Softer NFP, forced further unwinding of 'short UST's', and lifted rates sensitive equity sectors that had been hammered lately, small caps-Russell, regional banks, Reit's etc, too many were positioned on the ''higher for longer'' theme, however, 'high for longer' was always the most likely scenario.. KOSPI up 5%, as authorities banned short-selling... >>> softer economic data and more cautious Central Banks ahead is what Mr Market loved last week, fair to say though we had 4.9% GDP vs ISM sub 50 (weird), a slightly weaker Oct NFP print, yet the 3-6montrhs average remains pretty healthy, we now have 50bps cut priced in by July 2024.. South Korea bans short selling until 2024 BofA: Global central banks “now cutting rates at fastest pace since Aug'20 (30 cuts in 3 months) ..” [Hartnett] FT-Why there are still active asset managers. Markets appear inefficient enough to justify large investors’ use of them This week’s notional net buying ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past 5 years" GS PB AI bot capable of insider trading and lying, say researchers Saudi Arabia, Russia to continue additional voluntary oil cuts Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals record $157 billion cash pile as the investor hunts in vain for bargains AAPL has bought back over $600bn of its own stocks over the past 10 years >> that's more than the market cap of some 490 companies within the S&P500.. . Tesla to build 25,000-euro car at German plant "CTAs had $19b S&P to buy in a flat tape over 5 trading sessions... after Friday's close with momentum flipping from negative to positive across all 3 triggers this S&P demand should increase by at least 2x." - GS Japan's largest industrial union UA Zensen will seek a 6% total wage increase , of which 4% will be base pay hikes, at next spring's negotiations, a union official said on Monday Markets : UST 10y broke well below the short term support trend line, hitting the 50dma around here 4.60%, bigger support in yield terms is around 4.3% USDollar weakened fairly sharply vs a number of pairs, 'peak usd ?' certainly few decent moves came in as expected ...in CABLE, AUDUSD, USDJPY peaking 150-151+, EUROUSD 1.0500 area, USDCAD 1.3800, USDMXN, even USDCNH backed off 7.32+.. Equity markets : Very sharp short covering rally (remember 7weeks of HF selling shorts..?...all got squeezed now . Overall markets will feel comfortable again while above 200dma SPX500 around 4240 area, full blown move up into year-end ? 4380-4400 next stop (chart)... Small caps also rallied hard (from super oversold levels..) Financial conditions improved materially last week with lower UST yields and softer USD, while Crude lost 4% or so last week (HF selling too, cutting bullish bets..) Last week we got, a BoJ less aggressive, slightly better refunding announcement (the early trigger), a FED that emphasized on the the 'tightening of financial conditions', sharp short positioning equity (7 weeks of HF shorting..) and bonds got squeezed hard , 200dma in SPX500 2340+ now will make the 'year-end rally' crowd more comfortable, crude lower on HF liquidation too... Some UK embassy staff and families withdrawn from Lebanon amid Gaza tensions | Evening Standard Nordea Sees Deeper Sweden GDP Contraction in 2024 Amid High Rates - Bloomberg Asia stock markets live updates: South Korea bans short selling (cnbc.com) Why there are still active asset managers (ft.com) Swiss central bank adjusts interest rates on sight deposits - SWI swissinfo.ch Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals record $157 billion cash pile as the investor hunts in vain for bargains (yahoo.com) Saudi Arabia, Russia to continue additional voluntary oil cuts | Reuters Hezbollah says Israel to 'pay price' after strike kills 3 children in Lebanon | Reuters UBS: Mainland China Leads Global Art Spending (finews.asia) (1) Richard Bernstein Advisors on X: "Many investors worry about US #debt levels…yet, they still refuse to #invest outside the US. (Chart: @WSJ) https://t.co/oYBICnwtbR" / X (twitter.com) AI bot capable of insider trading and lying, say researchers - BBC News Zermatt ski World Cup to go ahead despite slope encroachment - SWI swissinfo.ch Elon Musk unveils Grok, an AI chatbot with a ‘rebellious streak’ | Elon Musk | The Guardian Wave of cancellations in German housing construction at new high -Ifo (yahoo.com) Tesla to build 25,000-euro car at German plant - source (yahoo.com) SPX500 - back near top ? or full blown move up into year-end ? 4380-4400 next stop

Blinken in Tel Aviv today, NFP later on and 17th Nov is the new date for the debt ceiling, most folks think it will (have) to be raised again, no doubt there will be plenty of wheeling and dealing ahead of it AAPL : High Q3 revenue not enough to reverse the downward trend in Apple's overall performance ECB hopeful on inflation but cannot close door on rate hikes -Schnabel, yesterday's U.S rate 'plunge' is almost equal to a rate cut (bonds were way oversold..), 17th Nov Debt ceiling date again... >>> “The Fact is the Committee is Not thinking about rate cuts right now at all. We’re not talking about rate cuts” – J. Powell Thomas Jordan: SNB «Fulfilled Its Mandate» in Saving CS Putin revokes Russian ratification of global nuclear test ban treaty Yellen says the US economic relationship with China must consider human rights and national security. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Washington wants to build an economic relationship with Beijing that takes into account national security and human rights and is fair to both sides Elon Musk tells Rishi Sunak AI will eventually mean no one needs to have a job in a conversation with the Prime Minister following the summit at Bletchley Park FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried facing decades in jail as he’s convicted of defrauding crypto customers Apple on Thursday posted its fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year sales declines as the iPhone maker continues to struggle with slower device sales amid an uncertain economic environment Central Banks were slow to start the hiking cycle 2y ago, the risk is they will be slow to show any signs of cutting (possibly too late), thus will keep a lid on consumers for a while, still so much debt to be rolled over next 18-24months Bill Gross says it’s time to buy these regional bank stocks - opportunity, oversold levs Markets : From oversold bonds and equity levels (HF sold equity for 7weeks in a row...), NFP up next, if