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Snow is back with a vengeance Powell's comments sent everything higher on Friday >>> Powell pushed back (didn't try very hard) against growing expectations of rate cuts in 1st half of 2024, so markets didn't buy it.. (10y UST down 15bps on the day)The risks of the Federal Reserve slowing the economy more than necessary have become "more balanced" with those of not moving interest rates high enough to control inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday, reaffirming the U.S. central bank's intent to be cautious but also offering fresh optimism on its progress so far "These attacks represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security. They have jeopardized the lives of international crews representing multiple countries around the world. We also have every reason to believe that these attacks, while launched by the Houthis in Yemen, are fully enabled by Iran." From one of the most accurate strategists on Wall Street, Hartnett: "...everyone thinks we rally into Valentine’s Day, everyone emotionally bullish, but still intellectually bearish and likely to stay that way until leadership changes" German Finance Minister calls for cuts in social spending. Lindner sets sight on welfare, international financial aid. Not yet’ convinced to suspend debt brake in 2024, he says EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine US warship and commercial vessels attacked in Red Sea, says Pentagon Meta’s AI chief doesn’t think AI super intelligence is coming anytime soon, and is skeptical on quantum computing Unearthed podcast: Why are central banks stocking up on gold? Markets : Huge November bond rally extended after Powell on Friday, 10's UST could well get down to 4% area, nearly there really, the big move already done >>> lifted all assets again >>> The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index closed 4.5% higher, its best month since May 1985 and 8th best return since inception of the index in 1976 USDollar slightly weaker, together with CROSSJPY'S, EURJPY took a decent hit, overall if yields remain 'soft-er' overall JPY could pick up a bit of ground vs USD and crosses GOLD hit a 2135$ high overnight Equity markets loving it all, Fed pricing into 2024 move big timein Novemver, as Core PCE (excludes Food/Energy), the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, moved down to 3.5%. This was the lowest level since April 2021, bears got hit and sent to hibernation for a while (again), the 60/40 portfolio back from the dead with Crude OIL - the only price that moved lower in November A LOT got price in rates last 4-6weeks.. Unearthed podcast: Why are central banks stocking up on gold? | Post by Unearthed Podcast | Gold Focus blog | World Gold Council Is Gold Finally Going to Leap Up? (finews.asia) COP28 Latest: Carbon Offset Market Faces Overhaul After Scandal (yahoo.com) U.S. Central Command on X: "Today, there were four attacks against three separate commercial vessels operating in international waters in the southern Red Sea. These three vessels are connected to 14 separate nations. The Arleigh-Burke Class destroyer USS CARNEY responded to the distress calls from the…" / X (twitter.com) Powell says Fed to move 'carefully' on interest rates, 'soft landing' taking shape (msn.com) Why 'Magnificent 7' stock mania is drawing comparisons to the dot-com bubble (yahoo.com) Investors beware: ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks starting to resemble ‘Nifty 50’ that got crushed in 1970s market crash - MarketWatch Ed Bradford on X: "Here is a good chart showing how these factors add up and match the Fed's balance sheet https://t.co/L4nSPTVs4O" / X (twitter.com) German Finance Minister Calls for Cuts in Social Spending: Funke - Bloomberg EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine | West Observer 3 commercial ships hit by missiles in Houthi attack in Red Sea, US warship downs 3 drones (msn.com) Israel-Hamas war live: Israel claims to have struck 200 ‘terror targets’ within Gaza Strip with hundreds of Palestinians killed (msn.com) Live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Putin orders Russian military to boost troop numbers by 170,000 | Russia | The Guardian Russia’s armed forces set to total 1.32 million after latest increase amid the continued invasion of Ukraine Ron Johnson: Russia-Ukraine war will end ‘in a negotiated settlement’ | The Hill IMF chief makes the case for carbon pricing at COP28 climate talks (cnbc.com) The 'punk rocker of Wall Street': Investors react to Charlie Munger's passing (yahoo.com) Meta AI chief Yann LeCun skeptical about AGI, quantum computing (cnbc.com) Mortgage rates drop again, but many buyers prefer to wait (yahoo.com) South Africa: The region where political violence is on the rise ahead of elections - BBC News Who is René Benko's Thai Partner? (finews.asia) US joins in other nations in swearing off coal power to clean the climate (qz.com) Hundreds of exhausted nurses quit Swiss hospital jobs each month - SWI swissinfo.ch USDJPY EURJPY 152?

