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The services economy is slowing, too. This is a big deal as services are 77.6% of the US economy! US ISM Services PMI at 51.2 vs 54.4 expectations. The previous reading was 55.1...Every part of ISM Services PMI dropped like a rock, new orders from 62.6 down to 52.2 Almost 30% of the rally in the NDX from March 13 until March 31 was driven by 2 stocks, AAPL and MSFT. Almost 800 of the 1351 points gained on the NDX were from 6 stocks/BBG Mester: “Recent Bank turmoil could lead to tighter credit.” >>> maybe Mester & Bullard should spend more time on recent U.S data which is clearly showing a big stagflation coming The head of Sweden’s biggest pension fund has reassured clients that the firm is financially solid despite a failed investment strategy that wiped out $2 billion in retirement savings Switzerland to cancel, cut Top Credit Suisse Executives’ Bonuses & clawbacks potentially Germany seeks to limit Brussels’ scope on national debt reduction plans.Finance minister Christian Lindner is sceptical about European Commission’s role as fiscal enforcer China's Caixin services PMI for March comes in at 57.8, the highest in 28 months, vs expected 55, previous 55, New orders hit new high since Dec 2020.. in contrast to the U.S "2/3rds of offshore China property bonds currently outstanding are from issuers that have either defaulted or have conducted bond exchange transactions or maturity extensions on their USD bonds" - GS French President Emmanuel Macron urged Xi Jinping to use his influence to help restore peace to Ukraine, saying the Chinese leader could bring all sides together to discuss a way to end the Russian invasion New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios Another central bank pauses as the Reserve Bank of India holds interest-rates at 6.5% Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate - good grief Markets: US Regional Bank stocks have not shown any signs of recovery this week ! UST in collapsing mode this week, deflation risk ! >>> lower rates are good for risk only if inflation follows lower, it may well in months ahead, but we not there yet #EURJPY #USDJPY even #GBPJPY technical set up looking increasingly bearish GOLD testing previous highs, while miners still 30% below fair value and #XAGUSD is still 50pct or so below previous highs in 2011, when there were risk regarding U.S debt ceiling.. sounds familiar ? and since then the US debt has gone up exponentially (elsewhere too mind.. debt is not just a U.S risk..) SPX500 in 'peak mode' going into earnings season, 4100/4200 should remain pretty toppish overall - big picture Special Edition: Generative AI Part 1: what it is and how and whether to gain exposure. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) #AI special Morgan Stanley: ‘Worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate | Fortune The IMF warns that shadow banks that hold nearly 50% of global assets are vulnerable as central banks raise rates to tackle inflation (yahoo.com) (Bloomberg) -- Top Credit Suisse Group AG executives will have outstanding bonuses canceled or reduced by up to half, according to a statement from the Swiss government on Wednesday. After a temporary suspension on March 21, the government said it has now decided that the executive board will have all outstanding variable renumeration to the end of 2022 canceled, while top managers one and two levels below will have theirs reduced by 50% and 25% respectively, according to the statement. The move will affect around 1,000 Credit Suisse employees and amounts to between 50 million and 60 million Swiss francs ($66.3 million). Credit Suisse must also look at potentially recovering bonuses already paid out and to report back to both the Swiss finance ministry and financial regulator Finma on the matter. The government has also decreed that UBS Group AG, which is acquiring Credit Suisse, must amend its own remuneration system so that it takes into consideration non-utilization of the federal guarantee it received when deciding on bonuses for executives, according to the statement. ChatGPT Recommends Massive Allocations In Gold In Its “Recession-Proof” Portfolio - Newstrail.com !! U.S. service sector slows in March; inflation cooling - ISM survey (msn.com) Box B: Scenario Analysis on Indebted Households' Spare Cash Flows and Prepayment Buffers | Financial Stability Review – April 2023 | RBA Elon Musk’s 'Master Plan' Hints at Three New Tesla Vehicles | Barron's (barrons.com) Germany seeks to limit Brussels’ scope on national debt reduction plans | Financial Times (ft.com) Russia's War in Ukraine Latest News Updates: April 6, 2023 - Bloomberg Judy Shelton on Twitter: "Look at the Fed’s latest H.4.1 statement. They are paying 4.9% on $3.4 trillion on bank reserves; they are paying 4.8% on $2.6 trillion in money market mutual funds parked overnight through reverse repurchase agreements. Just think: The Fed is shelling out an annualized $291…" / Twitter The World’s First Octopus Farm Will Have a Cannibalism Problem, Report Warns | VegNews Thoughts?.. Good for him!..A lucky gold digger ! Amateur Australian gold digger finds massive nugget - BBC News Alecta Sweden Pension Fund Chief Tries to Placate Savers Angry Over Losses - Bloomberg The amazing thing is that they have to come out and say it... Nicola Sturgeon’s husband, Peter Murrell, arrested in SNP funding inquiry | Scotland | The Guardian seems he's been released now Minister slams fellow Tory MP Scott Benton as he loses whip for reportedly offering to lobby for gambling firm (msn.com) another one.. Vontobel Terminates Business with Clients Residing in Russia (finews.asia) Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth on Twitter: "The MOVE Index is the bond market equivalent of the VIX Index. It measures the implied volatility of 1-month options from the 2-year note to the 30-year bond. Today's closed was 153.9. The shaded area is inside 2 standard deviations. So, 153.9 above the shaded area means it is… https://t.co/CrZoTxoNUs" / Twitter Montreux Jazz Festival: The birthplace of music legends (theswisstimes.ch) sure is !

