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Markets all about small vs megabanks, small cap (RTY underperformance) vs FAANGS, megacaps >>> The market cap of the largest 10 stocks relative to S&P 500 is at a 96%ile (!) relative to history. Last quarter’s performance was led by the narrowest leadership ever in an up market The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale. This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next few weeks/ING recap below and MS is more about peaking, not cutting The rescue of Credit Suisse was not the second time a major bank was saved – nor was that of UBS the first. Back in the Great Depression, the Swiss government was compelled to save Schweizerische Volksbank (SVB...) from collapse – and that time, it had the backing of a parliamentary resolution A troubling economic trend as the shipments of boxes plunge downward -- to below 2009 lows/Thread Singapore announces new property cooling measures, additional buyer's stamp duty doubled to 60% for foreigners The House of Representatives has narrowly approved a Republican plan to raise the debt ceiling in a legislative victory for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy that will do little to break the stalemate with the White House US bank regulators are weighing the prospect of downgrading their private assessments of First Republic Bank — a move that may curb access to Fed's lending facilities Antitrust regulators in the UK blocked Microsoft's takeover of Activision. Microsoft plans to appeal the decision and remains "fully committed" to acquiring the popular video game company The ECB balance sheet is shrinking again. Total assets dropped €16.7bn in the past week on ECB QT. ECB balance sheet now at €7,714.2bn, equal to 58% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 33%, SNB's 113%, BoJ's 131%/Holger Microsoft mentioned AI **50 times** on its earnings call --JPM Markets : Many have asked.. to be clear, we are not in the camp of a U.S default (CDS markets exploding higher etc), it surely can't happen! but a technical default (politics, delay) is not impossible, and clearly if we go to the wire (most likely scenario), the markets will continue to worry (USD, Gold etc) SPX500 put a top in around 4150, steady though, NQ holding as big mega caps report a beat, but HUGE divergences, it's ALL ABOUT small and big banks, RTY (underperformance) and megacaps etcetc USD stays defensive, slightly oversold short-term, nothing dramatic though Crude lower again, Gold/crude spread Higher Rates: Is the Peak Behind Us? | Morgan Stanley Central banks: Our latest calls ahead of a dramatic month | Article | ING Think April 2023 Newsletter: Navigating the Debt Ceiling Impasse - Lyn Alden well worth a read - good in depth research Why de-dollarization is inevitable - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn Steve Cortes on Twitter: "A troubling economic trend as the shipments of boxes plunge downward -- to below 2009 lows. Chart from Freight Waves I referenced on War Room this morning. https://t.co/2mYo4ePA6m" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany where econ optimism keeps rising. The govt has raised its GDP forecast for this year to 0.4% from a previously predicted 0.2%, above BBG consensus. #Inflation forecast was adjusted down, w/rate for 2023 now seen 0.1ppt lower at 5.9%, below consensus. https://t.co/bFsqmfny48" / Twitter The Swiss state as ‘an unwilling banker’ - SWI swissinfo.ch How Switzerland is Putting Its Success Model at Risk (finews.asia) UK regulators blocked Microsoft's takeover of Activision (qz.com) US House Republicans pass debt ceiling bill in victory for Speaker Kevin McCarthy | Financial Times (ft.com) unlikely to ever become law though.. First Republic Bank turmoil pushes stock to plunge 95% this year as the lender seeks another lifeline from big US banks (yahoo.com) Exclusive: The Man Who Could Beat Erdoğan | Time Singapore announces new property cooling measures, additional buyer's stamp duty doubled to 60% for foreigners - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) 'Spectacular' Roman military camps almost 2,000 years old discovered | World News | Sky News Elizabeth Holmes Isn't Going to Prison Thursday After All (businessinsider.com) Defense of Ukraine on Twitter: "Bakhmut today. This city was peaceful and vibrant until recently. The “russian world” is equivalent to death. The “russian world” turns everything into a wasteland. 🎥 @Liberov https://t.co/zclYl1J5z8" / Twitter

Druckenmiller takes aim at dollar in sole conviction trade. Billionaire investor says last year’s dollar rally was the ‘biggest miss’ of his career Putin signs decree taking over Russian assets of two foreign firms A Republican bill authorizing a $1.5 trillion increase to the U.S. debt ceiling, coupled with deep spending cuts over a decade, hit a snag late on Tuesday, as a key committee delayed advancing the legislation to the full House of Representatives for debate and passage. Lower tax receipts prompt debt ceiling fears First Republic Bank shares fall 50% after reporting dramatic slump in deposits >>> can expect eventual govt receivership for the ailing bank after it exhausts private sector solutions such as asset sales and finding a buyer, both of which appear difficult Latest economic figures show Australia’s inflation easing ahead of RBA interest rate decision The consumer price index for the first three months of 2023 has come in at an annual rate of 7%, down from the 32-year high of 7.8% Britons ‘need to accept’ they’re poorer, says Bank of England economist - thank you so much Germany : consumer confidence keeps rising for a 7th consecutive month as income expectations brightened on easing energy bills. GfK German Consumer Index climbs to -25.7, highest in over a year, but remains well below prepandemic levels U.S : M2 money supply contracted by -1.2% m/m in March, worst on record / Thread Elon Musk’s latest round of price cuts has dropped his 2 best-selling vehicles to uncharted territory. At $46,990, base Model Y now costs $759 less than avg car in US. Differential between these figures has changed by >$20k since the middle of last year Commercial real estate loans in core Europe face $55 bln funding gap, report says Markets : SPX500 - 4150 tops confirmed (technically in short-term, weekly close will be key etc ), risk now markets turn into sell rallies mood, need confirmation over next few days, price action key, but remember (BEWARE too quiet markets - few days ago..) USD stays under pressure on debt ceiling fears, USDJPY at risk with BoJ Friday, Druckenmiller (long-term plays) all the kind of stuff and techs weighing on the buck still Gold should continue to grind higher (or better have a decent rally on serious debt ceiling issues) Low volumes and low Eq vols recently not particularly bullish IMHO, must keep an eye underneath (large caps ok, but 80% of stocks are not..)..but jury is still out, commods lower pointing towards slowdown (sticky inflation and already 150bps of Fed cuts priced in..) Druckenmiller takes aim at dollar in sole conviction trade | Financial Times (ft.com) Daily Technical Update - 24.04.23 - YouTube 5mins - quick walk through - top Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "M2 money supply contracted by -1.2% m/m in March, worst on record https://t.co/YHnNCl7noi" / Twitter Latest economic figures show Australia’s inflation easing ahead of RBA interest rate decision | Australian economy | The Guardian De-Dollarization: Central Banks Lead Revolt Against USD and Shift to Gold (businessinsider.com) First Republic Bank shares fall 50% after reporting dramatic slump in deposits | Banking | The Guardian Putin signs decree taking over Russian assets of two foreign firms | Cyprus Mail (cyprus-mail.com) Britons ‘need to accept’ they’re poorer, says Bank of England economist | Bank of England | The Guardian >>> Dear Central Bankers, many thanks for printing money when rates were sub zero, negative yields, great job...you told the world it was fine, it clearly never was !!! Now folks suffer, across the world pretty much (not just UK btw, but more acute in UK clearly, small matter of a weak GBP due to Brexit and much more) The Bank of England needs trade unionists and social scientists to stop groupthink (cityam.com) indeed Get ready for China’s invasion of Taiwan – and the end of Macron’s delusions (telegraph.co.uk) Elon Musk is ‘distracted,’ major shareholder group says | Fortune He is going for growth now (even though he previously said he never would..), thus earnings will suffer, as he has to compete against the rest of the car manufacturing world, including China. His balance-sheet will weaken, share price will struggle, though ok Cathie Woods reckons its going to USD 2K... Lower tax receipts prompt debt ceiling fears | The Hill Commercial real estate loans in core Europe face $55 bln funding gap, report says | Reuters UK venture capital investment tumbles to pre-pandemic levels as market jitters linger (cityam.com) Venture capital is in for a 'world of hurt' | Fortune ....the consequences of ---higher for longer--- will or could very well be felt for years to come Google parent Alphabet announces stock buyback after modest beat on ad sales (cityam.com)

