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Global copper producers meet in Chile this week, with talks expected to focus on M&A, surging demand, and tight supply for the metal behind the green transition Fed can 'hit the mark and hold' with one more rate hike, Bostic says >>> earnings season in full swing this week, PMI data later on in the week and the usual Central Bankers interviews around the world..After the March 2023 banking crisis... JPM reported huge earnings, stock back up to pre *crisis levels.. (sure enough problems can re-emerge, but in reality a few very badly run banks went down, and no depositors lost money..as it should be really..), Consumer sentiment steady in mid-April but inflation expectations jump, University of Michigan says BlackRock's Larry Fink says there's no big recession headed for the US economy, but inflation will be 'stickier for longer' EURO Stoxx 50 index set for highest close since December 2007! "Our base case remains that a recession will start in 3Q 2023." - BofA (first Fed tightens hard, then we get an inverted yield curve, unemployment rate starts to rise (TBC) and eventually if true, then comes some kind of recession. Industrial production on YoY basis is negative / Thread BoC : Financial system has to adjust to higher interest rates, Macklem says Brexit was supposed to be good for trade. It simply isn't Apple announced a major acceleration of its work to expand recycled materials across its products, including a new 2025 target to use 100 percent recycled cobalt1 in all Apple-designed batteries Morgan Stanley’s Wilson sees Stock Rally at risk of Yields rise Bank of England considers major reform of deposit guarantee scheme African Nations could embrace BRICS currency instead of the USDollar Economist, Larry Summers warns US is getting ‘Lonely’ as other powers band together. Former Treasury chief speaks on sidelines of IMF meetings. Summers: some voices see US representing less-favorable bloc >>>> This is clearly the new risk geopolitically... The Global West needs to see/accept/understand that many in the Global South are pivoting towards the Global East, west needs to wake up before it is too late Energy crisis fuels coal comeback in Germany Markets : SPX500 dipped on higher UMich inflation expectations on Friday, but back to 4150 resistance, the overall big short out there helping keep VIX low and thus delta buying on dips. EUROstoxx50 making near all time highs USD a little higher after UMich inflation data, markets been pretty short USD for a bit, consolidation if UST yields stay firm and risk of higher USD if/when UST yields move higher again GOLD dipping from 2040usd for same reasons as above Exclusive-Fed can 'hit the mark and hold' with one more rate hike, Bostic says (msn.com) Bank of England considers major reform of deposit guarantee scheme | Financial Times (ft.com) BlackRock's Larry Fink says there's no big recession headed for the US economy, but inflation will be 'stickier for longer' (yahoo.com) Financial system has to adjust to higher interest rates, Macklem says | CP24.com Consumer sentiment steady in mid-April but inflation expectations jump, University of Michigan says - Sharecast.com Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Stock Rally at Risk of Yields Rise >>> (clearly the key, rates expectations in late 2023 and 2024, from no cut in 2023 back to 75bps cut in 2023 and a total of 150bps into 2024, that is what fuelled markets lately (mild, hard, no recession etc..and inflation expectations) Share of stocks outperforming S&P 500 is at record low: WilsonWarns tech rally could fizzle out on inflation, rising yieldsBy Sagarika Jaisinghani (Bloomberg) -- The rally in the S&P 500 has been driven by only a handful of stocks, putting the index at risk of fresh lows if bond yields rise, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — one of the most bearish voices on Wall Street. The percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 on a three-month rolling basis is the lowest on record, Wilson said. That “is the market’s way of warning us we are far from out of the woods with this bear market,” the strategist — who was ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey for correctly predicting the stock slump — wrote in a note. The biggest risk could come from a slump in the technology sector if inflation proves sticky and bond yields rise, Wilson said. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has surged 20% this year, partly as the sudden collapse of some regional US lenders sparked a rotation away from banking stocks and toward growth shares. Investors have also been betting that cooling inflation would prompt the Federal Reserve to stop hiking rates soon, but Wilson warned those expectations were premature. “If there is one thing that can throw cold water on the large mega-cap rally, it’s higher yields due to a Fed that can’t stop hiking as soon as perhaps some investors are expecting,” Wilson wrote. Ed Bradford on Twitter: "Other than NBER guys no one cares about this, but IP YoY closing in on a negative print https://t.co/jubW3hJXRP" / Twitter Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/9 "'Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar,' Lula said in an impassioned speech at the New Development Bank in Shanghai. 'Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies?'" https://t.co/ax90gEOhsk" / Twitter UK’s goods exports lowest in G7 following Brexit, study finds | Financial Times (ft.com) Antoine Bouvet on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Time for an US bank chart storm. The upshot is that phase 1 'contagion' of the US banking crisis is nearly over but phase 2 'credit crunch' is what we should be focusing on 1/" / Twitter More tick-box regulations won’t save us from a financial crisis (cityam.com) One of the biggest challenges is an over-reliance on prescriptive rules, often with little focus on the underlying risks of specific institutions. Simply requiring banks to hold more capital – without better risk management – won’t generate confidence in the markets. It creates a government backstop as a crutch to protect consumers or specific sectors, while rewarding risk takers and creating moral hazard. G7 countries question Swiss sanctions ‘loopholes’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Wie Zürich und seiner Elite die Macht abhandengekommen ist - Blick Apple will use 100 percent recycled cobalt in batteries by 2025 - Apple Energy crisis fuels coal comeback in Germany | Reuters Why Germany shut down its nuclear plants amid energy concerns (qz.com) Here are all the places taking a second look at nuclear (qz.com) Mark Nelson on Twitter: "NOBEL LAUREATES, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS CALL ON GERMAN CHANCELLOR TO SAVE NUCLEAR PLANTS In an open letter, Nobel Physics winners Klaus von Klitzing and Stephen Chu, plus dozens more scientists and economists, call on Schulz to reverse course. German press *heavily* covering this. https://t.co/wylgZYlv4y" / Twitter EUROstoxxs50 - impressive !

