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- So we got a hawkish pause from the FED, bonds/duration sold-off as expected and eventually equity markets weakened and closed on lows on Friday night >>> if the US government shuts down for a couple of weeks, nothing dramatic, BUT it WILL increase probability of a decent slowdown in Q4, the rates market will react and price it >>> risk of AI fade, FTC antitrust case against AMZN (was flagged earlier this month), VIX dealers still massively short, have semis topped ? plenty of charts now popping up on X and in my emails : ''nasdaq100 breaking own, NVDA breaking down, semi conductors double top, etc etc etc....... bottom line markets stayed overbought for months with the magnificent 7's, they can remain oversold for a while too FED is cutting staff after more than a decade of payroll growth >>> markets currently pricing in that the FED is done (maybe another 25bps in Nov or Dec), on hold till the middle of 2024 and then about 2 cuts priced in for the rest of 2024 - seems fair! "Only thing outperforming Nasdaq YTD are Japanese banks; irony is Japanese banks are discounting higher rates, and US tech betting on lower rates." Hartnett (Buffet bet on Japanese banks helped clearly..) SPX500 : 7 of the largest market cap are up about 50% in 2023, the remaing 490+ are flat or down >>> bottom line if you buy the SPX today or the 7's, you are buying a bunch of companies that make up 34% of the index and have an average P/E ratio of about 40-50.. that's expensive The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level since June 2021 this week, down $941 billion from the peak in April 2022 Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov said that Ukraine's peace plan as well as the latest U.N. proposals to revive the Black Sea grain initiative were both "not realistic." This week's economic calendar : in focus : IFO tomorrow, US conf board consumer conf (slightly lower exp) and US new homes sales (loss of momentum likely due to rates), Wed durable goods, Thursday US GDP second revision + annual revisions, German CPI and Friday main events probably with US core PCE data, JPN CPI and Euro area HICP inflation. McCarthy’s House speakership hangs by a thread as US shutdown looms | Kevin McCarthy | The Guardian The FTC may file an antitrust lawsuit against Amazon as soon as next week (yahoo.com) AI Fantasy Fades as Wall Street Reels From Real-World Rate Jump - Bloomberg Carl Quintanilla on X: "PIMCO: “The chances of a government #shutdown are increasing – our odds had been at ~65%+ odds (i.e., more likely than not), but after the last few days, folks on the Hill are now putting the odds of a shutdown between 80-99%.” [Cantrill] (1/2)" / X (twitter.com) Charlie Bilello on X: "The Fed's balance sheet hit its lowest level since June 2021 this week, down $941 billion from the peak in April 2022. Changes in the Fed's balance sheet since 2002... https://t.co/nthHi0D4RA" / X (twitter.com) Campaign to rejoin EU gathers strength at protest march | The Independent UK ministers scrap energy efficiency taskforce after six months | Energy efficiency | The Guardian madness As planet gets warmer, ski gondola maker goes urban - The Local Semi conductors

BoJ unchanged, focus for any major change remains for Q1 2024 >>> USDJPY could very well push higher and higher and test the BoJ resolve, eventually triggering intervention again nearer to 150JPY >>> next focus is UAW strike, Debt ceiling deadline 1st October, higher for longer now broadly accepted by all, but market need digesting it !, the risk is they keep rates higher for longer and we eventually get some sort of hardish landing The UAW strike against automakers could be expanded unless there is major progress in contract negotiations by today So Switzerland stopped hiking rates and the Bank of England followed suit. What do they have in common? Private sector vulnerabilities/Thread UST 1.25% 2050, trading at 48cents, have we ever seen this ? suspect never. TLT closes at lowest price since April 11, 2011 UK says grounds to clear Microsoft's Activision deal An Australian union alliance called off strikes at Chevron's two major local liquefied natural gas projects, agreeing to resolve disputes that had threatened to disrupt around 7% of global LNG supplies Why the US banking crisis is prompting a fresh regulatory crackdown Azerbaijan says it sees amnesty for Karabakh fighters who lay down arms EV charging needs big improvements soon if the auto industry’s transition is going to work Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada must stand up for the international rules-based order after accusing Indian agents of orchestrating the murder of a Canadian Sikh leader Eurozone September flash services PMI 48.4 vs 47.7 expected Chinese EV startup Nio bets on car connectivity with new smartphone. Device allows drivers to control door locks and display searched routes Markets : In FX, USDCHF pushed through resistance on SNB hold. USD stays firm overall, watch out for USDJPY again Bonds, duration, long-end, steeper, markets repricing/repriced the higher for longer another nudge up >>> fiscal position is pretty bleak in many places, so long-end reacted, as expected, definitely more risk going forward with some sort of 'premium' repriced by funds and investors to hold duration bonds, keep an eye on credit >>> markets have to hope that UST 10's at 4.50 is enough for now ! or we will get a potentially nasty credit event Equity markets showing signs of breaking down technically, watch out Europe, huge levels around here in EUROstoxx50, DAX etc, NVDA >>> the trouble is many charts look similar to the ones below, massive ramp up in H1, topping out in Q3, what next ? - see charts below, it's all the same, which make is pretty binary and dangerous into quarter-end Crude staying firm on still strong data, US claims yesterday were lower at 201K (exp 220K), EU NatGas prices lower finally as Ozzie strikes come to and end GOLD, Silver actually holding up very well in all this.. Interest rates staying 'higher for longer' means at least through 2026 for the Fed (yahoo.com) Seems everyone is coming to our long held view/conclusion - high for longer, maybe much longer, when it's consensus it is when we should notice (plenty of time, unless something big breaks, bonds continue softer, fiscal irresponsibilities ! ) Tech IPOs get 'meh' response from Wall Street: Arm, Instacart, Klaviyo (cnbc.com) US Treasury Buyback Plan to Boost Market Resilience, Josh Frost Says - Bloomberg this will come at a good time to cushion markets in 2024.. Bank of England joins US Fed in keeping interest rates unchanged after inflation declines (qz.com) March Banking Crisis Focuses Attention on Non-Banks - IG UK Singapore is now the world's freest economy, displacing Hong Kong (cnbc.com) Alf on X: "So Switzerland stopped hiking rates and the Bank of England followed suit. What do they have in common? Private sector vulnerabilities. Switzerland ranks bad on private sector debt levels and trends, and the UK faces sizeable mortgage refinancings in 2024. Macro matters. https://t.co/jlXVXW9Vjm" / X (twitter.com) Strikes end at Chevron's Australian LNG facilities | Reuters UK says grounds to clear Microsoft's Activision deal | Reuters AI risks destabilising world, deputy PM to tell UN - BBC News Tax cuts 'virtually impossible' at present, says Jeremy Hunt - BBC News The branded staple foods costing up to 910% more than their budget counterparts | UK News | Sky News (1) Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 "History tells us a receding tide grounds all boats. Contrary to Krugman’s contention, the adage that when China sneezes, the world catches a cold, remains true." History teaches no such thing. Japan's economy represented in the early 1990s the... https://t.co/ypxcpDH3mR" / X (twitter.com) Florida nurse practitioner convicted in $200 million Medicare fraud (cnbc.com) Isn't there any controls..??..how is this even possible.. Zelenskyy makes his case at the U.S. Capitol for more war aid as Republican support softens (cnbc.com) -- Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) India-Canada row: Justin Trudeau repeats allegation against India amid row - BBC News More Assets Unveiled in Singapore’s Laundering Scandal (finews.asia) The expansion in fam offices last couple of years, went a little to swiftly New Zealand is trying to get Americans to move there—here's why (cnbc.com) Azerbaijan says it sees amnesty for Karabakh fighters who lay down arms | Reuters EV charging needs big improvements in U.S. (cnbc.com) many parts not ready and it's got expensive of late, hence some issues popping up... Chinese EV startup Nio bets on car connectivity with new smartphone - Nikkei Asia All bee colonies in Switzerland are sick, warns specialist - SWI swissinfo.ch Good grief! Qatar’s World Cup FIFA Bribe Documents Exposed - Tablet Magazine Strewth ! whishing you a super Friday and great weekend ahead Team PVM DAX EUROstoxx50 SPX500 NASDAQ NDIVIA

