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Bundestag voting on historic financial package, Trump weighs recognizing Crimea as Russia territory in bid to end war, NVDA's Jensen Huang delivers keynote address at the AI developers conference, Iranian spy vessel sunk by U.S and China off to a very robust start in 2025 Markets : GOLD keeps on going (4K next year) dragging few others with it (pick you miners !!! Precious Metals ETF Allocations Near Secular Lows (or go via ETF's.. #GDX #SIL etc ), crude rallied last few days and copper hits $5 for first time in nearly 1 year, USD continues to underperform (U.S exceptionalism over - for now anyway), while the other side rallies, EURO ( 1.1200 area the initial target )and CNH (about to make a move? sub 7.22 ?) #TSLA's supremacy is truly over, $50 next year not impossible... BYD shares hit record high on 5-minute EV charging claims Long/Short Hedge Funds are now the least long stocks since AT LEAST 2020  according to Goldman Sachs Airstrikes across Gaza as Israel vows to target Hamas 'with increasing military force' BoA's Harnett >>> Bottom line…sentiment/positioning/price signal equity correction not quite over; we say buy SPX at 5300 once BofA FMS cash surges above 4%, HY spreads approach 400bps, equity outflows accelerate ." Global Primer Series: STIR Trading - Understanding SOFR mechanics and STIR trading >>> link below, pretty goood! UK and EU Advance Talks on Seizing Frozen Russian Assets  - UK and European Union will advance talks on how to seize frozen Russian assets to jointly boost defense spending, as they seek ways to increase economic pressure on Vladimir Putin ahead of any peace talks to end his war on Ukraine/BBG Landlocked Switzerland becomes world’s largest container ship nation Trump authorizing his administration to immediately begin producing energy with coal Germany's Bundestag to vote on historic financial package Trump weighs recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in bid to end war | Semafor Nvidia to unveil new AI chips at GTC 2025: What to expect Trump's trade war with Europe threatens $9.5 trillion worth of business Xinhua Headlines: Chinese economy off to robust start in 2025 as growth gains momentum-Xinhua BYD Shares Jump to Record on Five-Minute EV Battery Charging Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA ⛏⛏ on X: "Precious Metals ETF Allocations Near Secular Lows These have begun to move up, but there is a really long way to go. Thanks @Callum_Thomas who tracks this. https://t.co/jkAw2HNCoS " / X Heavy Israel strikes in Gaza kill at least 250, Palestinian health authorities say | Reuters Airstrikes across Gaza as Israel vows to target Hamas 'with increasing military force' Baidu shares jump 10% following release of new free-to-use AI models Is a recession coming? What Trump, Elon Musk, and allies are saying Neil Sethi on X: "BoA's Hartnett: "since 1998 there have been 11 corrections (price declines >10%) in S&P 500, with an average price decline of 14.3% (equates to 5268 on S&P 500 today; sentiment/positioning/price signal that equity correction over [when]: 1. BofA FMS cash levels [released Mar https://t.co/oaBY74HCGG " / X Global Primer Series: STIR Trading Tesla's 'creepy' robots won't always look that way, Musk says 'James Bond' Schilthorn summit re-opens in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Landlocked Switzerland becomes world’s largest container ship nation - SWI swissinfo.ch

Markets : #SPX implied move for the week has dropped to 140 points. Key market-moving events include the U.S Retail Sales today, Jensen Huang’s keynote presentation, FOMC meeting with Powell’s speech (pretty sure they will mark down growth expectations and up their year-end '25 inflation projections), and of course Trump’s daily rants. Consumer sentiment weakening across board in the U.S >>> USD should remain under pressure overall, GOLD, XAG, XPT all doing the job (#GDX #SILJ long way to catch up), BTC struggling to get any traction, Equity markets had a decent short-covering rally on Friday (from oversold levels), let's see what retails sales, FOMC and German budget vote bring over next few days, in addition with geopolitics Merz : „Whatever it takes.“ Japan’s 30y government bond yield rises to 2.62%, highest since July 2006 What's Trump's endgame with global tariffs? 2. April tariffs for everyone.. China maps out plan to raise incomes and boost consumption, At a time when the US is slashing federal research funding, China is boosting its public spending on science & technology by 10% this year How the U.S. is losing ground to China in nuclear fusion, as AI power needs surge Comments over the weekend haven’t helped bring much support with Bessent  once again challenged to reaffirm a put for growth only to be met with more indifference. “… saying the country needs to be weaned off what he called massive government spending.” - nothing more true Green energy stocks fall back to levels last seen 5 years ago Warren Buffett's Berkshire may sell its real estate brokerage business. What it means This week's economic / expectations Economic Calendar Friedrich Merz on X: "„Whatever it takes.“ (tm) https://t.co/bcQ29W4uus " / X Gold’s going to reach $4,000, says Gundlach. He also puts recession probability at 60%. - MarketWatch couldn't agree more ‘All options are on the table’ when it comes to Iran, Mike Waltz says - POLITICO Trump trade war leads Canada to pause purchase of F-35 fighter jets China economy: new plan to raise incomes and boost consumption | Fortune The U.S. is falling behind China in nuclear fusion, needed to power AI Germany to ease government debt limits in major step aimed at boosting economy, defense spending | The Independent What's Trump's endgame with global tariffs? Canadian officials say they have a clearer idea | CBC News Is Warren Buffett selling his real estate empire? His latest move is a clear warning that the property market is in serious trouble; here's what you need to know Treasury Secretary Bessent says Trump is heading off financial crisis Elon Musk tries again to get a $56 billion pay plan back as his revolt roils Delaware Elon Musk Has Wanted the Government Shutdown | WIRED PAA Research on X: "I'm sure there isn't anything new to the $TSLA bears in this video, but when someone with the reach and scientific expertise of @MarkRober puts the company's self driving technology to the test it's probably worth watching. It did not go well... Will this video further weigh on" / X Trump launches large-scale strikes on Yemen's Houthis, at least 31 killed | Reuters Trump says he will speak with Putin on Tuesday about ending war in Ukraine | Reuters Fresh US strikes in Yemen with 53 now dead, Houthis say - BBC News Inside and outside the Senate, Democrats begin to lose faith in Schumer | CNN Politics Reeves to meet regulators as Starmer pledges to cut red tape Green energy stocks decline due to political uncertainty | News Minimalist Most Above-Ground Silver Is Unavailable to Satisfy Demand | SilverSeek

