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Blog Posts (138)
- NVDA/Paralysed man walks again/Fed Terminal rate back to 5.25%!/ $.. / SPX 4200 'ceiling' / PCE next
So we have the SPX500 ceiling at 4200 that hel for 9months and the U.S debt ceiling Fitch puts United States’ AAA rating on negative watch, citing debt ceiling fight From 'science fiction' to reality: Paralyzed man walks again thanks to brain and spine implants,“It was quite science fiction at the very beginning but it became true today,” said Dr. Jocelyne Bloch, co-leader and a neurosurgeon at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland.... early days still, BUT amazing stuff !! FOMC: "Participants generally expressed uncertainty about how much more policy tightening may be appropriate. Many participants focused on the need to retain optionality after this meeting." >>> we moved from 10bp cut in July to a full hike priced in now within 2 weeks..>>> Fed terminal rate creeps higher to 5.25% as Fed minutes slightly hawkish MSCI emerging markets are also back to flat for the year - China reopening story pretty short-lived (+more about higher rates for longer?..) FT-Gold : “It’s hard to push back against an asset with a 5,000-year history of providing wealth,” UK set to win multi-billion pound battle with Spain for Jaguar Land Rover EV battery plant, finally some +ve news in UK RIP Tina Turner - simply the best! First private fully automated vault in Switzerland Germany suffered a winter (light..) recession, fresh data shows, with first-quarter output dropping 0.3% versus initial estimate of 0% Warren Buffett's shifting Asian portfolio. Geopolitics push 'Oracle of Omaha' to move away from China and invest in Japan BOJ's Ueda reaffirms to patiently continue with monetary easing...plus ca change.. Markets : NVDA up about 200bn$in market cap terms after hours, lifting the whole complex back, I know I know it 'often' doesn't mater these days.. but that's a P/E of 180 or so by now.. Everybody got excited about the break out in SPX, got sucked in, just to realize that the "fat and flat" narrative remains intact. The big range is intact, and for the short term, we are approaching the first supports around 4100..SPX500 - the 'other ceiling' around 4200. HangSeng down 8% in last 8 trading days too, EMG equities and CSI300 giving up 2023 gains too >>> again, megacaps doing ok, but it isn't that pretty underneath EURUSD braking through key trend line support around 1.0760, KIWI got hammered, AUD following, USDJPY near 140 again, USDCHF finding it's mojo back above .90+, GOLD and other metals lower ALL about UST's with 2's back t 4.40% ahead of U.S claims today and PCE tomorrow, UST's leads USD higher and eventually equity markets come under pressure, momentum and therefore sentiment can shift quickly Fitch puts U.S. AAA rating on negative watch over debt ceiling (cnbc.com) The Fed - Monetary Policy: (federalreserve.gov) Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report Q1 2024 (cnbc.com) Companies are talking about 'recession' less. Economic data helps explain why. (yahoo.com) From 'science fiction' to reality: Paralyzed man walks again thanks to brain and spine implants (msn.com) this is phenomenal ! Paralysed man walks again thanks to 'digital bridge' that wirelessly reconnects brain and spinal cord | Science & Tech News | Sky News whaooo UK to win multi-bn pound battle with Spain for Jaguar battery plant (cityam.com) That's a big win - 9'000 jobs eventually The new gold boom: how long can it last? | Financial Times (ft.com) Warren Buffett's shifting Asian portfolio - Nikkei Asia "There's Poop Everywhere": San Francisco's Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It's Also Covered In Sh*t | ZeroHedge what a sad state of affairs !! Reuters on Twitter: "The raging wildfires in western Canada have wiped out more than two million acres of land in Alberta. Officials said Australia and New Zealand are set to send assistance to help tame the blaze https://t.co/AXP29U0bTu" / Twitter whaoo! Queen of Rock ‘n’ Roll Tina Turner dies aged 83 - SWI swissinfo.ch Yes, Prime Minister S02E04 - A Conflict Of Interest - video Dailymotion 1987 - could have been written 6months ago ! great stuff :-) Heim | Safebox24 AG Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/3 Very interesting Caixin article on China's battered trusts and their attempts to clean up the surge in nonperforming assets and risky loans on their books. China's 68 trusts have RMB 22 billion of assets. https://t.co/CufpyjwXAC" / Twitter OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says Elon Musk was a mentor. But he doesn’t share Musk’s enthusiasm for Mars | Fortune Chinese premier holds talks with Russian counterpart - World - Chinadaily.com.cn Severn Trent dividend exceeds £260m amid rising anger over sewage pollution | Severn Trent | The Guardian jus say sorry , who cares,. move on.. EURUSD here, but as noted 2weeks ago '''eurusd lost momentum 1.10+', UST lead, USD follows, and eventually equity notice
- French decree on short flights / UK core infl up ⬆️/ CSI300,LVMH,Copper ⬇️ / U.S claims & PCE next
