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- Welcome to the moon! / EU, U.S new RU sanctions / FED in no hurry, ugly 30y tips / JPM : Mag 7 decoupling / UST 10's 4.35% again / #EURCHF, CROSSJPY's, #USDJPY ⬆️
Intuitive Machines’ Nova-C cargo lander, named “Odysseus” after the mythological Greek hero, is the first U.S. spacecraft to soft land on the lunar surface since 1972 New 'NVDA' highs across the board, JPM trading desk (not Kalonovic..) ..“NVDA, may be a catalyst not only for the Street to get materially more bullish on US Equities but also to see a further decoupling of stocks and yields since the Mag7 are proving to deliver on earnings expectations irrespective of the interest rate environment.”, and we even have CHINA who has prepared the ground for a comeback. EURCHF - it's beginning to look like a break up - chart (GBPCHF 1.1250 initially and 1.15+ should get it going) Fed’s Cook wants ‘greater confidence’ inflation is slowing before backing interest-rate cuts. Fed's Waller wants more evidence inflation is cooling before cutting interest rates >>> GS push back their view on when the Fed will begin cutting interest rates to June Ugly 30y TIPS auction, it tailed by 2.5bp despite paying 2.2%, the highest auction yield since 2010! investors want some inflation protection but only at a fair price ECB Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates Before Fed, Holzmann Says - ECB's Schnabel: Monetary policy has had a weaker impact on dampening services demand Carmakers have begun compensating leasing companies for the sliding value of used electric cars as Tesla’s price cuts rip through an industry that must sell more EVs or face hefty fines EU agrees new sanctions and US to impose 500 new sanctions on Russia Saxo . Uranium mining industry correction phase / Thread below French President Emmanuel Macron has invited European leaders to Paris next week to discuss proposals to help war-ravaged Ukraine. Poland's foreign minister warns that the US must help Ukraine or face `profound consequences' Markets : enjoying the NVDA effect!, yields higher overall (10's 4.35%) , pushing CROSSJPY's firmer/breaking up, USDJPY on the brink of major break up ? Very long-term charts required.. (here Japanese Yen - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - News (tradingeconomics.com) Intuitive Machines Odysseus lands on moon in historic NASA mission (cnbc.com) Animal Spirits: Passive is Eating the Market - The Irrelevant Investor Fed’s Cook wants ‘greater confidence’ inflation is slowing before backing interest-rate cuts (msn.com) Fed's Waller wants more evidence inflation is cooling before cutting interest rates (msn.com) TREASURIES-US yields mostly up as data keeps Fed on track to delay rate cuts (yahoo.com) Harker said Fed rate cuts are 'near' while Jefferson predicts 'later this year' (yahoo.com) Ole S Hansen on X: "The #uranium mining industry is going through a correction phase with #U308 back below $100/t. #Cameco holding key support around 55, but yesterday's slump below 29.75 in the Sprotts Phys Trust lifted the discount to NAV to 12.5%, highest since last July and may signal more pain… https://t.co/WYR3IAZEWX" / X (twitter.com) Houthis to step up Red Sea strikes, use 'submarine weapons', leader says | Reuters US to impose 500 new sanctions on Russia and its war machine (msn.com) EU agrees on new sanctions against Russia | CTV News Macron calls for European talks on Kyiv aid; US to impose fresh sanctions on Iran (msn.com) Michael Pettis on X: "1/9 Good piece by Soumaya Keynes on what trade may look like under a Trump administration (and probably under another Biden administration). She mentions the 10% tariff that Robert Lighthizer has proposed, pointing out that Lighthizer "has... https://t.co/w4djzccPJF via @ft" / X (twitter.com) Anglo American | Full Year Results 2023 – Looking to the future (youtube.com) Delta Air Lines x Neste - Working Toward Making Flying More Sustainable (youtube.com) Copper story heats up for Great Western Mining (thearmchairtrader.com) Rivian and Lucid shares plunge after weak EV earnings reports (cnbc.com) Google Pauses Gemini AI People Image Generation After 'Woke' Complaints (businessinsider.com) what a world we live in! China urgently needs to issue ‘most effective’ cash coupons to boost insufficient consumption, economist says | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) Slumping EV prices force carmakers to repay leasing firms (irishexaminer.com) good news for would be buyers of 2nd hand EV's though! EURCHF
