Fed's Waller 25bps / #EURCHF / #XAUUSD / #MSFT after the close / SPX500 4'050+ big test
Fed Governor Waller backs quarter-point interest rate hike at next meeting, 25bps now nailed on, while ECB talks 50bps..
BoA : ''Trading the Twilight Zone: we are in the trickiest part of the investment cycle: tightening ending but easing far from beginning, inflation over but recession not yet begun, China reopen vs US recession…little wonder Wall St narratives changing quicker than a TikTok video; investor conviction remains in a huge bear market; and tail risks to consensus high''
MS : “While consensus shifts to a less negative stance amid a weaker dollar, China's reopening and the more stable (but lagging) hard data, we focus on the leading macro and earnings indicators which are now overwhelmingly weak—a dynamic the market is not priced for”
Ken Griffin's Citadel raked in $16 billion in 2022, marking the best year for any hedge fund in history
Erdogan to Sweden: Don't expect Turkish support for NATO bid after Stockholm protest
AUD : NAB’s monthly business survey shows that the economy is beginning to slow and that inflation passed its peak as of December, reinforcing market expectations that a peak in interest rates is near. Business conditions fell 8 points to be up 12 index points, with trading, profitability and employment down. Confidence rose 3 points to be down 1 index points, but remained well below average
Britain and the European Union are unlikely to fundamentally change their underlying Brexit settlement, making sector-specific deals for financial services, fisheries and energy necessary to prevent more disruption
Peru: Anti-government protests will continue, says interior minister
China Slams US on Debt Limit and Accuses Washington of Sabotage. US needs to ‘cope with its own debt problem,’ embassy says..Sharp words contrast with recent easing in China-US tensions/BBG
Former top FBI official charged with violating Russia sanctions
SPX500...till it closes 'well' above this 4010-4050 range of resistance/trendlines..But it feels squeezy for choice-still (softer usd, BoJ on hold, FED moving to 25bps etc and a martket that looks badly positioned - 4300 would really be hurting the current '''negatively positioned market....'' >>> remember EVERYONE pretty much talked recession as we started 2023, with weak equity markets in H1 and a recovery in H2 - the reverse might well be true!
The first 3 weeks of the year are often driven by pure sentiment and short-term flows, beware of change of heart, this IS a market that can change its mind just like that
EURCHF - chart below - with higher ECB rates, wouldn't be shocked to see cross at 1.05 over next few months (GBPCHF similar ish)
Crude steady/higher, copper higher (Peru shutting down risk), metals higher
#Gold grinding higher still - hard to see why it should at mom, after the huge CB buyers late last year, the market is now having to do some work..
USDollar mixed to slightly softer still, same old, #XAUUSD notably grinding higher
it should not, and it very most likely will not happen, but there you go - it's politics
He is not wrong !
Kaivan Shroff on Twitter: "Just to be clear, when the New York Times reported that the FBI saw “no link between Trump and Russia” — a week before the 2016 election — the FBI agent who was just arrested over ties to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska was heading up the investigation. Just an absolute scandal. https://t.co/0SQ6zr1zMV" / Twitter
Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/15 Since the 1960s few arguments in international finance have been as exciting as "the coming demise of the dollar", but these arguments seem always to founder on the same set of mistakes. https://t.co/fsI0MkqE42" / Twitter
That's not to say the USDollar can't continue to weaken in short-term, IMHO it will (peak usd, peak inflation, peak worries etc and FED going for lighter hikes while ECB going for 50bps, in fact Terminal rate in europe will be HIGHER than U.S, as is currently predicted by the 2 respective CB's !
government overthrow likely, could spread to other parts of LATAM - hard to tell
good grief, really!!?
EURCHF >> 1.05?
have a wonderful day