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#AAPL : "Consumers should not have to pay higher prices because companies break the law.".....The Justice Department has sued Apple claiming that the iPhone maker has a monopoly, The US is suing Apple for allegedly using its power in the smartphone sector to quash competition from rivals and limit consumer choice - pretty aggressive move, considering the EU is also investigating under digital laws FED ready to cut, market pricing 50/50 for June, very tolerant (bullish risk assets for now..), we have 401K's on highs, stock markets new highs, house prices all time highs, economic activity pretty strong overall, air travel back to pre covid times, you can even earn 5% on USD deposit >>>> we know why but ...clearly doesn't feel like it everywhere...but roaring 20's! and we now have June rate cuts predictions across markets, as SNB started the ball rolling yesterday #USDCHF breaking .90+ next up .9200-.93 area - SNB cut 25bps and slashed inflation expectations (in many ways undermining CHF, as if they want it softer going forward... #EURCHF higher), Norges steady, BoE dovish shift soon (BoE hawks capitulate! 8-1 split vote to hold), meanwhile Turkish CB raised rates to 50% (infl 67%..), Brazil cuts 50bps to 10.75% and hints at more, Czech CB cut its key interest rate for a third straight time amid falling inflation and an effort to help the economy Japanese Households have over 1 quadrillion yen in savings, equivalent to approximately $7 Trillion, a lot of money to be put to work, eventually.. >> Japan's core inflation accelerates to 2.8%, the first increase in 4 months. Japan's core inflation has now been above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 23 consecutive months. EU PMI mixed, divergence around manuf and services, though price pressure lower in March, which will get ECB to talk more about a June cut China’s New Loans to Nonbanking Institutions Hit Nine-Year High Vanguard doesn’t believe the Fed will cut interest rates this year The world is using more oil than ever, raising questions about when global consumption will peak #USDCNH sudden spike , rising in tandem with other USD's and following the competitive devaluation of the JPY too ? Swiss salaries: high, stable, yet not enough for many (salaries high, so are costs..!) Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who sparred with top public health officials in heated hearings about Covid-19 and the government’s response to the pandemic, has found a Democrat to join him in investigating the virus’ origins...will we ever find out exactly ? A new Covid origin inquiry is bipartisan - POLITICO US sues Apple in antitrust lawsuit | CNN Business and EU still not happy with Apple's DMA compliance — antitrust chief says "we will be investigating" new marketplace fees (msn.com) Oil Demand Outpaces Expectations, Testing Calculus on Peak Crude - Bloomberg ING Sees Oil Prices Rising Further on Supply Risk | OilPrice.com Vanguard doesn’t believe the Fed will cut interest rates this year (cnbc.com) Copper price resumes rally as Fed rate signals boost industrial metals - MINING.COM China yuan falls to four-month low, state banks step in | Reuters Bloomberg TV on X: "Jeffrey Rosenberg, systemic multi-strategy fund portfolio manager at BlackRock, says he sees a much more challenging environment for longer-dated maturities coming out of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting https://t.co/axz4cXX0qy https://t.co/7tizqB4Otj" / X (twitter.com) Monetary policy assessment of 21 March 2024 (snb.ch) Norges Bank Keeps Policy Rate Steady At 4.5% | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com) The Bank of England is preparing the ground for lower interest rates (msn.com) Brazil central bank cuts key rate and hints at slower easing - BNamericas Czech Republic's central bank cuts a key interest rate again to help the economy as inflation falls (msn.com) Japan's broader price trends moderate, complicating BOJ outlook | Reuters Euro zone business activity nearly stabilizes: PMI (yahoo.com) First "freeze" Russian assets, then "siphon them off": the choice of words from Brussels cannot hide the fact that the EU is breaking international law (weltwoche.ch) China’s New Loans to Nonbanking Institutions Hit Nine-Year High - Caixin Global Michael Pettis on X: "As China faces rising trade conflict, it is trying to speed up its accession the CPTPP, a free trade agreement among Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. https://t.co/WVb0MdpPc7" / X (twitter.com) Japanese Savers Have a Quadrillion Yen Stashed Away. Here’s How Much That Is - Bloomberg That's a lot savings.. to put to work Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸From the start of March until today, $TLT saw the largest outflows since Jan'22. Why? -Soft landing= rotation from bonds to stocks -QT is likely to target only LT USTs and MBS going forward 🚫🐂Beware of Powell's dovishness: the great bond bull rally is not coming for LT USTs https://t.co/WUPROS6uqA" / X (twitter.com) Johannesburg Faces Unprecedented Water Crisis | TIME terrible state of affairs, good grief International Energy Agency on X: "In a new article for today's @FinancialTimes, our Executive Director @fbirol highlights the economic, industrial, strategic & technological forces driving the transition to clean energy Read why the global energy system's direction of travel is clear ⬇️ https://t.co/zgDtAv4IHB https://t.co/PQsUPnKtN9" / X (twitter.com) Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is an extremely good illustration of Europe's economic suicide. A mere 3 years ago (in May 2021), Swiss company Meyer Burger opened a state-of-the-art solar factory in Freiberg, Germany in order to "revitalize the solar industry in Europe". It was the largest plant for the… https://t.co/1p2tXU57mM" / X (twitter.com) Australia to funnel $3bn to U.K. for AUKUS sub reactors, designs - Nikkei Asia Credit Suisse Headquarters to Become a Campus of Sorts (finews.asia) Barclays and Citgroup layoffs hit investment banking units (qz.com) Weight loss drug Wegovy gets Medicare coverage for treating heart risks (qz.com) Simon Harris in pole position to be Ireland’s next prime minister – POLITICO Swiss salaries: high, stable, yet not enough for many - SWI swissinfo.ch Trouble in paradise? Many in Switzerland have problems Without a doubt, CHF6,788 is a lot of cash. Indeed, Switzerland is often classified as having some of the highest salaries in the world – includingExternal link for those at the bottom of the scale. Even so, money disappears fast. Zurich and Geneva regularly feature towards the top of “most expensive cities” rankings; the Alpine nation also tops The Economist magazine’s Big Mac IndexExternal link. Add to this tax and pension deductions, high average rents (CHF1,412 per apartment in 2022), public transport costs, and ballooning health insurance costs (CHF360 per month), and the eye-watering salaries don’t seem so high anymore.... our recent trip to Zermatt for a few days, was just insanely expensive, must admit, quite hard to think how 'a normal family of 4' these days can afford a ski holiday up there..

