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Markets : Berkshire top as Warren leaves, PLTR's crazy valuations (know what your are buying..), GOLD (up 3-5pct in 2days) is 'sniffing out' something that hasn't surfaced on mainstream markets (or reacting to a possible USD realignement?, TWD, HKD, who's next ?).., Equity markets have had a great rally since latre April, beware! reduce risk looks very wise...if not time for a hedging trade again...looks very reasonable IMHO ! Taiwan dollar rally : a sign of global realignment , HKMA spent record amount of USD to keep HKD within the peg, GOLD move, which USD pair is next ? watch out for cracks appearing is some places, FX has been a forgotten risk out there, for years PF and others have been accumulating USD and remained unhedged..liquidity will never be there when they want to hedge , bring money home/rapatriation now after years of accumulating, when the dam breaks, beware of binary events is various places and dysfunctional markets in some parts going forward ..>>> a REVERSE of 1998 Asian crisis, a higher CNH would be a huge tell ! The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) stood at 3% in March/Thread The Tariff bomb detonates this week / Thread #PLTR : if i read the earnings report correctly..it grows now slower than most average tech company, and it is priced at 25x higher than the average tech Co.. hummm Canada and the European Union agree to deepen free trade ties and economic cooperation Xi Jinping to visit Russia on May 7–10 for WWII Victory Anniversary celebrations Buffet: “The opportunity to deploy cash will come in the next 5 years” Basel III, in July : Gold becomes a Tier One asset for western central bank Saudi Arabia reports first-quarter deficit of US$15.65 billion. Declining oil prices and voluntary production cuts have weighed on Saudi revenue in recent years “We are now going from a predictable trade regime to what is going to be a new equilibrium,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. “The way from here to there, very uncertain.” US, Canadian farmers face soaring fertilizer prices amid Trump trade war The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.3% in April, near the highest EVER Taiwan dollar rally a sign of global trade realignment | Taiwan News | May. 6, 2025 12:28 Taiwan dollar's record rally is a trade-war tremor | Reuters >>> possibly the start of something big, remember FX risk has been all but forgotten for years, big picture PF and others have been accumulating USD for a long time, and keeping most of them, often unhedged... this could start to hurt, as Bessent and Co keep pushing with tariffs (and again don't forget 'fx manipulation' has been mentioned in ALL tariffs chatters, it IS clearly included, various foreign countries will need to accept some form of currency appreciation... Palantir Stock Slides Despite Strong Earnings. That’s the Price of a Sky-High Valuation. Slow growth and crazy valuations...25x higher than your average tech stock.. Global economy already feeling drag from Trump tariffs | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "1/7 “We are now going from a predictable trade regime to what is going to be a new equilibrium,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. “The way from here to there, very uncertain.” https://t.co/XqfxUVzpMZ via @business" / X US, Canadian farmers face soaring fertilizer prices amid Trump trade war | Reuters Milken Crowd Warms Up to Tariffs While Condemning All the Chaos - Scott Bessent walked on stage at the largest gathering in months of Wall Street’s champions of global trade, aiming to explain why President Donald Trump is putting up hurdles to global trade. Fingertips steepled, his eyes panning, the Treasury secretary told a quiet crowd that tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation are “interlocking parts of an engine” to boost America’s clout — emphasizing it’s all thoughtfully designed. He soon paused: “I hope you can see the bigger picture now.” The verdict came swiftly: Investing titans and financial leaders at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills lined up to say they can live with tariffs and a reworking of trade — just get it settled  soon   Saudi Arabia reports first-quarter deficit of US$15.65 billion - The Business Times Brian Krassenstein on X: "WARNING: The Tariff bomb detonates this week: - Trade War Finally will be felt: Tens of billions in new import taxes land on store shelves this week. - Tomorrow 5 million student-loan borrowers back on the hook Trump ended the federal pause. Collection agencies resume https://t.co/DuTjhVkJx5 " / X Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on X: "“President Trump intends to usher in the most prosperous decade in American history—but not at the cost of the spiritual degradation of the working class.” In The Wall Street Journal , I outline @POTUS’s 3 steps to economic growth: https://t.co/axwUOiZf5Q " / X Basel III finalisation in the EU: the key elements and how they make the EU banking system more resilient This Florida Homebuilder And Former State Legislator Is Now A Billionaire Over the weekend,  the neoconservative David Brooks wrote this in an OpEd in the NY Times, "Trumpism… is primarily about the acquisition of power — power for its own sake . It is a multifront assault to make the earth a playground for ruthless men, so of course any institutions that might restrain power must be weakened or destroyed. Trumpism is about ego, appetite and acquisitiveness and is driven by a primal aversion to the higher elements of the human spirit — learning, compassion, scientific wonder, the pursuit of justice. … What is happening now is not normal politics. We’re seeing an assault on the fundamental institutions of our civic life, things we should all swear loyalty to — Democrat, independent or Republican. It’s time for a comprehensive national civic uprising. It’s time for Americans in universities, law, business, nonprofits and the scientific community, and civil servants and beyond to form one coordinated mass movement. Trump is about power. The only way he’s going to be stopped is if he’s confronted by some movement that possesses rival power. … I’m really not a movement guy. I don’t naturally march in demonstrations or attend rallies that I’m not covering as a journalist. But this is what America needs right now." Nick Timiraos on X: "The NY Fed's measure of inflation persistence (the "multivariate core trend" rate) stood at 3% in March. January and February were revised down to 2.9% (prev 3.1 and 3%, respectively). The recent low for this somewhat-revision-prone series was 2.5% in June. https://t.co/lM18LJG7w4 " / X