On the first day of Christmas, my true love sent to me...A partridge in a pear tree Core PCE came in slightly softer, but broadly speaking as expected, Chicagp PMI surprised on topside, coming in at 55.8! (expected 44) and Initial claims 218K, with continuing claims hitting a high of 1.927mio >>> afte a huge rally in SPX500, it has been trading a range of 4520/80 last 2weeks, on big expectations of rates cuts in 2024, FED (march) and ECB all but priced in to cut (April), so next push/impulse will have to come from somewhere else (earnings, macro etc) Crude oil fell 3pct after OPEC+ announced further cuts in '24, bur few crakcs appeared, when OPEC announced that individual countries would announce their own cuts "The planet is tired of climate agreements that were not fulfilled" Brazil's President Lula urges world leaders to take "concrete actions" to fight climate change US ‘profoundly’ worried over Turkey’s financial links to Hamas Electric vehicles have nearly 80% more problems and are generally less reliable than cars propelled by conventional internal combustion engines/consumer report The average price of a used Tesla has declined 16 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $39,002 today (-43%) Markets : EURUSD bulls will have to consider whether the ECB is not about to cut before FED in'24 Huge rally in bonds, long-end dropped nearly 80bps, a lot of cuts got priced in for 2024 alread and thus pushed pretty much every assets higher, SPX rallied 9pct in Nov, USD dropped about 3%, Gold gained the same amount, SIlver, BTC gained 10% etc, look for some consolidation in December Crude dropped about 8% on the month, OPEC cut production but was mostly expected, U.S oil production rises to fresh record SPX500 closed at 4'567 yesterday- same level as 30th November 2021 ! Worse month, and suddenly....best month since 1985 for U.S bonds, up 4% or so in Nov We now have -120- bps of cuts priced in for both FED and ECB in2024, has moved 40bps this week alone !! Colliding with CRE’s maturity wall (ft.com) Known known - but ther you go, it is big nonetheless >>> A coming wave of refinancings in a market is certainly important to investors and bankers, of course. But the worst fears about maturity walls are that borrowers won’t be able to refi their debt at all, and those fears rarely bear out. Two to three years is a decent amount of time, so companies can usually refinance their debt, work with lenders to “extend and pretend”, or plan some light creditor-on-creditor violence liability management exercises. mainly macro: Fiscal failures: The UK Autumn Statement and the German debt brake India Small-Cap Stock Gauge Nears Key Hurdle on Seasonal Support - Bloomberg Commodities: Mixed performance as peak rates gather momentum | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Oil prices set to rise in 2024 after OPEC+ voluntary cuts (cnbc.com) whether we rally to this or not, worth looking into crude related socks again, we r very unlikely to go lower than say $70 WTI crude, and stay lower.. Jamie Dimon says to be prepared for recession (yahoo.com) Inheritance brings more wealth to billionaires than entrepreneurship (cnbc.com) Israel-Hamas war live: 14 Palestinians killed by Israeli strikes since ceasefire expired, says Gaza health ministry (theguardian.com) UN atomic chief backs nuclear power at COP28 as world reckons with proliferation (qz.com) Bill Gates warns the world is likely to overshoot 2 degrees of warming (cnbc.com) Sodium-ion batteries shaping up to be big technology breakthrough (cnbc.com) Thousands of fake Facebook accounts shut down by Meta were primed to polarize voters ahead of 2024 (qz.com) Next Immo-Tycoon der Bär ist bekannter Züri-Unternehmer - Inside Paradeplatz More executives go missing in China — this time linked to troubled shadow bank Zhongzhi (msn.com) Electric vehicles have almost 80% more problems than gas-powered ones, Consumer Reports says - CBS News Turkey Footballers Who Chased 250% Return Left With ‘Empty Bag’ - Bloomberg amaing that still so many people fall for this kind of crap (excuse my french) Home prices hit another record high in September despite higher mortgage rates (yahoo.com)

COP28 is on at the same time OPEC meets. China going all-in on clean tech Israel and Hamas reached a last-minute agreement on Thursday to extend their six-day ceasefire, granting negotiators additional time to finalize deals involving the exchange of hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners Saudi Arabia offers Iran investment to blunt Gaza War Fed’s Beige Book finds economy has slowed — and so has inflation - market has already priced this in with few cuts priced in 2024, March '24 in play now, data dependent etc French economy contracts in Q3, inflation eases further China scrambles to contain a looming shadow-Bank meltdown >> One of China’s largest investment banks has warned its analysts against making any bearish calls and to avoid showing off their lavish lifestyle, as Beijing continues to clamp down on well-paid bankers Sergio Ermotti’s second term of office as UBS Chairman has only just begun. But the bank’s chairman Colm Kelleher is already thinking about a succession plan Saudi Arabia offers Iran investment to blunt Gaza War China manufacturing PMI 49.4 in Nov The S&P500 is on pace for its 4th best month - of any month - in nearly 30y (1994) Markets : UST's a lot of talks of FED cutting next year >>> A LOT is already priced in, nearly 40-50% probability of a March cut alfrady priced in >>> 50 year record long-end move ending extremely inverted, classic from here would be a bull steepner (dec seasonals etc) , so if you been on this move, migh well be worth taking some P ! and await from December brings, PCE today and Powell speask tomorrow too.. >>> ECB also full ypriced to cut 25bps in April 2024 USDollar similarly, has done a fair bi of work in November, never hurts to take some profits on USD shorts established 6weeks ago, stay short CROSSJPY's, long some JPY goin ginto Dec and possible Jan YCC move from BoJ Equity markets, the huge momentum chasing move has done a lot of work, SPX500 4550/4600 area let alone 4700 are levels to ease-off and take some profts, not chase WTI Crude picking up - found a base again low-mid 70's - hard to think it goes lower >>> OPEX+ meeting to consider oil output cuts Copper and few other commodities had a good month too (thus also a sign that infaltion unlikely to disappear...so easely) -VIX on lows, worth a look as a hedge - if you looking for some more risk into Dec, it should move higher form here COP28: What to expect at UN climate talks (ft.com) What China’s Clean Energy Push Means for COP28 (bloomberg.com) >>> "Once complete, the renewables bases will total 455 gigawatts of wind turbines and solar panels. That’s more clean energy generation capacity than is currently available in any nation outside China, and almost the size of the entire power network — including coal plants and nuclear reactors — in India, the world’s third-largest system." Fed’s Beige Book finds economy has slowed — and so has inflation (msn.com) French economy contracts in Q3, inflation eases further (msn.com) US Treasury Market Has Best Month Since 1980s, Leading Stocks, Credit to Rally - Bloomberg China Scrambles to Contain a Looming Shadow-Bank Meltdown (msn.com) China Investment Bank Bans Bearish Research, Wealth Displays (yahoo.com) China manufacturing: tech can keep supply chain risks in check, expo panellists say (msn.com) Iran: Saudi Proposals Seek To Deescalate Tensions Amid Israel-Hamas War - Bloomberg UBS Chairman Already Thinking About Sergio Ermotti’s Successor (finews.asia) Elon Musk uses expletive to blast advertisers fleeing X over hate speech and antisemitism (msn.com) Bear's Benko Hole Even Bigger, KBs with Globus-Risk - Inside Paradeplatz Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger Dies (finews.asia) what and icon, great brief story of his life - IMHO, he was the man with the best one-liners - ever Cristiano Ronaldo faces $1bn lawsuit over Binance ads - BBC News What threatens Argentina under Javier Milei – Speaking of podcasts | Tages-Anzeiger (tagesanzeiger.ch) EURJPY - trending lower towards 150-153?

