EU gives France an ‘F’ grade on spending plans. High deficit puts Paris in breach of EU’s budget rule s. Belgium, Finland and Croatia also singled out France Manuf PMI 42.6 German parliament cancels 2024 budget vote amid political crisis. .. Scholz promises new budget plan, amid spending crisis OPEC meeting pushed back to 30th Nov A Hostage/Prisoner exchange will happen tomorrow at the earliest US mortgage rates dropped sharply, capping the biggest four-week slide in nearly a year and spurring a fresh round of applications to purchase homes Washington blinks as debt costs begin to bite . Increased spending on entitlements and interest could snowball in the coming decades, putting pressure on Washington to act earlier to rein in annual deficits >>> “If interest rates basically stay at their current levels, interest will be the second-largest government program in two years,” Italy PM Meloni could be forgiven for feeling any schadenfreude this week while looking on at Germany’s unfolding budget debacle . A string of fiscal wins for Rome has just coincided w/a crisis rocking Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Berlin after a calamitous court judgment cast doubt on financing plans for Europe’s biggest economy Jobless claims: Initial jobless claims fell to 209k for the week of 18 November, reversing most of the recent rise since mid-October and The final November report of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment suggests that it could take some time for inflation narratives to improve Finland to close all but one Russia border crossing to stop asylum seekers S&P global to update assessment of France rating next week Markets : Many mnarket participants now rising estimates for equity markets into year-end, SPX 4700-4800, low vol, seasonal bid, mainly driven by the Mag7, which are now 30% of SPX Crude a little lower as OPEC meeting got pushed back to next week Equity markets, high valuations not forcing anyone out, so far anyway, lower VIX-vols pushes more systematic buying USDollar struggling, seems market happy to sell rallies/reduce long held long positions, if 10's UST was to break sub 4.35% decisively, market will have another go and sell more USD Israel-Hamas war live: no ceasefire or hostage release before Friday, Israeli and US officials say ( msn.com ) Javier Blas on X: "The OPEC+ delay -- a few notes: 1) At the heart, OPEC is fighting about who pumps how much. Nigeria and Angola, which have struggled to meet their quota, refuse an official lower level for 2024. Leaving OPEC is real, but remote, possibility for Angola; but no for Nigeria | 1/7" / X ( twitter.com ) Scholz promises new budget plans ‘very quickly’ amid German spending crisis – POLITICO Germany financial sector facing dark clouds, Bundesbank warns | Reuters In November 2023, the business climate in France and the employment climate have darkened again - Informations rapides - 297 | Insee EU gives France an ‘F’ grade on spending plans – POLITICO Even deficit hawks doubt Washington can curb debt - POLITICO Meloni’s Italy Tastes Schadenfreude Over German Fiscal Fiasco - Bloomberg US Mortgage Rates Slide Sharply, Reinvigorating Housing Demand - Bloomberg Finland to close all but one Russia border crossing to stop asylum seekers | Finland | The Guardian Far-right leader Geert Wilders wins Dutch election – POLITICO

Israel-Hamas war : four-day ceasefire and release of 50 hostages held in Gaza agreed FOMC Minutes: The Nov meeting minutes was very similar to the last, ''continue to keep options open for further rate hikes and emphasized rates would remain restrictive for some time until inflation is clearly moving down sustainably to target''. Unlike the Sep minutes, there was no indication that another rate hike was likely, QT to continue BoE's Bailey : 'Far too early' to talk about rate cuts RBA (in the minutes) said it lifted its key interest rate this month to reduce the risk of a “larger monetary policy response” in coming months , given the persistence of inflation and the stronger than expected performance of the economy OpenAI Altman, briefly to MSFT, and back, what a saga The Mag 7, have been magnificent YTD - that's for sure, worth noting that by now they provide the highest concentration risk of any period in the SPX500 history >>> Hedge funds have bet over $200bn on the "magnificent seven". Crowding is now the most extreme ever, according to Goldman Sachs (short stock intrerest remains near the lowest levels in history:GS) >>> CTAs purchased $153 billion of global equities over the last 10 days, the highest amount ever recorded NVDA delivers on big earnings , stock has rallied 250% in 2023 though Novo rations Ozempic starter kits amid surge in use for weight loss UK autum statement, government throwing a few goodies, mini tax cuts Markets : 30% of a Fed cut in March '24 priced in and a total of about 90+bps priced in for the whole of 2024, market has about a total of 1% of cuts priced in for ECB too USD index closed below its 200dma for the 1st time since Aug, and snapped back overnight, particularly USDJPY as JPN governmetn slahed its view on the economy, 1st such move in abotu 10months GOLD over $2K makes Platinum look super cheap #XPT U.S equity markets - tech update below from Saxo Uranium +$80 for 1st time in more than 15 years Commodity prices to equity ratio, are at historical lows Crude made a low last week and gradually moving higher again - after inventory build data, SPX refill likely and likely extension of prod cuts from OPEC+ UST 10's holding around key support in yield terms 4.35%, the likes of GS expect U.S fiscal discipline unlikely, and this steepening yield curve ahead in 2024 Technical analysis Nasdaq 100 SP 500 bullish thanksgiving market | Saxo Group ( home.saxo ) Hedge fund herding is worse than ever ( ft.com ) Fed United on Cautious Approach to Future Interest-Rate Hikes, Minutes Show - Bloomberg 20-Year Treasury Auction Was Solid. It’s a Plus for Stocks. ( msn.com ) Althea Spinozzi on X: "🇺🇸Following a strong 20-year UST auction, yields didn't drop dramatically; why? One of the reasons might be that leverage funds have been reducing their short bond position dramatically in the past few weeks and are now the least short since July. ⬇️ https://t.co/hgrrcmXDBo " / X ( twitter.com ) Israel-Hamas war live: four-day ceasefire and release of 50 hostages held in Gaza agreed ( msn.com ) Nvidia (NVDA) Q3 earnings report 2024 ( cnbc.com ) Uranium Prices Top $80 a Pound on Renewed Demand, Disrupted Supplies - Bloomberg PLATINUM Documentary: Mining, Science and History - YouTube intersting docu Treasury Department on X: "Today, @USTreasury announced the largest enforcement action in our history against Binance, the world’s largest virtual currency exchange. This action is a result of Binance’s egregious violations of U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions laws. https://t.co/V4IM0b16H3 " / X ( twitter.com ) 'Far too early' to talk about rate cuts -Bank of England's Bailey | Reuters November interest rate rise was needed to avoid risk of larger future increases, RBA says | Reserve Bank of Australia | The Guardian X loses ad sales, faces blowback after Musk antisemitism controversy ( yahoo.com ) Sam Altman ‘looking forward’ to return to OpenAI; Jeremy Hunt expected to cut taxes – business live ( msn.com ) 'We've halved inflation' and other claims by the PM checked - BBC News German train drivers union rules out strikes over Christmas - The Local German Budget Crisis Deepens With Freeze on New Spending - Bloomberg Search is on for pipeline leak after as much as 1.1 million gallons of oil sullies Gulf of Mexico ( qz.com ) Novo rations Ozempic starter kits amid surge in use for weight loss | Reuters Autumn statement: tax cuts could boost UK economy, but businesses also need more certainty ( theconversation.com ) XPT vs XAU - similar production costs, too cheap WTI crude

The right-wing, self-described “anarcho capitalist” Javier Milei has been elected into power in Argentina Thanksgiving week ahead, NVDA reports tomorrow, FOMC minutes, durable goods, services and manuf PMI's + the usual raft of CB speakers >>> CNH decetn pick up, weaker USDollar overall still 2-3months lows by now..OPEC weekend 'extention of cuts' likely A deal for Hamas to release hostages taken during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel may be the closest yet and would require a multiday pause in the fighting in Gaza , US Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer said Moody's announced Friday it had affirmed Italy's credit rating at Baa3, and upgraded the country's outlook to "stable" from "negative ," citing its significant economic strengths Why the Godfather of A.I. Fears What He’s Built . Geoffrey Hinton has spent a lifetime teaching computers to learn. Now he worries that artificial brains are better than ours Deutsche Bank will take a $350 million loss on a New York City office building they bought in 2014 Microsoft's Satya Nadella: Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past. Using some jargon, r* has risen/M.Zandi Bayer, an iconic company in troubles , shares 12y lows "This is a social earthquake" says Ikea CEO - Sweden's huge gang violence problem Pimco makes bold yen buying move , forecasting Bank of Japan monetary tightening Markets : Price action changes mood and more >>> same time last year, after a rough bear market, everyone was pretty much all-in on the recession for 2023, now after a pretty decent equity rally, everyone is all-.in on soft landing.. USDollar weaker still, positioning way too long , watch 10y UST yields if they break sub 4.35% area, could add to USD downside. #USDJPY picture perfect - chart below Equity markets loving weaker usd, softer vols, weaker Oil etc, seasonal factors helping sentiment too still UST 10y yields support 4.35% Crude WTI held low 70's ahead fo OPEC+ meeting, which will most likely hold on to production cuts BTC loving the election result in Argentina Israel-Hamas War in Gaza: Latest Update on Israeli Hostages - Bloomberg Iran denies involvement in Red Sea ship seizure by Yemen's Houthis | Reuters Javier Milei: Right-wing libertarian wins Argentina election and is congratulated by Donald Trump ( msn.com ) Quite a character ! Who is Javier Milei? Argentina’s new far-right president ‘El Loco’ takes the stage | Javier Milei | The Guardian Pimco Is Buying Yen to Prepare for Tighter BOJ Monetary Policy - Bloomberg Bank of Japan should shun ultra-loose policy to prop yen, Deutsche Bank says ( cnbc.com ) Why Warren Buffett's portfolio moves signal 'caution' for investors ( yahoo.com ) Moody's affirms Italy's credit rating and upgrades outlook ( yahoo.com ) Citibank Has Started Mass Layoffs: Report ( msn.com ) European shares muted after robust week; Bayer tumbles to 12-year low ( msn.com ) German government rows over how to plug €60 billion funding gap - The Local Mark Zandi on X: "The economy is meaningfully less interest rate sensitive than in times past. The tweet thread that follows lays out the case why, but this is a big reason why the economy has avoided recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. Using some jargon, r* has risen. https://t.co/tUUfZLYkzh " / X ( twitter.com ) The Kobeissi Letter on X: "JUST IN: Deutsche Bank will take a $350 million loss on a New York City office building they bought in 2014. Deutsche Bank is reportedly selling the office after their anchor tenant, Bank of America, left. In 2014, Deutsche Bank bought the building for $500 million. The office… https://t.co/OQgFMkznuq " / X ( twitter.com ) Why the Godfather of A.I. Fears What He’s Built | The New Yorker Emmett Shear named new CEO of OpenAI by board - The Verge Beef burgers are back on the menu as demand for vegan food plunges ( msn.com ) Macron in Switzerland: ‘you may not know it, but you are also Europeans’ - SWI swissinfo.ch Sugar prices are rising worldwide after bad weather tied to El Nino damaged crops in Asia ( qz.com ) Spain's re-elected PM Sanchez keep senior ministers in new cabinet ( msn.com ) The violent gang crisis shaking Sweden ( ft.com ) Betrayed: The Truth About Brexit | Byline TV pro or against, it's an interesting watch USDJPY - picture perfect fotr 145JPY initially

BOJ will debate easy-policy exit when inflation nears target - Ueda >>> More below : BOJ's Ueda: BOJ does not have specific plan yet on how it will sell ETFs, he adds that ' weak JPY has positives and negatives' perhaps reminded folks of a 2way risk (market very short JPY/long carry..) Market pricing : after a few low print on inflation and macro data, weaker Oil, Mr Market has now already priced in : 100bps of cut from ECB in 2024 , similar UK and U.S >>> this week : "We went from anticipating the end of hikes, to now anticipating the beginning of cuts.” MS, which is quite aggressive in this view (not as aggressive as UBS!), is looking for 1st FED cut in June 2024, -4- cuts next year and -8- cuts in 2025! Federal Reserve, Board Governors Cook, Kugler and Jefferson said " the size of the balance sheet could decline considerably further before reserves reach the level consistent with the ample reserves operating framework" Walmart as CFO says October trends have made them "pause and rethink the health of the consumer." Eric Rosengren says soft landing is now his base case: "This is about as good an outcome as the Federal Reserve could be expecting , which is a falling inflation rate, an unemployment rate that's a little below 4%" and an economy that's not growing too fast Germany raised VATin restaurants back up to 19% (from 7%.. Iran told US it did not want Israel-Hamas war to escalate WSJ-U.S. Executives get no reassurance from Xi on tougher China