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Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to work with counterpart Vladimir Putin to "rejuvenate" their countries as the pair started a day of talks in Beijing, saying China would "always be a good partner" of Russia, according to Chinese state media U.S CPI ever so slightly softer, yet still sticky inflation (and US services core inflation is still running hot at 6% annualized) retail sales were softer and that pushed UST yields lower, overnight OZ employment data was softer at 4.1% in April (exp 3.9%) and JPN GDP was weaker at -2% annualised for Q1 (exp -1.5%) >> markets pricing in 2 cuts by end of 2024 (up from 30bps at end of April) The US Inflation has now been above 3% for over 3 consecutive years, longest period of high inflation since the late 1980's AND US Conference Board Leading Economic Index -13.1% off its previous peak, not a great mix UBS upgrades European equities (excluding UK) in its regional quantitative framework ranking by two notches, placing it above US and Emerging Markets (EM).  The pecking order is now Japan, UK, Europe, EM, and US Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has voiced open frustration at the government’s failure to address the question of a post-war plan for Gaza A U.S. judge on Wednesday rejected Tesla's bid to dismiss a lawsuit accusing Elon Musk's electric car company of misleading owners into believing that their vehicles could soon have self-driving capabilities Chinese property stocks up nearly 10% again, 3rd double-digit daily gains, after the news the other day "China is not just exporting too much stuff; it’s also exporting its economic problems. Xi intends to maintain Chinese jobs and factories at the expense of other countries’ workers and companies, to avoid ... potentially disruptive reform at home" /Atlantic GOLD outperformed miners for over 3years, last 3months are different, miners back US financial conditions are now the easiest since 2021 = risk rally Secretary Blinken in Kyiv: "We're bringing Ukraine closer to — and then into — NATO. We'll make sure that Ukraine's bridge to NATO is strong and well-lit Holland has a government - finally Trump and Biden agree to debate on June 27 - that'll be fun BMO: “.. it has become clear to us that we underestimated the strength of the market momentum .. As such, we are increasing our 2024 S&P 500 price target to 5,600, which currently represents the highest forecast based on the latest Bloomberg strategist survey. .. the market is behaving in a similar fashion to 2021 and 2023 – years where we did not give enough credit to the strength of market momentum, something we are trying to avoid this time around.” [Belski.] China Has Gotten the Trade War It Deserves - The Atlantic China Property Stocks Gauge Jumps on Proposal for Home Purchases - Caixin Global China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification - Bloomberg as GOLD share of reserves rise to highest since 2015 Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike plans | Reuters Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.1 per cent (msn.com) Gold purchases increase by 47% in Belgium (brusselstimes.com) Israel's defence minister attacks Netanyahu over Gaza future - BBC News A Free, Prosperous, and Secure Future for Ukraine - United States Department of State Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 41 over past day (kyivindependent.com) Vladimir Putin strengthens friendship with Xi Jinping on state visit to China (msn.com) China-Russia: an economic ‘friendship’ that could rattle the world (yahoo.com) New Dutch Government to Crack Down on Migration, Green Measures (yahoo.com) Dell to penalize hybrid employees who don't work in the office enough (qz.com) Schumer’s AI Plan Urges Billions in Spending to Challenge China (yahoo.com) Tesla must face vehicle owners' lawsuit over self-driving claims (msn.com) Are UK markets ready to bounce back? UBS says yes (msn.com) Sir Keir Starmer to launch Labour’s key election doorstep offer to voters (msn.com) UBS-Entlassungsrunde gestartet: Ü50 und Risk betroffen – Inside Paradeplatz #HSI picture perfect - Jan trade

Jerome Powell might be getting a little worried that the battle will go on much longer than expected....so let's hear about that CPI shortly ! >>> notable weakness in U.S macro data last couple of weeks, pushed rate cut expectations back to 2+ before year-end and USDollar clearly under the cosh since (peak rates = peak USD ...quite how far it would go is ZE question though vs other fiat currencies, would tend to think #AUD could have a run eventually with metals-commods and China on the 'mend' and GBP why not - most hated currency in the world, other than JPY !) Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said monetary policy is in a good place, adding that the central bank shouldn’t be in a hurry to cut interest rates. Macron said he would be open to seeing a major French bank being taken over by a European Union rival in order to spur the deeper financial integration he sees as critical for the bloc’s future prosperity Enovix Begins Customer Sampling of EX-1M Batteries Biden quadruples tariffs on China EVs and targets chip imports as a trade war intensifies. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said Biden won't allow a second wave of the “China shock” of the early 2000s U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April The Biden administration is encouraging Arab states to participate in a peacekeeping force that would deploy in Gaza once the war ends China is considering a proposal to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes Turkish authorities said Tuesday they arrested 544 people suspected of links to preacher Fethullah Gulen, whom President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses of being behind an attempted coup in 2016 BofA: Electricity inflation is the highest in 40 years, just as data center & AI demand surge Euro Area April Wages Rise 3.02% Y/y (down from 3.35% YoY in March): Indeed Hiring Lab - Bloomberg Fed’s Powell is unfazed by the latest hot inflation reading (msn.com) Mester Says Fed Can Hold Rates Steady, Not In a Hurry to Cut (yahoo.com) Fed's Schmid says he is prepared to be patient on policy (msn.com) The Fed