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  • Spain PPI +31% / CDX EM! / New covid variant >> Crude, CROSSJPY's,FXEMG down sharply, Bonds rally

    WHO: At this point, implementing travel measures against new COVID-19 variant is being cautioned against Fed to hike rates three times next year - Goldman Sachs (that’s what is/was priced already…) >>> after overnight news, 1st hike from FED now moved from June to Sep 2022.. EMG CDX index hitting highs (chart) UK CBI (chart) Germany’s next government is working on a 2021 supplementary budget to pump more than 50 billion euros into its climate fund which could then be spent over the coming years to speed up the transition towards a green economy, sources said on Thursday >>> New German government faces public spending paradox U.S. President Joe Biden's recent moves to lower energy prices is "undercutting his lofty goals on climate," The Washington Post has analyzed Nordic power prices rise to a record on cold weather and low winds (chart), Poland will temporarily cut taxes on electricity, gas and excise on fuel to help cushion the impact of consumer prices that have jumped to a two-decade high, following French fuel subsidies. More to come? France's leading fishermen union says it will block access to and from three ports as well as the Eurotunnel on Friday to step up pressure on the U.K. over post-Brexit fishing licenses.. Yesterday’s ironic news….ECB union seeks bigger pay hike in face of inflation… Producer price index explodes in Spain with + 31.9% (even if partly transitory..) Markets : Pummeled by the new variant news, fair to say, markets have been priced to perfection, as discussed many times recently, so they didn’t need much of a nudge to weaken fairly sharply in some parts, Oil and oil related names down sharply, reopening names down sharply, Bonds rally, Gold recovers, though fairly unexpected (I would imagine), BTC and crypto lower (positioning?..), now 20% off highs.. WTI down 6pct or so CROSSJPY’s lower again in FXland, risk currencies lower, FXEMG already in trouble with TRY recently took another leg lower, while JPY, CHF and EURO (low yielders doing well), as markets short covers them Equity markets decently lower, worth remembering SPX was 4’250 in early October, see chart, still in the trend higher, but we could correct further… The good news this new variant has been found Very early.. https://twitter.com/business/status/1464037358286913541?s=21 Two cases of the new Covid-19 strain raising alarm in parts of southern Africa have been found in travelers arriving in Hong Kong https://www.gbnews.uk/news/covid-everything-we-know-about-the-new-variant/165123 Covid: Everything we know about the new variant Money markets scale back ECB rate hike bets on coronavirus variant worries http://reut.rs/317y6eW https://www.politico.eu/article/ecb-union-seeks-bigger-pay-hike-in-face-of-inflation/ ECB union seeks bigger pay hike in face of inflation – and the ECB keep saying there is little inflation, it’s temporary still? The union is calling for wages to be indexed to inflation. 😊 hahahha Good grief, please NO .. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1463885539619311616 THREAD on the new variant B.1.1.529 summarising what is known from the excellent South African Ministry of Health meeting earlier today TLDR: So much uncertain but what *is* known is extremely worrying & we should revise red list immediately. https://news.yahoo.com/german-government-faces-public-spending-123004184.html Germany's new government has pledged to spend big on the economy, climate change and social security -- but without raising taxes or taking on more debt, leaving many asking where the money is going to come from. Climate change is a major challenge for the insurance sector. The first six months of 2021 saw the second highest level of insured losses from natural catastrophes in the past decade. We explore these developments in our Financial Stability Review https://ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202111~8b0aebc817.en.html?utm_source=ecb_twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fsr_highlight1#toc33 You just couldn’t make this up.. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/25/hmrc-to-relocate-to-newcastle-office-owned-by-tory-donors-via-tax-haven?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other HMRC to relocate to Newcastle office owned by Tory donors via tax haven. Exclusive: Deal is part of north-east regeneration scheme developed by property tycoons David and Simon Reuben Nordic power prices

  • Weidmann / U.S Q4 GDP >8%.. / BofA SSI / HYG vs SPX / FED minutes 'hawkish' as exp