Thanks to Harvard University, you can now virtually enter the Great Pyramid of Giza in 3D and 360º - see link below JOLTS sees a big decline. 9.931M vs expectations of 10.5M >>> 2yUST yields quickly dropped about 10bps to current 3.87%, USDollar followed, GOLD setting itself up for new highs, equity markets rallied initially, but 'fatigued' into the close, earnings report and Easter weekend looming (NFP Friday - remember most markets closed though) “The rally in the S&P500 since the beginning of the year has been driven by 20 stocks, the market cap of the remaining 480 stocks has basically not gone up.” Credit Suisse chair Axel Lehmann apologises to angry shareholders at fractious final AGM >>> is it that simple ?. Credit Suisse collapse may put Singapore in the spotlight >>> anecdotally, already has.. >>> today we get the UBS AGM, the story is not over, Finma wants powers to impose fines - higher capital requirements will apply to new UBS White House : (it had to come out...).. given market uncertainty, we do not believe that OPEC production cuts are prudent, we made it clear to OPEC.. (that's because the U.S took too long to refill the SPR..hardly even started by all accounts) RBNZ hikes rates by surprise 50 bps, says inflation still too high What are the criminal charges against Donald Trump?. The former president pleaded not guilty to a litany of alleged crimes in Manhattan district court India rejects China’s attempt to rename places in disputed areas. China renames 11 places in the disputed border region as it claims sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT. It’s the first western country to take action against an AI chatbot, and the ban comes as the country is also mulling limits on the use of English language GOLD prices closing in all time high sin USD terms, senior and junior minors still 20-30% below highs of 2022 >>> the equity part of the market will soon 'have' to start to believe in the move Last few days, undaunted by Market Meltup, Wilson and Kolanovic double down on doom, see stocks retesting 2022 lows >>> many been calling equites down all the way up, we would keep 4100/4200 as a pretty hard level to break ahead of/post earnings reports on valuation ground JPMorgan's Dimon says US banking turmoil not over, sees long repercussions, The world’s most powerful banker wants Congress to think long and hard before taking any ill-advised actions against a financial industry reeling from two of the worst failures in U.S. history Emmanuel Macron to urge China’s Xi Jinping to drop support for Russia over Ukraine war BBG - The German arms industry is a prime beneficiary of global rearmament. Germany ranked sixth in arms exports in 2022, trailing the US, France, Russia, China, and Italy To keep inflation on a sustained downward path to 2% and keep inflation expectations anchored, FED's Mester said she sees monetary policy moving "somewhat further into restrictive territory this year, with the fed funds rate moving above 5% and the real fed funds rate staying in positive territory for some time.” Markets : Crude steady after OPEC+ up move, supply will tighten in months ahead though Inflation is still an issue, clearly. Off the highs, but still too high, this will have implication still to indebted business models in months and years ahead Shaky banking models, only means higher and more expensive credit conditions , cost of capital etc in particularly to weaker credit and higher fees for all ! SPX500 advance should pause if not stall into 4100/4200, ahead of earnings reports, valuation getting stretched, although lower USD and yields giving 'breathing space' to markets USDollar stays weak(er), clearly macro data and rates matter, FX market price action is quick to sell $ on weaker data. CHF, JPY, Gold in tandem GOLD making it's move slowly but surely, perfect storm really, also Gold/Copper ratio clear signal usually of slowdown ahead and/or mild recession, #NEM - Newmount Corp vs #XAUUSD price >>> equity side of things clearly been lagging - chart below Emmanuel Macron to urge China’s Xi Jinping to drop support for Russia over Ukraine war | Financial Times (ft.com) Zelenskyy visits Poland to thank ally and meet Ukrainians | AP News RBNZ hikes rates by surprise 50 bps, says inflation still too high (msn.com) Fed's Mester says rate target will need to go over 5% (msn.com) What are the criminal charges against former president Trump? (qz.com) Trump charged with 34 felony counts in hush money scheme | AP News Jamie Dimon shareholder letter warns against 'knee-jerk' banking oversight | Fortune Credit Suisse shareholders: We 'feel completely cheated' (theswisstimes.ch) Credit Suisse Collapse May Put Singapore in the Spotlight (finews.asia) The world most shorted bank now is TD Bank, Canada's 2nd largest bank, bigger shorts than against JPM, Citi, BoA etc Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Feb JOLTs report bullish for stocks, w/number of job openings dropping 630k to 9.93mln, lowest since May21, a figure Fed is likely going to be pleased with. Largest decreases in job openings in professional & business services (-278k); health care (-150k). (via @knowledge_vital) https://t.co/VNrXb1cJnm" / Twitter Go Inside the Great Pyramid of Giza in 3D | Digital Giza (mused.org) sign-up! The Swiss cantons where expats don’t settle (theswisstimes.ch) Beware! Postfinance Partners With Sygnum Bank to Offer Cryptocurrencies | Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News – FintechNewsCH India rejects China’s attempt to rename places in disputed areas | News | Al Jazeera A new law proposed in Italy would ban English — and violators could face fines of up to $110K - CBS News US job openings fall below 10 million for first time since 2021: Report (business-standard.com) Could oil prices hit $100 per barrel again? We ask the experts (cityam.com) let's hope not, won't help bring inflation lower! #NEM - Newmount Corp vs #XAUUSD price >>> equity side of things clearly been lagging

Finland is today set to become the 31st member of NATO, completing a tumultuous process of accession sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that upended the European security landscape "SPR releases in the US and in France, and the refusal to refill the US SPR in fiscal year 2023 (although WTI reached lows that were previously characterized as sufficient to refill) contributed to the OPEC+ decision to cut" - GS >>>> the timing of OPEC+ to maximum pain is almost perfect ECB Warns of risks posed by €1 Trillion Real Estate Funds (it's already moved a lot but ok..) UBS : Ermotti said 7years ago that there was only space for -1- big bank in CH. Had Credit Suisse not been sold to UBS, it would have gone bankrupt next trading day, causing global financial crisis, SNB's Schlegel said >>> AGM today - link to Webcast below BERIT : Blackstone clients asked to pull $4.5bn from a closely followed real estate fund in March, even as the firm’s executives were promoting investment opportunities in the sector that they said would arise from US economic turbulence, only $666mio were allowed to be withdrawn >>> money travels fast from one pocket of liquidity to the next, it's not all as easy as transferring cash from one bank account to a MM Fund, using a mobile phone.. After Italy, Germany considers banning ChatGPT cver data privacy issues Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP growth tracking is down to 1.7% vs the 3.5% est less than two weeks ago. Notably weaker momentum as we head into Q1 earnings season, ISM was pretty weak yesterday coming in at 46.3 - lowest since May 2020 Trump flies to New York, gets ready for historic arrest Markets : Crude, as argued last week, one way or another, after #capitulation - it's time to step in USDollar remains soft(er) after weaker data, US yields dropped yesterday on weaker U.S data with 2y UST back below 4% area Equity's momentum as we pick up Q2 remains firm, still a few too many shorts out there ahead of Easter week-end possibly, seasonality and low vols helping clearly, earnings reports next.SPX500 resistance around 4100. DAX just 500points off all time highs set in late 2021 - amazing Generalversammlung – Credit Suisse (credit-suisse.com) RBA makes surprising decision on official cash rate (brokernews.com.au) And..Australia bans TikTok on government devices over security concerns After Italy, Germany Could Block ChatGPT Over Data Security Concerns (news18.com) Macro Digest Confusion reigns supreme | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Steen's latest / Summary: The sudden demise of Silicon Valley Bank and ensuing turmoil in banks has laid bare the vulnerabilities of many banks and the risk that rising bank funding costs will impact the credit cycle and bring recession risks dramatically forward. But expectations for both the speed of the incoming economic impact and for the Fed to cut rates already in Q3 looks unrealistic. JPMORGAN: “Any decline in yields is not a sign that the FED is about to bring a punch bowl .. but rather a sign that recession probability has increased. .. we believe stocks are set to weaken for the remainder of the year and one should be [underweight] from here.” [Kolanovic] Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth on Twitter: "ISM is out today at 46.3, the lowest since May 2020, the month after the COVID recession ended, ISM started surveying in 1948. As this chart shows, this is the 16th time the ISM has been 46.3 or lower. 