Business Environment . Chinese leader makes no mention of trade and investment at dinner with business leaders China battery-grade lithium carbonate prices slide for th 21st day staight and hit a 2y low ECB’s Lagarde: Increasing signs that the global economy is fragmenting into competing blocs Markets : USDJPY - could also be soon introuble, beware short JPY positioning - chart below + crossjpy's lower on lower yields, rate cuts expectations globally, Ueda added a bit of 2way risk in his comments this monring, positioning is heavy short JPY (carry trades etc) UST 10's major test for bond bulls ahead, in yield terms 4.35% was the previous top Oct 2022 and last month again, before we headed for 5% Equity markets enjoying the low yields, rate cuts expectations into 2024 and seasonal support from funds rebalancing NASDAQ100 - time to add/buy more ??? nope - not the time to be greedy-chart, not making necessarilly a case for shorting it, but #timeforahedgingtrade from here GOLD nicely up on these lower rtates expectations AND JPY trength WTI crude low 70's you'd think Biden will be refulling the SPR - and fast BOJ will debate easy-policy exit when inflation nears target - Ueda | Reuters BOJ’s Ueda Says Weak Yen Isn’t Only Negative for Japan’s Economy - Bloomberg More from BOJ's Ueda: BOJ does not have specific plan yet on how it will sell ETFs | Forexlive Investors turn bullish on bonds, rates lower in 2024: BofA survey ( yahoo.com ) investors 'never been this confident bond yields are headed lower' BoA - nice but we may have to start to worry soon when it's so consensus... Forbes on X: ""It is going to be an extraordinarily dangerous year." @SteveForbesCEO spoke about what he's forecasting in 2024 at the #ForbesCIO Next Summit. https://t.co/eZHOkkkPBN https://t.co/5LtNF3M3JK " / X ( twitter.com ) Former Boston Fed Pres. Rosengren: October CPI 'about as good of an outcome' as the Fed could expect | Watch ( msn.com ) Israel Latest: Netanyahu Says Gaza Hospital Hid Command Center ( yahoo.com ) Contrarian 2024 Forecast: Record Household Liquidity Points To Solid Growth & More Fed ( thecarsonreport.com ) Or indeed the growing market sentiment currently ... Walmart Jolts Wall Street With Warning About Risks of Deflation - Bloomberg Germany to raise VAT in restaurants back up to 19 percent - The Local Blackstone borrows to boost lending power of $52bn credit fund ( ft.com ) Bear has sunk 450 million with Italo boutique Kairos - Inside Paradeplatz Tanking Alibaba drags Hong Kong as markets rally fades ( yahoo.com ) Bellweather stock not playing up Walmart (WMT) earnings Q3 2024 ( cnbc.com ) Senior Tory says Suella Braverman wants to act like Putin with hardline alternative Rwanda proposals – UK politics live ( theguardian.com ) Dutch election promises new era and shake-up in politics ( msn.com ) Rebuilding Trust in Expertise by Diane Coyle - Project Syndicate ( project-syndicate.org ) Lagarde: Increasing signs that the global economy is fragmenting ( cnbc.com ) NASDAQ100 - time to add/buy more ??? nope - not the time to be greedy USDJPY - could also be soon introuble, beware short JPY positioning

Soft landing is now 'the' absolute consensus U.S retail sales declined (slightly) in October, as student debt payment resumed ? >>> '' After adjusting for inflation, US retail sales fell 1.6% over the last year, the 12th consecutive YoY decline'' >>> market momentum is here, the buzz/consensus is 'goldilocks sticks, cooling inflation and a strong economy for long enough to prop up market into year-end'' Biden, Xi meeting, some nice soothing words and promises to work on improving communication again, and fighting Fentanyl production! Xi tells US firms China ready to be partner and friend, Biden calling Xi a 'dictator' might not have been the best use of words !!?.. still Xi confirmed that China does not seek spheres of influence and will not fight a cold war or a hot war wiht anyone U.S senate bill on extending debt ceiling : no spending cuts... Taiwan : A joint ticket is forming in Taiwan that may defeat the pro-independence DPP Berlin : opposition leader Merz confirms nuclear operator offered to turn reactor back on for cheap power WSJ- I nflation is falling faster than expected across advanced economies, marking a turning point in central banks’ two-year battle against surging prices UK Bond demand smashes record as investors clamor for yield (£93bn orders for £7bn bonds) German Court deals blow to Scholz govt with budget ruling Fed official (Daly) warns against calling time on rate-rising cycle too soon. US central bank must not claim victory over inflation prematurely, says San Francisco Fed president About those calling for a 'hard landing' in the U.S , which is fair to talk about with nearly 125% of debt/GDP ratio, seems almost inevitable eventually, the real question is whether the hard landing comes through the real economy or the USdollar (or both) - not a call, but part of ongoing discussion with clients on the 'what if's' Markets : Inflation headlines came in softer confirming what everyone wanted to hear, very fast shift to 'goldilocks, soft landing consensus' >>> and now many gunning for a 'March '24 cut form Fed'... might be a little premature...core CPI is still 4% 10's UST support 4.2-4.5% in yield terms , core is still 4% USDollar took an early hit post U.S CPI, for the likes of EURUSD, it stays bullish while above 1.0780-1.0830' area pon weekly basis SPX500, QQ etc, from oversold to overbought (RSI's etc) within 2 weeks, massive HF/CTA short-covering done, classic stuff, consolidation doesn't mean down, trade new higher range, seasonal factors should helpf keep a friendly prie action, bar any new news! The Global Fight Against Inflation Has Turned a Corner ( msn.com ) ‘He’s a dictator’: Biden claims progress in Xi meeting, but deep fault lines remain - POLITICO Xi tells US firms China ready to be partner and friend | Reuters China’s Xi Says U.S. Should Get New Pandas Soon | TIME all good ! US retail sales, producer prices register October fall ( yahoo.com ) Fed official warns against calling time on rate-rising cycle too soon ( ft.com ) Fed's Goolsbee: 'A way to go' on inflation despite 'progress' ( yahoo.com ) German Court deals blow to Scholz govt with budget ruling ( msn.com ) Explainer: How budget ruling will affect German finances, coalition | Reuters UK Pulls in Record £93 Billion Orders for Conventional Bond Sale - Bloomberg Invesco Says It's Time to Enjoy the Spoils of Stock-Market Momentum - Bloomberg Taiwan’s opposition parties to work together for January election | Elections News | Al Jazeera Microsoft reveals Maia AI processor and Cobalt Arm-based chip ( cnbc.com ) Government shutdown bill live updates: Funding clears Senate vote, heads to Biden ( nbcnews.com ) Michael Pettis on X: "1/6 According to Bloomberg, "Private equity firms that amassed more than $1.5 trillion of assets in China in just two decades are now struggling to offload once-promising investments they were counting on for hefty returns." https://t.co/AyyUghIQ1Q " / X ( twitter.com ) Mark Nelson on X: "BERLIN: OPPOSITION LEADER MERZ CONFIRMS NUCLEAR OPERATOR OFFERED TO TURN REACTOR BACK ON FOR CHEAP POWER The offer was rejected by Economy Minister Robert Habeck despite his insistence that German industry would be lost without power available at exactly the price suggested by… https://t.co/lZQf1TxsDx " / X ( twitter.com ) US, EU Seek Steel Deal Amid Stalemate - Bloomberg Rwanda Supreme Court ruling LIVE: Rattled Sunak unveils last-ditch plan to save flagship deportation policy ( msn.com ) wasted time and money, everyone knew it was just a rediculous plan