The deficit reduction plan put forward by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy would notably slow economic growth and increase unemployment next year, an analysis by Moody’s shows When UBS took over Credit Suisse, it was primarily eyeing its wealth management business. But that unit of prime tenderloin now looks considerably less appetizing, UBS: Significant inflows in wake of Credit Suisse buyout – but profit halved First Republic's deposits plummeted $72 billion in the first quarter, even after Wall Street's largest lenders parked $30 billion with the regional bank to shore up its finances after the collapse of SVB and others London Q1 finance job vacancies plummet 31% year-on-year 'as firms struggle with economic and geopolitical headwinds, says Morgan McKinley' ECB's Schnabel spoke on Monday, 50 basis points are not off the table U.K. Retail Sales Look Set to Recover Only Gradually Over the Course of this Year/Thread A selloff in Chinese equities is deepening as traders weigh a barrage of economic and geopolitical risks, with global funds accelerating their exodus The EU and Japan opposed the US proposal to the G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia, writes the Financial Times Markets : VIX on 17months lows >>> BEWARE of vol reawakening for whatever reasons, many shorts and many asleep at the wheel, that's when one should worry and get that hedge on board Commodities ETF (OUT)..flows - see Saxo, Iron Ore lower, Copper too 1y US CDS risk hitting new highs (debt ceiling risk etc), as VIX vols hit new lows - something's not quite right SOFR spreads currently pricing 150bps of cuts to mid 2024 >> point is it's priced in already, hence it helped Equity markets to hold higher ground, but BEWARE if mood changes and we head back to higher for longer on sticky inflation data USDCHF breaking down again it seems, pressure is on, as long as we remain sub .89-.9000 area on weekly basis, through .8800 area and downside may accelerate (tech picture really not great!), U.S debt ceiling issues not helping (clearly) SPX500 4150-4200 top still, low vols, low volumes not necessarily positive for markets PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) charts If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) podcast Allies resist US plan to ban all G7 exports to Russia | Financial Times (ft.com) BOJ Ueda vows to keep rates low for now, signals chance of future hike (cnbc.com) Weston Nakamura on Twitter: "🇯🇵BOJ WEEK: Day 1 of 5 How WOULD Bank of Japan Destroy Markets & Roil CB Policies? •🇯🇵 sell 🌎 assets & repatriate→💴 •YCC change→ rate vol mayhem (March yield collapse but in reverse) + •PRESS TEST: Sankei News •Ueda in Parliament Watch👇 https://t.co/AUYlMkmQ2j on…" / Twitter ECB Half-Point Hike Next Week Is on the Table, Schnabel Says (yahoo.com) Euro to the fore as hawkish hike looms (cnbc.com) First Republic Bank saw deposits fall by over $100bn as it scrambles to stabilize | US news | The Guardian Republican Debt Ceiling Plan Would Boost Joblessness, Analysis Shows (yahoo.com) Credit Suisse Presents UBS With a Burnt Tenderloin (finews.asia) UBS: Significant inflows in wake of Credit Suisse buyout - but profit halved (cityam.com) The Swiss state as ‘an unwilling banker’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Politics latest news: Rishi Sunak ‘wants EU travel deal after post-Brexit chaos’ (telegraph.co.uk) Pantheon Macro on Twitter: ""U.K. Retail Sales Look Set to Recover Only Gradually Over the Course of this Year" @G_Dickens11 https://t.co/gCp8PfDCiF #PantheonMacro https://t.co/vQ1LK4m4dq" / Twitter 'Crypto is dead in America,' says tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya (cnbc.com) One of the main 'pump and dump' dude from back then, SPAC's and al... Crypto prices tumble as SEC crackdown continues, while EU parliament approves MiCA regulation (cityam.com) The Long, Slow Death of Global Development - American Affairs Journal Sudan: UK government begins large-scale evacuation of British people - BBC News what a mess this all is there - hard to realize the night mare for so many people, lucky those who can escape, but as usual, many innocent will suffer China’s Deepening Selloff Shows Investors Are Losing Confidence - Bloomberg No drama, still way higher then Q3 last year, but...short-term price action weak / Copper

Crude back to lower levels, other commodities softer, slower demand, while inflation remains pretty sticky on higher ground, calls of slowdown, recession on the increase BoJ : big week, as a brand new and untested Ueda holds his 1st policy meeting after a decade of Kurodanomics Stern warning from Citi, as markets buckle up for $600-800B CB liquidity drain in coming weeks “With peak liquidity past, we would not be at all surprised if markets were now to experience a sudden pressure loss. Keep watching the liquidity data — and buckle up.” Chile is nationalizing new lithium production, vowing "no more mining for the few" Credit Suisse clients pulled out CHF61.2 billion ($68.5 billion) of their assets in the first three months of the year as they rushed to leave the collapsing bank ECB's Wunsch says wouldn't be surprised if rates hit 4% at some point Silver Demand set records in every category in 2022 Bank run in slow motion continues. Deposits at US banks fell by $76.2bn last week even before tax payments, indicating the financial system remains fragile after a string of bank failures. The drop was mostly at large and foreign institutions, but they also fell at small banks Germany is now a NET importer of electricity in Europe Markets : XPT would appear to breaking up (chart) Crude breaking down back to where/when OPEC+ cut output, Iron Ore, steel and few others softer too, Gold struggling too above $2k, slower demand/risk recession etc USDollar pretty rangy, same as SPX500, consolidation lately, watch out for short-term levels / change of momentum. Big 10-20 stocks weighting holding up indexes, picture really not that pretty underneath China’s economy rebounds more than expected - Economist Intelligence Unit (eiu.com) Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter: "Stern warning from @Citi as markets buckle up for $600-800B CB liquidity drain in coming weeks “With peak liquidity past, we would not be at all surprised if markets were now to experience a sudden pressure loss. Keep watching the liquidity data — and buckle up.” @business https://t.co/VcdLAVZA2t" / Twitter Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Central bank gold purchases hit the highest since 1967. https://t.co/TVydWk9wHE https://t.co/QdIRCh8wh2" / Twitter Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "While the unemployment rate remains sub 4%, the number of permanent job losses has begun to rise significantly. The latest 2-month increase was as steep as in every recession that has transpired over the last 30 years. The prevalence of layoffs in higher-paying jobs has been… https://t.co/HsxxTCFL7s" / Twitter ''looking under the hood'.. Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany, which will go from being a net exporter of electricity to a net importer of electricity in Europe after the nuclear power plants are shut down. Last week, electricity imports reached their highest level in one day since 2021. https://t.co/XkuzgJ6WUY" / Twitter crazy stuff when you think about it.. !! Credit Suisse reports CHF60bn of client withdrawals - SWI swissinfo.ch SME loans fall by £14bn in last year with more pain on the way (cityam.com) 'Abandoned': UK citizens trapped in Sudan concerned as Government has 'severely limited' ability to help (cityam.com) >>> nightmare - not just for UK citizens Switzerland evacuates Sudan embassy - SWI swissinfo.ch Morgan Stanley's PB Strategic Content team underscores a continuation of past weeks’ trends – relatively muted flows, a slight tilt towards selling Global Equities, gross leverage that stayed constant at 185%, and net leverage that ticked 2% lower WoW to 45% for US Equity L/S funds. Furthermore, crowded longs and shorts performed in-line with one another, resulting in flat L/S alpha. (MS) (3) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Bank run in slow motion continues. Deposits at US banks fell by $76.2bn last week even before tax payments, indicating the financial system remains fragile after a string of bank failures. The drop was mostly at large and foreign institutions, but they also fell at small banks. https://t.co/wrKTw2CjJ1" / Twitter and US Bank Deposits Resume Outflows, Led By Large Institutions; Small Bank Loan Growth Slumped | ZeroHedge Chile is nationalizing all new lithium production (qz.com) What happened to Beyond Meat? - The Hustle Just another silly idea that sounded great and isn't for many diff reasons Silver Demand Set Records in Every Category in 2022 | SchiffGold EU parliament gives blessing to landmark crypto assets regulation (thearmchairtrader.com) More than $15 million in gold and other valuables was stolen from a Toronto airport | WFSU News Civil service could see ‘politicisation’ in wake of Raab row (cityam.com) Platinum prices - maybe false break up since all other commods softer

20th April 2020... when Crude traded at -40$ Saxo podcast below : Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications US April Philly Fed -31.3 vs -19.2 expected, Jobless claims climb to 245,000 and signal rising layoffs >>> a few weeks near or above 250K will be a concern Japan core consumer inflation hits 41-year high of 3% in FY 2022 >>> makes the BoJ decision next week a little trickier (March core CPI 3.1% YoY) Michael Schumacher: 7x F1 champion's family plan legal action after AI-generated 'interview' - already going too far... Tesla has gone from assuring investors it wouldn’t need to choose between growth and profitability, to acknowledging the need to sacrifice one for the other : growth over margin JPMorgan expects U.S. debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May, sees a "non-trivial risk" of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries Tesla and Twitter chief executive Elon Musk, who has been calling for US government spending reductions, said on Wednesday that a debt default was just a question of time Stoltenberg says all NATO countries think Ukraine will be come a NATO country G7 nations considering near-total ban on exports to Russia -Kyodo ''If you believe that we should cut emissions further and faster, you have to honest with people, and tell them about that cost. You cannot pretend that we live in a world without trade-offs, where you can slash carbon emissions without anyone noticing.'' French poll finds far-right Le Pen more popular than Macron Branson's Virgin Orbit files Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan Meanwhile, Argentina’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 81%, a person familiar with the decision said, after annual inflation reached in March a faster-than-expected 104% Chile plans to nationalize its vast lithium industry Top EU diplomats head to the English seaside for secret Brexit away day, sounds exiting! Markets : Iron Ore Dec lows - see below, Crude given up all the OPEC+ output cut 'short-covering rally', might help keep inflation under control, though lower prices on 'lower demand' The spread between 3-month (5.12%) and 1-month (3.40%) Treasury yields has never been higher: 1.72% >> this will make heads turn for a few weeks, it can't happen really, but a 'technical default' could, it's in the hand of politicians after all SPX500, same picture, 4150-4200 toppish - all very steady, perhaps too steady! NQ, light underperformance and weak ARKK style stocks under pressure (weak balance-sheets, no real earnings etc) USDollar : light profit taking on USD shorts established last few weeks, BoJ next week focus MACRO : to the recession (soft, hard, etc) and inflation debate, you can add ''risk'' of some sort U.S govt shutdown and the G7 coming up on 19.20th Mai (china rethorics etc) Debt ceiling crunch time. Geopolitical tectonics rumbling in the background. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) cup of tea, sit back and listen, about Lagarde speech too - must also focus (Russia, China etc new geopolitical reality etc) Fed's Mester sees policy rate over 5% and 'soft landing' on horizon (msn.com) Perhaps a little less hawkish than many could have expected The giant black cloud hanging over Europe’s economic recovery (msn.com) All seems well at the moment, many arguing this eventual slowdown: The giant spoiler is that the eurozone money supply is in free-fall. The process has been going on long enough to raise the risk of an economic sudden-stop over coming months. European Central Bank data shows that 'narrow' M1 money has been contracting since last September in absolute terms >>> The EZ PMIs this morning clearly suggesting that the domestic economy appears to be completely unfazed by slowing money supply growth, tightening credit standards and so on.. If this stays so, mr market is going to talk 4% from ECB very soon again Oil prices extend losses on fears of recession and slower oil demand (cnbc.com) Japan core consumer inflation hits 41-year high of 3% in FY 2022 (kyodonews.net) Elon Musk says US default is a matter of time (azernews.az) Why Is Bitcoin Down Today? Binance Whale Games And More (newsbtc.com) G7 nations considering near-total ban on exports to Russia -Kyodo - SWI swissinfo.ch Chile's Boric announces plan to nationalize lithium industry (yahoo.com) Top EU diplomats head to the English seaside for secret Brexit away day – POLITICO At least they are talking ! Branson's Virgin Orbit files Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan (yahoo.com) Sorry, but this is another great example of ridiculous mis-allocation of capital (or worse), it was fun while QE machines were working and rates were zero Uncrewed SpaceX rocket explodes after takeoff – DW – 04/21/2023 amazing pics though it has to be said Never mind "climate change deniers" - it's trade-off deniers we should worry about — Institute of Economic Affairs (iea.org.uk) - well worth a read The reason why Switzerland’s economic clout is easily underestimated is that they sell a lot of things that, as end-consumers, we do not directly see, such as high-end capital goods, industrial chemicals, and high-end services that happen behind the scenes. If the world economy were a concert, Switzerland would be supplying the sound system, and organise the logistics around it, but they would not be on the stage singing. Most people may not be able to name a lot of Swiss brands off the top of their heads. But if the Swiss economy shut down tomorrow – we would notice it. BBC Question Time on Twitter: "“A junior doctor now has very significantly less disposable income, in real terms, than they might have had 10 or 15 years ago” Finance journalist Merryn Somerset Webb analyses the economic landscape and possible solutions to the pay dispute #bbcqt https://t.co/Pt7dAKQBFt https://t.co/mnMpuTjeNl" / Twitter Watch European Miners as Iron Ore Price Slips to December Low By Julien Ponthus (Bloomberg) -- European mining stocks may be in focus on Friday with iron ore trading at its lowest since December, as lukewarm demand in top consumer China and ample supplies continued to cap market sentiment. Futures in Singapore plunged as much as 5.5%, its steepest intraday decline in six months, reflecting slow consumption of the key steelmaking material despite China’s usual peak building season being well underway Tesla Chooses Growth Over Margin a Quarter After Promising Both - Bloomberg “Pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here, versus a lower volume and higher margin” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings call late Wednesday. Michael Schumacher: Seven-time F1 champion's family plan legal action after AI-generated 'interview' - BBC Sport How the billionaire space race could be one giant leap for pollution | Space | The Guardian WATCH: SpaceX’s Starship explodes after failing to reach orbit (nbcnews.com) Young people are too scared to have kids – and climate change hysteria is to blame (msn.com) Russia Bombs Its Own City by Mistake (newsweek.com) Credit Suisse bondholders sue Swiss regulator over bond wipe-out - SWI swissinfo.ch French poll finds far-right Le Pen more popular than Macron | The Edge Markets Cocaine-smuggling submarine reveals Europe's drug crisis - BBC News have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