Tacitly Takes the UBS View on Stricter Capital (finews.asia) Overdue Bills Are Rising With US Debt Delinquencies, Fed Survey Shows - Bloomberg Traders Are Ready for Dollar to Drop After US Inflation Data - Bloomberg US encouraging Arab states to join multinational postwar force in Gaza (ft.com) Euro Zone wage concerns keep ECB cautious on rate cuts | Luxembourg Times (luxtimes.lu) China Considers Government Buying of Unsold Homes to Save Property Market (yahoo.com) Biden accuses China of ‘cheating’ on trade, imposes new tariffs - Carbon Brief Interest rates and RRR may see cuts - People's Daily Online Biden slaps 100% tariffs on China EVs as trade war ratchets up (qz.com) Copper: at the centre of the metal supercycle​ - The Oregon Group - Investment Insights Copper up over 30% in six months, approaching five year high – The Armchair Trader Ole S Hansen on X: "#Copper is repeating what gold did back in March and April: racing higher without looking back. Apart from continued momentum, strengthened by the latest breakout, prices are also being supported by short covering. In the past two COT reporting weeks to 7 May, speculators looking… https://t.co/D533M27Dqi" / X (twitter.com) Ole S Hansen on X: "Saxo's "2024: Year of the metals" theme, highlighted in our Q1 Outlook continues to gather momentum with our preferred metals of gold, silver, copper and now also platinum continuing higher. Copper's latest surge resembling a short-covering squeeze while platinum has finally https://t.co/OdoO3rNUmY" / X (twitter.com) PLAT #XPT Google I/O 2024 in 5 minutes (youtube.com) Macron Puts French Banks in Play With Plan to Transform Europe (msn.com) Google's new Gemini AI can remember your license plate number (qz.com) Exclusive: U.S. and Taiwan navies quietly held Pacific drills in April | Reuters Turkey arrests more than 500 over suspected ties to Erdogan foe (msn.com) UK real wages grow without change in productivity (proactiveinvestors.com) Not a great combo ! Vodafone returns to growth after cost cuts, as Three merger talks continue (msn.com) Enovix Begins Customer Sampling of EX-1M Batteries (yahoo.com) The 'Big 4' Short Position in Silver Rises Again | SilverSeek

U.S PPI today, U.S CPI and retail sales tomorrow + Fed speakers and more A lack of available space on container ships, mainly due to the big detour taken by shipping companies round the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the unstable situation in the Red Sea, is causing delays for many Chinese exporters. And as a result, shipping rates from Asia are spiralling #Maersk #HLAG #Costco JPN 10y JGB yield shitting 95bp, 30y 3.05%, lifting all long-ends, so net net JPY weaker still, piecemeal deal not working.. Bloomberg: "Biden’s plan to hit China with more tariffs is mostly symbolic"/THREAD China begins selling long-term bonds to stimulate economy, first tranche out this Friday, should continue to support #SHCOMP #HSI China creates its largest ever quantum computing chip Yellen to Xi : You buy my UST's and I'll put in a good word to Biden about those tariffs..China then telling Asians to stop buying NVDA chips and buy theirs (different quality mind..), definitely a few things going on behind the scenes.. Negara doesn't want to use rates to prop up currency.. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he finds the lack of inflation progress last quarter concerning and favors keeping rates steady until there are further signs that the metric will return to the central bank’s 2% target To put things into perspective. All US stocks are now worth 187% of US GDP, and the rest of the world's equities are worth only 61% of World GDP ex-US. Is this difference in valuation justified? (Charts via Goldman) 0DTE options now account for ~50% of options volume in the entire S&P 500. >>> ie, short-term-daily 'views & positioning' can change Very quickly U.S new home median sales price falls to lowest since June 2021 (400K) UK Payrolls -85,000, unemployment up to 4.3% >>> rate cut exp to shift again?, just by the book, Pill out already "Not unreasonable to believe that over summer we will see enough confidence to consider rate cuts." JPMORGAN: “.. earnings season is just about done .. growth came in better than consensus expected, at +5% y/y ..” But “excluding Mag-7, S&P 500 EPS growth is -2% y/y, the 5th consecutive quarter of negative growth .. Meanwhile, the percent of companies guiding higher rose vs last quarter, and those guiding lower dropped dramatically. We dont take comfort on the improved guidance, as the optimism on earnings has gotten ahead of the economic momentum.” [Kolanovic] Fed’s Jefferson calls for holding rates steady until inflation cools further (msn.com) Yellen says Chinese response possible on expected US tariff action (msn.com) You buy my UST's and I'll put in a good word to Biden about those tariffs.. Yellen been passing the message in Asia...Japan would appear to be 'letting' rates, JGB yields move higher (it needs a good move to help JPY) but in : Malaysia won't use monetary policy as tool to prop up ringgit (cnbc.com) China begins selling long-term bonds to stimulate economy | MENAFN.COM Beating US Sanctions, Chinese Scientists Achieve Mass Production Of Optical Chips At Low Cost (msn.com) China’s Exports Are Held Up Due to Tight Shipping Capacity; Sea Freight Rates Surge (yicaiglobal.com) China creates its largest ever quantum chip — and it could be key to building the nation's own 'quantum cloud' | Live Science Doubts Over Intervention After Yellen Spurs Weak Yen Bets (yahoo.com) Yellen pretty much told MOF to hand over USDJPY interventions to BoJ, and concentrate on slowly rising rates... no surprise BoJ cut bon buying, rates reacting #JGB 30y yields above 2%, JPY doing little, it's one or the other! It's the currency or the bonds, got to make a choice, can't have it both ways, China same/similar https://www.youtube.com/watch?si=XNoJGID-DkkrsNE7&v=8V9ypoULc0I&feature=youtu.be '''I Delivered Food To Find Out…Can These Apps Survive?''' #doordash #uebereats #grubhub Protesters attempt to storm Tesla’s factory in Germany | CNN Business ''As many as 800 activists gathered outside Tesla’s factory near Berlin Friday to protest its expansion plans, and some of them clashed with police as they attempted to break into the plant'' MacroMicro on X: "🚢Shipping Prices Soar📈: Is Another Supply Chain Crisis Looming? 🧵 A thread 1️⃣As of 5/10, the SCFI has surged past 2,300 points, marking a new high since September 2022, with a weekly increase of approximately 18.8%. https://t.co/ZDMdbTVSjs" / X (twitter.com) UK jobs market cooling as unemployment rises, but wages still strong – business live (msn.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/4 FT: "China is planning to turn a tropical island province roughly the size of Belgium into the world’s largest duty-free shopping zone, as it tries to persuade shoppers to buy their luxury goods at home and stimulate a lagging domestic economy." https://t.co/GWxzSaH7Lu" / X (twitter.com) UBS and the End of the Honeymoon (finews.asia) Microsoft, Amazon, Pfizer and others invest $16 billion in France (qz.com) #copper

