G7 is really something of the past in GDP terms vs RoW (Thread-chart) Quel drama : US Debt Ceiling: Debt ceiling talks are back on. Biden and McCarthy agreed to resume negotiations over avoiding a default a day after both sides broke off contact amid partisan finger-pointing. The House speaker said he had a "productive" call with the president, who's returning from G7, and that they'd meet in person today China bans major chip maker Micron from key infrastructure projects >> at G7 : Biden Says US-China Relations Set to Improve ‘Very Shortly’ . US president says ‘silly balloon’ derailed ties with China FT - Higher rates combined with rising pensions and healthcare costs are set to weigh on states’ finances Powell said Friday interest rates may not need to rise as high as previously expected with the bank crisis tightening credit conditions, even with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target ‘In a lot of the world, the clock has hit midnight’: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya German economy shows resilience but lacks momentum - DIHK survey (DAX all time highs..) WSJ- JPMorgan now has more than 13% of the nation’s deposits and 21% of all credit-card spending...concentration of risk? Missing Recovery Leaves China’s Metals Bears In Charge Markets: BTC : often hear around ''if bitcoin can't really rally on a risk of US default, then..' -SPX500 4150-4200 still the top end of the range, but looking at DAX etc, the bears may well be more 'upset' in the short-term >>> pure game of low vol and liquidities piling into megacaps (mainly) USD showed/showing signs of strength since last week or so, as UST yields picked up again (TGA stories put a bit of pressure on UST prices). USDTRY nearly 20, USDZAR 19.50, even USDJPY had a great week last week overall (and yet USDCHF remains sickly..CHFJPY!) Crude, commods, stead near their recent lows G7 Summit communique released | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News Debt ceiling talks a headline risk nuisance this week. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Fed’s Powell: Rate decisions made on 'meeting by meeting' after aggressive hikes (yahoo.com) jeroen blokland on Twitter: "The G7 really is something of the past. https://t.co/SYCRaVcUQR" / Twitter China bans major chip maker Micron from key infrastructure projects - BBC News and Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "To put things into perspective: US Chipmakers are heavily reliant on #China. Companies like Qualcomm, Broadcom and Intel. deliver billions of chips to the country, which puts the components inside electronic products that are shipped all over the world. (via BBG) https://t.co/3gZ9qNKbLW" / Twitter Cover Story: China’s Effort to Move Mountain of ‘Hidden Debt’ Faces Uphill Climb - Caixin Global China calls in loans to Pakistan, Kenya, dozens more | Fortune Missing Recovery Leaves China’s Metals Bears In Charge - Caixin Global phyron on Twitter: "CDS Volume is Miniscule and Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means... from GS DTCC data show just $11.6bn of gross notional at the end of March 2023, Miniscule in relationship to the markets. However, rather than signifying high odds of default, or indeed expect credit losses,… https://t.co/28EPRF2aki" / Twitter Ageing populations ‘already hitting’ governments’ credit ratings | Financial Times (ft.com) Ageing populations are hitting public finances across the world, with rating agencies warning that recent interest rate rises have increased the impact of higher pensions and healthcare costs Greece's ruling Conservatives win vote but fall short of majority | Reuters Northern Ireland elections: Sinn Fein on course to become largest party in local government as counting continues | Politics News | Sky News Deep freeze sets between Germany and Switzerland - SWI swissinfo.ch Ukraine war live: Russia deploys 16 types of missiles in attack on Dnipro (telegraph.co.uk) Mount Etna eruption grounds flights at Sicily’s Catania airport | Evening Standard Flights resuming this morning though - good Adani Enterprises share price jumps 15% today, hits upper circuit; group stocks m-cap back above Rs 10 lakh cr | The Financial Express remember that Hindenburg story!.. good grief Japan creditors set to challenge Credit Suisse AT1 write down - SWI swissinfo.ch German economy shows resilience but lacks momentum - DIHK survey | Reuters Why food bills aren't shrinking - five things to know - BBC News Braverman asked aides to help her avoid speeding points (thelondoneconomic.com) Where are all those Brexit benefits? (prospectmagazine.co.uk) Don't look too hard, you won't find many have a great start to the week team PVM

HIROSHIMA, Japan - G7 - The United States and the rest of the "Group of Seven" major economies will unveil new sanctions and export controls targeting Russia over its war against Ukraine, a U.S. official said ahead of a G7 summit in Japan Britain is banning Russian diamonds in a new wave of sanctions to pressure Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine as Rishi Sunak warns allies against complacency at the G7 summit in Japan The recession is just around the corner, 'they' all saying, by now it's consensus >>> and yet global yields are ripping higher AND stock markets hitting new highs (worth noting the weak breath though, megacaps vs RTY etc...) Applications for US unemployment benefits fell by most since 2021 following fraud-inflated figures in previous weeks. Initial unemployment claims fell by 22k to 242k . On an unadj basis, claims decreased by most in 2mths, to 215,810, largely due to a drop in Massachusetts FED's Logan said “the data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet,” calling for another rate hike in June China surpasses Japan as world's top auto exporter . Tesla EVs and Russian deliveries drive industry into lead Fed balance sheet keeps shrinking for an 8th week (Thread-chart) German PPI keeps falling - a good for CPI! ... PPI dropped to 4.1% in April from 6.7% in March, so PPI now 3.1% below CPI... BoJ's Governor Ueda : My view is that the BoJ's QE adopted in 2001 has had limited effect in stimulating the economy - will you change YCC policy though ? Markets : DAX all time highs pretty much, 40% off that early October 2022 lows , during same period QQQ is up 35% (hourly charts bit overdone..), Nikkei highest levels since August 1990, AND of course AI stocks had a stonking year with the Russell flat for the year. SPX500 looks to be going through that 4150/4200 resistance zone too, looks like everyone is back to buy-the-dip mood then! USADollar stays strong(er), with CROSSJPY's motoring higher with higher global yields Crude and few commods showing signs of life, metals got chopped for the same reasons In pictures: G-7 opens with protests, remembrance, plenty of police - Nikkei Asia U.S. Treasury yields: investors weigh Fed interest rate outlook (cnbc.com) First Thing: Zelenskiy to attend G7 in person as leaders prepare new Russian sanctions | US news | The Guardian Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter: "Ahead of tomorrow's remarks by #FederalReserve #Powell: Statements by several speakers so far this week have increased market expectations of another rate hike in June (see below) while also exposing the wide range of individual views--from the last hike was unnecessary to… https://t.co/EZu35qlHzZ" / Twitter Watch Elon Musk's full interview with CNBC's David Faber on Twitter, Tesla and A.I. advances It's long, but if you have time, it's pretty entertaining! The Nasdaq is on the verge of exhaustion, says famed technical strategist Tom DeMark - MarketWatch Jeremy Hunt offers Jaguar Land Rover £500m to keep factory in UK (thetimes.co.uk) Brexit such a success, Hunt has to bride JLR with 500mio £ to stick around UK on path away from recession as hiring and growth ramp up (cityam.com) Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Fed balance sheet keeps shrinking for an 8th week. Total assets drop by $46.3bn to $8.457tn. Balances of the bank lending facilities shuffled around a little bit, as discount window & BTFP borrowing rose $3.7bn while credit extended to FDIC fell $4bn. Treasury holdings fell… https://t.co/Mh3zSwf0wo" / Twitter Russia blood diamonds are latest Kremlin sanction from UK (cityam.com) Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Perhaps the idea of a full-blown regional bank crisis is off the table for now, but signs stress remain. Among them: banks keep tapping the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program for more loans. https://t.co/mkCbze1Wfg https://t.co/3nCWJsXK3c" / Twitter Ukraine war live: Russia unlikely to take Bakhmut soon, Wagner chief admits (telegraph.co.uk) Rishi Sunak and his wife 'lost £500k a day' last year - as Sunday Times Rich List reveals UK's wealthiest people | Business News | Sky News The media loving it, why do ''they'' love people losing money? shadenfreude! Scars and stripes: the horror of US poverty (prospectmagazine.co.uk)

