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The world needs 2 billion electric vehicles to get to net zero. But is there enough lithium to make all the batteries? Hong Kong is fully reopened to overseas arrivals, 3-day monitoring removed GOLDMAN: “Next year, we expect that zero earnings growth will result in zero appreciation for the S&P 500. .. Based on our conversations with clients in recent weeks, many investors have a more bearish equity market outlook than we do.” [Kostin] >>> all about stock picking over the next few years, quality names! China Plans Over $143Bln Push to Boost Domestic Chips, Compete With US >>> yet.., A sharp increase in China’s Covid infections following an abrupt end to strict pandemic control measures suggests investors may need to pare back on reopening trades, according to Morgan Stanley FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried nicked in the Bahamas after US files criminal charges. US Justice Department may charge Binance Execs for money laundering, Silvergate in the mix too etc etc ... JPM: "CPI Prints 6.9% or lower. A print here could be the technical end of the bear market, putting this latest rally at a more than 20% move from its lows in October. SPX +8% - 10%." >> let's see about this then later on!, nothing like pumping some ideas, on a random number, nothing like a bit of publicity.. New York Fed survey on inflation: Year ahead inflation falls to 5.2% from 5.9% last month, that's a record month to month drop Looking back at the last 22 years of monetary policy. Central bankers created more than $30trn USD >> great Thread below Putin unexpectedly cancels annual Year-End marathon Press Conference, though, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to hold talks on New Year's Eve - Vedomosti Alabama, Utah become the latest U.S. states to ban TikTok on state devices EU corruption scandal: European Parliament offices searched Markets : Equity markets : do NOT be surprised if we move 3-4% over next 24hours, up and/or down in fact, and do not forget OPEX expiry Friday, which will impact on the edges of recent range USD remains stable/softish but nothing really new this week Bonds reacted a little to slightly higher PPI last Friday, but nothing ramatic - yet anyway ALL about language, 50bps cemented, clearly 25 or 75bps would be a big surprise to markets and will have its implications, U.S CPI first >>> looking at implied vols, VERY high for a couple of days (on random numbers and headlines...) then implied cut in half, so high vol on number then hopefully ''relatively quiet'' going into year-end Crude off lows, China re-opening US Inflation over the last couple of months (CPI YoY) October 2021: +6.2% November: +6.8% December: +7% January 2022: +7.5% February: +7.9% March: +8.5% April: +8.3% May: +8.6% June: +9.1% (was the high) July: +8.5% August: +8.3% September: +8.2% October: +7.7% November: (Expectation +7.3%) Electric vehicle demand – has the world got enough lithium? | World Economic Forum (weforum.org) >>> the world is way way behind the plan, the amount of capital required are probably 100x what's been discussed right now to be effective and there is probably not enough lithium in the world for such big rollout, and not enough iridium either (for sure..!!) UK economic bounce back a false dawn as recession still looms (cityam.com) All change - GS on China covid zero: "we have changed our base case to "effective reopening with control" vs. our long-held view of vaccinating the elderly before reopening after next year's "Two Sessions" Kosovo Urges NATO Intervention As Serbia Border Tensions Explode, Gunfire Exchanged | ZeroHedge - please make this all calm down Best thing about Eva Kaili's arrest is that she got paid bride from Qatar....IN FIAT currencies :-) when her role is .....European Parliament | Chair C4AI | ICT | Foresight Innovation Digital Strategy | CSR | InvestEU | Blockchain Who is Eva Kaili, the MEP at the centre of the corruption scandal shaking up Brussels? | Euronews - you just couldn't make this stuff up.. EU corruption scandal of 'utmost concern' after four charged over alleged bribes from Qatar, von der Leyen says | World News | Sky News EU corruption scandal: European Parliament offices searched - BBC News Binance slams ‘wrong’ report about the DOJ considering money laundering charges against the crypto exchange (msn.com) Putin cancels annual press conference for the first time in 10 years (yahoo.com) CS befördert wie wild, macht "Juniors" zu Directors - Inside Paradeplatz Javier Blas on Twitter: "I have written only one story about fusion energy. For my university's newspaper 25 years ago. Thankfully, it isn't online. Since then, I'm skeptical of surprisingly well-timed announcements by budget-starved laboratories about breakthroughs for technologies decades away |🧵1/10" / Twitter Seven dead as Peru's new leader fails to quell protests | World News - Hindustan Times Explained: What's behind the long-running conflict between Serbia and Kosovo? (firstpost.com) India's defense minister Singh says Indian and Chinese soldiers came to blows last week. India raised the issue with China diplomatically. Soldiers on both sides suffered from injuries.-BBG Jacinda Ardern caught on hot mic calling minor opposition party leader an ‘arrogant prick’ | Jacinda Ardern | The Guardian Have a great day Team PVM

China to use Shanghai exchange for yuan energy/oil payments deals with Gulf nations - Xi and Saudi ForeignMinister ''I don't see any contradiction in working with China & the U.S Covid in China: China downplayed the risks of Covid again as it eases restrictions. Top medical adviser Zhong Nanshan said omicron's fatality rate is in line with the flu, about 0.1% "Oil’s recent decline is due to paper markets selling into low liquidity air pockets rather than indication of a distressed physical market" - RBC... Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese oil demand may rise by 1mbpd on reopening. All else equal, this may lead to price increases of around $15/bbl. US lawmakers are laying the groundwork for a potential (potential?? oh come on pls) case of fraud against FTX Founder, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas - Bloomberg Belgian police arrested the vice-president of the European Parliament on suspicion of corruption in the interests of Qatar BlackRock: "We don't think equities are fully priced for recession." "Corporate earnings expectations have yet to fully reflect even a modest recession. This keeps us tactically underweight developed market equities." ECB will have reduced TLTRO by nearly 40%, and its balance sheet by about a tenth, and this before they even begin QT (Thread) The USD liquidity picture is NOT as tight as forecasted by many.. The RRP, TGA and IOER-deficits COUNTER a lot of the intended QT effect.. (Thread) US PPI: November PPI came in stronger than expected, increasing 0.3% m-o-m (Consensus 0.2%), 7.4& - few various bits lower but still Markets : OPEX expiry at end of the week - some $4trn of derivs expiring - to add some spice into the gamma stuff after FOMC FED, BoE, ECB and even SNB pricing been cemented at 50bps for a while (SNB slightly less), it is ALL about the language USD on weak side going into FOMC week, U.S CPI before meeting Equity markets weakened on Friday into close on the slightly higher PPI, SPX500 3920 vs 4050 (so far...market 'failed' into the large resistance zone we talked about last 2weeks...OPEX related momentum/stops above ?) Gold and XAG (in particular) rallied hard last 2weeks, the poor man's Gold, looks bullish while above $22.50 area on weekly/monthly basis Crude on lows, watch out for China re-opening The market consensus IS for a hawkish Powell, curve IS already very inverted Financial Markets Today: Quick Take – December 12, 2022 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Together