Week ahead : April PPI and Powell speech (Tuesday), April CPI and retail sales (Wed), Phily Fed Thursday and yes, no less than 12 Fed speakers this week.. US & China trade relations in check, UK GDP was stronger than expected last week, excess savings fro Covid times all but dried out now in the U.S (Walmart earnings for a good sample of where we stan don this) The likes of GS sees April headline CPI +0.37% m/m, core +0.28% +3.42% YoY, +3.61% YoY And they are quite bearish Retail Sales Data center power demand is set to more than double from 2023 levels by 2028, which (confirms) adds to the bullish thesis for copper, utilities, and of course all of the components that go into data centers as they scale up BoJ announces smaller JGB purchase operation for the first time since ending YCC China fires starting gun on $140bn debt sale to boost economy. PBoC and finance ministry firms up plans for long-dated bonds to support investment Russia finds huge oil and gas reserves in British Antarctic territory FT - Can Europe’s economy ever hope to rival the US again? Trump’s Plans for the Fed Would Revive 1970s-Style Inflation Japan's 30-year government bond yield rises to 2.03%, the highest since 2011 Hang Seng Index just topped 19,000 again. Rally +27% from the low. And even after that gain, index still trading below 10x earnings #HSI Clients of a Scottish law firm that went bust, leaving tens of thousands of families in legal limbo, fear they are at the centre of “the next Post Office” scandal Mount Everest saw two record-breaking climbs on Sunday with a Nepali sherpa making the most ever summits and a British climber setting the record for a foreigner Blinken says US has not seen Israeli plans to protect civilians, post-war plans for Gaza Gold as a strategic asset Today’s longest turbine blades have become too big to be delivered to inland wind farms. They can be taken only by ship to offshore sites, where building costs are far higher Von der Leyen struggling for majority in European Parliament Inflation and consumer spending updates ahead: What to know this week (yahoo.com) How Walmart became America’s largest grocer (cnbc.com) Collins becomes latest Fed official to warn rates will likely stay higher for longer (yahoo.com) Can Europe’s economy ever hope to rival the US again? (ft.com) A reminder that once you strip out population and dollar strength (which doesn't impact living standards in Europe), countries in the EU are converging with the US, not falling behind Americans are feeling worse about the US economy amid inflation concerns (yahoo.com) Antony Blinken says US has not seen Israeli plans to protect civilians, post-war plans for Gaza (thehill.com) Trump’s Plans for the Fed Would Revive 1970s-Style Inflation by Maurice Obstfeld - Project Syndicate (project-syndicate.org) China fires starting gun on $140bn debt sale to boost economy (ft.com) The case for a strategic allocation to gold | World Gold Council What makes gold a strategic asset? Gold has a key role as a strategic long-term investment and as a mainstay allocation in a well-diversified portfolio. Investors have been able to recognise much of gold’s value over time by maintaining a long-term allocation and taking advantage of its safe-haven status during periods of economic uncertainty. China is buying gold like there's no tomorrow, jacking up prices - Times of India (indiatimes.com) Arnaud Bertrand on X: "Let's see... US car companies sold millions of cars in China in 2023 (2.1mn cars for GM https://t.co/AioSsphawj, over 600k cars for Tesla https://t.co/CEhuT6ZRs7, over 400k cars for Ford https://t.co/zgIXhzIPey, etc.) but there "are currently no Chinese-branded passenger vehicles…" / X (twitter.com) makes you wonder! Joe Biden will double, triple and quadruple tariffs on some Chinese goods, with EV duties jumping to 102.5% from 27.5% | Fortune Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 on X: "Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 13 May 2024. Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/1NsPGy2eF6 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 https://t.co/H2eizk3lwS" / X (twitter.com) Georgia: Tense standoff on streets of Tbilisi as protesters try to block MPs from entering parliament | World News | Sky News Amazon to invest $1.3 billion in France, create 3,000 jobs (msn.com) Law firm’s collapse ‘is the next Post Office Scandal’ (thetimes.co.uk) ...don't put your home in a trust...to avoid inheritance tax, they often don't work..and leave you in a mess FOUR Tory MPs face Angela Rayner-style probes into tax affairs (thelondoneconomic.com) Surely not! Clinton adviser says Biden campaign ‘doing it all wrong’ | The Hill Von der Leyen struggling for majority in European Parliament - Brussels Signal Wind turbines keep getting bigger (economist.com) Mount Everest: Record summits made by Nepali and British climbers - BBC News Anything related to #URA has not even began (LONG.term), 2011 levels were pre Hiroshima

