Week ahead : could be quite eventful week with the amount of bonds going under the hammer, 54bn 3y, 42bn of 10's and 25bn of 30's + geopolitics which are getting more intense! US intends further strikes on Iran-backed groups, national security adviser says Powell tells it on '60 minutes' FED is wary of cutting rates too soon, same message than last Thursday' , he sees 3 cuts in 2024 relative to the 6 the market has priced in.... and forward looking indicators are through the roof lately, semis (obviously Ai related), but still, recession ? how about ISM manuf near 60 this summer ?.. . “The U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy… We're borrowing from future generations,” says Fed chief Jerome Powell Bayer trades well below book value AfD party continues to fall in the polls after tens of thousands protest in Germany against the far right . In the latest polls, the far-right AfD party is only at 19% and 20% respectively way below ATH Apple has bought back $619 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 492 companies in the S&P 500 >>> Chinese investors are (have been) hammering their own stocks to buy Mag 7 Michelle O'Neill: Balancing act ahead for a historic first minister Paris votes in favour of €18-per-hour parking fees for SUVs SNB total sight deposits w.e. 2 February CHF 481.2 bn vs CHF 472.2 bn prior Senate releases $118 billion bipartisan aid proposal for Israel, Ukraine, border security Big Tech boosts profits by $10bn with accounting change to server life estimate Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta have all shifted estimates of how long they will use technical equipment Eurozone Jan 2024 HCOB services PMI 48.4 vs 48.3 flash (previous 48.8) Trump suggests he would consider a tariff upward of 60% on all Chinese imports if reelected Markets : Chinese stocks volatile/can't catch a break (Trump), Mag 7's went up like 'meme' stocks last week, USDJPY about to test BoJ again near 150jpy area (might be worth trying to short a few crossjpy's again 160+eurjpy etc) , SPX500 overdone, but we've been here before, below 48000 area will only worry the bulls and big week for bonds 200dma 10's UST around 4.10 (we keep in mind 4.10-4.,20% yield resistance, well beyond this could well now be the trigger for a correction in QQQ. USD overall stronger, after big payroll number, revisions or not, it was big, including average earnings Powell insists the Fed will move carefully on rate cuts, with probably fewer than the market expects ( msn.com ) Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript - CBS News The US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, starting off 2024 with a bang ( msn.com )  ( spglobal.com ) Eurozone downturn at its weakest since July 2023 China Stocks Post More Wild Swings Amid Beijing Stability Vow ( yahoo.com ) China Gloom Spurs Record $2 Billion Rush Into Foreign Stock ETFs - Bloomberg Big Tech boosts profits by $10bn with accounting change to server life estimate ( ft.com ) totally insane... Incredible: Amazon's AWS revenue in 2023 ($91 billion) was higher than the revenue of 463 companies in the S&P 500. From $3 billion to $91 billion in 10 years (>40% annualized growth) US launches more strikes against Houthis in Yemen - BBC News US intends further strikes on Iran-backed groups, national security adviser says | Reuters Middle East Conflict Reshapes India-Iran Relations - Geopolitical Futures Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine ( cnbc.com ) Senate releases $118 billion aid proposal for Israel, Ukraine ( cnbc.com ) Michelle O'Neill: Balancing act ahead for a historic first minister - BBC News Holger Zschaepitz on X: "OUCH! #Germany's #Bayer is trading at only 83% of its book value. In other words, if the company were to be sold today at book value, shareholders would make a profit of 17%. Or to put it another way: the core business is viewed negatively by the financial markets. https://t.co/EAMkGL21FR " / X ( twitter.com ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "AfD party continues to fall in the polls after tens of thousands protest in Germany against the far right. In the latest polls, the far-right AfD party is only at 19% and 20% respectively way below ATH. https://t.co/NUqZD8JvaW " / X ( twitter.com ) When dead children are just the price of doing business, Zuckerberg’s apology is empty | Carole Cadwalladr | The Guardian Market cap alone went up 250bn last week, nothing to see here Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella caps a decade of change and tremendous growth ( qz.com ) Swiss healthcare costs rise steeply - SWI swissinfo.ch But apparently there is little or no inflation.. Paris votes in favour of €18-per-hour parking fees for SUVs ( thelocal.fr ) Trump suggests he would consider a tariff upward of 60% on all Chinese imports if reelected ( msn.com ) EURUSD

US manufacturing output hits highest level since October 2022 Barry Sternlicht just gave a VERY thoughtful interview about the growing troubles in commercial real estate, '' the office market has an existential crisis right now... it's a $3 trillion dollar asset class that's probably worth $1.8 trillion [now]'' and WSJ - Commercial Property losses hammer banks on three continents BoE most members called for unchanged, 2 wanted a cut and 1 a hike! Polestar : the car without a rear window, and possibly bankrupt UK (probably elsewhere too) Wind Farms are overstating their output — and Consumers are paying for it (always the consumers getting the check book out..) EU agrees on an additional 50 billion euro support package for Ukraine OPEC+ will stick with oil supply cutbacks this quarter to avert a surplus and buoy prices. The group plans to decide in early March whether to extend curbs into the second quarter, the next focus for crude traders Great #Brexit chat below with Rees Mogg - totally caught out in his fantasy world Sentiment : boosted again by lower rates (first-Powell pushed back on March but market still has 140+bps of cuts for 2024) and by #META astonishing revenues, has to be said (1st dividend and $50bn share buybacks... META added $250bn of market cap after hours..just like this, driving wealth effect higher!), and AMZN #AWS mainly, AAPL slow in China but , JPN, EU, China data deflationary still while U.S data remains strong , ISM yesterday showed a rise in prices paid. First employment data of 2024 coming up! meanwhile CSI hits new lows again >>> Powell might be right, the U.S economy is actually accelerating in short-term, seems overall, w orldwide manufacturing confidence improving as factories shrug off Red Sea concerns Markets : XAGUSD - 2024 the year of the break out - chart below GOLD would appear to like life above $2K Mag 7 powering ahead, regional banks hammered last few days (commercial real estate, inadequate loan provisions & MtM losses to bond portfolios), >CSI, SHCOMP lower again, while DAX 17K again and SPX, QQQ regaining highs very easily USDollar swinging within small ranges, no great trend anywhere, CHFJPY continues to hurt many specs trying to short it, clearly BoJ YCC tweak in March will be needed to turn this cross around (SNB on hold doing little it seems) Crude down $3 because peace has apparently broken out in ME, as per Qatari media, news would appear not to confirm this though Middle East