Markets : #SPX implied move for the week has dropped to 140 points. Key market-moving events include the U.S Retail Sales today, Jensen Huang’s keynote presentation, FOMC meeting with Powell’s speech (pretty sure they will mark down growth expectations and up their year-end '25 inflation projections), and of course Trump’s daily rants. Consumer sentiment weakening across board in the U.S >>> USD should remain under pressure overall, GOLD, XAG, XPT all doing the job (#GDX #SILJ long way to catch up), BTC struggling to get any traction, Equity markets had a decent short-covering rally on Friday (from oversold levels), let's see what retails sales, FOMC and German budget vote bring over next few days, in addition with geopolitics Merz : „Whatever it takes.“ Japan’s 30y government bond yield rises to 2.62%, highest since July 2006 What's Trump's endgame with global tariffs? 2. April tariffs for everyone.. China maps out plan to raise incomes and boost consumption, At a time when the US is slashing federal research funding, China is boosting its public spending on science & technology by 10% this year How the U.S. is losing ground to China in nuclear fusion, as AI power needs surge Comments over the weekend haven’t helped bring much support with Bessent once again challenged to reaffirm a put for growth only to be met with more indifference. “… saying the country needs to be weaned off what he called massive government spending.” - nothing more true Green energy stocks fall back to levels last seen 5 years ago Warren Buffett's Berkshire may sell its real estate brokerage business. What it means This week's economic / expectations Economic Calendar Friedrich Merz on X: "„Whatever it takes.“ (tm) https://t.co/bcQ29W4uus " / X Gold’s going to reach $4,000, says Gundlach. He also puts recession probability at 60%. - MarketWatch couldn't agree more ‘All options are on the table’ when it comes to Iran, Mike Waltz says - POLITICO Trump trade war leads Canada to pause purchase of F-35 fighter jets China economy: new plan to raise incomes and boost consumption | Fortune The U.S. is falling behind China in nuclear fusion, needed to power AI Germany to ease government debt limits in major step aimed at boosting economy, defense spending | The Independent What's Trump's endgame with global tariffs? Canadian officials say they have a clearer idea | CBC News Is Warren Buffett selling his real estate empire? His latest move is a clear warning that the property market is in serious trouble; here's what you need to know Treasury Secretary Bessent says Trump is heading off financial crisis Elon Musk tries again to get a $56 billion pay plan back as his revolt roils Delaware Elon Musk Has Wanted the Government Shutdown | WIRED PAA Research on X: "I'm sure there isn't anything new to the $TSLA bears in this video, but when someone with the reach and scientific expertise of @MarkRober puts the company's self driving technology to the test it's probably worth watching. It did not go well... Will this video further weigh on" / X Trump launches large-scale strikes on Yemen's Houthis, at least 31 killed | Reuters Trump says he will speak with Putin on Tuesday about ending war in Ukraine | Reuters Fresh US strikes in Yemen with 53 now dead, Houthis say - BBC News Inside and outside the Senate, Democrats begin to lose faith in Schumer | CNN Politics Reeves to meet regulators as Starmer pledges to cut red tape Green energy stocks decline due to political uncertainty | News Minimalist Most Above-Ground Silver Is Unavailable to Satisfy Demand | SilverSeek

Markets : Senate Dems to back government funding bill (no choice really), in Germany, they all want to/have to make a point, none of the party will want to go down in history as the one that stopped 'the deal' (get real folks!) , then it'll be about what they do with Russia/UKR, while Putin will try to lengthen the ceasefire talks, not clear what trump will do if he doesn't get a deal like yesterday, Trump has no patience, Putin can have all the patience in the world ..Musk's empire (and leverage) clearly under pressure too. U.S inflation tame but progress stalling, sticky! seems Canada had a good meeting with Lutnick on trade The first five months of FY 2025 produced a deficit of $1.15 TRILLION. That’s $319 Billion more than the deficit recorded in the same period last fiscal year >>> out of control !, hence Trump's urgency !! Equity markets : the BIG deleveraging from large macro HF looks done, (WHEN THE NEWS COME OUT on CNBC..its usually done...)..continue to play against those supports #SPY 5550 area for longs (Citadel, Brevan, they were all it..) China : #HSI etc all strongly higher again , further expectations of economic support and all these AI tools! #repricing continues Risk ahead : Elon is panicking—because his empire is built on overleveraged hype.  Trump is panicking—because Musk propping up his political machine is at risk.  Their billionaire backers are panicking—because their entire ecosystem is on the verge of imploding Treasury Secretary Bessent said the White House is focused on the ‘real economy’ and not concerned about ‘a little’ market volatility (ie Wall Street) China unveils Zuchongzhi-3 quantum supercomputer claimed to be one quadrillion times faster than the world's most powerful supercomputer EU aims for tech sovereignty with ambitious €5 trillion investment plan Rheinmetall is preparing to purchase Volkswagen's automotive factory in Osnabrueck and turn it into an armored vehicle manufacturing plant PBOC easing liquidity | There is speculation that the People’s Bank of China could move to ease liquidity in the Chinese banking system before the week-end The US has been tightening sanctions on Russia by restricting payment’s for energy (BBG) Germany’s Merz implores Greens to approve spending revolution – POLITICO Trump doubles down on tariffs as stocks sink: 'not going to bend' Elon Musk under pressure as Tesla stock craters Citadel, Millennium Losses Expose Pod Shop Vulnerabilities | Nasdaq Inflation may pause Fed interest rate cuts, Bank of America