Site Search

Week ahead : FED meeting, easy 'unch' decision this time, everyone expects them to cut hard this year (140bps priced in), the FED dop plots have 3 cuts for the year, next few meetings will be more debated >>> however we have the U.S treasury refunding announcement too on Wednesday, which will outline the compositions of the issuance going forward, this event has moved markets before and markets will be looking for hints on QT too. BoE on Thursday unchanged, and a huge week of earnings, MSFT today, AAPL and AMZN on Thursday "We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver a first cut in March and 5 cuts in total in 2024. The main reason is that progress on inflation has already surpassed the threshold the FOMC has given" --GS (slightly under what the markets been pricing all along) China put the brakes on short-selling as it seeks to shore up stock markets. Strategic investors won’t be allowed to lend out shares during agreed lock-up periods starting today, regulators said. In real estate, Guangzhou eased buying curbs on larger housing units as part of efforts to stem falling prices World Court stops short of Gaza ceasefire order for Israel The US became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in less than a decade, drastically rewriting global energy trade/Thread Norway defends deep-sea mining, says it may help to break China and Russia’s rare earths stronghold AfD narrowly loses first election since mass deportation meeting revelations Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid Markets : The top 13 stocks have driven the whole of the S&P’s YTD upside with the top five contributing ~70% >>> concentration of risk, nothing new, big week ahead though, ''massive & most powerful short-cycle rally ever'' Commods/Saxo Thread below FXland all fairly quiet, CROSSJPY's pushed a little higher again, EURCHF cannot hold even .9400+, GBPCHF fails 1.10+ too, slightly disappointing for the bull sin those pairs, EURO should weaken on weak macro data though and dovish ECB Equity markets powered ahead in January, inflows in Mag 7's + short-covering from HF's made it a pretty fierce cocktail of event, markets were able to ignore any geo-political, supply chain disruption events around the world, awaiting the big boys reporting now >>> Earnings Calendar | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com) The busiest and most crucial week for fourth-quarter earnings is here. These 5 companies will do the heavy lifting. (msn.com) Federal Reserve Board - Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet ECB President Lagarde finds herself under pressure | Notayesmanseconomics's Blog (wordpress.com) Ole S Hansen on X: "COT on #commodities (wk to Jan 23) showed continued net selling despite broad price gains. It left several contracts exposed to a China stimulus and US GDP squeeze. Selling was concentrated in metals and grains with several short positions reaching multi-year highs (copper,… https://t.co/MOMlpuZ1Y6" / X (twitter.com) World Court stops short of Gaza ceasefire order for Israel | Reuters Three U.S. troops killed, up to 34 injured in Jordan drone strike linked to Iran (cnbc.com) Stephen Stapczynski on X: "THE US LNG MIRACLE 🇺🇸🚢 This is the story of how the US became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in less than a decade, drastically rewriting global energy trade Thread below 🧵👇 https://t.co/Aw4x15YEVy" / X (twitter.com) Biden's natural gas export pause adds to mixed climate record (qz.com) Jack Ma's $50M BABA Buy Signals 'Buy China!' | Seeking Alpha US, China to hold meeting on fentanyl precursor chemicals this week | Reuters Media layoffs: Google, Paramount, Disney, and others commit to job cuts in 2024 (yahoo.com) A projection in Finland says Alexander Stubb wins the first round of the presidential election to set up a Feb 11 runoff (qz.com) Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid (ft.com) Austria: Approaching from the Half-Right | Tages-Anzeiger (tagesanzeiger.ch) AfD narrowly loses first election since mass deportation meeting revelations | Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) | The Guardian Giorgia Meloni’s not-so-scary right-wing government (economist.com) Norway defends deep-sea mining as a necessary step into the unknown (cnbc.com) SPX500 looks a bit overdone but we've been here before - 20% of index report this week if ever there is to be a trigger for a correction

Time to head to the mountains this weekend! The FTC is aiming to unravel the complex and secretive corporate relationships in the top AI companies out there in a new inquiry. Orders have been sent to Alphabet, Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI that will, as Chair Lina Khan said, "shed light on whether investments and partnerships pursued by dominant companies risk distorting innovation and undermining fair competition." Christine Lagarde said Thursday she was proud to lead the institution, after her performance was criticized in a union-run survey, added that ‘disinflation process is at work’ and hints at summer rate cut (>>> with risk of an earlier move, in March..if data worsen) BTFP up to $168bn, increases from here are not arbitrage-driven Lost Gustav Klimt painting found after almost 100 years to be auctioned. The painting, titled Portrait of Fraulein Lieser, is one of the last works by the world-renowned artist, and was last seen in public in 1925 UKR/RU latest defence intelligence update on the situation U.S. is now the first country in the world to cross over $1 trillion in interest payments on its government debt Markets : About 140bps of cuts priced in for Fed in 2024, and ECB priced in for 140bps (up about 10bps from 2days ago) EURO a little softer vs everything after 'dovish' ECB, #EURGBP might have room to run lower #GBPCHF 1.1200+ Equity markets have powered ahead, mainly you know who, quite a few announcements of layoffs amongst tech firms, 5pct of staff here and there, nothing dramatic but.. Intel and TSLA knocked short-term sentiment yesterday + perhaps the FTC inquiry could worry 'current momentum' Crude highest level in 2months FTC orders AI companies to dish on investments, partnerships and meetings (yahoo.com) Borrowing from Fed's emergency lending program rose to a fresh record, just before Fed raised the facility’s interest rate to stop financial institutions from taking advantage and arbitraging on its attractive terms. Demand for Bank Term Funding Program rose $6.3bn to an ATH of $167.8bn. Borrowing has jumped by >$50bn since mid-November after program’s rate increasingly fell below the rate at which institutions could earn money by parking reserves at Fed. Any increase from here is not arbitrage-driven. (BBG) ECB's Lagarde responds to scathing staff survey: 'I'm very proud and honored to lead the institution' (msn.com) BOJ saw need in December for debate on future rate hike pace - minutes - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Putin Sends US Signal on Ukraine Talks, Sensing Advantage in War (yahoo.com) Defence Intelligence – communicating probability - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) China’s Economy: Cassandra vs. Pollyanna | China Books Review Very good from G.Magnus Yellen: strong US GDP growth signals productivity gains, not inflation (msn.com) Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say | Reuters UK consumer confidence rises to best score in two years | Retail Week (retail-week.com) Baroness Michelle Mone assets worth £75m frozen by a court order (msn.com) It's a start ! Intel sinks after first quarter outlook disappoints (msn.com) Back to a bit of reality, stock had ramped up 75% since October! Consumers in Germany 'spending less' as recession drags on (thelocal.de) Lost Gustav Klimt painting found after almost 100 years to be auctioned | World News | Sky News EURGBP - through 0.8500 area might awaken the market ! AND/OR GBPCHF 1.12+ EURUSD - with a dovish ECB -should be heading towards 1.0500 area

Fed to allow emergency bank lending program expire on March 11 and the FED raised the rate on loans to banks issued under an emergency lending program launched last year, after borrowing surged in recent weeks as institutions took advantage of the attractive financing terms Alibaba co-founders buy more than $200 million worth of shares, sending stock up (there will be more similar moves elsewhere, no doubt).. part of 'trying to improve sentiment' in addition to all the state interventions.. Qube Research & Technologies Ltd. has amassed a short bet of more than $1 billion against German companies amid a downturn in global demand that’s slowing Europe’s biggest economy., maybe not best idea to tell everyone ? There are now 7 companies in the Trillion Dollar Club again. Meta has passed the $1tn mark, and Microsoft is now worth $3tn for the 1st time ever Musk : Tesla says "our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023.", Tesla Q4 revenues increased 3.5% YoY, its slowest growth rate since Q2 2020. Gross margins fell to 17.6% from 23.8% a year ago, largely a result of the deep price cuts on its vehicles >>> China’s EV players ramp up competition with Tesla using new tech China Financial News, a PBOC-backed media outlet, said Monday's State Council meeting indicated that more practical policies are coming The ECB has asked some banks to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs UAW’s Shawn Fain says Trump ‘doesn’t care about the American worker’ as union backs Biden for re-election Markets : TLT closed at its lowest since Dec 4th and is now again firmly below its 200dma, $61 billion 5y UST auction no bueno: 2 bps tail, highest dealer takedown since Sept 2022 (per BMO) China Eq #HSI #CHINA50 etc . stay bullish, contrarian trade supported by enormous PBOC action, if CNH strengthens somewhat (or does not weaken on higher UST yields) it will confirm capital inflows EURstoxx50 hitting 23y highs at 4'575, still far away from the 2000 highs nearer to 5'250 U.S. markets hitting news highs>>> weak 5Y UST auction, TSLA weaker, if you want to look for a few signs of potential weakness outside the Mag 7's there are plenty, but so far it didn't matter! >>> facts, RSI, overbought, % of stocks above 200dmas etc Copper, Iron Ore and other commods generally a little higher (China action..) US PCE Preview: March rate cut bets could pick up again | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary:  Market is seemingly focused on resilient growth in the US economy, and has pared March rate cut expectations for the Fed. While growth metrics remain mixed, focus will likely return to disinflation with core PCE this week pointing towards a move to 2% inflation by mid-2024. Soft core PCE below 0.2% MoM for December will likely increase the odds of a March rate cut again, pushing yields and dollar lower. Fed to allow emergency bank lending program expire on March 11 | Reuters Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Board announces the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) will cease making new loans as scheduled on March 11 Fed Raises Rate on Emergency Loan Program to Stop Arbitrage (yahoo.com) UAW endorses Biden, Fain says Trump 'doesn’t care about the American worker' | Fortune Michael Pettis on X: "1/3 Brazil-sized Guangdong, China's biggest province by GDP, is not one of the country's most overly-indebted provinces, but this article by Caixin nonetheless gives some very useful information about the way debt has surged. https://t.co/eqQmCpLrTA" / X (twitter.com) China is ramping up stimulus to boost market confidence — but is it enough? (msn.com) It's way oversold and unowned ECB Asks Some Lenders To Monitor Social Media For Early Signs Of Bank Runs -sources (globalbankingandfinance.com) That's one strange article.. DHedge Fund Qube Built a $1 Billion Short Bet Against Top German Companies | Financial Post U.S. firms prefer India over China for supply chain needs despite risks (cnbc.com) Alibaba stock up after Jack Ma and Joe Tsai buy shares (cnbc.com) Tesla (TSLA) 2023 Q4 earnings (cnbc.com) >> China’s EV players ramp up competition with Tesla using new technology (cnbc.com) German auto suppliers struggle as Chinese EV makers rise | Fortune Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 Interesting Caixin analysis on China’s new rules on share buybacks for listed companies. For me the key impact of encouraging the use of share buybacks to support the stock market is its systemic (self-reinforcing) impact on overall volatility. https://t.co/CB6CaQbZ3Q" / X (twitter.com) China says it's working to de-escalate tensions in the Red Sea that have upended global trade (qz.com) China's gold output, consumption rise in 2023-Xinhua (news.cn) Tottenham Hotspur billionaire Joe Lewis pleads guilty to insider trading charges in US | UK News | Sky News - why do insider trade when a billionnaire ?...lots of war stories from while back on the FX world... ‘A tribal clique’: Lagarde denounces economists at Davos – Euractiv Not great to be too critical of the troops like this... Italy’s Meloni Picks Fight With Stellantis on Car Production (yahoo.com) Social Security was a key issue in the fight for New Hampshire. Expect that to continue until November. (yahoo.com) At Lindt&Sprüngli, "insider" sales continue fiercely – Inside Paradeplatz