crisis live: Israel says Gaza offensive will move into Rafah ( msn.com ) British forces in the Middle East 'on high alert' for Iranian attacks as America plans retaliation for killing of three US soldiers: 'Big Lizzie warship set to be deployed to Red Sea' as fears grow regional war could erupt ( msn.com ) US manufacturing output hits highest level since October 2022 ( msn.com ) Bank of England governor sees next rate move as a cut ( msn.com ) EU agrees on €50bn aid package for Ukraine as it prepares to enter third year of war with Russia ( msn.com ) EU Leaders Agree to $54 Billion Ukraine Aid Package as Hungary’s Orban Backs Down - WSJ Apple's Q1 earnings reveal record-breaking quarter in India; CEO Tim Cook reveals big milestone ( msn.com ) Amazon (AMZN) Tops Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates ( yahoo.com ) Couldn't fail to notice in report - got to be the headline of the day ?? "AI has begun showing up in financial results - just more on expenses than revenue." Japanese bank tanks over 20% after flagging losses tied to U.S. commercial property ( msn.com ) >>>> banks with too much concentration of risk in US commercial property won't be spared! Commercial Property Losses Hammer Banks on Three Continents ( msn.com ) Biden signs order approving sanctions for Israeli settlers who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank - CBS News Triple Net Investor on X: "Barry Sternlicht just gave a VERY thoughtful interview about the growing troubles in commercial real estate: Here's what he had to say: "We have a problem in real estate. In every sector of real estate, not just office, because of the 500 basis point increase in rates that was… https://t.co/OZdrpxxBtq " / X ( twitter.com ) First car without a rear window to make its way on to British roads ( msn.com ) But... Are Polestar BANKRUPT? ( youtube.com ) ​​How UK Energy Prices Are Inflated by Wind Farms Overestimating Power Output ( bloomberg.com ) shocking... and you wonder why consumers are sceptical about 'green' energy and its costs Julius Baer: Greed and Hubris at Bahnhofstrasse ( finews.asia ) Peter Stefanovic on X: "Well this certainly caught @Jacob_Rees_Mogg off guard. Someone with first hand knowledge of the disaster Brexit has inflicted on UK farmers. @MrDavidCatt1 brilliantly schools Rees-Mogg who is left floundering in the sea of his own fantasy https://t.co/xnrtym3vpy " / X ( twitter.com ) Brilliant! #brexit SILVER - 2024 - the year of the break out

Powell : data dependent as always, signal is that March pricing is a little optimistic, ''March cut not the base case', while the FOMC dropped the tightening bias in the statement, it said that cuts would not be appropriate until there was more confidence that inflation was heading back to 2%, added that the committee did expect lower rates this year - while a strong labour market would not push back the timing of the first cut, the Fed would cut faster if employment weakened >>> which confirms that payroll data is the key going forward >>> Saxo : FOMC: a March QT taper could serve as an implicit rate cut/Thread(s) EU to delay new green rule in bid to appease protesting farmers. Delay to rules on setting aside land to encourage biodiversity offered as concession amid continuing protests China overtakes Japan as world's biggest vehicle exporter World's biggest iceberg on the move after 30 years Switzerland January manufacturing PMI 43.1 vs 44.5 expected, Riksbank unch, BoE will be unch all as expected - "interest rate can be cut sooner than what was expected in November" , the main question is market pricing vs path/speed of rate cuts overall, whether inflation really heads towards their 2% target and when Saxo : Yellen says Coupon issuance is also going to increase in Q2 >>> What is record-high issuance combined with QT going to do? ->steepening of the YC >> Thread The market response to a surprise loss at NY Community Bancorp, with Treasury yields plunging and a drop in broader stocks, hints at deeper concerns about commercial real estate & smaller banks German inflation slows to 2.9% in January from 3.7% in December, lowest level since June 2021 . Core CPI slows to 3.4% in Jan from 3.5% in Dec, lowest level June 2022. Energy in deflation, Energy prices dropped -2.8% YoY, Food CPI slowed to 3.8% from 4.5% in Dec US Treasury confirms spending on debt interest now larger than entire Defense Budget.... and will soon surpass entire Social Security budget Markets : JPY strengthened somewhat (softer yields overall-carry peak ?) NIKKEI noticed/short-term peak. CHF weakness didn't last long! markets not interested by swissie weakness ! Huge strain in the 2 largest African economies, Nigeria devalued the naira by about 30% (after another ~30% devaluation last June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound some 50% weaker in the black market NASDAQ : that 'bearish candle' on charts got confirmed yesterday, SPX500 support is 4800 previous tops/resistance . BofA writes: "...forward returns when sentiment hits euphoria are not appalling in a bull market. Especially when the market breadth is running at healthy levels, such as today’s." BONDS rallied, curve should steepen overall Sentiment : French/German inflation lower, a pretty low ADP employment number in the U.S, tech earnings disappointing/not meeting super high expectations more like, and some issue with few regional banks again in U.S and JPN. Technically, a few 'bearish' daily charts, momentum might change, after this huge risk rally since last October GOLD looks to be about to break higher vs no less than 6 major currencies (vs GBP, EURO, CNH, KRW, JPY and USD) OIL MARKET: Another month of huge revisions to US oil demand data/EIA Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Yellen's🍒on the cake: Coupon issuance is also going to increase in Q2. What is record-high issuance combined with QT going to do? ->🧸steepening of the YC Powell is listening, and a tapering of QT might come to hand. Link to QRA: https://t.co/AjX8YFQMyb https://t.co/8zYuTAYN8R " / X ( twitter.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸FOMC: a March QT taper could serve as an implicit rate cut. That way, the Fed would still be in line with market expectations to deliver 5 cuts by year-end, fuelling a bond rally. ⚠️That doesn't mean the Fed will deliver such cuts. However, the market will be euphoric." / X ( twitter.com ) Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could come in March, analysts say ( qz.com ) Regional banks are back in focus after NY Community Bancorp stock drops 38% in one day | CNN Business Nick Timiraos on X: "Rates unchanged FOMC statement gets a big rewrite. Tightening bias gone, but in a way that says a cut isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate” to cut “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably" to 2% https://t.co/Rzs7fFE8hv " / X ( twitter.com ) China overtakes Japan as world's biggest vehicle exporter ( yahoo.com ) Nigeria devalues the naira in bid to attract foreign investors ( ft.com ) Javier Blas on X: "[ICYMI] COLUMN: No, Saudi Arabia didn't just signaled the end of oil. "What’s true, and has been for a while, is that the world is transitioning away from Saudi crude to American oil — not just from the US, but also Canada, Brazil and Guyana." @Opinion https://t.co/u69xTYf3sG " / X ( twitter.com ) Trump throws wrench into U.S.