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Strong NFP Friday + port strike ended : FED cut expectations felt like too much priced in..speed of rates cuts...>> Nov cut expectations immediately down to smalls below 25bps, USDollar pushes higher, yields and stocks up >>> it's about growth and markets liked it >>> FOMC on Wed, CPI on Thursday ( Goldman sees: +0.10% headline m/m +0.28% core m/m +2.27% headline y/y +3.16% core y/y) and PPI Friday, then earnings season again and U.S election early Nov #Lithium prices collapsed in recent months...RioTinto confirmed that it has approached Arcadium Lithium about a possible takeover, a deal that would make Rio Tinto one of the largest producers of lithium in the world HSI 2.5y highs, that's a 30% rally since the shock and awe moves from China, GS says surging chinese stocks may advance another 20%, not good been a teacher in China : China demands schoolteachers hand IN their passports! EU executive to adopt a 45% tariffs on Chinese EVs after vote Trump threatens a 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico, Donald Trump would raise the US debt by twice as much as Kamala Harris, report finds Rachel Reeves to spare PE bosses top UK tax rate in compromise on ‘lorio tinto ophole’ Over the month, contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ declined by 5.8% in August after unexpectedly rebounding 3.9% in July, whaoo that's another big miss SPX big picture 5750/5800 resistance, with most bullish views are for 6K into year-end, that all said most are guessing on geopolitics/crude, earnings, FED speed of cuts AND U.S elections coming up Upcoming events and webinars | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Is your portfolio ready for the US election? September jobs report builds case for smaller Fed rate cut in November ( yahoo.com ) Fed is in a moment of transition: Chicago Fed's Goolsbee ( yahoo.com ) Live updates: Israel at war with Hamas, Hezbollah 1 year after October 7 attacks | CNN Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian activist killed fighting for Ukraine as Kyiv receives first Dutch F-16s ( msn.com ) UBS Calls No All-Out Iran-Israel War as Base Case ( finews.asia ) Crude oil futures ramping up fast on Middle East escalation fears – The Armchair Trader Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat warns against speculative moves as yen falls ( cnbc.com ) German industrial orders slump more than expected in August | Reuters US port strike comes to close with new deal ( fullyloaded.com.au ) EU executive to adopt tariffs on Chinese EVs after vote ( msn.com ) Rachel Reeves to spare PE bosses top UK tax rate in compromise on ‘loophole’ ( ft.com ) Sue Gray resigns as Downing Street chief of staff | Politics News | Sky News Trump threatens a 200% tariff on vehicles imported from Mexico | Reuters Donald Trump would raise the US debt by twice as much as Kamala Harris, report finds ( ft.com ) Milton To Become Hurricane Tonight, Florida Threat | Weather.com Good grief another one underway FTSE 100 mining giant Rio Tinto confirms interest in Arcadium Lithium ( msn.com ) #lithium market alive again The curse of the Michelin star ( economist.com ) When a restaurant gets a Michelin star: Customer expectations rise, employee wage demands rise, suppliers expect you to pay more, and the restaurant is more likely to go out of business in the ensuing years

Why the SNB should reconsider the Gold Question #XAUUSD Big downside surprise in French inflation, CPI down to 1.2% in September!, services inflation down to 2.5%, ECB will move sharply again in October, Spain similar to rest of europe will show similar dets #USDJPY down - Shigeru Ishiba wins LDP leadership race run-off , will be Japan's next prime minister - Ishiba received 215 votes in the run-off while Takaichi only got 194 votes. That's good news for yen bulls, as Takaichi was the one who had been vocal in scrutnising the BOJ for hiking rates too fast. So, Ishiba winning at least takes some of that pressure away. All In - David Tepper just said he broke (risk) limits to own China , 15-20% is usually his limit, but we think he is higher than that. When asked about a "hedge" he said I have no hedge, valuation is the hedge... >>> Technically, the double bottom is confirmed for many of the Chinese indices, china was the most significant contrarian trade this year!!..., it's coming together! potentially a long way to go >>>> basically it's as big as what Draghi did in 2012, and if it's not enough, China will do more! it's the BIG bazooka and add softer crude which is another stimulus ! BASF, the world's largest chemical company, will cut its dividend by as much as ~33% (to "at least" €2.25 per share from €3.40 per share last year). BASF has been one of the biggest victims of the European energy crisis U.S Regulators are exploring a requirement that larger banks maintain a minimum amount of readily available liquidity with a “pool of reserves and pre-positioned collateral” at the discount window, based on a fraction of their uninsured deposits UK chancellor ready to water down planned tax raid on wealthy foreigners Rachel Reeves had hoped to raise £1bn a year by tightening rules on ‘non-doms’ SNB cut rates by 25bps as expected BUT conveyed very dovish tone significantly revising down the entire inflation path by 2027 Rudy Giuliani disbarred in DC after pushing Trump's false 2020 election claims China's central bank cuts RRR by 50 basis points to strengthen market confidence - Global Times Former Defense Minister Ishiba chosen as Japan’s next Prime Minister, appointment next week, japan, Shigeru Ishiba, japan new prime minister, japan election, fumio kishida, world, latest news, ( mathrubhumi.com ) Why the SNB Should Reconsider the