Algorithms prop up the market as fretful humans sit out the uncertainty >>> Quant funds have been piling into US equities in response to falling volatility-FT
Week ahead : U.S retail sales, many Fed and other CB speakers (as usual), debt ceiling focus, banking 'crisis' with regionals, Chinese macro data, and the week will end with G7 headlines on friday
US Debt Ceiling: Biden said talks to avert a default are moving along.... "real discussion about some changes,". Fed's Brainard called the tone "serious" and "constructive." The Treasury had just $88 billion of leeway left on May 10, down from about $110 billion a week earlier. Biden and Kevin McCarthy plan to meet on again Tuesday, a person familiar said >>> so far Mr Market didn't care about debt ceiling issues (other than 1month TBills and CDS), because ''you know it can't and won't happen'', that's what every one says, pretty much, which is in some ways what makes me a little concerned, as U.S politics never been more polarized than many of us can remember
Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu locked in tight race for Turkish presidency. With more than 98 percent of the ballot boxes opened, preliminary unofficial results show President Erdogan’s share of votes at just below 50 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency
Very stagflationary print from UMich survey (late Friday). The sentiment numbers came in way below expectations (which is very strange with unemployment so low..), and the inflation expectations numbers came in a bit higher than expectations (3.2% new highs though).. Powell specifically referenced this survey as key to understanding inflation expectations being well-anchored (too many cuts priced in..)
Cheaper eggs are on the way
Older commercial real estate out of major UK cities is struggling to attract demand-FT
SocGen "estimates that without stocks tied to AI, the S&P 500 would be down 2% so far in 2023, not up almost 8%."
Following the completion of its legal takeover of Credit Suisse in the coming weeks, UBS will quickly examine its options and find a solution for Credit Suisse in Switzerland by late summer, UBS Vice Chairman Lukas Gaehwiler said in Lugano on Thursday
Thailand election latest: Paetongtarn sees 'smooth' Pheu Thai-Move Forward alliance
Germany : Prices in wholesale trade fell by 0.5% in April 2023 YoY. The first YoY decrease since Dec 2020 was mainly driven by mineral oil products (-15.7% YoY), scrap & residual materials (-31,5 %), cereals, raw tobacco, seeds & feedstuff (-25.2%)..Peakinflation etc
China’s central bank injected more long-term liquidity into the financial system for the sixth month in May
Inflation was "transitory," and now their economists call it "persistently high," particularly when stripping out food and energy costs. The European Commission upgraded both inflation and growth forecasts, with no recession in sight
Markets :
While macro data weakens-has weakened lately, UMich on Friday - latest) , low vols pushed Algo's to pile up into equities lately (with VIX near 17 or below..it is / has been about systematic buying). NOW let's be clear, whether any human likes it or not, this IS a huge part of the market
Crude prices continue to point to global recession, even after OPEC+ production cuts, however, Hedge funds/CTAs are now massively net short gasoil futures.
AAPL market cap is now greater than the whole RTY (Russel). SPX500 back to/still within recent ranges
''USD snapping back'' could be the big surprise in short-term - as pointed out last week, ''EURUSD 'run out of steam' above 1.10+''
GOLDMAN: “1Q 2023 earnings season proved to be much better than feared. .. Margins in every sector surprised to the upside .. we believe the worst of the 2023 negative earnings revision cycle is now behind us.”
Druckenmiller at Sohn: "If we get a hard landing, there will be unbelievable opportunities, and I don't want to miss those opportunities by blowing my money now and having some 20-30% loss where my head is all screwed up when those opportunities present themselves."
Rickards: "Weird Gold Trick" Could End Debt-Ceiling Showdown | ZeroHedge It’s not a fantasy. It was done twice.It was done in 1934 and it was done again in 1953 by the Eisenhower administration. It could be done again. It doesn’t require legislation
Like any other silly 'panic' last 2 years, toilet paper, NatGas and so on, prices of eggs right back down, good! excellent news
There’s some evidence that AI can make us happier and healthier. But there’s also reason for caution