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Markets : Trump turbo charging asset prices, asking/pushing for cheaper energy, finance to boost unregulated AI, crypto, stocks (and bonds stable.. if NO tariffs), which is pushing USD lower (#positioning), AUDUSD chart here, many of them $ charts are similar if not the same!...giving back long USD positioning since Nov on the back of big tariffs threats... which are unlikely to happen, still our best case scenario..go with the #TechBros still, and flows (europe comeback, no tariffs, too many doom and gloom (Davos))>>> big outside call for 2025 remains #HSI #China UP, on low tariffs.... >> and higher global growth, better distribution, #SPX493 President Trump : signed an executive order banning the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (#CBDC), which never really had a green light in the U.S , could well support #BTC and other coins. He would seek to bring interest rates lower (it's allowed, but), Trump says he could reach trade deal with China (#HSI) calls talk with Xi 'friendly', he calls on OPEC to bring crude prices down (Russia related). He is the becoming the technoking of America, #TechBros in charge if there was any doubt after last few days, and bringing Constitutional amendment to allow Trump third term introduced in the House... quelle surprise ! Trump "I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately," he said, in a signal that he might pressure US Federal Reserve officials on the matter. "Likewise, they should be dropping all over the world. Interest rates should follow us all over." >>> it's allowed to ask for lower rates, it's whether the FED is politically influenced or not.. Forbes / Trump makes his Tech Policies clear from Day One >>> more like a confirmation of what's been said for 2months Trump : DEI out, in comes MEI now Japan’s key inflation gauge hit 3% for the first time in 16 months, then BoJ delivered the 25bps hike, to 0.50% .... bringing rates to highest since...2008 >>> BOJ governor Ueda: There is still a long way to go in reaching neutral rate Ed Davey, "Many across Europe share my concern about how we deal with Trump.. The UK has a weak hand.. Insiders in the Trump administration are saying they have us over a barrel because we have a weak relationship with the EU... We need to strengthen our negotiating hand.. A UK-EU customs union helps us deal with the problem of growth, and it strengthens our negotiating hand with Trump" - quite right >> and deregs fast! get you own tech firing, or you stay in the dark ages, no good clearly...fairly clear!! U.S. must stop judicial "extortion" of corporate Europe, French lawmakers say Stargate, the high-profile AI project unveiled by Donald Trump, will exclusively serve OpenAI, people familiar with the matter told the FT >> Musk won't be happy UK politics: ‘It’s not a customs union’: No 10 leaves door open to joining pan-Europe scheme – as it happened #GBP At UN, Panama reminds Trump he should not be threatening force U.S Home buying conditions have collapsed to levels NEVER seen in 65 years Trump says he could reach trade deal with China, calls talk with Xi 'friendly' | Reuters Trump Makes His Tech Policies Clear From Day One Trump third White House term eyed by House resolution MAGA: We must elect Donald Trump to protect free speech, which is essential to us as Americans >>> Donald Trump yesterday: I want to shut down MSNBC—they criticize me too much. It’s absurd that, in America, people are allowed to have free speech At UN, Panama reminds Trump he should not be threatening force German business activity stabilises in January, PMI shows Shay Boloor on X: "The $500B AI Infrastructure 'Stargate' initiative is just the start of what I expect will be a series of major investments under Trump's presidency -- here are some of the key beneficiaries of projects like this 🧐 • $NVDA -- The Brain Driving AI Acceleration • $TSLA -- The https://t.co/jM6bWMNIoh " / X FX Daily: BoJ hike and China tariff threat unwinding | articles | ING Think Japan hikes rates to highest since 2008 as sustained inflation, rising wages Singapore central bank eases monetary policy, first time since March 2020 jeroen blokland on X: "Oh boy! Trump is going all in against ‘Central Bank Digital Currencies.’ ‘taking measures to protect Americans from the risks of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which threaten the stability of the financial system, individual privacy, and the sovereignty of the United https://t.co/PARbB4kl1f " / X UK politics: ‘It’s not a customs union’: No 10 leaves door open to joining pan-Europe scheme – as it happened | Politics | The Guardian Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman becomes a Trump loyalty test US to leave World Health Organization on Jan. 22, 2026, says UN | Reuters Rachel Reeves to soften non-dom tax changes to woo rich for growth push | Rachel Reeves | The Guardian >>> backtracking, a little late ! Farrukh on X: "Left: Donald Trump, "The EU treats us badly.. They don't take our farm products.. They may it difficult to bring products into Europe.. If you don't make your products in America, you will have to pay a tariff.. The EU took Apple, Google, to court, are going after Facebook, https://t.co/MrpQBXcbnI " / X U.S. must stop judicial "extortion" of corporate Europe, French lawmakers say | Reuters Saudi Arabia is developing nuclear program for energy purposes: Al-Jubeir Bär-Neo-Boss Bollinger: „Cut the Durcheinander“ – Inside Paradeplatz