Spring finally! FED remains pretty tolerant!.. increased inflation and growth forecasts slightly, and keep dots in place, reflate !... risk took off, usd weakened, metals and commodities higher >>> BoE, SNB (exp signal rate cut in June), Norges (unch) and then US claims, Philly Fed and US PMI The US has $6trn in MM funds + $3trn in cash, JAPAN has near $7trn worth of CASH in JPY to put to work - big picture, there is a lot of debt, but there is also tons of cash around to be put to work!... and while Powell keeps the system awash with liquidities, the bubbly markets will continue to do what they do, FED going to be in trouble next year if inflation is not lower, commodities, crude all higher meanwhile... Bernanke (2008): QE is temporary and the Fed’s balance sheet ($2trn) will soon be lower than when we started. Powell (2024): It’s appropriate to slow the pace of QT fairly soon ($7.5trn) “One of the challenges here is while society wants to see emissions reduced, nobody wants to pay for it,” US immigration inflow of 2.5m for 2023 was significantly higher than the long-term trend of 1m.  This is a key factor behind the combination of still high non-farm payroll addition, slowing wage growth, and rising unemployment.  Slowing wage growth also leads Goldman Sachs to believe core services CPI ex-shelter can continue to come down Zimbabwe, the poster child of hyperinflation, is allowing a free fall in its currency that it’s no longer keen to defend and is instead working on a new exchange rate potentially backed by gold >>>> #XAUUSD trend higher to continue, particularly as the World Gold council found that 62% of CB's around their world want to increase their share of XAU reserves (from 45% in 2022)...and since Gold is only 5% of overall reserves (on average)...demand should last for years... 'Mr Yen' says Japan could intervene if yen falls to 155 - the market will go and test them! Intel prepares for $100 billion spending spree across four US states Saudi Arabia to Take a Huge Step into AI with A $40 Billion Investment Fund Panic mode sets in for Trump as he faces deadline for massive bond The UK government borrowed more than expected in February, but borrowing in the financial year was still on track to be its lowest for four years France March services PMI falls to 47.8.. (forecast 48.8), manufacturing PMI 45.8 (exp 47.5) - pretty dreadful set of data Goldman: “Our interpretation is that Chair Powell and a narrow majority of the Committee feel strongly about not delaying cuts for too long and are targeting the June FOMC meeting for the first cut” Read the FED message, one of the line reads differently than the others ! : - growth stable/remains above potential - unemployment levels at secular lows - Core PCE remains above mandate for years - FED is going to cut 175bps or more over next years European markets live updates: Fed reaction and BoE and SNB decisions (cnbc.com) The Fed - March 20, 2024: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version (federalreserve.gov) Fed still sees 3 rate cuts this year: 'Strong job growth is not a reason for us to be concerned about inflation' | Fortune UK borrowing higher than expected in February (msn.com) Saudi Arabia Set to Invest $40B in AI Under a16z Oversight (techreport.com) Zimbabwe Lets Currency Free-Fall While It Weighs Gold Standard (yahoo.com) 'Mr Yen' says Japan may intervene if yen drops to 155 (ampproject.org) 'Nobody wants to pay for it' | ExxonMobil and Aramco CEOs say green hydrogen is too expensive to replace fossil fuels | Hydrogen news and intelligence (hydrogeninsight.com) “One of the challenges here is while society wants to see emissions reduced, nobody wants to pay for it,” Woods said. “There’s a hesitancy for people to sign up for low-carbon hydrogen.” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told delegates that, in energy terms, the cost of green H2 amounted to the equivalent of $400 per barrel of oil — roughly five times the current price. Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "I'm old enough to remember when The Wall Street Journal said that gold was losing its reserve status in September 2022. Instead, what we've witnessed is a record pace of accumulation of the metal, primarily driven by central banks. https://t.co/l0SncORsaI" / X (twitter.com) EQT CEO warns lack of natural gas storage will trigger dramatic price swings (worldoil.com) Intel prepares for $100 billion spending spree across four US states | Reuters Panic mode sets in for Trump as he faces deadline for massive bond | CNN Politics Texas border enforcement law again blocked in legal whiplash | Reuters Marcel Rohner: «Credit Suisse Was One of the Most Fined Banks» (finews.asia) Amazon's 'Big Spring Sale' could boost revenue by billions (qz.com) Kering warns of slowing Gucci sales as stock falls (qz.com) Is Ether is a crypto security? The SEC wants to know (qz.com)

FOMC expected to hold, focus on dop plot projections for rates and inflation, currently market pricing in a cut in July, decent risk of dop plot going for 2 cuts in 2024 (from current 3 cuts expected). BoE on hold tomorrow, markets expecting a 50% of a cut in June, and still a total of about 65bps of cuts priced in for the year MOVE index (bond vols) closed just below the magical 100 level as we await Fed. Haven't seen MOVE this low going into FOMC in a while... The Tokyo Whale has finally decided to stop buying equities. "The Bank will discontinue purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs)." >>> best part of this NIKKEI momentum gone, that all said, clearly the BoJ is in no hurry to tighten much at all...pretty hilarious moving from -0.10% to zero , when core CPI is near 2 to 2.5% (10y JGB yields fell nearly 8bps yesterday after the event..) - Thread Coinbase, MicroStrategy and Super Micro Computer - all come to market selling convertible bonds together Switzerland’s financial regulator Finma should have the power to rein in bank bonuses if the country wants to prevent future crises, its former chief executive officer said Tuesday. The comments come on the first anniversary of UBS Group AG’s takeover of Credit Suisse in an emergency deal brokered by the government. That followed years of scandals and restructuring at Credit Suisse, with its ultimate collapse raising questions about Finma’s efficacy FT: "The balance of trade in goods hit €28bn in January, its highest level since authorities started tracking data in 2002. Last year, the eurozone recorded a trade surplus of €64bn, in contrast with the record €335bn deficit it suffered in 2022." and yet... EU chamber warns of ‘slow-motion train accident’ with China, says something needs to change Bank of America’s March Global Fund Manager Survey shows fund managers’ cash level of 4.4%, a slight increase from 4.2% the previous month, while allocation to equities increased 7ppt to 28% overweight, a new high since February 2022.  