FED hiked 25bps as expected, highest levels in 16years, should be the last one, though it remains pretty open for June. FFR back to 2006 levels. "We don't think it's going to be a smooth process. We're going to need to stay at this for a while" --Powell, on getting down to 2% inflation, "People did talk about pausing, just not at this meeting", one of the most striking to me was "we have raised by 500bp and unemployment is still at a 50 year low " and finally ' “we on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly, it will take some time. In that world, if that forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate to cut rates.” Citibank: Raised Base Lending Rate to 8.25% From 8.00%, Effective today...which probably means some of the credit card rates are nearer to 30%.. The US Treasury announced the 1st buyback scheme in almost 20years to improve market functioning Brexit ‘idiocy’ blamed for shrinking London stock market. EU departure has hurt London Stock Exchange's reputation, claims Arm founder “Kremlin UAV attack” (most) probably a false flag -propaganda / Thread below Three failed US banks had one thing in common: KPMG April ADP Payrolls +296k surpassing expectations of +150k.. No Recession on this basis >> As ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson put it, “The slowdown in pay growth gives the clearest signal of what's going on in the labor market right now,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Employers are hiring aggressively while holding pay gains in check as workers come off the sidelines. Our data also shows fewer people are switching jobs.” Carl Icahn’s fortune sank by an unprecedented 41% after Hindenburg Research accused him of using a “ponzi-like” economic structure Many grumblings about various short-selling of U.S regional banks... Sheila Bair to CFA event: “European banks are in better shape than US banks to my embarrassment.” Eli Lilly & Co.'s experimental drug for Alzheimer's slowed the progress of the disease in a final-stage trial, paving the way for the company to apply for US approval Denmark announced that it will cost some 1.5% of GDP to bring its defence up to scratch, probably low end of estimate... most of Europe will have to to the same! Markets : Next FED move is on the table, we may have seen the last hike, but it hard to cuts so soon, given Powell's risk of sticky inflation and still pretty strong employment data (ADP y'day) USD/JPY weakens, gives up all post BoJ gains (pretty much), GOLD tested 2075$ on lower UST yields AND the PacWest news after the close. EURNOK next 12! BCOM vs USD - reverse correlation - intriguing ! USDollar going south and so are commodities >>> market pricing in a bigger risk of US slowdown, recession Equity markets risk lower - systematic funds/CTA's been buying HUGE on these low vols lately , longest position is over 1year, watch out if we head lower ( #convexity etc) Crude crushed, together with other commods, higher rates increasing chance of recession WTI chart : Crude oil - 2023 Data - 1983-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart (tradingeconomics.com) Fed Funds futures' pricing : -5.09% in June and July -4.41% by January 2024 -3.9% by April 2024 -3.2% by August 2024 -2.95% by November 2024 -2.75% by Feb 2025 Fed raises US interest rates to highest in 16 years - BBC News Rate decision May 2023 (norges-bank.no) Apple's Steve Wozniak warns A.I. could be used by 'evil people' after signing letter with Tesla's Elon Musk | Fortune A.I. enthusiasm is responsible for the bulk of the stock market’s gain this year (cnbc.com) Quarterly Refunding Statement of Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Josh Frost | U.S. Department of the Treasury Sergej Sumlenny on Twitter: "THREAD I think the “Kremlin UAV attack” is a false flag. Here is why: 1) Several videos in high quality and color appeared, from CCTV cameras. All CCTV cams around Kremlin are under full Kremlin control. Nobody may leak them without permission. The Kremlin wants us to see it. /1" / Twitter Jeremy Schwartz on Twitter: "Sheila Bair to CFA event: “European banks are in better shape than US banks to my embarrassment.” She gives credit to @ecb stress tests being more stringent and better than @federalreserve stress tests particularly calling out tests sensitive to inflation, rates being better" / Twitter Brexit 'idiocy' to blame for shrinking London stock market, Arm founder says (telegraph.co.uk) KPMG is common factor among 3 US bank failures in last 2 months; here's how - BusinessToday Warning of summer water shortages after dry winter - BBC News good grief - here we go again...have you installed a few water tankers for the garden yet ?.. Carl Icahn’s Wealth Plunges $10 Billion on Hindenburg Short-Seller Report (yahoo.com) Carl Icahn's net worth plunges $10 billion in a day | Fortune what a story Eli Lilly Drug Slows Alzheimer's Disease, Study Finds | MENAFN.COM Good news ! Another Bank On The Brink: PacWest Stock Crashes 53% As It Reportedly Weighs Sale (forbes.com) markets go from one target to the next, FED WILL have to be creative about it all or there is a long list of casualties possible there! UBS Seeks to Complete Credit Suisse Takeover by Early June (finews.asia) That's fast ! have a great day Team PVM

FOMC later on today, vols moved up a little yesterday, short-term vols mainly VIX1D etc, lets see what Powell has to say >>> after todays 25bps hike (priced in), implied rates pricing in a 40bp cut by end of the year, this is what matters : ''what happens next'', complicated picture with still sticky inflation, regional banks issues and various risk of slowdown (manufacturing + commercial real-estate risk etc), Powell best have a cunning plan, ''who's going to stop cash leaving regional banks when MMfund rates are 5% tomorrow ? '' is a question I'm often asked these days.. Yellen warns that 1st June could be the X date (much earlier than the usually expected July time - her estimate most likely conservative, aiming at putting pressure on Congress). Echoing Yellen's concerns, the CBO issued a statement saying there was "a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June." Druckenmiller, the hedge fund investor and long-time deficit hawk, said the current impasse over the debt ceiling is dwarfed by the dangers of unchecked future government spending Stock market reforms aim to revitalise City of London They (the market) didn’t wait long to go after one bank ( after FRB fallout..) .. At some point yesterday, All 143 holdings in the regional bank ETF ( #KRE ) were trading lower Markets : GOLD back up on U.S debt ceiling issue and banking sector woes CRUDE , 1month after the surprise OPEC+ output cut, we are back to pre cut levels VIX1D up almost 100% yesterday.. . >>> with all these very short-term indicators/options, markets can do silly things day-to-day USD remains soft going into FOMC - apart form USDJPY over the last few days, most USD pairs still struggling Implied rates currently pricing a hike of 25bps today and some 40bps