-Nippon Steel with vow to block - Nikkei Asia Musk seeks Tesla shareholder vote on moving incorporation to Texas | Reuters Boeing execs stand by 2025-26 financial guidance; near-term focus is safety | Reuters EU to delay new green rule in bid to appease protesting farmers | Farming | The Guardian Benko-Bär: Collardi-Buddy takes over, 250 jobs gone – Inside Paradeplatz Thai court orders election-winning party to end its royal reform campaign in blow to voters who backed change ( yahoo.com ) India Budget 2024: PM Modi shuns big spending in pre-election budget - BBC News A23a: World's biggest iceberg on the move after 30 years - BBC News Amazing pictures The world’s largest iceberg is voyaging through the Antarctic waters after more than 30 years being stuck to the ocean floor. The frozen mass is almost 4,000 sq km, more than twice the size of greater London, has been drifting at speed and is about to spill beyond Antarctic boundaries 'Almost inevitable' UK will burn more gas and import more energy after Hinkley nuclear plant delayed, experts warn | Climate News | Sky News EURJPY

Spanish, Belgian and (other) farmers joining French and German protests US job openings rise in December to highest level in 3 months, FOMC presser is key later on tonight, all ears on J Pow Alphabet reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for the fourth quarter, but ad revenue trailed analysts’ projections, AMD’s AI revenue forecast gets a massive boost — but apparently not enough for the stock >>> a case of too much priced in the shares?.. Elon Musk said that the first human patient has received a brain implan t from his startup Neuralink — and is recovering well U.S Home Prices hit another all-time high in November while affordability remains near record lows - another rather odd 'chart/Thread below French inflation sliding.. at 3.4% from a year ago, slowing from 4.1% in Dec, that’s less than the 3.6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey Saxo : One thing is certain: Japanese investors will think twice before buying USTs - 10y USTs hedged against JPY offer -1.45% in yield JPM : Concentration Risk among the top 10 stocks is rising and is approaching levels last seen during the peak of the Dot Com Bubble Markets : a slight peak/bearish 'very short-term' QQQ candle yesterday on charts after GOOD and AMD's reports, NVDA is the only Magnificent 7 stock seeing an increase in earnings revisions. (thread) FXland asleep, rates pretty quiet, JGB's got chinned earlier on BoJ comments , recovered on softer JPN data. All about J Powell presser tonight Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸🇯🇵One thing is certain: Japanese investors will think twice before buying USTs - 10y USTs hedged against JPY offer -1.45% in yield - Even if bought unhedged, USDJPY will need to appreciate for such trade to make sense. With BOJ looking to normalize policy that's a risky trade https://t.co/e9lbBYmpUz " / X ( twitter.com ) January Fed meeting preview: 3 key questions as the FOMC looks likely to push back on rate cut bets ( msn.com ) US job openings rise in December to highest level in 3 months ( yahoo.com ) and yet there has been a not insignificant amount of news similar to this UPS lays off 12,000 after pay raises, falling revenue ( qz.com ) Ian Shepherdson on X: "Absolutely don't care about the jump in JOLTS job openings. Noisy, often revised substantially, and not correlated with future payrolls. The low and falling quits rate, on the other hand... https://t.co/ySoWZsPCGu " / X ( twitter.com ) Charlie Bilello on X: "US Home Prices hit another all-time high in November while affordability remains near record lows. https://t.co/0zHQkHHUfr " / X ( twitter.com ) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "As we approach earnings release for most mega-caps: NVDA is the only Magnificent 7 stock seeing an increase in earnings revisions. The company is almost the sole beneficiary of the recent AI advancements, contrasting sharply with others that have only experienced hype without… https://t.co/0H1Yf0taVe " / X ( twitter.com ) ECB's Centeno says rate cuts should start sooner rather than later | Reuters Lagarde Comments Suggest ECB Rate Cut In March Unlikely - ECB President Lagarde said the ECB is data dependent and it needs more data especially wage data to determine their next move. The next euro area Q3 labor cost index will be released on March 19. That means a rate cut from the ECB is unlikely on March 13. (Leo He, UBS Knowledge Network) Glynn’s Take: RBA Will Resist Calls to Cut Interest Rates for Some Time - WSJ Cut almost fully priced in for June 2024 Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine ( cnbc.com ) Volume 167: Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report | by James Butterfill | Jan, 2024 | CoinShares Research Blog Elon Musk’s Neuralink faces brain chip challenge from China ( qz.com ) Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 earnings report 2023 ( cnbc.com ) AMD’s AI revenue forecast gets a massive boost — but apparently not enough, as stock falls ( msn.com ) Spanish farmers have no advantage over protesting French counterparts, says minister ( yahoo.com ) Belgian farmers to block Zeebrugge port as French protests spill over - reports ( msn.com ) Solar farm size slammed by critics ( msn.com ) #Botley solar - why is it called a 'farm' ?? Food and drink price rise warning as Brexit border changes come into force | ITV News Great ! another #Brexit bonus Elon Implants a Brain Chip, Deepfakes Break X - Elon, Inc. - Omny.fm

US Treasury Department cuts Jan-Mar borrowing estimate to $760bn from $816bn - and estimates $202 bn net borrowing For Apr-Jun (pushed yields and USD a little lower, risk higher) >>> today's 'pre-market release on composition' will be more important for the UST curve The ECB should change three bad habits Ray Dalio commentary - 2024: A pivotal year on the brink Hungary accuses EU of blackmail over Ukraine aid standoff "Stagflation, increased commodity costs, labor costs and benefits to retain talented staff, political upheaval, border failure and dysfunction at the regulatory level [are issues affecting our business]." - Dallas Fed respondent China's 10year yields fall to a 2 decade low on rate cut hopes/deflationary signs Sen. Elizabeth Warren pushes Fed Chair Powell to cut ‘astronomical’ rates, ease housing pressure Mounting foreign turmoil threatens to overshadow Biden’s campaign JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Tech Earnings Testing Rich Valuations “A few bad inflation prints would likely upset both bond and equity markets, as risk markets could again start pricing a higher probability of ‘hard landing” (still bearish..) Italy’s privacy regulator says OpenAI's ChatGPT tool and techniques used to gather users’ data are in breach of the country’s privacy law The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator surged "from 5.5 to 6.0, highest since Jul'21 , on strong inflows to stocks, strong equity market breadth (BofA Breadth Rule up to 44% from 7%) & strong credit technicals." - BofA Hartnett Britain's 'most capable PM '? Starmer opens up record 13-point lead over Sunak in new Ipsos poll. Labour on huge overall lead of 49%-27% over Tories Ryanair's CEO, a