- Further policy reversals : China / JPN eco revision softer, JPY ⬇️ & NIKKEI #AUDJPY⬆️ / #SHCOMP #HANG-SENG turning ⬆️ #NVDA smashed it
Fed Minutes : high for longer kind of message AND minutes suggest QT is going to continue longer than expected, ie possibly well into 2025.... NVDA 'smashed it', rebounds sharply after hours (10pct or so down previous couple of days, and right back up after earnings as per implieds), weak JPN data weakens JPY further pushing Nikkei higher to new highs again. Nestle softer sales, MSFT to turn to Intel, Rivian weaker outlook Maybe monetary policy isn’t all that tight,’ former NY Fed's Bill Dudley says Fed’s Barkin says Inflation data show persistent price pressures Fed's Bowman: The time for lower rates is certainly not now Long-end UST's : ''If not for our experience of the aftermath of the financial crisis, I don't think too many would think current long-term rates are a GREAT buy here. Breakevens are still too low and real rates are clearly not hurting the economy. For now, going long should just be a trade'' The ECB announced that it will take a decision in March on the very important issue regarding the future operational framework to use a policy rate to influence the interbank overnight rate. The decision is also linked to the issue of the future size of the balance sheet/Thread JPMorgan’s Kolanovic doubles down on bearish stance, says a ‘second inflation wave’ could take hold China tightens grip on stocks with net sale ban at Open/Close. CSRC bans net selling by major firms in first, last 30 minutes. Regulator is creating a task force to track short selling and another reversal of policy, 2year ago they arrested Jack Ma and now : 'China accelerates drafting of law on private economy promotion'... Japan downgrades view on economy on consumer struggles >> sign that JPY can continue to stay soft/weaken further on higher UST yields Cerrado: Beef trade risks key Brazil ecosystem - campaigners Microsoft is turning to Intel — not Nvidia — to make more chips French Manufacturing Confidence Feb: 100 (est 99; prev 99) Markets : weaker JPY theme continues, NVDA lifts everything back, NIKKEI new highs, even SHCOMP and Hang Seng showing promising signs technically, and if you think China and global growth can recover (no landing, yet anyway), then this should be of interest Fed balance-sheet talks to guide 'eventual decision' on runoff. Most officials noted risks of cutting too quickly, some officials saw risk inflation progress could stall - full text https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240131.htm holding high for longer kind of a message/risk Vitor Constâncio on X: "The ECB announced that it will take a decision in March on the very important issue regarding the future operational framework to use a policy rate to influence the interbank overnight rate. The decision is also linked to the issue of the future size of the balance sheet. 1/11" / X (twitter.com) In February 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has rebounded and is back to its average - Informations rapides - 40 | Insee Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 21 February 2024 | Saxo Group (home.saxo) ‘Maybe monetary policy isn’t all that tight,’ Bill Dudley says - MarketWatch Fed’s Thomas Barkin Says Inflation Data Show Persistent Price Pressures - Bloomberg Nvidia earnings send stock higher as AI chip demand continues (qz.com) - Data centers worldwide by country 2023 | Statista >>> BofAML raised targets to ..$925 Nestlé axes classic Breakaway bar after 54 years (msn.com) Stellantis to start electric van production at UK Luton plant in 2025 | Reuters Microsoft turns to Intel, not Nvidia, to make new chip (qz.com) Japan Downgrades Economic View For First Time in Three Months (yahoo.com) 7 Trump losses in a row, and counting (yahoo.com) Biden to forgive $1.2 billion in student debt for 150,000 borrowers (cnbc.com) Ford dodges UAW strike at at Kentucky plant (qz.com) China Tightens Grip on Stocks With Net Sale Ban at Open, Close - Bloomberg Brrrrrrr -52C on Sunday ! Gallery: Blizzard Engulfs Northwest China - Caixin Global Budget Speech 2024: South Africa boosts taxes and social spending before vote (thesouthafrican.com) Cerrado: Beef trade risks key Brazil ecosystem - campaigners - BBC News Post Office chairman was told to delay compensation in election run-up, memo suggests | Post Office Horizon scandal | The Guardian What a messy affair ! just the or certainly one of the biggest cover up by politicians, meanwhile poor folks who had done nothing wrong continue to suffer, not just financially! complete utter disagrace Postfinance and Crypto Bank Sygnum Want to Attract an Audience of Millions (finews.asia) AUDJPY Hang Seng
