Lagarde seems to say they didn't talk rate cuts, bet you they did ! June cut coming. This morning ECB's Rehn already saying ''risks of premature rate cut have substantially decreased - will review natter of rate cuts in April and June' ! >>> having said this, Mr Market is already there! with 95bps of cuts priced in for 2024
Powell , FED will be patient and cut soon, summer time, data dependent, "not far" from where it needs to be for the central bank to start cutting interest rates
A rather surprising fact from the Fed's flow of funds/Thread >>> no term premium to speak of , yet anyway, 2s10s curve -41 is quite the opposite, pushing risk assets higher, as Reals headed lower
BIG positive from UK budget, is the focus on GDP per head ! that is the only thing that really matters to anyone - other countries shoudl follow and focus minds!
Japan's unions demand biggest pay raises in 31 years. Higher wages could prompt the BOJ to starting hiking interest rates >>> a surprise from BoJ in March should not be a surprise anymore - seems their quiet interventions near 150-151 working well..
0dte volume was near a record high yesterday, accounting for over 54% of the total transactions for SPX options, seems every at it !
GOLD focus clearly, XAG, XPT will eventually break-up and catchup, Copper, Zinc 5week highs too, techs looking interesting
Markets : Global markets love a bit of 'interest rate cuts are not far', but all but priced in already.. Under surface stealth moves: equal weight and small caps have outperformed S&P 500 over past month. Semis, NVDA powering ahead still (momentum trades are fun, but prepare(know your exit strategy, just in case)
UK The Debt Management Office Gilts Sales Matter More Than The Spring Budget | Saxo Group (home.saxo)
Triple Net Investor on X: "Barry Sternlicht just gave his views about where the troubles are in real estate Here's what he had to say: "Americans are not back to work, and that's causing significant stress on the office markets... Offices are full in Europe, and they're full in Asia, and they're… https://t.co/CoDdoLcKtl" / X (twitter.com)
Contrary to previous run-ups last few years on some sort of event-risk, this time Central Banks, China been accumulating XAU for over a year...
A lot talked about miners lagging big time vs XAU prices SentimenTrader on X: "Gold mining stocks are showing some signs of life. The % of miners with a rising 200-day moving average has cycled from fewer than 5% to more than 20%. The other times the stocks cycled like this, miners showed gains over the next 2-3 months every time but once, in 1997, which… https://t.co/UH0V5jRhRH" / X (twitter.com)
Brad Setser on X: "A rather surprising fact from the Fed's flow of funds: Foreign demand for long-term US Treasuries (just over $450b) exceed the Treasury's net issuance of l-term Treasuries (just over $400b). That hasn't been the case for a long-time. & it wasn't the expectation for 23 1/ https://t.co/9oJhwupeoF" / X (twitter.com)
Glencore on X: "Ahead of #GlobalRecyclingDay, learn more about how we recover copper from end-of-life electronics and batteries as we turn what would otherwise be waste, into a valuable resource. Discover more behind the scenes of our #GlencoreRecyling operations here:" / X (twitter.com)
COPPER
