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NFP : USD going into payrolls weak vs most pairs (interesting USDCNH story below, BoJ stays on the hawkish side too - add lower CROSSJPY's in the mix ..), positioning is short USD/long bonds, so watch out if data is stronger (usual rules), and a HUGE risk in SOFR options, basically hedging for 50bps Fed cut in Sep, markets will price within seconds a 50bp cut, if data is well below 100K, watch out for revisions in previous months too 30y UST 3.99% - lowest since Dec 2023 France : Michel Barnier it is … and he will need all of his considerable calm, patience and political skills to form a government and construct a budget that will get through the French Parliament, hepromises respect for 'all political parties' On Monday : Chinese inflation data, APPL event wiht the iPhone 6 and THE first Harris / Trump debate August private payrolls rose by 99,000, smallest gain since 2021 and far below estimates, ADP says, US ISM Services Index Aug: 51.5 (est 51.4; prev 51.4) - Prices Paid: 57.3 (prev 57.0) . The all-important employment index remained in +ve territory at 50.2, only the third reading above 50 YTD, New Orders highest since May BMW will launch its first hydrogen-powered model in 2028 This is big news : China announces that they'll "give all Least Developed Countries (LDCs) having diplomatic relations with China, including 33 countries in Africa, zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines" Politico: "Zelenskyy suffers huge backlash as reshuffle triggers power-grab accusations . A parliamentary majority and martial law mean the Ukrainian president has the right to assemble his government as he sees fit, but the opposition is crying foul." Chinese banks have built a $100 billion short against the US dollar to prop up the yuan — and hedge funds are eager to get in on the trade #USDCNH Interest expense on US Federal debt is now at a record $3 billion PER DAY . This is TRIPLE the amount paid 10 years ago and has DOUBLED in just 2.5 years Germany is considering deporting migrants to Rwanda and using facilities there that were paid for by the UK Gasoline crack spreads signal that the single most important petroleum product market in the world is weakening quickly #crude >> OPEC+ has reached an agreement to pause its planned oil output hike for Oct-Nov, according to a delegate familiar with the talks The United States is close to providing Ukraine with JASSM long-range cruise missiles - US media #Walgreens what not to do in finance : $7. 5bn market cap, not a whole lot of cash, $33bn in debt.. . China’s Banks Build $100 Billion Short on US Dollar to Prop Up Yuan (CNY USD) - Bloomberg Whaoo - At the center of it all are transactions known as FX swaps. These have quietly become a key tool for state-run Chinese banks seeking to prop up the yuan during periods of outsized selling pressure. Fresh jobs data tests how deeply Fed will cut rates ahead of government payroll report ( yahoo.com ) OPEC+ Delays Oil Output Hike, Kicking the Can Down a Very Uphill Road - Bloomberg The future of Wealth Management: Navigating Technology and Maximizing Operational Efficiency | Saxo ( home.saxo ) register if interested - The future of Wealth Management: Navigating Technology and Maximizing Operational Efficiency Saxo invites you to an exclusive live event on Thursday, 12 September at 18:00, in collaboration with The Good Guys Company Oliver Rakau on X: "Yes, Germany's July IP report was horrendous, raises odds of a renewed GDP contraction in Q3, and will kindle recession talks. But the 2.4% m/m drop was heavily driven by the car sector's 8% plunge, where a strong bounce looks likely in August. https://t.co/bsvLByPfXD " / X A big Fed rate cut this month could be very dangerous, economist warns ( cnbc.com ) Toyota and BMW are joining forces to push through the hydrogen fuel cell headwinds ( msn.com ) Putin says Russia's favourite to win US election was Biden, now it's Harris - SWI swissinfo.ch Apparently.. Ukraine-Russia war: Zelensky’s latest cabinet reshuffle seeks to project strength ahead of a tough winter | The Independent US close to agreeing on long-range missiles for Ukraine; delivery to take months - SWI swissinfo.ch Michel Barnier named by Macron as new French PM - BBC News Three former Wirecard executives found personally liable for €140mn ( ft.com ) Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a Community with a Shared Future_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China ( fmprc.gov.cn ) U.S. rolls out new chip-related export controls as China makes industry advances ( cnbc.com ) Racism, misogyny, lies: how did X become so full of hatred? And is it ethical to keep using it? | X | The Guardian Hunter Biden enters surprise guilty plea to avoid tax trial ( telegraph.co.uk ) Qualcomm may be planning to buy ‘these parts’ of Intel’s chip design business ( msn.com ) USD is weak(er) overall, showing a few signs of breaking down vs a few pairs, add soft CROSSJPY's too in the mix still..

