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SpaceX blasts private firm's lunar lander into orbit, few tense days now ! ahead of touch down on 22nd Feb Stronger 0.4%MoM core CPI is not an aberration. The US economy has entered a new regime where inflation is on a higher plateau (normalization), leading FOMC to keep rates 'high for longer' Druckenmiller dumped shares of Alphabet, Amazon and Broadcom while scooping up shares of beaten-down gold miners Barrick Gold and Newmont, Berkshire sheds some holdings, mum on new investment UK & Japan ''recession'' alarms, as NIKKEI hits near all time highs (only 'just' short of the1989 highs at moment) Forecasters who translate the CPI into the PCE are currently tracking January core PCE to rise 0.3%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 2.7% But these figures are preliminary and could change after the PPI is released on Friday NatGas prices hitting 3year lows, not too far off 25y lows (good news!) Train review: What it’s like to ride the Venice Simplon-Orient-Express New Zealand central bank governor Adrian Orr has issued a warning about crypto currencies such as stablecoins, saying they are no substitute for fiat money Markets : Equity markets didn't stay down for long at all ! soonest it got quiet yesterday, VIX went straight back down, and markets came back gradually.. BONDS - flatter, coming back fairly easily too Nick Timiraos on X: "Forecasters who translate the CPI into the PCE are currently tracking January core PCE to rise 0.3%, which would lower the 12-month rate to 2.7% But these figures are preliminary and could change after the PPI is released on Friday https://t.co/mZzZMYOmHJ" / X (twitter.com) JPMorgan Asset Management quits climate action group (ft.com) UK economy fell into recession at the end of 2023 (msn.com) 0.1 here and there will not make much of a difference to most folks but there you go Japan is no longer the world's third-largest economy as it slips into recession (msn.com) BoJ will send the hawks from time to time but will simply do nothing then... Markets 'overly optimistic' on rate cuts, managers warn - FTAdviser TSMC shares hit record high after Morgan Stanley lifts client Nvidia's price target on AI chip demand (msn.com) Druckenmiller dumps Alphabet, Amazon and Broadcom; Nvidia remains largest holding - MarketWatch Holger Zschaepitz on X: "There seems to be no stopping #Nvidia's scorching rally. The day after surpassing the market value of #Amazon, the chip giant has now overtaken #Alphabet as well. Nvidia's stock has climbed ~49% YTD and added some $602bn in value, BBG has calculated. https://t.co/5pshHsojHM" / X (twitter.com) Dividend Growth Investor on X: "Warren Buffett's Portfolio Holdings at Berkshire Hathaway updated as of 12/31/2023 https://t.co/5yH6ff0prc" / X (twitter.com) Berkshire sheds some holdings, mum on new investment (msn.com) How The Richest Democracy in the World Abandons Americans (hartmannreport.com) New Zealand Central Banker Slams Stablecoins as ‘Oxymorons’ (yahoo.com) SpaceX to take 100 Starlink satellites out of orbit (qz.com) Moon launch live: SpaceX rocket launches for moon's mysterious south pole | Science & Tech News | Sky News and OSINTdefender on X: "On February 9th, the Cosmos-2575 Mission was launched by Roskosmos using a Soyuz-2 Rocket carrying an “Unknown Payload into Space for the Russian Ministry of Defense.” https://t.co/Ppdsogf8Y7" / X (twitter.com) OSINTdefender - The National Security Threat reportedly involves the Russian Military attempting the Deployment of Nuclear Weapons into Space for use against Satellites. At least one killed and 21 injured in Kansas City Chiefs parade shooting | Kansas City Chiefs | The Guardian Limiting litigation funding will prove we learned nothing from the Post Office scandal (cityam.com) This looks just amazing Train review: What it’s like to ride the Venice Simplon-Orient-Express (cnbc.com)

MoF against what they described as rapid and speculative yen moves overnight when the Japanese currency broke past 150 yen, undermining the trade-reliant economy >>> need to walk the talk if they really want to change anything in a relative strong USD world USDollar stays firm(er) as rates finally diverge (EZ growth downgrades, UK mix - higher wages, unch inflation, U.S rates up a decent 15bps yesterday!.. #TLT #duration under pressure) Following stronger data, ISM, NFP and U.S CPI now, market pricing for 2024 Fed rate cuts has fallen from around 150+bps at end-2022 to around 90bps now BofA Feb Fund Manager Survey: Investors are the most bullish in 2 years; cash lvl's cut to 4.2% with growth expectations at 2y highs; investors aren't predicting a recession for the first time since Apr'22; long magnificent 7 is the most crowded trade since Oct'22 The Mag 7now have a higher market cap than the entire stock markets of Japan, France, the United Kingdom and Mexico COMBINED! .. MS : “.. EV sentiment is extremely negative… and will eventually deteriorate further, in our view. .. Our clients want our auto companies to do a combination of 4 things: spend less, spend slower, spend smarter, and return cash.” Germany to lower 2024 economic growth forecast ECB’s De Guindos: Potential Growth Very Likely To Slow In Future - Economic Activity Likely To Have Stagnated In Q4 VIX calls buying : 1.27mio VIX calls traded yesterday, similar levels to Jan 12th and probably even to Oct level of 1.37mio, after that it's 1.65mio during regional banking 'crisis' last March Jeff Bezos could save $600 million this year thanks to his move to Florida. The billionaire avoided Washington state's 7% capital gains tax on a recent sale of $2 billion worth of Amazon stock Lyft’s stock had a bonkers after-hours rally, rocketing upwards of 60% higher at one point — then quickly contracted before settling to still-solid gains of around 16% Another on of those 'stat' : The number of weekly increases in the S&P 500 is the most overextended it has been in over 50 years Markets : U.S CPI resetting expectations on FED cuts for 2024, market aligning to FED dot plots slowly but surely, rates sensitive areas got hit (Russell etc), main market looked set for a pretty weak close, till a last hour rally from around 4'920 to 4'960 SPX, driven by QQQ as usual, NVDA was flat on the day, they report next week! USD firmer as it should still on 'high for longer' high plateau for rates (as unlikely as it may be, the big risk is a couple of Fed members start to argue for a hike..) Japan warns against rapid, speculative yen falls | Reuters UK inflation rate remains at 4% | Business News | Sky News Number of rate cuts will depend on inflation data, ECB's Lane says | Reuters Monetary policy, financial stability and medium-term growth in the euro area (europa.eu) Very nicely put together by the excellent Althea - Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Hotter-than-expected CPI doesn't bode well with an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. - Headline 3.1% vs 2.9% exp. - Core 3.9% vs. 3.7% exp. ⚠️10y yields bounce to test weak resistance at 4.28%. If they close above 4.2%, they will likely continue their rise to 4.4%. https://t.co/pncEQpdoD7" / X (twitter.com) Those expecting cuts really want this trend to continue ! Charlie Bilello on X: "Shelter CPI has now moved down on a YoY basis for 10 straight months, from a peak of 8.2% in March 2023 (highest since 1982) to 6.0% today. Given its long lag vs. real-time