top of page
Search
  • Stéphan

Fed's Waller 25bps / #EURCHF / #XAUUSD / #MSFT after the close / SPX500 4'050+ big test




  • Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting, 25bps now nailed on, while ECB talks 50bps..

  • BoA : ''Trading the Twilight Zone: we are in the trickiest part of the investment cycle: tightening ending but easing far from beginning, inflation over but recession not yet begun, China reopen vs US recession…little wonder Wall St narratives changing quicker than a TikTok video; investor conviction remains in a huge bear market; and tail risks to consensus high''

  • MS : “While consensus shifts to a less negative stance amid a weaker dollar, China's reopening and the more stable (but lagging) hard data, we focus on the leading macro and earnings indicators which are now overwhelmingly weak—a dynamic the market is not priced for”

  • Ken Griffin's Citadel raked in $16 billion in 2022, marking the best year for any hedge fund in history

  • Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest

  • AUD : NAB’s monthly business survey shows that the economy is beginning to slow and that inflation passed its peak as of December, reinforcing market expectations that a peak in interest rates is near. Business conditions fell 8 points to be up 12 index points, with trading, profitability and employment down. Confidence rose 3 points to be down 1 index points, but remained well below average

  • Britain and the European Union are unlikely to fundamentally change their underlying Brexit settlement, making sector-specific deals for financial services, fisheries and energy necessary to prevent more disruption

  • Peru: Anti-government protests will continue, says interior minister

  • China Slams US on Debt Limit and Accuses Washington of Sabotage. US needs to ‘cope with its own debt problem,’ embassy says..Sharp words contrast with recent easing in China-US tensions/BBG

  • Former top FBI official charged with violating Russia sanctions

 

Markets :
  • SPX500...till it closes 'well' above this 4010-4050 range of resistance/trendlines..But it feels squeezy for choice-still (softer usd, BoJ on hold, FED moving to 25bps etc and a martket that looks badly positioned - 4300 would really be hurting the current '''negatively positioned market....'' >>> remember EVERYONE pretty much talked recession as we started 2023, with weak equity markets in H1 and a recovery in H2 - the reverse might well be true!

  • The first 3 weeks of the year are often driven by pure sentiment and short-term flows, beware of change of heart, this IS a market that can change its mind just like that

  • EURCHF - chart below - with higher ECB rates, wouldn't be shocked to see cross at 1.05 over next few months (GBPCHF similar ish)

  • Crude steady/higher, copper higher (Peru shutting down risk), metals higher

  • #Gold grinding higher still - hard to see why it should at mom, after the huge CB buyers late last year, the market is now having to do some work..

  • USDollar mixed to slightly softer still, same old, #XAUUSD notably grinding higher

 

Debt default would cost 6 million jobs, push jobless rate to 7 percent: analysis | The Hill

it should not, and it very most likely will not happen, but there you go - it's politics


Hedge Fund That Got China Right Sees Risk in US Markets (yahoo.com)


Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting (msn.com)


Citadel Posts Biggest Hedge-Fund Profit in History With $16 Billion in 2022 (businessinsider.com)


Peter Thiel Says British Affection for NHS Is Stockholm Syndrome (msn.com)

He is not wrong !


Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest - SWI swissinfo.ch


IW-Studie: Ukraine-Krieg kostet deutsche Wirtschaft 175 Milliarden Euro - WELT


Kaivan Shroff on Twitter: "Just to be clear, when the New York Times reported that the FBI saw “no link between Trump and Russia” — a week before the 2016 election — the FBI agent who was just arrested over ties to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska was heading up the investigation. Just an absolute scandal. https://t.co/0SQ6zr1zMV" / Twitter

Former top FBI official charged with violating Russia sanctions | The Hill


Britain and EU unlikely to change Brexit deal much, despite issues - World - Business Recorder (brecorder.com)


January 6 rioter who posed with feet on Nancy Pelosi’s desk guilty of all charges | Evening Standard


Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/15 Since the 1960s few arguments in international finance have been as exciting as "the coming demise of the dollar", but these arguments seem always to founder on the same set of mistakes. https://t.co/fsI0MkqE42" / Twitter

That's not to say the USDollar can't continue to weaken in short-term, IMHO it will (peak usd, peak inflation, peak worries etc and FED going for lighter hikes while ECB going for 50bps, in fact Terminal rate in europe will be HIGHER than U.S, as is currently predicted by the 2 respective CB's !


Peru: Anti-government protests will continue, says interior minister (firstpost.com)

government overthrow likely, could spread to other parts of LATAM - hard to tell

Venezuela public sector workers march for better salaries | Reuters


Rishi Sunak was ‘unaware’ of Nadhim Zahawi’s £1m tax penalty (telegraph.co.uk)

good grief, really!!?

Politics news - latest: 'He's toast' - pressure builds on Nadhim Zahawi to resign over tax affairs | Politics News | Sky News


EURCHF >> 1.05?




have a wonderful day

Team PVM










53 views
bottom of page