Fed Minutes : high for longer kind of message AND minutes suggest QT is going to continue longer than expected, ie possibly well into 2025.... NVDA 'smashed it', rebounds sharply after hours (10pct or so down previous couple of days, and right back up after earnings as per implieds), weak JPN data weakens JPY further pushing Nikkei higher to new highs again. Nestle softer sales, MSFT to turn to Intel, Rivian weaker outlook Maybe monetary policy isn’t all that tight,’ former NY Fed's Bill Dudley says Fed’s Barkin says Inflation data show persistent price pressures Fed's Bowman: The time for lower rates is certainly not now Long-end UST's : '' If not for our experience of the aftermath of the financial crisis, I don't think too many would think current long-term rates are a GREAT buy here. Breakevens are still too low and real rates are clearly not hurting the economy. For now, going long should just be a trade'' The ECB announced that it will take a decision in March on the very important issue regarding the future operational framework to use a policy rate to influence the interbank overnight rate . The decision is also linked to the issue of the future size of the balance sheet /Thread JPMorgan’s Kolanovic doubles down on bearish stance, says a ‘second inflation wave’ could take hold China tightens grip on stocks with net sale ban at Open/Close . CSRC bans net selling by major firms in first, last 30 minutes. Regulator is creating a task force to track short selling and another reversal of policy, 2year ago they arrested Jack Ma and now : 'China accelerates drafting of law on private economy promotion'... Japan downgrades view on economy on consumer struggles >> sign that JPY can continue to stay soft/weaken further on higher UST yields Cerrado: Beef trade risks key Brazil ecosystem - campaigners Microsoft is turning to Intel — not Nvidia — to make more chips French Manufacturing Confidence Feb: 100 (est 99; prev 99) Markets : weaker JPY theme continues, NVDA lifts everything back, NIKKEI new highs, even SHCOMP and Hang Seng showing promising signs technically, and if you think China and global growth can recover (no landing, yet anyway), then this should be of interest Fed balance-sheet talks to guide 'eventual decision' on runoff. Most officials noted risks of cutting too quickly, some officials saw risk inflation progress could stall - full text https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240131.htm holding high for longer kind of a message/risk Vitor Constâncio on X: "The ECB announced that it will take a decision in March on the very important issue regarding the future operational framework to use a policy rate to influence the interbank overnight rate. The decision is also linked to the issue of the future size of the balance sheet. 1/11" / X ( twitter.com ) In February 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded and is back to its average - Informations rapides - 40 | Insee Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 February 2024 | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) ‘Maybe monetary policy isn’t all that tight,’ Bill Dudley says - MarketWatch Fed’s Thomas Barkin Says Inflation Data Show Persistent Price Pressures - Bloomberg Nvidia earnings send stock higher as AI chip demand continues ( qz.com ) - Data centers worldwide by country 2023 | Statista >>> BofAML raised targets to ..$925 Nestlé axes classic Breakaway bar after 54 years ( msn.com ) Stellantis to start electric van production at UK Luton plant in 2025 | Reuters Microsoft turns to Intel, not Nvidia, to make new chip ( qz.com ) Japan Downgrades Economic View For First Time in Three Months ( yahoo.com ) 7 Trump losses in a row, and counting ( yahoo.com ) Biden to forgive $1.2 billion in student debt for 150,000 borrowers ( cnbc.com ) Ford dodges UAW strike at at Kentucky plant ( qz.com ) China Tightens Grip on Stocks With Net Sale Ban at Open, Close - Bloomberg Brrrrrrr -52C on Sunday ! Gallery: Blizzard Engulfs Northwest China - Caixin Global Budget Speech 2024: South Africa boosts taxes and social spending before vote ( thesouthafrican.com ) Cerrado: Beef trade risks key Brazil ecosystem - campaigners - BBC News Post Office chairman was told to delay compensation in election run-up, memo suggests | Post Office Horizon scandal | The Guardian What a messy affair ! just the or certainly one of the biggest cover up by politicians , meanwhile poor folks who had done nothing wrong continue to suffer, not just financially! complete utter disagrace Postfinance and Crypto Bank Sygnum Want to Attract an Audience of Millions ( finews.asia ) AUDJPY Hang Seng

All ears and eyes on FOMC minutes first, then #NVDA after the bell, #SMCI off 30% of Friday highs.. few crazy moves out there. (up and now down). #Palo Alto weaker guidance last night, Jeff #Bezos needed a bit of cash, sold another $2.37bn of AMZN shares, for a total of $8.4bn in 10days, and SHCOMP rallies for 6th trading day, back at 3K ! #contrariantrade #USDMYR at highest level since 1998 EMG crisis, where were you during the wild Oct 1998 ? London Capital & Finance ran ‘Ponzi’ scheme, court told. Sums raised by investment firm allegedly spent on earrings, horses and shotguns Relatively heavy UST coupon issuance over the next week The price of Lithium is down 80% from its peak in 2021 - prices have normalized, good news Elon Musk says Neuralink's first human patient can move a computer mouse with their mind Israel's war against Hamas is hitting its economy even harder than expected Asset Managers have built the largest S&P 500 futures position in history according to data from CFTC Massive spending cuts have left the French government struggling to put together funding for a package of as much as €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don't rule it out UK listings : biggest message from JDcom buying/moving for Currys >>>> buy when it's cheap, and there are a lot of cheap companies in the UK, too cheap - Markets : bit of profit taking in NVDA ahead of earnings!, similarly few USD longs took profit ahead of FOMC, with higher yields overall pushing CROSSJPY's higher, pretty wild correction/down moves in the hottest stocks/sector/Ai related YTD, big picture now is risk fairly well balanced going into FOMC, clearly though, if any further signs of a 'high for longer' scenario comes out, it will give further excuse for markets to keep bond under pressure (supply) and trigger further unwind of QQQ longs All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions | Saxo Bank ( home.saxo ) Yahoo Finance on X: "How $NVDA went from $0 to $1 trillion in 60 seconds. 📈 https://t.co/ucWE9k1dfz " / X ( twitter.com ) CEO says Palo Alto Networks didn't lower its guidance due to lack of demand: 'There is no cybersecurity abyss' ( msn.com ) >>> shares down 20% after hours, lower guidance, things may be booming but things got overdone Amazon founder Bezos sells $8.5bn worth of shares ( msn.com ) Exclusive-Occidental explores $20 billion-plus sale of Western Midstream, sources say ( yahoo.com ) It's suddenly a great time to buy an EV ( yahoo.com ) good news ...finally the pricing looks better! and lithium is related Albemarle says lithium prices are unsustainably low - MINING.COM Currys’ largest shareholder warns Elliott offer ‘highlights London equity market drain to US’ ( msn.com ) Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don't rule it out ( msn.com ) Relatively heavy UST coupon issuance over the next week: Corporate Debt Sales to Top $50 Billion This Week on Deal Surge ( yahoo.com ) $13B 20y 21st Feb $10B 30y TIPs 22nd Feb $60B 2y 26th Feb $60B 5y 26th Feb $41B 7y 27th Feb Israel economy shrinks amid war against Hamas in Gaza ( qz.com ) Neuralink's first human implant patient is a success, says Musk ( qz.com ) London Capital & Finance ran ‘Ponzi’ scheme, court told ( ft.com ) Stephen Robins KC, representing the claimants, argued in written submissions that LCF had been “a Ponzi scheme from the outset” as it used “new investors’ monies to pay returns to existing investors”. Better news though ! UK banks largest monthly surplus on record before Spring Budget ( cityam.com ) The government recorded its largest monthly surplus since records began in January, helping borrowing in the year-to-date come in over £9bn below official forecasts #Brexit benefits ! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-68342491 Middle England is being taxed into submission. No wonder it’s furious ( telegraph.co.uk ) European Parliament's Pension Deficit Problem Prompts MEP Lawsuit - Bloomberg good read Ringgit’s Fall to 26-Year Low Sparks Central Bank Verbal Reply ( yahoo.com ) Iron Ore Battered to Three-Month Low as China Concerns Escalate - Bloomberg #NVDA all got overdone - 550-600$ anyone ?