cuts by end of 2023 (and more cuts in 2024... pretty extreme inversion that has supported NQ lately...) - what happens in the strip 2023/24 rates is all that matters to markets Debt ceiling: Janet Yellen warns US could run out of cash by 1 June - BBC News SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance CNBC Daily Open: The final hike? this is what most expect/priced in and hope for, thus implied lower into 2023 and 2024.. Banks cannot behave like start ups using a business model based on short term profits (cityam.com) >>> banks have to offer 'market' rates on deposit to keep deposits, but of they do their profitability will worsen big time, hence a very very tricky path for many banks Should investors take advantage of the low VIX ahead of FOMC | Saxo Group (home.saxo) (1) Bespoke on Twitter: "From today's construction spending data, infrastructure categories including water, sewage, and roads have seen a boom. Read more in tonight's Closer: https://t.co/tYNFSTLN6x https://t.co/wynTmb6tqV" / Twitter May Day in France: A flash point of unrest – POLITICO The Wave of Credit Suisse AT1 Lawsuits is Growing (finews.asia) Credit Suisse was cushioned against catastrophe, says regulator - SWI swissinfo.ch Russian spy network smuggles sensitive EU tech despite sanctions | Financial Times (ft.com) Ford Q1 earnings rebound as trucks and fleet sales drive profits | TechCrunch positive earnings, though EV part loosing money, it'0s getting very competitive out there (big investments etc) Stock market reforms aim to revitalise City of London; US regional bank shares hit again – business live (msn.com) Uber Q1 earnings: Ride-sharing giant meets expectations, bookings jump 19% year-over-year (msn.com) >>> must admit great service and much cheaper than officials cabs, rightly or wrongly this is where consumers go when times are harder ‘They can survive just fine’: Bernie Sanders says income over $1bn should be taxed at 100% | Bernie Sanders | The Guardian wait...what ???!? How conflict minerals make it into our phones (cnbc.com)

Happy May Day FED expected/priced to hike 25bps this week (what comes next is open to discussion), ECB and BoE also 25bps expected, NFP Friday and big earnings week still with last big megacap on Thursday-AAPL FRB taken over by regulators (auction was a fail..), then sold it to JPM..>>> JPMorgan to acquire First Republic’s deposits as FDIC steps in . Regulators announces deal and closure of embattled Californian bank after working through night, cost FDIC $13bn, FRB was once worth $40bn (shareholder cost), which bank is next? Researchers are scrambling to assess health and environmental impacts of SpaceX’s Starship Super Heavy test flight last week , which spread particulate matter far beyond the expected debris field Boris Johnson given £1m DONATION by former Brexit party backer - AFTER he left No. 10 Rating agency Fitch underestimates the impact of newly-approved structural reforms, including the pensions bill, said Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire after the credit rating agency announced it would downgrade France’s credit rating Brexit is killing the hospitality industry , with the number of venue closures rising sixfold in just a year, stark new data obtained exclusively by The Independent shows BRICS, as it stands, is already more relevant to the global economy than the G7. The latest IMF figures reveal that the existing five BRICS nations will contribute 32.1 percent to global growth, compared to the G7’s 29.9 percent MUNGER : “ Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago .. We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centres .. There’s a lot of agony out there.” Federal Reserve regulatory chief Michael Ba rr on Friday acknowledged that the central bank failed to properly oversee Silicon Valley Bank before its spectacular collapse — but placed some of the blame on his Trump-appointed predecessor Lawmakers introduce bill to block AI from launching nuclear weapons , push for more human control Markets : FAANGs came to the rescue of the indexes, not a great picture underneath it though, same for small vs big banks and so on SPX500 back into the 4150-4200 resistance zone (pretty easily really), NQ and megacaps doing a lot of the heavy lifting after their earnings reports last week Build up of USD shorts has been pretty decent last few weeks, so watch out with the 'CB week' coming up - IMM dollar selling drives gross short to 11-week high (let's be clear, always has been, but it's very tricky to find a clean net 'positioning' in currencies. JPY broken down through key supports, as BoJ seems is no hurry to do anything... (will taken them 18mos to study decision was the killer for markets..) Busy macro week with CB meetings with 25bps to be delivered by Fed, ECB and BoE, all but priced in, what comes after is what matters Market pre-celebrating the Fed pivot. Is it too complacent? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) De-dollarization kicks into high gear (thecradle.co) It's a long process, very long, but short-term market loves to talk about this CNBC on Twitter: "Is a strong U.S. dollar good for "the rest of the world"? When the dollar hit record highs in September 2022, many low-income countries that rely on the currency to function got into difficulty. Here's why. (via @CNBCi) https://t.co/cPnMgm9axu" / Twitter JPMorgan to acquire First Republic’s deposits as FDIC steps in | Financial Times (ft.com) Regulators close First Republic Bank, JPMorgan named as the buyer of $330B assets and deposits, FDIC on the hook for $13B | TechCrunch Fed blames Trump-era policies, SVB leaders — and itself — for bank’s stunning collapse - POLITICO Retirement confidence in the US tanks by largest margin since the Great Recession (yahoo.com) not too surprising! '''inflation changes every/many things '' SpaceX Starship explosion spread particulate matter for miles (cnbc.com) So very ESG like !? ALASTAIR CAMPBELL on Twitter: "I know they have a lot of friends in low and high places right now and they’re all busy looking after their own. But given there is so much below the tip of the corruption iceberg we don’t yet know about I am beginning to wonder whether we might one day see this lying charlatan…" / Twitter South Africa's Eskom loses $55 million a month to corruption (qz.com) How Switzerland is Putting Its Success Model at Risk (finews.asia) France’s Le Maire hangs on to debt reduction plan amid Fitch downgrade – EURACTIV.com Revealed: The great Brexit pubs and clubs shutdown (msn.com) Chinese hackers outnumber FBI cyber staff 50 to 1, director Wray says (cnbc.com) Charlie Munger reportedly warns of trouble for the U.S. commercial property market (cnbc.com) Liz Truss contests £12,000 bill over use of Chevening country house - BBC News :-) UKrunning extra evacuation flight to rescue Britons from Sudan | Evening Standard Lawmakers introduce bill to block AI from launching nuclear weapons, push for more human control (msn.com) ... regulate it all before it's too late!..

