Saxo Bank has received a BBB rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings, according to the bank’s first-ever rating report FT-We must slow down the race to God-like AI - ''I’ve invested in more than 50 artificial intelligence start-ups. What I’ve seen worries me'' - well worth a read. Criminals will harness ChatGPT to unleash a new wave of online fraud, Britain's biggest listed cybersecurity company has warned Hiking to bring down inflation is not a policy mistake, that's the Fed's mandate. The real mistake was to believe.. that ZIRP, NIRP, QE infinite and buying billions of mortgage bonds in a housing bubble & increasing money supply by some nearly 50% in 2 years, would have no negative consequences eventually U.S inflation on Wed was slightly softer, that's the good news, the not so good news is it's stabilizing on higher ground, yesterday's PPI was down 0.5% in March (falling most since pandemic..) and Jobless claims come in 4,000 higher than expected at 239K vs a forecast of 235K. The prior reading was 228K (a sign of light stress in markets, probably) >>> be careful with averages though, Atlanta's like for like median wage tracker is still pretty high, no pivot in sight unless there is some sort of crash in the economy ( rate expectations moved massively last 6 weeks from a small June hike to cuts in Sep, -75bps in cut for 2023 and -150 going forward. ..this looks a little much? - chart available if you wish) The IMF sees rates back near zero when inflation gets under control. BlackRock’s Larry Fink disagrees , thinks inflation isn’t falling much below 4% anytime soon due to lost productivity. “A big reason productivity has fallen: remote working does not work.” Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance . Leftist president lends his voice to Beijing’s efforts to boost renminbi’s role in global commerce The case for a strategic allocation to gold WSJ / ‘Net Zero’ Will Mean a Mining Boom. But political instability will make it difficult to obtain all the minerals electric cars will need Swiss inflation comes in at 2.9% YoY, but as usual depends on how you weigh components, see Thread below US debt ceiling impasse pushes price of insuring against default to 11-year high Markets : Softer U.S data, rates expectation pushing USDollar down further through key long-term support of 1.1030+ EURUSD, Cable 1.2500+, USDCHF below 0.8950/.90000 etc ETH rises to $2100, GOLD approaching ATH's, Silver trying (needs 27+ for the big bulls..), XPT picking up a little bit of steam too Equity markets love a bit of cooling inflation , lower USDollar and lower vols (eq and bonds) , earnings report next, with banks starting the show today The #VIX ended the day at 17.75, lowest close in 15 months (so beware of an unexpected scenario from here, vols are cheap, now is time to buy a hedge, if you need one!) Saxo Bank receives investment grade rating from SP | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Excellent-great news FirstFT: US debt ceiling impasse pushes price of insuring against default to 11-year high | Financial Times Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance | Financial Times (ft.com) these kind of calls don't mean much in reality...pure political shenanigans.. but there you go, there are quite a few of them around these days The case for a strategic allocation to gold | World Gold Council Gold Is Near a Record High and It Could Keep Climbing. | Barron's (barrons.com) We must slow down the race to God-like AI | Financial Times (ft.com) Criminals will use ChatGPT to unleash wave of fraud, warn cyber experts (yahoo.com) "I don't really understand it. I think it's an incredible technological advance in terms of what we can do," says Warren Buffett on artificial intelligence. "It scares me in terms of the possibility of it. I think this is extraordinary but I don't know if it's beneficial." ChatGPT: intelligent, stupid or downright dangerous? - SWI swissinfo.ch me open minded, but can see the flaws this could bring.. Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "There was good news for grocery shoppers: Food prices showed the weakest performance since November 2020, being flat on the month. That was helped by a 10.9% plunge in the price of eggs from February to March – the biggest decline since 1987! (BBG) https://t.co/GRt5sW7zuj" / Twitter Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Egg prices getting fried, poached, and scrambled … m/m drop of -10.9% for CPI eggs in March was largest since December 1987 https://t.co/wEH0QNIXQW" / Twitter egg inflation mania is over ‘Net Zero’ Will Mean a Mining Boom - WSJ Not just LA.. Dublin Office Space Take-Up Drops 42% in Sign of Further Stress - Bloomberg It's everywhere a similar picture SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son Is Giving Up On Jack Ma’s Alibaba | Observer How Credit Suisse's Emergency Rescue is Viewed From Abroad (finews.asia) The Swiss Times on Twitter: "March #inflation, #Switzerland. Officially est'd at 2.9%y/y, but this depends on how you weight the components. To this eye 2.9% looks too low for lower income people with disproportionately higher outlays on food & rent. Next tweet: English translation Follow @TheSwissTimes! https://t.co/CSOrHvGkK2" / Twitter Government retreats from Brexit bill plan to ditch EU laws | Brexit | The Guardian GBPUSD - just for a long-term view - while USD rates expectations remains bearish (cuts), USDollar can stay weak, 1.30 CABLE not all that crazy at all in short-ish term

Warren Buffet tears into banks (slams banks for hiding their losses), trashes bitcoin, and warns inflation and recession can lead to big problems (late 70's example, Volcker etc), hence Fed has to stay strong, talked about his recent JPN Investments (and JPY? is he looking for end of YCC..?).. FOMC minutes : Staff’s projections included a mild recession starting later this year According to the number crunchers with the Committee for a Responsible U.S Federal Budget, the government is borrowing roughly $6 billion a day Row casts shadow on Joe Biden visit to Belfast . US President reaches out as a ‘friend’ to Unionists amid warnings against America intervening in power sharing row Italian residents' deposits with domestic banks fell in February for a fourth mont h, hitting their lowest level in just over two years as rising interest rates and high inflation prompted savers to seek remuneration for their cash, data showed ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies BoE : New technology means that banks can collapse much more quickly than before , the Governor of the Bank of England has warned The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged for the second straight meeting , saying recent data is reinforcing its confidence that inflation will continue to slow North Korea missile launch sparks panic and evacuations in Japan. A South Korean military official said the test apparently involved a new weapons system displayed at a recent North Korean military parade, possibly using solid fuel ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May Markets : USDollar remains soft(er), drifting lower as cooling inflation brings end in sigh for Fed rate hikes , one more and done probably, whether the FED actually cuts what the market has already priced in, is another question. Nomura looking for 120 USDJPY by year-end (see article below) - vols are low , if you were looking for some downside play it's now.. SPX500 tested that 4150 area and corrected back to 41, we are definitely getting into expensive valuations 4150/4200 area is not really the place to increase risk over earnings reports period. Commods, GOLD, copper