in line, we could very well have the best equity week YTD! just like that Bonds similar picture - the big 5%+ will be tough from here USDollar would appear to be forming a few 'tops' last couple of months , take CABLE 1.2050-1.2150 area (1.23+ needed for the USD bears), AUDUSD 0.6275 - 0.6400 area (similarly would need 0.65+ for the Oz bulls, EURUSD around 1.0500, USDMXN quickly back down, USDCAD topped around 1.38000, USDJPY topped 151+ but BoJ will move on YCC in early 2024 + Fed might well have peaked >>> risk for further USD long unwinding going forward on any 'weaker than expected' data, which will push market to price in a cut some Q1 or Q2 2024. CHF overall may well have peaked for now, in fact it weakened after 'peaks worries' from 2nd or 3rd week in October.. Crude pretty stable low 80's$ still SPX500 well above 200dma 4240 area, the stocks outside the magnificent 7's had a pretty ferocious rally this week, sign of more to come ? let's see whether it was short-covering or simply that they appear 'too cheap' to many >>> Hedge Funds are the least long U.S. stocks they've been in more than 11 years according to data from Goldman Sachs.. hummm, year-end rally? Nvidia’s dominance in AI is causing “growing inequalities” between countries and is stifling fair competition, France's finance minister warned “The Fact is the Committee is Not Thinking About Rate Cuts Right Now at All. We’re Not Talking About Rate Cuts” – J. Powell (fxempire.com) US voices support for pause in Gaza fighting as Blinken flies to Israel (msn.com) Israel says it has encircled Gaza City | Reuters Fixed-income: A barbell strategy and three central banks | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Yellen says the US economic relationship with China must consider human rights and national security (qz.com) ECB hopeful on inflation but cannot close door on rate hikes -Schnabel | Reuters Sunak, Musk and AI: what we learned from the Bletchley Park summit | Artificial intelligence (AI) | The Guardian Elon Musk tells Rishi Sunak: AI 'the most destructive force in history' | Evening Standard AI bot capable of insider trading and lying, say researchers - BBC News Yups Apple’s slower device sales continue to weigh on earnings (yahoo.com) California EV sales top 20% through Q3, with Tesla's Model Y leading the way (yahoo.com) Moderna stock falls as sinking Covid vaccine demand drives steep loss (msn.com) Amazing, one of the darling of the covid times.. Putin revokes Russian ratification of global nuclear test ban treaty | Reuters India’s push toward renewables will not stop coal reliance for 20 years (cnbc.com) Thomas Jordan: SNB «Fulfilled Its Mandate» in Saving CS (finews.asia) Do you agree?.. FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried facing decades in jail as he’s convicted of defrauding crypto customers (msn.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 Important article on the way in which Chinese policy-makers are trying to prevent property-sector contraction from forcing them to cut back on overall investment by shifting investment from the degraded property sector towards manufacturing, https://t.co/mcLE21w9QY" / X (twitter.com) 4 in 10 workers with a 401(k) don't contribute to plan: CNBC survey Swiss authorities reportedly mull new rules to prevent bank runs - SWI swissinfo.ch have a great weekend team PVM

AAPL : The largest company in the world reports later on today U.S Treasury refunding (more issuance in short-end, less long-end, rebuild the TGA using RRP now..and get ready for an election year..probably keeping liquidities aplenty) ..came in slightly below 'feared levels', long-end rallied ahead of FOMC which was painted as perhaps 'high for not quite as long as feared' , although the text didn't change much at all ECB's Knot: Policy rates now are at a good 'cruising altitude' >>> given data, ECB is pretty much done IMHO, German data showing rise in claims, unemployment rising Japan unveils $113-billion package to cushion inflation, Japan PM Kishida says will push firms to achieve higher wage hikes next year and eventually drop YCC in Jan or Feb ? Toyota has stated that from January 1, most hourly manufacturing workers (in the U.S) will experience a wage increase of approximately 9%, Signa Development Selection AG bonds lost about half their value on concern the company, part of Austrian billionaire Rene Benk o’s sprawling real estate empire, is running low on cash SBF fraud trial begins closing arguments Trump trial document may prove he knew he lost election: Legal analyst FT- Media today stops politicians facing both ways on divisive issues Markets : Post Powell fear puke : VIX is not SPX500, but the last time VIX was here, SPX500 was 4'350 and long-end rallies on less Treasury issuance announcement UST 10's dropped relatively sharply (in an oversold market..) to now 4.74% EUROstoxx50 back near top of down channel, a bounce in a bear market must make lower lows to confirm bearish view, SPX500 back above 200dma ahead of AAPLE, Nasdaq100 back above those previous lows 14'500/700 area UST's whole curve beyond 1y back below 5% - markets were oversold in short-term, nice reaction on Powell who may or may not, probably won't hike TREASURIES-US yields slip after Treasury boosts auction sizes | Reuters Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement The Fed holds steady in an unprecedented economy (qz.com) U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh Fed policy outlook (cnbc.com) Japan unveils $113-billion package to cushion inflation | Reuters Germany's Jobless Rate Ticked Up in October - MarketWatch Israel-Hamas war live updates: Latest news on Gaza conflict (cnbc.com) Toyota Announces Wage Increase For US Factory Workers After UAW Secures Pay Hikes With Detroit Three (msn.com) DoubleLine’s Gundlach says interest rates are going to fall as recession arrives early 2024 (msn.com) Benko’s Signa Development Bonds Plunge as Cash Dries Up (yahoo.com) Benko's "Amigos" tremble: No way to get out of here - Inside Paradeplatz Nvidia: Competitors Will Be Watching Q3 Earnings (NASDAQ:NVDA) | Seeking Alpha SBF fraud trial begins closing arguments (yahoo.com) Trump Trial Document May Prove He Knew He Lost Election: Legal Analyst (newsweek.com) AI Experts Find Rishi Sunak And Elon Musk Interview "Depressing" (politicshome.com) After Greece clambers back to investment grade, what lies ahead? | MacroPolis China data stabilizes as policy measures accelerate (robeco.com) Too many bears?

