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  • FED pricing 2 + a little for 2024 / GOOG and MSFT electricity bill / The market talks are all about J.D Vance

    Meet J.D. Vance , Trump’s VP pick - see reports below Donald Trump has rewritten his keynote speech for the Republican National Convention this week as he changes his election strategy to focus on a message of national unity after an attempt on his life FED speak and pricing : Powell said recent data has boosted confidence that inflation is heading toward the Fed’s 2% goal >>> markets have fully priced in two 25-bp reductions for 2024, with implied odds of a third reaching about 60% Since the Presidential debate, US 30-year Treasuries are 10bps wider, and higher in yield . That's with softer economic data driving 2s thirty basis points lower in yield, pricing in rate cuts (bull steepening) A company sued a bank arguing that because Covid ICO loans were 80% ICO-guaranteed, they were under the impression that they only had to repay 20%, and he company won the case ! China’s carbon dioxide emissions are on track for a first annual decline since 2016 , a signal the world’s top polluter may have already peaked its output of greenhouse gases. "Xi Jinping’s long quest for technology-driven “high-quality growth” is actually starting to pay off."/BBG Google and Microsoft now each consume more power than some fairly big countries BlackRock assets under management hit all-time high of $10.6tn Precious metals going about their business and pushing higher Markets : coincidence or not, SPX500 gave up a little bit of ground when Vance was announced yesterday, long-end on the move, USDollar a must follow clearly if Trump was to follow up on 'pushing USD down is good for exports' etc. A lot of rate cuts priced in with FED too, so markets 'may struggle' going into earnings, which really kick-off next week Meet J.D. Vance, Trump’s VP pick: Hawk on Israel, critic of foreign aid - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East Venture capitalist, embraced populist politics garnered national attention, #Rumble where he owns a 20% stake went up 20% yesterday, Trump Media jumped 30% or so too, he often talkied about being open to 'devalue' the USD to increase exports, a fan of PLTR too, and eliminating EV tax credits etc, a choice that will divide many folks and business community, and  raise alarm bells among more traditional Republicans on Wall Street who are worried Donald Trump's vice-presidential pick could shape the party platform for years to come Trump’s VP Pick Vance Says China Is the ‘Biggest Threat’ to US - Bloomberg Vance floats crypto plan - POLITICO Trump assassination attempt spawns shirts, mugs, and trading cards ( qz.com ) Biden: 'Bulls-eye' remark was a mistake in light of Trump shooting ( cnbc.com ) Top EU leaders will boycott meetings hosted by Hungary's Orbán after his outreach to Russia, China ( msn.com ) Powell indicates Fed won't wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates ( cnbc.com ) The Fed shouldn't cut rates at all this year as the US is poised for a 2nd half rebound, macro strategist says ( msn.com ) >>> the other view Apple iPhone sales surge in India as company pivots from China ( qz.com ) BlackRock's ETF business just keeps growing, but the search for revenue goes on ( cnbc.com ) Is Toyota on the road to success or steering towards its own downfall? – The Armchair Trader Google and Microsoft now each consume more power than some fairly big countries | TechRadar Top Polluter China’s Shrinking Emissions Put Carbon Peak in Play - Bloomberg >>> China went through this to be less dependent on oil and gas from overseas, brought energy prices costs lower , helped by also hydro power Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 Bloomberg: "Xi Jinping’s long quest for technology-driven “high-quality growth” is actually starting to pay off." Good article on the success of China's technology push, but very confused about the impact on rebalancing demand. https://t.co/Gw0CGkaDKc " / X Venezuela is experiencing days of turmoil over the prospect of political change | International | EL PAÍS English ( elpais.com ) France’s Attal secures way forward with liberals after election debacle – POLITICO Brexit is back as Starmer’s Europe minister heads to Brussels ( msn.com ) Protests will spread if European cities don’t address overtourism ( cnbc.com )

  • Increased probability of Trump victory in Nov / China GDP miss / USDJPY top in place on BoJ intervention last week