all holding up well / grinding higher, XAGUSD could start to have some gappy price action Upside pain? Goldman's flow guru, Scott Rubner, is back and he is bullish. Main bullets are: 1. Positioning is very short and fundamental investors are under exposed given low net HF exposure 2. Flow of fund technicals remain favorable from CTA’s, tax deadlines pass, and corporates return to the open window 3. Sentiment remains bearish, and “JOMO” joy of missing out, turns back into “FOMO” fear of missing out 4. Liquidity is the highest level of 2023 Given the fact implied volatility has imploded, playing a possible squeeze with upside calls offer attractive risk reward. Warren Buffett tears into banks, trashes bitcoin, and warns inflation and recession can lead to big problems (yahoo.com) and Warren Buffett's trip is a 'stamp of approval' for investing in Japan (cnbc.com) Warren Buffett: why he bought 5 Japanese trading houses (cnbc.com) He has more patience, long-term, than anyone, but they don't really look all that cheap looking a a 20y chart.. The tale of US CPI, Fed meeting minutes and the market's wild ride (fxstreet.com) Banks at risk of faster collapses in social media age, says Andrew Bailey (telegraph.co.uk) Yes indeed, everyone has an Iphone... why didn't they realize this a long while back..?? they probably still using checks! Exclusive-ECB policymakers converging on 25-bps rate hike in May - sources (yahoo.com) Row casts shadow on Joe Biden visit to Belfast | Evening Standard Why bitcoin will never eclipse gold | MoneyWeek Denmark based Securities Brokerage Firm Saxo Bank AS assigned BBB Rating (home.saxo) positive development for all involved - well done Saxo Bank lanciert neues Zinsmodell (advisorworld.ch) Previous Restructuring May Minimise Impact of Credit Suisse Sale on FX Market (financemagnates.com) How the Swiss Parliament Deludes Itself Over Credit Suisse (finews.asia) Italy questions plan to reintroduce bears after country’s first fatal attack | The Independent Sounded like a great idea initially.. ‘Pissed off as hell’: US tries to contain leaks fallout with friends and enemies | The Hill President Joe Biden's fortress on wheels: Meet 'The Beast' | ITV News The beast! Russia’s elite begins to ponder a Putinless future | The Economist North Korea missile launch sparks confusion in Japan - BBC News Japan yen could hit 120 this year, Nomura says (cnbc.com) from Nomura SPX500

BofA's Hartnett has what he calls “the Dirty Dozen” — 12 charts that he says indicate recession. TheSPX rally “from 3.8k to 4.1-4.2k likely run its course; we say ‘sell the last rate hike’ on May 3rd.” - Thread and the charts below March saw biggest tightening in US Small Business Credit Availability since 2002 (joint 2nd biggest on record). NFIB confirms credit tightening happening as a result of bank failures. 1st clear sign for Fed to digest/Thread. NFP was strong on the surface, yet things like NFIB hiring plans were down to 15, a cycle low, so we can definitely find some weakness underneath The issue with fewer bank deposits is that banks end up having to/forced to sell their asset books too, including UST's Elon Musk is rebranding Twitter as X Corp. The name change is part of the billionaire's goal to make an "everything app". Musk Dismisses concerns about misinfo and hate on Twitter, jokes his Dog Floki is CEO now FED talks yesterday : Williams sounded fairly hawkish, downplaying potential impact of headwinds from slower activity in credit (after SVB etc), while Goolsbee appearing to be dovish (monetary policy approach calling for prudence and patience on credit impact in markets) Twenty S&P 500 stocks account for 90% of Wall Street’s gains this year "Large speculators, mostly hedge funds, saw their net short positions in S&P 500 e-mini futures increase to roughly 321,000 contracts as of Tuesday , according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That’s the most bearish reading since November 2011 following the downgrade of the US’s sovereign credit rating." As part of the annual report for its System Open Market Account for 2022, the bank said that Fed holdings, which now stand at $8.7 trillion, will likely fall to around $6 trillion by the middle of 2025 before holding steady for around a year Swiss parliament's lower house rejects Credit Suisse rescue package >>> all a bit symbolic... funds have already been committed ! politicians questioning the ''droit d'urgence'' and how often it's been used in recent years.. Markets : ALL about CPI , HF positioning is short EQ and bonds..see above comments and below Thread + Hartnett's stuff CHF did not weaken with all the CS stuff, you could almost think SNB was buying a few CHF to calm things down and not give the wrong impression!?.. SNB wants a strong currency to fight inflation.. XAGUSD breaking up (again CPI day so play accordingly) - chart below Crude, commods, precious metals slightly higher, USDollar softer too, all will continue if/when U.S CPI shows signs of peaking, and vice versa! NY Fed report sees several more years of balance sheet contraction (msn.com) Small Business Confidence Declines in March as Economic Uncertainty Continues, NFIB Says (msn.com) Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "B of A’s Hartnett has what he calls “the Dirty Dozen” — 12 charts that he says indicate recession. The $SPX rally “from 3.8k to 4.1-4.2k likely run its course; we say ‘sell the last rate hike’ on May 3rd.” https://t.co/XFPXMdQWaP" / Twitter Fed's Williams: The Fed has its 'work cut out' bringing down inflation (yahoo.com) Viraj Patel on Twitter: "⚠️ March saw biggest tightening in US Small Business Credit Availability since 2002 (joint 2nd biggest on record). NFIB confirms credit tightening happening as a result of bank failures. 1st clear sign for Fed to digest. Hard to see this as temporary at this stage of cycle $USD https://t.co/U89HVQMzPu" / Twitter It has become illegal to support Russia in the Czech Republic | The Spectator Australia Hedge Fund Confidence Higher, but Still Lagging Long-Term - The Full FX Wind and solar generated a record amount of global power in 2022 (cnbc.com) >>> still a long way to go..An analysis published Wednesday by independent climate think tank Ember found that 12% of the world’s power came from solar and wind in 2022, up from 10% of global electricity generation in 2021. Why a clean energy transition is so important to G7 chair Japan - Business - Dunya News Musk Dismisses Concerns About Misinfo And Hate On Twitter, Jokes His Dog Floki Is CEO Now (forbes.com) Can President Biden put pressure on the DUP? - BBC News Our ailing productivity is workers’ payback to the greed of bankers after the 2008 crash (cityam.com) Swiss parliament's lower house rejects Credit Suisse rescue package (yahoo.com) ''Droit d'urgence'' was never really ever used, then suddenly is 3 years or so it was used and abused ? with Covid funds, AXPO (enegy company) and now Credit Suisse... few political parties are questioning this process, is this democratic ?.. >>> Office fédéral de la justice: La Suisse est-elle devenue une république bananière? | Tribune de Genève (tdg.ch) stuff like this.. Shiveluch volcano in far-eastern Russia spews 10-kilometre-high ash plume, covering villages - ABC News crazy stuff, crazy pictures The Pentagon leak explained in under 60 seconds - BBC News XAGUSD >>> remember the last time we got to $30, margins were increased dramatically and markets corrected (you could call it manipulation..but there you go), let's see how far we go this time (over next few weeks-months, in 2011 when the US had an issue with debt ceiling we reached the $40+ levels..)