R.I.P Charlie, world lost an iconic man, amazing to hink that he didn't join Bershire until 1978, when he was 54years old ! >>> so many great tribute and some of his best quotes below Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent >>> Waller highlighted that the Fed may not be able to rely on improvement in the supply side to bring inflation down, suggesting slower economic growth would be needed to reduce inflation risks, ''if progress on inflation continues for several more months, it would warrant lower interest rates'' ..bit of a game changer, firming current sentiment out there... EU confirms vaccination lie: Corona vaccination has never prevented the transmissibility of the virus. This is what the licensing authority of the European Union is now saying afterwards The United Nations Climate Conference begins November 30 in Dubai, more than 70,000 delegates are expected to attend from almost 200 nations Used EV prices have dropped by one-third in a year as demand falls (good news for folks) Ackman sees a Fed cut coming in Q1 2024, higher risk of hard landing, Bill is long bonds now..remember he chopped his short ar 5%+ In what seems like a very interesting comment on the issues facing the Chinese economy, PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng warned that China's "ongoing economic transformation will be a long and difficult journey, but it’s a journey we must take." / THREAD A record high $8.3 Trillion is parked in global money market funds according to Goldman Sachs. $5.73 Trillion of this are U.S. based funds Finland to close all border crossings with Russia Hangseng breaking lower, lowest close since Nov 2022 - not a great sign! unless it's a monthend thing! “There’s a risk of a hard landing if Fed doesn’t cut rates pretty soon.” ECB QT ongoing, ECB balance-sheet now sub7trn Markets : SPX500 . complacency ? >> BofA deriv team: "With SPX 4550 and VIX 13 at the time of writing, US equities & equity vol appear to be (once again) going all-in on the soft-landing consensus. As noted in our macro outlook, however, it’s dangerous to be overly convicted in any thesis, as few have experienced today’s elevated macro uncertainty in their lifetimes.", if ever there was a time for a hedging trade it's around now 10y UST tech picture : below 100dma for 1st time since March, room to go towards the 4% level which is the 200dma UST long end drops 80bps in a month >>> (remember how market was 'bearish everything' 6weeks ago, ''overly bearish sentiment' , pointing out ''heavy shorts from CTA's in equity after 6-8weelks of selling...and Bonds, together with a far too concentrated long usd position...'' >>> all got chopped, back to MUCH more neutral levels now for December Precious metals, Gold mainly higher above $2K, making XPT way too cheap - relatively speaking/producion costs etc, and Silver not even started its long-term move higher (chart) #GOLD breaking higher and yet Gold miners (stocks #GTX) have done nothing/struggled in fact ! they can rally 50% to get back to 2020 highs, and a lot more if they ever were to get back to 2011 highs Fed's Waller expresses confidence that policy is in the right place to bring down inflation (cnbc.com) Used EV prices are falling fast | Fortune EU confirms vaccination lie: Corona vaccination has never prevented the transmissibility of the virus. This is what the licensing authority of the European Union is now saying afterwards (weltwoche.ch) Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 In what seems like a very interesting comment on the issues facing the Chinese economy, PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng warned that China's "ongoing economic transformation will be a long and difficult journey, but it’s a journey we must take." https://t.co/7JN85QkUOS" / X (twitter.com) Berkshire Hathaway exec Charlie Munger's folksy wit in 8 quotes (qz.com) R.I.P you absolute legendary man Compounding Quality on X: "Charlie Munger just passed away. He turned 99 years old. Here are 99 life and investing lessons as a tribute to Charlie: https://t.co/y14r9MVB6Y" / X (twitter.com) Charlie Munger Dies at 99, Warren Buffett Ally at Berkshire - Bloomberg BOJ policymaker says premature to debate exit from negative rate policy | Reuters UBS Chair Kelleher Warns Bubble Is Forming in Private Credit (yahoo.com) Australia's inflation rate now starts with a 4, allowing the RBA to hold fire on rates (theconversation.com) Bill Ackman Says US Economy Could Face Risk of 'Hard Landing' (businessinsider.com) Get Ready for Another Pointless United Nations Climate Conference | Energy Central Finland to close all border crossings with Russia - Baltic News Network (bnn-news.com) Extreme rainfall is increasing even more than expected as world warms | New Scientist Greek leader declines meeting with UK deputy PM after Rishi Sunak’s snub | Foreign policy | The Guardian they've clearly all lost their marbles! Silver

RBA governor Michele Bullock says central bank now dealing with 'homegrown' inflation challenge, and questions government's housing target >> sticky inflation Deloitte, KPMG ask US staff to avoid carrying their work phones to Hong Kong US oil and gas production set to break record in 2023 despite UN climate goals President Joe Biden has opened the first meeting of his supply chain resilience council by warning companies against price gouging and saying that his administration is working to lower costs for U.S. families Copper been grinding higher, Iron Ore prices at highest since June 2022 (low inventories) >>> lower USD and higher commodity prices in 2024.. UST >>> technically this 4.35-4.40% area is big, T-note has failed to beark 109-110 last 10 sessions >>> definitely a big lev SPX500 4550 area mentioned by BoA/Hartnett, will get harder to move higher from here, huge November momentum 'slowing down' clearly USDollar has done a fair bit too, nothing wrong with banking a bit of 'P' on recenbt usd shorts.. Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza extended two days; 11 more hostages freed | Reuters RBA governor Michele Bullock says central bank now dealing with 'homegrown' inflation challenge, and questions government's housing target (msn.com) Biden says he's helped lower inflation as he hosts first meeting of his new supply chain council (qz.com) Technical Analysis: US Dollar central to broad market sentiment (thearmchairtrader.com) General sentiment USD breaking down >>> IMHO, a small matter of a huge debt roll worth 8trn next year, either bond yields to their work higher or the USDollar weakens to price in some sort of risk into this huge equation ! Tesla sues Swedish agency as striking workers stop delivering license plates for its new vehicles | AP News Barclays Bank is reportedly axing up to 2,000 jobs as part of a $1.25 billion cost-cutting plan (yahoo.com) further axing within investment banking Deloitte, KPMG ask US staff to avoid carrying their work phones to Hong Kong, report claims (msn.com) US oil and gas production set to break record in 2023 despite UN climate goals | Fossil fuels | The Guardian

Coal : India plans to triple underground coal minind to meet enegry demand AND.. A total of 15 nations, including the UK, Canada and Germany, are stepping up to halt new coal-fired power stations and clamp down on polluting existing plants ahead of the COP28 summit... (both FT article) We have just seen the biggest 2 week inflow to equity funds since February 2022/BoA The Beijing Stock Exchange has de facto implemented a new policy that prevents major shareholders of companies listed on its bourse from selling stock, worried that such sales could douse a long-desired rally, three people familiar with the matter said, that's one way to lift the market! DB cuts German 2024 GDP forecast by a whopping 0.5ppts to -0.2% due to the budget crisis following the Constitutional Court hearing Bankers servicing one of the world’s biggest ESG debt markets are now actively seeking legal protections to guard against the potential greenwashing allegations that may be ahead >> '''so their thinking is, we had pure motives, so we shoudl not have to suffer the consequences of our bad risk management''? Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggests that interest-rate cuts are unlikely for the “foreseeable future” Nasdaq has now listed 0DTE Options (Zero Days to Expiry) for ETFS tracking silver, gold, oil, natural gas, and treasuries Warren Buffett-Backed BYD Hits 6M EVs, Puts Pressure On Tesla In China (shares on June 2021 lows, competitite out there) The Swiss National Bank is evaluating whether to raise banks’ minimum reserve requirements, President Thomas Jordan told Neue Zuercher Zeitung Markets : GOLD, steady as she goes (higher prices making XPT look stuper cheap too) Copper 'breaking up' technically VIX hit the lowest level since January 2020 - supporting risk Bonds : market fading this rally ? 10's UST yield support 4.35% ...>>> $7.6 trillion of US government debt will mature in the next year USD 'softer' overall still Equity markets had a huge rally, lower vols/delta management/systematic buying etc, from here on it should be less powerful (MS pointing out the delta management becoming less friendly into year-end, those looking for decent timing to put a #hedge on it's probably not a bad time to think about it now #timeforahedgingtrade Exclusive: Beijing bourse tells 'major shareholders' to refrain from selling, sources say | Reuters Israel-Hamas war: Hamas releases 17 more hostages in Gaza, including 4-year-old Abigail Edan as part of deal | AP News Gold hits six-month high as traders bet interest rates have peaked - latest updates (telegraph.co.uk) What does the OPEC quota disagreement mean for Brent crude prices? (thearmchairtrader.com) Bankers Seek Legal Cover After Backing $1.5 Trillion of ESG Debt (yahoo.com) NO NO NO! Sam Altman's back. Here's who's on the new OpenAI board and who's out (cnbc.com) Sacking, revolt, return: how crisis at OpenAI over Sam Altman unfolded | OpenAI | The Guardian Anti-Crypto European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s Son “Lost Almost All” Investing in Crypto (yahoo.com) World facing ‘hellish’ 3C of climate heating, UN warns before Cop28 | Climate crisis | The Guardian How the Swiss economy is faring: the third-quarter check-up - SWI swissinfo.ch Benko is looking for buyers for his yacht, globe gets caught up in storm - Inside Paradeplatz Signa unit files for insolvency as crisis at Benko's empire deepens -Spiegel | Reuters Julius Bär bank details shaky loan position - SWI swissinfo.ch .... how was this allowed to happen...from a risk management point of view... India plans to triple underground coal mining to meet energy demand (ft.com) and FT again, A total of 15 nations, including the UK, Canada and Germany, are stepping up to halt new coal-fired power stations and clamp down on polluting existing plants ahead of the COP28 summit... World’s largest iceberg is on the move for first time in 37 years | The Hill Warren Buffett-Backed BYD Hits 6M EVs, Puts Pressure On Tesla In China (msn.com)

And we have 2bn people voting in 2024 - biggest ever democratic year German budget issues, France's rating in check next week, Dublin, Dutch election, Finland and Spain.... pretty hectic week in Europe, most countries are having their political consensus tested! ... and most are in a pretty weak fiscal stance, cant spend spend anymore, choices have to be made Taiwan's opposition parties, which seek closer China ties, registered separate presidential candidates on Friday after a dramatic split, potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power New Zealand gets two deputy PMs after marathon coalition talks, Spain’s Left-Wing Government Faces Internal Splits — and a Trumpian Opposition Finland warns Russia it is prepared to shut all border points over migrant pressure The borrowing restrictions known as the “debt brake” are baked into Germany’s constitution but can be temporarily set aside in the case of natural disasters or emergencies beyond the control of the govt JPN inflation came in at 2.9% YoY in October, slightly lower than the 3% expected UK Families £1,900 worse off by the next election despite Hunt’s