Week ahead : S&P global PMI, ISM manuf PMI today, FED-FOMC presser Wed , jobless claims Thursday, and about 20% of S&P500 reporting this week, loads of Trump stuff on Truth Social, all getting sillier by the day ! but Trump sending weapons system again after a hard reality check last week, Trump's crypto corruption intensifies as AbuDhabi firm invest $2bn, oh and let's reopen Alcatraz too Markets : Payrolls hep lift sentiment + SPX through 50dma around 5582, both helping last Friday, crude lower again, as Wall Street banks have lowered (again) their forecast for oil prices after OPEC+ hiked output, following the massive eq rally last 3weeks, it 'may' well be a decent year to consider 'sell in may and go away'.. FED : Rate-cut expectations tumbled this week with just 3 cuts now priced in for the year , and June being rapidly removed from consideration Buffett passes the reins after changing investing forever : Warren Buffett’s departure as CEO marks the end of an era—but his influence on how we invest, think, and build wealth will outlast any market cycle Trump Suggests Some Trade Deals May Come as Soon as This Week - “It could very well be,” Trump told reporters on Sunday when asked whether any trade agreements were coming this week. He didn’t specify any countries.. ''' Trump: I don't think a beautiful baby girl that's 11 years old needs to have 30 dolls. I think they can have 3 dolls or four dolls...they don't need to have 250 pencils. They can have 5.''' Oil tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms BUFFETT SAYS THERE COULD BE THINGS THAT WOULD HAPPEN IN US THAT WOULD "MAKE US WANT TO OWN A LOT OF OTHER CURRENCIES" 6 big things investors learned from Warren Buffett at this year's Berkshire shareholder meeting Thank you, Warren Buffett: The end of an era | Saxo Trump's Crypto Corruption Intensifies With $2 Billion Abu Dhabi Deal Oil tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms | Reuters Javier Blas on X: "Wall Street banks have lowered (again) their forecast for oil prices after OPEC+ hiked output. In mid-April, I argued in this @Opinion column that oil was cheap, but not a bargain: "Oil futures can still drop further. What’s cheap could become cheaper." https://t.co/yeFNwKIJ0z " / X What Recession? Stock Investors Expect the Good Times to Continue - WSJ S&P 500 erases all losses since Trump's tariff 'Liberation Day' Not a bad area to re-hedge some, unwind few things bought 2-3weeksa ago Africans need jobs. The rest of the world needs workers MUFG on the Taiwan dollar move a "19-standard-deviation event" | Forexlive Trump announces 100% tariff for movies produced outside U.S. Jeff Bezos to sell Amazon stock worth billions Julius Baer’s CEO Faces a Herculean Task Adam Schiff on X: "Donald Trump's memecoin is the equivalent of posting his Venmo on the internet. Corruption in it's most obvious form. We need accountability. https://t.co/zx0XiLPT1P " / X Israel approves plan to seize all of Gaza and hold it indefinitely, officials say | World News | Sky News

Markets : APPL renews fear about tariffs, P/E 30+.., U.S claims higher - trend? (Thread), Japan UST's a card in trade talks, crude lower again (NOT due to drill-baby-drill, in fact with lower oil prices drilling will stop!! more like collapsing demand it is..) , McD's sales hit a wall in Q1 too, equity look a little ''richly priced from here on, good levels to reduce some risk again, particularly if you managed to buy some 2weeks ago....'' #APPL : still on a P/E of 30+, with declining profits and sales, GOOG is nearly 20% of APPL net earnings..anti trust risk, AND 138% debt to equity ratio !!!!!, why own it ? EU trade chief Sefcovic: Europe ready to make Trump a 50 billion euros offer, FT reports Timiroas : "Implementation of tariffs and their application is sudden and abrupt..." "Tariff whiplash is causing us major issues..." "Paralyzed..." see Thread NYT: UAE pours $2 billion into Trump crypto coins ...and BBG : Trump White House may ease restrictions on selling AI chips to UAE... surely this is pure coincidence "China evaluating trade talks"....is this really new news ? Japan says massive Treasury stockpile among tools for US trade talks Nvidia CEO was just asked about his thoughts on Huawei and China > Huawei is one of the most formidable technology companies in the world /thread interview below #GOOG "included a $8b unrealised gain in its #SpaceX  investment, which equates to an $1.35 EPS approx, Ex this and EPS is $1.4 only, far less than reported $2.8.. Collapse in once-booming Florida real estate hotspot is 'breathtaking' Local election results: How Reform UK is changing British politics Saudi Arabia oil production drops to lowest level in 15 years Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cut -Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the US Treasury market is signaling that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates. -Bessent argues that 10-year Treasury yields have retreated since President Trump took office, and that the drop in 10-year rates is "saving the federal government lots of money" in terms of interest costs. -Bessent predicts that the "aperture" of uncertainty about tariffs will narrow as time goes on and trade deals are done, and advises people to "take a deep breath" in the short term. China is currently evaluating this. China's position has remained consistent: if the U.S. wishes to escalate, China will firmly respond; if it seeks dialogue, China’s door remains open. The tariff and trade war was unilaterally initiated by the U.S. side. If the U.S. wishes to negotiate, it must demonstrate sincerity by taking concrete actions to rectify its wrong practices, including removing unilateral tariffs. We have noticed that recently the U.S. has frequently signaled possible adjustments to tariff measures. China emphasizes that in any possible dialogues or negotiations, failure by the U.S. to correct its unilateral tariff measures would demonstrate a complete lack of sincerity and would further damage mutual trust. Saying one thing but doing another, or even attempting to use negotiations as a cover for coercion and extortion, will not succeed with China. EU trade chief Sefcovic: Europe ready to make