Google reveals its AI taught itself a skill that it wasn't supposed to have...are humans too late to regulate AI ?...loosing control of AI already ? Fed's Goolsbee says he is watching for other 'credit shoes' to drop and ..Fed's Williams: Inflation still 'too high,' Fed will act to lower it BOJ officials are wary of tweaking or scrapping yield control stimulus at next week's policy meeting so soon after the banking crisis clouded the outlook, people familiar said. Accessing credit has become harder, Fed’s Beige Book shows. "Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing" Cost of oil, sugar, butter up nearly 20% in Switzerland, sounds familiar? After Morgan Stanley, that's now four quarters in a row of essentially flat investment banking fees for the big five US banks - and at the lowest level since Q1 2019 (incl. BofA, Citi, GS, JPM, MS The era of easy deposits is over for main street banks. Lenders like Citizens Financial and Hancock Whitney are paying more to keep depositors around (U.S centric but applies to parts of EU too..) U.S car repo demand : 'In March, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills was 5.3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in May 2021 and higher than in 2009, the peak of the financial crisis.' New Zealand CPI adds to evidence of peak inflation, aggressive tightening from RBNZ beginning to impact TSLA : Musk says Tesla will put sales growth ahead of profit (cutting prices) - . Tesla posted gross margins of 19.3%, well below the 22.4% forecast, the lowest level since Q4 2020 >>> Where are the automotive gross margins? Free cash flow -87% miss from consensus estimates? India is now officially the world's most populous nation. The south Asian nation has overtaken China, the UN says. The US is in a distant third spot Russian ships accused of plotting North Sea sabotage with ghost ships Global chart: why financial contagion is unlikely/Economist Intelligence Switzerland’s Federal Council this week said it “acknowledges” Parliament’s vote to reject the CHF109 billion guarantee on the shotgun merger of UBS and Credit Suisse, but it won’t have any effect on the merger Markets: #MOVE index (bond vol) is one thing, #STIRT moving much faster lately, #VIX index is one thing, #0DTE stuff taking over lately >>> markets can and will move faster, particularly with the debt ceiling stuff too in Q2 (irrelevant of what anyone thinks, we've seen in March what can very swiftly happen to 10's of billion of deposit in some banks..), 3 and 4months Tbills - see below, you can add the 1y US CDS into the mix (debt ceiling risk-hedging etc) Rates market has truly been wild, the huge discrepancy is what happens after 1 or 2more Fed hikes, the market is pricing in huge amount of cuts for next 2years USDollar mixed, tried a little higher yesterday, short covering, #XAUUSD tested $1970 and rebounded to 2K again, huge expiries noted for next week in XAUUSD, strikes 2'050 SPX is trapped between the big 4200 resistance and the lower part of the trend channel. Time to move away from this trapped range sooner rather than later Time to buy some downside insurance? Big weather shift coming... | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and charts PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Accessing credit has become harder, Fed's Beige Book shows | CNN Business Global chart: why financial contagion is unlikely - Economist Intelligence Unit (eiu.com) The Era of Easy Deposits Is Over for Main Street Banks - WSJ BTCUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "US govt sold 4mth Treasury bills at highest yield since issue became a benchmark in Oct2022 as some investors avoiding buying securities that are more at risk from a potential technical default. Treasury sold $36bn of 4mth bill at 5.06%, up from 4.98% at prior sale on April 12. https://t.co/wvhunZanju" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Cost of insuring against #USdefault (CDS price) jumps to highest since 2012 as US debt-ceiling deadline may be nearing faster than expected. Weak tax collections so far in Apr suggest increased probability that debt limit deadline will be reached in first half of Jun, GS says. https://t.co/I6tIdhx7KI" / Twitter Grim forecast for public pension funds in California and elsewhere | EdSource this is huge if/when it goes forward, also when you consider the Allianz/N26 news yesterday.. Google reveals its AI taught itself a skill that it wasn't supposed to have (tweaktown.com) Cost of oil, sugar, butter up nearly 20% in Switzerland (theswisstimes.ch) Offshore cash and huge loans: leak reveals how Roman Abramovich funded Chelsea’s success | Roman Abramovich | The Guardian Credit Suisse accused of limiting scope of probe into Nazi-linked accounts (cityam.com) Never ending stream of bad news Insider-Gerüchte bei Swiss Re rund um Ermotti-Comeback - Inside Paradeplatz allegedly, Ermotti knew about comeback as as early as Jan 2023... conspiracy theories flying around Singapore bondholders prepare to sue Switzerland over Credit Suisse Swiss government rejects Parliament vote on UBS-CS merger (theswisstimes.ch) >>> many will argue this is no true democracy..... Fox News Settles Defamation Suit for $787.5 Million, Dominion Says - The New York Times (nytimes.com) >>>So Murdoch blinked...and bought silence for a cool $787mio How Fox and Murdoch are destroying US democracy (prospectmagazine.co.uk) Macron tries to escape French pension row with street song - BBC News Inflation, High Car Prices Hurt US Consumers and Boost Repo Demand - Bloomberg Interest rates: New Zealand CPI adds to evidence of peak inflation (afr.com) Tesla accounts reveal tough start to the year as boss Elon Musk announces more US price cuts – Car Dealer Magazine Russian ships accused of plotting North Sea sabotage with ghost ships (cityam.com) have a great day Team PVM

UK inflation 10.1% >> still more than sticky!, even though BoE and UK government been promising inflation will head lower...This is from the UK Office of Statistics: "The largest contributor to the rise in food inflation was bread and cereals, for which average prices rose by 19.4% in the year to March 2023 U.S 1m T-bill yields vs 3m T-bill yields have never been this inverted >>> avoid Jun expiries!!..common sense IMHO (risk management..)..