says Meeting with Lutnick on tariffs was constructive, Canadian ministers say | Reuters Putin says Russia backs Ukraine ceasefire plan but there are nuances U.S. budget deficit surged in February, passing $1 trillion for year-to-date record Live: US, Israel reach out to Sudan, Somalia to resettle Palestinians from Gaza | Middle East Eye Treasury Secretary Bessent said the White House is focused on the 'real economy' and not concerned about 'a little' market volatility CALL TO ACTIVISM on X: "FIREWORKS AT THE HEARING: Democrat Rep. John Larson shouts for Republicans to stop blocking Elon from testifying before the House: “WHERE’S ELON MUSK?! If he's so great…if all the fraud…he's found are so imminent, why isn't he here explaining it? https://t.co/mOVm19T4Ql " / X EU Tech Sovereignty and the €5 Trillion Challenge - Inside Telecom Portugal's president disbands parliament, calls election on May 18 | Reuters BBC Politics on X: ""Today we are abolishing the biggest quango in the world" Health secretary Wes Streeting says scrapping NHS England will make "much leaner top of the NHS" and save hundreds of millions of pounds a year Follow latest updates: https://t.co/KPgL4XHrgo https://t.co/jDpOsq8y5c " / X What does NHS England do? And why is it being abolished? - BBC News Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 on X: "🇩🇪 Rheinmetall's new 155mm plant in Unterlüß, Lower Saxony, is due to be completed next month. Will probably add annual production capacity of ~50,000/y initially, bringing Rheinmetall's global total up to at least 800,000/y by year end. Will produce 100,000/y in 2026 & https://t.co/Xbh2aF5Vxw " / X Pentagon asked for military options to access Panama Canal, officials say | Reuters

Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak lays into Elon Musk’s ‘mass firings’: ‘I don’t know what got into his head’ Markets : SPX 5565 (JPM put 'gamma' area holding - slightly lower vol) , Govt shutdown risk, tariffs, recession or slowdown, Trump pushing Russia to accept 30day ceasefire, CAD team meeting Trump today, there are signs that inflation is starting to perk up again as the new admin policies are digested through the economy though.. Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump threatens to ruin Putin with sanctions if he doesn’t accept 30-day ceasefire, G7 foreign ministers meet in Canada amid tensions with Trump and Schumer says Democrats to block GOP bill to prevent U.S. shutdown Brevan Howard Slashes Traders’ Risk-Taking as Losses Exceed 5% >> you can be sure it was same picture out there in some large HF's, hence sharp/fast liquidation...when you get the news, we nearer to short-term base, worth dippin-a-toe-in UST 10's yields up on a 'cooler' CPI - shouldn't they go down ? I was asked, ''well possibly, but signs inflation is not heading towards 2% anytime soon'', PPI up next and all the tariffs 'cost' coming Walmart faces heat from Beijing after demand for price cuts '' go and speak to Trump'' or else it could get ugly FT- In recent weeks, the buzz has been mounting about a new American plan — a “Mar a Lago Accord” — to upend the global monetary system. We can only hope it remains idle chatter, DOA basically.. JPM said the worst of the correction may be over while Ed Yardeni lowered his best case year-end S&P 500 target to 6,400 from 7,000, somewhere else at JPM cuts $TSLA  price target to $120. Sees ~50% downside US corporate bonds issued by riskier borrowers are sliding as concerns rise that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will knock the American economy . The spread paid by junk rates US companies has jumped by 0.56 percentage points since mid-Feburary to a six month high of 3.22% according to Intercontinental Exchange (FT) Keir Starmer will tomorrow announce that AI will replace the work of civil servants if it can do a better jo b The approach will be guided by the mantra: "No person’s substantive time should be spent on a task where digital or AI can do it better, quicker & to the same high quality and standard" #GOLD first the metal now the miners #GDX .. should look similar to Silver, SILJ, XPT eventually too... Brevan Howard Slashes Traders’ Risk-Taking as Losses Exceed 5% You can be sure it was same picture in many other large HF's...hence the liquidation Instant View: Tamer Feb US CPI may not budge Fed, given tariff picture Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak lays into Elon Musk’s ‘mass firings’: ‘I don’t know what got into his head’ Tariffs and the energy transition: Key short- and long-term drivers of copper demand | Saxo Schumer says Democrats to block GOP bill to prevent U.S. shutdown Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump threatens to ruin Putin with sanctions if he doesn’t accept 30-day ceasefire Elon Musk's DOGE Cuts Fail to Stop US Spending From Hitting Record - Newsweek BOJ's Ueda upbeat on consumption, warns of 'too big' balance sheet | Reuters Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord Canadians, stung by Trump's tariffs and rhetoric, balk at US travel | Reuters Nick Timiraos on X: "Bonds don't love the cooler-than-expected February CPI report Weakness in airfares may not show up in the PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, which pulls that price data from the PPI And still-firmer goods prices could lead to core PCE, for a change, running higher than core CPI https://t.co/OHIWQyOcc3 " / X Walmart Faces Heat From Beijing After Demand for Price Cuts WisdomTree launches first European-only defence ETF Mysterious radio signals are coming from ‘unprecedented’ part of space, scientists say | The Independent