Increased tensions in ME pushing crude to 3-4months highs near $80 again Chinese Banks cut 5year loan prime rate by 25bps, to 3.95 - largely unexpected >>> local markets not particularly 'impressed' by the cuts - so far anyway, Iron Ore feeling a little sceptical on the China expected recovery , meanwhile in the U.S the 30y mortgage rates has jumped back to Dec 1 highs of 7.35% Israel says it will launch Rafah assault if hostages not freed by Ramadan The Brenner Base Tunnel - great Video The meltdown in chocolate is coming Hedge funds turned bearish on the Swiss Franc just one week after boosting long bets , amid speculation the central bank is no longer supporting the currency with purchases and could even lower interest rates soon >>> Jordan's chatter at WEF....changed view.. The U.S. is considering slapping sanctions on Chinese companies it believes are helping Russia fuel its war in Ukraine, members of Congress told CNBC Bayer AG is planning to slash its dividend by 95% in an effort to pay down debt Forvia which makes parts for half of the world's cars is slashing 10,000 jobs The market cap concentration of the top 10% of stocks has hit its highest level since 1929, surpassing 2000 The "Buffett indicator" - the ratio of the market value of the entire stock market to GDP, has historically averaged around 65%. The ratio peaked at 88.3 prior to the 1929 crash. At the peak of the Dot com bubble in 2000 the ratio was 136.9%. Currently the ratio is 185% >> plenty of these anomalies around - nothing new - they don't matter until the market decide that they do... Markets : Is the FED even going to cut rates this year ? ..must be 'a' question that should be asked during weekly risk management meetings, crude up further would also question 'rate cuts' priced, FOMC minutes and NVDA next big focus All ears and eyes on FOMC minutes and NVDA earnings tomorrow : All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions | Saxo Bank ( home.saxo ) U.S - January economic data challenges soft landing narrative ( yahoo.com ) and in Germany likely in recession, Bundesbank says ( msn.com ) though they add : ''German recession doesn’t mean severe downturn'' Israel says it will launch Rafah assault if hostages not freed by Ramadan | Israel-Gaza war | The Guardian US Proposes UN Resolution For Temporary Ceasefire In Gaza, Advises Israel Against Ground Offensive Into Rafah ( msn.com ) Crew abandon British-registered cargo ship off Yemen after Houthi attack - BBC News Forvia is cutting 10,000 jobs ( qz.com ) Ursula von der Leyen announces re-election bid as European Commission president ( msn.com ) Brussels’ diluted proposals hand London a victory over clearing ( fnlondon.com ) Wondering how long till politicians will call this a 'Brexit win' for the UK ... (it's a positive sure, it's not a win, it just means nothing much changes..status-quo) Magnificent 7 profits now exceed almost every country in the world. Should we be worried? ( cnbc.com ) Bayer Plans to Slash Dividend By 95% in Bid to Pay Down Debt ( yahoo.com ) Biden admin providing $1.5 billion to GlobalFoundries to make computer chips in New York and Vermont ( qz.com ) OpenAI's Sam Altman has huge chip ambitions. They might not work ( qz.com ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from Germany, where the labor force has hit a fresh record of 46mln, an increase of ~0.5% YoY. If econ output has shrunk despite this, it must mean that people are working shorter & shorter hours and productivity has not risen much. After all, GDP is number of… https://t.co/d56BHuTqbh " / X ( twitter.com ) Hedge funds reverse bets on Swiss franc  - SWI swissinfo.ch The meltdown in chocolate is coming ( deccanherald.com ) The $11B Tunnel That Could Save One of Europe’s Busiest Mountain Corridors | WSJ Breaking Ground ( youtube.com ) Good grief, looks pretty nasty, check out those pictures Gallery: Storms Disrupt Holiday Travel - Caixin Global 'China has a lot more to lose': U.S. considering sanctioning Chinese firms aiding Russia's war ( cnbc.com ) Chinese Coast Guard Boarded Taiwan Ship After Deadly Boat Incident ( voanews.com ) ‘Stand with me’: Yulia Navalnaya vows to continue late husband’s work | Alexei Navalny | The Guardian Zurich High Court overturns verdict against Pierin Vincenz - Blick >>> The Zurich High Court overturns the verdict against ex-Raiffeisen boss Pierin Vincenz. As a spokesman for the higher court explains at the request of Blick, it is not a judgment in terms of content. Rather, the judgment of the District Court of Zurich had been overturned due to "serious procedural errors" Crude WTI

President's day and Week ahead : NDVA reports on Wed (stock up 45% since they reported on 21t Nov - Vol simply a +/- 11% move in the stock), Traders no long expect FED to cut rates in May and switched to June. Approx 90 bps of cuts are now priced in for 2024, down from 137 bps expected before the Jan. 30-31 FOMC meeting >>> Highlights this week include Flash PMI data, the PBoC MLF and LPR rate decisions, alongside minutes from the FOMC (Wed), ECB and RBA >>> bottom line 2024 consensus challenged, blown to pieces really, 3 FED cuts instead of 6 (price at end of dec), will make interesting trading opportunities ! re-accelerating inflation and dissapointing Ai earnings are the 2 big key risks in weeks ahead And most likely by mid March : Morgan Stanley: Biden's red hot Government Spending and Fiscal Stimulus ends when the Reverse Repo runs out Why the Fed now finds itself on a collision course with the 2024 election The GS sentiment indicator that measures positioning across various investors finally crawled back to "stretched " which should indicate lower returns going forward. Not a sell-signal per se, but "in the zone". MS : ''1y ago, discussed the ever-growing divide between the haves and have-nots. This divide was not limited to consumers but included corporates as well. Fast forward to today, and it appears this gap has only gotten wide Thousands rail against Mexico's president and ruling party in 'march for democracy' Call to urgently revive Theresa May’s plan for EU-wide defence treaty The S&P 500's streak of 14/15 green weeks ended last week One under appreciated economic negative from Brexit was its all consuming nature - years of endless political argument and energy annihilating negotiation in which nothing else got done Natural gas prices plunge as US set for warmest winter on record, good news*, the overall cost of energy is on a downward trend, but electricity remains stubbornly sticky French finance minister announces €10 billion in spending cuts for 2024 . Bruno Le Maire on Sunday said that the country's 2024 growth forecast has been revised down from 1.4% to 1.0% Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service annual report reveals Russia’s confrontational path >> Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said conditions are not right for peace talks to end Russia’s war on Ukraine and also interesting development here : Denmark has decided to transfer all its artillery to Ukraine Agriculture is becoming a key battleground in a global culture war over money, food and climate change China's central bank signs 40 currency swap agreements with foreign counterparts Why the Fed now finds itself on a collision course with the 2024 election ( yahoo.