third floating LNG terminal

  • Alphabet is laying off 12,000 staff due to a "different economic reality than the one we face today."

  • Fed's total assets have shrank another 20bn last week. Since start of QT, the Fed's balance sheet has ''only'' shrunk by about $500bn

  • Goldman Sachs to cut asset management investments that weighed on earnings

  • Hong Kong aims to lift COVID-19 testing and inbound quotas on China border travel

  • ''While this may look good for China, economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. offer caution—and cause for concern. Poring over Chinese bank-account and income data, they calculated that Chinese households have indeed built up excess savings, to the tune of $720 billion.''

  • Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market.The EV maker’s sudden move pressures rivals, crimps used-Tesla values

  • Germany's foreign minister said her government would not stand in the way if Poland wants to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, in a possible breakthrough for Kyiv which wants the tanks for its fight against Russia's invasion

  • Bill Gates has joined a slew of billionaires investing in an Australian climate tech startup that has plans to stop cows from burping methane..

 

Markets :
  • USDJPY - watch out 131USDJPY+ (or you might prefer via EURJPY given ECB hawks out) for potential turnaround - chart below (+BoJ minutes and Kuroda on Friday). EURO higher on ECB commitment to higher rates

  • SPX500 rangy 3850/00 vs 4000/50 well defined range for now, lot more going on underneath though, sector rotation, China etc. IF rates remain relatively well behaved, it's not too hard to think we can have a slow grinding markets that goes on to test 4100 or even 4300 area

  • MACRO rates, there is a big trade out there, IF.. a short mild U.S recession quickly runs into a CHINA re-opening impact (see excess savings article below) and a lot of fiscal help >> this would call for steeper curves!

  • Crude stead/higher - this could also grind towards $90+ on China

 

Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on December 19 and 20, 2022 (boj.or.jp)

Government officials who attended the Bank of Japan's policy meeting in December were granted a half-hour adjournment to contact their ministries, minutes showed, underscoring the significance of the central bank's decision to tweak its bond-market peg


ECB's Rehn backs significant rate hikes in near term -paper | Euronews


Germany receives third floating LNG terminal | Reuters


China’s Reopening Comes With a $720 Billion Inflation Bomb: New Economy Saturday - Bloomberg


Exxon’s predictions about the climate crisis may have increased its legal peril | ExxonMobil | The Guardian


Analysis: Jack Ma downfall spells end of China's golden age - Nikkei Asia


Goldman Sachs to cut asset management investments that weighed on earnings | Malay Mail


Tesla’s Price Cuts Are Roiling the Car Market - WSJ


Disrupting used car market caused Carvana to succeed and stumble (cnbc.com)


Bill Gates fund invests in Perth startup slashing cow farts in Aussie-first (smartcompany.com.au)


Davos round-up: Optimism, the dangers of forecasting and subsidy competition (msn.com)


USDJPY - watch out 131USDJPY+ for potential turnaround...



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