rent data, a continued move lower is expected which should lead to a continued decline in core inflation. https://t.co/jTufhssAki" / X (twitter.com) And this is NOT good news Alf on X: "This is supercore inflation - a measure of sticky inflationary pressures Powell & Co often refer to: - It slowed down vertically towards ~3% until the end of last year - But since then it has now accelerated rapidly to 5.5%! This isn't good news for markets. https://t.co/1MlJPjGCuF" / X (twitter.com) BofA Survey Shows Investors Are All In on US Tech Stock Rally - Bloomberg Exclusive-Germany to lower 2024 economic growth forecast, source says (msn.com) Cocoa | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Jeff Bezos could save millions from Florida move as he sells Amazon stock (qz.com) Airbnb (ABNB) Q4 earnings 2023 (cnbc.com) Lyft’s stock had a bonkers after-hours rally. Was it due to a typo in its earnings release? (msn.com) quel joke, how is this still possible in 2024... Leading Swiss machine supplier bets on growth despite industry troubles - SWI swissinfo.ch Kung Hei Fat Choi! (finews.asia) What will become of the Julius Baer Monster management? – Inside Paradeplatz Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests | Climate crisis | The Guardian More weather end of the world doom - can't we just admit/say that the planet is changing over pre and next few decades, we all agree that the weather is MUCH more volatile, let's make the most out of it and meanwhile (have to ) adapt, as we should ? You can't force some people to do certain things and pay for them, when few other billions on the planet don't or can't do much about it (diff wealth or economic cycle) Peter Stefanovic on X: "If like me you’ve had enough of the absolute boll**** Rishi Sunak just fed GB News viewers in his “peoples forum” RT these FACTS widely https://t.co/EgALVDAOCl" / X (twitter.com) Sadiq Khan says fake AI audio of him nearly led to 'serious disorder' | Evening Standard Indonesia 2024 election: Prabowo leads in unofficial presidential vote count (cnbc.com) Pakistan Election Results 2024 Live Updates: 'Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf open to talks with all parties, except PPP, PML-N', says Imran Khan - The Times of India (indiatimes.com) Russia Has Lost More Tanks Than It Had Before the Ukraine War: IISS (businessinsider.com) NASDAQ100 - Fibo retracement levels from the move since late October 2023

UK Wages excluding bonuses grew by 6.2% in the last three months of 2023 compared with the same period a year earlier (rate cuts pushed further back) Trump's comments have thrust the Republican front-runner into the center of a political storm and sent shockwaves throughout the Western military alliance Meanwhile : The CPI for vehicles in China fell by -5.6% in January (year-on-year), back to early 2002 lows (deflation there >>> eventually USDCNH break up ?) India eyes $100bn investment deal with Switzerland and Norway German office prices dropped a whopping 10%, and given the slow-moving nature of the asset class, more declines are coming "Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now. ", while Nigeria, India will be huge gainers over the next few decades Total boss warns governments risk mis-selling energy transition France's farmers are angry. They say they're being strangled by a toxic combination of red tape, trade deals, unrealistic prices and ecological measures UK's Sunak faces a few tough days ahead, inflation likely showing signs of ticking up tomorrow, then a weak GDP data (light recession calls) and in all likeliness loosing 2 by elections on Thursday too Markets : there is no doubt strong CHF kept/eventually pushed inflation lower, SNB chatter last month was quite clear on CHF, no reason why we can't go to 0.9200 USDCHF, 1.20 GBPCHF (chart below) and 1.0200 EURCH area. Equity markets would notice a firmer U.S CPI (together with strong UK data too) and may well find an excuse to have a correction from these pretty lofty levels, clearly a lot of shorts got 'stretched out' lately. 10's UST well above 4.20+ area heading towards 4.50% >>> strong risk markets (what liquidity issue?), we had a much better/stronger NFP 10days ago, were we to get a stronger U.S CPI, rate cuts will continue to be walked back and risk may well notice eventually (current pricing is down to 4 cuts by Dec 2024 for both Fed and ECB, pretty decent shift from say 2months ago, as Ai related stocks FOMO momentum (mainly) dragged eq indexes to their highs YTD +very much a case of the 'shorts' that got totally smashed lately UK regular wages grow by stronger than expected 6.2% (msn.com) -- Unimportant if UK enters shallow recession, Bank of England's Bailey says | Reuters (..dont' expect rate cuts too early..) Swiss franc falls to 9-week low vs dollar after Swiss CPI (yahoo.com) Bitcoin price hits $50,000 after more than doubling (qz.com) CNBC's Fast Money on X: "Is FOMO driving stocks higher? Evercore's Julian Emanuel dives into the forces driving what he calls a "super-charged momentum market" and where the dangers lie: https://t.co/5zksMQtQ2V" / X (twitter.com) Clearly and area of downside risk of high for longer rates Why NYC apartments could become a big problem for NYCB (yahoo.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Passive funds have overtaken active. That’s changed a lot b/c the number of active managers is down a lot, David Einhorn says in MIB podcast: "There’s entire segments now mostly in the smaller part of the market where there’s literally nobody paying any attention...I view the… https://t.co/aMqxEZ5DXx" / X (twitter.com) Trump’s NATO comments stir up a political storm as Russia keeps quiet (cnbc.com) Total boss warns governments risk mis-selling energy transition | West Observer Difference perspective to the 'soft landing consensus' Bloomberg TV on X: "“I think that there is now a higher than 50% chance that we either have a hard landing or no landing,” Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok says on Bloomberg's Surveillance https://t.co/ghSXeRRFLA https://t.co/zUoiBNmJFI" / X (twitter.com) Super Bowl 2024 ads recap: DoorDash, DunKings, Beyoncé and more (cnbc.com) Harris says she’s ready to serve amid questions about Biden’s age | The Hill India eyes $100bn investment deal with Switzerland and Norway - SWI swissinfo.ch How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust - WSJ "Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now. " US Commercial Real Estate Push Backfires for German Lender PBB (yahoo.com) Will Commercial Real Estate Trigger The Next Crisis? | ZeroHedge Arm Holdings Sees Surge in Options Trading Amid AI Stocks Craze - EconoTimes Softbank owns 90pct of the stocks, probably helped create this massive squeeze, now many calling ARM the next NVDA SoftBank Shares Climb Again With Arm’s Explosive AI Rally (yahoo.com) Stellantis is now the final major automaker to adopt Tesla's EV charging standard (qz.com) Diamondback and Endeavor merge as oil, energy rivals consolidate (qz.com) Behind the blockades: Witness joins France's protesting farmers | Euronews Red tape destroying many small businesses, from farming to finance, much the same, politics favour big businesses! Petition demands better deal for Swiss farmers  - SWI swissinfo.ch GBPCHF - this one has been totally cornered in the doom camp for long while - decent probability of 1.20 - and you have some every decent carry!