China to unveil steps to deepen financial cooperation with Hong Kong - BBG >>> could they force HKMA to get closer to PBOC policies ? definitely worth keeping an eye on ! #HKD China : The 0.5% RRR cut will release RMB1 trillion in liquidity. PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng mentioned support to property developers' cashflows during the PBoC press conference Trump cruises to New Hampshire win >>> Trump will push protectionist ideas, he likes debt, so rates up and USD up, markets could start early to price in a Trump presidency The Turkish parliament voted Tuesday to approve Sweden’s NATO membership bid, bringing the Nordic country one step closer to joining US asks China to urge Iran to curb Red Sea attacks by Houthis -FT Japanese exports hit record in 2023 (..super weak currency) >>> watch JGB's, which are a little bit on the move again this morning, supporting JPY Saxo report -Silver and copper in focus after recent declines Sweden inches toward NATO "The Fed put may be back. The Fed put exists when the market expects a rapid monetary policy response to any sign of economic weakness, but it has never, in our view, reflected any true love of the Fed for equities and other risky assets:" Standard Chartered's Steve Englander French business activity falls at steepest pace in four months - PMI, while in Germany, we got the lowest output price inflation in 3 years!.. >>> Mme Lagarde will soon have to change her tune...and cut rates perhaps quicker than many think, the bit of good news though is that growth (ex France and Germany) has returned within EU after nearly 6months of decline Markets : Contrarians will like what they see in Chinese markets, Nasdaq Golde Dragon index #HXC and #HSI all in play, China50 etc FXland fairly quiet, though USDJPY doesn't seem to like life 148+, keep an eye on JGB's, which are selling off a little again this morning, supporting JPY Equity markets love pretty much everything that they see! new highs in few places again, Netflix beat after hours too Copper, Crude, few commods a little firmer overall China snowball knock-ins fuel futures sell-off  - Risk.net Re-hedging of China’s popular snowball structured products in the futures market is said to have contributed to the ongoing rout in the country’s equity markets, according to market participants.....many of these structures, the clients lost all/most of the capital >>> huge pain taken by markets >>> time for a contrarian trade!! China Slams EU’s ‘Unfair’ Electric Vehicle Probe - Bloomberg PBOC Will Cut RRR for Banks in Early February, Governor Says (yahoo.com) China to double down on support for Hong Kong as nation’s international financial hub for bonds, green finance, minister says at AFF | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/2 The 26 Chinese provinces and municipalities that have reported GDP growth targets so far this year represent nearly 90% of China's GDP. By my calculation, the weighted average GDP growth target for these 26 provinces and municipalities is 5.2%. https://t.co/O1fJAgWgpV" / X (twitter.com) French business activity falls at steepest pace in four months - PMI (yahoo.com) Sweden got one step closer to joining NATO (qz.com) Germany's far-right AfD could face legal challenges (msn.com) Silver and copper in focus after recent declines | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Markets could start to price in a Trump presidency | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Trump defeats Haley in New Hampshire GOP primary (cnn.com) Japanese exports hit record in 2023 on weak yen - Nikkei Asia Netflix Stock Jumps 8% as Paid Sharing, Pricing Changes Drive Q4 Revenue Beat (msn.com) Replace Sunak as PM or face decade of decline under Starmer (telegraph.co.uk) US asks China to urge Iran to curb Red Sea attacks by Houthis -FT | Reuters Red Sea attacks reveal supply chain fragility - FreightWaves Bridging the way: the benefits of gradual decarbonisation - Financial Times - Partner Content by ENI (ft.com) China50 - it's been so hammered since 2021 - only a correction could mean 20-30pct rally from these lows

China’s Premier Li Qiang orders authorities to attract long-term capital to stabilise stock market after trillion-dollar rout >>> by printing first..the PBOC just added $150B to its balance sheet in December, this brings the total increase to almost $850B just in the last 5 months and then China 'mulls stock market rescue package backed by $278bn'' - (Chinese and HK stocks have lost a combine $6.3 trillion from the 2021 peak valuations!) BoJ's Ueda: Policy change is possible even when there is no update to quarterly outlook >>> overall still looking for a move in Q1, most likely March, might be delayed after their financial new year in April $162bn of UST auctions this week, $60bn 2y today, 61bn 5ytom and 41bn of 7y Thursday >> should give market a good feel for appetite out there for govt debt Christine Lagarde makes a poor central banker, ECB staff say .‘Mario Draghi was there for the ECB while the ECB seems to be there for Christine Lagarde,’ one staff member writes in major survey. BTP's premium over Germany has fallen to 152bps, lowest in 2years (was closer to 100bps in summer 2021, before rates pushed higher globally "Our analysis indicates a labor market returning to pre-pandemic norms, best characterized as a somewhat tight labor market that does not pose an inflation problem" --GS USA now up to 64% of the global stock market/MSCI world Fishing ban to protect dolphins in Bay of Biscay comes into effect Intermarché confirmed Unilever is to take the French retailer to court in the latest row in the country between grocer and supplier over prices >>> you can't mock the products of others ?...will be interesting to see what the law says...the 'law' says you are supposed to play fairly ExxonMobil is suing its own shareholders over a proposal aimed at reducing emissions "Geopolitical fragmentation is one of the reasons we see persistent inflation pressures - and policy rates staying above pre-pandemic levels...We expect deeper fragmentation, heightened competition and less cooperation between major nations in 2024:" BlackRock Markets : UST yields slightly higher ahead of UST auctions and key data >>> 4.2% in 10s UST key level technically USD not doing much, tiny JPY reaction to the Ueda headline above, broadly speaking all pretty quiet in FXland, overall our focus remain on 'sign of CHF weakness' going forward. USDCNH a little softer on PBOC action Equity markets pushing higher, DOW hit 38K for 1st time. NIKKEI very close to hitting new all time highs that were set some 35 years ago, meanwhile chinese stocks have hit their lowest valuation relative to US stocks in history, is it time ? #HSI >>> going shortly into full U.S earnings season Zero Day Options (ODTE) volume surged last week to 49% of all options volume, just shy of an all-time high BTC sub 40K >>> as expected...those ETF's were a classic opportunity for a ramp-up in price ahead of the event, highs seen on ETF launch.. Dow closes above 38,000 for 1st time, setting record high (msn.com) Treasury yields fractionally higher ahead of key data releases (cnbc.com) US, British forces carry out new strikes in Yemen | Reuters Yemen strikes live: US and UK launch new strikes against Houthi targets - BBC News Bank of Japan retains its ultra-loose policy, trims core inflation forecast (cnbc.com) British Manager Chris Hohn Scores A $13 Billion 2023 Windfall As Ken Griffin Remains Hedge Fund GOAT (forbes.com) China Buys Near-Record $40 Billion of Chip Gear to Beat US Curbs (yahoo.com) China’s Premier Li Qiang orders authorities to attract long-term capital to stabilise stock market after trillion-dollar rout (msn.com) China strategist warns of deflation and rock-bottom consumer confidence (cnbc.com) hence interventions Finland does not fear Russia, says presidential frontrunner (ft.com) Trump's proposed 10% tariff plan would shake up every asset class: Strategist (cnbc.com) ExxonMobil sues shareholders over a proposal to cut emissions (qz.com) Christine Lagarde makes a poor central banker, ECB staff say  – POLITICO FRANKFURT — On the global stage, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde still exudes the air of an international rockstar of finance, but back home her records just won’t sell Thousands of Companies Are Monitoring Every Facebook User, According to a Study - Vigilant News Everything you need to know about your electricity bill going up on February 1, 2024 | economie.gouv.fr >>> via subsidies, the French government covered about 35% of electricity cost for families an small businesses.. Energy bills in Great Britain forecast to fall by 16% in April | Energy bills | The Guardian Good news ! Fishing ban to protect dolphins in Bay of Biscay comes into effect (lemonde.fr) Really...!!? Unilever takes Intermarché to court in France (msn.com) Hand Seng 50 - time for a little contrarian trade ? #HK50

Our hot chocolate is getting very expensive ! cocoa prices on 46y highs Week ahead : BoJ tonight (market expectations are for 'unch', but BoJ does like to surprise, overall view though, they will move in March 2024), EZ flash Dec PMI and BoC on Wed, German IFO and ECB rate decision on Thursday + Q4 U.S GDP and finally U.S Dec core PCE on Friday Ron DeSantis dropped out of the 2024 US presidential race and endorsed Donald Trump. He left before Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, where a CNN poll had him at 6% to 50% for Trump and 39% for Nikki Haley. Haley is getting support from Wall Street, with Stanley Druckenmiller, Henry Kravis, Ken Langone and Cliff Asness planning a Jan. 30 fundraiser. An internal investigation has found that Joe Biden’s administration is failing to track foreign ownership of U.S. farmland, after it was recently discovered that the second-largest foreign landowner is a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) member Red Sea 'scary' for ships' crews, says captain. Marsh says insuring a container ship is up 70 times since the Red Sea troubles began European manufacturers and retailers face ‘chaotic’ period after Red Sea attacks >>> Upward Pressure on Goods Inflation US corporate bond markets are “on fire” as companies have sold a record $150bn of debt since the start of this month, the busiest opening to the year for more than three decade-FT (rushing before rates head higher?) JP Morgan reaffirms its year-end 4200 price prediction for the S&P 500 >>> the lowest S&P target for 2024 EU seeks ‘consequences’ for Israel over opposition to Palestinian statehood. Bloc’s foreign ministers step up pressure on Netanyahu to reverse his resistance to two-state solution FT - This isn’t your father’s S&P 500. Don’t worry about valuations'', that's some headline! In Germany, the AfD is now officially leading the polls >>> Weekend of mass protests held across Germany to decry far-right AfD >>> ''the party will push for a Brexit-style referendum on membership of the Eu if it comes to power, said its leader Alice Weidel, ''if reforming the EU isn't possible, we should let the people decide'' The Biden administration discharged another $4.9 billion in student loan debt for more than 73,600 borrowers, the Education Department announced Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Risks Long-Term Destabilization in China Markets : SPX5600 breaking that double top at 4'800, it is now 12% higher than when the FED started hiking rates in March 2022 >>> a lot of research coming out looking at chasing laggers, small caps, Europe, healthcare and so on, and why not indeed! >>> fair to say the contrarian trades have been battered so far, HSI back to 15K which is where it was at the handover in 1997...while Mag 7's rallying hard, MSCI China back to near levels not seen since 2009, and NIKKEI back up to 34year highs "0dte options volumes have surged to a new high, averaging 1.8mn contracts over the past 5 days and 49% of total options volumes" --Citi 10's UST 4.12, beware if bonds sell-off gathers momentum above 4.20% yield area Red Sea 'scary' for ships' crews, says captain - BBC News Netanyahu rejects Hamas conditions for Israeli hostage deal | Reuters EU seeks ‘consequences’ for Israel over opposition to Palestinian statehood (ft.com) Weekend of mass protests held across Germany to decry far-right AfD (yahoo.com) German far-right leader hails Brexit as ‘model for Germany’ (ft.com) BREAKING: German train drivers' union calls six-day strike (thelocal.de) Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 Bloomberg says that "China’s citizens are finally traveling in force again, and their rush to spend may further pressure the weakening yuan," by putting downward pressure on its current account But it is not nearly that simple. https://t.co/D6aH2nGjrj via @markets" / X (twitter.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 "Wei suggested that Chinese policymakers should urgently inject more liquidity into the economy to avoid a deflation-debt spiral. But for the lending channel to work effectively, China must reform its state-owned banks to ensure..." https://t.co/cCYTu1doQD" / X (twitter.com) >>>> Cover Story: Can China Pull Its Economy Out of a Deflationary Nosedive? Xi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Risks Long-Term Destabilization in China (stratfor.com) Barchart on X: "JP Morgan reaffirms its year-end 4200 price prediction for the S&P 500 $SPX https://t.co/ulQB8cWzbd" / X (twitter.com) Is America overpriced? (ft.com) >>> There is an historically large premium on the S&P 500, when compared to markets in the rest of the world. That reflects strong outperformance in the past decade, but can that last? Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong evaluate the emerging markets vs US trade. Also, we go long insurance, and short polyamory Haley says Trump uses nicknames because ‘he feels insecure’ | The Hill UPDATE 7-Ron DeSantis ends 2024 campaign, endorses Trump over Haley as New Hampshire vote looms (yahoo.com) Biden administration to forgive additional $4.9 billion in student debt (yahoo.com) 'National Security Risk': Investigation Reveals Biden Admin Failed to Track Foreign Ownership of U.S. Farmland (breitbart.com) Are Healthcare Stocks Poised for a Comeback? (finews.asia) Australia: 'Golden visa' scheme for wealthy investors axed - BBC News Designed to attract foreign business, it was cut in an immigration overhaul after the government found it was "delivering poor economic outcomes" EURCHF needs 0.9550+ to gets the bulls interested

