S&P Global Ratings has upgraded #Saxo's long-term issuer credit rating to 'A-' from 'BBB' - details below - great news for investors and clients #NEM (and other gold, silver miners) one of the most incredible of all commodity-equity disconnections/divergence - charts below, #Silver ( #xagusd the oldest money in the world) even outpaced made-up internet money yesterday #SILJ catch up could be quite something (chart) >>> surging precious metals, crude + rising UST yields is certainly different! and possibly a dangerous combination for markets, reinforces value over growth - the longer inflation/rates remain on a higher plateau, the higher probability markets see a huge shift of capital towards #VALUE #TSLA Q1 deliveries “fell so far short .. that it was its biggest miss ever.” #UST10y yields highest since November, data overall remains strong (stronger ISM) + spending & higher debt out of control.. >>> high(er) for longer... Less than 50% probability of June rate cut following Strong Factory and other data For all its faults, democracy is still better than autocracy. All the evidence shows that despotism cannot consistently deliver the economic goods for developing countries #Mag7 now accounts for 30% of the SPX , highest concentration in history NATO proposes a $100 billion, five year fund to support Ukraine, war bonds coming! Mongolia's central bank purchases 3.4 tons of #gold in Q1...another 1 buying.. Americans spent over $113 billion on lottery tickets last year, more than they spent on movies, books, concerts and sports tickets - combined! The Medicare payment decision that rocked health insurer stocks Tuesday sets up a high-stakes election year gamble for the Biden administration as seniors could end up seeing cutbacks in their health plans right before Election Day #Copper price rallies amid rising optimism on Chinese economic outlook Biden and Xi Jinping hold phone call ahead of Yellen’s trip to China 7.2 magnitude earthquake hits Taiwan, semiconductor delays coming, could be weeks for some factories to come back online Warren Buffett Indicator (total value of all publicly traded stocks/GDP ratio) is at its 2nd highest level in history and much higher than during the Dotcom Bubble and the GFC S&P Global Ratings has upgraded its long-term issuer credit rating to 'A-' from 'BBB'. This credit rating upgrade reflects Saxo Bank’s strengthened financial profile, including its efforts to increase its resolvability and enhance its subordinated debt buffers in alignment with regulatory requirements for systemically important institutions (SIFIs) Investor Relations | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Market Reacts: Less Than 50% Probability of June Rate Cut Following Strong Factory Data ( msn.com ) Fed’s Mester and Daly expect 3 rate cuts this year ( msn.com ) Big Oil Is Beating Big Tech as Eyes Turn to Crucial OPEC Meeting ( yahoo.com ) Copper price rallies amid rising optimism on Chinese economic outlook - MINING.COM Lithium trading hits record on CME as funds seize budding market - MINING.COM Israel airstrike on Iran consulate in Syria raises oil prices ( qz.com ) CNBC on X: "The debt load of the U.S. is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days. https://t.co/q4sbaaaPCA https://t.co/T7PFcgg1Oh " / X ( twitter.com ) Out of control...no wonder #GOLD is bid (and silver, crude, PLAT etc..) US Government Debt Risk: A Million Simulations Show Danger Ahead - Bloomberg Biden and Xi Jinping hold phone call ahead of Yellen's trip to China ( cnbc.com ) Steve Eisman says the Fed shouldn't cut rates ( cnbc.com ) Health Insurers Tumble as Final Medicare Advantage Rates Disappoint ( yahoo.com ) Can't afford it anymore, forcing prices lower....hum CVS, Humana, other health stocks hit by lower Medicare rates ( qz.com ) Barchart on X: "Warren Buffett Indicator (total value of all publicly traded stocks/GDP ratio) is at its 2nd highest level in history and much higher than during the Dotcom Bubble and the GFC. The only time it was higher was in 2022, when the $SPX fell by 19% over the next year. https://t.co/uiMBV0urj9 " / X ( twitter.com ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "OUCH! #Tesla mkt cap dropped to $529bn b/c a 'nightmare' quarter ended w/it falling wildly short on deliveries said it delivered 386,810 electric vehicles over Q1 of 2024, falling wildly short of Wall St’s expectations. https://t.co/0FPGPwZjz0 " / X ( twitter.com ) It's not as if EV sales and prices been bullish lately... but noone had the estimates so low, and the bearish view there is on slower demand, prices/lower margins and therefore lower earnings, the bullish case is based around stuff that doesn't even exist nor makes money For all its faults, democracy is still better than autocracy ( ft.com ) Mongolia's central bank purchases 3.4 tons of gold in Q1 - China.org.cn Watch moment 7.2 magnitude earthquake hits Taiwan ( msn.com ) GOLD prices vs Newmount corp - ridiculously cheap ! #NEM Junior Silver minors - way way too low - breaking up (gold miners way too cheap too) #Silver #XAGUSD breaking up - finally HangSeng looks set to break up

Markets : UST's reacted sharply to ISM, yields up 12bps or so, 1st rate cut will push to September if ADP/NFP remains strong, crude breaking above 2+ years of trendlione resistance (China data, ISM up), just as GOLD (mainly) and Silver up too ( commodity complex about to have a big rally by the looks. .).. India's PMI stepped up to another level! hitting a 16y high Week ahead : in line PCE last Friday, China PMI and U.S ISM were stronger, next this week we have Economic Calendar ( tradingeconomics.com ) ISM manufacturing: ISM manufacturing rose more than expected to 50.3 (exp 48.5), this is the first positive headline reading since late 2022. New orders, production, and employment sub-indices were all higher >>> 1st rate cut expectations soon to be pushed to Sep 2024.. The S&P 500 is up 25% since the November FOMC meeting. That is a $10.9 trillion increase in the market cap of the S&P 500 in five months. Similarly, with lower rates and tighter credit spreads, the market cap of the US bond market is up $2.6 trillion. That’s a total increase in wealth since the Fed pivot of $13.5 trillion. For comparison, US consumer spending in 2023 was $19 trillion/Apollo The Newmont-to-gold ratio is currently at its lowest point in 44 years, The Qatar Central Bank reported (via IMF) that its #gold  reserves rose by nearly 2'000kg in Feb. their reserves now exceed 100 tonnes Amazing stat: 98% of Warren Buffett's current net worth came after he turned 65. The power of time and uninterrupted compounding A US homebuyer now needs to earn $114k to afford an average priced home for sale, problem is, that's 35% more than the median household income BofA "US government spending past 5 months = $2.7tn, up 9% YoY…on course for $6.7tn in FY24; US national debt rising $1tn every 100 days…set to hit $35tn in May'24, $37tn by US election, $40tn in H2'25" >>> America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054 Turkey election results likely to keep local markets in 'turmoil' , in some sort of perpetual election mode, spending, and thus further devaluation quite likely Trump media : back to earth .. Trump Media said it lost $58.2 million in 2023, compared with a profit of $50.5 million in 2022, revenues of ....