McCarthy and Biden would appear ''to agree to come close together because there is no alternative'' Debt ceiling deal is coming is the new "China trade deal is coming." ...it was a sell the news event and this will be (very most likely) the same after this debt ceiling episode.. >>> the reality will be, that the US govt has to restock its checking account at higher interest rates (pressure deficit, lower tax receipts most likely on slower economy in H2 2023) >>> this will drain liquidity and remove this stock tailwind we've had last 2months The Greens in Germany are currently experiencing a decline in voter favor b/c they are being blamed for the chaos in energy policy. They would currently just get 15% of the vote and have thus fallen behind the radical right-wing AfD Goldman Sachs says A.I. could push S&P 500 profits up by 30% in the next decad e >>> first the benefits, which are quite clear, efficiency etc...then the cost, which the world will have to figure out, AI stuff is nuts, great, worrying, unchecked, wonderful... all at the same time. so much about it these days - see Threads below ECB balance sheet has risen again last week as more bonds were bought than matured. Total assets rose by €11.6bn, most since Jan. ECB Balance sheet now at €7,728.6bn, equal to 59% of Eurozone's GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 113% and BoJ's 130% ECB’s De Guindos: Inflation in services is most worrying for ECB Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said in a Wednesday speech that U.K. inflation was being fueled by “second-round effects” that would prove sticky UBS multi billion 'windfall' in CS takeover Markets : TGA run down (liquidity add), now will need to restock at more expensive levels (liquidity drain) is all that matters over summer/going into Q3 USDollar stay firm(er) as yields pick up again. USD yields firmer, anticipating TGA restock. USDZAR all time highs 19.50 or so, USDCNH 7.05, do watch out, a resurgence of the USD will not be welcome by markets (eventually) Equity markets pushing higher, not anticipating TGA restock - yet ? DAX not too far from all time highs! SPX500 4150-4200 top end of range, but pain trade remains higher in short-term with NQ leading still (megacaps mainly, breath not great etc) >>> would use this short-covering rally and TP on some, look for a lower low if you want to turn bearish (on TGA restocking overtime etc) Craig Shapiro on Twitter: "After a modest pickup in cash at TGA yesterday (reported today), expect the TGA to fall to a new low sub $70bn when reported at the close tomorrow as Treasury continues to deplete its cash hoard while paying more out in interest expenses and receiving less in tax receipts. While…" / Twitter well worth a read, we often talked about it with you on the phone over the last couple of months., this has been a major liquidity add during this debt ceiling negotiations (thus helped supported Eq markets, NQ mainly and megacaps)... this will change/reverse during Q3.. Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter: "From @Axios. The persistent gap between what the #FederalReserve has repeatedly signaled on policy rates and what the markets keep on pricing in is unusual given that the Fed sets the policy rates. It is also unsettling as its resolution will involve either a bout of market… https://t.co/XSoJ4wSpPA" / Twitter Bank of England governor says the UK is facing a wage-price spiral (cnbc.com) Is the world falling for this again ? : -Altman, CEO of OpenAI calls for US to regulate artificial intelligence (BBC) May '23 -Zuckerberg, We need a more active role for governments and regulators Oct. '20 -Facebook COO Sandberg calls for government regulation (CNN) June '19 Sting: Music will face ‘battle’ with AI in coming years | Evening Standard Rowan Cheung on Twitter: "Insane announcements in the world of AI today from Zapier, Zoom, Elon Musk, and OpenAI. Plus, 15 fresh AI tools & resources. Here's the rundown on everything you need to know:" / Twitter The Rundown AI on Twitter: "You can hack ChatGPT to act as your job trainer, dating coach, tutor, lawyer, therapist, or writer. Steal these 6 new prompts to get massively ahead:" / Twitter Aakash Gupta 🚀 Product Growth Guy on Twitter: "AI just won't stop 🤯 In the last 4 days: JIZAI Robots Med-PaLM 2 Google x Adobe Tesla Optimus AI New ChatGPT UI Unreal Engine 5.2 Amazon Burnham Amazon AI Search Sam Altman in DC Apple Voice Cloning Alzheimer's Detection OpenAI: Open-Source LLM Here's what you need to know:" / Twitter Goldman Sachs: AI-driven gains could lead to 30% S&P 500 profit spike (cnbc.com) Alpine solar farms set for public vote in canton Valais - SWI swissinfo.ch Charles Schwab to raise $2.5 billion in long-term debt - WSJ By Reuters (investing.com) If any problem, issue more debt.. UBS Sees Multi-Billion Windfall From Credit Suisse Takeover (finews.asia) Worth a look ! #UBSG Dr S Jaishankar Takes George Soros to the Cleaners for his Remarks against India's Government - YouTube Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss warns of China threats during Taiwan visit - ABC News (go.com) irrespective of what anyone thinks of China (India above), what on earth was she doing there!?.. many countries would be a whole lot better for looking after their own matters.. without stirring rubbish elsewhere in the world 55 Years Later, Man Who Escaped Alcatraz Sends This Note (dailybee.com) Great story Deluded Tories are blind to the scale of the disaster to come (telegraph.co.uk) have wonderful day team PVM

'It could go quite wrong': ChatGPT inventor Sam Altman admits A.I. could cause 'significant harm to the world' as he testifies in front of Congress Biden cancels Australia visit as debt ceiling default nears. US Debt Ceiling: Kevin McCarthy said a deal to avoid a US default is possible within days after meeting Joe Biden . Biden trimmed his planned visit to Asia, dropping stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea It took the Fed to hike 10x (500 bps in cumulative increases), the effective FFR (5.08%) is finally above the rate of inflation in the US (4.99%) >>> something that hasn't happened since 2010, we've had ultra-easy monetary policy persisting pretty much at all times During a hearing on bank failures by the US Senate Banking Committee, Louisiana Senator John Kennedy grilled former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker on his investment choices while in charge (thread below - always someone else's fault..) Russia exporting more oil than ever, almost all to China and India "The tower at 350 California in San Francisco, valued at $300 million in 2019, is expected to trade at about $60 million'' U.S Auto loan and credit card interest rates just hit a record high Elon Musk hits out at ‘la la land’ home working – and reveals his own punishing schedule Europe's Inflation breadth is improving. The share of goods and services in the euro area HICP whose prices are rising has dropped back in line with historical average Markets : After yesterday's move, YTD returns for the Dow (as well as that for the Russell) shows the significant performance dispersion in US markets.. and it’s not only the contrast between the NQ's near 20% performance, the differences are even (much) bigger if/when you look at single stocks USDollar slightly stronger, '''EURUSD run out of steam above 1.10+''' couple of weeks back, as U.S rates start to pick up a little relative to RoW again. Weak chinese macro data also pushing USDCNH back to 7+ SPX500 seems to be running out of steam 4150-4200 area, but none of this matters for the techs and systematic funds until say 4040 breaks down and sort of confirms a 'top' up there, need to make lower lows etc.. U.S : Average interest rates: - Credit Card: 25% - Used Cars: 13% - New Cars: 10% ...as total houseghold debt hit $17trn, ajuto loans about $1.5trn, credit card debt anothere $1trn What shocks this market out of the 0DTE volatility dampener? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Getting inflation back to the 2% target − speech by Andrew Bailey | Bank of England OpenAI's Sam Altman testifies before Congress—Here are the key moments (cnbc.com) Personally and FIWI.. I'm sure it has some great advantages, and some of it is fun..but we should establish what the downside risks area.. and we should regulate it somewhat, it's another example of a new technology that pops up and has no regulation (yet), after crypto and many other things, we have seen what happens when its not somewhat regulated...) Reuters Business on Twitter: "WATCH: During a hearing on bank failures by the US Senate Banking Committee, Louisiana Senator John Kennedy grilled former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker on his investment choices while in charge https://t.co/Vx8jNYEybf https://t.co/1rmqcoFMfY" / Twitter LBC on Twitter: "'Rishi Sunak has presented this as his great Brexit benefit...hugely valuable assets have been given away for an extremely small sum.' Investigative journalist @rbrooks45 explains the Teesside Freeport scandal to @mrjamesob. https://t.co/KQFF6ZGmp3" / Twitter Another scum for his/their mates Rise in Distressed Sales Signals New Chapter for Beleaguered Office Market - WSJ FX Talking: The rocky path to a weaker dollar | Bundle | ING Think Tighter US credit conditions caused by the banking crisis will make a recession and a deeper Fed easing cycle all the more likely. These events strengthen the case for a weaker dollar. We are raising our year-end EUR/USD forecast to 1.20. The path to a weaker dollar will be a rocky one, however. Any breakdown in US money markets could send the dollar stronger Sanders goes big in new health package - POLITICO 'Very strong' Nepali sherpa sets Everest record with 27th ascent | Reuters Whaoo! Elon Musk hits out at 'la la land' home working - and reveals his own punishing schedule (telegraph.co.uk)

China’s economic data misses expectations as economy continues to show uneven recovery US Debt Ceiling: McCarthy was downbeat about debt ceiling talks, today he and Joe Biden reconvene on the issue. "We are nowhere near reaching a conclusion," the speaker said, calling staff-level meetings "not productive at all." A key topic of dispute is adding work requirements for anti-poverty benefits. Janet Yellen reiterated her warning that the government could run out of cash by June 1st U.S. Department of Education Announces $42 Billion in approved Public Service Loan forgiveness for more than 615,000 borrowers since October 202, stealth stimulus! European natural gas prices dropped another 2% to €32/MWh, lowest level since Summer 2021 >>> U.S. Inflation Surprise Index from Citi has fallen to lowest since July 2020 Paul Tudor Jones says his view has changed in the past six months because of generative AI ; says it will be a productivity miracle. Sees stocks heading higher this year, as he believes the Fed has finished raising rates in this cycle Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says that he doesn’t foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, while... Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Collapsed In Apr il - Biggest Drop Ever (Ex-COVID), and U.S Credit Card Debt soars 20% in one year, up to $1trn Platinum Market "Entering Substantial Deficit This Year" RBA minutes 'decision to hike was finely balanced' Turkish default protection costs soar as Erdoğan leads presidential vote . Cost of credit default swaps records biggest rise in two years, while bonds sell off..>> post-vote selloff continues. Bank Stocks dropped >8%, most in 9 months, whileTRY on course to fresh All-Time lows Amazon is working on a secret AI home robot that can understand things and monitor whether kids had friends over after school >>> will you get one ? Nikkei hits 33-year high as investors warm to Tokyo story. Interest spurred by corporate governance reforms and search for alternative to China UK employment data : Nearly 10% of the workforce long term sick! (Thread), of in case you missed it Farage, the architect of Brexit, was on BBC news night last night saying 'Brexit has failed' (worth noting he always stayed well away from implementing it...naturally..) Markets : Large Techs systematic demand keeping broad markets pretty rangy , China macro data weaker, U.S debt ceiling talks intensifying into early June, while EU commission rising inflation forecasts and UK data is a reminder that inflation IS sticky >>> plenty of Fed speakers and U.S sales later on SPX500 we stick to 3800/4200 range for now , if if we broke higher, it won't be the time to chase SPX at 4300 (valuations etc)...NQ-megacaps 'leading' at the moment, 80pct of stocks struggling, regional banks weakness unlikely to be over as rates stay 'elevated USDollar caught a little bid this week, not exactly gone too far, but worth monitoring , no need to be too concerned unless EURUSD breaks through 1.1050+ again in short.term, but the likes of MXN has not seing these levels since 2016 (17.50...), Cable has its own problems (inflation, stagflation), AUD (china not reopening all that well) etc, be selective.. Commods another nudge lower on weaker Chinese data. IEA warns latest oil price drop is running against backdrop of a supply crunch in 2H 2023 Morgan Stanley reports that clients broadly expect a range trade at the index level but with low conviction levels (3800/4200 range). Mike Wilson notes that there is little appetite to dive back into areas that have underperformed like small caps, regional banks, and lower quality cyclicals … large cap tech remains well owned + little demand for traditional defensives. (Morgan Stanley) >>> mainly driven by 'systematic' funds playing in the large caps (where the liquidities are..) Japan stock index hits 33-year high as investors warm to Tokyo story | Financial Times (ft.com) Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill regrets urging people to accept they are poorer | Business News | Sky News Trading an inverted yield curve why and how | Saxo Group (home.saxo) Summary: Inflation, monetary policy, and a recession. Nobody is entirely sure of what's going to happen. Thus, it is critical to gain perspective and commit to a view. Here we discuss the inverted yield curve and how it can be traded depending on what you believe will happen in the foreseeable future China data misses expectations as economy shows uneven recovery (cnbc.com) South Africa’s dangerous game of Russian roulette - ISS Africa Amazon announces updates to the Astro home robot | Amazon news (aboutamazon.com) have you ordered yours ? 