Before the Fed decision, all eyes will be on this big Treasury debt announcement for FOMC : Nov meeting been long priced in as unchanged, as usual the presser, Powell's tone and every words will be analyse in 10seconds, overall hard to think how he can be too dovish with such strong GDP data and still some inflation concerns FT-The era of relentless Swiss franc appreciation is coming to an end >>> ''the policy has been successful, since Swiss inflation is now back below 2 per cent, meaning that the SNB is the only major central bank currently hitting its inflation target. Its latest forecasts project headline inflation of about 2 per cent over the coming two years'' The employment cost index, a broad gauge of wages and benefits, increased 1.1% in the July-to-September period after rising 1% in the second quarter Roche hits 5-year lows on disappointing study results, JPMorgan's bearish comments The UK Covid Inquiry is dragging Prime Minister Rishi Sunak back into the mire over his role in the country’s chaotic response to the pandemic Few months ago, EURO area inflation was meant to approach by year-end, it hit 2.9% in October, down from 4.2% in September, punchy!..core CPI though still 4.2% (from 4.5%) Canada's stalling economy on track for technical recession China leads record central bank gold buying in first nine months of year How WeWork’s Bankruptcy Would Ripple Through Commercial Real Estate (From a $9bn IPO SPAC to a top $47bn valuation..) The UAW deals could fuel more strikes in coming months , but if the labor market cools, that could tip the balance of power back toward employers UBS takes down Credit Suisse logo from Canary Wharf Office. Credit Suisse staff are relocating to the City of London Markets : EURJPY 160+ for the first time since Aug 2008, as the BoJ plays with fire, overall rates no higher so JPY less likely to weaken post BoJ (unlike previous months when global rates raced higher still) USDollar overall staying firm(er), CAD weaker on recession calls after GDP, CHF weakened fairly sharply into month-end (FT article), Gold topped 2K again but no momentum higher for now Equity markets rallied into month-end, as per usual.. now we wait for Powell and more announcement on refunding, hard to see Powell too dovish, data been still strong.. whether GDP is fuelled by debt or not, it was pretty strong! >>> keep 200dma in mind, markets probably still needs to sell some risk on rallies, APPL tomorrow too Crude stable too Before the Fed decision, all eyes will be on this big Treasury debt announcement Wednesday (msn.com) Powell likely to underscore inflation concerns even as Fed leaves key rate unchanged (msn.com) US Employment Costs Rise at Faster Pace on Pickup in Wage Growth - BNN Bloomberg Still firm-smidge firmer Canada's stalling economy on track for technical recession (yahoo.com) The era of relentless Swiss franc appreciation is coming to an end (ft.com) FACT SHEET: President Biden Issues Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence | The White House Apple revamps Mac lineup and pricing with new family of chips | Reuters Nothing really new? Covid inquiry: Why would the Scottish government delete WhatsApps? - BBC News And so many others in England... couldn't make this up Charlie Munger Blasts VCs As Gamblers Who Get Rich at Others' Expense (businessinsider.com) Anyone ? seems a bit harsh ? Southern California wildfire forces 4,000 residents to evacuate homes (cnbc.com) Roche hits 5-year lows on disappointing study results, JPMorgan's bearish comments By Investing.com AI benefits can 'dwarf anything in a generation,' says Sunak but Musk warns it could wipe out mankind | Evening Standard Boris Johnson suggested he thought COVID was 'nature's way of dealing with old people' | Politics News | Sky News Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by 2025, predicts Bernstein (cnbc.com) Here we go again China leads record central bank gold buying in first nine months of year (ft.com) How WeWork’s Bankruptcy Would Ripple Through Commercial Real Estate (yahoo.com) UAW Deal Shows Unions Are Winning. How Long Will It Last? - WSJ UBS Takes Down Credit Suisse Logo From Canary Wharf Office - Bloomberg

Stanley Druckenmiller slams Janet Yellen for ‘biggest blunder in Treasury history’: Failing to lock in rock-bottom interest rates GM is slowing EV production amid labor strikes and “evolving” demand . The automaker says it will save $1.5 billion next year by punting production to 2025 Panasonic reduces production of electric vehicle batteries BoJ raised inflation forecasts for the next 3years and kept policy pretty much unchanged, slight tweak, which is a little strange..JGB's continue lower 95bps, JPY still weak, 'flexible cap at 1%'', so it's not a cap really..! Ueda: Don't think long-term rates will come under pressure to exceed 1%, looks like the market will test them Citi argues if fiscal sustainability becomes a priority..higher corp taxes may become more palatable than spending cuts. .. The effective tax rate for the S&P 500 hovered around ~35% through the 1990’s. The average .. following the 2017 tax cuts was dropped to about 19% ..” JPMORGAN: “.. excess household liquidity (cash-equivalent assets) has fallen from peak of $3.4T to $1.0T and should largely be exhausted by 2Q24. Importantly, even as of 2Q23, nearly all the inflation-adjusted excess cash sits with the relatively affluent (top 20%).” [Dubravko] IMF : China's property sector crisis could intensify, posing a complex policy challenge . If property prices fall too rapidly, bank and household balance sheets will deteriorate, with potentially severe financial consequences German inflation data pretty soft yesterday and economy shrinks slightly in Q3, increasing pricing/expectations that ECB could cut as early as March 2024 Markets : SPX500 : while we remain below 200dma around 4235, markets will not feel the urge to buy and reduce risk on rallies , negative gamma below 4100 kicks in as well USDJPY testing BoJ again, JGB's are lower (95bps 10y) and JPY is lower too, which is slightly puzzling, although all yields are rising again Crude pretty steady still Credit, a lot more being written about it these days, warnings coming through thick and fast, as 'high for longer' is going to impact many weak balance-sheets going forward into 2024 and 2025 Yen slides as BOJ largely stands pat but tweaks yield cap (msn.com) k231031a.pdf (boj.or.jp) Treasury to borrow $776 billion in final three months of year (cnbc.com) Resilient Global Economy Still Limping Along, With Growing Divergences (imf.org) Stanley Druckenmiller slams Janet Yellen for ‘biggest blunder in Treasury history’: Failing to lock in rock-bottom interest rates (msn.com) German economy shrinks slightly in Q3 (msn.com) Tank seen on key Gaza road as Israeli forces push deeper into north - BBC News Apple announces new M3 chips, cuts price of entry-level MacBook Pro (cnbc.com) Nvidia’s $5 Billion of China Orders in Limbo After Latest U.S. Curbs | Mint (livemint.com) Partners Group Expands Japan Private Wealth Team (finews.asia) GM is slowing EV production amid labor strikes and “evolving” demand (qz.com) The UAW reaches deals with carmakers, but workers must approve (qz.com) Panasonic reduces production of electric vehicle batteries - FutureCar.com - via @FutureCar_Media Carl Quintanilla on X: "JPMORGAN: “.. excess household liquidity (cash-equivalent assets) has fallen from peak of $3.4T to $1.0T and should largely be exhausted by 2Q24. Importantly, even as of 2Q23, nearly all the inflation-adjusted excess cash sits with the relatively affluent (top 20%).” [Dubravko] https://t.co/WbUxX7011l" / X (twitter.com) Warren Buffett's company joins oil-buying frenzy this week by resuming its Occidental Petroleum buys (yahoo.com) Macron Travels to Central Asia Seeking Friendship and Uranium | TIME