Markets : UKR accepted 30day ceasefire (down to Russia now), Trump flip-flopping on tariffs, on, off, back on, reduced, higher (confusing?..yeps) >>> FACT : crude prices down, UST yields down, 'truflation at 4year lows, USDollar down and credit spreads stable, pretty good mix for large US corps (most still have a strong usd in their earnings guidance..) So we've had, MAGA to MEGA, MAGA to China and also MAG7 to LAG7/ Thread, the chaos strategy still 'on' by the sound of things, overall USDollar downside not over! and elevated/rising equity volatility remains (can work both ways, can also snap back!), and in all this chaos, the only asset still steady, strong, going up is GOLD (soon to be followed by Silver and XPT) Donald Trump doing a Tesla infomercial for Elon Musk—his biggest political donor—in front of the White House...strange times Steve Liesman, CNBC’s senior economics reporter: "I am going to say this at the risk of losing my job, but what President Trump is doing is insane… Now he’s saying he’s putting 50 per cent tariffs on Canada unless they agree to become the 51st state. That is insane.”...finally somone at CNBC dared saying it as is.. (perhaps why Trump walked CAD stuff back late in the day? - who knows) EU Targets €26 Billion of US Products in Tariff Retaliation, US Politics & Policy - ‘We have to rebuild our country’: Donald Trump pursues economic shock therapy - the US president’s officials are standing by their strategy to remake the world’s largest economy, White House downplays tanking market as ‘snapshot in time’ – while Trump insists pain may be necessary to ‘rebuild our country’ Canada moves to sell U.S. Treasury bonds in tariff retaliation, size undisclosed. Canada currently holds $328 billion in U.S. bonds #TLT Bloomberg nails it: Putin’s demands are deliberately too extreme for a peace deal. But Trump still thinks Putin wants peace. Putin wants no NATO for Ukraine, recognize territory as Russian, captured and some not, reduce Ukraine military "Tariffs are a tax cut for the American people" - White House ....see below Citi cuts U.S. stocks, upgrades China, not a headline many would have expected... #U.S exceptionalism is over (at leas on pause..) Basel III Countdown: The Gold Crisis Banks Can’t Hide A Bear Market may have already started cautions Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street's most optimistic bulls Lutnick says Trump's policies are "worth it" even if they lead to recession - CBS News Really.. White House downplays tanking market as ‘snapshot in time’ – while Trump insists pain may be necessary to ‘rebuild our country’ Tariffs have increased the probability of a U.S. recession: Pimco Trump tariffs live updates: EU retaliates after Trump tariffs on steel and aluminium take effect - BBC News Citi cuts U.S. stocks, upgrades China By Investing.com U.S exceptionalism over/on pause He who was always bullish near top, in fact all the same, from Ron Baron (TSLA), to Tom Lee and Dan Ives of course...always bullish on higher momentum, now all 'struggled' a bit on CNBC yesterday ( Valuations do matter eventually!!! they always do ) The market is at risk of going lower from here, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel says Rheinmetall expects strong 2025 sales in Europe's 'era of rearmament' Basel III Countdown: The Gold Crisis Banks Can't Hide Idaho Eliminates Income Taxes on Gold and Silver Balaji on X: "FROM MAGA TO CHINA Here are four things MAGA is getting wrong, and why it's handing over the world to China. (1) First, MAGA correctly understands that America’s economic position is in decline but thinks this is due to economic competition itself, rather than lack of" / X Alexander Stahel 🌻 on X: "Let the “Detox” Begin… For decades, the U.S. has run a 4–6% budget deficit, propped up by foreign capital—an unsustainable model now crashing into the limits of the long-term debt cycle. When that tide turns (as seems increasingly inevitable), Soros-style reflexivity will hit https://t.co/zwOuGMqqeT " / X nicely put together! $$$ safe heaven no longer - Couldn't agree more wit Otavio! Price action lately been quite compelling... Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "We have recently noticed an important market development that likely indicates a macro regime shift. The US dollar is no longer acting as a safe haven. Last week recorded the largest decline in the DXY index, alongside an S&P 500 fall that hasn’t been seen in 30 years. Yet, I https://t.co/iWwdDxK1Ox " / X Tesla Stock Plummets As Musk Says His Companies Are Being Run ‘With Great Difficulty’ Somehow, Elon Musk losing $22 billion is not the worst thing that just happened to him after crippling Starlink snub Check this out :-) Aaron Rupar on X: ""Tariffs are a tax cut for the American people" -- Karoline Leavitt turns reality upside down, then gets mad at an AP reporter after he pushes back https://t.co/LMpTueg4Jd " / X Amazon rainforest cut down to build highway for COP climate summit - BBC News

Markets : backlash on TSLA stock, MAG7 malaise (largest daily cap losses yesterday -is that it ?..) and no hiding into BTC (as expected it is now another risk-on or off assets), MSTR and the Reddit crowd got monstered last few days, while solid dividend quality names holding up very well ! clients happy! Hedge funds unwinding risk as in early days of COVID, Goldman Sachs says, MANUS AI in China another break through, Novo Nordisk wasn't pretty, in fact there were not many pretty places other than 'proper value-quality balance-sheets'!! >>> have we done enough ?? certainly done a fair bit of 'growthy silly stocks unwinding' , in this environment, big picture, keep on focusing on quality/value/solid dividends names as we do (these markets will bring some nice opportunities again within the 'growthy crowd', let them come to you..) >>> only question is how hard does Trump want the 'recession to be''... he can flip quickly and agree CAD, MXN deal and be lot more friendly with NATO, or even CHINA... much will depends on HIS mood, stay tuned >>> #SPX lows 5565 !! if you want to go long, play agaisnt the JPM strike !!! German Greens See Chance for Defense Spending Deal This Week >>> SOME compare this EU defense & German deal, as big as back after reunification in early 90's.. #EURO anything big overall Over the last 2 months, the S&P 500 and crypto have erased a combined -$5.5 TRILLION of market cap. We have just witnessed one of the most SUDDEN shifts in sentiment since 2020 U.S. could reach deal with Canada that avoids oil and gas tariffs, energy secretary says, and Trump seeks minerals refining on Pentagon bases to boost US output, sources say CREDIT : YoY change in revolving credit dipped into negative territory in January ... much deeper plunge typically associated with recessions, take note Trump team.. Chinese AI ‘Manus’ went viral like DeepSeek, but can it compete with ChatGPT’s AI agents?....after DeepSeek it should be quite evident now to 'mr market' that China hass been working hard at it for years! and are competing, absolutely not doubt about it, U.S exceptionalism over, they all got far too over confident about their superiority... the U.S dominance, exceptionalism is over and/or on pause...pretty clear now Elon Musk claims cyber attack on social network X came from ‘Ukraine area’ - Outage is latest trouble for world’s richest person’s business interests since he joined the Trump administration Mainland Chinese Investors Buy Record Amount of