Week ahead : likely to be quiet in Asia with Chinese new year, ECB's Panetta hawkish, Eq futures on highs, FED's Kashkari speaks later on today and main event U.S inflation data tomorrow and UK later on NVDA market cap is sup -1- TSLA over the last 2months, up to $1.7trn, 200dma is some $270 lower than current price For the first time in 34 years, the Nikkei jumped above 37,000. The index is now about 5% away from taking out the all-time high set all the way back in December 1989 BofA : "30-second ad during Super Bowl I (1967) was $37,500, price for Super Bowl LVII $7,000,000 = 185x jump; nothing keeps pace with Super Bowl inflation but if they could... 6-pack of beer would be $340, gallon of gasoline $61, avg US house price $4.2mn & S&P500 would be 16374" Some 80% of S&P 500 firms are exceeding earnings projection Nato chief says Donald Trump comments 'undermine all of our security' SNB total sight deposits w.e. 9 February CHF 482.3 bn vs CHF 481.2 bn prior IMF's Georgieva says expects interest rates to start coming down from middle of the year Trump is pledging massive China tariffs in a second term that would shrink a $575 billion trade pipeline to practically nothing. Another Biden term won't bring China much relief, either Markets : 10's UST yields near recent 2months highs 4.18% ahead of U.S CPI, equity been on FOMO mode, NVDA the most incredible rise lately, USD stays firm(er), overall sentiment/momentum can swift quickly, watch out if we see a higher CPI print which forces the market to reassess rate cuts expectation over next few months Inflation, retail sales, and corporate earnings: What to know this week (yahoo.com) Corporate America’s Surprising Profits Help Propel Stock Rally - Bloomberg Nato chief says Donald Trump comments 'undermine all of our security' - BBC News Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 on X: "Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 12 February 2024. Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/OvlDlvNrbQ #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 https://t.co/8jtMRHj33w" / X (twitter.com) New Zealand central bank blames inflation for restrictive policy | Reuters Business confidence 'cautiously' returns as service sector continues recovery (cityam.com) Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and there are few signs of hope (cnbc.com) Israel's finance minister blasts Moody's downgrade of the the country's credit rating (qz.com) Egypt will not oppose Israel's move into Rafah (telegraph.co.uk) Rafah: Israel says it will expand its military operations all the way south - BBC News Former PM Alexander Stubb wins Finnish presidency, narrowly defeating ex-top diplomat Pekka Haavisto (qz.com) How Marine Le Pen turned respectable (and why you shouldn’t be fooled) – POLITICO The DUP must decide what Brexit they want - or Northern Ireland will be stuck - CityAM Zelensky, Trudeau, other world leaders brace for potential Trump presidency (axios.com) How the Chinese markets lost faith in the CCP | The Spectator G.Magnus >>> With lunar new year holidays underway, relief for China’s beleaguered stock mkts after last week’s firefighting. But for how long? What might it take for CCP to repair confidence? And will it? How the Chinese markets lost faith in the CCP Trump-Biden 2024 Election Rematch Promises Economic Pain for China - Bloomberg Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Moved to ‘Critical Care’ Unit for ‘Monitoring’ (thedailybeast.com) Elon Musk must testify in SEC probe of his Twitter takeover (cnbc.com) Passive investors have 'fundamentally broken' the market, David Einhorn says (msn.com) This is the No. 1 global city where expats thrive, says new report (cnbc.com) NVDA - pretty insane, this is NVDA not any other penny stock

Kung Hei Fat Choi to friends celebrating, happy new Wood Dragon year! 'My memory is fine': Biden shouts at reporters as he defends his mental competence. Special counsel report questions Biden's memory Yellen: It’s ‘obvious’ that empty office buildings will create banking stress and losses, Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell >> because CRE loans are about 30% of small bank assets vs 7% of large banks China Evegrande bond : 99% wiped out for HF's >>> “Authorities are not likely to allow offshore claimants to secure valuable onshore assets while effectively insolvent developers struggle to meet politically tense onshore obligations,”... and they wonder why money not flowing back in China...au contraire, flows moving out via Tether and al U.S has seen a decent amount of layoffs recently (ZH link-article), however...see Threads - how negativity plays in the media, layoffs maybe, but NFP, JOLTS, claims still strong (for now anyway, clearly must be monitored!) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its key rate by a higher than expected 50 bps to 6.25% on February 8, as policymakers reacted to macro-economic figures show that growth is still struggling to accelerate, while inflation is falling fast EV : I'm back in a diesel after 4yrs running both EV & PHEV. What needs to change to get me to go back? good video explanation below Puzzling : With a $3 trillion market cap, Microsoft is twice the size of the entire energy sector in the S&P 500, which generates double Microsoft’s annual free cash flow US firms see best start to February ever in announced buybacks Chinese stocks trading at their highest levels since very early Jan, rescue packaged, short selling bans, disabling the sell button on some uant funds appear to have stopped the pain, for now anyway #contrariantrade Cocoa prices through the roof, Valentine's day 2024 officially cancelled ! Seven stocks (Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) added $5.1 trillion to their market cap in 2023, accounting for about 55% of the $9.2 trillion added during the year by all 6658 US firms -SPX500 up vs Copper down is another combination that isn't really common (long-term) Markets : yields grinding higher 10's UST 4.17 (dragging USDJPY higher), Bund yields highest in 2months etc, big UST auction week passed by without troubles, but perhaps the supply will tell eventually >>> BIG Techs totally unbothered, large cap vs small cap (SPX all time highs vs RUT in bear market), growth, Ai vs cash flow, major 'gap' continues to widen to some 15y extremes depending on which ratio you are looking at >>> real question is when is growth overpriced, when is Ai overpriced ?..not too dissimilar to the .com period Czech central bank cuts key rate by 50 bps (msn.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "There has been a notable narrowing in views among sell-side banks and other Fed watchers around when the first rate cut occurs. All now see the first cut in either May or June and are nearly evenly divided on that question. There's a wide range on the question of how many cuts. https://t.co/AtlFIKHT8F" / X (twitter.com) Yellen: It’s ‘obvious’ that empty office buildings will create banking stress and losses (msn.com) Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell (yahoo.com) Special counsel report questions Biden's memory (axios.com) 'My memory is fine': Joe Biden shouts at reporters as he defends his mental competence (telegraph.co.uk) Analysis: How do the EU farmer protests relate to climate change?  - Carbon Brief Despite Mass Layoffs, US Jobless Claims Declined Last Week | ZeroHedge However : ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on X: "People are getting excited about layoff announcements despite Claims, UR, NFP, JOLTS, and all the headline data showing labor market still pretty decent. Here's some perspective on how those headlines were a red herring in 2015, 2022 and 2023. Employment is hiring and firing.… https://t.co/IdfAKB94HR" / X (twitter.com) ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on X: "Of the many, many ways that negativity bias plays out in the media: You see big scary layoff headlines every day but you rarely see headlines about hiring. Layoff headlines are best ignored as they are useless anecdotes that should be compared to data tabulating offsetting… https://t.co/BT15MirS8W" / X (twitter.com) Evergrande: A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on China - Bloomberg Shipping giant Maersk says overcapacity will hit profits, playing down Red Sea disruption boost – The Irish Times Arm becomes Britain's sixth most valuable company after shares rise 50% (msn.com) ZKB almost explodes with profits – Inside Paradeplatz Microsoft layoffs at Activision violate merger promises, FTC says (qz.com) SoftBank shares extend their surge, pop more than 15% on earnings beat (cnbc.com) PayPal shares fall as 2024 forecast clouds promise of turning leaner, more profitable (msn.com) Musings on Markets: The Seven Samurai: How Big Tech Rescued the Market in 2023! (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) Share Repurchases Return With Stocks Hitting Record Highs - Bloomberg I'm back in a diesel after 4yrs running both EV & PHEV. What needs to change to get me to go back? (youtube.com) >>>> the whole point about there being no measure of battery degradation hence second hand values have collapsed and so leasing costs go through the roof and sales stop in addition to the much higher insurance costs and outside of Tesla, no proper charging network TLT : tech picture looks weak ''''The technical pattern, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, often signifies a shift in momentum and investor sentiment''

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. EV demand is decelerating, suppliers are cutting backlogs, fleets are cutting and some consumers are moving back to ICE/Hybrid vehicles. OEMs are being ‘rewarded’ for pulling back on EV spend. It’s become fashionable to be an EV bear.” >>>> the good news is that finally prices are coming down quite substantially for 2nd hand EV cars.. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné on EVs: "You ask people to spend more money to get a car to have the same function that an ICE car. Why should they spend more money? Tell me."... (and this in a cost of living crisis/struggle...got to bring much cheaper smaller EV models.. should have always been the goal...) China PPI dipped in Jan for a 16th month, consumer prices see biggest drop since 2009 >>> slipping deeper into deflation The US imported more from Mexico than China for the first time in decades SNAP ! The momentum that has carried the S&P to 5,000 “has few equals in history,” the standout being the Internet-fueled rally off a similar mkt bottom in Oct. 1998: Evercore’s Emanuel. He sees a host of issues suggesting 1-yr forward returns for stocks of 0% regardless of recession UBS: "There is a narrative that rising equity markets are good, and falling equity markets are bad. This is not true. Fairly valued equities are good, and bubbles or disorderly markets are bad." AI chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Bard consume an astronomical amount of electricity and water and — or, more precisely, the massive data centers that power them do.. And according to the latest estimates, those energy demands are rapidly ballooning to epic proportions Markets : markets/daily traders been piling up / continue to pile up into calls in the Mag 7, plenty of comments 'this has gone too far', value vs growth, small cap vs growth gap 'highest in 15years' etc, weak market's internals etc..all agrreed..., but what will snap this trend and change its course ? something will snap sooner or later, too hard to tell what/when for now, but it always goes too far in then end. USD should stay firm(er), USDJPY testing BoJ soon again near 150JPY. 30's UST auction tonight, 10's yesterday went quite well AI's Electricity Use Is Spiking So Fast It'll Soon Use as Much Power as an Entire Country (futurism.com) old article Nov 2023 but still Michael McDonough on X: "Regional banks generally face higher commercial real estate loan exposure. Not surprising, but worth noting: Exposure map https://t.co/djysdGVWCD" / X (twitter.com) US imports from Mexico surpass China (qz.com) Michael Santoli on X: "All the divergences that have had people twisted into knots over the past year (mega-cap over equal-weight, large-cap over small, etc.) really date to the mini-bank crisis last March. Possibly relevant as folks puzzle over S&P 500 new highs amid another oddball bank struggling. https://t.co/245x6c6lRu" / X (twitter.com) China producer prices dip in January for a 16th month; consumer prices see biggest drop since 2009 (cnbc.com) UK workers must accept lower pay deals to help beat inflation, says Bank ratesetter | Inflation | The Guardian >>> nice of you to say Governor! it's an easy message to others ....when you earn at least 600K per year... U.S. Central Command on X: "USCENTCOM Conducts Strike Killing Kata’ib Hezbollah Senior Leader At 9:30 p.m. (Baghdad Time) February 7, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on U.S. service members, killing a Kata’ib Hezbollah commander… https://t.co/Zhkjimx5UG" / X (twitter.com) Kremlin corrects Tucker Carlson’s claim that no Western journalists tried to interview Putin | The Independent Apple is developing foldable clamshell iPhones - The Information (yahoo.com) New Vontobel bosses pull out knives: Up to 300 jobs gone – Inside Paradeplatz ESPN, Fox, Warner Bros. Discovery to launch sports streaming platform (qz.com) Snapchat's parent company's stock plunges 35% (qz.com) SoftBank earnings Q3 FY 2023 (cnbc.com) Orsted to cut jobs, halt dividends, and exit some offshore wind markets | Fortune Europe Nespresso: police track down coke seized in Romont | 24 hours (24heures.ch) Exxon, Chevron and Shell Deliver a Cash Gusher for Investors - Bloomberg Exclusive: EU border agency says stopping migration is impossible | Reuters EU and Spain to sign migration deal with Mauritania as people-smuggling rises – The Irish Times How Trump Uses the Power and Imagery of His Presidency - The New York Times (nytimes.com) A reminder : :-) Jim Bianco on X: "This really is a good explanation of banking. https://t.co/EUx3LFYiuc" / X (twitter.com) SPX - it is getting towards the top of the band - overdone, hard to argue against that in short-term