Trump a 50 billion euros offer, FT reports Japan says massive Treasury stockpile among tools for US trade talks Bill Ackman on X: "Some have misunderstood my post below, likely due to its length. So let me explain my thoughts in a few words. With the China tariffs in place, time is not our friend as the high tariffs put pressure on American companies — particularly the small ones — and our economy. If the" / X Nick Timiraos on X: "One week doesn't make a trend, but ... Jobless claims (for initial filings for benefits and continuing claims) both picked up in the most recent week in a way that's not normal given seasonal patterns https://t.co/IZLxfbgScJ " / X Nick Timiraos on X: ""Implementation of tariffs and their application is sudden and abrupt..." "Tariff whiplash is causing us major issues..." "Paralyzed..." All of the comments in the release of the April manufacturing PMI are about tariffs. Nothing on credit conditions or borrowing costs. https://t.co/s1zyzBWh08 " / X NIK on X: "🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: Nvidia CEO was just asked about his thoughts on Huawei and China > Huawei is one of the most formidable technology companies in the world. > they are incredible in computing, networking technology and software capabilities > they have all the essential https://t.co/sng1JjByHv " / X Arnaud Bertrand on X: "It's a stretch to position this as "China evaluating trade talks". It's virtually the same wording as since the beginning, with China saying that the US needs to "be prepared to correct its wrongful actions, including unilaterally imposed tariffs" as a condition for the talks." / X Eunice Yoon on X: "#China now officially attempts to find an off-ramp to #tariffs in a way Beijing can save face in eyes of Chinese public. Commerce Ministry posted online “US side has recently taken the initiative to relay messages to China through relevant channels, expressing a desire to engage https://t.co/w7IBpXeYWf " / X Collapse in once-booming Florida real estate hotspot is 'breathtaking' | This is Money Local election results: How Reform UK is changing British politics | Politics News | Sky News Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Q1 Earnings Results: Revenue In Line With Expectations Apple Stock Slips As Tim Cook Says He Expects $900 Million Q2 Tariff Hit

Markets : month-end flows had a big impact...(USD buying and Equity buying, got a further push on big Techs earnings, this morning we got a dovish BoJ (JPY another notch weaker), Meta, Microsoft reports lifted AI-related stocks, US has reached out to China to talk tariffs (China says), TSLA board denied looking for new CEO, APPL and AMZN (more China related so will be interesting to see reaction) FED next week, one would think, risk is they turn a little dovish with growth and inflation softer, maybe a soft NFP tomorrow will nail it ''' seeing a lot of stuff about how imports subtract from GDP. No, imports do not subtract from GDP because whatever goes into imports also goes into consumption, investment, or inventories, reality growth was slowing before the trade war began''' US, Ukraine sign mineral deal after Trump presses Kyiv to pay back US for help in repelling Russia Mark Carney, "The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied to the United States" LA port exec says cargoes are set to drop 35% starting next week as tariffs hit demand Meta CEO, Mark Zuckerberg: "within 12-18 months, most of the code is written by AI" It won’t just be autocomplete. AI agents will set goals, run tests, find problems, and write better code than top engineers EU rejoining process has already begun. Not through campaigns or slogans – but technical deals and unsexy laws/Thread The BoJ halved its economic growth projection to 0.5% for this fiscal year in a sign of heightened caution following the US levies >>> JPY weaker, less of a chance of a hike! Saudi Arabia signals it can live with lower oil prices, sources say Bloomberg tried to bait Nvidia’s Jensen Huang into bashing Huawei. He slapped them with facts instead. “China is not behind… we’re very, very close.” Western propaganda keeps saying Huawei is years behind. Reality just bit back LA port exec says cargoes are set to drop 35% starting next week as tariffs hit demand US has reached out to China to talk tariffs, state media says Saudi Arabia signals it can live with lower oil prices, sources say | Reuters Bank of Japan holds rates steady for second straight meeting as Trump tariffs threaten exports Trump blames Biden for stock market woes amid tariffs, recession fears US, Ukraine sign mineral deal after Trump presses Kyiv to pay back US for help in repelling Russia Yulia Svyrydenko on X: "On behalf of the Government of Ukraine, I signed the Agreement on the Establishment of a United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Together with the United States, we are creating the Fund that will attract global investment into our country. https://t.co/8ryyAMqW83 " / X Friedrich Merz on X: "„Our message will and has to be very clear: If others question the values of national sovereignty and the inviolability of borders, of freedom, and of democracy, we will stand even more strongly for these values.“ (tm) @EPPGroup https://t.co/jCfVwUQhT2 " / X Adam Schiff on X: "Donald Trump's first 100 days have been characterized by the most flagrant corruption imaginable. Today, I want to talk about 10 of the absolute worst examples. (Thread 🧵)" / X Farrukh on X: "Mark Carney, "The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied to the United States" "When you break off or substantially rupture trade relationships with your major trading partners, Canada included - the most important trading partner of the United States" "You end up with https://t.co/xaR8VoubBn " / X UK-EU Sebastian Salek on X: "It’s not obvious yet, but the EU rejoining process has already begun. Not through campaigns or slogans – but technical deals and unsexy laws. 5 signs it’s happening:" / X Tony Blair at war with Ed Miliband over net zero Tesla chair says board not looking for new CEO to replace Musk | Reuters Meta, Microsoft reports lift AI-related stocks | Reuters Meta Q1 earnings report 2025 Microsoft posts Q3 earnings beat, stock soars Tesla board is reportedly floating replacing Elon Musk as CEO | Electrek Huawei Ascend AI 910D processor designed to take on Nvidia's Blackwell and Rubin GPUs Healthcare stocks: No longer a safe space for investors?