>>> concerns about the debt ceiling debacle coming sooner rather than later as well as growing collateral shortages U.S tax collections for the year are running basically on top of the previous year, despite the 7.3% surge in nominal GDP >>> disappointing tax harvest for Treasury thus far (could change)/Thread - GS - A US debt ceiling crisis might be closer than you think. Weak tax receipts means drop-dead date is rapidly approaching Bank collapses in early March prompted traders to go from pricing in fed funds rate of 5.35% to 4.75% for next month’s Fed meeting … since, those estimates have climbed back up to 5.05% Feds Bullard: Sees restrictive policy rate between 5.5% and 5.75 range Lagarde : Europe’s Top Central Banker Paints Bleak Picture of West in Decline (inflationary) India to have 2.9 million more people than China by mid-2023, UN estimate shows ‘Gruyère’ becomes a generic name in United States Allianz puts N26 stake up for sale at $3 bln discounted valuation - FT Markets : The #Moveindex just going to catch down to the VIX (not the other way around, as many were talking about-expecting not long ago..), hence the big short equity vs bonds many seem to be trapped in right now Copper stockpiles hit lowest in 18 years - Thread-chart SPX500 4150-4200 resistance still - saxo charts below and podcast below - Banks have been rapidly tightening credit card standards of late too USDollar strength picking up a little on higher yields, higher rates expectations again, watch out if US>D goes decently bid, NQ should correct lower too. JPY weaker still on higher yields globally GOLD, Silver, giving way, profit taking, on higher yields/inflation expectations It’s been a narrow US equity market rally. Tesla is on tap. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Christine Lagarde Sees the West in Decline Amid Ukraine War (nymag.com) G Stockus on Twitter: "US 3 m bills 5.19% up 9bp US 1m bills 3.77% down 26bp everything ok? https://t.co/wpPirMNleU" / Twitter Craig Shapiro on Twitter: "1m T-bill yields vs 3m T-bill yields have never been this inverted. Clearly there is something going on here with concerns about the debt ceiling debacle coming sooner rather than later as well as growing collateral shortages. Something aint right https://t.co/IY2MPIRW60" / Twitter Stephen Miran on Twitter: "Thanks to @IraFJersey for the chart. Here you can see tax collections for the year are running basically on top of the previous year, despite the 7.3% surge in nominal GDP. This is a disappointing tax harvest for Treasury thus far (could change) https://t.co/EyPKruWe8F" / Twitter Special Edition: Generative AI Part 2 with Emil Sarauw | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) this is a fantastic AI podcast A US debt ceiling crisis might be closer than you think | Financial Times (ft.com) GS - While the data are still very preliminary, weak tax collections so far in April suggest an increased probability that the debt limit deadline will be reached in the first half of June. We have been projecting that Treasury could operate without a debt limit increase until early August Monopolies hire too many pointless managers and kill off productivity growth (cityam.com) Margot Rubin on Twitter: "Copper stockpiles hit lowest in 18 years No wonder the price has held steady amid all the global uncertainty https://t.co/5TFlIFfI7i" / Twitter Allianz puts N26 stake up for sale at $3 bln discounted valuation - FT | Reuters India to have 2.9 million more people than China by mid-2023, UN estimate shows | Reuters The Davis Downside Dossier (yorkshirebylines.co.uk) Shocking Brexit lies - nothing new mind.. Will the Swiss countryside soon be dotted with wind turbines? - SWI swissinfo.ch No no no.. All going downhill !! ‘Gruyère’ becomes a generic name in United States - SWI swissinfo.ch Explainer: Is there an electric car price war? (cityam.com) would be welcome for inflation !

China, solid numbers, after being outpaced by IP during the first two months of 2023 (2.4% versus 3.5%), retail sales in China performed much better in March, rising 10.6% versus a 3.9% rise in industrial production, clearly the expected bounce in China is coming, 4.5% GDP in Q1 is higher than expectations of 4% >>> JPM upgrades 2023 GDP to 6.4% (from 6%) U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy pledged Monday that the narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives will vote to raise the country’s debt ceiling to avert a default on the government’s financial obligations in the coming months, but will also stipulate that future spending increases be capped at 1%. In last few years copper has spent more time above $4 than ever before, not enough investment in new supply facing huge electrification demand More than $440bn has poured into US money market funds since early March, according to data provider EPFR, in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, and as attractive returns drove investors out of ordinary deposit accounts GS-GOLD : Central Bank demand as a % of gold annual supply:2010s: ~10% and 2022-2023: ~30%, goes long way to explain good performance of XAU in the face of higher rates "We view the recent rally as irrational and believe it was mainly driven by systematic inflows and short covering, but these drivers are likely running out of steam" --JPM Crisis in the German housing sector is deepening. The number of building permits for dwellings fell by an astonishing 20.6% in February. This was the 10th consecutive decline due to higher interest rates & construction costs/Thread Christine Lagarde says US-China rift to push inflation higher UBS on Tuesday said it was making changes to its $6 billion share buyback programme following its takeover of Credit Suisse >>> While filed lawsuits by bondholders over Credit Suisse’s emergency takeover are becoming increasingly menacing for Switzerland, the damage to investor confidence could be irreversible and Qatar reportedly trying to sell Swiss hotels after Credit Suisse debacle and to top it off, Swiss food staples up to 20% more expensive from last year Calstrs CIO to FT : "Office real estate is probably down about 20 per cent in value, just based on the rise of interest rates" Bögg : sorry folks looks like it's going to be a very wet summer - bit of an old swiss ritual but here you go ! UK wage growth at5.9% in Feb, higher than expected, but real wage growth was still negative, with inflation still far too high Markets : Copper - higher for longer - long term chart below just for big picture view SPX500 holds in there very well, VOLS/VIX super low, supporting price action short-term, if you are looking for a 3-6months 'edge' - it's cheap ! USDollar not doing too much, but didn't exactly roar higher on higher UST yields last few days, higher yields=higher crossjpy's UST yields picked up quite a bit actually last few days again, 2y UST yields 4.20% again! and 10y 3.60% BofA FundManagerSurvey : Long big tech / short US banks : most crowded trade House Speaker McCarthy: Republicans Will Raise US Debt Ceiling (voanews.com) Special Edition: Generative AI Part 2 with Emil Sarauw | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Money Market Funds Caught Up In US Debt Ceiling Stand-off - WorldNewsEra Christine Lagarde says US-China rift to push inflation higher | Financial Times Baron Investments on Twitter: "#Copper. Tightest Supply in 18 Years. What’s your copper picks? https://t.co/dryHje0YR1" / Twitter Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Investor allocation to equities relative to bonds has dropped to its lowest level since 2009: BofA's global fund manager survey. If “consensus lust for recession” isn’t satisfied in Q2, the “pain trade” would be a rally in bond yields and bank stocks: BofA's Hartnett https://t.co/PKwAZ0sNnd" / Twitter UK workers still being gripped by inflation despite better than forecast pay growth (msn.com) As supermarkets rake in profits, Goldilocks would go hungry on the cost of oats (cityam.com) UK cyber security chief to warn of China’s rise as a technology superpower | Defence policy | The Guardian G Stockus on Twitter: "In last few yrs copper has spent more time above $4 than ever before pretty profitable price Not enough investment in new supply facing huge electrification demand means copper shortages but... recession looms Tough trade to time? Glencore-Teck shows industry isn't waiting https://t.co/QRfBOhTQxe" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany, where the crisis in the German housing sector is deepening. The number of building permits for dwellings fell by an astonishing 20.6% in February. This was the 10th consecutive decline due to higher interest rates & construction costs. https://t.co/FqpsxZPGAS" / Twitter China GDP: economy grew by 4.5 per cent in first quarter amid recovery drive, but obstacles remain | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) China's economy gathers speed, global risks raise challenges to outlook | Reuters UBS makes changes to buyback programme following Credit Suisse takeover (msn.com) AT1 Lawsuits Put Switzerland in Dire Straits (finews.asia) Qatar reportedly trying to sell Swiss hotels after Credit Suisse debacle - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss food staples up to 20% more expensive from last year - SWI swissinfo.ch Apple savings account announced with 4.15% interest (cnbc.com) It's not a bank though (yet anyway..) Pension fund Calstrs braces for writedowns in $50bn property portfolio | Financial Times (ft.com) Warning from $306bn fund is latest sign that higher interest rates have upended US commercial real estate market, market been anticipating this and pricing it - to a large extent already, but pretty nasty situation Sudan: US embassy convoy fired upon amid fighting in African country | World News | Sky News NewInZurich on Twitter: "Check out this video by #alexnikolsky of the burning of the #Böögg in a record breaking (super long) 57 minutes!!! Let’s hope the summer isn’t that bad!! ☔️☔️☔️ Se me here: https://t.co/DYpBOBEFIo #switzerland @1000Switzerland #visitzurich #sechseläuten https://t.co/vFVCERpBzS" / Twitter Copper : a tendency for price to spend time at higher levels - long-term #glencore etc