In 1791, Thomas Jefferson said: "To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. If we run into such debts, we (will then) be taxed in our meat and our drink, in our necessities and in our comforts, in our labor and in our amusements''...sounds familiar ? Powell: We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate. The FOMC is not decided whether it’s reached a peak or not, Powell says. Markets are pricing in 50% of another rate hike this year >>> high(er) for longer, hawkish pause, how long higher etc AND the key IS employment from here on, not so much inflation (which is sticky, known known), for now the message is: one more hike this year and less easing in 2024 German carmakers in the line of fire of possible EU-China trade war/FT NATO fractures : In U-Turn, Poland announces it will no longer arm Ukraine The Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates 3 more times warns Vanguard Sweden’s central bank hiked interest rates for the eighth consecutive time on Thursday, taking the main rate to 4%, as the country continues to battle high inflation Norway's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% on Thursday to curb inflation, as widely predicted, and, in a surprise move, said it would likely hike again in December SNB has entered "wait and see mode" it said on Thursday after a surprise decision to pause its current cycle of interest rate hikes (low inflation and strong CHF..) Markets : Equity markets breaking down technically, leaders like NVDA below 50dma etc, beware going into quarter-end, rates, usd, all about momentum, on the other side #URA doing just fine in this environment.. UST 10's 4.43% - high(er) for longer, much longer? even 10's JGB's at a huge 74bps... (its huge when it was 10 not long ago), highest since 2013, long way to go in the duration game, fiscal irresponsibility etc etc USD stays firm(er), EMGFX could come under pressure, or a lot of pressure if yields continue to move higher..and force USD higher, watch out the likes of USDCNH 7.35 area for sentiment.. (one has to like MXN, but it's probably still a pretty crowded trade out there) Euro zone bond yields rise to multiple-month high after Fed rate decision (yahoo.com) Goldman Sachs pushes its forecast for Fed rate cut to Q4 2024 | Reuters Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell on the neutral rate: "We know it by its works." "It’s certainly plausible that the neutral rate" has shifted higher in the short term, "and that’s part of the explanation for why the economy has been more resilient than expected." https://t.co/tEYykCyg0m" / X (twitter.com) Sweden's central bank raises rates to 4%, in line with expectations (cnbc.com) Swiss National Bank in wait and see mode after pausing rate hikes (yahoo.com) Oil Prices Could Hit $120 Per Barrel on Further Supply Cuts: JPMorgan (businessinsider.com) UK's new online safety law adds to crackdown on Big Tech companies (qz.com) Charles Norton on X: ".@EricBalchunas reporting on the #uranium ETFs this morning on BBG. Seems potential for AUM to hit $10 bill in the next 24 mo's. Yes, please! $URNM $URA $SPUT https://t.co/2jP1ZK0f4L" / X (twitter.com) Greg Ip on X: "1/ I get why auto workers think they deserve a raise, or fewer hours. Isn't everyone else getting that? But the reality is the opposite: pay must track productivity and American factory managers' and workers' productivity is not keeping up. My column. https://t.co/VUqXiB2x3q" / X (twitter.com) California's crypto bill: much still needs to be done (thearmchairtrader.com) German carmakers in the line of fire of possible EU-China trade war | Financial Times (ft.com) Instacart's shares briefly sink below their IPO price | Fortune similar price action for ARM.. The Remainers’ last economic argument against Brexit has crumbled (telegraph.co.uk) Radical-Liberals and People’s Party have largest 2023 campaign budgets - SWI swissinfo.ch Poland says it will no longer supply Kyiv with weapons (cnbc.com) What are the best hotels in the world? See the list of the top 50 (cnbc.com) Fab places! it's good to dream.. have u been to any of them ? Blessed to have been in two of them! How Wales became an unexpected leader in the food and drink industry - Financial Times - Partner Content by Food & Drink Wales (ft.com) Love Wales, a little Switzerland.. Investor Alex von Tobel: Lessons from Harvard ‘Happiness Lab’ (cnbc.com) NASDAQ at risk of having a proper breakdown

FOMC : "Supply-side constraints exemplified by the autoworkers’ strike & rise in oil prices will cast a hawkish shadow over the FOMC meeting that starts today. Powell is likely to embrace some version of the higher-for-longer policy that is increasingly being priced in:" Citi analysts >>>''high(er)-for-longer'' the name of the game.. BoE : markets have priced in another 25bps in this cycle, again the real key is how long is 'high-for-longer', softer UK CPI this morning, but its still 6.7%, Core CPI (ex fuel/food) at 6.2% down from 6.9% in July & below expectation of 6.8% Canada's annual inflation rate accelerated for the second month in a row in August, increasing 4 per cent as the price of gasoline surged, quick reminder inflation is far from dead, ahead of all those CB meetings.. ECB QT continues with balance sheet shrinking by another €17bn to €7,135.7bn, lowest since Mar2021 Switzerland ups economic growth forecast for the year but revises lower 2024 projection White House no longer sending top officials to Detroit for UAW strike talks this week (strange..).., Ford & GM 'temporary' layoffs Markets : Crude off a few pct on some chatters that Saudis will ease back on cuts in Q4 >>> as the likes of PIMCO and JPM talking about 'oil supply shock' coming USD remains firm, UST yields on highs going into FOMC, imho, 'higher-for-longer' has almost become a well known talked view, whether fully price is very hard to tell, beware a quarter-end bond rebalance (buy bonds - which has been mentioned-too early for facts), and equity markets are 'struggling' in the face of firmer rates - will reassess post Powell presser tonight UST 10's 4.36 almost 2007 highs - some bond specialist beginning to argue it's a little overdone going into FOMC and quarter-end Canada's inflation rate accelerates again, jumping 4 per cent in August (msn.com) Swiss Government’s New Inflation Forecast Backs Another SNB Hike - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 "Beijing has been continuously cutting China’s US debt holdings since early 2022." The author of this article is basing this rather unlikely claim on the fact that the PBoC's official holdings of US T-bills are down. https://t.co/9DszQgNF6W via @scmpnews" / X (twitter.com) Ford and GM Temporarily Lay Off Hundreds of Workers (yahoo.com) UAW strikes: White House officials not going to Detroit for auto talks (cnbc.com) Europe Must Cut Down on Its Dependence With China, Baerbock Says (yahoo.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "#ECB QT continues w/balance sheet shrank by another €17bn to €7,135.7bn, lowest since Mar2021. ECB's total assets now equal to 51.4% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 30.2%, SNB's 111.5%, or BoJ's 126.8%. Even if interest rates do not rise further, this does not mean that monetary… https://t.co/YfMlMTxeuT" / X (twitter.com) Labour need to find ‘incentive’ for EU to reopen Brexit deal, expert warns (cityam.com) It sure will become an interesting debate, but probably not until after the next election Net zero latest news: We won’t save planet by bankrupting Britain, says Braverman (telegraph.co.uk) Sweden braces for 'economic winter' as government unveils cautious budget - The Local Sounds worse over in Sweden, but signs of stagflation in many places Uber: EU rules will see us pull out of "hundreds" of European cities - CityAM Shame Google, DoD built an AI-powered microscope to help doctors spot cancer (cnbc.com) Whitest parts of England and Wales have 144% more local paths, study finds | Communities | The Guardian magic! Why so Many Buildings in Singapore Are Covered in Plants (businessinsider.com) Be back later online, have a great day Team PVM