US House Speaker passes bill to avert shutdown with Democratic support, no surprise, happens every time , It keeps federal agencies open at current spending levels until mid-January Headline CPI lower, good news, inflation is higher still but less fast.... and U.S CPI core is still 4% (easy part done, not only, but largely about energy cost) U.K. inflation fell sharply in October to 4.6% from 6.7% the previous month, hitting a two-year low, core is still 5.7% (from 6.1 in Sep) RRP : The amount of money that investors are parking at a major Federal Reserve facility dropped below $1 trillion for the first time in more than two y ear Non-financial companies in the S&P 500 have a combined $107.7 billion in debt coming due next year, with an average interest rate of 2.8% . Refinancing at current rates would add another $3.09 billion in collective interest expense: Calcbench report JPMorgan's David Kelly on CPI: It is notable that almost 90% of the 3.2% year-over-year increase in CPI for October came from rent, owners’ equivalent rent and auto insurance, categories that are all likely to see much lower inflation in the year ahead Glencore Plc will buy a majority stake in Teck Resources Ltd.’s coal business , ending a months-long saga that transfixed the mining industry and setting the stage for the commodity giant to exit the coal business itself China's industrial output grew 4.6% in Oct YoY, from the 4.5% Sep pace, PBOC said it was keeping the rate on 1.45 trillion yuan ($199.92 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.50% from the previous operation Japan’s economy slipped into a contraction in the third quarter, decreasing at an annual pace of 2.1% as consumption and investments shrank A union representing German train drivers says it is calling its members out on a 20-hour strike later this week as a rancorous round of pay negotiations with the country’s main rail operator gets under way Markets : Huge 'everything rally' mostly due to bad positioning, too many bears (VIX lower was always the tell recently..gammy buying etc), BoJ on hold, PBOC adding, Crude prices lower (ME tensions having no big impact there) and lower headline inflation (mostly expected.. ) SPX500 - chart -back in the previous higher trend >>>> all very similar in DAX (mentioned 11500+ lately as key, EU50stoxx, Dow, NASDAQ pretty near all time highs already! >>>> seasonality factors supporting/supported equity markets last couple of weeks, only questions is whether markets are not frontrunning this already and geeting a little ahead of themselves..! but overall wouldn not be shocked is positoning remain offside and the evrythign rally could well continue for a bit longer! UST 10's - chart - in yield terms 4.3-4.5% is the support USDollar took a decent beating, market positioning far too long USD ...still >>> look to perhaps sell CROSSJPY's which have rallied again on lower yields, a little 'strange' but weak JPN GDP data may well keep BoJ on sideline for as long as they can ! >>>> few charts below to keep things in pictures China's factory output, consumption beat forecasts but property still a drag on economy ( msn.com ) US House Speaker passes bill to avert shutdown with Democratic support - BBC News Japan's economy sinks into contraction as spending, investment decline ( msn.com ) Watch live view of Israel-Gaza border as IDF enters al-Shifa Hospital ( msn.com ) Fed Repo Facility Sinks Below $1 Trillion as Bills Stand Out ( yahoo.com ) The Treasury has issued roughly $1.76 trillion of bills on net, and that’s helped drive their interest rates above the offering yield on the US central bank facility — currently 5.30%. This deluge has also helped push up rates on other money-market assets like private repo. US Companies Opting to Refinance 2024 Debt Face Profit Hit as Higher Rates Bite - Bloomberg Venture Capital Shows Signs of a Performance Turnaround: BlackRock’s eFront ( institutionalinvestor.com ) Let's be all honest here, things will remain volatile one way or another, which bring opportunties, have room to increase risks on a decent dip !... : the views diverge amongst investors as well as Big Banks (MS vs GS view etc) Soft landing will be 'difficult,' says PE veteran ( yahoo.com ) Glencore Wins Teck Coal Business, Paving Way for Its Own Split ( yahoo.com ) Iceland volcano - live updates: Cracks appear in roads amid fears of imminent volcanic eruption | World News | Sky News Huh! pretty nasty stuff UK inflation falls by more than expected in October to 4.6%, lowest in two years ( cnbc.com ) Chelsea FC face new questions over how Roman Abramovich funded success | Roman Abramovich | The Guardian German union calls on train drivers to strike this week in a rancorous pay dispute ( qz.com ) SPX - going back to trend ? other indexes looking similar, most bombed out/rates sensitive sectors reacting in a more powerful way yesterday too EU50stoxx NASDAQ100 10's UST prices AUDUSD - FX been relatively boring, but we keep the view that USD topped around 1.3800CAD, 1.0500 EURO, 1.2100 GBP, USDCNH 7.3500 etc

