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- FED Dec still 50bps after FOMC minutes / Claims highest since Aug / USD tumbles / CTA's chasing risk
FOMC Minutes : peak usd, peak inflation, peak 10y yields confirmed), A "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers agreed it would "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of interest rate hikes, the meeting minutes showed. Traders had expected the Fed minutes would affirm officials' softening stance after recent data showed a moderation in economic conditions >>> Powell speaks on 30th Nov - if he is not happy about easier financial conditions, he has an opportunity to say something then BoC Gov Maclem says expects policy rate will need to rise further And the U.S is in contraction Mfg PMI 47.6, Exp. 50.0, Last 50.4 Services PMI 46.1, Exp. 48.0, Last 47, Initial jobless claims hit the highest since mid-August as well.. In Japan, Nov factory activity shrank at quickest pace in 2 years Sunak backs down against BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators Korean CB hikes by only 25bps, growth to slow down sharply in 2023 (they were 1st major CB to hike in Asia in the cycle, another sign-confirmation of peak rates) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant, Apple supplier apologises for ‘technical error’ after violent clashes between workers and police Renault is buying solar power from Voltalia over 15 years in what is France’s biggest renewable corporate power-purchase agreement Markets : SPX500 levels remain the same - see below comment from GS on CTA's activity! The price of Crude Oil is now, let's call if FLAT over 2022.... and energy stocks are up 65pct.. USDollar took a very decent tumble post FOMC minutes (LOW liquidities ahead of Turkey day).. EURUSD 1.0430+ key, USDCHF below 0.9450 area again, USDJPY 139 and below big statement, CABLE 1.2020+ all need to hold to keep USD bears in charge (USDCNH lagging on new covid cases), AUDUSD bullish as long as 0.6675+, and as noted recently the KIWI bird is flying GOLD has room for higher into year-end, tech levels towards 1850$ should be tested, PLAT also interesting, while XAGUSD 22+ would be very interesting for the bulls! Germany bond market sending recession alarm too, 2s/10s yield spread – inverts most in about 30years, now -22bp UST's and rates in general, we looked for and got for #peakrates, meaning higher for longer, not necessarily looking for any cuts in 2023, until, and only until employment and inflation ease quite a bit, we are getting NFP and U.S CPI ahead of next meeting, market remains fixated and cemented on 50bps for next meeting, things could change dramatically though in early 2023, U.S CPI could see some pretty large correction lower Can CTAs help us overshoot? Goldman writes that medium term CTA momentum is back in positive as we are above the 3965 level. They projected "$6b of S&P to buy in flat tape over next 5 trading sessions but that number will grow meaningfully post today’s close". Longer term momentum flips at 4054. They also write: "Another key technical level to keep up on your screens in 200dma of 4062. Would not be surprised if mkt makes a run towards 200dma tomorrow but will be difficult to break through it." Mikael Sarwe on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Core PCE consensus above target the foreseeable future & yet market discounts 125 bp cuts mid-23 to mid-24. Lower yields, weaker USD, higher equities & tighter credit spreads since Fed meeting = fin conditions easier than normal. Are markets forcing Fed back to 75 bp in Dec? https://t.co/0rVU5A1ToF" / Twitter as per above comment, that is what I am referring to, as long as inflation does not come down, market maybe a little ahead of itself and/or you can say that a lot is ALREADY price in for 2023/24 in terms of cuts Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on Twitter: "🇩🇪 German Bond Curve Inverts Most in 30 Years in Growth Warning - Bloomberg *Link: https://t.co/CnC3mom0cm https://t.co/oZ2b4CsSGZ" / Twitter Shares rise, U.S. Treasury yields drop as Fed minutes suggest slower rate hikes (yahoo.com) Half of variable mortgage holders with fixed payments have hit trigger rate: BoC - National | Globalnews.ca Hitting a trigger rate means a mortgage holder is no longer paying down any principal on their loan and is only covering interest — a key point that can prompt