with the early repayments that took place on 23 November 2022, this reduces the total amount of outstanding TLTRO III by € 795.7 billion, or 38%, further contributing to the decline of the Eurosystem's balance sheet. [2/2] https://t.co/YDG9m3Yb7o" / Twitter AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "This is the most important article I have written in a long while.. The USD liquidity picture is NOT as tight as forecasted by many.. The RRP, TGA and IOER-deficits COUNTER a lot of the intended QT effect.. More in my Sunday newsletter -> https://t.co/dLufaAMhSA https://t.co/XYoKpry1eK" / Twitter Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "One-year-ahead inflation expectations in the preliminary Michigan survey of consumers fell to their lowest level in 15 months, from 4.9% to 4.6% in December Five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged from November at 3% https://t.co/vozt57nkTN https://t.co/CoUl832rFh" / Twitter Gold at $3,000 Among Saxo's 2023 Outrageous Predictions | GoldBroker.com Sam Bankman-Fried Was Unhinged When Binance Exited FTX Investment: CZ (businessinsider.com) Belgium makes EU parliament arrests in Qatar corruption investigation (france24.com) Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/4 China's huge shadow banking system is getting squeezed by the property crisis: "1,483 real estate-related trust products were sold in 2022 through the end of September, down 69.7% from 4,891 during the same period last year." https://t.co/o6oDbtAaWm" / Twitter China's huge shadow banking system is getting squeezed by the property crisis: "1,483 real estate-related trust products were sold in 2022 through the end of September, down 69.7% from 4,891 during the same period last year." The number of flights for Beijing's Capital International Airport and Daxing International Airport roses by 63% on Sunday vs Saturday. CAAC flights at these two airports will reach 70% of the 2019 level in the near future The special relationship with the US is fertile ground for investment into the UK (cityam.com) SPX500 - and the -4- trendlione tops, just about EVERYONE speaks about Have a great start to the week Team PVM

Focus for next week - a lot going on! : FOMC meeting (expected and priced to hike 50bps), U.S CPI on Tuesday AND U.S Congress faces a 16th December deadline to pass legislation to continue funding the government (failure to do so, risks partial shutdown). ECB priced and expected to do 50bps, BoE similar and SNB approx. 40bps priced, CHINA industrial production and retail sales on Thursday too, ALL about the language from CB's In a couple of weeks, things have changed so fast that China has completely shifted to an "all in economy" mode...! Even at the ..ECB staff in pay dispute to hold talks about potential strike . Union will discuss protest action in new year if wage offer remains well below inflation rate Germany - Residential Construction Orders Down almost 30% year-on-year. More than during the Great Financial Crisis U.S Continuing Jobless Claims surge to 10-month highs Italy : With a booming black economy and the highest number of small businesses in Europe, cash is still very much king in Italy and Giorgia Meloni’s new right-wing coalition wants to keep it that way -Blackstone chief defends real estate fund amid rush for withdrawals "Capital Markets activity is not expected to pick up until 2H 2023" - Goldman Fins Conference The 30-year US mortgage rate has moved from 7.10% to 6.35% over the last month, the largest monthly decline (-75 bps) in rates since Dec 2008 TheAPR on the average U.S credit card just hit a record 19.50% Norwegian CPI YoY actual 6.5% (forecast 7%, previous 7.5%) - good news Eye watering price of £500+ per MWH for electricity this morning as UK Wind Power begins to fade, not good, as whole of Europe goes sub-zero!! Markets : Rates lower, GOLD and Silver up, while Crude 10pct down this week - something not quite right, clearly looks like a big liquidation in spec longs in crude (Bridgewater and few HF been mentioned, clearly a big fund) SPX500 keeping to 3925/4050 range, QQQ rallying a little on lower yields and liquidity USDollar a little softer following yield Clearly next week is the last very busy macro week, anything surprising from here could lead to large market swings, liquidities are already pretty light, invest/trade accordingly! Bond market points to Fed standing firm in battle against inflation | Financial Times (ft.com) Why oil has dropped despite new constraints on Russian supply | Financial Times (ft.com) Crude settles at lowest level of 2022 after European embargo and G7 price cap take effect jeroen blokland on Twitter: "#Germany - Residential Construction Orders Down almost 30% year-on-year. More than during the Great Financial Crisis. Forget about house prices; this is about #GDPgrowth and #employment! #recession coming. https://t.co/xUuN8tvNH2" / Twitter Government denies ‘race to bottom’ on regulation as Hunt loosens City rules – business live (theguardian.com) ECB staff in pay dispute to hold talks about potential strike | Financial Times (ft.com) Blackouts will trigger a people’s revolt against the new eco-tyranny (telegraph.co.uk) Blackouts will trigger a people’s revolt against the new eco-tyranny. Green policies are popular in theory, but can only be sustained if they don’t threaten our quality of life Poor performance now ‘the norm’ for some UK water firms, warns Ofwat | Water | The Guardian >>>> totally insane!! The Guardian revealed last week that the nine main water and sewerage companies had paid out £65.9bn in dividends in the last three decades. They have also taken on debts of £54bn. Italy’s right-wing goes to war with the EU to save cash (telegraph.co.uk) Blackstone chief defends real estate fund amid rush for withdrawals (cnbc.com) Investors should “look at Blackstone and say, ‘You guys have done an incredible job at deploying our capital in exactly the right geography, in exactly the right sectors with the right balance sheet,’” he added. “I think they have confidence in us.”.... let's see about that now then Central Banks Continue To Stock Up On Gold | OilPrice.com China Mulls More Property Easing at Economic Meeting Next Week - Bloomberg Swiss foreign policy: the end of privilege - SWI swissinfo.ch For many years Switzerland was able to increase its prosperity discreetly under the cover of neutrality. That’s not so easy in today’s shifting geopolitical landscape. Have a great Friday and we wish you a lovely weekend Team PVM

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer jubilantly announced Wednesday that the Georgia runoff election victory will next year end an evenly divided U.S. Senate, giving Democrats more subpoena power in committees and a quicker turnaround in approving federal and judicial appointments Why Europe’s electricity is so expensive. The main culprit is a surge in gas prices, and the market could face ‘further stress tests.’ European day-ahead electricity prices are rising toward the €400 per MWh range (France, UK, Belgium and Switzerland already above). That's crisis level territory, this could very likely become again a real issue, has DAX topped out - chart ? China may make some reasonable reductions in negative list for market access and further optimize business environment in 2023: Shanghai Securities Journal cites experts U.S Debt ceiling bomb nears as government spending balloons. Treasury will soon deploy 'extraordinary measures' to stay below the ceiling - US could see a fight over debt ceiling that rocks markets, Goldman Sachs warns, worth reading thread below though first German industry resilience in Oct Belgian CB losses, see thread below BoC Hikes 50bps to 4.25%, as expected, now they are ''considering need for further hikes to curb inflation'' (so they dropped language that said they ''needed to rise further. No matter how we slice it, it's a pivot China boosts gold reserves for the first time in over 3 years in possible attempt to diversify away from dollar, HK May End Outdoor Mask Rule, Relax Covid Tests, Report Says, Shanghai City Authorities: Will from Friday Stop Requiring Covid Test Checks for Restaurants or Entertainment Venues ECB's Kazimir: -There are numerous reasons to keep the pace tight in December -It is premature to celebrate an inflation peak -QT should be transparent, progressive, and predictablle Activist investor calls for BlackRock CEO Fink to step down over ESG ‘hypocrisy’ Winter of discontent spells electoral disaster for the Tories.Strikes are the grim result of the failure to control inflation Saxo-Steen/Gone are the days where low interest rates could foster dreams of a harmonious world. Get ready for the war economy UK government approves first new coal mine in decades despite concerns among Conservative MPs and experts about climate impact Biden admin tells Supreme Court law protecting social media companies has limits Markets : GOLD - looks like CB's are still buying the yellow metal in Q4 (ZH article below) Crude : US **total** crude oil inventories (both commercial and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) have fallen to a 36-year low, dropping below the previous bottom set in 2001, time for Biden to start buying again.. USD rangy to slightly weaker again (UST yields lower), CNH slightly higher on further re-opening talks in both China and HK Bonds generally higher again, UST 10's 3.42% - long way from the 4.30% blow off top, peak worries, peak inflation etc etc.. Time to park and wait for FOMC now Equity markets testing previously mentioned SPX500 support around 3920, overall, we continue to focus on real economy & strong balance-sheets only, rates will remain higher for longer, even if Powell sounds whatever the market wants him to sound like next week Why Europe’s electricity is so expensive – POLITICO Dollar Vs. Yuan: China Boosts Gold Reserves First Time in Over 3 Years (businessinsider.com) Debt ceiling bomb nears as government spending balloons | Fox Business US could see a fight over debt ceiling that rocks markets, Goldman Sachs warns | CNN Business >>>> Alf on Twitter: "The BIS paper on the ''$80 trillion of hidden US debt'' is making the rounds. It's really important, and it deserves the attention of every macro investor. A thread. 1/" / Twitter definitely worth reading the threa - very well put together by Alf ! excellent stuff, maybe not all that crazy outcome... Oliver Rakau on Twitter: "Impressive resilience of German industry in October. Together with strong Nov car production and slight recovery in production expectations points to lesser GDP contraction in Q4. But downtrend in orders and weak global backdrop still point to eventual industrial recession IMO. https://t.co/uVy5vysrCn" / Twitter >>> Unless the data is revised lower in a big way in Nov/Dec (still possible but looking unlikely), the doom and gloom scenarios of 2023 are going to have to be readjusted very soon Frederik Ducrozet on Twitter: "🇧🇪 Meet the Banque Nationale de Belgique whose shares are down 17% today after they warned against financial losses. The BNB is a special case, being 50% privately owned. But many central bank will make large losses in coming years - a🧵on our latest note. https://t.co/1ZZN4Vl1CJ https://t.co/4Ezg4x9Wc0" / Twitter >>>> They expect to end 2022 with €600-800 million losses, and more importantly around €9 billion losses by 2027. This would exceed their financial buffers of €7.08bn Central Banks Start Q4 Buying More Gold | ZeroHedge Activist investor calls for BlackRock CEO Fink to step down over ESG ‘hypocrisy’ (msn.com) Wells Fargo, BofA CEOs say consumer demand is cooling, recession looms (cnbc.com) nothing new really, but there you go Winter of discontent spells electoral disaster for the Tories (telegraph.co.uk) that's all they deserve really? First UK coal mine in decades approved - BBC News UK strikes 2022: Which services and sectors are striking or threatening to strike? | Evening Standard >>>> going to clearly be a big challenge going into year-end, how to resolve this issue after years of real paycuts.. Strikes will cause 'disruption and delays' over Christmas but govt approach is 'sensible', cabinet minister says | Politics News | Sky News Carvana stock collapses amid bankruptcy fears after creditor pact and another $1 price target (msn.com) this is another story that many lawyers will be busy earnings fee for a long while.. Keep digging Donald ! Trump digs deeper hole with Constitution comments | The Hill 'we' can be critical of Qatar and the world cup, but oooerhum Haute-Savoie : au Grand-Bornand, de la neige acheminée par camion fait polémique (francetvinfo.fr) why !!? The World at War - Saxo Outrageous Prediction 2023 | Saxo Markets SG (home.saxo) UberFacts on Twitter: "Cool facts about cows 🐄 https://t.co/ROZqYNScJO" / Twitter Francis Scarr on Twitter: "Once a fearsome diplomat, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is now complaining about gender-neutral toilets in Sweden https://t.co/Bbd2sUN68J" / Twitter ‘Worth the wait’: U.S. Senate Democrats celebrate a 51-seat majority with Georgia win – New Hampshire Bulletin Warren Buffett 'Loves' China’s BYD Despite Selldown, EV Executive Says | Tech News (hindustantimes.com) >>> CLEARLY a massive competitor to TSLA... DAX (EU50 similar..) Have a great day Team PVM

China relaxes #Covid-19 controls, allows home isolation for mild and asymptomatic cases - SCMP, China’s Politburo Shifts Focus to Boosting Economic Recovery BIS report : There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements. In a paper with the title “huge, missing and growing,” the BIS said a lack of information is making it harder for policy makers to anticipate the next financial crisis. In particular, they raised concern with the fact that the debt is going unrecorded on balance sheets because of accounting conventions on how to track derivative positions. Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup Switzerland could ban electric vehicle use during energy crisis: reports Sunak convinces US to double its gas exports to UK to slow sky-high energy bills German yield curve most inverted since 1992, 2s10s -21bps, recession calls from many in media U.S. lawmakers ease planned curbs on Chinese chips amid corporate pushbacks RBI Chief Das: Main Risk Is Core Inflation Remains Sticky and Elevated Markets : Crude lower again, talks of massive spec liquidation going on, Bridgewater etc, now nearly 40% below peak in June ! Chinese equities are still trading more than one full standard deviation below the historical average....this after the recent rally of nearly 30% of last 6-8 weeks.. that's how cheap they were... and still are SPX500 kep perfect scenario on charts, tested trend resistance and 200dma's and failed (see below, 3925 short-term support still vs 4'50/75 area resistance, you'd think something will give past FOMC - or maybe bothsides! USD firmer post ISM services data, which was stronger than expected, not what the market was looking for, hence reaction in risk and USDollar, the risk from here is data remains strong(er) than expected and so does inflation, and the recent bond move on basis of 'peak inflation' reverses after FOMC - that's what the market is worried about again China relaxes Covid-19 controls, allows home isolation for mild and asymptomatic cases | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing (bis.org) >>> as usual these things would weaken some risk assets sharply and create a USDollar shortage as has been many times before (1997, 2008 - after US accounting change...), the real point is many of these swaps you don't have to MtM, the rules allow you NOT to (accounting relief etc), these swaps