It's worth remembering that in March 2020, investors trying to quickly pull their money out of money market funds nearly wrecked the financial system and forced the Fed to step in. Now there's a record amount of money in MMFs/Thread >> March Madness over, a reminder for markets/investors/funds to do their due-diligence (don't rely on others..), better risk management (there is always some risk..) and less leverage going forward, these markets always prone to 'unlock' at any time and create opportunities!
Prices paid component with Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index continued to fall in March, emphasizing that maximum inflation-/supply-chain pressures are in past / Thread, JPM now sees Headline CPI YoY falling under 4% by the July print
France bought 65,000 tons of LNG using the Chinese yuan, the liquified natural gas was bought from the UAE
Former Credit Suisse chairman Urs Rohner says he will not be returning any of the CHF52 million he earned while working at the failed bank
Citi US economic surprises index has basically been printing new recent highs on a daily basis since mid January. You don't trade SPX on the back of the CSI, but that gap still looks very wide..
Significance of Jack Ma’s Reappearance Should Not be Underestimated
Turkish parliament ratifies Finland's NATO accession as Sweden kept waiting
BOJ's Ueda could shake Global Financial markets by changing Kuroda policy >> Q2?, mixed data, but Tokyo core CPI beat expectations 3.4% vs 3.2%
Kashkari Says unclear if SVB collapse will cause Credit Crunch >>> no, it doesn't have to, but what is clear stress will lead to credit contraction, more expensive financing for 'weak balance-sheets', if it gets big then it will become deflationary over time..
A grand jury in New York has indicted former President Donald Trump in relation to a "hush money" payment to Stormy Daniels
Disney cuts metaverse division under Iger's restructuring
Markets :
U.S 1year CDS much talked about - all time highs >>> clearly some 'hedging' going on related to long-end and debt ceiling risk towards end of Q2
#XAGUSD needs to clear $24-25+ and it could be super interesting for the bulls (chart below)
USDollar mixed but broadly speaking softer into month-end, with CROSSJPY's higher (higher yields, riskon and BoJ policy which remains far from clear cut..)
SPX500 is higher than it was a month ago, after this banking crisis.. (only few badly managed names went down..no depositors lost money..), and is up about 5-6% YTD >> and a whole lot more going underneath with mega caps, NQ, financials, energy, rotations galore!
Crude has stabilized, off 'capitulation' lows from 2weeks ago
If market is right on Fed, the economy has to nosedive, and fast. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) 15mins as usual well worth listening - charts in there too
Chart >>> all about debt ceiling, and perhaps you add all the talks about 'long usd decline' etc etc which has been talked about for the last 20y, in fact for ever really... maybe it''ll be different this time, stay tuned! #XAU etc...
This is what Yellen is worried about Yellen says US bank rules may be too loose, need to be re-examined | Reuters
Can't believe they even thought about doing it !!!
Still remains a risk for Q2 - best guess something happens over next few months, no better time to abandon YCC now that 10y JGB yields are 32bps... (don't do when its 50 and on ceiling..)
Opinion: Significance of Jack Ma’s Reappearance Should Not be Underestimated - Caixin Global / slightly slower data overnight - Manufacturing PMI 51.9 in March vs 52.6 in Feb
The overall market has priced in the 'higher for longer' risk in rates, from here #XAUUSD mostly has tailwinds coming its way, might have to be patient, as usual etc...
Revolut’s board frustrated by fintech company’s response to audit warning | Financial Times (ft.com)
XAGUSD long-term - this is where we need to trade for bulls to get exited ! 25+?..