    Donald Trump is not letting an attempted assassination derail his plans to attend the Republican National Convention, saying that he can’t allow a “shooter” to change his schedule  >>> odds at quoted by Polymarket. Anything else than a result Trump victory in November now feels unlikely, good for risk, deregulations, steeper (30y yields making highs) >>> US 2s/30s yield spread briefly turns positive for 1st time since Jan, Trump bullish risk, deregulations etc + bull steepener #USDJPY seems approx $15bn were sold last week after U.S CPI, clearly BoJ will need to move on rates to sustain move BP has taken an enormous risk by betting the farm on booming global demand for oil and gas as far out as the late 2030s, and retreating drastically from renewables and clean-tech investment China GDP up 4.7% yoy in Q2, previous 5.3%, expected 5.1% An influx of cheap nickel supply from Indonesia has all but killed off Western Australia’s long-running nickel sector #GOLD 2400+ continues to be well supported, next big wave buying should take markets towards $2700 Zermatt rail link interrupted for weeks after severe flooding in Switzerland Apple, Microsoft, and Meta CEOs on Donald Trump assassination attempt ( qz.com ) Trump shooting at rally sends Bitcoin up, traders to gold and Swiss franc ( qz.com ) Trump-victory trades to swell after shooting, investors say ( msn.com ) ‘It’s where we are politically’: Trump shooting takes US to the brink ( ft.com ) Trump Market Reaction: ‘Trump Trade’ Ramps Up After Rally Attack - Bloomberg Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 on X: "BofA: Economics: Inflation box ticked, focus shifts to growth Equities: Stars are aligning for cyclical It’s an earnings-driven market: 2Q earnings to be crucial https://t.co/I1k127ipzE " / X Week ahead: Politics in focus as volatility set to make a return ( fxstreet.com ) Just Stop Oil was right all along about BP ( telegraph.co.uk ) Robert Friedland: No Rational Price for Copper as "Essentially Infinite" Demand Meets Short Supply | INN ( investingnews.com ) Indonesian onslaught wipes out Australia’s nickel industry - MINING.COM The end of stagnation for Europe and the UK | Vanguard UK Professional Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 | World Gold Council Live news: France ‘dangerously exposed’ as budget deficit grows, warns national auditor ( ft.com ) What happens now in crunch week for French politics? ( thelocal.fr ) Patrick Zweifel on X: "1/ Chinese activity data for June generally came in below expectations and slowed, as did GDP growth, which fell to 4% q/q ann. in Q2 from 6.6% in Q1. Taken together, these 2 quarters still point to growth in line with the Chinese authorities' target of around 5%. https://t.co/BTNwPKxMnD " / X A brief pause after a strong gold rally? ( vaneck.com ) Ablass in Zug: Seba belastet 500 Fr. „Off-boarding fees“ – Inside Paradeplatz Zermatt rail link interrupted for weeks after severe flooding in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch More and more Swiss are living abroad - SWI swissinfo.ch #USDJPY >>> can go towards 150 and still be in up trend..

  • China trade surplus 24y highs / Biden does it again / Ai trade under more scrutiny / U.S PPI and Mich today / / Weaker U.S CPI, BIG rotation in markets yesterday

    Wild rotation yesterday in Eq markets (start of a turn?) : The losers became the winners, #KRE #IWM #REITs #IWD #EMG and #JPY >> all up vs #USD #IWF (growth), #SPY (large caps big techs) down, after the 1st 'true' negative CPI since May 2020 The AI trade has come under greater investor scrutiny as uncertainty about return on AI investments of hyperscalers – Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft – emerges/GS Very good in depth article from the FT -How UBS fell out with Switzerland’s establishment after rescuing Credit Suisse US, Germany disrupted Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO, China and Belarus held symbolic military exercise... and Biden loses his train of thought again, calls Harris ‘Vice President Trump’ in solo press conf And, Strong response by China’s to NATO accusing it of being "a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine”: "The US should reflect on the root cause of the crisis [...] The US must never expect China to pay for the mistakes they have made." Bank of Korea holds rates, seen weighing when to cut rates and BoJ sold approx $15bn #USDJPY yesterday after weaker U.S CPI  and Nikkei reports of them checking #EURJPY rates >>> again is they mean business they will need to hike rates too China posts largest trade surplus in nearly two years , as exports surge; imports weaken - largest in nearly 24years, nearly $100bn BofA: Another month of soft retail spending, Retail sales probably declined in June On NATO's doorstep, China and Belarus hold symbolic military exercise ( lemonde.fr ) US, Germany disrupted Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO, CNN reports ( yahoo.com ) and with this, seems quite naive stance... Biden news conference carries high stakes as campaign teeters ( cnbc.com ) Biden mistakenly calls Zelensky ‘Putin’ at Nato summit - BBC News The Artificial Intelligence (AI) trade has been the most popular secular theme over the past 18 months, according to Goldman Sachs (GS) , citing client conversations. However, caution has emerged around the trade recently.  GS notes its four-phase framework for the AI trade: Phase 1) Nvidia, being the clearest near-term AI beneficiary, 2) AI infrastructure providers, including semis, hyperscalers, utility stocks, 3) companies that monetize AI, mainly software and IT services, and, 4) companies with the biggest potential to grow earnings with AI adoption Mining vs AI: What’s wrong with this picture? - MINING.COM Japanese yen firms, USDJPY slides amid intervention talk, rate cut hopes ( msn.com ) Bank of Korea holds rates, seen weighing when to cut rates ( msn.com ) China posts largest trade surplus in nearly two years, as exports surge; imports weaken ( msn.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸👹Ugly 30y UST auction! It tailed by 2.2bps WI, the largest since Jan 2023, despite a spike in direct bidders to a high since Dec 2014‼️ ➡️Indicates duration rejection at 4.405% yield ➡️ Shows the need to appeal to indirect bidders to fund the U.S. deficit‼️ https://t.co/ys5t0tpk1Y " / X How UBS fell out with Switzerland’s establishment after rescuing Credit Suisse As Switzerland’s biggest global bank, UBS would be hit hardest by the proposed capital rules, which require increased levels for foreign subsidiaries. The Swiss parliament will vote on introducing them next year. While the finance ministry has provided little detail on how the capital requirements would be calculated, analysts have estimated it could be an additional $15bn to $25bn for UBS. Keller-Sutter has said such forecasts are “plausible”, much to the dismay of UBS executives who complained that they had been provided with no information to draw up their own analysis. GM, Stellantis and Volvo get Biden's help in building EVs ( qz.com ) Archegos' Bill Hwang Found Guilty in Fraud Trial ( finews.asia ) Apple will have to share its 'tap to pay' tech with rivals, EU says ( qz.com ) Tesla reportedly delaying its robotaxi reveal until October - The Verge Which October ? Uganda Is Latest African Nation Eying Gold as a Currency Shield - Bloomberg How to scrub personal information from Google Search ( cnbc.com )