A lot being written about whether the Ai bubble is about to come off the rails >>> so you been asking : IMHO, no-one can deny we've had bubbly markets last 6months! play accordingly, beware weak seasonal factors + U.S election + momentum clearly switched/challenged on Ai stocks, crypto, EV, on the back of weaker global growth (OIL, China, commods and USD, 2speed economy etc) >>>> could FED surprise and shock with 50bp in Sep ? quite possibly if NFP comes in well below 100K say Crude : see below, big picture crazy plan from MBS since 2022, was played by the U.S and larger producers, the likes of Citi now sees $60 levels , though could go anywhere is Saudis go for shock therapy.. (Crude been weak for a while, China & Global slowdown, geopolitics have had little or no impact) Two-thirds of Fed districts report flat or declining activity, Beige Book says Markets : if you had a good run YTD, time to play defense !, FX , continue to sell CROSSJPY's, USDollar a sell vs JPY as BoJ talks hawkish, but USD probably stays bid vs others, carry trade unwind #stage2 ? US job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021 , with available positions falling to 7.67 million from 7.91 million the prior month. The figure was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists GS - "Our preferred near-term long is gold . It remains our preferred hedge against geopolitical + financial risks, with added support from imminent Fed rate cuts and ongoing EM CB buying," A Kamala Harris win and a Democratic sweep would give the biggest boost to the economy, Goldman Sachs says >>> Harris' middle-class tax credits would outweigh the decreased investment driven by higher corporate taxes, also in FT- Harris proposes 28& top capital gains tax in softening of Joe Biden's plan China Weighs Cutting Mortgage Rates:  on as much as $5.3 trillion of mortgages in two steps to lower borrowing costs for millions of families while mitigating the profit squeeze on its banking system MS “.. Tesla continues to surrender EV share coming to 14% globally , vs. 20% share in June and 17% share on a YTD basis.” [Jonas] Volvo Cars abandons 2030 EV-only target Fed's Daly says rate cuts needed to keep labor market healthy | Reuters Two-thirds of Fed districts report flat or declining activity, Beige Book says ( msn.com ) Goldman Sachs sees economic boost in Kamala Harris election win ( qz.com ) Investors should 'go for gold' as Fed rate cut looms, Goldman says ( yahoo.com ) Nvidia's record $279 billion loss in market value highlights fears of AI bubble collapse | TechSpot Nvidia Rout Has Traders Watching $100-Share Level Amid ‘Vacuum’ ( yahoo.com ) Technical analysis EuroStoxx50 DAX reversal indications | Saxo ( home.saxo ) China may cut rates on US$5.3tn mortgages | The Standard BOJ to Keep Raising Interest Rates If Price Data Allow, Board Member Says - Bloomberg The GOP Is Better Off With Kamala Harris in the White House - POLITICO Goldman Sachs sees biggest boost to US economy from Harris win | Reuters China's Xi pledges over $50 billion in financial aid to Africa to deepen ties ( cnbc.com ) Jesse Felder on X: ""The commodity secular bull market in the 2020s (11% annualized returns) just getting started as debt, deficits, demographics, reverse-globalization, AI & net zero policies all inflationary." https://t.co/UtQT6zio0u via @dailychartbook https://t.co/ZI1jxBwtXH " / X >>>> difficult to navigate short-term, ie next 3-6mos, but couldn't agree more, add exposure on dips Javier Blas on X: "OPEC+ faces a quagmire: It can delay its 4Q output hike to defend prices >$75. But that doesn't resolve the big S/D 1H 2025 surplus. If OPEC+ wants to defend prices then, it would need to cut output , rather than delay hikes. Simply, the oil price Saudis want is too high." / X and Javier Blas on X: "Some statistics: Saudi oil production is today lower than 20 years ago. Oil prices, adjusted by inflation, are the same as in 2004. Saudi population has increased >50% in the last 20 years. #OOTT #SaudiArabia" / X looks like crude market could be drowning in oil over next 2years..! Volvo Cars abandons 2030 EV-only target | Reuters Crude