Bond allocation increased 1ppt to 7% overweight Crude will rise above the current consensus view of up to $90 if the Fed cuts rates in coming months, commodity veteran Jeff Currie said in his first interview since joining Carlyle. Timespreads and falling US oil and gasoline inventories also signal a tighter market >>> "Being short oil and commodities in a late-cycle expansion is like being short natural gas in a blizzard,” Jeff Currie Markets : JPY weakens fairly sharply vs basket, after that 'hike' to zero interest rates... differential too big to ignore!.. MOF may well chat its a concern, but what can they do outside verbal interventions ?..probably not a whole lot that would really work for long...tough to trade form here, though the well established JPY shorts out there have NO reason to cover....The fact that BoJ still buying JGB's says it all.. FOMC, all about the dots FOMC expectations: Could CPI and labor data still trigger rate cuts? (yahoo.com) Bank of America Bullishness Defies Doomsayers Ahead of the Fed - Bloomberg Perhaps Mark Cabana summed it up best this morning. The question isn't whether stocks are listening to bonds. It’s whether bonds are listening to stocks, which seem to be screaming loud and clear that the US economy is doing well and companies can thrive even with higher borrowing costs. How have households adjusted their spending and saving behaviour to cope with high inflation? (europa.eu) Navigating currency risk: 2 case studies on harnessing FX options for Swiss Franc stability | Saxo Group (home.saxo) UK inflation falls to two and a half-year low of 3.4% as food pressures ease – business live (msn.com) EU chamber warns of ‘slow-motion train accident’ with China, says something needs to change | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 FT: "The balance of trade in goods hit €28bn in January, its highest level since authorities started tracking data in 2002. Last year, the eurozone recorded a trade surplus of €64bn, in contrast with the record €335bn deficit it suffered in 2022." https://t.co/qtzuOqeND9" / X (twitter.com) Bob Elliott on X: "BoJ delivers about the most dovish hike they could have to move off negative rate policy. Ueda keeping a lot of flexibility to keep easy policy and repeating the lack of urgency to tighten fast. Thread. Yen sold off sharply on the news thru 150 and back to the recent bottom. https://t.co/CBzGiVnAJE" / X (twitter.com) Switzerland’s Finma Needs Power to Cut Bank Bonuses, Ex-CEO Urban Angehrn Says - Bloomberg MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR) Executive Chairman, 10% Owner Michael Saylor Sells 1,550 Shares (yahoo.com) and MicroStrategy sells another $604M of notes to buy 9K Bitcoin (cointelegraph.com) Holcim (Switzerland) Ltd. acquires Cand-Landi Group Reddit's IPO goal is tiny compared to Facebook, Twitter, Snap (qz.com) Shell's EV charging network will quadruple in size by 2030 (qz.com) Far-right AfD peppers Germany's top court with complaints, accused of blocking tactics | Reuters PP297_Elections_europeenne_Opinion_publique_Chopin_EN.pdf (institutdelors.eu) When is the first day of spring in 2024? What to know about the vernal equinox - CBS News EURCHF up GBPCHF 1.15+ and we are on to something big

ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods: “Everyone wants to reduce emissions, but nobody wants to pay for it” , meanwhile crude demand as high as ever...Morgan Stanley revises higher Brent price forecast, higher demand and geopolitics BoJ dovish hike, RBA slightly less hawkish, US Bond market prepping for Dot Plot, with three cuts in question, May off the table, June maybe, July more likely as we speak. FOMC ''has no basis for a dovish tone'', particularly if inflation/growth show signs of pick up into summer SNB sold roughly $150 billion worth of foreign currencies in the whole of 2023, ''to keep imported inflation down'' U.S Congress, White House agree on spending but may still miss deadline. A partial government shutdown this weekend could be brief, but Congress hasn’t left itself much time to act before funding runs out JPM's Mislav: "...equity markets could have a drawdown over the next months both because of growth disappointments, and also due to continued sticky inflation prints and higher for longer Fed; ie, we might end up with the opposite from Goldilocks" Canadian bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing with nearly 800 bankruptcy filings in January 2024 alone/Thread Citi estimates that global cross-asset volatility is near a 15-year low, feeds on itself, as its done for long while, till one day for whatever reason 'it' changes, BoJ shift might have been one of those times, nope China has accused Evergrande of committing fraud totaling $78 billion, making it the largest case of financial fraud in history, dwarfing that of Enron, WorldCom, FTX, and even surpassing Bernie Madoff's $68 billion ponzi Many hospitals in China stop newborn delivery services as birth rate drops Bitcoin crashed to $8900 on Bitmex - weird to say the least! Markets : BoJ dovish hike, after weeks of prepping! JPY weakens, RBA drops hawkish tone (both pretty close depending on how you read it all), FOMC up next - see Saxo's below, 'dot plot' focus! USDollar picks up strength vs JPY,. CHF and AUD, though again no new levels per say. Equity markets should/will struggle a little together with higher USD, if/when 10's UST were to head towards 4.50-4.60%, which is the call on a break of 4.35%+ FOMC Preview dot plot and quantitative tightening in focus | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates within the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. A decision to initiate tapering of Quantitative Tightening is imperative and may be made as early as this month, although it is more likely to occur in May. As inflation proves persistent, markets will focus on the dot plot, likely to show only two rate cuts for 2024 versus the three cuts projected in December. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may reveal higher growth and inflation forecasts for 2024, while we expect 2025-26 to remain unchanged from December's projections. US Treasury yields are likely to adjust higher across tenors, with 2-year yields testing resistance at 4.75% and 10-year yields breaking above 4.35% for the first time since November last year. Congress reaches spending deal, but short government shutdown likely - The Washington Post Bond Traders Prep for New Dot Plot, With Three Cuts in Question - Bloomberg Swiss National Bank sold forex worth nearly $150 billion in 2023 | Reuters Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA Bitcoin Flash Crashed to $8.9K on BitMEX (yahoo.com) what a world Michael Pettis on X: "1/14 A director at the American Enterprise Institute is warning that protectionism has run amok in the US. Nonsense. Protectionist economies are those in which manufacturing is subsidized through direct and indirect transfers from the household sector. https://t.co/oCXLbAyJR4" / X (twitter.com) Morgan Stanley’s Shalett Warns US Stocks at Risk in ‘Dollar Regime Shift’ - Bloomberg ExxonMobil makes first 2024 oil discovery in prolific Stabroek block offshore Guyana (worldoil.com) classic, you know why both countries are fighting over the territories.. China economic numbers boost oil's bull case – The Armchair Trader China Accuses Evergrande of $78 Billion Fraud, Worse Than Luckin and Enron - Bloomberg BlackRock and JPMorgan back $15 billion fund to rebuild Ukraine (qz.com) Goldman analysts weigh in on Tesla slump, highlight key EV election risk (msn.com) Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr resigns after EVs bet goes bad (qz.com) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "What is happening in Canada? Canadian bankruptcy filings are skyrocketing with nearly 800 bankruptcy filings in January 2024 alone. This comes after bankruptcy filings in 2023 jumped nearly 40% year-over-year. Currently, the number of businesses filing for insolvency is at its… https://t.co/QxhkisxOC0" / X (twitter.com) Locals driven out by luxury homes in Swiss mountains - SWI swissinfo.ch Not just in St.Moritz Enrico Letta : « Je veux lancer un cri d'alarme sur le décrochage de l'Europe avec les Etats-Unis » | Les Echos Biden holds narrow lead over Trump in national survey | The Hill Many hospitals in China stop newborn delivery services as birth rate drops | Reuters Chinese equity showing solid signs...January contrarian trade doing the job USDJPY - better not break 152JPY or we go back to the 80's levels ! see here Japanese Yen - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com) 160...180?... anything possible - interest rate differential is still 4 to 5% depending on how you look at it...

Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable - read that again Copper trades up on the year/Saxo Thread & Oil jumps 2% on falling US inventories, drone strikes on Russian refineries, Wheat prices up etc>> entering the part of the cycle where commodities start to thrive #BCOM up etc, IF commods really rally again (as we expect ), inflation will head up again The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis, 3-month annualized change in core CPI moved up to +4.2% in February and After a record 25 consecutive months of negative real wage growth, wages have now outpaced inflation on a YoY basis for 10 straight months. This is a great sign for the American worker that hopefully continues >>> classic..now...Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday that inflation could face a bumpy return to normal after back-to-back reports showed that price pressures within the U.S. economy rebounded at the start of the year >>> not changed our view, and we remain in the 'high for longer' camp As Milton said' inflation is taxation without legislation' (..for most folks, not all) Samsung, LG, SK suspend US construction projects amid soaring costs TSLA will fall to $125 and potentially as low as $44 within the next 12 months warns Wells Fargo EURUSD implied vols (and others) are as low as they were in 2020, at which point vol exploded (Covid), now it will need a trigger again, perhaps Mr Market focuses on XAU leading USD weaker (debt spiral, usd deval etc) OR eventually focuses on a possible Trump 2nd term, in which he may withdraw support for UKR, amongst other things, and this could spell a disaster for Europe, in short-term USDJPY/BoJ is key for USD direction As er February ⁦NFIB small business update, actual average interest rate paid on short-term loans eased to 8.7% (from about 10% 3mos ago) Great 30y UST auction last night, it stopped through by 2.1bp, showing signs of duration extension, auction benefited from higher yields recently (up 20bps in a week) "For the first time since 2021, options volume now surpass shares volume in US single stocks."/GS.....NVDA let that sink in 🙂 Markets : still loving the liquidity, big rotations on-going, miners & copper trade of the day yesterday, finally breaking up... commodities in general, even crude up.. these sectors have been massively 'hated' and left behind for a long while..BoJ,next week, JPY still looking bid (ish) in the face of higher U.S yields Jerome Powell just revealed a hidden reason why inflation is staying high: The economy is increasingly uninsurable (msn.com) Yellen Says US Rates ‘Unlikely’ to Return to Pre-Covid Levels - Bloomberg After years of don't worry it's transitory.. ISDA Submits Letter to US Agencies on SLR Reform – International Swaps and Derivatives Association Ole S Hansen on X: "#Copper trades up on the year with traders now focusing on the Aug high at $4.024/lb. Supported by a tightening supply outlook as Chinese smelters discuss potential production cuts in order to lift processing fees, badly hurt by competition and lack of supply https://t.co/It6w5SK5zB" / X (twitter.com) Oil jumps 2% on falling US inventories, drone strikes on Russian refineries (yahoo.com) David Sheppard on X: "Ukraine going after Russian oil refineries potentially reflects some understandable frustration with the West’s soft-pedal approach to crimping Moscow’s energy revenues But if Russian refined fuel exports fall substantially, impact on pump prices may become headache for Biden" / X (twitter.com) Ole S Hansen on X: "Paris milling #wheat: While the old crop contract (May24) remains in a downtrend, recently hitting a four-year low at €188 before bouncing, the new crop Dec24 contract has established a potential double bottom at €204, confirmed if it manages to hold €212 support https://t.co/qIhyil1Vdn" / X (twitter.com) Jeff Weniger on X: "1/10 Forget Currency Wars. Enter the Pension Wars. Thread." / X (twitter.com) well worth a read Jamie Dimon urges Fed not to cut rates in June: 'If I were them, I would wait' (yahoo.com) Tesla rival BYD has reveals its latest ultra-cheap EV in China (qz.com) Janet Yellen warns inflation decline might not be 'smooth' | Fox Business Lisa Abramowicz on X: "The Atlanta Fed's gauge of sticky inflation has risen to about 5% on a 3-month annualized basis. Inflation is moving in the wrong direction for the Fed, so it's interesting that the market's base case is still that the Fed is going to cut rates by about 100bp by January 2025. https://t.co/gxIUNrusBT" / X (twitter.com) MXN - good point ! Robin Brooks on X: "Markets are completely ignoring the looming US election and possibility of a second Trump term. There's a high likelihood that Trump will go after Mexico as a backdoor for China exports to the US. Meanwhile, this is implied volatility in Mexico's Peso. This is beyond complacent. https://t.co/RmRxoHT9K9" / X (twitter.com) Samsung, LG, SK suspend US construction projects amid soaring costs - The Korea Times Tesla’s stock extends selloff as Wells Fargo joins the bear camp (msn.com) EV euphoria is dead. Automakers trumpet consumer choice in U.S. (cnbc.com) TikTok ban moves forward as House passes bill; fight shifts to Senate (cnbc.com) Today in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss Re Nominates Sergio Ermotti's Successor (finews.asia) USDJPY - little bit of a H&S there - BoJ tweak and 140 USDJPY ??? NASDAQ - great trend - we all know the levels it needs to hold for the momentum bulls XAGUSD - still $25.5/26+ required on weekly basis or even monthly will help!