Keep warm! U.S inflation at say 3% isn't a problem at all ! what is the problem, is the market expectations that we are heading to 2% fast together with the 5 or 6 cuts priced in for 2024 >>> The late 2023 persistent bid for duration is obviously no more as we start pricing higher inflation and term risk Japan's core inflation slows for 2nd month, taking pressure of BoJ to hurry into changing policy >>> JPY reaction overnight, 149 USDJPY highs U.S Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2022 UK/EU Banks brace for new multibillion £ mis-selling saga: This time it's car loans UK chancellor, Jeremy Hunt has given strong hints that he wants to cut taxes in the spring budget The United States is drowning OPEC in oil. Shale country keeps putting pressure on the Saudi-led cartel TSMC sees more delays at its Arizona chips plant — and again blames a shortage of skilled workers Benjamin Netanyahu rejects calls from US for Palestinian state after Gaza conflict Assets in money market funds and CDs hit $8.8 Trillion China's exports to Kazakhstan reached a new all-time high in Dec 2023, how!? >>> and China banning bad news and short selling, rather than address issues.. >>> State-owned Citic Securities Co. has stopped lending stocks to individual investors and raised the requirements for institutional clients earlier this week after so-called window guidance from regulators Nato warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years. Top official urges civilians as well as governments to prepare for life-changing conflict and potential conscription (pushing defense spending to new highs for longer!) "AI has to be, almost, a human right, to have access to AI, and we need to have the governance around AI," says Salesforce CEO EURCHF - above 0.9550 area and long-term players may start to unwind long CHF positions >> very little reasons to be short eurchf, usdchf, gbpchf down here !! au contraire (chart below, though I'm sure you can do a better one :-) - just to be things in perspective Markets : Mag 7's, NVDA, AMD flavour of the month, year so far! pushing NASDAQ through new highs, AAPL got an upgrade from BofA, MSFT new highs etc SPX500 4'800 test again, looking at NASDAQ for clues?.. FXland : a bout of CHF weakness, which should continue... on the back of SNB/Jordan and seasonal (lack of hedging flows), JPY been weak on slightly softer JPN inflation and higher UST rates path (pushing back on early cut(s) UST10's 4.14, bond bulls keeping an eye on 4.2% as a key resistance (in yield terms), and eventual risk of any other equity outside the Mag 7's! and USDollar 30-Year Treasury Yield jumps to 4.37%, its highest level since early December Crude steady/slightly higher >> ME tensions vs US flooding markets Nick Timiraos on X: "Based on the Dec CPI and PPI, core PCE is projected to have been mild last month. The modelers who forecast this expect core PCE rose 0.17% from Nov. This would lower the 12-month rate to 2.9%. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates would fall to 1.5% and 1.9%, respectively https://t.co/X8Yp5sMfUP" / X (twitter.com) Carl Quintanilla on X: "B of A: “.. Following a year of investors bracing for a recession .. every type of US investor holds more cash and less equities. .. We see some inklings of warming sentiment toward equities .. but are far from levels of euphoria that would mark the end of a bull market.”… https://t.co/49ABNZy7WT" / X (twitter.com) Jobless claims fall to lowest level since 2022, while CEO exits hit new high (msn.com) Red Sea shipping attacks add to inflation risks - Oxford Economics World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024 | World Economic Forum (weforum.org) Quite a lot of super interesting folks talking, thankfully no 'message', just a nice stream of very high profile speakers We don't want to see an AI 'Hiroshima,' Salesforce CEO warns (msn.com) Can WEF break the impasse on global governance of AI? - SWI swissinfo.ch China’s Biggest Brokerage Restricts Short Sales After Stock Rout (yahoo.com) Japan's core inflation slows for 2nd month, takes pressure off BOJ | Reuters Chancellor Jeremy Hunt hints at further tax cuts (msn.com) The most infamous bond trade | Saxo Group (home.saxo) US Congress passes bill to avert government shutdown, sends it to Biden | Reuters North Korea tested underwater nuclear weapons system: KCNA - Nikkei Asia Benjamin Netanyahu rejects calls from US for Palestinian state after Gaza conflict | World News | Sky News Robin Brooks on X: "China's exports to Kazakhstan reached a new all-time high in December 2023. This isn't rocket science. It's not like Kazakhstan has gone into a massive boom. These goods are obviously getting trans-shipped to Russia and help keep Putin's war economy going... https://t.co/JUDyOeIGA2" / X (twitter.com) Nato warns of all-out war with Russia in next 20 years (telegraph.co.uk) The United States is drowning OPEC in oil (qz.com) TSMC sees delays at Arizona chips plant, blames skilled worker shortage (qz.com) ‘It’s the industry’s dirty secret’: why fashion’s oversupply problem is an environmental disaster | Fashion industry | The Guardian Electric cars at risk of breaking down as cold weather impairs batteries | ITV News nothing new, but EV drivers don't want the cold snap to last, how ironic Banks Brace for New Multibillion-Pound Misselling Saga: This Time It's Car Loans | Financial Post The Financial Conduct Authority has reached out to around a dozen banks about their auto lending practices, according to people familiar with the matter. The moves come as the regulator said last week it had begun an investigation into how some of these products were sold — a push that analysts say could land banks with a bill of as much as £10 billion ($13 billion). For decades, lenders including Barclays Plc, Lloyds Banking Group Plc and the UK arm of Spain’s Banco Santander SA have made big money from funding car purchases. Now, the FCA is looking at whether customers were told about the amounts of commission paid to the dealerships EURCHF - above 0.9550 area and long-term players may start to unwind long CHF positions >> very little reasons to be short eurchf, usdchf, gbpchf down here !! au contraire