12 (75%) of these instances, the economy was either in recession or about to… https://t.co/5Pw5zfFOrs" / Twitter Blackstone fund hit by $4.5bn in withdrawal requests despite property pitch | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> Blackstone restricting redemptions on their flagship real estate fund (BREIT) for the 5th month in a row and effectively locking the door for investors that want out. Manhattan real estate sales plunge 38%, but cash deals hit record (cnbc.com) Il y a sept ans, Sergio Ermotti planifiait déjà le rachat de Credit Suisse | PME Finland to join Nato military alliance on Tuesday - BBC News Where Have All the Deposits Gone? Do We Really Need Federal Deposit Insurance? | LinkedIn Israel beats Scotland to win world's best single malt whisky (cityam.com) Whaoo, who would have thought !!? Virgin Orbit: Richard Branson's rocket firm files for bankruptcy - BBC News Defiant Trump flies to New York to ready for historic arrest of ex-president - IBTimes India Investec and Rathbones set to merge in creation of a £100bn wealth management firm (cityam.com) DAX was around 12K in early October 2022 - what a rally

Inflation changed everything (early 2022 warnings..), which was always going to bring a bond sell-off, higher volatility (peak vol March 2023..) and market uncertainty. Our systematic approach to balance-sheet analysis helped us select solid investment opportunities for our clients, and avoid the pitfalls of highly indebted balance-sheets

OPEC+ announces surprise oil cuts, while U.S. calls the move inadvisable."Saudi officials are at pains to say they don’t have a particular price target. But from their actions it’s clear Riyadh wants to keep Brent crude as close to $100 a barrel as it can." CS : Credit Suisse Generalversammlung could/should be pretty lively tomorrow, live-Webcast access below in link.. >>> in the week ahead we also get RBA to hike a final 25bps tomorrow (to.385%), as per current expectations, same for RBNZ. Trump will be arrested tomorrow and note U.S NFP in on Good Friday (markets closed) Swiss prosecutor opens probe into Credit Suisse takeover. Investigation will examine potential breaches of criminal law by officials, regulators and bank executives. Good news in inflation front : Consumer prices increased last month by 2.9% year on year, down from 3.4% in February, marking the 13th month in succession that price increases have exceeded the SNB's 0-2% goal and Switzerland March manufacturing PMI 47.0 vs 48.9 expected Can Central Banks really achieve a) price stability b) maintain economic growth and c) have financial stability at the same time?... would love to believe they can, but I suspect that's ''mission impossible'' Tesla made a record number of deliveries in the first quarter. Globally, the EV maker near00K cars, an increase that came after it cut prices in January to boost demand Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the future of AI / Lex Fridman Podcast Scientists find deepest fish ever recorded at 8,300 metres underwater near Japan This move signals Saudi Arabia “will seek to short circuit further macro sell-offs & that Jay Powell is not the only central banker that matters…Washington & Riyadh simply have different price targets for their key policy initiatives:” RBC’s Helima Croft Trump clearly not been quiet about his arrest, he camera is on him and he loves it Whopping 82% of Berlin’s voters refused to support 2030 climate neutrality Markets can debate all they want whether FED and other CB moves in March were QE or not, the fact is Nasdaq 100 and the combined balance sheet of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan moved in tandem.. Markets : Crude prices jump about 10% on OPEC+ move overnight, prices still up about 5% or so, was inevitable.. and can almost be sure the U.S SPR has not been refilled yet.. SPX continues to trade trapped inside the big 3850/4200 range. Lot of money has been lost by people trying to push momentum both ways. Short term resistance at 4100, support at 4000 Bonds on the backfoot as we start Q2, rising in tandem with crude prices USD remains soft, CHF should weaken (inflation lower and safe haven bid weakened by recent events), but technically, USD sub 0.9150 CHF is clearly bearish USD (maybe best via EURCHF or even GBPCHF). FXEMG doing ok, bar few usual suspects. JPY focus in Q2 with possible YCC move (BoJ should NOT wait till yield shit 50bps again..) Generalversammlung – Credit Suisse (credit-suisse.com) Who are Credit Suisse's biggest losers in the UBS takeover? (qz.com) Julius Baer CEO warns Switzerland not to jeopardise status as banker to super-rich | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> Rickenbacher said that the Swiss financial marketplace was an “outstanding ecosystem” but was being tested. “It is obvious that Swiss banks being in the international press is adding to this pressure and we as Swiss bankers have to respond.” UBS May Cut Up to 30,000 Jobs (finews.asia) Swiss inflation eases in March as fuel costs fall (msn.com) Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the Future of AI | Lex Fridman Podcast #367 - YouTube >>> nearly through it...well worth a listen!!..they talk about it all , excitement, share programmers and geeks and it's terrifying prospects of AI more broadly speaking.. OPEC+ announces surprise oil cuts, while U.S. calls the move inadvisable (cnbc.com) Analysis: Saudi prince pivots to peace after years of war | AP News Tesla reduces prices of Model S and Model Y (qz.com) Tesla Rival Lucid Has Really Bad News About Its Electric Vehicles - TheStreet Twitter's debt and value have plunged painfully since Elon Musk takeover: sources (nypost.com) Firm at centre of Sunak conflict of interest row attended Downing Street event | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian Sanna Marin concedes defeat in Finland election as centre-right Orpo claims victory (msn.com) Plan to end grazing on Dartmoor ‘threatens ponies’ (thetimes.co.uk) Why ?..we should stop interfering US economic data could drive gold even higher (thearmchairtrader.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany where rate shock is hitting housing mkt. Volume of new mortgages more than halved in Feb2023 YoY. 54% decline is worst on record. Total new mortgage business of €12bn is lowest in >12yrs, does not even take into account inflation https://t.co/AiEkzSetOf https://t.co/4ih9tOc9MJ" / Twitter Could London be next? Paris bans e-scooters after mini referendum (cityam.com) Sacre bleu ! DeSantis faces political peril with Trump indictment | The Hill Scientists find deepest fish ever recorded at 8,300 metres underwater near Japan | Fish | The Guardian Berlin vote in favour of tighter emission target fails – EURACTIV.com Whopping 82% Of Berlin’s Voters Refused To Support 2030 Climate Neutrality SPX500 - choppy big range - a lot more going on underneath though, NQ also benefited greatly from larger Central Bank balance-sheet, whether its QE or not, never mind

