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Fujairah key / Israel leadership ? / RBA hiked / Trump-Xi meeting delayed / NVDA trn $ forecast / FED infl risk

  • sc0172
  • Mar 17
  • 3 min read

  • Markets have so far focused more on the inflationary effects of the oil price move up - shock (and other commods) rather than the risks to global growth from it, will fertilizer get there in time in variosu parts of the world to avoid 'food infl by Xmas', RBA hiked 25bps, #NVDA 's $1trn Ai forecast, WSJ-The Fed keeps getting hit with new shocks in its yearslong inflation fight, Mr Market 'feels' some sort of Trump deal is coming, for years Mr Market always had a simple strategy, as governments kicked the problem down the road, printed money, and told the public everything was fine (trillion usd question now..is this still the case ? private credit, Middle East, HUGE defense build up & spending, Ukraine-Russia, Taiwan.. and a global economy likely to be hit fairly hard from all these dislocations.., stagflation risk .. >>> so use short-covering rally in equity to lighten up on risk/rotate/watchout risk of stagflation, USD should resume it's downside move (De-dollarization etc, U.S. isolated geopolitically and perhaps economically, peak BigTechs etc), pick up hard assets on dips..

  • Geopolitics : Tehran is clearly going after the Strait of Hormuz bypass route, with Fujairah (UAE) coming under attack, BA flights (and other airlines) to Dubai cancelled till summer, Trump asked to delay Xi visit at end of the month, will have ago a Cuba soon, Iranian oil tankers going through Hormuz, plenty of reports that Netanyahu and some of his top security leadership are dead (TBC), Iran war begets fertilizer and other supply cost worries for US farmers

  • French General Yakovleff: “The U.S. asks us for help and wants us to share the cost of their fiascos. Joining Trump’s coalition today is like buying a ticket to dinner and dancing on the Titanic the evening after it hit the iceberg.”

  • Qatari advisor Hamad bin Jassim said: “The Gulf states warned Donald Trump that the war would lead to disaster, yet it erupted without calculations or a Plan B. Iran will not surrender to the U.S. and Israel, and it will engage in a war of attrition affecting everyone. Iran, however, has nothing to lose.”

  • Iran’s New Battlefield: The Global Economy (thread), Axios: Iranians will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until they get a permanent peace deal, even if Trump TACO's. Privately, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials believe the crisis could continue for the next six months


Yesterday........Trump has started praising Iran : “I’m dealing with very smart players. These are smart people. They don’t get there otherwise. You know who you’re dealing with. High-level intellect. High ,very high-IQ people.”....he also said...“IRAN is a nation of…GREAT POWER… TREMENDOUS POWER” “No one expected them to attack the gulf states. We were shocked”

He's getting desperate for a deal of some sorts..






'''India needs urea by May, U.S Corn belt need urea by mid~Apr, Australia needs by June. Miss those windows and u have massive yield loss. The food is not decided by diplomats in 6 months. It is decided by soil chemistry in the next six weeks. The prices hit your table by Christmas'''

























 
 
 

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