Berkshire (after his AAPL sales in Q2) now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public , Buffet owns ~$277bn and the Fed has $190bn ISM Services :  index rebounded to 51.4 in July  (48.8 in June) , business activity, new orders, and employment ticked up >>> kicked yesterday's recovery in equity off lows (U.S shor-term rates well off yesterdays lows, 2s inversion curve etc, together with wall street officials calling for rate cuts, which pushed VIX back down to current levels from 60+ near yesterday U.S opening levels. N225 10pct of lows yesterday, VIX around 30, markets will remain somewhat volatile >>> A trading market!! no need to be married with any particular short-term views!! sentiment/VIX/SOFR can change very quickly Goldman: We boosted our U.S Q3 GDP forecast to +2.6% Anoher example, that a NIKKEI index (can) trade like a small cap, down and up 10pct within 24-36hours #riskmanagement >>> so far it's all been about equity risk, very little about #credit which should really be (at least part of) the focus Cryptoverse: Trump's bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate AUTHERS: “.. The Fed will not want to admit an error, or risk causing panic, by cutting fed funds before its next scheduled meeting in September , so life looks likely to be tough for a while. .. The concern should be whether such a sudden downdraft will create leveraged losses that could cause a cascade.” Elon Musk’s misinformation machine made the horrors of Southport/UK much worse #BTC a reminder that it is just another risky, leveraged asset, that still isn't a currency, still isn't a payment system nor a store of value.. . The great 'halving' story and new ETF entries with institutional money was the top of the story last 3months... >>> at the end of the day, long crypto, is long excess liquidity and in reality short vol/VIX etc Rio Tinto-backed start-up seeks funds for lithium breakthrough to cut reliance on China . Analysts say new techniques could double production of key battery material and have similar impact to shale on oil sector #GOOG Google just lost the biggest tech antitrust case in decades Trading platforms return after going down amid global stock turmoil, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, and TD Ameritrade, all suffered from technical issues, some lasted hours yesterday SPX Forward PE’s still close to 22, cheaper but not a cheap market Cryptoverse: Trump's bitcoin stockpile plan stirs debate ( msn.com ) >>> stories doing the rounds lately, fits nicely with MMT debasement stories about Trump, policies on steroids. Vance ( Rebekah Mercer's man) appointed as his official puppet ISM Services PMI Moves Back Into Expansion Territory In July | Seeking Alpha This was THE key on the day to kick start a bounce-change very short-term sentiment Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: ""Wild" doesn't come close to describing what happened to the VIX today: After spiking to 66 this morning from below 20, it halved intra-day and is now settling just above 30. #economy #markets #econtwitter https://t.co/ngJ8wYH2vo " / X Global stock market rout sends Wall Street's 'fear index' soaring ( qz.com ) The Fed is trying to 'fight a ghost' as recession fears mount ( cnbc.com ) Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says jobs data weak but not necessarily recessionary ( msn.com ) Charles Schwab, Fidelity, and other trading platforms are down ( qz.com ) How can big data reduce shipping emissions? - Financial Times - Partner Content by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines ( ft.com ) Nvidia stock is tanking after reports of an AI chip design flaw ( qz.com ) Still up 100pct on the year though! Office of the Attorney General closes its criminal investigation against Glencore International AG with a summary penalty order and an abandonment order ( bundesanwaltschaft.ch ) NO appeal from GLEN, so final ruling Rio Tinto-backed start-up seeks funds for lithium breakthrough to cut reliance on China ( ft.com ) Google loses biggest tech antitrust case since Microsoft's in the 1990s ( qz.com ) CrowdStrike pushing back on Delta's response to IT outage ( qz.com ) Elon Musk’s misinformation machine made the horrors of Southport much worse ( prospectmagazine.co.uk ) Elon should....keep quiet Bangladesh updates: PM Hasina resigns amid massive protests ( msn.com ) Tropical storm Debby live updates: Six killed after storm makes landfall in Florida as hurricane ( msn.com ) NIKKEI

#JPY matters, worse scenario - fastest unwind that I lived through was October 1998 Japan's stock market, the Nikkei 225, is currently set to post its largest 2-day drop in history, Japan’s world-beating rally YTD wiped out over just a couple of days, stairs up, elevator down >>> JPY carry unwind happens fast, in days rather than months, always #margincalls etc, market never learns >>> once again, it piled in LONG mainly QQQ, NIKKEI, Ai and any other possible stories + short vol of course and short JPY, all reversed/reversing rapidly, this marekt dislocation will represent great opportunities over next few weeks The Federal Reserve is essentially saying that the U.S. shot itself in the foot with its export controls on China (which was illustrated by Intel's recent staff layoffs), and similarly to Russian sanctions, they didn't quite hurt as the West thought they would Hertz accelerates sales of Tesla vehicles as value crumbles The 10-Year Note Yield just posted its largest weekly drop since the 2008 Financial Crisis, falling 40 basis points last week Berkshire Hathaway sold more stock last quarter than any other quarter in its entire history ($75bn). Now, Buffett is sitting on a record $277bn cash, after selling 50% stake in AAPL The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has rejected US and Arab efforts to 'temper its response' and that it had 'told Arab diplomats it didn’t care if the response triggered a war' Nvidia is reportedly in the DOJ antitrust hot seat , oh dear and the entire world is long of it... Auto loan and credit card delinquencies ... highest since 2011 #USDMXN Mexico another country with a 7% deficit of annual GDP Now adjusting and following markets... JPMorgan and Citi now predict that the Fed will cut rates by 50 bps in September, 50 bps in November, 25 in December.... >>>>>>>> which is NDEARLY ALL PRICED in already BofA’s Hartnett Says Sell Stocks at the Fed’s First Rate Cut ( yahoo.com ) Nvidia is reportedly in the DOJ antitrust hot seat ( msn.com ) Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public… Buffett has ~$277 Billion. The Fed has $195 Billion. Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway halves stake in Apple ( ft.com ) Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast ( natesilver.net ) Hertz accelerates sales of Tesla vehicles as value crumbles | Electrek Iran said to dismiss US, Arab nations’ calls for restraint even if it sparks war ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "More calls from Chinese economists for less infrastructure spending and more household transfers, in this case Mao Zhenhua: "I think the efficiency of directing funds to infrastructure spending is low, while the benefits of giving it directly to residents is high and will have a" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The Sahm Rule recession indicator surged to 0.53 in July from 0.43, suggesting the US economy is in a recession. The Sahm Rule signals a downturn once the unemployment rate increases 0.5 percentage points above its previous 12-month low. After the unemployment rate https://t.co/LUrHjaii2q " / X Geopolitical Risk and Decoupling: Evidence from U.S. Export Controls - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK ( newyorkfed.org ) They also highlight that "the benefits of U.S. export controls, namely denying China access to advanced technology, may be limited as a result of Chinese strategic behavior. Indeed, there is evidence that, following U.S. export controls, China has boosted domestic innovation and self-reliance, and increased purchases from non-U.S. firms that produce similar technology to the U.S.-made ones subject to export controls." In other words, it's almost a pure loss for US firms who lose customers, revenue and market capitalization whereas the affected Chinese firms find alternative suppliers and China boosts its domestic innovation and self-reliance. Intel suffers one of its worst days in 40 years as stock plunges 26%, loses $30M in market value after earnings miss ( msn.com ) this was in May .. . US revokes Intel, Qualcomm's export licenses to sell to China's Huawei, sources say | Reuters

UN Security Council countries express alarm over risk of all-out Middle East war FOMC modestly dovish, depending on how you slice it , 25bps coming in Sep and pall priced in for a while, markets more than dovish than the actual statement. BoJ cut as we all know, nothing till next April now...might be time to TP on JPY longs.. BoE up next today, a little more than a 50/50 chance of a cut, finally Eurozone July inflation gave the #ECB  no green light to cut in Sept yet, but markets still price 96% probability for another 25bps ECB cut ADP says 122,000 jobs added in July . Smallest gain in six months points to weaker labor market, NFP tomorrow so let's see. #OpenAI Touts New AI Safety Research. Critics Say It’s a Good Step, but Not Enough >>> AI company recommends more AI to solve AI's problems .. Project 2025 director steps down amid Trump campaign criticism Rio Tinto reaches ‘inflection point’ as growth projects boost prospects. Chief executive refuses to rule out looking at large takeovers as copper and aluminium gains offset weaker iron ore EU firms resist European Commission plan to screen private investment in China BOJ : finally moved. Nomura now assumes another rate hike in April 2025 as their main scenario . An additional rate hike is now likely at the April 2025 MPM, and they see near-term downside risks for yen-crosses SPX bounced right on that massive trend line >>now above the 50 day again.... and month-end flows pushed short-term signals to overbought already, the market cap swings (down and up) previous 48hours been the largest EVER i believe...totally insane GOLD : highest monthly close ever Crude up, middle concerns #USDJPY go back few weeks ago, we discussed possible target 148-150 USDJPY and equivalents in crosses, we got that overnight, if you been riding on long JPY side, never hurts to take some P #GBPUSD breaking down through key support 1.2800 area, 1.25 again? - #EURUSD similar picture, all oin all CROSSJPY's should struggle to rally Middle East tensions: Funeral held for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh | News UK Video News | Sky News UN Security Council countries express alarm over risk of all-out Middle East war ( msn.com ) ADP says 122,000 jobs added in July. Smallest gain in six months points to weaker labor market. - MarketWatch Fed's Powell rejects idea politics has any bearing on policy choices ( msn.com ) -Unch for the 8th time, no rate cuts until confident inflation is moving to 2% -Inflation eased but remains 'somewhat elevated', although 'some progress' made -risks on both side of the dual mandate, employment rate has moved up but still low -Is a Sep cut nailed on ? point is its already priced in Nick Timiraos on X: "Takeaways from the July FOMC: The bar to cut in September seems quite low based on everything Powell said at the presser -Policy looks more restrictive now than it did earlier this year. -The recent inflation news is better than last year's swift decline because it is more" / X Quarterly Refunding Statement of Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Josh Frost | U.S. Department of the Treasury >>> more bills Buffett cuts Bank of America stake, sales top $3 bln | Reuters something to be concerned about ? U.S. will exempt some allies from trade rule aimed at China ( qz.com ) Market Interest on X: "BoJ and #USDJPY TLDR of the BoJ meeting is a cautious hike. They committed to do more if the economy improved as projected, but this relates to the risks the forecast (upside) rather than actual projections, which look flattish. Hence, cautious. It's worth noting that the JGB https://t.co/uuSMJWJrVT " / X Xi’s Embrace of Italy PM Meloni Shows China Has Use for Friends in Europe - Bloomberg EU firms resist European Commission plan to screen private investment in China | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Voices: Rachel Reeves’ urinal problem is about much more than a toilet... ( msn.com ) Rio Tinto reaches ‘inflection point’ as growth projects boost prospects ( ft.com ) OpenAI Touts New AI Safety Research. Critics Say It’s a Good Step, but Not Enough | WIRED Project 2025 Director Steps Down From Heritage Foundation - Newsweek Trump on Harris: 'Is she Indian or is she black?' ( bbc.com ) lost the plot? SPX500 - fade it again ?