on this day 32years ago, April 28, 1991, women in the canton of Appenzell Inner Rhodes were able to take part in the Landsgemeinde for the first time... US economy is losing steam : The US GDP grew 1.1% in Q1 2023 ann, slower than the expected 1.9% & slower than previous quarter (2.6%). The main drag came from significantly lower inventory accumulation, while private consumption remained strong A tough day for Germany, GDP unchanged in Q1, and Q4 2022 was revised lower to 0.5%, Sbut...pain Q1 GDP up 0.5%, Italy up 0.5% and Portugal up 1.6%. North Rhine Westphalia April CPI +6.8% vs +6.9% y/y prior BOJ keeps ultra-low rates, decides to conduct policy review etc..meanwhile Tokyo core CPI (which exclude fresh food prices...) rose to 3.5% in April, higher than the expected 3.2% SNB Reports Q1 profit of 29bn, rebounds from 2022 record loss Goldman raises BoE terminal rate call to 5%, UK government to U-turn on plan to scrap or revise all EU law, Natwest profits soar but customers withdraw £1bn as cost of living and tax bills bite Amazon says cloud growth slowed as customers cut costs, "... AWS revenue rose 16% to $21.4 billion in the first quarter, the slowest growth rate since Amazon began breaking out the unit’s sales. " Spain's April heatwave! .. April !!!...how is it going to be in June, July ?.. insane ECB and BOE should tread carefully with rate hikes, IMF says >>> sounds like they telling them to only do 25bps! US officials reportedly coordinating rescue talks for First Republic Bank - hard to really tell! Sudan ceasefire extended Markets : U.S equity, DOW had its best day since Jan , just like that. SPX500 back to testing those resistance levels, lots of sector rotation underneath. NQ and the big megacaps etc, overall earnings looking better than many feared USDollar mixed, USDJPY higher after BoJ, USDCHF found some support 88.50 area, IF (big if) ECB only does 25bps next week, we could see top 1.1050 EURUSD in short-term Crude near range lows, ''macroeconomic concerns, prospective rake hikes and a slower-than-anticipated pick-up in Chinese demand have restricted oil price gains'' Other commods softer , wheat, corn, lumber, iron ore, copper you name it - slowdown ! but good signs for lower inflation in months ahead (hopefully!) High inflation still top concern for global economy Stocks make fresh bullish bid on earnings. BoJ to take its sweet time. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) >>> Troubled month for miners, led by iron ore producers ECB and BOE Should Tread Carefully With Rate Hikes, IMF Says - Bloomberg Reuters on Twitter: "U.S. officials lead urgent rescue talks for First Republic - sources https://t.co/OG8o3Ykrvz https://t.co/sTG9SOsQVe" / Twitter Tokyo CPI inflation beats expectations in April, signals pressure on BOJ (msn.com) Bank of Japan maintains monetary easing but plans review (yahoo.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "To note: Amazon's earnings just collapsed by ~50% YoY and the stock still trades at 115x earnings with virtually no revenue growth in real terms. https://t.co/87YGV0NlOE" / Twitter Cloud Slowdown Overshadows Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) Q1 Earnings Beat (msn.com) SNB Reports First-Quarter Profit, Rebounds From 2022 Record Loss - SWI swissinfo.ch The Swiss Miracle: Money - SWI swissinfo.ch 'Big Short' Michael Burry Warned of Cash Crunch, JPMorgan Exec Agrees (businessinsider.com) BRICS set to be bigger, stronger amid push for unity - World - Chinadaily.com.cn UK government to U-turn on plan to scrap or revise all EU law | Financial Times (ft.com) one wonder why ? what's changed their mind ? Spain's April heatwave: as temperatures peak, horses hit the trough (msn.com) Gold set for monthly gain on economic woes, Fed meet eyed (cnbc.com) Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower (cnbc.com) Oil set for second weekly drop as recession fears, rates cloud outlook (cnbc.com) Natwest profits soar but customers withdraw £1bn as cost of living and tax bills bite (cityam.com) Reuters on Twitter: "UN agencies hold a briefing in Geneva on the humanitarian situation in Sudan. Hundreds have been killed in the country after a power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted on April 15 https://t.co/tuwM5UzXzA" / Twitter Sudan ceasefire extended as remaining Britons told to head to airfield 'quickly' by foreign secretary | World News | Sky News Appenzell Inner Rhodes: the last Swiss canton to give women the vote - SWI swissinfo.ch 28 april 1991 And, National voting rights for women in Switzerland were introduced in 1971, 65 years after Finland, the first country in Europe to do so, and 12 years after the men of canton Vaud were the first in Switzerland to vote in favour of women’s suffrage – for cantonal decisions. A crackdown on betting firms can stop profits from problem gamblers (cityam.com) Ban credit cards to fund accounts.. and stop firms coming up with silly advertising on every football short and TV programs.. have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

Markets all about small vs megabanks, small cap (RTY underperformance) vs FAANGS, megacaps >>> The market cap of the largest 10 stocks relative to S&P 500 is at a 96%ile (!) relative to history. Last quarter’s performance was led by the narrowest leadership ever in an up market The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale . This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next few weeks/ING recap below and MS is more about peaking, not cutting The rescue of Credit Suisse was not the second time a major bank was saved – nor was that of UBS the first. B ack in the Great Depression, the Swiss government was compelled to save Schweizerische Volksbank (SVB...) from collapse – and that time, it had the backing of a parliamentary resolution A troubling economic trend as the shipments of boxes plunge downward -- to below 2009 lows/Thread Singapore announces new property cooling measures, additional buyer's stamp duty doubled to 60% for foreigners The House of Representatives has narrowly approved a Republican plan to raise the debt ceiling in a legislative victory for Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy that will do little to break the stalemate with the White House US bank regulators are weighing the prospect of downgrading their private assessments of First Republic Bank — a move that may curb access to Fed's lending facilities Antitrust regulators in the UK blocked Microsoft's takeover of Activision. Microsoft plans to appeal the decision and remains "fully committed" to acquiring the popular video game company The ECB balance sheet is shrinking again . Total assets dropped €16.7bn in the past week on ECB QT. ECB balance sheet now at €7,714.2bn, equal to 58% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 33%, SNB's 113%, BoJ's 131%/Holger Microsoft mentioned AI **50 times** on its earnings call --JPM Markets : Many have asked.. to be clear, we are not in the camp of a U.S default (CDS markets exploding higher etc), it surely can't happen! but a technical default (politics, delay) is not impossible , and clearly if we go to the wire (most likely scenario), the markets will continue to worry (USD, Gold etc) SPX500 put a top in around 4150, steady though, NQ holding as big mega caps report a beat, but HUGE divergences, it's ALL ABOUT small and big banks, RTY (underperformance) and megacaps etcetc USD stays defensive, slightly oversold short-term, nothing dramatic though Crude lower again, Gold/crude spread Higher Rates: Is the Peak Behind Us? | Morgan Stanley Central banks: Our latest calls ahead of a dramatic month | Article | ING Think April 2023 Newsletter: Navigating the Debt Ceiling Impasse - Lyn Alden well worth a read - good in depth research Why de-dollarization is inevitable - Opinion - Chinadaily.com.cn Steve Cortes on Twitter: "A troubling economic trend as the shipments of boxes plunge downward -- to below 2009 lows. Chart from Freight Waves I referenced on War Room this morning. https://t.co/2mYo4ePA6m" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from Germany where econ optimism keeps rising. The govt has raised its GDP forecast for