  • BoE's Pill hawkish, UK GDP firmer / FED pricing update / Macron urges broad Rep coalition / NATO steps up a gear / Schumer opens door to new candidate

    NATO says its missile defence base in Poland operational now. The White House says U.S.-made F-16 jets are on their way to Ukraine — over a year after Ukraine first asked its allies for advanced fighter jets. Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says French elections: Macron urges lawmakers to build broad 'republican' coalition to break deadlock. In a letter to the French, President Emmanuel Macron calls on 'republican' forces to 'build a solid majority, necessarily plural.' Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is privately signaling to donors that he's open to a Democratic presidential ticket that isn't led by President Biden , Axios Volkswagen on Tuesday warned it may close the Brussels site of its luxury brand Audi due to a sharp drop in demand for high-end electric cars that has hit Europe's top carmaker , forcing it to cut its margin target for the current year In its annual "Energy Outlook" report, BP has revised higher all its forecasts for oil, natural gas and coal consumption At 21.5%, the average credit card interest rate in the US is over 7 percentage points higher than the historical average Microsoft is quitting the board of OpenAI amid growing anti-trust scrutiny China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts . We no longer need to model for when cell prices drop far enough to decarbonize road transport. That day is here Bank of England chief economist points to ‘persistence’ of underlying inflation . Huw Pill’s comments cause traders to scale back expectations of UK interest rate cuts, and this morning's UK GDP was stronger than expected at 0.4% in May, good news The #VIX has averaged 13.8 so far this year, lowest volatility since 2017 FED pricing : substantial cuts priced for while, right now about -6-cuts priced in before end of 2024 and another one later on in 2026 >>> they just get pushed a little further out/brought back closer depending on data >>> with the VIX where it is, it continues to bring systematic buying in Eq, weekly liquidities feeding mainly through to the Mag7 or 8 F-16 transfers to Ukraine are underway, White House says ( axios.com ) Russia issues arrest warrant for Yulia Navalnaya – DW – 07/09/2024 Poland must prepare army for full-scale conflict, army chief says | Reuters NATO says its missile defence base in Poland operational now ( yahoo.com ) French elections: Macron urges lawmakers to build broad 'republican' coalition to break deadlock ( lemonde.fr ) Schumer open to dumping Biden on 2024 Democratic ticket ( axios.com ) Saudi Arabia ‘Veiled Threat’ to G7 Over Russia Assets - Bloomberg Bank of England chief economist points to ‘persistence’ of underlying inflation ( ft.com ) UK economy jumps back with 0.4% growth as Chancellor Rachel Reeves hails start of 'decade of national renewal' ( msn.com ) The Tories betrayed Britain – and too many still refuse to admit it ( telegraph.co.uk ) What's to blame for Tory woes? Boris Johnson and Brexit ( cityam.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/5 SCMP on a recent meeting between Premier Li Qiang and business leaders: "Stressing that China’s economy was in “stable operation”, Li admitted that factors affecting growth are “more complex than before” and that the difficulties... https://t.co/wbsacHYbXz via @scmpnews" / X Federal Reserve's Lisa Cook Foresees Swift Response To Unemployment Surge Following Jerome Powell's Testimony Before Congress: 'We Are Very Attentive' ( msn.com ) Fed's Structural Dovish Orientation: Why Trump May Not Need to Rock the Boat | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Volkswagen may close Brussels factory as low EV demand hits Audi | Reuters Party over country: Democrats stick with Biden, knowing he is unfit to serve ( thehill.com ) Energy Outlook | Energy economics | Home ( bp.com ) China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts - Bloomberg China building twice as much wind and solar power as rest of world – report | China | The Guardian Archegos Founder, Charged With Manipulating ViacomCBS Stock, Found Guilty of Fraud ( msn.com ) #GBPUSD #GBPCHF #GBP

  • Fed slightly dovish / More Dems fear Biden can't win / Buffet's solution on deficit / France's left jostle to lead new govt