The UAW union said that it will announce further strikes at GM, Ford and Stellantis plants if serious progress isn't made by Friday, Ford’s Canada workers threaten to join US union on strike (once it starts..) >>> “In the last four years, the price of vehicles went up 30%. Our wages went up 6%, The CEOs got 40%. There were billions of dollars in shareholder dividends. So our wages aren’t the problem,” Fain U.S : 81% of full-time workers want a 4-day work week – and they’re willing to make sacrifices to get it The World is struggling to make enough Diesel / BBG Greece is making a killing selling ships to Russia. The world’s largest ship-owning nation is profiting from the sale of aging vessels, while enabling Moscow’s sanctions evasion The US Housing Market Index moved back below 50 in September, indicating a sharp decline in homebuilder confidence. Rising mortgage rates have crushed affordability and consumer demand. 32% of builders reported cutting home prices in September, up from 25% in August German 30y bond yields at 2.84%, highest levels since 2011, markets slowly adjusting to 'high-er-for-longer' in long-term inflation expectations German banker with links to Scholz charged in €280mn tax fraud. Co-owner of private bank MM Warburg is on trial for his part in the cum-ex dividend scandal ECB policymakers want to soon start discussing how to tackle the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks, with raising reserve requirements a possible first move, six sources told Reuters RBA warns on Chinese economic contagion, soaring petrol prices. A spillover from China’s weak economy and surging petrol prices pose significant challenge to taming inflation, the RBA has cautioned The U.S. is actively looking for ways to blunt one of China’s best tools of influence: international loans Big tech is now the most crowded trade in the latest Global Fund Manager Survey by BofA - Huawei’s chip breakthrough poses new threat to Apple in China — and questions for Washington FOMC - most likely scenario is Fed on hold and leave tightening 'in play-data dependent, inflation etc'' - imho Markets : ARM up 25% on day 1, down 10% last couple of days (Berstein to underperform), NVDA (the one everybody chased) down through key supports, AAPL 175$ key area, S&P 500 lost the 50D moving average on Friday and today it lost the 20D, The Ratio of US Small Caps to US Large Caps is at its lowest level since January 2001 etc etc, lots of noise but the NASDAQ been flat for 3months WTI & Brent continue to sit comfortably above the US$90 levels, Iran now exports at least 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, more than three times as much as it did in 2019, corn closed at lowest price since December 2020, but olive oil prices exploded to a record high and now, cocoa prices are nearing a 44-year high, and sugar prices have risen to a 12-year high...strewth! Key FX Tech levels - see Saxo's update below UST 2y 5.06% - highest in 17years >>> Fed’s June 2024 meeting hit a new high for this cycle at 5.18%, crude , sticky inflation, ''high-er for longer'' Technical analysis Key Supports Resistances EURUSD GBPUSD EURGBP Dollar Index | Saxo Group (home.saxo) VIX on lows and MOVE index (bond vols) , same picture - how long does this last ? Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Bond volatility, as measured by MOVE index, has dropped to lowest in 18mths, since before 1st hike in Fed funds rate. That suggests startling calm, and also in its own right tends to make liquidity easier to come by & financial conditions more lenient, BBG's @johnauthers writes. https://t.co/Yd1VBZVPLF" / X (twitter.com) Central banks head for peak rates — but inflation battle is not over (cnbc.com) Getting there, but long way long way to go (does not mean rates go higher, but steeper is very well possible IMHO, if not likely, as fiscal worries will persist!...) UAW justifies wage demands by pointing to CEO pay raises. So how high were they? (yahoo.com) 81% of workers want a 4-day week. What they're willing to do to get it (cnbc.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 "Whatever the eventual outcome, it is clear that industrial policy and protectionism are once again respectable — on both sides of the Atlantic." Actually mercantilism has been driving trade on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific for decades. https://t.co/3lfRMnSWUj" / X (twitter.com) IBM CEO says AI will impact white-collar jobs first (cnbc.com) Huawei's chip breakthrough poses new threat to Apple in China (cnbc.com) 5 September 2023 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA and Inflation, interest rates: Chinese economic contagion, soaring petrol prices, keep RBA vigilant | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site How Biden is countering China with India, Vietnam without saying so | Fortune Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Societe Generale vision falls flat as Europe's banks falter (msn.com) German banker with links to Scholz charged in €280mn tax fraud | Financial Times (ft.com) Homebuilder sentiment goes negative for the first time in 7 months (cnbc.com) Hunter Biden sues IRS over tax information disclosures (cnbc.com) Greek Ship Sales Help Russia Evade Sanctions (foreignpolicy.com) ECB to tackle excess liquidity in next stage of inflation fight -sources (streetinsider.com) SocGen was a weak spot in the financial sector yesterday Societe Generale Shares Fall After Bank Outlines New Strategic Plan - MarketWatch The dark secrets of Switzerland’s largest gold refinery - SWI swissinfo.ch UBS Looking to Investors for More AT1 Bonds (finews.asia) link.cnbc.com/public/32746232 The data is clear: private equity returns have come largely through multiple expansion in recent years, rather than from revenue and margin growth," Bain Iran prisoner release: Five Americans released are en route to the US | CNN Politics US-Iran Relations Are Thawing. It Could Lower Oil Prices. | Barron's (barrons.com) Daring or delusional? Starmer seeks to woo Europe with talk of new Brexit deal | Keir Starmer | The Guardian 1,300 clean power projects with permission awaiting construction, say councils | Local Government Association Post Office Horizon victims offered £600,000 of compensation | Business News | Sky News Finally ! Beautiful pics Northern Lights spotted over East Midlands - BBC News Musk says Twitter, now X, is moving to monthly subscriptions (cnbc.com) No proof politicians debanked over views - watchdog - BBC News Artist Who Turned in Empty Frames Ordered to Pay Back $75,000 (businessinsider.com) Bonne journée Team PVM