Saxo Bank has received a BBB rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings, according to the bank’s first-ever rating report FT-We must slow down the race to God-like AI - ''I’ve invested in more than 50 artificial intelligence start-ups. What I’ve seen worries me'' - well worth a read. Criminals will harness ChatGPT to unleash a new wave of online fraud, Britain's biggest listed cybersecurity company has warned Hiking to bring down inflation is not a policy mistake, that's the Fed's mandate. The real mistake was to believe.. that ZIRP, NIRP, QE infinite and buying billions of mortgage bonds in a housing bubble & increasing money supply by some nearly 50% in 2 years, would have no negative consequences eventually U.S inflation on Wed was slightly softer, that's the good news, the not so good news is it's stabilizing on higher ground, yesterday's PPI was down 0.5% in March (falling most since pandemic..) and Jobless claims come in 4,000 higher than expected at 239K vs a forecast of 235K. The prior reading was 228K (a sign of light stress in markets, probably) >>> be careful with averages though, Atlanta's like for like median wage tracker is still pretty high, no pivot in sight unless there is some sort of crash in the economy (rate expectations moved massively last 6 weeks from a small June hike to cuts in Sep, -75bps in cut for 2023 and -150 going forward...this looks a little much? - chart available if you wish) The IMF sees rates back near zero when inflation gets under control. BlackRock’s Larry Fink disagrees, thinks inflation isn’t falling much below 4% anytime soon due to lost productivity. “A big reason productivity has fallen: remote working does not work.” Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance. Leftist president lends his voice to Beijing’s efforts to boost renminbi’s role in global commerce The case for a strategic allocation to gold WSJ / ‘Net Zero’ Will Mean a Mining Boom. But political instability will make it difficult to obtain all the minerals electric cars will need Swiss inflation comes in at 2.9% YoY, but as usual depends on how you weigh components, see Thread below US debt ceiling impasse pushes price of insuring against default to 11-year high Markets : Softer U.S data, rates expectation pushing USDollar down further through key long-term support of 1.1030+ EURUSD, Cable 1.2500+, USDCHF below 0.8950/.90000 etc ETH rises to $2100, GOLD approaching ATH's, Silver trying (needs 27+ for the big bulls..), XPT picking up a little bit of steam too Equity markets love a bit of cooling inflation , lower USDollar and lower vols (eq and bonds), earnings report next, with banks starting the show today The #VIX ended the day at 17.75, lowest close in 15 months (so beware of an unexpected scenario from here, vols are cheap, now is time to buy a hedge, if you need one!) Saxo Bank receives investment grade rating from SP | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Excellent-great news FirstFT: US debt ceiling impasse pushes price of insuring against default to 11-year high | Financial Times Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance | Financial Times (ft.com) these kind of calls don't mean much in reality...pure political shenanigans.. but there you go, there are quite a few of them around these days The case for a strategic allocation to gold | World Gold Council Gold Is Near a Record High and It Could Keep Climbing. | Barron's (barrons.com) We must slow down the race to God-like AI | Financial Times (ft.com) Criminals will use ChatGPT to unleash wave of fraud, warn cyber experts (yahoo.com) "I don't really understand it. I think it's an incredible technological advance in terms of what we can do," says Warren Buffett on artificial intelligence. "It scares me in terms of the possibility of it. I think this is extraordinary but I don't know if it's beneficial." ChatGPT: intelligent, stupid or downright dangerous? - SWI swissinfo.ch me open minded, but can see the flaws this could bring.. Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "There was good news for grocery shoppers: Food prices showed the weakest performance since November 2020, being flat on the month. That was helped by a 10.9% plunge in the price of eggs from February to March – the biggest decline since 1987! (BBG) https://t.co/GRt5sW7zuj" / Twitter Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Egg prices getting fried, poached, and scrambled … m/m drop of -10.9% for CPI eggs in March was largest since December 1987 https://t.co/wEH0QNIXQW" / Twitter egg inflation mania is over ‘Net Zero’ Will Mean a Mining Boom - WSJ Not just LA.. Dublin Office Space Take-Up Drops 42% in Sign of Further Stress - Bloomberg It's everywhere a similar picture SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son Is Giving Up On Jack Ma’s Alibaba | Observer How Credit Suisse's Emergency Rescue is Viewed From Abroad (finews.asia) The Swiss Times on Twitter: "March #inflation, #Switzerland. Officially est'd at 2.9%y/y, but this depends on how you weight the components. To this eye 2.9% looks too low for lower income people with disproportionately higher outlays on food & rent. Next tweet: English translation Follow @TheSwissTimes! https://t.co/CSOrHvGkK2" / Twitter Government retreats from Brexit bill plan to ditch EU laws | Brexit | The Guardian GBPUSD - just for a long-term view - while USD rates expectations remains bearish (cuts), USDollar can stay weak, 1.30 CABLE not all that crazy at all in short-ish term

Warren Buffet tears into banks (slams banks for hiding their losses), trashes bitcoin, and warns inflation and recession can lead to big problems (late 70's example, Volcker etc), hence Fed has to stay strong, talked about his recent JPN Investments (and JPY? is he looking for end of YCC..?).. FOMC minutes: Staff’s projections included a mild recession starting later this year According to the number crunchers with the Committee for a Responsible U.S Federal Budget, the government is borrowing roughly $6 billion a day Row casts shadow on Joe Biden visit to Belfast. US President reaches out as a ‘friend’ to Unionists amid warnings against America intervening in power sharing row Italian residents' deposits with domestic banks fell in February for a fourth month, hitting their lowest level in just over two years as rising interest rates and high inflation prompted savers to seek remuneration for their cash, data showed ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies BoE : New technology means that banks can collapse much more quickly than before, the Governor of the Bank of England has warned The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged for the second straight meeting, saying recent data is reinforcing its confidence that inflation will continue to slow North Korea missile launch sparks panic and evacuations in Japan. A South Korean military official said the test apparently involved a new weapons system displayed at a recent North Korean military parade, possibly using solid fuel ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May