Gold Question ( finews.com ) Fed's Barr previews mandatory collateral prepositioning, liquidity reforms | American Banker This is potentially another huger source of liquidities Joseph Wang on X: "Barr is boosting demand for Treasuries by strengthening the fungibility between reserves and Tsy for banks. He will allow banks to take into account monetizing of Treasuries via discount window or standing repo facility for their liquidity tests. https://t.co/AUcOT39nE2 " / X UK chancellor ready to water down planned tax raid on wealthy foreigners ( ft.com ) BASF presents new corporate strategy: BASF is setting a new direction for portfolio steering, capital allocation and performance culture Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Faces DOJ Probe and Stock Volatility - Tokenist Mark Cuban on VP Harris' move to the center: She believes the country needs to come together ( cnbc.com ) China Announces Cash Handouts for the Poor in Rare Use of Aid - Bloomberg Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA on X: "China Politburo held a special meeting, and set the Chinese market on fire. It’s special because: - It’s unusual to hold a politburo meeting to discuss the economy in September. The timing is out of ordinary, and the timing of the announcement is set to coincide with the policy https://t.co/cfCRamWGQp " / X China covered up sinking of newest submarine, says US official | The Straits Times Louis Curran on X: "My Take On China China - I was working on a presentation yesterday which I'd spoke to one or two about, which basically suggested that the steps and style of how the PBOC intervened 2 days ago were emblematic of Draghi's effort's to Stabilise the Euro in July 2012. We will do https://t.co/EbqFLv1to5 " / X couldn't agree more with L C ! Billionaire investor David Tepper on China: Central bank comments 'exceeded expectations' ( cnbc.com ) Japan SDF destroyer sails through Taiwan Strait for 1st time - Nikkei Asia Saudi Arabia to drop $100 crude target to win back market share, FT reports | Reuters Rudy Giuliani disbarred in DC after pushing Trump's false 2020 election claims ( msn.com ) More #silver #xagusd #SILJ Ole S Hansen on X: "Today's movement in #silver once again underscores that the metal behaves like #gold on steroids, spiced with inspiration from its industrial metal friends. It generally follows the same trajectory as gold, but with more volatility, and occasional detours along the way." / X

UN Security Council debates Middle East crisis, as US leads efforts for a ceasefire solution, UN chief criticizes divided Security Council for failure of leadership to end wars, calls for unity China’s politburo pledges fiscal support for economy-FT China’s $100 Billion Short Against Dollar Enriches Hedge Funds-BBG, China’s 10-year yield has hit the lowest level, ever 5y Greek yields are now below 5y French bonds (the debt pile in France is a little bigger than Greek's debt ever was/is..) and the 10 year UST yield has done nothing but go up since the Fed lowered rates (reflate-steeper curves..) The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Employment Index plummeted to 21 points in Sep, its lowest level since April 2009, and according to the Fed, U.S’s savings rate just hit a near-record low of 2.9%. While credit card debt hits a record high of $1.1 trillion Nikki Haley is bashing the Trump campaign for running one of the weakest candidates and races she’s seen, looks like the dam is breaking within the Republican Party and the base is fracturing Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share Kingdom prepares to raise output from December as it resigns itself to lower global prices Markets continue to react to China's 'bazooka' !..great timing, NOT a coincidence after jumbo FED cut last week >>> HSI, commods, energy, steeper curves, risk loving it together with slightly softer USD, though USDJPY breaking with CROSSJPY's into month-quarter-end, crude softer is ANOTHER stimulus UN Security Council debates Middle East crisis, as US leads efforts for a ceasefire solution | World News | Sky News UN chief criticizes divided Security Council for failure of leadership to end wars, calls for unity | The Independent Middle East crisis live: Israel and Hezbollah expected to respond to ceasefire proposal in ‘coming hours’, says US ( msn.com ) China’s politburo pledges fiscal support for economy ( ft.com ) The stock market rally risks sparking an unsustainable 'melt-up' as the economy overheats, market vet Ed Yardeni says ( yahoo.com ) At this pace we are going to hit 6K SPX next month! Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Russia plans to destroy three nuclear power plants and their infrastructure to disconnect them from the power grid - President Zelenskyy. "And if, God forbid, Russia triggers a nuclear disaster at one of our nuclear power plants - radiation does not respect state borders and, https://t.co/WLPssZB7sB " / X China’s Banks Build $100 Billion Short on US Dollar to Prop Up Yuan (CNY USD) - Bloomberg China's latest stimulus boosts emerging-market stocks to the highest level in 2 years ( msn.com ) What do we know about Kamala Harris' economic plans on taxes, housing, manufacturing? | Reuters Meta Unveils Orion AR Glasses, Upgrades AI Chatbot With Celebrity Voices | IBTimes Markets will like this Lisa Abramowicz on X: "Some are stressing the importance of yesterday's Conference Board labor differential reading, which fell to its lowest since March 2021. Citi's Hollenhorst: "A variety of indicators confirm that the labor market...is at risk of entering in a period of a more rapid weakening" https://t.co/TyJ1MCkHGS " / X Nikki Haley Blasts GOP Candidate's Comments On Women Voters ( yahoo.com ) Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share ( ft.com )