Japan’s central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate to “around 0.25%” >>> huge key long-term support #USDJPY still 151.80 area Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, Hamas says >>> Middle tensions escalating #Brent , as US Carries out strike in Iraq amid escalated tensions after Israel airstrike in Beirut >>> #brent crude sitting near lows of recent range BoJ raised its benchmark interest rate to “around 0.25%”, as exp. BofA's Savita Subramanian sees a rangebound S&P 500 for the rest of the year and little stock price upside for the next decade. "Valuation suggests paltry price return for next 10yrs but dividends should contribute to healthy real total returns from here." #incomeportfolio Donald Trump’s pitch to the crypto crowd lacks logic. Being a force for stability is a tough ask for a volatile asset. Trump's son-in-law-backed Software Giant QXO dropped 80%, Valuation nosedived from $90B to $8.6B Prof. PAUL CHRISTENSEN Electric Vehicle Battery Fires/Video , 9months old, but well worth few mins, even 30mins US interest on debt payments as a % of tax receipts 2025: 25% and 2015: 6% Private sector hiring rate fell to 3.7% in latest JOLTS (lowest April 2020 and in line with 2013-2014 trend) - Bloomberg. US JOLTS Job Openings Jun: 8.184M (est 8.000M; prev R 8.230M) NVDA  is down 25% in five weeks Buffett cuts BofA stake again, unloading $3 billion in July Tesla analyst nearly crashes while using ‘Full Self-Driving’ and Tesla is recalling over 1.8 million vehicles because the hood can open while the car is moving #GOLD vs #Copper ratio higher again, usually not a great sign for markets New poll says Kamala Harris has pulled even with former President Trump among swing state voters As of 3 weeks ago, the Nasdaq 100 was beating the Russell 2,000 by 20 percentage points over the prior six months. Now the Russell 2,000 is outperforming the Nasdaq 100 by 5.2 percentage points over the last six months #rotation as expected few weeks back and it came fast! #rotation out of techs, into financials, energy and small caps #Mag7 below their 50dma Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, Hamas says - SWI swissinfo.ch US Carries Out Strike In Iraq Amid Escalated Tensions After Israel Airstrike In Beirut ( msn.com ) BOJ raises benchmark interest rate, outlines roadmap for trimming bond buying program ( cnbc.com ) Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads Trump By 1 Point In Latest Survey ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris pulls ahead of Donald Trump in swing states: Poll ( thehill.com ) Microsoft's Strong Q4 Earnings: What It Means For Your Investment Strategy (NASDAQ:MSFT) | Seeking Alpha Intel will cut ‘thousands’ more jobs, Bloomberg reports ( msn.com ) Chinese Stocks Eye Best Day Since April as Stimulus Calls Grow - Bloomberg It’s not just Big Macs. Consumers are ditching Johnnie Walker whisky and Casamigos tequila ( yahoo.com ) US National Debt as % of GDP... 1980: 31% 1985: 40% 1990: 52% 1995: 65% 2000: 58% 2005: 61% 2010: 87% 2015: 101% Today: 122% German economy unexpectedly shrank 0.1% in second quarter ( msn.com ) Tesla (TSLA) Deploys Fix to 1.85 Million US Cars After Hoods Fly Open - Bloomberg Tesla (TSLA) Analyst Nearly Crashes While Testing ‘Full Self-Driving’ - Bloomberg Prof. PAUL CHRISTENSEN Electric Vehicle Battery Fires SUBSCRIBE NOW ( youtube.com ) Wealthy investors help drive surging demand for gold ( ft.com ) Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sells Bank of America for a ninth-straight day ( cnbc.com ) Donald Trump’s pitch to the crypto crowd lacks logic ( ft.com ) QXO Shares Drop 82% as Hldrs Plan to Resell Shares - MarketWatch Lord Patten tears into 'saloon bar bore' Nigel Farage ( thelondoneconomic.com ) Air New Zealand becomes first major airline to drop 2030 climate goal ( cnbc.com ) Hunt ‘knowingly and deliberately’ lied about finances, says Reeves | Rachel Reeves | The Guardian shame he always sounded like the most likable chap within Torys 'Controversial' new 370,000 a year mandatory housing target announced by government | Politics News | Sky News doing what they say they were going to do.. #brent

Artprice by Artmarket.com : 28th annual report - The Art Market in 2023. A new record number of artworks sold at auction. Biggest national marketplace: the USA. Female artists showed spectacular growth Why did most markets # SELLOFF recently, blame the # JPY carry trade, #leverage works both ways (hence BoJ tomorrow is key - either way) Softer inflation data set markets for a broadly anticipated rate cut in Sep, the equity market's focus has shifted to growth ahead of key earnings season/results and the ADP/NFP reports this week (and going fwd) will be key >>> so expect Powell to focus on 'negative' labor market momentum tom and going fwd to justify the cut The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) fell again in June, to 2.1% and with meaningful shelter disinflation arriving in June, the declines in inflation are broadening Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan, GOOG's version costs $300'000 GS turns tactically cautious on risk assets, moving equities in its global asset allocation framework from overweight to neutral on a 3-month horizon as equities performed strongly in the first half of the year.   