U.S claims slightly softer, yields and USDollar soften a little, vols lower, 30's UST auctions flies by and rates get another nudge lower, U.S equities close on the highs >>> bottom line the number of U.S numbers are starting to weaken/roll over, fwd indicators had a hint recently (NFP, credit, consumer confidence and both sides of the PMI's)... all this with an asymmetric FED, so things can change quickly MS on next week’s #CPI print: “The Descent Begins, “.. We forecast core CPI inflation fell to 0.29%M in April (0.3%M cons, 3.6%Y annual rate). Core goods remain in negative territory, and services come in lower with softer car insurance inflation.” Janet Yellen will soon be telling all that there is no issue for U.S Treasuries, she has been flying to China and Japan a lot recently.. Copper, Gold, metals loving it all (Rate peak-USD peak, whether USD weakens is another story, BoJ needs to play a part in this) BoE opened to a summer cut, 7-2 vote, inflation news are encouraging, A forecast and recession beating GDP figure of 0.6% today showed the UK’s strongest expansion in over two years, not bad after all !...GBP holding up well too, as markets sees FED cut coming S&P 500 stock buybacks are projected to hit a record $1.075 trillion in 2025, a 16% increase from this year's total #HSI Hong Kong stocks rise to 8-month highs after China property relief, high dividend-yielding stocks in focus Battery prices in China are ''crashing'' (good news for consumers, starting to change the game, not such good news for EV makers though) BP wants to buy Tesla's EV charging infrastructure; as the latter struggles, the former sits on a cash reserve thanks to several years of high oil prices DB : Germany, looks like things are picking up in the German industry, especially energy-intensive industries make up lost ground Ikea CEO says sales are the slowest they've ever seen BofA Fund Manager Survey - Investors' exposure to China remains extremely low ... Hong Kong stocks rise to 8-month highs after China property relief, high dividend-yielding stocks in focus (msn.com) US weekly jobless claims rise to highest level since August of 2023 (msn.com) Bank of England keeps interest rates at 5.25% but hints at a June cut | Interest rates | The Guardian FTSE 100 Live 10 May: UK exits recession as GDP grows faster than thought, index at another record (yahoo.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from Germany! Looks like things are picking up in the German industry, especially energy-intensive industries make up lost ground. DB just updated their prediction for manufacturing production in 2024. It's not as bad as they thought before, now expecting a decrease… https://t.co/9n2ZwDvFAr" / X (twitter.com) Gaza war: Netanyahu vows to defeat Hamas in Rafah despite US arms threat - BBC News Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 "President Joe Biden’s administration is poised to unveil a sweeping decision on China tariffs that target key strategic sectors. The new tariffs will focus on industries including electric vehicles, batteries and solar cells, with existing levies largely being maintained."…" / X (twitter.com) UBS Sheds Over a Thousand Jobs (finews.asia) Copper Above $10,000 as Supply Worries Counter Faltering Demand - Bloomberg Gold, silver price on May 9: Precious metal prices stays weak in last session (msn.com) BP Keen to Buy Tesla Supercharging Sites for US Expansion - Bloomberg Guest post: Solar plus batteries ‘cheaper than new coal’ for meeting China’s rising demand - Carbon Brief Balancing the books: Ford prepares to limit UK sales of petrol cars to meet EV targets (parkers.co.uk) South Korea considering £59k incentive for each child born amid declining birth rate | The Independent

Riksbank leads the charge, makes first rate cut since 2016, expects two more in 2024 "The SNB does not have the right policy as a lender of last resort". Paul Tucker believes that the SNB needs to strengthen and expand its role as lender of last resort to avoid another Credit Suisse case. However, he fears that not all lessons have been learned. AstraZeneca withdrawing Covid vaccine worldwide. Company says decision is purely commercial as jab has been superseded by alternatives German IP down 0.4% in March, and Feb adjusted lower as usual, IP is about 12% lower than 6years ago now >>> DAX hits ATH's U.S stock buybacks hit highest level since 2018 Japan has described as "regrettable" U.S. President Joe Biden's comment that "xenophobia" is stifling the Asian nation's economic growth, the top government spokesperson said on Tuesday BOJ will scrutinise weak yen in guiding monetary policy, says Governor Ueda, talk talk is not enough, you need to hike rates to back up interventions - can't have it both ways Israel-Gaza war: Biden to halt some arms supplies if Israel invades Rafah Reports indicate the DOJ and SEC are investigating $TSLA's self-driving claims & driver assistance systems for potential wire and securities fraud China’s industry regulator Wednesday published draft rules for the lithium battery sector, an attempt to rein in freewheeling expansion and address overcapacity concerns Regulators are reportedly investigating Tesla’s self-driving claims, including whether it committed securities fraud or wire fraud during that criminal investigation Every EU country has seen its exports to Central Asia boom since Russia's invasion of Ukraine... China is reportedly considering abolishing the dividend tax for mainland investors who invest in Hong Kong stocks to avoid double taxation and improve liquidity in the HK market.#HONGKONG #Januarycontrariantrade now the market will start to pile in again, remember how 'they' all said China was uninvestable Source: Bloomberg #HSI BOJ will scrutinise weak yen in guiding monetary policy, says Governor Ueda | Reuters USD/JPY: Yen Weakness Poises Risk of a New Currency War in Asia - Bloomberg Bank of England expected to leave interest rates on hold today – business live (msn.com) Sweden's Riksbank makes first rate cut since 2016, expects two more in 2024 | Reuters Milei’s Argentina is fast becoming the Texas of Latin America (yahoo.com) The US Geological Survey estimates that the region holds the world’s second biggest reserves of shale gas, and fourth biggest reserves of shale oil jeroen blokland on X: "Bill Gross's latest blog - 'They Just Wanna Sell You a Bond Fund. - is epic! @real_billgross no longer believes in the 'total return' concept for #bonds, which have not provided any return over the last five years. Taking #inflation into account, they have declined by over 4%… https://t.co/lhQF54aGzW" / X (twitter.com) 'Bond King' Bill Gross says the 'total return' strategy he pioneered is dead — the logic behind his thinking (yahoo.com) This brokerage