UN Security Council debates Middle East crisis, as US leads efforts for a ceasefire solution, UN chief criticizes divided Security Council for failure of leadership to end wars, calls for unity China’s politburo pledges fiscal support for economy-FT China’s $100 Billion Short Against Dollar Enriches Hedge Funds-BBG, China’s 10-year yield has hit the lowest level, ever 5y Greek yields are now below 5y French bonds (the debt pile in France is a little bigger than Greek's debt ever was/is..) and the 10 year UST yield has done nothing but go up since the Fed lowered rates (reflate-steeper curves..) The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Employment Index plummeted to 21 points in Sep, its lowest level since April 2009, and according to the Fed, U.S’s savings rate just hit a near-record low of 2.9%. While credit card debt hits a record high of $1.1 trillion Nikki Haley is bashing the Trump campaign for running one of the weakest candidates and races she’s seen, looks like the dam is breaking within the Republican Party and the base is fracturing Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share Kingdom prepares to raise output from December as it resigns itself to lower global prices Markets continue to react to China's 'bazooka' !..great timing, NOT a coincidence after jumbo FED cut last week >>> HSI, commods, energy, steeper curves, risk loving it together with slightly softer USD, though USDJPY breaking with CROSSJPY's into month-quarter-end UN Security Council debates Middle East crisis, as US leads efforts for a ceasefire solution | World News | Sky News UN chief criticizes divided Security Council for failure of leadership to end wars, calls for unity | The Independent Middle East crisis live: Israel and Hezbollah expected to respond to ceasefire proposal in ‘coming hours’, says US ( msn.com ) China’s politburo pledges fiscal support for economy ( ft.com ) The stock market rally risks sparking an unsustainable 'melt-up' as the economy overheats, market vet Ed Yardeni says ( yahoo.com ) At this pace we are going to hit 6K SPX next month! Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Russia plans to destroy three nuclear power plants and their infrastructure to disconnect them from the power grid - President Zelenskyy. "And if, God forbid, Russia triggers a nuclear disaster at one of our nuclear power plants - radiation does not respect state borders and, https://t.co/WLPssZB7sB " / X China’s Banks Build $100 Billion Short on US Dollar to Prop Up Yuan (CNY USD) - Bloomberg China's latest stimulus boosts emerging-market stocks to the highest level in 2 years ( msn.com ) What do we know about Kamala Harris' economic plans on taxes, housing, manufacturing? | Reuters Meta Unveils Orion AR Glasses, Upgrades AI Chatbot With Celebrity Voices | IBTimes Markets will like this Lisa Abramowicz on X: "Some are stressing the importance of yesterday's Conference Board labor differential reading, which fell to its lowest since March 2021. Citi's Hollenhorst: "A variety of indicators confirm that the labor market...is at risk of entering in a period of a more rapid weakening" https://t.co/TyJ1MCkHGS " / X Nikki Haley Blasts GOP Candidate's Comments On Women Voters ( yahoo.com ) Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share ( ft.com )

China's ''basooka'' : lowered rates ands signaled more to come, lower RRR for banks (more liquidity), pledged some $100bn in equity support, stock market stabilization type fund discussed, easier rules on 2nd home purchases/Thread >>> Morgan Stanley views the event as reflecting a change in mindset in Beijing’s approach to dealing with deflation >>>> commods, industrial metals, HSI and Chinese stocks nicely up, BofA thinks it is as expected basically, a reminder that Chinese stocks have been hated (or worse shorted by many HF's) for months, investors are significantly underweight China equities.. China test-fires ICBM for first time in decades Hezbollah has been provoked like never before by Israel and may be tempted to unleash its firepower Bond anomaly that twisted yields from US to Germany is NO more >>> German yield curve is latest to turn positive after US and UK >>> The 3m-10y Treasury yield spread has steepened by nearly 49 bps in the past 10 days ... that's the most aggressive 10-day move since March 2020 and before that, December 2010 France could get deficit to EU limit in five years, says Bank of France head Berkshire Hathaway still reducing Bank Of America Holdings Month-quarter end flow dominate now for rest of the week, USD sales most likely, risk trying to rally still - could be quite volatile (bonds, usd ) Bond Anomaly That Twisted Yields From US to Germany Is No More - Bloomberg France could get deficit to EU limit in five years, says Bank of France head ( msn.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 According to Xinhua, the PBoC plans to create new monetary policy tools to support the stock market. These will include establishing a… https://t.co/7rbBCnV5Zq " / X China cuts another key interest rate to boost economy ( yahoo.com ) China test-fires ICBM for first time in decades - BBC News Is it finally time for the silver price to shine? – The Armchair Trader Warren Buffett Moves: Berkshire Hathaway Reduces Bank Of America Holdings By $863M ( msn.com ) what does he know we don't ? Labour conference live: Pressure on Starmer as he faces union vote to reverse ‘cruel’ winter fuel payments cut | The Independent Nick Timiraos on X: "The Conference Board's labor market differential (jobs "plentiful" minus jobs "hard to get") narrowed again and is now at a level last seen in early 2017. It has dropped quite a bit in the last six months. https://t.co/M02ORLshW8 " / X Zelenskyy's victory plan sets Ukraine's terms in a desperate war against Russia ( yahoo.com ) Hezbollah has been provoked like never before by Israel and may be tempted to unleash its firepower ( msn.com ) Trump briefed on alleged assassination threats by Iran, his campaign says | Reuters Global rice markets are in crisis amid 'artificial' shortage ( cnbc.com ) Not good #silver #xagusd be patient, this time is different :-) #SILJ and the likes of #GDX still lagging actual XAU prices