Trump is coming to Davos, virtually, speaks at 4pm LDN time , BoJ meeting next up tomorrow, about 20bps hike been priced for a while Trump delivers fresh tariff threats against EU, China and Russia. Trump tells Putin to reach Ukraine deal 'soon' or U.S will increase sanctions >>> Trump put Putin in a tough spot with his 'ultimatum', pretty sure this is not the way Putin expected things to go President Donald Trump to consider abolishing the Federal Income Tax, another idea! this would almost certainly mean bigger tariffs to pay for it, what if tax is down to 10%, so many variables, Trump is ''throwing a kite'' on quite a few things.. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says, "if tariffs come, they come. Get over it!" Musk Pours Cold Water on Trump-Backed Stargate AI Project, Microsoft CEO was just asked about Musk, saying Project Stargate doesn't have the money to invest “All I know is, I’m good for my $80 Billion” >>> SoftBank has $38b in cash, $142b in debt and generates $3ish billion in FCF per BBG, maybe Musk has a point ! GS : BOE could cut interest rates 6 times by the middle of next year in response to sluggish economic growth; f/c rates falling to 3.25% by Q2 ’26, believes that markets are pricing in too few reductions Quantum computing could go big this year. Here's a glossary to get you started. Google said its latest quantum chip, Willow, achieved an almost three-decade-long challenge China prods insurers to invest billions in latest move to support markets This is a crazy stat: "Only 29% of S&P 500 companies have outperformed the index over the past two years, one of the lowest levels since 1990." - BofA European NatGAs prices for 2025 summer delivery have risen to an unprecedented premium of EUR 4.6/MWh over next winter/Saxo Bitcoin can hit $700K says Larry Fink/ clip of interview below Keir Starmer tells BBG : ''he is “putting builders first, not the blockers” as he announces curbs on judicial reviews delaying major infrastructure projects'' >>> EU 'could consider' UK joining pan-Europe customs scheme, '' open to ambitious reset with UK on food/farm exports and pan European customs rule of origin area'' Musk Pours Cold Water on Trump-Backed Stargate AI Project Trump heads back to Davos, this time virtually, for elite World Economic Forum gathering Trump delivers fresh tariff threats against EU and China | Reuters How Trump's proposed tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada (and now Russia?) could affect you Kyiv Open to Peace Negotiations With Putin, Official Signals - Newsweek NATO chief 'very happy' with Trump's sanctions threat on Russia Beijing tells insurers to buy more Chinese stocks EU trade chief: Bloc may consider UK joining pan-Europe customs scheme - BBC News Barchart on X: "Bitcoin $BTC can hit $700,000 says Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock https://t.co/xtzxCPy32V " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "European #natgas prices for 2025 summer delivery have risen to an unprecedented premium of EUR 4.6/MWh over next winter, due to supply tightness and discussions of subsidies to traders for refilling storage sites in Germany. Paying “high” prices during the refilling summer https://t.co/IYnLRjAUzk " / X German finance minister Jörg Kukies: Structural weaknesses in economy must be addressed South Korea GDP misses estimates as weak consumption, construction sector drive growth to 6-quarter low A glossary of quantum computing terms you need to know Six interest rate cuts by middle of next year, says Goldman Sachs >> seems like a lot! some 75bps away from market pricing! Get on with it all ¨! Alex Wickham on X: "NEW: Keir Starmer tells @BloombergUK he is “putting builders first, not the blockers” as he announces curbs on judicial reviews delaying major infrastructure projects PM says he’s “disarming the NIMBYs who are hell-bent on slowing down our progress as a nation,” clamping down" / X Daniel Priestley on X: "UK energy is 4x more expensive than US energy. That's before Trump starts drilling for more. All of this is purely academic. No AI companies are coming to the UK to pay 400% energy bills AND have their staff pay 45% tax and pay 15% NI. Here's what IS going to happen - the" / X Bereaved Gazans dig out bodies from city ruins, give them graves | Reuters Hamas' tight grip on Gaza complicates plan for lasting peace | Reuters AI as Investor: Active, Passive or Just Random? Switzerland expands free trade network despite doubts - SWI swissinfo.ch Convicted US Capitol rioter Pam Hemphill turns down Trump pardon - BBC News

Trump on China : 'we’re talking about a tariff of 10% on China, based on the fact that they’re sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada, probably February 1st is the date', Trump Pushes for Early Renegotiation of U.S. Trade Deal With Mexico, Canada ECB’s Stournaras: US Tariffs would speed up Interest Rate cuts in the Eurozone (..and thus weaken EURO overall) OUTSIDE call : worth putting a slightly higher probability to and increased cooperation between Xi and Trump , a better relation between China and US, improved trade policies and reduced tariff risks as we go along, they both need better global growth #GDX awakening slowly but surely.. Markets giddy up pretty much across board, ATH's in quite a few indexes and sectors, Chinese markets off a little overnight on 10% tariffs threat (which is a lot less than the once 50% or more that was bandied about) >>>but generally speaking same picture, stocks up and rates quiet, industrial metals up a bit, GOLD & BTC near or at ATH's too >>> all the market needs for 2025 is a stable to softer USD, and global growth migth well take off ! which is what 'they' all need ..see Norway PF comment below too.. Big Techs, Ai up again : Netflix up on strong earnings and SoftBank Group Corp., OpenAI, and Oracle Corp. are forming a $100 billion joint venture to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure China's DeepSeek claims its reasoning model beats OpenAI’s o1 on certain benchmarks, it's almost as if someone had comne up with a mobile equal to the iPhone but was selling it for $50 instead of $1000 >>> it could be quite dramatic, some folks saying Trump halts $300bn of green infrastructure, also instructed all federal diversity, equity and inclusion staff to be put on paid leave and eventually be laid off. The UK has been ranked as the second most attractive country to invest in by global CEOs, behind only the US, as British CEOs feel confident about growth in the country’s economy... >>> been saying it for a while, read it again... Trudeau says 'everything is on the table' to respond to Trump tariffs, "The impact on the US auto industry will be so bad, " RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan says on President Trump's proposed Canada and Mexico tariffs. "We don't think they get implemented..." China has silently put 'Industrial Sanctions' on India: Will New Delhi respond? Russia warns Trump against seizing Panama Canal DeepSeek claims its reasoning model beats OpenAI’s o1 on certain benchmarks UK ranked second-best investment target by global CEOs Oxfordshire atom-smasher to