    Easing too soon could 'harm inflation progress', says Powell, overall dovish text given levels of rates currently, in any case a lot of cuts priced in up to 2025 already..not quite the -8- cuts Citi was talking about yesterday but close More Democrats in US Congress say they fear Biden can't win Saudis Warned G-7 against Russia seizures with Debt Sale threat Goldman’s Head of Global Equity Research, Jim Covello, is pretty negative Gen AI European automakers are facing downside risk to pricing, a reversal from the pandemic period where automakers gained abnormal pricing power.  In both the Europe and US, auto affordability is at decade lows, and automakers have already started making concessions, leading Morgan Stanley to downgrade the sector from In-Line to Cautious Eli Lilly's Mounjaro is more effective at weight loss than Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, study finds Buffet : "I could end the deficit in five minutes,” he told CNBC’s Becky Quick in a 2011 interview. “You just pass a law that says that any time there's a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.” Dyson to cut nearly one third of UK workforce, backed Brexit and left for Singapore.. More Democrats in US Congress say they fear Biden can't win | Reuters France’s leftwing parties jostle to lead new government France’s leftwing parties jostle to lead new government Nouveau Front Populaire bloc won the most parliamentary seats in snap election but fell short of majority Almost half Tory members want merger with Reform UK, poll suggests, as leadership infighting escalates – UK politics live ( msn.com ) Testimony by Chair Powell on the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress - Federal Reserve Board FTSE 100 and European markets lower, US mixed as traders look to Powell speech ( yahoo.com ) US Inflation Expectations Fall for Second Month in NY Fed Survey - Bloomberg Options Talk - Episode 22 - plain shares versus combo with options | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Warren Buffett said that he could end America's deficit problem 'in five minutes' — here's what he would do ( yahoo.com ) Saudis Warned G-7 Against Russia Seizures With Debt Sale Threat ( msn.com ) Why the G7 can no longer pretend to rule the world | Middle East Eye BYD will build an EV factory in Turkey to dodge EU tariffs ( qz.com ) Goldman Sachs Research Newsletter GS - GEN AI: TOO MUCH SPEND, TOO LITTLE BENEFIT? Financial Times: UBS und Bern völlig verkracht – Inside Paradeplatz Mounjaro is better for weight loss than Ozempic: study ( qz.com ) Dyson job cuts: One third of vacuum company's UK workforce to go - BBC News Vanke Warns of $1.2 Billion Loss on China’s Housing Slump ( yahoo.com ) AS POLITICAL PARTIES FALL, GOLD AND SILVER WILL RISE - VON GREYERZ AG The French left faces a reality check over 90% wealth tax and lavish spending ( msn.com ) sounds great.. 'Blowout' in French borrowing costs still to come: David Roche ( cnbc.com ) Andrew Neil on X: "So here is the composition of the New National Assembly from which President Macron is expected to create some sort of Coalition (good luck with that): The biggest group is the Left Alliance (NPF) which has 182 seats. But that is made up of four distinct parties: •  Mélenchon’s https://t.co/JXHsmexPnf " / X

  • J Powell kicks off semi-annual testimony, ahead of U.S CPI on Thursday / #BTC / #GDX / #NIKKEI new highs