huge Boeing customer and hater, thinks the planes are fine Fun fact : Nasdaq’s price-to-book ratio is now larger than Chinese stocks’ P/E multiple Markets >>> all about the Mag 5 starting to report today + FOMC tomorrow, BoE Thursday and NFP Friday >>> plenty of earnings, FOMC, geopolitics, month-end flows to cause spikes in volatility, consider optionality to trade/hedge Treasury Cuts Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $760 Billion ( yahoo.com ) Mounting foreign turmoil threatens to overshadow Biden’s campaign ( msn.com ) Ray Dalio Commentary- 2024: A Pivotal Year on the Brink ( yahoo.com ) The ECB Should Change Three Bad Habits by Willem H. Buiter & Ebrahim Rahbari - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org ) important read! Warren pushes Fed Chair Powell to cut rates, ease housing pressure ( cnbc.com ) SNB president says stronger Swiss franc painful for companies - SWI swissinfo.ch No kidding Hungary accuses EU of blackmail over Ukraine aid standoff ( cnbc.com ) France protests: Farmers block major roads around Paris over falling incomes - BBC News Haley hits Trump on tariffs ahead of her Wall Street fundraisers ( cnbc.com ) Blackstone Is Building a $25 Billion AI Data Center Empire - Bloomberg Elon Musk, Bernard Arnault take turns as world's richest person ( qz.com ) Amazon's bid to buy Roomba maker iRobot is called off amid pushback in Europe ( qz.com ) Surprise exit of a key Goldman exec is latest shakeup for the Wall Street giant ( yahoo.com ) ChatGPT is violating Europe’s privacy laws, Italian DPA tells OpenAI | TechCrunch The Western fight against the tide of history - Asia Times Singapore Launderer Slapped With More Charges ( finews.asia ) India set to be world's third largest economy in 2027: finance ministry ( cnbc.com ) Boeing planes praised by Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary amid 737 Max 9 issues ( qz.com ) Renault cancels Ampere IPO but still launching 7 new models | Electrek Who is Britain's 'most capable PM'? Keir Starmer on record 13-point lead over Rishi Sunak in new Ipsos poll | Evening Standard Both sides finally agree! DUP agrees to end boycott of Northern Ireland government - BBC News COPPER - unconvinced about China's effort-easing EURJPY still on trend higher - short-term peak perhaps in short-term

Week ahead : FED meeting, easy 'unch' decision this time, everyone expects them to cut hard this year (140bps priced in), the FED dop plots have 3 cuts for the year, next few meetings will be more debated >>> however we have the U.S treasury refunding announcement too on Wednesday, which will outline the compositions of the issuance going forward, this event has moved markets before and markets will be looking for hints on QT too. BoE on Thursday unchanged, and a huge week of earnings, MSFT today, AAPL and AMZN on Thursday "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver a first cut in March and 5 cuts in total in 2024. The main reason is that progress on inflation has already surpassed the threshold the FOMC has given" --GS (slightly under what the markets been pricing all along) China put the brakes on short-selling as it seeks to shore up stock markets. Strategic investors won’t be allowed to lend out shares during agreed lock-up periods starting today, regulators said. In real estate, Guangzhou eased buying curbs on larger housing units as part of efforts to stem falling prices World Court stops short of Gaza ceasefire order for Israel The US became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in less than a decade , drastically rewriting global energy trade/Thread Norway defends deep-sea mining , says it may help to break China and Russia’s rare earths stronghold AfD narrowly loses first election since mass deportation meeting revelations Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid Markets : The top 13 stocks have driven the whole of the S&P’s YTD upside with the top five contributing ~70% >>> concentration of risk, nothing new, big week ahead though, ''massive & most powerful short-cycle rally ever'' Commods/Saxo Thread below FXland all fairly quiet, CROSSJPY's pushed a little higher again, EURCHF cannot hold even .9400+, GBPCHF fails 1.10+ too, slightly disappointing for the bull sin those pairs, EURO should weaken on weak macro data though and dovish ECB Equity markets powered ahead in January, inflows in Mag 7's + short-covering from HF's made it a pretty fierce cocktail of event, markets were able to ignore any geo-political, supply chain disruption events around the world, awaiting the big boys reporting now >>> Earnings Calendar | Markets Insider ( businessinsider.com ) The busiest and most crucial week for fourth-quarter earnings is here. These 5 companies will do the heavy lifting. ( msn.com ) Federal Reserve Board - Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet ECB President Lagarde finds herself under pressure | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog ( wordpress.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "COT on #commodities (wk to Jan 23) showed continued net selling despite broad price gains. It left several contracts exposed to a China stimulus and US GDP squeeze. Selling was concentrated in metals and grains with several short positions reaching multi-year highs (copper,… https://t.co/MOMlpuZ1Y6 " / X ( twitter.com ) World Court stops short of Gaza ceasefire order for Israel | Reuters Three U.S. troops killed, up to 34 injured in Jordan drone strike linked to Iran ( cnbc.com ) Stephen Stapczynski on X: "THE US LNG MIRACLE 🇺🇸🚢 This is the story of how the US became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in less than a decade, drastically rewriting global energy trade Thread below 🧵👇 https://t.co/Aw4x15YEVy " / X ( twitter.com ) Biden's natural gas export pause adds to mixed climate record ( qz.com ) Jack Ma's $50M BABA Buy Signals 'Buy China!' | Seeking Alpha US, China to hold meeting on fentanyl precursor chemicals this week | Reuters Media layoffs: Google, Paramount, Disney, and others commit to job cuts in 2024 ( yahoo.com ) A projection in Finland says Alexander Stubb wins the first round of the presidential election to set up a Feb 11 runoff ( qz.com ) Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid ( ft.com ) Austria: Approaching from the Half-Right | Tages-Anzeiger ( tagesanzeiger.ch ) AfD narrowly loses first election since mass deportation meeting revelations | Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) | The Guardian Giorgia Meloni’s not-so-scary right-wing government ( economist.com ) Norway defends deep-sea mining as a necessary step into the unknown ( cnbc.com ) SPX500 looks a bit overdone but we've been here before - 20% of index report this week if ever there is to be a trigger for a correction