2 May 2023 | Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board | RBA Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed is done raising rates, stocks to finish the year higher from here (cnbc.com) " Manufacturing activity declined significantly in New York State, according to the May survey. After jumping into positive territory last month, the general business conditions index plunged forty-three points to -31.8 . Seventeen percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while forty-nine percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index sank fifty-three points to -28.0, and the shipments index dropped forty points to -16.4, indicating that both orders and shipments declined after increasing in April ." — New York Federal Reserve Bank >>> markets don't care, maybe economic data doesn't matter anymore...! World Platinum Investment Council - Supply & Demand - Platinum Quarterly U.S. Department of Education Announces $42 Billion in Approved Public Service Loan Forgiveness for More Than 615,000 Borrowers Since October 2021 | U.S. Department of Education Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand (cnbc.com) Starmer defends plans to give EU citizens and 16-year-olds the vote despite election 'rigging' claims (cityam.com) Storm Uncovers 1,800-year-old Shipwreck Carrying Rare Precious Cargo (newsweek.com) Singapore Increases Property Tax Rate (finews.asia) Turkish default protection costs soar as Erdoğan leads presidential vote | Financial Times (ft.com) ‘Brexit has failed’ GB News presenter Nigel Farage admits after he is read a list of negative facts about the UK economy BBC iPlayer - Newsnight >>> populist ideas, sounded great, got some votes, some some TV coverage, and of course Farag stayed WELL away from any implementation as he knew it was a minefield.. Brexit has failed, says Nigel Farage | Evening Standard UK unemployment rate rises to 3.9% as company payrolls shrink – business live (msn.com) Tom Newton Dunn on Twitter: "Sick Britain. New ONS figures reveal 2.55 million people are now out of work due to long-term sickness, the highest number since records began. Close a tenth of the total workforce. And it’s still rising - an extra 438,000 in just the last three months. Covid’s very long tail. https://t.co/pRbZ8OLuFV" / Twitter have a great day team PVM

Global copper producers meet in Chile this week , with talks expected to focus on M&A, surging demand, and tight supply for the metal behind the green transition Fed can 'hit the mark and hold' with one more rate hike, Bostic says >>> earnings season in full swing this week, PMI data later on in the week and the usual Central Bankers interviews around the world.. After the March 2023 banking crisis... JPM reported huge earnings, stock back up to pre *crisis levels.. (sure enough problems can re-emerge, but in reality a few very badly run banks went down, and no depositors lost money..as it should be really..), Consumer sentiment steady in mid-April but inflation expectations jump, University of Michigan says BlackRock's Larry Fink says there's no big recession headed for the US economy, but inflation will be 'stickier for longer' EURO Stoxx 50 index set for highest close since December 2007! "Our base case remains that a recession will start in 3Q 2023." - BofA (first Fed tightens hard, then we get an inverted yield curve, unemployment rate starts to rise (TBC) and eventually if true, then comes some kind of recession. Industrial production on YoY basis is negative / Thread BoC : Financial system has to adjust to higher interest rates , Macklem says Brexit was supposed to be good for trade. It simply isn't Apple announced a major acceleration of its work to expand recycled materials across its products , including a new 2025 target to use 100 percent recycled cobalt1 in all Apple-designed batteries Morgan Stanley’s Wilson sees Stock Rally at risk of Yields rise Bank of England considers major reform of deposit guarantee scheme African Nations could embrace BRICS currency instead of the USDollar Economist, Larry Summers warns US is getting ‘Lonely’ as other powers band together. Former Treasury chief speaks on sidelines of IMF meetings. Summers: some voices see US representing less-favorable bloc >>>> This is clearly the new risk geopolitically... The Global West needs to see/accept/understand that many in the Global South are pivoting towards the Global East, west needs to wake up before it is too late Energy crisis fuels coal comeback in Germany Markets : SPX500 dipped on higher UMich inflation expectations on Friday , but back to 4150 resistance, the overall big short out there helping keep VIX low and thus delta buying on dips. EUROstoxx50 making near all time highs USD a little higher after UMich inflation data , markets been pretty short USD for a bit, consolidation if UST yields stay firm and risk of higher USD if/when UST yields move higher again GOLD dipping from 2040usd for same reasons as above Exclusive-Fed can 'hit the mark and hold' with one more rate hike, Bostic says (msn.com) Bank of England considers major reform of deposit guarantee scheme | Financial Times (ft.com) BlackRock's Larry Fink says there's no big recession headed for the US economy, but inflation will be 'stickier for longer' (yahoo.com) Financial system has to adjust to higher interest rates, Macklem says | CP24.com Consumer sentiment steady in mid-April but inflation expectations jump, University of Michigan says - Sharecast.com Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Stock Rally at Risk of Yields Rise >>> (clearly the key, rates expectations in late 2023 and 2024, from no cut in 2023 back to 75bps cut in 2023 and a total of 150bps into 2024, that is what fuelled markets lately (mild, hard, no recession etc..and inflation expectations) Share of stocks outperforming S&P 500 is at record low: WilsonWarns tech rally could fizzle out on inflation, rising yieldsBy Sagarika Jaisinghani (Bloomberg) -- The rally in the S&P 500 has been driven by only a handful of stocks, putting the index at risk of fresh lows if bond yields rise, according to Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson — one of the most bearish voices on Wall Street. The percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 on a three-month rolling basis is the lowest on record, Wilson said. That “is the market’s way of warning us we are far from out of the woods with this bear market,” the strategist — who was ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey for correctly predicting the stock slump — wrote in a note.   The biggest risk could come from a slump in the technology sector if inflation proves sticky and bond yields rise, Wilson said. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has surged 20% this year, partly as the sudden collapse of some regional US lenders sparked a rotation away from banking stocks and toward growth shares. Investors have also been betting that cooling inflation would prompt the Federal Reserve to stop hiking rates soon, but Wilson warned those expectations were premature. “If there is one thing that can throw cold water on the large mega-cap rally, it’s higher yields due to a Fed that can’t stop hiking as soon as perhaps some investors are expecting,” Wilson wrote. Ed Bradford on Twitter: "Other than NBER guys no one cares about this, but IP YoY closing in on a negative print https://t.co/jubW3hJXRP" / Twitter Michael Pettis on Twitter: "1/9 "'Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar,' Lula said in an impassioned speech at the New Development Bank in Shanghai. 'Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies?'" https://t.co/ax90gEOhsk" / Twitter UK’s goods exports lowest in G7 following Brexit, study finds | Financial Times (ft.com) Antoine Bouvet on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Time for an US bank chart storm. The upshot is that phase 1 'contagion' of the US banking crisis is nearly over but phase 2 'credit crunch' is what we should be focusing on 1/" / Twitter More tick-box regulations won’t save us from a financial crisis (cityam.com) One of the biggest challenges is an over-reliance on prescriptive rules, often with little focus on the underlying risks of specific institutions. Simply requiring banks to hold more capital – without better risk management – won’t generate confidence in the markets. It creates a government backstop as a crutch to protect consumers or specific sectors, while rewarding risk takers and creating moral hazard. G7 countries question Swiss sanctions ‘loopholes’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Wie Zürich und seiner Elite die Macht abhandengekommen ist - Blick Apple will use 100 percent recycled cobalt in batteries by 2025 - Apple Energy crisis fuels coal comeback in Germany | Reuters Why Germany shut down its nuclear plants amid energy concerns (qz.com) Here are all the places taking a second look at nuclear (qz.com) Mark Nelson on Twitter: "NOBEL LAUREATES, CLIMATE SCIENTISTS CALL ON GERMAN CHANCELLOR TO SAVE NUCLEAR PLANTS In an open letter, Nobel Physics winners Klaus von Klitzing and Stephen Chu, plus dozens more scientists and economists, call on Schulz to reverse course. German press *heavily* covering this. https://t.co/wylgZYlv4y" / Twitter EUROstoxxs50 - impressive !