produce fuel for fusion reactors Donald Trump is about to relaunch his trade war with China—and create even more corporate upheaval in the process Trump stirs tariff pot with fresh threats on EU, Feb 1 China deadline Trump Pushes for Early Renegotiation of U.S. Trade Deal With Mexico, Canada NEXTA on X: "❗️ Trump will provide new sanctions against Russia Trump calls new sanctions against Russian Federation 'likely' if its leadership doesn't negotiate. The U.S. is studying the issue of continued arms deliveries to Ukraine. Further support for Ukraine will depend on dialogues https://t.co/UT9t9rkAV1 " / X Russia warns Donald Trump against taking control of Panama Canal Norway $1.8 Trillion Fund CEO Sees Contrarian Bet in US Tech - Bloomberg Investors willing to go against the market in the coming months should consider selling US technology stocks and private credit, while boosting holdings in China, according to the head of Norway’s $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund China Has Stealthily Put Industrial Sanctions on India: Will New Delhi Respond? ''' India has been playing the sanctions game from the middle. It buys sanctioned Russian oil and exports distillates to EU. It buys sanctioned Chinese solar components and exports solar panels to US. China is stopping the game''' It's when nothing can go wrong.. that it is worth planning On Bubble Watch - The Memo by Howard Marks | Podcast on Spotify SoftBank Joins OpenAI, Oracle in AI Pact Unveiled by Trump Trudeau says 'everything is on the table' to respond to Trump tariffs Yahoo Finance on X: ""The impact on the US auto industry will be so bad," RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan says on President Trump's proposed Canada and Mexico tariffs. "We don't think they get implemented..." https://t.co/d1O8IutnW5 " / X Netflix Stock Jumps 14% on Record Subscriber Gains in Q4 Rachel Reeves ducks question over whether she backs Heathrow third runway but stresses economic growth key

Trump is promising to defeat inflation by rapidly bringing down costs, drill baby drill etc, however inflation is not caused by oil prices, they have actually been relatively low and stable last few years, inflation is on services side and caused by deficit spending and QE, hard to see Trump delivering much different?, but we shall see! AND Big Bro's CEO's causing up to Trump it not necessarily a good sign, IF Trump starts to pick winners and losers, while micromanaging economy from WH, these are trying to make sure that central government is all in their favour.. >>> time will tell WEF going, la crème de la crème of prominent folks turning up to guide us all. ..one wonders how many private jets have landed last 48hour sin ZH.. Trump issued nearly 100 executive orders last night - headlines and more below Bezos, Zuck, Pichai & Musk, -4- of the world’s five richest men were placed more prominently than members of his own cabinet , with some of their spouses occupying seats at the expense of governors and members of congress Watch CNBC’s full interview Stanley Druckenmiller >>> Stanley Druckenmiller says 'animal spirits' are back in markets because of Trump with CEOs 'giddy' Goldman Sachs: US-China tensions don't matter as much to Chinese stocks. Bank expects a +20% rally in China ahead Markets overall relatively quiet, bonds rally (slight relief), FX specifics, MXN & CAD weaker on 25% tariffs chatter and CNH rallies 1pct as no big drama so far there, let's what actually happens over next few days, weeks >>> EXPECT the usual tweets around midday european times when DJT wakes up ! "Businessmen became politicians and were acclaimed as statesmen, while statesmen were taken seriously only if they talked the language of successful businessmen." — Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism The White House It will all be there ! >> President Trump's America First Priorities – The White House Trump’s inauguration: In pictures - BBC News Trump pardons January 6 rioters and ditches climate accord - see full list of acts On First Day Of His New Term, Donald Trump Is As Divisive And Self-Obsessed As Ever | HuffPost UK Politics Sky News on X: "From an awkward kiss to Elon Musk's dance moves - here are some of the quirky moments captured on camera during the inauguration ceremony. https://t.co/f5KC0c7YjO https://t.co/K7L3a3ECT7 " / X Some Execs orders : - 25% tariffs on Canada & Mexico from 1 Feb, unless they curb flow of drugs & migrants -100% tariffs on China if no deal done on TikTok -State of national emergency and deployed troops to the Mexico border -Reinstated “Remain in Mexico” programme -Designated cartels as “global terrorists” -Scrapped Biden’s EV mandate & restrictions on Alaska drilling >> drill baby drill, but.. -Withdrew US from Paris Agreement and WHO -Hiring freeze on federal government - Exit out of the Paris Climate accord (again) -Declared a national energy emergency -Exit the WHO -1600 rioters on Jan 6 2021 have been pardoned -No US Citizenship for everyone born in the US -A 90 Day halt in foreign aid to reassess it U.S. oil production 2023 | Statista crude production is already on highs.. Watch CNBC's full interview with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller Stanley Druckenmiller says 'animal spirits' are back in markets because of Trump with CEOs 'giddy' UK's Reeves launches bid to protect car-loan providers in mis-selling case, FT reports Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 I know that implementing tariffs on Canada and Mexico is done for political reasons, but we should be very clear how inconsistent they are with a functioning trade policy. In fact these tariffs will actually make US trade deficits larger. https://t.co/vyP0oXJKpI " / X TikTok, the company that changed internet culture | Technology | EL PAÍS English