Toyota, Nippon Steel agree to historic pay hikes ahead of BOJ meeting Japanese companies boost wages in departure from 'lost decades', with the shunto spring wage negotiations mostly concluding on Wed, companies to give their unionised workers an average wage increase of more than 4 per cent, compared with 3.6 per cent last year. That would be the biggest (welcome..!) rise since 1992 U.S Core annualised CPI on a 3mos basis rose to 4.4% (4%) while the 6mos rose to 3.8% (3.4%), Annual CPI is slightly hotter than expected - rose by 3.2% (vs 3.1% expected), and Annual CPI excluding food and energy also rose to 3.8%, despite falling below previous month’s number of 3.9%. (vs 3.7% expected) The US Inflation Rate has now been above 3% for 35 consecutive months, the longest period of high inflation since the late 1980s/early 1990s U.S Labor productivity jumps to 15-year highs! Economy chugging along, need cuts? Put in words : FITCH, on CPI ".. a sober reminder of the tendency for inflation to perpetuate itself." .. Three-month annualized core CPI "has risen to 3.8% in February, up from 3.0% last October. That is not the direction the Fed wants to see." China drops visa requirements for Swiss citizens RRP down to $500mio from $2.5trn in mid 2023 ESG : A majority of investors that picked their ISA based on sustainability credentials actually have their cash in providers classified as ‘worst’ for their environmental impact, new research has revealed WTI Crude right around 200dma of $78 Markets : stable rates, Fed pivot or not, liquidities are still on the rise/Thread. SPX500 new all time highs, DAX joining in too. USDollar pretty quiet/soft ish, focus USDJPY next. Metals ''off highs on slightly higher inflation print'', always strange headline to read.. Japanese workers secure biggest pay rise in three decades (ft.com) Citadel's Ken Griffin says the Fed shouldn't cut too quickly (cnbc.com) Google restricts AI chatbot Gemini from answering queries on global elections (yahoo.com) Jurrien Timmer on X: "Fed pivot or not, liquidity is on the rise again. Overall liquidity, as defined by the Fed’s balance sheet, less reverse repos (RRP) less the Treasury’s cash balance at the Fed (TGA), has been rising since mid-2023, taking stocks with it. 🧵 https://t.co/h50R2N8WgX" / X (twitter.com) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Armed groups 'launch incursion' into Russia; military plane crashes with 15 on board | World News | Sky News Most 'sustainable' investors have money in banks that fund fossil fuels (cityam.com) Tesla Gigafactory in Germany has power restored after arson (qz.com) IKEA cuts prices as inflation cools and costs fall (qz.com) UK mortgage arrears rise 50% amid high interest rates (yahoo.com) China’s huge call on Aussie wine (yahoo.com) Cheers! China Hails Xi as Market Reformer Like Deng in Sweeping Profile - Bloomberg Chinese smartphone giant Xiaomi targets Elon Musk with latest announcement - TheStreet Umsetzung des Volksentscheids: Die 13. AHV fliesst ab Januar 2026 – Gutachten beseitigt Zweifel | Tages-Anzeiger (tagesanzeiger.ch) China Drops Visa Requirements for Swiss Citizens (finews.asia) USDJPY - clear top 150-151 - JPN wages up the most in decades, BoJ coin flip for next week for markets, many hope hey don't , price action been quite mild ahead of meeting

The Fed’s 2% inflation target is a source of growing liberal discontent. Jay Powell is staying hyper-focused on a numeric goal that originated 36 years ago in New Zealand — despite pushback from Democrats. U.S CPI day, big focus on rents as usual, which will split views! Budget : The White House expects the US economy to cool markedly in 2024 and inflation to remain stubbornly, if modestly, above the Federal Reserve’s target, debt to get up to $45 trn within 10years.. BoJ next week going to be a close call ! Russia sacks naval commander after humiliating Black Sea losses. Putin fired Nikolai Evmenov and replaces him with commander of Northern Fleet following setbacks UBS forecasts headline Japanese wage adjustment of +4.3% in the upcoming Shunto, the annual spring wage negotiations.  Though this is not enough to sustain 2% inflation, UBS thinks that the BOJ is likely to end negative interest rates if Shunto wage growth just accelerates from last year GOLDMAN: “.. goods imports from China .. accounted for 11% of total US imports in 2023. The collapse in China’s producer prices has already driven the cost of these imports down by 3%, potentially contributing to disinflation in the US.” XPT : Automotive demand for platinum expected to hit seven-year high this year VIX on 16% = +/- 1pct move in SPX Markets : JPY and NIKKEI reacted a little, all about JGB's going to what looks like a pretty split BoJ next week. Eq markets, lots going on within Mag 7, laggers came back a bit last few days, Trump on #Meta had an impact on the day, U.S CPI up next, ''faites vos jeux, rien de va plus'' Biden’s Budget Sees More Modest Economic Growth, Inflation Above Target - Bloomberg Biden's 2025 budget calls for taxing the rich and corporations (cnbc.com) BOJ chief Ueda slightly tones down optimism on economy (msn.com) UK Gilts: market seems happy with Budget as demand picks up at bond auctions – The Armchair Trader Inflation expected to remain elevated amid higher gas prices, sticky core services (yahoo.com) The Fed’s 2% inflation target is a source of growing liberal discontent (yahoo.com) Yahoo Finance on X: "Everybody thinks the Fed should cut, but we don't, BMO Capital Markets investment strategist @briangbelski tells Yahoo Finance: https://t.co/P18J9uaf04" / X (twitter.com) as discussed with some of you during last few weeks, this is the risk for 2024, that rate cuts get pushed out towards 2025, and 3-4cuts already priced in anyway Russia sacks naval commander after humiliating Black Sea losses Ukraine Destroys Russia's New High-Tech Radar Jammer With US-Made HIMARS (newsweek.com) Automotive demand for platinum expected to hit seven-year high this year (miningweekly.com) Nvidia sell off not indicative of an AI bubble, Dan Ives says (msn.com) U.S. curbs on China to rise, with 'decoupling' in full force, expert warns (cnbc.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The recent surge in gold prices, despite a lack of corresponding growth in assets managed by related ETFs, suggests that central banks' purchases have likely been the primary catalyst for the rally.   Keep in mind: Although there's been a record pace of metal accumulation,… https://t.co/nSUiyPdOUH" / X (twitter.com) ‘Absolute bloodbath’ at RNC as new leadership loyal to Trump purges staff | Donald Trump | The Guardian Swiss minister: India free trade deal offers competitive edge 'for many years' - SWI swissinfo.ch Chinese equities - Pictet Asset Management (am.pictet) Yups! XAGUSD - one of the most amazing perhaps boring chart, beware of boring, one day it wakes up - inflation week can create vol - if GOLD continue you'd think Silver could have a decent catch up at some point - $25.50 or so + on a decent weekly/monthly close is what the bulls are looking for DAX - even the bulls would/should welcome a correction, stretched momentum levels etc