Algorithms prop up the market as fretful humans sit out the uncertainty >>> Quant funds have been piling into US equities in response to falling volatility-FT Week ahead : U.S retail sales, many Fed and other CB speakers (as usual), debt ceiling focus, banking 'crisis' with regionals, Chinese macro data, and the week will end with G7 headlines on friday US Debt Ceiling: Biden said talks to avert a default are moving along.... "real discussion about some changes,". Fed's Brainard called the tone "serious" and "constructive." The Treasury had just $88 billion of leeway left on May 10, down from about $110 billion a week earlier. Biden and Kevin McCarthy plan to meet on again Tuesday, a person familiar said >>> so far Mr Market didn't care about debt ceiling issues (other than 1month TBills and CDS), because ''you know it can't and won't happen'', that's what every one says, pretty much, which is in some ways what makes me a little concerned, as U.S politics never been more polarized than many of us can remember Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu locked in tight race for Turkish presidency. With more than 98 percent of the ballot boxes opened, preliminary unofficial results show President Erdogan’s share of votes at just below 50 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency Very stagflationary print from UMich survey (late Friday). The sentiment numbers came in way below expectations (which is very strange with unemployment so low..), and the inflation expectations numbers came in a bit higher than expectations (3.2% new highs though).. Powell specifically referenced this survey as key to understanding inflation expectations being well-anchored (too many cuts priced in..) Cheaper eggs are on the way Older commercial real estate out of major UK cities is struggling to attract demand-FT SocGen "estimates that without stocks tied to AI, the S&P 500 would be down 2% so far in 2023, not up almost 8%." Following the completion of its legal takeover of Credit Suisse in the coming weeks, UBS will quickly examine its options and find a solution for Credit Suisse in Switzerland by late summer, UBS Vice Chairman Lukas Gaehwiler said in Lugano on Thursday Thailand election latest: Paetongtarn sees 'smooth' Pheu Thai-Move Forward alliance Germany : Prices in wholesale trade fell by 0.5% in April 2023 YoY. The first YoY decrease since Dec 2020 was mainly driven by mineral oil products (-15.7% YoY), scrap & residual materials (-31,5 %), cereals, raw tobacco, seeds & feedstuff (-25.2%)..Peakinflation etc China’s central bank injected more long-term liquidity into the financial system for the sixth month in May Inflation was "transitory," and now their economists call it "persistently high," particularly when stripping out food and energy costs. The European Commission upgraded both inflation and growth forecasts, with no recession in sight Markets : While macro data weakens-has weakened lately, UMich on Friday - latest) , low vols pushed Algo's to pile up into equities lately (with VIX near 17 or below..it is / has been about systematic buying). NOW let's be clear, whether any human likes it or not, this IS a huge part of the market Crude prices continue to point to global recession, even after OPEC+ production cuts, however, Hedge funds/CTAs are now massively net short gasoil futures. AAPL market cap is now greater than the whole RTY (Russel). SPX500 back to/still within recent ranges ''USD snapping back'' could be the big surprise in short-term - as pointed out last week, ''EURUSD 'run out of steam' above 1.10+'' US UMich sentiment survey the worst of both worlds | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) GOLDMAN: “1Q 2023 earnings season proved to be much better than feared. .. Margins in every sector surprised to the upside .. we believe the worst of the 2023 negative earnings revision cycle is now behind us.” Druckenmiller at Sohn: "If we get a hard landing, there will be unbelievable opportunities, and I don't want to miss those opportunities by blowing my money now and having some 20-30% loss where my head is all screwed up when those opportunities present themselves." Euro-Zone Inflation Outlook Raised by EU on Surge in Core Prices - Bloomberg China’s Central Bank Extends Cash Support in May as Credit Growth Slumps - Caixin Global What went right this week? The good news you should know about - Positive News Algorithms prop up the market as fretful humans sit out the uncertainty | Financial Times (ft.com) Turkey election vote tracker: Follow live results | Elections News | Al Jazeera Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy chopper lands at Chequers - as two Russian commanders confirmed dead and China embarks on 'peace mission' | World News | Sky News California's budget deficit has ballooned to $32 billion | Fortune jeroen blokland on Twitter: "Global #earnings numbers will very likely drop. Why? Here's a classic 'connecting-the-dots' chart to explain. #China's producer price #deflation intensified in April, with the #PPI falling 3.6% from a year ago. Historically, there is a close relationship between global… https://t.co/yCB6Ohn4aT" / Twitter Rickards: "Weird Gold Trick" Could End Debt-Ceiling Showdown | ZeroHedge It’s not a fantasy. It was done twice.It was done in 1934 and it was done again in 1953 by the Eisenhower administration. It could be done again. It doesn’t require legislation Cheaper eggs are on the way (axios.com) Like any other silly 'panic' last 2 years, toilet paper, NatGas and so on, prices of eggs right back down, good! excellent news Profit expectations for riskier sectors are moving down, says Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz (cnbc.com) ‘Stranded assets’: investors reckon with obsolete offices | Financial Times (ft.com) Thailand election latest: Paetongtarn sees 'smooth' Pheu Thai-Move Forward alliance - Nikkei Asia Lukas Gaehwiler: «We Should Have a Solution for Credit Suisse in Summer» (finews.asia) What Defines Artificial Intelligence? The Complete WIRED Guide | WIRED There’s some evidence that AI can make us happier and healthier. But there’s also reason for caution Nick Tyrone on Twitter: "Jacob Rees-Mogg was the minister for Brexit Opportunities for seven months. In that time, he found no genuine opportunities and is now resorting to claiming something as ridiculous as Brexit saved Ukraine. Brexit is an empty vessel. https://t.co/0SI0bOpfh2" / Twitter

Turkey election: Can a divided opposition wrest power from Erdogan after 20 years?, If the opposition wins, they will inherit a financial mess Just one week but highest U.S initial claims since late 2021 (264K) - trending higher BoE hiked 25bps, as expected, to 4.5%, and in all probabilities, more to come. The Bank of England Corporate Bond QE programme which reached £20 billion is now nearly over, "The sales programme was expected to conclude in coming weeks". Bailey admits he was wrong on recession – with record upgrade for UK economy China : More Chinese cities offer free accommodations to lure jobseekers, ease their financial burden >>> Chinese youth unemployment 20%, China CPI, PPI way down in recent months, setting trend for RoW ?.. ECB : 'expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became slightly more negative and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased' >>> so if correct, 3year expectations at 3%, this IS important, we all agree inflation is coming down, but there is a Very decent risk it won't come down to target, thus CB's will pause but won't cut as quick as many think.... and they may actually still HIKE in short-term... this is definitely where the market will swing between soft and hard landing! ''The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor with the budget deficit widening to $1.9 trillion''.. This is occurring when the economy is still in an expansion with the Unemployment Rate at a 54-year low of 3.4%. What happens to the deficit when a recession hits? (Thread below), one of the point of Druckenmiller (he even mentioned ''at least France big spender usually, did the hard (must do) work of moving pensions from 62 to 64.. Until 1953, Swiss women who married foreigners automatically lost their citizenship Regulators should look at a short-selling ban on banks, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says >> why? it didn't work in 2008, it made things worse anyway at the time.... and that's a big moral hazard... Trump urges GOP to let catastrophic debt default happen if Dems don’t accept cuts, sounds like a great plan Donald! good grief China, India, Singapore, Turkey and UAE are all providing Russia a helping hand in evading Western oil sanctions Markets : Big Techs love 'inversion', signs of breaking up (for many HF and specs, the pain trade..). SPX500 4150-4200, could very well be challenged, if NQ continues and actually leads higher The strong continue getting stronger and the weak are getting weaker. The NASDAQ vs Russell ratio is getting very close to the post Covid mania levels Commods, crude had another 'bad' week, mind you this is good for inflation in a few months! EURO ''loosing steam 1.10+'', USD caught a little bit of a bid last 48hours, commods initially softer on weak global manufacturing, eventually metals and few USD pairs higher, not by much mind! but worth noting nonetheless. ZAR going in one direction though, down (SA supplied arms to Russia article below not helping) Rates markets beginning to think/price a Fed cut by