PBoC’s surprise confirms shift in deflation fight >>> following in FED's path....reflate! 16 Fed speakers this week! is this enough ? >>> Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari supports another 50bp rate cut this year and Fed's Goolsbee sees 'many more' rate cuts ahead USD : WORTH LOOKING AT long-term charts, to remind ourselves how 'rangy' major pairs have been in recent years (yes USDJPY moved but..) >>> take #AUDUSD below as an example, key month, quarter-end close up next! GOLD keeps on trucking... SPX500 : chances are we go on making new highs, low vols, slow melt-up case, as markets know the FED will be more aggressive on any signs of softer macro data, most importantly employment now, so we kind of have a FED put, watch ADP, JOLTS, NFP - it is all that matters now, as rates come down, equities loving it, as long as we do not talk 'recession' ! >>>> The market is currently pricing in over 2.00% Fed rate cuts within 12 months, the most since the Financial Crisis. This implies a 100% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs Germany says it doesn't support a takeover of Commerzbank . “We have taken note of UniCredit’s actions. We do not support a takeover. We have communicated this to UniCredit,” a German FinMin official said. Barclays helped UniCredit quietly build Commerzbank stake, BBG reports >>> UniCredit to increase stake though EZ PMIs are boosting the case for faster and/or larger #ECB  cuts and the endorsement of a dovish bias.  *Interesting this morning: "In a sign of resignation, companies have shed staff at a rate not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020", meanwhile in UK, softer but still much stronger than europe UK S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 52.9, and finally US S&P GLOBAL Sep manuf PMI AT 47 GOLD remains on track to break its decade-long September curse with XAU currently up close to 5%, supported by FOMO leading to very small pullbacks, a bumper 50 bps rate cut, and a softer USD/Saxo UST's : very useful bond Thread below At 5,700, the S&P 500 is now over 300 points above above the highest 2024 year-end price target from WS strategists and some 15% above the average target (4,860), and its only end of Sep ! with an election ahead of us >>>> Citi turns more pro-cyclical in its global asset allocation , preferring to fully participate in this Fed-induced risk-friendly environment, even as it maintains its view of an eventual hard landing in the US.  Equities is moved to overweight, and US equities is moved to max overweight Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research, said he’s raising the odds of an “outright melt up” in stocks following the Federal Reserve’s 50 basis-point cut, but sees the Fed at risk of “overheating a warm economy" World’s Top Banks Back Nuclear Energy #URA Factbox-China rolls out broad rate cuts and other stimulus to spur weak economy ( msn.com ) PBoC beat mkt exp with a trio of RRR, policy rate and mortgage cuts, and an innovation in stock mkt support, echoing our view that Beijing is shifting approach on deflation. To exit deflation, more decisive housing and social welfare support is needed with central gov't leveraging Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA Euro zone business activity contracts unexpectedly - PMI ( rte.ie ) US business activity steady in September; price pressures pick up ( msn.com ) Growth softens across UK businesses in September, PMI shows ( msn.com ) Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for Sept 23 - Bloomberg (30) H2 Today News - September #3 | LinkedIn An Unprecedented Monetary Destruction Is Coming | Mises Institute Ole S Hansen on X: "#Gold remains on track to break its decade-long September curse with XAU currently up close to 5%, supported by FOMO leading to very small pullbacks, a bumper 50 bps rate cut, and a softer USD. https://t.co/kYOipORVTc " / X Alf on X: "The bond market is intimidating: it's full of jargon and practitioners tend to overcomplicate it. Today, let me share with you my Bond Market 101 approach. It will help you understand bond markets in <5 minutes. 1/" / X Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 on X: "These reports also suggest 🇪🇺 CPI Servces component was artificially boosted by OG in August. A downward normalization is expected in Sep., with headline likely falling below 2% (due to base effects). https://t.co/TCSSVq1LvU " / X UniCredit raises stake in Commerzbank to 21%, seeks approval to increase holding to 29.9% | Invezz Neel Kashkari Backed Fed’s Large Cut and Another Half-Point This Year - Bloomberg Fed's Goolsbee sees 'many more' rate cuts ahead ( msn.com ) World’s Top Banks Back Nuclear Energy | OilPrice.com Biden proposes banning Chinese software in 'smart cars' over security ( qz.com ) #AUDUSD