Markets : USDollar remains soft(er), drifting lower as cooling inflation brings end in sigh for Fed rate hikes, one more and done probably, whether the FED actually cuts what the market has already priced in, is another question. Nomura looking for 120 USDJPY by year-end (see article below) - vols are low, if you were looking for some downside play it's now.. SPX500 tested that 4150 area and corrected back to 41, we are definitely getting into expensive valuations 4150/4200 area is not really the place to increase risk over earnings reports period. Commods, GOLD, copper all holding up well / grinding higher, XAGUSD could start to have some gappy price action Upside pain? Goldman's flow guru, Scott Rubner, is back and he is bullish. Main bullets are: 1. Positioning is very short and fundamental investors are under exposed given low net HF exposure 2. Flow of fund technicals remain favorable from CTA’s, tax deadlines pass, and corporates return to the open window 3. Sentiment remains bearish, and “JOMO” joy of missing out, turns back into “FOMO” fear of missing out 4. Liquidity is the highest level of 2023 Given the fact implied volatility has imploded, playing a possible squeeze with upside calls offer attractive risk reward. Warren Buffett tears into banks, trashes bitcoin, and warns inflation and recession can lead to big problems (yahoo.com) and Warren Buffett's trip is a 'stamp of approval' for investing in Japan (cnbc.com) Warren Buffett: why he bought 5 Japanese trading houses (cnbc.com) He has more patience, long-term, than anyone, but they don't really look all that cheap looking a a 20y chart.. The tale of US CPI, Fed meeting minutes and the market's wild ride (fxstreet.com) Banks at risk of faster collapses in social media age, says Andrew Bailey (telegraph.co.uk) Yes indeed, everyone has an Iphone... why didn't they realize this a long while back..?? they probably still using checks! Exclusive-ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May - sources (yahoo.com) Row casts shadow on Joe Biden visit to Belfast | Evening Standard Why bitcoin will never eclipse gold | MoneyWeek Denmark based Securities Brokerage Firm Saxo Bank AS assigned BBB Rating (home.saxo) positive development for all involved - well done Saxo Bank lanciert neues Zinsmodell (advisorworld.ch) Previous Restructuring May Minimise Impact of Credit Suisse Sale on FX Market (financemagnates.com) How the Swiss Parliament Deludes Itself Over Credit Suisse (finews.asia) Italy questions plan to reintroduce bears after country’s first fatal attack | The Independent Sounded like a great idea initially.. ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies | The Hill President Joe Biden's fortress on wheels: Meet 'The Beast' | ITV News The beast! Russia’s elite begins to ponder a Putinless future | The Economist North Korea missile launch sparks confusion in Japan - BBC News Japan yen could hit 120 this year, Nomura says (cnbc.com) from Nomura SPX500

BofA's Hartnett has what he calls “the Dirty Dozen” — 12 charts that he says indicate recession. TheSPX rally “from 3.8k to 4.1-4.2k likely run its course; we say ‘sell the last rate hike’ on May 3rd.” - Thread and the charts below March saw biggest tightening in US Small Business Credit Availability since 2002 (joint 2nd biggest on record). NFIB confirms credit tightening happening as a result of bank failures. 1st clear sign for Fed to digest/Thread. NFP was strong on the surface, yet things like NFIB hiring plans were down to 15, a cycle low, so we can definitely find some weakness underneath The issue with fewer bank deposits is that banks end up having to/forced to sell their asset books too, including UST's Elon Musk is rebranding Twitter as X Corp. The name change is part of the billionaire's goal to make an "everything app". Musk Dismisses concerns about misinfo and hate on Twitter, jokes his Dog Floki is CEO now FED talks yesterday : Williams sounded fairly hawkish, downplaying potential impact of headwinds from slower activity in credit (after SVB etc), while Goolsbee appearing to be dovish (monetary policy approach calling for prudence and patience on credit impact in markets) Twenty S&P 500 stocks account for 90% of Wall Street’s gains this year "Large speculators, mostly hedge funds, saw their net short positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures increase to roughly 321,000 contracts as of Tuesday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s the most bearish reading since November 2011 following the downgrade of the US’s sovereign credit rating." As part of the annual report for its System Open Market Account for 2022, the bank said that Fed holdings, which now stand at $8.7 trillion, will likely fall to around $6 trillion by the middle of 2025 before holding steady for around a year Swiss parliament's lower house rejects Credit Suisse rescue package >>> all a bit symbolic... funds have already been committed ! politicians questioning the ''droit d'urgence'' and how often it's been used in recent years.. Markets : ALL about CPI, HF positioning is short EQ and bonds..see above comments and below Thread + Hartnett's stuff CHF did not weaken with all the CS stuff, you could almost think SNB was buying a few CHF to calm things down and not give the wrong impression!?.. SNB wants a strong currency to fight inflation.. XAGUSD breaking up (again CPI day so play accordingly) - chart below Crude, commods, precious metals slightly higher, USDollar softer too, all will continue if/when U.S CPI shows signs of peaking, and vice versa! NY Fed report sees several more years of balance sheet contraction (msn.com) Small Business Confidence Declines in March as Economic Uncertainty Continues, NFIB Says (msn.com) Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "B of A’s Hartnett has what he calls “the Dirty Dozen” — 12 charts that he says indicate recession. The $SPX rally “from 3.8k to 4.1-4.2k likely run its course; we say ‘sell the last rate hike’ on May 3rd.” https://t.co/XFPXMdQWaP" / Twitter Fed's Williams: The Fed has its 'work cut out' bringing down inflation (yahoo.com) Viraj Patel on Twitter: "⚠️ March saw biggest tightening in US Small Business Credit Availability since 2002 (joint 2nd biggest on record). NFIB confirms credit tightening happening as a result of bank failures. 1st clear sign for Fed to digest. Hard to see this as temporary at this stage of cycle $USD https://t.co/U89HVQMzPu" / Twitter It has become illegal to support Russia in the Czech Republic | The Spectator Australia Hedge Fund Confidence Higher, but Still Lagging Long-Term - The Full FX Wind and solar generated a record amount of global power in 2022 (cnbc.com) >>> still a long way to go..An analysis published Wednesday by independent climate think tank Ember found that 12% of the world’s power came from solar and wind in 2022, up from 10% of global electricity generation in 2021. Why a clean energy transition is so important to G7 chair Japan - Business - Dunya News Musk Dismisses Concerns About Misinfo And Hate On Twitter, Jokes His Dog Floki Is CEO Now (forbes.com) Can President Biden put pressure on the DUP? - BBC News Our ailing productivity is workers’ payback to the greed of bankers after the 2008 crash (cityam.com) Swiss parliament's lower house rejects Credit Suisse rescue package (yahoo.com) ''Droit d'urgence'' was never really ever used, then suddenly is 3 years or so it was used and abused ? with Covid funds, AXPO (enegy company) and now Credit Suisse... few political parties are questioning this process, is this democratic ?.. >>> Office fédéral de la justice: La Suisse est-elle devenue une république bananière? | Tribune de Genève (tdg.ch) stuff like this.. Shiveluch volcano in far-eastern Russia spews 10-kilometre-high ash plume, covering villages - ABC News crazy stuff, crazy pictures The Pentagon leak explained in under 60 seconds - BBC News XAGUSD >>> remember the last time we got to $30, margins were increased dramatically and markets corrected (you could call it manipulation..but there you go), let's see how far we go this time (over next few weeks-months, in 2011 when the US had an issue with debt ceiling we reached the $40+ levels..)