ECB's Schnabel : ECB must be patient with rate cuts, lowering borrowing costs risk 'flare up' of inflation >>> ECB was very late to hike rates, chances are they will be late to cut them >>> >>> the biggest surprise of 2024 could very well be that major CB's do not deliver anywhere neat the cuts that are priced in already by markets... Hamas proposes three-stage ceasefire over 135 days, leading to end of war and Saudi Arabia says there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel without an independent Palestinian state German Ind prod fell again in Dec, it is now 14% less than at it peak 7y ago NSC leader Pieter Omtzigt has pulled out of the ongoing talks on forming a new Dutch government, saying there is no point in holding any meetings on forming a majority right-wing government ‘A slow fiscal death’ awaits some countries in this ‘decade of debt,’ says economist Arthur Laffer >> U.S Credit card debt has ticked up to another new high of $1.13trn European Wind giant Orsted is out with another pretty weak earnings report India top be the largest source of oil demand growth until 2030 - IEA The farming lobby won: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will withdraw a plan to cut the use of pesticides by 50%. Slowly, Brussels is rolling back on its green agenda. European elections in June are forcing the change UK’s biggest housebuilder Barratt to buy rival Redrow for £2.5bn Yellen : (hardly a surprise but they admit the problem) - “I don’t want to comment on the situation of an individual bank, but commercial real estate is an area that we’ve long been aware could create financial stability risks or losses in the banking system, and this is something that requires careful supervisory attention" Global silver demand is forecast to reach 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, which would mark the second-highest level on record, the Silver Institute said in a recent report Markets : DAX 17K, equity in general still firm(er), unphased by much, though 'insider' selling in the U.S on highs again, big techs has probably overdone it by now, but sellers need a tigger to sell. USD on firm side going into UST auctions, 10's UST resistance in yield terms 4.10-4.15 area key for curve and QQQ, CHF slightly softer perhaps on Hamas news (charts- our view CHF is about to weaken in med term) and Chinese markets beginning to please those contrarians buyers in Jan 2024 ! EU to withdraw plan to reduce chemical pesticide use (rte.ie) ECB must be patient with rate cuts, Schnabel tells FT (msn.com) Debt is piling up and it won't end well for the world, economist warns (cnbc.com) Ed Bradford on X: "Since the Volcker years, it has been unusual for the curve to remain inverted for so long. Guessing something will have to give soon. Either the long end will sell off or the Fed will cut. https://t.co/IdaCoJgjoU" / X (twitter.com) India to be largest source of oil demand growth until 2030: IEA | S&P Global Commodity Insights (spglobal.com) Dutch coalition talks collapse as Pieter Omtzigt pulls plug - DutchNews.nl Geert Wilders leadership hopes sink as coalition talks collapse (cnbc.com) Seven key takeaways from the US Senate’s border security and Ukraine bill | US-Mexico border | The Guardian Eii Lilly quickly sold $176 million of weight loss drug Zepbound (qz.com) Hertz Misses Estimates on EV Fleet Rethink, Plans Cost Cuts (yahoo.com) Orsted halts dividends as spirallng losses cast ominous shadow over major projects (msn.com) tough investing in the ESG green energy world...without huge subsidies and/or cheap funding it often doesn't add up - only way many of these projects work is if the tax payers pays up! better news here though Wind turbine maker Vestas returns to profit (msn.com) Saudi Arabia says there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel without an independent Palestinian state | Reuters China-Africa trade hit US$282 billion in 2023 but Africa’s trade deficit widens, with commodity prices a key factor | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Quartr on X: "$PLTR is surging +30% today after reporting, according to CEO Alexander Karp, "Numbers that just fly off the screen." We've compiled 10 key quotes and slides from the earnings call 🧵 1. Rapid growth driven primarily by developments in AI and LLMs: https://t.co/l1OKhr1Z99" / X (twitter.com) UK’s biggest housebuilder Barratt to buy rival Redrow for £2.5bn | Construction industry | The Guardian Silver could hit 10-year high and outperform gold, says Silver Institute (cnbc.com) refer to long-term chart we've posted here a few times, triangle formation, looks ready for a breakout in 2024 ! EURCHF needs to trade properly 0.9550+ to squeeze those CHF longa, GPBCHF 1.12+, USDCHF should head towards 0.9200 again in such a scenario

Week ahead : could be quite eventful week with the amount of bonds going under the hammer, 54bn 3y, 42bn of 10's and 25bn of 30's + geopolitics which are getting more intense! US intends further strikes on Iran-backed groups, national security adviser says Powell tells it on '60 minutes' FED is wary of cutting rates too soon, same message than last Thursday' , he sees 3 cuts in 2024 relative to the 6 the market has priced in.... and forward looking indicators are through the roof lately, semis (obviously Ai related), but still, recession ? how about ISM manuf near 60 this summer ?... “The U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy… We're borrowing from future generations,” says Fed chief Jerome Powell Bayer trades well below book value AfD party continues to fall in the polls after tens of thousands protest in Germany against the far right. In the latest polls, the far-right AfD party is only at 19% and 20% respectively way below ATH Apple has bought back $619 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 492 companies in the S&P 500 >>> Chinese investors are (have been) hammering their own stocks to buy Mag 7 Michelle O'Neill: Balancing act ahead for a historic first minister Paris votes in favour of €18-per-hour parking fees for SUVs SNB total sight deposits w.e. 2 February CHF 481.2 bn vs CHF 472.2 bn prior Senate releases $118 billion bipartisan aid proposal for Israel, Ukraine, border security Big Tech boosts profits by $10bn with accounting change to server life estimate Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta have all shifted estimates of how long they will use technical equipment Eurozone Jan 2024 HCOB services PMI 48.4 vs 48.3 flash (previous 48.8) Trump suggests he would consider a tariff upward of 60% on all Chinese imports if reelected Markets : Chinese stocks volatile/can't catch a break (Trump), Mag 7's went up like 'meme' stocks last week, USDJPY about to test BoJ again near 150jpy area (might be worth trying to short a few crossjpy's again 160+eurjpy etc) , SPX500 overdone, but we've been here before, below 48000 area will only worry the bulls and big week for bonds 200dma 10's UST around 4.10 (we keep in mind 4.10-4.,20% yield resistance, well beyond this could well now be the trigger for a correction in QQQ. USD overall stronger, after big payroll number, revisions or not, it was big, including average earnings Powell insists the Fed will move carefully on rate cuts, with probably fewer than the market expects (msn.com) Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript - CBS News The US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, starting off 2024 with a bang (msn.com)  (spglobal.com) Eurozone downturn at its weakest since July 2023 China Stocks Post More Wild Swings Amid Beijing Stability Vow (yahoo.com) China Gloom Spurs Record $2 Billion Rush Into Foreign Stock ETFs - Bloomberg Big Tech boosts profits by $10bn with accounting change to server life estimate (ft.com) totally insane...Incredible: Amazon's AWS revenue in 2023 ($91 billion) was higher than the revenue of 463 companies in the S&P 500. From $3 billion to $91 billion in 10 years (>40% annualized growth) US launches more strikes against Houthis in Yemen - BBC News US intends further strikes on Iran-backed groups, national security adviser says | Reuters Middle East Conflict Reshapes India-Iran Relations - Geopolitical Futures Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Senate releases $118 billion aid proposal for Israel, Ukraine (cnbc.com) Michelle O'Neill: Balancing act ahead for a historic first minister - BBC News Holger Zschaepitz on X: "OUCH! #Germany's #Bayer is trading at only 83% of its book value. In other words, if the company were to be sold today at book value, shareholders would make a profit of 17%. Or to put it another way: the core business is viewed negatively by the financial markets. https://t.co/EAMkGL21FR" / X (twitter.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "AfD party continues to fall in the polls after tens of thousands protest in Germany against the far right. In the latest polls, the far-right AfD party is only at 19% and 20% respectively way below ATH. https://t.co/NUqZD8JvaW" / X (twitter.com) When dead children are just the price of doing business, Zuckerberg’s apology is empty | Carole Cadwalladr | The Guardian Market cap alone went up 250bn last week, nothing to see here Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella caps a decade of change and tremendous growth (qz.com) Swiss healthcare costs rise steeply - SWI swissinfo.ch But apparently there is little or no inflation.. Paris votes in favour of €18-per-hour parking fees for SUVs (thelocal.fr) Trump suggests he would consider a tariff upward of 60% on all Chinese imports if reelected (msn.com) EURUSD

US manufacturing output hits highest level since October 2022 Barry Sternlicht just gave a VERY thoughtful interview about the growing troubles in commercial real estate, ''the office market has an existential crisis right now... it's a $3 trillion dollar asset class that's probably worth $1.8 trillion [now]'' and WSJ - Commercial Property losses hammer banks on three continents BoE most members called for unchanged, 2 wanted a cut and 1 a hike! Polestar : the car without a rear window, and possibly bankrupt UK (probably elsewhere too) Wind Farms are overstating their output — and Consumers are paying for it (always the consumers getting the check book out..) EU agrees on an additional 50 billion euro support package for Ukraine OPEC+ will stick with oil supply cutbacks this quarter to avert a surplus and buoy prices. The group plans to decide in early March whether to extend curbs into the second quarter, the next focus for crude traders Great #Brexit chat below with Rees Mogg - totally caught out in his fantasy world Sentiment : boosted again by lower rates (first-Powell pushed back on March but market still has 140+bps of cuts for 2024) and by #META astonishing revenues, has to be said (1st dividend and $50bn share buybacks...META added $250bn of market cap after hours..just like this, driving wealth effect higher!), and AMZN #AWS mainly, AAPL slow in China but ,JPN, EU, China data deflationary still while U.S data remains strong, ISM yesterday showed a rise in prices paid. First employment data of 2024 coming up! meanwhile CSI hits new lows again >>> Powell might be right, the U.S economy is actually accelerating in short-term, seems overall, worldwide manufacturing confidence improving as factories shrug off Red Sea concerns Markets : XAGUSD - 2024 the year of the break out - chart below GOLD would appear to like life above $2K Mag 7 powering ahead, regional banks hammered last few days (commercial real estate, inadequate loan provisions & MtM losses to bond portfolios), >CSI, SHCOMP lower again, while DAX 17K again and SPX, QQQ regaining highs very easily USDollar swinging within small ranges, no great trend anywhere, CHFJPY continues to hurt many specs trying to short it, clearly BoJ YCC tweak in March will be needed to turn this cross around (SNB on hold doing little it seems) Crude down $3 because peace has apparently broken out in ME, as per Qatari media, news would appear not to confirm this though Middle East crisis live: Israel says Gaza offensive will move into Rafah (msn.com) British forces in the Middle East 'on high alert' for Iranian attacks as America plans retaliation for killing of three US soldiers: 'Big Lizzie warship set to be deployed to Red Sea' as fears grow regional war could erupt (msn.com) US manufacturing output hits highest level since October 2022 (msn.com) Bank of England governor sees next rate move as a cut (msn.com) EU agrees on €50bn aid package for Ukraine as it prepares to enter third year of war with Russia (msn.com) EU Leaders Agree to $54 Billion Ukraine Aid Package as Hungary’s Orban Backs Down - WSJ Apple's Q1 earnings reveal record-breaking quarter in India; CEO Tim Cook reveals big milestone (msn.com) Amazon (AMZN) Tops Q4 Earnings and Revenue Estimates (yahoo.com) Couldn't fail to notice in report - got to be the headline of the day ?? "AI has begun showing up in financial results - just more on expenses than revenue." Japanese bank tanks over 20% after flagging losses tied to U.S. commercial property (msn.com) >>>> banks with too much concentration of risk in US commercial property won't be spared! Commercial Property Losses Hammer Banks on Three Continents (msn.com) Biden signs order approving sanctions for Israeli settlers who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank - CBS News Triple Net Investor on X: "Barry Sternlicht just gave a VERY thoughtful interview about the growing troubles in commercial real estate: Here's what he had to say: "We have a problem in real estate. In every sector of real estate, not just office, because of the 500 basis point increase in rates that was… https://t.co/OZdrpxxBtq" / X (twitter.com) First car without a rear window to make its way on to British roads (msn.com) But... Are Polestar BANKRUPT? (youtube.com) ​​How UK Energy Prices Are Inflated by Wind Farms Overestimating Power Output (bloomberg.com) shocking... and you wonder why consumers are sceptical about 'green' energy and its costs Julius Baer: Greed and Hubris at Bahnhofstrasse (finews.asia) Peter Stefanovic on X: "Well this certainly caught @Jacob_Rees_Mogg off guard. Someone with first hand knowledge of the disaster Brexit has inflicted on UK farmers. @MrDavidCatt1 brilliantly schools Rees-Mogg who is left floundering in the sea of his own fantasy https://t.co/xnrtym3vpy" / X (twitter.com) Brilliant! #brexit SILVER - 2024 - the year of the break out