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be testifying on Capitol Hill . He'll first appear before the Senate Banking Committee and then, on Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee as part of his semiannual policy report to Congress >>> set-up for a softer U.S CPI on Thursday, GS Core Inflation Tracker is now below 2% US financial conditions are now the easiest in 27 year s/Thread Nikkei new highs, semis leading the charge. After the 10% correction in MSCI China over the past six weeks, investors will be looking at China’s July policy meeting s – the Third Plenum in mid-month and the Politburo meeting at end of the month – for the growth outlook for the remainder of 2024/GS is comparatively optimistic about the meeting outcomes. Relative to the S&P 500, the S&P 500 Momentum Index has surged to a new cycle high and is at its highest since August 2000 >>> Goldman Sachs warns that everyone, including itself, is too bullish on the stock market, which could mean a correction is coming. July 17 has historically marked a local top heading into a weaker August! The German government owns around $2 billion in bitcoi n — and it’s freaking out crypto investors #BTC Corn plummets to lowest price since November 2020 China EV maker BYD to build $1-bln plant in Turkey >>> back door deal into Europe #GDX outperformed #XAUUSD last week , catch-up time, #SILJ in the frame too BP is telegraphing a rather weak quarterly result Equity markets : overall plenty of calls of 'overdone, concentration of risk never been higher, Mag7 or Mag8 momentum crazy, a 10pct correction is coming', for now none of it matters, as financial conditions too loose and we know where liquidities are going... seasonality maybe now during summer may come into play, particularly on U.S elections expectations change and/or FED expectations for 2024 changing, France heading for a long coalition period of talks, neither far left nor far right likely to be involved.. Powell on Capitol Hill, small business optimism: What to watch ( yahoo.com ) What the Federal Reserve should put on the Jackson Hole agenda ( ft.com ) Citi: Fed Could Cut Interest Rates By 200 Points Through 2025 ( yahoo.com ) BOJ Sounds Out Market Players Before Finalizing Bond-Buying Cuts - Bloomberg Politics, Payrolls and Policy: a trader's week ahead playbook ( thearmchairtrader.com ) Yardeni says this slow-motion meltup has further to run and could see their 6000 SPX target for 2025 being too conservative.  "Eric, Joe, and I aren’t raising our year-end target for the S&P 500 just yet. But we are learning to live with the S&P 500 outpacing even our bullish projections. It did so last year: Our year-end target of 4600 was reached on July 31, 2023....Now we are rethinking whether our current projections of 6000 by the end of 2025, 6500 by the end of 2026, and 8000 by the end of the decade might be too conservative. The market may be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we expected." Germany owns $2 billion in bitcoin (BTC). It's freaking out investors ( cnbc.com ) Labour to seek joint declaration with EU on wide-ranging security pact | Foreign policy | The Guardian Read Biden’s full letter to congressional Democrats declining to leave the 2024 presidential race | PBS News The Kobeissi Letter on X: "US financial conditions are now the easiest in 27 years. They are even easier than when the Fed started raising interest rates in March 2022. Since then, the Fed has hiked rates by 5.5% and shrunk its balance sheet by $1.7 trillion. Meanwhile, the US economy has begun to slow https://t.co/kAXoCdrB3x " / X Rachel Reeves says being chancellor ‘smashing one of last glass ceilings’ ( msn.com ) Wind power out-produces coal for first time ever ( qz.com ) BP warns of Q2 profit hit from weak refining margins, oil trading ( msn.com ) China EV maker BYD to build $1-bln plant in Turkey | Reuters Credit Suisse no longer exists as legal entity in Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Boeing to plead guilty to a felony in 2 deadly 737 Max crashes ( qz.com )

  • France : coalition next up / Big week for Biden and Dems / UK Labour's plans / S&P nearly 50% techs now

    'It's about to get wild': Congress returns for pivotal week as Democrats sweat over Biden France's election result : no group has a mandate to govern , biggest turnout since 1981, Melenchon makes a lot of noise (which markets would clearly not like, lot more debts, OAT's down etc), Macron will call for some to join him, let's see, strange quirk of French election results saw Le Pen's RN finish third whilst taking 37% of the popular vote whilst the 'winning' left alliance took just 25% & Macron party just 23% >>> wouldn't be surprised to see a more 'centrist coalition' with an absolute majority, as the extremes left and right do not have enough to stop it happening UK's Labour government not in, but less confrontational and closer to Europe in some specific areas, defence, research, biotech and so on >>> it clearly improves political stability for the UK, which IS a clear winner for outside investors to participate in the 'reset', probably support a rerating of part of the UK equities The UST 10y yields continue to trade inside the perfect trend channel that has been in place since April highs. Note we are below the 200dma (although it is basically flat). Also worth pointing out is the trend line from late Dec Bank of Japan signals progress in wage, price hikes Nato allies to pledge €40bn for Ukraine amid domestic turmoil. Washington summit to set out limited support package for Kyiv as allies grapple with domestic political turmoil While the 206,000 increase in June non-farm payrolls beat consensus expectations of 190,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4% previously BofA: We believe that it is prudent to hedge into CPI, especially with the 2Q earnings season starting this Friday Almost half of the S&P 500 is now essentially tech French Leftist Leader Melenchon Says Left 'Ready To Govern' | Barron's ( barrons.com ) Market will definitely NOT like this scenario France faces political deadlock after surprise left-wing vote surge blocks far right’s path to power – The Irish Times France shifts to the left, but risk of policy paralysis looms ( msn.com ) Ils ont tout raté sur l'élection française (et ce n'est pas fini) - Blick 'It's about to get wild': Congress returns for pivotal week as Democrats sweat over Biden ( msn.com ) NFP: What are analysts saying By Investing.com Growth is UK’s ‘national mission’, Rachel Reeves declares ( ft.com ) New PM to make first visit to Stormont - BBC News Bank of Japan signals progress in wage, price hikes ( msn.com ) Has the market fully priced in a UK Labour victory? – The Armchair Trader Nope, nowhere near IMHO Nato allies to pledge €40bn for Ukraine amid domestic turmoil ( ft.com ) PM Modi's Russia Visit: Key Talks On Ukraine War With President Putin - Oneindia News Migration of Credit Suisse Clients: The Biggest Challenge Comes Last ( finews.asia ) JPMorgan Chase might start charging for checking accounts ( qz.com ) Shell takes $2 billion charge on biofuels, refinery operations ( qz.com ) Mass tourism protesters squirt water at Barcelona tourists - BBC News happened in other places in europe lately..Local folks fed up with cost of living, unaffordable housing etc EURUSD has done nothing for best part of 18months, follow the break when it comes

  • #BTC <200dma, crypto down / UK elections, as expected / Biden / U.S NFP & France 2nd round up next