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "The PBOC has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with more than 40 foreign central banks, according to a recent PBoC report, of which 31 "are in force" (which I assume means involves actual drawdowns) with a total scale of about 4.16 trillion yuan. https://t.co/mKdAnFcqTy " / X ( twitter.com ) AndreasStenoLarsen on X: "Why should the Fed cut at all given this chart? Full story -> https://t.co/ALDLvAiV8e https://t.co/0vGiYhTDh6 " / X ( twitter.com ) Farmers’ Revolt Threatens Election Year Upsets Around the World - SWI swissinfo.ch French finance minister announces €10 billion in spending cuts for 2024 ( lemonde.fr ) EU set to fine Apple €500m over music streaming misconduct ( msn.com ) The Long Investor on X: "Bill Gates has done a lot of selling in Q4 2023 Reduced his portfolio by 65% And only holding deep value stocks now, similar to that of Buffett Time to prepare $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/bfMaDFs0Q1 " / X ( twitter.com ) Yahoo Finance on X: "The overall cost of energy is on a downward trend, but electricity remains stubbornly sticky. Infrastructure costs have kept utilities from cutting prices. The industry is estimated to spend more than $100B annually to maintain aging grids and invest in renewable technologies. https://t.co/IQlvRyf2Ed " / X ( twitter.com ) Stagnating Britain faces ruin without radical action ( telegraph.co.uk ) Why it feels so hard to get a job right now ( cnbc.com ) Israel-Gaza live updates: Nasser Hospital no longer 'functional,' WHO chief says ( msn.com ) Starmer says 'fighting must stop now' in Gaza conflict ahead of ceasefire vote | Politics News | Sky News Call to urgently revive Theresa May’s plan for EU-wide defence treaty | European Union | The Guardian UBS Brings in Top Takeover Expert for Monster Trial – Inside Paradeplatz Dissatisfied Citi Forces New Telephone Drill on Private Bankers ( finews.asia ) Liz Cheney turns up the heat on ‘coward’ House Speaker Mike Johnson | The Independent Donald Trump's Debt and Legal Troubles Make Him Unfit for Office: Ex-Ally ( newsweek.com ) Truckers for Trump are refusing to drive to New York City after $350m fraud ruling ( yahoo.com ) Donald Trump and Joe Biden Get Confused Again ( newsweek.com ) Thousands rail against Mexico's president and ruling party in 'march for democracy' ( msn.com ) Alexei Navalny's wife in Brussels after her husband's death | 24 hours ( 24heures.ch ) Russia threatens to unleash ‘entire arsenal on London if it loses war in Ukraine’ | Evening Standard Putin Plans to Boost Russian Military Presence on NATO’s Border ( msn.com ) China’s Wang Says Time Isn’t Right to Talk Russia-Ukraine Peace ( yahoo.com ) Denmark to send its ‘entire artillery’ to Ukraine, country’s prime minister says | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com )

OpenAI is reportedly making its own search app to compete with Google/Thread CRE crisis - Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG said it's bracing for an ongoing decline in commercial real estate Why does rising inflation (i.e., CPI) mean little for US stocks? ..The Fed is actively allowing QE to happen right now, by allowing the USD's they printed into the RRP account 2020-22 to drain, which is being used to buy UST's / Thread Weak UK GDP, technical recession, and today ''Strong January retail sales raise hopes UK already ‘moving out of recession’'' >>> volatile consumers, up & down data JPMorgan Chase , the largest bank in the world (and State Street), has announced that they are abandoning the UN-backed climate group Climate Action 100+ JPM “.. Our central case remains that equity upside is limited from here, constrained by the fact that investors equity allocation globally is approaching the post-Lehman high seen in early 2015.” A tempestuous day in multiple courts deepens Trump’s legal imbroglio ECB's Schnabel : We must be cautious not to adjust policy stance prematurely Russia has obtained a ‘troubling’ emerging anti-satellite weapon , White House says Von der Leyen says European Commission will seek to boost defence production , Zelensky visiting Berlin today Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Friday that a weak yen has its merits and demerits although he was concerned about the negative aspects of a weak currency, he even added 'difficult to identify the cause of a weak JPY'... Markets , big caps 'slightly down' yesterday ( #AAPL $180 support area pretty big technically-chart below) and QQQ up, risk continues to rotate around, as U.S retail sales were softer than exp (UK sales stronger in contrast), U.S markets, DAX, Nikkei all time highs (recession calls ? no-one seems to care) . FXland, JPY should stay weak(er) much depends on BoJ circus, BTC, crude, Gold, Silver up yesterday soonest yields don't go up, fairly typical reaction. Crude WTI approaching $80 again on nevus geo politics, last thing Mr Market needs a higher inflation risk on energy/crude prices... US retail sales declined in January by much more than expected ( msn.com ) A German bank says it's preparing for the worst property crisis since '08 as commercial real estate distress spreads ( msn.com ) The involvement of German banks in the US real estate market | Börsen-Zeitung ( boersen-zeitung.de ) A lot of very questionable things been going on under the bonnet ! Egypt setting up area at Gaza border which could be used to shelter Palestinians, sources say | Reuters Live updates | Biden warns Israel not to attack Rafah without plan to protect civilians ( msn.com ) Ukraine Russia war: US warns Avdiivka could fall - BBC News Trump faces a $370m fine. How would he pay it? ( msn.com ) Trump ‘Hush Money’ Case: What To Know About Ex-President’s First Criminal Trial Next Month As Judge Sets Schedule ( msn.com ) A tempestuous day in multiple courts deepens Trump’s legal imbroglio ( msn.com ) Gordon Johnson on X: "1/2 Why does rising inflation (i.e., CPI) mean little for US stocks? Simple. The Fed is actively allowing QE to happen right now, by allowing the $ they printed into the RRP account 2020-22 to drain, which is being used to buy @SecYellen's bonds. https://t.co/7IfCgyxxJu " / X ( twitter.com ) Nicely put together is plain english Squawk on the Street on X: "Satori Fund's @DanielTNiles breaks down the #Mag7 stocks: the fantastic four on the long side and the rest on the short side with @SaraEisen, @CarlQuintanilla & @DavidFaber. https://t.co/GhOrAVhfFZ " / X ( twitter.com ) Von der Leyen says European Commission will seek to boost defence production - FT ( msn.com ) Russia has obtained a ‘troubling’ emerging anti-satellite weapon, White House says ( msn.com ) Putin says ‘more predictable’ Biden a better choice for US than Trump | The Hill Strong retail sales raise hopes UK 'moving out of recession' ( cityam.com ) NatWest profits boom sets up