FOMC, PBOC will also set 1 to 5 y rates on Wed, on Thursday we have BoE, SNB, Norway, Sweden and Turkey CB meetings, and BoJ on Friday >>> market pricing in a 50% chance of a Fed hike this year and 3 cuts in 2024, which is the key for long-term sentiment Goldman on interest rate cuts in 2024: "We see cuts as optional because our analysis suggests that most of the impact of higher interest rates is behind us, meaning that the economy does not need cuts to avoid recession" Taiwan's TSMC has told its major suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chipmaking equipment, as the world's top contract chipmaker grows increasingly nervous about customer demand, two sources familiar with the matter said FT-Companies ease off on share buybacks as rising interest rates push up costs. Growing pressure to invest and regional banking turmoil also deterred companies from purchasing their own shares WSJ-The U.S. Lost 4.1 Million Days of Work Last Month to Strikes. Even before the UAW walkout, the number of days lost to work stoppages had risen to its highest level in more than two decades, American workers are striking at a pace not seen in nearly a quarter-century >>> big shift in bargaining power back to labor >>> Sanders: "Serious discussions" should take place on four-day workwee Keir Starmer vows to seek rewrite of Brexit deal – but rules out rejoining single market, UK Housing Prices falling at the fastest rate in 14 years (good news for would be buyers!) US and China officials meet in Malta ahead of possible Biden-Xi summit. Yicai reports "dire" fiscal conditions among cash-strapped local governments, and discusses some of the things they are doing to raise revenue, including selling off assets to deal with difficulties from a shortfall in income Australia miners BHP, Fortescue race to curb iron ore dependence China's military hierarchy under spotlight after defence minister disappears The U.S Tech sector is currently trading around 25x forward earnings, up from 20 at the end of 2022 and an average of about 18 over the last 10+ years ECB's Kazimir: May need peak rates for `Winter, Spring, Summer' - Premature to place bets on first rate cuts, he hopes we've seen last hike "China is the single biggest energy trader, buying 20-26% of global coal, crude oil and liquified natural gas" Funflation' is here to stay as live events fuel economy: Bank of America Markets : Equity markets closed off their highs on Friday, U.S strikes looming too + TSMC delays >> NVDA through key levels, Adobe, AMZN, MSFT all gave up a decent 3-4% ground, it's been nearly 100days without SPX selling off more than 1.5% >>>>inflation has come down, as fast as expected, but the U.S strikes now could slow growth in the U.S, clear risk to some sort of Q4 slowdown >>> AAPL below 50 and 100dma ($174-175 area) - it matters for overall sentiment China's CSI hit lowest level YTD (property sector worries still) USD has had a strong 9 week run, rarely goes on for much longer, for whichever reason Bonds still not finding much love Overall, Oil up, bonds lower with a slight steepening in there, Fed's Clarida was hawkish still, probably 1more hike for choice and further steepness on worrying fiscal stance Macro and FX: Central banks bonanza this week | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Biden's national security adviser secretly meets China's foreign minister in bid to ease strained ties (yahoo.com) TSMC tells vendors to delay chip equipment deliveries, sources say | Reuters Billionaire investor Ray Dalio sounds the alarm on US debt and says bonds aren't a good long-term investment (yahoo.com) Americans think inflation is coming down. That could help the Fed (yahoo.com) 'Funflation' is here to stay as live events fuel economy: Bank of America (yahoo.com) Australia miners BHP, Fortescue race to curb iron ore dependence - Nikkei Asia The Kobeissi Letter on X: "According to Apollo, housing affordability just hit a new all time low. Houses now are ~30% LESS affordable than they were in 2008, the largest housing bubble in history. The median monthly house payment is about to pass $3,000 for the first time in history. All as prices are… https://t.co/SBIabYtpN9" / X (twitter.com) Companies ease off on share buybacks as rising interest rates push up costs | Financial Times (ft.com) Apple iPhone 15 launch: an inflection point for Wall Street? (thearmchairtrader.com) Apple witnesses strong demand for iPhone 15 series in China, but challenges persist amid competition from Chinese rivals - Global Times First two cargo ships arrive in Ukrainian port after Russia's exit from grain deal (qz.com) Keir Starmer vows to seek rewrite of Brexit deal - but rules out rejoining single market (inews.co.uk) Poland imposes EU ban on all Russian-registered passenger cars (qz.com) Home workers will be first to lose jobs to AI, Oxford study warns (telegraph.co.uk) China's military hierarchy under spotlight after defence minister disappears | Reuters Local Chinese Gov'ts See Fiscal Income Growth Slow in August (yicaiglobal.com) The Hits Just Keep On Coming: China Suffers Biggest FX Outflow Since 2016 Amid Sudden Surge In Capital Flight | ZeroHedge some interesting data in there As Slovakia's trust in democracy fades, its election frontrunner campaigns against aid to Ukraine | AP News Officials ‘raised concerns with Buckingham Palace’ about Boris Johnson’s conduct | Evening Standard have a great start to the week Team PVM

The ECB is set to decide whether to raise its key interest rate to a record peak in what should be its final step in the fight against inflation, or take a break as the economy deteriorates >>> 'faites vox jeux, rien de va plus!' markets had a 25bps priced in, before the data turned sour lately and expectations shifted to a 'hold', then markets more inclined towards a final hike after that HICP leak 2days ago.. + quadruple witching tomorrow for potential higher vol, UBS Strategists see more profit warnings, volatility in Europe The 1973 Oil Crisis And The Experts’ Circular Firing Squad, a very good commentary about how the ' the expert consensus' can get it all wrong.. / Forbes article below U.S CPI above on core and super core though, with quite a few segments flat or down, so something in this for all... markets had indeed expecting higher core so bond market shrugged it all off on the day.. GS: "Interesting to get this data where today where airfares drove the inflation (swinging to +4.9% from -8% in both Jun and Jul ) yet multiple airlines have come out talking about slowing bookings (y'day - AAL, UAL, JBLU traded down >4% ). " ARM: UK chip designer in $54.5bn market return Swiss authorities say they want to stop their banks laundering the cash of tax-evading tycoons, international gangsters and oligarchs CHF : Difficult conditions in important export markets such as Germany and China will weigh on the Swiss economy in the coming months, according to Swiss Life economists, who have revised their growth forecasts downwards Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sells another $27 million worth of Nvidia shares. He has now sold $70 million worth of shares over the last week >>> which is allowed! 'insider' selling sometimes does influence market sentiment overall though.. FT-‘Everything is tired here’: gloom spreads through German manufacturing. Disruptions compound longer-term structural problems including labour shortages and a lack of investment China's central bank has asked some of the country's biggest lenders to refrain from immediately squaring their FX positions in the market, and to run open positions for a while in order to alleviate downside pressure on the yuan >> in other words called ''capital controls'' Mexican lawmakers hear disputed testimony showing 'existence of alien life' ..! US govt spending increased 9% over the last year while tax receipts declined 8%, this is not something you should try at home ! "I think this meeting may go down in history as being very important for the future of civilization," Elon Musk said on the AI summit in Washington DC BoA on oil: OPEC+ cuts, Asia demand - "Brent prices could spike past $100/bbl" Markets : EURO >>> it's ECB day, half the pundits thing a hike, the other half does not, market has priced in a hawkish hike already, a 'sustained' rally in EURO after ECB looks difficult, and a move towards 1.0500 area more likely over next few weeks. USDCNH a little softer on PBOC controls, CABLE 1.2450 key med term support, AUDUSD up a little overnight on decent jod data, EURCHF lost downside momentum ? (lets see after ECB meeting) UST's not a whole lot diff, but 10's hit 2.32 or so on the CPI headline, again higher CPI was expected and priced...PPI next up today, at the end of the day core and super core CPI was higher, some will argue accelerating again.. Equity markets : if I had to pick a side, I would be 'cautious' into quarter-end, as we know though ODTE daily options can take us anywhere for the next 2-3pct on SPX or NQ WTI near $90 staying firm(er), unless something dramatic changes, looks to be heading higher towards $100 Cocoa hits highest closing price in 44 years! Guess no Heissi Schoki this winter ! The markets are dealing with higher interest rates (mortgages, credit cards and so on), higher gas prices, diesel, higher lending standards basically, key now is 'employment'^, which could derail this relatively positive market sentiment - goes both ways, but quarter-end usually bring decent volatility.. The 1973 Oil Crisis And The Experts’ Circular Firing Squad (forbes.com) Finally, self-reflection seems to rarely leave the therapist’s office. Communist regimes were famous for ‘self-criticism’ events, where those who disagreed with the Party line were made to acknowledge and apologize for their deviant thinking. The opposite is often true in the West, where analysis of failure is criticized as blame-seeking. Few like to dwell on past mistakes and most are reluctant to criticize their friends, colleagues, and/or organizations. The result is a borad failure to learn from mistakes, as M.I.T.’s Steve VanEvera pointed out two decades ago. UBS Strategists See More Profit Warnings, Volatility in Europe By Michael Msika (Bloomberg) -- UBS strategists expect European stocks to break out of their recent range to drop about 10% by the end of the year, as the risk of profit warnings for companies in the region is rising. “The 450-470 range may not last much longer” for the Stoxx 600, strategists Gerry Fowler and Sutanya Chedda write, seeing the benchmark ending the year at 410 index points — implying about 10% downside UBS analysis indicates weakening new orders and backlogs among European firms, raising the risk of profit warnings. More downside in earnings trends should also raise volatility, they say Bloomberg on X: "Tech tycoons with a combined net worth of roughly $550 billion gathered in the same room Wednesday for a Senate forum on the future and regulation of AI https://t.co/otlPQ1bPpm https://t.co/NFZq41FJM1" / X (twitter.com) Obscene power these guys have, it probably was just a fund raising exercise for politicos!! They have become So large over the last 20y, thanks to partly zero rates.. that it is hard to think they get told what to do or not to do by any politicians... The U.S vs Google will be interesting for that reason but it'll go on for months. The EU is fighting whether we like it or not and getting some results (mostly fines!) European markets live updates: ECB rate decision, stocks and data (cnbc.com) Charlie Bilello on X: "US government spending increased 9% over the last year while tax receipts declined 8%. Don't try this at home... Video: https://t.co/qmV7tpV0P5 https://t.co/JcAM89NeyF" / X (twitter.com) Liz Ann Sonders on X: "August CPI core services less housing (“super core”) confirming a reacceleration with +0.4% month/month increase (up from +0.2% in prior month) https://t.co/mOccncJsZn" / X (twitter.com) Switzerland To Act Against Dirty Cash? - The Globalist >>> ''But a heavy dose of skepticism is needed''.. indeed Outlook weakens for Swiss economy - SWI swissinfo.ch super strong CHF getting painful ‘Everything is tired here’: gloom spreads through German manufacturing | Financial Times (ft.com) 'Do not bet': China's central bank PBOC warns against yuan speculation (cnbc.com) That's as close as it gets to capital controls.. UBS Clears Out of Credit Suisse Tower in London (finews.asia) That was quick! ... no messing about there that's for sure Arm: UK chip designer in $54.5bn market return - BBC News EU chief calls for more engagement with Africa | Reuters China been there for a decade or more... so has Russia.. better late than never ! Taiwan slams Elon Musk, says it's 'not for sale' nor part of China (cnbc.com) Lidl swings to loss of £76m as fight to keep prices low offset by surging costs (cityam.com) Mexican lawmakers hear disputed testimony showing 'existence of alien life' | ITV News OH ! EURUSD - all about Christine this afternoon, lets see overall USD should stay firm(er), CABLE 1.2450 area key, on the other side PBOC would seem to have topped & controlled USDCNH

Google began a marathon battle in a federal court on Tuesday to fight accusations from the US government that it acted unlawfully to become the world's preeminent search engine, this will go on for a while.. McCarthy gambles on Biden impeachment probe as shutdown looms >>> politics at its worse, bringing media focus on to us, so that we all forget about Trump and the real issues on macro side, inflation, slow growth, debt etc, Trump being impeached twice.. European Central Bank is set for hawkish pause as the economy turns south California fast food workers to get $20 minimum wage under new deal between labor and the industry With UAW strike looming, Biden must choose between his union allies and US economy >>> The UAW is demanding a 46% pay hike over four years, a 32-hour work week (for full pay), the end of a tiered pay system for newer workers, as well as the return of pensions and retiree health care. It’s a big ask, and the union doesn’t seem interested in giving in on any of its demands...when it starts at one end it'll spread everywhere, everyone will want a big pay increase ! Singapore Billion Dollar money laundering case exposes gaps in defenses and Singapore says laundering probe wasn’t opened on China’s request.. really?.. PBOC to tighten scrutiny on bulk dollar purchases of $50 million and above >>> biggest economy in the world ?...something's very wrong out there if they have to do it....(cap controls basically, lots of the big money already left long time ago towards Sing- which now has its own issues..) The Chinese property sector has emerged as the biggest threat to the stability of the global economy, fuelling a “dramatic shift” out of emerging market stocks and into the US, according to a closely watched investor survey Sen. Joe Manchin: Government debt is alarming and our responsibility is to get financial house in order >> how ? cut spending or raise taxes, or both ? not very likely from any side going into an election year, so inflate your way out of trouble! Oil's rally is making some analysts worried. They've seen this movie before and it can be highly disruptive, from pushing Fed policy tighter to limiting discretionary spending. “OPEC has to consider the effect on the macro market.” “I think the question is not only should Elon Musk have this much power, but how come he got this much power?” Isaacson EC Pres. von der Leyen: Global markets are flooded by cheaper Chinese electric cars “We pursue a zero-tolerance strategy towards black money," declared Swiss Bankers Association CEO Roman Studer Lithium : $1.5 Trillion Dollars Worth Of 'White Gold' Found In Supervolcano On Nevada-Oregon Border U.S judge denies FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's request to be realesed from jail pending trial >>> note : ''poor Wifi is not a valid reason for early release' Markets : WTI crude's 50dma crossing above the 200dma, which is pretty rare and bullish momentum The percentage of NASDAQ stocks trading above their respective 200dma is 33% (only..? usual conclusion about breath, magnificent 7's etc). NVDA which everyone follows, dipped below 50dma for 3rd straight month >>> Investors (ETF's..) are hiding out in fewer and fewer names Equity market grinding lower, 10's UST 4.30 again, crude pushing infl exp higher, stagflation signs, debt etc USDollar firm(er) although USDCNH off highs, not by much, GBP takes another leg lower (UK growth down 0.5% in July - to be probably revised once strike finish..), CABLE through 1.2450 area signals more downside to come U.S CPI up next (core expected to drift down from 4.7 to 4.3%) and ECB tom (hawkish pause) European Central Bank is set for hawkish pause as the economy turns south (msn.com) leaked yesterday McCarthy gambles on Biden impeachment probe as shutdown looms - POLITICO White House blasts Biden impeachment inquiry: ‘Extreme politics at its worst’ | The Hill When will Japan end negative rates? Early-2024 scenario emerges - Nikkei Asia Apple event recap: iPhone 15, new Apple watch and updated AirPods (cnbc.com) a little bit smaller, a little bit more powerful, better pictures, new gimmics, for the 20th time Ancient supervolcano believed to contain a world-changing treasure trove (msn.com) CNBC on X: "What does Chile’s state-led lithium policy mean for the future of the EV industry? Watch the full video: https://t.co/z16BvnADDs https://t.co/9izgWb0WYa" / X (twitter.com) Singapore $1.8 Billion Money Laundering Case Exposes Gaps in Defense - Bloomberg and Singapore Says S$1.8B Money Laundering Probe Wasn’t Opened on China Request - Bloomberg >>> Can Singapore hold on to its reputation as Asia’s ‘safe haven’? | Financial Times (ft.com) maybe not ! Chinese property woes trigger ‘dramatic shift’ into US stocks | Financial Times PBOC to tighten scrutiny on bulk dollar purchases of $50 million and above - report | Forexlive Ole S Hansen on X: "So much for the stable price narrative: Saudi Arabia may require prices of almost $100 a barrel to cover government spending as well as the ambitious projects ofCrown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, estimates from Bloomberg Economics indicate. The kingdom has spent considerable sums…" / X (twitter.com) California fast food workers to get $20 minimum wage under new deal between labor and the industry | The Independent US takes on Google in landmark antitrust trial (yahoo.com) Sen. Joe Manchin: Government debt is alarming and our responsibility is to get financial house in order (cnbc.com) Elon Musk biographer moves to 'clarify' details on Ukraine, Starlink (cnbc.com) Libya floods: Desperate search for survivors as more than 5,000 feared dead | Evening Standard shocking Swiss Bankers Association chief rejects US criticism - SWI swissinfo.ch CABLE