September, the likes of UBS see a negative NFP by end of summer!... US claims the lead..! (best quality and frequency data) >>> JPMORGAN: “.. today’s jobless claims reading .. hints at potentially more abrupt slowing. If sustained for the month of May, the 3m/3m change will have surged to 17.4% — a jump that would clearly put it in the range only seen in recessions over the past half-century.” The 1-month Treasury bill yield has moved up to 5.81% - debt ceiling worries Druck : from his latest interview, worth every minute... ''when you have free money, people do stupid things. When you have free money for 11 years, people do really stupid things. So there's stuff under the hood, it's starting to emerge. Obviously the regional banks recently, But I would assume there's a lot more bodies coming'' The Dirty Five Laundering Russia's Oil | MENAFN.COM China, India, Singapore, Turkey and UAE are all providing Russia a helping hand in evading Western oil sanctions Big banks could face billions more in FDIC fees after bank collapses (msn.com) Turkey elections: How will the vote affect foreign policy? | Middle East Eye Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $1.9 trillion. This is occurring when the economy is still in an expansion with the Unemployment Rate at a 54-year low of 3.4%. What happens to the deficit when a recession hits? https://t.co/yQK7HOICa9" / Twitter ''Interest on the debt at $928 billion now exceeds Defense spending in the USA … and it is still climbing rapidly. Interest payments on govt debt will rise to $1.1 trillion next year'' JPM's Jamie Dimon warns of market panic as U.S. nears default (cnbc.com) “We have ~$600B of Office CRE.. maybe some of that will go bad. They are going to be Ok..it may take a few banks down.. that is normal stuff. That is not abnormal.” “What’s abnormal is War, Trade, Future of Democracy. I am much more concerned about that”. J Dimon May 11, 2023 More Chinese cities offer free accommodations to lure jobseekers, ease their financial burden | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) not a pretty picture Pictet Paints Picture of a Slowing China (finews.asia) ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – March 2023 (europa.eu) Electric vehicles have a dirty secret. The race is on to clean it up - Positive News From the other week-end, when you have time, it's worth watching ! Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett - YouTube brilliant the both of them! Politics UK on Twitter: "🚨 | NEW: The Speaker of the House SHOUTS at Kemi Badenoch for being rude “Who do you think you’re speaking to, SOC? It is time this government recognised that we’re ALL elected and use the correct manners” https://t.co/wPN2ePI2Iv" / Twitter ODA oda oda! "I am the defender of this house and these benches on both sides. I am not going to be spoken to by a secretary of state who is absolutely not accepting my ruling, take it with good grace and accept it." US ambassador says South Africa gave weapons, ammunition to Russia for Ukraine war | News24 The terrible fate of Swiss women who lost their nationality - SWI swissinfo.ch Until 1953, Swiss women who married foreigners automatically lost their citizenship! Trump endorses debt ceiling default (cnbc.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "Overall Brazilian equities are now at their most undervalued levels since the impeachment of the president in 2016. Additionally, these stocks are being traded at similarly low multiples as they were during the global financial crisis. Unlike US markets that remain historically… https://t.co/ckLKiLB66c" / Twitter Boris Johnson’s Friends Warned Him Not To Back ‘Intellectually Wrong’ Brexit | HuffPost UK Politics (huffingtonpost.co.uk) have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

U.S CPI 'slightly' softer/largely in line, 'the slowdown in services and shelter inflation is likely to be eye-catching enough for the Fed to stop hiking under most scenarios', 'marginal improvements noticed' (the 'whispers' were for higher, hence markets reacted positively yesterday) German govt has sold 30y debt in auction at 2.53%, most expensive 30y auction since 2013 >> "Is it restrictive? No question about it. Is it sufficiently restrictive? Not yet." Buba's Nagel: "We're getting closer to restrictive, but we're not there." The US claimed a cyber victory against a Russian malware network Alphabet gains $56 billion in market value after it unveils AI 'snapshots' for Google Search US default would make Cyclone Roller Coaster ‘look like a kiddie ride’. Yesterday the SEC’s chair Gary Gensler spoke at ISDA’s annual meeting in Chicago. The main topic was the regulator’s plans to overhaul the Treasury market, but he couldn’t resist having a pop at the debt ceiling idiocy. European commercial real estate: the cracks are starting to show-FT Italy to hold talks with China about exiting Belt and Road Initiative.Prime minister Giorgia. Meloni says ‘debate is open’ on whether to leave Xi Jinping’s foreign investment programme ChatGPT’s creators have attempted to get the system to explain itself. They found that while they had some success, they ran into some issues – including the fact that artificial intelligence may be using concepts that humans do not have named for, or understanding of Markets : Copper, commods, NatGas another kick lower and NQ loving it, maybe breaking up technically, another pain trade EURUSD 'running out of steam' 1.10+ >>> USD shorts could start to notice and be forced to reduce big USD shorts out there in markets Nasdaq/megacaps loving current rates environment (75bps of Fed cuts priced in for late in the year and much more next year). NQ may even be breaking up technically. SPX500 4150-4200 could be challenge, if NQ continues. DAX/EUstocks50 not doing much lately, after huge rally since Oct 2022 and now not too far off all time highs Mean reversion continues: sterling next? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Frederik Ducrozet on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Here's the sequential breakdown of core CPI by main components. The slowdown in services and shelter inflation is likely to be eye-catching enough for the Fed to stop hiking under most scenarios. https://t.co/tJFCXCuR97" / Twitter we are getting there! Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Debt is becoming increasingly expensive for Germany. German govt has sold 30y debt in auction at 2.53%, most expensive 30y auction since 2013. https://t.co/mTS1QKSX57" / Twitter - chart ChatGPT creators try to use artificial intelligence to explain itself – and come across major problems | The Independent European commercial real estate: the cracks are starting to show | Financial Times (ft.com) Hydrogen One offering 'a great entry price' (thearmchairtrader.com) The US claimed a cyber victory against a Russian malware network (yahoo.com) Alphabet gains $56 billion in market value after it unveils AI 'snapshots' for Google Search (yahoo.com) Europe Gas Slides As Forecasts Point to Warmer, Windier Weather | Financial Post NHS waiting list hits record 7.3 million people in England | The Independent Good grief! Italy to hold talks with China about exiting Belt and Road Initiative | Financial Times (ft.com) Imran Khan’s arrest brings Pakistan closer to the edge | The Economist Hundreds of troops line US border amid huge surge in migrant crossings before Title 42 ends | Evening Standard Sudanese refugees face hunger and hostility in neighbouring countries (telegraph.co.uk) How this Egypt resort’s diving holidays help clean up the Red Sea | The Independent have a great day Team PVM

-Pressure is growing on President Biden to bend in debt ceiling talks with Republicans, though the White House and Democrats are showing no signs of letting up from his no-negotiation stance -''The real problem facing the U.S is not the debt ceiling, the problem is the pile of debt they are accumulating, the debt problem will never be solved if Congress keep rising the debt ceiling! ''..could easely argue that rising the debt ceiling will in fact push the US in some sort of debt or usd crisis eventually... -AAPL earnings estimate lowered by analysts for Q2 and Q3, while price headed higher/Thread and chart below, if that's not some kind of weird divergence.. -U.S : Small Business Optimism has fallen to its lowest level in a decade - another 'recession' signal for many -Global copper smelting slides to two-year low in April -Latest quarterly update for Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) showed a net -22.8% of respondents reporting willingness to make consumer loans -Why ChatGPT developer OpenAI is the No. 1 company on the 2023 CNBC disruptor 50 list -Brexit causes 'problems' in rewilding Highlands, Trees for Life says >> another Brexit winner as ''vital EU funding cut off, and not replaced by the Tories'' -Glencore plans Europe’s biggest electric car battery recycling plant ECB's Schnabel sees more rate hikes until core inflation declines too and Premature for Fed to call end to rate hikes with inflation still high, Williams says Markets : -Debt ceiling : in 2011 there were a few days of 'no increase' SPX dived 15%' and yes to rally again later on on the actual rise.. SPX was 1350.. -Silver to gold ratio: why the long silver trade makes sense -SPX500 levels vs LQD divergence-gap slightly 'disturbing'. 