Hong Kong Stocks Big downside for bank stocks if this 'detox' period turns into recession, says Bank of America FT: NATO insists on deepening cooperation between the EU and Turkey German Greens See Chance for Defense Spending Deal This Week U.S. could reach deal with Canada that avoids oil and gas tariffs, energy secretary says Exclusive: Trump seeks minerals refining on Pentagon bases to boost US output, sources say | Reuters Ukraine strikes Moscow in biggest drone attack on Russian capital | Reuters FT: NATO insists on deepening cooperation between the EU and Turkey - Pravda Turkey White House: Stock market plunge not as 'meaningful' as business moves Japan revises Q4 GDP lower, complicating BOJ's interest rate outlook Gas Prices Drops For Third Consecutive Week Amid Tariff Threats good news! Portugal Could Hold Election in May as Premier Lacks Allies Strategists See More S&P 500 Volatility as Tariff Fears Kick In What to know about Manus, China's 'completely autonomous' AI agent Manus AI agent rivals ChatGPT Operator and Deep Research Oracle (ORCL) Q3 earnings report 2025 Barchart on X: "BREAKING 🚨: Magnificent 7 Mag 7 Stocks sustained total market cap losses of more than $830 Billion today, the group's single largest daily loss in history https://t.co/Vq8K8D899o " / X Bitcoin sinks below $79,000 as Trump tariffs fuel recession fears 𝔗𝔯𝔲𝔱𝔥 𝔐𝔞𝔱𝔱𝔢𝔯𝔰 on X: "I want EVERYONE to take a moment and listen very carefully to this exchange between Mitt Romney and Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs in Europe, ‘Toria’ Nuland in 2022. Her assessment is backed up by an essay by Putin which you can find on the Kremlin website. : https://t.co/phPEJRm9cg " / X J. Safra Sarasin to Buy Majority of Saxo in €1 Billion Deal - SWI swissinfo.ch Statt Vermögen nur AHV - Vermögensverwalter stürzt Millionärin in Existenznöte - Kassensturz Espresso - SRF Novo Nordisk's new obesity drug trial data disappoints again Jacob King on X: "Michael Saylor isn't the genius guru he pretends to be. In fact, he's one of the worst traders in history. He makes his money from deceiving people. Since he first bought BTC, its price has surged over 900%, yet his total gains since 2020 now sits at a mere 19.4%. He could have https://t.co/pYs7oIu8Zl " / X #MSTR scam.. (if you want to hold BTC, through IBIT is the solution long-term holding, cheap and effective). .

Markets : Trump does not rule out 'recession' as he rejects business fears over tariffs..(transition period, induced slowdown..lower rates, get Fed to cut, lower usd and refinance...NO Equity put..), on tech side, everything that matters is sitting right on the 200-day SMA (#SPY #QQQ #IA #BTC (MUST follow - absolutely key for momentum..), JPY remains firm(er), further risk of 'carry unwind' won't help risk sentiment overall Americans are missing their car payments at the highest rate in more than 30 years Scott Bessent (Friday) : “The market and the economy have become hooked, become addicted, to excessive government spending and there’s going to be a detox period .” US blacklists Switzerland for “unfair trade” The Trump administration has effected a revolution in foreign policy. Every country will consider how to wean itself off dependence on the United States . The Post-American World is now in plain sight/That is the risk going forward.. Ukraine-Russia war latest: US to lead talks in Saudi Arabia as Trump warns Ukraine ‘may not survive’, $50 crude would hurt Russia 'more' than sanctions China hits back at Canada with fresh agriculture tariffs, China bond yields jump to three-month highs as investors pare rate cut expectations, China’s consumer inflation turns negative for the first time in 13 months, China vows utmost efforts for 'peaceful reunification' with Taiwan Germany to reach out to France and UK over sharing of nuclear weapons But Friedrich Merz cautions such a move could not replace the US’s existing protective shield over Europe Ukraine - Ukraine seeks to persuade US to resume aid in high-stakes talks - Zelenskyy in bid to persuade Trump he wants an end to war with Russia after freeze on military and intelligence aid The Nasdaq 100 has officially ended its streak of 497 trading days above its 200-day average, the second-longest streak in history Elon Musk said the US should exit NATO as ‘it doesn’t make sense for America to pay for the defence of Europe (BBG) Friedrick Merz may make concessions to the Greens to secure support for major defence and infrastructure spending . Italy is considering adding as many as 40,000 soldiers to its army. Meanwhile President Trump said he had largely lifted a freeze on US intelligence sharing with Ukraine ahead of bilateral talks between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia this week (BBG) Blackstone vs. BlackRock: The Greatest Wall Street Frenemy Story Ever Told FT economists’ poll: Germany can spend almost €2tn without harming growth Britain’s biggest unions call for much closer UK-EU ties amid ‘volatile’ global economy, it will happen, one way or another (closer ties) The Bitcoin bear market is here. The failed launch of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve made it clear that there was never any intention to buy anything other than seized BTC. Meanwhile, the institutional demand narrative has collapsed, as seen in record ETF outflows Main indices YTD DAX 40: +17%​ STOXX Europe 600: +9%​ Hang Seng Index: +12%​ Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.5% S&P 500: -2.50%​ NASDAQ Composite: -6.5%​ Ukraine-Russia war latest: US to lead talks in Saudi Arabia as Trump warns Ukraine ‘may not survive’ | The Independent Aaron Rupar on X: "Schiff: "I was just listening to your guest [Kevin Hassett] trying to explain that these on-again off-again tariffs are not about trade. It's a drug war, but next month it's a trade war, but now it's a drug war. It was incomprehensible. And he was also trying to say that jobs https://t.co/B17FKCVtWb " / X Brad Gerstner on X: "Backfire. The more we restrict, the faster the Chinese develop a world class domestic supply chain for AI chips. The US Diffusion regulation will lead to a @Huawei belt & road. We must instead accelerate our own race. LFG! 