Week ahead : Tuesday: Japan PPI, UK Labour Market report, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US CPI. Wednesday: UK GDP, UK Industrial Production, Eurozone Industrial Production.Thursday: US PPI, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI. Friday: US Industrial Production, US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, PBoC MLF. Saudi Aramco sees global oil demand up 1.5m b/d in 2024 (largely around consensus, but higher than the IEA own forecast of 1.2m b/d). Aramco CEO calls consumption growth "robust" and describes the oil market as "heathy" EURJPY - been in a great trend up since Q2 2022 - room for a decent correction on ECB cutting earlier (April?, probably too early but June) and BoJ moving in March RFK Jr.: How I See The State Of Our Union - 9mins video - worth listening Nvidia is sued by authors over AI use of copyrighted works ISM manufacturing weaker numbers mask an upbeat trend Meta’s ‘consent or pay’ data grab in Europe faces new complaints >>> "If Meta’s latest consent coercion fails, it could — finally — be forced to reform its surveillance business model Data centre developers are seeking connections to the gas grid which could use three times as much power as all existing facilities in Ireland, in a bid to get around the existing moratorium on electricity grid connections in Dublin! Not a layoff! THIS tech giant is asking employees to resign voluntarily; calls it 'Resource Action' Portugal votes as far right seeks kingmaker role Markets : NVDA story, what happened last week/Thread, during Asian session, the 3rd largest company just went from being down 6% to up 3% and now back down 2% in 5 hours, this is not 'normal' USD on back foot still, yields down, ahead of inflation data this week, USDJPY to stay offered ahead of BoJ meeting next week. We take note of NVDA price action, 'a' confirmation that market valuations are stretched no matter how you slice it, QQQ 18K+ and SPX500 5100-3200 should be pretty touch to sustain, DAX 18K+ all big markers, USDollar all about Reals, U.S CPI key. War in Ukraine: The $1 Trillion Race to Rebuild Is Getting Going - Bloomberg M&S Chair Archie Norman Slams Bank of England’s Rate Hikes to Curb UK Inflation - Bloomberg Morning Bid: Accentuating the positive at the BOJ (msn.com) Better Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock: Nvidia vs. Microsoft (yahoo.com) Nvidia is sued by authors over AI use of copyrighted works (msn.com) Pfizer is betting big on cancer drugs after Covid decline (cnbc.com) Can Bayer recover from its chronic pain? (economist.com) Jim Bianco on X: "1/9 This week's story might be Nvidia ($NVDA) and what happens after Friday's massive reversal.  See the big red candle on Friday. 🧵 https://t.co/5aVqKl5agl" / X (twitter.com) Meta’s ‘consent or pay’ data grab in Europe faces new complaints | TechCrunch The AI arms race between the US and China is heating up (yahoo.com) Not a layoff! THIS tech giant is asking employees to resign voluntarily; calls it 'Resource Action' (msn.com) The Banks: “Unrealized Losses” in Q4, Securities Held by Banks, Bank Failures, and the Dropping Bank Count | Wolf Street SuperMacro on X: "ISM manufacturing weaker numbers mask an upbeat trend Last Friday’s ISM manufacturing report was a huge disappointment, with the index sliding 1.3 points to 47.8 as four of its five component indices declined – the New Orders index fell 3.3 points to 49.2, Production fell 2 to… https://t.co/Mzo6vf6oaA" / X (twitter.com) Philipp Heimberger on X: "A journey through the Panama canal https://t.co/6ZgfsHNRUQ" / X (twitter.com) Very cool video Pivotal events in Middle East and U.S. could propel gold prices even higher - WGC | Kitco News Gold prices hit a record high as investors fear inflation, interest rates (qz.com) Switzerland's parliament urges debate on confiscating Russian state assets - SWI swissinfo.ch India signs a trade accord with 4 European nations for $100 billion investment over 15 years (qz.com) Ireland : Cabinet row sparked by surge in data centre gas requests | Business Post Paris has hiked parking charges on SUVs. Now cities like London are taking note (cnbc.com) Labour hires Mark Carney to help unlock billions for spending plans (telegraph.co.uk) Portugal votes as far right seeks kingmaker role (msn.com) Trump denies Carroll's claims after posting $91.6 million bond (cnbc.com) and 'do you have a spare 20bucks ?..https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1766581774006579478 RFK Jr.: How I See The State Of Our Union (youtube.com) NVDA - heading back to trend ? whatever the reason, definitely a big turnaround, engulfing bearish candle etc ect etc EURJPY - been in a great trend up since Q2 2022 - room for a decent correction on ECB cutting earlier (April?, probably too early but June) and BoJ moving in March

Lagarde seems to say they didn't talk rate cuts, bet you they did ! June cut coming. This morning ECB's Rehn already saying ''risks of premature rate cut have substantially decreased - will review natter of rate cuts in April and June' ! >>> having said this, Mr Market is already there! with 95bps of cuts priced in for 2024 Powell , FED will be patient and cut soon, summer time, data dependent, "not far" from where it needs to be for the central bank to start cutting interest rates A rather surprising fact from the Fed's flow of funds/Thread >>> no term premium to speak of , yet anyway, 2s10s curve -41 is quite the opposite, pushing risk assets higher, as Reals headed lower BIG positive from UK budget, is the focus on GDP per head ! that is the only thing that really matters to anyone - other countries shoudl follow and focus minds! Japan's unions demand biggest pay raises in 31 years. Higher wages could prompt the BOJ to starting hiking interest rates >>> a surprise from BoJ in March should not be a surprise anymore - seems their quiet interventions near 150-151 working well.. 0dte volume was near a record high yesterday, accounting for over 54% of the total transactions for SPX options, seems every at it ! GOLD focus clearly, XAG, XPT will eventually break-up and catchup, Copper, Zinc 5week highs too, techs looking interesting Markets : Global markets love a bit of 'interest rate cuts are not far', but all but priced in already.. Under surface stealth moves: equal weight and small caps have outperformed S&P 500 over past month. Semis, NVDA powering ahead still (momentum trades are fun, but prepare(know your exit strategy, just in case) Powell says Fed is 'not far' from the point of cutting interest rates (cnbc.com) Powell: ‘There will be bank failures’ caused by commercial real estate losses | The Hill Big banks are getting what they want from Washington (yahoo.com) Christine Lagarde signals June rate cut as ECB lowers inflation forecast (ft.com) CNN Poll: More than 6 in 10 SOTU viewers had a positive reaction to Biden’s speech (msn.com) Opinion: Biden gave the speech of his life (yahoo.com) Japan's unions demand biggest pay raises in 31 years - Nikkei Asia China doubles down on manufacturing, leaving real estate behind (cnbc.com) METALS-Copper, zinc hit 5-week highs on China trade data, smelter cut | Nasdaq UK The Debt Management Office Gilts Sales Matter More Than The Spring Budget | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Investing with options - Gold optionality | Saxo Group (home.saxo) FX Tech update Technical analysis usdjpy eurjpy audjpy gbpjpy chfjpy | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Triple Net Investor on X: "Barry Sternlicht just gave his views about where the troubles are in real estate Here's what he had to say: "Americans are not back to work, and that's causing significant stress on the office markets... Offices are full in Europe, and they're full in Asia, and they're… https://t.co/CoDdoLcKtl" / X (twitter.com) Gold’s shock rally has analysts grasping for explanations | Kitco News Contrary to previous run-ups last few years on some sort of event-risk, this time Central Banks, China been accumulating XAU for over a year... China's Gold-Buying Spree Continues: 16-Month Streak Challenges US Dollar Dominance (msn.com) A lot talked about miners lagging big time vs XAU prices SentimenTrader on X: "Gold mining stocks are showing some signs of life. The % of miners with a rising 200-day moving average has cycled from fewer than 5% to more than 20%. The other times the stocks cycled like this, miners showed gains over the next 2-3 months every time but once, in 1997, which… https://t.co/UH0V5jRhRH" / X (twitter.com) Japanese household spending logs biggest drop in 35 months in January - Nikkei Asia Brad Setser on X: "A rather surprising fact from the Fed's flow of funds: Foreign demand for long-term US Treasuries (just over $450b) exceed the Treasury's net issuance of l-term Treasuries (just over $400b). That hasn't been the case for a long-time. & it wasn't the expectation for 23 1/ https://t.co/9oJhwupeoF" / X (twitter.com) UK Spring Budget and investors: what the experts said – The Armchair Trader Glencore on X: "Ahead of #GlobalRecyclingDay, learn more about how we recover copper from end-of-life electronics and batteries as we turn what would otherwise be waste, into a valuable resource. Discover more behind the scenes of our #GlencoreRecyling operations here:" / X (twitter.com) Sergio Ermotti - CEO of UBS | In Good Company | Podcast | Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTube Most Valuable Bank Brands: UBS Moves Up in Rankings (finews.asia) Novo Nordisk beats Tesla's market cap after new weight loss drug trial (qz.com) Google and Meta are making billions on Temu's U.S. push (qz.com) Google opens first Asia-Pacific cyberdefense hub in Japan (qz.com) COPPER