European gasoil (aka, diesel) prices surge again above the $1,000 per metric tone threshold (from 600$ early in 2023) Exploring the four critical user segments of the fast-growing battery sector German nuclear industry vs windturbine - fun fact below Tory MP Says Electric Cars Could Cause "Blackouts" Without More Nuclear Power Gas markets are becoming ‘extremely difficult’ to predict. It’s a big problem for Europe this winter Apple is set to announce new iPhone models today Switzerland, will be down to the folk : The match between nuclear and solar can begin. Switzerland hasn't had landfills since 2000 – all municipal waste is either recycled or incinerated 50% of the waste is recycled, and the other 50% is incinerated to produce electricity «The $29 billion profit is not a gift but the capital needed to integrate and support the $500 billion of CS assets on UBS's balance sheet,» commented Sergio Ermotti in a video interview with Swiss state broadcaster «RSI» JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he wouldn't be 'a big buyer of a bank' and sounds the alarm on the economy, ''we've been 'spending like drunken sailors,' and that's a big risk to the economy'' UK unemployment rises to 4.3% as jobs market cools, but real wages are growing again, signs of stagflation in UK U.S GDP Q3 nowcasts: Atlanta Fed: 5.6% New York Fed: 2.2% St. Louis Fed: -0.25% - as clear as mud ! China set to overtake Japan as world’s biggest car exporter ECB preview: a hawkish pause will satisfy hawks and doves/Saxo Tesla stock soars 10% after Morgan Stanley says Dojo supercomputer could add $500 billion to its market cap Markets : -Central banks meeting coming up, with energy/commodities/crude higher/diesel prices in EU, all could (will) create a renewed 'inflationary' risk and this a concern BTC formed a 'bearish cross', last time this happened in late 2021, price went down 3-Year Treasury hits highest auction yield in 16 years, 10's, 30's coming up Japan 20y yields rose to 1.47%, highest since mid 2014, JGB's long-end dragging RoW down/yields up >>> so not much happening on JPY, although IMHO I would continue to look for opportunities to sell CRPSSJPY's on rallies (risk off and risk of BoJ intervention again) Equity markets going to have to deal with higher yields, US debt ceiling drama, valuations going into quarter-end, not a bad time for a hedging trade USD remains firm ish, GBP does not like signs of stagflation (no-one does), CHF still the super strong currency, hard to see what can change there, still too hard for specs to fight it Heading into Triple Witching week (which only happens four times a year), the market has been struggling in a neutral position as it dipped into negative gamma territory for the second time this year. What we learned from the recent stretch of negative gamma in August is that context of structure and flow have become proportionately more important. This is partially because 0DTE flows have been supplementing the diminished liquidity from net negative market gamma >>> you saw what happened in Aug, first down, then UP, 'negative gamma chasing the moves', makes it more volatile on daily basis once you break up or down/momentum etc.... Have we reached peak pessimism on China? | Financial Times (ft.com) Maybe - whether there are good reasons to long the market is a different story, contrarians will be having a serious think..FT seems to think so this morning.. China attracts record ETF flows even as US and Europeans pull out China attracts record ETF flows even as US and Europeans pull out | Financial Times (ft.com) China set to overtake Japan as world’s biggest car exporter | Financial Times (ft.com) it's not all good though China's Economy Is Likely Headed for a Full-Blown Financial Crisis (businessinsider.com) ECB preview a hawkish pause will satisfy hawks and doves | Saxo Group (home.saxo) JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he wouldn't be 'a big buyer of a bank' and sounds the alarm on the economy (yahoo.com) Fun fact: -In 2009 there were about 35.000 people employed in the nuclear industry in Germany, which at that time produced 135 TWh of electricity -In 2016 there were 160.000 people employed in the German wind-turbine industry which produced a total of 80 TWh of electricity Russia energy: Europe faces prospect of higher gas prices this winter (cnbc.com) Tory MP Warns Electric Cars Could Cause "Blackouts" Without More Nuclear Power (politicshome.com) Sergio Ermotti: «The $29 Billion Profit is Not a Gift» (finews.asia) Adam Jonas of MS out with a high profile upgrade: (crickey!) 1. Tesla is eyed as both a tech and an auto company, with a growing emphasis on software and services for revenue generation. 2. The development of Tesla's Dojo supercomputing effort could potentially replicate AWS's contribution to Amazon's total EBIT. 3. Tesla's full self-driving system version 12 is anticipated to release OTA by the end of the year, marking a notable progression in its tech development. 4. Tesla's AI day in early 2024 is a key event to watch for insights into its tech advancements and future strategies. MS sees that Dojo can add up to $500bn to Tesla's enterprise value. This is their top pick! A $400 Tesla share price would mean that Tesla is well back into the "trillion dollar" market cap club, even surpassing NVDA (assuming zero growth for the AI giant that is). From the "rich list" perspective, it would make Musk close to 2x richer than the 2nd person on the list, and almost half-way to becoming a trillionaire. In terms of the beef with Zuck, he is tapping him out in terms of market cap and Anakonda choking him on the rich list. One can only assume that this MoMo leads to a KO in the Colosseum octagon when the real fight eventually happens. Apple is a Chinese company | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> With Apple stock near an all-time high, it’s worth asking how it got there — and how long that can last. The world’s most valuable company makes great products, but it may turn out that the biggest driver of its share price has been the close relationship CEO Tim Cook has cultivated with China. Instacart aiming for valuation of $8.6 billion to $9.3 billion in IPO, reports say (msn.com) >>> was valued at $40bn at their last funding round in 2021 Arm’s IPO Orders Are Already Oversubscribed by 10 Times (yahoo.com) Le peuple aura le dernier mot: Le match entre nucléaire et solaire peut débuter | 24 heures The four critical user segments of the fast-growing battery sector (thearmchairtrader.com) Pensions: Cost of triple lock to soar by further £2bn as wage growth ticks up - CityAM UK unemployment rises to 4.3% as jobs market cools, but real wages are growing again – business live (msn.com) a hint of stagflation there ! Exclusive: Ukraine could get long-range missiles armed with US cluster bombs | Reuters North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrives in Russia before an expected meeting with Putin | AP News EURJPY here - USDJPY and other crosses - similar picture, GBPJPY etc - EURJPY needs to trade below 155 area to really challenge JPY shorts..