Pasta prices have surged, prompting crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike, mamma mia! The French government published a decree Tuesday that banned domestic commercial airline flights for journeys possible in less than two-and-a-half hours by train, will it work? US Data Tuesday was mixed: Flash PMI data on services was a beat but manufacturing a miss (UK, Germany, much the same..), US debt ceiling impasse: Negotiations extend as: As funds run short, Treasury asks agencies if payments can be made later. Senior Biden aides are rummaging through the nation’s books, looking for new ways to conserve cash while Washington battles over the debt ceiling “We can have a dramatically more prosperous future; but we have to manage risk to get there,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote ''At last! UK inflation falls below 10% for first time since August''.. It was 8.7% YoY in April, going in the right direction, BUT core higher...not great clearly!! >> June hike nailed on! and 'peak' rates up to 5.5% immediately.. Lithium developers... Brace yourself for the recovery. Geologist, James Cooper, offers his take on why developers could be entering a Goldilocks period as the lithium sector braces for a recovery The IMF has today joined a group of top economic institutions in DITCHING its call that the UK will suffer a tough recession this year and Top officials at the Bank of England today admitted they have undershot the strength of inflation, with governor Andrew Bailey confessing the central bank has some “very big” lessons to learn over how it sets interest rates -The US Secret Service said it had detained the driver of a rented box truck that crashed into security barriers near the White House, perhaps intentionally, but that there were no injuries or ongoing danger RBNZ hikes 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, 2 dissent and a pause discussed >> NZD down almost 2% Netflix password-sharing crackdown rolls out in the U.S. China PM Li Qiang meets with Russia's Mishustin in Beijing. China and Russia sign MOU on service trade cooperation >>> overall CHINA data is much weaker than many economist expected few months back...!!, regional bankruptcies, copper, LVMH (luxury sector), bridges to nowhere (article yesterday)..all pretty bad signs on the economy there Markets : SPX500 'never' closed above 4200, 'may' be running out of steam ahead of VERY key data over next24hours, with PCE tomorrow, rates been ratcheting up lately. DAX topped at ATH's levels too, slight loss of momentum in short-term ahead of KEY macro data, and CSI 300 Index drops by 1.1%, erases 2023 gains. Luxury stocks topped out and got sold fairly hard yesterday too USDollar will follow rates (2x UST up to 4.3%), CROSSJPY's had a good rally on +ve risk and higher global yields, all about macro U.S data and PCE GOLD held where it should have for the bulls - $1950, Copper down again U.S debt ceiling drama continues, beginning to think they kick the can down the road to after the summer.. Copper price slides as global demand drops sharply. LME stockpiles build up rapidly as European industrial activity cools U.S. Treasury asks about later payments as debt ceiling deadline nears - The Washington Post Monetary Policy Statement May 2023 - Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Te Pūtea Matua (rbnz.govt.nz) Copper price slides as global demand drops sharply | Financial Times (ft.com) Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips (msn.com) Netflix password sharing crackdown starts in U.S. (cnbc.com) Ukraine war: US distances itself from Belgorod incursion into Russia - BBC News Los going on over there - hard to know exactly what's what..! A Poor Province in China Splurged on Bridges and Roads. Now It’s Facing a Debt Reckoning. - WSJ just fabUlous bridges! ithas ot be said, but.. >> Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/4 "Don’t look at Guizhou’s problem in isolation. Guizhou’s problem is also a national problem. Eventually, someone must pay for it. The question is who." This is the nub of the problem. https://t.co/k5LaY4kfje via @WSJ" / Twitter Andrew Bailey and Huw Pill admit they got it wrong on inflation (cityam.com) IMF ditches UK recession call, lifts GDP growth from bottom of G7 (cityam.com) Lithium developers... Brace yourself for the recovery - James Cooper | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com) Altman and Pichai now want governments to regulate A.I. | Fortune Malaysian authorities raid Swatch stores over ‘Pride Collection’ - SWI swissinfo.ch “We strongly contest that our collection of watches using rainbow colours and having a message of peace and love could be harmful for whomever,” Swatch Group CEO Nick Hayek Jr. said in a statement Let's smash the political silence on Brexit - a Politics crowdfunding project in London by European Movement UK (crowdfunder.co.uk) Support for Brexit has plummeted. Only 32% of the public believe we were right to leave Europe*. So why are politicians so unwilling to admit there's a problem - let alone fix it? .... will 'a' party go for it at the next GE next year?.. Pasta prices have surged, prompting crisis meetings in Italy and calls for a strike (cnbc.com) Driver detained as truck crashes near White House; Nazi flag found | Reuters Check out the flag on the floor.. Why Forcing Employees to Return to the Office Is Insane (businessinsider.com) Any thoughts on this ? Mostly symbolic or will it be enforced ? France banned short domestic flights to get tough on emissions (qz.com) LVHM got way overdone, china peaked again, 'longs beware' - luxury sector !
- Fed 'skipping' / Russia update, Belgorod../ U.S debt ceiling drama still, kick the can to Sep ?