Time to head to the mountains this weekend! The FTC is aiming to unravel the complex and secretive corporate relationships in the top AI companies out there in a new inquiry. Orders have been sent  to Alphabet, Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI that will, as Chair Lina Khan said, "shed light on whether investments and partnerships pursued by dominant companies risk distorting innovation and undermining fair competition." Christine Lagarde said Thursday she was proud to lead the institution, after her performance was criticized in a union-run survey, added that ‘disinflation process is at work’ and hints at summer rate cut (>>> with risk of an earlier move, in March..if data worsen) BTFP up to $168bn, increases from here are not arbitrage-driven Lost Gustav Klimt painting found after almost 100 years to be auctioned. The painting, titled Portrait of Fraulein Lieser , is one of the last works by the world-renowned artist, and was last seen in public in 1925 UKR/RU latest defence intelligence update on the situation U.S. is now the first country in the world to cross over $1 trillion in interest payments on its government debt Markets : About 140bps of cuts priced in for Fed in 2024, and ECB priced in for 140bps (up about 10bps from 2days ago) EURO a little softer vs everything after 'dovish' ECB, #EURGBP might have room to run lower #GBPCHF 1.1200+ Equity markets have powered ahead , mainly you know who, quite a few announcements of layoffs amongst tech firms, 5pct of staff here and there, nothing dramatic but.. Intel and TSLA knocked short-term sentiment yesterday + perhaps the FTC inquiry could worry 'current momentum' Crude highest level in 2months FTC orders AI companies to dish on investments, partnerships and meetings ( yahoo.com ) Borrowing from Fed's emergency lending program rose to a fresh record, just before Fed raised the facility’s interest rate to stop financial institutions from taking advantage and arbitraging on its attractive terms. Demand for Bank Term Funding Program rose $6.3bn to an ATH of $167.8bn. Borrowing has jumped by >$50bn since mid-November after program’s rate increasingly fell below the rate at which institutions could earn money by parking reserves at Fed. Any increase from here is not arbitrage-driven. (BBG) ECB's Lagarde responds to scathing staff survey: 'I'm very proud and honored to lead the institution' ( msn.com ) BOJ saw need in December for debate on future rate hike pace - minutes - CNA ( channelnewsasia.com ) Putin Sends US Signal on Ukraine Talks, Sensing Advantage in War ( yahoo.com ) Defence Intelligence – communicating probability - GOV.UK ( www.gov.uk ) China’s Economy: Cassandra vs. Pollyanna | China Books Review Very good from G.Ma gnus Yellen: strong US GDP growth signals productivity gains, not inflation ( msn.com ) Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say | Reuters UK consumer confidence rises to best score in two years | Retail Week ( retail-week.com ) Baroness Michelle Mone assets worth £75m frozen by a court order ( msn.com ) It's a start ! Intel sinks after first quarter outlook disappoints ( msn.com ) Back to a bit of reality, stock had ramped up 75% since October! Consumers in Germany 'spending less' as recession drags on ( thelocal.de ) Lost Gustav Klimt painting found after almost 100 years to be auctioned | World News | Sky News EURGBP - through 0.8500 area might awaken the market ! AND/OR GBPCHF 1.12+ EURUSD - with a dovish ECB -should be heading towards 1.0500 area

Fed to allow emergency bank lending program expire on March 11 and the FED raised the rate on loans to banks issued under an emergency lending program launched last year, after borrowing surged in recent weeks as institutions took advantage of the attractive financing terms Alibaba co-founders buy more than $200 million worth of shares , sending stock up (there will be more similar moves elsewhere, no doubt).. part of 'trying to improve sentiment' in addition to all the state interventions.. Qube Research & Technologies Ltd. has amassed a short bet of more than $1 billion against German companies amid a downturn in global demand that’s slowing Europe’s biggest economy., maybe not best idea to tell everyone ? There are now 7 companies in the Trillion Dollar Club again. Meta has passed the $1tn mark, and Microsoft is now worth $3tn for the 1st time ever Musk : Tesla says "our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.", Tesla Q4 revenues increased 3.5% YoY, its slowest growth rate since Q2 2020 . Gross margins fell to 17.6% from 23.8% a year ago, largely a result of the deep price cuts on its vehicles >>> China’s EV players ramp up competition with Tesla using new tech China Financial News, a PBOC-backed media outlet, said Monday's State Council meeting indicated that more practical policies are coming The ECB has asked some banks to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs UAW’s Shawn Fain says Trump ‘doesn’t care about the American worker’ as union backs Biden for re-election Markets : TLT closed at its lowest since Dec 4th and is now again firmly below its 200dma , $61 billion 5y UST auction no bueno: 2 bps tail, highest dealer takedown since Sept 2022 (per BMO) China Eq #HSI #CHINA50 etc . stay bullish, contrarian trade supported by enormous PBOC action, if CNH strengthens somewhat (or does not weaken on higher UST yields) it will confirm capital inflows EURstoxx50 hitting 23y highs at 4'575, still far away from the 2000 highs nearer to 5'250 U.S. markets hitting news highs>>> weak 5Y UST auction, TSLA weaker, if you want to look for a few signs of potential weakness outside the Mag 7's there are plenty, but so far it didn't matter! >>> facts, RSI, overbought, % of stocks above 200dmas etc Copper, Iron Ore and other commods generally a little higher (China action..) US PCE Preview: March rate cut bets could pick up again | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Summary:  Market is seemingly focused on resilient growth in the US economy, and has pared March rate cut expectations for the Fed. While growth metrics remain mixed, focus will likely return to disinflation with core PCE this week pointing towards a move to 2% inflation by mid-2024. Soft core PCE below 0.2% MoM for December will likely increase the odds of a March rate cut again, pushing yields and dollar lower. Fed to allow emergency bank lending program expire on March 11 | Reuters Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Board announces the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11 Fed Raises Rate on Emergency Loan Program to Stop Arbitrage ( yahoo.com ) UAW endorses Biden, Fain says Trump 'doesn’t care about the American worker' | Fortune Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Brazil-sized Guangdong, China's biggest province by GDP, is not one of the country's most overly-indebted provinces, but this article by Caixin nonetheless gives some very useful information about the way debt has surged. https://t.co/eqQmCpLrTA " / X ( twitter.com ) China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence — but is it enough? ( msn.com ) It's way oversold and unowned ECB Asks Some Lenders To Monitor Social Media For Early Signs Of Bank Runs -sources ( globalbankingandfinance.com ) That's one strange article.. D Hedge Fund Qube Built a $1 Billion Short Bet Against Top German Companies | Financial Post U.S. firms prefer India over China for supply chain needs despite risks ( cnbc.com ) Alibaba stock up after Jack Ma and Joe Tsai buy shares ( cnbc.com ) Tesla (TSLA) 2023 Q4 earnings ( cnbc.com ) >> China’s EV players ramp up competition with Tesla using new technology ( cnbc.com ) German auto suppliers struggle as Chinese EV makers rise | Fortune Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Interesting Caixin analysis on China’s new rules on share buybacks for listed companies. For me the key impact of encouraging the use of share buybacks to support the stock market is its systemic (self-reinforcing) impact on overall volatility. https://t.co/CB6CaQbZ3Q " / X ( twitter.com ) China says it's working to de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea that have upended global trade ( qz.com ) China's gold output, consumption rise in 2023-Xinhua ( news.cn ) Tottenham Hotspur billionaire Joe Lewis pleads guilty to insider trading charges in US | UK News | Sky News - why do insider trade when a billionnaire ?...lots of war stories from while back on the FX world... ‘A tribal clique’: Lagarde denounces economists at Davos – Euractiv Not great to be too critical of the troops like this... Italy’s Meloni Picks Fight With Stellantis on Car Production ( yahoo.com ) Social Security was a key issue in the fight for New Hampshire. Expect that to continue until November. ( yahoo.com ) At Lindt&Sprüngli, "insider" sales continue fiercely – Inside Paradeplatz