U.S CPI ahead , where 0.1% up or down difference will keep every economists on the planet on alert for new news..There are some changes on how the U.S govt estimates health insurance costs, which could boost the number. U:S CPI expected to be 3.3% YoY (previous 3.7%), Fed speakers later on : Jefferson, Barr and Goolsbee ZEW : economic exp. for Germany have again increased, currenct assessment remains unchanged at low level, signs that economic weakness has 'bottomed out' Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt Stellantis offers buyouts to roughly half of U.S. salaried workers Gang says ICBC paid ransom over hack that disrupted US Treasury marke t Biden says Gaza hospitals must be protected UK's political reshuffle yet again U.S. Bank Lending declined for the first time in 13 years according to data from SocGen BoA FM survey : investors most overweight bons since the global financial crisis Exxon aims to become a top lithium producer for electric vehicles with Arkansas drill operation Markets : UST 10y techs : ''So far the US 10 year bounces perfectly on the bigger trend line that has been in place since the surge in rates started back in May. If this is the topping out of rates, we need to see more frustration... Watch the 50 day and the longer term trend line closely. We also ask ourselves if this is a bigger head and shoulders formation in the making? 4.5% is the line in the sand level to the downside.'' SPX500 : one amazing fact is that the SPX has not made a new all time high in 2023, if this fails to happen over next 6weeks, this would be the first time since 2012, The NASDAQ's domination over Small Caps has never been greater (the 7's really), USDJPY testing 1992 highs (went all the way to 160+ area - back in 1998 we hit 150 area before Mr Yen intervened) EURCHF bottomed out 0.9500 area - chart below (slight Zew improvement too, shoul help further upside) Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt ( yahoo.com ) Weekly market commentary | BlackRock Investment Institute AI: a mega force driving returns IMF on X: "Higher interest rates have exposed vulnerabilities in some banks, and many more would be at risk during a prolonged period of rate hikes. Read our new blog for more on how to avoid bad outcomes in the banking sector. #GFSR https://t.co/eVXG7PYYPI https://t.co/TQE1pfuNrk " / X ( twitter.com ) A lot of folks talkng about this research so there it is : UBS sees a raft of Fed rate cuts next year on the back of a U.S. recession ( cnbc.com ) >>> Fed to cut 275bps in 2024 and a terminal rate of 1.25 by 2025... >>> clearly IF, massive if, inflation was to be nearer to 2%, rates would be very (too) high...so as always path to inflation is the key ( a lot of if's and but's in these view, which is not too dissimilar to the view of MS, against this you have the likes of GS going for only -1- cut in Q4 2024) Goldman Sachs says world economy to perform better than expected in 2024 ( cnbc.com ) BofA Survey: Investors Bullish on Bonds - Bloomberg Israel-Hamas war live updates: Biden says Gaza hospitals must be protected; Israeli military plans ‘major operations’ in north – NBC New York Does Israel have a road map for Gaza’s future? ( ft.com ) Stellantis offers buyouts to roughly half of U.S. salaried workers ( msn.com ) Novo Nordisk touts Wegovy's value for heart disease patients ( fiercepharma.com ) Exxon to produce lithium for electric vehicles in Arkansas ( cnbc.com ) British fintech Wise reports 234% jump in profit ( cnbc.com ) Gang says ICBC paid ransom over hack that disrupted US Treasury market | Reuters Talks on a landmark treaty to end global plastic pollution are advancing in Kenya's capital | AP News Moderate Tories Believe Rishi Sunak's Reshuffle Shows He Is Embracing The Centre Ground ( politicshome.com ) London politics LIVE: Rishi Sunak says new Cabinet makes 'strong and united team' as David Cameron returns in reshuffle | Evening Standard Hollywood's new union contracts to cost studios up to $600 million: Moody's ( yahoo.com ) EURCHF - bottomed out around 0.9500 area

C hina considers resuming purchases of Boeing's 737 Max aircraft when Xi, Biden meet this week, nothing like a friendly gesture ahead of a big high profile meeting The playbook for 2024 will be slower growth and market pricing in easier policy (GS and MS diff take, as in market), great week for the magnificent 7 last week, a great year in fact, and no need to remind everyone that they are making up 90% of the S&P move YTD , bar any real new news, set-up would appear to be bullish into year-end >>> debt ceiling issue, possibly debt downgrade and next up U.S CPI on Wednesday key for short-term sentiment (no auction this week) Moody's turns negative on US credit rating, draws Washington ire Moody’s tail Risk has Italy on edge before critical rating call . Country is rated one step above junk, with negative outlook. Assessment by Moody’s would be first since Meloni’s budget GOLDMAN: “ The hard part of the inflation fight now looks over .. the heaviest blows from monetary and fiscal tightening are well behind us .. We expect the FOMC to .. cut in Q4 2024 once core PCE inflation falls below 2.5%. We then expect one 25bp cut per quarter until 2026Q2 ..” Uni Michigan survey of 12months inflation expectation rose from 4.2% to 4.4% (expected was lower to 4%) China’s ICBC, the world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberattack that reportedly disrupted Treasury markets The average price of a used Tesla has declined 16 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $39,550 today (-42%) House Republicans look to pass two-step package to avoid partial government shutdow n Iceland braces for volcanic eruption : As state of emergency is declared Markets : In FXland, CROSSJPY's pushing higher still/breaking up again , markets got tired and is challenging the BoJ 'talk talk', Gold : 200dma around $1935 - the hold area for the bulls SPX500 above 4420+ and further shorts will most likely be cut, year-end rally calls will be on the increase again - chart. DAX still in downtrend, but 11500+ and more squeeze coming Bonds pretty steady after Moody's - no real surprise nor impact, U.S CPI key this week though Moody's turns negative on US credit rating, draws Washington ire (msn.com) Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Diverge on Fed Rate-Cut Forecasts - Bloomberg MS sees FFR to 2.4% by 2025 and GS 4.% - Fed is at 3.9% House Republicans unveil plan to avoid government shutdown | AP News Biden and Xi are set to meet Wednesday at the APEC summit | AP News ICBC, the world's biggest bank, hit by ransomware cyberattack (cnbc.com) Algerian president names a new prime minister ahead of elections next year (qz.com) Going downhill: more than 50 Swiss ski lifts are rusting away - SWI swissinfo.ch Iceland braces for volcanic eruption: As state of emergency is declared, what is happening under the surface? | World News | Sky News Tough Swiss housing market drives densification, study finds - SWI swissinfo.ch Once a hydrogen vehicle pioneer, Switzerland lags in the green fuel race - SWI swissinfo.ch Escaped circus lion roams around Italian town before capture - BBC News Surprise! London politics LIVE: Cabinet reshuffle under way as ministers tell Rishi Sunak to sack Suella Braverman (msn.com) yet another reshuffle.. SPX500 DAX - still in downtrend, 11500+ and that would squeeze few more 'bears'