are usually long dated swaps so you don't have to worry too much (cough..)until it's time to roll them or settle them, just pray it's going to be okay... US equity market limping at pivotal levels after sell-off extends (podbean.com) Ironic Capital on Twitter: "Latest Zoltan Pozsar: “Oil, Gold, and LCLo(SP)R”. PDF: https://t.co/d1aDCoLPqx https://t.co/5ULTljZk4S" / Twitter >>> "Russia’s decision to link gold to oil could bring gold back as a settlement medium and increase its intrinsic value sharply... Banks active in the paper gold market would face a liquidity shortfall." Germany arrests 25 accused of plotting coup - BBC News Javier Blas on Twitter: "“The lifeblood of Ludwigshafen is natural gas” The European energy crisis as seen from the German town home to the world’s largest chemical complex. (Why, would you ask, the world’s largest chemical complex is in Germany? Cheap Russian natural gas) https://t.co/3LoTQTvvKf" / Twitter Switzerland could ban electric vehicle use during energy crisis: reports | Fox Business Sunak convinces US to double its gas exports to UK to slow sky-high energy bills (cityam.com) Fox’s Stuart Varney: Trump ‘losing iron grip’ on GOP | The Hill Renewables: Andrew Forrest’s great green energy quest (afr.com) SPX500 tested top of the range, 200dma's

OPEC+ Oil Production unchanged, implementing the hefty 2 million barrel-a-day reduction agreed at its last meeting, getting cold out there ! China may announce downgrade of Covid-19 to less strict category of Management as Early as January It took the Fed a decade to get up to their 2% inflation target and it might take the Fed another decade to get it down to their 2% inflation target Fed's Barkin: labor supply likely will remain constrained - depends what data one is looking at (see thread below) Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in unrelenting demand collapse Morgan Stanley upgrades China Stocks on reopening bullishness..raised to overweight, had been equal-weight since January 2022..Recovery ‘set to be bumpy’ amid earnings pressure, Wang says >> remember on the way down in price, many said they became uninvestable, now price action has changed, guess what...! others will do the same... CBI warns UK faces 'lost decade' of growth unless Rishi Sunak gets 'serious' APPL bought back its own stock to the tune of $90bn in Q3, while investing $11bn in its business, net balance-sheet worth down $50bn.. Markets : TLT just registered its second-largest inflow in the history of the ETF on Friday. Is this a sign that the worst is over for US sovereign duration? NO, in fact it looks overdone now, the UST curve dec 2023/24 now nearly 140bp inverted, very punchy 'recession calls' SPX500 stable, after choppy NFP action, ended up unchanged, China stocks up very decently again on hope reopening gaining traction (base case remain they have and they will reopen, not if but when..) >>> slowdown is positive for stocks, when markets chase liquidity, as it is now !... >>> the BIG question is when does risk starts to flip from chasing liquidity to weaker fundamentals, depends on who you listen, and all a lot harder to call if you leveraged of course, best case for now remains weaker macro data in Q1 2023 in the US USDollar still weak, although USDJPY looks to have done enough for now, a good 10% move down from BoJ interventions near 149JPY, time to cover USDJPY shorts..>>> never underestimate BoJ.... CNH slowly catching up...as it should on reopening calls, now 6.9400.. AUDNZD done enough in short-term!..EURCHF (chsart) preparing a move up into year-end? (GBPCHF similar pattern...) Crude stable just above $80 WTI Next big rendez-vous are next week with all FOMC, ECB, BoE and SNBN meetings Financial conditions continue to ease, ease, ease (podbean.com) and few nice charts here as well from Saxo PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Hu Xijin 胡锡进 on Twitter: "China is lifting lockdowns,which will increase chaos in a short time.But such transition won’t be long.I estimate by the Chinese New Year,new adaptability will emerge among people, confidence will be on a new foundation & Chinese economy will usher in a relatively strong rebound." / Twitter IT sure got interesting last few days... 2s dropped about 25/30bps - whole curve lower - usd and risk same - not even an apparent strong NFP - in fact you could argue some parts of it was weak - depends what you want to look at ! Interesting few details about US employment data … https://twitter.com/macroalf/status/1598697103613513728?s=48&t=XPCrgH_0zBDvLaTZtdwR1A Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "$TLT just registered its second-largest inflow in the history of the ETF. Is this a sign that the worst is over for US sovereign duration? https://t.co/QPQumzRvkh" / Twitter Manufacturing orders from China down 40% in demand collapse (cnbc.com) Apple supplier Foxconn expects to see full production resume at a COVID-hit China plant around late December to early January, after unrest at a major iPhone factory in Zhengzhou Callum Thomas on Twitter: "Pricing pressures easing... https://t.co/WueXDlYnV2" / Twitter Ukraine updates: G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in – DW – 12/05/2022 UK economy to shrink in 2023, risks 'lost decade': CBI | Reuters UK facing 2023 recession; oil higher after Opec+ sticks with output cuts – business live (theguardian.com) Peter Stefanovic on Twitter: "I have never in my life heard so much bull**** spouted by a member of the Government in a single interview https://t.co/Mg47bvZBcM" / Twitter Winter energy woes cast shadow over Swiss ski season - SWI swissinfo.ch Bargains begin luring big banks back to China bets for 2023 | Reuters Price action become positive; many will start chasing again.. North Carolina county under curfew after power station attack, FBI investigating | Reuters Apple Stock Buybacks (Quarterly) (ycharts.com) EURCHF preparing a move up into year-end? (GBPCHF similar..) Have a great start to the week Team PVM

FED officials keep making the points of no cuts next year, markets not listening (Thread) - Will Powell insist on it today ?>>> The buck has had the worst month in over 10years, down 4-5% pverall (USDCNH lagging got obvious reasons, catch up on reopening next ?), terminal rate 5% (priced in) on the basis of #peakinflation, peak rates and thus peak USDdollar that we talked about extensively 6-8weeks ago, the only thing that looks a little farfetched (for now) is the amount of cuts priced in for 2023/24, let's see what J.Pow has to say later on, markets expects him to be remain fairly hawkish overall FT - Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself, Stakes in hundreds of buyout groups’ companies have been bundled into investments with strong credit ratings >>> CDO's all over again - markets will never learn, worst credit repackaged into so called safe investment... ECB probably 50bps now in Dec after weaker German inflation data >>> overall HICP will surprise to the downside form here, with a core stable around 4.5/5%.. In the UK though, BRC survey suggests #food price inflation hit a new high of 12.4% in November, up from 11.6% in Oct, BOE's Pill: Our base case does not involve rates reaching 5.25%, expects UK inflation to start falling next year, assuming natural gas prices stabilise and then start to drop The Dutch government will buy and close 3,000 farms to comply with EU climate targets… FTX told customers to deposit money by wiring funds to Alameda's bank accounts, according to a Bloomberg report Credit Suisse hitting all-time lows below 3CHF, as CDS hit an all-time high.. Stoltenberg reaffirms Ukraine will one day enter NATO Elon Musk reportedly delays the launch of Twitter Blue again, this time to spite Apple Markets : HSI has rallied about 10pct last 3days, and some 25% off late October lows... LONG-term chart below to