this year to 0.4% from a previously predicted 0.2%, above BBG consensus. #Inflation forecast was adjusted down, w/rate for 2023 now seen 0.1ppt lower at 5.9%, below consensus. https://t.co/bFsqmfny48" / Twitter The Swiss state as ‘an unwilling banker’ - SWI swissinfo.ch How Switzerland is Putting Its Success Model at Risk (finews.asia) UK regulators blocked Microsoft's takeover of Activision (qz.com) US House Republicans pass debt ceiling bill in victory for Speaker Kevin McCarthy | Financial Times (ft.com) unlikely to ever become law though.. First Republic Bank turmoil pushes stock to plunge 95% this year as the lender seeks another lifeline from big US banks (yahoo.com) Exclusive: The Man Who Could Beat Erdoğan | Time Singapore announces new property cooling measures, additional buyer's stamp duty doubled to 60% for foreigners - CNA (channelnewsasia.com) 'Spectacular' Roman military camps almost 2,000 years old discovered | World News | Sky News Elizabeth Holmes Isn't Going to Prison Thursday After All (businessinsider.com) Defense of Ukraine on Twitter: "Bakhmut today. This city was peaceful and vibrant until recently. The “russian world” is equivalent to death. The “russian world” turns everything into a wasteland. 🎥 @Liberov https://t.co/zclYl1J5z8" / Twitter

Druckenmiller takes aim at dollar in sole conviction trade. Billionaire investor says last year’s dollar rally was the ‘biggest miss’ of his career Putin signs decree taking over Russian assets of two foreign firms A Republican bill authorizing a $1.5 trillion increase to the U.S. debt ceiling, coupled with deep spending cuts over a decade, hit a snag late on Tuesday , as a key committee delayed advancing the legislation to the full House of Representatives for debate and passage. Lower tax receipts prompt debt ceiling fears First Republic Bank shares fall 50% after reporting dramatic slump in deposits >>> can expect eventual govt receivership for the ailing bank after it exhausts private sector solutions such as asset sales and finding a buyer, both of which appear difficult Latest economic figures show Australia’s inflation easing ahead of RBA interest rate decision The consumer price index for the first three months of 2023 has come in at an annual rate of 7%, down from the 32-year high of 7.8% Britons ‘need to accept’ they’re poorer, says Bank of England economist - thank you so much Germany : consumer confidence keeps rising for a 7th consecutive month as income expectations brightened on easing energy bills . GfK German Consumer Index climbs to -25.7, highest in over a year, but remains well below prepandemic levels U.S : M2 money supply contracted by -1.2% m/m in March, worst on record / Thread Elon Musk’s latest round of price cuts has dropped his 2 best-selling vehicles to uncharted territory . At $46,990, base Model Y now costs $759 less than avg car in US. Differential between these figures has changed by >$20k since the middle of last year Commercial real estate loans in core Europe face $55 bln funding gap, report says Markets : SPX500 - 4150 tops confirmed (technically in short-term, weekly close will be key etc ) , risk now markets turn into sell rallies mood, need confirmation over next few days, price action key, but remember (BEWARE too quiet markets - few days ago..) USD stays under pressure on debt ceiling fears, USDJPY at risk with BoJ Friday, Druckenmiller (long-term plays) all the kind of stuff and techs weighing on the buck still Gold should continue to grind higher (or better have a decent rally on serious debt ceiling issues) Low volumes and low Eq vols recently not particularly bullish IMHO, must keep an eye underneath (large caps ok, but 80% of stocks are not..)..but jury is still out, commods lower pointing towards slowdown (sticky inflation and already 150bps of Fed cuts priced in..) Druckenmiller takes aim at dollar in sole conviction trade | Financial Times (ft.com) Daily Technical Update - 24.04.23 - YouTube 5mins - quick walk through - top Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter: "M2 money supply contracted by -1.2% m/m in March, worst on record https://t.co/YHnNCl7noi" / Twitter Latest economic figures show Australia’s inflation easing ahead of RBA interest rate decision | Australian economy | The Guardian De-Dollarization: Central Banks Lead Revolt Against USD and Shift to Gold (businessinsider.com) First Republic Bank shares fall 50% after reporting dramatic slump in deposits | Banking | The Guardian Putin signs decree taking over Russian assets of two foreign firms | Cyprus Mail (cyprus-mail.com) Britons ‘need to accept’ they’re poorer, says Bank of England economist | Bank of England | The Guardian >>> Dear Central Bankers, many thanks for printing money when rates were sub zero, negative yields, great job...you told the world it was fine, it clearly never was !!! Now folks suffer, across the world pretty much (not just UK btw, but more acute in UK clearly, small matter of a weak GBP due to Brexit and much more) The Bank of England needs trade unionists and social scientists to stop groupthink (cityam.com) indeed Get ready for China’s invasion of Taiwan – and the end of Macron’s delusions (telegraph.co.uk) Elon Musk is ‘distracted,’ major shareholder group says | Fortune He is going for growth now (even though he previously said he never would..), thus earnings will suffer , as he has to compete against the rest of the car manufacturing world, including China. His balance-sheet will weaken, share price will struggle, though ok Cathie Woods reckons its going to USD 2K... Lower tax receipts prompt debt ceiling fears | The Hill Commercial real estate loans in core Europe face $55 bln funding gap, report says | Reuters UK venture capital investment tumbles to pre-pandemic levels as market jitters linger (cityam.com) Venture capital is in for a 'world of hurt' | Fortune ....the consequences of ---higher for longer--- will or could very well be felt for years to come Google parent Alphabet announces stock buyback after modest beat on ad sales (cityam.com)

The deficit reduction plan put forward by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy would notably slow economic growth and increase unemployment next yea r, an analysis by Moody’s shows When UBS took over Credit Suisse, it was primarily eyeing its wealth management business. But that unit of prime tenderloin now looks considerably less appetizing, UBS: Significant inflows in wake of Credit Suisse buyout – but profit halved First Republic's deposits plummeted $72 billion in the first quarter, even after Wall Street's largest lenders parked $30 billion with the regional bank to shore up its finances after the collapse of SVB and others London Q1 finance job vacancies plummet 31% year-on-yea r 'as firms struggle with economic and geopolitical headwinds, says Morgan McKinley' ECB's Schnabel spoke on Monday, 50 basis points are not off the table U.K. Retail Sales Look Set to Recover Only Gradually Over the Course of this Year/Thread A selloff in Chinese equities is deepening as traders weigh a barrage of economic and geopolitical risks, with global funds accelerating their exodus The EU and Japan opposed the US proposal to the G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia , writes the Financial Times Markets : VIX on 17months lows >>> BEWARE of vol reawakening for whatever reasons , many shorts and many asleep at the wheel, that's when one should worry and get that hedge on board Commodities ETF (OUT)..flows - see Saxo, Iron Ore lower, Copper too 1y US CDS risk hitting new highs (debt ceiling risk etc), as VIX vols hit new lows - something's not quite right SOFR spreads currently pricing 150bps of cuts to mid 2024 >> point is it's priced in already, hence it helped Equity markets to hold higher ground, but BEWARE if mood changes and we head back to higher for longer on sticky inflation data USDCHF breaking down again it seem s, pressure is on, as long as we remain sub .89-.9000 area on weekly basis, through .8800 area and downside may accelerate (tech picture really not great!), U.S debt ceiling issues not helping (clearly) SPX500 4150-4200 top still, low vols, low volumes not necessarily