giveaways BOE's Pill: We cannot afford to ease off tight monetary policy Markets : GOLD : has actually been best safe heaven for a while, and less volatile than 10y UST's, but can we break above $2k properly ? see video below if you want to feel very bullish ! FXland, CROSSJPY's essentially firmer, with a hint of GBP strength, as economic data comes in a little better than expected (from low market expectations!) UST's a little softer, yields back up, 10's UST yields held 4.35 key level, and 4.47 again Equity markets enjoying their Thanksgiving Israel and Hamas start first truce in Gaza war - Nikkei Asia Japanese inflation picks up to 2.9% in October (rte.ie) Scholz promises new budget plans ‘very quickly’ amid German spending crisis – POLITICO Germany’s debt-brake drama is poison for Deutschland Inc and for Europe’s monetary union (telegraph.co.uk) 34 arrests made after rioting in Dublin following school knife attack - The Irish News Greece's struggling main opposition party hit by new defections (zawya.com) Austrian far-right politician reported for overt racism in regional parliament – EURACTIV.com Finland to close all but one Russia border crossing to stop asylum seekers | Finland | The Guardian Le Pen says Dutch can decide their EU future as ‘Brits did’ – EURACTIV.com Friday briefing: What now after Geert Wilders’ surprise success in the Dutch election | | The Guardian US forces attacked 4 times in Iraq, Syria within hours | Reuters China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud | Reuters China Tells WHO Known Germs Are Causing Surge in Child Pneumonia - Caixin Global Tavi Costa: Gold is About to Explode Higher Through a Triple Top - Palisades Gold Radio (palisadesradio.ca) Exploring the world of lithium-ion batteries and their components (thearmchairtrader.com) Benko's Dream Villa, Bear's Nightmare Crash - Inside Paradeplatz Chinese EV car maker BYD launches its Han sedan in the Middle East (cnbc.com) Families £1,900 worse off by the next election despite Hunt’s giveaways (msn.com) and Jeremy told everyone they were cutting taxes.. New Zealand gets two deputy PMs after marathon coalition talks | New Zealand politics | The Guardian Spain’s Left-Wing Government Faces Internal Splits — and a Trumpian Opposition (msn.com) Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From @martinwolf_ ‘s column in the @FT. The bottom line is that the fiscal position of too many countries is not well positioned for the end of the “low for long” regime for global interest rates. This results in a further loss of policy flexibility at a time when monetary policy… https://t.co/Iu5sdcxXrS" / X (twitter.com) Quite, fiscally trapped, tough decision required going forward, Germany just showed how hard it is going to be (can always break the rules of course.. Exclusive-Nvidia Delays Launch of New China-Focused AI Chip -Sources (usnews.com) Scientists baffled after extremely high-energy particle detected falling to Earth | Science & Tech News | Sky News

EU gives France an ‘F’ grade on spending plans. High deficit puts Paris in breach of EU’s budget rules. Belgium, Finland and Croatia also singled out France Manuf PMI 42.6 German parliament cancels 2024 budget vote amid political crisis...Scholz promises new budget plan, amid spending crisis OPEC meeting pushed back to 30th Nov A Hostage/Prisoner exchange will happen tomorrow at the earliest US mortgage rates dropped sharply, capping the biggest four-week slide in nearly a year and spurring a fresh round of applications to purchase homes Washington blinks as debt costs begin to bite. Increased spending on entitlements and interest could snowball in the coming decades, putting pressure on Washington to act earlier to rein in annual deficits >>> “If interest rates basically stay at their current levels, interest will be the second-largest government program in two years,” Italy PM Meloni could be forgiven for feeling any schadenfreude this week while looking on at Germany’s unfolding budget debacle. A string of fiscal wins for Rome has just coincided w/a crisis rocking Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Berlin after a calamitous court judgment cast doubt on financing plans for Europe’s biggest economy Jobless claims: Initial jobless claims fell to 209k for the week of 18 November, reversing most of the recent rise since mid-October and The final November report of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment suggests that it could take some time for inflation narratives to improve Finland to close all but one Russia border crossing to stop asylum seekers S&P global to update assessment of France rating next week Markets : Many mnarket participants now rising estimates for equity markets into year-end, SPX 4700-4800, low vol, seasonal bid, mainly driven by the Mag7, which are now 30% of SPX Crude a little lower as OPEC meeting got pushed back to next week Equity markets, high valuations not forcing anyone out, so far anyway, lower VIX-vols pushes more systematic buying USDollar struggling, seems market happy to sell rallies/reduce long held long positions, if 10's UST was to break sub 4.35% decisively, market will have another go and sell more USD Israel-Hamas war live: no ceasefire or hostage release before Friday, Israeli and US officials say (msn.com) Javier Blas on X: "The OPEC+ delay -- a few notes: 1) At the heart, OPEC is fighting about who pumps how much. Nigeria and Angola, which have struggled to meet their quota, refuse an official lower level for 2024. Leaving OPEC is real, but remote, possibility for Angola; but no for Nigeria | 1/7" / X (twitter.com) Scholz promises new budget plans ‘very quickly’ amid German spending crisis – POLITICO Germany financial sector facing dark clouds, Bundesbank warns | Reuters In November 2023, the business climate in France and the employment climate have darkened again - Informations rapides - 297 | Insee EU gives France an ‘F’ grade on spending plans – POLITICO Even deficit hawks doubt Washington can curb debt - POLITICO Meloni’s Italy Tastes Schadenfreude Over German Fiscal Fiasco - Bloomberg US Mortgage Rates Slide Sharply, Reinvigorating Housing Demand - Bloomberg Finland to close all but one Russia border crossing to stop asylum seekers | Finland | The Guardian Far-right leader Geert Wilders wins Dutch election – POLITICO