government stake share sale | Evening Standard finally some good news for government's coffers By-elections LIVE: Sunak suffers Wellingborough-Kingswood double blow as Starmer admits ‘bumpy’ Rochdale campaign | The Independent JPMorgan, State Street leave major investor climate group ( msn.com ) Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sells Apple stock, buys Chevron ( qz.com ) Short-Seller Hindenburg Attacks Temenos ( finews.asia ) Elon Musk's Tesla stake surges closer to demand to build AI, robots ( qz.com ) Rowan Cheung on X: "Historic day in AI. First, OpenAI changed the AI video world and Google made enormous progress in LLM capabilities. Then we saw huge developments from Meta, Slack, CodeSignal, X/Grok, Microsoft, University of Michigan, LangChain, and Magic. Here's EVERYTHING you need to know:" / X ( twitter.com ) OpenAI is building its own search engine to compete with Google ( qz.com ) Coinbase rides bitcoin ETF frenzy to first quarterly profit in two years ( msn.com ) The Pain in Silver & Gold Is Almost Over | Sprott Money Canada Patience they say! Urs Rohner's mysterious gold dealer breaks down tents in Zurich – Inside Paradeplatz Life along the closed land border between Finland and Russia | Euronews Macau’s Magic is Back ( finews.asia ) Swiss train hostage gives account of fatal drama  - SWI swissinfo.ch Very close to 'home' - good grief AAPL - $180 area key - one of the 'shorts' within the Mag 7

SpaceX blasts private firm's lunar lander into orbit, few tense days now ! ahead of touch down on 22nd Feb Stronger 0.4%MoM core CPI is not an aberration. The US economy has entered a new regime where inflation is on a higher plateau (normalization), leading FOMC to keep rates 'high for longer' Druckenmiller dumped shares of Alphabet, Amazon and Broadcom while scooping up shares of beaten-down gold miners Barrick Gold and Newmont, Berkshire sheds some holdings, mum on new investment UK & Japan ''recession'' alarms, as NIKKEI hits near all time highs (only 'just' short of the1989 highs at moment) Forecasters who translate the CPI into the PCE are currently tracking January core PCE to rise 0.3%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 2.7 % But these figures are preliminary and could change after the PPI is released on Friday NatGas prices hitting 3year lows, not too far off 25y lows (good news!) Train review: What it’s like to ride the Venice Simplon-Orient-Express New Zealand central bank governor Adrian Orr has issued a warning about crypto currencies such as stablecoins, saying they are no substitute for fiat money Markets : Equity markets didn't stay down for long at all ! soonest it got quiet yesterday, VIX went straight back down, and markets came back gradually.. BONDS - flatter, coming back fairly easily too Nick Timiraos on X: "Forecasters who translate the CPI into the PCE are currently tracking January core PCE to rise 0.3%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 2.7% But these figures are preliminary and could change after the PPI is released on Friday https://t.co/mZzZMYOmHJ " / X ( twitter.com ) JPMorgan Asset Management quits climate action group ( ft.com ) UK economy fell into recession at the end of 2023 ( msn.com ) 0.1 here and there will not make much of a difference to most folks but there you go Japan is no longer the world's third-largest economy as it slips into recession ( msn.com ) BoJ will send the hawks from time to time but will simply do nothing then... Markets 'overly optimistic' on rate cuts, managers warn - FTAdviser TSMC shares hit record high after Morgan Stanley lifts client Nvidia's price target on AI chip demand ( msn.com ) Druckenmiller dumps Alphabet, Amazon and Broadcom; Nvidia remains largest holding - MarketWatch Holger Zschaepitz on X: "There seems to be no stopping #Nvidia's scorching rally. The day after surpassing the market value of #Amazon, the chip giant has now overtaken #Alphabet as well. Nvidia's stock has climbed ~49% YTD and added some $602bn in value, BBG has calculated. https://t.co/5pshHsojHM " / X ( twitter.com ) Dividend Growth Investor on X: "Warren Buffett's Portfolio Holdings at Berkshire Hathaway updated as of 12/31/2023 https://t.co/5yH6ff0prc " / X ( twitter.com ) Berkshire sheds some holdings, mum on new investment ( msn.com ) How The Richest Democracy in the World Abandons Americans ( hartmannreport.com ) New Zealand Central Banker Slams Stablecoins as ‘Oxymorons’ ( yahoo.com ) SpaceX to take 100 Starlink satellites out of orbit ( qz.com ) Moon launch live: SpaceX rocket launches for moon's mysterious south pole | Science & Tech News | Sky News and OSINTdefender on X: "On February 9th, the Cosmos-2575 Mission was launched by Roskosmos using a Soyuz-2 Rocket carrying an “Unknown Payload into Space for the Russian Ministry of Defense.” https://t.co/Ppdsogf8Y7 " / X ( twitter.com ) OSINTdefender - The National Security Threat reportedly involves the Russian Military attempting the Deployment of Nuclear Weapons into Space for use against Satellites. At least one killed and 21 injured in Kansas City Chiefs parade shooting | Kansas City Chiefs | The Guardian Limiting litigation funding will prove we learned nothing from the Post Office scandal ( cityam.com ) This looks just amazing Train review: What it’s like to ride the Venice Simplon-Orient-Express ( cnbc.com )

MoF against what they described as rapid and speculative yen moves overnight when the Japanese currency broke past 150 yen, undermining the trade-reliant economy >>> need to walk the talk if they really want to change anything in a relative strong USD world USDollar stays firm(er) as rates finally diverge (EZ growth downgrades, UK mix - higher wages, unch inflation, U.S rates up a decent 15bps yesterday!.. #TLT #duration under pressure) Following stronger data, ISM, NFP and U.S CPI now, market pricing for 2024 Fed rate cuts has fallen from around 150+bps at end-2022 to around 90bps now BofA Feb Fund Manager Survey: Investors are the most bullish in 2 years; cash lvl's cut to 4.2% with growth expectations at 2y highs; investors aren't predicting a recession for the first time since Apr'22; long magnificent 7 is the most crowded trade since Oct'22 The Mag 7now have a higher market cap than the entire stock markets of Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Mexico COMBINED! .. MS : “.. EV sentiment is extremely negative … and will eventually deteriorate further, in our view. .. Our clients want our auto companies to do a combination of 4 things: spend less, spend slower, spend smarter, and return cash.” Germany to lower 2024 economic growth forecast ECB’s De Guindos: Potential Growth Very Likely To Slow In Future - Economic Activity Likely To Have Stagnated In Q4 VIX calls buying : 1.27mio VIX calls traded yesterday, similar levels to Jan 12th and probably even to Oct level of 1.37mio, after that it's 1.65mio during regional banking 'crisis' last March Jeff Bezos could save $600 million this year thanks to his move to Florida . The billionaire avoided Washington state's 7% capital gains tax on a recent sale of $2 billion