the lender to force a homeowner to make additional payments Credit Suisse Craters To Record Low After Revealing Staggering $88 Billion Bank Run | ZeroHedge yeps... Sunak backs down to BoE and ditches call-in power over City regulators (cityam.com) quite right - do not mess with your own CB (or any CB for that matter) South Korean central bank slows rate hikes, sharply downgrades 2023 growth - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) Revealed: Tory peer Michelle Mone secretly received £29m from ‘VIP lane’ PPE firm | Michelle Mone | The Guardian unreal china: China expands lockdowns as COVID-19 cases hit daily record - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com) Foxconn offers $1,400 payout to quell protests at China iPhone plant | Financial Times (ft.com) China expands lockdowns as COVID cases soar to daily record high | World News | Sky News some pretty unreal scenes out there, folks unhappy to be locked down... can you blame them? Voltalia signs a 350 megawatt solar power supply contract with Renault Group to support its energy transition (yahoo.com) have a great day Team PVM
- German PPI ⬇️, JPN infl ⬆️ / Gold / FM survey : USD -ve / Fed speakers, FOMC Minutes key tom eve
Q3 2022 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank #GOLD purchases (thread-chart), China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence. Buying of metal is at its fastest pace since the 1960s Jerome Powell's speech at the Brookings Institute on November 30th seems to have only been announced yesterday. Notably, it is just two days before the Fed's pre-FOMC comms blackout begins. Fed’s Mester wants more progress on #inflation before ending interest rate hikes. Real impact of #Fed hikes likely bigger than what target rate implies, Daly says and finally, "The Fed could move to pause its rate hikes as soon as next month in our view" - Mike Wilson/MS Producer prices in Germany jumped 34.5% in October compared to the same month a year earlier, the country's national statistical office Destatis announced on Monday. The producer inflation rate was down from 45.8% recorded a month earlier...On a monthly basis, the producer price index slid 4.2% in October #peakinflation confirmed Rishi Sunak rules out Swiss-style trade deal with EU, UK's public borrowing rises by less than expected., October's figure of £13.5bn is much less than £22bn forecasts from economists BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan. Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support Fund Managers Are Turning Ever More Pessimistic on the US Dollar. Short dollar positions are at most since July 2021: CFTC data..“The dollar’s exceptionalism premium is receding:” Bromhead China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October, Beijing shuts parks, museums as China's COVID cases rise Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari said whole idea of cryptocurrency is “nonsense” after implosion of FTX revealed industry’s shortcomings: "Not useful 4 payments. No inflation hedge. No scarcity. No taxing authority. Just a tool of speculation & greater fools." Germany says it has enough gas for the next TWO winters - whaoo Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley agree on the direction for stocks next year: they see substantially more downside before equities find a floor and return to where they are now Humans mined 700 million tons of copper over the last 5,000 years. The same 700 million tons will need to be mined over the next 22 years to meet energy transition targets using wind, solar, & electric vehicles A large number of tankers which previously sailed under European Union flags, such as Cyprus’ and Malta’s, are leaving those registers as a result of the sanctions on Russian oil transportation BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue Markets: Crude dropped 3usd on some WSJ story that Saudi Arabia was going to boost output, later denied and back to square one on the day. Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine (thread) USDollar trade and budget deficit and peak rates insight, always tricky, but markets are slowly worried of a weaker $ into 2023, #peakUSDollar with peak UST yields in play..USDCNH holding up, stalling USD downside, USDCHF held/back above that monthly chart/trend support around 0.9400/50 Equity markets rangy in this Thanksgiving week, ARKK related type names struggling on yet more crypto worries and BTC price breaking down. SPX500 3900/20 support vs 4050/85 resistance BTC breaking down <16K, it was 8k in early 2020 before all the covid QE checks, ETH was <$200, not saying it goes there, just to put things in perspective Bond vols continue to slow, MOVE index, peak 10y yields most likely seen around 4.3%, all about FOMC in Dec and beware final signal on 30th Nov from Powell Fed's Mester wants more progress on inflation before ending interest rate hikes (cnbc.com) Future-of-Copper.pdf (ihsmarkit.com) OpenSquareCapital on Twitter: "Excerpts from Goldman's latest report on oil. Lowering Q4 2022 price target to $100/bbl from $110/bbl, largely from uncertainty surrounding China. Fundamentals look fine. #oil #COM #EFT #OOTT https://t.co/ER6tQj8AKT" / Twitter BOJ inflation gauge hits record high as price pressures mount in Japan | Forexlive BlackRock - central banks are causing recessions rather than coming to the rescue | Forexlive China thought to be stockpiling gold to cut greenback dependence - Nikkei Asia There was some huge CB buying in Q3 2022 FTX : was apparently a $32bn company, they never had any board meetings, many of the emplyees were fake, the Bahamas govt was behind the $600 hack, customer funds were used to buy SBG real estate and advisors now saying fraud is far worse than Enron..... tainting the whole crypto world, coins, other exchanges all to possibly be questioned...the story is not over, probably put crypto back into the ice age for many investors.. Op-Ed: Could DCG be the catalyst for max pain in the crypto markets? (cryptoslate.com) ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on Twitter: "The Alameda pitch deck will go down in history right alongside the LTCM brochure. https://t.co/JqdIihj4Ua" / Twitter AndreasStenoLarsen on Twitter: "Q3 was pretty much a record quarter for central bank gold purchases https://t.co/XWNhku5XBI" / Twitter chart What did COP27 achieve? (qz.com) Switzerland and UK sign trade conformity agreement - SWI swissinfo.ch Fund Managers Are Piling On Dollar Shorts on Peak Fed Bets - Bloomberg China trade: another blow for battered consumer exports to US in October | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Fed's Powell to speak on economy on Nov. 30, two days before blackout | Morningstar Tankers are ditching EU flags | eKathimerini.com Nakaso, a contender to lead BOJ, urges removal of emergency support | Reuters Bear Stock Markets Will Last Through 2023, Goldman Sachs Says - Bloomberg Infinity Q founder, once claiming $3 billion assets, pleads guilty to fraud (yahoo.com) Have a great day Team PVM
- SPX500 4'050/4'150 key / Phily Fed weaker / UK budget, as exp / JPN inflation / UKR-RU grain deal
Goldman Sees China Rebound Coming as Covid Policy Fuels Optimism, economy to gain momentum after initial reopening impact passes, sentiment improves since Beijing tweaks Covid, property rules "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This".....“A complete failure of corporate controls”: Read the wildest parts of the new FTX bankruptcy filing - astonishing - what happened to due diligence...Singapore state investor Temasek has written off its $275mn stake in cryptocurrency company FTX, saying its trust in former chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried appeared ‘misplaced’ Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says we should stop thinking that the U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation, US inflation is unacceptably high Fed's Bullard: Even "Dovish" Policy Assumptions Require Further Rate Increases 5 to 5.25% >> he is the über hawk and data dependent, see Phily Fed below.. Is Green Hydrogen the Fuel of the future? Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020) As expected, The UK announced its biggest tax hikes and spending cuts in 10 years. In his autumn statement, chancellor Jeremy Hunt laid out a £55 billion ($66 billion) “belt tightening” plan for the next five years that will seek to lower government debt >>> ''what's not great for folks, may be good for UK markets'', UK gilts and GBP taken this pretty well The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly manufacturing index fell to negative 19.4 in November from negative 8.7 in October, with the gauge of employment showed continued growth in hiring but at its weakest pace since June 2020 Japan's