🇺🇸🚀" / X (1) Beth Kindig on X: "Quantum computing startup PsiQuantum said recently that it has cracked the code for high-volume manufacturing to make millions of quantum computing chips, having partnered with GlobalFoundries $GFS to manufacture its chips in New York. $IONQ $RGTI $QUBT $GOOG $IBM" / X Bitcoin falls below $83,000 as US bitcoin reserve news disappoints | Forexlive Trump won't rule out a recession in 2025 - POLITICO China hits back at Canada with fresh agriculture tariffs | Reuters China bond yields jump to three-month highs as investors pare rate cut expectations Inflation: China consumer price index drops below zero in February China vows utmost efforts for 'peaceful reunification' with Taiwan | Reuters Mark Carney wins race to replace Canada's Trudeau Germany to reach out to France and UK over sharing of nuclear weapons | Germany | The Guardian US blacklists Switzerland for "unfair trade" - SWI swissinfo.ch US car payment delinquencies reach 33-year high: Analysis Japan's real wages drop in January, spring wage talks in focus | Reuters Britain’s biggest unions call for much closer UK-EU ties amid ‘volatile’ global economy | TUC | The Guardian Fareed Zakaria on X: "The Trump administration has effected a revolution in foreign policy. Every country will consider how to wean itself off dependence on the United States. The Post-American World is now in plain sight. My take: https://t.co/qyatP53TJP " / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "BREAKING: The Nasdaq 100 has officially ended its streak of 497 trading days above its 200-day average, the second-longest streak in history. Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 index closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 12th, 2023. After the previous https://t.co/VHrBdHbDaP " / X Short of the Week: Can rudderless Tesla stock break under $200? – The Armchair Trader The longer Elon stays at DOGE, the lower #TSLA shares weill go .. $100 anyone ? What Is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? - Apollo Academy Short-term pain, for long-term gain >>> force a mini recession, softer UST yields in short-end, softer USD and refinance the $7trn... Blackstone vs. BlackRock: The Greatest Wall Street Frenemy Story Ever Told - Barron's Silver is the New Gold

What a week : USD the story (breaking big levels, lower with ease..- price action), BUND, JGB move, DAX, HSI, CHINA all up big time, while U.S markets, MAG7, TSLA get smashed... (Trumpf must be pi""ed, anti U.S sentiment..sell US assets - isolated etc), huge defense response from EU (German vote next week), U.S economy 'stopped', Recession calls on the icnrease ! payrolls this afternoon, HUGE med to long-term support in #SPY 200dma level around 5730, 20K NASDAQ etc... failure to hold... 18K NASDAQ on cards German debt brake 'will' rattle debt/bond markets - whatch your #duration risk Donald Trump’s crypto project made at least $350mn from the launch of his memecoin, a windfall that is likely to fuel concerns over conflicts of interest arising from the token, and that is exactly why he is there.. Donald Trump restrains Doge as concern mounts over scale of job losses US cabinet told to ‘keep all the people you want’ in first sign of pushback against Elon Musk’s cost-cutting project, and on tarrifs : Trump better take a FIRM and FINAL decision to provide guidance to corporations, or else .. Crypto  - Cryptocurrencies decline as Trump’s U.S. bitcoin reserve plan falls short of expectations - Cryptocurrencies fell Thursday night after President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a strategic bitcoin reserve for the United States and, separately, a “digital asset stockpile.”. “The government will not acquire additional assets for the Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.” Trudeau says US tariff war to drag on, Bessent calls him a 'numbskull', and 'Major powers should not bully the weak', China foreign minister says The People’s Bank of China has reported adding a further 5 tonnes to its gold reserves in February. Over the first two months of 2025, it has added 10 tonnes, lifting its total gold holdings to 2,290 tonnes German lawmakers set timetable in race for borrowing bonanza | Reuters EUR/USD forecast: signal after ECB rate cut and US NFP data ECB chief warns of 'risks all over' as rates cut again Cryptocurrencies fall after Trump officially establishes U.S. bitcoin reserve Rory Stewart on X: "1/ Trump has been conned by Putin. Russia isn’t a global superpower—its GDP (~$2 trillion) is smaller than Italy’s and about 1/15 the size of the US. 🧵" / X Trump delays tariffs for goods under Mexico, Canada trade deal | Reuters >> on, off, maybe for 1more month, maybe not... no wonder large businesses are doing close to nothing, they simply don't know what's going on... Trump delays some tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month Donald Trump restrains Doge as concern mounts over scale of job losses Trump delays tariffs for goods under Mexico, Canada trade deal | Reuters Tesla’s Fortunes Fall as Musk Rises in Trump World - WSJ never saw this one coming! Trudeau says US tariff war to drag on, Bessent calls him a 'numbskull' | Reuters Aaron Rupar on X: "CNBC hosts literally laugh at Lutnick as he suggests that t-shirts, sneakers, towels, and TVs will again be made in the US as a result of Trump's trade war https://t.co/0ccNlR5kd3 " / X SpaceX Starship rocket explodes midflight for the second time this year Elon Musk tells Republicans he isn’t to blame for mass firings of federal workers | Trump administration | The Guardian Scott Lincicome on X: "Today, Trump temporarily eliminated his own tariffs to "protect American car manufacturers and American farmers." I could watch this a million times. https://t.co/3FCyuSHxx0 " / X quelle farce.. UBS’s punch line is: “Closing tariff gaps at the product-trading partner level amounts in tariff terms to a blanket tariff increase of 1.65% by the US. This is roughly an order of magnitude smaller than the 10% blanket tariff that candidate Trump was threatening to impose on the world.” So a reciprocal system, to be unveiled April 2, represents a major climbdown dealing with a problem that is not that serious. You can’t easily argue that it’s worth the uncertainty that it is creating. And if this is what indeed results, there’s no need for stocks to sell off like this. The market is, however, sending a clear message that it wants clarity on tariffs, and that it would prefer to do without them altogether. The question, growing ever clearer, is whether the Trump administration will stand up to the market. Donald Trump’s crypto project netted $350mn from presidential memecoin Trump Launches Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, BTC Price Falls The Kobeissi Letter on X: "The statement that broke crypto markets tonight: “The government will not acquire additional assets for the Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.” https://t.co/KXBTjmEQM1 " / X Brad Setser on X: "The relentless upward march in China's trade surplus continued in January and February. The surplus (on a trailing 12m basis) is clearly well over $1 trillion in the well measured customs data. 1/ https://t.co/1XSEGal7hy " / X UK house prices dip in February, demand slows, Halifax data shows | Reuters At ‘two sessions’, China takes aim at an insidious economic foe: ‘neijuan’ | South China Morning Post