positive for markets PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) charts If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) podcast Allies resist US plan to ban all G7 exports to Russia | Financial Times (ft.com) BOJ Ueda vows to keep rates low for now, signals chance of future hike (cnbc.com) Weston Nakamura on Twitter: "🇯🇵BOJ WEEK: Day 1 of 5 How WOULD Bank of Japan Destroy Markets & Roil CB Policies? •🇯🇵 sell 🌎 assets & repatriate→💴 •YCC change→ rate vol mayhem (March yield collapse but in reverse) + •PRESS TEST: Sankei News •Ueda in Parliament Watch👇 https://t.co/AUYlMkmQ2j on…" / Twitter ECB Half-Point Hike Next Week Is on the Table, Schnabel Says (yahoo.com) Euro to the fore as hawkish hike looms (cnbc.com) First Republic Bank saw deposits fall by over $100bn as it scrambles to stabilize | US news | The Guardian Republican Debt Ceiling Plan Would Boost Joblessness, Analysis Shows (yahoo.com) Credit Suisse Presents UBS With a Burnt Tenderloin (finews.asia) UBS: Significant inflows in wake of Credit Suisse buyout - but profit halved (cityam.com) The Swiss state as ‘an unwilling banker’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Politics latest news: Rishi Sunak ‘wants EU travel deal after post-Brexit chaos’ (telegraph.co.uk) Pantheon Macro on Twitter: ""U.K. Retail Sales Look Set to Recover Only Gradually Over the Course of this Year" @G_Dickens11 https://t.co/gCp8PfDCiF #PantheonMacro https://t.co/vQ1LK4m4dq" / Twitter 'Crypto is dead in America,' says tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya (cnbc.com) One of the main 'pump and dump' dude from back then, SPAC's and al... Crypto prices tumble as SEC crackdown continues, while EU parliament approves MiCA regulation (cityam.com) The Long, Slow Death of Global Development - American Affairs Journal Sudan: UK government begins large-scale evacuation of British people - BBC News what a mess this all is there - hard to realize the night mare for so many people, lucky those who can escape, but as usual, many innocent will suffer China’s Deepening Selloff Shows Investors Are Losing Confidence - Bloomberg No drama, still way higher then Q3 last year, but...short-term price action weak / Copper

Crude back to lower levels, other commodities softer, slower demand, while inflation remains pretty sticky on higher ground, calls of slowdown, recession on the increase BoJ : big week, as a brand new and untested Ueda holds his 1st policy meeting after a decade of Kurodanomics Stern warning from Citi, as markets buckle up for $600-800B CB liquidity drain in coming weeks “With peak liquidity past, we would not be at all surprised if markets were now to experience a sudden pressure loss. Keep watching the liquidity data — and buckle up.” Chile is nationalizing new lithium production, vowing "no more mining for the few" Credit Suisse clients pulled out CHF61.2 billion ($68.5 billion) of their assets in the first three months of the year as they rushed to leave the collapsing bank ECB's Wunsch says wouldn't be surprised if rates hit 4% at some point Silver Demand set records in every category in 2022 Bank run in slow motion continues . Deposits at US banks fell by $76.2bn last week even before tax payments, indicating the financial system remains fragile after a string of bank failures. The drop was mostly at large and foreign institutions, but they also fell at small banks Germany is now a NET importer of electricity in Europe Markets : XPT would appear to breaking up (chart) Crude breaking down back to where/when OPEC+ cut output, Iron Ore, steel and few others softer too, Gold struggling too above $2k, slower demand/risk recession etc USDollar pretty rangy, same as SPX500, consolidation lately, watch out for short-term levels / change of momentum. Big 10-20 stocks weighting holding up indexes, picture really not that pretty underneath China’s economy rebounds more than expected - Economist Intelligence Unit (eiu.com) Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter: "Stern warning from @Citi as markets buckle up for $600-800B CB liquidity drain in coming weeks “With peak liquidity past, we would not be at all surprised if markets were now to experience a sudden pressure loss. Keep watching the liquidity data — and buckle up.” @business https://t.co/VcdLAVZA2t" / Twitter Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Central bank gold purchases hit the highest since 1967. https://t.co/TVydWk9wHE https://t.co/QdIRCh8wh2" / Twitter Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "While the unemployment rate remains sub 4%, the number of permanent job losses has begun to rise significantly. The latest 2-month increase was as steep as in every recession that has transpired over the last 30 years. The prevalence of layoffs in higher-paying jobs has been… https://t.co/HsxxTCFL7s" / Twitter ''looking under the hood'.. Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany, which will go from being a net exporter of electricity to a net importer of electricity in Europe after the nuclear power plants are shut down. Last week, electricity imports reached their highest level in one day since 2021. https://t.co/XkuzgJ6WUY" / Twitter crazy stuff when you think about it.. !! Credit Suisse reports CHF60bn of client withdrawals - SWI swissinfo.ch SME loans fall by £14bn in last year with more pain on the way (cityam.com) 'Abandoned': UK citizens trapped in Sudan concerned as Government has 'severely limited' ability to help (cityam.com) >>> nightmare - not just for UK citizens Switzerland evacuates Sudan embassy - SWI swissinfo.ch Morgan Stanley's PB Strategic Content team underscores a continuation of past weeks’ trends – relatively muted flows, a slight tilt towards selling Global Equities, gross leverage that stayed constant at 185%, and net leverage that ticked 2% lower WoW to 45% for US Equity L/S funds. Furthermore, crowded longs and shorts performed in-line with one another, resulting in flat L/S alpha. (MS) (3) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Bank run in slow motion continues. Deposits at US banks fell by $76.2bn last week even before tax payments, indicating the financial system remains fragile after a string of bank failures. The drop was mostly at large and foreign institutions, but they also fell at small banks. https://t.co/wrKTw2CjJ1" / Twitter and US Bank Deposits Resume Outflows, Led By Large Institutions; Small Bank Loan Growth Slumped | ZeroHedge Chile is nationalizing all new lithium production (qz.com) What happened to Beyond Meat? - The Hustle Just another silly idea that sounded great and isn't for many diff reasons Silver Demand Set Records in Every Category in 2022 | SchiffGold EU parliament gives blessing to landmark crypto assets regulation (thearmchairtrader.com) More than $15 million in gold and other valuables was stolen from a Toronto airport | WFSU News Civil service could see ‘politicisation’ in wake of Raab row (cityam.com) Platinum prices - maybe false break up since all other commods softer