Israel-Hamas war : four-day ceasefire and release of 50 hostages held in Gaza agreed FOMC Minutes: The Nov meeting minutes was very similar to the last, ''continue to keep options open for further rate hikes and emphasized rates would remain restrictive for some time until inflation is clearly moving down sustainably to target''. Unlike the Sep minutes, there was no indication that another rate hike was likely, QT to continue BoE's Bailey : 'Far too early' to talk about rate cuts RBA (in the minutes) said it lifted its key interest rate this month to reduce the risk of a “larger monetary policy response” in coming months, given the persistence of inflation and the stronger than expected performance of the economy OpenAI Altman, briefly to MSFT, and back, what a saga The Mag 7, have been magnificent YTD - that's for sure, worth noting that by now they provide the highest concentration risk of any period in the SPX500 history >>> Hedge funds have bet over $200bn on the "magnificent seven". Crowding is now the most extreme ever, according to Goldman Sachs (short stock intrerest remains near the lowest levels in history:GS) >>> CTAs purchased $153 billion of global equities over the last 10 days, the highest amount ever recorded NVDA delivers on big earnings, stock has rallied 250% in 2023 though Novo rations Ozempic starter kits amid surge in use for weight loss UK autum statement, government throwing a few goodies, mini tax cuts Markets : 30% of a Fed cut in March '24 priced in and a total of about 90+bps priced in for the whole of 2024, market has about a total of 1% of cuts priced in for ECB too USD index closed below its 200dma for the 1st time since Aug, and snapped back overnight, particularly USDJPY as JPN governmetn slahed its view on the economy, 1st such move in abotu 10months GOLD over $2K makes Platinum look super cheap #XPT U.S equity markets - tech update below from Saxo Uranium +$80 for 1st time in more than 15 years Commodity prices to equity ratio, are at historical lows Crude made a low last week and gradually moving higher again - after inventory build data, SPX refill likely and likely extension of prod cuts from OPEC+ UST 10's holding around key support in yield terms 4.35%, the likes of GS expect U.S fiscal discipline unlikely, and this steepening yield curve ahead in 2024 Technical analysis Nasdaq 100 SP 500 bullish thanksgiving market | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Hedge fund herding is worse than ever (ft.com) Fed United on Cautious Approach to Future Interest-Rate Hikes, Minutes Show - Bloomberg 20-Year Treasury Auction Was Solid. It’s a Plus for Stocks. (msn.com) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Following a strong 20-year UST auction, yields didn't drop dramatically; why? One of the reasons might be that leverage funds have been reducing their short bond position dramatically in the past few weeks and are now the least short since July. ⬇️ https://t.co/hgrrcmXDBo" / X (twitter.com) Israel-Hamas war live: four-day ceasefire and release of 50 hostages held in Gaza agreed (msn.com) Nvidia (NVDA) Q3 earnings report 2024 (cnbc.com) Uranium Prices Top $80 a Pound on Renewed Demand, Disrupted Supplies - Bloomberg PLATINUM Documentary: Mining, Science and History - YouTube intersting docu Treasury Department on X: "Today, @USTreasury announced the largest enforcement action in our history against Binance, the world’s largest virtual currency exchange. This action is a result of Binance’s egregious violations of U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions laws. https://t.co/V4IM0b16H3" / X (twitter.com) 'Far too early' to talk about rate cuts -Bank of England's Bailey | Reuters November interest rate rise was needed to avoid risk of larger future increases, RBA says | Reserve Bank of Australia | The Guardian X loses ad sales, faces blowback after Musk antisemitism controversy (yahoo.com) Sam Altman ‘looking forward’ to return to OpenAI; Jeremy Hunt expected to cut taxes – business live (msn.com) 'We've halved inflation' and other claims by the PM checked - BBC News German train drivers union rules out strikes over Christmas - The Local German Budget Crisis Deepens With Freeze on New Spending - Bloomberg Search is on for pipeline leak after as much as 1.1 million gallons of oil sullies Gulf of Mexico (qz.com) Novo rations Ozempic starter kits amid surge in use for weight loss | Reuters Autumn statement: tax cuts could boost UK economy, but businesses also need more certainty (theconversation.com) XPT vs XAU - similar production costs, too cheap WTI crude

The right-wing, self-described “anarcho capitalist” Javier Milei has been elected into power in Argentina Thanksgiving week ahead, NVDA reports tomorrow, FOMC minutes, durable goods, services and manuf PMI's + the usual raft of CB speakers >>> CNH decetn pick up, weaker USDollar overall still 2-3months lows by now..OPEC weekend 'extention of cuts' likely A deal for Hamas to release hostages taken during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel may be the closest yet and would require a multiday pause in the fighting in Gaza, US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer said Moody's announced Friday it had affirmed Italy's credit rating at Baa3, and upgraded the country's outlook to "stable" from "negative," citing its significant economic strengths Why the Godfather of A.I. Fears What He’s Built. Geoffrey Hinton has spent a lifetime teaching computers to learn. Now he worries that artificial brains are better than ours Deutsche Bank will take a $350 million loss on a New York City office building they bought in 2014 Microsoft's Satya Nadella: Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past. Using some jargon, r* has risen/M.Zandi Bayer, an iconic company in troubles, shares 12y lows "This is a social earthquake" says Ikea CEO - Sweden's