Powell : not confident rates were high enough, but the bar for another hike is pretty high overall, given lag impact of recent hikes still to be digested >>> data dependent, with higher inflation overall, a cyclical downturn beginning to take shape and China trapped in D-flation US government debt is on track to surpass $50 trillion by 2033 . That means $5.2 billion is piling up every day/BoA Mario Draghi delivers downbeat outlook for EU economic growth . Bloc is falling behind its global counterparts, says former ECB president Portugal president calls March snap election, leaves time to pass budget Nvidia will reportedly sell new chips to China that still meet U.S. rules The Xi-Biden summit in San Francisco comes at a critical juncture for the United States and China as the global giants attempt to strike a balance amid strategic competition in an increasingly precarious world Israel has no plans to occupy Gaza after its war against Hamas is finished, Benjamin Netanyahu has said. FT-' Delinquent commercial real estate loans at US banks have hit their highest level in a decade , as higher interest rates, an uncertain economy and the rise of remote working pile pressure on building owners.' SNB's Schlegel says a temporary increase in inflation via rent is possible Markets : 30y auction, biggest tail on record (but , there is always a but-see below and it was a new issue, super-sized in a refunding month). UMich should not matter, unless out of whack relative to expectations.. USDollar picking up strength again/gradually. UST yield much lower last 2weeks and USDJPY On highs SPX500 'topping' around 4380/4400 together with 10's hitting (yield) support around 4.5%. The high(er) cost of capital for longer, will continue to hurt weak balance-sheets, companies without much of an E and definitely those who need to roll debt (if-when too expensive then they will -have- to issue equity..), this is an ongoing process over the next 12-18months still BTC quietly back to 35K VIX on 15 handle - huge delta buying back SPX, purely mechanical, on the yield puke lately (yesterday was always going to be more difficult wiht 30y) Powell reinforces Fed's cautious approach toward further interest rate hikes (qz.com) Nick Timiraos on X: "Powell elaborates on the Fed’s current, conditional pause: We’ve been headfaked before on inflation. Policy should balance the risk of overtightening with the risk of “being misled by a few months of good data” Also: Fed policy review will begin in 2H 2024 and last about a year https://t.co/6cOclI0vxX" / X (twitter.com) Biden-Xi meeting could be last chance to steady US-China relationship (cnbc.com) Ransomware attack on ICBC disrupts trades in US Treasury market (ft.com) Israel agrees to 4-hour daily pauses in Gaza fighting: White House | AP News Mario Draghi delivers downbeat outlook for EU economic growth (ft.com) Croissance : pourquoi l’Europe patine face aux États-Unis (lepoint.fr) Opening remarks by Chair Powell at "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference hosted by the International Monetary Fund - Federal Reserve Board US Debt Will Top $50 Trillion by 2033 As $5.2 Billion Piles up Each Day (businessinsider.com) CNBC on X: "Sens. Mitt Romney and Joe Manchin weigh in on their proposal for a fiscal commission to reign in the $33T in national debt. https://t.co/QnfovrnrHe" / X (twitter.com) Why American manufacturing is increasingly inefficient (yahoo.com) Virgin Galactic stock surges nearly 20% after announcing plan for cost savings (msn.com) The share price soared after the company announced a cost-saving initiative, which includes pausing spaceflight operations next year - this is quite a typical market reaction... UBS Highlights Direction of Travel (finews.asia) Portugal president calls March snap election, leaves time to pass budget | Reuters Demand for global flights falls after Hamas attack on Israel Do airline stocks look like a good bet in 2024? (thearmchairtrader.com) Amazon takes another shot at health care, this one a virtual care service that costs $9 per month (qz.com) What Is the Most Common Question People Ask When Experiencing a Power Outage? - GraysHarborTalk Nvidia will reportedly sell new chips to China that still meet U.S. rules (cnbc.com) Tory clamour grows for Sunak to sack Suella - with even the chancellor condemning her remarks (msn.com) never ending political chaos Some colourful language in there ! but crickey... to be honest it probably was almost just as bad in other countries... Led By Donkeys on X: "What we’ve learned so far at the Covid inquiry (turns out the Tories are terrible). With @GavinEsler https://t.co/qfqxzfHPzI" / X (twitter.com) UK economy flatlines as finance minister decries inflation drag (cnbc.com) Holger Zschaepitz on X: "Good Morning from #Germany, where another green stock gets hammered. SMA Solar falls to a new 2023 low due to an order slowdown which puts risk on 2024 estimates. Despite billions invested in the energy transition, all German green stocks have lost a lot of ground in 2023. https://t.co/Cjx4dnYMw7" / X (twitter.com) >>>> without huge fiscal help from tax payers... it is very tough... 10's UST prices SPX500

On this day in 1989, the Berlin wall came down Over the last 120yrs 98% of all countries where sovereign debt/GDP hit 130% ended up defaulting . (GS) Jerome Powell Urges For A More Flexible Approach To Economic Forecasting: 'The Economy Frequently Surprises Us' BMO: The drop in oil prices is “likely to see next week’s CPI report .. dip back into the low 3’s. .. the Fed couldn’t have asked for much more to help it achieve a soft landing.” C hina is back in d eflation , a sign that demand is not picking up despite numerous s timulus in recent months, China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2 per cent from a year earlier in October, while the producer price index (PPI) fell for the 13th month in a row Chinese health care stocks are back in vogue after a $142 billion wipeout, as signs grow that the worst of a government crackdown is over. US carries out new strikes against facility used by Iran in Syria More Americans are yanking money from their 401(k) plans to pay the bills Short interest in the ~Magnificent Seven~ is at an all time low --BofA Bank of Japan governor warns unwinding ultra-loose policy is ‘serious challenge ’ BoE's Pill: UK monetary policy must stay tight to lower inflation Markets : Chinese deflation, copper prices slightly softer, crude OIL on lows, German data weak, plenty of signs of weakness on the macro picture , tricky and volatile path, market sentiment and views swing around pretty quickly JPY weaker, BoJ keeps on talking, market doesn't care about words, CROSSJPY's higher mainly in FX this week, and some of them looking like breaking up and heading back towards higher levels not seen since 2008 (EURJPY stopped just short of 170..)! back then though it was with EURUSD at 1.6000 ! and USDJPY 120 Equity markets enjoying the idea of softer yields and light talks of light recession , lower Chinese inflation, crude on lows (U.S. CPI next week should be softer!)