Joe Biden will visit Ireland on the Good Friday peace agreement anniversary, This week : after China's slightly softer CPI +0.7% (exp +1%), focus is on FED speakers tomorrow (Goolsbee, Harker and Kashkari), U.S CPI (Wed) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said a recent sharp drop in bond yields will ease headwinds for the US economy stemming from recent turmoil in the banking sector >>>> BofA sticks with their logic and sees the current set up playing out like the one we saw in the 70s/80s. The crowd is too bullish rate cuts and not bearish enough on the recession . Latest JOLTS data vs Fed Funds needs little commenting Small businesses across the United States are experiencing a surge in bankruptcies , surpassing levels not seen since 2020. According to a UBS note reviewed by The Epoch Times, conditions could become worse as the knock-on effects from the recent banking crises begin to manifest Tesla is building a new factory in Shanghai. The EV company will make its Megapack batteries at the new facility, deepening its investment in China despite trade tensions with the US Credit Suisse collapse may put Singapore in the spotlight NFP data las Friday was pretty much as expected 236K (exp 230K), but given ADP, market was probably looking for a lower print though, so despite rumblings, for now the labor markets remains robust >>> TS Lombard's Steve Blitz in his latest note basically argues that the Fed won't respond to weaker hiring: "March employment data add to the slowing momentum for hiring that the Fed has no intention of reversing. They are, instead, encouraging this slowdown and will get what they want in a few months – unemployment heading towards 4.5%". He still sees Fed funds at 3% by year end What do you play at the start of a recession / Hartnett sums it up (below) "S&P 500 market cap is up ...so far in 2023 but 92% of that rise has come from just 7 large cap stocks and AAPL has account for nearly one-quarter of it " --Citi >>> but that's what makes the market indices! nothing new, but still amazing Hedge funds are reloading on bearish wagers on US equities to a decade high level of exposure, betting the latest market retreat will persist amid worsening economic data and corporate earnings. - Bloomberg/Thread "Mr. Bankman-Fried called Alameda 'unauditable,' saying 'we sometimes find $50m of assets lying around that we lost track of; such is life.'"-WSJ Hundreds of Former Feds have flocked to jobs in Big Tech Markets : Credit crunch ( Spreads on BBB CMBS (commercial-mortgage-backed securities) have moved up to 977 bps, their widest level since March 2020) is often hear in economist's chatters these days and many looking for weaker earnings season (..bearish wagers in place..which maybe be the issue for the bears in short-term..!) >>> inflation remains TOO high and too sticky relative to FED's mandate though(we get U.S CPI on Wed) BTC 30K, GOLD near all time highs, USD struggling , so many articles of 'various countries aiming to cut their independence from the $....over the long-term..'' The 3-Month TBills yield is 5.08%, highest level since March 2007, 12months ago it was at 0.70% and two years ago it was at 0.02% >>> Hedge funds moved to short Treasuries aggressively before Friday's non-farm payrolls data. It was the biggest bearish positioning shift since March of 2022 Crude WTI mid 80's after OPEC+ cut, Copper holding up well (chart below) SPX500 4150/4200 box-top end of the range technically Hartnett sums it up: 1. Long T-bills…cash outperforms until Fed cuts aggressively 2. Long yield curve steepeners… 3. Long gold…US dollar debasement 4. Short over-owned assets vulnerable to deleveraging/revenue cuts…IG/HY bonds, US tech, EU luxury, industrial/defense stocks, US private equity...(good luck shorting LVMH...) 4. And prepare shopping list…once labor market indicates recession begins, execute on buy list of distressed cyclicals in banks, REITs, small caps, commodities. Markets & Mayhem on Twitter: "Hedge funds are reloading on bearish wagers on US equities to a decade high level of exposure, betting the latest market retreat will persist amid worsening economic data and corporate earnings. - Bloomberg https://t.co/fNwgFlz7RV" / Twitter Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "Spreads on BBB CMBS (commercial-mortgage-backed securities) have moved up to 977 bps, their widest level since March 2020. https://t.co/BZ2yKi4LOm" / Twitter Hundreds Of Former Feds Have Flocked To Jobs In Big Tech | The Daily Caller A world infested with social media messages from previous government officials ?...humm Bob Elliott on Twitter: "Inflation is too high and too sticky given the Fed's mandate, and in the short-term it looks like things are going in the wrong direction. Lets start CPI week with a quick review of what's going on with inflation pressures. First, breakdown of the most recent PCE report: https://t.co/OwYU4nRt7c" / Twitter Bitcoin tops $30,000 for the first time since June (cnbc.com) Bank Failures. High Inflation. Rising Rates. Is the Resilient Jobs Market About to Crack? - WSJ >>> could be, though no real clear signs of slowing down, yet anyway Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "APOLLO: “The credit crunch has started. .. A survey of 71 banks in the Dallas Fed district done after SVB went under shows a dramatic reversal in loan volumes, .. from March 21 to 29.” [Slok] $KRE $XLF https://t.co/tTtev6Zwkd" / Twitter Packers fear influx of cage eggs from Mexico with new trade deal - Farmers Weekly (fwi.co.uk) another Brexit win - bravo New UBS CEO tries to calm staff fears - SWI swissinfo.ch Credit Suisse Collapse May Put Singapore in the Spotlight (finews.asia) Joe Biden is making his first visit to Ireland as president (qz.com) Why Ireland is so important to Joe Biden - BBC News End May Be in Sight for Global Rate-Hike Cycle as Fed Nears Peak - SWI swissinfo.ch Must admit it's a lovely story, there is going to film about it sooner or later! Ryan Reynolds ‘troubled’ by how hooked he is on football after Wrexham win | Evening Standard Failed crypto giant FTX's failure was rooted in SBF's 'incompetence and greed' | Daily Mail Online Japanese trading houses rise as Warren Buffett says he plans on buying more (cnbc.com) U.S. and the Philippines hold largest war drills near disputed waters (cnbc.com) Taiwan’s president condemns China drills as irresponsible | Politics News | Al Jazeera Putin’s army unleashing ‘scorched earth tactics’ on Bakhmut after heavy losses, says Ukrainian commander | Evening Standard CPTPP: UK-Asia trade deal boosting economy by 0.08% could be overestimate | The Independent more lies and propaganda France's Macron to visit Netherlands amid row over China comments (msn.com) Copper steady/trending higher

The services economy is slowing, too. This is a big deal as services are 77.6% of the US economy! US ISM Services PMI at 51.2 vs 54.4 expectations. The previous reading was 55.1... Every part of ISM Services PMI dropped like a rock , new orders from 62.6 down to 52.2 Almost 30% of the rally in the NDX from March 13 until March 31 was driven by 2 stocks , AAPL and MSFT. Almost 800 of the 1351 points gained on the NDX were from 6 stocks/BBG Mester: “Recent Bank turmoil could lead to tighter credit.” >>> maybe Mester & Bullard should spend more time on recent U.S data which is clearly showing a big stagflation coming The head of Sweden’s biggest pension fund has reassured clients that the firm is financially solid despite a failed investment strategy that wiped out $2 billion in retirement savings Switzerland to cancel, cut Top Credit Suisse Executives’ Bonuses & clawbacks potentially Germany seeks to limit Brussels’ scope on national debt reduction plans.Finance minister Christian Lindner is sceptical about European Commission’s role as fiscal enforcer China's Caixin services PMI for March comes in at 57.8, the highest in 28 months , vs expected 55, previous 55, New orders hit new high since Dec 2020.. in contrast to the U.S "2/3rds of offshore China property bonds currently outstanding are from issuers that have either defaulted or have conducted bond exchange transactions or