It's worth remembering that in March 2020, investors trying to quickly pull their money out of money market funds nearly wrecked the financial system and forced the Fed to step in. Now there's a record amount of money in MMFs/Thread >> March Madness over, a reminder for markets/investors/funds to do their due-diligence (don't rely on others..), better risk management (there is always some risk..) and less leverage going forward, these markets always prone to 'unlock' at any time and create opportunities! Prices paid component with Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index continued to fall in March, emphasizing that maximum inflation-/supply-chain pressures are in past / Thread, JPM now sees Headline CPI YoY falling under 4% by the July print France bought 65,000 tons of LNG using the Chinese yuan, the liquified natural gas was bought from the UAE Former Credit Suisse chairman Urs Rohner says he will not be returning any of the CHF52 million he earned while working at the failed bank Citi US economic surprises index has basically been printing new recent highs on a daily basis since mid January. You don't trade SPX on the back of the CSI, but that gap still looks very wide.. Significance of Jack Ma’s Reappearance Should Not be Underestimated Turkish parliament ratifies Finland's NATO accession as Sweden kept waiting BOJ's Ueda could shake Global Financial markets by changing Kuroda policy >> Q2?, mixed data, but Tokyo core CPI beat expectations 3.4% vs 3.2% Kashkari Says unclear if SVB collapse will cause Credit Crunch >>> no, it doesn't have to, but what is clear stress will lead to credit contraction, more expensive financing for 'weak balance-sheets', if it gets big then it will become deflationary over time.. A grand jury in New York has indicted former President Donald Trump in relation to a "hush money" payment to Stormy Daniels US urges Americans in Russia to leave "Immediately" Disney cuts metaverse division under Iger's restructuring Markets : U.S 1year CDS much talked about - all time highs >>> clearly some 'hedging' going on related to long-end and debt ceiling risk towards end of Q2 #XAGUSD needs to clear $24-25+ and it could be super interesting for the bulls (chart below) USDollar mixed but broadly speaking softer into month-end, with CROSSJPY's higher (higher yields, riskon and BoJ policy which remains far from clear cut..) SPX500 is higher than it was a month ago, after this banking crisis.. (only few badly managed names went down..no depositors lost money..), and is up about 5-6% YTD >> and a whole lot more going underneath with mega caps, NQ, financials, energy, rotations galore! Crude has stabilized, off 'capitulation' lows from 2weeks ago If market is right on Fed, the economy has to nosedive, and fast. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) 15mins as usual well worth listening - charts in there too United States CDS 1 Year USD Bond Chart - Investing.com Chart >>> all about debt ceiling, and perhaps you add all the talks about 'long usd decline' etc etc which has been talked about for the last 20y, in fact for ever really... maybe it''ll be different this time, stay tuned! #XAU etc... Turkey’s parliament ratifies Finland’s Nato membership amid alarm over Russia’s Ukraine invasion - Independent.ie Leeb – JP Morgan’s Massive Gold Derivative Short Position May Be Larger Than The Bank’s Assets | King World News Dani Burger on Twitter: "It's worth remembering that in March 2020, investors trying to quickly pull their money out of money market funds nearly wrecked the financial system and forced the Fed to step in. Now there's a record amount of money in MMFs. https://t.co/TvZxE3aa46" / Twitter This is what Yellen is worried about Yellen says US bank rules may be too loose, need to be re-examined | Reuters Credit Suisse Cuts Transformation Awards (finews.asia) Can't believe they even thought about doing it !!! BOJ's Ueda Could Shake Global Financial Markets by Changing Kuroda Policy - Bloomberg Still remains a risk for Q2 - best guess something happens over next few months, no better time to abandon YCC now that 10y JGB yields are 32bps... (don't do when its 50 and on ceiling..) US urges Americans in Russia to leave "Immediately" - Mehr News Agency Opinion: Significance of Jack Ma’s Reappearance Should Not be Underestimated - Caixin Global / slightly slower data overnight - Manufacturing PMI 51.9 in March vs 52.6 in Feb China completes first yuan-settled LNG trade | Nasdaq Gold bull market to push for record highs - fund manager Eric Strand | Kitco News The overall market has priced in the 'higher for longer' risk in rates, from here #XAUUSD mostly has tailwinds coming its way, might have to be patient, as usual etc... Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Prices paid component with ⁦@RichmondFed⁩ Manufacturing Index continued to fall in March, emphasizing that maximum inflation-/supply-chain pressures are in past https://t.co/RdOozaR58M" / Twitter - chart Revolut’s board frustrated by fintech company’s response to audit warning | Financial Times (ft.com) CS exec: I’m not giving my paycheck back (theswisstimes.ch) Bankers found guilty of helping to hide Putin’s millions by Swiss court | Financial Times (ft.com) Sam Bankman-Fried Pleads Not Guilty To New Bribery Charge—In An Untucked Dress Shirt (Photos) (forbes.com) Donald Trump latest: Former president expected to surrender in coming days after being indicted | US News | Sky News CBS News on Twitter: "BREAKING: A grand jury in New York has indicted former President Donald Trump in relation to a "hush money" payment to Stormy Daniels. "For the first time ever in American history a former President of the United States has been indicted." https://t.co/mhwoHssZe8 https://t.co/xRRYEkKAns" / Twitter Disney cuts metaverse division under Iger's restructuring (msn.com) XAGUSD long-term - this is where we need to trade for bulls to get exited ! 25+?..

Spain Inflation halves but , core pressures highlight ECB Bind. Consumer prices rose 3.1% from year ago in March; est. 3.7%.Europe’s natural gas costs have sunk back below pre-war levels >>> energy helping clearly, finally, but still, NRW, Germany soft-lower as well, seals a softer EU CPI later on FT-How wild was Treasury trading this month? some great chart in their article, as we said, never been wilder! Credit Suisse whistle blowers say Swiss bank has been helping wealthy Americans dodge U.S. taxes for years, AND...see below...the CS board were planning to award themselves a transformation share award a the AGM, I mean seriously...! Britain secures agreement to join Indo-Pacific trade bloc. The U.K. will be the first new nation to join the CPTPP since it was set up in 2018 >> not huge value in terms of trade, but still another step in the right direction! Given how fast money can leave a bank these days electronically --- the bank lines outside in the street in the old days during a run was a form of liquidity management.... cash could only leave so fast... Now, those folks could read some silly comments on Twitter... and move their money (10's of billions..) from their Iphones in minutes-hours... The UK’s ‘green day’ has turned into a fossil fuel bonanza – dirty money powers the Sunak government Thread / As the Fed’s interest-rate hikes sent bond prices plunging last year, some of the country’s largest banks used a simple accounting manoeuvre to help keep billions of dollars of losses from piling up The letter urges technology companies to immediately cease training any A.I. systems that would be “more powerful than GPT-4,” which is the latest large language processing A.I. developed by San Francisco company OpenAI UBS: Kelleher's daring high stakes coup with Ermotti US: FDIC "may lean on the big banks to cover $23bn in failure costs" Goldman's Callahan with some color: "...the MAGMA + NVDA cohort has added a collective ~ $620bn of market cap since the regional bank issues began, which compares to ~ $950bn of collective market cap lost by the remaining 494 companies in the S&P" Central Bankers Warn Companies On Fatter Profit Margins - FT >> is that the job of a central banker ? ECB's Schnabel Says Eurozone Banks Not Seen Deposit Outflows' >> aggregate level, totally true, EUR MM funds are a 3rd of those of the US and depositors are fleeing into longer dated-maturity deposits VIX vs MOVE is at an extreme that suggests the relationship may see some mean reversion. Whether that means MOVE falling, VIX rising, or both. Source: Refinitiv China and France have completed their first LNG