huge gang violence problem Pimco makes bold yen buying move, forecasting Bank of Japan monetary tightening Markets : Price action changes mood and more >>> same time last year, after a rough bear market, everyone was pretty much all-in on the recession for 2023, now after a pretty decent equity rally, everyone is all-.in on soft landing.. USDollar weaker still, positioning way too long, watch 10y UST yields if they break sub 4.35% area, could add to USD downside. #USDJPY picture perfect - chart below Equity markets loving weaker usd, softer vols, weaker Oil etc, seasonal factors helping sentiment too still UST 10y yields support 4.35% Crude WTI held low 70's ahead fo OPEC+ meeting, which will most likely hold on to production cuts BTC loving the election result in Argentina Israel-Hamas War in Gaza: Latest Update on Israeli Hostages - Bloomberg Iran denies involvement in Red Sea ship seizure by Yemen's Houthis | Reuters Javier Milei: Right-wing libertarian wins Argentina election and is congratulated by Donald Trump (msn.com) Quite a character ! Who is Javier Milei? Argentina’s new far-right president ‘El Loco’ takes the stage | Javier Milei | The Guardian Pimco Is Buying Yen to Prepare for Tighter BOJ Monetary Policy - Bloomberg Bank of Japan should shun ultra-loose policy to prop yen, Deutsche Bank says (cnbc.com) Why Warren Buffett's portfolio moves signal 'caution' for investors (yahoo.com) Moody's affirms Italy's credit rating and upgrades outlook (yahoo.com) Citibank Has Started Mass Layoffs: Report (msn.com) European shares muted after robust week; Bayer tumbles to 12-year low (msn.com) German government rows over how to plug €60 billion funding gap - The Local Mark Zandi on X: "The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past. The tweet thread that follows lays out the case why, but this is a big reason why the economy has avoided recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. Using some jargon, r* has risen. https://t.co/tUUfZLYkzh" / X (twitter.com) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "JUST IN: Deutsche Bank will take a $350 million loss on a New York City office building they bought in 2014. Deutsche Bank is reportedly selling the office after their anchor tenant, Bank of America, left. In 2014, Deutsche Bank bought the building for $500 million. The office… https://t.co/OQgFMkznuq" / X (twitter.com) Why the Godfather of A.I. Fears What He’s Built | The New Yorker Emmett Shear named new CEO of OpenAI by board - The Verge Beef burgers are back on the menu as demand for vegan food plunges (msn.com) Macron in Switzerland: ‘you may not know it, but you are also Europeans’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Sugar prices are rising worldwide after bad weather tied to El Nino damaged crops in Asia (qz.com) Spain's re-elected PM Sanchez keep senior ministers in new cabinet (msn.com) The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden (ft.com) Betrayed: The Truth About Brexit | Byline TV pro or against, it's an interesting watch USDJPY - picture perfect fotr 145JPY initially

BOJ will debate easy-policy exit when inflation nears target - Ueda >>> More below : BOJ's Ueda: BOJ does not have specific plan yet on how it will sell ETFs, he adds that ' weak JPY has positives and negatives' perhaps reminded folks of a 2way risk (market very short JPY/long carry..) Market pricing : after a few low print on inflation and macro data, weaker Oil, Mr Market has now already priced in : 100bps of cut from ECB in 2024 , similar UK and U.S >>> this week : "We went from anticipating the end of hikes, to now anticipating the beginning of cuts.” MS, which is quite aggressive in this view (not as aggressive as UBS!), is looking for 1st FED cut in June 2024, -4- cuts next year and -8- cuts in 2025! Federal Reserve, Board Governors Cook, Kugler and Jefferson said "the size of the balance sheet could decline considerably further before reserves reach the level consistent with the ample reserves operating framework" Walmart as CFO says October trends have made them "pause and rethink the health of the consumer." Eric Rosengren says soft landing is now his base case: "This is about as good an outcome as the Federal Reserve could be expecting, which is a falling inflation rate, an unemployment rate that's a little below 4%" and an economy that's not growing too fast Germany raised VATin restaurants back up to 19% (from 7%.. Iran told US it did not want Israel-Hamas war to escalate WSJ-U.S. Executives get no reassurance from Xi on tougher China Business Environment. Chinese leader makes no mention of trade and investment at dinner with business leaders China battery-grade lithium carbonate prices slide for th 21st day staight and hit a 2y low ECB’s Lagarde: Increasing signs that the global economy is fragmenting into competing blocs Markets : USDJPY - could also be soon introuble, beware short JPY positioning - chart below + crossjpy's lower on lower yields, rate cuts expectations globally, Ueda added a bit of 2way risk in his comments this monring, positioning is heavy short JPY (carry trades etc) UST 10's major test for bond bulls ahead, in yield terms 4.35% was the previous top Oct 2022 and last month again, before we headed for 5% Equity markets enjoying the low yields, rate cuts expectations into 2024 and seasonal support from funds rebalancing NASDAQ100 - time to add/buy more ??? nope - not the time to be greedy-chart, not making necessarilly a case for shorting it, but #timeforahedgingtrade from here GOLD nicely up on these lower rtates expectations AND JPY trength WTI crude low 70's you'd think Biden will be refulling the SPR - and fast BOJ will debate easy-policy exit when inflation nears target - Ueda | Reuters BOJ’s Ueda Says Weak Yen Isn’t Only Negative for Japan’s Economy - Bloomberg More from BOJ's Ueda: BOJ does not have specific plan yet on how it will sell ETFs | Forexlive Investors turn bullish on bonds, rates lower in 2024: BofA survey (yahoo.com) investors 'never been this confident bond yields are headed lower' BoA - nice but we may have to start to worry soon