Algorithms prop up the market as fretful humans sit out the uncertainty >>> Quant funds have been piling into US equities in response to falling volatility-FT Week ahead : U.S retail sales, many Fed and other CB speakers (as usual), debt ceiling focus, banking 'crisis' with regionals, Chinese macro data, and the week will end with G7 headlines on friday US Debt Ceiling: Biden said talks to avert a default are moving along.... "real discussion about some changes,". Fed's Brainard called the tone "serious" and "constructive." The Treasury had just $88 billion of leeway left on May 10, down from about $110 billion a week earlier. Biden and Kevin McCarthy plan to meet on again Tuesday, a person familiar said >>> so far Mr Market didn't care about debt ceiling issues (other than 1month TBills and CDS), because ''you know it can't and won't happen'', that's what every one says, pretty much, which is in some ways what makes me a little concerned, as U.S politics never been more polarized than many of us can remember Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu locked in tight race for Turkish presidency. With more than 98 percent of the ballot boxes opened, preliminary unofficial results show President Erdogan’s share of votes at just below 50 percent, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency Very stagflationary print from UMich survey (late Friday). The sentiment numbers came in way below expectations (which is very strange with unemployment so low..), and the inflation expectations numbers came in a bit higher than expectations (3.2% new highs though).. Powell specifically referenced this survey as key to understanding inflation expectations being well-anchored (too many cuts priced in..) Cheaper eggs are on the way Older commercial real estate out of major UK cities is struggling to attract demand -FT SocGen " estimates that without stocks tied to AI, the S&P 500 would be down 2% so far in 2023, not up almost 8%." Following the completion of its legal takeover of Credit Suisse in the coming weeks, UBS will quickly examine its options and find a solution for Credit Suisse in Switzerland by late summer, UBS Vice Chairman Lukas Gaehwiler said in Lugano on Thursday Thailand election latest: Paetongtarn sees 'smooth' Pheu Thai-Move Forward alliance Germany : Prices in wholesale trade fell by 0.5% in April 2023 YoY . The first YoY decrease since Dec 2020 was mainly driven by mineral oil products (-15.7% YoY), scrap & residual materials (-31,5 %), cereals, raw tobacco, seeds & feedstuff (-25.2%)..Peakinflation etc China’s central bank injected more long-term liquidity into the financial system for the sixth month in May Inflation was "transitory," and now their economists call it "persistently high," particularly when stripping out food and energy costs. The European Commission upgraded both inflation and growth forecasts, with no recession in sight Markets : While macro data weakens-has weakened lately, UMich on Friday - latest) , low vols pushed Algo's to pile up into equities lately (with VIX near 17 or below..it is / has been about systematic buying). NOW let's be clear, whether any human likes it or not, this IS a huge part of the market Crude prices continue to point to global recession , even after OPEC+ production cuts, however, Hedge funds/CTAs are now massively net short gasoil futures. AAPL market cap is now greater than the whole RTY (Russel). SPX500 back to/still within recent ranges ''USD snapping back'' could be the big surprise in short-term - as pointed out last week, ''EURUSD 'run out of steam' above 1.10+'' US UMich sentiment survey the worst of both worlds | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) GOLDMAN: “1Q 2023 earnings season proved to be much better than feared. .. Margins in every sector surprised to the upside .. we believe the worst of the 2023 negative earnings revision cycle is now behind us.” Druckenmiller at Sohn: "If we get a hard landing, there will be unbelievable opportunities, and I don't want to miss those opportunities by blowing my money now and having some 20-30% loss where my head is all screwed up when those opportunities present themselves." Euro-Zone Inflation Outlook Raised by EU on Surge in Core Prices - Bloomberg China’s Central Bank Extends Cash Support in May as Credit Growth Slumps - Caixin Global What went right this week? The good news you should know about - Positive News Algorithms prop up the market as fretful humans sit out the uncertainty | Financial Times (ft.com) Turkey election vote tracker: Follow live results | Elections News | Al Jazeera Ukraine war latest: Zelenskyy chopper lands at Chequers - as two Russian commanders confirmed dead and China embarks on 'peace mission' | World News | Sky News California's budget deficit has ballooned to $32 billion | Fortune jeroen blokland on Twitter: "Global #earnings numbers will very likely drop. Why? Here's a classic 'connecting-the-dots' chart to explain. #China's producer price #deflation intensified in April, with the #PPI falling 3.6% from a year ago. Historically, there is a close relationship between global… https://t.co/yCB6Ohn4aT" / Twitter Rickards: "Weird Gold Trick" Could End Debt-Ceiling Showdown | ZeroHedge It’s not a fantasy. It was done twice. It was done in 1934 and it was done again in 1953 by the Eisenhower administration. It could be done again. It doesn’t require legislation Cheaper eggs are on the way (axios.com) Like any other silly 'panic' last 2 years, toilet paper, NatGas and so on, prices of eggs right back down, good! excellent news Profit expectations for riskier sectors are moving down, says Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz (cnbc.com) ‘Stranded assets’: investors reckon with obsolete offices | Financial Times (ft.com) Thailand election latest: Paetongtarn sees 'smooth' Pheu Thai-Move Forward alliance - Nikkei Asia Lukas Gaehwiler: «We Should Have a Solution for Credit Suisse in Summer» (finews.asia) What Defines Artificial Intelligence? The Complete WIRED Guide | WIRED There’s some evidence that AI can make us happier and healthier. But there’s also reason for caution Nick Tyrone on Twitter: "Jacob Rees-Mogg was the minister for Brexit Opportunities for seven months. In that time, he found no genuine opportunities and is now resorting to claiming something as ridiculous as Brexit saved Ukraine. Brexit is an empty vessel. https://t.co/0SI0bOpfh2" / Twitter

Turkey electio n: Can a divided opposition wrest power from Erdogan after 20 years?, If the opposition wins, they will inherit a financial mess Just one week but highest U.S initial claims since late 2021 (264K) - trending higher BoE hiked 25bps , as expected, to 4.5%, and in all probabilities, more to come. The Bank of England Corporate Bond QE programme which reached £20 billion is now nearly over , "The sales programme was expected to conclude in coming weeks". Bailey admits he was wrong on recession – with record upgrade for UK economy China : More Chinese cities offer free accommodations to lure jobseekers, ease their financial burden >>> Chinese youth unemployment 20%, China CPI, PPI way down in recent months, setting trend for RoW ?.. ECB : 'expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became slightly more negative and the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased' >>> so if correct, 3year expectations at 3%, this IS important , we all agree inflation is coming down, but there is a Very decent risk it won't come down to target, thus CB's will pause but won't cut as quick as many think.... and they may actually still HIKE in short-term... this is definitely where the market will swing between soft and hard landing! '' The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor with the budget deficit widening to $1.9 trillion''.. This is occurring when the economy is still in an expansion with the Unemployment Rate at a 54-year low of 3.4%. What happens to the deficit when a recession hits? (Thread below), one of the point of Druckenmiller (he even mentioned ''at least France big spender usually, did the hard (must do) work of moving pensions from 62 to 64.. Until 1953, Swiss women who married foreigners automatically lost their citizenship Regulators should look at a short-selling ban on banks, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says >> why? it didn't work in 2008, it made things worse anyway at the time.... and that's a big moral hazard... Trump urges GOP to let catastrophic debt default happen if Dems don’t accept