WEF : Lagarde, Bostic (in the U.S though), SNB's Jordan up later again (will he confirm yesterday's comments that weakened CHF?), Pakistan PM said he might leave early now (airstrikes with Iran) Lagarde has blamed markets for holding up the ECB’s efforts to tame inflation. Bets on aggressive rate cuts are a distraction that complicates the battle to control runaway price rises, the European Central Bank president warned OpenAI’s Sam Altman says human-level AI is coming but will change world much less than we think Pakistan (WSJ): Carried out airstrikes in Iranian territory killing Pakistani militants there; the action was tit-for-tat retaliation after Iran hit a Jihadi group in Pakistan on Tuesday Tesla slashed car prices again — this time in Europe. Consumers around the world increasingly do not want to pay full price for Teslas, once the leader of the EV market The Hang Seng Index's P/E is now below the Nasdaq's P/B. Those two valuation ratios should not even be anywhere close one another/Thread Google CEO tells employees to expect more job cuts this year Markets : Yields up a little again yesterday, ont eh back of UK's inflation data and US retail sales, UST 10's 4.10-4.20 big level on way up, if we go through this, we are in for more risk-off into month-end, further correcting moves from Nov >>> Fed March cut, now down to 50% probability USDollar follows bonds, and eventually so do equities, broadly speaking >>> January tend to correct moves from Q4, particularly when too consensus and now Central Bank's trying to walk some of those early rate cuts priced in SPX500 4800 double top, corrective activity down to key 4'650 key med-term levels #EURCHF #GBPCHF #USDCHF on their way up, correction higher, gone too far in 2023, overdone, now the CB probably ok with it, given low inflation in CH, decent probabilities looking at actual levels, CB stance, inflation and a decent carry particularly vs USD if you are a $ bull Swiss Franc Sold After Jordan Hints SNB Shift Underway (poundsterlinglive.com) Maersk says winter weather, Red Sea disruption cause congestion (msn.com) Israel's president and the OpenAI CEO will take part in Davos on Day 3 of the World Economic Forum (yahoo.com) Russia-Ukraine war live: Red Sea grain exports ‘approaching pre-war levels’ (msn.com) Lagarde blames markets for ECB’s failure to get inflation under control (msn.com) Exclusive: India could ease China investment curbs if border stays calm | Reuters Retail sales December 2023: Sales rose 0.6% in December, topping expectations for holiday (cnbc.com) David Ingles on X: "You've probably heard Chinese stocks are cheap. This chart takes that to a whole new level. The Hang Seng Index's P/E is now below the Nasdaq's P/B. Those two valuation ratios should not even be anywhere close one another. Pretty wild. https://t.co/3jjYksSdOw" / X (twitter.com) Here Are All The Prominent Conservatives Telling DeSantis To Drop Out (forbes.com) Tesla cuts prices in Europe after doing so in China (qz.com) Good for consumers, not #TSLA share price Google CEO tells employees to expect more job cuts in 2024 - The Verge OpenAI's Sam Altman: AGI coming but is less impactful than we think (cnbc.com) Apple (AAPL) to Sell Watches Without Blood Oxygen Feature - Bloomberg Is Kim Jong Un Preparing for War? - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea Not very cheery I know Plug Power Plunges On $1 Billion Stock Offering Plan (msn.com) Bottom line, many of these smaller companies cannot borrow at these rates, thus will issue equity and dilute shareholders, this stock, just an example, is down 80pct form the highs, small caps etc 53 years of CS, yesterday Big Farewell Party at the Uetlihof – Inside Paradeplatz Bye bye Richie! HSI - Hang Seng - are you feeling brave ?

As expected.. and after ECB guys on Monday, Governor Waller’s prepared remarks were not as dovish as the current market pricing on rate cuts implied. He stated that the Fed can lower interest rates ‘methodically and carefully’ this year if inflation continues moderating. “Methodically and carefully” could be considered as quarterly rather than every meeting China GDP 5.2% up slightly from 4.9% >>> markets didn't really trust this data and sent local shares and HSI down 3% again and China's population records second straight annual decline. Pace accelerates as dwindling workforce creates vexing policy challenges UK inflation rose to 4% in Dec, expectations were all for a slightly softer data >> Gilt yields spike as markets push back on the expectations of 6 rate cuts in 2024 -Houthis to be reclassified as terrorist group - US, Pakistan says children killed in Iranian strike Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to be deposed in Texas facial recognition case Hyundai is offering Americans cash to buy its EVs. Buyers of three Hyundai models will get $7,500 in cash bonuses until Jan. 31 (if you can't sell them, discount them, good thing is, it will bring down prices!..) CSI : Chinese Stocks fell to a new 5y low today of 3260 and have now declined about 45% since the high in mid Feb 2021 As discussed recently, this was from the BofA FMS in Dec and looks worryingly wrong : An All-Time High 91% of Fund Managers expect lower short-term interest rates during the next 12 months Markets : Bond markets still the lead, and most important 'ingredient' for risk - still >> MOVE index (interest volatility) is key as ever for 2024, note both bonds adn equity softer, together with higher USDollar >>> 5y5y has moved back up 20bps in Jan >> if the Ferd wanted to correct the strong disinflation trend from late last year, they are succeeding SPX500 double top 4'800 - the 'shorts' can work against that level and equivalent USDollar higher into 2nd Jan, on softer bonds/eq/light riskoff/corrective action from the move since Oct/Nov 2023 Beware reversal/corrective action in 2nd half of January! >>> both ECB and Waller (and higher UK inflation) pushing back on too early and too hasty cuts that are priced in for 2024 Nick Timiraos on X: "Fed governor Chris Waller: Rate cuts are coming into view but the process should be “carefully calibrated and not rushed.” As long as growth is fine, “I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly” as the Fed has in past cutting cycles. https://t.co/Noyjq02VeM" / X (twitter.com) Treasury yields edge higher as investors monitor data and Fed comments (cnbc.com) Pakistan says children killed in Iranian strike - BBC News Houthis to be reclassified as terrorist group - US (rte.ie) China's 2023 GDP shows patchy economic recovery, raises case for stimulus | Reuters China's population records second straight annual decline - Nikkei Asia UK Conservative Party deputy chairmen resign after Rwanda law vote | Reuters Sunak in further politic trouble, could this bring this general election a little quicker than expected ? Apple tops Samsung global smartphone sales for first time (qz.com) Meta CEO Zuckerberg to be deposed in Texas facial recognition case (cnbc.com) Light Science Technologies lights up growth and revenue (thearmchairtrader.com) Hyundai is offering Americans $7,500 to buy its EVs (qz.com) NASDAQ - corrective action to 16'250 area ? seems far away, but just to show the extent of the move since Nov dovish, disinflationary talks from CB and huge easing of financil conditions DAX - plenty of room to correct to...15'750 area ?