$4.1 MIO... and still worth billions, lik I said last week, he should add crypto to the balancesheet, or Ai to the name to save it..or both! White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Thursday about a potential mega-deal that would include saudi normalization with Israel Gold prices hit new record high on Fed cut expectations ( cnbc.com ) Gold Mining Stocks Are Stupid Cheap as Gold Prices Hit Record Highs | InvestorPlace Utah Greenlights Gold and Silver Holdings to Protect State Reserve Funds ( moneymetals.com ) Might have to do with this... America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054 ( msn.com ) Javier Blas on X: "OIL MARKET: Brent rises above $88 a barrel, nearing a 6-month high. Tightening physical market as OPEC+ rollovers its output cuts, healthy demand, and Middle East tension contribute to the price increase | #OOTT" / X ( twitter.com ) 6be3c31aef2d4bf8ba7fd4de921ab92f ( spglobal.com ) Scoop: Sullivan to meet MBS to push Saudi side of Israel mega-deal ( axios.com ) Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in no hurry to lower interest rates ( qz.com ) ISM might get them to come out and say sifferently, so watch out for those FED speakers Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The Newmont-to-gold ratio is currently at its lowest point in 44 years.    Today's levels are likely marking a major double bottom, however, the valuation proposition is what makes this opportunity truly compelling in our view.   Gold miners are undoubtedly the most hated… https://t.co/X7gOfxR1YD " / X ( twitter.com ) But We Are Long-Term Investors ( microcapclub.com ) In 1951, at the age of 21, Warren Buffett put 53% of his portfolio into GEICO Buffett would make a quick 50% return in a year - turning $10,282 ($122,000 in today’s dollars) into $15,259 ($180,000). Not bad for a young 20-something. He sold GEICO and put the proceeds into a cheaper stock. This was part of a five year run where Buffett would average ~50% annual returns, growing his capital 10x breaking the $100,000 mark, equivalent to $1mio today Typical Household Earns $29,000 Less Than Needed to Afford Median Home ( redfin.com ) Trump Media stock plunges 20% after company reveals $58 million loss ( qz.com ) What goes up on fresh air, goes down on fresh air Trump puts up $175m bond and avoids having his assets seized ( msn.com ) Microsoft, OpenAI plan $100 billion 'Stargate' supercomputer ( qz.com ) Brexit: New tariffs for UK exports to Canada after failure to secure exemption ( cityam.com ) Still a winner that Brexit stuff..! The good Record-breaking Switzerland: from the world’s steepest railway to the largest igloo - SWI swissinfo.ch and the bad Switzerland sees record levels of theft in 2023 - SWI swissinfo.ch Erdogan sees 'turning point' for Turkey after poll defeat ( rte.ie ) Turkey opposition stuns in local elections victory over Erdogan party ( cnbc.com ) Havana Syndrome in Vietnam: Possible Russian role in attack on Americans, according to new evidence - CBS News #EURCHF and #GBPCHF keep going #WTI

Fed's Waller, known hawk, is in no hurry to cut (either real print lower in inflation or deteriorating economy is needed to change his mind), Oz equity markets hit new highs on softer than expected inflation data, 7y UST auction also went like a dream, 1bp through (not surprising with the usual month quarter-end bid in bonds), USD a little firmer, GOLD near highs, beware month/quarter end flows today, markets mostly closed (FX open) tomorrow for the PCE data + Powell “A sticky inflation scenario is maybe not a baseline, but it is a realistic case . And I think investors and people looking at the economy need to start thinking about it:” Pimco’s Richard Clarida The ECB may be able to lower interest rates “swiftly” even as workers receive large wage increases to catch up with two years of elevated inflation Nearly half of all investors expect a "no landing" scenario for the economy where inflation remains but there’s no recession , Deutsche Bank survey shows Reinsurers to bear the bulk of insured cost of Baltimore bridge collapse Thiel, Bezos and Zuckerberg join parade of insiders selling tech stocks . Bosses sell hundreds of millions of dollars in company shares this quarter in sign that markets may be peaking? >>> why not, let's see about this, we all know valuations gone a little parabolic of late, so far though, valuations didn't matter Trump Media : DJT : revenues 3mio and loosing cash - valuation $9bn, fwiw price-to-sales is 2000 - what a world, 'Trump hype' maybe but that's real $$$'s >>> Trump should add a few BTC to his balance-sheet, add 'Ai' to his company name and crypto tech group, and the shares will go to $1K and he will be one of the richest person in the world..! BOJ Latest : Japan’s FX chief Masato Kanda vowed to take appropriate action against excessive swings without ruling out any options, saying he sees speculative moves behind the yen’s plunge. Most traders are now eyeing 152 per dollar as a possible trigger for direct intervention JPM's Dubravko does not give up '' S&P 500 will plummet 20% and finish the year at 4,200' ', one of the reason is ''Crude Oil could soar to $100/barrel before the U.S. Presidential Election due to Russia's production cuts warns JP Morgan'' Citi raises China 2024 GDP growth forecast to 5.0% from 4.6% previously The Fed has $950 bn in unrealized losses on their Treasury/MBS holdings BOE's Haskel: I think rate cuts are a long way off https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditions/forex/trading-conditions Markets opening hours during Easter weekend Fed's Waller is in 'no rush' to cut rates in 2024 ( msn.com ) Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook - Federal Reserve Board Labor market pulse: Hiring strength for lower-income workers | Vanguard Xi Jinping to China’s central bank: restart treasury-bond trade, after 2-decade hiatus | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Federal Reserve Banks: Combined Financial Statements 2023 >>> unrealized losses, probably doesn't matter, or does it..eventually.. JPMorgan Says Stocks Are So Crowded They May Crack at Any Time ( yahoo.com ) Irrespective of anyone's thinking, it's worth reading about the why it will go down in his view US Inflation Is Looking Stickier Than Economists Expected, Clarida Says - Bloomberg Nearly half of all investors expect a ‘no landing’ scenario for the economy where inflation remains but there’s no recession, Deutsche Bank survey shows | Fortune ECB Has Room to Cut Swiftly Despite Wage Rebound, Cipollone Says - Bloomberg Thiel, Bezos and Zuckerberg join parade of insiders selling tech stocks ( ft.com ) It is allowed for them to sell,, and the markets have rallied big last few months, so only natural but worth pointing out Record sewage spills into England rivers and seas in 2023 - BBC News Scandalous! Reinsurers to bear the bulk of insured cost of Baltimore bridge collapse, says AM Best - Reinsurance News Cocoa Prices: Chocolatiers Between a Hammer and a Hard Place | Balance sheet ( bilan.ch ) Prix du cacao: Les chocolatiers entre le marteau et l’enclume | Bilan Sam Bankman-Fried to be sentenced in FTX collapse: What to know ( qz.com ) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "Gold and silver miners appear to be having their own “second wave” of free cash flow growth.   Stock prices are cheap, fundamentals are improving, underlying metal prices are breaking out, market sentiment is in the toilet, and positioning is completely uncrowded.   If this is… https://t.co/bnVVxhl3kB " / X ( twitter.com ) Blackstone CEO Reportedly Attended Xi Jinping Meeting ( finews.asia ) Chinese President Xi Jinping tells U.S. CEOs to keep investing ( qz.com ) And, 'in the corner of world gone mad' US man changes name to ‘Literally Anybody Else’ and announces US presidential bid | The Straits Times