    FED’s Daly takes off the dovish mask 24 hours after Powell gets re-nominated (and post U.S data yesterday).. SF President Mary Daly says that if jobs market continues to fire on all cylinders, and inflation remains high, she could support accelerated taper. Says wouldn't be surprised by one or two rate hikes next year >>> following yesterday’s strong data, GDP forecasts for Q4 2021 are going to be lifted from the 5.5% area to perhaps as high as 6.5 to 7%....watch this space, in fact MS is already out with a forecast above 8% GDP !... with 6% inflation, they question should be how fast the faster taper, not whether they should faster taper, IMHO, faster taper is done, question is how fast, NFP & U.S CPI coming pre FOMC, add some European energy ‘crisis’ + covid stuff, December unlikely to be quiet (+ lack of liquidity in markets etc) ECB's Weidmann says German growth likely to be much slower than June forecasts and German inflation to peak at near 6% and to fall below 3% at the end of next year..AND Germany is going to spend!.. Scholz: modernising our country doesn't come cheap; we planmassive investments but will maintain debt brake.. IFO economists: Companies were less satisfied with their current business situation, and expectations became more pessimistic. Supply bottlenecks and the fourth wave of the coronavirus are challenging German corp. >>> Ifo expectations would appear to indicate subzeor GDP growth in 2022 (see chart/Nordea) UN crowns nuclear as lowest carbon electricity source Crude…about that release of reserves…it’s small..and ….A large portion of the barrels that will be offered from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve will likely be exported to China and India, traders say JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon: 'I regret and should not have made China comment.' Was trying to emphasize the longevity of our company, what’s wrong with free speech and all that?.. It’s not just Peng Shuai — China is cracking down on MeToo movement Eurostoxx 50 "VIX", V2X, continues moving higher. The index is currently trading at 21, which is implying a lot of stress. Despite the actual moves in the SX5E NOT being overly extreme, vol is pricing the highest "stress" since Sep lows. V2X is discounting much more risk than what we are currently seeing take place. Is volatility the instrument of truth? (chart) Oil giant Shell strikes deal to buy power from 'world's largest offshore wind farm' The ECB may decide to only put its $2.1 trillion pandemic bond-buying program on hold rather than abolish it after new purchases are set to end in March (they really don’t want to upset anyone in markets..) >>> From yesterday’s speech by ECB Board member Fabio Panetta: .”an inappropriate, sharp reduction of purchases would be tantamount to a tightening of the policy stance. Net asset purchases will continue to be an essential ingredient of our monetary policy stance”… Just a thought…What free trade did to blue collar jobs, remote work will do to (many..) white collar jobs…. The Netherlands: Extraordinary press conference scheduled for Friday, where possible new restrictions are being introduced, in CH - Berset finds the situation concerning, but wants to avoid new national-wide measures. Because there is a 'relatively low exposure to intensive care units'. Depending on the situation however, the cantons should independently adopt stricter measures, if necessary. Germany to consider vaccination mandate for some groups. Angela Merkel's attempt to reintroduce German lockdown thwarted by coalition. Morgan Stanley is offering to reimburse its Hong Kong employees as much as $5,100 for quarantine costs. About 92% of U.S. government employees have had at least one shot following President Biden's vaccine mandate. Germany may consider mandates for some groups, Italy is assessing restrictions on unvaccinated people, and France and Denmark are also debating new measures. Vladimir Putin said he's feeling fine after taking an experimental nasal vaccine. DOLLAR TREE has become the DOLLAR-twenty-five-TREE $135 billion.. is the amount of private student debt in the U.S, up nearly 50% since 2014.. Improving sentiment – less than 1ppt from “Sell”, BofA Sell Side Indicator (SSI), as of 10/31/21. Patiently awaiting next update... This indicator is very close to triggering a sell-signal for the first time since late 2007 (chart) Markets : Credit/HYG – not pretty (chart) USD tried another nudge higher yesterday post U.S data, 115.50 JPY, 21.55 MXN, but USDTRY came back from 13+ to 12 area, CABLE sub 1.3350 area on weekly not bullish, AUDUSD chart also intriguing around 0.7200 ! Equity markets came back, SPX 1pct or so off yesterday’s lows, awaiting Thanksgiving data! Look at GAP, Nordstrom yesterday not great..this market doesn’t do things with half measure when a