Week ahead : MLK day, WEF and Trump inauguration, could be pretty wild, fast & furious : Policy announcements from Donald Trump’s inauguration speech and the first days in office will have significant market implications (markets will adjust swiftly..), you want to be on Truth Social ! this is where the U.S govt will communicate from. This President, we know, does things his own way, the coins this weekend were quite something (on inauguration eve, leader of the free worls, this is what Trump is focused on?) ! 100 executives orders, tariffs (big and bold or gradual, we shall see), somehow markets as we stand, think that Trump will not do anything to upset markets, thus beware, expect things to be more volatile this week, either way >> ''mass deportations, crypto regs, UKR/RU war to end within 2days!, Israel (Trump already winning!..), tax cuts, reduce deficit, foreign policy in general could be wild etc Trump to Declare National Energy Emergency, Unlocking New Powers - President-elect Donald Trump plans to invoke emergency powers to boost domestic energy production and reverse President Joe Biden's climate change actions. Trump's actions will aim to increase oil and gas development on federal lands, roll back climate regulations, and reorient federal policy to support fossil fuels. The emergency declaration could unlock special powers to direct energy production, transmission, and transportation, but its specific use and effectiveness are unclear IMF warns Trump's plans could backfire on the US Goldman Sachs CEO says that AI can draft 95% of an IPO prospectus “in minutes.” BoE delays Basel bank capital rules by one year Majority of BOJ board members likely to vote for rate hike this week >>> all but priced though near 23bps or so Davos 2025 is about growth, growth, growth #XAGUSD : swapping futures contracts for the actual physical asset at record levels Trump promises ‘historic’ day one with barrage of executive orders | Donald Trump | The Guardian Trump promises harsh immigration crackdown on inauguration eve | Reuters What went on this weekend is quite something : The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: Donald Trump’s memecoin, $TRUMP, crashes over -40% as Melania Trump launches her own memecoin. This is beyond insane. https://t.co/6Oj2GGqjqF " / X Demetri Kofinas on X: "The first-lady just launched her own meme coin. These people have NO SHAME. They're not interested in leading the country or leading people to the promised land, unless by "promise land" they mean WGMI. Many of the people who love and believe in them are also the exit liquidity." / X Melania Trump launches cryptocurrency on eve of inauguration - BBC News Wall Street says 'risks are mitigated' as Trump prepares second global trade war IMF warns Trump economic policy threatens global disruption Davos 2025 is about growth, growth, growth. The UK must listen US-UK relations will flourish under Trump, says PM - BBC News Gaza ceasefire latest: Emotional reunions after Palestinians released by Israel - amid optimism as ceasefire enters second day | World News | Sky News Majority of BOJ board members likely to vote for rate hike next week - Nikkei Asia The Year That Will Be 2025 – Blonde Money Great stuff from Team Blonde Money ! love it Fed Reserves Plummet By $326BN Back Under $3 Trilion, Just In Time For Massive Treasury Cash Flood | ZeroHedge BoE delays Basel bank capital rules by one year Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "This is very intriguing.   Traders are currently swapping futures contracts for the actual physical asset at record levels.   H/t @wmiddelkoop https://t.co/vK6yPAFsux " / X

Up to Greenland to decide its future, Danish PM tells Trump Scott Bessent's testimony pretty consistent with what has been said/planned, cut spending, bonds liking it together with the help on the day from Fed's Waller FED's Waller : Rate cuts are possible in the next few months. He notes the December CPI suggests PCE will come in at or close to the Fed's target for the sixth time in the last eight months. If inflation continues on this path through the beginning of 2025, it's "reasonable to think that possibly rate cuts could happen in the first half of the year." Budget deficit rose in December and is now 40% higher than it was a year ago Peter Thiel : A time for truth and reconciliation .Trump’s return to the White House augurs the ‘apokálypsis’ of the ancien regime’s secrets, a must read below Marco Rubio, Trump's nominee for secretary of state, on the threat posed by China: "If we stay on the road we're on right now, in less than 10 years, virtually everything that matters to us in life will depend on whether China will allow us to have it or not." There is a chance to end the war this year. Trump wants to do it. He is able to put pressure on Russia" - Zelensky Google Bard asked Bill Nye how AI can help avoid the end of the world. Here’s what ‘The Science Guy’ said UK's Badenoch: "We announced that we would leave the European Union before we had a plan for growth outside the EU." First time a Conservative leader has admitted that 1. Brexit caused economic damage and 2. Their entire approach to Brexit was economically reckless >>> yeps as said since then, it was pure ideological vandalism ! “China today accounts for around 27% of global industrial production, up from 24% in 2018. By 2030, the UN predicts, China’s share of industry will have risen to 45%” - WSJ Iron Ore shipments from top Australian port hit annual record Up to Greenland to decide its future, Danish PM tells Trump Budget deficit rose in December and is now 40% higher than it was a year ago China's economy meets official growth target, but many feel a downturn | Reuters Darth Powell on X: "This was the best financial interview I've ever watched. These 3 minutes with THE Dr Lacy Hunt should be required listening https://t.co/pvYH5ghv1v " / X - Must listen really - It has often been discussed, eventually it will matter.. THE Dr. Lacy Hunt on the economy. 