gas trade using the Chinese Yuan >> will add to the articles calling for the end of USD dominance etc etc Markets : Banking crisis of March 2023 : 3 badly managed banks went down, SPX500 still 4K, VIX hardly moved, DB CDS story (note CDS markets are SO LIGHT and so easily manipulated..! >>> peak fear was last week, since then we all breathe, plenty of cash on the side, few signs of inflation peaking in few places, that need to be confirmed in Q2..The bad news though is that lending standards will most likely tighten further (again bad for over leveraged names, no real matter to sound, low debt & well managed corporates) USDollar remains 'soft' ish really, never really got a BIG bid on all this risk-off in March either, as it often did in the past years, even EMGFX has remained well behaved in all this SPX500 4K still-again, though a LOT going underneath as usual, big 'recession' rotation, China, KWEB, REITS and so on. Nasdaq heads for one of its best quarters in a decade, up 17% in Q1, oversold + low rates + FED balance-sheet increase all clearly helping GOLD, Silver, copper and crude all stayed firm and/bounce crude futures got ''smocked..''10days ago (all part of the capitulation that went on due to super HIGH vols in rates market..) and here we are again How wild was Treasury trading this month? | Financial Times (ft.com) Never wilder! Credit Suisse whistleblowers say bank has been helping Americans dodge U.S. taxes (cnbc.com) really!!!?? (Dow Jones) -- Credit Suisse Group AG is withdrawing certain proposals it planned to put to shareholders at its annual general meeting in early April, citing the planned merger with UBS Group AG. The troubled Swiss bank said late Wednesday that it is pulling proposals on the discharge of members of the board of directors and the executive board for the 2022 financial year, as well as a separate proposal on a one-time deferredshare-based so-called transformation award for the executive board Britain secures agreement to join Indo-Pacific trade bloc – POLITICO Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak: Pause more powerful A.I. | Fortune and yet.. Musk urges pause on training AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 | Automotive News (autonews.com) MS - Mike Wilson thinks stocks will sell off as investors realise earnings guidance looks unrealistic. This is when the equity risk premium typically reprices and stocks may finally get ahead of the downside Mike sees in earnings estimates… just as bond markets have become dependent on Fed guidance over the past decade, the equity markets have become dependent on company earnings guidance. Given the events of the past few weeks, research thinks guidance is looking more and more unrealistic, and equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates ahead of any hard data changes. This is typically how bear markets end—i.e., P/E multiples fall precipitously and unexpectedly, catching many investors off guard. ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on Twitter: "To anyone who was not trading in 2004-2006 or 2011 or 201& … this dedollarization bullshit shows up every now and then. Don’t worry—it’s pure engagement bait, mostly from people who know better. I’ve linked articles from 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011 and https://t.co/CETPdMjHhr…" / Twitter $$$ downside - this time may be different etc etc or maybe not Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "APOLLO: “.. survey-based and market-based measures of inflation expectations are falling quickly, and the Fed will soon be talking about this as an important reason why they can allow themselves to be more dovish and ultimately start cutting rates ..” [Slok] #FOMC https://t.co/DZgPjmx2q3" / Twitter Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "As the Fed’s interest-rate hikes sent bond prices plunging last year, some of the country’s largest banks used a simple accounting manoeuvre to help keep billions of dollars of losses from piling up via @JonathanWeil https://t.co/InIABI7bte https://t.co/9UWBkVOSID" / Twitter The UK’s ‘green day’ has turned into a fossil fuel bonanza – dirty money powers the Sunak government | George Monbiot | The Guardian sad! The US Soldiers Leaking Nuclear Secrets | Investigators - YouTube so careless ! good grief What's Going On With Enovix Stock Today? (msn.com) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian troops getting 'slaughtered' in Bakhmut (telegraph.co.uk) wild scenes-good grief, make it stop! King Charles III to Speak at German Parliament, Bundestag, During State Visit - Bloomberg NASDAQ - decision time as we start Q2, earnings report! 20% off Dec 2022 lows

Finland is the world's happiest country. Now it's giving away free trips to show travelers why A Single Bet on Deutsche Bank’s Credit Default Swaps Is Seen Behind Friday’s Rout - what a market! so illiquid and nuts as we keep warning folks in single names, when they come into focus, for whatever reason, there is little or no liquidity...CDS seems to be the new game in town doe daily punters.. #BABA plans to split its $220 billion empire into six main units that will individually raise funds and explore initial public offerings, the biggest overhaul of China’s e-commerce leader since its inception more than two decades ago Michael Barr: “SVB failed because the bank's management did not effectively manage its interest rate and liquidity risk, and the bank then suffered a devastating and unexpected run by its uninsured depositors in a period of less than 24 hours.”...all they had to do is manage risk of whether rates went up or not..hummm>>> The Silicon Valley Bank failure brought the health of the US banking sector into question. Large and small banks are very different in the US, especially after the 2008 crisis (Thread below) Depositors have withdrawn 214 billion euros from EU banks over the past five months, with outflows hitting a record level in February: ECB data. The withdrawals in the five months since October have been worth 1.5% of eurozone deposits (..only..). U.S : Small banks' (not in the top 25) deposits fell $125bil last week, $65bil of which went to the top 25 large banks, not good for communities as small community banks will have to tighten credit availability Wildfires in Spain (in March!!..) are a sign of climate emergency, says the country’s PM >>> It was 27 °C in Lisbon yesterday.... Insane "virtually every client conversation reveals that investors expect something else to break in the market though there is no consensus about what that could be" - JPM Swiss Parliament pushed through a 'SolarExpress' program last fall to install lots of solar projects in the Alps. They forgot a few things....see thread below Australia's Feb inflation slows to 8-month low, adding to rate pause case, 6.8% (exp 7.1% and prior 7.4%) Incoming BOJ deputy head brushes aside near-term tweak to easy policy Sweden's real retail sales are down a whopping 9.5% YoY >>> 'the retail sales volume is now back at a similar level as before the pandemic - whaoo Despite banking crisis, GfK consumer confidence Index improved for 6th time in a row, from -30.6 to -29.5 (was +10 pre covid though, so long way to go) BRICS should add new members and counter the dollar's dominance, says Jim O’Neill, who coined the acronym after which the bloc is named UBS' Kelleher: This not a Swiss solution, it's a global solution - see chart below Markets : NQ : clearly mega cap names been benefiting lately, not that positive under the hood /- Thread below. SPX500 retakes 4K, 4050+ would surprise the bears FXland, CROSSJPY's higher with rates bottoming last Friday, perhaps some quarter-end JPY selling and/or JPN lifers keen to buy foreign bonds into the new year.. BONDS - pretty crazy March - extreme levels of implied vols, daily volatily, completely crazy to think a 5mio CDS trade in DN could unravel markets last Friday.. (in a specific credit tranche) >>> PEAK worries, PEAK credit fear last week >>> still doesn't mean its over clearly still some fear in there clearly..it will take a while to heal Crude : we also saw some sort of capitulation sell-off last week, almost undeniable - recovery path from here, the U.S will probably buy for the SPR.. A Single Bet on Deutsche Bank’s Credit Default Swaps Is Seen Behind Friday’s Rout (yahoo.com) UBS