At these prices, next year's Easter bunnies will be 3x the price! Choccy crisis! as cocoa prices hit 10K a ton U.S core PCE on Friday, FX markets open, Gold (precious metals is not), low liquidity is data 'out of expectations' >>> UST 5y notes auction of $66bn yesterday went off like a dream, by 1bp through, 7y auction today >>> FED's Waller important today, see FT article below, big picture, we continue to think the market may well move to 2, then 1 cut only in 2024 (sticky inflation, strong employment still, for now economy remains relatively strong, with all this fiscal spending! Closing in on Q1 2024, with VIX hitting all-time lows vs cross asset volatiliies # USDJPY near the big 152 marker, highs seen 1990 and 1998 when BoJ intervened, levels now 'beyond previous interventions levels, they will need more than 'talk talk' , '' Japan's finance minister talked again about "decisive steps" to address "disorderly" currency moves China sued the US at the WTO over rules that discourage EV makers from buying Chinese battery materials. The Inflation Reduction Act and related regs are “discriminatory” and have “seriously distorted” the global supply chain U.S 2nd tier data yesterday was a little softer, Philii Fed, Richamind Fed manuf, Dallas services and consumer confidence TSMC : The world's biggest chips producer is on a high-speed hiring spree #XAUUSD : Switch to gold standard could stabilise prices – Philadelphia Fed research FUNDSTRAT: “.. Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps , where we see at least 50% upside .. Russell 2000 companies are set to grow .. faster than the $SPX  .. Valuations are far more attractive .. when CEO confidence recovers, we also see the low valuations as setting the stage for synergistic M&A ..” Markets : enjoying this low vol period, liquiditie splenty and 'mem' stocks franzy. UST 5y auction showed no issue whatsoever yesterday, usual bond bid into month quarter.end mentioned....together with a 'sell eq' at some point, all well documented by major market makers Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "Are we witnessing a turning point in the way major central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, implement their inflation-targeting regimes? Some thoughts via the Financial Times: https://t.co/FiXWESsZ0O  #economy #centralbanks #inflation @FT #EconTwitter https://t.co/3dTcI0hyFD " / X FED's Waller speaks today, he first spoke about this in Q4, so he is the key The Kobeissi Letter on X: "How out of control is US government spending? "Since 1800, there have been 52 countries that saw a Debt-to-GDP above 130%, 51 of those countries have defaulted." - @TKL_Adam with @cvpayne Currently, the US has a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 124% which is up over 20% since 2020. The… https://t.co/OyUaenXG8x " / X ( twitter.com ) Switch to gold standard could stabilise prices – Philadelphia Fed research - Central Banking #USDCNH Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 "One camp says the yuan will likely stabilize because the PBoC is trying to curb its depreciation, while another argues volatility will increase as officials are trying to loosen their grip on the currency and guide it lower to boost exports." https://t.co/9wnmt5UCqu " / X ( twitter.com ) >>> if USDJPY goes 160+, China will let USDCNH go higher Fed posts record loss of $114.3 billion in 2023 ( msn.com ) Alf on X: "Liquidity is going up, liquidity is going down, liquidity here, liquidity there. Sure: but what is ''liquidity''? Thread. 1/" / X ( twitter.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸The Treasury sells $66b 5y notes today, the highest for this tenor on record‼️ Demand may be strong because: -At 4.25%, it would be the 4th highest auct yield since 2007 - This tenor offers an optimal risk-reward: yields need to rise above 5.5% within one year to enter the red https://t.co/FfS1glgFZZ " / X ( twitter.com ) Chipmaker TSMC is on an AI-fueled hiring spree ( qz.com ) Elon Musk's Tesla returns to Facebook to launch ads amid sales slump ( qz.com ) Pershing-Square-Holdings-Ltd.-2023-Annual-Report.pdf ( pershingsquareholdings.com ) Ackman going a little Buffetesque in his annual letter Without a bank, Migros posts a loss of 138 million euros – Inside Paradeplatz Bitcoin crosses $71,000 with new record high in sight and 'halving' soon ( qz.com ) Javier Blas on X: "🍫🍫🍫THE CHOCOLATE CRISIS — an UPDATED thread🆕🆕🆕: Retail chocolate prices are rising (and will increase much further, while shrinkflation will reduce sizes) after wholesale cocoa prices surged to an unthinkable all-time high of ***$10,000 a ton*** on Tuesday. 1/15 @Opinion https://t.co/rX9pUhInz0 " / X ( twitter.com ) Fires From 2023 Smoldering Under Snow Reveal Canada's Dangerous New Reality - Bloomberg NAture! whaooo Fort Bend Co. neighbors want to know whether solar panel farm's hailstorm damage leaked chemicals ( msn.com ) Brutal... WHo pays up for the cleaning up and replacement ?

FT - US debt is on an 'unprecedented' trajectory that could lead to a Liz Truss-style market shock , the head of Congress’s independent fiscal watchdog has warned >>> USDollar and XAUUSD implications ? Oil prices are now up 17% this year and well above $80/barrel again. OPEC remains committed to production cuts and geopolitical tensions have threatened supply + global demand forecasts are being raised and inflation is rebounding One of the most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations. For nearly 15 years, most investors and central banks have held that neutral in around 2-2.5%, but increasing evidence it may be higher, even 4-5%/Thread - it is already is a few macro frund's thoughts.. "The New York Fed has constructed a new measure of trend wage inflation, which currently is running at 5%...Wage inflation at 5% is not consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer:" Apollo PBOC is "alarmed" by the weakness of the yen (concerned over yuan implications) >>>''' Dear BoJ, if you let USDJPY push higher, we will be forced follow to weaken CNH to stay competitive''' Why do Western companies circumvent sanctions? What is the US policy of containing China? How is China reacting to sanctions on Russia? Will the potential Trump presidency be beneficial for the world economy? What does the market think about WW3? Igor Yelnik and Sir Michael Fallon speak with Bilal Hafeez, CEO & Head of Research, Macro Hive/video FED's Bostic repeated that he expects just -1- rate cut in 2024  French public deficit widened to 5.5% in 2023, above target of 4.9% Choccy getting super expensive next ! Cocoa prices hit $10K per ton More than 85% of Treasury issuance is in short-term bills , the highest since 2001/2002 BOE's Mann: Markets are pricing in too many rate cuts Trump bond in New York case reduced to $175 million from $454 million. Trump’s Truth Social is going public today. Experts warn $9 billion valuation defies logic Unwinding British QE may end up costing £100bn. Could that have been avoided? >>> the big question is why unwind them??? let them run-off! at no cost Financial Times on X: "FT Exclusive: US debt is on an 'unprecedented' trajectory that could lead to a Liz Truss-style market shock, the head of Congress’s independent fiscal watchdog has warned https://t.co/JLiKKeQE9z https://t.co/ljX3OpInL1 " / X ( twitter.com ) Unwinding British QE may end up costing £100bn. Could that have been avoided? ( ft.com ) Why unwind at a huge cost???? let them run off The Trapped Economy: Americans Can't Buy a Home, Car, or Find a New Job ( businessinsider.com ) economy really doing so well, so that the majority of folks can afford a new flat ? a car ? not so fast, not so clear cut.. Can't afford new homes and yet The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: New Home Prices are now down 20% from their