inflation has hit its highest levels in 40 years, with prices jumping up more than three and a half percent in the year to October >>> BoJ still YCC'ing...so maybe the plan is to strengthen the JPY instead.. Markets: The next few HUGE events are on 14th and 15th of Dec, when Fed, SNB, BoE and the ECB will set policy/hike, we will get another NFP and set of US inflation before that, ISM next week be interesting after weak Phily Fed yesterday The 2s10s yield curve hasn’t been this inverted in the last 25 years. The 30-year US mortgage rate moved from 7.08% to 6.61% over the last week, the largest one-week decline (-47 bps) in rates since November 1981 >>> peak worries, peak rates as long as debt remains under control !! like the UK is showing..it will be tough but it's a must The global stock market rally could be about to meet recession reality..is something that you read fair bit about now already in article and research documents, markets reached overbought conditions, momentum slowing as we get into these huge SPX500 technical levels 4'050/4'150 resistance area, 200dma is right in the middle aroun 4'075 and the 100dma is aroiund 3'910 which is exactly where we held yesterday.. USD came back a bit on Bullard comment yesterday but given weaker Phily Fed (employment data..) and if other data comes in softer between now and Dec FOMC, USD likely to come under further pressure again. GBP going just fine, AUDUSD 0.6770 Fibo lev, more around China reopening or not (USDCNH etc). USDCHF popped its head above that big 09450/.9500 area, key are on monthly charts, probably on EURCHF buying mainly.. Markets likely to trade rangy/low vols (bar any new news.) till mid-December and all the CB meetings, macro rates side of things will be awaiting all these mostly priced in hikes Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Collapse in shipping rates continues to look unreal … cost to ship 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by 83% from peak, by far largest drop on record (bringing level to lowest since June 2020) https://t.co/Of6m4uUPrY" / Twitter chart Robin Brooks on Twitter: "Foreign selling in March 2020 triggered a US Treasury market blow-up, destabilizing highly leveraged carry trades hedge funds were doing, similar to the recent UK bond market blow-up. Japan in September sold the large amount of US Treasuries EVER to fund its defense of the Yen... https://t.co/fv3ACyHCqC" / Twitter chart Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "More yield curve inversions happening today. The Fed funds rate is now higher than 30-year yields since the Covid recession. 62% of the entire Treasury curve is now inverted. This only supports our bearish case for US stocks. https://t.co/QM2P6Sz76a" / Twitter chart Frédéric Rochat: «Energy Independence Has Never Been More Relevant» (finews.asia) OK enough talks, actions required, in ALL countries, the 'not in my back yard' must sort of stop, it's too easy to push the problem to someone else, some other country etc Philadelphia Fed factory activity index drops unexpectedly (yahoo.com) Billionaire Ray Dalio: stop thinking U.S. and China are going to erupt in nuclear war | Fortune Fed's Mester cheered by CPI, but says big risks remain on inflation (yahoo.com) Fed's Bullard: Even "dovish" policy assumptions require further rate increases | Reuters Japan's inflation hits 40-year high (yahoo.com) October data also showed a yearly jump in energy costs by over 15%. Food items were 88% more costly than a year before, led by alcoholic drinks Poll reveals public support for Brexit at all-time low | Politics News | Sky News ''let's take back control...'' "This Is Unprecedented": Enron Liquidator Overseeing FTX Bankruptcy Speechless: "I Have Never Seen Anything Like This" | ZeroHedge this will soon be a must watch on Netflix or whatever provider FTX’s new CEO is steering the bankruptcy with experienced help (qz.com) Is Green Hydrogen The Fuel Of The Future? This CEO Is Betting On It (forbes.com) Pompeo dings Trump: GOP needs leader who doesn’t claim ‘victimhood’ | The Hill FDA says lab-grown meat is safe for human consumption (cnbc.com) not going to rush just yet.. Russia-Ukraine grain deal extended in win for food prices | AP News From income tax to pensions: What the Autumn statement means for you (yahoo.com) Have a great day Team PVM
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