The Bank of Japan faces a difficult monetary policy decision at its two-day meeting beginning Today , as the yen could further weaken if a policy tweak is not delivered as is expected by some in the financial markets. Fed long been expected to do nothing at this meeting, all about presser, high for longer and so on, GDP was still strong (even if fuelled by debt..), employment still strong (let's see Friday NFP again) and infl expectations still around 4% 1y out Wednesday when trading the refunding announcement is going to trump trading the Fed decision, all that matters at this moment is supply Hartnett: "The Greatest credit event of all is disorderly rise in bond yields leading to Dollar debasement" Goldman: "The Fed is done. Fed officials appear to have signaled that they will not be hiking at their November ... and we interpret their recent comments to imply that most would prefer not to hike again". The Fed's first cut will be determined by when NFPs turn negative Goldman Prime shocked by 12 Weeks of hedge fund shorting ss 'Mag 7' Trade Implodes: "The longest streak on our record" U.S consumer expectations : US consumer expectations for 1y inflation spiked to 4.2% U.S GDP for Q3, high number, but many looking underneath and growth is subsidised by massive debt IMF : Emerging market and developing economies will need about $2 trillion annually by 2030 to achieve net-zero emissions, but the policies of major banks aren’t always aligned with that target Toyota's chairman, Akio Toyoda, has long denied that electric vehicles are the only way forward for the automotive industry, and now that the segment's growth is slowing ECB's Kazimir: Additional tightening could come if incoming data forces us to Markets : Big picture, the markets are realizing that the last 10-12years of free money are over, initially many hoped rate would be cuts back quickly, but consider that they maybe not, we certainly remain in the 'high for longer camp', which will clearly influence downward pressure on buybacks with a higher cost of capital and always a risk of recession ahead Crude markets do not seem to be too concerned with ME tensions Equity markets closing in on a pretty weak month, room for SPX500 to rally back towards 200dma from here in a corrective phase, but overall remain cautious into year-end, Powell and FOMC could actually be relatively hawkish still this week. Bank stocks to lowest point in 3years, even below the SVB lows in March and the Russell 2000 has hit the lowest levels since November 2020 (bit oversold short-term, let's see FED and Treasury refunding) GOLD tops 2K again amidst risk weakness and ME tensions, back into big resistance though now $2030/2050 area All eyes on Treasury Funding announcement this week and eventual ME tensions (crude no higher in fact CHF a little softer too, not by much but welcome), JPY on BoJ tomorrow Bank of Japan facing currency conundrum heading into 2-day policy meeting - The Mainichi Treasury Refunding Looms Larger Than Fed for Nervous Bond Investors - Bloomberg US Treasury seen boosting auction sizes as budget deficit worsens (msn.com) Fed likely won’t raise rates this week, and will hope that they’re done (msn.com) Emerging Economies Need Much More Private Financing for Climate Transition (imf.org) U.S. GDP Hides Weakness Behind Massive Debt | dlacalle.com Why king’s speech could be pivotal policy moment for Sunak’s survival | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian Hertz bought a bunch of Teslas, and the economics seem to be kind of terrible for them. The value of the cars has fallen more than they'd expected, and also repair costs for them are higher than for normal ICE cars Hertz Misses Quarterly Profit Estimates as Its Fleet Costs Rise - Bloomberg Toyota Chairman Says “People Are Finally Seeing Reality” Of EVs | Carscoops BankofVol LatestHype¹⁰⁰⁰🤖🤖¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ on X: "Has the time of reckoning finally come? #Druckenmiller https://t.co/KIrfdg5Ups" / X (twitter.com) Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From the @FT interview with Christian Lagarde, President of the @ECB (link below). President @Lagarde is one of only two heads of systemically important #CentralBanks who have had the honesty, courage, and wisdom to publicly discuss the lessons learned from the mishandling of the… https://t.co/AqDfxCgheO" / X (twitter.com) Siemens Energy shares recover further as guarantee talks continue | Reuters NASDAQ100 - holding where it should SPX500 - in down trend still EURCHF - tested the 0.9450 area lows of Sep last year - would need to trader 0.97600/0.9700+ for the bears to be changing their views/positioning

ECB holds interest rates for first time in over a year, Lagarde sounded fairly dovish, on hold, data dependent, not ruling out anything and rate cuts weren't discussed, would be totally premature. Markets see the first ECB cut at Apr 2024 meeting. AMZN a very decent beat, cost cutting measures working, shares up 5% or so after hours, AAPL next week ME tensions still dominate, though not escalating at mom, plenty of rumours about Hamas potentially leaving Gaza and moving to Lebanon, a lot of secret meetings taking place no doubt, whether this is actually feasible or not... Kremlin also adressed rumours that Putin had a heart attack, Israel slamed Russia for hosting Hamas delegation US GDP grew 4.9% in Q3 QoQ annualized, way faster than +4.3% expected , growth mainly driven by private consumption and inventories. (so it 'may' not last). U.S. jobless claims rose slightly, remain in ultra-low territory though Rishi Sunak vows to tackle 'dangers' around AI as landmark paper published 55 Things you need to know about Mike Johnson Toymakers Hasbro and Mattel lowered their sales outlooks for the fourth quarter, amid a tough retail environment, almost all parts of the markets hit (expectations and valuations are so wrong!..) Bailing out central banks. The QE programme hangover/FT BofA's derivatives team refers to Hartnett: "...if SPX 4'200 can't hold with this level of bearishness then there may be imminent risks of credit event/hard landing" . They like the SPX DEC 4025 put as a tail hedge. U.S equity markets : amount of stocks below 200dma : SPX500 about 70%, Nasdaq comp 75%, Russel nearly 80% >>> is this enough bearishness to buy a bit in this dip ? or markets now sees some sort of blowout in junk spreads ? GM EV losses, in fact Hertz car rental miss earnings and the CEO singles out one specific car brand as the cause, TSLA Tokyo's core inflation unexpectedly higher again, BoJ in spotlight next Tuesday again! Tokyo CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.7% in Oct, exceeding market forecasts for a 2.5% gain China and the US appear to restart military talks despite disputes over Taiwan and South China Sea Markets : 200dma update, now broken/on weekly basis, while we remain below these levels, the market is likely to keep a cautious / sell rallies / hedge, reduce exposure on rallies. Nasdaq composite 200dma was around 12'775, SPX500 4230 area, NASDAQ100 needs to retake 14500-700 for bulls >>> see '50 cents's recap below too ARKK chart below USD firm, but no firmer this week, early focus next week with USDJPY/BoJ Tuesday -UST's 10's - 5.0/5.25% will attract new buy and hold interest, though supply, new refunding data next week will clearly weigh on prices Crude slightly higher ahead of weekend risk Overall remain cautious, though markets now slowly coming to our valuation levels and opportunities coming our way for clients ECB holds interest rates for first