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Writer's pictureStéphan
May 143 min read

Lots going on there, Biden tariffs to China : mostly symbolic ? why now / 10y JGB 95bp / BoE's Pill dovish #GBP / #Copper 2y high / #shipping rates up



  • U.S PPI today, U.S CPI and retail sales tomorrow + Fed speakers and more

  • A lack of available space on container ships, mainly due to the big detour taken by shipping companies round the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the unstable situation in the Red Sea, is causing delays for many Chinese exporters. And as a result, shipping rates from Asia are spiralling #Maersk #HLAG #Costco

  • JPN 10y JGB yield shitting 95bp, 30y 3.05%, lifting all long-ends, so net net JPY weaker still, piecemeal deal not working..

  • Bloomberg: "Biden’s plan to hit China with more tariffs is mostly symbolic"/THREAD

  • China begins selling long-term bonds to stimulate economy, first tranche out this Friday, should continue to support #SHCOMP #HSI China creates its largest ever quantum computing chip

  • Yellen to Xi : You buy my UST's and I'll put in a good word to Biden about those tariffs..China then telling Asians to stop buying NVDA chips and buy theirs (different quality mind..), definitely a few things going on behind the scenes.. Negara doesn't want to use rates to prop up currency..

  • Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he finds the lack of inflation progress last quarter concerning and favors keeping rates steady until there are further signs that the metric will return to the central bank’s 2% target

  • To put things into perspective. All US stocks are now worth 187% of US GDP, and the rest of the world's equities are worth only 61% of World GDP ex-US. Is this difference in valuation justified? (Charts via Goldman)

  • 0DTE options now account for ~50% of options volume in the entire S&P 500. >>> ie, short-term-daily 'views & positioning' can change Very quickly

  • U.S new home median sales price falls to lowest since June 2021 (400K)

  • UK Payrolls -85,000, unemployment up to 4.3% >>> rate cut exp to shift again?, just by the book, Pill out already "Not unreasonable to believe that over summer we will see enough confidence to consider rate cuts."

 

JPMORGAN: “.. earnings season is just about done .. growth came in better than consensus expected, at +5% y/y ..” But “excluding Mag-7, S&P 500 EPS growth is -2% y/y, the 5th consecutive quarter of negative growth .. Meanwhile, the percent of companies guiding higher rose vs last quarter, and those guiding lower dropped dramatically. We dont take comfort on the improved guidance, as the optimism on earnings has gotten ahead of the economic momentum.” [Kolanovic]



You buy my UST's and I'll put in a good word to Biden about those tariffs..


Yellen been passing the message in Asia...Japan would appear to be 'letting' rates, JGB yields move higher (it needs a good move to help JPY) but in : Malaysia won't use monetary policy as tool to prop up ringgit (cnbc.com)





Yellen pretty much told MOF to hand over USDJPY interventions to BoJ, and concentrate on slowly rising rates... no surprise BoJ cut bon buying, rates reacting #JGB 30y yields above 2%, JPY doing little, it's one or the other! It's the currency or the bonds, got to make a choice, can't have it both ways, China same/similar



Protesters attempt to storm Tesla’s factory in Germany | CNN Business ''As many as 800 activists gathered outside Tesla’s factory near Berlin Friday to protest its expansion plans, and some of them clashed with police as they attempted to break into the plant''








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