Markets : Wild April markets brought great opportunities to add risk into the sell-off.... ! Trump still bashes Powell, touts tariffs at rally marking 100 Days, given levels/recovery last 2weeks in markets, broadly speaking, the "Sell in May and go away" might well be fairly appropriate this year ? SPX500 55-5600 resistance levels tested and USD 'pausing' near key support vs a few pairs, going into month-end flows, crude still on lows, plenty of uncertainty remains though it seems quite clear Trump/Miran/Bessent are keen to avoid a disaster, that all said, they love their tariffs... Top Trump adviser struggled to soothe investors in talks after market tumult. Stephen Miran met hedge funds and big asset managers after tariffs sparked Wall Street turmoil Donald Trump renewed criticism of Jerome Powell, saying he knows ‘much more’ about interest rates than the Fed chair. He also championed his economic policies and tariff regime at a rally to mark his 100th day in office (BBG), The president signed an executive order to ease the impact of his auto tariffs. Earlier Trump told ABC News that China deserved the steep levies imposed and Beijing may find a way to reduce their impact on US consumers Amazon said it won’t display the cost of tariffs on products after the White House blasted the reported plan and  Trump called Jeff Bezos  to complain, backed down pretty quickly!...why? what did Trump offer ? Bonds, long-end rally across board (from oversold and into month-end), and UK 30 year Gilt yields hit 5.19% lowest since 7th april EU pact could scupper Britain’s hopes of free trade deal, US warns Switzerland UBS April investor sentiment -51.6 vs -10.7 prior President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, saying he's "not really doing a good job". “You’re not supposed to criticize the Fed,” Trump said. “You’re supposed to let him do his own thing — but I know much more than he does about interest rates.” ·       Trump wrapped the criticism in a broader defense of his signature economic policies, arguing that his sweeping tariff program would inspire a wave of economic growth and lure manufacturers back to the US.  ·       Trump’s 100-day victory lap comes despite polls showing his approval ratings sinking to the lowest level in decades for presidents at this milestone in their terms.   'We're just getting started': Donald Trump goes on attack in speech at rally to mark 100 days in office Sir Keir Starmer’s EU Brexit reset could sink UK’s hopes of free trade deal, US warns EU youth mobility scheme is essential for a post-Brexit reset The British teens behind Scattered Spider's 'depraved' cyber attacks Growing BRICS group shows internal rifts as ministers fall short of joint statement | Reuters China's factory activity drops to a near two-year low in April as trade tariffs bite German auto giant Volkswagen posts 37% drop in first-quarter profit Super Micro shares dive after server maker issues weak preliminary financials UBS 1Q profit tops expectations on tariff-driven volatility in markets Snap Was Already Struggling. Then Came Trump's Tariffs. - Business Insider ‘Sigh of relief’ as British Steel shipments bring lifeline to industry on the brink

Spain-Portugal power outage live: Electricity returning to homes as cause of huge blackout remains a mystery Markets :  pivotal week for Big Techs, earnings focus, and April jobs report, US auto tariffs relief, USD steadies, Bessent and Lutnick to talk today (again), QRA tomorrow probably important too, China digging in for a fight and Carney talks closer ties to UK and EU Saxo : “This week isn't just another earnings season; it’s a moment of truth for Big Tech, investor confidence, and global markets. Clarity will be your most valuable asset.” Lutnick touts 'deal' to help domestic manufacturers Pakistan defence minister says military incursion by India is imminent Rheinmetall's military sales soared 73% in the first quarter as Europe's increased defense spending drove up orders German consumer sentiment improves in May but still weighed by uncertainty, GfK survey shows European approval for China's C919 plane needs 3-6 years, regulator says Upcoming elections in Singapore, Australia, the Philippines, South Korea and Japan have been cast in a dark shadow by Donald Trump's tariff gambit Spain and Portugal power outage live: State of emergency remains in place as 99% of electricity restored Jut whaoo, phew - seems all coming back online overnight/this early morning Market Quick Take - 29 April 2025 | Saxo Note you can follow Saxo on X and obviously on you Saxo platform Mark Carney's Liberals win Canada election in stunning comeback - as he warns The Liberals looked to be heading for a crushing defeat until Donald Trump started attacking Canada's economy and threatening its sovereignty. Crucial earnings ahead for Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple: big tech's moment of truth | Saxo Bank “This week isn't just another earnings season; it’s a moment of truth for Big Tech, investor confidence, and global markets. Clarity will be your most valuable asset.” April jobs report, Big Tech earnings in focus amid stock market recovery: What to know this week German consumer sentiment improves in May but still weighed by uncertainty, GfK survey shows | Reuters Trump to reduce impact of auto tariffs, commerce secretary says | Reuters Exclusive: Pakistan defence minister says military incursion by India is imminent | Reuters Rheinmetall's first-quarter sales beat expectations, boosted by defence business European approval for China's C919 plane needs 3-6 years, regulator says | Reuters Food inflation rises to its highest level in almost a year

Spain-Portugal power outage live: Electricity returning to homes as cause of huge blackout remains a mystery Markets : pivotal week for Big Techs, earnings focus, and April jobs report, US auto tariffs relief, USD steadies, Bessent and Lutnick to talk today (again), QRA tomorrow probably important too, China digging in for a fight and Carney talks closer ties to UK and EU Saxo : “This week isn't just another earnings season; it’s a moment of truth for Big Tech, investor confidence, and global markets. Clarity will be your most valuable asset.” Lutnick touts 'deal' to help domestic manufacturers Pakistan defence minister says military incursion by India is imminent Rheinmetall's military sales soared 73% in the first quarter as Europe's increased defense spending drove up orders German consumer sentiment improves in May but still weighed by uncertainty, GfK survey shows European approval for China's C919 plane needs 3-6 years, regulator says Upcoming elections in Singapore, Australia, the Philippines, South Korea and Japan have been cast in a dark shadow by Donald Trump's tariff gambit Spain and Portugal power outage live: State of emergency remains in place as 99% of electricity restored Jut whaoo, phew - seems all coming back online overnight/this early morning Market Quick Take - 29 April 2025 | Saxo Note you can follow Saxo on X and obviously on you Saxo platform Mark Carney's Liberals win Canada election in stunning comeback - as he warns The Liberals looked to be heading for a crushing defeat until Donald Trump started attacking Canada's economy and threatening its sovereignty. Crucial earnings ahead for Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple: big tech's moment of truth | Saxo Bank “This week isn't just another earnings season; it’s a moment of truth for Big Tech, investor confidence, and global markets. Clarity will be your most valuable asset.” April jobs report, Big Tech earnings in focus amid stock market recovery: What to know this week German consumer sentiment improves in May but still weighed by uncertainty, GfK survey shows | Reuters Trump to reduce impact of auto tariffs, commerce secretary says | Reuters Exclusive: Pakistan defence minister says military incursion by India is imminent | Reuters Rheinmetall's first-quarter sales beat expectations, boosted by defence business European approval for China's C919 plane needs 3-6 years, regulator says | Reuters Food inflation rises to its highest level in almost a year

Week ahead : Big Techs earnings (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META and more see below), macro (inflation, U.S NFP and quarterly GDP) and most important U.S Treasury refunding on Wed (consensus seems to be for a bond friendly one), Canada goes to the polls today >>> SPX implied move is about 150pts this week, busiest earnings week, 40% of index reporting, USD showing a few signs of 'recovering' from oversold levels Trump tariffs lead to supply chain disruptions at US ports Japan denies report citing Bessent's push for strong yen and Bessent does not back up Trump on China tariff discussions - reuters Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, a billionaire supporter of President Donald Trump and a megadonor to Republican candidates, had some unusually harsh words for the president about his trade war: It’s hurting America’s standing in the world and eroding the nation’s brand Axios : U.S. and China are talking, but China needs a de-escalation, Bessent says More Americans are financing groceries with buy now, pay later loans (41%) — and more are paying those bills late, survey says. Apollo's Torsten Slok : "data from the Fed shows that a record-high share of [US] households are only making the minimum payment on their credit cards." $$$ views : euro based on past performance given the potential regime changes.  It expects further euro strength against the dollar, yen, franc, but prefers to sell the euro against the pound into rallies. and UBS believes as long as the US stands off with China on tariffs, there will be pressure on the US dollar from the capital flow side.  At the same time, there appears to be no obvious solution to solving non-tariff trade barriers with the European Union World central banks are diversifying their reserves: Foreign holdings of Treasuries as % of US government debt have fallen to ~23%, the lowest in 22 years. Saudi Arabia, Qatar to settle Syria’s World Bank debt CHF 2year rates in negative territory again -0.1% >>> didn't think we would see this again TBH Trump tariffs lead to supply chain disruptions at US ports Japan denies report citing Bessent's push for strong yen | Reuters China, US in trade talks but Beijing needs de-escalation — Trump official Bessent Bessent does not back up Trump on China tariff discussions | Reuters Bessent says he doesn't know if Trump has spoken with China’s Xi Week ahead: Tariffs and US data in the spotlight Earnings Calendar & Reports of US Companies — TradingView More Americans are financing groceries with buy now, pay later loans — and more are paying those bills late, survey says Canada set to vote in election overshadowed by Trump’s tariff and annexation threats Ken Griffin: One of Trump’s billionaire supporters has harsh words for the president about his trade war | CNN Business Saudi Arabia, Qatar to settle Syria’s World Bank debt This ‘resumption of shipments’ notice is something Washington should reflect on carefully: Global Times editorial - Global Times Interesting debate on China, who's strong, principles etc Arnaud Bertrand on X: ""Tell me why I am wrong" You're wrong because you assume - probably like Trump - that the Chinese will prioritize profits over national dignity and sovereignty, which is simply not going to happen. Again, Mao, when he declared the establishment of the People's Republic of" / X The Kobeissi Letter on X: "World central banks are diversifying their reserves: Foreign holdings of Treasuries as % of US government debt have fallen to ~23%, the lowest in 22 years. The percentage is down ~11 percentage points over the last 9 years. At the same time, gold holdings as a % of global https://t.co/Z2QLwADTKa " / X Pakistan closure of air space to Indian airlines may not increase costs

Good to see BIG Oil CEO's have the 'courage' to say it... about time...."We don’t have an energy direction right now," Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub said. "We have a lot of great ideas. We have a lot of people wanting to do things. But we need a plan.", and with prices down here, there is NO 'drill baby drill'.. Markets : China considering suspending 125% tariffs on some U.S imports, China Injects Cash to Counter Tariff Impact. China spokesman Guo Jiakun says that Trump’s “blackmail” negotiation tactics will NEVER work with China...Trump clearly in a bind, folded, let's try to talk...Big OIL got the courage to tell him too, see below. Same as with tariffs, Trump wants peace in UKR-RU, but has zero plan really..just wants everyone to stop fighting.. overall SPX500 into resistance zone 55/5600 area, CHF, JPY, GOLD all correcting together (tariffs premium easing), while VIX gets hammered daily, it works its magic again in reverse! USD may well correct from oversold levels, but overall U.S exceptionalism is over, at least while Trump is in there! and questioning Powell, makes the next FED Chair a poisoned chalice! and a big issue for markets long.term There are increasing signs that the US/China Embargo by the US new admin is starting to have real economic consequences , hence Trump had to turn around, as we said, once WMT warns you of empty shelves...best stop before riots! The Fed’s Christopher Waller said he’d support rate cuts if tariffs drive job losses >>> Trump says the Fed chair is a “major loser,” but the bigger loser from his fracas with the Fed could be whomever Trump chooses to succeed Jay Powell next year By bashing the Fed to influence policy, Trump could create a “shadow of suspicion” over his own nominee Europe’s Dangerous Drift Toward China / Thread A long-term weaker dollar coupled with capped yields is exactly the environment the rest of the world needs to begin outperforming US equities / Thread The Swiss National Bank said it posted a Q1 profit of 6.7 billion Swiss francs California now 4th largest economy in the world Tariffs have been cited on more than 90% of S&P calls so far this earnings seaso n. The term “recession” was mentioned on 44% of calls Addressing early concerns of positioning away from US assets, JP Morgan finds little evidence of foreign selling of US equities .  