time in over a year (yahoo.com) Bailing out central banks (ft.com) Bond markets are doing the Fed’s work (ft.com) Core inflation in Japan's capital unexpectedly accelerates, BOJ in spotlight (msn.com) Yellen says yield surge is due to strong economy, not deficits | The Spokesman-Review IMHO...not entirely or partly true?.....a strong economy for sure, thanks to onshoring & higher government spending, on the back of much higher debt levels..not really sustainable... China and the US appear to restart military talks despite disputes over Taiwan and South China Sea | International | EL PAÍS English (elpais.com) Ukraine-Russia war - live: Kremlin addresses Putin heart attack rumours as Sevastopol targeted (yahoo.com) US launches strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria | The Independent (the-independent.com) 55 Things to Know About Mike Johnson, the New House Speaker - POLITICO crickey! n.45 Comcast sinks despite profit beat, as broadband subscribers slip and ad revenue slumps (msn.com) For those who follow '50 cent', here it is Wall Street Vol Legend "50 Cent" Unveils His Top 2024 Trade With "Extraordinary Upside" | ZeroHedge Lisa Abramowicz on X: ""Key measures of inflation have reaccelerated in recent months...The implication for investors is that the Fed will keep rates high until nonfarm payrolls go negative, because that is what is needed to get inflation under control:" Apollo's Slok https://t.co/2F25vPYfFk" / X (twitter.com) U.S. jobless claims rise slightly, remain in ultra-low territory (msn.com) Amazon's profit margin nears record high after CEO Jassy's cost cuts (cnbc.com) Rishi Sunak vows to tackle 'dangers' around AI as landmark paper published | Science & Tech News | Sky News >>> The government's first paper on AI's capabilities and risks comes ahead of a global safety summit at Bletchley Park, home of Britain's Second World War codebreakers, which will see other world leaders and tech bosses unite to discuss how the technology should be regulated Ed Conway on X: "My favourite thing abt my job is every so often I get a bit of time to go away and make a short film about complex, knotty, INTERESTING stories which can’t be told in 3 mins. Here’s the latest of them… What went wrong with our water system. Do watch: https://t.co/8LrXt5W2Rg" / X (twitter.com) Maine mass shooting: 18 dead and 13 injured in US city of Lewiston - BBC News another senseless and tragic mass shooting Hasbro, Mattel shares plunge as toymakers forecast a lackluster holiday season (msn.com) Basel EuroAirport undergoes fourth bomb alert evacuation in one week - SWI swissinfo.ch A Swiss populist party rebounds and the Greens sink in the election. That's a big change from 2019 | AP News Putin ‘forming axis of terror’ as he welcomes Hamas and Iran to Moscow (telegraph.co.uk) Why so many Hamas hostages are from Thailand (qz.com) Investor Byron Wien of Blackstone dies at 90 (cnbc.com) Legend Hertz misses profit estimate as Tesla price cuts hit fleet value (yahoo.com) GM Scales Back EV Plans as Buyers Hesitate (msn.com) >>> Tesla lowered the price of EVs by so much GM & Ford have been forced to delay $10s of billions of investments Siemens Energy shares slide 35% after company seeks support from German government (msn.com) tough market conditions! Electricity prices ‘must rise by 70pc to pay for more wind farms’ (telegraph.co.uk) the trouble is the message from politicians to voters is that with green energy bills will be lower.. this was always sold as a lie.. badly managed, now folks are ''forced'' to think differently because of the cost of living.. ARKK - that low range holding - investors in those type of names, better hope duration doesn't selloff further (or many of these companies with no E and relying on debt will not survive, consolidations or more stock debt issuance etc)

META : big numbers, mostly expected/priced in..(valuations..), slight negative '“the revenue outlook (particularly ads..) is uncertain” said the Chief Financial Officer Susan Li''' , and trading 3% lower after hours, dragging NASDAQ100 further down (watch out 14K-chart) and SPX00 trades well below 200dma now, bond disease spreading to large caps (lots of sectors underneath already weakened on higher for longer and bond moves..) Israel ‘preparing ground invasion’ of Gaza, says Netanyahu Mike Johnson was elected US House speaker after more than three weeks of Republican infighting - few bits below Europe’s Money Markets are on alert for stricter ECB Bank reserve rules, the so-called Minimum Reserve Requirements. European Central Bank meets as bond markets wobble and economy turns south US new-home sales for Sep 0.759M vs 0.680M est, much stronger Glencore : We’re one of the world’s largest recyclers of end of- life electronics and a major recycler of complex secondary copper, nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bearing feeds Bank of Canada decision: Rates held unchanged at 5.00%, as expected Porsche confirms outlook but warns luxury not immune to economic woes UAW, GM : ''record profits mean record contracts'' >>>which is fair enough, however shareholders less happy (chart below) Apple raises prices for Arcade gaming subscription service , AppleTV+ streaming Rabobank: "there is really so much that can go wrong when several powerful states are playing chess against each other on three different chess boards around the globe" Japan PM Kishida: FX intervention not a contradiction of policy >>> markets testing them! Markets : Bond weakness comes back very easily - 10's UST back to 5, duration, term and quite possibly credit now.. >>> bond weakness forcing unwinding in eq 'safe haven', big Techs, magnificent 7's etc..dragging indices down/through support USDollar remain firm(er), CABLE trending lower still (chart) - only one example SPX500 well through 200dma now, NASDAQ100 through 14K and it's alarm bells, charts below Next up AMZN tonight and bit earlier 7y UST auction, very important in current context, 5y last night wasn't pretty Europe’s Money Markets Are on Alert for Stricter ECB Bank Reserve Rules (yahoo.com) European Central Bank meets as bond markets wobble and economy turns south (msn.com) Treasury Traders Face ‘Pretty Big’ Falling Knife in Trying to Stem Selloff - Bloomberg Israel-Hamas live: Israeli tanks enter Gaza as part of ‘targeted’ raid ahead of full-scale ground invasion (yahoo.com) Israel-Hamas ceasefire is 'untenable', says Defence Secretary Grant Shapps | Politics News | Sky News Biden campaign knocks Johnson Speakership as cementing ‘extreme MAGA takeover’ of House GOP | The Hill China is dumping U.S. Treasuries to buy gold - FX Empire's Zernov | Kitco News Glencore on X: "We’re one of the world’s largest recyclers of end of- life electronics and a major recycler of complex secondary copper, nickel, cobalt, gold, silver, platinum and palladium bearing feeds. Find out how we’re supporting the transition to a circular economy here:" / X (twitter.com) Apple raises prices for Arcade gaming subscription service, AppleTV+ streaming (qz.com) Facebook parent Meta posts sharply higher profit in 3Q thanks to increase in ad revenue (qz.com) Porsche warns luxury not immune to economic woes (rte.ie) Porsche has today reported nine-month results in line with its annual forecast but warned the luxury sector was suffering like others from higher costs and dampened consumer confidence as interest rates rise Ford, UAW reach tentative deal to end labor strikes (msn.com) Ford reaches deal with union to end US strike and raise wages (ft.com) EUROstoxx50 - same trend lower Nasdaq100 a break of 14K would really put a lot more pressure on the previously magnificent 7's.. GM GBPUSD