highs, in bear market territory, and falling faster than rates seen in 2008, according to Reventure. New home prices peaked in late-2022 at $497,000 and have fallen to $401,000 as of the latest data. In the financial crisis,… https://t.co/N0ZTcCLSEN " / X ( twitter.com ) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Oil prices are now up 17% this year and well above $80/barrel again. OPEC remains committed to production cuts and geopolitical tensions have threatened supply. Meanwhile, global demand forecasts are being raised and inflation is rebounding. Even as non-OPEC production is at… https://t.co/nZtz6w23t4 " / X ( twitter.com ) (1) Bob Elliott on X: "One of the most consequential shifts in global markets over the next decade would be a re-pricing of neutral rate expectations. For nearly 15 years, most investors and central banks have held that neutral in around 2-2.5%, but increasing evidence it may be higher, even 4-5%. https://t.co/TGaJ3pDcvw " / X ( twitter.com ) Or maybe a lot quicker than this! World Bank Document “In the modern era, gold continues to play a critical role in the global financial system, serving as a hedge against inflation, a safe haven asset, and a reserve asset for central banks. … gold remains a crucial component of the global financial system and is likely to continue to play an essential role in the future.” Capital Horizons - Bilal Hafeez - "Sanctions don't really work!" ( youtube.com ) they sure don't when only half the world (at best) follow them... everyone pretending and yet doping their own things through the back door.. DIRECT. Moscow attack: three new suspects remanded in custody ( bfmtv.com ) Baltimore Key Bridge collapse – latest: Bridge falls into river with pedestrians after being hit by large ship ( msn.com ) INfrastructure work !! needed, not just there! Australia chose Aukus and now it faces the prospect of having no submarine capability for at least a decade | Malcolm Turnbull | The Guardian Cocoa Tops $9,000 Mark for First Time on Global Supply Crunch - Bloomberg Middle East crisis live: Hamas emboldened to reject ceasefire proposal after UN vote, Israel claims ( msn.com ) Trump’s Truth Social is going public today. Experts warn $9 billion valuation defies logic ( msn.com ) #eurchf #gbpchf coming along nicely

Last week saw a dovish shift (and few cuts) from major central banks, essentially the FED signalled their willingness to cut rates to head off job-cutting spiral - even if it means slightly higher inflation for a while >>> U.S PCE on Friday will be key to follow, even though Europe will be out, market pricing is for 3 to 4 cuts in 2024 still. This week, Fed speakers today (Bostic, Goolsbee and Cook), Powell on Friday, geopolitical risks on the increase, France raises terror alert level, Moscow terror attacks, Israel/Gaza ongoing Donald Trump’s $464mn bond is due today . What happens next?. End of grace period could set off next phase of fight between former president and New York attorney-general Deutsche Bank's latest markets survey. Investors "seem happy for central banks to tolerate an extended period of above-target inflation." The Indian Giant Has Arrived-El-Erian article FT - U.S urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries... Why ? ... is it because the U.S SPR is pretty much empty and higher Oil prices would not be welcome for U.S inflation outlook and the FED's apparent willingness to cut rates ahead of U.S election in June or July US, Japan plan biggest upgrade to security pact in over 60 years, FT Nike, Lululemon, Tesla, Apple.... all struggling on CHINA focusing on local brands.. Is it a golden era for gold? Kinger Lau, Goldman Sachs’ chief China equity strategist, says “fundamentally, it feels like things are stabilizing economically in Chin a. Historically, the A-share market has been more sensitive to economic momentum.” #SHCOMP ''Jan contrarian trade etc''.. is working, long wa to go ! A record amount of money has flooded into US corporate bond markets this year. Inflows into credit funds have reached $22.8bn so far in 202 4, the first positive start to a year since 2019 - no risk there! truly remarkable - all about flood of liquidity! China wants Microsoft and Intel off its computers . Meanwhile, the U.S. is ramping up semiconductor production at home to reduce its reliance on China and Taiwan Fed's Bostic scales back to single rate cut on inflation concerns With stocks pushing higher, and tech triumphant, defensive stocks have lagged behind — investors now hate defensives, and allocations are at record lows. Contrarian signal? Equity markets have continued to perform well (higher valuation rather than improving fundamentals), mostly on easier financial conditions, where investors from all corners feel almost forced to participate. USD stays firm on overall dovish CB's Top US diplomat warns Israel of global isolation if it attacks Rafah | Reuters Putin vows to punish those behind Russia concert massacre | Reuters Rosenberg: As Russia mourns, how will Putin react to concert attack? ( msn.com ) US lawmakers fear Russia’s influence in Africa after Niger junta cancels security pact | US foreign policy | The Guardian US, Japan plan biggest upgrade to security pact in over 60 years, FT reports ( msn.com ) France raises its security readiness to highest level after attack in Russia, worried about IS ( msn.com ) Israel-Gaza live: Unrwa ‘barred from north Gaza’ ahead of UN security council vote on new ceasefire resolution ( msn.com ) One to watch for potential higher vol Claus Vistesen on X: "Interesting; could it be related to JPY? -> https://t.co/XlJa6fmQOg " / X ( twitter.com ) Fed's Bostic scales back to single rate cut on inflation concerns | Reuters House Republicans ramp up Speaker Johnson pressure after budget saga ( cnbc.com ) The Indian Giant Has Arrived by Mohamed A. El-Erian & Michael Spence - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org ) CNBC Daily Open: U.S. labor market is in 'good shape' Investors pour money into US corporate bond funds at record rate ( ft.com ) Japan FX tsar says speculation behind weak yen, ready to take action | Reuters Is it a golden era for gold? | J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S. ( jpmorgan.com ) Great write up and charts, couldn't agree more - gold has to be part of course of your investment portfolio, particularly as CB's keep on buying... 'debt debasing of fiat currencies continue' imho China wants Microsoft and Intel off its computers ( qz.com ) China's new guidelines block Intel, AMD chips in government computers: FT ( cnbc.com ) China faces ‘fork in the road,’ IMF chief Georgieva says at CDF forum ( cnbc.com ) BYD Seagull EV puts global auto execs, politicians on edge ( cnbc.com ) Affordable EV - as it should have been for years, that's what it was always meant to be, not 2.5 tons limousines at 100K price tag.. Goldman: We prefer China A-shares to H-shares on a more tactical basis ( cnbc.com ) Europe united?.... Greece ‘behind Russia’s ability to evade EU sanctions’ - Brussels Signal Freddie Ponton 🇫🇷 on X: "🇫🇷🇷🇺🇩🇪 FRANCE - RUSSIA - GERMANY French Nuclear giant Framatome & Russian Nuclear leader Rosatom announced new cooperation for the production of nuclear fuel in a German factory to power Soviet-designed reactors in Eastern Europe. The verbal escalation between French and… https://t.co/0pNZO1HQ62 " / X ( twitter.com ) An Anglo-Italian company says it has cracked bitcoin. People have questions ( ft.com ) Switzerland fails to meet WHO air quality standards - SWI swissinfo.ch Michelle Mone PPE company at risk of being shut down by her former lawyers ( telegraph.co.uk ) amazing its still open Steep rise in deportation flights from Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Donald Trump’s $464mn bond is due on Monday. What happens next? ( ft.com ) Sam Bankman-Fried to be sentenced for multibillion-dollar fraud this week | Sam Bankman-Fried | The Guardian Notre-Dame's new spire revealed as scaffolding removed in Paris ( dezeen.com ) Northern lights predicted in US and UK on Monday night in wake of solar storms | World news | The Guardian A50 china shares - trying - market not convinced yet