20th April 2020... when Crude traded at -40$ Saxo podcast below : Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications US April Philly Fed -31.3 vs -19.2 expected, Jobless claims climb to 245,000 and signal rising layoffs >>> a few weeks near or above 250K will be a concern Japan core consumer inflation hits 41-year high of 3% in FY 2022 >>> makes the BoJ decision next week a little trickier ( March core CPI 3.1% YoY ) Michael Schumacher: 7x F1 champion's family plan legal action after AI-generated 'interview' - already going too far... Tesla has gone from assuring investors it wouldn’t need to choose between growth and profitability , to acknowledging the need to sacrifice one for the other : growth over margin JPMorgan expects U.S. debt ceiling to become an issue as early as May , sees a "non-trivial risk" of a technical default on U.S. Treasuries Tesla and Twitter chief executive Elon Musk, who has been calling for US government spending reductions, said on Wednesday that a debt default was just a question of time Stoltenberg says all NATO countries think Ukraine will be come a NATO countr y G7 nations considering near-total ban on exports to Russia -Kyodo ' 'If you believe that we should cut emissions further and faster, you have to honest with people, and tell them about that cost . You cannot pretend that we live in a world without trade-offs, where you can slash carbon emissions without anyone noticing.'' French poll finds far-right Le Pen more popular than Macron Branson's Virgin Orbit files Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan Meanwhile, Argentina’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 81% , a person familiar with the decision said, after annual inflation reached in March a faster-than-expected 104% Chile plans to nationalize its vast lithium industry Top EU diplomats head to the English seaside for secret Brexit away day, sounds exiting! Markets : Iron Ore Dec lows - see below, Crude given up all the OPEC+ output cut 'short-covering rally' , might help keep inflation under control, though lower prices on 'lower demand' The spread between 3-month (5.12%) and 1-month (3.40%) Treasury yields has never been higher: 1.72% >> this will make heads turn for a few weeks, it can't happen really, but a 'technical default' could, it's in the hand of politicians after all SPX500, same picture, 4150-4200 toppish - all very steady, perhaps too steady! NQ, light underperformance and weak ARKK style stocks under pressure (weak balance-sheets, no real earnings etc) USDollar : light profit taking on USD shorts established last few weeks, BoJ next week focus MACRO : to the recession (soft, hard, etc) and inflation debate, you can add ''risk'' of some sort U.S govt shutdown and the G7 coming up on 19.20th Mai (china rethorics etc) Debt ceiling crunch time. Geopolitical tectonics rumbling in the background. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) cup of tea, sit back and listen, about Lagarde speech too - must also focus (Russia, China etc new geopolitical reality etc) Fed's Mester sees policy rate over 5% and 'soft landing' on horizon (msn.com) Perhaps a little less hawkish than many could have expected The giant black cloud hanging over Europe’s economic recovery (msn.com) All seems well at the moment, many arguing this eventual slowdown: The giant spoiler is that the eurozone money supply is in free-fall. The process has been going on long enough to raise the risk of an economic sudden-stop over coming months. European Central Bank data shows that 'narrow' M1 money has been contracting since last September in absolute terms >>> The EZ PMIs this morning clearly suggesting that the domestic economy appears to be completely unfazed by slowing money supply growth, tightening credit standards and so on.. If this stays so, mr market is going to talk 4% from ECB very soon again Oil prices extend losses on fears of recession and slower oil demand (cnbc.com) Japan core consumer inflation hits 41-year high of 3% in FY 2022 (kyodonews.net) Elon Musk says US default is a matter of time (azernews.az) Why Is Bitcoin Down Today? Binance Whale Games And More (newsbtc.com) G7 nations considering near-total ban on exports to Russia -Kyodo - SWI swissinfo.ch Chile's Boric announces plan to nationalize lithium industry (yahoo.com) Top EU diplomats head to the English seaside for secret Brexit away day – POLITICO At least they are talking ! Branson's Virgin Orbit files Chapter 11 bankruptcy plan (yahoo.com) Sorry, but this is another great example of ridiculous mis-allocation of capital (or worse), it was fun while QE machines were working and rates were zero Uncrewed SpaceX rocket explodes after takeoff – DW – 04/21/2023 amazing pics though it has to be said Never mind "climate change deniers" - it's trade-off deniers we should worry about — Institute of Economic Affairs (iea.org.uk) - well worth a read The reason why Switzerland’s economic clout is easily underestimated is that they sell a lot of things that, as end-consumers, we do not directly see, such as high-end capital goods, industrial chemicals, and high-end services that happen behind the scenes. If the world economy were a concert, Switzerland would be supplying the sound system, and organise the logistics around it, but they would not be on the stage singing. Most people may not be able to name a lot of Swiss brands off the top of their heads. But if the Swiss economy shut down tomorrow – we would notice it . BBC Question Time on Twitter: "“A junior doctor now has very significantly less disposable income, in real terms, than they might have had 10 or 15 years ago” Finance journalist Merryn Somerset Webb analyses the economic landscape and possible solutions to the pay dispute #bbcqt https://t.co/Pt7dAKQBFt https://t.co/mnMpuTjeNl" / Twitter Watch European Miners as Iron Ore Price Slips to December Low By Julien Ponthus (Bloomberg) -- European mining stocks may be in focus on Friday with iron ore trading at its lowest since December, as lukewarm demand in top consumer China and ample supplies continued to cap market sentiment. Futures in Singapore plunged as much as 5.5%, its steepest intraday decline in six months, reflecting slow consumption of the key steelmaking material despite China’s usual peak building season being well underway Tesla Chooses Growth Over Margin a Quarter After Promising Both - Bloomberg “Pushing for higher volumes and a larger fleet is the right choice here, versus a lower volume and higher margin” Musk said during Tesla’s earnings call late Wednesday. Michael Schumacher: Seven-time F1 champion's family plan legal action after AI-generated 'interview' - BBC Sport How the billionaire space race could be one giant leap for pollution | Space | The Guardian WATCH: SpaceX’s Starship explodes after failing to reach orbit (nbcnews.com) Young people are too scared to have kids – and climate change hysteria is to blame (msn.com) Russia Bombs Its Own City by Mistake (newsweek.com) Credit Suisse bondholders sue Swiss regulator over bond wipe-out - SWI swissinfo.ch French poll finds far-right Le Pen more popular than Macron | The Edge Markets Cocaine-smuggling submarine reveals Europe's drug crisis - BBC News have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

Google reveals its AI taught itself a skill that it wasn't supposed to have ...are humans too late to regulate AI ?...loosing control of AI already ? Fed's Goolsbee says he is watching for other 'credit shoes' to drop and .. Fed's Williams : Inflation still 'too high,' Fed will act to lower it BOJ officials are wary of tweaking or scrapping yield control stimulus at next week's policy meeting so soon after the banking crisis clouded the outlook, people familiar said. Accessing credit has become harder, Fed’s Beige Book shows. "Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing" Cost of oil, sugar, butter up nearly 20% in Switzerland, sounds familiar? After Morgan Stanley, that's now four quarters in a row of essentially flat investment banking fees for the big five US banks - and at the lowest level since Q1 2019 (incl. BofA, Citi, GS, JPM, MS The era of easy deposits is over for main street banks . Lenders like Citizens Financial and Hancock Whitney are paying more to keep depositors around (U.S centric but applies to parts of EU too..) U.S car repo demand : 'In March, the percentage of subprime auto borrowers who were at least 60 days late on their bills was 5.3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.58% in May 2021 and higher than in 2009, the peak of the financial crisis.' New Zealand CPI adds to evidence of peak inflation, aggressive tightening from RBNZ beginning to impact TSLA : Musk says Tesla will put sales growth ahead of profit (cutting prices) - . Tesla posted gross margins of 19.3%, well below the 22.4% forecast, the lowest level since Q4 2020 >>> Where are the automotive gross margins? Free cash flow -87% miss from consensus estimates? India is now officially the world's most populous nation. The south Asian nation has overtaken China, the UN says. The US is in a distant third spot Russian ships accused of plotting North Sea sabotage with ghost ships Global chart: why financial contagion is unlikely/Economist Intelligence Switzerland’s Federal Council this week said it “acknowledges” Parliament’s vote to reject