..Big Techs on highs, MSFT hit a new high this week, familiar looking trend, where NQ follows the UST curve! EUstoxx50 - looks like it wants to break up too - chart Investing amid economic transformation - YouTube Steen's Big picture macro - well worth 11mins of your time Wall Street Analysts Who Cried Recession Are Sounding the Alarm Again - Bloomberg Jerome Powell Urges For A More Flexible Approach To Economic Forecasting: 'The Economy Frequently Surprises Us' (msn.com) One usually says this when one's got it wrong, or indeed things swing around pretty quickly, perhaps signs of loosing bond market 'control', US debt to GDP levels too high etc Americans say the economy stinks. But they’re spending like it’s great (yahoo.com) Elon, Inc. Podcast Is for Tesla, X, SpaceX, Boring Co. and all Musk News - Bloomberg China inflation: October’s consumer, factory-gate price drops do not portend ‘deflationary spiral’, analysts say | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) China Health Care Stocks on Road to Recovery After $142 Billion Rout - Caixin Global More Americans are yanking money from their 401(k) plans to pay the bills (yahoo.com) The number of 401(k) plan participants taking hardship distributions increased by 13% between the second and third quarters/BoA Speech by Governor UEDA in Nagoya (Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy) : 日本銀行 Bank of Japan (boj.or.jp) Central Bank Gold Buying Continued Unabated In September | ZeroHedge Antonio Costa: Portugal's prime minister resigns amid corruption investigation | World News | Sky News US carries out new strikes against facility used by Iran in Syria - SWI swissinfo.ch Ukraine Grapples With the Prospect Waning Western Support (stratfor.com) Watch live from Israel-Gaza border amid fierce fighting in Gaza City | The Independent AI can now outperform humans in 5 key cognitive ways (zmescience.com) Why did Microsoft's stock reach an all-time high on Nov. 7? (qz.com) Microsoft's record high stock price was about more than OpenAI ..The software giant's stock rose for eight days straight to reach an all-time high of $360 on Nov. 7 EU50 - looks like it wants to break up too

Biden, Xi set to steal APEC spotlight with talks to steady ties >>> China's Vice President Han Zheng sees “positive signals” after recent high-level talks with the US IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts The Fed doesn't want to talk about rate cuts, but Wall Street is sniffing out an increasing likelihood of just that. "“Six months ago, if the economy had fallen off the cliff, the Fed’s hands were tied. It couldn’t cut rates. Now it can." -BBG surveys on WallStreet UST's : the supply story is much more important to rates than the various Fed comments, this can of course change, but in the near term, the hike cycle is over and the market is totally focused on UST auctions and corporate issuances Self-driving car technology will still need another 10 years to become a big part of the business, says Uber CEO Coca-Cola, Danone and Nestle have been accused of making misleading claims about their plastic water bottles being "100% recycled" Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month , an amount that has doubled in the past 19 months/BBG, Total US Credit Card debt hit a record $1.08 trillion in the 3rd quarter, rising 16.6% over the last year Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will have "overall security responsibility" in Gaza for an "indefinite period" after its war with Hamas India is proposing reducing import taxes on some electric vehicles from the UK in an effort to clinch a free-trade deal between the two nations by the end of the year Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof ECB can reduce borrowing costs once it’s sure that consumer-price gains are headed back to the 2% target , according to Governing Council member Martins Kazaks FT article, "Can corporate America cope with its vast debt pile?" Markets : U.S equity pushed slightly higher, all main 3 indices closed higher, with SPX, Nasdaq booking their longest winning run since Nov 2021 >>> momentum has slowed hard, few Fed talks today and Powell tomorrow, lower crude prices have helped the camp looking for yet lower inflation (demand low and China data weaker) SPX500 : from oversold to overbought in 10days ... momentum should 'stall' ahead of 4380-4400 area - chart below ( very similar picture in EU50stoxx chart yesterday ) Crude down a few pct again to below $80 (that's the 200dma around here), totally erased any ME premium, down about 20% in 4-5weeks! >>> should be a good time for Biden Team to refuel for the SPR in the U.S. and/or for investors to start thinking at the sector again USD picks up steam pretty easily again, after short-term liquidation of longs last week (together with bonds, equity correction etc) Technical analysis aex25 bel20 cac40 smi20 | Saxo Bank (home.saxo) All technicals ECB Can Cut Rates When Clear Inflation Beaten, Kazaks Tells TV3 (yahoo.com) Wall Street Traders Are Suddenly Dreaming of the Fed Cuts They Crave - Bloomberg Israel-Gaza latest: Hamas leader 'surrounded in bunker', Israeli minister claims - as Netanyahu says 'HQs, tunnels and bases destroyed' | World News | Sky News IMF upgrades China's 2023, 2024 GDP growth forecasts (yahoo.com) Mohamed A. El-Erian on X: "From the @FT article, "Can corporate America cope with its vast debt pile?" In addition to capturing current and future challenges associated with the change in the liquidity regime, these charts highlight the need for growth. Growth is by far the best way to deal with higher… https://t.co/SHI40Bghnu" / X (twitter.com) Biden, Xi set to steal APEC spotlight with talks to steady ties (yahoo.com) 3 warning signs for Biden: Yahoo Finance-Ipsos poll We wanted to go deeper in our survey and find out specifically why voters are so sour on the Biden economy. Inflation is clearly part of it, but inflation has improved substantially during the last year, while Biden’s approval rating has not. Something else seems to be weighing on voters. Here are three warning signs that emerged in our survey: inflation, recession, job market booming, but Factbox-US Election Day results: Governor races, abortion rights and more (msn.com) Millennials are struggling with credit card debt, NY Fed study finds (yahoo.com) Coca-Cola and Nestle accused of misleading eco claims - BBC News Uber earnings report Q3 2023 (cnbc.com) Shares hit 1y highs Germany agrees to consider UK-style plan on processing asylum abroad - BBC News Benko-Gate: Bear loan breathtaking - Inside Paradeplatz UBS: Integration Costs Prompt Quarterly Loss (finews.asia) they would or should 'kitchen sink it' in 2024, all redundancy and restructuring costs up-front.. Drought and shrinking herds push US beef prices through the roof (yahoo.com) Judge Chutkan Denies Donald Trump His Wish (newsweek.com) SPX - from oversold to overbought in 10days... momentum should 'stall' ahead of 4380-4400 area Copper - been pretty rangy - China picking up steam (too many bears?..IMF ups forecasts on growth..) ... time to have a look again ?