China to unveil steps to deepen financial cooperation with Hong Kong - BBG >>> could they force HKMA to get closer to PBOC policies ? definitely worth keeping an eye on ! #HKD China : The 0.5% RRR cut will release RMB1 trillion in liquidity . PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned support to property developers' cashflows during the PBoC press conference Trump cruises to New Hampshire win >>> Trump will push protectionist ideas, he likes debt, so rates up and USD up, markets could start early to price in a Trump presidency The Turkish parliament voted Tuesday to approve Sweden’s NATO membership bid, bringing the Nordic country one step closer to joining US asks China to urge Iran to curb Red Sea attacks by Houthis -FT Japanese exports hit record in 2023 (..super weak currency) >>> watch JGB's, which are a little bit on the move again this morning, supporting JPY Saxo report -Silver and copper in focus after recent declines Sweden inches toward NATO "The Fed put may be back. The Fed put exists when the market expects a rapid monetary policy response to any sign of economic weakness, but it has never, in our view, reflected any true love of the Fed for equities and other risky assets:" Standard Chartered's Steve Englander French business activity falls at steepest pace in four months - PMI, while in Germany, we got the lowest output price inflation in 3 years!.. >>> Mme Lagarde will soon have to change her tune...and cut rates perhaps quicker than many think, the bit of good news though is that growth (ex France and Germany) has returned within EU after nearly 6months of decline Markets : Contrarians will like what they see in Chinese markets, Nasdaq Golde Dragon index #HXC and #HSI all in play, China50 etc FXland fairly quiet, though USDJPY doesn't seem to like life 148+, keep an eye on JGB's, which are selling off a little again this morning, supporting JPY Equity markets love pretty much everything that they see! new highs in few places again, Netflix beat after hours too Copper, Crude, few commods a little firmer overall China snowball knock-ins fuel futures sell-off  - Risk.net Re-hedging of China’s popular snowball structured products in the futures market is said to have contributed to the ongoing rout in the country’s equity markets, according to market participants.....many of these structures, the clients lost all/most of the capital >>> huge pain taken by markets >>> time for a contrarian trade!! China Slams EU’s ‘Unfair’ Electric Vehicle Probe - Bloomberg PBOC Will Cut RRR for Banks in Early February, Governor Says ( yahoo.com ) China to double down on support for Hong Kong as nation’s international financial hub for bonds, green finance, minister says at AFF | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 The 26 Chinese provinces and municipalities that have reported GDP growth targets so far this year represent nearly 90% of China's GDP. By my calculation, the weighted average GDP growth target for these 26 provinces and municipalities is 5.2%. https://t.co/O1fJAgWgpV " / X ( twitter.com ) French business activity falls at steepest pace in four months - PMI ( yahoo.com ) Sweden got one step closer to joining NATO ( qz.com ) Germany's far-right AfD could face legal challenges ( msn.com ) Silver and copper in focus after recent declines | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Markets could start to price in a Trump presidency | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Trump defeats Haley in New Hampshire GOP primary ( cnn.com ) Japanese exports hit record in 2023 on weak yen - Nikkei Asia Netflix Stock Jumps 8% as Paid Sharing, Pricing Changes Drive Q4 Revenue Beat ( msn.com ) Replace Sunak as PM or face decade of decline under Starmer ( telegraph.co.uk ) US asks China to urge Iran to curb Red Sea attacks by Houthis -FT | Reuters Red Sea attacks reveal supply chain fragility - FreightWaves Bridging the way: the benefits of gradual decarbonisation - Financial Times - Partner Content by ENI ( ft.com ) China50 - it's been so hammered since 2021 - only a correction could mean 20-30pct rally from these lows

China’s Premier Li Qiang orders authorities to attract long-term capital to stabilise stock market after trillion-dollar rout  >>> by printing first.. the PBOC just added $150B to its balance sheet in December, this brings the total increase to almost $850B just in the last 5 months and then China 'mulls stock market rescue package backed by $278bn '' - (Chinese and HK stocks have lost a combine $6.3 trillion from the 2021 peak valuations!) BoJ's Ueda: Policy change is possible even when there is no update to quarterly outlook >>> overall still looking for a move in Q1, most likely March, might be delayed after their financial new year in April $162bn of UST auctions this week , $60bn 2y today, 61bn 5ytom and 41bn of 7y Thursday >> should give market a good feel for appetite out there for govt debt Christine Lagarde makes a poor central banker, ECB staff say  .‘Mario Draghi was there for the ECB while the ECB seems to be there for Christine Lagarde,’ one staff member writes in major survey. BTP's premium over Germany has fallen to 152bps , lowest in 2years (was closer to 100bps in summer 2021, before rates pushed higher globally "Our analysis indicates a labor market returning to pre-pandemic norms, best characterized as a somewhat tight labor market that does not pose an inflation problem" --GS USA now up to 64% of the global stock market/MSCI world Fishing ban to protect dolphins in Bay of Biscay comes into effect I ntermarché confirmed Unilever is to take the French retailer to court in the latest row in the country between grocer and supplier over prices >>> you can't mock the products of others ?...will be interesting to see what the law says...the 'law' says you are supposed to play fairly ExxonMobil is suing its own shareholders over a proposal aimed at reducing emissions "Geopolitical fragmentation is one of the reasons we see persistent inflation pressures - and policy rates staying above pre-pandemic levels...We expect deeper fragmentation, heightened competition and less cooperation between major nations in 2024:" BlackRock Markets : UST yields slightly higher ahead of UST auctions and key data >>> 4.2% in 10s UST key level technically USD