ECB meeting, will Lagarde prepare markets for a June move ? Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Junko Nakagawa said the economy was making steady progress towards achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target and signalled conviction that conditions for phasing out its massive stimulus were falling into place Bank of Japan now owns nearly 60% of the entire Japanese government bonds.. Wang Yi says U.S. sanctions on China have reached 'bewildering absurdity'. Foreign minister hails Russia ties in closely watched news conference U.S. Households are now spending a record $573.4 billion on non-mortgage interest payments which for the first time in history is roughly the same as mortgage interest payments Egypt Central Bank raise rates by 6% to near 28%, and let currency 'float', weakened sharpy to 50 pounds to the $ Several undersea communications cables in the Red Sea have been cut, affecting 25% of data traffic flowing between Asia and Europe Tesla: Morgan Stanley cuts EV-maker price target, warns this could be the year Tesla loses money Gold is flying but miners are left in the dirt (for now?) .Cheap targets abound, with some juniors reaching point where investment needs of projects look overwhelming. Platinum market expected to see a deficit of 418K, after a record deficit of 878 in 2023 - WPIC Bullish Bets on U.S. Tech Stocks are at 3-year highs according to Citi Markets : U.S ADP was 140K and JOLTS ( slightly weaker than exp), Powell data dependent, patience, rate cut coming, sticky inflation (higher base at 3+ ?)..markets not really diverge from expectations of about 3x cuts in 2024. ECB unch clearly, Lagarde could well give a nod that a cut is coming in June. USDJPY - it could get nasty if we get a decent BoJ move, particularly with slightly softer US data right now, NFP tom ! Technical analysis gold pointing to 2400 silver to 26 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary:  Gold has resumed uptrend after taking out key resistance levels. The precious metal seems to be pausing gathering strength for next bullish move that is likely to push Gold higher. Indicators are suggesting levels of 2,300-2,400 Despite having established an uptrend Silver is lagging Gold. Strong resistance at 26 likely to be tested, however, but can it also break it? BOJ policymaker signals conviction over price goal as stimulus exit looms | Reuters Japan's major union wins big pay hikes for some members, talks continue (msn.com) How Jay Powell Has Survived Washington - POLITICO Egypt floats its currency and agrees with the IMF to increase a bailout loan to $8 billion (msn.com) Liz Ann Sonders on X: "Worth keeping an eye on employment components in ISM Manufacturing (blue) and Services (orange) PMIs … both are softening and in contraction as of February https://t.co/fKp1hUhbn6" / X (twitter.com) Barchart on X: "Ratio of gold stocks to gold just fell to 0.1 for only the 3rd time in 50 years 👀 https://t.co/nwBh2qwtSg" / X (twitter.com) What the gold rally means for investors (cnbc.com) Gold is flying but miners are left in the dirt Platinum market expected to see a deficit of 418K, after a record deficit of 878 in 2023 - WPIC | Kitco News Wang Yi says U.S. sanctions on China have reached 'bewildering absurdity' - Nikkei Asia US Senate bill targeting China's BGI, WuXi AppTec moves forward | Reuters China Export Growth Jumps as Nation Looks to Bolster Demand - Bloomberg CNBC's Fast Money on X: ""Everything about these companies says 'buy, buy, buy...'" @TimSeymour reacts to $JD's big earnings beat and $3B buyback plan $BABA $PDD $KWEB https://t.co/oNRXzc7ypF" / X (twitter.com) Stellantis to invest $6 billion in Brazil to make hybrid cars (qz.com) Houthi Attack on Ship Off Yemen Kills Three (msn.com) Red Sea data cables cut, telecoms firm says (msn.com) Hunt redefines ‘levelling up’ with focus on Cambridge, Canary Wharf and Surrey | Budget 2024 (spring) | The Guardian The dream of a prosperous life is crumbling visibly for the Swiss - Blick Switzerland is one of the richest countries in the world, and those who work there are expected to enjoy a prosperous life. At least, in theory. In practice, this myth has been shattered over the years. Today, many are suffering financially. Europe kicked out Vladimir Putin’s spies. Now they’re back (ft.com) Africa’s Lost Decade: Economic Pain Underlies sub-Saharan Coups - Bloomberg Morgan Stanley cuts Tesla's price target, warns this could be the year Tesla loses money (yahoo.com) Apple gets squeezed by antitrust regulators on both sides of the Atlantic (yahoo.com) USDJPY - it could get nasty if we get a decent BoJ move, particularly with slightly softer US data right now, NFP tom ! EU50 stocks - good ride since Jan - slower momentum - never hurts to take some P

On to you Jerome Powell - the world is listening >>> The Fed's Killer B's (Bowman, Bostic, Barkin) are all voters who have basically said they are really in no rush to cut rates. Bostic introduced the idea of "pent up exuberance" upside risk today which suggests he's probably on hold for longer as well. Waller's most recent speech was "What's the Rush?" USDJPY hasn't been able to move 150-151+ over the last month -- Some BoJ attendees likely to say that lifting negative rates would be reasonable in March – Jiji >>> against this, mr markets see a very decent carry, JPY to become a bit more volatile over next few months, less one way traffic Apolllo : The vacancy rate for US office is approaching 20%. And this is in a strong economy with a strong labor market. If the unemployment rate starts rising because of the lagged effects of Fed hikes, the office vacancy rate will increase even more GOLD : when into a new cycle (which it looks to be be now), it will take all other metals with it eventually, XAG, XPT, copper etc etc One question is obsessing Tokyo’s financial markets: When will the BOJ exit negative rates? Japan's biggest bank is positioning itself for a liftoff this month Martin Wolf: “China needs a new macroeconomic strategy. This is not about another ‘stimulus’. It is about changing the distribution of income and spending. The leadership does not want to do this. But events will force its hand in the end.” BTC hit new all time highs, followed by a near 10% drop ''biggest bearish engulfing candle ever seen' one can read in many places PBOC head Pan Gongsheng: China has enough room for monetary policies, especially for RRR cuts UBS chief Sergio Ermotti hits out at Europe’s ‘parochial’ view of banks. Regulations stopping lenders growing allows US rivals to dominate, says CEO overseeing Credit Suisse takeover Markets : Mag 7 momentum loss (3 of them quite negative stories, AAPL 4mos lows, NVDA still rocking though), USDJPY didn't like 150-151+ once again (March is a time for a BoJ tweak, if ever), main Eq indices ever so slightly off, after such a huge rally, it should