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Private credit-consumer loans 'panic' / FED : not cut / Risk-off, PM risk assets too now / Citi not ruling out $200 crude

  • sc0172
  • 12 minutes ago
  • 4 min read

  • The Fed sort of said neutral rates are going higher (dots, inflation..), not temporarily but maybe even structurally, a 3.1% terminal rate reprices EVERYTHING with a duration component.. unless of course we get a big recession and inflation heads south, but not for pleasant reasons clearly..and Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave the bad news early: "There is effectively ZERO NET JOB CREATION in the private sector."

  • ''The American empire is at risk''.. clearly, of being replaced by CHINA in the Middle East, they are stepping up to mediate peace in the region, in Yuan, completely bypassing the US.... AND >>> The AI boom is AT RISK of being confirmed over, a long lasting, more expensive / energy crisis, making energy hungry AI investments near impossible.. / far too expensive, and thus #valuations are way off...

  • Markets : US February PPI came in higher than expected at 3.4% vs expectations at 2.9% This means core inflation is heating up!, private credit exodus from investors spreads to consumer loans, BANK DEFAULTS likely up from Middle East resorts, refineries, infrastructure, real estate..., JPMorgan halts $5.3bn Qualtrics debt deal as AI fears chill demand, Stoneridge AM only 11% you can have, Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed (every single time - chart available)..,  U.S national debt $39 TRN, two ECB hikes of 25bps now priced in for ECB in 2026, FED will do nothing (unless forced to emergency cut if say equity markets tank in short-term - they will panic), PM risk assets as ME capital disappears >>>> overall, NO need to be too brave, wait for opportunities to come your way.., the real eye of the storm is approaching, prepare your shopping list of solid names, balance-sheets..(we have), liquidation as/when funding runs out in parts of the world, create dislocation and opportunities.., a 10-20pct correction cannot be ruled out, due to this ME war, it is ALL about the length of the conflict, but already some EXTREMELY serious damage done to infrastructure, military stance, LNF, crude, fertilizers and so on.., huge GDP loss in ME, followed by more bad loans etc..

  • Private credit is panicking: • Defaults have quadrupled • ~20-25% exposure to software facing AI disruption • Retail investors are running for the exits, only getting 10-15pct liquidity.. (bet they weren't told this when they initially invested..)

  • China stops fertilizer exports as American farmers face fertilizer shortages

  • Iran is now moving ahead with the idea of levying transit duties on the Strait of Hormuz... $73 billion a year in projected income from the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, Iran does not need to win a conventional war. All they have to do is keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and bleed the Gulf economies dry....and they don't need to be on Truth social every 30 seconds either...

  • Citi not ruling out $200 oil. "We are incrementally bullish very near-term and see prices rising to $110–120/bbl in the base case, with the risk skew surrounding current prices tilted to the upside. Our bull case scenario (multiple paths to get there) is for Brent prices to reach $150/bbl, and for ‘all-in’ crude and product prices reaching as high as $180–200/bbl by mid-year."

  • Over £1.3bn missing at failed lender. #MFS investigated over ‘very serious’ fraud claims

  • #GOLD : Question: Who sells their gold in such a macro environment? Answer: Anyone who needs liquidity to make ends meet. For example, the Gulf states, whose economy is now existentially threatened by the war


This war is the end of the empire. "If Iran holds out, if Iran achieves its objectives, well, it's in effect the end of, the American empire." French intellectual Emmanuel Todd says it's not Russia winning, it's the West losing. All self inflicted.




"The largest shipping groups, including MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, have told customers they reserve the right to invoke a 19th-century rule to allow them to leave containers at the nearest available port at their client’s expense."



why...humm



















 
 
 

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