1 -The US CANNOT spend our way out of this, it will fail -When DEBT/GDP >90% for over 5y you lose about 30% of your standard of living -We have lost 40% of our economic growth rate due to government spending -Demographics are bad and going to hurt us Trump Treasury pick Scott Bessent defends sweeping tariffs in contentious Senate hearing Will markets cheer Bessent's testimony? - MarketWatch Iron Ore Shipments From Top Australian Port Hit Annual Record Rio Tinto and Glencore discuss potential merger - MINING.COM Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders going to Trump's inauguration Wall Street banks see deal activity picking up, even after record results Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, and other big bank CEOs on Donald Trump Musk Said to Have Intervened to Help Free Italian Jailed in Iran - The New York Times Elon is really involved with everything on the planet.. A must read... Peter Thiel : A time for truth and reconciliation A time for truth and reconciliation Trump’s return to the White House augurs the ‘apokálypsis’ of the ancien regime’s secrets  In 2016, President Barack Obama told his staff that Donald Trump’s election victory was “not the apocalypse”. By any definition, he was correct. But understood in the original sense of the Greek word apokálypsis, meaning “unveiling”, Obama could not give the same reassurance in 2025. Trump’s return to the White House augurs the apokálypsis of the ancien regime’s secrets. The new administration’s revelations need not justify vengeance — reconstruction can go hand in hand with reconciliation. But for reconciliation to take place, there must first be truth. Google Bard asked Bill Nye if AI can help avoid the end of the world A return of the resistance? - POLITICO A return of the resistance? Group of former Biden officials assembles to fight Trump’s executive orders in court and rally public opinion Rachel Reeves: I won’t let them get me down The £300 billion Ponzi Scheme – How The Department for Transport and HS2 Mafia Falsified Figures and Robbed Taxpayers The £300 billion Ponzi Scheme – How The Department for Transport and HS2 Mafia Falsified Figures and Robbed Taxpayers Michael Gross argues that High Speed 2, Britain's continually delayed railway infrastructure project, is the worst government corruption scandal in our history SpaceX's Starship explodes in flight test, forcing airlines to divert | Reuters UBS-CS vor Hot-Weeks: Nächste Cut-Welle, Bonus-Fight – Inside Paradeplatz

Scott Bessent's confirmation hearing today will probably be more important for the bond market than any other data >> No doubt there will be some talk about his favoured issuance strategy Gaza ceasefire deal reached by Israel and Hamas, the hard work starts now though Markets : a strong employment data last Friday and now a slightly softer U.S CPI (PPI), doesn't get much better for markets in short-term, however in Japan, we got higher PPI YoY in Dec at 3.8% >>> DAX well above ATH's, EUR50 following, NASDAQ right back at levels the bears don't want to break, bulls will rejoice if we do Fed’s Williams: Mon policy ss Data-Dependent in Highly uncertain environment, is ‘well positioned’ for Economic Outlook IEA report : Global oil demand rose seasonally in 4Q24, posting robust annual growth of 1.5 mb/d – the strongest level since 4Q23 and 260 kb/d higher than our previous forecast French nuclear generation climbs to the highest level in almost six years, compensating for lower wind-power output in western Europe #URA BlackRock assets climb to $ 11'550'000'000'000... $11.5 Trn.. DoubleLine’s Gundlach says the Fed looks like Mr. Magoo , focuses too much on 'short-termism' VanEck : Gold stocks seek to reconnect with gold in 2025 #GLD UK must rejoin EU customs union, says Lib Dem Davey - Bank of England's Taylor Says It's Time to Cut Interest Rates Mentions of Inventions - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK DoubleLine’s Gundlach says the Fed looks like Mr. Magoo, focuses too much on 'short-termism' Bank of England's Taylor Says It's Time to Cut Interest Rates Japan wholesale inflation steady near 4%, BOJ eyes rate hike next week - CNA German gross domestic product, full year 2024 German economy contracts 0.2% in 2024 in second consecutive annual slowdown ECB's Centeno sees interest rates falling to about 2% as inflation under control | Reuters VanEck-Gold-Commentary-2024-December-SG-HK-TH.pdf Gaza ceasefire deal agreed by Israel and Hamas Oil Market Report - January 2025 – Analysis - IEA >>> The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries Shell to halt Spain gas trading, relocate staff, Cinco Dias reports | Reuters Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin: First New Glenn rocket reaches orbit 129. How Serious Is The UK’s Debt Mess? — The Rest Is Money — Overcast Steph (no not me.. )and Robert are joined by Dr Gerard Lyons, an influential economist and Bank of China board member, to discuss whether Rachel Reeves is wise to ask China to invest in the UK, whether the Chancellor will need to come back for more tax rises later this year and what he really advised Liz Truss to do >>> very good overall view on UK and rest of the world policies, GL is a very sensible speaker UK needs to rejoin EU customs union, says Lib Dem leader Ed Davey If you won't some decent GDP coming back fairly swiftly, then yes 2025, The Year of Reckoning and Disruption – The Armchair Trader 2024 was a year with many surprises, as has been usual the last many years. 2025 looks to become even more interesting, volatile, and maybe chaotic, which is why I choose to label the year 2025 as The Year of Reckoning and Disruption Yoon Suk Yeol: Why has it been so hard to arrest an impeached president? Swedish plan to remove citizenship from people seen as threat to state Apple loses smartphone sales crown in China, drops to third in 2024 | Reuters Sven-Goran Eriksson died millions of pounds in debt Discusting, again, sadly happens to far too many folks, there is no shortcut to finding a trusted adviser !! we keep it simple, for various many reasons, primarily because our clients asked us to do so We ignore Sudan at our peril. This campaign of mass murder and rape will have global consequences | Nesrine Malik | The Guardian