    U.S NFP this afternoon, expected to be on soft side UK election results, as expected... Labour gains big majority of approx 410 seats out of the 650 , LibDems did well, Reforms got a few seats, Green 4 seats best ever, nothing that should shake financial markets >>> they will push for the UK as a centre of research excellence, working on commercially viable solutions, biotech, science, R&D and so on, for which a closer relationship to europe will be necessary >>> #GBPCHF higher overall ALL of the outgoing members of this Tory government lost their seat overnight.. France election, RN will fall well short of the outright majority, 2nd round usually vastly different, alliances... Le Pen's party likely to gain between 200-240 seats, short of the 289 required >>> lots of words, shouting and political games, chances are little actually happens Biden : FT - Governors Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom along with vice-president Kamala Harris are the donors' preferred candidates to replace Joe Biden in the White House race, several people familiar with the matter have said #BTC down through key support/200dma >>> at a guess, most 'tourists' bought bitcoin above 55K one the #ETF news .... below this all/most of those late buyers are loosing money, crypto's well off their recent peaks... 71K to 51K in 1month #GDX vs #XAUUSD - generally speaking miners (most hated industry currently) have a huge divergence relative to #gold prices >>> '' The gold is the ultimate reserve if the entire financial system were to get into trouble and nothing would be of value anymore'' Jamaica, Etna, California, not nice Brazil's Bolsonaro indicted for alleged money laundering for undeclared diamonds from Saudi Arabia Friday's jobs report expected to show slowing payroll gains as concern rises about broader economy ( msn.com ) Ole S Hansen on X: "Another 18k slump in #Bitcoin to go if the recent behaviour is being replicated. All it took for a coin whose raison d'être is its lack of supply, was the potential supply from the failed Mt. Gox exchange and current selling from the German govn of confiscated coins from an https://t.co/jjcitVyaTw " / X Netherlands is ready to rebuild its financial system with gold | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee | Exposing the long-term manipulation of the gold market ( gata.org ) UK Election: How the night unfolded | UK News | Sky News 30,000 police to be deployed across France in wake of snap election | The Independent Le Pen party in talks to join Orbán’s group in European parliament ( ft.com ) Democratic donors push Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom as Joe Biden replacements ( ft.com ) Listen: Biden says he is ‘first black woman to serve with a black president’ ( msn.com ) wait, what, he really said this!!?...something has to give sorry Joe Brazil's Bolsonaro indicted for alleged money laundering for undeclared diamonds from Saudi Arabia ( msn.com ) Singapore Says Tainted Family Offices Received Tax Benefits ( finews.asia ) Nearly 30,000 people in northern California evacuated as raging wildfire spreads | California | The Guardian Hurricane Beryl tracker: Category 3 storm heading for Mexico after battering Jamaica | The Independent Watch: Drone footage shows explosive Mount Etna eruption - BBC News good grief, you think you have it bad ?

  • France RN : no majority in round 2 / Biden hanging in there / FOMC minutes : dovish / Swiss inflation softer / UK election and Happy Independence day

    UK's Labour could head to a monster majority of over 400seats Overall, FOMC minutes : slightly dovish as the committee seems to have become relatively more optimistic on the inflation outlook >>> consistent with Chair Powell's comments in Sintra yesterday >>> Sep cut almost all priced in (75%) France election update : seems now NR projections are for 200 seats, below 289 majority to form govt, which is way below 1st round, always about those alliances in round 2... >>> euro, OATs, equity recovered.. U.S services PMI much weaker at 48.8, after 53.8 in May, ISM Manufacturing and Services now both in contraction as of June, The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index has dropped to a 9-year low Jobless claims were up slightly but continuing claims keep climbing and are now at the highest since late 2021 . Is the Fed paying attention to this? “We do think the labor market will remain tight due to the imminent wave of Baby Boomer retirements:” RBC’s Reid. The job openings rate, now at 4.9%, remains higher than pre-Covid, but the labor force has grown less than 3% since 2019, “suggesting demographic forces are at play.” The last major bear on Wall Street has capitulated, Kolanovic leaves JPM Trump floats replacing income tax with tariffs #BTC Bitcoin is trading right on the big trend line and the lower part of the range . Note the 200 day moving average slightly lower 59500 area A series of raids in Italy has exposed the contrast between the glamorous world of Milan’s catwalks and some of the realities of luxury-goods production   Swiss CPI inflation undershoots SNB projections again, down to 1.33% in June. Core inflation eased to 1.1% France's far-right seen falling short of majority in run-off, poll shows ( msn.com ) Législatives : le RN n’obtiendrait pas une majorité absolue (Première projection après désistements) | Le Grand Continent General election – live: Polls open as millions to vote across UK today ( msn.com ) Defiant Biden vows to stay in presidential race ‘to the end’ ( msn.com ) Trump floated replacing income tax with tariffs: GOP Rep Thomas Massie ( nypost.com ) June U.S. Manufacturing PMI comes in at 51.6 | Watch ( msn.com ) Google carbon emissions up on AI demand ( qz.com ) Alaska Airlines flight attendants get raises, boarding pay in new contract ( qz.com ) Raids Find Luxury Handbags Being Made by Exploited Workers in Italy ( msn.com ) Beware what you buy