Joe Biden will visit Ireland on the Good Friday peace agreement anniversary, This week : after China's slightly softer CPI +0.7% (exp +1%), focus is on FED speakers tomorrow (Goolsbee, Harker and Kashkari), U.S CPI (Wed) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a recent sharp drop in bond yields will ease headwinds for the US economy stemming from recent turmoil in the banking sector >>>> BofA sticks with their logic and sees the current set up playing out like the one we saw in the 70s/80s. The crowd is too bullish rate cuts and not bearish enough on the recession. Latest JOLTS data vs Fed Funds needs little commenting Small businesses across the United States are experiencing a surge in bankruptcies, surpassing levels not seen since 2020. According to a UBS note reviewed by The Epoch Times, conditions could become worse as the knock-on effects from the recent banking crises begin to manifest Tesla is building a new factory in Shanghai. The EV company will make its Megapack batteries at the new facility, deepening its investment in China despite trade tensions with the US Credit Suisse collapse may put Singapore in the spotlight NFP data las Friday was pretty much as expected 236K (exp 230K), but given ADP, market was probably looking for a lower print though, so despite rumblings, for now the labor markets remains robust >>> TS Lombard's Steve Blitz in his latest note basically argues that the Fed won't respond to weaker hiring: "March employment data add to the slowing momentum for hiring that the Fed has no intention of reversing. They are, instead, encouraging this slowdown and will get what they want in a few months – unemployment heading towards 4.5%". He still sees Fed funds at 3% by year end What do you play at the start of a recession / Hartnett sums it up (below) "S&P 500 market cap is up ...so far in 2023 but 92% of that rise has come from just 7 large cap stocks and AAPL has account for nearly one-quarter of it" --Citi >>> but that's what makes the market indices! nothing new, but still amazing Hedge funds are reloading on bearish wagers on US equities to a decade high level of exposure, betting the latest market retreat will persist amid worsening economic data and corporate earnings. - Bloomberg/Thread "Mr. Bankman-Fried called Alameda 'unauditable,' saying 'we sometimes find $50m of assets lying around that we lost track of; such is life.'"-WSJ Hundreds of Former Feds have flocked to jobs in Big Tech Markets : Credit crunch (Spreads on BBB CMBS (commercial-mortgage-backed securities) have moved up to 977 bps, their widest level since March 2020) is often hear in economist's chatters these days and many looking for weaker earnings season (..bearish wagers in place..which maybe be the issue for the bears in short-term..!) >>> inflation remains TOO high and too sticky relative to FED's mandate though(we get U.S CPI on Wed) BTC 30K, GOLD near all time highs, USD struggling, so many articles of 'various countries aiming to cut their independence from the $....over the long-term..'' The 3-Month TBills yield is 5.08%, highest level since March 2007, 12months ago it was at 0.70% and two years ago it was at 0.02% >>> Hedge funds moved to short Treasuries aggressively before Friday's non-farm payrolls data. It was the biggest bearish positioning shift since March of 2022 Crude WTI mid 80's after OPEC+ cut, Copper holding up well (chart below) SPX500 4150/4200 box-top end of the range technically Hartnett sums it up: 1. Long T-bills…cash outperforms until Fed cuts aggressively 2. Long yield curve steepeners… 3. Long gold…US dollar debasement 4. Short over-owned assets vulnerable to deleveraging/revenue cuts…IG/HY bonds, US tech, EU luxury, industrial/defense stocks, US private equity...(good luck shorting LVMH...) 4. And prepare shopping list…once labor market indicates recession begins, execute on buy list of distressed cyclicals in banks, REITs, small caps, commodities. Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "Hedge funds are reloading on bearish wagers on US equities to a decade high level of exposure, betting the latest market retreat will persist amid worsening economic data and corporate earnings. - Bloomberg https://t.co/fNwgFlz7RV" / Twitter Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "Spreads on BBB CMBS (commercial-mortgage-backed securities) have moved up to 977 bps, their widest level since March 2020. https://t.co/BZ2yKi4LOm" / Twitter Hundreds Of Former Feds Have Flocked To Jobs In Big Tech | The Daily Caller A world infested with social media messages from previous government officials ?...humm Bob Elliott on Twitter: "Inflation is too high and too sticky given the Fed's mandate, and in the short-term it looks like things are going in the wrong direction. Lets start CPI week with a quick review of what's going on with inflation pressures. First, breakdown of the most recent PCE report: https://t.co/OwYU4nRt7c" / Twitter Bitcoin tops $30,000 for the first time since June (cnbc.com) Bank Failures. High Inflation. Rising Rates. Is the Resilient Jobs Market About to Crack? - WSJ >>> could be, though no real clear signs of slowing down, yet anyway Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "APOLLO: “The credit crunch has started. .. A survey of 71 banks in the Dallas Fed district done after SVB went under shows a dramatic reversal in loan volumes, .. from March 21 to 29.” [Slok] $KRE $XLF https://t.co/tTtev6Zwkd" / Twitter Packers fear influx of cage eggs from Mexico with new trade deal - Farmers Weekly (fwi.co.uk) another Brexit win - bravo New UBS CEO tries to calm staff fears - SWI swissinfo.ch Credit Suisse Collapse May Put Singapore in the Spotlight (finews.asia) Joe Biden is making his first visit to Ireland as president (qz.com) Why Ireland is so important to Joe Biden - BBC News End May Be in Sight for Global Rate-Hike Cycle as Fed Nears Peak - SWI swissinfo.ch Must admit it's a lovely story, there is going to film about it sooner or later! Ryan Reynolds ‘troubled’ by how hooked he is on football after Wrexham win | Evening Standard Failed crypto giant FTX's failure was rooted in SBF's 'incompetence and greed' | Daily Mail Online Japanese trading houses rise as Warren Buffett says he plans on buying more (cnbc.com) U.S. and the Philippines hold largest war drills near disputed waters (cnbc.com) Taiwan’s president condemns China drills as irresponsible | Politics News | Al Jazeera Putin’s army unleashing ‘scorched earth tactics’ on Bakhmut after heavy losses, says Ukrainian commander | Evening Standard CPTPP: UK-Asia trade deal boosting economy by 0.08% could be overestimate | The Independent more lies and propaganda France's Macron to visit Netherlands amid row over China comments (msn.com) Copper steady/trending higher