4150-4200 still the top end of the range, all about U.S CPI and eventual guidance it will bring to Powell, recall, we have 70bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 already.. -Copper and other commods still struggling (manufacturing data softer) Warnings signs : GS's Bobby Molavi writes: "...new job openings are the lowest they’ve been since Apr 2021, with Layoffs the highest they’ve been since Dec 2020. We’re starting to see leading indicators of repricing of credit like subprime auto loans falling to around 2% of all auto loans from around 10% in 2018. We saw German industrial production fell more than expectations in March on the back of weakness in the Auto sector. Oil has had its 6th monthly loss in a row. US courts have just seen 57 ‘large’ insolvencies in Q1 for the busiest quarter since 2009". Famed investor Stan Druckenmiller sees hard landing coming | Seeking Alpha Druckenmiller Interview: 10 Key Takeaways (yahoo.com) Global copper smelting slides to two-year low in April - MINING.COM Pressure grows on Biden to bend in debt ceiling talks | The Hill, Timeline of the McCarthy-Biden debt ceiling fight (thehill.com) Peter Schiff: The US Is in a Financial Crisis Worse than ’08 | SchiffGold Why three-day weekends are great for wellbeing – and the economy - Positive News Totally agree! bring it on The most important thing Warren Buffett said Saturday, and it isn't good news for the economy (cnbc.com) Trying to find some positive news but... can only say that valuations are too high - no need to chase this 'market', stay invested in quality balance-sheet and have room to step in on a decent dip when opportunities come your/our way! ASSET MANAGEMENT | Pure Value Metrics Small Business Economics Trends | NFIB Bob Elliott on Twitter: "NFIB survey always a great read into the workings of the economy. Headline confidence number will get lots of attention, but important to know its driven by soft measures which have been pretty wrong this cycle. Hard measures still elevated and show no big slowdown post SVB. https://t.co/9l8NCNTN54" / Twitter Battles Rage Over Biden's Clean Energy Projects as the Size and Cost Jump - Mish Talk - Global Economic Trend Analysis All too often costs to folks and communities become the issue and put the breaks on 'too' populist plans (plans goes through without thinking too much about details...) Thomas Thornton on Twitter: "$AAPL great chart posted yesterday in the Hedge Fund Telemetry Bloomberg chatroom from @Seawolfcap showing AAPL earnings estimates have been lowered by analysts for Q2 and Q3 with this upside move in price raising the multiple even higher https://t.co/x4JL4hkCZ2" / Twitter Rockfall danger: Swiss village evacuated - SWI swissinfo.ch impressive pictures - rock volumes pretty insane - hope all will be well ! UK water company dividends jump to £1.4bn despite criticism over sewage outflows | Financial Times (ft.com) >>>> this is ridiculous !! awful, disgusting in fact >>> UK water companies were responsible for more than 300,000 sewage spills into British waterways last year. House prices "under greatest pressure" in London and south east as rate hikes take their toll (cityam.com) Ryanair places Boeing plane order for at least 150 of largest 737 Max (cnbc.com) that's a big oda! DeSantis signs bill that bans Chinese citizens from buying land in Florida | The Hill The Chinese don't like Florida anyway :-) Why ChatGPT maker OpenAI is the No. 1 2023 CNBC Disruptor 50 company Germany's BaFin warns of nervous time for banks, stress in property markets (cnbc.com) a little late for warnings non? Glencore plans Europe’s biggest electric car battery recycling plant | Financial Times (ft.com) great news ! Silver to gold ratio: why the long silver trade makes sense (thearmchairtrader.com)

"China overtook Germany in auto exports in 2022 and is set to eclipse Japan as the world’s biggest car exporter this year." >>> happened within 2-3years, so swift ! Goldman Sachs joins Barclays in bet against Fed cuts this year GS on SLOOS: "the details are slightly worse (e.g., in the CRE and multifamily residential categories) than the headline C&I tightening measure suggests. Uncertainty remains high regarding the timing of tightening in the current environment." Fed Goolsbee ''credit tightening is under way and recession is a possibility'' BoJ's Ueda ''if price target is met in sustainable, stable manner, BoJ will end YCC & shrink its balance-sheet'' U.S banks : as long as banks don't pay interest rates on deposits (main banks still 10-20bps only..) when MM Funds are 4.5%, CD's 5% and UST say 3%, then record outflows likely to continue..biggest risk for banks (who don't pay a reasonable interest rate) is when consumer figure they can easily move money around.. to MM funds and so on... SBB : One of Sweden’s biggest commercial landlords plans to halt payment of its dividend after suffering a ratings cut, in another sign the funding squeeze gripping Sweden’s leveraged property sector is worsening Texas may launch its own Gold-backed Digital Currency Charlie Munger: ''I don't think having a bunch of bankers trying to get rich 'leads to great things'' Australia's 30 biggest pension funds increased their investments in key coal, oil and gas producers by 50% in 2022 despite the funds' long-term commitments to net zero carbon emissions, environmental activist group Market Forces said ECB rate increases may not be finished in July, Kazaks warns (he's a known hawk) Yellen says again Treasury will run out of cash by June 1 Saudi Arabia’s $500 billion bet to build a futuristic city in the desert "The EU is reported to be considering sanctions against seven companies from China—something the US has already done but the EU has not. This may damage relations as sanctions are likely to be seen as offsetting photo ops with French President Macron" - UBS Markets : SPX500 same olde levels.. 4150-4200 tops vs 4050 area where all the moving averages are, Relative performance of the Russell 2000 (small caps) vs the S&P 500 since February. Hovering around Covid lows. SEE PICT's point about liquidities below, key ! >>> overall, risk reward for higher isn't great, valuations too high UST curves, some 70bps of cuts priced in 2023, this madness, or 200+ bps of cuts priced by early 2025 USD slightly firmer, Fed speakers today (Williams and Jefferson), U.S CPI tom What shoe is this market waiting for to drop? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Bond Vigilantes on Twitter: "Google searches for 'safe bank' and 'money market fund'. The former suggests that the banking sector deposit outflows are driven by a degree of fear, as well as higher short rates (via @MorganStanley). https://t.co/ZePJUhzvqs" / Twitter “…if rate cuts happen this year, it will either be because of the onset of a recession or a significant crisis in financial markets. The gap between the bond market, equity market and the Fed is likely to close at the expense of equities” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic "the equity market continues to expect the best of both worlds—rate cuts and durable growth. We view the likelihood of both of those outcomes playing out in concert this year as low... equities are priced for an optimistic and lower probability outcome" Morgan Stanley's Wilson KKR posts 26% drop in Q1 earnings, beating expectations (msn.com) - was always going to be a casualty from moving away from zero rates.. Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "“.. this labor market is more than just tight. It's good. It's high quality .. People try to throw cold water.. by saying.. it's all part-time jobs, or something to do with demographics, or whatever. But.. full-time employment is rocketing past the pre-crisis highs.” @TheStalwart https://t.co/hXRIr6danZ" / Twitter Charlie Munger: I don't think having a bunch of bankers trying to get rich 'leads to great things' - YouTube these 2 legends are so great, charismatic Texas May Launch Its Own Gold-backed Digital Currency | OilPrice.com Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee: 'Credit squeeze is beginning' (yahoo.com) Steve Donzé on Twitter: "We're past $1tr global central bank net liquidity surprise, gradually reverting to trend (dotted line). Crossing trend materially increases equity drawdown risks. https://t.co/YI5L4gkHP8" / Twitter Bob Elliott on Twitter: "The SLOOS ended up better than expected and in line with the picture indicated by the actual credit data I talked about this morning. Vast majority of tightening occurred *prior* to SVB. ‘Crisis’ not causing a crunch following. Here is C&I: https://t.co/HbgAfYVq2K https://t.co/VKoGr7QSSB" / Twitter Bill Gross Advises Buying T-Bills to Bet Debt-Ceiling Issues Will Be Resolved (yahoo.com) Fair enough, risk reward not huge unless you are a FI manager Japan will end yield curve control if stable 2% inflation reached, BOJ's Ueda says - MarketWatch still pretty vague, but there you go - our view remain that this will 'have' to happen sooner rather than later, particularly if Mr Market joins BARX and GS and start to think of not cut in 2023 from Fed SBB Halts Dividend Payment as Sweden Real Estate Concerns Deepen (yahoo.com) Swedish home construction is likely to plummet in the wake of falling housing prices, Nordea Bank says in a report Credit Suisse to operate under own flag after UBS takeover - SWI swissinfo.ch Apple Sells $5.25 Billion in Five-Part Dollar Bond Sale (yahoo.com) Neom is Saudi Arabia's $500 billion bet to build a futuristic city (cnbc.com) GBPCHF needs 1.15+ for anyone to get 'particularly' exited on topside - patience!