FED talks and expectations between a hike, a pause or cuts, now the chatters are for a 'skipp - skipping! , telegraphed by few Fed officials >>> wouldn't be too surprised if the ''debt ceiling can'' gets kicked into September too Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum . Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites. All eyes on impact of 4% pay rise at major firms, the largest in 30 years CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event >>> a reminder that CDS 'trading or hedging' is just a tool ahead of the event, rarely do they payout.. US Bank Deposits are down 5.6% from their peak last year, the largest drawdown we've seen since 1975 >>> no wonder if banks don't want to pay any or hardly any interest on deposits, funds will (continue to) go to MM Funds and UST's.. FT-“Germany recorded its highest level of foreign direct investment last year with a surge in UK companies setting up operations to retain a post-Brexit presence in the EU” Brexit has been a boom for other European countries! Russia : Putin will never stop his invasion of UKR >>> the only way it ever stops is if/when other Russian soldiers ''to their own things'' internally and through massive defections etc, Russian propaganda narratives are becoming increasingly gloomier and more anxious as the "special military operation" continues, Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia "Our call for a more meaningful decline in the S&P 500 in 1Q/1H23 has been wrong," Mike Wilson (a big bear giving up) Pretty extraordinary PMI numbers from Germany this morning. Manuf at 42.9 is in a sharp contraction Services at 57.8 are seeing quite a surge >>> so UK like (ECB can spin it as they wish going forward and skip!?) French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24% Markets : Commodities, copper, steel all a little softer again, precious metals struggling too, XAUUSD pretty key support around $1950 area - chart below UST' doing some pretty strong 'tightening' work (no longer 75bps of cuts priced in by end of 2023!).., 2's back to 4.36!..higher for longer, skip (why not), the risk was always IMHO that a pause, a skip, does NOT mean cuts are coming as quickly as already priced by markets, thus the 'regional bank' risk will probably come back one way or another SPX500 4200, NQ, megacaps, small breath, RTY is all known, DAX near ATH's too Fed Officials Consider Skipping a Hike in June — But Don’t Call It a Pause - Bloomberg It's not a pause, it's a SKIP Ian Harnett on Twitter: "Sorry that we have to repeat this message - but the key reason to remain cautious is that the CREDIT CRUNCH FOR CORPORATES IS ONLY JUST STARTING… https://t.co/Az3XnJb72C" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany, which is facing difficult demographic times. Old-age dependency ratio has already risen well >30: fewer than 3 people of working age face one person of retirement age. Only in Japan, Italy & Finland is the population even more over-aged. (HT @Tiefseher) https://t.co/WHt379fcEP" / Twitter Anton Gerashchenko on Twitter: "An organization calling themselves "Freedom of Russia Legion" published a video on their Telegram channel. "The time has come to put an end to the Kremlin dictatorship! Be brave and have no fear because we are coming home! Russia will be free!" They said after criticizing… https://t.co/9a7p31em82" / Twitter LOTS of those type of comments/action on Twitter these days, looks like internals are rising.. >>> The Post-Putin World Will Be So Much Better than This One – Real Context News (RCN) Russia-Ukraine war live: Belgorod governor urges residents not to return to area attacked by anti-Kremlin militia (theguardian.com) etc etc.. Peace, food and fertilizer: African leaders' challenge heading to talks with Moscow, Kyiv | AP News S&P Global PMI™ on Twitter: "Japan’s private sector saw the strongest rise in activity since October 2013 with the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite #PMI posting 54.9 (Apr final: 52.9). Service providers reported strong growth momentum. @jibunbank Read more: https://t.co/UqauL0swwF https://t.co/m96DBJwXhn" / Twitter and yet ...they still doing QE, YCC etc Neue Nord-Stream-Theorie: Deutsche Ermittler haben wohl entscheidende neue Spuren entdeckt. Sie führen in die Ukraine (weltwoche.ch) That's another twist to the plot of who bombed the Nord-Stream pipeline.. The London Economic on Twitter: "Yvette Cooper struck quite the nerve with Suella Braverman 👀⏬ https://t.co/PXZikcTLAh" / Twitter Suella Braverman did ‘nothing untoward’ by allegedly seeking private speeding course | The Independent >>> The issue is not her having a 1on1 course. It’s asking Civil Servants to arrange for it. It was a private matter, nothing to do with her public duties CDS Panel Rules Credit Suisse Takeover Not a Bankruptcy Event - Bloomberg Also called in some corners ''financial manipulation' Japan's real wages fall most in 8 years as inflation bites - Nikkei Asia Why car parks are the hottest space in solar power - BBC News Fact Check: Was There an Explosion at the Pentagon? (newsweek.com) MAD AI !.. Here's Why the US Doesn't Have to Pay Off Its $31 Trillion Debt: Krugman (businessinsider.com) Can I also not repay my debt ? French billionaire Patrick Drahi ups BT stake to more than 24% | BT | The Guardian $1950 XAUUSD is the level +
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