not doing much, tiny JPY reaction to the Ueda headline above, broadly speaking all pretty quiet in FXland, overall our focus remain on 'sign of CHF weakness' going forward. USDCNH a little softer on PBOC action Equity markets pushing higher, DOW hit 38K for 1st time. NIKKEI very close to hitting new all time highs that were set some 35 years ago, meanwhile chinese stocks have hit their lowest valuation relative to US stocks in history , is it time ? #HSI >>> going shortly into full U.S earnings season Zero Day Options (ODTE) volume surged last week to 49% of all options volume, just shy of an all-time high BTC sub 40K >>> as expected... those ETF's were a classic opportunity for a ramp-up in price ahead of the event, highs seen on ETF launch.. Dow closes above 38,000 for 1st time, setting record high ( msn.com ) Treasury yields fractionally higher ahead of key data releases ( cnbc.com ) US, British forces carry out new strikes in Yemen | Reuters Yemen strikes live: US and UK launch new strikes against Houthi targets - BBC News Bank of Japan retains its ultra-loose policy, trims core inflation forecast ( cnbc.com ) British Manager Chris Hohn Scores A $13 Billion 2023 Windfall As Ken Griffin Remains Hedge Fund GOAT ( forbes.com ) China Buys Near-Record $40 Billion of Chip Gear to Beat US Curbs ( yahoo.com ) China’s Premier Li Qiang orders authorities to attract long-term capital to stabilise stock market after trillion-dollar rout ( msn.com ) China strategist warns of deflation and rock-bottom consumer confidence ( cnbc.com ) hence interventions Finland does not fear Russia, says presidential frontrunner ( ft.com ) Trump's proposed 10% tariff plan would shake up every asset class: Strategist ( cnbc.com ) ExxonMobil sues shareholders over a proposal to cut emissions ( qz.com ) Christine Lagarde makes a poor central banker, ECB staff say  – POLITICO FRANKFURT — On the global stage, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde still exudes the air of an international rockstar of finance, but back home her records just won’t sell Thousands of Companies Are Monitoring Every Facebook User, According to a Study - Vigilant News Everything you need to know about your electricity bill going up on February 1, 2024 | economie.gouv.fr >>> via subsidies, the French government covered about 35% of electricity cost for families an small businesses.. Energy bills in Great Britain forecast to fall by 16% in April | Energy bills | The Guardian Good news ! Fishing ban to protect dolphins in Bay of Biscay comes into effect ( lemonde.fr ) Really...!!? Unilever takes Intermarché to court in France ( msn.com ) Hand Seng 50 - time for a little contrarian trade ? #HK50

Our hot chocolate is getting very expensive ! cocoa prices on 46y highs Week ahead : BoJ tonight (market expectations are for 'unch', but BoJ does like to surprise, overall view though, they will move in March 2024), EZ flash Dec PMI and BoC on Wed, German IFO and ECB rate decision on Thursday + Q4 U.S GDP and finally U.S Dec core PCE on Friday Ron DeSantis dropped out of the 2024 US presidential race and endorsed Donald Trump. He left before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, where a CNN poll had him at 6% to 50% for Trump and 39% for Nikki Haley. Haley is getting support from Wall Street , with Stanley Druckenmiller, Henry Kravis, Ken Langone and Cliff Asness planning a Jan. 30 fundraiser. An internal investigation has found that Joe Biden’s administration is failing to track foreign ownership of U.S. farmland , after it was recently discovered that the second-largest foreign landowner is a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) member Red Sea 'scary' for ships' crews, says captain. Marsh says insuring a container ship is up 70 times since the Red Sea troubles began European manufacturers and retailers face ‘chaotic’ period after Red Sea attacks >>> Upward Pressure on Goods Inflation US corporate bond markets are “on fire” as companies have sold a record $150bn of debt since the start of this month , the busiest opening to the year for more than three decade-FT (rushing before rates head higher?) JP Morgan reaffirms its year-end 4200 price prediction for the S&P 500 >>> the lowest S&P target for 2024 EU seeks ‘consequences’ for Israel over opposition to Palestinian statehood . Bloc’s foreign ministers step up pressure on Netanyahu to reverse his resistance to two-state solution FT - This isn’t your father’s S&P 500. Don’t worry about valuations'', that's some headline! In Germany, the AfD is now officially leading the polls >>> Weekend of mass protests held across Germany to decry far-right AfD >>> ''the party will push for a Brexit-style referendum on membership of the Eu if it comes to power, said its leader Alice Weidel, ''if reforming the EU isn't possible, we should let the people decide'' The Biden administration discharged another $4.9 billion in student loan debt for more than 73,600 borrowers, the Education Department announced Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Risks Long-Term Destabilization in China Markets : SPX5600 breaking that double top at 4'800, it is now 12% higher than when the FED started hiking rates in March 2022 >>> a lot of research coming out looking at chasing laggers, small caps, Europe, healthcare and so on, and why not indeed! >>> fair to say the contrarian trades have been battered so far, HSI back to 15K which is where it was at the handover in 1997... while Mag 7's rallying hard, MSCI China back to near levels not seen since 2009, and NIKKEI back up to 34year highs "0dte options volumes have surged to a new high, averaging 1.8mn contracts over the past 5 days and 49% of total options volumes" --Citi 10's UST 4.12, beware if bonds sell-off gathers momentum above 4.20% yield area Red Sea 'scary' for ships' crews, says captain - BBC News Netanyahu rejects Hamas conditions for Israeli hostage deal | Reuters EU seeks ‘consequences’ for Israel over opposition to Palestinian statehood ( ft.com ) Weekend of mass protests held across Germany to decry far-right AfD ( yahoo.com ) German far-right leader hails Brexit as ‘model for Germany’ ( ft.com ) BREAKING: German train drivers' union calls six-day strike ( thelocal.de ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 Bloomberg says that "China’s citizens are finally traveling in force again, and their rush to spend may further pressure the weakening yuan," by putting downward pressure on its current account But it is not nearly that simple. https://t.co/D6aH2nGjrj via @markets" / X ( twitter.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 "Wei suggested that Chinese policymakers should urgently inject more liquidity into the economy to avoid a deflation-debt spiral. But for the lending channel to work effectively, China must reform its state-owned banks to ensure..." https://t.co/cCYTu1doQD " / X ( twitter.com ) >>>> Cover Story: Can China Pull Its Economy Out of a Deflationary Nosedive? Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Risks Long-Term Destabilization in China ( stratfor.com ) Barchart on X: "JP Morgan reaffirms its year-end 4200 price prediction for the S&P 500 $SPX https://t.co/ulQB8cWzbd " / X ( twitter.com ) Is America overpriced? ( ft.com ) >>> There is an historically large premium on the S&P 500, when compared to markets in the rest of the world. That reflects strong outperformance in the past decade, but can that last? Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong evaluate the emerging markets vs US trade. Also, we go long insurance, and short polyamory Haley says Trump uses nicknames because ‘he feels insecure’ | The Hill UPDATE 7-Ron DeSantis ends 2024 campaign, endorses Trump over Haley as New Hampshire vote looms ( yahoo.com ) Biden administration to forgive additional $4.9 billion in student debt ( yahoo.com ) 'National Security Risk': Investigation Reveals Biden Admin Failed to Track Foreign Ownership of U.S. Farmland ( breitbart.com ) Are Healthcare Stocks Poised for a Comeback? ( finews.asia ) Australia: 'Golden visa' scheme for wealthy investors axed - BBC News Designed to attract foreign business, it was cut in an immigration overhaul after the government found it was "delivering poor economic outcomes" EURCHF needs 0.9550+ to gets the bulls interested