Rice production for 2023 is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades, according to Fitch Solutions, let's hope there are some big reserves out there! SNB's Jordan Joins Finma in Defending Credit Suisse AT1 Wipeout Yellen warned there are "no good options" for solving the debt limit stalemate other than Congress lifting the cap, even as Senate Republicans dug in their heels. The Treasury secretary also told ABC that Joe Biden taking unilateral action would provoke a constitutional crisis. Her comments came a day after 43 GOP senators including Mitch McConnell said they'd oppose increasing the ceiling without spending cuts "Corporate buyback announcements continue to boom this earnings season, with the S&P 500 companies announcing almost $200bn worth in the last 3 weeks, and over $300bn in the last 3 months" -DB Texas : An explosion and fire wracked a refinery in a Deer Park industrial complex jointly owned by Mexican oil company Pemex and Shell Chemicals on Friday >>> multiple train derailments, chemical plant explosions, the U.S should spend on infrastructure! Kenya President Says Africa Presidents wont be summoned like kids by World Leaders anymore The recent performance has been very concentrated. 97% of SPX YTD performance comes from 15 stock In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogan's economy U.S Banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending. Small banks account for almost 70% of all commercial real estate loans outstanding/thread Vietnam reported its highest ever temperature of 44.2C over the weekend and the Philippines cut classroom hours after the heat index reached the “danger” zone, reflecting the potentially deadly combination of heat and humidity Swiss lawmakers last week decided that speeches in Parliament can no longer be delivered in Swiss-German – the local dialect that about 65% of the nation speaks "The collapse of four US banks in the last few months with over US$500 billion in combined assets is hard to dismiss, especially in the context of a slowing economy, reined in by policy rates that have risen sharply over the last year and capped by this week’s 25bp hike." - MS Markets : Crude well off recent lows, better data reducing recession fears, and you'd hope Biden is filling the SPR! Bonds : 2y UST yields 'holding' 3.80% last week, U.S CPI next.. >>> 50bps range month-do-date in Sep SOFR, and it's only the 8th Raising rates and raising the debt ceiling, a a pretty toxic mix USD remains under the cosh really, doesn't seem to hold on to any short-term daily rallies, even AUDUSD been doing a little better (finally?), CAD did very well too, MXN continues to strengthen past below 18 area SPX500 held where it should have 4050 area, short covering in few regional banks (talks short selling ban in a market that was too short, as said late last week..) helped improve sentiment/narrative on Friday together with AAPL share buyback/earnings report Commods : seen short term lows ? together with crude ? and still softer USD.. Berkshire Hathaway: Buffett Does Not Want To Buy Occidental Petroleum (msn.com) 5 key takeaways from Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting - Kerry Sun | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com) Big sentiment shift Friday. US CPI next test on Wednesday. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) What went right this week? The good news you should know about - Positive News Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#Germany is weighing a reduced power price of 6 cents per kilowatt-hour for certain energy-intensive industries to help manufacturing-heavy econ. Measure expected to cost €25-30bn & last until 2030. Small & medium-sized firms currently pay ~27 cents/KWh. https://t.co/iY6XH44JmN https://t.co/Q0I391ecaf" / Twitter Global rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years (cnbc.com) Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending. Small banks account for almost 70% of all commercial real estate loans outstanding. Charts and data via Apollo’s Torsten Slok https://t.co/2OEbkUOUGN" / Twitter Goldman: "We expect that the lending standards measure for C&I loans in the Fed’s April Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey tightened by 15.4pt to 60.2, reflecting an increase of 33.3pt to 77.0 for small banks and a more modest increase of 10.3pt to 56.0 for large banks." SNB's Jordan Joins Finma in Defending Credit Suisse AT1 Wipeout (finews.asia) Texas officials tackle, contain industrial plant fire in Deer Park (msn.com) Kenya President Says Africa Presidents wont Be Summoned Like Kids By World Leaders Anymore - YouTube Mortgage refused 'for hosting Ukrainian refugees' - BBC News Surely not, and ''sorry you can't increase your mortgage by Xxxx because you now have a child'' Coronation events today: Prince William and Kate Middleton make unexpected visit to concert queue | The Independent Amazing concert, must admit, light/drone show was spectacular Silvergate short seller says he’s betting against Signature: ‘Binance is next’ – DL News In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogans economy - Lebanon News (lbcgroup.tv) Switzerland: Where Swiss-German is not spoken in Parliament (theswisstimes.ch) Astonished this went through tbh - Swiss lawmakers this week decided that speeches in Parliament can no longer be delivered in Swiss-German – the local dialect that about 65% of the nation speaks USD weak vs most currency pair, here is USDMXN..