FED week! (in Chicago here), finally after 1y of speculation we will get the first 25bps cut of this cycle (possibly 50bps if you listen to Ip and Timiraos-WSJ late last week), but super core is still 4.2% !.. we have about 36bps priced in for this meeting, total 110+ for 2024 , we also have Brazil, SA and Japan this week, BoE meets Thursday, nothing expected/priced this time round, but much better probability they do something than not (growth softer, services inflation still too high, UK CPI Wed may influence) >>> MOST things trading off U.S rates right now, lower yields globally (bull steepner), USD, GOLD and risk overall holding up very well, it could be argued that 50bps cut by FED could question the why now, what do they know, low growth scenario, which makes the employment data most important still going forward USD stays soft big picture, but big supports around 1.1225 EURO, 1.3250 CABLE, 0.8400 CHF, 140JPY, 7.08 CNH >>> must treat with care this week Equity markets 'nearly priced to perfection', 50bps might actually worry the markets, what does FED know we don't type scenario (growth scare etc) Trump second assassination attempt, or an apparent attempt (FBI) Supercore inflation rose by 4.2% year-over-year in August and is now double the levels seen before 2020. Premature rate cuts may trigger a resurgence of inflation and worsen affordability/Thread, the dilemna! China has bought about a 3rd of the global gold market in 2024 /Thread, very poor set of economic data in China again >>> a lot of action finally in miners, junior miners #GDX #GDXJ #SILJ etc Fed, BOE and BOJ: It's a big week for central bank rate decisions ( cnbc.com ) Yen hits strongest level this year on speculation of big Fed rate cut - Nikkei Asia as much as we remain big USDJPY 'bears' for eventually 120-125JPY, be slightly careful this week Jim Bianco on X: "From the Fed's perspective, Friday's fed fund futures close was about the worst possible: 49% probability of a 50 bps cut/51% probability of a 25 bps cut (chart). This is literally one tick from maximum uncertainty (50/50). About half of Wall Street will be https://t.co/9SSRDRfVK6 " / X markets been gunning for any signs of a 50bps cu t Houthi missile reaches central Israel for first time, no injuries reported | Reuters Ukraine-Russia war live: Dozens injured in Kharkiv apartment strike as Lammy vows not to be ‘bullied by Putin’ ( msn.com ) China: German warships traversing Taiwan Strait pose 'security risk' ( yahoo.com ) Fed Interest-Rate Cut Hopes Lift Yen, Boost Bonds: Markets Wrap – BNN Bloomberg Slowdown in industrial activity leads to weakening of Chinese economy ( cityam.com ) Fed faces dilemma over 25 or 50 bps cut in Sept, WSJ’s Timiraos says ( msn.com ) Trump assassination attempt: Suspect in custody, ex-president safe ( cnbc.com ) Make Gold Great Again on X: "China has drained 29% of the global #gold market in 2024... so far! Or said differently: You have some gold, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? Watch it. Now, my straw reaches acroooooooss the room and drinks your gold. I... drink... your... GOLD! #GOLD https://t.co/EnnUH96Oaa " / X Ole S Hansen on X: "Speculators in metals made only a few changes in the week to 10 September, ahead of #gold's break to a fresh record, which supported 10% weekly gains in #silver and #platinum, the latter driven by demand from wrong-footed short sellers. Before the surge, the platinum short had https://t.co/r2VuKDiMPL " / X #GBP Rachel Reeves warned that cutting investment would damage ‘foundations of UK economy’ – business live ( msn.com ) BoE most likely to wait for Budget in Oct, and possibly act at the Nov meeting The Kobeissi Letter on X: "Something does not add up here: Supercore inflation rose by 4.5% year-over-year in August and is now double the levels seen before 2020. Supercore inflation is a key metric followed by the Fed which is calculated as core services less housing inflation. Supercore inflation has https://t.co/iRpLXVzZ06 " / X The US government is right to investigate Nvidia for alleged unfair practices | Max von Thun | The Guardian Boeing 'ready to get back to the table' amid machinist strike ( qz.com ) Biden Administration cracks down on Chinese e-commerce giants ( qz.com ) J.P. Morgan Puts an End to Brutal Work Hours ( finews.asia ) European governments offload €16bn of bailed-out bank stocks ( ft.com )

FED's Dudley suddenly talked 50bps, markets went on to price that risk last night! >>> GOLD breaking highs, Silver long way to go, Plat and Pall also on the move, great value still in the #GDX (previous metals on the move higher, while industrials struggle courtesy of China debacle - some argue China markets a good bet if Kamala wins - we shall see...) FED pricing 36bps for next week and a total of 115bps priced in for 2024 USDollar in big danger overall, USDJPY through 140 will send a few alarm bells across FX world, 1.1200-50+ EURUSD, 1.3200+ CABLE 0.6800+ AUDUSD etc very key medium to long-term Both the WSJ and FT reported that the U.S. rate cut decision will be a “line ball call” surprising markets that had assumed it would start off with a 25bpt move. Fed Fund futures imply a 43% chance it will be 50bpts up from 28% yesterday. The WSJ suggested the Fed is nervous about keeping rates too high for too long given that inflation and hiring are slowing down, though it didn’t quote any inside source #NVDA obviously matters a lot to markets in general : nicely explained here, see Gamma Thread below >>> it is about 20% of most Tech ETF's, is it 7% of NDX, passive money is now more than half of the market, when rest of the market buys or sells #NVDA it matters greatly ECB cut the depo rate by 25bp, as widely expected, and raised its core HICP inflation forecast for this and next year despite revising down GDP growth and wage growth and lowering its unit profit assumptions. The US Treasury on Thursday reported a $380 billion federal budget deficit for August , a massive shift from the $89 billion surplus in August 2023 BOJ's Tamura: Cannot say whether we could raise rates by year-end >>> having seen JPY firm some 10-15%, looks like they may get cold feet Brussels questions whether Starmer really wants a Brexit reset >>> don't mess