Ueda first interview since becoming BoJ Governor : 'ending negative interest rates ‘ with guidance how, pretty explicit, not just talks anymore, 10y JGB yields decade high around 71bps..>>> The BoJ bought time for other CB's to curb inflation without shocks, Ueda may well have signalled that easy extra time is over India forges compromise among divided world powers at the G20 summit in a diplomatic win for Modi China blindsided by Historic Challenge to Belt and Road Project at G20 China's official gold reserves rose to 69.62 million ounces at the end of August, up from 68.69 million ounces a month earlier, marking the tenth consecutive month of incline Fed speakers : Goolsbee 'overall inflation is above where they want it and there are risks', Logan 'appropriate to skit int rate in Sep, skipping does to imply stopping hikes', Williams 'policy in a good place and data dependent' and finally Bostic 'still plenty of work to do to get inflation back to 2%' >>> pretty tough trade off, but overall Sep was never in play, all about Nov Fed meeting and data dependent.. Saudi Arabia has sold more than 40% of its U.S. Treasury holdings since 2020 and its total position has fallen to the lowest level since 2016. The U.S has $7.5trn of debt maturing over the next 12months, debt that was issued near Zero, around 4.5% now, it till add 300bn$ per year in interest payments OPEC+ pushing for $100 oil is a new headache for the U.S admin, rising energy prices going into an election year would not be welcome for Biden, particularly since he used almost all of the SPR reserves.. A strike against GM., Ford and Stellantis of just 10 days would reduce the nation's GDP by $5.6 billion, Crunch time for Biden and US economy as auto industry strike looms The debt-to-income ratio for all homebuyers in the US just hit 40% for the first time in history, during the 2008 financial crisis, this ratio peaked at just under 40% GS : The economic cost of obesity is expected to soar to $4 trillion by 2035. Weight loss drugs like Ozempic could change that "Companies spent much time on AI during earnings calls/analyst days, and now it's time to start putting up results. Anecdotally, the experience of these products has underwhelmed users, and the novelty could wear off quickly" - JPM trading desk Markets : A lot of economic data this week : UK data, German ZES, 10y UST auction tomorrow, with U.S CPI focus on Wed, 30yUST auction, ECB rate decision, U.S PPI and retail sales on Thursday, AUD PMI, China data and U.S Ind prod on Friday BoJ's Ueda taking steam out of JPY shorts, no real drama unless/until USDJPY trades below 145 for potential turnaround (chart below), CROSSJPY's a little softer in tandem, nothing dramatic, yet anyway. Helping USDCNH, which is well off 7.36 highs on Friday Equity markets firmer overall, ahead of pretty key macro week Crude TWI firmer, looks to be slowly heading towards $90-100 This week's economic calendar : Economic Calendar (tradingeconomics.com) Macro and FX: King Dollar, pressures on China, and will ECB hike? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) India forges compromise among divided world powers at the G20 summit in a diplomatic win for Modi (qz.com) G20 India: Modi Vs Xi, Who Won and Lost, Top Things From Leaders' Summit - Bloomberg African Union made permanent member of G20 at Delhi summit | G20 | The Guardian Bank of Japan Could End Negative Interest Rate Policy; Ueda Tells Yomiuri Shimbun He’s Watching Wages, Prices - The Japan News China's gold reserves rise in August - Chinadaily.com.cn Summing it up pretty well, JPM's tech trader, Ron Adler: "The AI hype continues to wane. Companies spent much time on AI during earnings calls/analyst days, and now it's time to start putting up results. Anecdotally, the experience of these products has underwhelmed users, and the novelty could wear off quickly. Yes, there's a "cool" factor and real-world use cases, but aside from executives in leather jackets, it's unclear how most will monetize and implement. That will take place in the next 12 months, but investors are already growing a bit anxious." AndreasStenoLarsen on X: "Is the US budget deficit out of control? The IRA could prove to make 5-10x as big a whole in US finances than anticipated. Our full story here -> https://t.co/Px4y0wD7Xv https://t.co/vrJ9DkqRRJ" / X (twitter.com) SNB foreign exchange reserves fall further - SWI swissinfo.ch Why the U.S. is struggling to modernize its power grid (cnbc.com) Crunch time for Biden and US economy as auto industry strike looms | Financial Times (ft.com) The U.S. has spent over a trillion dollars fighting war on drugs (cnbc.com) Obesity's Economic Cost Is Expected to Soar to $4 Trillion by 2035 (businessinsider.com) Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Sells $42 Million In Shares: What Investors Should Know - NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) - Benzinga BMW, Mercedes, BYD and Porsche: Cars on display at IAA motor show (cnbc.com) Laura Kuenssberg: Inside the high-stakes soap opera that led to political chaos - BBC News USDJPY - would suggest a close below 145 is needed for decent unwinding of the JPY shorts/carry trade - Very similar picture in the CROSSJPY's

Biden to use G20 summit and Vietnam visit to highlight US as trustworthy alternative to China. President Joe Biden hopes to demonstrate at the upcoming Group of 20 summit in India and a visit to Vietnam that the United States and like-minded allies can be more trustworthy partners than China on economic and security issues UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak singles out China as hindering G-20 agreement China’s top chipmaker may be in hot water as US lawmakers call for further sanctions after Huawei ‘breakthrough’ followed by a new 'to be confirmed' report that China is going to extend ban of IPhone products to local governments.... welcome to G20 ! AAPL looking like the old IBM ? no matter what anyone thinks, AAPL is so correlated to and such a big part of SPX500 - it matters Amazon lawsuit from FTC expected as soon as this month U.S Credit card and car loan defaults hit 10-year high as inflation squeezes families The great Chinese flow reversal-FT/Thread Walmart essentially lowered the starting wage of some starting salaries SPR - WTI holds near 10-month highs ss Total US Crude stock hit 1985 lows Brazil is the world's agricultural superpower. The August 2023 trade surplus dwarfs anything Brazil saw in the same month in previous years/RobinBrooks-Thread Fed's Logan: can skip Sept rate hike, but 'there is work left to do' (Sep was never in play for markets, Nov meeting has had solid consistent procing for months). Fed's Williams was a little less dovsih yesterday on BBG interview, Goolsbee talked 'high for longer', how long is necessary European gas prices jump as workers strike at Chevron LNG plants The foreign exchange reserves held by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have dropped further: they stood at CHF694 billion ($780 billion) at the end of August, CHF3.7 billion less than in July, when they had fallen by CHF27.1 billion Elon Musk blocked Ukraine's access to Starlink near Crimea after speaking with Russian officials, biographer says (big if true, big IF) Markets : USDCNH breaking higher >>> even local newspaper accepting the CNH fate '' The Yuan may not see any major rebound against the dollar in the short term, and could even experience “intermittent depreciation”, as the dollar index is likely to stay strong, according to a front-page commentary in the Securities Times Friday EUR STOXX 50 - chart below - best hold around here or else, DAX similar, other major markets in 'peak mode' , market is long, and there are many issues to deal with in September (AMZN, Big techs, AAPL, China, Crude, debt ceiling and so on), 'time for a hedging trade'.. USD overall stays firm, CROSSJPY's no doing much, if we were to get a few days of weakness is risk with lower yields, they should have a reaction lower Rates rangebound, plenty of rates around the world in 'peak mode', while the U.S has remained pretty strong, U.S rates though 'peaked' last few days below Aug highs!.. if anyone looking for signs of rates peaking..this is it, Nov still in play but a long way to go let's be fair ! AAPL . looking like the old IBM ? huh..(Sanford Bernstein) >>> fact is, if you put this data against any other name, hardly anyone would be long of it, because it's APPLE, folks like it and given it's size it effectively is in just about every ETF out there (and IMHO...Huawei is getting very competitive too, which has not happened in years...) 1. Apple’s recent results were quite similar to IBM’s on a topline basis, with Apple seeing a third straight quarter of negative YoY revenue growth. 2. Bernstein finds that financial comparisons with IBM two decades ago are not unfounded: "Apple between 2015 and 2023 has had strikingly similar pre-tax income and EPS growth as IBM did between 1997 and 2012." 