Instead, much of the selling has been driven by equity-focused hedge funds, including CTAs, which have been unwinding elevated long positions held since mid-February Saudi – usually a lender to the world – has now become a borrower, even with oil prices at $80 .This new reality looks set to stay/Thread China to boost yuan with overseas gold storage facilities as it challenges US hegemony Pakistan halts trade and India revokes visas as retaliatory measures ramp up after Kashmir killings Ukraine-Russia war latest: Kyiv must be able to decide terms of peace, Starmer says after Trump rebuke of Putin Bob Elliott on X: "There are increasing signs that the Embargo by the new admin is starting to have real economic consequences. Container bookings have collapsed, ports are seeing reduced activity, trucking is decelerating, and retailers say in a few weeks store shelves will be empty. Thread." / X China considers rolling back 125% tariff on key US imports amid trade war | World News - Business Standard MKT News - Market News for Traders California now 4th largest economy in the world, new data shows - ABC7 Los Angeles America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling The Nation Out From Under Us. Here's A Way To Fix The Problem--And We Need To Do It Now. - November 10, 2003 Buffet in 2023...worth a read-reminder, can't keep pushing growth with MORE debt Trump Is Making the Next Fed Chair’s Job Even Harder - WSJ (1) Velina Tchakarova on X: "‼️Europe’s Dangerous Drift Toward China‼️ As more voices across Europe - particularly in Germany - begin to call for closer ties with China, the rationale often hinges on growing frustrations with the United States. The narrative goes that Europe must hedge its bets in a world" / X China to boost yuan with overseas gold storage facilities as it challenges US hegemony | South China Morning Post Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "The first thing that came to mind as I listened to Bessent discuss the term "trade rebalancing" was the chart below.   The most significant rotation still ahead of us is the rebalancing within the equity markets themselves, in my view.   Often, in trying to correct one https://t.co/LyIhCUqEHK " / X Ziad Daoud on X: "What’s the most important statistic in Saudi right now? My view: the current account slipping into deficit in 2024 Why does it matter? Because Saudi – usually a lender to the world – has now become a borrower, even with oil prices at $80 This new reality looks set to stay 1/5 https://t.co/VOOA4WloUt " / X Norway wealth fund posts $40 billion first-quarter loss on tech weakness Big number, but it's a big fund! still never a nice outcome.. Alphabet delivers powerful Q1 earnings: AI pushes profits higher amid storm clouds | Saxo Pakistan halts trade and India revokes visas as retaliatory measures ramp up after Kashmir killings Robin Wigglesworth on X: "The Treasury market has gotten hooked on often extremely leveraged “relative value” hedge fund trades. That means that the “yippy” behaviour we saw earlier this month is probably going to become more common. https://t.co/TWr6h89UvP https://t.co/0Fc6M2hGSr " / X

Investors should be wary of claims of major breakthroughs on deals or the idea Trump is 'really, definitely' ready to throw in the towel on his tariff agenda If all this gets confirmed and Trump does back down (even if he looses it again), it will be viewed as a pivotal moment—one that, beyond all the rhetoric, signals a fundamental long-term shift in the balance of power between China and the US, marking the end of American economic/financial dominance (SPX500 outperformance vs RoW, Ai, DeepSeek, Boeing, USD, UST's premium, SWIFT even..!..it's looks seriously to have hit the highs ! #branderosion >>> this 'orchestrated chaos' could turn into a nightmare/out of control Markets : SPX500 4800/5000 support vs sell rallies into 5500 area... and equivalent elsewhere , similarly with USD, sell rallies overall European Parliament in ‘final stages’ of talks with China to remove sanctions on lawmakers...‘It has always been the EP’s intention to have sanctions lifted and resume relations with China,’ spokesperson says 37% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, a rating lower than at any point during his first term "Bessent criticized Musk for overpromising and under-delivering budget cuts with DOGE. Musk clapped back by calling Bessent a Soros agent and accusing him of having run a failed hedge fund" - Axios ...... nice happy camp.. China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS 2.0), powered by the digital yuan, reportedly went live across 16 countries in Asia and the Middle East. Financial analyst Eric Yeung shared details of what he describes as the opening salvo in a “bloodless currency war” that could fundamentally challenge dollar hegemony, this IS huge, and you can understand why Bessent & CO were reassuring markets yesterday... >>> For the first time ever, China’s CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) surpassed SWIFT in single-day transaction volume.” Trump's tariffs war : If you think Americans are angry now, just wait another 14 days for shelves to begin being empty in Walmart ( as per WMT CEO yesterday..) Trump’s trade war will hit US prosperity hard, IMF warns According to Scott Bessent China's problem is the Chinese people work too hard and save too much basically... He wants them to be more like Americans and buy stuff they cannot afford on credit.... The reality, China will not take this 'financial adviceee lecture' particularly from america.. EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT IN ‘FINAL STAGES’ OF TALKS WITH CHINA TO REMOVE SANCTIONS - SCMP The European Parliament is in the “final stages” of discussions with Beijing about removing sanctions on its members, smoothing the way for normalised relations with the bloc, according to a spokesperson for the lawmaking body. “Discussions with the Chinese authorities are continuing and in their final stages,” the spokesperson said. European Parliament in ‘final stages’ of talks with China to remove sanctions on lawmakers | South China Morning Post Reminder..This is what he is in it for …making $$$’s… NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's meme coin surged more than 60% on Wednesday after a post announcing "the most EXCLUSIVE INVITATION in the world" promised the top 220 buyers of $TRUMP a private gala dinner with the president on May 22. In addition to the dinner at Trump National Golf Club in Washington, D.C., the top 25 holders would get "an ultra-exclusive private VIP reception with the President" as well as a "Special Tour," according to the announcement…. 