maturity extensions on their USD bonds" - GS French President Emmanuel Macron urged Xi Jinping to use his influence to help restore peace to Ukraine, saying the Chinese leader could bring all sides together to discuss a way to end the Russian invasion New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios Another central bank pauses as the Reserve Bank of India holds interest-rates at 6.5% Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate - good grief Markets: US Regional Bank stocks have not shown any signs of recovery this week ! UST in collapsing mode this week, deflation risk ! >>> lower rates are good for risk only if inflation follows lower, it may well in months ahead, but we not there yet #EURJPY #USDJPY even #GBPJPY technical set up looking increasingly bearish GOLD testing previous highs, while miners still 30% below fair value and #XAGUSD is still 50pct or so below previous highs in 2011, when there were risk regarding U.S debt ceiling.. sounds familiar ? and since then the US debt has gone up exponentially (elsewhere too mind.. debt is not just a U.S risk..) SPX500 in 'peak mode' going into earnings season, 4100/4200 should remain pretty toppish overall - big picture Special Edition: Generative AI Part 1: what it is and how and whether to gain exposure. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) #AI special Morgan Stanley: ‘Worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate | Fortune The IMF warns that shadow banks that hold nearly 50% of global assets are vulnerable as central banks raise rates to tackle inflation (yahoo.com) (Bloomberg) -- Top Credit Suisse Group AG executives will have outstanding bonuses canceled or reduced by up to half, according to a statement from the Swiss government on Wednesday.  After a temporary suspension on March 21, the government said it has now decided that the executive board will have all outstanding variable renumeration to the end of 2022 canceled, while top managers one and two levels below will have theirs reduced by 50% and 25% respectively, according to the statement.  The move will affect around 1,000 Credit Suisse employees and amounts to between 50 million and 60 million Swiss francs ($66.3 million).  Credit Suisse must also look at potentially recovering bonuses already paid out and to report back to both the Swiss finance ministry and financial regulator Finma on the matter.  The government has also decreed that UBS Group AG, which is acquiring Credit Suisse, must amend its own remuneration system so that it takes into consideration non-utilization of the federal guarantee it received when deciding on bonuses for executives, according to the statement. ChatGPT Recommends Massive Allocations In Gold In Its “Recession-Proof” Portfolio - Newstrail.com !! U.S. service sector slows in March; inflation cooling - ISM survey (msn.com) Box B: Scenario Analysis on Indebted Households' Spare Cash Flows and Prepayment Buffers | Financial Stability Review – April 2023 | RBA Elon Musk’s 'Master Plan' Hints at Three New Tesla Vehicles | Barron's (barrons.com) Germany seeks to limit Brussels’ scope on national debt reduction plans | Financial Times (ft.com) Russia's War in Ukraine Latest News Updates: April 6, 2023 - Bloomberg Judy Shelton on Twitter: "Look at the Fed’s latest H.4.1 statement. They are paying 4.9% on $3.4 trillion on bank reserves; they are paying 4.8% on $2.6 trillion in money market mutual funds parked overnight through reverse repurchase agreements. Just think: The Fed is shelling out an annualized $291…" / Twitter The World’s First Octopus Farm Will Have a Cannibalism Problem, Report Warns | VegNews Thoughts?.. Good for him!..A lucky gold digger ! Amateur Australian gold digger finds massive nugget - BBC News Alecta Sweden Pension Fund Chief Tries to Placate Savers Angry Over Losses - Bloomberg The amazing thing is that they have to come out and say it... Nicola Sturgeon’s husband, Peter Murrell, arrested in SNP funding inquiry | Scotland | The Guardian seems he's been released now Minister slams fellow Tory MP Scott Benton as he loses whip for reportedly offering to lobby for gambling firm (msn.com) another one.. Vontobel Terminates Business with Clients Residing in Russia (finews.asia) Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth on Twitter: "The MOVE Index is the bond market equivalent of the VIX Index. It measures the implied volatility of 1-month options from the 2-year note to the 30-year bond. Today's closed was 153.9. The shaded area is inside 2 standard deviations. So, 153.9 above the shaded area means it is… https://t.co/CrZoTxoNUs" / Twitter Montreux Jazz Festival: The birthplace of music legends (theswisstimes.ch) sure is !

Thanks to Harvard University, you can now virtually enter the Great Pyramid of Giza in 3D and 360º - see link below JOLTS sees a big decline. 9.931M vs expectations of 10.5M >>> 2yUST yields quickly dropped about 10bps to current 3.87%, USDollar followed, GOLD setting itself up for new highs, equity markets rallied initially, but 'fatigued' into the close, earnings report and Easter weekend looming (NFP Friday - remember most markets closed though) “The rally in the S&P500 since the beginning of the year has been driven by 20 stocks, the market cap of the remaining 480 stocks has basically not gone up.” Credit Suisse chair Axel Lehmann apologises to angry shareholders at fractious final AGM >>> is it that simple ?. Credit Suisse collapse may put Singapore in the spotlight >>> anecdotally, already has.. >>> today we get the UBS AGM, the story is not over, Finma wants powers to impose fines - higher capital requirements will apply to new UBS White House : (it had to come out...).. given market uncertainty, we do not believe that OPEC production cuts are prudent, we made it clear to OPEC.. (that's because the U.S took too long to refill the SPR..hardly even started by all accounts) RBNZ hikes rates by surprise 50 bps, says inflation still too high What are the criminal charges against Donald Trump?. The former president pleaded not guilty to a litany of alleged crimes in Manhattan district court India rejects China’s attempt to rename places in disputed areas . China renames 11 places in the disputed border region as it claims sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh Italy temporarily banned ChatGPT. It’s the first western country to take action against an AI chatbot, and the ban comes as the country is also mulling limits on the use of English language GOLD prices closing in all time high sin USD terms, senior and junior minors still 20-30% below highs of 2022 >>> the equity part of the market will soon 'have' to start to believe in the move Last few days, undaunted by Market Meltup, Wilson and Kolanovic double down on doom, see stocks retesting 2022 lows >>> many been calling equites down all the way up, we would keep 4100/4200 as a pretty hard level to break ahead of/post earnings reports on valuation ground JPMorgan's Dimon says US banking turmoil not over, sees long repercussions, The world’s most powerful banker wants Congress to think long and hard before taking any ill-advised actions against a financial industry reeling from two of the worst failures in U.S. history Emmanuel Macron to urge China’s Xi Jinping to drop support for Russia over Ukraine war BBG - The German arms industry is a prime beneficiary of global rearmament . Germany ranked sixth in arms exports in 2022, trailing the US, France, Russia, China, and Italy To keep inflation on a sustained downward path to 2% and keep inflation expectations anchored, FED's Mester said she sees monetary policy moving "somewhat further into restrictive territory this year, with the fed funds rate moving above 5% and the real fed funds rate staying in positive territory for some time.” Markets : Crude steady after OPEC+ up move, supply will tighten in months ahead though Inflation is still an issue, clearly . Off the highs, but still too high, this will have implication still to indebted business models in months and years ahead Shaky banking models, only means higher and more expensive credit conditions , cost of capital etc in particularly to