#AAPL : "Consumers should not have to pay higher prices because companies break the law.".....The Justice Department has sued Apple claiming that the iPhone maker has a monopoly, The US is suing Apple for allegedly using its power in the smartphone sector to quash competition from rivals and limit consumer choice - pretty aggressive move, considering the EU is also investigating under digital laws FED ready to cut, market pricing 50/50 for June, very tolerant (bullish risk assets for now..), we have 401K's on highs, stock markets new highs, house prices all time highs, economic activity pretty strong overall, air travel back to pre covid times, you can even earn 5% on USD deposit >>>> we know why but ...clearly doesn't feel like it everywhere...but roaring 20's! and we now have June rate cuts predictions across markets, as SNB started the ball rolling yesterday #USDCHF breaking .90+ next up .9200-.93 area - SNB cut 25bps and slashed inflation expectations (in many ways undermining CHF, as if they want it softer going forward... #EURCHF higher) , Norges steady, BoE dovish shift soon ( BoE hawks capitulate! 8-1 split vote to hold) , meanwhile Turkish CB raised rates to 50% (infl 67%..), Brazil cuts 50bps to 10.75% and hints at more, Czech CB cut its key interest rate for a third straight time amid falling inflation and an effort to help the economy Japanese Households have over 1 quadrillion yen in savings, equivalent to approximately $7 Trillion , a lot of money to be put to work, eventually.. >> Japan's core inflation accelerates to 2.8%, the first increase in 4 months . Japan's core inflation has now been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 23 consecutive months. EU PMI mixed, divergence around manuf and services, though price pressure lower in March, which will get ECB to talk more about a June cut China’s New Loans to Nonbanking Institutions Hit Nine-Year High Vanguard doesn’t believe the Fed will cut interest rates this year The world is using more oil than ever, raising questions about when global consumption will peak #USDCNH sudden spike , rising in tandem with other USD's and following the competitive devaluation of the JPY too ? Swiss salaries: high, stable, yet not enough for many (salaries high, so are costs..!) Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who sparred with top public health officials in heated hearings about Covid-19 and the government’s response to the pandemic, has found a Democrat to join him in investigating the virus’ origins...will we ever find out exactly ? A new Covid origin inquiry is bipartisan - POLITICO US sues Apple in antitrust lawsuit | CNN Business and EU still not happy with Apple's DMA compliance — antitrust chief says "we will be investigating" new marketplace fees ( msn.com ) Oil Demand Outpaces Expectations, Testing Calculus on Peak Crude - Bloomberg ING Sees Oil Prices Rising Further on Supply Risk | OilPrice.com Vanguard doesn’t believe the Fed will cut interest rates this year ( cnbc.com ) Copper price resumes rally as Fed rate signals boost industrial metals - MINING.COM China yuan falls to four-month low, state banks step in | Reuters Bloomberg TV on X: "Jeffrey Rosenberg, systemic multi-strategy fund portfolio manager at BlackRock, says he sees a much more challenging environment for longer-dated maturities coming out of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting https://t.co/axz4cXX0qy https://t.co/7tizqB4Otj " / X ( twitter.com ) Monetary policy assessment of 21 March 2024 ( snb.ch ) Norges Bank Keeps Policy Rate Steady At 4.5% | Markets Insider ( businessinsider.com ) The Bank of England is preparing the ground for lower interest rates ( msn.com ) Brazil central bank cuts key rate and hints at slower easing - BNamericas Czech Republic's central bank cuts a key interest rate again to help the economy as inflation falls ( msn.com ) Japan's broader price trends moderate, complicating BOJ outlook | Reuters Euro zone business activity nearly stabilizes: PMI ( yahoo.com ) First "freeze" Russian assets, then "siphon them off": the choice of words from Brussels cannot hide the fact that the EU is breaking international law ( weltwoche.ch ) China’s New Loans to Nonbanking Institutions Hit Nine-Year High - Caixin Global Michael Pettis on X: "As China faces rising trade conflict, it is trying to speed up its accession the CPTPP, a free trade agreement among Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. https://t.co/WVb0MdpPc7 " / X ( twitter.com ) Japanese Savers Have a Quadrillion Yen Stashed Away. Here’s How Much That Is - Bloomberg That's a lot savings.. to put to work Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸From the start of March until today, $TLT saw the largest outflows since Jan'22. Why? -Soft landing= rotation from bonds to stocks -QT is likely to target only LT USTs and MBS going forward 🚫🐂Beware of Powell's dovishness: the great bond bull rally is not coming for LT USTs https://t.co/WUPROS6uqA " / X ( twitter.com ) Johannesburg Faces Unprecedented Water Crisis | TIME terrible state of affairs, good grief International Energy Agency on X: "In a new article for today's @FinancialTimes, our Executive Director @fbirol highlights the economic, industrial, strategic & technological forces driving the transition to clean energy Read why the global energy system's direction of travel is clear ⬇️ https://t.co/zgDtAv4IHB https://t.co/PQsUPnKtN9 " / X ( twitter.com ) Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is an extremely good illustration of Europe's economic suicide. A mere 3 years ago (in May 2021), Swiss company Meyer Burger opened a state-of-the-art solar factory in Freiberg, Germany in order to "revitalize the solar industry in Europe". It was the largest plant for the… https://t.co/1p2tXU57mM " / X ( twitter.com ) Australia to funnel $3bn to U.K. for AUKUS sub reactors, designs - Nikkei Asia Credit Suisse Headquarters to Become a Campus of Sorts ( finews.asia ) Barclays and Citgroup layoffs hit investment banking units ( qz.com ) Weight loss drug Wegovy gets Medicare coverage for treating heart risks ( qz.com ) Simon Harris in pole position to be Ireland’s next prime minister – POLITICO Swiss salaries: high, stable, yet not enough for many - SWI swissinfo.ch Trouble in paradise? Many in Switzerland have problems Without a doubt, CHF6,788 is a lot of cash. Indeed, Switzerland is often classified as having some of the highest salaries in the world – including External link for those at the bottom of the scale. Even so, money disappears fast. Zurich and Geneva regularly feature towards the top of “most expensive cities” rankings; the Alpine nation also tops The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index External link . Add to this tax and pension deductions, high average rents (CHF1,412 per apartment in 2022), public transport costs, and ballooning health insurance costs (CHF360 per month), and the eye-watering salaries don’t seem so high anymore.... our recent trip to Zermatt for a few days, was just insanely expensive, must admit, quite hard to think how 'a normal family of 4' these days can afford a ski holiday up there..