the CHF109 billion guarantee on the shotgun merger of UBS and Credit Suisse, but it won’t have any effect on the merger Markets: #MOVE index (bond vol) is one thing, #STIRT moving much faster lately, #VIX index is one thing, #0DTE stuff taking over lately >>> markets can and will move faster, particularly with the debt ceiling stuff too in Q2 (irrelevant of what anyone thinks, we've seen in March what can very swiftly happen to 10's of billion of deposit in some banks..), 3 and 4months Tbills - see below, you can add the 1y US CDS into the mix (debt ceiling risk-hedging etc) Rates market has truly been wild, the huge discrepancy is what happens after 1 or 2more Fed hikes, the market is pricing in huge amount of cuts for next 2years USDollar mixed, tried a little higher yesterday, short covering, #XAUUSD tested $1970 and rebounded to 2K again, huge expiries noted for next week in XAUUSD, strikes 2'050 SPX is trapped between the big 4200 resistance and the lower part of the trend channel. Time to move away from this trapped range sooner rather than later Time to buy some downside insurance? Big weather shift coming... | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and charts PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Accessing credit has become harder, Fed's Beige Book shows | CNN Business Global chart: why financial contagion is unlikely - Economist Intelligence Unit (eiu.com) The Era of Easy Deposits Is Over for Main Street Banks - WSJ BTCUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "US govt sold 4mth Treasury bills at highest yield since issue became a benchmark in Oct2022 as some investors avoiding buying securities that are more at risk from a potential technical default. Treasury sold $36bn of 4mth bill at 5.06%, up from 4.98% at prior sale on April 12. https://t.co/wvhunZanju" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Cost of insuring against #USdefault (CDS price) jumps to highest since 2012 as US debt-ceiling deadline may be nearing faster than expected. Weak tax collections so far in Apr suggest increased probability that debt limit deadline will be reached in first half of Jun, GS says. https://t.co/I6tIdhx7KI" / Twitter Grim forecast for public pension funds in California and elsewhere | EdSource this is huge if/when it goes forward, also when you consider the Allianz/N26 news yesterday.. Google reveals its AI taught itself a skill that it wasn't supposed to have (tweaktown.com) Cost of oil, sugar, butter up nearly 20% in Switzerland (theswisstimes.ch) Offshore cash and huge loans: leak reveals how Roman Abramovich funded Chelsea’s success | Roman Abramovich | The Guardian Credit Suisse accused of limiting scope of probe into Nazi-linked accounts (cityam.com) Never ending stream of bad news Insider-Gerüchte bei Swiss Re rund um Ermotti-Comeback - Inside Paradeplatz allegedly, Ermotti knew about comeback as as early as Jan 2023... conspiracy theories flying around Singapore bondholders prepare to sue Switzerland over Credit Suisse Swiss government rejects Parliament vote on UBS-CS merger (theswisstimes.ch) >>> many will argue this is no true democracy..... Fox News Settles Defamation Suit for $787.5 Million, Dominion Says - The New York Times (nytimes.com) >>>So Murdoch blinked...and bought silence for a cool $787mio How Fox and Murdoch are destroying US democracy (prospectmagazine.co.uk) Macron tries to escape French pension row with street song - BBC News Inflation, High Car Prices Hurt US Consumers and Boost Repo Demand - Bloomberg Interest rates: New Zealand CPI adds to evidence of peak inflation (afr.com) Tesla accounts reveal tough start to the year as boss Elon Musk announces more US price cuts – Car Dealer Magazine Russian ships accused of plotting North Sea sabotage with ghost ships (cityam.com) have a great day Team PVM

UK inflation 10.1% >> still more than sticky!, even though BoE and UK government been promising inflation will head lower...This is from the UK Office of Statistics: "The largest contributor to the rise in food inflation was bread and cereals , for which average prices rose by 19.4% in the year to March 2023 U.S 1m T-bill yields vs 3m T-bill yields have never been this inverted >>> avoid Jun expiries!!..common sense IMHO (risk management..).. >>> concerns about the debt ceiling debacle coming sooner rather than later as well as growing collateral shortages U.S tax collections for the year are running basically on top of the previous year, despite the 7.3% surge in nominal GDP >>> disappointing tax harvest for Treasury thus far (could change)/Thread - GS - A US debt ceiling crisis might be closer than you think. Weak tax receipts means drop-dead date is rapidly approaching Bank collapses in early March prompted traders to go from pricing in fed funds rate of 5.35% to 4.75% for next month’s Fed meeting … since, those estimates have climbed back up to 5.05% Feds Bullard: Sees restrictive policy rate between 5.5% and 5.75 range Lagarde : Europe’s Top Central Banker Paints Bleak Picture of West in Decline (inflationary) India to have 2.9 million more people than China by mid-2023, UN estimate shows ‘Gruyère’ becomes a generic name in United States Allianz puts N26 stake up for sale at $3 bln discounted valuation - FT Markets : The #Moveindex just going to catch down to the VIX (not the other way around, as many were talking about-expecting not long ago..), hence the big short equity vs bonds many seem to be trapped in right now Copper stockpiles hit lowest in 18 years - Thread-chart SPX500 4150-4200 resistance still - saxo charts below and podcast below - Banks have been rapidly tightening credit card standards of late too USDollar strength picking up a little on higher yields, higher rates expectations again, watch out if US>D goes decently bid, NQ should correct lower too. JPY weaker still on higher yields globally GOLD, Silver, giving way, profit taking, on higher yields/inflation expectations It’s been a narrow US equity market rally. Tesla is on tap. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) Christine Lagarde Sees the West in Decline Amid Ukraine War (nymag.com) G Stockus on Twitter: "US 3 m bills 5.19% up 9bp US 1m bills 3.77% down 26bp everything ok? https://t.co/wpPirMNleU" / Twitter Craig Shapiro on Twitter: "1m T-bill yields vs 3m T-bill yields have never been this inverted. Clearly there is something going on here with concerns about the debt ceiling debacle coming sooner rather than later as well as growing collateral shortages. Something aint right https://t.co/IY2MPIRW60" / Twitter Stephen Miran on Twitter: "Thanks to @IraFJersey for the chart. Here you can see tax collections for the year are running basically on top of the previous year, despite the 7.3% surge in nominal GDP. This is a disappointing tax harvest for Treasury thus far (could change) https://t.co/EyPKruWe8F" / Twitter Special Edition: Generative AI Part 2 with Emil Sarauw | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) this is a fantastic AI podcast A US debt ceiling crisis might be closer than you think | Financial Times (ft.com) GS - While the data are still very preliminary, weak tax collections so far in April suggest an increased probability that the debt limit deadline will be reached in the first half of June. We have been projecting that Treasury could operate without a debt limit increase until early August Monopolies hire too many pointless managers and kill off productivity growth (cityam.com) Margot Rubin on Twitter: "Copper stockpiles hit lowest in 18 years No wonder the price has held steady amid all the global uncertainty https://t.co/5TFlIFfI7i" / Twitter Allianz puts N26 stake up for sale at $3 bln discounted valuation - FT | Reuters India to have 2.9 million more people than China by mid-2023, UN estimate shows | Reuters The Davis Downside Dossier (yorkshirebylines.co.uk) Shocking Brexit lies - nothing new mind.. Will the Swiss countryside soon be dotted with wind turbines? - SWI swissinfo.ch No no no.. All going downhill !! ‘Gruyère’ becomes a generic name in United States - SWI swissinfo.ch Explainer: Is there an electric car price war? (cityam.com) would be welcome for inflation !