MSFT boosted by AI (shares up 3% - the most likely big Techs to have kept up with earnings, it0's fair to say..), while Google lags (shares down 6%) House GOP gives Mike Johnson Speaker nod after whirlwind Emmer dropout IEA energy outlook , based on current climate and energy policies, IEA is looking for global oil, gas and coal demand to peak by 2030 Xi makes unprecedented Central Bank visit in sign of focus on economy BlackRock's Fink: increase in US deficit is highly inflationary (too much spending..) EURO are PMI's were still on the weak side of things yesterday , pretty ugly actually, cycle lows in EZ composite, not really confirming a consistent wage-price spiral ! German companies mentioned a relatively steep rise in expenses on services side, but a big fall on manufacturing costs, so margin pressure likely in near future Sweden’s Central Bank needs more than $7 Billion to cover losses >> slightly misleading : Well it's one of the very few CB that marks to market it's bond portfolio! just imagine how big the 'losses' would be for ECB, FED, BoJ etc etc (BoA's YTD something like $100+bn)... ECB's BLS : "The net decrease in loan demand was also among the strongest in BLS history for SMEs." Europe’s Energy quandary: navigating between Qatar and climate goals California on Tuesday ordered General Motors' cruise unit to remove its driverless cars from state roads , calling the vehicles a risk to the public and saying the company had "misrepresented" the safety of the technology Kremlin responds to rumors of Putin body double amid heart attack claims Markets : -10's UST 4.9% vs 10's Greece near 4.4%.. >>> US Treasury is widely expected to announce huge coupon incr size across the curve in their refunding announcement -#KRE - Regional Bank stocks have fallen to their lowest prices since late May (chart) - Crude : softer prices, seems 'global slowdown, recession risk' having more impact than geopolitics in ME -USDollar back up firm(er) again, pretty easily really after the Ackmann dip yesterday, hard to see $ weakening materially - Equity markets : 200dma 4235 area in SPX500 the key AND watch sentiment will decide after the big 7's report, Google and TSLA lower, MSFT (the most likely to do well) holding up, next up AMZN and APPLE next week (NVDA is much later, 21st Nov), nothing grandissima to report, they delivering but a few cracks/signs of slowdown appearing Republicans pick Mike Johnson as latest House Speaker nominee - BBC News Sweden’s Central Bank Needs More Than $7 Billion to Cover Losses (yahoo.com) Dozens Of States Sue Meta Over Children’s Mental Health | The Daily Caller Xi Makes Unprecedented Central Bank Visit in Sign of Focus on Economy (yahoo.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 According to Zhou Xin at SCMP, with the creation of the Central Finance Commission, "decision-making power is now concentrated at the CFC, rendering the PBOC and other financial regulators mere enforcement apparatuses and front offices." https://t.co/3aUdqQLZQM via @scmpnews" / X (twitter.com) China needs deep reform, not temporary fixes, to reanimate economy, former official says | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Jamie Dimon Criticizes Central Banks for ‘Dead Wrong’ Forecasts (yahoo.com) Well.. says the the CEO of hte bank thta paid the most fines during the GCC crisis - $39bn, trouble is, IMHO, the creation of ZIRP, NIRP, 35trn of QE overall, Covid, ESG/wars, energy sources and now QT, 5% UST's have all happened in a VERY fast time, faster ever ever ever, and thus has thrown the 'usual slow economic modes' out of the window.. Central banks and governments, have created this insane bubble (which has started to deflate last 2y, China, real-estates, reits, eq names without much of an E and weak balance-sheets etc) with debt that has doubled last 15years worldwide, governments can't simply print to keep the voters happy, choices will have to be made now, governments will have to reign in on spending.. Microsoft, Google post strong quarterly sales growth as Big Tech continues its comeback (msn.com) European Central Bank on X: "We asked 157 banks about changes in their lending conditions and loan demand and the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy measures during the third quarter of 2023. Find out what they said in our bank lending survey: https://t.co/VvGqxX8PoQ https://t.co/sIkkPrXkgf" / X (twitter.com) Opinion: By blaming China for its trade deficit, EU is barking up the wrong tree | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) - Pettis on it Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 Zhou Xiaoming says that Brussels shouldn't complain about lack of access to the Chinese markets. He says "The fact is, China’s trade surplus is the result of the interplay of market forces, due to the country’s manufacturing prowess." https://t.co/PuARwlSm7x via @scmpnews" / X (twitter.com) Israelis have 'a lot of confidence in military leadership, not so much in the political leadership' - France 24 Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Discuss Escalating Gaza Conflict (msn.com) Bill that would ban boycotting Israel set to be debated in Parliament (cityam.com) Europe’s Energy Quandary: Navigating Between Qatar and Climate Goals (msn.com) Scandale en Valais: Swiss Ski défend les travaux sur la piste de Zermatt | 24 heures Bonkers Kremlin Denies Rumors Of Putin Body Double Amid Heart Attack Claims (forbes.com) World Energy Outlook 2023 (windows.net) #KRE - tough markets to pick winners WTI crude

UST 10's 'top' 5% and retrace , will this be ?..far too early to tell, momentarily why not Israel is about to make a terrible mistake article by Thomas Friedman (below), Hamas releases a couple of hostages overnight Only two of the eight candidates for House speaker, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Rep. Austin Scott, voted to certify President Joe Biden's victory in 2020 presidential election World oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030, IEA says Hang Seng mainland property index is down 80% since 2019/2020 period , underpinning the huge issues in the sectors we've all heard in the last 12months and China's Nasdaq-Style Index falls to record low: Star 50 index, which tracks manufacturers, chipmakers & biggest comps on Star Board, falls to lowest since its inception >3yrs ago UK August ILO unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.3% expected Germany November GfK consumer sentiment -28.1 vs -26.6 expected ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks drive US equity domination to new highs Handful of companies propel all of this year’s gains in the MSCI All-Country World index, earnings coming up, TSLA was 1st one out with earnings last week (softer) Chevron buying Hess for $53 billion in latest major Oil Deal >> no premium 'paid' , sector Investors demand highest premium in years to hold risky European debt Spreads on euro-denominated junk bonds rise to widest levels since 2016 Markets : Cocoa prices rose to 45y highs, bad time for choccy lovers like me 10's UST relatively sharp turn off 5.01% top, the Ackmann top they call it USDollar duly follows softer and risk ticked up , Nasdaq100 held those late Sep, early Oct lows again around 14'500 level, SPX500 around 200 dma >>> ALL about what the rest of the big 7's earnings reports and price action thereafter Copper hit a 1y low as well BTC 34K quietly, on ETF optimism! GOLD 'stalling' ahead of $2k resistance again , market no longer short XAU ! BONDS move first, USD and risk (QQQ mainly) followed, pretty classic price action yesterday Bill Ackman covers bet against Treasurys, says 'too much risk in the world' to bet against bonds (msn.com) Cramers Corner Daily Technical