- USDMYR 26y highs / Lithium / Bezos sells a lot of #AMZN, #SMCI #NVDA #PANW / #SHCOMP back to 3K
All ears and eyes on FOMC minutes first, then #NVDA after the bell, #SMCI off 30% of Friday highs.. few crazy moves out there. (up and now down). #Palo Alto weaker guidance last night, Jeff #Bezos needed a bit of cash, sold another $2.37bn of AMZN shares, for a total of $8.4bn in 10days, and SHCOMP rallies for 6th trading day, back at 3K ! #contrariantrade #USDMYR at highest level since 1998 EMG crisis, where were you during the wild Oct 1998 ? London Capital & Finance ran ‘Ponzi’ scheme, court told. Sums raised by investment firm allegedly spent on earrings, horses and shotguns Relatively heavy UST coupon issuance over the next week The price of Lithium is down 80% from its peak in 2021 - prices have normalized, good news Elon Musk says Neuralink's first human patient can move a computer mouse with their mind Israel's war against Hamas is hitting its economy even harder than expected Asset Managers have built the largest S&P 500 futures position in history according to data from CFTC Massive spending cuts have left the French government struggling to put together funding for a package of as much as €3 billion in military aid to Ukraine Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don't rule it out UK listings : biggest message from JDcom buying/moving for Currys >>>> buy when it's cheap, and there are a lot of cheap companies in the UK, too cheap -Markets : bit of profit taking in NVDA ahead of earnings!, similarly few USD longs took profit ahead of FOMC, with higher yields overall pushing CROSSJPY's higher, pretty wild correction/down moves in the hottest stocks/sector/Ai related YTD, big picture now is risk fairly well balanced going into FOMC, clearly though, if any further signs of a 'high for longer' scenario comes out, it will give further excuse for markets to keep bond under pressure (supply) and trigger further unwind of QQQ longs All eyes on Nvidia earnings as AI boom reaches historic proportions | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) Yahoo Finance on X: "How $NVDA went from $0 to $1 trillion in 60 seconds. 📈 https://t.co/ucWE9k1dfz" / X (twitter.com) CEO says Palo Alto Networks didn't lower its guidance due to lack of demand: 'There is no cybersecurity abyss' (msn.com) >>> shares down 20% after hours, lower guidance, things may be booming but things got overdone Amazon founder Bezos sells $8.5bn worth of shares (msn.com) Exclusive-Occidental explores $20 billion-plus sale of Western Midstream, sources say (yahoo.com) It's suddenly a great time to buy an EV (yahoo.com) good news ...finally the pricing looks better! and lithium is related Albemarle says lithium prices are unsustainably low - MINING.COM Currys’ largest shareholder warns Elliott offer ‘highlights London equity market drain to US’ (msn.com) Gold at $3,000 and oil at $100 by 2025? Citi analysts don't rule it out (msn.com) Relatively heavy UST coupon issuance over the next week: Corporate Debt Sales to Top $50 Billion This Week on Deal Surge (yahoo.com) $13B 20y 21st Feb $10B 30y TIPs 22nd Feb $60B 2y 26th Feb $60B 5y 26th Feb $41B 7y 27th Feb Israel economy shrinks amid war against Hamas in Gaza (qz.com) Neuralink's first human implant patient is a success, says Musk (qz.com) London Capital & Finance ran ‘Ponzi’ scheme, court told (ft.com) Stephen Robins KC, representing the claimants, argued in written submissions that LCF had been “a Ponzi scheme from the outset” as it used “new investors’ monies to pay returns to existing investors”. Better news though ! UK banks largest monthly surplus on record before Spring Budget (cityam.com) The government recorded its largest monthly surplus since records began in January, helping borrowing in the year-to-date come in over £9bn below official forecasts #Brexit benefits ! https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-68342491 Middle England is being taxed into submission. No wonder it’s furious (telegraph.co.uk) European Parliament's Pension Deficit Problem Prompts MEP Lawsuit - Bloomberg good read Ringgit’s Fall to 26-Year Low Sparks Central Bank Verbal Reply (yahoo.com) Iron Ore Battered to Three-Month Low as China Concerns Escalate - Bloomberg #NVDA all got overdone - 550-600$ anyone ?