worth of Amazon stock Lyft’s stock had a bonkers after-hours rally , rocketing upwards of 60% higher at one point — then quickly contracted before settling to still-solid gains of around 16% Another on of those 'stat' : The number of weekly increases in the S&P 500 is the most overextended it has been in over 50 years Markets : U.S CPI resetting expectations on FED cuts for 2024, market aligning to FED dot plots slowly but surely , rates sensitive areas got hit (Russell etc), main market looked set for a pretty weak close, till a last hour rally from around 4'920 to 4'960 SPX, driven by QQQ as usual, NVDA was flat on the day, they report next week! USD firmer as it should still on 'high for longer' high plateau for rates (as unlikely as it may be, the big risk is a couple of Fed members start to argue for a hike..) Japan warns against rapid, speculative yen falls | Reuters UK inflation rate remains at 4% | Business News | Sky News Number of rate cuts will depend on inflation data, ECB's Lane says | Reuters Monetary policy, financial stability and medium-term growth in the euro area ( europa.eu ) Very nicely put together by the excellent Althea - Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Hotter-than-expected CPI doesn't bode well with an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. - Headline 3.1% vs 2.9% exp. - Core 3.9% vs. 3.7% exp. ⚠️10y yields bounce to test weak resistance at 4.28%. If they close above 4.2%, they will likely continue their rise to 4.4%. https://t.co/pncEQpdoD7 " / X ( twitter.com ) Those expecting cuts really want this trend to continue ! Charlie Bilello on X: "Shelter CPI has now moved down on a YoY basis for 10 straight months, from a peak of 8.2% in March 2023 (highest since 1982) to 6.0% today. Given its long lag vs. real-time rent data, a continued move lower is expected which should lead to a continued decline in core inflation. https://t.co/jTufhssAki " / X ( twitter.com ) And this is NOT good news Alf on X: "This is supercore inflation - a measure of sticky inflationary pressures Powell & Co often refer to: - It slowed down vertically towards ~3% until the end of last year - But since then it has now accelerated rapidly to 5.5%! This isn't good news for markets. https://t.co/1MlJPjGCuF " / X ( twitter.com ) BofA Survey Shows Investors Are All In on US Tech Stock Rally - Bloomberg Exclusive-Germany to lower 2024 economic growth forecast, source says ( msn.com ) Cocoa | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Jeff Bezos could save millions from Florida move as he sells Amazon stock ( qz.com ) Airbnb (ABNB) Q4 earnings 2023 ( cnbc.com ) Lyft’s stock had a bonkers after-hours rally. Was it due to a typo in its earnings release? ( msn.com ) quel joke, how is this still possible in 2024... Leading Swiss machine supplier bets on growth despite industry troubles - SWI swissinfo.ch Kung Hei Fat Choi! ( finews.asia ) What will become of the Julius Baer Monster management? – Inside Paradeplatz Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests | Climate crisis | The Guardian More weather end of the world doom - can't we just admit/say that the planet is changing over pre and next few decades, we all agree that the weather is MUCH more volatile, let's make the most out of it and meanwhile (have to ) adapt, as we should ? You can't force some people to do certain things and pay for them, when few other billions on the planet don't or can't do much about it (diff wealth or economic cycle) Peter Stefanovic on X: "If like me you’ve had enough of the absolute boll**** Rishi Sunak just fed GB News viewers in his “peoples forum” RT these FACTS widely https://t.co/EgALVDAOCl " / X ( twitter.com ) Sadiq Khan says fake AI audio of him nearly led to 'serious disorder' | Evening Standard Indonesia 2024 election: Prabowo leads in unofficial presidential vote count ( cnbc.com ) Pakistan Election Results 2024 Live Updates: 'Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf open to talks with all parties, except PPP, PML-N', says Imran Khan - The Times of India ( indiatimes.com ) Russia Has Lost More Tanks Than It Had Before the Ukraine War: IISS ( businessinsider.com ) NASDAQ100 - Fibo retracement levels from the move since late October 2023

UK Wages excluding bonuses grew by 6.2% in the last three months of 2023 compared with the same period a year earlier ( rate cuts pushed further back ) Trump's comments have thrust the Republican front-runner into the center of a political storm and sent shockwaves throughout the Western military alliance Meanwhile : The CPI for vehicles in China fell by -5.6% in January (year-on-year), back to early 2002 lows (deflation there >>> eventually USDCNH break up ?) India eyes $100bn investment deal with Switzerland and Norwa y German office prices dropped a whopping 10 %, and given the slow-moving nature of the asset class, more declines are coming "Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the centur y. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now. ", while Nigeria, India will be huge gainers over the next few decades Total boss warns governments risk mis-selling energy transition France's farmers are angry. They say they're being strangled by a toxic combination of red tape, trade deals, unrealistic prices and ecological measure s UK's Sunak faces a few tough days ahead , inflation likely showing signs of ticking up tomorrow, then a weak GDP data (light recession calls) and in all likeliness loosing 2 by elections on Thursday too Markets : there is no doubt strong CHF kept/eventually pushed inflation lower, SNB chatter last month was quite clear on CHF , no reason why we can't go to 0.9200 USDCHF, 1.20 GBPCHF (chart below) and 1.0200 EURCH area. Equity markets would notice a firmer U.S CPI (together with strong UK data too) and may well find an excuse to have a correction from these pretty lofty levels, clearly a lot of shorts got 'stretched out' lately. 10's UST well above 4.20+ area heading towards 4.50% >>> strong risk markets (what liquidity issue?), we had a much better/stronger NFP 10days ago, were we to get a stronger U.S CPI, rate cuts will continue to be walked back and risk may well notice eventually (current pricing is down to 4 cuts by Dec 2024 for both Fed and ECB, pretty decent shift from say 2months ago, as Ai related stocks FOMO momentum (mainly) dragged eq indexes to their highs YTD +very much a case of the 'shorts' that got totally smashed lately UK regular wages grow by stronger than expected 6.2% ( msn.com ) -- Unimportant if UK enters shallow recession, Bank of England's Bailey says | Reuters (..dont' expect rate cuts too early..) Swiss franc falls to 9-week low vs dollar after Swiss CPI ( yahoo.com ) Bitcoin price hits $50,000 after more than doubling ( qz.com ) CNBC's Fast Money on X: "Is FOMO driving stocks higher? Evercore's Julian Emanuel dives into the forces driving what he calls a "super-charged momentum market" and where the dangers lie: https://t.co/5zksMQtQ2V " / X ( twitter.com ) Clearly and area of downside risk of high for longer rates Why NYC apartments