🤦🤦 Republicans against Trump on X: "Republican mega-donor Ken Griffin on the damage caused by Trump’s trade war: “The US is more than just a nation. It’s a brand…we’re eroding that brand right now…when you tarnish that brand, it can be a lifetime to repair the damage that has been done” https://t.co/DeOVc7lo6Y " / X This IS SO big, can't stress enough, SWIFT dominance over China’s CIPS 2.0 Launches, Challenges Dollar Dominance Fed's Hammack sees more runway for Fed balance sheet cuts Fed's Hammack floating the idea of the Fed actually selling MBS Boeing CEO: China stopped taking aircraft amid Trump's trade war Trump’s tariffs will hit US prosperity hard, IMF warns | CNN Business Trump says 25% tariff on cars made in Canada could go up | Reuters Trump tariffs live updates: White House considers slashing China tariffs after Trump hints at deescalation 𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦 on X: "🇺🇸🇨🇳 US Wants to Restructure China’s Economy (You read that right.) Treasury Sec. Bessent: “We want to help China shift away from exports… Their model is unsustainable and hurting the world.” Translation? Washington tried to crush China with tariffs. Failed. Now they want to https://t.co/bjE90XROxG " / X Ofwat investigating ‘rip-off’ cost of water firms’ infrastructure works | Water industry | The Guardian Nick Timiraos on X: "The Atlanta Fed's survey of businesses' inflation expectations shows that year-ahead unit cost growth expectations jumped to 2.8% in April from 2.0% in December. https://t.co/T0NDYDnC8C " / X Really American 🇺🇸 on X: "BREAKING: In a stunning moment, economic advisor Robert Wolf BLASTS Trump on Fox News, saying "This is probably the biggest manufactured crisis I've seen with a bunch of unforced errors. The execution of 'liberation day' was pathetic." Incredible. https://t.co/w4I5FWuJZZ " / X

Trump indeed got slapped on the face!, He's successfully negotiated against himself >>> said he had no intention of firing Powell...and that China tariffs wont be 145% this is not realistic, as we said 1week ago, you can put 2000% tariffs, its irrelevant, trade stops, its a trade embargo..Suspect Bessent threatened to resign, high tariffs not sustainable etc... leaving Trump in the mud, would clearly be a disaster (AS markets signalled/priced in bonds, USD etc..), #peaktariffs and relief rally - OK, but trade talks will go on for a while and the #macro US data will remain weak overall >>> THE UST bond market curve is telling Bessent '''hike, and fire Trump if you want long-end UST yields lower...'', UST bond auctions lter on today will be a tell. Equity markets : SPX500 5000 to 5500 range, are there reasons to really get bullish beyond the relief rally ? probably not #macro Europe can still rally overall, Chinese markets too Scott Bessent said the trade war between the US and China was ‘not sustainable’ and the countries would have to de-escalate their dispute. He told investors at a JPM conference (WHY at a JPM conference!!!???? another HUGE insider clearly!!) he expected Washington and Beijing to reach a deal in ‘the very near future’ but other people familiar with the remarks noted that there were no trade talks under way between the two countries (FT) Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion along the current front line as part of an effort to reach a peace deal with US President Trump source said (FT) Yale is selling off stakes in PE investments in the secondary market to deal with funding challenges. Evercore is advising the endowment on its sales If Trump wants rate cuts, he would likely need to replace the Fed’s full board along with Powell China foreign minister : China & EU should shoulder INtl responsibilities, jointly defend multilateral trading system, and jointly build an open world economy Tesla can’t make Optimus robot for US$20,000 without China, humanoid experts say Lotus Technology Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results Scott Bessent says US tariff war with China is not 'sustainable' | AP News Key elements of insider trading, as defined by the SEC: Material, nonpublic information: This is information that could significantly impact an investor's decision to buy or sell a security and is not yet publicly available. Fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence: Insider trading often involves a breach of duty by individuals with access to inside information, such as company officers, directors, or employees. Trading based on the information: The purchase or sale of the security must be made based on the knowledge of the material, nonpublic information. Violation of a duty not to trade: The individual has a duty not to trade on the information, which is breached by the purchase or sale of the security >>>>> CLEARLY MOST OF US WOULD BE FIRED AND EMPRISONED IF WE DID SOMETHING ON THE BACK OF THE BESSENT JPM CHATTER... Trump: Fed Chair Powell won't be fired but should cut interest rates If Trump wants rate cuts, he would likely need to replace the Fed's full board Modi and JD Vance hail ‘significant progress’ in trade negotiations | India | The Guardian Chevron sees no signs that U.S. is close to a recession, CEO says Vladimir Putin offers to halt Ukraine invasion along current front line, FT reports | Reuters Michael Pettis on X: "1/8 This Caixin article summarizes various proposals by Chinese academics on how to respond to Trump's tariffs. Most of these proposals focus on boosting domestic demand, but some involve expanding "free-trade" relationships with other countries, which... https://t.co/MQVXBZLp2A " / X Tesla can’t make Optimus robot for US$20,000 without China, humanoid experts say | South China Morning Post China's export rules delay Tesla's Optimus robot production Tesla CEO Musk says time he spends on DOGE will drop in May Yale considers selling part of private equity portfolio - Yale Daily News China freight ship traffic to busiest U.S. ports sees steep drop Lotus Technology Reports Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results Nomura’s top banker says traders’ ability to go ‘max risk’ is now higher