Spring finally! FED remains pretty tolerant!.. increased inflation and growth forecasts slightly, and keep dots in place, reflate !... risk took off, usd weakened, metals and commodities higher >>> BoE, SNB (exp signal rate cut in June), Norges (unch) and then US claims, Philly Fed and US PMI The US has $6trn in MM funds + $3trn in cash, JAPAN has near $7trn worth of CASH in JPY to put to work - big picture, there is a lot of debt, but there is also tons of cash around to be put to work!... and while Powell keeps the system awash with liquidities, the bubbly markets will continue to do what they do , FED going to be in trouble next year if inflation is not lower, commodities, crude all higher meanwhile... Bernanke (2008): QE is temporary and the Fed’s balance sheet ($2trn) will soon be lower than when we started. Powell (2024): It’s appropriate to slow the pace of QT fairly soon ($7.5trn) “One of the challenges here is while society wants to see emissions reduced, nobody wants to pay for it,” US immigration inflow of 2.5m for 2023 was significantly higher than the long-term trend of 1m .  This is a key factor behind the combination of still high non-farm payroll addition, slowing wage growth, and rising unemployment.  Slowing wage growth also leads Goldman Sachs to believe core services CPI ex-shelter can continue to come down Zimbabwe, the poster child of hyperinflation, is allowing a free fall in its currency that it’s no longer keen to defend and is instead working on a new exchange rate potentially backed by gold >>>> #XAUUSD trend higher to continue, particularly as the World Gold council found that 62% of CB's around their world want to increase their share of XAU reserves (from 45% in 2022)...and since Gold is only 5% of overall reserves (on average)...demand should last for years... 'Mr Yen' says Japan could intervene if yen falls to 155 - the market will go and test them! Intel prepares for $100 billion spending spree across four US states Saudi Arabia to Take a Huge Step into AI with A $40 Billion Investment Fund Panic mode sets in for Trump as he faces deadline for massive bond The UK government borrowed more than expected in February, but borrowing in the financial year was still on track to be its lowest for four years France March services PMI falls to 47.8.. (forecast 48.8), manufacturing PMI 45.8 (exp 47.5) - pretty dreadful set of data Goldman: “Our interpretation is that Chair Powell and a narrow majority of the Committee feel strongly about not delaying cuts for too long and are targeting the June FOMC meeting for the first cut” Read the FED message, one of the line reads differently than the others ! : - growth stable/remains above potential - unemployment levels at secular lows - Core PCE remains above mandate for years - FED is going to cut 175bps or more over next years European markets live updates: Fed reaction and BoE and SNB decisions ( cnbc.com ) The Fed - March 20, 2024: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version ( federalreserve.gov ) Fed still sees 3 rate cuts this year: 'Strong job growth is not a reason for us to be concerned about inflation' | Fortune UK borrowing higher than expected in February ( msn.com ) Saudi Arabia Set to Invest $40B in AI Under a16z Oversight ( techreport.com ) Zimbabwe Lets Currency Free-Fall While It Weighs Gold Standard ( yahoo.com ) 'Mr Yen' says Japan may intervene if yen drops to 155 ( ampproject.org ) 'Nobody wants to pay for it' | ExxonMobil and Aramco CEOs say green hydrogen is too expensive to replace fossil fuels | Hydrogen news and intelligence ( hydrogeninsight.com ) “One of the challenges here is while society wants to see emissions reduced, nobody wants to pay for it,” Woods said. “There’s a hesitancy for people to sign up for low-carbon hydrogen.” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told delegates that, in energy terms, the cost of green H2 amounted to the equivalent of $400 per barrel of oil — roughly five times the current price. Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "I'm old enough to remember when The Wall Street Journal said that gold was losing its reserve status in September 2022. Instead, what we've witnessed is a record pace of accumulation of the metal, primarily driven by central banks. https://t.co/l0SncORsaI " / X ( twitter.com ) EQT CEO warns lack of natural gas storage will trigger dramatic price swings ( worldoil.com ) Intel prepares for $100 billion spending spree across four US states | Reuters Panic mode sets in for Trump as he faces deadline for massive bond | CNN Politics Texas border enforcement law again blocked in legal whiplash | Reuters Marcel Rohner: «Credit Suisse Was One of the Most Fined Banks» ( finews.asia ) Amazon's 'Big Spring Sale' could boost revenue by billions ( qz.com ) Kering warns of slowing Gucci sales as stock falls ( qz.com ) Is Ether is a crypto security? The SEC wants to know ( qz.com )

FOMC expected to hold, focus on dop plot projections for rates and inflation, currently market pricing in a cut in July, decent risk of dop plot going for 2 cuts in 2024 (from current 3 cuts expected). BoE on hold tomorrow, markets expecting a 50% of a cut in June, and still a total of about 65bps of cuts priced in for the year MOVE index (bond vols) closed just below the magical 100 level as we await Fed. Haven't seen MOVE this low going into FOMC in a while... The Tokyo Whale has finally decided to stop buying equities. "The Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs)." >>> best part of this NIKKEI momentum gone, that all said, clearly the BoJ is in no hurry to tighten much at all...pretty hilarious moving from -0.10% to zero , when core CPI is near 2 to 2.5% (10y JGB yields fell nearly 8bps yesterday after the event..) - Thread Coinbase, MicroStrategy and Super Micro Computer - all come to market selling convertible bonds together Switzerland’s financial regulator Finma should have the power to rein in bank bonuses if the country wants to prevent future crises, its former chief executive officer said Tuesday. The comments come on the first anniversary of UBS Group AG’s takeover of Credit Suisse in an emergency deal brokered by the government. That followed years of scandals and restructuring at Credit Suisse, with its ultimate collapse raising questions about Finma’s efficacy FT: "The balance of trade in goods hit €28bn in January, its highest level since authorities started tracking data in 2002 . Last year, the eurozone recorded a trade surplus of €64bn, in contrast with the record €335bn deficit it suffered in 2022." and yet. .. EU chamber warns of ‘slow-motion train accident’ with China, says something needs to change Bank of America’s March Global Fund Manager Survey shows fund managers’ cash level of 4.4% , a slight increase from 4.2% the previous month, while allocation to equities increased 7ppt to 28% overweight, a new high since February 2022.  