The USD has carried its momentum from late 2024 into 2025.  Bank of America notes that there is scant historical precedence for current market and policy conditions with respect to the dollar.  The ones that do exist suggest further dollar upside from here.  However, Bank of America argues that the dollar should eventually turn lower this year >>> higher UST and risk-off lately pushed $ top new highs, a 'slightly softer' U.S CPI (this afternoon) could change sentiment, January's are often a month of two halves..beware! Tatical tops in UST yields, USDollar, looking to tactical moves / correction in equity markets too, relief rally GBP, EMG etc And this afternoon, Rubio vows to place US interests 'above all else' as Trump's top diplomat UK inflation date slightly softer, good news >> markets adjust immediately to 2 cuts from BoE in 2025, good for £ Trump says he’s creating ‘External Revenue Service’ for tariffs European gas prices soar after Russian gas flow via Ukraine stops, EU to propose ban on Russian aluminum imports in new sanctions package 5 transformational trends shaping global finance/WEF report Donald Trump Jack Smith Report: Six Key Bombshells Spain plans 100% tax for homes bought by non-EU residents >>> that's the end of the housing bull market there then #XAg Silver’s growing importance in Clean Energy and Innovation Here we go again.. French Socialist Party raises threat of backing no-confidence vote against government BOJ chief Ueda signals rate hike chance next week, yen jumps a little >>> have a look at charts, but a break sub 156 USDJPY and we could see a decent reaction, BoJ meeting is next week Tanker rates extend rally on sanctions, demand to load Mideast oil BOJ chief Ueda signals rate hike chance next week, yen jumps | Reuters UK inflation rate falls to 2.5% in December Rachel breathing again, good news Trump plans to create an 'External Revenue Service' for tariffs Rubio vows to place US interests 'above all else' as Trump's top diplomat This afternoon - will make headlines no doubt ECB Defends Rate-Cutting Path in Face of Traders Paring Bets French Socialist Party raises threat of backing no-confidence vote against government | Reuters Silver’s Growing Importance in Clean Energy and Innovation EU to propose ban on Russian aluminum imports in new sanctions package - MINING.COM Russia Tests Cutting Off Access to Global Web, and VPNs Can't Get Around It Tanker rates extend rally on sanctions, demand to load Mideast oil | Reuters Ukraine strikes Russia overnight, claiming largest attack of war so far Good Thread Michael Green on X: "It's nice to see people finally questioning the narrative on bonds. It's China, people, not deficits or Debt/GDP. Deficits growing faster in China than US, Debt/GDP climbing more rapidly. China is running a trillion dollar trade surplus with the West and no longer buying Western https://t.co/kiAkFepyXN " / X European gas prices soar after Russian gas flow via Ukraine stops 5 transformational trends shaping global finance | World Economic Forum Deglobalisation Decarbonisation Demographics Debt (lots of it..) Digitalisation Spain plans 100% tax for homes bought by non-EU residents Jack Smith's Report on Donald Trump: Six Bombshells - Newsweek

Trump Team Studies Month-By-Month Tariff Hikes Of 2%-5% - BBG - Trump Still Hasn’t Reviewed Or Approved Gradual Tariff Idea >>> SOFTER stance, Bessent (very much in charge..3x3x3) , Hassett, Miran Discussing Gradual Tariffs, People Say >>> next up KEY : forecasters expect the December (PPI first) and tom CPI to show that core prices rose a bit less than in November, up 0.26% to hold the 12-month rate at 3.3% The median forecast has headline CPI rising a bit more, pushing 12-month inflation to 2.9% Fitch : economic losses related to California fires range from $150B to $275B Gaza deal 'can get done this week': White House, Hamas also said last night that they were keen on reaching a ceasefire deal in Gaza.. An out-of-the box idea for China and Trump Washington and Beijing should conduct a joint intervention on the renminbi Earnings Growth: For Q4 2024, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 11.7%. If 11.7% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 >>> seems rather optimistic.. Goldman Sachs sees equities being priced for perfection.  While much of the gain in equities over the last few years had been driven by better fundamentals, valuation expansion was also material.  The growing disconnect between stock performance and interest rate expectations is also worth cautioning Theodore Roosevelt started a version of DOGE too , but it failed to achieve much after Congress rejected its recommendations CBO Estimates $710 Billion Deficit for First Three Months of Fiscal Year 2025 Russia oil sanctions cut Trump wiggle room on Iran L.A.’s fire nightmare may carry a $150 Billion price tag EU shipyards are fixing Russia’s Arctic LNG tankers OIL MARKET: After meeting President Trump in Mar-a-Lago, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says Canada should prepare for 25% tariffs starting on Jan 20 on all US-bound products, ***including on crude oil*** An out-of-the box idea for China and Trump Louis Curran on X: "Co-Ordianted PBOC/USTR FX Intervention In ( $USDCNY ⤵️) To Offset Sanctions - IDEA An out-of-the box idea from Former US Treasury Official suggesting sales of the Dollar vs RMB would work for both nations. I agree Note the surge in China exports ( now at 1.0 Trillion https://t.co/DJY5z4n8zw " / X Threat works Mexico pledges to shrink trade deficit with China in nod to Donald Trump BOJ deputy governor flags chance of rate hike next week | Reuters EU shipyards are fixing Russia’s Arctic LNG tankers - Fulham Enterprise Great Thread : Trinh on X: "Big news: China trade surplus reached 1trn in 2024. What are the losers of China trade surplus and what does that tell you about the world? First, let me go through China's NOMINAL (volume is much higher) trade relationship with the world." / X China in talks to sell TikTok to Elon Musk, reports say Mind control monopoly ! all going far too far So much for a speedy transition - POLITICO Tough hurdles ahead The Key to Success for Musk, Ramaswamy, and DOGE | TIME Stagflation Is A Rising Concern For U.S. Markets - See It Market Must admit.. makes a lot of sense Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC's CIO to resign, Bloomberg News reports | Reuters Mark Zuckerberg Criticizes Apple, Says Innovation Has Stalled US Supreme Court rebuffs Meta bid to avoid advertisers' lawsuit https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_011025A.pdf CBO Estimates $710 Billion Deficit for First Three Months of Fiscal Year 2025 | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Russia oil sanctions cut Trump wiggle room on Iran – Breakingviews China's Trade Surplus Surges Close to $1T Ahead of Trump Tariffs - Business Insider Gold vs. Cryptocurrency: Which Is The Better Hedge Against Inflation? – Finance 360 A time for truth and reconciliation A time for truth and reconciliation Trump’s return to the White House augurs the ‘apokálypsis’ of the ancien regime’s secrets Unemployment rises in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Who’s afraid of the Houthis? Iran’s last proxy standing is proving no pushover for Israel L.A.’s Fire Nightmare May Carry A $150 Billion Price Tag Climate activists deface Darwin's grave at London's Westminster Abbey | Reuters why..!? Spain to slap 100% tax on foreign home-buyers in blow to British expat hopefuls - LBC UBS Settles With US Department of Justice Over CS Case