Markets : Tariffs drama peak ? CEO's chat with Trump yesterday enough to calm game?.. Time for TOP CEO's and TOP GOP governors to come out.. Let's settle back a bit (hopefully) before the U.S markets implode...and try to make some trade deals (take 12-18mos on average to make a trade deal though, btu they 'agree to agree a future agreement'), Powell Drama thrown into the mix over weekend (one would think a grown up telling Trump to stop..), HUGE earnings week coming up. GOLD has more than doubled since we pushed the idea few years back... up nearly 10pct in a week, even for a bull it looks a little overdone in short-term! (still value to be had in miners #GDX). Crude down to 4y lows on tariffs tantrum, clearly NO 'drill baby drill' possible >>> Trump put the country on notice that he will make the Fed a scapegoat for any economic fallout from his trade war (classic blame game preparation) and also delegitimize the institution if it doesn’t cut rates. "It’s tempting to want somebody else to ride to the rescue, or at least have someone else to blame." China pulls back from US private equity investments-FT The dumbest part of all of this is that most of the trade deals that Trump is currently tearing apart are the trade deals that he himself wrote and signed, Japan, Canada, Mexico (President Sheinbaum said y'day Mexico did not reach a final agreement in trade discussions with President Trump), China (all not going a he wants..), and even South Korea saying to Trump Team 'not so fast', negotiations won't be as easy as you think sir, we won't give in so easily! even Thailand said not so fast last night China launches world's first 10G broadband network, delivering 9,834 Mbps download and 1,008 Mbps upload speeds, and Huawei readies new AI chip for mass shipment as China seeks NVIDIA alternatives (hello Huawei, goodbye #NVDA) USD : Important to put some context on the “Dollar is collapsing” stories, the real effective exchange rate is near multi-decade highs, so talking “Collapse” is incorrect, one has to go back 10 or 20+years to realize that, a collapse would be another 20%, FXEMG : EM currencies rally as strategists say rotation away from US to Europe also benefitting some emerging markets (BBG) >>> Japan's Finance Minster Kato and US Treasury Secretary Bessent are arranging a meeting to discuss "forex issues." This comes as the US Dollar just fell to a 52-week low on tariff worries. "Currency manipulation" was the #1 item on President Trump's "non-tariff cheating" list. Walmart, Target and other retailers met with Trump to discuss relief from tarif fs Blackstone's Schwarzman: 'Fast resolution' to Trump trade talks critical so economy stays on 'growth path' (Blackstone is down 40% since Nov highs..) Narendra Modi and JD Vance held trade talks in India. The White House hailed “significant progress” and said the two sides had a roadmap for a possible deal (BBG) Japanese investors sold $20bn in international bonds as Trump’s tariffs took hold early this month according to data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance . Japan holds $1.1tn in US Treasuries across the public and private sectors, the biggest stockpile in the world Airbus pulls back on ‘green’ jet – WSJ The European aerospace giant has suspended plans to deliver flagship zero-emissions commercial aircraft by 2035 Harvard is suing the Trump administration (FT)  IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings : These meetings in Washington will likely be dominated by discussions about Trump's unpredictable tariff policies. Finance ministers and central bank governors will be racing to get face time with the Trump administration, hoping to calm the trade storm Putin says he is open to direct peace talks with Ukraine Saudi Aramco and China's BYD are teaming up in a bid to find the next breakthrough in new energy vehicle technologies Trump: "Nobody has done more for Christianity, no one has done more for religion of all types than me!" ...good grief Meidas_Charise Lee on X: "Thank you Adam Schiff‼️FINALLY SOMEONE SPEAKS THE TRUTH‼️ https://t.co/9D5DXCqVE5 " / X China pulls back from US private equity investments The US, not others, will feel most pain from its economic mistakes America is not the powerhouse it once was The US, not others, will feel most pain from its economic mistakes Japan expands US tariff task force to discuss new bargaining chips - Nikkei Asia Exclusive-Huawei readies new AI chip for mass shipment as China seeks Nvidia alternatives, sources say Tariff Fallout Begins: Major Companies Slash Thousands Of Jobs Citing Rising Trade Tensions Trump's Fed Attacks, Trade War Push World to Sell Off US Assets - Bloomberg Gold surges to record above $3,400 as Trump threatens Fed independence Spencer Hakimian on X: "Let me let you in on a little secret. David Solomon, Ken Griffin, and Paul Singer didn’t all say these massively bearish comments in a room filled with press mistakenly. They do this because they want/need the message to get out and make it all the way to the White House - https://t.co/gGsYyhfuxk " / X Agreed there.. Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump (yesterday on his social media platform) “Preemptive Cuts” in Interest Rates are being called for by many. With Energy Costs way down, food prices (including Biden’s egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other “things” trending down, there is virtually No Inflation. With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW. Europe has already “lowered” seven times. Powell has always been “To Late,” except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected. How did that work out? China is doubling down: China has just announced that they will be pulling back from US private equity investments. Chinese state-backed funds are halting new investments in US PE firms due to government pressure. According to PE executives, funds like China Investment Corporation (CIC) have already begun withdrawing planned commitments. Chinese investors are also avoiding US-linked deals, even when managed by non-US based PE funds. Just 24 hours ago, China warned they would retaliate against countries that cooperate with the US in ways that compromise their interests. It's very clear what's happening here: China is seeking to isolate the US through trade and investment. The US-China trade war just escalated to a new level. Blackstone's Schwarzman: 'Fast resolution' to Trump trade talks critical so economy stays on 'growth path' Google argues DOJ breakup could hurt U.S. economy in battle with China Putin says he is open to direct peace talks with Ukraine | Reuters Migros plans first Swiss 24/7 supermarket - SWI swissinfo.ch Major road disruptions continue after heavy snowfall in parts of Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Michael Dunne on X: "Rare earths are not rare. But the processing of rare earths is owned and controlled by one country - China. China produces 60% of rare earths and processes 90% of them. https://t.co/TA3K4Nbr2G " / X