BoJ unchanged, focus for any major change remains for Q1 2024 >>> USDJPY could very well push higher and higher and test the BoJ resolve, eventually triggering intervention again nearer to 150JPY >>> next focus is UAW strike, Debt ceiling deadline 1st October, higher for longer now broadly accepted by all, but market need digesting it !, the risk is they keep rates higher for longer and we eventually get some sort of hardish landing
The UAW strike against automakers could be expanded unless there is major progress in contract negotiations by today
So Switzerland stopped hiking rates and the Bank of England followed suit. What do they have in common? Private sector vulnerabilities/Thread
UST 1.25% 2050, trading at 48cents, have we ever seen this ? suspect never. TLT closes at lowest price since April 11, 2011
UK says grounds to clear Microsoft's Activision deal
An Australian union alliance called off strikes at Chevron's two major local liquefied natural gas projects, agreeing to resolve disputes that had threatened to disrupt around 7% of global LNG supplies
Why the US banking crisis is prompting a fresh regulatory crackdown
Azerbaijan says it sees amnesty for Karabakh fighters who lay down arms
EV charging needs big improvements soon if the auto industry’s transition is going to work
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada must stand up for the international rules-based order after accusing Indian agents of orchestrating the murder of a Canadian Sikh leader
Eurozone September flash services PMI 48.4 vs 47.7 expected
Chinese EV startup Nio bets on car connectivity with new smartphone. Device allows drivers to control door locks and display searched routes
Markets :
In FX, USDCHF pushed through resistance on SNB hold. USD stays firm overall, watch out for USDJPY again
Bonds, duration, long-end, steeper, markets repricing/repriced the higher for longer another nudge up >>> fiscal position is pretty bleak in many places, so long-end reacted, as expected, definitely more risk going forward with some sort of 'premium' repriced by funds and investors to hold duration bonds, keep an eye on credit >>> markets have to hope that UST 10's at 4.50 is enough for now ! or we will get a potentially nasty credit event
Equity markets showing signs of breaking down technically, watch out Europe, huge levels around here in EUROstoxx50, DAX etc, NVDA >>> the trouble is many charts look similar to the ones below, massive ramp up in H1, topping out in Q3, what next ? - see charts below, it's all the same, which make is pretty binary and dangerous into quarter-end
Crude staying firm on still strong data, US claims yesterday were lower at 201K (exp 220K), EU NatGas prices lower finally as Ozzie strikes come to and end
GOLD, Silver actually holding up very well in all this..
Seems everyone is coming to our long held view/conclusion - high for longer, maybe much longer, when it's consensus it is when we should notice (plenty of time, unless something big breaks, bonds continue softer, fiscal irresponsibilities ! )
this will come at a good time to cushion markets in 2024..
The branded staple foods costing up to 910% more than their budget counterparts | UK News | Sky News
Isn't there any controls..??..how is this even possible..
Zelenskyy makes his case at the U.S. Capitol for more war aid as Republican support softens (cnbc.com) -- Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com)
The expansion in fam offices last couple of years, went a little to swiftly
EV charging needs big improvements in U.S. (cnbc.com) many parts not ready and it's got expensive of late, hence some issues popping up...
Good grief!
Strewth !
whishing you a super Friday and great weekend ahead
Team PVM
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