On a 12-month horizon, Goldman Sachs remains moderately risk-on and continues to overweight equities PBoC did not stop buying Gold in May Container freight rates are halfway to peak Covid levels G20 finance ministers discuss a global tax on the super-rich. Brazil is proposing a global wealth tax of 2% that would only affect about 100 billionaire families but could raise $250bn to tackle the climate crisis McDonalds sees same store sales fall for the first time since '20 WTI crude 2months lows mid 70's >>> is it time to 'long' oil related stuff ?...worth starting to accumulate, copper - see comments below from May 2024 A day of chaos in Israel as far-right protesters storm military bases Generative AI requires massive amounts of power and water, and the aging U.S. grid can’t handle the load Artprice by Artmarket.com : 28th annual report - The Art Market in 2023. A new record number of artworks sold at auction. Biggest national marketplace: the USA. Female artists showed spectacular growth ( prnewswire.com ) Asia market mixed as BOJ begins its two-day policy meeting, eyes on fresh earnings reports ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris must reaffirm her commitment to Bidenomics ( ft.com ) May 2024: short-term price action vs long-term views.. #copper Jeff Currie: “Long Copper Is the Best Trade I Have Ever Seen” Robert Friedland: “forget China real estate, it’s the green shift” Stan Druckenmiller: “Copper is a pretty simple story, takes about 12 years, greenfield to produce copper, and you got EVs, the grid, data centers, and believe it or not munitions”. Nick Timiraos on X: "The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) fell again in June, to 2.1% With meaningful shelter disinflation arriving in June, the declines in inflation are broadening. https://t.co/84wzo4UMgK https://t.co/IUj6Y93m7I " / X Rick Rule: $100 Trillion Dollars in Liability; Why This is Far Worse Than Post Vietnam Dollar Crisis ( youtube.com ) Apple says its AI models were trained on Google's custom chips ( cnbc.com ) Argentine President Milei calls Venezuela's Maduro a 'dictator' and says data shows 'a crushing victory for the opposition' ( msn.com ) G20 finance ministers discuss a global tax on the super-rich ( msn.com ) ‘Morally, nobody’s against it’: Brazil’s radical plan to tax global super-rich to tackle climate crisis | Brazil | The Guardian Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Biden Administration Buys Oil to Refill SPR - Bloomberg Chinese Central Bank (PBoC) Did Not Stop Buying Gold in May ( gainesvillecoins.com ) This article is an analysis of how the Chinese central bank (PBoC) buys gold in London from Western bullion banks. Because the bullion banks take care of the gold transport for the PBoC, the shipments from London to Beijing are disclosed in UK customs data. The customs data reveals that the PBoC continued to buy gold in May—when it communicated to the market it discontinued buying—at a rate of 53 tonnes. The PBoC stated it stopped buying to dampen the gold price so it could acquire more gold. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2024 | World Gold Council Baidu Launches New $28,000 Robotaxi In Wuhan ( forbes.com ) Tesla (TSLA) Analyst Nearly Crashes While Testing ‘Full Self-Driving’ - Bloomberg Holger Zschaepitz on X: "As US unemployment rate has risen from a low of 3.4% in 2023 to 4.1% today, the Sahm rule sounds a recession alarm. BUT Covid has artificially depressed the unemployment rate and the layoff rate remains very low. The unemployment rate has risen b/c net job growth did not keep up https://t.co/repFRps8me " / X Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Real 10y yields on German govt bonds are stable at 0.5%, although nominal yields have recently fallen sharply. However, 10y inflation expectations have fallen to the same extent. https://t.co/IJWzbu7VkP " / X A day of chaos in Israel as far-right protesters storm military bases ( msn.com ) How the massive power draw of generative AI is overtaxing our grid ( cnbc.com ) WTI vs BP (one can use many other names)

#NASDAQ held that 18900 level last week, #SPX500 5450 big weekly level, below 50dma but still above the 100dma levels >>> huge reporting week coming up  + FOMC (moving closer to a cut) + #MSFT on Wed, BoE and BoJ on Friday (U.S payrolls as well) >>> equally important for the #carry trade, #USDJPY big week in Japan, where officials from the MoF been saying to markets that the levels of USDJPY are wrong given rates path on both sides Tech stress last week was last seen in late October 2023. Back then VIX was at 21+ Copper price action last 2months says global slowdown is material, and yet.. Container freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route have rallied recently as world trade growth slightly improves and due to supply constraints . 70% fewer ships are traveling through the Suez Canal due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The route around South Africa takes 10 days longer and ties up ~30% of additional freight capacity. Bill Ackman slashes fundraising target for US fund IPO by as much as 90% OpenAI's Apple deal could be a bigger threat to Google than SearchGPT Trump says he'll make a national Bitcoin reserve, says he who hated it while back Italy PM Meloni vows to 'relaunch' ties with China BofA says cooling economy will crack Big Tech rally even more US Federal debt just hit another record and is $2.5 billion from reaching $35trn for the first time in history. Since 2019, US Federal debt has skyrocketed by $13trn VolSignals on X: "CTAs: did the market just dodge an $80 billion dollar bullet? h/t BNP 7/24 https://t.co/VRyvPyPZ1g " / X >>>> market internals matter, vols, systematic CTA's etc City split on Bank of England's August interest rate decision ( cityam.com ) OpenAI's deal with Apple could be Google biggest threat ( qz.com ) Bloomberg Opinion on X: "Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley has long been in the “higher for longer” camp on interest rates. But he’s changed his mind. Here’s why he thinks the Fed should cut rates next week 🎥 https://t.co/yj6tS1tZ7j " / X China’s crippling debt levels seen worsening as government measures focus on ‘buying time’ | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Container freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route have rallied recently as world trade growth slightly improves and due to supply constraints. 