believes silver may outperform gold in long-term (cnbctv18.com) Israel-Gaza war: Biden to halt some arms supplies if Israel invades Rafah (bbc.com) Industrial production in Germany decreases 0.4 percent in March | MENAFN.COM Stock buybacks hit highest level since 2018 (yahoo.com) Japan tells US that Biden's 'xenophobia' comment is regrettable (msn.com) AstraZeneca withdrawing Covid vaccine, months after admitting rare side effect (telegraph.co.uk) Why Tesla Investigators Could Be Eyeing Securities and Wire Fraud | Inc.com China Moves to Rein in Battery Boom Amid Overcapacity Concerns - Caixin Global It's coming everywhere Next government will be forced to raise taxes for public services, experts warn (msn.com) If UBS is in crisis, 'SNB doesn't have the right policy' | Agefi.com 'Trader justice': Ex-SocGen trader fired for risky bets claims he was made a 'scapegoat' (msn.com) always someone else's fault - innit ! UBS Sheds Over a Thousand Jobs (finews.asia)

Fed :  Kashkari remained hawkish in his latest essay. He was agnostic about long-term r-star but saw upside risks to short-term r-star, which is relevant for the terminal rate of the next rate cutting cycle. He appears to be open-minded to potential rate hikes if the Fed is misperceiving the neutral policy rate. Druckenmiller to Powell : “Don’t go on 60 Minutes, you’re not a rock star; you’re the FED chair” >>> Vol 'crush' after main events FOMC/earnings/QRA etc, sharpish back to lows (MOVE index and VIX), pushing risk higher again pretty easily The New Cold War - The West must stand up to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, or it will be doomed. Historian Niall Ferguson on how to win the epic confrontation with the “Axis of Ill Will (Weltwoche article) China  slowed its official state of Gold adding “officially” just 2 tonnes of it in April, this is the lowest monthly increase since they began monthly purchases began a couple years ago, the rapid price increase cooling the golden whale's buying JPM : The US consumer’s net worth “has increased ~$37T, or +33.6%, since the beginning of 2020, including $5T in realized capital gains from 2020 – 2022 SNCF : The CEO just got fired because of that deal with unions Putin inaugurated as president for fifth term with Russia under tight grip Oil falls as course of Gaza war remains uncertain, while cease-fire talks hang in the balance M&A will not help with looming copper shortage, warns Barrick chief Amid BHP approach for Anglo, prolific dealmaker says consolidation does not guarantee more production Apple's AI strategy includes making its own chips Fed may need to hold rates steady all year, Kashkari says (msn.com) Bank of Japan issues stronger warning over yen's impact on policy | Reuters talk talk, interventions not backed by hikes don't work, for long, but they hurt short-term markets Stanley Druckenmiller gives Biden's economic policies an 'F', blames the Fed for reigniting inflation (cnbc.com) >>> Squawk Box on X: "Investor Stanley Druckenmiller on Bidenomics: "If I were a professor, I'd give them an 'F'." https://t.co/WfsU4ecO6y" / X (twitter.com) WELL worth a listen - just 3mins The New Cold War (weltwoche.ch) The New Cold War The West must stand up to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, or it will be doomed. Historian Niall Ferguson on how to win the epic confrontation with the “Axis of Ill Will.” >>> well worth a read China’s overcapacity dilemma solvable with ‘painful’ industrial revamp, scholars say | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Apple is making its own custom AI chips (qz.com) Crude oil prices today: WTI, Brent down as Gaza cease-fire uncertain (cnbc.com) M&A will not help with looming copper shortage, warns Barrick chief (ft.com) UBS sails past earnings estimates as it aims to draw a line under Credit Suisse deal (msn.com) Such a big world out there ! Carl Quintanilla on X: "JPMORGAN: The US consumer’s net worth “has increased ~$37T, or +33.6%, since the beginning of 2020, including $5T in realized capital gains from 2020 – 2022. Those capital gains, even if taxed at 37%, means that [Fed models] are undercounting Consumer cash levels by at least $3T.… https://t.co/57IDjtigOm" / X (twitter.com) Warren Buffett pays tribute to Charlie Munger on a 'tough day' for shareholders (yahoo.com) Arnaud Bertrand on X: "This is absolutely priceless. And probably the most frightening clip you'll ever watch on the people in charge of the US economy. Jared Bernstein is literally the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, the main agency advising Biden on economic policy https://t.co/1b31FPFPCQ" / X (twitter.com) I mean surely not... Gold market: China and the rest of the world are stocking up on gold (smh.com.au) Harnessing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Critical Mineral Wealth (imf.org) How wild boars are threatening Italy’s prosciutto ham industry (yahoo.com) How wild boars are threatening Italy’s prosciutto ham industry >>> you don't read headlines like this every day! SNCF CEO Jean-Pierre Farandou to be replaced after the Olympics, government says (lefigaro.fr) Brazil: Images show devastating impact of Rio Grande do Sul floods (bbc.com) Russia Rues Loss of Two Combat Planes in Just 72 Hours (newsweek.com) Putin inaugurated as president for fifth term with Russia under tight grip (msn.com) USDCHF - must hold around here 0.90+ to continue to push higher

