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  • Writer's pictureStéphan
    • Nov 29, 2023
    • 3 min read

10y UST sub 4.35% / #USD softer still, risk loving Fed Waller's & Bowman's comments / #GDX

  • R.I.P Charlie, world lost an iconic man, amazing to hink that he didn't join Bershire until 1978, when he was 54years old ! >>> so many great tribute and some of his best quotes below

  • Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Tuesday he is “increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent >>> Waller highlighted that the Fed may not be able to rely on improvement in the supply side to bring inflation down, suggesting slower economic growth would be needed to reduce inflation risks, ''if progress on inflation continues for several more months, it would warrant lower interest rates'' ..bit of a game changer, firming current sentiment out there...

  • EU confirms vaccination lie: Corona vaccination has never prevented the transmissibility of the virus. This is what the licensing authority of the European Union is now saying afterwards

  • The United Nations Climate Conference begins November 30 in Dubai, more than 70,000 delegates are expected to attend from almost 200 nations

  • Used EV prices have dropped by one-third in a year as demand falls (good news for folks)

  • Ackman sees a Fed cut coming in Q1 2024, higher risk of hard landing, Bill is long bonds now..remember he chopped his short ar 5%+

  • In what seems like a very interesting comment on the issues facing the Chinese economy, PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng warned that China's "ongoing economic transformation will be a long and difficult journey, but it’s a journey we must take." / THREAD

  • A record high $8.3 Trillion is parked in global money market funds according to Goldman Sachs. $5.73 Trillion of this are U.S. based funds

  • Finland to close all border crossings with Russia

  • Hangseng breaking lower, lowest close since Nov 2022 - not a great sign! unless it's a monthend thing!

  • “There’s a risk of a hard landing if Fed doesn’t cut rates pretty soon.”

  • ECB QT ongoing, ECB balance-sheet now sub7trn

 

Markets :


  • SPX500 . complacency ? >> BofA deriv team: "With SPX 4550 and VIX 13 at the time of writing, US equities & equity vol appear to be (once again) going all-in on the soft-landing consensus. As noted in our macro outlook, however, it’s dangerous to be overly convicted in any thesis, as few have experienced today’s elevated macro uncertainty in their lifetimes.", if ever there was a time for a hedging trade it's around now

  • 10y UST tech picture : below 100dma for 1st time since March, room to go towards the 4% level which is the 200dma

  • UST long end drops 80bps in a month >>> (remember how market was 'bearish everything' 6weeks ago, ''overly bearish sentiment' , pointing out ''heavy shorts from CTA's in equity after 6-8weelks of selling...and Bonds, together with a far too concentrated long usd position...'' >>> all got chopped, back to MUCH more neutral levels now for December

  • Precious metals, Gold mainly higher above $2K, making XPT way too cheap - relatively speaking/producion costs etc, and Silver not even started its long-term move higher (chart)

  • #GOLD breaking higher and yet Gold miners (stocks #GTX) have done nothing/struggled in fact ! they can rally 50% to get back to 2020 highs, and a lot more if they ever were to get back to 2011 highs


 






R.I.P you absolute legendary man










Silver


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