company misses.. WTI steady just under $79, awaiting OPEC+ and digesting reserves release over next few week https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/federal-reserve-releases-minutes-from-its-november-meeting.html Fed members ready to raise interest rates if inflation continues to run high, meeting minutes show https://www.politico.eu/article/future-german-government-to-present-coalition-deal-this-afternoon/ German parties seal coalition deal to make Olaf Scholz chancellor Social Democrats, Greens and liberals set to take over from Merkel. What are some of the policies in the deal? Germany will ideally phase out coal by 2030 and commit to 80% renewable energy Increase rail freight transport by 25% and have at least 15 million electric cars on the roads by 2030 Push for a European air travel surcharge like the one that is already in place in Germany Immigrants able to apply for citizenship after five years and allowed dual citizenship, a potential big change for thousands of ethnic Turks, many of whom remain foreign nationals after decades in Germany Increasing the minimum wage to €12 Plans to legalize the regulated sale of cannabis Build 400,000 new apartments a year to fight a housing crisis, Lower the voting age to 16 Create a points-based immigration system to draw in qualified workers Comments from the Bundesbank leader Weidmann : Growth likely to be significantly slower than Bundesbank June forecasts Growth recovery pushed out PEPP flexibility should not be transferred to other programs ECB should not lock in ultra-easy policy setting for long given inflation uncertainty German inflation to peak at near 6% and to fall below 3% at the end of next year Companies' complains about labor shortages have increased Upside risks for inflation dominate in Germany and Europe U.S. consumer spending surges in October; inflation heats up again http://reut.rs/3nQ2HWU China demands Tencent submit new apps and updates to inspection - Yicai http://reut.rs/3CPcL79 https://twitter.com/i/status/1463480029803909130 Boris Johnson denies breaking his promises on social care. Here he is last year promising that nobody would have to sell their home to pay for care. This week he voted to make some of the poorest households in the country do just that… Shares in Tencent-backed online brokerage Futu tumbled on news that Beijing may heighten cross-border data restrictions. https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-11-25/chinas-robinhood-tries-to-calm-investor-nerves-as-shares-sink-101809809.html?rkey=4jojc%2BU9Dvsngy8ZDEibRfFL%2FE7ci4pKlzEXEpLB01rVSiiI2wuauw%3D%3D&cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59399874 Boris Johnson hits back at critics over social care at stormy PMQs https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/oil-headed-for-100-despite-us-efforts-to-release-reserves-analyst.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar Oil prices are headed for $100 despite U.S. efforts to release reserves, analyst says https://www.cityam.com/un-crowns-nuclear-as-lowest-carbon-electricity-source/ UN crowns nuclear as lowest carbon electricity source https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/shell-to-buy-power-from-worlds-largest-offshore-wind-farm.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1637758394 Oil giant Shell strikes deal to buy power from 'world's largest offshore wind farm' https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/cathie-wood-explains-why-she-bought-a-ton-more-zoom-video-on-the-dip.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_content=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1637758684 Cathie Wood explains why she bought a ton more Zoom Video on the dip https://www.cityam.com/darktrace-says-its-uniquely-positioned-to-lead-the-way-in-cyber-tech-despite-ongoing-controversy/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter Darktrace says its ‘uniquely positioned’ to lead the way in cyber tech despite ongoing controversy >>> market wasn’t convinced yesterday, though this might be worth a look soon again (in this space..) The process of upward forecast revisions by economists has already started The past week’s economic releases, and in particular on retail sales and industrial production in the US and China, are creating upside risk to Q4 GDP growth forecasts, helping improve the overall macro picture into year-end. In fact, the process of upward forecast revisions by economists has already started as shown in the chart. This is especially true for China where policy makers appear to be concerned by recent house price declines in the aftermath of the Evergrande episode and are already signaling easier policies for the property sector to avert a crisis. Chart shows JPM "Global GDP Forecast Revision Index". Have a wonderful Turkey day ! Team PVM