Natural gas producers are bullish on demand as they see significant upside from the immense energy needs of artificial intelligence and data centers. Electricity demand is forecast to grow 20% by 2030, according to Wells Fargo ETH study : Energy transition is massively underestimated Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense? Europe’s rescue fund has nothing left to rescue. It could now become governments’ silver bullet for military investment instead Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Washington’s crackdown shows its leverage over global banking system Economist : Britain excels at getting foreigners up to speed economically, socially and culturally. It is (in this respect, at least) a model for the rest of the world Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser says low-income consumers are being 'cautious' about their spending habits Fed President Barkin was optimistic about the future path of inflation and the economy, as he believed the current stance of monetary policy is restrictive enough to slow the economy and bring inflation down to 2% FED San Francisco :  Pandemic Savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. Consumers? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held the cash rate at 4.35 per cent despite March quarter consumer price index (CPI) figures showing an uptick in inflation Israel-Hamas war: IDF presence reported at Rafah crossing Pandemic Savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. Consumers? - San Francisco Fed (frbsf.org) Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser says low-income consumers are being 'cautious' about their spending habits (msn.com) Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine Israel-Hamas war: IDF presence reported at Rafah crossing (msn.com) China's Xi and Macron urge 'political settlement' of Iran nuclear issue, state media reports (msn.com) and yet.... China hacked Ministry of Defence, Sky News learns | Politics News | Sky News Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 "China denied generating overcapacity and accuses the EU of protectionism. Xi Jinping reiterated that position in talks with Macron, saying there is no capacity issue viewed from the perspective of comparative advantage or global market demand." https://t.co/lRnnT3sxCa" / X (twitter.com) Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA RBA holds cash rate at 4.35 per cent despite higher than expected inflation numbers (domain.com.au) Has the EU really just found €400B it could spend on defense? – POLITICO #XPT still works today price hasn't really moved for 2years PLATINUM Documentary: Mining, Science and History (youtube.com) UBS Returns to Net Profit in a Big Way (finews.com) Energiewende unterschätzt: Schweiz braucht 8 neue Kraftwerke | Tages-Anzeiger (tagesanzeiger.ch) AI could drive a natural gas boom as power companies face surging electricity demand – NBC Boston US regulator shuts down Trump Media auditor over ‘massive fraud’ – The Irish Times The agency said it was stepping in to permanently close what it called a “massive fraud” and “sham audit mill”, and it told Borgers’ clients they would need to check past financial statements in case they contained errors. The firm’s “deliberate and systemic failure” to meet professional standards affected more than 1,500 company filings, the SEC said. Trump Media fires audit firm BF Borgers after SEC bars it for 'fraud' (qz.com) Warren Buffett on his friendship with Charlie Munger: We never had any doubts about the other person (youtube.com) Warren Buffett on his friendship with Charlie Munger: We never had any doubts about the other person Britain is the best place in Europe to be an immigrant (economist.com) Cambridge students set up encampment calling for Israel divestment | Varsity #XPT #platinum

Berkshire's cash pile hit another record at $189bn, sells 13% of AAPL in Q1 2024 U.S NFP slightly below expectations, only the 4rth downside surprise since March 2022 >>> 2y rates off about 20-25bps from peak 2weeks ago, down to 4.8%, Janet has a lot of UST paper to sell this week, $125bn combined, with $25bn of 20y FOMC : “I don’t see the stag or flation actually,” Chair Powell riffed somewhat uncharacteristically off-the-cuff during the post-FOMC meeting press conference when asked about the risk of stagflation facing the US economy, message pretty clear, next move is not a hike, has confidence inflation moving towards 2%, slight delay but path clear towards year-end. Importantly, the FOMC’s decision was unanimous and the FOMC statement maintained an overall easing bias. FT-Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn Assessments suggest Kremlin agents preparing covert bombings, arson and attacks on infrastructure Copper : At $10K per ton, Chinese fabricators literally go into buying strike as they cannot pass these higher feedstock prices on to consumers The UST yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days >>> has only happened 3x since 1920: in 2008, 1929 and 1974. All 3 times saw some large risk correction overall, one market perception that could change is if we head into some sort of recession or hard landing, towards the end of 2024 “I don’t think anyone at this table has any idea of how to use it [$189B in cash] effectively, and therefore we don’t use it. We only swing at pitches we like… today things aren’t attractive. We’re not using it at 5.4%, but I wouldn’t use it at 1% either. But don’t tell the Federal Reserve that. I don’t mind at all, given current conditions, building our cash position. When I look at the equity markets and the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find cash quite attractive.” Warren Buffett Gaza latest: Israeli military urges Palestinians to evacuate parts of Rafah | World News | Sky News Saudi Arabia posts budget deficit of $3.30 billion in Q1 2024, ministry says (xm.com) Macron sets Ukraine as top priority as China's Xi Jinping pays a state visit to France (msn.com) Bonds: 10-year Treasury yield falls after April jobs data (cnbc.com) USD/JPY Weekly Forecast: BoJ Eyes Services PMI, Wages, and Household Spending | FXEmpire Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn (ft.com) Copper at Risk of Pullback as Buying in China Stalls After Rally - Bloomberg Panama Elects Jose Raul Mulino as President Pledging to Shut Migrant Trail - Bloomberg Semper Vigilantes on X: "Thoughts on #Gold (and silver) from the GOAT: A 🧵 Keep Reading 👇 1/3 https://t.co/sxsgETgdBC" / X (twitter.com) China’s EV makers, unfazed by US, European export curbs, will push overseas vehicle shipments to new heights, analysts say | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Michael Pettis on X: "George Magnus: "If fiscal support is limited and monetary easing prevails, a weaker renminbi will aggravate China’s deeply embedded financial imbalances and its endemic proclivity to overproduction and exports." https://t.co/oJ1sqKZ6Tc via @ft" / X (twitter.com) China's gold-buying spree could be the straw that breaks the dollar's back (telegraph.co.uk) Warren Buffett on AI and Berkshire Hathaway selling Apple stock (qz.com) Technical analysis Apple could be reversing the trend | Saxo Group (home.saxo) The Oracle of Omaha warns about AI: What Buffett said at Berkshire (yahoo.com) Commercial jet maker Airbus is staying humble even as Boeing flounders. There's a reason for that | AP News No 10 'shelves plan for summer general election' (telegraph.co.uk) USDJPY - they could push it down towards 145 - but they will need to signal hikes inJapan and/or hope for U.S inflation to come in lower

