UK Wages excluding bonuses grew by 6.2% in the last three months of 2023 compared with the same period a year earlier (rate cuts pushed further back)
Trump's comments have thrust the Republican front-runner into the center of a political storm and sent shockwaves throughout the Western military alliance
Meanwhile : The CPI for vehicles in China fell by -5.6% in January (year-on-year), back to early 2002 lows (deflation there >>> eventually USDCNH break up ?)
India eyes $100bn investment deal with Switzerland and Norway
German office prices dropped a whopping 10%, and given the slow-moving nature of the asset class, more declines are coming
"Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now. ", while Nigeria, India will be huge gainers over the next few decades
Total boss warns governments risk mis-selling energy transition
France's farmers are angry. They say they're being strangled by a toxic combination of red tape, trade deals, unrealistic prices and ecological measures
UK's Sunak faces a few tough days ahead, inflation likely showing signs of ticking up tomorrow, then a weak GDP data (light recession calls) and in all likeliness loosing 2 by elections on Thursday too
Markets : there is no doubt strong CHF kept/eventually pushed inflation lower, SNB chatter last month was quite clear on CHF, no reason why we can't go to 0.9200 USDCHF, 1.20 GBPCHF (chart below) and 1.0200 EURCH area. Equity markets would notice a firmer U.S CPI (together with strong UK data too) and may well find an excuse to have a correction from these pretty lofty levels, clearly a lot of shorts got 'stretched out' lately. 10's UST well above 4.20+ area heading towards 4.50% >>> strong risk markets (what liquidity issue?), we had a much better/stronger NFP 10days ago, were we to get a stronger U.S CPI, rate cuts will continue to be walked back and risk may well notice eventually (current pricing is down to 4 cuts by Dec 2024 for both Fed and ECB, pretty decent shift from say 2months ago, as Ai related stocks FOMO momentum (mainly) dragged eq indexes to their highs YTD +very much a case of the 'shorts' that got totally smashed lately
UK regular wages grow by stronger than expected 6.2% (msn.com) -- Unimportant if UK enters shallow recession, Bank of England's Bailey says | Reuters (..dont' expect rate cuts too early..)
CNBC's Fast Money on X: "Is FOMO driving stocks higher? Evercore's Julian Emanuel dives into the forces driving what he calls a "super-charged momentum market" and where the dangers lie: https://t.co/5zksMQtQ2V" / X (twitter.com)
Clearly and area of downside risk of high for longer rates Why NYC apartments could become a big problem for NYCB (yahoo.com)
Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Passive funds have overtaken active. That’s changed a lot b/c the number of active managers is down a lot, David Einhorn says in MIB podcast: "There’s entire segments now mostly in the smaller part of the market where there’s literally nobody paying any attention...I view the… https://t.co/aMqxEZ5DXx" / X (twitter.com)
Difference perspective to the 'soft landing consensus' Bloomberg TV on X: "“I think that there is now a higher than 50% chance that we either have a hard landing or no landing,” Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok says on Bloomberg's Surveillance https://t.co/ghSXeRRFLA https://t.co/zUoiBNmJFI" / X (twitter.com)
"Following the data release, researchers from Victoria University in Australia and the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicted that China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That’s down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now. "
Softbank owns 90pct of the stocks, probably helped create this massive squeeze, now many calling ARM the next NVDA SoftBank Shares Climb Again With Arm’s Explosive AI Rally (yahoo.com)
Red tape destroying many small businesses, from farming to finance, much the same, politics favour big businesses!
GBPCHF - this one has been totally cornered in the doom camp for long while - decent probability of 1.20 - and you have some every decent carry!