put things in perspective...''CCP won't be able to lock people down for much longer..'', when (not if) China (at least partly) re-opens, the markets locally have room to fly higher..together with commodities etc etc Overall rates in long-end may well be peaking on peak inflation, however, Central Banks will have to reduce actively their balance-sheet next, the FED mentioned before that about $2trn in on the cards during 2023, and this will matter for some parts of the markets... SPX500 'stalled' in our previously mentioned resistance zone 4'050 initially, then much bigger levels around 4'150, short-term support around 3'925 for today Global #Bonds add record $2.8 Trillion in market value this month.... #peakworries ... USDollar dropped about 5% in November, worst month in 10years, #peakinflation = #peakusdollar ... all happened pretty quickly, however markets should be a little careful from here, as Powell is NO Bernanke, inflation is still very high and employment is still very firm too, so he's unlikely to budge on his views and may remind markets that cuts already priced in for 2023/24 are wrong Crude remains near lows too, 4th Dec meeting - OPEC+ decision to hold virtual meeting signals little likelihood of policy change, cap on Russian oil awaited - source ALL about Powell now, NFP Friday, one more U.S CPI before the December meetings for which Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Fed officials keep doubling down on their hawkish talk, but markets keep shrugging them off. While Fed members say again and again they're not going to cut rates next year, traders are still pricing in more than two rate cuts by the end of 2023. https://t.co/sddnIgHlVp https://t.co/V9tJXzkcrf" / Twitter Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "Looks like Credit Suisse is on the verge of becoming Default Suisse. https://t.co/z97FyBiAQs" / Twitter St. Louis Fed President James Bullard addresses inflation, interest rates and recession risk in MarketWatch interview (msn.com) Collateralised fund obligations: how private equity securitised itself | Financial Times (ft.com) The US hospital staffing company Envision Healthcare, owned by the private equity firm KKR, has the lowest possible junk-grade credit rating and is at risk of bankruptcy, according to Moody’s. But an ownership stake in Envision, bundled with stakes in hundreds of other private equity-owned companies, has been transformed into a financial security marketed to ordinary savers as a safe investment with a stellar credit rating Compulsory purchase will be an option to close down farms: ministers - DutchNews.nl Phil Rosen on Twitter: "(1/5) FTX told customers to deposit money by wiring funds to Alameda's bank accounts, according to a Bloomberg report. (@BusinessInsider) https://t.co/ISbayRvPYu" / Twitter I mean really?... red flags all over and no-one cared? astonishing, due diligence anyone? ECB’s Christine Lagarde: Further crypto regulation ‘absolute necessity’ following FTX collapse (yahoo.com) >>> why do we need a collapse to bring regulations !!? German inflation eased in November but too soon for 'all-clear' (globalbankingandfinance.com) Bleak winter ahead as inflationary headwinds continue (brc.org.uk) Global Bonds Add Record $2.8 Trillion in Market Value This Month - Bloomberg Medical tech company partners with Google to improve breast cancer screenings | The Hill Stoltenberg says Putin is using winter as climate weapon (news.am) Former Chinese president Jiang Zemin dies aged 96 | ITV News Elon Musk delays Twitter Blue launch again, this time to spite Apple | Fortune Jeff Bezos: This is what you are going to regret at 80 (cnbc.com) It’s not what you do and mess up, it’s what you don’t do that will plague you when you are old and looking back on your life. Have a great week - Back next Wednesday Team PVM

FED chair Jerome Powell will be speaking this week on Wednesday starting at 1:30PM ET, and Central Bankers taking today : ECB Knot, De Cos, McCaul, Lagarde and Nagel, then Fed Williams & Bullard later on in our day ECB : all eyes on the Nov flash HICP data on Wed, exp. unch core inflation at 5%, risks bit more balanced, unless lower 75bps in Dec still very likely CHINA riots, protest, clashes in Shanghai, anti Xi calls, it's not quietening down. Multiple cities, different reasons for protests, economy in a slump, global demand down, pretty tough set of things to control... >>>> going to be an 'interesting' few days-weeks in China, eventually can work both ways.. all gets worse or someone loses faith, buys few billions doses of foreing vaccines and move on.. Late-cycle economies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - the #CANNS - that are seeing their housing markets suffer most - with the ASR CANNS House Price Index falling at an annualised rate of -14.9% over the 3mos months to October/thread On Friday, PBOC cut RRR by 25bps, woved to step up implementation of prudent monetary policy ''we will not resort to flood-like stimulus'' >>>> more debt, lower rates in a broken market will most likely not help much, the whole investment model in question (broken), but they know nothing else, which probably means they will stick to the same as they cannot back down.. JAPAN inflation higher last Friday, JPN likely to continue to sell Treasuries, which is widening rates differential, won't help but they will most likely continue too >>> massive amount of debt across the world fuelled massive investment bubbles last many years Hedge fund Rokos warns that sterling is ‘vulnerable’ to further fall, Brexit, deglobalisation and pandemic deal bigger shock to terms of trade, investors told >>>> that's the other big Brexit financed by massive debt increase, the bill has turned up too, they always do in the end, ridiculous populist ideas leading to poorer folks to pay the bills - ZERO accountability with politicians or central bankers, why?.. When prices surge, people can afford less, businesses struggle to control costs and, in extreme cases, political revolutions are born ESG fab (for investor...funds did well though...) - Elephants in the sustainable funds room -- why green funds fail There are millions of orphaned gas and oil wells leaking methane in the U.S. — and plugging them will cost billions. Watch the full video.. China is spending as much if not more on PCR testing as in education, totally crazy what the CCP is imposing on its people, no wonder they are becoming a lot more vocal !! Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT Markets : Crude erases 2022 gains on recessions talsk, economic slowdown accentuated by China unrests again The huge U.S equity net short is GONE, but market is far from long, skew suggesting funds are switching into hedgingdownside via puts again USDJPY possibly breaking down/CROSSJPY's rallies sold into on possible risk aversion after this big short-covering rally in Equity markets last few weeks, USDCNH higher on specific local worries 10y UST yields 3.63% - that's a pretty decent move last few weeks!, which helped Eq clearly, the thing that could worry markets again is the Fed pivot, isn't a pivot but a pause.. which seems the most likely scenario for now (unless inflation goes down properly and/or unemployment goes decently higher, the FED won't blink, and some 150bps of cuts priced in already for 2023-24 Protests against strict lockdown hit Shanghai, other China cities - Nikkei Asia Danson Cheong on Twitter: "Covid control in Beijing has broken down - a thread: On Friday night I received dreaded notification that one of the residents in my housing block had been picked up as a positive case in community screening and we might be going into lockdown. 