his up Keir !! Flights are getting more expensive again as airlines scale back their growth plans Boeing workers going on strike after 96% vote for walkout The former NY Fed chief Dudley sees a strong case for a 50bp rate cut - report ( yahoo.com ) Putin says West will be fighting directly with Russia if it lets Kyiv use long-range missiles | Reuters Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski At a Joint Press Availability - United States Department of State SpotGamma on X: "Yesterday $NVDA traded 6.2mm contracts (11th largest since jan '20). The top 11 contracts by volume, all with 6 figure volume, were 9/13 exp. 8 of those 11 were calls. You have to go down to line 38 to find a contract > 2 weeks out. NVDA is ~7% of SPX/NDX and +20% of major https://t.co/FqEdPAjtj0 " / X America’s election is mired in conflict ( economist.com ) US budget deficit hits $380 billion in August – Firstpost Brussels questions whether Starmer really wants a Brexit reset – POLITICO Flights are getting more expensive as airlines scale back growth plans ( cnbc.com ) could they actually push him out.... JChoe on X: "Thread of actual quotes about Trump: "Trump is a fucking moron." - Rex Tillerson, Trump's first Secretary of State 1/6 https://t.co/v5GT6AQ5Cz " / X America’s election is mired in conflict ( economist.com ) JD Vance says he thinks Apple benefits from Chinese slave labor ( cnbc.com ) China to Cut Rates on $5 Trillion Mortgages as Soon as September - Bloomberg Warren Buffett's biggest stock buys and sells of 2024 ( qz.com ) Gilead Lenacapavir cut HIV infections by 96% in trial ( cnbc.com ) Larry Ellison's net worth approaches Jeff Bezos on Oracle's AI gains ( qz.com ) Boeing workers going on strike after 96% vote for walkout | Reuters JPMorgan Chase will limit bankers to 80 hours per week ( qz.com ) Reminds me of something!

Federal Reserve Waters down plan to Hike Capital Requirements for Big Banks amid Wall Street lobbying efforts (same in UK now too to it'll be global..) >>> some will argue about the FED's ''independence'' there >>> anyhow THIS and Jensen's bullish chat yesterday lifted #NVDA some 10%, which eventually lifted all corners of markets, turned JPY and CROSSJPY's etc >>> SPX500 was down 1.5% and finished up 2.5% et voilà #USDJPY traded below ''Yenmargeddon'' levels around 141.00...until the Jensen impact kicked in US  Core CPI inflation :   surprised to the upside, up to 0.28% m-o-m in Aug from 0.165% in July, no big 50bps cuts. Perhaps, the most absurd number in CPI is the cost of health insurance that has apparently declined 30% over the last 2 years >>> Core CPI inflation was unchanged at 3.2% Oracle is going nuclear over growing demand for AI data-centers, and that's not a metaphor for Larry Ellison's mood UK government designates data centers as Critical National Infrastructure IF you follow Warren, #OXY is now trading BELOW Warren Buffett’s cost basis Brussels explores Draghi option of extending up to €350bn in EU debt Without additional funding the European Commission fears debt obligations will hobble the bloc’s spending power... always involved more debt.. "It is clear: Crimea and Sevastopol are Ukraine" - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaking at the Crimea Platform Summit Federal Reserve Waters Down Plan To Hike Capital Requirements For Big Banks Amid Wall Street Lobbying Efforts – IJR and now same in UK : Regulator set to postpone UK bank capital reforms until at least January 2026 ( cityam.com ) Federal Reserve unveils toned-down banking regulation in victory for Wall Street | Watch ( msn.com ) Federal Reserve halves proposed capital requirement rise for largest US banks ( ft.com ) Asian chip-related stocks rally on renewed AI optimism after Nvidia CEO comments ( msn.com ) Brussels explores Draghi option of extending up to €350bn in EU debt ( ft.com ) Oracle to power 1GW datacenter with trio of nuclear reactors • The Register This could be HUGE Vale raises forecast for 2024 iron ore production amid weak prices - MINING.COM Singapore Takes a Bite Out of Crypto With New Rules ( finews.asia ) UK government designates data centers as Critical National Infrastructure - DCD ( datacenterdynamics.com ) Morgan Stanley Sees Euro Sliding 7% on Risk of Big ECB Cuts ( yahoo.com ) UBS: Harris Outperforms Trump in Debate ( finews.asia ) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on X: "This is the annual gold production of the world's second-largest precious metals miner.   The lowest level in more than 20 years, according to its most recent report.   From this perspective, today’s environment closely resembles the 1970s.   Back then, major miners shifted https://t.co/OpWbcnGqvN " / X Israel-Gaza war live: UN chief condemns ‘violations’ of humanitarian law after six Unrwa staff killed in Israeli airstrike ( msn.com ) Ukraine war latest: Russia claims capture of Donetsk Oblast village near Vuhledar, Kyiv doesn't confirm ( msn.com )