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ASSET MANAGEMENT Pure Value Metrics has defined unique logic in our approach to Asset Management, combining multiple factors in our search to provide long term value for our Clients. We currently have two different Portfolio offerings; firstly our classical unleveraged Long only Global Equity model (suitable for all investors), and an Equity & Precious Metals Long Short model, designed to generate double alpha (suitable for Professional and Institutional clients only). PVM Global Equity Long A Global Equity strategy focusing on quality and suitable for all investors from Retail to Institutional More PVM Global Value Opportunities Long/Short A Comprehensive Long-Short Strategy for Professional Investors More How to Invest with us Presently we only offer discretionary managed accounts with a starting Capital greater than 500k CHF (or equivalent). If you would like to invest with us, express an interest in our listed offering, or for any other questions, please either use the contact button below or write to us directly at email@example.com Our Investment Philosophy Investment Matrix Fundamental Design In 2015 we developed our dynamic Investment Matrix consisting of six fundamental variables, designed to identify value opportunities within Global Equities. Our Investment Matrix is constructed to identify and establish sustainable value. There are many reasons why that value may also not be sustainable, such as changing consumer requirements or spending more on share buybacks than current cashflow permits, the PVM Investment Matrix reacts to these changes. Algorithmic Processes Systematic Throughout We utilize daily proprietary algorithmic screening, with a high degree of automation to analyze the global equity universe, monitor our Clients' Portfolios, and identify new opportunities. Furthermore, we use algorithmic execution when buying and selling our clients' portfolios, where appropriate. Qualitative Rationale Deeper Understanding Driven by deep analysis of balance sheets and employing further levels of qualitative analysis, results in a thorough understanding of the companies we invest in. We consider factors, such as; the mix of Goodwill and Intangibles to Net Equity, tracking deviations from recognized Accounting Standards and taking a broader view of the global economic landscape. Robust Returns, less Risk Better Together The combination of quantitative systematic analysis, overlaid with qualitative reviews and active management within clearly defined parameters, results in an investment model which is both robust and not easy to replicate. Stable returns are achieved by taking less investment risk, at higher valuations. Investment Process We believe that an uncompromising investment process is a key component in delivering consistent returns. Consistent Systematic Valuation Analysis of Balance Sheet and Global Macro Trends PVM Investment Process
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PVM Global Equity Long +60.2% since 2016, with a 5.3% max annual drawdown Detailed Balance Sheet Analysis with an Algorithmic market timing model One of the World's only long Equity managers not to lose money in 2022 New! PVM Global Value Opportunites Long/Short +32% in 2022, +7.2% in 2023 Aug. 2022: we predicted on CNBC that Credit Suisse would need Government support to survive Low fees, no withdrawal costs or lock-up periods Pure Value Metrics works with a broad selection of clients including, Family Offices / UHNWI, Corporates and Private Investors to offer innovative Asset Management and Trading solutions. ASSET MANAGEMENT Using our unique relative value based Investment Matrix we build investment portfolio's with superior metrics relative to main stream equity indices Discover PRIVATE BANKING ACCOUNTS Support whilst trading on a choice of industry leading platforms Discover PVM BITs Our daily round-up of Global Macro Market Trends and insightful news topics Subscribe Mag 7's in an election year - risk #QQQ / Shipping rates soar / #HYG / NFP up next #KWEB / Shipping / Crypto / ISM softer / CROSSJPY's higher, weak JPN data / NFP up next U.S debt : $34 Trn / FTSE100 is 40 today / Q4 FOMO and Jan reversal risk / FOMC minutes later on today Featured Content CNBC Interview - August 2022 PVM & Bloomberg on Global Macroeconomics