Rates Spark: The ECB pushes back, Chief Economist Philip Lane initiated the renewed pushback already over the weekend, when he cautioned against recalibrating policy too early, ECB's Holzman ''we shouldn't count on rate cuts at all in 2024'..Fed's Waller speaks later on today (he was one of the key cause of markets turning dovish in November).. BofA FM survey : ''a record 91% of investors expect short-term rates to be lower in the next 12months, from 87% in Dec'' and that is the big risk >> 150bps etc a lot priced in already IMF's Gopinath ''exuberance has made the soft landing challenge harder Iowa Caucus results: Trump wins majority, Ramaswamy drops out Houthi militants hit a US-owned container vessel with a missile in the Gulf of Aden. Gibraltar Eagle, carrying steel products, suffered limited damage. Washington warned its merchant ships to avoid the area. PM Rishi Sunak told Parliament that the UK wants to reduce tensions and its air strikes are “self-defense.” Ra'anana: One dead and 12 injured in terror attack near Tel Aviv, Israel's emergency services say War of words after Taiwan election highlights the intractable divide over the island's fate Africa’s biggest oil refinery has begun production in Nigeria after a yearslong wait 'Both the number and percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q4 2023 are above their 5-year and 10-year averages.' "The era of the peace dividend is over." UK's Grant Shapps urges "all allied and democratic nations" to ensure their defence budgets are growing, warning of growing conflict over the next five years Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed in Yemen Maersk hopes international interventions, naval presence will allow Red Sea transit to return Markets : EURCHF : 9y ago, it fell out of bed, as SNB walked away from the 1.2000 floor SPX500 4800 double top for now, stay cautious USDollar getting some traction USDJPY initially over last 2weeks, AUDUSD breaks down through key support yesterday, keep an eye on USDCHF even (positive momentum while above 0.8550+), EURUSD sub 1.0925 area is bearish too, USDCNH testing 7.20 again too.. ECB pushing back on early rate cuts Priced in already, a LOT priced in the U.S too and elsewhere, 10's UST back to 4% TAKE some/any charts from early November 2023 ! we are correcting Rates Spark: The ECB pushes back | Article | ING Think Are More S&P 500 Companies Issuing Negative EPS Guidance Than Average for Q4? (factset.com) Maersk hopes international interventions, naval presence will allow Red Sea transit to return (msn.com) Coming flood of US Treasury issuance unsettles some investors after blazing rally | Reuters Iowa Caucus results: Trump wins majority, Ramaswamy drops out – Iowa State Daily Five takeaways from the Iowa GOP caucuses | The Hill Switzerland marks start of China’s ‘high-level exchange’ with Europe - SWI swissinfo.ch Michael Pettis on X: "SCMP: "Some of China’s most prominent tycoons are committed to reining in debt, and are also eying the overseas market for increased growth this year, despite Beijing’s attempt to play up domestic economic prospects and calls for more private investment." https://t.co/okKlL3zKao" / X (twitter.com) Russia dismisses Ukraine peace plan talks in Davos - SWI swissinfo.ch Good reasons to believe that all parties involved should be around the table Houthi missile hits US-owned ship off Yemen coast - BBC News Ra'anana: One dead and 12 injured in terror attack near Tel Aviv, Israel's emergency services say | World News | Sky News Iran’s Revolutionary Guard deployed in Yemen (yahoo.com) War of words after Taiwan election highlights the intractable divide over the island's fate (qz.com) Lurching Avobis: Boss in a private jet, KB with a large loan – Inside Paradeplatz Africa’s biggest oil refinery begins production in Nigeria with the aim of reducing need for imports (qz.com) 2024 Emmy awards: Succession and The Bear win big at glittering ceremony | Evening Standard Elon Musk wants more control of Tesla, seeks 25% voting power (cnbc.com) Why..? SPX500 - all eq indices have fairly similar picture USDCHF - bullish while above 0.8550+ Yesterday's chart - pretty clear - AUDUSD

WEF : that time of the year where all the grandees meet in Davos U.S potential fiscal boost, it's election year after all. Lawmakers backing a $70bn tax break deal (not that big in reality..) evenly split between businesses and child tax credit, should get support across house, but may bring back talks of stick inflation >> although after soft PPI on Friday, markets pricing in now 160bps of cuts in 2024, big banks and other forecasters all debating whether 1st cut in March or June The annual Core PPI increased 1.8% in the same period, below the November reading and analysts' estimate of 2% and 1.9%, respectively JPN 2y yields hit ZERO, R.I.P 'normalization' Swiss inflation is now below 2% target, at 1.7% >>> room for CHF to weaken Morgan Stanley's leading indicators for M&A activity shows the majority of indicators flashing green. HY issuance is up 89% y/y, liquidity is improving and corporate cash levels are higher. Deal announcements already inflected up +35% y/y; expect announcements to continue accelerating and completions to follow. Two years of extraordinarily weak M&A activity should drive up activity levels off a low base as CEO confidence builds Taiwan’s Election Isn’t a Disaster for Xi Jinping—Unless He Makes It One UK's Post Office scandal: TV drama writer warned 'nobody would watch' programme Sovereign wealth funds and state pension providers are among investors telling money managers they’ll only commit in their upcoming fund raises if their capital tied up in old funds is released, according to people with knowledge of the matter Markets : Corn closed last week at its lowest price in 3years, and cocoa hitting prices not seen in about 45years The Mag 7 now have a combined market cap of more than $10 trillion. Ten years ago it was just over $1 trillion. They represent ~25% of the S&P 500, nothing new but still, NIKKEI 34y highs (zero rates and a weak currency..) Bonds looking for more, long-end rallies on softer U.S PPI on Friday USDJPY dipped on PPI but right back 145+, metals liked softer rates overall and equity always appreciate softer rates! Stock Markets: Big Bank earnings point to a grim season (cnbc.com) Is the Stock Market Open Today? These Are the Trading Hours for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. (msn.com) US Congress