re-appoints CEO Ermotti for Credit Suisse takeover - SWI swissinfo.ch Ermotti’s UBS record: solid but not all plain sailing - SWI swissinfo.ch Mark Minervini on Twitter: "Institutional money has been hiding in the old heavily weighted mega cap tech names, and that is propping up the Nasdaq Composite relative to the other indexes. However, when you look under the hood you see that only 20% of Nasdaq stocks are above their 50-day moving average… https://t.co/TL9IcTy8zp" / Twitter A bad day for Putin last 48hours: ⁃China renewed calls for de-escalation in Ukraine today and reminded Russia of its recent opposition to nuclear war days after Putin announced plans to deploy strategic arms in neighbouring Belarus ⁃Hungarian parliament approves Finland's NATO membership bid. ⁃Armenia plans to join the Rome Statute of the ICC ⁃Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark struck a deal to run their 200+ advanced fighter jets as a single fleet ⁃Bakhmut holds, despite all Russian efforts ⁃Russian bid for UN Nord Stream blast inquiry fails -France planning to give 40 Mirage200-9 fighter/interceptor jets to Ukraine -British Challenger Main Battle Tanks have arrived in Ukraine -German Leopard 2 tanks have arrived Eric Basmajian on Twitter: "The Silicon Valley Bank failure brought the health of the US banking sector into question. Large and small banks are very different in the US, especially after the 2008 crisis. Here are some of the differences and problem areas for small US banks 👇 1/" / Twitter Thick smoke clouds fill sky as hundreds of firefighters tackle Spanish wildfire (yahoo.com) It's only MARCH !!!! this is so bad, no much reporting about it all in the media - why ??? meanwhile in California.. its flooding How California floods affect US food prices - BBC News The Swiss Times on Twitter: "Yet another #Greenscam. #Swiss Parliament pushed through a 'SolarExpress' program last fall to install lots of solar projects in the Alps. They forgot a few things: The connection costs of running cables up the mountains is so expensive, few if any of the planned projects would… https://t.co/R7EoYHfsg7" / Twitter Finland gives away free trips to travelers who want to learn happiness (cnbc.com) France prosecutors raid Paris big banks in tax fraud sweep (msn.com) Sacre bleu ! France pension protests - latest: Paris descends into violence as protesters smash shops and riot police storm streets | World News | Sky News Jim O’Neill Urges BRICS Bloc to Expand, Challenge Dollar’s Dominance - Bloomberg What does it mean that India's population is about to overtake China? (cnbc.com) Whaoo Riyadh joins Shanghai Cooperation Organization as ties with Beijing grow | Reuters UBS - been CHF 10 - 20 range for 15years

Vornado's portfolio is concentrated in the nation's key market, New York City, along with the premier asset in both Chicago and San Francisco ( office real estate..) First Citizens purchase of SVB looks like one of the best deal of our time! >>> ''The ten largest deposit accounts at SVB held $13.3 billion in the aggregate'' no exactly you average deposit size.. China’s economic rebound weaker than expected, warns Maersk. One of world’s largest shipping groups says country’s consumers are still ‘stunned’ by Covid disruptions 70-Year-Old ('''70'''....amazing) T-55 Tanks are ‘Expendable’ in Ukraine Bitcoin dropped following news of Binance and CEO CZ being sued by the US CFTC over regulatory violation Financial turmoil will not affect Bank of England’s push to curb inflation, says Bailey, ''have to remain very alert if prices stay firm, monetary policy also has to take into account credit conditions, we we do'' Japan Finance Ministry gives rare nudge to BOJ amid bond worries. With change in offing, official stresses Kuroda remark on 'dialogue with markets' Inflation in UK shops hits record high with more pain to come, prices in stores jumped by 8.9% in the year to March, chocolate, fruit and vegetables all became more expensive EU reaches deal on service stations for EVs, alternative fuels Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he’ll delay a controversial plan to weaken the judiciary following days of unprecedented protests Markets : Crude look to have turned - well off lows - Thread and charts below. ''''Hedge fund sold 1.5x more barrels (part of recent HF unwinding nightmare..) just in 2 weeks than the record SPR did in the entire year. The problem is when funds buy back their shorts, there will be no SPR to offset the buying pressure'''' Bonds still wild, Jun SFR -40bps from Friday highs, May -15, which means market is 50/50 for a May hike again. So 2y UST yields moved from 3.65 lows on Thrusday to nearly 4% now.. #Marchmadness , liquidities atrocious (give size of what these large leverage funds 'need' to turn at time'' ) USDollar remains soft overall, not picking up strength last few days on the back UST moves, ECB staying pretty hawkish, few speakers today again, including Lagarde + BoE'a Bailey SPX500 still around 4K, which is where it was 1month ago, obviously a LOT more going on underneath, massive rotations, financials and so on, 4040 key still - chart below Markets trying to 'breathe' for air, bond vols need to move lower!, looks like we reached the top #marchmadness last week - MOVE index chart below..which will clearly help markets to calm down, banking shares also calming down etc.. Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance Kind of crash mode, see chart, though if you want to be a contrarian... Japan Finance Ministry gives rare nudge to BOJ amid bond worries - Nikkei Asia Shop prices hit record high in March as inflation “yet to peak” (yahoo.com) Even chocolate! damnit ICE BofAML MOVE Index (^MOVE) Charts, Data & News - Yahoo Finance MOVE index IS key Michael Kao on Twitter: "Musings of the Day, 3/27/23: I've been saying that the epicenter of the next crisis will NOT be in the Banking sector and more likely to be in Shadow Banking. This chart from DB corroborates at least the first part of my postulate: https://t.co/ct1z5q7cW3" / Twitter ''''epicenter of the next crisis will NOT be in the Banking sector and more likely to be in Shadow Banking''' but it's complicated, large-small hit in at various levels, depositors schemes, BTFP, discount window all come into play and who you lend to in the end.. Paulo Macro on Twitter: "Update on oil because it does seem to be getting interesting. While I would have liked to really feel the fear & dejection at $65, it’s fair to say we have come a long way down. In fact in the past few weeks we have seen WTI non-commercial net longs drop to decade+ lows: 1/5 https://t.co/e2tuqhFpBp" / Twitter Turn on Crude prices ? Who will replace Andréa Maechler on the SNB’s board? - SWI swissinfo.ch China’s economic rebound weaker than expected, warns Maersk | Financial Times (ft.com) They should know ? Kwarteng stung: Mini budget chancellor offered to set up meeting between fake firm and Boris Johnson for '£10k' (cityam.com) seriously bent! if there was any doubt out there 70-Year-Old T-55 Tanks Are ‘Expendable’ In Ukraine (forbes.com) An independent Russian newspaper—one of the few left in the country—asked some hard questions about those 70-year-old T-54 and T-55 tanks the Kremlin is pulling out of long-term storage, presumably for front-line use in Ukraine. Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao sued by CFTC over trading and derivative violations | TechCrunch Stock Markets: First Citizens made a good deal (cnbc.com) Snapped assets at the right time and at the right level (in the panic it's cheaper) >>> One of the best bank deals of our time! shares up 50% yesterday Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "Gruenberg: The ten largest deposit accounts at SVB held $13.3 billion in the aggregate." / Twitter Amateur Australian gold digger finds massive nugget - BBC News Good for him! EU reaches deal on service stations for EVs, alternative fuels | Reuters Lithium miner Liontown soars as it snubs $3.7 bln Albemarle bid | Reuters North and South agree: we have to build HS2 from Euston to Manchester (cityam.com) Israel Latest: Protesters Clash With Police as Netanyahu U-Turns (yahoo.com) #VNO - US commercial real estate REIT's - this is why markets worried about WHICH banks are mostly involved in this sector, there will be plenty of very bad loans in there..