Update | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Investors demand highest premium in years to hold risky European debt (ft.com) ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks drive US equity domination to new highs (ft.com) Chevron Buying Hess For $53 Billion In Latest Major Oil Deal (forbes.com) China Sovereign Fund Buys ETFs in New Bid to Boost Stocks - Bloomberg What is the risk of a short squeeze now? "Still present, but potentially delayed...A squeeze might not accelerate unless we get 1) evidence consumer spending isn’t slowing too much 2) relatively good earnings season 3) Fed communicating they’re on hold Given the conditions that might have to be met, a sustained move higher in shorts seems like a greater possibility in Nov than right now" (JPM Position Intelligence) World oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030, IEA says | Reuters Controversy Ensues About the Use of Heavy Machinery on Glacier at Zermatt, Switzerland - SnowBrains talked worldwide apparently ! Opinion | Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake - The New York Times (nytimes.com) Good read >>>> But if Israel feels it must reoccupy Gaza to destroy Hamas and restore its deterrence and security — I repeat — it must pair that military operation with a new commitment to pursue a two-state solution with those Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza ready to make peace with Israel A British court ruling frees Nigeria from paying $11 billion in damages over a failed gas project (qz.com) Nvidia (NVDA) Is Developing PC Chips With Arm Technology to Challenge Intel - Bloomberg Abrdn Divests its Private Equity Business (finews.asia) Eight Republicans are vying to become the next House speaker. These are the candidates (msn.com) USDJPY failed to crack 150+... if ever there was a time to try top short a few USDJPY .. Copper

President Biden entered the White House with the goal of ending the “forever wars” that had consumed America for two decades and instead focusing on domestic priorities and girding the U.S. to compete with China/WSJ. American troops at risk across Middle East amid rising tensions, US warns, war of words and demonstration of strength at seas, lots going behind the scenes between various parties. Busy week ahead : deeper into earnings season, plenty of macro data, Fed speaker last week, more importantly Powell didn't walk back his relatively hawkish stance, high tension in geopolitics, U.S, Chinese warships in the Middle East, worrying build up BoJ may review Yield-Curve Control policy as rates rise: Nikkei S&P returns Greece's credit rating to investment grade, drops negative outlook on UK credit rating Apple supplier Foxconn subjected to tax inspections by Chinese authorities Jim Jordan dropped out of the race for House Speaker The US govt said its deficit rose to $1.78tn, or 6.3% of GDP in the year ended Sept. 30 , from $1.4tn, or 5.4% of GDP, a year earlier. Without an accounting change related to the admin’s aborted student-loan-cancellation program, deficit would have been closer to $2tn, a doubling from the prior year China stocks have wiped out all of their gains since reopening from pandemic lockdowns Argentina’s economy minister Sergio Massa scores first-round election win over Javier Milei ESG is beyond redemption: may it RIP . The investing framework is now facing a mountain of troubles, almost all of them of its own making >>> such a big marketing fools tools for big institutions, clients came second Why big oil is beefing up its trading arms Markets : HYG (chart) having a bad month, specifically longer-dated corporate bonds, time premia etc >>> long-term yields, expansion of term premiums, technicals (supply-demand in T market), momentum funds selling and fundamentals (fiscal sustainbility..33trn$+ and going) and slightly stronger U.S growth/data all combining to keep UST's under pressure, duration selling-off, credit remains 'the' key for markets, higher credit leads to higher capital costs for corporations, balance-sheet analysis more than important than in a very long-time.. Crude steady, though... Global crude oil in floating storage declines to near 4-year low UST yields higher, USD steady to slightly higher, risk 'heavy' going into big earning's week BTC 31K ! Gold testing recent highs just shy of $2000, though showing signs of breaking higher vs other major currencies. XAGUSD been consolidating for long while (chart) SPX big earnings week, SPX500 around 200dma, clearly a big test/moment for momentum into year-end Why big oil is beefing up its trading arms (yahoo.com) Earnings Calendar Spotlight: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Headline Huge Week Of Tech Earnings (msn.com) Apple supplier Foxconn subjected to tax inspections by Chinese authorities (qz.com) A bearish take from Morgan Stanley's industrial team 1. Large capital equipment decisions are being deferred. 2. Global manufacturing momentum (IP growth) is already recessionary. 3. Leading companies (eg. ASML, Tesla) are highlighting the effects of higher rates on their businesses. 4. Destocking is still at an intermediate phase. 5. Order softness is no longer confined to one region (eg. China) or end-market (eg. construction). 6. Capital Goods companies have been over-earning in areas like Electrification and Distribution – this is where the future margin risks lie. 7. Buffett Indicator suggests ~15% sector downside to post GFC valuation levels, >50% to pre-GFC (1995 – 2010). Morgan Stanley reverses course on the housing market, seeing a lot more pain ahead for homebuyers (yahoo.com) S&P returns Greece's credit rating to investment grade (msn.com) Moody's drops negative outlook on UK credit rating (msn.com) BOJ May Review Yield-Curve Control Policy as Rates Rise: Nikkei - Bloomberg ESG is beyond redemption: may it RIP (ft.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "While the U.S. and China continue to let deficits rip, Europe’s are on track to narrow significantly thanks to lessons of the euro crisis. The US govt said its deficit rose to $1.78tn, or 6.3% of GDP in the year ended Sept. 30, from $1.4tn, or 5.4% of GDP, a year earlier. Without… https://t.co/N5BcBYkn59" / X (twitter.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 Yesterday's vote was a big one. Sergio Massa won 36.5% of the vote, against 30.0% for Javier Milei and 23.9% for Patricia Bullrich. In three weeks, in other words, it will be mostly up to Bullrich's supporters to select either Massa or Milei. https://t.co/5OOaPPnvp5 via @ft" / X (twitter.com) Where countries stand on the Israel-Hamas war (msn.com) Biden Wanted to End 'Forever Wars.' Now He Looks Like a Wartime President. (msn.com) Israel-Hamas Latest: US Should Punish Iran for Proxies' Attacks - Bloomberg seems this is what they are planning or preparing for American troops at risk across Middle East amid rising tensions, US warns (ft.com) China Now Has Six Warships in the Middle East: Reports (msn.com) Blinken, Austin say US is ready to respond if US personnel become targets of Israel-Hamas war | The Hill This big build up is a little worrying - dangerous times GM and Ford report Q3 earnings as Wall Street and UAW watch (cnbc.com) EU, US to keep talking about tariffs as war in Israel and Ukraine overshadow talks | Reuters The simple reason that Jim Jordan’s speaker bid was in deep trouble (msn.com) Hong Kong policy address 2023: What to expect from John Lee (cnbc.com) China Stocks Have Wiped Out All of Their Gains Since Reopening (businessinsider.com) Roche to pay $7.1bn for Telavant to boost its pipeline - SWI swissinfo.ch HYG - just to put things in perspective Silver - been consolidating for a long while, 30+ anyone ?