Week ahead : U.S and UK CPI (pretty key!), ECB minutes, Chines GDP data, FOMC beige Book and earnings kick off with banks. Friday, NFP rose 256K : The latest snapshot of the US labor market affirmed what Federal Reserve officials have made clear in recent days: Interest-rate cuts are on hold for the foreseeable future >>> reality is 1st FED cut now not fully priced till Sep 2025, that's now decently repriced in rates markets Crude 5months highs >>> not helping forward looking inflation expectations, U Michigan survey : inflation worries highest since 2008 The ECB can ease policy further this year but must find a middle ground that neither induces a recession nor causes an undue delay in curbing inflation-Philip Lane Elon Musk is being investigated by the UK Counter-terrorism unit over fears that he is trying to incite violence in the UK (EU and other places in same direction) Switzerland drifting towards NATO – largest party For markets, the issue maybe that 41% of revs in the S&P500 come are foreign , a recession in either EU or China will thus have a big impact UST 10-year yield has risen ~440 basis points over the last 5 years to 4.75% To Interact With the Real World, AI Will Gain Physical Intelligence-Wired iPhone loses global market share to rivals with Apple AI absent in China House Republicans face massive debt problem-The Hill >>> you bet, but note most of the G7 countries to in reality with debt to GDP at or heading +120% Trump’s New Economist Makes the Case for 20% Tariffs Bitcoiners spent five years advocating for an ETF, but now that it’s here, it could increase Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets... #BTC Week ahead : Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include US CPI & Retail Sales, China Activity & Trade Data, UK CPI, GDP & Retail Sales, Aussie jobs, ECB Minutes ECB seeking middle ground with rate cuts, Lane tells newspaper | Reuters Consumer Inflation Worries Highest Since 2008, U Of M Survey Says: Wall Street Tumbles To 2-Month Lows Ole S Hansen on X: "#Commodities note: Crude oil continues its rally, gaining 9% this month, with Brent reaching a five-month high. The surge follows sweeping new U.S. sanctions on Russia's energy sector, which could affect tankers carrying approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian" / X Trump’s New Economist Makes the Case for 20% Tariffs The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: US bankruptcies hit a 14-year high in 2024, rising by 9% year-over-year, with a total of 694 large companies going bankrupt. Over the last 2 years, bankruptcies are up 87% and have officially exceeded filings in 2020. In December 2024, 61 large firms filed for https://t.co/fPCrIa6q27 " / X To Interact With the Real World, AI Will Gain Physical Intelligence | WIRED Britain wants to become global AI leader, build domestic OpenAI rival iPhone loses global market share to rivals with Apple AI absent in China | Tech News - Business Standard China's December imports records a surprise jump, exports beat expectations Switzerland drifting towards NATO – largest party — RT World News Trump border czar privately tempers Republican lawmaker expectations on administration’s initial deportation operation | CNN Politics California Democrats get an early taste of new clashes with Trump as wildfires rage on House Republicans face massive debt problem in passing Trump agenda Italy's Georgia Meloni gains favour with Donald Trump According to Italian PM, Georgia Meloni, Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and has captured only 0.06% of Ukrainian territory in the past year, dismantling the narrative that “Russia has already won.” Meloni also predicts that Trump will not abandon Ukraine. "He is aware that this speech will belong to history": how François Bayrou prepares his big speech - Le Parisien En Suisse, le maintien du Conseil fédéral sur X alimente un malaise dans la classe politique - Le Temps Lithium prices to stabilise in 2025 as mine closures, China EV sales ease glut, analysts say | Reuters

LA wildfires are now the costliest fires US history, with losses > $50 billion, per WSJ, absolutely incredible worrying scenes over there PBOC suspends Government Bond purchases to manage market Imbalance and Support Yuan stability Markets : overall, stay defensive, avoid crowded trades in Eq, BTC and other coins really struggling (NO mention from Musk nor Trump on the coins lately..). Move up in YIELDS last 2-3months, has been brutal, surprise many in markets, risk of further negative reaction in equity markets. #GOLD stayed firm(er) this week, even with #BTC down. USD stays firm, but let's see after NFP, it's Friday.. market positioning long USD etc and PBOC also trying to stop USDCNH overnight European Union is considering legal action against Elon Musk for election interference Japan’s base pay rises most in 32 Years >> rates ? JPY ? DOJ cleared to sell $6.5B in Bitcoin seized from Silk Road US mortgage applications volume at the lowest since 2011,  like stating the obvious, but housing market doesn't work with +7% mortgage rates  as ''the new normal'' Gavekal / Before investors bed in strategies and reset portfolios for a new year, we wanted to offer 10 contrarian insights that may challenge their views. Here is a brief selection Saxo - Global #container   #freight  rates show a fourth, albeit moderate, weekly rise with the Drewry Composite up 2% to $3986.5 per 40ft box New ISM data, a key leading indicator for CPI, shows priced paid by purchasing managers are a 22-MONTH high, U.S CPI next week.... watch out! could be hot ! Musk says DOGE might not be able to cut $2 trillion , quelle surprise.. Fed Officials Signal Interest Rates Likely on Hold for a While : Several FED officials confirmed Thursday the US central bank will likely hold interest rates at current levels for an extended period, only cutting again when inflation meaningfully cools.  