could become a big problem for NYCB ( yahoo.com ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Passive funds have overtaken active. That’s changed a lot b/c the number of active managers is down a lot, David Einhorn says in MIB podcast: "There’s entire segments now mostly in the smaller part of the market where there’s literally nobody paying any attention...I view the… https://t.co/aMqxEZ5DXx " / X ( twitter.com ) Trump’s NATO comments stir up a political storm as Russia keeps quiet ( cnbc.com ) Total boss warns governments risk mis-selling energy transition | West Observer Difference perspective to the 'soft landing consensus' Bloomberg TV on X: "“I think that there is now a higher than 50% chance that we either have a hard landing or no landing,” Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok says on Bloomberg's Surveillance https://t.co/ghSXeRRFLA https://t.co/zUoiBNmJFI " / X ( twitter.com ) Super Bowl 2024 ads recap: DoorDash, DunKings, Beyoncé and more ( cnbc.com ) Harris says she’s ready to serve amid questions about Biden’s age | The Hill India eyes $100bn investment deal with Switzerland and Norway - SWI swissinfo.ch How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust - WSJ "Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now. " US Commercial Real Estate Push Backfires for German Lender PBB ( yahoo.com ) Will Commercial Real Estate Trigger The Next Crisis? | ZeroHedge Arm Holdings Sees Surge in Options Trading Amid AI Stocks Craze - EconoTimes Softbank owns 90pct of the stocks, probably helped create this massive squeeze, now many calling ARM the next NVDA SoftBank Shares Climb Again With Arm’s Explosive AI Rally ( yahoo.com ) Stellantis is now the final major automaker to adopt Tesla's EV charging standard ( qz.com ) Diamondback and Endeavor merge as oil, energy rivals consolidate ( qz.com ) Behind the blockades: Witness joins France's protesting farmers | Euronews Red tape destroying many small businesses, from farming to finance, much the same, politics favour big businesses! Petition demands better deal for Swiss farmers  - SWI swissinfo.ch GBPCHF - this one has been totally cornered in the doom camp for long while - decent probability of 1.20 - and you have some every decent carry!

Week ahead : likely to be quiet in Asia with Chinese new year, ECB's Panetta hawkish, Eq futures on highs, FED's Kashkari speaks later on today and main event U.S inflation data tomorrow and UK later on NVDA market cap is sup -1- TSLA over the last 2months , up to $1.7trn, 200dma is some $270 lower than current price For the first time in 34 years, the Nikkei jumped above 37,000. The index is now about 5% away from taking out the all-time high set all the way back in December 1989 BofA : " 30-second ad during Super Bowl I (1967) was $37,500, price for Super Bowl LVII $7,000,000 = 185x jump ; nothing keeps pace with Super Bowl inflation but if they could... 6-pack of beer would be $340, gallon of gasoline $61, avg US house price $4.2mn & S&P500 would be 16374" Some 80% of S&P 500 firms are exceeding earnings projection Nato chief says Donald Trump comments 'undermine all of our security' SNB total sight deposits w.e. 9 February CHF 482.3 bn vs CHF 481.2 bn prior IMF's Georgieva says expects interest rates to start coming down from middle of the year Trump is pledging massive China tariffs in a second term that would shrink a $575 billion trade pipeline to practically nothing. Another Biden term won't bring China much relief, either Markets : 10's UST yields near recent 2months highs 4.18% ahead of U.S CPI, equity been on FOMO mode, NVDA the most incredible rise lately, USD stays firm(er), overall sentiment/momentum can swift quickly, watch out if we see a higher CPI print which forces the market to reassess rate cuts expectation over next few months Inflation, retail sales, and corporate earnings: What to know this week ( yahoo.com ) Corporate America’s Surprising Profits Help Propel Stock Rally - Bloomberg Nato chief says Donald Trump comments 'undermine all of our security' - BBC News Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 on X: "Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 12 February 2024. Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/OvlDlvNrbQ #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 https://t.co/8jtMRHj33w " / X ( twitter.com ) New Zealand central bank blames inflation for restrictive policy | Reuters Business confidence 'cautiously' returns as service sector continues recovery ( cityam.com ) Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and there are few signs of hope ( cnbc.com ) Israel's finance minister blasts Moody's downgrade of the the country's credit rating ( qz.com ) Egypt will not oppose Israel's move into Rafah ( telegraph.co.uk ) Rafah: Israel says it will expand its military operations all the way south - BBC News Former PM Alexander Stubb wins Finnish presidency, narrowly defeating ex-top diplomat Pekka Haavisto ( qz.com ) How Marine Le Pen turned respectable (and why you shouldn’t be fooled) – POLITICO The DUP must decide what Brexit they want - or Northern Ireland will be stuck - CityAM Zelensky, Trudeau, other world leaders brace for potential Trump presidency ( axios.com ) How the Chinese markets lost faith in the CCP | The Spectator G.Ma gnus >>> With lunar new year holidays underway, relief for China’s beleaguered stock mkts after last week’s firefighting. But for how long? What might it take for CCP to repair confidence? And will it? How the Chinese markets lost faith in the CCP Trump-Biden 2024 Election Rematch Promises Economic Pain for China - Bloomberg Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Moved to ‘Critical Care’ Unit for ‘Monitoring’ ( thedailybeast.com ) Elon Musk must testify in SEC probe of his Twitter takeover ( cnbc.com ) Passive investors have 'fundamentally broken' the market, David Einhorn says ( msn.com ) This is the No. 1 global city where expats thrive, says new report ( cnbc.com ) NVDA - pretty insane, this is NVDA not any other penny stock