70% fewer ships are traveling through the Suez Canal due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The route around South https://t.co/W9RYVInDxr " / X BofA Says Cooling Economy Will Crack Big Tech Rally Even More - Bloomberg Bill Ackman slashes fundraising target for US fund IPO by as much as 90% ( ft.com ) Donald Trump Vows to «Fire Gary Gensler» in Bitcoin Bid ( finews.asia ) Trump promises a Bitcoin reserve at the Bitcoin conference ( qz.com ) Italy PM Meloni vows to 'relaunch' bilateral ties with China ( bbc.com ) Starliner return date in reach for Boeing and NASA ( qz.com ) Olympics 2024: Games declared open as Celine Dion and Lady Gaga thrill Paris - highlights | Reuters Politics: Venezuela's opposition does not recognize Maduro's election victory | blue News ( bluewin.ch ) Yellen says $3T of fresh capital is needed annually to fight climate change ( msn.com ) Water bosses responsible for repeated sewage dumping could face criminal charges | Enfield Independent Richard Behar exchanged emails with Bernie Madoff for a decade ( cnbc.com ) Miraval mystery: The Jersey trust at heart of Brad Pitt wine war - CityAM >>> Brad Pitt has demanded to know who he is in business with after half of his hip wine brand Chateau Miraval, sold by his former partner Angelina Jolie to exiled Russian billionaire Yuri Shefler, ended up in a secretive Jersey trust NASDAQ USDJPY

Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer plan meeting to drive UK-EU ‘reset’. European Commission president is aiming for late August or early September encounter, according to officials Kamala Harris said she’s ready to debate Trump on Sept. 10 The deleveraging dynamic is shifting from a concentrated short squeeze in quant equity market neutral funds to a broader set of macro & trend funds /Thread Goldman Sachs maintains $2,700 price target on Gold due to Chinese demand Revolut secures UK banking licence after 3-year wait Boeing finalizes 737 MAX guilty plea deal , US outlines reasons Hungary took on 1bn euros in loans from Chinese banks in April to finance energy and infrastructure projects Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles?. Vast new holdings of grain, natural gas and oil suggest trouble ahead #USDCAD has not broken above 1.3950 for a few years - chart Want to go to Trump's private event at the Bitcoin conference? It will cost you $800,000 , this seems a little steep! Almost a third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 results so far , and the spotlight is increasingly on sales. Only 43% of companies have managed to beat revenue expectations , which would be the lowest reading in five years NASDAQ has traded inside the trend channel since Oct lows. We went through the 50 day on Wed, and now taking out the 100 day around 18900, give or take, which is a key level to hold/must hold for the bulls now - chart below, pretty week price action into the close last night Ursula von der Leyen and Keir Starmer plan meeting to drive UK-EU ‘reset’ ( ft.com ) Markets Tear Up Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’ - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "It is true that tariffs are likely to be inconsistent with a weak dollar policy. It would be much better to go right to the source of the problem and restrict speculative purchases of the dollar. https://t.co/QmhjWXVI12 via @ft" / X Japan urges G20 vigilance against excessive FX fluctuations | Reuters Barack Obama To Finally Endorse Kamala Harris: Report - Newsweek Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles? ( economist.com ) A second Trump presidency could mean big changes for EVs ( qz.com ) Mercedes profits plunge amid waning electric car sales - latest updates ( telegraph.co.uk ) Finbarr Bermingham on X: "Wow, this is very interesting Hungary took on 1bn euros in loans from Chinese banks in April to finance energy and infrastructure projects. China Development Bakn, China Exim, Bank of China (Hungary) involved in a three-year floating-rate loan. https://t.co/4fxUgx0RNl " / X Trump at Bitcoin conference will cost $800,000 ( qz.com ) CrowdStrike gives $10 Uber Eats gift cards as apology for global tech outage ( qz.com ) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "This is concerning: 11% of US consumers with 90-day+ new delinquencies of FHA single-family loans cited unemployment as the main reason, the most in over 16 years. An FHA loan is a type of mortgage for borrowers with lower credit scores or who do not qualify for a conventional https://t.co/ZY8rMJHnml " / X The journey of nickel ( glencore.com ) #nickel Goldman still bullish on gold, China underpinning demand outlook ( yahoo.com ) Boeing finalizes 737 MAX guilty plea deal, US outlines reasons ( msn.com ) Revolut secures UK banking licence after 3-year wait #USDCAD do we hold here again below 1.3900 or do we shoot for 1.45+.. NASDAQ

The S&P 500 officially closed the day 2.3% lower, ending its longest streak without a 2%+ decline since 2007 >>> all good things come to and end.  Copper also down for the 8th consecutive day, MAG 7 ETF down 6% (easily its worst day ever) >>> Gamma acts as a throttle for volatility, volatility serves as a toggle for equity exposure (vols down, systematic buyers come in every day, last few months.. >>> now sub 5500 SPX and 19500 QQQ, markets short gamma. .. market structure matters! >>> #NVDA below 50dma etc >>> as if the whole world shorted JPY to buy anything else, including metals and BTC ?.. Ex-NY Fed's Bill Dudley: "I’ve long been in the 'higher for longer' camp...The facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind . The Fed should cut, preferably at next week’s policy-making meeting.", citing growth and inflation data is now much softer >>> if the FED does not cut in July, market could go on and price 50bps cut in Sep Trump odds are below where they were after the debate…>>> Musk also backs down from $45mio a month pledge to Trump Signs of a weakening consumer keep mounting . The latest: the share of credit card balances past due reached a series high in Philly Fed data back to 2012. Some 2.6% of credit card