Huge Bond short covering rally lost momentum yesterday and reversed about 10bps in the 10y UST, remains volatile ! Kashkari perhaps helped bring back a slightly more cautious view on Fed, we do have a the 17th Nov deadline looming again on debt ceiling, a Fed pause does not equate to an easing in policy Kashkari said it’s too soon to declare victory over inflation, despite positive signs that price pressures are easing RBA raised by 25bps , mostly expected/priced in. AUD fell in the wake of the decision, slightly softer language, but more importantly weak China data >>> “Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and is proving more persistent than expected a few months ag o,” Bullock said. The central bank had received fresh data since its August meeting and “the weight of this information suggests that the risk of inflation remaining higher for longer has increased” Fed report shows US loan officers see tighter credit, weaker demand Druckenmiller digs in on criticism of Yellen , disputes her math, saying her department is defending itself with faulty arithmetic Australian PM Albanese hails progress with China after Xi talks China’s exports fell by 6.4% year-on-year in October in $ terms, FDI into China fell below zero in Q3, for the first time on record Swiss unemployment rate is 2% - slightly lower than the 2.1% expected Citizens Bank was a small state-chartered bank. Its loan portfolio was focused on “commercial and industrial loans,” King’s Speech today , Charles to set out Rishi Sunak’s ‘vision of a better Britain’ ECB's de Guindos expects low growth or economic standstill in Q4 in eurozone P BOC's official Gold reserve rose to 71.2 mln Oz at end-Oct , rising for 12th straight months UBS posts its first quarterly loss in almost six year s, as the ongoing integration of Credit Suisse drags on the Swiss lender’s performance Citi considers 10% job reduction in major units Solar panel advances will see millions go off grid, scientists predict “I think we will” have a recession in 2024 says Marc Lasry, CEO of Avenue Capital Group. “That’s the only thing that's going to force the Fed to lower rates.” Markets : VIX, bonds, equity markets moved a LONG way VERY quickly, positioning was to skewed one way , now much cleaner, will be harder for markets to push on from here USD catches a bid last 12hours as the 'peak rates' gets questioned again (short-term momentum stopped in bonds, usd and eq) EUstoxx50 - back to top of downtrend resistance - chart below - UST 10y yields down 13 bps from Thursday highs...and up 13 bps from Friday lows - still too volatile really, although this 'is' the new normal - higher vol. Only if/when bond markets really calm down will markets breathe for more than a few days or week (MOVE index key) Crude prices still under pressure on weak Chinese data Heard frequently in markets : "We've never had a period where the data is so noisy and volatile. Every single central banker is finding ways of saying they don't know or are not sure Druckenmiller Digs In on Criticism of Yellen, Disputes Her Math (yahoo.com) Bond yields signal the end of the new normal Fed’s Kashkari Says Too Soon to Declare Victory on Inflation - BNN Bloomberg Fed report shows US loan officers see tighter credit, weaker demand (yahoo.com) Iowa bank failure tied to bad trucking loans (yahoo.com) RBA interest rates: Reserve Bank hikes cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% | Interest rates | The Guardian Citi considers 10% job reduction in major units: report | Banking Dive Australian PM Albanese hails progress with China after Xi talks - BBC News George Magnus on X: "I think shocking only if it wasn’t on one’s radar. But the signs have been there, viz the precipitous drop in the last 4-6 qtrs. Some bigger firms are still putting money in eg auto firms for whom fight> flight. But sign of the times…." / X (twitter.com) China Extends Run of Gold Buying That’s Helped Support Prices - Bloomberg Israel-Hamas war live: Israel to have ‘security responsibility’ for Gaza when fighting ends, says Netanyahu (theguardian.com) Israel-Hamas war live updates: Latest news on Gaza conflict (cnbc.com) China trade data for October 2023 (cnbc.com) New Delhi to restrict use of vehicles to curb air pollution | Reuters UK house prices end six-month losing streak: Halifax | Reuters WeWork goes bankrupt in battle to bear down on debts (msn.com) Been on the card for a while, no surprise, but fair to say it sounded like a great idea at the time to be honest, but built on cheap debt, far too much debt! that acted like a disease! China hasn’t been this scary for investors in 25 years (yahoo.com) It's complicated, but maybe a time when long-term contrarians take notice... UBS on X: "In our first full quarter since the Credit Suisse acquisition, we’ve delivered underlying profitability and maintained strong client momentum while executing on our integration plans at pace. Hear more from UBS CEO Sergio P. Ermotti on our third quarter results. https://t.co/bKiof1GEAG" / X (twitter.com) Solar panel advances will see millions abandon electrical grid, scientists predict | The Independent #URA - highly volatile, it is a popular view that nuclear is a must have still going forward, obviously we are nowhere near the pre Fukushima levels CNBC's Fast Money on X: "Is the uranium trade about to go nuclear? @Sprott Asset Management CEO John Ciampaglia shares his take on why the red-hot commodity is headed even higher https://t.co/tohTJNZSBy" / X (twitter.com) Eustoxx50