cuts, sounds like a great plan Donald! good grief China, India, Singapore, Turkey and UAE are all providing Russia a helping hand in evading Western oil sanctions Markets : Big Techs love 'inversion' , signs of breaking up (for many HF and specs, the pain trade..). SPX500 4150-4200, could very well be challenged, if NQ continues and actually leads higher The strong continue getting stronger and the weak are getting weaker. The NASDAQ vs Russell ratio is getting very close to the post Covid mania levels Commods, crude had another 'bad' week, mind you this is good for inflation in a few months! EURO ''loosing steam 1.10+'' , USD caught a little bit of a bid last 48hours, commods initially softer on weak global manufacturing, eventually metals and few USD pairs higher, not by much mind! but worth noting nonetheless. ZAR going in one direction though, down (SA supplied arms to Russia article below not helping) Rates markets beginning to think/price a Fed cut by September, t he likes of UBS see a negative NFP by end of summer!. .. US claims the lead..! (best quality and frequency data) >>> JPMORGAN: “.. today’s jobless claims reading .. hints at potentially more abrupt slowing. If sustained for the month of May, the 3m/3m change will have surged to 17.4% — a jump that would clearly put it in the range only seen in recessions over the past half-century.” The 1-month Treasury bill yield has moved up to 5.81% - debt ceiling worries Druck : from his latest interview, worth every minute ... ''when you have free money, people do stupid things. When you have free money for 11 years, people do really stupid things. So there's stuff under the hood, it's starting to emerge. Obviously the regional banks recently, But I would assume there's a lot more bodies coming'' The Dirty Five Laundering Russia's Oil | MENAFN.COM China, India, Singapore, Turkey and UAE are all providing Russia a helping hand in evading Western oil sanctions Big banks could face billions more in FDIC fees after bank collapses (msn.com) Turkey elections: How will the vote affect foreign policy? | Middle East Eye Charlie Bilello on Twitter: "The US government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor w/ the budget deficit widening to $1.9 trillion. This is occurring when the economy is still in an expansion with the Unemployment Rate at a 54-year low of 3.4%. What happens to the deficit when a recession hits? https://t.co/yQK7HOICa9" / Twitter ''Interest on the debt at $928 billion now exceeds Defense spending in the USA … and it is still climbing rapidly. Interest payments on govt debt will rise to $1.1 trillion next year'' JPM's Jamie Dimon warns of market panic as U.S. nears default (cnbc.com) “We have ~$600B of Office CRE.. maybe some of that will go bad. They are going to be Ok..it may take a few banks down.. that is normal stuff. That is not abnormal.” “What’s abnormal is War, Trade, Future of Democracy. I am much more concerned about that”. J Dimon May 11, 2023 More Chinese cities offer free accommodations to lure jobseekers, ease their financial burden | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) not a pretty picture Pictet Paints Picture of a Slowing China (finews.asia) ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – March 2023 (europa.eu) Electric vehicles have a dirty secret. The race is on to clean it up - Positive News From the other week-end, when you have time, it's worth watching ! Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full afternoon session with Warren Buffett - YouTube brilliant the both of them! Politics UK on Twitter: "🚨 | NEW: The Speaker of the House SHOUTS at Kemi Badenoch for being rude “Who do you think you’re speaking to, SOC? It is time this government recognised that we’re ALL elected and use the correct manners” https://t.co/wPN2ePI2Iv" / Twitter ODA oda oda! "I am the defender of this house and these benches on both sides. I am not going to be spoken to by a secretary of state who is absolutely not accepting my ruling, take it with good grace and accept it." US ambassador says South Africa gave weapons, ammunition to Russia for Ukraine war | News24 The terrible fate of Swiss women who lost their nationality - SWI swissinfo.ch Until 1953, Swiss women who married foreigners automatically lost their citizenship! Trump endorses debt ceiling default (cnbc.com) Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter: "Overall Brazilian equities are now at their most undervalued levels since the impeachment of the president in 2016. Additionally, these stocks are being traded at similarly low multiples as they were during the global financial crisis. Unlike US markets that remain historically… https://t.co/ckLKiLB66c" / Twitter Boris Johnson’s Friends Warned Him Not To Back ‘Intellectually Wrong’ Brexit | HuffPost UK Politics (huffingtonpost.co.uk) have a wonderful weekend Team PVM

U.S CPI 'slightly' softer/largely in line, 'the slowdown in services and shelter inflation is likely to be eye-catching enough for the Fed to stop hiking under most scenarios', 'marginal improvements noticed' (the 'whispers' were for higher, hence markets reacted positively yesterday) German govt has sold 30y debt in auction at 2.53%, most expensive 30y auction since 2013 >> "Is it restrictive? No question about it. Is it sufficiently restrictive? Not yet." Buba's Nagel: "We're getting closer to restrictive, but we're not there." The US claimed a cyber victory against a Russian malware network Alphabet gains $56 billion in market value after it unveils AI 'snapshots' for Google Search US default would make Cyclone Roller Coaster ‘look like a kiddie ride’. Yesterday the SEC’s chair Gary Gensler spoke at ISDA’s annual meeting in Chicago . The main topic was the regulator’s plans to overhaul the Treasury market, but he couldn’t resist having a pop at the debt ceiling idiocy. European commercial real estate : the cracks are starting to show-FT Italy to hold talks with China about exiting Belt and Road Initiative .Prime minister Giorgia. Meloni says ‘debate is open’ on whether to leave Xi Jinping’s foreign investment programme ChatGPT ’s creators have attempted to get the system to explain itself . They found that while they had some success, they ran into some issues – including the fact that artificial intelligence may be using concepts that humans do not have named for, or understanding of Markets : Copper, commods, NatGas another kick lower and NQ loving it, maybe breaking up technically, another pain trade EURUSD 'running out of steam' 1.10+ >>> USD shorts could start to notice and be forced to reduce big USD shorts out there in markets Nasdaq/megacaps loving current rates environment (75bps of Fed cuts priced in for late in the year and much more next year). NQ may even be breaking up technically. SPX500 4150-4200 could be challenge, if NQ continues. DAX/EUstocks50 not doing much lately, after huge rally since Oct 2022 and now not too far off all time highs Mean reversion continues: sterling next? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Frederik Ducrozet on Twitter: "🇺🇸 Here's the sequential breakdown of core CPI by main components. The slowdown in services and shelter inflation is likely to be eye-catching enough for the Fed to stop hiking under most scenarios. https://t.co/tJFCXCuR97" / Twitter we are getting there! Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "Debt is becoming increasingly expensive for Germany. German govt has sold 30y debt in auction at 2.53%, most expensive 30y auction since 2013. https://t.co/mTS1QKSX57" / Twitter - chart ChatGPT creators try to use artificial intelligence to explain itself – and come across major problems | The Independent European commercial real estate: the cracks are starting to show | Financial Times (ft.com) Hydrogen One offering 'a great entry price' (thearmchairtrader.com) The US claimed a cyber victory against a Russian malware network (yahoo.com) Alphabet gains $56 billion in market value after it unveils AI 'snapshots' for Google Search (yahoo.com) Europe Gas Slides As Forecasts Point to Warmer, Windier Weather | Financial Post NHS waiting list hits record 7.3 million people in England | The Independent Good grief! Italy to hold talks with China about exiting Belt and Road Initiative | Financial Times (ft.com) Imran Khan’s arrest brings Pakistan closer to the edge | The Economist Hundreds of troops line US border amid huge surge in migrant crossings before Title 42 ends | Evening Standard Sudanese refugees face hunger and hostility in neighbouring countries (telegraph.co.uk) How this Egypt resort’s diving holidays help clean up the Red Sea | The Independent have a great day Team PVM