  • RBNZ +25bp / Energy prices higher ag / TRY.. / Crude reserves release, 2 small / Olaf Scholtz it is

    Olaf Scholz is set to become German chancellor after forging an unprecedented alliance that aims to revamp Europe's largest economy HIS Markit : Faster Eurozone economic upturn marred by record inflationary pressures and COVID-19 worries ECB’s Schnabel : inflation risks are skewed to the upside and the other side of the coin, ECB'S Makhlouf: Need To Be Conscious Of The Effects Of Tightening , When Recovery From The Pandemic Remains Highly Uncertain, need To Recognise That There Are Risks To The Inflation Outlook, if Current Trends In Inflation Persist, Case For Policy Action Becomes stronger German parties in talks to form government said to plan announcement at 1400 GMT Oil is "remarkably" cheap relative to other assets, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic says; he says it’s also been like a subsidy from producing nations to consuming ones ECB balance sheet rose another €27.9bn to hit a new fresh record at €8.45 trn, as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling despite rampant inflation….ECB's total assets now equal to 81% of Eurozone's GDP vs Fed's 37.4%, BoE's 41%, BoJ's 134% New Zealand sets date for reopening to tourists after nearly two years…on 30th April 2022.. (RBNZ hiked again by 25bp only though, 40bp was priced though). Covid-19 is now the leading cause of death in Europe, and fatalities will reach 2.2 million by March based on current trends, the WHO warned, calling for more vaccinations. Germany's inoculation drive drew criticism from people waiting for hours in line in the cold to get their shots. France's Prime Minister Jean Castex tested positive, the risk is further lockdowns coming, as unpopular as it will be! Marko: "Powell’s reappointment reduces uncertainty, and hence should be a positive for risk assets. Historically, markets try to test new Fed Chairs, so we believe this outcome will be avoided. Additionally, Powell’s experience from 2H18, where policy tightening contributed to the strong market selloff into year-end, will likely result in a cautious approach to liftoff next year" (Marko Kolanovic) >>> that’s clearly what every eq bull hopes for Biden authorised the release of 50 million barrels of oil over the coming months in a coordinated move with China, India, Japan, South Korea and the UK. It would be the largest release of crude oil from the US’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve, not enough to make a real difference, particularly if OPEC+ reacts the other way.. (releasing 50mio barrels sounds like a lot – it isn’t, the U.S alone consumes 20mio a day..)… Biden blames high gas prices on "oil-producing countries and large companies" because they are not ramping up production "quickly enough" JPMorgan : Expects Brent oil price to avg. $88 in 2022, $82 in 2023, breach $90 sometimes in 3Q22. Global demand to grow by another 3.5 MBPD in 2022 and reach 99.8MBP, which is 280KBD above 2019 levels and a record high. On track to surpass 2019 by March 2022. Canada is well placed to develop a sustainable hydrogen economy as it forges a path to net zero Markets : WTI higher..after few governments agreed to release oil reserves (big picture it’s a drop in the ocean..), Energy could push back to new heights on colder weather, Electrification and urbanisation will drive growth in copper (Saxo article below), Equity markets softer/pausing going into Thanksgiving (note as usual some volatility post OPEX..), SPX 21dma around here for short-term momentum (chart). Past the peak in equity inflow - Equity inflows have been particularly strong in the recovery, but momentum peaked in Q2 in line with activity data. (chart). Re-opening sdectors struggling (chart), beware of possible ‘lack’ of liquidities into Thanksgiving/month-end early next week USD slightly firmer. The TRY crash remains a local problem (hit $13.5 yesterday..), but the move is now so extreme we should start seeing some spill over effects to the general EM space. The set up resembles the 2018 TRY crisis. Note how EM volatility, VXEEM, lagged the initial TRY crash back in 2018, but caught up later (chart) Precious metals got sold fairly hard yesterday, few talks of ‘large one-offs unwinding’ + rates etc Here's how lithium metal batteries could help bring electric planes and cars to the masses. Watch the full video: https://cnb.cx/3yeuuD3 https://apnews.com/article/biden-oil-strategic-reserve-gas-prices-a7e0802b299cd627c7ffdeeb0e50bd2c Fighting gas prices, US to release 50 million barrels of oil https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/equities/electrification-and-urbanisation-will-drive-growth-in-copper-19112021 Electrification and urbanisation will drive growth in copper Electric vehicles don’t emit any carbon dioxide when being driven, but their rechargeable batteries are causing environmental and social concerns of their own. https://wired.trib.al/KAZQUOq https://www.zeit.de/zustimmung?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zeit.de%2Fpolitik%2Fdeutschland%2F2021-11%2Fcorona-impfung-jens-spahn-impfpflicht-vierte-welleJens Spahn kritisiert Unvernunft von Ungeimpften https://canada-next-best-place-to-home.ft.com/hydrogen-the-key-to-canadas-energy-transition?utm_source=TW&utm_medium=sustainability&utm_content=paid&twclid=11463416034787053574 HYDROGEN: THE KEY TO CANADA’S ENERGY TRANSITION https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/nov/24/nasa-launches-dart-mission-to-deflect-asteroid-in-planetary-defence-test?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1637737556 Nasa launches Dart mission to deflect asteroid in planetary defence test Spacecraft heads off on 6.8m-mile journey to crash into moonlet Dimorphos in world-first test to see if asteroids can be diverted from collision with Earth Clearly need more QE in this world… Virtual real estate plot sells for record $2.4 million http://reut.rs/3r1gg89 https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2021/11/mpc-continues-to-reduce-monetary-stimulus RBNZ - The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 0.75 per cent. The Committee agreed it remains appropriate to continue reducing monetary stimulus so as to maintain price stability and support maximum sustainable employment. Invest in cryptocurrencies or blockchain company equities? Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, TRON and Polkadot. Explore the possibilities with VanEck: https://bit.ly/2XZcG2g JP Morgan made ‘’billions’ over the years..!!…out of manipulating precious metals futures and options, and I’m probably generous there… They agreed to pay $60 MILLION in fines…..Not a bad business scheme from their perspective. https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-reserves-japan-idUSKBN2I9074 Japan PM confirms oil reserve release in response to U.S. request https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/faster-eurozone-economic-upturn-marred-by-record-inflationary-pressures-and-covid19-worries-Nov21.html Faster Eurozone economic upturn marred by record inflationary pressures and COVID-19 worries