AAPL earnings flashed as a ''beat'', clearly the yet again $90bn share buyback will help/matter greatly, but in reality few negative growth data on some products, falling sales and profits, relatively weak outlook too...investors are paying 27x, that is not cheap and AAPL is now Berkshire's largest holding making up 38.9% of the portfolio Money-market funds have attracted $588 billion in new funds in the past 10 weeks, compared with $500 billion after Lehman's collapse. "Fed hiking cycles always break something," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. "This time the US regional banking system." ECB's Lagarde: ''We are not pausing! We know we have more ground to cover!'' Markets price in two more 25bp rate increases >> nearly there like the FED, most likely two more hikes, around 4.0-4.25% terminal rate probably, unless inflation really much stickier than expected or banking stress really increases Electric cars running out of charge as sales forecast downgraded Switzerland’s House of Representatives this week passed a bill banning “too-big-to-fail” banks from handing out bonuses to top executives and certain managers Regional Bank ETF #KRE : been sinking like a stone, massive build up of 'shorts', Fed 'HAS' to be creative to squeeze them, if she wants to.. the iindex is near Covid lows of March 2020, not for the fainthearted ! Leader of Russia's Wagner Group threatens to withdraw his troops from Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Wednesday in row over ammunition supplies, other news confirming : Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said his fighters will pull out of the key eastern Ukraine battleground of Bakhmut on May 10, ripping a lack of support from Moscow that is dooming his troops “to a senseless death.” WSJ-Energy shares made up about 14% of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock portfolio at the end of 2022, the highest share going back to at least 2000 Next Tuesday's NFIB Small Biz survey will be important given the regional bank developments over the last few weeks. The NFIB survey, like UMich Consumer Sentiment, is more sensitive to issues like price and credit while the Consumer Confidence survey leans toward jobs PMorgan's Dimon to visit mainland China for first time in 4 years Markets : TBills madness continues in the U.S in the very short-term, 4week TBills cleared at 5.84%, some 260bps higher than 2weeks ago, these things happened during other debt ceiling issues in 2013, 2017 and prior standoffs, but those were around 40bps, not 265bps! FED outlook, the more the FED hiked, the more the market priced in cuts in the future, unless this is 2008 crisis, 200bps is madness! USDollar steadily softer, although today USDCHF found a decent bid (Wagner news?), helping EURCHF and GBPCHF with it Crude few pct off yesterday's lows too, perhaps Biden replenishing his reserves, he should! SPX500 holding just above the moving averages, 4040 kind of key area on weeklies SaxoCIO on Twitter: "FED Near-term premium: fed next 18 month- the market is on drugs > 200 bps! Unless this is 2007/08 banking crisis then it’s at least 100 bps top much. Todays non farm very likely to be hawkish. https://t.co/FpqFwGxOfV" / Twitter Warren Buffett Has Been Betting Big on Oil. It’s Time to Find Out Why Berkshire Hathaway Made This Bet. - WSJ Regional banks in US continue slide as crisis deepens (msn.com) >>> FED and Co will have to become creative! some chatters about short selling ban, but nothing firmed up - too early IMHO, as it could actually make things worse in short-term, the creativity has to be around deposit guarantees!....anyone tempted? also note.. (shorts creating issues...)...U.S. federal and state officials are assessing whether "market manipulation" caused the recent volatility in banking shares, a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday, as the White House vowed to monitor "short-selling pressures on healthy banks." Reuters reporting >>> By the end of the current crisis in the U.S regionals.. JPM could control close to 20%+ of all US deposit...pretty insane...!! Banking shares: Regulators 'increasingly attentive' to role of short-sellers in possible 2008 repeat (cityam.com) Bob Elliott on Twitter: "Regional bank 'crisis' shifting from deposit runs driving equity declines to speculators engineering equity declines to increase the risk of deposit runs. This new phase divorced from fundamentals risks creating a metastasizing crisis rewarding speculative attacks. Thread." / Twitter well worth a read - contrarian should start to notice too (...when the shorts find it too easy..and officials noticed it ...) Apple is a Chinese company. Will China really allow Apple to slink away? (macdailynews.com) Apple posts rare revenue drop but $90bn share buyback goes ahead (msn.com) Apple layoffs are a 'last resort,' CEO Tim Cook says (cnbc.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#ECB's Lagarde: “We are not Fed-dependent.” https://t.co/BuJ7tOHeSm" / Twitter what do you think looking at this chart ? Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany where factory orders fall most since pandemic as manufacturing continues to fare worse than other parts of Europe’s largest econ. March orders cratered 10.7% vs -2.3% expected. Slump was particularly pronounced in car industry. https://t.co/SUUDtKNwW2 https://t.co/9ik31s0dm3" / Twitter Electric cars running out of charge as sales forecast downgraded (cityam.com) Talking robots, urban bogs and free bikes: inside Europe’s ‘green capital’ - Positive News Swiss government wants to ban bank exec bonuses (theswisstimes.ch) Electric car demand to slow as high prices deter drivers, industry chiefs warn (msn.com) Wagner boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut - BBC News Local elections: Tories suffer big losses including commuter belt councils Hertsmere, Brentwood, Windsor and Maidenhead (cityam.com) as expected and it doesn't 'really really' mean that much, all about next year! Lithium Takeover Blitz Looms, But Rio Tinto Says Buyers Beware - Bloomberg Wishing you a lovely friday and coronation week-end! Team PVM

FED hiked 25bps as expected, highest levels in 16years, should be the last one, though it remains pretty open for June. FFR back to 2006 levels. "We don't think it's going to be a smooth process. We're going to need to stay at this for a while" --Powell, on getting down to 2% inflation, "People did talk about pausing, just not at this meeting", one of the most striking to me was "we have raised by 500bp and unemployment is still at a 50 year low" and finally '“we on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly, it will take some time. In that world, if that forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate to cut rates.” Citibank: Raised Base Lending Rate to 8.25% From 8.00%, Effective today...which probably means some of the credit card rates are nearer to 30%.. The US Treasury announced the 1st buyback scheme in almost 20years to improve market functioning Brexit ‘idiocy’ blamed for shrinking London stock market. EU departure has hurt London Stock Exchange's reputation, claims Arm founder “Kremlin UAV attack” (most) probably a false flag -propaganda / Thread below Three failed US banks had one thing in common: KPMG April ADP Payrolls +296k surpassing expectations of +150k.. No Recession on this basis >> As ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson put it, “The slowdown in pay growth gives the clearest signal of what's going on in the labor market right now,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Employers are hiring aggressively while holding pay gains in check as workers come off the sidelines. Our data also shows fewer people are switching jobs.” Carl Icahn’s fortune sank by an unprecedented 41% after Hindenburg Research accused him of using a “ponzi-like” economic structure Many grumblings about various short-selling of U.S regional banks...Sheila Bair to CFA event: “European banks are in better shape than US banks to my embarrassment.” Eli Lilly & Co.'s experimental drug for Alzheimer's slowed the progress of the disease in a final-stage trial, paving the way for the company to apply for US approval Denmark announced that it will cost some 1.5% of GDP to bring its defence up to scratch, probably low end of estimate...most of Europe will have to to the same! Markets : Next FED move is on