- Pressure is growing on President Biden to bend in debt ceiling talks with Republican s, though the White House and Democrats are showing no signs of letting up from his no-negotiation stance -''The real problem facing the U.S is not the debt ceiling, the problem is the pile of debt they are accumulating, the debt problem will never be solved if Congress keep rising the debt ceiling! ''..could easely argue that rising the debt ceiling will in fact push the US in some sort of debt or usd crisis eventually... -AAPL earnings estimate lowered by analysts for Q2 and Q3, while price headed higher /Thread and chart below, if that's not some kind of weird divergence.. - U.S : Small Business Optimism has fallen to its lowest level in a decade - another 'recession' signal for many -Global copper smelting slides to two-year low in April -Latest quarterly update for Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) showed a net -22.8% of respondents reporting willingness to make consumer loans - Why ChatGPT developer OpenAI is the No. 1 company on the 2023 CNBC disruptor 50 list -Brexit causes 'problems' in rewilding Highlands, Trees for Life says >> another Brexit winner as ''vital EU funding cut off, and not replaced by the Tories'' -Glencore plans Europe’s biggest electric car battery recycling plant ECB's Schnabel sees more rate hikes until core inflation declines too and Premature for Fed to call end to rate hikes with inflation still high , Williams says Markets : -Debt ceiling : in 2011 there were a few days of 'no increase' SPX dived 15% ' and yes to rally again later on on the actual rise.. SPX was 1350.. - Silver to gold ratio : why the long silver trade makes sense - SPX500 levels vs LQD divergence-gap slightly 'disturbing' . 4150-4200 still the top end of the range, all about U.S CPI and eventual guidance it will bring to Powell, recall, we have 70bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 already.. -Copper and other commods still struggling (manufacturing data softer) Warnings signs : GS's Bobby Molavi writes : "...new job openings are the lowest they’ve been since Apr 2021, with Layoffs the highest they’ve been since Dec 2020. We’re starting to see leading indicators of repricing of credit like subprime auto loans falling to around 2% of all auto loans from around 10% in 2018. We saw German industrial production fell more than expectations in March on the back of weakness in the Auto sector. Oil has had its 6th monthly loss in a row. US courts have just seen 57 ‘large’ insolvencies in Q1 for the busiest quarter since 2009". Famed investor Stan Druckenmiller sees hard landing coming | Seeking Alpha Druckenmiller Interview: 10 Key Takeaways (yahoo.com) Global copper smelting slides to two-year low in April - MINING.COM Pressure grows on Biden to bend in debt ceiling talks | The Hill , Timeline of the McCarthy-Biden debt ceiling fight (thehill.com) Peter Schiff: The US Is in a Financial Crisis Worse than ’08 | SchiffGold Why three-day weekends are great for wellbeing – and the economy - Positive News Totally agree! bring it on The most important thing Warren Buffett said Saturday, and it isn't good news for the economy (cnbc.com) Trying to find some positive news but... can only say that valuations are too high - no need to chase this 'market', stay invested in quality balance-sheet and have room to step in on a decent dip when opportunities come your/our way! ASSET MANAGEMENT | Pure Value Metrics Small Business Economics Trends | NFIB Bob Elliott on Twitter: "NFIB survey always a great read into the workings of the economy. Headline confidence number will get lots of attention, but important to know its driven by soft measures which have been pretty wrong this cycle. Hard measures still elevated and show no big slowdown post SVB. https://t.co/9l8NCNTN54" / Twitter Battles Rage Over Biden's Clean Energy Projects as the Size and Cost Jump - Mish Talk - Global Economic Trend Analysis All too often costs to folks and communities become the issue and put the breaks on 'too' populist plans (plans goes through without thinking too much about details...) Thomas Thornton on Twitter: "$AAPL great chart posted yesterday in the Hedge Fund Telemetry Bloomberg chatroom from @Seawolfcap showing AAPL earnings estimates have been lowered by analysts for Q2 and Q3 with this upside move in price raising the multiple even higher https://t.co/x4JL4hkCZ2" / Twitter Rockfall danger: Swiss village evacuated - SWI swissinfo.ch impressive pictures - rock volumes pretty insane - hope all will be well ! UK water company dividends jump to £1.4bn despite criticism over sewage outflows | Financial Times (ft.com) >>>> this is ridiculous !! awful, disgusting in fact >>> UK water companies were responsible for more than 300,000 sewage spills into British waterways last year. House prices "under greatest pressure" in London and south east as rate hikes take their toll (cityam.com) Ryanair places Boeing plane order for at least 150 of largest 737 Max (cnbc.com) that's a big oda! DeSantis signs bill that bans Chinese citizens from buying land in Florida | The Hill The Chinese don't like Florida anyway :-) Why ChatGPT maker OpenAI is the No. 1 2023 CNBC Disruptor 50 company Germany's BaFin warns of nervous time for banks, stress in property markets (cnbc.com) a little late for warnings non? Glencore plans Europe’s biggest electric car battery recycling plant | Financial Times (ft.com) great news ! Silver to gold ratio: why the long silver trade makes sense (thearmchairtrader.com)

" China overtook Germany in auto exports in 2022 and is set to eclipse Japan as the world’s biggest car exporter this year." >>> happened within 2-3years, so swift ! Goldman Sachs joins Barclays in bet against Fed cuts this year GS on SLOOS: "the details are slightly worse (e.g., in the CRE and multifamily residential categories) than the headline C&I tightening measure suggests. Uncertainty remains high regarding the timing of tightening in the current environment." Fed Goolsbee ''credit tightening is under way and recession is a possibility'' BoJ's Ueda ''if price target is met in sustainable, stable manner, BoJ will end YCC & shrink its balance-sheet'' U.S banks : as long as banks don't pay interest rates on deposits (main banks still 10-20bps only..) when MM Funds are 4.5%, CD's 5% and UST say 3%, then record outflows likely to continue.. biggest risk for banks (who don't pay a reasonable interest rate) is when consumer figure they can easily move money around.. to MM funds and so on... SBB : One of Sweden’s biggest commercial landlords plans to halt payment of its dividend after suffering a ratings cut , in another sign the funding squeeze gripping Sweden’s leveraged property sector is worsening Texas may launch its own Gold-backed Digital Currency Charlie Munger: '' I don't think having a bunch of bankers trying to get rich 'leads to great things'' Australia's 30 biggest pension funds increased their investments in key coal, oil and gas producers by 50% in 2022 despite the funds' long-term commitments to net zero carbon emissions, environmental activist group Market Forces said ECB rate increases may not be finished in July, Kazaks warns (he's a known hawk) Yellen says again Treasury will run out of cash by June 1 Saudi Arabia’s $500 billion bet to build a futuristic city in the desert " The EU is reported to be considering sanctions against seven companies from China —something the US has already done but the EU has not. This may damage relations as sanctions are likely to be seen as offsetting photo ops with French President Macron" - UBS Markets : SPX500 same olde levels.. 