China, solid numbers , after being outpaced by IP during the first two months of 2023 (2.4% versus 3.5%), retail sales in China performed much better in March, rising 10.6% versus a 3.9% rise in industrial production, clearly the expected bounce in China is coming, 4.5% GDP in Q1 is higher than expectations of 4% >>> JPM upgrades 2023 GDP to 6.4% (from 6%) U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy pledged Monday that the narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives will vote to raise the country’s debt ceiling to avert a default on the government’s financial obligations in the coming months, but will also stipulate that future spending increases be capped at 1%. In last few years copper has spent more time above $4 than ever before , not enough investment in new supply facing huge electrification demand More than $440bn has poured into US money market funds since early March , according to data provider EPFR, in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, and as attractive returns drove investors out of ordinary deposit accounts GS-GOLD : Central Bank demand as a % of gold annual supply:2010s: ~10% and 2022-2023: ~30%, goes long way to explain good performance of XAU in the face of higher rates "We view the recent rally as irrational and believe it was mainly driven by systematic inflows and short covering, but these drivers are likely running out of steam" --JPM Crisis in the German housing sector is deepenin g. The number of building permits for dwellings fell by an astonishing 20.6% in February. This was the 10th consecutive decline due to higher interest rates & construction costs/Thread Christine Lagarde says US-China rift to push inflation higher UBS on Tuesday said it was making changes to its $6 billion share buyback programme following its takeover of Credit Suisse >>> While filed lawsuits by bondholders over Credit Suisse’s emergency takeover are becoming increasingly menacing for Switzerland, the damage to investor confidence could be irreversible and Qatar reportedly trying to sell Swiss hotels after Credit Suisse debacle and to top it off, Swiss food staples up to 20% more expensive from last year Calstrs CIO to FT : "Office real estate is probably down about 20 per cent in value, just based on the rise of interest rates" Bögg : sorry folks looks like it's going to be a very wet summer - bit of an old swiss ritual but here you go ! UK wage growth at5.9% in Feb, higher than expected, but real wage growth was still negative, with inflation still far too high Markets : Copper - higher for longer - long term chart below just for big picture view SPX500 holds in there very well, VOLS/VIX super low, supporting price action short-term , if you are looking for a 3-6months 'edge' - it's cheap ! USDollar not doing too much, but didn't exactly roar higher on higher UST yields last few days, higher yields=higher crossjpy's UST yields picked up quite a bit actually last few days again , 2y UST yields 4.20% again! and 10y 3.60% BofA FundManagerSurvey : Long big tech / short US banks : most crowded trade House Speaker McCarthy: Republicans Will Raise US Debt Ceiling (voanews.com) Special Edition: Generative AI Part 2 with Emil Sarauw | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Money Market Funds Caught Up In US Debt Ceiling Stand-off - WorldNewsEra Christine Lagarde says US-China rift to push inflation higher | Financial Times Baron Investments on Twitter: "#Copper. Tightest Supply in 18 Years. What’s your copper picks? https://t.co/dryHje0YR1" / Twitter Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Investor allocation to equities relative to bonds has dropped to its lowest level since 2009: BofA's global fund manager survey. If “consensus lust for recession” isn’t satisfied in Q2, the “pain trade” would be a rally in bond yields and bank stocks: BofA's Hartnett https://t.co/PKwAZ0sNnd" / Twitter UK workers still being gripped by inflation despite better than forecast pay growth (msn.com) As supermarkets rake in profits, Goldilocks would go hungry on the cost of oats (cityam.com) UK cyber security chief to warn of China’s rise as a technology superpower | Defence policy | The Guardian G Stockus on Twitter: "In last few yrs copper has spent more time above $4 than ever before pretty profitable price Not enough investment in new supply facing huge electrification demand means copper shortages but... recession looms Tough trade to time? Glencore-Teck shows industry isn't waiting https://t.co/QRfBOhTQxe" / Twitter Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Good Morning from #Germany, where the crisis in the German housing sector is deepening. The number of building permits for dwellings fell by an astonishing 20.6% in February. This was the 10th consecutive decline due to higher interest rates & construction costs. https://t.co/FqpsxZPGAS" / Twitter China GDP: economy grew by 4.5 per cent in first quarter amid recovery drive, but obstacles remain | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) China's economy gathers speed, global risks raise challenges to outlook | Reuters UBS makes changes to buyback programme following Credit Suisse takeover (msn.com) AT1 Lawsuits Put Switzerland in Dire Straits (finews.asia) Qatar reportedly trying to sell Swiss hotels after Credit Suisse debacle - SWI swissinfo.ch Swiss food staples up to 20% more expensive from last year - SWI swissinfo.ch Apple savings account announced with 4.15% interest (cnbc.com) It's not a bank though (yet anyway..) Pension fund Calstrs braces for writedowns in $50bn property portfolio | Financial Times (ft.com) Warning from $306bn fund is latest sign that higher interest rates have upended US commercial real estate market, market been anticipating this and pricing it - to a large extent already, but pretty nasty situation Sudan: US embassy convoy fired upon amid fighting in African country | World News | Sky News NewInZurich on Twitter: "Check out this video by #alexnikolsky of the burning of the #Böögg in a record breaking (super long) 57 minutes!!! Let’s hope the summer isn’t that bad!! ☔️☔️☔️ Se me here: https://t.co/DYpBOBEFIo #switzerland @1000Switzerland #visitzurich #sechseläuten https://t.co/vFVCERpBzS" / Twitter Copper : a tendency for price to spend time at higher levels - long-term #glencore etc