the table, we may have seen the last hike, but it hard to cuts so soon, given Powell's risk of sticky inflation and still pretty strong employment data (ADP y'day) USD/JPY weakens, gives up all post BoJ gains (pretty much), GOLD tested 2075$ on lower UST yields AND the PacWest news after the close. EURNOK next 12! BCOM vs USD - reverse correlation - intriguing ! USDollar going south and so are commodities >>> market pricing in a bigger risk of US slowdown, recession Equity markets risk lower - systematic funds/CTA's been buying HUGE on these low vols lately, longest position is over 1year, watch out if we head lower ( #convexity etc) Crude crushed, together with other commods, higher rates increasing chance of recession WTI chart : Crude oil - 2023 Data - 1983-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) Fed Funds futures' pricing : -5.09% in June and July -4.41% by January 2024 -3.9% by April 2024 -3.2% by August 2024 -2.95% by November 2024 -2.75% by Feb 2025 Fed raises US interest rates to highest in 16 years - BBC News Rate decision May 2023 (norges-bank.no) Apple's Steve Wozniak warns A.I. could be used by 'evil people' after signing letter with Tesla's Elon Musk | Fortune A.I. enthusiasm is responsible for the bulk of the stock market’s gain this year (cnbc.com) Quarterly Refunding Statement of Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Josh Frost | U.S. Department of the Treasury Sergej Sumlenny on Twitter: "THREAD I think the “Kremlin UAV attack” is a false flag. Here is why: 1) Several videos in high quality and color appeared, from CCTV cameras. All CCTV cams around Kremlin are under full Kremlin control. Nobody may leak them without permission. The Kremlin wants us to see it. /1" / Twitter Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter: "Sheila Bair to CFA event: “European banks are in better shape than US banks to my embarrassment.” She gives credit to @ecb stress tests being more stringent and better than @federalreserve stress tests particularly calling out tests sensitive to inflation, rates being better" / Twitter Brexit 'idiocy' to blame for shrinking London stock market, Arm founder says (telegraph.co.uk) KPMG is common factor among 3 US bank failures in last 2 months; here's how - BusinessToday Warning of summer water shortages after dry winter - BBC News good grief - here we go again...have you installed a few water tankers for the garden yet ?.. Carl Icahn’s Wealth Plunges $10 Billion on Hindenburg Short-Seller Report (yahoo.com) Carl Icahn's net worth plunges $10 billion in a day | Fortune what a story Eli Lilly Drug Slows Alzheimer's Disease, Study Finds | MENAFN.COM Good news ! Another Bank On The Brink: PacWest Stock Crashes 53% As It Reportedly Weighs Sale (forbes.com) markets go from one target to the next, FED WILL have to be creative about it all or there is a long list of casualties possible there! UBS Seeks to Complete Credit Suisse Takeover by Early June (finews.asia) That's fast ! have a great day Team PVM

FOMC later on today, vols moved up a little yesterday, short-term vols mainly VIX1D etc, lets see what Powell has to say >>> after todays 25bps hike (priced in), implied rates pricing in a 40bp cut by end of the year, this is what matters : ''what happens next'', complicated picture with still sticky inflation, regional banks issues and various risk of slowdown (manufacturing + commercial real-estate risk etc), Powell best have a cunning plan, ''who's going to stop cash leaving regional banks when MMfund rates are 5% tomorrow ? '' is a question I'm often asked these days.. Yellen warns that 1st June could be the X date (much earlier than the usually expected July time - her estimate most likely conservative, aiming at putting pressure on Congress). Echoing Yellen's concerns, the CBO issued a statement saying there was "a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June." Druckenmiller, the hedge fund investor and long-time deficit hawk, said the current impasse over the debt ceiling is dwarfed by the dangers of unchecked future government spending Stock market reforms aim to revitalise City of London They (the market) didn’t wait long to go after one bank ( after FRB fallout..) .. At some point yesterday, All 143 holdings in the regional bank ETF ( #KRE ) were trading lower Markets : GOLD back up on U.S debt ceiling issue and banking sector woes CRUDE, 1month after the surprise OPEC+ output cut, we are back to pre cut levels VIX1D up almost 100% yesterday... >>> with all these very short-term indicators/options, markets can do silly things day-to-day USD remains soft going into FOMC - apart form USDJPY over the last few days, most USD pairs still struggling Implied rates currently pricing a hike of 25bps today and some 40bps cuts by end of 2023 (and more cuts in 2024... pretty extreme inversion that has supported NQ lately...) - what happens in the strip 2023/24 rates is all that matters to markets Debt ceiling: Janet Yellen warns US could run out of cash by 1 June - BBC News SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance CNBC Daily Open: The final hike? this is what most expect/priced in and hope for, thus implied lower into 2023 and 2024.. Banks cannot behave like start ups using a business model based on short term profits (cityam.com) >>> banks have to offer 'market' rates on deposit to keep deposits, but of they do their profitability will worsen big time, hence a very very tricky path for many banks Should investors take advantage of the low VIX ahead of FOMC | Saxo Group (home.saxo) (1) Bespoke on Twitter: "From today's construction spending data, infrastructure categories including water, sewage, and roads have seen a boom. Read more in tonight's Closer: https://t.co/tYNFSTLN6x https://t.co/wynTmb6tqV" / Twitter May Day in France: A flash point of unrest – POLITICO The Wave of Credit Suisse AT1 Lawsuits is Growing (finews.asia) Credit Suisse was cushioned against catastrophe, says regulator - SWI swissinfo.ch Russian spy network smuggles sensitive EU tech despite sanctions | Financial Times (ft.com) Ford Q1 earnings rebound as trucks and fleet sales drive profits | TechCrunch positive earnings, though EV part loosing money, it'0s getting very competitive out there (big investments etc) Stock market reforms aim to revitalise City of London; US regional bank shares hit again – business live (msn.com) Uber Q1 earnings: Ride-sharing giant meets expectations, bookings jump 19% year-over-year (msn.com) >>> must admit great service and much cheaper than officials cabs, rightly or wrongly this is where consumers go when times are harder ‘They can survive just fine’: Bernie Sanders says income over $1bn should be taxed at 100% | Bernie Sanders | The Guardian wait...what ???!? How conflict minerals make it into our phones (cnbc.com)

Happy May Day FED expected/priced to hike 25bps this week (what comes next is open to discussion), ECB and BoE also 25bps expected, NFP Friday and big earnings week still with last big megacap on Thursday-AAPL FRB taken over by regulators (auction was a fail..), then sold it to JPM..>>> JPMorgan to acquire First Republic’s deposits as FDIC steps in. Regulators announces deal and closure of embattled Californian bank after working through night, cost FDIC $13bn, FRB was once worth $40bn (shareholder cost), which bank is next? Researchers are scrambling to assess health and environmental impacts of SpaceX’s Starship Super Heavy test flight last week, which spread particulate matter far beyond the expected debris field Boris Johnson given £1m DONATION by former Brexit party backer - AFTER he left No. 10 Rating agency Fitch underestimates the impact of newly-approved structural reforms, including the pensions bill, said Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire after the credit rating agency announced it would downgrade France’s credit rating Brexit is killing the hospitality industry, with the number of venue closures rising sixfold in just a year, stark new data obtained exclusively by The Independent shows BRICS, as it stands, is already more relevant to the global economy than the G7. The latest IMF figures reveal that the existing five BRICS nations will contribute 32.1 percent to global growth, compared to the G7’s 29.9 percent MUNGER: “Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago .. We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centres .. There’s a lot of agony out there.” Federal Reserve regulatory chief Michael Barr on Friday acknowledged that the central bank failed to properly oversee Silicon Valley Bank before its spectacular collapse — but placed some of the blame on his Trump-appointed predecessor Lawmakers introduce bill to block AI from launching nuclear weapons, push for more human control Markets : FAANGs came to the rescue of the indexes, not a great picture underneath it though, same for small vs big banks and so on SPX500 back into the 4150-4200 resistance zone (pretty easily really), NQ and megacaps doing a lot of the heavy lifting after their earnings reports last week Build up of USD shorts has been pretty decent last few weeks, so watch out with the 'CB week' coming up - IMM dollar selling drives gross short to 11-week high (let's be clear, always has been, but it's very tricky to find a clean net 'positioning' in currencies. JPY broken down through key supports, as BoJ seems is no hurry to do anything... (will taken them 18mos to study decision was the killer for markets..) Busy macro week with CB meetings with 25bps to be delivered by Fed, ECB and BoE, all but priced in, what comes after is what matters Market pre-celebrating the Fed pivot. Is it too complacent? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) De-dollarization kicks into high gear (thecradle.co) It's a long process, very long, but short-term market loves to talk about this CNBC on Twitter: "Is a strong U.S. dollar good for "the rest of the world"? When the dollar hit record highs in September 2022, many low-income countries that rely on the currency to function got into difficulty. Here's why. (via @CNBCi) https://t.co/cPnMgm9axu" / Twitter JPMorgan to acquire First Republic’s deposits as FDIC steps in | Financial Times (ft.com) Regulators close First Republic Bank, JPMorgan named as the buyer of $330B assets and deposits, FDIC on the hook for $13B | TechCrunch Fed blames Trump-era policies, SVB leaders — and itself — for bank’s stunning collapse - POLITICO Retirement confidence in the US tanks by largest margin since the Great Recession (yahoo.com) not too surprising! '''inflation changes every/many things '' SpaceX Starship explosion spread particulate matter for miles (cnbc.com) So very ESG like !? ALASTAIR CAMPBELL on Twitter: "I know they have a lot of friends in low and high places right now and they’re all busy looking after their own. But given there is so much below the tip of the corruption iceberg we don’t yet know about I am beginning to wonder whether we might one day see this lying charlatan…" / Twitter South Africa's Eskom loses $55 million a month to corruption (qz.com) How Switzerland is Putting Its Success Model at Risk (finews.asia) France’s Le Maire hangs on to debt reduction plan amid Fitch downgrade – EURACTIV.com Revealed: The great Brexit pubs and clubs shutdown (msn.com) Chinese hackers outnumber FBI cyber staff 50 to 1, director Wray says (cnbc.com) Charlie Munger reportedly warns of trouble for the U.S. commercial property market (cnbc.com) Liz Truss contests £12,000 bill over use of Chevening country house - BBC News :-) UKrunning extra evacuation flight to rescue Britons from Sudan | Evening Standard Lawmakers introduce bill to block AI from launching nuclear weapons, push for more human control (msn.com) ... regulate it all before it's too late!..

on this day 32years ago, April 28, 1991, women in the canton of Appenzell Inner Rhodes were able to take part in the Landsgemeinde for the first time... US economy is losing steam: The US GDP grew 1.1% in Q1 2023 ann, slower than the expected 1.9% & slower than previous quarter (2.6%). The main drag came from significantly lower inventory accumulation, while private consumption remained strong A tough day for Germany, GDP unchanged in Q1, and Q4 2022 was revised lower to 0.5%, Sbut...pain Q1 GDP up 0.5%, Italy up 0.5% and Portugal up 1.6%. North Rhine Westphalia April CPI +6.8% vs +6.9% y/y prior BOJ keeps ultra-low rates, decides to conduct policy review etc..meanwhile Tokyo core CPI (which exclude fresh food prices...) rose to 3.5% in April, higher than the expected 3.2% SNB Reports Q1 profit of 29bn, rebounds from 2022 record loss Goldman raises BoE terminal rate call to 5%, UK government to U-turn on plan to scrap or revise all EU law, Natwest profits soar but customers withdraw £1bn as cost of living and tax bills bite Amazon says cloud growth slowed as customers cut costs, "...AWS revenue rose 16% to $21.4 billion in the first quarter, the slowest growth rate since Amazon began breaking out the unit’s sales." Spain's April heatwave! .. April !!!...how is it going to be in June, July ?.. insane ECB and BOE should tread carefully with rate hikes, IMF says >>> sounds like they telling them to only do 25bps! US officials reportedly coordinating rescue talks for First Republic Bank - hard to really tell! Sudan ceasefire extended Markets : U.S equity, DOW had its best day since Jan, just like that. SPX500 back to testing those resistance levels, lots of sector rotation underneath. NQ and the big megacaps etc, overall earnings looking better than many feared USDollar mixed, USDJPY higher after BoJ, USDCHF found some support 88.50 area, IF (big if) ECB only does 25bps next week, we could see top 1.1050 EURUSD in short-term Crude near range lows, ''macroeconomic concerns, prospective rake hikes and a slower-than-anticipated pick-up in Chinese demand have restricted oil price gains'' Other commods softer, wheat, corn, lumber, iron ore, copper you name it - slowdown ! but good signs for lower inflation in months ahead (hopefully!) High inflation still top concern for global economy Stocks make fresh bullish bid on earnings. BoJ to take its sweet time. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) >>> Troubled month for miners, led by iron ore producers ECB and BOE Should Tread Carefully With Rate Hikes, IMF Says - Bloomberg Reuters on Twitter: "U.S. officials lead urgent rescue talks for First Republic - sources https://t.co/OG8o3Ykrvz https://t.co/sTG9SOsQVe" / Twitter Tokyo CPI inflation beats expectations in April, signals pressure on BOJ (msn.com) Bank of Japan maintains monetary easing but plans review (yahoo.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "To note: Amazon's earnings just collapsed by ~50% YoY and the stock still trades at 115x earnings with virtually no revenue growth in real terms. https://t.co/87YGV0NlOE" / Twitter Cloud Slowdown Overshadows Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Q1 Earnings Beat (msn.com) SNB Reports First-Quarter Profit, Rebounds From 2022 Record Loss - SWI swissinfo.ch The Swiss Miracle: Money - SWI swissinfo.ch 'Big Short' Michael Burry Warned of Cash Crunch, JPMorgan Exec Agrees (businessinsider.com) BRICS set to be bigger, stronger amid push for unity - World - Chinadaily.com.cn UK government to U-turn on plan to scrap or revise all EU law | Financial Times (ft.com) one wonder why ? what's changed their mind ? Spain's April heatwave: as temperatures peak, horses hit the trough (msn.com) Gold set for monthly gain on economic woes, Fed meet eyed (cnbc.com) Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower (cnbc.com) Oil set for second weekly drop as recession fears, rates cloud outlook (cnbc.com) Natwest profits soar but customers withdraw £1bn as cost of living and tax bills bite (cityam.com) Reuters on Twitter: "UN agencies hold a briefing in Geneva on the humanitarian situation in Sudan. Hundreds have been killed in the country after a power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted on April 15 https://t.co/tuwM5UzXzA" / Twitter Sudan ceasefire extended as remaining Britons told to head to airfield 'quickly' by foreign secretary | World News | Sky News Appenzell Inner Rhodes: the last Swiss canton to give women the vote - SWI swissinfo.ch 28 april 1991 And, National voting rights for women in Switzerland were introduced in 1971, 65 years after Finland, the first country in Europe to do so, and 12 years after the men of canton Vaud were the first in Switzerland to vote in favour of women’s suffrage – for cantonal decisions. A crackdown on betting firms can stop profits from problem gamblers (cityam.com) Ban credit cards to fund accounts.. and stop firms coming up with silly advertising on every football short and TV programs.. have a wonderful weekend Team PVM