4150-4200 tops vs 4050 area where all the moving averages are , Relative performance of the Russell 2000 (small caps) vs the S&P 500 since February. Hovering around Covid lows. SEE PICT's point about liquidities below, key ! >>> overall, risk reward for higher isn't great, valuations too high UST curves, some 70bps of cuts priced in 2023, this madness, or 200+ bps of cuts priced by early 2025 USD slightly firmer, Fed speakers today (Williams and Jefferson), U.S CPI tom What shoe is this market waiting for to drop? | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) Bond Vigilantes on Twitter: "Google searches for 'safe bank' and 'money market fund'. The former suggests that the banking sector deposit outflows are driven by a degree of fear, as well as higher short rates (via @MorganStanley). https://t.co/ZePJUhzvqs" / Twitter “…if rate cuts happen this year, it will either be because of the onset of a recession or a significant crisis in financial markets. The gap between the bond market, equity market and the Fed is likely to close at the expense of equities” JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic "the equity market continues to expect the best of both worlds—rate cuts and durable growth. We view the likelihood of both of those outcomes playing out in concert this year as low... equities are priced for an optimistic and lower probability outcome" Morgan Stanley's Wilson KKR posts 26% drop in Q1 earnings, beating expectations (msn.com) - was always going to be a casualty from moving away from zero rates.. Carl Quintanilla on Twitter: "“.. this labor market is more than just tight. It's good. It's high quality .. People try to throw cold water.. by saying.. it's all part-time jobs, or something to do with demographics, or whatever. But.. full-time employment is rocketing past the pre-crisis highs.” @TheStalwart https://t.co/hXRIr6danZ" / Twitter Charlie Munger: I don't think having a bunch of bankers trying to get rich 'leads to great things' - YouTube these 2 legends are so great, charismatic Texas May Launch Its Own Gold-backed Digital Currency | OilPrice.com Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee: 'Credit squeeze is beginning' (yahoo.com) Steve Donzé on Twitter: "We're past $1tr global central bank net liquidity surprise, gradually reverting to trend (dotted line). Crossing trend materially increases equity drawdown risks. https://t.co/YI5L4gkHP8" / Twitter Bob Elliott on Twitter: "The SLOOS ended up better than expected and in line with the picture indicated by the actual credit data I talked about this morning. Vast majority of tightening occurred *prior* to SVB. ‘Crisis’ not causing a crunch following. Here is C&I: https://t.co/HbgAfYVq2K https://t.co/VKoGr7QSSB" / Twitter Bill Gross Advises Buying T-Bills to Bet Debt-Ceiling Issues Will Be Resolved (yahoo.com) Fair enough, risk reward not huge unless you are a FI manager Japan will end yield curve control if stable 2% inflation reached, BOJ's Ueda says - MarketWatch still pretty vague, but there you go - our view remain that this will 'have' to happen sooner rather than later, particularly if Mr Market joins BARX and GS and start to think of not cut in 2023 from Fed SBB Halts Dividend Payment as Sweden Real Estate Concerns Deepen (yahoo.com) Swedish home construction is likely to plummet in the wake of falling housing prices, Nordea Bank says in a report Credit Suisse to operate under own flag after UBS takeover - SWI swissinfo.ch Apple Sells $5.25 Billion in Five-Part Dollar Bond Sale (yahoo.com) Neom is Saudi Arabia's $500 billion bet to build a futuristic city (cnbc.com) GBPCHF needs 1.15+ for anyone to get 'particularly' exited on topside - patience!

Rice production for 2023 is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades , according to Fitch Solutions, let's hope there are some big reserves out there! SNB's Jordan Joins Finma in Defending Credit Suisse AT1 Wipeout Yellen warned there are "no good options" for solving the debt limit stalemate other than Congress lifting the cap , even as Senate Republicans dug in their heels. The Treasury secretary also told ABC that Joe Biden taking unilateral action would provoke a constitutional crisis. Her comments came a day after 43 GOP senators including Mitch McConnell said they'd oppose increasing the ceiling without spending cuts " Corporate buyback announcements continue to boom this earnings season , with the S&P 500 companies announcing almost $200bn worth in the last 3 weeks, and over $300bn in the last 3 months" -DB Texas : An explosion and fire wracked a refinery in a Deer Park industrial complex jointly owned by Mexican oil company Pemex and Shell Chemicals on Friday >>> multiple train derailments, chemical plant explosions, the U.S should spend on infrastructure! Kenya President Says Africa Presidents wont be summoned like kids by World Leaders anymore The recent performance has been very concentrated. 97% of SPX YTD performance comes from 15 stock In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogan's economy U.S Banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending . Small banks account for almost 70% of all commercial real estate loans outstanding/thread Vietnam reported its highest ever temperature of 44.2C over the weekend and the Philippines cut classroom hours after the heat index reached the “danger” zone, reflecting the potentially deadly combination of heat and humidity Swiss lawmakers last week decided that speeches in Parliament can no longer be delivered in Swiss-German – the local dialect that about 65% of the nation speaks "The collapse of four US banks in the last few months with over US$500 billion in combined assets is hard to dismiss , especially in the context of a slowing economy, reined in by policy rates that have risen sharply over the last year and capped by this week’s 25bp hike." - MS Markets : Crude well off recent lows, better data reducing recession fears, and you'd hope Biden is filling the SPR! Bonds : 2y UST yields 'holding' 3.80% last week, U.S CPI next.. >>> 50bps range month-do-date in Sep SOFR, and it's only the 8th Raising rates and raising the debt ceiling, a a pretty toxic mix USD remains under the cosh really, doesn't seem to hold on to any short-term daily rallies , even AUDUSD been doing a little better (finally?), CAD did very well too, MXN continues to strengthen past below 18 area SPX500 held where it should have 4050 area, short covering in few regional banks (talks short selling ban in a market that was too short, as said late last week..) helped improve sentiment/narrative on Friday together with AAPL share buyback/earnings report Commods : seen short term lows ? together with crude ? and still softer USD.. Berkshire Hathaway: Buffett Does Not Want To Buy Occidental Petroleum (msn.com) 5 key takeaways from Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting - Kerry Sun | Livewire (livewiremarkets.com) Big sentiment shift Friday. US CPI next test on Wednesday. | Saxo Market Call (podbean.com) and PowerPoint Presentation (podbean.com) What went right this week? The good news you should know about - Positive News Holger Zschaepitz on Twitter: "#Germany is weighing a reduced power price of 6 cents per kilowatt-hour for certain energy-intensive industries to help manufacturing-heavy econ. Measure expected to cost €25-30bn & last until 2030. Small & medium-sized firms currently pay ~27 cents/KWh. https://t.co/iY6XH44JmN https://t.co/Q0I391ecaf" / Twitter Global rice shortage is set to be the biggest in 20 years (cnbc.com) Lisa Abramowicz on Twitter: "Banks with less than $250 billion in assets account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending. Small banks account for almost 70% of all commercial real estate loans outstanding. Charts and data via Apollo’s Torsten Slok https://t.co/2OEbkUOUGN" / Twitter Goldman: "We expect that the lending standards measure for C&I loans in the Fed’s April Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey tightened by 15.4pt to 60.2, reflecting an increase of 33.3pt to 77.0 for small banks and a more modest increase of 10.3pt to 56.0 for large banks." SNB's Jordan Joins Finma in Defending Credit Suisse AT1 Wipeout (finews.asia) Texas officials tackle, contain industrial plant fire in Deer Park (msn.com) Kenya President Says Africa Presidents wont Be Summoned Like Kids By World Leaders Anymore - YouTube Mortgage refused 'for hosting Ukrainian refugees' - BBC News Surely not, and ''sorry you can't increase your mortgage by Xxxx because you now have a child'' Coronation events today: Prince William and Kate Middleton make unexpected visit to concert queue | The Independent Amazing concert, must admit, light/drone show was spectacular Silvergate short seller says he’s betting against Signature: ‘Binance is next’ – DL News In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogans economy - Lebanon News (lbcgroup.tv) Switzerland: Where Swiss-German is not spoken in Parliament (theswisstimes.ch) Astonished this went through tbh - Swiss lawmakers this week decided that speeches in Parliament can no longer be delivered in Swiss-German – the local dialect that about 65% of the nation speaks USD weak vs most currency pair, here is USDMXN..