  • Biden odds way down / Powell's speech recap / #JPY / UK election up next, stability returning / #ChatGPT

    Biden is on his way out.. (Predictit - betting exchange - see below), Kamala favourite, Newson and Michèle Obama next up Jay Powell says US needs to cut deficit ‘sooner rather than later’-FT >>> >>> consistent message from JPow, the markets will react to the U.S presidential polls and when Biden goes, Mag7's near highs together with indices Goldman Sachs notes of the recent disconnect in the historical relationship of #USDJPY and the real interest rate differential.  While there are theories to explain this, none are conclusive.  Goldman Sachs continue to expect weakness in the yen , but the latest round of depreciation may prompt intervention from Japanese authorities >>>> you cannot have it both ways BoJ, it's either rates or JPY.. Britain could become ‘island of stability’ as Macron debt crisis consumes France, says UBS >>> #GBPCHF "America’s Census Bureau produces the best estimates. It finds that only 5% of businesses have used AI in the past fortnight . Even in San Francisco many techies admit, when pressed, that they do not fork out $20 a month for the best version of ChatGPT" Manufacturing Construction Spending in the US continues to hit new record highs, more than tripling over the last 3 years EU is drawing up plans to impose customs duties on cheap goods bought from Chinese online retailers including Temu, Aliexpress and Shein. The European Commission later this month will suggest scrapping a current €150 threshold under which items can be bought duty-free.-FT Presidency ( predictit.org ) Biden all but going.. Michelle Obama Is Only Democrat Beating Trump in New Post-Debate Poll – And It’s by A LOT ( msn.com ) Joe Biden admits he ‘nearly fell asleep’ during Trump debate as he blames jet lag for poor performance ( msn.com ) Britain could become ‘island of stability’ as Macron debt crisis consumes France, says UBS ( msn.com )  - indeed - we stay long #GBPCHF Over 200 candidates withdraw before second round of voting – France election live ( msn.com ) Fed on Alert for US Labor Market as Hiring and Quitting Slow - Bloomberg Jay Powell says US needs to cut deficit ‘sooner rather than later’ ( ft.com ) - disinflation trend appears to be resuming, need more confidence before cutting - Fed does not see 2% inflation this or next year - budget deficit very large and unsustainable - 4% unemployment is still very low rate - Moving too fast risks inflation returning Charlie Bilello on X: "Manufacturing Construction Spending in the US continues to hit new record highs, more than tripling over the last 3 years. https://t.co/rQuXrxVXM0 https://t.co/x8YefQDLiL " / X Inflation needs to fall more before Fed interest rate cuts, Jerome Powell says ( qz.com ) EU takes aim at China's Temu and Shein with proposed import duty, FT reports ( msn.com ) Biden wants Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly to cut Ozempic, other weight loss drug prices ( qz.com ) BBC Verify rounds up fact checks of this election's disputed claims - BBC News What happened to the artificial-intelligence revolution? ( economist.com )

  • Saxo : Q3 outlook recap / #Trump = #Steeper #UST curve / Iran / #USDJPY pushing #USDCNH higher