Last night, Trump was as bad as Biden was in first debate. Trump's point about immigrants eating people's pets really did it for me, Taylor Swift has more followers on social media than there are voters in the U.S. Harris might have won de debate last night, but unlikely to win Senate, yet anyway, so the campaign rages on for few more weeks! >>> initial market reaction, UST rally, JPY higher (BoJ too), risk hesitate, GOLD up, crypto down a bit >>> would watch out for for those U.S financial warnings together with car giants The Fed backpedals and unveils a scaled-back proposal for bank capital requirements >>> is this why ?? JPM warns of recession (de facto kind of earnings downgrade), GS profit warning, ALLY warns of consumer defaults and few other banking stocks slid yesterday, BMW earlier in the day yesterday too BP's market capitalization has now plunged to the same level as during the worst point of the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill , around $85bn - pretty amazing The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if inflation moves in line with its forecast , policymaker Junko Nakagawa said, signalling that last month's market rout has not derailed the bank's plan to hike borrowing costs steadily BYD raised its annual sales target, reported Morgan Stanley in a note dated September 9 . The company’s previous guidance for this year was set at 3.6 million units. BYD recently increased its 2024 annual sales target to 4 million units >>> explosive growth XPT :  WPIC forecasts 2024 shortfall of more than 1 million ounces Barnier: “I regret the UK left. I still don’t understand it, neither in terms of British interests, nor European It’s lose-lose . Nobody, not even Farage, [has been able to show any] added value of Brexit The door is open. The UK knows the specifications & knows the conditions” If h says so...Elon Musk said today that America is going bankrupt extremely quickly Spain’s Sánchez calls on EU to ‘reconsider’ Chinese EV tariffs The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.5 points in August to 91.2, erasing all of July’s gain Inflation: Consumer price increases expected to slow in August as investors eye September rate cut ( yahoo.com ) Small Business Economics Trends | NFIB Ukraine-Russia war latest: Huge drone attack hits Moscow region as Kremlin claims control of Ukrainian towns ( msn.com ) Trump v Harris debate live: Trump gives different answers on second debate - after performance 'as bad as Biden' | US News | Sky News The Fed backpedals and unveils a scaled-back proposal for bank capital requirements ( yahoo.com ) BOJ policymaker signals readiness to raise rates if inflation on track | Reuters Big bank stocks slide as executives temper earnings and digest less onerous capital increases ( yahoo.com ) JPMorgan stock drops after President Pinto's cautious comments ( msn.com ) Goldman Sachs expects $400M writeoff in latest hit from consumer business exit (NYSE:GS) | Seeking Alpha BMW shares plunge after vehicle recalls for brake system fix ( msn.com ) VW Scraps Three-Decades-Old German Jobs Pledge to Cut Costs ( msn.com ) Apple tax: Ireland to decide what it will do with 13 billion euros ( cnbc.com ) Commerzbank shares up after UniCredit buys stake from German government ( cnbc.com ) BYD raises its annual sales target: Morgan Stanley report ( teslarati.com ) Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after Trump debate ( cnbc.com ) Platinum Set for Record Deficit But Prices Yet to Recover - Bloomberg The strange case of Boris Johnson’s nuclear consultancy ( prospectmagazine.co.uk ) Michel Barnier’s new secret EU mission – POLITICO ‘America is going bankrupt’: Elon Musk issues a warning as interest on US debt was equal to 76% of income tax collected in June — and is expected to exceed $1.14 trillion this year ( msn.com ) Brazil wildfires worsened by 'mega drought,' extreme heat – DW – 08/30/2024 Swedish Court Sends Ex-CEO of Swedbank to Prison | OCCRP

I respect Le Pen’s ideologies, says Barnier as he calls French borders ‘sieves’ Germany to tighten border controls after stabbing >>> Deputy federal chairman of the Federal Police Union: 'The crisis in Germany's security is a direct consequence of Schengen's ineffective policies. Schengen's inability to manage migration effectively has put Germany's safety at stake. Germany must realize the current failure of Schengen and either make a concerted effort to return to the current legal situation or terminate Schengen.’ Ukraine-Russia war latest: Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits nine Russian regions including Moscow Draghi’s report risks colliding with EU political reality >>> not the 'whatever it takes' from 2012 Yellen 'probably done' when Biden ends term, may meet Chinese counterpart soon >>> Who will clean this up ? By issuing nearly $2T of T-Bills, Janet Yellen succeeded in suppressing bond volatility in an election year, now - this paper has to be rolled over #duration Biggest US Banks’ Capital hike chopped in half in latest plan by Regulators >>> ''shaky Florida condo market'' and commercial real estate market the reason ? Falling interest rates in and of itself is positive especially positive for cyclical stocks, JPM is uncomfortable about the growth environment.  Its preferred trade in anticipation of Fed rate cuts is small vs. large caps MS leaves its baseline view of a 25bps Fed rate cut in Sept unchanged after the Aug employment data, labour market is cooling, but not perilously so, appears to be shared by FOMC members, as evident from the speeches of NY Fed President Williams and Fed Board Governor Waller Chinese refiners are reportedly purchasing approximately 16 million barrels of oil monthly to refill the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve , taking advantage of the current low oil prices, according to Bloomberg's insights from Energy Aspects EU top court rules Apple must pay €13bn in back taxes Car giants are being forced to confront some hard truths over the EV transition US election debate: Prosecutor Kamala Harris takes on angry Donald Trump in TV showdown ( yahoo.com ) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Massive Ukrainian drone attack hits nine Russian regions including Moscow ( msn.com ) I respect Le Pen’s ideologies, says Barnier as he calls French borders ‘sieves’ ( msn.com ) Israeli missile strike on Gaza safe zone 'kills and wounds dozens' | Evening Standard Draghi’s report risks colliding with EU political reality | Radio Schuman | Euronews Yellen 'probably done' when Biden ends term, may meet