Kung Hei Fat Choi to friends celebrating, happy new Wood Dragon year! 'My memory is fine': Biden shouts at reporters as he defends his mental competence. Special counsel report questions Biden's memory Yellen: It’s ‘obvious’ that empty office buildings will create banking stress and losses, Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell >> because CRE loans are about 30% of small bank assets vs 7% of large banks China Evegrande bond : 99% wiped out for HF's >>> “Authorities are not likely to allow offshore claimants to secure valuable onshore assets while effectively insolvent developers struggle to meet politically tense onshore obligations,”... and they wonder why money not flowing back in China...au contraire, flows moving out via Tether and al U.S has seen a decent amount of layoffs recently (ZH link-article), however...see Threads - how negativity plays in the media, layoffs maybe, but NFP, JOLTS, claims still strong (for now anyway, clearly must be monitored!) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its key rate by a higher than expected 50 bps to 6.25% on February 8, as policymakers reacted to macro-economic figures show that growth is still struggling to accelerate, while inflation is falling fast EV : I'm back in a diesel after 4yrs running both EV & PHEV. What needs to change to get me to go back? good video explanation below Puzzling : With a $3 trillion market cap, Microsoft is twice the size of the entire energy sector in the S&P 500, which generates double Microsoft’s annual free cash flow US firms see best start to February ever in announced buybacks Chinese stocks trading at their highest levels since very early Jan , rescue packaged, short selling bans, disabling the sell button on some uant funds appear to have stopped the pain, for now anyway #contrariantrade Cocoa prices through the roof, Valentine's day 2024 officially cancelled ! Seven stocks (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) added $5.1 trillion to their market cap in 2023, accounting for about 55% of the $9.2 trillion added during the year by all 6658 US firms -SPX500 up vs Copper down is another combination that isn't really common (long-term) Markets : yields grinding higher 10's UST 4.17 (dragging USDJPY higher), Bund yields highest in 2months etc, big UST auction week passed by without troubles, but perhaps the supply will tell eventually >>> BIG Techs totally unbothered, large cap vs small cap (SPX all time highs vs RUT in bear market), growth, Ai vs cash flow, major 'gap' continues to widen to some 15y extremes depending on which ratio you are looking at >>> real question is when is growth overpriced, when is Ai overpriced ?..not too dissimilar to the .com period Czech central bank cuts key rate by 50 bps ( msn.com ) Nick Timiraos on X: "There has been a notable narrowing in views among sell-side banks and other Fed watchers around when the first rate cut occurs. All now see the first cut in either May or June and are nearly evenly divided on that question. There's a wide range on the question of how many cuts. https://t.co/AtlFIKHT8F " / X ( twitter.com ) Yellen: It’s ‘obvious’ that empty office buildings will create banking stress and losses ( msn.com ) Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell ( yahoo.com ) Special counsel report questions Biden's memory ( axios.com ) 'My memory is fine': Joe Biden shouts at reporters as he defends his mental competence ( telegraph.co.uk ) Analysis: How do the EU farmer protests relate to climate change?  - Carbon Brief Despite Mass Layoffs, US Jobless Claims Declined Last Week | ZeroHedge However : ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on X: "People are getting excited about layoff announcements despite Claims, UR, NFP, JOLTS, and all the headline data showing labor market still pretty decent. Here's some perspective on how those headlines were a red herring in 2015, 2022 and 2023. Employment is hiring and firing.… https://t.co/IdfAKB94HR " / X ( twitter.com ) ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on X: "Of the many, many ways that negativity bias plays out in the media: You see big scary layoff headlines every day but you rarely see headlines about hiring. Layoff headlines are best ignored as they are useless anecdotes that should be compared to data tabulating offsetting… https://t.co/BT15MirS8W " / X ( twitter.com ) Evergrande: A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China - Bloomberg Shipping giant Maersk says overcapacity will hit profits, playing down Red Sea disruption boost – The Irish Times Arm becomes Britain's sixth most valuable company after shares rise 50% ( msn.com ) ZKB almost explodes with profits – Inside Paradeplatz Microsoft layoffs at Activision violate merger promises, FTC says ( qz.com ) SoftBank shares extend their surge, pop more than 15% on earnings beat ( cnbc.com ) PayPal shares fall as 2024 forecast clouds promise of turning leaner, more profitable ( msn.com ) Musings on Markets: The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! ( aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com ) Share Repurchases Return With Stocks Hitting Record Highs - Bloomberg I'm back in a diesel after 4yrs running both EV & PHEV. What needs to change to get me to go back? ( youtube.com ) >>>> the whole point about there being no measure of battery degradation hence second hand values have collapsed and so leasing costs go through the roof and sales stop in addition to the much higher insurance costs and outside of Tesla, no proper charging network TLT : tech picture looks weak '''' The technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, often signifies a shift in momentum and investor sentiment''

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. EV demand is decelerating, suppliers are cutting backlogs, fleets are cutting and some consumers are moving back to ICE/Hybrid vehicles . OEMs are being ‘rewarded’ for pulling back on EV spend. It’s become fashionable to be an EV bear.” >>>> the good news is that finally prices are coming down quite substantially for 2nd hand EV cars.. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné on EVs: "You ask people to spend more money to get a car to have the same function that an ICE car. Why should they spend more money? Tell me."... ( and this in a cost of living crisis/struggle...got to bring much cheaper smaller EV models.. should have always been the goal... ) China PPI dipped in Jan for a 16th month, consumer prices see biggest drop since 2009 >>> slipping deeper into deflation The US imported more from Mexico than China for the first time in decades SNAP ! The momentum that has carried the S&P to 5,000 “has few equals in history,” the standout being the Internet-fueled rally off a similar mkt bottom in Oct. 1998 : Evercore’s Emanuel. He sees a host of issues suggesting 1-yr forward returns for stocks of 0% regardless of recession UBS: "There is a narrative that rising equity markets are good, and falling equity markets are bad. This is not true. Fairly valued equities are good, and bubbles or disorderly markets are bad." AI chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard consume an astronomical amount of electricity and water and — or, more precisely, the massive data centers that power them do.. And according to the latest estimates, those energy demands are rapidly ballooning to epic proportions Markets : markets/daily traders been piling up / continue to pile up into calls in the Mag 7, plenty of comments 'this has gone too far', value vs growth, small cap vs growth gap 'highest in 15years' etc, weak market's internals etc..all agrreed..., but what will snap this trend and change its course ? something will snap sooner or later, too hard to tell what/when for now, but it always goes too far in then end. USD should stay firm(er), USDJPY testing BoJ soon again near 150JPY. 30's UST auction tonight, 10's yesterday went quite well AI's Electricity Use Is Spiking So Fast It'll Soon Use as Much Power as an Entire Country ( futurism.com ) old article Nov 2023 but still Michael McDonough on X: "Regional banks