Powell : data dependent as always, signal is that March pricing is a little optimistic, ''March cut not the base case', while the FOMC dropped the tightening bias in the statement, it said that cuts would not be appropriate until there was more confidence that inflation was heading back to 2%, added that the committee did expect lower rates this year - while a strong labour market would not push back the timing of the first cut, the Fed would cut faster if employment weakened >>> which confirms that payroll data is the key going forward >>> Saxo : FOMC: a March QT taper could serve as an implicit rate cut/Thread(s) EU to delay new green rule in bid to appease protesting farmers. Delay to rules on setting aside land to encourage biodiversity offered as concession amid continuing protests China overtakes Japan as world's biggest vehicle exporter World's biggest iceberg on the move after 30 years Switzerland January manufacturing PMI 43.1 vs 44.5 expected, Riksbank unch, BoE will be unch all as expected - "interest rate can be cut sooner than what was expected in November", the main question is market pricing vs path/speed of rate cuts overall, whether inflation really heads towards their 2% target and when Saxo : Yellen says Coupon issuance is also going to increase in Q2 >>> What is record-high issuance combined with QT going to do? ->steepening of the YC >> Thread The market response to a surprise loss at NY Community Bancorp, with Treasury yields plunging and a drop in broader stocks, hints at deeper concerns about commercial real estate & smaller banks German inflation slows to 2.9% in January from 3.7% in December, lowest level since June 2021. Core CPI slows to 3.4% in Jan from 3.5% in Dec, lowest level June 2022. Energy in deflation, Energy prices dropped -2.8% YoY, Food CPI slowed to 3.8% from 4.5% in Dec US Treasury confirms spending on debt interest now larger than entire Defense Budget.... and will soon surpass entire Social Security budget Markets : JPY strengthened somewhat (softer yields overall-carry peak ?) NIKKEI noticed/short-term peak. CHF weakness didn't last long! markets not interested by swissie weakness ! Huge strain in the 2 largest African economies, Nigeria devalued the naira by about 30% (after another ~30% devaluation last June). And Egypt is under pressure to devalue too, with the pound some 50% weaker in the black market NASDAQ : that 'bearish candle' on charts got confirmed yesterday, SPX500 support is 4800 previous tops/resistance. BofA writes: "...forward returns when sentiment hits euphoria are not appalling in a bull market. Especially when the market breadth is running at healthy levels, such as today’s." BONDS rallied, curve should steepen overall Sentiment : French/German inflation lower, a pretty low ADP employment number in the U.S, tech earnings disappointing/not meeting super high expectations more like, and some issue with few regional banks again in U.S and JPN. Technically, a few 'bearish' daily charts, momentum might change, after this huge risk rally since last October GOLD looks to be about to break higher vs no less than 6 major currencies (vs GBP, EURO, CNH, KRW, JPY and USD) OIL MARKET: Another month of huge revisions to US oil demand data/EIA Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Yellen's🍒on the cake: Coupon issuance is also going to increase in Q2. What is record-high issuance combined with QT going to do? ->🧸steepening of the YC Powell is listening, and a tapering of QT might come to hand. Link to QRA: https://t.co/AjX8YFQMyb https://t.co/8zYuTAYN8R" / X (twitter.com) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸FOMC: a March QT taper could serve as an implicit rate cut. That way, the Fed would still be in line with market expectations to deliver 5 cuts by year-end, fuelling a bond rally. ⚠️That doesn't mean the Fed will deliver such cuts. However, the market will be euphoric." / X (twitter.com) Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could come in March, analysts say (qz.com) Regional banks are back in focus after NY Community Bancorp stock drops 38% in one day | CNN Business Nick Timiraos on X: "Rates unchanged FOMC statement gets a big rewrite. Tightening bias gone, but in a way that says a cut isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate” to cut “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably" to 2% https://t.co/Rzs7fFE8hv" / X (twitter.com) China overtakes Japan as world's biggest vehicle exporter (yahoo.com) Nigeria devalues the naira in bid to attract foreign investors (ft.com) Javier Blas on X: "[ICYMI] COLUMN: No, Saudi Arabia didn't just signaled the end of oil. "What’s true, and has been for a while, is that the world is transitioning away from Saudi crude to American oil — not just from the US, but also Canada, Brazil and Guyana." @Opinion https://t.co/u69xTYf3sG" / X (twitter.com) Trump throws wrench into U.S.-Nippon Steel with vow to block - Nikkei Asia Musk seeks Tesla shareholder vote on moving incorporation to Texas | Reuters Boeing execs stand by 2025-26 financial guidance; near-term focus is safety | Reuters EU to delay new green rule in bid to appease protesting farmers | Farming | The Guardian Benko-Bär: Collardi-Buddy takes over, 250 jobs gone – Inside Paradeplatz Thai court orders election-winning party to end its royal reform campaign in blow to voters who backed change (yahoo.com) India Budget 2024: PM Modi shuns big spending in pre-election budget - BBC News A23a: World's biggest iceberg on the move after 30 years - BBC News Amazing pictures The world’s largest iceberg is voyaging through the Antarctic waters after more than 30 years being stuck to the ocean floor. The frozen mass is almost 4,000 sq km, more than twice the size of greater London, has been drifting at speed and is about to spill beyond Antarctic boundaries 'Almost inevitable' UK will burn more gas and import more energy after Hinkley nuclear plant delayed, experts warn | Climate News | Sky News EURJPY

Spanish, Belgian and (other) farmers joining French and German protests US job openings rise in December to highest level in 3 months, FOMC presser is key later on tonight, all ears on J Pow Alphabet reported better-than-expected revenue and profit for the fourth quarter, but ad revenue trailed analysts’ projections, AMD’s AI revenue forecast gets a massive boost — but apparently not enough for the stock >>> a case of too much priced in the shares?.. Elon Musk said that the first human patient has received a brain implant from his startup Neuralink — and is recovering well U.S Home Prices hit another all-time high in November while affordability remains near record lows - another rather odd 'chart/Thread below French inflation sliding.. at 3.4% from a year ago, slowing from 4.1% in Dec, that’s less than the 3.6% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey Saxo : One thing is certain: Japanese investors will think twice before buying USTs - 10y USTs hedged against JPY offer -1.45% in yield JPM : Concentration Risk among the top 10 stocks is rising and is approaching levels last seen during the peak of the Dot Com Bubble Markets : a slight peak/bearish 'very