Keep warm! U.S inflation at say 3% isn't a problem at all ! what is the problem, is the market expectations that we are heading to 2% fast together with the 5 or 6 cuts priced in for 2024 >>> The late 2023 persistent bid for duration is obviously no more as we start pricing higher inflation and term risk Japan's core inflation slows for 2nd mont h, taking pressure of BoJ to hurry into changing policy >>> JPY reaction overnight, 149 USDJPY highs U.S Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2022 UK/EU Banks brace for new multibillion £ mis-selling saga: This time it's car loans UK chancellor, Jeremy Hunt has given strong hints that he wants to cut taxes in the spring budget The United States is drowning OPEC in oil . Shale country keeps putting pressure on the Saudi-led cartel TSMC sees more delays at its Arizona chips plant — and again blames a shortage of skilled workers Benjamin Netanyahu rejects calls from US for Palestinian state after Gaza conflict Assets in money market funds and CDs hit $8.8 Trillion China's exports to Kazakhstan reached a new all-time high in Dec 2023 , how!? >>> and China banning bad news and short selling, rather than address issues. . >>> State-owned Citic Securities Co. has stopped lending stocks to individual investors and raised the requirements for institutional clients earlier this week after so-called window guidance from regulators Nato warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years . Top official urges civilians as well as governments to prepare for life-changing conflict and potential conscription (pushing defense spending to new highs for longer!) "AI has to be, almost, a human right, to have access to AI, and we need to have the governance around AI," says Salesforce CEO EURCHF - above 0.9550 area and long-term players may start to unwind long CHF positions >> very little reasons to be short eurchf, usdchf, gbpchf down here !! au contraire (chart below, though I'm sure you can do a better one :-) - just to be things in perspective Markets : Mag 7's, NVDA, AMD flavour of the month, year so far! pushing NASDAQ through new highs, AAPL got an upgrade from BofA, MSFT new highs etc SPX500 4'800 test again, looking at NASDAQ for clues?.. FXland : a bout of CHF weakness , which should continue... on the back of SNB/Jordan and seasonal (lack of hedging flows), JPY been weak on slightly softer JPN inflation and higher UST rates path (pushing back on early cut(s) UST10's 4.14, bond bulls keeping an eye on 4.2% as a key resistance (in yield terms), and eventual risk of any other equity outside the Mag 7's! and USDollar 30-Year Treasury Yield jumps to 4.37%, its highest level since early December Crude steady/slightly higher >> ME tensions vs US flooding markets Nick Timiraos on X: "Based on the Dec CPI and PPI, core PCE is projected to have been mild last month. The modelers who forecast this expect core PCE rose 0.17% from Nov. This would lower the 12-month rate to 2.9%. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates would fall to 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively https://t.co/X8Yp5sMfUP " / X ( twitter.com ) Carl Quintanilla on X: "B of A: “.. Following a year of investors bracing for a recession .. every type of US investor holds more cash and less equities. .. We see some inklings of warming sentiment toward equities .. but are far from levels of euphoria that would mark the end of a bull market.”… https://t.co/49ABNZy7WT " / X ( twitter.com ) Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2022, while CEO exits hit new high ( msn.com ) Red Sea shipping attacks add to inflation risks - Oxford Economics World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024 | World Economic Forum ( weforum.org ) Quite a lot of super interesting folks talking, thankfully no 'message', just a nice stream of very high profile speakers We don't want to see an AI 'Hiroshima,' Salesforce CEO warns ( msn.com ) Can WEF break the impasse on global governance of AI? - SWI swissinfo.ch China’s Biggest Brokerage Restricts Short Sales After Stock Rout ( yahoo.com ) Japan's core inflation slows for 2nd month, takes pressure off BOJ | Reuters Chancellor Jeremy Hunt hints at further tax cuts ( msn.com ) The most infamous bond trade | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) US Congress passes bill to avert government shutdown, sends it to Biden | Reuters North Korea tested underwater nuclear weapons system: KCNA - Nikkei Asia Benjamin Netanyahu rejects calls from US for Palestinian state after Gaza conflict | World News | Sky News Robin Brooks on X: "China's exports to Kazakhstan reached a new all-time high in December 2023. This isn't rocket science. It's not like Kazakhstan has gone into a massive boom. These goods are obviously getting trans-shipped to Russia and help keep Putin's war economy going... https://t.co/JUDyOeIGA2 " / X ( twitter.com ) Nato warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years ( telegraph.co.uk ) The United States is drowning OPEC in oil ( qz.com ) TSMC sees delays at Arizona chips plant, blames skilled worker shortage ( qz.com ) ‘It’s the industry’s dirty secret’: why fashion’s oversupply problem is an environmental disaster | Fashion industry | The Guardian Electric cars at risk of breaking down as cold weather impairs batteries | ITV News nothing new, but EV drivers don't want the cold snap to last, how ironic Banks Brace for New Multibillion-Pound Misselling Saga: This Time It's Car Loans | Financial Post The Financial Conduct Authority has reached out to around a dozen banks about their auto lending practices, according to people familiar with the matter. The moves come as the regulator said last week it had begun an investigation into how some of these products were sold — a push that analysts say could land banks with a bill of as much as £10 billion ($13 billion). For decades, lenders including Barclays Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and the UK arm of Spain’s Banco Santander SA have made big money from funding car purchases. Now, the FCA is looking at whether customers were told about the amounts of commission paid to the dealerships EURCHF - above 0.9550 area and long-term players may start to unwind long CHF positions >> very little reasons to be short eurchf, usdchf, gbpchf down here !! au contraire