Chinese counterpart soon | Reuters Palantir Stock Rises. S&P 500 Addition Just One Piece of Good News. ( msn.com ) Apple's iPhone 16 event starts 'a historic week' for tech giant: analysts ( qz.com ) Phone 16 unveiled with AI-powered features « Euro Weekly News Apple loses EU court battle over 13 billion euro tax bill in Ireland ( msn.com ) Javier Blas on X: "COLUMN: The end of Big Oil's Big Bonanza. For the last 2½ years, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and BP have showered investors with multi-billion dollar buybacks. The pace of those share repurchases is now set to slowdown. #OOTT @Opinion https://t.co/f2OQnkezmP " / X Biggest US Banks’ Capital Hike Chopped in Half in Latest Plan by Regulators ( yahoo.com ) is this why ? Florida's condo market looks shaky. Could the bottom fall out? ( yahoo.com ) John Devaney on X: "There are tens of billions of defaulted or soon to default Class A and B office loans in Democrat run city's in the US such as San Fran, Philly, Chicago, Denver, St. Louis and parts of NYC This is as bad as the financial crisis in those cities. I know, as I'm a leading market https://t.co/hG5OBQ82KV " / X >>> Hopefully this won’t play out as badly as he thinks - huh Goldman Sachs to post $400M hit in third quarter over consumer business ( cnbc.com ) Battery maker Northvolt to cut costs, explore partnerships | Reuters tough place to be at the moment Autos: Car giants forced to confront hard truths over EV transition ( cnbc.com ) Russian investigation confirms Putin’s son was born in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Germany to tighten border controls after stabbing - BBC News The Swiss live in socio-economic bubbles - SWI swissinfo.ch

Chinese inflation data : producer prices fell by 1.8% yoy , more than expected, driving the disinflationary trend OIL MARKET: First day of the annual APPEC oil conference in Singapore, and the commentary so far is rather downbeat, disinflationary trend /Thread FED Sep meeting : the doves will have had a reasonably weak NFP to call for 50bps cut, payroll trend weakening, for now our best case is 3 or 4 25bps cut (as, risk is a 50bps cut is too 'hard landing') >>> overall big distribution of possible economic outcomes with U.S election and other geopolitics in months ahead, soft commodities, crude, China, USD-debt relationships + long positioning in equity markets overall >>> Week's focus is Wednesday U.S inflation data, this weel markets will look for a relief risk rally on soft ish U.S inflation Donald Trump Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on countries that conduct business in currency other than the US Dollar, adding a new pillar to his tariff platform US NFP : 4.2% , below consensus at 142k, together with downward revisions of 86k in prior two months, with more of the downgrade concentrated in June. U.S personal savings rate now down to 2.9%, lowest since June 2022, average over last 30years is 5.7%...persistent inflation taking its toll Eurozone Q2 GDP:  Eurozone economy grew less than exp in the Q2, rising 0.2% from the prev quarter – less than the 0.3% initially reported >>> Draghi to Unveil Plan Aimed at Curing EU’s Single Market Malaise Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid , on path to ‘soft landing’ with no meaningful layoffs Crypto sees weekly outflow of $600 billion, the 2nd largest weekly outflow in history >>>> just another leveraged/risk on/short vol play... The exact difference in electricity consumption between a ChatGPT query and a Google search can vary, but generally, ChatGPT searches use more energy due to the greater computational power involved in running large language models USDollar likely to do somewhat better over next few weeks, as liquidity diminishes, risk likely to 'struggle' overall >>>> 1.1200/00 EURUSD, 1.3200/50 CABLE tops, similarly AUDUSD 0.6800+ etc and lows in USDCHF around 0.8400 CHF, to get bullish USD would watch 50dmas, if they fail to hold like CABLE around 1.2950 area, then we can see a bigger counter move on USD Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move ( msn.com ) Kamala Harris' Silicon Valley backers want more H-1B visas ( qz.com ) Kamala Harris faces crucial debate as polls hint at slipping momentum ( ft.com ) Donald Trump doubles down on his tariff ideas before New York business leaders ( yahoo.com ) Trump Pledges ‘100% Tariff’ for Countries That Shun Dollar - Bloomberg Trump, who has long embraced protectionist trade policies, said the dollar has been “under major siege” for 8yrs. China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa discussed de-dollarization at a summit last year. By contrast, Trump has said he wants the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency, a pledge he renewed at Saturday’s rally. US bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.2 billion in longest run of net outflows ( yahoo.com ) Japan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi cites BOJ's Ueda saying more rate hikes ahead | Forexlive ChatGPT's power consumption: ten times more than Google's | heise online Javier Blas on X: "OIL MARKET: First day of the annual APPEC oil conference in Singapore, and the commentary so far is rather downbeat. Oil traders Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor are all signaling very well supplied markets. Trafigura, more typically a bull, sees risk of $60-a-barrel "soon" | #OOTT" / X Yellen says U.S. economy remains solid, heading toward 'soft landing' ( cnbc.com ) China's consumer prices rise in August, PPI stuck in deflation | Reuters Draghi to Unveil Plan Aimed at Curing EU’s Single Market Malaise ( yahoo.com ) Teen vaping hits 10-year low ( qz.com ) good trend Credit Suisse to Close Historic Branch in Zurich ( finews.asia )