Powell was initially read as dovish by 'the machines', various comments (see below, eventually pushed UST 10's to near 5%, 30's 5.10%, equity markets couldn't hold, particularly with higher crude prices too. SPX500 getting nearer to the 200dma again in low 4200's area, depending on whether you take cash or futures pricing.. Nasdaq's recent lows around 14'500 in sight, DAX has broken down through those lows made at the same time, so has the EUROstoxx50. GOLD and CHF the only winner in FX land still, JPY not doing much at all, only perhaps if/when credit misbehaves Israel plans buffer zone in Gaza after Hamas war . Palestinians in territory ‘will never be able to come close to the Israeli border’, says minister BBG COLUMN: In the world of oil sanctions, Venezuela is no Iran U.S : A new survey from Bankrate.com finds 55% of workers say their incomes have not kept up with rising household expenses amid persistent high inflation, more strikes ? BoJ to hold first long-term monetary policy review workshop on 4 December German PPI -14.7 YoY....the most since start of statistics in 1950 ! MoM -0.2% >>> Yesterday’s Euro CPI shows that 78% of the components are decelerating. That’s totally unprecedented -Shares of Tesla fell Thursday after the electric automaker released third-quarter results that missed on top and bottom lines Coinbase is ‘confident’ a U.S. bitcoin ETF will be approved after SEC’s court defeat Markets : GOLD is making new highs vs most major currencies, USD next ? VIX closed above 20 for the 1st time in over 100 trading sessions Equity markets showing signs of weakness, breaking down, weal momentum, #TSLA the first of the magnificent 7 reported and the stock was down 10% yesterday.. USDJPY doesn't seem to be able to break 150JPY, CHF powering ahead, GBP relatively week, CROSSJPY's still pinned near their highs, watch #HYG weakens sharply or not, if it does, JPY should react too (too many JPY shorts?) Bond markets, long-end struggling, term premia, lots of pretty worrying commentators talking 'Fed loosing control of bond markets', bond vigilante back etc..I MHO 10's towards 5.5% is possible, but we can't really go much higher (OR we go steeper from here again, Fed cuts eventually etc)...otherwise a lot of assets and bizz models will properly break GOLD steadily higher... BTC too So we have Gold, BTC and CHF up... rest struggling Powell: "We've certainly got a resilient economy on our hands." "It may just be that rates have not been high enough for long enough." "It may take more time." ‘’It does not feel like policy is too tight’’ Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down (cnbc.com) Latest message from Fed Chief Powell to the global investors - Investing Abroad News | The Financial Express Fed's Logan: Fed has "some time" to see data before deciding next rate move (msn.com) Powell sets table for November pause, warns of more rate hikes if economy heats up (yahoo.com) 55% of working Americans say their pay isn't keeping up with inflation (cnbc.com) Israel-Hamas War Latest News on October 19: Sunak's Visit, Biden's Address, More - Bloomberg Israel plans buffer zone in Gaza after Hamas war – The Irish Times CS-Abbau viel dramatischer: Uetlihof verwaist - Inside Paradeplatz Tesla shares plummet 9% after Elon Musk sounds cautionary note, downplays Cybertruck (cnbc.com) John P. Hussman, Ph.D. on X: "Stock market valuations stand at one of the three great bubble extremes in U.S. history. https://t.co/AFtJoWNCl6 I know you don't care. "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it." - Upton Sinclair Bookmark this. https://t.co/NOAF7ez6qm" / X (twitter.com) Coinbase 'confident' a U.S. bitcoin ETF will be approved (cnbc.com) Javier Blas on X: "[ICYMI] COLUMN: In the world of oil sanctions, Venezuela is no Iran. The White House has turned a blind eye on Iran oil sanctions, triggering a ~700,000 b/d output hike. But easing Trump-era sanctions on Venezuela would result on a smaller hike | #OOTT https://t.co/QtUHBJCj1R https://t.co/eek7QoreSe" / X (twitter.com) Lisa Abramowicz on X: "The Fed is losing control over the bond market. This is partly by design, but I wonder how much more discussion there'll be about the Fed's balance sheet over the next 6-12 months as it keeps shrinking and long-term bond yields keep swinging. https://t.co/LP3r4cCFgt https://t.co/fYIraJunIF" / X (twitter.com) Sunak’s Covid startup fund invested nearly £2m in firms linked to his wife | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian Storm Babet in pictures as town evacuated and roads collapse in torrential downpours | The Independent Why more mortgage applications are being rejected based on income (cnbc.com) Moving to Spain 2023 Report: best countries to retire in Europe (cnbc.com) Northern Germany hit by storms and flooding - The Local EUROstoxx50 DAX SPX500 NASDAQ100 GOLD vs USD AUDJPY - very mixed feelings about JPY, staying weak on BoJ stance/YCC etc, positioning is quite short JPY, so any deeper correction in equity might lead to more credit issues and JPY may awaken