3. Apple has seen a dramatic re-rating, especially between 2019-2021, resulting in the stock going from a below market multiple at ~11z in 2015 to ~29x today. 4. Bernstein sees two takeaways we can learn from IBM twenty years ago for Apple today (a) "....revenue growth matters, and strong EPS growth absent revenue growth is unlikely to be afforded a rich multiple...(b) customer lock-in can prove ephemeral when platforms change. IBM's strength in mainframes and associated account control once seemed unassailable, but the world moved to industry standard servers and the cloud" Biden to use G20 summit and Vietnam visit to highlight US as trustworthy alternative to China (qz.com) With China in a mountain of debt issues, that's why Biden and many others are interested... India's massive expansion to be a driver of global growth: S&P Global (cnbc.com) African leaders under threat: where is the next coup? – The Irish Times Gas strike at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatsone projects in Western Australia (afr.com) Hedge fund investor Dan Niles says Apple is now his largest single stock short (cnbc.com) Couldn't agree more SNB foreign exchange reserves fall further - SWI swissinfo.ch Walmart cuts starting pay for some new hires - WSJ By Reuters (investing.com) The wage price war over ? FTC's antitrust case against Amazon expected soon: Reports (cnbc.com) Credit card and car loan defaults hit 10-year high as inflation squeezes families (msn.com) Michael Pettis on X: "Joyce Chang always does good work. I'd add that it's not just the net outflows that matter, it is the composition of gross inflows, with less in the form of stable, long-term capital and more in the form of hot money. https://t.co/blVkSAzhWy" / X (twitter.com) China’s top chipmaker may be in hot water as US lawmakers call for further sanctions after Huawei ‘breakthrough’ (yahoo.com) Covid hospitalizations spike with new variant as U.S. readies vaccines (cnbc.com) No NO please NO ! Musk Blocked Ukraine's Starlink Access Near Crimea (businessinsider.com) Really ?? maybe he just wanted to sell his book.. Robin Brooks on X: "Brazil is the world's agricultural superpower. The August 2023 trade surplus dwarfs anything Brazil saw in the same month in previous years. That reflects steady improvement in agriculture exports (orange), so the very strong result this year is NOT an outlier. Brazil is rising. https://t.co/0GM0tMUxeB" / X (twitter.com) Tesla to install charging stations at 2,000 Hiltons in North America (cnbc.com) BMW to use Amazon cloud to build its driverless features for new EVs (cnbc.com) UK house prices suffer sharpest fall in 14 years | House prices | The Guardian Good news for the next generation of first time buyers! Hong Kong and southern China battle widespread flooding from record rains - BBC News whaoo - what a nightmare EURO STOXX 50 best hold around here or else

China seeks to broaden Apple iPhone ban to state firms and agencies. Beijing intends to extend that restriction far more broadly to a plethora of state-owned enterprises and other government-controlled organizations and EU cracks down on 6 Big Tech giants. Dominant players in the bloc will have to comply with the new digital competition rulebook Fed’s Collins: Fed needs patient, careful, deliberate policy approach >>> pretty strong U.S PMI services yesterday (big divergence with RoW), pushed UST yields higher, USD higher, duration, ND lower Berlin did not receive a request for the extradition of conscripts to Ukraine, all Ukrainians have refugee status - German Interior Ministry - Cuba uncovers ‘human trafficking ring’ recruiting for Russia’s war in Ukraine The Coming Green Energy Bailout. Renewable power operators already want rate increases for their subsidized projects >> big green energy inflation reduction Act needs bailing out already - pretty astonishing EU officials will begin meeting with member states this week to outline a plan on how to impose a windfall tax on profits generated by frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction The UK will rejoin the European Union's flagship Horizon science programme after two years of absence post-Brexit, the government has confirmed RBA's outgoing Lowe says productivity boost key to tame inflation, Chile cut rates for the 2nd meeting in a row, 75 bps decrease to 9. Fed's Beige book : modest economic growth continues as retail spending slows Oil Prices Surge, Set Sights on $100: What's Fueling the Rally? Charter, the second-biggest cable company in the US, says the cable TV model is broken BBG : Saudi Arabia continues to squeeze the American oil market, raising the official selling price (OSP) for its flagship Arab Light into the US to $7.45 per barrel above the benchmark -- a new record high. Very little Saudi oil is going to the US >>> The surge in oil prices “creates a tension between the growth story and the inflation story.” As for the Fed, “Their job has become infinitely more difficult because of this move.” Chinese EVs are now seen posing a ‘real threat’ to Europe’s auto industry India Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants rich nations to take a more constructive attitude on helping developing countries battling with climate change, saying it must come with action on financing and technology transfers-G20 coming up Markets : Crude stays firm(er), eventual supply issue could very well lead us to $100 oil again USD stays firm(er), UST yields, RoW weakening vs U.S ISM services stronger, says it all, though clearly signs of slowdown below (Beige book). The Reserve Bank of India has been frequently intervening in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market to make sure that the rupee does not drop to a record low, no impact of note, so far anyway >>> JPY getting daily comments from BoJ members, not that words will change anything, worth being cautious on JPY shorts and start to favour shorting CROSSJPY's from here. CABLE 3months lows, as Bailey seemed fairly convinced rates in 'peak mode' Equity markets : as stated earlier in the week, 'time for a hedging trade', enough issues looming to justify timing, together with high valuations, APPL, China, US debt ceiling, EU having a go at the big 6 Techs, duration selling off and higher crude 10y UST above 4.25%, alarm bells for some, if we go above 4.4% Fed's Collins says policymakers can 'proceed cautiously' on future rate hikes (cnbc.com) Fed's Beige Book: Modest economic growth continues as retail spending slows | Watch (msn.com) Fed's Job Gets Harder as Higher Oil Prices Sow Doubt on Soft Landing - Bloomberg RBA's outgoing Lowe says productivity boost key to tame inflation | Reuters Oil Prices Surge, Set Sights on $100: What's Fueling the Rally? (msn.com) Taiwan chip giant TSMC says Arizona plant making 'fast progress' (yahoo.com) Chinese EVs are now seen posing a 'real threat' to Europe's auto industry (cnbc.com) China trade: exports tumble for fourth consecutive month in August, headwinds to remain despite marginal gain | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) The Coming Green Energy Bailout - WSJ China seeks to broaden Apple iPhone ban to state firms and agencies (business-standard.com) Michael Pettis on X: ""Countries that run a persistent current account deficit will eventually be forced to adjust, but there is no mechanism to discipline countries that run a persistent surplus. Yet the surplus of one country must be the deficit of another." https://t.co/o9zpzrYe04" / X (twitter.com) Cuba uncovers ‘human trafficking ring’ recruiting for Russia’s war in Ukraine | Cuba | The Guardian EU cracks down on 6 Big Tech giants – POLITICO EU Challenges Apple, Microsoft in New Antitrust Push to Rein in Big Tech - Bloomberg they have 6months to comply/respond 'I could die': German military struggles to recruit - The Local UK 'underinvesting' in infrastructure and concrete panel crisis 'forseeable', former BoE chief economist says | Politics News | Sky News ''in need of a lot of infrastructure investments'...for a whole decade at least.. UK to rejoin EU science scheme after almost three years (yahoo.com)¨ finally some good news ! UK politicians were squabbling over fish and other nonsense, for what exactly ?.. The UK had safe water. Then Brexit allowed the Tories to flush away our environmental standards | Stella Creasy | The Guardian WeWork begins to renegotiate leases globally | Reuters Even Charter Thinks Cable TV Sucks Now: Disney Dispute (businessinsider.com) Alleged Launderer Assets Seized at Julius Baer, CS (finews.asia) The New UBS Embraces Shareholder Value (finews.asia) Japan joins Moon race with successful rocket launch - BBC News Nightmare ! Damaged train to be removed from Gotthard by end September - SWI swissinfo.ch Margaret Betts: Bletchley Park WW2 codebreaker who kept 'sharp brain right until the end' dies | UK News | Sky News Nasdaq - following script together with duration/UST long-end