Money market funds swell by more than $286bn as investors pull deposits from banksGoldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Fidelity benefit from big inflows amid turmoil in financial sector >>> Why would anyone deposit and/ leave money in a bank account yielding close to zero...with U.S money markets yielding over 4%? this is 2023, clients can all act very quickly from their Iphones! no need to queue at the tills to get cash out.. banks only got themselves to blame for not lifting 'deposit rates' higher in recent months..? China’s industrial profits slump deepens on soft demand, high costs..S&P: Our growth prediction of 5.5% for China this year is higher than the country's aim of roughly 5% and is driven by consumption and services. Jack Ma returns to China in sign of political easing on Alibaba First Citizens Bank to buy SVB's deposits, loans from FDIC Israel: mass protests after sacking of minister who opposed judicial overhaul Fed' Bullard raised his outlook for how high interest rates should rise by 25bps to 5.625%, “I would put 80% of probability on the case where financial stress abates," Bullard said, speaking in St. Louis. "If it doesn't abate, that's a completely different world where financial stress gets more intense, and I would be willing to react to that.” US bank trouble heralds end of dollar reserve system. Bank crisis not a credit quality problem but stems instead from now-impossible task of financing America’s ever-expanding foreign debt Probability of US Recession Remains Elevated/The Conference board (chart) Finma Chair Accuses Credit Suisse of Lack of Cooperation Bill Gates / The Age of AI has begun. Artificial intelligence is as revolutionary as mobile phones and the Internet Nato condemns 'dangerous' Russian nuclear rhetoric Novartis: Kisqali Breast Cancer Drug Cuts Risk Of Recurrence The recent Iran-Saudi Arabia deal, brokered by China, heralds a reduced role for Switzerland in the region. China’s success in mediating between the two countries has come as a surprise to many France strikes intensify as anger mounts over retirement age hike Markets : No bank failure, some chatters of government interventions late last week, helped SPX500 flirt with 4K area again >>> broad relief in bank shares this morning too, DB and so on, but heading into quarter-end so beware of (lack) of liquidiities, works both ways mind ! #DB Deutsche Bank cheak enough for a trade ? chart below (and-or a few European banks of your choice..) FXland fairly quiet really in majors relative to bonds. CHF remains firm overall Bonds remain wild, few 'leveraged' CTA/Macro fund casualties (see article below), after those incredible moves seen in March #marchmadness ! GOLD tested $2K - profit taking into quarter-end likely it seems Markets will remain a little wild, lack of liquidities (U.S March payrolls will be on Good Friday..when most markets closed next week), few days of quietness doesn't mean the horizon is clear. It will take a while to heal Quarter-end focus to dominate market flows this week Probability of US Recession Remains Elevated (conference-board.org) Star-Led Hedge Funds Hit by Steep Losses, Stunting Their Comeback - BNN Bloomberg By contrast, last year’s star performers from Pierre Andurand and Said Haidar to billionaire Chris Rokos were hit by double-digit losses and gave up a large part of their gains in a matter of days. One veteran macro trader, Adam Levinson, erased more than the money he’s ever made since he spun off his Graticule Asia macro hedge fund in 2015. The fund is now shutting down. Money market funds swell by more than $286bn as investors pull deposits from banks | Financial Times (ft.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Deposits at US banks posted biggest decline in nearly a year during week when multiple bank failures triggered the latest bout of global financial turmoil. Bank deposits fell by $98.4bb to $17.5tn in the week ended March 15, acc to Fed data released Friday. (BBG) https://t.co/tkscIdwNYc" / Twitter US bank trouble heralds end of dollar reserve system – Asia Times >>> little bit of a pro Gold article long-term..which many will argue is nothing 'really' new, but still.. Fed's Bullard sees more rate hikes as bank stress abates (msn.com) Novartis gets positive result from breast-cancer drug trial (msn.com) Cannabis trial to start in Switzerland (theswisstimes.ch) One step closer to legalization? Advocates say the move could help Switzerland’s economy and undermine the black market for marijuana in the country China's industrial profits slump deepens on soft demand, high costs (cnbc.com) Israel: mass protests after sacking of minister who opposed judicial overhaul | Israel | The Guardian Tidjane Thiam Prefers to Blame Others (finews.asia) Finma Chair Accuses Credit Suisse of Lack of Cooperation (finews.com) The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street’s not for turning (thearmchairtrader.com) Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) The Age of AI has begun | Bill Gates (gatesnotes.com) Switzerland loses two mandates as protecting power - SWI swissinfo.ch Watch: French strikers clash with riot police deployed outside oil depot | Euronews Deutsche Bank - cheap enough for a trade ?