Bond allocation increased 1ppt to 7% overweight Crude will rise above the current consensus view of up to $90 if the Fed cuts rates in coming months, commodity veteran Jeff Currie said in his first interview since joining Carlyle. Timespreads and falling US oil and gasoline inventories also signal a tighter market >>> "Being short oil and commodities in a late-cycle expansion is like being short natural gas in a blizzard,” Jeff Currie Markets : JPY weakens fairly sharply vs basket, after that 'hike' to zero interest rates... differential too big to ignore!.. MOF may well chat its a concern, but what can they do outside verbal interventions ?..probably not a whole lot that would really work for long...tough to trade form here, though the well established JPY shorts out there have NO reason to cover....The fact that BoJ still buying JGB's says it all.. FOMC, all about the dots FOMC expectations: Could CPI and labor data still trigger rate cuts? ( yahoo.com ) Bank of America Bullishness Defies Doomsayers Ahead of the Fed - Bloomberg Perhaps Mark Cabana summed it up best this morning. The question isn't whether stocks are listening to bonds. It’s whether bonds are listening to stocks, which seem to be screaming loud and clear that the US economy is doing well and companies can thrive even with higher borrowing costs. How have households adjusted their spending and saving behaviour to cope with high inflation? ( europa.eu ) Navigating currency risk: 2 case studies on harnessing FX options for Swiss Franc stability | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) UK inflation falls to two and a half-year low of 3.4% as food pressures ease – business live ( msn.com ) EU chamber warns of ‘slow-motion train accident’ with China, says something needs to change | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 FT: "The balance of trade in goods hit €28bn in January, its highest level since authorities started tracking data in 2002. Last year, the eurozone recorded a trade surplus of €64bn, in contrast with the record €335bn deficit it suffered in 2022." https://t.co/qtzuOqeND9 " / X ( twitter.com ) Bob Elliott on X: "BoJ delivers about the most dovish hike they could have to move off negative rate policy. Ueda keeping a lot of flexibility to keep easy policy and repeating the lack of urgency to tighten fast. Thread. Yen sold off sharply on the news thru 150 and back to the recent bottom. https://t.co/CBzGiVnAJE " / X ( twitter.com ) Switzerland’s Finma Needs Power to Cut Bank Bonuses, Ex-CEO Urban Angehrn Says - Bloomberg MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR) Executive Chairman, 10% Owner Michael Saylor Sells 1,550 Shares ( yahoo.com ) and MicroStrategy sells another $604M of notes to buy 9K Bitcoin ( cointelegraph.com ) Holcim (Switzerland) Ltd. acquires Cand-Landi Group Reddit's IPO goal is tiny compared to Facebook, Twitter, Snap ( qz.com ) Shell's EV charging network will quadruple in size by 2030 ( qz.com ) Far-right AfD peppers Germany's top court with complaints, accused of blocking tactics | Reuters PP297_Elections_europeenne_Opinion_publique_Chopin_EN.pdf ( institutdelors.eu ) When is the first day of spring in 2024? What to know about the vernal equinox - CBS News EURCHF up GBPCHF 1.15+ and we are on to something big

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods: “Everyone wants to reduce emissions, but nobody wants to pay for it” , meanwhile crude demand as high as ever...Morgan Stanley revises higher Brent price forecast, higher demand and geopolitics BoJ dovish hike, RBA slightly less hawkish, US Bond market prepping for Dot Plot, with three cuts in question, May off the table, June maybe, July more likely as we speak. FOMC ''has no basis for a dovish tone'', particularly if inflation/growth show signs of pick up into summer SNB sold roughly $150 billion worth of foreign currencies in the whole of 2023 , ''to keep imported inflation down'' U.S Congress, White House agree on spending but may still miss deadline . A partial government shutdown this weekend could be brief, but Congress hasn’t left itself much time to act before funding runs out JPM's Mislav: "...equity markets could have a drawdown over the next months both because of growth disappointments, and also due to continued sticky inflation prints and higher for longer Fed; ie, we might end up with the opposite from Goldilocks" Canadian bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing with nearly 800 bankruptcy filings in January 2024 alone/Thread Citi estimates that global cross-asset volatility is near a 15-year low , feeds on itself, as its done for long while, till one day for whatever reason 'it' changes, BoJ shift might have been one of those times, nope China has accused Evergrande of committing fraud totaling $78 billion , making it the largest case of financial fraud in history, dwarfing that of Enron, WorldCom, FTX, and even surpassing Bernie Madoff's $68 billion ponzi Many hospitals in China stop newborn delivery services as birth rate drops Bitcoin crashed to $8900 on Bitmex - weird to say the least! Markets : BoJ dovish hike, after weeks of prepping! JPY weakens , RBA drops hawkish tone (both pretty close depending on how you read it all), FOMC up next - see Saxo's below, 'dot plot' focus! USDollar picks up strength vs JPY,. CHF and AUD, though again no new levels per say. Equity markets should/will struggle a little together with higher USD, if/when 10's UST were to head towards 4.50-4.60%, which is the call on a break of 4.35%+ FOMC Preview dot plot and quantitative tightening in focus | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Summary: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. A decision to initiate tapering of Quantitative Tightening is imperative and may be made as early as this month, although it is more likely to occur in May. As inflation proves persistent, markets will focus on the dot plot, likely to show only two rate cuts for 2024 versus the three cuts projected in December. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may reveal higher growth and inflation forecasts for 2024, while we expect 2025-26 to remain unchanged from December's projections. US Treasury yields are likely to adjust higher across tenors, with 2-year yields testing resistance at 4.75% and 10-year yields breaking above 4.35% for the first time since November last year. Congress reaches spending deal, but short government shutdown likely - The Washington Post Bond Traders Prep for New Dot Plot, With Three Cuts in Question - Bloomberg Swiss National Bank sold forex worth nearly $150 billion in 2023 | Reuters Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA Bitcoin Flash Crashed to $8.9K on BitMEX ( yahoo.com ) what a world Michael Pettis on X: "1/14 A director at the American Enterprise Institute is warning that protectionism has run amok in the US. Nonsense. Protectionist economies are those in which manufacturing is subsidized through direct and indirect transfers from the household sector. https://t.co/oCXLbAyJR4 " / X ( twitter.com ) Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Warns US Stocks at Risk in ‘Dollar Regime Shift’ - Bloomberg ExxonMobil makes first 2024 oil discovery in prolific Stabroek block offshore Guyana ( worldoil.com ) classic, you know why both countries are fighting over the territories.. China economic numbers boost oil's bull case – The Armchair Trader China Accuses Evergrande of $78 Billion Fraud, Worse Than Luckin and Enron - Bloomberg BlackRock and JPMorgan back $15 billion fund to rebuild Ukraine ( qz.com ) Goldman analysts weigh in on Tesla slump, highlight key EV election risk ( msn.com ) Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr resigns after EVs bet goes bad ( qz.com ) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "What is happening in Canada? Canadian bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing with nearly 800 bankruptcy filings in January 2024 alone. This comes after bankruptcy filings in 2023 jumped nearly 40% year-over-year. Currently, the number of businesses filing for insolvency is at its… https://t.co/QxhkisxOC0 " / X ( twitter.com ) Locals driven out by luxury homes in Swiss mountains - SWI swissinfo.ch Not just in St.Mo ritz Enrico Letta : « Je veux lancer un cri d'alarme sur le décrochage de l'Europe avec les Etats-Unis » | Les Echos Biden holds narrow lead over Trump in national survey | The Hill Many hospitals in China stop newborn delivery services as birth rate drops | Reuters Chinese equity showing solid signs...January contrarian trade doing the job USDJPY - better not break 152JPY or we go back to the 80's levels ! see here Japanese Yen - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News ( tradingeconomics.com ) 160...180?... anything possible - interest rate differential is still 4 to 5% depending on how you look at it...

Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable - read that again Copper trades up on the year /Saxo Thread & Oil jumps 2% on falling US inventories, drone strikes on Russian refineries , Wheat prices up etc>> entering the part of the cycle where commodities start to thrive #BCOM up etc, IF commods really rally again (as we expect ), inflation will head up again The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis, 3-month annualized change in core CPI moved up to +4.2% in February and After a record 25 consecutive months of negative real wage growth, wages have now outpaced inflation on a YoY basis for 10 straight months. This is a great sign for the American worker that hopefully continues >>> classic..now... Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday that inflation could face a bumpy return to normal after back-to-back reports showed that price pressures within the U.S. economy rebounded at the start of the year >>> not changed our view, and we remain in the 'high for longer' camp As Milton said' inflation is taxation without legislation' (..for most folks, not all) Samsung, LG, SK suspend US construction projects amid soaring costs TSLA will fall to $125 and potentially as low as $44 within the next 12 months warns Wells Fargo EURUSD implied vols (and others) are as low as they were in 2020, at which point vol exploded (Covid), now it will need a trigger again, perhaps Mr Market focuses on XAU leading USD weaker (debt spiral, usd deval etc) OR eventually focuses on a possible Trump 2nd term , in which he may withdraw support for UKR, amongst other things, and this could spell a disaster for Europe, in short-term USDJPY/BoJ is key for USD direction As er February ⁦ NFIB small business update , actual average interest rate paid on short-term loans eased to 8.7% (from about 10% 3mos ago) Great 30y UST auction last night , it stopped through by 2.1bp, showing signs of duration extension, auction benefited from higher yields recently (up 20bps in a week) "For the first time since 2021, options volume now surpass shares volume in US single stocks."/GS.....NVDA let that sink in 🙂 Markets : still loving the liquidity, big rotations on-going, miners & copper trade of the day yesterday, finally breaking up... commodities in general, even crude up.. these sectors have been massively 'hated' and left behind for a long while..BoJ,next week, JPY still looking bid (ish) in the face of higher U.S yields Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable ( msn.com ) Yellen Says US Rates ‘Unlikely’ to Return to Pre-Covid Levels - Bloomberg After years of don't worry it's transitory.. ISDA Submits Letter to US Agencies on SLR Reform – International Swaps and Derivatives Association Ole S Hansen on X: "#Copper trades up on the year with traders now focusing on the Aug high at $4.024/lb. Supported by a tightening supply outlook as Chinese smelters discuss potential production cuts in order to lift processing fees, badly hurt by competition and lack of supply https://t.co/It6w5SK5zB " / X ( twitter.com ) Oil jumps 2% on falling US inventories, drone strikes on Russian refineries ( yahoo.com ) David Sheppard on X: "Ukraine going after Russian oil refineries potentially reflects some understandable frustration with the West’s soft-pedal approach to crimping Moscow’s energy revenues But if Russian refined fuel exports fall substantially, impact on pump prices may become headache for Biden" / X ( twitter.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "Paris milling #wheat: While the old crop contract (May24) remains in a downtrend, recently hitting a four-year low at €188 before bouncing, the new crop Dec24 contract has established a potential double bottom at €204, confirmed if it manages to hold €212 support https://t.co/qIhyil1Vdn " / X ( twitter.com ) Jeff Weniger on X: "1/10 Forget Currency Wars. Enter the Pension Wars. Thread." / X ( twitter.com ) well worth a read Jamie Dimon urges Fed not to cut rates in June: 'If I were them, I would wait' ( yahoo.com ) Tesla rival BYD has reveals its latest ultra-cheap EV in China ( qz.com ) Janet Yellen warns inflation decline might not be 'smooth' | Fox Business Lisa Abramowicz on X: "The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis. Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. https://t.co/gxIUNrusBT " / X ( twitter.com ) MXN - good point ! Robin Brooks on X: "Markets are completely ignoring the looming US election and possibility of a second Trump term. There's a high likelihood that Trump will go after Mexico as a backdoor for China exports to the US. Meanwhile, this is implied volatility in Mexico's Peso. This is beyond complacent. https://t.co/RmRxoHT9K9 " / X ( twitter.com ) Samsung, LG, SK suspend US construction projects amid soaring costs - The Korea Times Tesla’s stock extends selloff as Wells Fargo joins the bear camp ( msn.com ) EV euphoria is dead. Automakers trumpet consumer choice in U.S. ( cnbc.com ) TikTok ban moves forward as House passes bill; fight shifts to Senate ( cnbc.com ) Today in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss Re Nominates Sergio Ermotti's Successor ( finews.asia ) USDJPY - little bit of a H&S there - BoJ tweak and 140 USDJPY ??? NASDAQ - great trend - we all know the levels it needs to hold for the momentum bulls XAGUSD - still $25.5/26+ required on weekly basis or even monthly will help!

Toyota, Nippon Steel agree to historic pay hikes ahead of BOJ mee ting Japanese companies boost wages in departure from 'lost decades', with the shunto spring wage negotiations mostly concluding on Wed, companies to give their unionised workers an average wage in crease of more than 4 per cent, compared with 3.6 per cent last year. That would be the biggest (welcome..!) rise since 1992 U.S Core annualised CPI on a 3mos basis rose to 4.4% (4%) while the 6mos rose to 3.8% (3.4%), Annual CPI is slightly hotter than expected - rose by 3.2% (vs 3.1% expected), and Annual CPI excluding food and energy also rose to 3.8%, despite falling below previous month’s number of 3.9%. (vs 3.7% expected) The US Inflation Rate has now been above 3% for 35 consecutive months, the longest period of high inflation since the late 1980s/early 1990s U.S Labor productivity jumps to 15-year highs! Economy chugging along, need cuts? Put in words : FITCH, on CPI ".. a sober reminder of the tendency for inflation to perpetuate itself." .. Three-month annualized core CPI "has risen to 3.8% in February, up from 3.0% last October. That is not the direction the Fed wants to see ." China drops visa requirements for Swiss citizens RRP down to $500mio from $2.5trn in mid 2023 ESG : A majority of investors that picked their ISA based on sustainability credentials actually have their cash in providers classified as ‘worst’ for their environmental impact , new research has revealed WTI Crude right around 200dma of $78 Markets : stable rates, Fed pivot or not, liquidities are still on the rise/Thread. SPX500 new all time highs, DAX joining in too. USDollar pretty quiet/soft ish, focus USDJPY next. Metals ''off highs on slightly higher inflation print'', always strange headline to read.. Japanese workers secure biggest pay rise in three decades ( ft.com ) Citadel's Ken Griffin says the Fed shouldn't cut too quickly ( cnbc.com ) Google restricts AI chatbot Gemini from answering queries on global elections ( yahoo.com ) Jurrien Timmer on X: "Fed pivot or not, liquidity is on the rise again. Overall liquidity, as defined by the Fed’s balance sheet, less reverse repos (RRP) less the Treasury’s cash balance at the Fed (TGA), has been rising since mid-2023, taking stocks with it. 🧵 https://t.co/h50R2N8WgX " / X ( twitter.com ) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Armed groups 'launch incursion' into Russia; military plane crashes with 15 on board | World News | Sky News Most 'sustainable' investors have money in banks that fund fossil fuels ( cityam.com ) Tesla Gigafactory in Germany has power restored after arson ( qz.com ) IKEA cuts prices as inflation cools and costs fall ( qz.com ) UK mortgage arrears rise 50% amid high interest rates ( yahoo.com ) China’s huge call on Aussie wine ( yahoo.com ) Cheers! China Hails Xi as Market Reformer Like Deng in Sweeping Profile - Bloomberg Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi targets Elon Musk with latest announcement - TheStreet Umsetzung des Volksentscheids: Die 13. AHV fliesst ab Januar 2026 – Gutachten beseitigt Zweifel | Tages-Anzeiger ( tagesanzeiger.ch ) China Drops Visa Requirements for Swiss Citizens ( finews.asia ) USDJPY - clear top 150-151 - JPN wages up the most in decades, BoJ coin flip for next week for markets, many hope hey don't , price action been quite mild ahead of meeting