short-term' QQQ candle yesterday on charts after GOOD and AMD's reports, NVDA is the only Magnificent 7 stock seeing an increase in earnings revisions. (thread) FXland asleep, rates pretty quiet, JGB's got chinned earlier on BoJ comments , recovered on softer JPN data. All about J Powell presser tonight Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸🇯🇵One thing is certain: Japanese investors will think twice before buying USTs - 10y USTs hedged against JPY offer -1.45% in yield - Even if bought unhedged, USDJPY will need to appreciate for such trade to make sense. With BOJ looking to normalize policy that's a risky trade https://t.co/e9lbBYmpUz" / X (twitter.com) January Fed meeting preview: 3 key questions as the FOMC looks likely to push back on rate cut bets (msn.com) US job openings rise in December to highest level in 3 months (yahoo.com) and yet there has been a not insignificant amount of news similar to this UPS lays off 12,000 after pay raises, falling revenue (qz.com) Ian Shepherdson on X: "Absolutely don't care about the jump in JOLTS job openings. Noisy, often revised substantially, and not correlated with future payrolls. The low and falling quits rate, on the other hand... https://t.co/ySoWZsPCGu" / X (twitter.com) Charlie Bilello on X: "US Home Prices hit another all-time high in November while affordability remains near record lows. https://t.co/0zHQkHHUfr" / X (twitter.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "As we approach earnings release for most mega-caps: NVDA is the only Magnificent 7 stock seeing an increase in earnings revisions. The company is almost the sole beneficiary of the recent AI advancements, contrasting sharply with others that have only experienced hype without… https://t.co/0H1Yf0taVe" / X (twitter.com) ECB's Centeno says rate cuts should start sooner rather than later | Reuters Lagarde Comments Suggest ECB Rate Cut In March Unlikely - ECB President Lagarde said the ECB is data dependent and it needs more data especially wage data to determine their next move. The next euro area Q3 labor cost index will be released on March 19. That means a rate cut from the ECB is unlikely on March 13. (Leo He, UBS Knowledge Network) Glynn’s Take: RBA Will Resist Calls to Cut Interest Rates for Some Time - WSJ Cut almost fully priced in for June 2024 Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine (cnbc.com) Volume 167: Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report | by James Butterfill | Jan, 2024 | CoinShares Research Blog Elon Musk’s Neuralink faces brain chip challenge from China (qz.com) Alphabet (GOOGL) Q4 earnings report 2023 (cnbc.com) AMD’s AI revenue forecast gets a massive boost — but apparently not enough, as stock falls (msn.com) Spanish farmers have no advantage over protesting French counterparts, says minister (yahoo.com) Belgian farmers to block Zeebrugge port as French protests spill over - reports (msn.com) Solar farm size slammed by critics (msn.com) #Botley solar - why is it called a 'farm' ?? Food and drink price rise warning as Brexit border changes come into force | ITV News Great ! another #Brexit bonus Elon Implants a Brain Chip, Deepfakes Break X - Elon, Inc. - Omny.fm

US Treasury Department cuts Jan-Mar borrowing estimate to $760bn from $816bn - and estimates $202 bn net borrowing For Apr-Jun (pushed yields and USD a little lower, risk higher) >>> today's 'pre-market release on composition' will be more important for the UST curve The ECB should change three bad habits Ray Dalio commentary - 2024: A pivotal year on the brink Hungary accuses EU of blackmail over Ukraine aid standoff "Stagflation, increased commodity costs, labor costs and benefits to retain talented staff, political upheaval, border failure and dysfunction at the regulatory level [are issues affecting our business]." - Dallas Fed respondent China's 10year yields fall to a 2 decade low on rate cut hopes/deflationary signs Sen. Elizabeth Warren pushes Fed Chair Powell to cut ‘astronomical’ rates, ease housing pressure Mounting foreign turmoil threatens to overshadow Biden’s campaign JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees Tech Earnings Testing Rich Valuations “A few bad inflation prints would likely upset both bond and equity markets, as risk markets could again start pricing a higher probability of ‘hard landing” (still bearish..) Italy’s privacy regulator says OpenAI's ChatGPT tool and techniques used to gather users’ data are in breach of the country’s privacy law The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator surged "from 5.5 to 6.0, highest since Jul'21, on strong inflows to stocks, strong equity market breadth (BofA Breadth Rule up to 44% from 7%) & strong credit technicals." - BofA Hartnett Britain's 'most capable PM'? Starmer opens up record 13-point lead over Sunak in new Ipsos poll. Labour on huge overall lead of 49%-27% over Tories Ryanair's CEO, a huge Boeing customer and hater, thinks the planes are fine Fun fact : Nasdaq’s price-to-book ratio is now larger than Chinese stocks’ P/E multiple Markets >>> all about the Mag 5 starting to report today + FOMC tomorrow, BoE Thursday and NFP Friday >>> plenty of earnings, FOMC, geopolitics, month-end flows to cause spikes in volatility, consider optionality to trade/hedge Treasury Cuts Quarterly Borrowing Estimate to $760 Billion (yahoo.com) Mounting foreign turmoil threatens to overshadow Biden’s campaign (msn.com) Ray Dalio Commentary- 2024: A Pivotal Year on the Brink (yahoo.com) The ECB Should Change Three Bad Habits by Willem H. Buiter & Ebrahim Rahbari - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) important read! Warren pushes Fed Chair Powell to cut rates, ease housing pressure (cnbc.com) SNB president says stronger Swiss franc painful for companies - SWI swissinfo.ch No kidding Hungary accuses EU of blackmail over Ukraine aid standoff (cnbc.com) France protests: Farmers block major roads around Paris over falling incomes - BBC News Haley hits Trump on tariffs ahead of her Wall Street fundraisers (cnbc.com) Blackstone Is Building a $25 Billion AI Data Center Empire - Bloomberg Elon Musk, Bernard Arnault take turns as world's richest person (qz.com) Amazon's bid to buy Roomba maker iRobot is called off amid pushback in Europe (qz.com) Surprise exit of a key Goldman exec is latest shakeup for the Wall Street giant (yahoo.com) ChatGPT is violating Europe’s privacy laws, Italian DPA tells OpenAI | TechCrunch The Western fight against the tide of history - Asia Times Singapore Launderer Slapped With More Charges (finews.asia) India set to be world's third largest economy in 2027: finance ministry (cnbc.com) Boeing planes praised by Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary amid 737 Max 9 issues (qz.com) Renault cancels Ampere IPO but still launching 7 new models | Electrek Who is Britain's 'most capable PM'? Keir Starmer on record 13-point lead over Rishi Sunak in new Ipsos poll | Evening Standard Both sides finally agree! DUP agrees to end boycott of Northern Ireland government - BBC News COPPER - unconvinced about China's effort-easing EURJPY still on trend higher - short-term peak perhaps in short-term