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  • SXTP 200dma, Copper/Russel / GS on EV sales / Musk does it again / TWI / Lagarde next

    ECB’s Lagarde is going to be as dovish as she can be, as usual, but that’s mostly priced in already, Bund yields not too far from policy overall…UBS / The ECB meets to decide policy. ECB President Lagarde has been speaking a lot recently, though it is not certain that these interventions have improved investor understanding about policy. Interest in today’s meeting is around medium-term policy. The ECB has set itself a new inflation target to miss, and markets want to know how they intend to go about missing it Elon Musk Says He "Might Pump" but "Doesn't Dump" at Bitcoin Conference – quite how this guy…OK I won’t say anything - UK’s Kwasi Kwarteng warns of food and fuel shortages due to…’’Pingdemic’’ (nothing to do with Brexit clearly..) Bipartisan group says it's still on track after setback on Senate floor Virus Updates: Australian PM apologises for COVID-19 vaccine delays as cases spike, Indonesia reported a record 1,383 deaths and said it will shift to a four-level movement restriction system. Pfizer and BioNTech will partner with South Africa's Biovac Institute to make their vaccine at a facility in Cape Town and deliver more than 100 million doses annually to African nations. In the U.S., NYC will begin requiring vaccinations or weekly testing of all workers in its public hospitals and clinics in an attempt to slow an increase in cases. India's actual death toll from Covid could range between 1.3 million and a staggering 5 million, research models and local authority data suggest. More variants are coming but the U.S. isn't ready to track them. For much of the pandemic, sequencing has been piecemeal, spread between academic research labs, hospitals, philanthropist-funded nonprofits, state health departments, and rare commercial participants. The people hunting for mutations want the system fixed urgently. The key stuff that matters…The longer term outlook for stocks remains rosy according to JPM - "Fed being active for at least another 9 month (=FED balance-sheet hitting new highs again/still..), strong corporate balance sheets, increasing buybacks, potential for M&A/Private Equity buyouts, and the healthiest consumer financial profile in our lifetimes should continue to support a move higher in Equities". GS raises EV sales forecasts for the next 20 years by around 20%, now having EV penetration to 56% in 2040. Highlighting Tesla, BYD, VW, and Toyota "as companies we expect to capitalize on this electrification mega trend". Also introducing a hyper adoption scenario (chart 2). The EU 2035 decision is a key driver to estimate changes The UK wants to renegotiate post-Brexit trade rules with the EU. Brexit minister David Frost has termed the Northern Ireland protocol unsustainable, but the European Commission isn’t having it. GM forced to halt most large pickup truck production due to chip shortage Markets : Russel looked ugly on Monday, and suddenly it doesn’t anymore – still in range of last few months (chart) – SXTP (Travel & Leisure index) is hitting the long term trend as well as the 200 day moving average (chart), Russel vs Copper (chart) – copper remains in consolidation too, it didn’t really react to any of the equity (brief..) weakness late last week/Monday.. VVIX, VIX etc all back lower/softer CROSSJPY’s should continue their recovery, EURO looks offered going into ECB, but watch out as ‘expectations are pretty dovish’ and pretty well priced in TWI crude bounced 5-6pct yesterday, perhaps the question is quite why it went down so much on this light OPEC+ deal… BTC and other crypto jumped 10pct or more on..Musk and perhaps fact that BTC held 30K/failed to push lower, jury is still, no real view, if you loved BTC at 50K..you should like it here or below ! Today's Saxo Market Call podcast: https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/sentiment-comeback-broadens-ahead-of-ecb-meeting/ As we look at the broadening uplift in risk sentiment, with even crypto responding to the backdrop, next steps for US treasuries and the US dollar & more. Today with johnjhardy at the helm. Slides: https://bit.ly/3eInOFZ https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Natural-disasters/Deadly-floods-hit-central-China-as-military-warns-of-dam-collapse Deadly floods hit central China as military warns of dam collapse Xi orders relief reinforcement, prevention measures in Henan Province https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/564205-bipartisan-group-says-its-still-on-track-after-setback-on-senate-floor Bipartisan group says it's still on track after setback on Senate floor The UK wants to renegotiate post-Brexit trade rules with the EU. Brexit minister David Frost has termed the Northern Ireland protocol unsustainable, but the European Commission isn’t having it. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/21/uk-substantially-rewrite-northern-ireland-brexit-protocol 'We've been clear - if you've been pinged, you must isolate' - Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng urges Brits to isolate if they've been pinged - and he doesn't think the situation will get worse, despite huge staff shortage across various sectors China and the U.S. are shipping goods to each other at the briskest pace in years, making the world’s largest bilateral trade relationship look as if the protracted tariff war and pandemic never happened https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-22/u-s-china-goods-trade-booms-as-if-virus-tariffs-never-happened GM forced to halt most large pickup truck production due to chip shortage https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/gm-to-halt-most-large-pickup-truck-production-due-to-chip-shortage.html Have a wonderful day, no daily tomorrow, back next week Team PVM

  • Apollo 11 custom declaration!/ECB 8trn/JPM raising S&P targets/Car prices../Share buybacks in H2/NG

    Germany and the USA apparently close to an agreement in the dispute over Nord Stream 2 The White House and U.S. congressional negotiators are scrambling to salvage a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal after Republicans balked at funding to enforce existing tax laws - a key way to pay for the plan - leaving both sides searching for a way forward…..come up early with a huge number and eventually deliver half of it ?.. ECB balance sheet on course €8tn. Total assets rose by another €24.1bn to hit fresh ATH of €7,950.7bn as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling. ECB balance sheet now equal to 75% of Eurozone‘s GDP vs Fed‘s 37.2%....‘Forceful for longer’: Investors bet ECB bond buying is here to stay JPM: We are revising higher our EPS estimates by an additional $5 to $205 for 2021 and raising our long-held 2021 year-end price target of 4,400 to 4,600… Goldman's commodity team says that Delta is just another manageable speed bump. GS: "We acknowledge that oil prices may continue to gyrate (wildly) in the coming weeks given the uncertainties of the Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments relative to the recent demand gains visible in daily high frequency data. Nonetheless, we believe that the oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is not over, driven by (1) poor accumulated producer returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inflationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand" Autos has been hude driver of the U.S inflation overshoot, but cooling demand suggest it will soon become a drag ! (chart) Digital banking app Revolut launches travel booking service Corporates remain the largest source of demand for equities and 2H (starting now as we are exiting blackout) will be huge. Every day.... (chart) EU aims to ban anonymous crypto-asset wallets - Commission plans EU-wide €10,000 limit on cash payments Apollo 11 U.S. Customs declaration after first moon landing by astronauts of today 1969 ….random but magic!.. (see below) Bezos… “I also want to thank every Amazon employee and every Amazon customer because you guys paid for all of this.”….speaking the truth! And should thank most governments for very large and far too generous tax arb/advantages AMZN has benefited for years… Australia's two largest states reported sharp increases in new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, a blow to hopes that lockdown restrictions would be lifted with more than half the country's population under stay-at-home orders, UK Border officials told not to make Covid checks on green and amber list arrivals …, The delta variant now makes up 83% of all sequenced cases in the U.S., the CDC said. The Tokyo Olympic organizing committee CEO didn't rule out a last-minute cancellation of the games, Reuters reported, though Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga, in a WSJ interview, defended his decision to hold them. J&J's vaccine is much less effective against the Delta and Lambda variants than against the original virus, the NYT reported, citing a new study posted online. Indonesia may start easing curbs July 26 if cases keep falling, President Joko Widodo said. Singapore added a record local 182 infections. Hong Kong delayed letting the vaccinated return