From MAGA to MEGA : Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets, Munich meeting, Merz, UK meeting last weekend, Macron now all in one, huge change in EUROPE >>> while Trumpf shoot himself in the foot with threats of tariffs to allies (business uncertainty, can't plan anything, let alone within car manufacturers!), while Musk goes chopping jobs that will hardly make any difference but will certainly hurt confidence >>> USD and QQQ supremacy, US exceptionalism is ''over'' (meaning there sill be other choices now..), talked about MAG7 top before, DeepSeek now clearly (no-one can argue anymore..) a game changer for China, and now EUROPE awakens..and many consumers worldwide stop buying American products, it is happening >>> USD down... heading towards 1.15/1.20 EURO, 130-140 JPY, USDCNH 6.80 possibly, but it is very much about 'Europe, possibly including UK and GBP, so CABLE towards 1.40 why not...in any case this is what Bessent 'is calling' for... so why argue.. Ray Dalio podcast : on the coming cresis in U.S debt BBG- China - Trump’s Tariffs Push Xi to Overhaul China’s Ailing Growth Model - A more decisive shift toward domestic consumption is needed to meet the country’s long-term goals Germany’s ‘whatever-it-takes’ spending push to end years of stagnation - Europe’s largest economy could return to pre-pandemic growth trend Starmer’s Popularity Rises to Six-Month High After Ukraine Talks - his popularity rating rose to the highest level since September after he gathered European leaders in London to create a UK and France-led “coalition of the willing” to safeguard Ukraine U.S : Stagflation fears rise as a brutal jobs report follows new tariffs. Recent economic data show inflation staying sticky even as the labor market weakens Chinese AI model euphoria continues with another Alibaba stock jump. China to Ease Real Estate Curbs, Give Local Gov’ts More Power in Property Collection Indian Silver Imports Surge Despite Higher Prices Richard Woodruff 🇺🇦 on X: "French senator perfectly describes the Trump situation. https://t.co/d7sO1t9mmK " / X Huge speech - well worth 9mins MEGA incl UK Igor Sushko on X: "🚨 BREAKING: French President Macron addressed all Europeans to prepare for war with Russia. This was broadcast live across the continent. Europe will not accept capitulation of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of "peace negotiations." Americans must decide whose side we are on. https://t.co/5AYCayNTC7 " / X Stagflation fears rise as a brutal ADP jobs report follows Trump tariffs The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Inflation is surging: US consumers believe inflation will rise to 6.0% over the next 12 months, the highest since May 2023. This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly increase in expectations, according to the Conference Board survey. Moreover, Americans believe prices will rise https://t.co/5d2s6J1AJ8 " / X Ray Dalio on the Coming Crisis in US Debt - Odd Lots | Podcast on Spotify Japanese 10-year bond yields surge to near 16-year highs YUPS! from MAGA to MEGA !!! Investors spy the dawn of a tectonic shift away from US markets | Reuters Chinese AI Model Euphoria Continues With Another Alibaba Stock Jump - Business Insider China to Ease Real Estate Curbs, Give Local Gov’ts More Power in Property Collection 'Tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war' — China says it's ready to fight Trumpf shooting himself in the foot.... HOW ON EARTH DO YOU PLAN YOUR CAR MANUFACTURING WITH TARIFFS ON, OFF, ON, OFF AGAIN FOR 1MONTH.. absolute joke Mr President, but OK., TSLA shares will end up at $50... Trump exempts some automakers from Canada, Mexico tariffs for one month | Reuters Indian Silver Imports Surge Despite Higher Prices | SilverSeek Michael Pettis on X: "1/14 Maurice Obstfeld argues that the US trade deficit is "caused" by the excess of US spending over US production, but, like most American economists, mainly because he cannot imagine a world in which foreigners, and not Americans, have agency. https://t.co/V6SLBmD7BS " / X (3) Updates LIVE: Trump issues ‘last warning’ to Hamas, Israel maintains Gaza blockade Germany Unveils Historic "Whatever It Takes" Fiscal Package, Sending Swap Spreads Crashing Ahead Of Debt Avalanche | ZeroHedge excellent wrap Ole S Hansen on X: "Higlights from WPIC's Q4-2024 #Platinum report: • Full year 2024 deficit of almost 1Moz and 2025 forecast deficit up 57% to 848 koz on updated forecast • Total supply up 3% in 2024 and is forecast to reduce 4% in 2025 • Automotive demand at 3,130 koz in 2024 and 3,102 koz in https://t.co/yM51oKJZMI " / X Olivier Wieviorka, historian: 'The current context bears some resemblance to the situation before the Second World War'

The German fiscal package is massive (10-20% GDP). - 500 billion 10Y fund for public investment - All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake. - Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment. Germany is back - economically +militarily >>> Imagine if the US announced a $5+ trillion fiscal injection and told you they stand ready to do “as much as it takes” on top. That’s what Germany just announced (in % of GDP) >>> Merz 'whatever it takes' moment, biggest long-end move in Germany since 1998 !! ..thus EURO follows higher, copper much higher, huge fiscal response globally #Duration ! China targets ‘around 5%’ growth in 2025 and lays out stimulus measures as trade worries mount Trump is mulling #Canada , #Mexico  tariff compromise, Lutnick said last night, if so this was the shortest trade war in history.. >>> did Trump blink as SPX approached the 200dma around 5800 ?..we shall see #duration : big picture, it is hard to be too bullish duration with Trumpism forcing HUGE spending across the globe, term and inflation increases and will weith on th elong-end eventually + a huge $7trm refinancing in the U.S this year alone is coming (which is why Bessent pushed this view initially...) Tariffs implemented today are just the start of suite of planned levies that would bring US tariffs