generally face higher commercial real estate loan exposure. Not surprising, but worth noting: Exposure map https://t.co/djysdGVWCD " / X ( twitter.com ) US imports from Mexico surpass China ( qz.com ) Michael Santoli on X: "All the divergences that have had people twisted into knots over the past year (mega-cap over equal-weight, large-cap over small, etc.) really date to the mini-bank crisis last March. Possibly relevant as folks puzzle over S&P 500 new highs amid another oddball bank struggling. https://t.co/245x6c6lRu " / X ( twitter.com ) China producer prices dip in January for a 16th month; consumer prices see biggest drop since 2009 ( cnbc.com ) UK workers must accept lower pay deals to help beat inflation, says Bank ratesetter | Inflation | The Guardian >>> nice of you to say Governor! it's an easy message to others ....when you earn at least 600K per year... U.S. Central Command on X: "USCENTCOM Conducts Strike Killing Kata’ib Hezbollah Senior Leader At 9:30 p.m. (Baghdad Time) February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander… https://t.co/Zhkjimx5UG " / X ( twitter.com ) Kremlin corrects Tucker Carlson’s claim that no Western journalists tried to interview Putin | The Independent Apple is developing foldable clamshell iPhones - The Information ( yahoo.com ) New Vontobel bosses pull out knives: Up to 300 jobs gone – Inside Paradeplatz ESPN, Fox, Warner Bros. Discovery to launch sports streaming platform ( qz.com ) Snapchat's parent company's stock plunges 35% ( qz.com ) SoftBank earnings Q3 FY 2023 ( cnbc.com ) Orsted to cut jobs, halt dividends, and exit some offshore wind markets | Fortune Europe Nespresso: police track down coke seized in Romont | 24 hours ( 24heures.ch ) Exxon, Chevron and Shell Deliver a Cash Gusher for Investors - Bloomberg Exclusive: EU border agency says stopping migration is impossible | Reuters EU and Spain to sign migration deal with Mauritania as people-smuggling rises – The Irish Times How Trump Uses the Power and Imagery of His Presidency - The New York Times ( nytimes.com ) A reminder : :-) Jim Bianco on X: "This really is a good explanation of banking. https://t.co/EUx3LFYiuc " / X ( twitter.com ) SPX - it is getting towards the top of the band - overdone, hard to argue against that in short-term

ECB's Schnabel : ECB must be patient with rate cuts , lowering borrowing costs risk 'flare up' of inflation >>> ECB was very late to hike rates, chances are they will be late to cut them >>> >>> the biggest surprise of 2024 could very well be that major CB's do not deliver anywhere neat the cuts that are priced in already by markets... Hamas proposes three-stage ceasefire over 135 days, leading to end of war and Saudi Arabia says there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel without an independent Palestinian state German Ind prod fell again in De c, it is now 14% less than at it peak 7y ago NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt has pulled out of the ongoing talks on forming a new Dutch government , saying there is no point in holding any meetings on forming a majority right-wing government ‘A slow fiscal death’ awaits some countries in this ‘decade of debt,’ says economist Arthur Laffer >> U.S Credit card debt has ticked up to another new high of $1.13trn European Wind giant Orsted is out with another pretty weak earnings report India top be the largest source of oil demand growth until 2030 - IEA The farming lobby won: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will withdraw a plan to cut the use of pesticides by 50 %. Slowly, Brussels is rolling back on its green agenda. European elections in June are forcing the change UK’s biggest housebuilder Barratt to buy rival Redrow for £2.5bn Yellen : (hardly a surprise but they admit the problem) - “I don’t want to comment on the situation of an individual bank, but commercial real estate is an area that we’ve long been aware could create financial stability risks or losses in the banking system , and this is something that requires careful supervisory attention" Global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, which would mark the second-highest level on record, the Silver Institute said in a recent report Markets : DAX 17K, equity in general still firm(er), unphased by much, though 'insider' selling in the U.S on highs again, big techs has probably overdone it by now, but sellers need a tigger to sell. USD on firm side going into UST auctions, 10's UST resistance in yield terms 4.10-4.15 area key for curve and QQQ, CHF slightly softer perhaps on Hamas news (charts- our view CHF is about to weaken in med term) and Chinese markets beginning to please those contrarians buyers in Jan 2024 ! EU to withdraw plan to reduce chemical pesticide use ( rte.ie ) ECB must be patient with rate cuts, Schnabel tells FT ( msn.com ) Debt is piling up and it won't end well for the world, economist warns ( cnbc.com ) Ed Bradford on X: "Since the Volcker years, it has been unusual for the curve to remain inverted for so long. Guessing something will have to give soon. Either the long end will sell off or the Fed will cut. https://t.co/IdaCoJgjoU " / X ( twitter.com ) India to be largest source of oil demand growth until 2030: IEA | S&P Global Commodity Insights ( spglobal.com ) Dutch coalition talks collapse as Pieter Omtzigt pulls plug - DutchNews.nl Geert Wilders leadership hopes sink as coalition talks collapse ( cnbc.com ) Seven key takeaways from the US Senate’s border security and Ukraine bill | US-Mexico border | The Guardian Eii Lilly quickly sold $176 million of weight loss drug Zepbound ( qz.com ) Hertz Misses Estimates on EV Fleet Rethink, Plans Cost Cuts ( yahoo.com ) Orsted halts dividends as spirallng losses cast ominous shadow over major projects ( msn.com ) tough investing in the ESG green energy world...without huge subsidies and/or cheap funding it often doesn't add up - only way many of these projects work is if the tax payers pays up! better news here though Wind turbine maker Vestas returns to profit ( msn.com ) Saudi Arabia says there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel without an independent Palestinian state | Reuters China-Africa trade hit US$282 billion in 2023 but Africa’s trade deficit widens, with commodity prices a key factor | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Quartr on X: "$PLTR is surging +30% today after reporting, according to CEO Alexander Karp, "Numbers that just fly off the screen." We've compiled 10 key quotes and slides from the earnings call 🧵 1. Rapid growth driven primarily by developments in AI and LLMs: https://t.co/l1OKhr1Z99 " / X ( twitter.com ) UK’s biggest housebuilder Barratt to buy rival Redrow for £2.5bn | Construction industry | The Guardian Silver could hit 10-year high and outperform gold, says Silver Institute ( cnbc.com ) refer to long-term chart we've posted here a few times, triangle formation, looks ready for a breakout in 2024 ! EURCHF needs to trade properly 0.9550+ to squeeze those CHF longa, GPBCHF 1.12+, USDCHF should head towards 0.9200 again in such a scenario