from high-risk places, the SCMP reported. Thailand is in talks to buy second-generation vaccines. More than two-third of Indians have antibodies, according to a survey Markets : Stocks are like a volleyball floating in an ocean of liquidities.. Central Banks had a massive effort to flatten the curves and smash few equity sectors.. HOWEVER, central bank balance-sheets still on the increase, share buybacks will be huge in H2 2021 and JPM raises S&P target to 4600 on higher earnings…hard to be bearish equity overall ! CROSSJPY’s found a base yesterday, UST bonds had a Very decent turnaround day?.. 10y UST yields dipped to 1.18, and back to 1.25, maybe, just maybe these were the lows for now, with sizeable auctions coming up now WTI Crude dipped towards $65 – taking the froth out of this market, see GS above, still bullish. NatGas, some payers talking pretty bullish price action Equity markets, bouncing back up quite easily overall (as lo.ng as…Central Banks are increasing their balance-sheets…still, share buybacks keep coming and you even get JPM to increase price targets on higher earnings…)…TINA, can’t beat them lower for too long https://www.ft.com/content/2cf6e9bd-797a-4666-a742-470c292f1fb7 ‘Forceful for longer’: Investors bet ECB bond buying is here to stay Central bank’s new inflation target sets stage for lengthier period of loose monetary policy https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/us-equities-rebound-but-backdrop-not-fully-on-board-with-sentiment-shift/ US equities rebound, but backdrop not fully on board with sentiment shift - Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2Up50oj - Deutschland und USA offenbar vor Einigung im Streit über Nord Stream 2 http://to.welt.de/ueVEPJK Yesterday saw a very steep rebound in US equities, an impressive move that was mirrored in safe haven US treasuries reversing sharply from significant new highs yesterday. But there was a notable lack of similar energy in some other markets, as the Japanese equity market closed far off its highs despite a USDJPY rebound, and the particularly in FX, where the USD has remained strong more broadly and the AUD, for example, punched to new lows for the cycle versus the greenback. Also on the call, we preview tomorrow's ECB meeting with Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik, as well as the status of the German and French elections. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/20/jeff-bezos-space-flight-billionaires-earth-sinking-ship?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1626787991 Why is Bezos is flying to space? Because billionaires think Earth is a sinking ship…..to space but not the moon ?..just a big boys toy really.. ….Democrat proposes taxes on commercial space flights for non-scientific purposes on same day Jeff Bezos participated in trip to the edge of space http://hill.cm/9z4Uhzr Junior bankers on Wall Street need to work 12-hour days, 6 days a week, to master the job faster, JPMorgan's Mary Erdoes says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-20/wall-street-jpmorgan-exec-says-why-bankers-need-to-work-72-hours-a-week?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_medium=social https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-infrastructure/u-s-infrastructure-deal-teeters-after-republicans-reject-irs-funding-idUSKBN2EQ1XX U.S. infrastructure deal teeters after Republicans reject IRS funding June slump in Australia's retail sales clouds Q3 growth outlook https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-retail-sales-slump-june-virus-lockdowns-preliminary-data-2021-07-21/ UK will threaten to tear up Boris Johnson’s promises in Brexit deal as businesses list problems https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-northern-ireland-marks-spencer-lord-frost-b1887733.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1626852715 The debt to GDP ratio now stands at 99.7 per cent - but borrowing at least fell slightly in June https://buff.ly/3eAFnYr Quel joke ! https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/20/border-officials-told-not-to-make-covid-checks-on-green-and-amber-list-arrivalsBorder officials told not to make Covid checks on green and amber list arrivals Exclusive: officers in England no longer have to verify whether new arrivals have received a negative Covid test https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-57854811 Covid: Boris Johnson resisted autumn lockdown as only over-80s dying - Dominic Cummings https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439440-palantir-stock-10-year-forecast?mailingid=5621552&messageid=must_reads&serial=5621552.0&utm_campaign=Must%2BRead%2BJuly%2B20&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads Palantir: A Lot Of Growth For Many Years Digital banking app Revolut launches travel booking service https://finance.yahoo.com/news/digital-banking-app-revolut-launches-230100375.html https://au.news.yahoo.com/tokyo-the-olympics-no-ones-quite-sure-about-072709121.html Tokyo ... the Olympics no one's quite sure about Earnings will save the day.....JPM US strategy: "We are revising higher our EPS estimates by an additional $5 to $205 for 2021 and raising our long-held 2021 year-end price target of 4,400 to 4,600. At a thematic/sector level, the risk/reward for reopening stocks has improved significantly with the recent pullback creating many unusually attractive opportunities for investors to re-enter various parts of the cyclical cohort" Bezos talks as if he is the first man to go into space…..Check out the cargo in 1969.. !... have a super day ahead Team PVM

  • BTC <30K / F&G / Crude - OVX / HOOD valuation / FED's Kashkari, BoE's Mann, RBA minutes

    Jeff Bezos and three fellow passengers are about to make a ‘’pioneering’’.. journey into space Market been doing a great job destroying the early 2021 Spring's inflation psychology…And the big June tally in crude also got burned off..(after OPEC+ deal..) US NAHB Housing Market Index Jul: 80 (est 82; prev 81), Fed's Neel Kashkari says many US sectors struggling to adjust to reopening The epidemic curve is literally in the hands of the (UK) public, in terms of behaviors, Jonathan Van-Tam said as he urged people to be gradual and cautious in the reopening, China’s cyberspace authority has drafted new rules requiring its approval of technology firms before allowing international initial public offerings. This action underlines our concern that recent regulatory curbs on the technology sector are becoming an increasing drag on the broader Chinese market. The MSCI China index has trailed the MSCI All Country World index by 8 percentage points over the past three months France Has New Vaccination Requirements, Could Similar Programs Work in the US?, U.S. government tells individuals to avoid travel to the UK as Covid cases rise, Half of Australia Back in Lockdown as Delta Tests Covid-Zero, Apple will postpone returning to the office by at least a month as virus variants persist, Boris Johnson says key workers will be exempt from self-isolation rules; nightclubs and large venues will need to ensure customers are vaccinated (both jabs) from end September, Singapore tightened covid measures again, Brits will be REFUSED entry into clubs from September unless they can show proof of two Covid jabs MS’s Wilson worried (text-chart) - “The impact of Covid on the stock market isn’t over yet,” said the head of U.S. equity strategy with RBC Capital Markets. “We’re not saying it’s going to derail the recovery. We don’t think that, but we do think it could cause some additional bumps.” Markets Markets started to move post FOMC in June.. front-end moved/flatter curves etc, CROSSJPY’s topped (eventually sold-off last 3-4weeks..)..and eventually the Delta risk pushed few things/equity through support levels last few days/weeks… And just like that, Dow Jones posted its worst day in 9 months, EZ stocks worst day in 7months etc – Russell almost breaking down, China, Nikkei hit a 6months low!.. and few other sub sectors been lagging on a bigger scale for a while, Fear&Greed index over time (chart) UST 10y yields sub 1.20% - long rallying, also on most likely lower inflation expectations with lower crude – post OPEC+ deal.. Oil is broke below the long term trend. Note we took out the 50 day moving average earlier y’day, and right near 100dma (chart) BTC <30K, but other secondary coins hit much harder lately.. USD remains firm to slightly firmer, CROSSJPY’s remains soft in ‘sell rally mode’ Having been light on risk lately, we should find some good opportunities over next few weeks, as markets hesitate on actual economic recovery, struggle to actually re-open or lack of (more like new lockdowns in few places) etc.. and inflationary impacts due to supply chain issues https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2021/2021-07-06.html RBA Minutes said “conditions for an increase in the cash rate would not be met until 2024”; “economic outcomes had been materially better than earlier expected…in light of these improvements…members decided to adjust weekly purchases from $5 billion to $4 billion”. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/feds-neel-kashkari-says-many-us-sectors-struggling-to-adjust-to-reopening-7189541.html Fed's Neel Kashkari says many US sectors struggling to adjust to reopening “Basically, what’s happening is the U.S. economy went through a very abrupt shutdown a year ago,” Kashkari told NPR in an interview published on Saturday New BoE rate-setter Mann warns against premature end to stimulus http://reut.rs/2Ul4xU6 https://saxostrats.podbean.com/e/market-holds-breath-after-testing-pivotal-levels/Market holds breath after testing pivotal levels - Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xRLG17 - Markets suffered a steep extension of the sell-off yesterday, with many European bourses suffering their worst session of the year. In the US, the market found support at rather pivotal levels, with the burning tactical question from here whether the market can pull itself together and keep this sell-off in the "consolidation" category or whether we are suffered for a more significant deleveraging move, or "correction". Also on today's pod, our strategist in Australia, Eleanor Creagh, takes us through the RBA's latest thinking, the outlook down under for the economy, corporate earnings and more. The huge plunge in oil, spike in US treasuries and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy Robinhood Markets is targeting a valuation of up to $35 billion in its initial public offering. The company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol ‘HOOD’ https://reut.rs/3Bfo74N https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/20/easyjet-flights-covid-malta-green-list-countries?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1626767915 EasyJet operated 17% flights compared with the same period in 2019 in the three months to 30 June (a total of 24,682), slightly less than planned, and carried 3 million passengers. It made revenues of £212m, up from £7.2m a year earlier when its fleet was fully grounded for all but two weeks of the quarter. Its loss before tax fell by 8.2% to £318m… https://apnews.com/article/business-science-e0afeaa813ff0bdf23c37fe16fd34265 Bezos riding own rocket on company’s 1st flight with people They already went to the moon 50years ago.. China was accused of a Microsoft hack. The US, the UK, the EU, and NATO issued statements that an entity originating in China exploited vulnerabilities to steal private-sector business information. https://qz.com/2035281/why-did-the-us-accuse-china-of-hacking-microsoft/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=daily-brief&utm_content=4d5ce436-e8d5-11eb-8740-366ce6f7eb0a https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439402-disclosure-dilemma-when-more-data-leads-to-less-information?mailingid=5621552&messageid=must_reads&serial=5621552.0&utm_campaign=Must%2BRead%2BJuly%2B19&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads Disclosure Dilemma: When More (Data) Leads To Less (Information)! https://www.healthline.com/health-news/france-has-new-vaccination-requirements-could-similar-programs-work-in-the-us France Has New Vaccination Requirements, Could Similar Programs Work in the US? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/cdc-tells-individuals-to-avoid-travel-to-the-uk-as-covid-cases-rise.html U.S. government tells individuals to avoid travel to the UK as Covid cases rise Whole travelling sector, airlines further hit yesterday.. Morgan Stanley strategists’ mid-cycle transition narrative has been playing out nicely since mid-March, with small caps and lower-quality stocks underperforming consistently. Quality can mean a lot of things and for many it simply means large cap growth win. While many of these stocks fit the high-quality bill, they think the quality rotation will now begin to favor more defensive properties like earnings stability rather than growth. In this week’s missive, Mike Wilson downgrades Materials (while upgrading Staples). Materials are highly levered to the early cycle part of the recovery and inflection higher in commodity prices, which now look vulnerable to a correction as we get a payback on demand from last year's over consumption. A word on Breadth: Market breadth has been deteriorating for months and is just another confirmation of the mid-cycle transition, in their view. It usually ends with a material (10-20%) index level correction. More specifically, they think it is foreshadowing a significant growth deceleration in earnings and the economy that may feel worse than most are expecting

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  • Personal Trading | Pure Value Metrics AG

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  • Asset Management | Pure Value Metrics AG | Switzerland

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