balances were 60 days past due in Q1, up from a low of 1.1% reached in 2021 Two of Silicon Valley’s famous venture capitalists make the case for backing Trump: that their ability to make money is the only value that matters. #GOOG clearly admitted in their earnings report that that not seeing adequate current ROIC on AI capex, most likely are over-investing, and struggling to provide concrete examples of killer apps deployed worldwide, also emphasized that adoption of new technologies takes time.... >>> "AI is sucking all of the oxygen out of the room," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson tells Yahoo Finance, adding: "I see AI everywhere, except in the numbers. ... It hasn't really driven revenues and earnings anywhere." Bank of Canada cuts 25bps, will cut further into year-end Ford profitability skids on higher warranty costs, EV losses U.S. will pay $1.14 trillion in interest payments on debt this year U.S Credit Card Balances past due reach highest level in more than 12 years Fact Check: Trump Claimed His Ear Began Regrowing Day After Assassination Attempt? Interest rates: The Federal Reserve needs to cut rates now: Bill Dudley ( afr.com ) Markets agree.. US Yield Curve Steepens as Bond Traders See Fed Cuts Looming - Bloomberg Yen jumps as carry trades unwind, risk mood sours | Reuters Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate again, more cuts 'reasonable' if inflation keeps easing ( msn.com ) Share of US Credit Cards Past Due Climbs to Highest Since 2012 - Bloomberg Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ is the only cartel that trips twice over the very same Russian, Kazakh and Iraqi compensation plans for overproduction #OOTT Link to the compensation plans (all the way to September 2025): https://t.co/E85u2cZglh " / X Copper falls below $9,000 level on China demand concerns - Markets - Business Recorder ( brecorder.com ) Melinda Gates, Reed Hastings, Beyoncé: Business leaders on Kamala Harris ( qz.com ) Ford profitability skids on higher warranty costs, EV losses ( msn.com ) meanwhile much better here at Renault sticks to 2024 outlook as first-half profit beats estimates - CNA ( channelnewsasia.com ) Nestle Q1 preview: Nescafe maker to likely report 16% in PAT; margins seen to climb 200 bps ( msn.com ) Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "🇨🇳 Hundreds of #China Firms Scrap IPO Plans as Rules Tighten - Shanghai Securities News *An increasing number of Chinese companies have scrapped their A-share IPO plans as local stock exchanges have tightened listing rules and the country’s slowing economy dealt a blow to some of" / X The moral bankruptcy of Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz - The Verge Elon Musk says he's not donating $45 million a month to Trump's campaign: 'Simply not true' ( msn.com ) Bob Elliott on X: "Trump campaign rhetoric calling for high tariffs and a weaker dollar policy are in direct contrast with each other, making them better campaign fodder than a coherent policy making approach. As it is, macro forces matter much more for the USD than a President's wishes. Thread." / X Virgin Atlantic passengers to pay green levy on every flight ( msn.com ) U.S. will pay $1.14 trillion in interest payments on debt this year ( finbold.com ) Egypt raises domestic fuel prices by up to 15% before IMF review | Reuters Fact Check: Trump Claimed His Ear Began Regrowing Day After Assassination Attempt? ( msn.com )

#NASDAQ 19'500, markets get short gamma below there, similarly 5500 for #SPX500 Harris vs Trump, long way to go, but Trump would have definitely preferred to go against Biden.... NEW Reuters/Ipsos poll (conducted after Biden dropped out) Harris 42% Trump 38% Kennedy 8% SPX500 key support around 5500, Very key weekly support, market gets short gamma below it , so beware, earnings yesterday were weaker than expected (Via miss on revenues, UPS miss expectations, TSLA delay disappointing earnings again - after a huge rally in the shares lately though, GOOG decent numbers, CEO though asked for patience on Ai, DB weaker too this morning >>> Richmond Fed manuf lowest since May 2020, Phily Fed similar lowest since Dec 2020, U.S existing home sales down 5.4% in June Germany’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 42.6 in July vs. 44.0 exp , services PMI for the German economy fell to 52.0 in July vs. 53.1 estimate. French services PMI were slightly higher in in July though (Olympics?) #JPY : Japan's chief cabinet secretary calls for broad-based wage hikes >>>  Most #BOJ  Watchers See July Rate Hike Risk With Bond-Buying Cut – Bloomberg The slump in China economic activity is again proving to be a headwind for certain parts of the European equity markets, as nearly all industries with China exposure forecast to experience earnings stagnation or weakness FT - Investors warm to UK equities in ‘turning of tide’ for unloved market. Fund managers including BlackRock , Allianz and Ruffer are betting political stability will boost London market U.S : Used car and truck prices are now down 17.5% since the 2021 peak, the largest decline in 15 years Americans are traveling at record levels : There are a record ~418,000 flights scheduled between the US and Europe from April to October 2024, and yet airlines are struggling on earnings The Mexican government is expressing very strong criticisms about the structure of global trade and especially of China's role in global imbalances Few months ago, experts called for Copper to go to the moon...3months lows now Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds | Reuters Hollywood Is Lining up Behind Kamala Harris - Business Insider Trump nephew reveals Uncle Donald’s racist outburst in new book | Books | The Guardian French services sector grew in July, helped by Olympics, PMI shows | Reuters Record house prices depress US home sales in June | Reuters Homebuyers Backed Out of Deals at a Record Rate in June ( redfin.com ) Investors warm to