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  • Personal Trading | Pure Value Metrics AG

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  • Asset Management | Pure Value Metrics AG | Switzerland

    PURE VALUE METRICS A leading Global Value Equity Asset Manager Pure Value Metrics works with a broad selection of clients including, Family Offices / UHNWI, Corporates and Private Investors to offer innovative Asset Management and Trading solutions. ASSET MANAGEMENT Using our unique relative value based Investment Matrix we build investment portfolio's with superior metrics relative to main stream equity indices Discover PERSONAL TRADING ACCOUNT Take advantage of our Market Expertise and Support whilst trading on a choice of industry leading platforms Discover PVM BITs Our daily round-up of Global Macro Market Trends and insightful news topics Brent highest in 3y / German Govt : patience / Bund -21bp, UST 10's 1.47% / Big week in U.S congress FOMC : taper in Nov / FB / CSI300 / EG contagion risk faded / Norges,SNB, BoE / German election next FedEx / EG - end of build build build model / RBA housing / U.S debt ceiling ext / Powell next

  • About | Pure Value Metrics AG

    ABOUT US What We Do We provide an extensive range of Relationship Management support services to our clients based around our two main product offerings in Asset Management and Personal Trading in financial markets. This begins with our Daily PVM "Bits" Macro blog, account opening support, assistance with product execution, where required, under a limited power of attorney, help with the transfer of cash and securities positions, and the provision of a tax return for your assets held via Pure Value Metrics at our Banking partner platforms in your name. ASSET MANAGEMENT Using our unique relative value based Investment Matrix we build investment portfolio's with superior metrics relative to main stream equity indices More SELF TRADING ACCOUNT Using our unique relative value based Investment Matrix we build investment portfolio's with superior metrics relative to main stream equity indices More Who We Are Pure Value Metrics management team consists of three people whom met whilst previously working at Credit Suisse. We have extensive international experience, a range of very complementary skills, combining Macroeconomics, Fund Management, Treasury Operations, Technology and Financial Reporting. This enables us; through extensive use of technology platforms, to provide a very high level of financial products and services to our clients, in a very cost-efficient manner. Stephan Collet Chief Executive Officer Expert in global macro and derivative products Read More Richard-Mark Dodds Chief Investment Officer Detailed knowledge of fund management portfolio construction, accounting and treasury operations management. Read More Richard Appleyard Chief Operating Officer Specialising in technology and financial reporting. Read More What we believe In Corporate Responsibility As a forward-looking Asset Manager, we understand that the world's resources are finite and so we look for opportunities to invest in companies, which use these efficiently. Values Whether it be from our Management and Performance fees on our managed accounts or the execution pricing on our Self Trading platform to a core principle within our investment process; value for our clients is fundamental to our identity. Transparency You're in control; with our partners you have full access to either trade directly or view your account in 'real-time' at anytime. ​ If your account is managed you will able to view our pending orders; so you can see what we are looking to buy, and at what price. Sustainability An ever present reality is global population expansion and the effects that it will have on the environment in which we live. ​ Therefore, it is essential that the companies behind the stocks in which we invest also share our ethical values to provide positive change to global infrastructure.

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