Big earnings out of the way, markets loved the #AAPL share buyback announcement ($110bn), overall SPX500 approaching 5100/5200 more of an area to lighten up overall, USDollar broadly softer, particularly USDJPY, as BoJ got involved again yesterday (IF they mean business they have to push it below 150JPY and hike rates or say they will..., gold miners (#GLD #SILJ etc) , #CSI China, commodity related stocks all working still. FOMC didn't bring much new, wait & see, the market was expecting a pretty hawkish one, so 'priced-in', #highfrolonger not #higherforlonger #AAPL earnings ok, shares jumped as they announced $110bn sharebuyback Glencore studying an approach for Anglo American, sources say Maryland plans to rebuild collapsed Baltimore bridge in just over four years FT-Who’ll buy all the Treasuries? You’ll buy all the Treasuries 2024_04_29_Commodities_Zurich.pdf Saxo commodity outlook Please let me know, if you can't open this Market Hunts for Signs of Japan Yen Intervention in Fed Accounts (yahoo.com) Japan faces a tough tug-of-war with yen bears | Reuters Who’ll buy all the Treasuries? You’ll buy all the Treasuries (ft.com) Apple revenue falls but not as much as expected (siliconrepublic.com) Glencore studying an approach for Anglo American, sources say (miningweekly.com) BP, Big Oil Return to the Gulf Of Mexico. Remember Deepwater Horizon Spill? - Bloomberg Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Net coupon issuance is increasing, putting duration under pressure despite QT tapering. 📈Hence, we might still see 10y yields hitting 5%. US Treasury net coupon issuance in Q2 tops $500bn for 1st time in 2 years, stabilizing at $300bn+ from Q3, nearly triple pre-Covid levels https://t.co/M0RxB4y0bf" / X (twitter.com) How battery cell formats will change the face of the EV industry – The Armchair Trader Very good article Italy’s press freedom ranking drops amid fears of government 'censorship' (thelocal.it) Maryland plans to rebuild collapsed Baltimore bridge in just over four years | The Hill USDCHF - slightly higher Swiss inflation this week took momentum away ahead of big medium-term levels around 0.9250 area

Powell : ''NO stag, NO flation'', why make such statement?.. is it like "subprime is contained" and "inflation is transitory".. >>> slightly 'dovish' but only relative to expectations, things ticking along, wait & see, bringing inflation down taking longer than expected (sticky etc), watching data, "unlikely that the next policy move will be a rate hike" US job openings fall to three-year low in March, ISM was a little softer (note..43rd straight month of shortages in electrical components per the ISM), ADP was 192K (expected 180K for NFP Friday) Global Central Banks purchased an ALL-TIME HIGH 289.72 tonnes of Gold during the first quarter, while ETF's had a net outflow, they all at it, data from MAS shows that its #gold reserves rose by over 4 tonnes in March - the second consecutive month of buying (Q1 buying 7 tonnes and total reserves over 235tonnes now) BTC posted largest monthly decline since June 2022, down about 12% in April - other cryptos doing worse - classic peak on the 'halving' story GS: Our US Utilities team expects US power generation to grow 94 GW between now and 2030, 29 GW of that driven by data center demand... Autonomous taxis may have the most impact on GDP of any innovation In history US Henry Hub natgas prices fall to 29-year low in April Half of all copper mining is at drought risk with climate change US and Saudi Arabia near a security pact AstraZeneca has admitted in court for the first time that its Covid jab can cause a deadly blood clotting side effect ‘Basel III’ bank rules could pose unexpected threat to Biden’s green energy plans BoC Gov Macklem expects core inflation to continue to ease gradually-dovish Chocolate lovers rejoice. Two days after suffering its largest loss in 65 years, Cocoa posted its biggest daily decline since 1984 and is now on track for its worst weekly performance in history! Chinese tech stocks are up 30% in 3 months #contrariantradeJanuary SNB cut too early >>> Swiss inflation higher than expected, 1.4% vs 1.1 exp Analysis-Powell's soothing tone may not be enough for inflation-spooked markets (msn.com) Fed rate decision May 2024: Fed holds rate steady (cnbc.com) US and Saudi Arabia near a security pact: • US will military commit to Riyadh’s security and provide access to previously off limit weapons • Saudis will limit Chinese tech in the kingdom, build a US-led civilian nuclear program • Saudis will recognise Israel if Netanyahu stops the war, and commits a pathway to Palestinian statehood Trading USDJPY via FX option spreads | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Yen surges on suspected intervention, 160 seen as key level | Reuters Nick Timiraos on X: "The Fed marked to market its policy statement to acknowledge recent inflation setbacks, but didn't change the guidance section In June, the Treasury redemption cap will fall to $25 billion from $60 billion https://t.co/rixlOtNVD0" / X (twitter.com) Janet Yellen Is Worried About Treasurys. You Should Be Too. | InvestorPlace The Department of Treasury just announced that it is launching a buyback program from May through July. On the surface, this looks like we are restarting quantitative easing. I think this is precisely because of Japan-related risks that I’ve been highlighting since August. After a miserable, failed intervention by the Bank of Japan to stabilize the yen, the next step might be the Bank of Japan selling some of its Treasury holdings. US job openings fall to three-year low in March: JOLTS report (yahoo.com) Volatile data, but still...one wonders what's going on here, wait...Construction jobs collapsed, might not be too surprising where lending rates are....30y at 7.15% definitely put the breaks on a few projects... US Henry Hub natgas prices fall to 29-year low in April | BOE Report Half of all copper mining is at drought risk with climate change - MINING.COM Is Copper Heading to $15,000? | OilPrice.com Boeing Whistleblowers Keep Suddenly Dying (newsweek.com) 'Basel III' bank rules could pose unexpected threat to Biden's green energy plans (cnbc.com) AstraZeneca admits Covid-19 vaccine may cause blood clots in “very rare” cases - Pharmaceutical Technology (pharmaceutical-technology.com) Why hundreds of U.S. banks may be at risk of failure (cnbc.com) There are over 4'000 banks in the U.S. ... Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "GS: Our US Utilities team expects US power generation to grow 94 GW between now and 2030, 29 GW of that driven by data center demand... https://t.co/HFIMP6CP8s" / X (twitter.com) Autonomous Taxis Impact GDP More Than Any Other Innovation (ark-invest.com) Right OK Cathie..... Western society is being poisoned by the virus of 'victimhood' and entitlement (telegraph.co.uk) Where do we go from here thought is the big Q Barrick Gold beats estimates for first-quarter profit (msn.com) >>> profit rising 150% from Q1 2023, EPS 7 to 17cents, as price of gold remains high(er) vs price of production, these names will keep coming with beats, and analysts will keep revising higher Trump’s confused approach to foreign exchange is back - OMFIF Many saying #China is #uninvestable right now - fair enough - won't argue - but when do ou want to buy any China exposure now or wait till it rallies 20-30pct and they all change their mind ? #MSCI #China

Yellen : The US needs to take "significant steps" to reduce budget deficit >> sounds good, how ? with -2- presidential candidates promising spending galore across board.. Markets were closed in China, HKG and Singapore today and many will be closed throughout Europe due to holidays, lively calendar though and FOMC later on, with a risk of a hawkish tilt US employment cost Index for Q1 came in at 1.2% vs1.0% exp, 4.4% YoY >> The ECI rose on a sequential basis. Private sector comp growth was +1.1% in Q1 vs +0.9% in Q4, running hot, even if uneven between industries >>> somewhere in most bank research groups, 'Fed rate cut forecasts' are being revised again.. Saudi Aramco CEO says 80% of oil demand to come from Global South by 2050 China State Shipbuilding Corp. Ltd. (CSSC) has signed a nearly $6 billion deal with QatarEnergy to build 18 ultra-large liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers BoJ intervention early Monday are estimated to have been about $35bn, perhaps slightly above most expectations >>> markets testing BoJ again... FT - China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity. Policymakers on either side of bitter trade dispute seem to confuse two issues Huawei's quarterly profit surges as it takes China phone market share from Apple The regular market for US equities runs for 390 minutes on a standard trading day. But at the rate things are going, eventually the last 10 might be the only ones that matter Tesla's deal with Baidu isn't new, the mapping data Tesla will collect likely can't leave China, and Full Self Driving can't compete with the more advanced Chinese alternatives. Everyone Wants to Seize Russia’s Money. It’s a Terrible Idea/NYT Tesla conducting more layoffs, including entire Supercharger team Fed Preview: Powell Could Fire Hawkish Warning Shot Gold, S&P 500 Setups | MENAFN.COM Laspeyres on X: ""This is your captain speaking: just to let you know, I am quite concered about how this plane is being flown". *YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT 'WHERE WE'RE GOING' WITH US DEFICIT" / X (twitter.com) Yellen Criticizes Summers on Inflation: ‘He’s Been Wrong in the Past’ (msn.com) Treasury Secretary Yellen: Shelter inflation likely to fall in the next year (fxstreet.com) Craig Shapiro on X: "As we head into part 2 of the Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement tomorrow, I thought it may be interesting to look at the level of volatility that existed in the UST market heading into the event over the last 2 years. Below is a table of what the MOVE Index looked like https://t.co/PxCLZNnR6g" / X (twitter.com) Is it too late to invest in the gold rush? (ft.com) Never too late - it's hardly moved ! and even more potential here #GDX Many will/can use various reasons for buying #GOLD, all has been heard from fiat curencies debasement, US/Global debt that has gone through the rood last 15years (doubled globally), USD 'weaponization' eventually on some sort of UST failed auction (is a risk - whenever that maybe), West freezing Russian assets might have been a trigger for CB and others to buy physical Gold, eventual BRICS+ as an alternative to USD/SWIFT, inflation, FED eventually cutting >>> take your pick, IMHO, CB buying is/has been huge and won't go away, once there are signs of USD rates coming down, 'retail' world will join in and buy Gold, Silver and/or XPT Stocks Trade for 390 Minutes a Day. Increasingly, Only 10 Matter (yahoo.com) Huawei's quarterly profit surges as it takes China phone market share from Apple (yahoo.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 Good FT article on China's intractably unbalanced economy: "China’s seeming reluctance to rebalance its economy is one of the great challenges facing global financial systems, threatening to worsen Beijing’s trade and diplomatic relations." https://t.co/LDqUHmUjZb via @ft" / X (twitter.com) Saudi Aramco CEO says 80% of oil demand to come from Global South by 2050 | S&P Global Commodity Insights (spglobal.com) China’s problem is excess savings, not too much capacity (ft.com) Chinese Shipbuilding Giant Seals $6 Billion Deal to Build LNG Carriers for Qatar - Caixin Global Money latest: Turns out Sainsbury's boss was right about self-checkouts - Britons do love them | UK News | Sky News work to do ! Elon Musk Can’t Solve Tesla’s China Crisis With His Desperate Asia Visit | WIRED Tesla conducting more layoffs, including entire Supercharger team | Electrek Opinion | Everyone Wants to Seize Russia’s Assets. The REPO Act Is a Terrible Idea. - The New York Times (nytimes.com) NASDAQ here - similar picture in major indices though USDCHF - trending higher still - big test 0.9250 area coming - monthly break and PAR will become the target