UK equities in ‘turning of tide’ for unloved market Japan's chief cabinet secretary calls for broad-based wage hikes ( msn.com ) Trimming Back: The Bloomberg Close, Asia Edition - Bloomberg Is it time to rotate away from Magnificent Seven stocks? – The Armchair Trader China’s Xi Jinping bets on high tech for ‘great rejuvenation’ ( ft.com ) China's rate cuts fail to revive iron ore and copper: Russell ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Caixin: "China’s rapid adoption of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) is posing a problem for many insurers. They’re losing money on insuring the vehicles, as strict pricing rules mean they can’t raise their premiums to the point of profitability." https://t.co/wUOxuoSqes " / X China’s non-financial debt growth slows with firms and households unwilling to leverage up | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) What Qualifies Julius Baer's New CEO ( finews.asia ) We used to work together !... well done Stefan Bollinger ! French left agrees on consensus candidate for prime minister ( thelocal.fr ) Paris 2024: Russian arrested on suspicion of plotting to destabilise Olympic Games | World News | Sky News Porsche profits dampened by model revamps, China slump | Reuters UPS shares fall 12%, post worst day on record after earnings miss and guidance cut ( msn.com ) Google Earnings Top Estimates With $24 Billion Quarterly Profit ( msn.com ) Tesla earnings recap: Elon Musk failed to reassure investors after Robotaxi delay and profit miss ( yahoo.com ) Deutsche Bank shares drop 8% after lender snaps 15-quarter profit streak ( msn.com ) Germany bans Muslim association for pursuing radical Islam | Reuters South African Inflation Slows as Food and Transport Costs Cool - Bloomberg Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 The Mexican government is expressing very strong criticisms about the structure of global trade and especially of China's role in global imbalances. On Saturday, Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O said that... https://t.co/47fnfWLSdE via @Mexico News Daily" / X

Markets : JPY stronger again (#NIKKEI correction ), VIX topside pressure could put eq markets overall under pressure, 20% of SPX reporting, GOOG, TSLA and U.S PCE Friday US Election : Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday and endorsed VP Kamala Harris, who secured enough support from delegates for nomination. Harris’ platform will likely be similar to Biden's so the policy impact of switching candidates should be minimal >>> Trump peaked at 71% on predictit and it now 59%, Kamala has some work to do, let's see how she can do, right now not very well 'known' by many young Americans, which is the ones (in particular) she needs to go and motivate to vote ! nothing much changed, it's about the middle 5-10% undecided voters French centre-right offers 'legislative pact' that could help Macron Israel-Hamas war latest: Israeli military orders evacuation of part of humanitarian zone in Gaza Porsche: „The transition to electric vehicles will take longer than we assumed five years ago,” Porsche said in a statement. Sales will depend on demand and how EVs develop across the world, it said CrowdStrike outage - class action risk, price action very weak, through 200dma Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index has sliced right thru its 200-day moving average Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, in his State of the Nation address, announces the total shutdown and ban of online casinos, now mostly owned by Chinese, in the country I ndia : Budget 2024 proposes to cut the customs duty to 6% on Gold and Silve r. Moreover, the finance minister has also proposed to reduce customs duty on platinum to 6.4% Tory leadership race triggered as Rishi Sunak formally steps down FT _ Terrific analysis of China's third plenum,  the antipathy toward expanding consumer spending is becoming such a striking anomaly. A recipe for escalating trade frictions Background slides to opening remarks ( europa.eu ) Welcome address by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Joint ECB-IMF-IMFER Conference 2024 Elon Musk, Mark Cuban, and more business leaders on Joe Biden's announcement ( qz.com ) Israel-Hamas war latest: Israeli military orders evacuation of part of humanitarian zone in Gaza ( msn.com ) Will it be Harris vs Trump?: a trader's week ahead playbook ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Samsung strike in South Korea continues into its third week ( qz.com ) Gold and silver to become cheaper, customs duty cut to 6% - The Economic Times ( indiatimes.com ) China’s Xi Jinping bets on high tech for ‘great rejuvenation’ ( ft.com ) For China, EU ties looking rocky after re-election of hawkish Ursula von der Leyen | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Marcos Shuts Down China-Centric Casinos Backed By Duterte ( yahoo.com ) Porsche waters down EV ambitions, says transition will take 'years' ( msn.com ) The CrowdStrike outage caused chaos for business – could we see a class action? ( theconversation.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "#Copper is currently being challenged by ongoing China demand weakness driving a cont. rise in exchange-monitored stocks. Overall, a resurgent Trump and his anti-renewable stance has added some additional downward pressure to a sector which also includes #silver. https://t.co/deE6vfQ5od " / X Why Switzerland is diverging from Europe on the Energy Charter Treaty ( swissinfo.ch ) Tory leadership race – live: New leader to be elected in November as Robert Jenrick tipped as frontrunner ( msn.com ) French centre-right offers 'legislative pact' that could help Macron | Reuters #SPX >> 5500 key support area on weekly close, break would trigger a bigger correction like the one in April

