Week ahead : FED meeting, easy 'unch' decision this time, everyone expects them to cut hard this year (140bps priced in), the FED dop plots have 3 cuts for the year, next few meetings will be more debated >>> however we have the U.S treasury refunding announcement too on Wednesday, which will outline the compositions of the issuance going forward, this event has moved markets before and markets will be looking for hints on QT too. BoE on Thursday unchanged, and a huge week of earnings, MSFT today, AAPL and AMZN on Thursday
"We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver a first cut in March and 5 cuts in total in 2024. The main reason is that progress on inflation has already surpassed the threshold the FOMC has given" --GS (slightly under what the markets been pricing all along)
China put the brakes on short-selling as it seeks to shore up stock markets. Strategic investors won’t be allowed to lend out shares during agreed lock-up periods starting today, regulators said. In real estate, Guangzhou eased buying curbs on larger housing units as part of efforts to stem falling prices
World Court stops short of Gaza ceasefire order for Israel
The US became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in less than a decade, drastically rewriting global energy trade/Thread
Norway defends deep-sea mining, says it may help to break China and Russia’s rare earths stronghold
AfD narrowly loses first election since mass deportation meeting revelations
Brussels threatens to hit Hungary’s economy if Viktor Orbán vetoes Ukraine aid
Markets :
The top 13 stocks have driven the whole of the S&P’s YTD upside with the top five contributing ~70% >>> concentration of risk, nothing new, big week ahead though, ''massive & most powerful short-cycle rally ever''
Commods/Saxo Thread below
FXland all fairly quiet, CROSSJPY's pushed a little higher again, EURCHF cannot hold even .9400+, GBPCHF fails 1.10+ too, slightly disappointing for the bull sin those pairs, EURO should weaken on weak macro data though and dovish ECB
Equity markets powered ahead in January, inflows in Mag 7's + short-covering from HF's made it a pretty fierce cocktail of event, markets were able to ignore any geo-political, supply chain disruption events around the world, awaiting the big boys reporting now >>> Earnings Calendar | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)
The busiest and most crucial week for fourth-quarter earnings is here. These 5 companies will do the heavy lifting. (msn.com)
Ole S Hansen on X: "COT on #commodities (wk to Jan 23) showed continued net selling despite broad price gains. It left several contracts exposed to a China stimulus and US GDP squeeze. Selling was concentrated in metals and grains with several short positions reaching multi-year highs (copper,… https://t.co/MOMlpuZ1Y6" / X (twitter.com)
Stephen Stapczynski on X: "THE US LNG MIRACLE 🇺🇸🚢 This is the story of how the US became the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in less than a decade, drastically rewriting global energy trade Thread below 🧵👇 https://t.co/Aw4x15YEVy" / X (twitter.com)
A projection in Finland says Alexander Stubb wins the first round of the presidential election to set up a Feb 11 runoff (qz.com)
SPX500 looks a bit overdone but we've been here before - 20% of index report this week if ever there is to be a trigger for a correction