be no surprise if we got a 5% correction say. Gold 'entering' a new phase, other metals to follow eventually - plenty of calls now in this direction, all about real rates! US services sector slows in February; inflation moderating (msn.com) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸QT tapering is coming faster than most expect. If the $60b UST QT cap is not reduced, the Fed will runoff $170b bills in the next 12 months, biting on mkt liquidity. Waller may be looking to a reverse “operation twist” which will benefit ST UST More👉 https://t.co/nLZGape2LL" / X (twitter.com) What to watch with Fed Chair Powell heading to Capitol Hill Wednesday (cnbc.com) Japan’s MUFG (8306 JP) Preps Its Trading Strategy for the End of Negative Rates - Bloomberg Kitco NEWS on X: "Commodities at a Turning Point: Anticipating a Breakout - Tavi Costa https://t.co/A5Ik1cY6n6 https://t.co/147fGKrBRZ" / X (twitter.com) these guys are always bullish metals, but still, few good points there !? This probably more important CrossBorder Capital on X: "This is important👇👇👇Break coincides with rising term premia on US Treasuries" / X (twitter.com) Yahoo Finance on X: "“We think the Mag Seven is going to become the Lag Seven as they’re going to end up consolidating in here,” Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson says. “You’re starting to see that happen with Apple consolidating and … we’re going to start to see a broadening out in this market.” https://t.co/j3fAIMjzzS" / X (twitter.com) Michael Pettis on X: "Martin Wolf: “China needs a new macroeconomic strategy. This is not about another ‘stimulus’. It is about changing the distribution of income and spending. The leadership does not want to do this. But events will force its hand in the end.” https://t.co/DODnbK8G5z via @ft" / X (twitter.com) Craig Shapiro on X: "The Fed's Killer B's (Bowman, Bostic, Barkin) are all voters who have basically said they are really in no rush to cut rates. Bostic introduced the idea of "pent up exuberance" upside risk today which suggests he's probably on hold for longer as well. Waller's most recent…" / X (twitter.com) Britain Isn’t Such a Basket Case Anymore, at Least to Investors - BNN Bloomberg A lot of work to be done !! ‘It’s like buying an iPhone and not having a cable’: UK’s bid for net zero in the balance due to grid ‘blind spot’ | Energy industry | The Guardian >>> from next year, engineers will need to roll out more than 100km (62 miles) of electric cabling every day until 2040 if the government hopes to power the UK towards its climate goals, according to new data. City braces for Hunt’s budget with 2p national insurance cut expected – business live (theguardian.com) Emmanuel Macron on X: "Who initiated the war in Ukraine? Who is threatening with nuclear weapons? Let's be clear about what is happening in Europe. https://t.co/L3tjx6hBXz" / X (twitter.com) Biden v Trump round two: How we ended up with the presidential race that no one wants | ITV News The hidden Trump and Biden vulnerabilities in their big Super Tuesday wins - POLITICO UBS chief Sergio Ermotti hits out at Europe’s ‘parochial’ view of banks (ft.com) DAX - near 20% rally within 4months may need to take a healthy breather

SPX500 run : ''once in a life time spectacular run last 3 to 4months'', unless we go back pre mid 60's. HSI down 2% in response to China's annual National People's Congress, muted reaction to the 5% GDP target. Powell's testimony key (will probably want more good news on inflation, patience required?) and US job report later on, with UK budget and ECB meeting in between >>> Often talked about Mag 7 has been more like Mag 4 YTD (less TSLA, GOOGLE and APPL ) and a lot of GOLD 'break up' calls now... (XAG and XPT should be in there soon too) "Chinese local governments are pivoting from a reliance on property investment to developing hubs for cutting-edge industries after more than half of the Chinese mainland’s provincial-level regions missed their GDP targets for 2023." >>> local rates/yields 10y lows (3pct deficit target same as 2023, over 7% on defense, planning to export more stuff, which the RoW might not want or need..) TCJA“.. the evidence is in, and the Tax Cut and job acts looks set to be remembered as an outstanding fiscal disaster. By 2027, it will have cost almost $2 trillion, while failing to deliver the promised benefits.” France pushes EU for financing plan to drive Defense Spending >>>> EU defense, war bonds are coming very soon, only a question of time and size EQT said on Monday it would curtail nearly 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day of natural gas production starting late February due to the current low price environment A Greenland start-up is being accused of doing titanic damage to the environment by shipping ice from glaciers over 100,000 years old to be used in cocktails served at high-priced bars in Dubai Harvard endowment's liquidities/Ackman's thread BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF reaches over $10 billion in AUM Everyone seems to be running out of reasons to be negative — even well-known worrier Nouriel Roubini Ships entering Yemeni waters must obtain permit, Houthi minister says U.S. debt, which is the amount of money the federal government borrows to cover operating expenses, now stands at nearly $34.4 trillion, as of Wednesday. Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett believes the 100-day pattern will remain intact with the move from $34 trillion to $35 trillion. “Little wonder ‘debt debasement’ trades closing in on all-time highs'' France Pushes EU for Financing Plan to Drive Defense Spending - Bloomberg China sets GDP target of 'around 5%' for 2024 (cnbc.com) US construction spending unexpectedly falls in January | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 By posing local-government investment in manufacturing as the alternative to property investment, this article suggests the problem: neither form of investment is about economic sustainability, and both forms are about achieving politically determined GDP growth targets." / X (twitter.com) America's Big Tax Cut Wasted Almost $2 Trillion - Bloomberg The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 days (cnbc.com) Apple just announced the M3 MacBook Air — how to preorder now (yahoo.com) shareholders not impressed --- Apple China iPhone sales plunge 24% as Huawei's popularity surges (msn.com) Amazon, Nvidia and Stock Market Records: Where Next for the S&P 500? - Bloomberg It usually takes a while between increase of insider selling and 'peak markets' - but insider selling sure is quite prominent these days, Bezos $8.5bn, Waltons $11bn+, Zuckerger, Dimon, and many others Bill Ackman on X: "The substantial majority of the @Harvard endowment is invested in illiquid assets, principally private equity, real estate, and venture capital. Not reflected on the balance sheet are commitments to new funds of the same type. Like most endowments, @Harvard models expectations…" / X (twitter.com) Even the Uber-Bear Nouriel Roubini Is Upbeat (But He's Still Worried) - Bloomberg BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF reaches over $10 billion in AUM - Crypto Briefing Ships entering Yemeni waters must obtain permit, Houthi minister says | Reuters Germany accuses Russia of waging an ‘information war’ after alleged military leak | Germany | The Guardian Startup shipping Arctic ice to Dubai bars from Greenland (nypost.com) Is this really necessary... Alef Aeronautics, SpaceX-backed flying car startup, touts pre-orders (qz.com) Star dune: Scientists solve mystery behind Earth's largest desert sands - BBC News Ex-Trump Org CFO Allen Weisselberg to plead guilty to perjury (cnbc.com) A majority for the 13th AHV pension: The SVP betrayed by its own electorate (blick.ch) Zurich voters approve extension of runways at airport - SWI swissinfo.ch PLAT-XPT - cost of production around $800-900..