to above the Smoot-Hawley days in just a few weeks. Even with modest retaliation by trade partners, these policies are shaping up to slice 2% off US real growth >>> mild recession, FED cuts, yields down, usd down (better for manufacturing kick) etc... Trump urged lawmakers to eliminate the Chips Act and said he would not give chipmakers any more funds from the law US fund to take control of Panama Canal ports in victory for Trump BESSENT: “Over the medium term, which is what we’re focused on, it’s a focus on Main Street. Wall Street’s done great, Wall Street can continue to do fine, but we have a focus on small business and consumers. We are going to rebalance the economy.” Short-term pain is their plan Dollar risks losing safe haven status, says Deutsche Bank France eyes taxes on the rich, not companies, to help fund defense Gary Black : Yeah, I voted for Trump but I never thought he’d be so foolish to actually move forward with 25% tariffs given the well-documented history of how the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 triggered the onset of the Great Depression as global trade flows dried up Putin Agrees To Help Trump Broker Nuclear Talks With Iran - BBG Ending the Ukraine War: A Reset in U.S.-Russia Relations? | Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Michael Kofman / great podcast below Trump hails Ukraine’s willingness to sign minerals deal ‘at any time’ Bob Elliott on X: "Tariffs implemented today are just the start of suite of planned levies that would bring US tariffs to above the Smoot-Hawley days in just a few weeks. Even with modest retaliation by trade partners, these policies are shaping up to slice 2% off US real growth. Thread." / X Dollar risks losing safe haven status, says Deutsche Bank China targets 'around 5%' GDP growth in 2025 and lays out stimulus measures Trump could scale back Canada, Mexico tariffs Wednesday, Lutnick says US fund to take control of Panama Canal ports in victory for Trump FX markets: How Trump's policies could influence U.S. dollar price Gold is really the only one... Factbox-Key details of Germany’s proposed fiscal rule changes and infrastructure splurge Peter Berezin on X: "50/50 chance it has already started https://t.co/NB1zTMjwHm " / X Trump's Greenland message: U.S. will control it 'one way or the other' France Eyes Taxes on Rich, Not Companies, to Help Fund Defense - Bloomberg RBA Deputy Gov. Hauser Says Inflation War Not Over; Trade Uncertainty Rising | Morningstar Ending the Ukraine War: A Rese – Hidden Forces – Apple Podcasts INFO LA DÉPÊCHE. Tesla dealership set on fire: 12 cars destroyed, at least 700,000 euros in damage - ladepeche.fr and Tesla electric car sales plunge again in Australia - Model 3 down more than 81 per cent Elon didn't do too well lately A crypto mogul who invested millions into Trump coins is getting a reprieve on civil fraud charges | CNN Business Pure coincidence...! what a great institution this was.. :-) FCA bans former Credit Suisse executives following US criminal convictions | FCA

EU's Von Der Leyen: re-arm Europe could mobilize close to €800b U.S trade policy uncertainty OFF the charts - literally >> so 25% to Canada (who retaliates with tarioffs on $107bn of US products + cut power to 1.2mio US homes) and Mexico starting today, doubles tariffs to China to 20% (who retaliates on soft commodity products)+ a bigly announcement today USD, big picture, most overvalued in a very long time , Trump's action, clearly, as stated many times, what they want is to drag USD LOWER, together with UST yields lower and OIL lower... thus equity markets at risk of a bigger than 5% correction!... watch Mag7 type stuff, uninged, clearly struggling - owned positions... and it's bullish GOLD, Trump and Bessent's favourite asset...), and watch out for 'unintended consequences' in this faster moving markets... Opec+ response : OPEC+ decides to hike oil production for the first time in 2 years As Scott Bessent said… The “real” US economy, the private sector, has been weak under the surface and barely growing for years. The headline economy has simply been sustained by unsustainable fiscal policy Trump says Japan, China cannot keep reducing value of their currencies Nvidia’s unofficial exports to China face scrutiny after arrest of silicon smugglers in Singapore, 'old' but gold story Europe’s major powers consider seizing frozen Russian assets in ceasefire talks, FT reports EU defence plans could mobilise 800 billion euros, von der Leyen says | Reuters Ukraine-Russia war latest: Trump suspends US military aid to Kyiv after explosive White House row with Zelensky Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "This is arguably one of the most important charts that I have seen recently.  The US dollar is currently at one of its most overvalued levels relative to other fiat currencies in over 120 years of data.  Comparable extremes in 1933 and 1985 were ephemeral and preceded https://t.co/iayj0QqRYu " / X Trump Tariffs Usher in New Era of Protectionism China rejects additional U.S. tariffs, vows to take countermeasures Canada Is Ready to Retaliate Against US Tariffs, Foreign Minister Joly Says - Bloomberg Power play: Doug Ford’s electricity shut down threat could leave 1.3 million U.S. homes in the dark - The Hub Trade wars erupt as Trump hits Canada, Mexico, China with steep tariffs | Reuters Trump tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect Tuesday Trump says Japan, China cannot keep reducing value of their currencies | Reuters OPEC+ decides to hike oil production for the first time in 2 years Newspaper headlines: 'US rift with Ukraine grows' and 'UK hunts new allies' - BBC News Europe’s major powers consider seizing frozen Russian assets in ceasefire talks, FT reports Trump and TSMC announce $100 billion plan to build five new US factories | Reuters Altcoin sell-off forcing traders to protect portfolios with puts – The Armchair Trader Total joke yesterday, proper pump and dump to the tune of 250bn $'s worth of coins ! Crypto Whale Profits $6.8 Million Off Trump’s Crypto Reserve News Greenlanders Tell Trump—and Denmark—Island Is ‘Not For Sale’ | TIME Daniel Goldman on X: "Surprise surprise: @ElonMusk hasn't found a cent of waste or fraud in the $13 billion his companies receive from the taxpayer. His company Starlink is now trying to swipe a $2.4bn FAA contract on top of that. Don’t be fooled by claims of “efficiency”: It’s pure corruption. https://t.co/U7eib7Oenf " / X quelle surprise ! Nvidia unofficial exports to China face scrutiny after Singapore arrests