1/N https://t.co/KotPeDVirn" / Twitter Selina Wang on Twitter: "This is an extraordinary, historic moment in China Protests are breaking out across the country-from Beijing, to elite colleges, to other major cities, and even far flung places Shocking to hear people chanting for Xi to step down This is people past their breaking point @cnn https://t.co/6lccNGIycT" / Twitter CNBC International on Twitter: "There is a 30% probability that China reopens earlier, says Hui Shan of Goldman Sachs. https://t.co/7iUvEddzaY" / Twitter About a year ago every bank was euphoric about 2023, consensus S&P forecast was above 5,100. Now :..... every bank is gloomy and downbeat, with the most optimistic predicting a flat S&P at best, some see S&P dropping to 3000 >>>> all you need is a good valuation model and manager! Apple has a huge problem at Foxconn's iPhone factory in China | CNN Business Ian Harnett on Twitter: "It is the ‘late-cycle’ economies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden - the #CANNS - that are seeing their housing markets suffer most - with the ASR CANNS House Price Index falling at an annualised rate of -14.9% over the three months to October. A RECORD PACE! https://t.co/OgCmpU9qNX" / Twitter Hedge fund Rokos warns that sterling is ‘vulnerable’ to further falls | Financial Times (ft.com) Why Inflation Heats Up and Is So Hard to Cool Down - Bloomberg Elephants in the sustainable funds room -- why green funds fail (yahoo.com) Pure (almost)marketing scams, as often discussed before, as usual investors are fooled '''I have always been amazed by how many funds groups seem to be led by theri marketing departments rather than their investment departments'' Plugging methane-leaking oil, gas wells in the U.S. will cost billions (cnbc.com) China’s steampunk covid response | The Economist China’s steampunk covid response - How to read the country’s confusing pandemic-policy changes StockMKTNewz - Evan on Twitter: "Here's Bank of America's top 10 trades for 2023 ⬇️" / Twitter 1 - Long 30-year Treasuries 2 - Yield curve steepening 3 - Short US dollar, long emerging markets assets, long EM distressed bonds, long Korean won, long Mexican peso 4 - Long China stocks 5 - Long gold, long copper 6 - Barbell long IG tech bonds with distressed HY debt in Asia 7 - Long global industrials and small caps 8 - Short US tech 9 - Short private equity 10 - Long EU banks, short Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Swedish banks (1) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🛢 🇺🇸 #Oil Erases This Year’s Gains as China Unrest Flares - Bloomberg *The US oil benchmark shed all of this year’s gains as unrest in China over Covid Zero curbs rattled an already-fragile market that’s beset by demand concerns. https://t.co/BAhojcEhJS" / Twitter Norway Became an EV Paradise, Now It's Imposing a Weight Tax and Bringing Back the VAT - autoevolution .... 10-15years ago...weren't electric cars meant to be the little 2-seater we were all going to use in town to do our shopping and/or small distances? ...yups, not an SUV and/or 6seater limousine weighing 2.5tons or more... USDJPY broke down, corrected back to trend line last week and here we are lower again Have a great start to the week Team PVM

FOMC Minutes : peak usd, peak inflation, peak 10y yields confirmed), A "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers agreed it would "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, the meeting minutes showed. Traders had expected the Fed minutes would affirm officials' softening stance after recent data showed a moderation in economic conditions >>> Powell speaks on 30th Nov - if he is not happy about easier financial conditions, he has an opportunity to say something then BoC Gov Maclem says expects policy rate will need to rise further And the U.S is in contraction Mfg PMI 47.6, Exp. 50.0, Last 50.4 Services PMI 46.1, Exp. 48.0, Last 47, Initial jobless claims hit the highest since mid-August as well.. In Japan, Nov factory activity shrank at quickest pace in 2 years Sunak backs down against BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators Korean CB hikes by only 25bps, growth to slow down sharply in 2023 (they were 1st major CB to hike in Asia in the cycle, another sign-confirmation of peak rates) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant, Apple supplier apologises for ‘technical error’ after violent clashes between workers and police Renault is buying solar power from Voltalia over 15 years in what is France’s biggest renewable corporate power-purchase agreement Markets : SPX500 levels remain the same - see below comment from GS on CTA's activity! The price of Crude Oil is now, let's call if FLAT over 2022.... and energy stocks are up 65pct.. USDollar took a very decent tumble post FOMC minutes (LOW liquidities ahead of Turkey day).. EURUSD 1.0430+ key, USDCHF below 0.9450 area again, USDJPY 139 and below big statement, CABLE 1.2020+ all need to hold to keep USD bears in charge (USDCNH lagging on new covid cases), AUDUSD bullish as long as 0.6675+, and as noted recently the KIWI bird is flying GOLD has room for higher into year-end, tech levels towards 1850$ should be tested, PLAT also interesting, while XAGUSD 22+ would be very interesting for the bulls! Germany bond market sending recession alarm too, 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in about 30years, now -22bp UST's and rates in general, we looked for and got for #peakrates, meaning higher for longer, not necessarily looking for any cuts in 2023, until, and only until employment and inflation ease quite a bit, we are getting NFP and U.S CPI ahead of next meeting, market remains fixated and cemented on 50bps for next meeting, things could change dramatically though in early 2023, U.S CPI could see some pretty large correction lower Can CTAs help us overshoot? Goldman writes that medium term CTA momentum is back in positive as we are above the 3965 level. They projected "$6b of S&P to buy in flat tape over next 5 trading sessions but that number will grow meaningfully post today’s close". Longer term momentum flips at 4054. They also write: "Another key technical level to keep up on your screens in 200dma of 4062. Would not be surprised if mkt makes a run towards 200dma tomorrow but will be difficult to break through it." Mikael Sarwe on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Core PCE consensus above target the foreseeable future & yet market discounts 125 bp cuts mid-23 to mid-24. Lower yields, weaker USD, higher equities & tighter credit spreads since Fed meeting = fin conditions easier than normal. Are markets forcing Fed back to 75 bp in Dec? https://t.co/0rVU5A1ToF" / Twitter as per above comment, that is what I am referring to, as long as inflation does not come down, market maybe a little ahead of itself and/or you can say that a lot is ALREADY price in for 2023/24 in terms of cuts Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇩🇪 German Bond Curve Inverts Most in 30 Years in Growth Warning - Bloomberg *Link: https://t.co/CnC3mom0cm https://t.co/oZ2b4CsSGZ" / Twitter Shares rise, U.S. Treasury yields drop as Fed minutes suggest slower rate hikes (yahoo.com) Half of variable mortgage holders with fixed payments have hit trigger rate: BoC - National | Globalnews.ca Hitting a trigger rate means a mortgage holder is no longer paying down any principal on their loan and is only covering interest — a key point that can prompt the lender to force a homeowner to make additional payments Credit Suisse Craters To Record Low After Revealing Staggering $88 Billion Bank Run | ZeroHedge yeps... Sunak backs down to BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators (cityam.com) quite right - do not mess with your own CB (or any CB for that matter) South Korean central bank slows rate hikes, sharply downgrades 2023 growth - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Revealed: Tory peer Michelle Mone secretly received £29m from ‘VIP lane’ PPE firm | Michelle Mone | The Guardian unreal china: China expands lockdowns as COVID-19 cases hit daily record - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant | Financial Times (ft.com) China expands lockdowns as COVID cases soar to daily record high | World News | Sky News some pretty unreal scenes out there, folks unhappy to be locked down... can you blame them? Voltalia signs a 350 megawatt solar power supply contract with Renault Group to support its energy transition (yahoo.com) have a great day Team PVM