Week ahead : Trump trade on/off, 20% of SPX companies report earnings this week, and most important data probably U.S PCE on Friday Biden abandons his re-election bid, endorses Kamala Harris, his withdrawal resets the contest ? Dems will try not to contest, but.. any new surprise nomination ? Obama ? In many ways, risk is Trump goes much more vocal again, he really wanted to be on the ticket vs Biden, this possibly changes his attitude, Trump will/could push full on 'tariffs' on everyone he doesn't like and this will not be welcome China cut short and long-term rates by 10 basis points on Monda y, with the central bank saying it was aiming to support growth, in a debt driven world, reforms maybe, but choice often goes to back to more debt and cutting rates Trump says he knows nothing about ‘seriously extreme’ Project 2025 that mirrors many of his proposed policies, Trump 2.0 would not play out like Trump 1.0 in markets. Both the domestic and global contexts have changed materially since 2016 >>> and in very short-term : Markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ after Biden drops out of presidential race (negative gamma can work both ways, lets see) UK : The Labour chancellor should (could) sell Britain’s seized crypto assets to fund her economic plans US small-cap stock funds had their 2nd largest weekly inflow on record. Over the last week, almost $10 billion flowed into US small-cap funds ('they bought the break-up') Apollo / 'Half of the population has extreme long-term inflation expectations , which is a problem for the Fed and its credibility.' SPX price action (and NASDAQ) : l ast week, markets shifted to negative gamma , potentially increasing intraday volatility going forward, particularly if we break sub 5500 SPX and 19500 NASDAQ), technical indicators are turning bearish, with all/most SMAs now negative, #VIX also jumped from hibernation towards 16 (from 13 area) AND JPY is still going Markets could unwind the 'Trump trade' after Biden drops out of presidential race ( cnbc.com ) Trump 2.0 would not play out like Trump 1.0 in markets ( ft.com ) China cuts short and long-term rates ( msn.com ) What we know 4 days after a software update brought down computer systems around the world ( msn.com ) UBS: «Joe Biden’s Withdrawal Resets the Contest» ( finews.asia ) Gavin Newsom backs Kamala Harris: No one better to prosecute case against Donald Trump ( thehill.com ) Extreme Disagreement Among Households About the Long-Term Inflation Outlook - Apollo Academy EMERGING MARKETS-Taiwan stocks skid as tech rout extends; Asian currencies range-bound ( yahoo.com ) Trump Disassociates Himself From 'Extreme' Project 2025 At Michigan Rally: 'I Don't Know What The Hell It Is' ( msn.com ) Trump says he knows nothing about ‘seriously extreme’ Project 2025 that mirrors many of his proposed policies ( msn.com ) All state Democratic party chairs endorse Harris | Reuters The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Corporate bond markets are flashing warning signs: Low-quality US corporate bond credit spreads have spiked to their widest since 2001. The ratio of CCC-rated spread to B-rated spread has DOUBLED in ~3 years. This difference is now even higher than the run up to the 2000 https://t.co/AmeUIZ4Lk9 " / X Britain Has a $5 Billion Bitcoin Stash. Reeves Can Unleash It. - Bloomberg J.D. Vance and the Death of Reaganite Foreign Policy - POLITICO Look beyond the Fed for second half gold price boom – The Armchair Trader Stellantis tells owners of over 24,000 hybrid minivans to park outdoors due to battery fire risk | AP News Build houses now, fix pollution later, Labour to tell developers ( thetimes.com ) Barcelona set to 'substantially' raise tourist tax for stopover cruise passengers | World News | Sky News

Cybersecurity platform Crowdstrike down worldwid e, many users logged out of systems Soft or hard landing ? >>> the recent macro data point to a slowdown in the U.S, Euro area, and China, the key question for investors is whether this is a temporary weakening, or the start of a more pronounced downturn.  History suggests the slowdown can turn into a sharp deterioration, relatively quickly, but the data at hand continue to point to a soft landing U.S Jobless claims hit highest level since August 2023 -- 243K Donald Trump Interview Transcript on currencies : "We have currency problems, as you know. Currency. When I was president, I fought very strongly and hard with President Xi and with Shinzo Abe, who’s a fantastic man—actually, you know the story there..." >>> watch out over coming weeks, as he meddles with FED (on interest rates policy) and USD comments China's Third Plenum does nothing to revive economy, observers say French lawmakers re-elect Macron's ally Braun-Pivet as speaker in blow to left J apan's government cut this year's growth forecast on Frida y as consumption took a hit from rising import costs due to a weak yen, highlighting the fragile nature of the economic recovery >>> #USDJPY in the grand scheme of 'carry trades' must hold the 155 USDJPY area , which it seems to have done this week Equity markets . NASDAQ bulls want 19500 to hold on weekly/medium-term basis and SPX 5500 area Microsoft outage latest: Chaos as internet down and flights grounded around the world - latest updates ( telegraph.co.uk ) Jobless claims hit highest level since August ( yahoo.com ) Japan cuts growth forecast, prime minister warns of weak-yen pain - Nikkei Asia Donald Trump's RNC speech could rattle Nvidia, TSMC, other tech stocks ( qz.com ) Trump Media merger sees SEC sue former DWAC chief Patrick Orlando ( qz.com ) French lawmakers re-elect Macron's ally Braun-Pivet as speaker in blow to left | Reuters China's Third Plenum does nothing to revive economy, observers say ( voanews.com ) Read the Transcript of Donald J. Trump’s Convention Speech - The New York Times ( nytimes.com ) Australia news live: media companies, banks and supermarkets hit by global outage linked to Windows PCs ( msn.com ) Crypto Market Awaits Next Stimulus ( finews.asia ) SPX500 needs to hold around 5500 clearly. NASDAQ