Unveils Temporary Spending Bill to Avert Shutdown (yahoo.com) Large Backers of Private Equity Are Asking For Their Money Back (yahoo.com) Who's who at WEF and what it tells us about the world - SWI swissinfo.ch Martin Luther King's eloquent explanation of racism is as important today as it was in 1967 | indy100 Bond Traders Reload Fed-Cut Wagers After PPI Data: Markets Wrap - SWI swissinfo.ch Taiwan’s Election Isn’t a Disaster for Xi—Unless He Makes It | TIME Taiwan loses another ally as Nauru breaks ties after China critic wins election (msn.com) Middle East crisis live: Houthi missile fired at USS Laboon shot down; British PM to address MPs about missile strikes in Yemen (theguardian.com) Ukraine and Switzerland urge countries to support peace plan in Davos - SWI swissinfo.ch Rubio throws support behind Trump in 2024 in snub to DeSantis | The Hill Almost half of Haley supporters say they would vote for Biden over Trump: Iowa poll | The Hill Iowa Caucus 2024: Trump, Haley and other 2024 Republicans rally before crucial contest (msn.com) The president appoints modern France’s youngest prime minister (economist.com) JPM's annual healthcare conference: Here's what's next for GLP-1s and the weight loss market (yahoo.com) Frederik X: Denmark has new King as Queen Margrethe II abdicates in historic moment for Europe’s oldest monarchy | World News | Sky News -Denmark’s King Frederik X takes throne after Margrethe abdicates | Denmark | The Guardian Iceland volcano latest: Lava inside town - after new crack opens in 'worst-case scenario' | World News | Sky News this is just insane Post Office scandal: TV drama writer warned 'nobody would watch' programme | UK News | Sky News such a sad, sad, yet great story ! EURUSD - holding up so far, key short-term levs around here 1.0925-50

Taiwan is holding its presidential election on Saturday, a race that China has called a choice between war and peace Yesterday's US CPI has the potential to signal an end to the consolidative phase, key is core inflation which is still 3.9% (headline up slightly 3.4%), freight and crude oil prices in focus with geopolitical tensions in ME >>> Focus next week shift to the real economy with retail sales, industrial output, and housing starts, bonds rallied post CPI on perception this data perhaps an outlier The FED (and other CB's) wants all of us to know that inflation is going down and the fight against inflation is done...because the reality is that economies cannot live/endure this level of financing cost for long, particularly governments spending, and this crushing of vol/liquidity adds from CB's kind of blocks out the horrors and the risks in the rest of the world Møller-Maersk chief warns Red Sea shipping disruption may last for months U.S. and China keep a close watch as Taiwan heads to the polls WEF 2024 starts on Monday Hertz to sell off one-third of its EVs, replace with gas cars, driven by higher costs and soft demand FED's commercial bank credit card rates have jumped to 21.5%, highest in history Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU PBOC may cut policy rate further in coming weeks, pro-growth policies to lead to investment-led rebound in 2024 - Citi White House says U.S. Ukraine assistance has ‘ground to a halt’; Zelenskyy says ‘global freedom’ is at stake BoJ considering lowering forecasts for growth, inflation >>> chances of a change in YCC diminishing, JPY softer helping Nikkei Markets : JGB 2year yields back to a big fat ZERO UK rates market now has 135bps of rate cuts price in by end of 2024 Crude, NatGas prices and metals higher on ME tensions, typical shor-term reaction Equity prices under slight pressure ahead of weekend (geopolitical risk) and ever so slightly firmer U.S core inflation, SPX4800 Jan 2022 top + valuations stretched FXland : Not a whole lot to add, markets positioned short USD, any further signs of short-covering would come from USDJPY, particularly with BoJ lowering expectations and/or on a decent risk off move. EURCHF (chart) maybe be starting to correct higher #CHF - generally less corporate hedging earlier in year & one would imagine many hedgers not particularly interested to lock in a rate on all time highs CHF levels.. BTC ETF's available on platform now, please ask if any interest U.S., British launch massive retaliatory strike against Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen (msn.com) Houthis Vow More Ship Attacks After US, UK Airstrikes in Yemen: Live Updates - Bloomberg Q&A: Who are the Houthis, and why are we involved in Yemen? - CityAM BOJ considers lowering FY2024 inflation outlook to mid-2% range - Jiji - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) How has the ETF story impacted Bitcoin price action so far this year? | Forexlive Buy the rumor and don't bother too much about the fact ? In Taiwan's election Saturday, who are the 3 candidates trying to become president? - ABC News (go.com) Ukraine and Russia say they want peace but they're nowhere near talks (cnbc.com) What to watch from big bank earnings (yahoo.com) Hertz to sell off one-third of its EVs, replace with gas cars (yahoo.com) Panama Canal drought moves Maersk to start using land bridge for cargo (cnbc.com) First US listed ETFs holding spot Bitcoin start trading today | Saxo Group (home.saxo) US food prices for these items are driving up grocery bills the most (qz.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "The CPI and the PCE have opened up a more notable wedge with recent readings, and early translations of CPI to PCE for December suggest core PCE running around 0.2%. The wedge suggests the “last mile” might be easier for PCE than CPI so far" / X (twitter.com) Taiwan elections: U.S., China keep a close watch as Taiwan heads to polls (cnbc.com) France's new government announced with only one major change at the foreign ministry | AP News Swiss Portfolio Manager, Gefion Capital Launches Gold-Denominated Note to Invest in Monetary Metals' Gold Leases and Bonds (prnewswire.com) Swiss government accused of massive online surveillance - SWI swissinfo.ch Marc Faber's Stark Warning: "Economic Winter is Coming" - Gloom Boom Doom by Marc Faber Dr Doom! Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU | Politics News | Sky News Post Office lied and threatened BBC over Horizon whistleblower - BBC News WEF Davos Summit: Disinformation 'Biggest Global Risk' in 2024 (voanews.com) EURCHF - maybe beginning to correct higher have a wonderful weekend team PVM