Q3 2022 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank #GOLD purchases (thread-chart), China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence. Buying of metal is at its fastest pace since the 1960s Jerome Powell's speech at the Brookings Institute on November 30th seems to have only been announced yesterday. Notably, it is just two days before the Fed's pre-FOMC comms blackout begins. Fed’s Mester wants more progress on #inflation before ending interest rate hikes. Real impact of #Fed hikes likely bigger than what target rate implies, Daly says and finally, "The Fed could move to pause its rate hikes as soon as next month in our view" - Mike Wilson/MS Producer prices in Germany jumped 34.5% in October compared to the same month a year earlier, the country's national statistical office Destatis announced on Monday. The producer inflation rate was down from 45.8% recorded a month earlier...On a monthly basis, the producer price index slid 4.2% in October #peakinflation confirmed Rishi Sunak rules out Swiss-style trade deal with EU, UK's public borrowing rises by less than expected., October's figure of £13.5bn is much less than £22bn forecasts from economists BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan. Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support Fund Managers Are Turning Ever More Pessimistic on the US Dollar. Short dollar positions are at most since July 2021: CFTC data..“The dollar’s exceptionalism premium is receding:” Bromhead China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October, Beijing shuts parks, museums as China's COVID cases rise Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari said whole idea of cryptocurrency is “nonsense” after implosion of FTX revealed industry’s shortcomings: "Not useful 4 payments. No inflation hedge. No scarcity. No taxing authority. Just a tool of speculation & greater fools." Germany says it has enough gas for the next TWO winters - whaoo Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley agree on the direction for stocks next year: they see substantially more downside before equities find a floor and return to where they are now Humans mined 700 million tons of copper over the last 5,000 years. The same 700 million tons will need to be mined over the next 22 years to meet energy transition targets using wind, solar, & electric vehicles A large number of tankers which previously sailed under European Union flags, such as Cyprus’ and Malta’s, are leaving those registers as a result of the sanctions on Russian oil transportation BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue Markets: Crude dropped 3usd on some WSJ story that Saudi Arabia was going to boost output, later denied and back to square one on the day. Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine (thread) USDollar trade and budget deficit and peak rates insight, always tricky, but markets are slowly worried of a weaker $ into 2023, #peakUSDollar with peak UST yields in play..USDCNH holding up, stalling USD downside, USDCHF held/back above that monthly chart/trend support around 0.9400/50 Equity markets rangy in this Thanksgiving week, ARKK related type names struggling on yet more crypto worries and BTC price breaking down. SPX500 3900/20 support vs 4050/85 resistance BTC breaking down <16K, it was 8k in early 2020 before all the covid QE checks, ETH was <$200, not saying it goes there, just to put things in perspective Bond vols continue to slow, MOVE index, peak 10y yields most likely seen around 4.3%, all about FOMC in Dec and beware final signal on 30th Nov from Powell Fed's Mester wants more progress on inflation before ending interest rate hikes (cnbc.com) Future-of-Copper.pdf (ihsmarkit.com) OpenSquareCapital on Twitter: "Excerpts from Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine. #oil #COM #EFT #OOTT https://t.co/ER6tQj8AKT" / Twitter BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan | Forexlive BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue | Forexlive China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence - Nikkei Asia There was some huge CB buying in Q3 2022 FTX : was apparently a $32bn company, they never had any board meetings, many of the emplyees were fake, the Bahamas govt was behind the $600 hack, customer funds were used to buy SBG real estate and advisors now saying fraud is far worse than Enron..... tainting the whole crypto world, coins, other exchanges all to possibly be questioned...the story is not over, probably put crypto back into the ice age for many investors.. Op-Ed: Could DCG be the catalyst for max pain in the crypto markets? (cryptoslate.com) ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on Twitter: "The Alameda pitch deck will go down in history right alongside the LTCM brochure. https://t.co/JqdIihj4Ua" / Twitter AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "Q3 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank gold purchases https://t.co/XWNhku5XBI" / Twitter chart What did COP27 achieve? (qz.com) Switzerland and UK sign trade conformity agreement - SWI swissinfo.ch Fund Managers Are Piling On Dollar Shorts on Peak Fed Bets - Bloomberg China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Fed's Powell to speak on economy on Nov. 30, two days before blackout | Morningstar Tankers are ditching EU flags | eKathimerini.com Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support | Reuters Bear Stock Markets Will Last Through 2023, Goldman Sachs Says - Bloomberg Infinity Q founder, once claiming $3 billion assets, pleads guilty to fraud (yahoo.com) Have a great day Team PVM

Goldman Sees China Rebound Coming as Covid Policy Fuels Optimism, economy to gain momentum after initial reopening impact passes, sentiment improves since Beijing tweaks Covid, property rules "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This".....“A complete failure of corporate controls”: Read the wildest parts of the new FTX bankruptcy filing - astonishing - what happened to due diligence...Singapore state investor Temasek has written off its $275mn stake in cryptocurrency company FTX, saying its trust in former chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried appeared ‘misplaced’ Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says we should stop thinking that the U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation, US inflation is unacceptably high Fed's Bullard: Even "Dovish" Policy Assumptions Require Further Rate Increases 5 to 5.25% >> he is the über hawk and data dependent, see Phily Fed below.. Is Green Hydrogen the Fuel of the future? Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020) As expected, The UK announced its biggest tax hikes and spending cuts in 10 years. In his autumn statement, chancellor Jeremy Hunt laid out a £55 billion ($66 billion) “belt tightening” plan for the next five years that will seek to lower government debt >>> ''what's not great for folks, may be good for UK markets'', UK gilts and GBP taken this pretty well The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly manufacturing index fell to negative 19.4 in November from negative 8.7 in October, with the gauge of employment showed continued growth in hiring but at its weakest pace since June 2020 Japan's inflation has hit its highest levels in 40 years, with prices jumping up more than three and a half percent in the year to October >>> BoJ still YCC'ing...so maybe the plan is to strengthen the JPY instead.. Markets: The next few HUGE events are on 14th and 15th of Dec, when Fed, SNB, BoE and the ECB will set policy/hike, we will get another NFP and set of US inflation before that, ISM next week be interesting after weak Phily Fed yesterday The 2s10s yield curve hasn’t been this inverted in the last 25 years. The 30-year US mortgage rate moved from 7.08% to 6.61% over the last week, the largest one-week decline (-47 bps) in rates since November 1981 >>> peak worries, peak rates as long as debt remains under control !! like the UK is showing..it will be tough but it's a must The global stock market rally could be about to meet recession reality..is something that you read fair bit about now already in article and research documents, markets reached overbought conditions, momentum slowing as we get into these huge SPX500 technical levels 4'050/4'150 resistance area, 200dma is right in the middle aroun 4'075 and the 100dma is aroiund 3'910 which is exactly where we held yesterday.. USD came back a bit on Bullard comment yesterday but given weaker Phily Fed (employment data..) and if other data comes in softer between now and Dec FOMC, USD likely to come under further pressure again. GBP going just fine, AUDUSD 0.6770 Fibo lev, more around China reopening or not (USDCNH etc). USDCHF popped its head above that big 09450/.9500 area, key are on monthly charts, probably on EURCHF buying mainly.. Markets likely to trade rangy/low vols (bar any new news.) till mid-December and all the CB meetings, macro rates side of things will be awaiting all these mostly priced in hikes Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020) https://t.co/Of6m4uUPrY" / Twitter chart Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Foreign selling in March 2020 triggered a US Treasury market blow-up, destabilizing highly leveraged carry trades hedge funds were doing, similar to the recent UK bond market blow-up. Japan in September sold the large amount of US Treasuries EVER to fund its defense of the Yen... https://t.co/fv3ACyHCqC" / Twitter chart Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "More yield curve inversions happening today. The Fed funds rate is now higher than 30-year yields since the Covid recession. 62% of the entire Treasury curve is now inverted. This only supports our bearish case for US stocks. https://t.co/QM2P6Sz76a" / Twitter chart Frédéric Rochat: «Energy Independence Has Never Been More Relevant» (finews.asia) OK enough talks, actions required, in ALL countries, the 'not in my back yard' must sort of stop, it's too easy to push the problem to someone else, some other country etc Philadelphia Fed factory activity index drops unexpectedly (yahoo.com) Billionaire Ray Dalio: stop thinking U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war | Fortune Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation (yahoo.com) Fed's Bullard: Even "dovish" policy assumptions require further rate increases | Reuters Japan's inflation hits 40-year high (yahoo.com) October data also showed a yearly jump in energy costs by over 15%. Food items were 88% more costly than a year before, led by alcoholic drinks Poll reveals public support for Brexit at all-time low | Politics News | Sky News ''let's take back control...'' "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This" | ZeroHedge this will soon be a must watch on Netflix or whatever provider FTX’s new CEO is steering the bankruptcy with experienced help (qz.com) Is Green Hydrogen The Fuel Of The Future? This CEO Is Betting On It (forbes.com) Pompeo dings Trump: GOP needs leader who doesn’t claim ‘victimhood’ | The Hill FDA says lab-grown meat is safe for human consumption (cnbc.com) not going to rush just yet.. Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices | AP News From income tax to pensions: What the Autumn statement means for you (yahoo.com) Have a great day Team PVM

UK's Jeremy Hunt to unveil £54bn of tax rises and spending cuts. The chancellor will insist to MPs that his autumn statement puts the UK on a "balanced path to stability" >>>> The OBR statement is at 2:30 GMT is very important for Gilts and GBP.. (either way) After two years of Democratic control of both the House and the Senate, the power dynamic in Washington will now shift Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Wednesday he’s open to reducing the level of interest rate increases to half a percentage point in December >>> 50bps in Dec is no surprise to anyone, priced in by markets. The likes of JPM look for 50bps in Dec, followed by a couple of 25bps in Q1 2023, with falling inflation and rising unemployment, so they expect Fed to ease policy from early 2024 >>> pretty extreme inversion! essentially, they are agreeing to what the curve saying in markets, 150 over 2 years …with 110 or so hikes priced . Quite funky Goldman Sachs just increased its forecast for the FED's terminal rate to 5-5.25% from 4.75-5.0% Once valued at US$10 billion, crypto empire behind Genesis caught up in FTX turmoil U:S Strategic Petroleum Reserve drained to March 1984 levels U.S. retail sales rise solidly; fourth-quarter GDP estimates raised Markets : MOVE Index - vol decline key for markets, vol decline has been huge since mid-October, helping overall market volatily lower, geo-politics (hopefully) easing still, although rocked in Poland this week, although note the index has moved back up a little last week or so Equity markets stopped in their track with the Poland news, but not much lower it's fair to say, SPX500 4'050 and 4'150 huge area/resistance medium-term still, acting as potential target for markets, support 3'925 area (bombed out markets, ARKK, non-profitable index etc recovered sharply from the mid-October lows (top in bond vols, peak inflation, peak USD..) USDollar remains on backfoot, GBP looking a little perky still going into UK Budget today, CABLE actually hit a 1.2020+ this week already, we've come a long way since we called for a low in GBP (after Kamikaze budget-overshoot etc), but perhaps 1.25-1.30 CABLE is not out of question if the USDollar remain soft into year-end Markets prone to wild short-term moves though still, markets remain pretty 'illiquid^' underneath going into Thanksgiving, World Cup, CB Dec meetings including SNB and year-end stuff - It WILL remain funky, though bond market vol lower helping, in many ways the bigger potentials move should come from China re-opening /how fast, going into 2023 Goldman says it sees a slightly longer string of 25 bps increases in '23 that will take the funds rate above 5% in May >>>>> Reasons: 1) Fiscal tightening has run its course 2) Inflation could remain "uncomfortably high" 3) Market overreactions prematurely ease financial conditions Autumn Statement 2022 live: Jeremy Hunt to unveil £54bn of tax rises and spending cuts (telegraph.co.uk) Republicans win control of House of Representatives in US midterm elections, projections show | US News | Sky News U.S. retail sales rise solidly; fourth-quarter GDP estimates raised | Reuters Republicans win U.S. House majority, setting stage for divided government | Reuters Fed's Waller says he's open to a half-point hike at December meeting (cnbc.com) Once valued at US$10 billion, crypto empire behind Genesis caught up in FTX turmoil | The Straits Times Jan. 6 panel hits back at Pence over new interview | The Hill A Lab-Grown Meat Startup Gets the FDA’s Stamp of Approval | WIRED Former Berkshire Exec Asks for Leniency in Elizabeth Holmes' Sentence (businessinsider.com) Reports of China reopening have translated to sharp stock market rises; are they sustainable? (thebull.com.au) Home Seller Offers a Free Tesla to Attract Buyers as New Zealand Prices Tumble - Bloomberg AUDUSD key Fibo level as well around 0.6770