BlackRock quits climate group as Wall Street lowers environmental profile Fed's Bowman said December rate cut was 'last step' in 'policy recalibration' Fed's Bowman said December rate cut was 'last step' in 'policy recalibration' China halts bond buying to defend yuan as economic gloom worsens | The Straits Times EUR/USD stuck in familiar territory ahead of NFP Friday Musk says DOGE might not be able to cut $2 trillion, actually - Live Updates - POLITICO Musk Now Skeptical DOGE Effort Can Cut $2 Trillion From Budget -  “I think we’ll try for $2 trillion. I think that’s like the best-case outcome,” Musk told Mark Penn, a political strategist and the chairman of Stagwell Inc., in an interview broadcast on X, adding that he thought “we’ve got a good shot” at getting $1 trillion in cuts Musk hosts love-fest with far-right AfD chief on X  – POLITICO Japan’s Base Pay Rises Most in 32 Years, Helping Rate Hike Path UK's Reeves under pressure after financial markets rout | Reuters Gavekal on X: "Before investors bed in strategies and reset portfolios for a new year, we wanted to offer 10 contrarian insights that may challenge their views. Here is a brief selection. 🧵📈📊" / X BlackRock quits climate group as Wall Street lowers environmental profile | Reuters The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The Fed's worst nightmare has begun: New ISM data, a key leading indicator for CPI, shows priced paid by purchasing managers are a 22-MONTH high. The last time ISM Prices Paid were this high, inflation in the US was at 6.0%+ in February 2023. Inflation is HOT. (a thread)" / X Bob Elliott on X: "The global rise in bond yields is a significant market-based tightening at a time when most see further easing needed instead. Equities have so far looked immune to these rate rises, suggesting markets have yet to reflect the impacts of this acute rate rise. Thread." / X Ole S Hansen on X: "Global #container #freight rates show a fourth, albeit moderate, weekly rise with the Drewry Composite up 2% to $3986.5 per 40ft box. Increases on the two major China to US routes, ahead of tariffs and port strikes (now averted), being partly offset by declines on the EU-bound https://t.co/gdIulAn9Ab " / X Why Donald Trump wants Greenland Bolton added: “We know from repeated efforts by the Chinese to extend their influence, they want to become an Arctic power . . . So given Greenland’s geographic proximity to the US . . . it’s obviously a strategic interest.” Denmark, whose own troop presence on Greenland is limited to an Arctic Command of just 75 people, has tried to demonstrate to the US that it is willing to upgrade its security presence on the island Elon Musk’s xAI Launches Stand-Alone Grok App - WSJ Busted! Trump’s Greenland Supporters Were Homeless and Socially Disadvantaged People Bribed With Hotel Dinners - MeidasTouch News Exclusive | UBS Close to Large Settlement Over Credit Suisse Tax Case - WSJ Never ending! DOJ cleared to sell $6.5B in Bitcoin seized from Silk Road

Markets : Stocks swinging hard (SPX500 back to Nov 6 lev-beware 'owned stocks and thematic stuff', quantum yesterday..), Crude prices trade like recession has been avoided, GOLD prices grind higher still, UST yields trade like inflation rebounding (though very s.t did well on the 30y auction yesterday), USDollar remains king (not much choice elsewhere!!..), China trades like there is no floor anywhere (debt pile galore), Crypto trading like bull market stalling out, UK/GBP getting 'bonvigilanted' (chart) FOMC minutes reveal officials’ concerns over inflation and impact of potential trade policy changes, ''December's rate cut call as 'finely balanced''' Quantum Computing stocks dive after Nvidia CEO says Tech 15-30 Years away Poilievre’s PM odds on Polymarket surge to 93% after Justin Trudeau’s resignation Why Trump’s pursuit of Greenland could be cheered on by Russia Corporate borrowers kick off 2025 with record-setting $83bn bond bonanza. Issuers pounce on surging investor demand for debt before Donald Trump returns to the WH FOMC minutes reveal officials’ concerns over inflation and impact of potential trade policy changes FOMC members saw December's rate cut call as 'finely balanced' Why Trump's pursuit of Greenland could be cheered on by Russia Greenland: Where is the territory and who controls it? will EU invite them in ? Musk examines how to oust Starmer as UK premier before next election Technology billionaire is interested in building support for another political party, notably Reform UK, Musk gets involved in many countries, creating political chaos, which he and few other oligarchs will benefit from... China's consumer inflation slows further in December, stoking deflation worries Corporate borrowers kick off 2025 with record-setting $83bn bond bonanza Hedgeye on X: "🧵 On this day in 1835, President Andrew Jackson celebrated something that seems impossible today: He paid off the ENTIRE U.S. national debt. The story of how America went from $0 in debt to $36,000,000,000,000 will blow your mind... A thread https://t.co/e7hujK7RZ0 " / X good read DOGE is hiring full-time salaried employees. These are the roles Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy aim to fill. Quantum Computing Stocks Dive After Nvidia CEO Says Tech 15-30 Years Away And just like that 'quantum eq names' get smashed 50%, after some huge rallies lately..but still - huge brutal moves Poilievre's PM odds on Polymarket surge to 93% after Justin Trudeau’s resignation - CoinJournal and his views : Pierre Poilievre on X: "Canada will never be the 51st state. Period. We are a great and independent country. We are the best friend to the U.S. We spent billions of dollars and hundreds of lives helping Americans retaliate against Al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks. We supply the U.S. with billions of dollars of" / X Terrible situation out there, astonishing really California wildfires latest: New fire breaks out in Hollywood Hills - as five killed and 130,000 told to flee homes | US News | Sky News The Russo-Ukraine War in 2025 French and German foreign ministers meet Syria’s new leaders in first high-level EU visit since Assad’s toppling Editorial: Donald Trump’s Greenland claims provide a frightening glimpse into ‘America First’ future Why Does Trump Want the Panama Canal? Here’s What to Know - The New York Times Mexico president chides Trump: Mexican America 'sounds nice' | Reuters