weaker credit and higher fees for all ! SPX500 advance should pause if not stall into 4100/4200 , ahead of earnings reports, valuation getting stretched, although lower USD and yields giving 'breathing space' to markets USDollar stays weak(er), clearly macro data and rates matter, FX market price action is quick to sell $ on weaker data. CHF, JPY, Gold in tandem GOLD making it's move slowly but surely, perfect storm really, also Gold/Copper ratio clear signal usually of slowdown ahead and/or mild recession , #NEM - Newmount Corp vs #XAUUSD price >>> equity side of things clearly been lagging - chart below Emmanuel Macron to urge China’s Xi Jinping to drop support for Russia over Ukraine war | Financial Times (ft.com) Zelenskyy visits Poland to thank ally and meet Ukrainians | AP News RBNZ hikes rates by surprise 50 bps, says inflation still too high (msn.com) Fed's Mester says rate target will need to go over 5% (msn.com) What are the criminal charges against former president Trump? (qz.com) Trump charged with 34 felony counts in hush money scheme | AP News Jamie Dimon shareholder letter warns against 'knee-jerk' banking oversight | Fortune Credit Suisse shareholders: We 'feel completely cheated' (theswisstimes.ch) Credit Suisse Collapse May Put Singapore in the Spotlight (finews.asia) The world most shorted bank now is TD Bank, Canada's 2nd largest bank, bigger shorts than against JPM, Citi, BoA etc Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Feb JOLTs report bullish for stocks, w/number of job openings dropping 630k to 9.93mln, lowest since May21, a figure Fed is likely going to be pleased with. Largest decreases in job openings in professional & business services (-278k); health care (-150k). (via @knowledge_vital) https://t.co/VNrXb1cJnm" / Twitter Go Inside the Great Pyramid of Giza in 3D | Digital Giza (mused.org) sign-up! The Swiss cantons where expats don’t settle (theswisstimes.ch) Beware! Postfinance Partners With Sygnum Bank to Offer Cryptocurrencies | Fintech Schweiz Digital Finance News – FintechNewsCH India rejects China’s attempt to rename places in disputed areas | News | Al Jazeera A new law proposed in Italy would ban English — and violators could face fines of up to $110K - CBS News US job openings fall below 10 million for first time since 2021: Report (business-standard.com) Could oil prices hit $100 per barrel again? We ask the experts (cityam.com) let's hope not, won't help bring inflation lower! #NEM - Newmount Corp vs #XAUUSD price >>> equity side of things clearly been lagging

Finland is today set to become the 31st member of NATO , completing a tumultuous process of accession sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that upended the European security landscape "SPR releases in the US and in France, and the refusal to refill the US SPR in fiscal year 2023 (although WTI reached lows that were previously characterized as sufficient to refill) contributed to the OPEC+ decision to cut" - GS >>>> the timing of OPEC+ to maximum pain is almost perfect ECB Warns of risks posed by €1 Trillion Real Estate Funds (it's already moved a lot but ok..) UBS : Ermotti said 7years ago that there was only space for -1- big bank in CH. Had Credit Suisse not been sold to UBS, it would have gone bankrupt next trading day, causing global financial crisis, SNB's Schlegel said >>> AGM today - link to Webcast below BERIT : Blackstone clients asked to pull $4.5bn from a closely followed real estate fund in March , even as the firm’s executives were promoting investment opportunities in the sector that they said would arise from US economic turbulence, only $666mio were allowed to be withdrawn >>> money travels fast from one pocket of liquidity to the next, it's not all as easy as transferring cash from one bank account to a MM Fund, using a mobile phone.. After Italy, Germany considers banning ChatGPT cver data privacy issues Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP growth tracking is down to 1.7% vs the 3.5% est less than two weeks ago. Notably weaker momentum as we head into Q1 earnings season, ISM was pretty weak yesterday coming in at 46.3 - lowest since May 2020 Trump flies to New York, gets ready for historic arrest Markets : Crude, as argued last week, one way or another, after #capitulation - it's time to step in USDollar remains soft(er) after weaker data, US yields dropped yesterday on weaker U.S data with 2y UST back below 4% area Equity's momentum as we pick up Q2 remains firm, still a few too many shorts out there ahead of Easter week-end possibly, seasonality and low vols helping clearly, earnings reports next.SPX500 resistance around 4100. DAX just 500points off all time highs set in late 2021 - amazing Generalversammlung – Credit Suisse (credit-suisse.com) RBA makes surprising decision on official cash rate (brokernews.com.au) And..Australia bans TikTok on government devices over security concerns After Italy, Germany Could Block ChatGPT Over Data Security Concerns (news18.com) Macro Digest Confusion reigns supreme | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Steen's latest / Summary: The sudden demise of Silicon Valley Bank and ensuing turmoil in banks has laid bare the vulnerabilities of many banks and the risk that rising bank funding costs will impact the credit cycle and bring recession risks dramatically forward. But expectations for both the speed of the incoming economic impact and for the Fed to cut rates already in Q3 looks unrealistic. JPMORGAN: “Any decline in yields is not a sign that the FED is about to bring a punch bowl .. but rather a sign that recession probability has increased. .. we believe stocks are set to weaken for the remainder of the year and one should be [underweight] from here.” [Kolanovic] Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth on Twitter: "ISM is out today at 46.3, the lowest since May 2020, the month after the COVID recession ended, ISM started surveying in 1948. As this chart shows, this is the 16th time the ISM has been 46.3 or lower. 12 (75%) of these instances, the economy was either in recession or about to… https://t.co/5Pw5zfFOrs" / Twitter Blackstone fund hit by $4.5bn in withdrawal requests despite property pitch | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> Blackstone restricting redemptions on their flagship real estate fund (BREIT) for the 5th month in a row and effectively locking the door for investors that want out. Manhattan real estate sales plunge 38%, but cash deals hit record (cnbc.com) Il y a sept ans, Sergio Ermotti planifiait déjà le rachat de Credit Suisse | PME Finland to join Nato military alliance on Tuesday - BBC News Where Have All the Deposits Gone? Do We Really Need Federal Deposit Insurance? | LinkedIn Israel beats Scotland to win world's best single malt whisky (cityam.com) Whaoo, who would have thought !!? Virgin Orbit: Richard Branson's rocket firm files for bankruptcy - BBC News Defiant Trump flies to New York to ready for historic arrest of ex-president - IBTimes India Investec and Rathbones set to merge in creation of a £100bn wealth management firm (cityam.com) DAX was around 12K in early October 2022 - what a rally

Inflation changed everything (early 2022 warnings..), which was always going to bring a bond sell-off, higher volatility (peak vol March 2023..) and market uncertainty. Our systematic approach to balance-sheet analysis helped us select solid investment opportunities for our clients, and avoid the pitfalls of highly indebted balance-sheets