when it's so consensus... Forbes on X: ""It is going to be an extraordinarily dangerous year." @SteveForbesCEO spoke about what he's forecasting in 2024 at the #ForbesCIO Next Summit. https://t.co/eZHOkkkPBN https://t.co/5LtNF3M3JK" / X (twitter.com) Former Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren: October CPI 'about as good of an outcome' as the Fed could expect | Watch (msn.com) Israel Latest: Netanyahu Says Gaza Hospital Hid Command Center (yahoo.com) Contrarian 2024 Forecast: Record Household Liquidity Points To Solid Growth & More Fed (thecarsonreport.com) Or indeed the growing market sentiment currently ... Walmart Jolts Wall Street With Warning About Risks of Deflation - Bloomberg Germany to raise VAT in restaurants back up to 19 percent - The Local Blackstone borrows to boost lending power of $52bn credit fund (ft.com) Bear has sunk 450 million with Italo boutique Kairos - Inside Paradeplatz Tanking Alibaba drags Hong Kong as markets rally fades (yahoo.com) Bellweather stock not playing up Walmart (WMT) earnings Q3 2024 (cnbc.com) Senior Tory says Suella Braverman wants to act like Putin with hardline alternative Rwanda proposals – UK politics live (theguardian.com) Dutch election promises new era and shake-up in politics (msn.com) Rebuilding Trust in Expertise by Diane Coyle - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) Lagarde: Increasing signs that the global economy is fragmenting (cnbc.com) NASDAQ100 - time to add/buy more ??? nope - not the time to be greedy USDJPY - could also be soon introuble, beware short JPY positioning

Soft landing is now 'the' absolute consensus U.S retail sales declined (slightly) in October, as student debt payment resumed ? >>> ''After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales fell 1.6% over the last year, the 12th consecutive YoY decline'' >>> market momentum is here, the buzz/consensus is 'goldilocks sticks, cooling inflation and a strong economy for long enough to prop up market into year-end'' Biden, Xi meeting, some nice soothing words and promises to work on improving communication again, and fighting Fentanyl production! Xi tells US firms China ready to be partner and friend, Biden calling Xi a 'dictator' might not have been the best use of words !!?.. still Xi confirmed that China does not seek spheres of influence and will not fight a cold war or a hot war wiht anyone U.S senate bill on extending debt ceiling : no spending cuts... Taiwan : A joint ticket is forming in Taiwan that may defeat the pro-independence DPP Berlin : opposition leader Merz confirms nuclear operator offered to turn reactor back on for cheap power WSJ-Inflation is falling faster than expected across advanced economies, marking a turning point in central banks’ two-year battle against surging prices UK Bond demand smashes record as investors clamor for yield (£93bn orders for £7bn bonds) German Court deals blow to Scholz govt with budget ruling Fed official (Daly) warns against calling time on rate-rising cycle too soon. US central bank must not claim victory over inflation prematurely, says San Francisco Fed president About those calling for a 'hard landing' in the U.S, which is fair to talk about with nearly 125% of debt/GDP ratio, seems almost inevitable eventually, the real question is whether the hard landing comes through the real economy or the USdollar (or both) - not a call, but part of ongoing discussion with clients on the 'what if's' Markets : Inflation headlines came in softer confirming what everyone wanted to hear, very fast shift to 'goldilocks, soft landing consensus' >>> and now many gunning for a 'March '24 cut form Fed'... might be a little premature...core CPI is still 4% 10's UST support 4.2-4.5% in yield terms, core is still 4% USDollar took an early hit post U.S CPI, for the likes of EURUSD, it stays bullish while above 1.0780-1.0830' area pon weekly basis SPX500, QQ etc, from oversold to overbought (RSI's etc) within 2 weeks, massive HF/CTA short-covering done, classic stuff, consolidation doesn't mean down, trade new higher range, seasonal factors should helpf keep a friendly prie action, bar any new news! The Global Fight Against Inflation Has Turned a Corner (msn.com) ‘He’s a dictator’: Biden claims progress in Xi meeting, but deep fault lines remain - POLITICO Xi tells US firms China ready to be partner and friend | Reuters China’s Xi Says U.S. Should Get New Pandas Soon | TIME all good ! US retail sales, producer prices register October fall (yahoo.com) Fed official warns against calling time on rate-rising cycle too soon (ft.com) Fed's Goolsbee: 'A way to go' on inflation despite 'progress' (yahoo.com) German Court deals blow to Scholz govt with budget ruling (msn.com) Explainer: How budget ruling will affect German finances, coalition | Reuters UK Pulls in Record £93 Billion Orders for Conventional Bond Sale - Bloomberg Invesco Says It's Time to Enjoy the Spoils of Stock-Market Momentum - Bloomberg Taiwan’s opposition parties to work together for January election | Elections News | Al Jazeera Microsoft reveals Maia AI processor and Cobalt Arm-based chip (cnbc.com) Government shutdown bill live updates: Funding clears Senate vote, heads to Biden (nbcnews.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 According to Bloomberg, "Private equity firms that amassed more than $1.5 trillion of assets in China in just two decades are now struggling to offload once-promising investments they were counting on for hefty returns." https://t.co/AyyUghIQ1Q" / X (twitter.com) Mark Nelson on X: "BERLIN: OPPOSITION LEADER MERZ CONFIRMS NUCLEAR OPERATOR OFFERED TO TURN REACTOR BACK ON FOR CHEAP POWER The offer was rejected by Economy Minister Robert Habeck despite his insistence that German industry would be lost without power available at exactly the price suggested by… https://t.co/lZQf1TxsDx" / X (twitter.com) US, EU Seek Steel Deal Amid Stalemate - Bloomberg Rwanda Supreme Court ruling LIVE: Rattled Sunak unveils last-ditch plan to save flagship deportation policy (msn.com) wasted time and money, everyone knew it was just a rediculous plan