Softer crude prices again, YTD lows, and with global inventories at their lowest levels, demand must be weak! global growth concerns on the increase, weaker ISM Lack of market concern for geopolitics is astounding, Lybia, Russia-UKR, China-Taiwan, Israel, Turkey BRUICS, Iran attacks, red sea chaos etc VIX swings and NVDA leading overall markets 'sentiment-momentum', still/again chart here : United States Stock Market Index (USVIX) - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart ( tradingeconomics.com ) "More of our customers are resorting to credit cards for basic household needs and approximately 30% have at least one credit card that has reached its limit . See our latest survey, 25% of our customers surveyed noted they anticipated missing a bill payment in the next six months." - Dollar General, CEO August 29, 2024 China’s industrial strategy on ‘collision course’ with top German export industries >>> worrying, china overcapacity stats are huge , even anti dumping measures may not be enough!, more EU tariffs likely coming in October >> See G Magnus below Ueda reiterates that BOJ will lift rates if outlook realised >>> looks like top in USDJPY is nearer to 147-149JPY now then >>> The BOJ will face a new wave of inflationary pressures, Tankan survey showing inflation rate in Japan could rise to near 4% over the next 12mos Swiss inflation undershot expectations again, down to 1.1% in Aug. The SNB cut in Sep is baked in, question is do they do more than expected #DAX Germany's Stock Market hit record high despite the economy shrinking during the last quarter , peaked again at the end of August The latest data from the Treasury shows that the US government now pays out on average $3 billion in interest expenses per day, including weekends MORGAN STANLEY: “.. The S&P 500 appears to be trading out of sync with other markets; the next labor report may determine which is right ..” Nomura says Trump, if elected, would restart inflation and damage the economy: "We would expect inflation in 2025 to be notably higher by 0.75pp, a larger fiscal deficit, fewer fed rate cuts and slightly weaker growth." Goldman Sachs expects central banks will keep fleeing towards gold due to ‘fear for financial sanctions and US sovereign debt’ #XAUUSD The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 (in contraction) for 21 out of the last 22 months . With data going back to 1948, that's only happened one other time: 1989-91 (Recession in 1990-91) This is the set-up as we start September, 2months to go to the U.S election, no need to add to risk here, stay cool, wait for better levels to re-enter, sell rallies. - Crude is on YTD lows, when everyone has been bullish, feels like recession and/or Trump win (lot more supply coming) but IMHO, key is global growth concerns — particularly following this week’s Chinese and US manufacturing data, NatGas falling  as if no-one needs it, Copper prices  trade 'recession' like - Bond prices falling a little as if inflation will come back - Gold is off its highs, Silver a little more, as if all these rate cuts been cancelled - Stocks topped out again, NVDA - feels a little a pretty wonky set-up ('''descelarating rate of earnigns grwoth'' last week's earnings, eventually got noticed - BTC struggling too, risk appetite seems to have gone >>> BTC just another liquidity driven risk on play - EV priced ''plunging'' - China 'oversupply war' with EU and U.S.. Chinese markets breaking down through worrying levels - Credit card defaults from small lenders hit RECORD high s. Comments from Dollar General CEO say it all - consumers tapped out (2speed economy in mind..) - Plenty of geopolitics across world, and French, German politics getting very complicated - 2weeks away from first FED cut - 200bps priced in and possibly a BoJ hiking in Dec - Carry trade will be challenged again Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown ( cnbc.com ) Nvidia Stocks Loses $280 Billion In MCap: Why the Chipmaker Saw its Worst Single Day Fall ( outlookbusiness.com ) Nvidia is flashing a sell signal and its huge rally marks the peak of a 40-year market cycle, veteran strategist says ( aol.com ) Asian chip stocks fall after Nvidia sell-off on Wall Street overnight ( cnbc.com ) China’s industrial strategy on ‘collision course’ with top German export industries – Euractiv George Magnus on X: "This is 1 scary chart if you're a Chinese economic policy maker (ie, Xi). You/he should be having a panic attack. Does he/do they care? Weakest broad monetary growth and collapsing M1 are pointing to slumping money GDP growth, and persistent deflationary pressures. 1/3 https://t.co/dlbXS68t5A " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "The fact that #crudeoil trades lower despite a sizeable Libyan supply disruption highlights a very weak market sentiment that increasingly carries the risk of Brent tumbling through key support in the USD 75 area https://t.co/KH3mVGkrHl " / X Ueda reiterates that BOJ will lift rates if outlook realised ( businesstimes.com.sg ) Intel's Dow status under threat as struggling chipmaker's shares plunge ( msn.com ) Bitcoin price won't hit $100,000 this year, experts say ( qz.com ) Trump Media stock falls to new post-merger lows ( qz.com ) Investors flock to venture capital trusts amid fears of looming tax hikes | This is Money French finance ministry's deficit warning adds to Macron's political headache - SWI swissinfo.ch

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