Inflation is still high and US banks need support. Jerome Powell can’t fix one without hurting the other — from here on, and very most likely...? ..and for the first time ever the Fed is going to have to choose.. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to reassure jittery investors that American bank deposits were safe and promised policymakers had more firepower to battle any crisis even as bank stocks resumed their slide on Thursday >>> Run into US money mkt funds continues. Assets rose by another $117bn in past week to hit ATH Biden’s approval rating falls again amid concerns about economy, Poll Finds >>> TikTok ban would be 'a slap in the face' to young Democratic voters, activists warn Financial turmoil complicates central banks’ focus on inflation. Some former monetary policymakers fear narrow focus on damping price pressures could exacerbate panic Hindenburg strikes again, the new Adani is Block UK consumer mood hits one-year high, but financial gloom persists Markets were caught by surprise by Credit Suisse's multi-billion dollar AT1 bond write-off. Banks sound off on the future of the asset class, especially in Asia FOMC, BoE, SNB and Norges Bank all raised 25bps, as expected >>> from here on, the market thinks maybe another 1 hike in some places, a pause, and eventually a cut or 2 in 2024, this assuming inflation moderate back down towards say 4pct towards year-end The Fed has outsourced monetary policy and lost control of the economy, former White House advisor says, Gary Cohn not mincing his words Archegos founder Hwang must face fraud charges, US judge says French protesters vent fury at Macron over pension push UK and EU to seal Northern Ireland Brexit deal - a bit late, but getting there finally ! Gundlach says he forecasts the FOMC will cut rates, substantially, soon (he doesn't think financials calm down..) Markets : FXland, when it's about credit risk, JPY will surge, GOLD not far behind and CHF 2yUST 3.70% - absolutely unreal... not too long ago it was 5% Equity markets, banks much in focus clearly, SPX500 : sell ripps and rallies to put on some hedgies, NQ does well on lower rates, but funding will become more expansive and this many will chose equity issuance going forward, be careful out there IMHO : I could foresee a Fed cutting 150bps one day on financial stability risk, thus forgetting about inflation for a bit (GOLD would fly, and so would JPY..), or continue to stay stubborn on inflation and hope banking issues ease off after quarter-end, anything goes. The unbearable tightness of bank funding | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) well worth a listen! and few charts to back it all up PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) What went right this week: how the world got kinder, and more good news - Positive News Janet Yellen on Wednesday : Not considering any new insurance to back up bank deposits beyond the current $250k limit Janet Yellen yesterday : The strong actions we have taken ensure that Americans’ deposits are safe >>>> no wonder investors/markets are confused and thus more volatile..! and if you were to guaranty all deposits, you socialise the entire system, and then politicians will be in charge ! be careful what you wish for . The MOST obvious and would be MOST popular is for banks to pay decent deposit rates!! that way investors will be more stable, but then banks will be less profitable.. (many US banks, almost all, including JP etc paying near enough to nothing on short-term deposit, when UST 2y is 4% , was 5% not long ago The Fed Has Outsourced Monetary Policy and Lost Control of the Economy (businessinsider.com) The Fed's balance sheet increasing $392 billion over the last 2 weeks, the largest 2-week spike higher since April 2020. Thus over 60% of the Quantitative Tightening since last April has been undone ... in just two weeks. Banks Sound Off on AT1 Outlook (finews.asia) Finma Defends Credit Suisse CoCo Bond Wipeout (finews.asia) Financial turmoil complicates central banks’ focus on inflation | Financial Times (ft.com) “This is not the ECB in 2008,” says AdamPosen, referring to the now-infamous ECB decision to raise interest rates ahead of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Both the Fed & BoE should raise rates or risk entrenching “the inflationary dynamics." Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "WTF? Costs of insuring against Deutsche Bank default (CDS prices) jump in violent move while share price plunge as stress in banking system keeps rising following Fed rate hike. https://t.co/yt56WL1df9" / Twitter Deffner & Zschäpitz: Wirtschaftspodcast von WELT: Wer hat Schuld am Bankenbeben? auf Apple Podcasts ‘Democracy at stake’: French protesters vent fury at Macron over pension push (france24.com) Macron doing what he said he was going to do, reform France...now French people unhappy - good grief, what a nightmare, across France! Top regulator eyes tighter rules for global financial system | Financial Times (ft.com) Biden’s Approval Rating Falls Again Amid Concerns About Economy, Poll Finds (forbes.com) TikTok ban would be 'a slap in the face' to young Democratic voters, activists warn (nbcnews.com) Hindenburg accuses Block, Jack Dorsey's tech company, of fraud (qz.com) DUP has not come to terms with Brexit deal support, says Heaton-Harris - BBC News Dan Snow on Twitter: "My eagle eyed wife compiled a short highlights sizzle. https://t.co/xkdqgTegu5" / Twitter this is brilliant :-) UK and EU to seal Northern Ireland Windsor Framework deal - BBC News Crypto founder Do Kwon indicted in US following Montenegro arrest | Reuters Tim Martin's JD Wetherspoon blames 'ferocious' inflation for profits plummeting 91 per cent JD Wetherspoon: 'Ferocious' inflation sends profits down 90.9 per cent (cityam.com) Sure is tough out there ! good grief TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew's Congress showdown: Five takeaways - BBC News Estonia says China's plan to end Ukraine's war 'extremely unfair' (cnbc.com) USDCHF - clearly not a good price action lately - must hold this .9100/50 area for the bulls, EURCHF struggling to clear par - GBPCHF need a BIG 1.15+ to change the negative trend of last many years..

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is not considering any plans to guarantee all bank deposits without congressional approval following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, she told senators >> this is what did the damage into the close yesterday..not Powell FOMC +25bps, as expected, stuck between a rock and a hard place >> inflation still too high clearly, but financial conditions matter. SNB hiked 50bps this morning (they only meet quarterly), BoE should do 25bps minimum and Norway add 25bps too Powell : small difference there, slowly peaking maybe, "ongoing increases" to "some additional policy firming may be appropriate", though the dots Switzerland’s central bank raised its key interest rate by a half-percentage point and said the country’s bank crisis had ended CITI: “This was the first week of [Citi credit card] data following the disruption within the financial sector, and we were curious if it might have had an impact on the consumer. It sure did. .. biggest decline in total retail spending .. since the pandemic began (April 2020).” PacWest Bank seems to be the next one in the news - 20% of deposits withdrawn since January Rishi Sunak hails Windsor Framework vote as 'a good deal for Northern Ireland' WSJ: "Credit Suisse customers kept pulling deposits Thursday. Authorities moved to make more than $150 billion in additional liquidity available to the bank, Ms. Keller-Sutter, the finance minister, said" - that's not a small sum ! BlackRock took $5B out of its ESG etf, another bubbly thematic investment idea not working ECB's job not yet done, bank must be bold and decisive. Inflation projections contain upside risks, wages may rise more strongly than assumed "'A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends." - Warren Buffett Nestlé says less than half of its mainstream food and drinks are considered ‘healthy’, good grief the negative swiss news keep on coming The SEC issued crypto exchange Coinbase a Wells notice, warning the exchange that it identified potential violations of U.S. securities law Markets : CHF . there is a definite risk we will look back in 12-18months and this was the top of CHF strength - happy to have chat about it - let me know USD softened again with lower UST yields, GOLD testing 2K again (more capital flows our of regional banks will strengthen #JPY and #XAU...) Headwinds in the U.S economy on teh back of 'financial stress' will be deflationary over time! All bout credit and U.S regional banks, #IAT etf is one you can follow, sentiment shifting slowly to 'sell the rallies', as/if/when regionals weaken Credit Suisse fallout threatens to halt issuance of risky bank debt (msn.com) Swiss Central Bank Lifts Key Rate, Declares End to Bank Crisis - WSJ 'Blanket insurance' of bank deposits is not being discussed, Yellen tells senators (msn.com) Nestlé says less than half of its mainstream food and drinks are considered ‘healthy’ | Financial Times (ft.com) Hedge Fund Manager Odey Bets on UBS Following Credit Suisse Deal - Bloomberg He's not alone! as discussed sunday night ! The ECB's Nagel delivers some bold words | Forexlive Coinbase warned by SEC of potential securities charges (cnbc.com) Art Basel Launches in Hong Kong This Week (finews.asia) If boring Switzerland can’t save its banks, who can? – POLITICO OK for the record Switzerland is not boring ! Patek Watch Fetches Record Price at Online Auction (finews.asia) Rishi Sunak hails Windsor Framework vote as 'a good deal for Northern Ireland' (msn.com) Boris Johnson claimed No 10 party was for official who didn’t leave until month later | The Independent Tories fear if Johnson is suspended over Partygate then Uxbridge could be lost in byelection – UK politics live (theguardian.com) There will be a lot of deals similar to these Rival brokers FinnCap and Cenkos Securities merge to make City's largest mid-tier investment bank (cityam.com) Bill Gates says AI will give everyone a personal assistant | Fortune usually these things get overhyped initially...got to agree with Bill there ! U.S regional banks ETF - there are many others - but clearly key for credit, gold, jpy and general risk at the moment