OPEC+ announces surprise oil cuts , while U.S. calls the move inadvisable."Saudi officials are at pains to say they don’t have a particular price target. But from their actions it’s clear Riyadh wants to keep Brent crude as close to $100 a barrel as it can." CS : Credit Suisse Generalversammlung could/should be pretty lively tomorrow, live-Webcast access below in link.. >>> in the week ahead we also get RBA to hike a final 25bps tomorrow (to.385%), as per current expectations, same for RBNZ. Trump will be arrested tomorrow and note U.S NFP in on Good Friday (markets closed) Swiss prosecutor opens probe into Credit Suisse takeover. Investigation will examine potential breaches of criminal law by officials, regulators and bank executives. Good news in inflation front : Consumer prices increased last month by 2.9% year on year, down from 3.4% in February, marking the 13th month in succession that price increases have exceeded the SNB's 0-2% goal and Switzerland March manufacturing PMI 47.0 vs 48.9 expected Can Central Banks really achieve a) price stability b) maintain economic growth and c) have financial stability at the same time? . .. would love to believe they can, but I suspect that's ''mission impossible'' Tesla made a record number of deliveries in the first quarter. Globally, the EV maker near00K cars, an increase that came after it cut prices in January to boost demand Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the future of AI / Lex Fridman Podcast Scientists find deepest fish ever recorded at 8,300 metres underwater near Japan This move signals Saudi Arabia “ will seek to short circuit further macro sell-offs & that Jay Powell is not the only central banker that matters… Washington & Riyadh simply have different price targets for their key policy initiatives:” RBC’s Helima Croft Trump clearly not been quiet about his arrest, he camera is on him and he loves it Whopping 82% of Berlin’s voters refused to support 2030 climate neutrality Markets can debate all they want whether FED and other CB moves in March were QE or not, the fact is Nasdaq 100 and the combined balance sheet of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of Japan moved in tandem. . Markets : Crude prices jump about 10% on OPEC+ move overnight, prices still up about 5% or so, was inevitable.. and can almost be sure the U.S SPR has not been refilled yet.. SPX continues to trade trapped inside the big 3850/4200 range. Lot of money has been lost by people trying to push momentum both ways. Short term resistance at 4100, support at 4000 Bonds on the backfoot as we start Q2, rising in tandem with crude prices USD remains soft, CHF should weaken (inflation lower and safe haven bid weakened by recent events), but technically, USD sub 0.9150 CHF is clearly bearish USD (maybe best via EURCHF or even GBPCHF). FXEMG doing ok, bar few usual suspects. JPY focus in Q2 with possible YCC move (BoJ should NOT wait till yield shit 50bps again..) Generalversammlung – Credit Suisse (credit-suisse.com) Who are Credit Suisse's biggest losers in the UBS takeover? (qz.com) Julius Baer CEO warns Switzerland not to jeopardise status as banker to super-rich | Financial Times (ft.com) >>> Rickenbacher said that the Swiss financial marketplace was an “outstanding ecosystem” but was being tested. “It is obvious that Swiss banks being in the international press is adding to this pressure and we as Swiss bankers have to respond.” UBS May Cut Up to 30,000 Jobs (finews.asia) Swiss inflation eases in March as fuel costs fall (msn.com) Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the Future of AI | Lex Fridman Podcast #367 - YouTube >>> nearly through it... well worth a listen!!..they talk about it all , excitement, share programmers and geeks and it's terrifying prospects of AI more broadly speaking.. OPEC+ announces surprise oil cuts, while U.S. calls the move inadvisable (cnbc.com) Analysis: Saudi prince pivots to peace after years of war | AP News Tesla reduces prices of Model S and Model Y (qz.com) Tesla Rival Lucid Has Really Bad News About Its Electric Vehicles - TheStreet Twitter's debt and value have plunged painfully since Elon Musk takeover: sources (nypost.com) Firm at centre of Sunak conflict of interest row attended Downing Street event | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian Sanna Marin concedes defeat in Finland election as centre-right Orpo claims victory (msn.com) Plan to end grazing on Dartmoor ‘threatens ponies’ (thetimes.co.uk) Why ?..we should stop interfering US economic data could drive gold even higher (thearmchairtrader.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany where rate shock is hitting housing mkt. Volume of new mortgages more than halved in Feb2023 YoY. 54% decline is worst on record. Total new mortgage business of €12bn is lowest in >12yrs, does not even take into account inflation https://t.co/AiEkzSetOf https://t.co/4ih9tOc9MJ" / Twitter Could London be next? Paris bans e-scooters after mini referendum (cityam.com) Sacre bleu ! DeSantis faces political peril with Trump indictment | The Hill Scientists find deepest fish ever recorded at 8,300 metres underwater near Japan | Fish | The Guardian Berlin vote in favour of tighter emission target fails – EURACTIV.com Whopping 82% Of Berlin’s Voters Refused To Support 2030 Climate Neutrality SPX500 - choppy big range - a lot more going on underneath though, NQ also benefited greatly from larger Central Bank balance-sheet, whether its QE or not, never mind

It's worth remembering that in March 2020, investors trying to quickly pull their money out of money market funds nearly wrecked the financial system and forced the Fed to step in. Now there's a record amount of money in MMFs / Thread >> March Madness over, a reminder for markets/investors/funds to do their due-diligence (don't rely on others..), better risk management (there is always some risk..) and less leverage going forward, these markets always prone to 'unlock' at any time and create opportunities! Prices paid component with Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index continued to fall in March, emphasizing that maximum inflation-/supply-chain pressures are in past / Thread, JPM now sees Headline CPI YoY falling under 4% by the July print France bought 65,000 tons of LNG using the Chinese yuan , the liquified natural gas was bought from the UAE Former Credit Suisse chairman Urs Rohner says he will not be returning any of the CHF52 million he earned while working at the failed bank Citi US economic surprises index has basically been printing new recent highs on a daily basis since mid January . You don't trade SPX on the back of the CSI, but that gap still looks very wide.. Significance of Jack Ma’s Reappearance Should Not be Underestimated Turkish parliament ratifies Finland's NATO accession as Sweden kept waiting BOJ's Ueda could shake Global Financial markets by changing Kuroda policy >> Q2?, mixed data, but Tokyo core CPI beat expectations 3.4% vs 3.2% Kashkari Says unclear if SVB collapse will cause Credit Crunch >>> no, it doesn't have to, but what is clear stress will lead to credit contraction, more expensive financing for 'weak balance-sheets', if it gets big then it will become deflationary over time.. A grand jury in New York has indicted former President Donald Trump in relation to a "hush money" payment to Stormy Daniels US urges Americans in Russia to leave "Immediately" Disney cuts metaverse division under Iger's restructuring Markets : U.S 1year CDS much talked about - all time highs >>> clearly some 'hedging' going on related to long-end and debt ceiling risk towards end of Q2 #XAGUSD needs to clear $24-25+ and it could be super interesting for the bulls (chart below) USDollar mixed but broadly speaking softer into month-end, with CROSSJPY's higher (higher yields, riskon and BoJ policy which remains far from clear cut..) SPX500 is higher than it was a month ago, after this banking crisis.. (only few badly managed names went down..no depositors lost money..), and is up about 5-6% YTD >> and a whole lot more going underneath with mega caps, NQ, financials, energy, rotations galore! Crude has stabilized, off 'capitulation' lows from 2weeks ago If market is right on Fed, the economy has to nosedive, and fast. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) 15mins as usual well worth listening - charts in there too United States CDS 1 Year USD Bond Chart - Investing.com Chart >>> all about debt ceiling , and perhaps you add all the talks about 'long usd decline' etc etc which has been talked about for the last 20y, in fact for ever really... maybe it''ll be different this time, stay tuned! #XAU etc... Turkey’s parliament ratifies Finland’s Nato membership amid alarm over Russia’s Ukraine invasion - Independent.ie Leeb – JP Morgan’s Massive Gold Derivative Short Position May Be Larger Than The Bank’s Assets | King World News Dani Burger on Twitter: "It's worth remembering that in March 2020, investors trying to quickly pull their money out of money market funds nearly wrecked the financial system and forced the Fed to step in. Now there's a record amount of money in MMFs. https://t.co/TvZxE3aa46" / Twitter This is what Yellen is worried about Yellen says US bank rules may be too loose, need to be re-examined | Reuters Credit Suisse Cuts Transformation Awards (finews.asia) Can't believe they even thought about doing it !!! BOJ's Ueda Could Shake Global Financial Markets by Changing Kuroda Policy - Bloomberg Still remains a risk for Q2 - best guess something happens over next few months, no better time to abandon YCC now that 10y JGB yields are 32bps... (don't do when its 50 and on ceiling..) US urges Americans in Russia to leave "Immediately" - Mehr News Agency Opinion: Significance of Jack Ma’s Reappearance Should Not be Underestimated - Caixin Global / slightly slower data overnight - Manufacturing PMI 51.9 in March vs 52.6 in Feb China completes first yuan-settled LNG trade | Nasdaq Gold bull market to push for record highs - fund manager Eric Strand | Kitco News The overall market has priced in the 'higher for longer' risk in rates, from here #XAUUSD mostly has tailwinds coming its way, might have to be patient, as usual etc... Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "Prices paid component with ⁦@RichmondFed⁩ Manufacturing Index continued to fall in March, emphasizing that maximum inflation-/supply-chain pressures are in past https://t.co/RdOozaR58M" / Twitter - chart Revolut’s board frustrated by fintech company’s response to audit warning | Financial Times (ft.com) CS exec: I’m not giving my paycheck back (theswisstimes.ch) Bankers found guilty of helping to hide Putin’s millions by Swiss court | Financial Times (ft.com) Sam Bankman-Fried Pleads Not Guilty To New Bribery Charge—In An Untucked Dress Shirt (Photos) (forbes.com) Donald Trump latest: Former president expected to surrender in coming days after being indicted | US News | Sky News CBS News on Twitter: "BREAKING: A grand jury in New York has indicted former President Donald Trump in relation to a "hush money" payment to Stormy Daniels. "For the first time ever in American history a former President of the United States has been indicted." https://t.co/mhwoHssZe8 https://t.co/xRRYEkKAns" / Twitter Disney cuts metaverse division under Iger's restructuring (msn.com) XAGUSD long-term - this is where we need to trade for bulls to get exited ! 25+?..

Spain Inflation halves but , core pressures highlight ECB Bind. Consumer prices rose 3.1% from year ago in March; est. 3.7%.Europe’s natural gas costs have sunk back below pre-war levels >>> energy helping clearly, finally, but still, NRW, Germany soft-lower as well, seals a softer EU CPI later on FT- How wild was Treasury trading this month? some great chart in their article, as we said, never been wilder! Credit Suisse whistle blowers say Swiss bank has been helping wealthy Americans dodge U.S. taxes for years, AND...see below... the CS board were planning to award themselves a transformation share award a the AGM, I mean seriously...! Britain secures agreement to join Indo-Pacific trade bloc . The U.K. will be the first new nation to join the CPTPP since it was set up in 2018 >> not huge value in terms of trade, but still another step in the right direction! Given how fast money can leave a bank these days electronically --- the bank lines outside in the street in the old days during a run was a form of liquidity management .... cash could only leave so fast... Now, those folks could read some silly comments on Twitter... and move their money (10's of billions..) from their Iphones in minutes-hours... The UK’s ‘green day’ has turned into a fossil fuel bonanza – dirty money powers the Sunak government Thread / As the Fed’s interest-rate hikes sent bond prices plunging last year, some of the country’s largest banks used a simple accounting manoeuvre to help keep billions of dollars of losses from piling up The letter urges technology companies to immediately cease training any A.I. systems that would be “more powerful than GPT-4,” which is the latest large language processing A.I. developed by San Francisco company OpenAI UBS: Kelleher's daring high stakes coup with Ermotti US : FDIC "may lean on the big banks to cover $23bn in failure costs" Goldman's Callahan with some color: "... the MAGMA + NVDA cohort has added a collective ~ $620bn of market cap since the regional bank issues began, which compares to ~ $950bn of collective market cap lost by the remaining 494 companies in the S&P " Central Bankers Warn Companies On Fatter Profit Margins - FT >> is that the job of a central banker ? ECB's Schnabel Says Eurozone Banks Not Seen Deposit Outflows' >> aggregate level, totally true, EUR MM funds are a 3rd of those of the US and depositors are fleeing into longer dated-maturity deposits VIX vs MOVE is at an extreme that suggests the relationship may see some mean reversion. Whether that means MOVE falling, VIX rising, or both. Source: Refinitiv China and France have completed their first LNG gas trade using the Chinese Yuan >> will add to the articles calling for the end of USD dominance etc etc Markets : Banking crisis of March 2023 : 3 badly managed banks went down, SPX500 still 4K, VIX hardly moved, DB CDS story (note CDS markets are SO LIGHT and so easily manipulated..! >>> peak fear was last week, since then we all breathe , plenty of cash on the side, few signs of inflation peaking in few places, that need to be confirmed in Q2.. The bad news though is that lending standards will most likely tighten further (again bad for over leveraged names, no real matter to sound, low debt & well managed corporates) USDollar remains 'soft' ish really, never really got a BIG bid on all this risk-off in March eithe r, as it often did in the past years, even EMGFX has remained well behaved in all this SPX500 4K still-again , though a LOT going underneath as usual, big 'recession' rotation, China, KWEB, REITS and so on. Nasdaq heads for one of its best quarters in a decade , up 17% in Q1, oversold + low rates + FED balance-sheet increase all clearly helping GOLD, Silver, copper and crude all stayed firm and/bounce crude futures got ''smocked..''10days ago (all part of the capitulation that went on due to super HIGH vols in rates market..) and here we are again How wild was Treasury trading this month? | Financial Times (ft.com) Never wilder! Credit Suisse whistleblowers say bank has been helping Americans dodge U.S. taxes (cnbc.com) really!!!?? (Dow Jones) -- Credit Suisse Group AG is withdrawing certain proposals it planned to put to shareholders at its annual general meeting in early April, citing the planned merger with UBS Group AG. The troubled Swiss bank said late Wednesday that it is pulling proposals on the discharge of members of the board of directors and the executive board for the 2022 financial year, as well as a separate proposal on a one-time deferredshare-based so-called transformation award for the executive board Britain secures agreement to join Indo-Pacific trade bloc – POLITICO Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak: Pause more powerful A.I. | Fortune and yet.. Musk urges pause on training AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 | Automotive News (autonews.com) MS - Mike Wilson thinks stocks will sell off as investors realise earnings guidance looks unrealistic. This is when the equity risk premium typically reprices and stocks may finally get ahead of the downside Mike sees in earnings estimates… just as bond markets have become dependent on Fed guidance over the past decade, the equity markets have become dependent on company earnings guidance. Given the events of the past few weeks, research thinks guidance is looking more and more unrealistic, and equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates ahead of any hard data changes. This is typically how bear markets end—i.e., P/E multiples fall precipitously and unexpectedly, catching many investors off guard. ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq on Twitter: "To anyone who was not trading in 2004-2006 or 2011 or 201& … this dedollarization bullshit shows up every now and then. Don’t worry—it’s pure engagement bait, mostly from people who know better. I’ve linked articles from 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011 and https://t.co/CETPdMjHhr…" / Twitter $$$ downside - this time may be different etc etc or maybe not Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "APOLLO: “.. survey-based and market-based measures of inflation expectations are falling quickly, and the Fed will soon be talking about this as an important reason why they can allow themselves to be more dovish and ultimately start cutting rates ..” [Slok] #FOMC https://t.co/DZgPjmx2q3" / Twitter Nick Timiraos on Twitter: "As the Fed’s interest-rate hikes sent bond prices plunging last year, some of the country’s largest banks used a simple accounting manoeuvre to help keep billions of dollars of losses from piling up via @JonathanWeil https://t.co/InIABI7bte https://t.co/9UWBkVOSID" / Twitter The UK’s ‘green day’ has turned into a fossil fuel bonanza – dirty money powers the Sunak government | George Monbiot | The Guardian sad! The US Soldiers Leaking Nuclear Secrets | Investigators - YouTube so careless ! good grief What's Going On With Enovix Stock Today? (msn.com) Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russian troops getting 'slaughtered' in Bakhmut (telegraph.co.uk) wild scenes-good grief, make it stop! King Charles III to Speak at German Parliament, Bundestag, During State Visit - Bloomberg NASDAQ - decision time as we start Q2, earnings report! 20% off Dec 2022 lows

Finland is the world's happiest country . Now it's giving away free trips to show travelers why A Single Bet on Deutsche Bank’s Credit Default Swaps Is Seen Behind Friday’s Rout - what a market! so illiquid and nuts as we keep warning folks in single names, when they come into focus, for whatever reason, there is little or no liquidity... CDS seems to be the new game in town doe daily punters.. #BABA plans to split its $220 billion empire into six main units that will individually raise funds and explore initial public offerings, the biggest overhaul of China’s e-commerce leader since its inception more than two decades ago Michael Barr: “ SVB failed because the bank's management did not effectively manage its interest rate and liquidity risk , and the bank then suffered a devastating and unexpected run by its uninsured depositors in a period of less than 24 hours.”. ..all they had to do is manage risk of whether rates went up or not..hummm >>> The Silicon Valley Bank failure brought the health of the US banking sector into question. Large and small banks are very different in the US, especially after the 2008 crisis (Thread below) Depositors have withdrawn 214 billion euros from EU banks over the past five month s, with outflows hitting a record level in February: ECB data. The withdrawals in the five months since October have been worth 1.5% of eurozone deposits (..only..) . U.S : Small banks' (not in the top 25) deposits fell $125bil last week, $65bil of which went to the top 25 large banks, not good for communities as small community banks will have to t ighten credit availability Wildfires in Spain (in March!!..) are a sign of climate emergency, says the country’s PM >>> It was 27 °C in Lisbon yesterday.... Insane " virtually every client conversation reveals that investors expect something else to break in the market though there is no consensus about what that could be" - JPM Swiss Parliament pushed through a 'SolarExpress' program last fall to install lots of solar projects in the Alps. They forgot a few things ....see thread below Australia's Feb inflation slows to 8-month low , adding to rate pause case, 6.8% (exp 7.1% and prior 7.4%) Incoming BOJ deputy head brushes aside near-term twe ak to easy policy Sweden's real r etail sales are down a whopping 9.5% YoY >>> 'the retail sales volume is now back at a similar level as before the pandemic - whaoo Despite banking crisis, GfK consumer confidence Index improved for 6th time in a row , from -30.6 to -29.5 (was +10 pre covid though, so long way to go) BRICS should add new members and counter the dollar's dominance, says Jim O’Neill , who coined the acronym after which the bloc is named UBS' Kelleher : This not a Swiss solution, it's a global solution - see chart below Markets : NQ : clearly mega cap names been benefiting lately , not that positive under the hood /- Thread below. SPX500 retakes 4K, 4050+ would surprise the bears FXland, CROSSJPY's higher with rates bottoming last Friday, perhaps some quarter-end JPY selling and/or JPN lifers keen to buy foreign bonds into the new year.. BONDS - pretty crazy March - extreme levels of implied vols , daily volatily, completely crazy to think a 5mio CDS trade in DN could unravel markets last Friday.. (in a specific credit tranche) >>> PEAK worries, PEAK credit fear last week >>> still doesn't mean its over clearly still some fear in there clearly..it will take a while to heal Crude : we also saw some sort of capitulation sell-off last week, almost undeniable - recovery path from here, the U.S will probably buy for the SPR.. A Single Bet on Deutsche Bank’s Credit Default Swaps Is Seen Behind Friday’s Rout (yahoo.com) UBS re-appoints CEO Ermotti for Credit Suisse takeover - SWI swissinfo.ch Ermotti’s UBS record: solid but not all plain sailing - SWI swissinfo.ch Mark Minervini on Twitter: "Institutional money has been hiding in the old heavily weighted mega cap tech names, and that is propping up the Nasdaq Composite relative to the other indexes. However, when you look under the hood you see that only 20% of Nasdaq stocks are above their 50-day moving average… https://t.co/TL9IcTy8zp" / Twitter A bad day for Putin last 48hours: ⁃China renewed calls for de-escalation in Ukraine today and reminded Russia of its recent opposition to nuclear war days after Putin announced plans to deploy strategic arms in neighbouring Belarus ⁃Hungarian parliament approves Finland's NATO membership bid. ⁃Armenia plans to join the Rome Statute of the ICC ⁃Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark struck a deal to run their 200+ advanced fighter jets as a single fleet ⁃Bakhmut holds, despite all Russian efforts ⁃Russian bid for UN Nord Stream blast inquiry fails -France planning to give 40 Mirage200-9 fighter/interceptor jets to Ukraine -British Challenger Main Battle Tanks have arrived in Ukraine -German Leopard 2 tanks have arrived Eric Basmajian on Twitter: "The Silicon Valley Bank failure brought the health of the US banking sector into question. Large and small banks are very different in the US, especially after the 2008 crisis. Here are some of the differences and problem areas for small US banks 👇 1/" / Twitter Thick smoke clouds fill sky as hundreds of firefighters tackle Spanish wildfire (yahoo.com) It's only MARCH !!!! this is so bad, no much reporting about it all in the media - why ??? meanwhile in California.. its flooding How California floods affect US food prices - BBC News The Swiss Times on Twitter: "Yet another #Greenscam. #Swiss Parliament pushed through a 'SolarExpress' program last fall to install lots of solar projects in the Alps. They forgot a few things: The connection costs of running cables up the mountains is so expensive, few if any of the planned projects would… https://t.co/R7EoYHfsg7" / Twitter Finland gives away free trips to travelers who want to learn happiness (cnbc.com) France prosecutors raid Paris big banks in tax fraud sweep (msn.com) Sacre bleu ! France pension protests - latest: Paris descends into violence as protesters smash shops and riot police storm streets | World News | Sky News Jim O’Neill Urges BRICS Bloc to Expand, Challenge Dollar’s Dominance - Bloomberg What does it mean that India's population is about to overtake China? (cnbc.com) Whaoo Riyadh joins Shanghai Cooperation Organization as ties with Beijing grow | Reuters UBS - been CHF 10 - 20 range for 15years