    French Elections : If the left & center parties keep Marine Le Pen’s bloc from a majority, unstable paralysis will follow. If they don’t, the National Rally will split power with Emmanuel Macron — accompanied by a bond market selloff and halt to growth, Bloomberg >>>> it IS going to get pretty messy-complicated Guindos said the ECB “don’t have a predetermined path” for interest rates. Iran would use ‘all means’ to back Hizbollah if Israel launches full-blown war , official says Aide to supreme leader warns Israel risks triggering regional conflict in the event of all-out offensive against militant group-FT Crude highest levels since April Shell pauses construction of European biofuels facility >> Shell is likely to take a write-down as a result. Another misallocation of shareholders' money Small Cap Stocks post worst first half in HISTORY relative to Large Caps >>> #Mag7 BofA: Only 24% of stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the index YTD, marking the third narrowest 6-mo. period in history since 1986 (was narrower in Jul 2023 at 23% and in Feb 2020 at 21%). Gold-buying frenzy grips Vietnam and Thailand as economic fears mount #USDJPY >>> JPY keeps falling, you can't intervene to strengthen JPY and at the same time intervene to keep yields 'ridiculously' low...something has to give, right now its the JPY, which is becoming a huge issue for #USDCNH which is now a #crawlingpeg basically Equity markets : as we start H2 2024, markets are on highs, Mag7 valuations 'crazy' rich really, elections will start to impact #uncertainty Trump will be all about spending (UST long-end giving way in anticipation), inflation remains sticky, and Europe election risk/political uncertainty on higher levels with Le Pen (worse with far-left), strangely enough the UK will be steady-good-boring with Labour going forward.. #EURGBP lower Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3: Sandcastle economics | Saxo ( home.saxo ) Resilient economic growth : The US economy shows robust growth driven by investments in AI, defence, semiconductors, and obesity drug manufacturing, despite aggressive monetary policy rate increases and cooling labour markets in the US and Europe. Persistent inflation : Inflation in the US and Europe remains higher than initially expected but is easing, and robust wage growth is contributing to an income-driven economic growth scenario, which is seen as a "goldilocks scenario" entering the third quarter. Two-lane economy : Different sectors of the economy are experiencing varying impacts from high-interest rates, with sectors like real estate and car manufacturing struggling, while defence, semiconductors, AI, and obesity drug manufacturing are booming, complicating monetary policy decisions. Investment outlook : The short-term investment outlook is positive, favouring risky assets due to calm financial markets and a low financial turbulence indicator. Recommended asset allocations include being overweight in equities and commodities, European equities, and sectors like energy, healthcare, financials, and information technology. We also like short-term government bonds and high quality corporate bonds. Commodity and FX views : The energy and grains sectors are expected to perform well, with robust demand for crude oil and grains recovering from adverse weather conditions. In the FX market, risk-on currencies like AUD and NZD are expected to outperform in a bearish dollar environment, while low-yielding currencies like JPY and CHF are likely to underperform Politics will be key for financial markets this summer – The Armchair Trader General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare? - BBC News Iran would use ‘all means’ to back Hizbollah if Israel launches full-blown war, official says ( ft.com ) Joe Biden slams US Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling as Donald Trump seeks to overturn hush money convictions ( msn.com ) Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for July 1 - Bloomberg Gold-buying frenzy grips Vietnam and Thailand as economic fears mount | South China Morning Post ( scmp.com ) Le Pen’s Support Surges in Nearly Every City, Town and Village in France ( bloomberg.com ) Friends, foes of France’s far-right National Rally scramble after first round of voting | AP News BIS Warns of High Debt Levels and Loan Defaults ( finews.asia ) ECB Must Be Patient With Further Interest-Rate Cuts, Muller Says - Bloomberg Chinese EVs Are Selling More Cars Than Ever. Tesla Should Be Worried. - Business Insider Shell pauses construction of European biofuels facility - Energy Live News #EURUSD will go through support particularly if the French far-left gets in.. but overall uncertainty may well keep EURO offered overall again #EURJPY ?

  • France : hung parliament possible / Biden wants to stay on / Shipping freight Aug 2022 highs / JPN inflation outlook

    Week ahead (see below upcoming events), starts of H2 2024, UK election, 2nd round in France >>> ''RN falling short of majority'', 10y spread to Bund narrows by about 8bps, risk rallies initially in europe, long way to go >>> Hung parliament possible France, RN 33.1%, left-wing alliance 28% and Macron camp 21%, Édouard Carmignac says markets will keep French far right on ‘tight leash’ Biden wants to stay on by the sound of things Inflation expectations in Japan have risen to the highest since at least 2004 by one measure as the tumbling yen pressures import prices higher, adding to the case for the central bank to raise interest rates Global shipping freight cost have spiked to the highest level since 2022, and US economic surprise index has plummeted to the lowest level since August 2022 Recycling ‘end-of-life’ solar panels, wind turbines, is about to be climate tech’s big waste business France election: Far right hails lead and seeks majority - BBC News Édouard Carmignac says markets will keep French far right on ‘tight leash’ ( ft.com ) French election results: Fallout from far right win — live updates – POLITICO Iran to hold runoff election with reformist Pezeshkian and hard-liner Jalili after low-turnout vote ( msn.com ) Japan Inflation Outlook Jumps, Backing BOJ Case for Rate Hike ( yahoo.com ) Biden’s family reportedly tell him to stay in presidential race as blame shifts to advisers | Joe Biden | The Guardian so 'who's in charge here' ? Former DNC vice chair: 'Absolutely not too late' for Biden's withdrawal ( thehill.com ) Saxo/ Upcoming Events: Monday  Japan Tankan, DE Inflation, International PMI, US ISM, Canada Holiday Tuesday EU Inflation, Unemployment, Powell speaks Wednesday  DE Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Minutes, John Williams Speaks Thursday US Holiday, UK Election , DE Industrial Orders Friday  DE Industrial Production, UK House Prices, Swiss FX Reserves, US Nonfarm & Unemployment, Canada Labor Market Data And Saturday a certain England vs Switzerland.. Compounding Quality on X: "7 Finance documentaries and movies everyone should watch: 1. Enron - The Smartest Guys in the Room Documentary that unravels the intricate web of corporate fraud and greed behind the infamous collapse of Enron. https://t.co/mzawAELN9J " / X Disney Stock Faces Major Challenges: Is Iger The Right Choice? ( forbes.com ) Recycling end-of-life solar panel, wind turbine is big waste business ( cnbc.com ) #EURCHF

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